Episode Transcript
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(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 340 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
That means we are halfway through our work week and
(00:40):
halfway through the 2nd to last week in the month of August as
summer continues to wind down a bit.
But that's OK because this is myfavorite time of year.
I'm not a huge fan. My wife loves it.
But the heat, the humidity, you know, the, the summer months,
they're too hot. I like the fall when it cools
down a bit and you start to get some, some cooler nights.
You don't have a air conditioning bill through the
(01:01):
roof if you're like me in the outskirts of Boston because it's
been a hot summer. And then you get the leaves
changing. But more importantly, aside from
the cool weather, you get some football returning in your life.
So very much looking forward to week one of the NFLI.
Did want to mention and reiterate the fact that I did
partner with Splash Sports, which is the number one private
(01:23):
contest website in the country. And I'm very excited about this
because if you bet on sports, you're probably like doing
contests. Obviously Survivor pick comes,
there's a lot of different ones.But now that I've partnered with
Splash Sports, you can enter some of my contests.
So I talked about it yesterday. If you want to go to my Twitter
page at Josh under score Insights, it's a pin tweet.
(01:43):
But if you guys would like to join the Applebaum NFL Survivor
pool, it's a $25 entry. We've already had a bunch of
sign ups yesterday. So I'm excited about you guys
jumping in, tells me you're interested.
But 25 bucks, you could win $11,250 if you are the ultimate
survivor. And I'm hoping that someone, I
know someone on the pod wins that big amount of money.
(02:06):
And then also I have a college football.
The what is it the Applebaum CFBATS pick em contest.
Also a $25 entry fee. Winners can get, you know, like
4003 thousand 2000. A lot of great prizes there.
The top ten winners will get paid out and that'll focus only
on picking five games a week involving top 25 teams.
(02:29):
So I would love for you guys to join again, this isn't, you
know, Circa Survivor, but then again, Circa Survivor, it cost
$1000 to enter. That's a little, little pricey
for a lot of us, including myself.
So 25 bucks, throw your hat in the ring.
I'd love for you guys to join some of these Splash Sports
contest. And again, I'm really excited to
partner with them because my buddy James Santor just joined
(02:51):
Splash Sports and my buddy Daniel Childs, who I just met
recently, he does a great job working for for Splash Sports.
So again, any rules details, if you want to click that link
that's pinned to my profile at Josh under score Insights on
Twitter, you get all the fine details there.
But I'd love for you guys to join these contests.
So looking forward toward today,guys, We do have a three pack of
(03:13):
MLB sweats, 14 game slate here. So I found a few games that
caught my eye, including some really good sharp line moves and
one game that overlaps with a really good sharp Mush and Robo
Jackson. Best bet pick from our friends
at Juice Reel. So as always, a three pack.
Let's try to go 2IN1 eek out a winning day.
Now looking toward yesterday guys, that's exactly what we
(03:34):
did. 2 in 1 + 0.39 units got a winner there with the Phils.
They had a 4-1 lead. They coughed it up.
But then shout out to JT Rail Muto, the catcher there for the
Phils hit a bomb to give us thatwin late.
And then also the Diamondbacks, they were down early and Lourdes
Guriel junior had a huge two outRBI double to give us the win
(03:55):
there. And the D backs pen did their
best to cough up the lead and blow it.
But thank God they're able to nail down that win for us.
And the only loss was the Red Sox.
And Oh my God was that a frustrating game.
Did anyone watch the Red Sox last night?
They end up losing the game of course, which is obviously the
most important thing for us. They lost 4 to 3, but we beat
the closing line. That line move further toward
(04:17):
the Red Sox. And if you watch the game, they
left 13 men on base. They had bases loaded in the
8th, 9th and 10th innings and didn't score a single run.
And if you were like me, while the Red Sox win total and maybe
bet them last night, there was achance for them in the bottom of
the tenth to tie the game up. There's a family ball sack, fly
to center field. And instead of sending one of
(04:39):
the fastest runners on the team home, Nate Eaton, the third base
coach says, no, we're not going to we're not going to challenge
Colton Cowser. Did you guys know how amazing of
a of an arm Colton Cowser has? No, I didn't know either because
he doesn't threw it wide. Red Sox would have scored and
tied the game. Instead, their idiot third base
coach did not send the runner there to to tie the game.
