September 1, 2025 • 29 mins
In Episode 343, Josh dishes out a best bet for tonight's TCU-North Carolina College Football game. Plus a discussion about Week 1 NFL betting systems and matches.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 343 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, happy 1st of September.
(00:40):
That's right. Feels like summer is pretty much
officially over. It's feeling a lot like fall.
If you're in New England like me, starting to get cooler
temps, feels like the leaves arestarting to change.
And you know what that means, guys?
It is our favorite time of year.It's the busiest time of year.
It's football season. It's officially upon us.
We do have a lot to get to on today's podcast.
We have a primetime matchup, TCUand North Carolina, pretty nice.
(01:04):
We got a Monday Night Football game.
It's not NFL, it's college. So shout out to Bill Belichick
and my Belichick and my old friend Michael Lombardi, who I
used to work with for I think itwas like 4 years on the Lombardi
line. They're making their debut here
for North Carolina and I got to play on this one.
It's kind of right up my alley in terms of what we look for,
trying to stay true to the line movement, the splits, the system
(01:26):
matches. So do have a best bet here on
TCU against North Carolina. And then also we got to talk NFL
Week 1. Officially, it's here.
This is Week 1. So now we're going to get into
the routine of betting NFL on a weekly basis as well as college.
So I do want to talk about #1 some Week 1 betting systems.
Now, hint, hints. If you've ever done some NFL
(01:48):
seasons with me before, whether it was a previous podcast or my
write ups for VSN, you know, I like to bet a lot of dogs when
it comes to Week 1. So I'm gonna give you some dog
system matches. I got 12345 dog systems that
have done very, very well historically.
And I'm gonna give you some system matches.
What teams are taking in smart money and these system plays.
So 3 in particular I'm excited to talk about.
(02:10):
And of course we're going to talk TCU and UNC.
So it's going to be 1 best bet for tonight, the college game.
But then we got to start our prep for Week 1 of the NFL and
man, it is nice to have footballback in our lives.
Now before we get to our our play for tonight and our
breakdown for Belcheck's debut and talking NFL of course, I
want to say it feels good to be back because I haven't seen you
guys in a while. I was off last week, although I
(02:33):
still wrote my sharp reports. If you follow the all systems go
best bets officially from the Juice Reel app.
You could have gotten the plays while I was gone, but I spent a
week on Cape Cod with the family.
Specifically. We had a Airbnb or Verbo VRBO
house which was awesome, right next to Skakeit Beach in
Orleans. So you got to go kind of further
(02:53):
up the coast and on your way to Provincetown and it was me, my
wife, my mom and dad, my sister,my brother-in-law, my 2 nieces,
my aunt. We had my other aunt and uncle
visit and it's really one of thebest times of year.
So unfortunately you didn't get any pods last week because I was
too busy soaking up the rays on the beach and eating seafood and
lobster rolls and having a grandold time.
(03:14):
But it is great to be back and Ido apologize, no pods, but I'm
feeling refreshed, ready to go. And sometimes you got to
recharge the batteries right before you get to obviously the
busy part of the year. But with that being said, we did
have a Rhythm live stream that Iwas Co host my buddy Cade, which
is now every Thursday. So hope to see you guys there.
It's just a live Twitter stream.We will have some more graphics
(03:35):
and cut ups and everything kind of lined up here.
So you can always catch that every 6:00 Eastern Time Thursday
night. But we did some plays that cash.
So maybe you played South Florida against Boise State.
Everyone playing Boise line keptdipping towards South Florida.
They won outright. How about Cincinnati getting 7?
Everyone in the world was on Nebraska.
Primetime game at Arrowhead, butthat line pretty much stayed.
(03:57):
Line freeze or reverse line movetoward Nebraska.
I also got into a Twitter beef about RLM not being real.
When I try to explain it, peoplestill don't get it.
So you can check my Twitter for some entertainment at Josh under
Score Insights today. But then Ohio State, hey, we did
see a move toward Texas, but that was a buy low spot on Ohio
State. They're a contrarian play.
I did have a system match to tworanked teams to take the home
(04:20):
favorite. Ohio State came through and then
last night had to sweat it. They almost blew it.
But Miami and Carson Beck came through because they were a
ultimate line freeze RLM play. You had everybody in their
mother on the Irish, but that line pretty much stayed Irish -3
even got down to 2 1/2. So maybe had some winners here
for your Week 1 college footballslate.
(04:40):
Hopefully that's the first of many to come this season.
But as always, guys, we're goingright back to what we love to
do. I do have some people reach out
to me say, hey, any baseball plays for today.
I'll be honest, there's some daygames.
There are games I was kind of leaning on, but didn't see a ton
in terms of system matches. So it's going to be an all
football podcast here for today.So I hope that's OK with you.
I think it might be real quick. I also want to shout out those
(05:02):
of you who continue to buy my new book.
I love you guys. Thank you.
It's called the NFL sharp betting playbook.
It's still the number one new release on Amazon.
So please, if you'd like to support the team and really prep
for NFL week 1 in the big seasoncoming up, you can purchase the
NFL sharp betting playbook on Amazon.
And if you want to tweet me a photo of you holding the book, I
(05:22):
would love to give you a retweet.
And if you want to really be a hero, I would love a five star
review on a nice little message there on the Amazon page.
That would be great as well. But seriously, keep those tweets
coming. And I love the fact that you
guys seem to be enjoying a project of mine that took about
three years to get going. But anyway, guys, without
further ado, let's get after it.I want to start with, of course,
(05:44):
the big game tonight, college football, TCU and North
Carolina. So this one's kind of important
to me for a couple different reasons.
One, I'm a huge Patriots fan, born and raised.
I soured on Belichick at the end.
He completely lost it. But I'm interested to see
Belichick's debut. Does the old man still have it
or is he in over his head? We'll see.
And then also from a personal standpoint, my old friend
(06:05):
Michael Lombardi, I, you may notknow this, but for the first
four years of my career at V Sin, I was the third man in on
Lombardi line, myself, Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher.
So Michael Lombardi is now the general manager of North
Carolina. So with all that being said, you
know, you can't bet based on favoritism, based on bias,
believe it or not, guys, I'm betting against Belichick.
(06:26):
I'm betting against my buddy Michael Lombardi tonight.
But let's set the stage here tonight, 8:00 only game in town
on ESPNTCU at UNC. Always like to look at the first
game, you know, what are the wintotals look like?
You know, how does that jive with how the team performed last
year? Obviously college is crazy now
because you got all these transfers in the portal and NIL.
So things can change very quickly.
(06:46):
But TCU last year went nine and four.
Odds makers are expecting a little bit of a step back.
Their win total is 6 1/2. This year it is juiced over -180
so maybe they win seven or eightgames.
North Carolina, by the way, 6:00and 7:00 last year.
Their win total this year is 7 1/2.
So you're thinking maybe they'rea little bit better.
However, the under is juiced -165 so maybe they land right on
(07:08):
7. With that being said, what have
we seen across the market here? Well, this line move is very
interesting because when this game opened way back in May, you
got to go way, way back to the spring when we had these lines
first appear and when they firstdropped, UNC was actually a
favorite at a lot of shops. It was UNC around -1 1/2.
But then by the time maybe came June, the early money poured in
(07:30):
on TCU at flipped TCU plus 1 1/2to -2 1/2.
We sat -2 1/2 TCU for a bit and then it got up to TCU -3.
It is now TCU -3 1/2 and now we have a lot of shops -3 1/2 -,
115. I'm seeing a couple shops even
go up to -4 so whether you want to go back to, and some people
(07:50):
told me, hey, this line open TCU-3 well, depends where you get
your opener and kind of what opener you're going off of.
But even if you go off the opener of three, all movement
has been toward TCU. So on the one hand, we have to
kind of first just accept the fact that there's really been no
buyback in North Carolina. I haven't really seen, you know,
a three get down to 2 1/2 or a 31/2 get down to three.
(08:11):
Like it's been nothing but movement away from Belichick
toward TCU. That's the first thing I noticed
here. Next is the fact that this isn't
a public play on TCU. So we're kind of building a case
here for the Horn Frogs. If you look at the bet splits at
DraftKings right now, nearly 60%of spread bets are taking the
points with Belichick. So let's let's put our reverse
(08:33):
line move hat on those of you who don't believe in gravity.
You don't have to, that's OK. But nearly 2/3 of bets are on
North Carolina taking the points.
Yet the the odds makers are giving the public more points.
They say you like Belichick getting 3 here, I'll give you 3
1/2. You like the 3 1/2 here, I'll
give you a four. Why are the odds makers moving
the line further toward TCU if the majority of tickets are on
(08:54):
North Carolina? That's another dead giveaway to
me that pros have laid it with TCU.