(05:00):
So idiot third base coach Kyle Hudson.
Thanks, buddy. I think you owe us a beer and
you should you should refund allof our bets.
I'm just kidding. Obviously not.
It's not going to happen. But third base coach, complete
stupid move to cost us a game last night.
But I will never complain about a winning night.
So 2 and 1 + 0.39 units, let's see if we can reinvest that into
(05:21):
today and hopefully produce a winning day.
Now for today's pod, I might go a little quicker than usual
because I do have a doctor's appointment.
So I want to kind of get this out early, get it available to
you guys, and then we'll have our sweats here for tonight.
So with that being said first, but on the board for me, let's
go to a 7:15 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the Chicago White
(05:42):
Sox visiting the Atlanta Braves.So setting the stage here, this
is the rubber match of a three-game interleague set.
The White Sox who are 45 and 81 on the year, they took the
opener 13 to 9 came through as a+ 175 row dog.
Then the Braves 57 and 69 they bounce back with a big 11 to 10
come from behind victory yesterday came through as a -165
(06:05):
home favorite. So for the inter league series
finale tonight, the White Sox are going at the lefty Martine
Perez one and two 3 point O 9 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Braves are going to counter with ready Hurston
Waldrup 3 and O one point O2 ER as kids been great.
He's he's brand new to MLB, but he's won all three of his first
starts and been really good, knock on wood.
(06:26):
And also he's got a great name, Hurston Waldrup.
That's a killer name right there.
Anyway, breakdown for this one. We open the Atlanta Braves
around a -, 175 home favorite. And we've now seen the Braves
with Chicago around plus 145 on the on the backside.
But we've pretty much seen only line movement toward Atlanta.
So the Atlanta Braves have gotten steamed up -175 up to
(06:49):
-190 some shops even as high as -195 Now I jumped on the Atlanta
Braves at -185 at ESPN. Bet you should still be able to
get that number. I don't know how long it'll stay
there, but that is the best price currently.
So you can look at it one of twoways.
You know, good sign here. The line keeps moving toward
Atlanta. Tells you smart money continues
(07:09):
to hit the Braves, even though that number gets a little more
expensive. Obviously, downside is if you
haven't played it yet, you're laying a -, 190 -, 195.
But I will say, hey, those of you who support the team and get
those all systems go best bet picks for $4.99 a week at Juice
Rail, you would have gotten that-185 So let's go Braves.
(07:30):
Aside from the line move, look at the splits that look really
good on Atlanta at DraftKings, 85% of bets, 90% of dollars.
So Pro and Joe low bets, higher dollars at DraftKings.
And then at Circa, I really likethis one.
Only 50% of money line bets, but84% of money line dollars.
A really good low bets higher dollar split, especially out in
(07:51):
the the desert. Now Atlanta's lighting up some
system matches for me. Both teams below 500, which is
the case here, The home favoriteoff a win is 67 and 40 this
year, 63 percent, 3% ROI. And then also home favorites off
a win getting line movement in their favor and they made the
playoffs the previous season. Atlanta would match here as
well. Those teams are 150 and 8165
(08:13):
percent, 3% ROI. Braves would have that
additional interleague series value for a favorite, with the
lack of familiarity typically benefiting the better team who's
expected to win, which would be the Braves.
You also have the Braves with the better bats.
They're hitting 245 on the year,143 home runs, 556 runs scored.
(08:35):
They just got Ronald Acuna back,and Michael Harris has been
lighting it up as well. Chicago, meanwhile, hitting only
231 on the year, 125 homers, 490runs scored.
I mentioned this kid, Hurston Waldrup, who's been really good.
He has made three starts and giving up one earned run or less
in all three starts. Hopefully kids pitching well.