So reverse line movement when the betting line goes away from
the popular side, UNC toward thepopular side.
TCU also a fade, the trendy dog play.
If you look at these splits right now, only about a third
40% of tickets on TCU or DraftKings.
That makes TCU a contrarian primetime play similar to Miami
(09:18):
last night. I know their home dog.
Now TCU was a road favorite, butstill it's a prime time game and
the public is on the opponent. So I like to bet against the
public in these primetime games,of course.
So TCU has not only the sharp line move, but a contrarian
opportunity. And then I really like this at
Circa out in Vegas caters to sharp betters.
Only 47% of spread bets are on TCU.
(09:39):
So it's a little more 5050, but 72% of the money money, money
money is on TCU. So that tells me we got only
about half the tickets with three out of $4.00 on North
Carolina. Bigger wagers here on UNC or
sorry on on TCU. I should say the angle here to
me though is like if you got TCUearlier, you know somewhere
(10:00):
around to pick them. If you got it real early, shout
out to you if you diagnose that early.
But if you're laying A2 and half, even a three on TCU,
you're looking good right now. You're beating the closing line.
It's hard for me to lay a three and half for four at this point
because we're kind of getting the worst of it and we've gone
through a key number. So TCU ends up winning by three.
We lay a three and half for four.
Obviously the most common marginof victory is that 3, because
(10:21):
the most common method of scoring is field goal and then
seven for a touchdown. But if it lands on three early
sharps who got the worm cover with TCU, we lose if you lay a
three and half for four. So I'm going to go money line
here. I'm going TCU to win the damn
game. As I like to say, I was able to
get TCU on the money line -170 alittle bit earlier today at
(10:42):
DraftKings. I believe the lowest price now
is around -175 at FanDuel. So it's a little bit pricey, but
I'm willing to pay that extra juice again on the off chance
that TCU wins by three. A lot of books are at 18185 on
TCU. So of course, shop around.
Looks like FanDuel is your best number.
But the other angle that I like about not just paying more juice
to mitigate the risk and have TCU win, but also Circa splits.
(11:06):
If you look at the money line splits at Circa, only 24% of
bets are on TCU, but they're getting 85% of the money.
So that's a big, big discrepancythere.
Tells me big money here is laying it with the horn frogs.
So that's my play. I'm going to TCU to win this
game. Publix, North Carolina lines
going to TCU. We got pretty good splits.
I'll also throw this in, you know, I'm, I'm pretty strictly
(11:28):
a, you know, a data-driven better.
But this kind of reminds me a little bit of Arch Manning's
debut. Poor kid.
You know, all the hype in the world and didn't play very well,
but lot of hype around Belichick.
It's a popular play like Arch Manning was.
It's also Belichick's first college game.
I know Arch Manning had played before, but it was really his
first true kind of start. You know, there's a lot of
(11:50):
transfers on North Carolina, so TCU brings back their QB.
North Carolina's got like a million new players and
transfers. So first game for Belichick in
college. The rules are different.
I know he's a genius, but it's not the same as the pros.
A lot of transfers, a lot of hype like Arch Manning and kind
of like the angle of betting against that popular big name
player or coach here. So that's another angle.
(12:12):
Now, if you tell me you're betting the total, I think
you're probably going to go under in this one.
I would lean pretty heavily to the under total open as high as
59. It's all the way down to 54 and
a half, 54 even when I was writing the sharp report for
visa.com earlier this morning, like 10 AM, this total was 55
1/2. So not only has it fallen from
open to current, but even game day, Steam has really hammered
(12:34):
this under. And if you look at circa 62% of
bets, 92% of dollars are on the under.
Really good split there. And it's also a classic prime
time under or typically in primetime, you kind of lean under
just in general. But I would lean under.
But my only official play here, I'm going TCU to win the damn
game. Sharp reverse line, move, fade
(12:56):
the trendy dog. I'm on TCU money line.
I got him at -170 at DraftKings again.
Looks like your best number right now is around -175 at
FanDuel. Now let's move over to the NFL
because it is opening week of the NFL.
So I'd love for you guys if you're interested to join my
survivor pool. 25 bucks through Splash Sports.
You can win up to $11,000. You can reach out to me and I'll
(13:19):
put the links in the podcast bio, but let me know if you're
interested. But I want to talk generally
about week one of the NFL and then give you some concrete
examples of games that are on myradar, which I might be playing
now. You get to week 1.