(08:56):
An element of surprise. White Sox never faced him
before. Meanwhile, Martine Perez, he's
been really good at home on the South Side, 1.93 ERA, but on the
road 4.82 ERA. Braves also have been played
pretty well recently. Again, they had high
expectations. They really struggled now kind
of. They got nothing to lose and
they're playing well. They're eight and two over the
(09:17):
last 10, hitting 297. White Sox are three and seven
over their last ten, hitting 258.
Chicago, meanwhile, only 19 and 45 on the road this season.
That is the third worst record on the road in Major League
Baseball. So open kind of chalky.
It's become even chalkier. But we got a line move, good bat
(09:37):
splits, good system matches and I want to back I I'll be honest,
I never heard of this guy until today, but I did some research
on him. I want to back this kid Hurston
Waldrop. So don't let us down, Waldrop.
I got the Atlanta Braves on the money line.
You can still get them at ESPN bet -185 again, a lot of shops,
though. Creeping up -190 -, 195.
But let's go Braves. Next one for you, Texas Rangers
(10:02):
at the Kansas City Royals. This is a 7:40 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch setting the stage for this one.
The Royals are 65 and 61. They've taken the first two
games of this four-game set. They won the opener 4:00 to 3:00
as a -, 125 home favorite. And then they won again
yesterday, 5 to 2 as a -105 homedog rematch for tonight.
(10:24):
Rangers, who are 62 and 65, theyhaven't officially announced
their starting pitcher. I saw some stuff on Twitter that
it might be Kumar Rocker, the righty.
He's four and five, 5.74 ERA. I've also seen some stuff on
Twitter where if it's not Rocker, it might be just a long
bullpen game for the Rangers. On the other hand, we do know
the Royals are going to go with the lefty Noah Cameron.
(10:46):
He's seven and five, 2.47 ERA. So what do you see across the
market here? Well, initially when we thought
it was Rocker, it was going to be or we didn't really know.
I guess who is going to be for Texas.
The Rangers actually open as a favorite.
They were -125 on the road, Kansas City around plus one O 5
at home. But ever since that time with
again, Texas pitcher up in the air, there's been nothing but
(11:08):
steam on the Royals. Give me the Royals, baby.
They're red hot. They've won seven of their last
eight. We've seen Kansas City go from a
plus one O 5 home dog all the way to a -, 120 home favorite.
And when I wrote about this gamefor the Sharp Report, I jumped
on the Royals at -115 Now I'm seeing the Royals as high as
-130 -, 135. So tells me we got even further
(11:32):
smart money going with Kansas City.
So I think right now your best price might be like -125 at
Caesar's. But again, good sign the sign
keeps getting steamed toward Kansas City.
Now aside from this dog to fave line move which we love, got
some good splits on the Royals. At DK 65% bets, 90% dollars.
At Circa over 90% of money line bets in dollars around the
(11:55):
Royals. So both DraftKings and Circa
showing a good one way pro and Joe split in favor of the home
team. Now I do have 4 system matches
lit up on Kansas City. Short home favorites -140 or
less off a win getting line movement in their favor. 56 and
35 this year. 62 percent, 11% ROI since July 1st.
(12:18):
So it's been really good, especially close recently.
Then if we look at favorites offa win with a winning record, who
made the playoffs the previous season and getting $0.05 of line
movement or more in their direction, those teams are 144
and 7366% with a 4% ROI this season.
So that's another good system match lit up here on the Kansas
(12:39):
City. Aside from the line move in the
system matches here lighting up on Kansas City, we also have
Cameron who's pitched really well, 2.6 O ERA and three August
starts. He's only giving up five earned
runs in 17.1 in each pitch in Kansas City.
Meanwhile, they are 6 and one inCameron's last seven starts.
Meanwhile, with the lefty cameraon the bump, the Rangers only
(13:01):
hitting 224 against lefties. That ranks 27th in baseball,
almost dead last. We look at just recent
performance as well the Rangers are.
We look at the Royals. They're eight and two over their
last 10 games trying to fight for a playoff spot.
They have a 263 batting average with a 2.96 ERA.
Meanwhile, Texas only two and eight over the last 10 games,
(13:24):
hitting 235 with a 5.69 ERA. I look home Rd.
Kansas City decent at home 35 and 29 Texas just 25 and 39 on
the road. They've really struggled so kind
of in the air here not knowing what's who's the starter is
going to be for Texas. Maybe it's Kumar Rocker if you
have the option here and it's unavailable, you know TBD don't
(13:46):
know who's going to pitch for Texas.
You could make this an action play, almost always go listed
pitcher, but with this guy in the air, I made an action play,
which means we're just betting it regardless of who starts for
Texas. So I got text, I got the Royals.
I should say at -115 again, you get those juice, real best bets.
You would have gotten that play earlier at a good price, but
(14:08):
even now around -125 -, 130, shop around, get the best
number, some books even like -135 but I'm going to go Royals
in this one. So let's go KC last bet of the
night. I'm staying up late 9:40 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, the San Francisco G men at the San
Diego Padres now setting the stage here.
(14:30):
These NLS foes have split the first two games of this
four-game set the Giants who are61 and 65.
They won the opener four to three came through as a + 125
row dog. Meanwhile, the pods who are 70
and 56, they bounce back with a 5 to 1 win last night came
through as a -, 190 home favorite.
So pitching match up here for tonight out in San Diego, we
(14:52):
have the Giants going with Landon Roop, the righty.
He's seven and six, 3.45 ERA. Meanwhile, the pods are going to
go with the lefty JP Sears. They picked him up at the
deadline with Mason Miller from Oakland or from the A's I should
say. He's seven and ten, 5.12 ERA.
So what do you see across the market?
Well, the pods open this game around a -, 140 -, 145 home
(15:16):
favorite San Fran around a + 125row dog, and you've seen nothing
but movement toward the dads. Let's go, fathers, baby.
San Diego's gotten steamed up -145 up to -155 some shops even
as high as -160 I jumped on the dads at -152 at FanDuel.
Aside from the Steam, we have some good splits on the Padres,
(15:38):
especially at Circa out in Vegas.
And I always like to see a good sharp Circa split because that
tells me a book that caters to wise guys is taking in heavy
smart money. That's basically, you know, the
clientele of people who bet at circa.
Yes, there's average Joe's, but there's also quite a few pros
and professional wise guys. But at circa 80% of money line
(15:59):
bets, 96% of money line dollars on the dads.
So nice low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the PODS
system matches here. Couple that jumped out to me
favorites off a win winning record made the post season
$0.05 of line movement or more, 144 and 7366% on the season, 4%
(16:20):
ROI and that also just matched with the Royals, which we just
talked about. Then if you look at the pods in
particular in the spot, they're 31 and 1666% nine percent ROI as
a home favorite. That's the third best home
favorite in baseball and when their home favorite with a line
move so last at bat home field advantage expected to win in the
(16:42):
market is moving in your favor. The pods are 18 and 869 percent
15% ROI. San Diego would have that
classic additional betting system value as a favorite low
total correlative betting play told this one is 8.
So fair amount of expected run scored more likely to come from
again quote UN quote. The better team was favored to
(17:02):
win Padres rating 254 against righty is that's the 6th best in
baseball. The Giants against lefties
hitting 212. That is dead last worst in
baseball. G men 31 and 32 on the road.
San Diego 39 and 21 on the road.One of the better home teams in
baseball. So we got a good sharp line
move, good splits system matchesand then little cherry on top, 2
(17:26):
cherries on top 21% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice
rail. So 21% more of the sharper
winning players going with the pods.
And then also this is one of thetwo official Robo Jackson best
bet picks here with San Diego. So add it all up, guys.
I'm staying up late. I'm sweating the dads.
Let's go fathers. I got him at -152 at FanDuel.
(17:49):
So it Braves, Royals and Padres.Let's again try to get 2 out of
three tonight. So that about does it for
episode 340 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives and all.
You got a lot going on. It's the dog days of summer.
(18:10):
It's getting busy here, back to school if you got kids or nieces
and nephews or whatever. But you guys keep tuning in and
we keep grinding together and that really means a lot to me.
So if you do enjoy the pod, would you please consider giving
it a five star review on Spotifyor iTunes?
Maybe click that follow button or leave a nice review or
comment or recommend the pod to a friend.
(18:31):
That also mean a lot to me. Next, if you enjoy this style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
focusing on the market, what it's telling us, taking a
contrarian approach, looking at line movement, split system
matches. If the style of betting has kind
of turned a light on for you in terms of providing A blueprint,
a way to attack the market, a guiding light of course.
(18:53):
And maybe you want to learn moreabout data-driven betting.
You want to let me know you appreciate the insights on a
daily basis. Or maybe you have a friend or
someone you know who maybe wantsto get into betting and doesn't
really know where to begin. Or maybe they bet and they lose
a lot and really just throw darts and bet based on what they
think will happen. You know, you should do, you
should go to Amazon.com and typein the everything guide to
(19:14):
sports betting and then type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
You can even buy them together. Those are my two books.
The everything guide. Fantastic for providing that
data-driven model, how to go contrarian, how to identify
smart money as well as the NFL Sharp betting playbook, which is
specifically geared toward data-driven betting for the NFL.
So pick one up or both. Give him a five star review.
(19:37):
Keep tweeting me or photos of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
We're still #1 new release in sports gambling on Amazon.
So that is awesome. And if you want to leave a nice
review, five star review with a good comment on Amazon, I would
very much appreciate that. And then you're going to bring
one or both of those books to the sports book.
I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and
(19:58):
we'll sweat the Braves, the Royals and the pods together
tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
apps. Rhythm, great for their AI
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Juice Reel, of course, great fora multitude of reasons.
But if you want to support the pod, it's free.
It cost you nothing to listen everyday if you want to tip your
(20:18):
podcast so you can go get that $4.99 a week best bet package.
From the juice reel app. So you get all these plays, you
get them a little bit earlier, like Kansas City or or Atlanta
at a better price. You also get the robo Jackson
best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays,
the shop for the best sign futures.
So download rhythm, download juice reel, give them a five
(20:39):
star review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
page? If you don't, you need one.
You got to know the basic, you know, basic amount of
information like what games can I bet on today?
What are the start times, the live scoring, the live in game
wagering odds? How do I track the line
movement? What did the line open at?
Where is it now? Pull up the line history,
identify steam when they get theodds get lit up in red.
(21:02):
Shop for the best price. Always get the best number.
That's going to be huge when we get to football.
Getting hooks, getting on or offa key number.
But if you're looking for a liveodds page, the best one around
is odds logic. So if you want to give it a
shot, 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month of service, you
can use this special link, logic.com/josh 123.
(21:26):
So that about does it for episode 340 on a hump day of the
ASG pod. As always, guys leave you with
two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata in
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
the Nash in my neck of the woods.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
(21:47):
down. Or Billy Walters sends his
number runners with lowest juicepossible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me. Show me a nice Phil's ticket, a
nice D Backs ticket. But man, the stupid idiot Red
Sox keeping us from a sweep. But either way, you guys can't
complain about a winning night. So reinvest it, put it back into
(22:10):
tonight, see if we can get a little win streak going.
As always, guys two and one, oneand two, three and OO and three.
Whether hot, cold, coming off a great night, a terrible night.
Just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, stay
even keeled whenever as good as we think when we're hot,
whenever as bad as we think whenwe're cold.
Just going to keep grinding thatdata-driven model, which goes a
little something like this against the public with the
(22:33):
house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
So have a great Wednesday, everybody.
Let's get some winners on the diamond here for tonight and
then we'll be we'll be right back at it tomorrow for episode
341 of the All systems go sportsbetting podcast powered by
rhythm. Good luck, everybody.
(22:54):
Have a great Wednesday night. And oh, by the way, I mentioned
it earlier, but go sign up for the Applebaum NFL survivor and
the college football pick em contest.
Again, you can check that pin tweet for the links to sign U on
my Twitter page Josh Insights. Well, good luck everybody and
I'll see you tomorrow.