There's a lot of public bias in the market.
Public hasn't bet the NFL in, you know, six months and #1 it's
(13:39):
the most heavily bet public sport in general.
Again, if you want to get in thenitty gritty, buy my book, the
NFL Shark Betting Playbook. Look, I'm giving you the Cliffs,
Cliffs Notes right now, but in general, I'd like to bet against
the public in football because it's got the most public bias,
highest ticket counts, the most public action.
When it gets to Week 1 though, it's kind of anti public betting
(13:59):
on steroids. So contrarian betting, because
the public is going to bet on favorites.
They love to get the better team.
So therefore dogs have a lot of value.
Every team is healthy, everybody's even.
There's a lot of element of unpredictability.
You see a lot of upsets Week 1. Really the cream rises to the
top. The good teams kind of show
themselves as the as the season progresses, but weird things can
happen in Week 1. You also look at the public bias
(14:23):
where they're going to bet on teams who were who were good
last year, who they remember being good.
They're very biased toward what they saw last, recency bias.
So if you can kind of go the other way, look at dogs, look at
Rd. dogs, dogs who missed the postseason the previous year,
division dogs are the built in familiarity, dogs getting big
points. These are all kind of my go to
spots in week one of the NFL. So I'm going to give you my 5
(14:46):
top system matches. And again, betting system
matches are different, a different style of betting.
You're betting based on the situation.
And then I try to combine like the historical spot with what
the current data is telling me. But let's just start in general.
Let's go back to 2016. This is a near 10 year sample,
big sample week one dogs in the NFL since 2016.
(15:07):
They are 78 and 62 against the spread.
That is a 56% win rate, 8% ROI, $100 better.
Taking every dog since week 1 orweek one dog since 2016 is up
nearly $1100. So week one dogs have barked.
Week 1 Rd. dogs you just isolateinstead of home, Just home dogs.
Look at the road dogs because again public likes home teams.
(15:30):
Week 1 Rd. dogs since 20/16/52 and 36 ATS, 59 percent 14% ROI.
Week 1 dogs who missed the postseason the previous year.
Public thinks you're terrible, you didn't make the playoffs,
you stink right? Don't.
Don't play those teams. Actually they've done pretty
well in week 159 and 45 ATS. 57 percent, 10% ROI.
(15:51):
Week 1 divisional dogs. Two teams from the same
division. Take the team getting points
that built in familiarity levelsthe playing field benefits the
team getting points. Those teams are 31 and 16 ACE
ATS since 2016. 66% 26% ROI. Then you get your big dogs.
Typically you see some tight games here, especially early,
(16:13):
which is why dogs are covering. But if you're a weak one dog
getting 6 1/2 points or more, those teams are 25 and 12
against the spread. 68 percent, 31% ROI.
So week one dogs, week 1 Rd. dogs, week one dogs who missed
the post season the previous year, Week 1 divisional dogs,
week one dog. 6 1/2 or more. And I have another system, a
(16:34):
weak one dog in which both teamsmissed the post season the
previous year. That's 59% against the spread,
13% ROI. So that's just kind of my
overarching OK, what has worked in week 1 historically, it's
been these system matches, but then what I try to do is marry
these matches with sharp action in the betting market.
So here are a few games that I landed on that caught my eye.
(16:56):
One, believe it or not, Steelersat The Jets.
Aaron Rodgers Revenge game Used to play for The Jets, of course,
but this one's notable to me because this game opened
Pittsburgh basically a 2 1/2 or 3 point Rd. favorite and the
public is all on the Steelers. Mike Tomlin never has a losing
ear, yadda yadda Aaron Rodgers. So currently you're getting 69%
(17:19):
of spread bets laying the -3 with Pittsburgh on the road.
However, it's stayed Pittsburgh -3 line freeze on The Jets and
it's even moved down to 2 1/2 atquite a few shops.
So why this reminds me a little bit of the the Notre Dame Miami
game. Very similar, you know, kind of
the road favorite -3 yet the line is falling or staying the
(17:40):
same or falling toward the home unpopular dog.
So Jets only getting 39%. They're contrarian in a heavily
back game. The lines coming back to The
Jets, they would match as a weakone dog who missed the playoffs
the previous year, 57% ATS. Also, correlative betting, this
is a very low total of 38 1/2 and actually fell from 39 1/2.
It could be a low scoring game. It's typically good for a dog
(18:02):
getting points. So I'm looking at maybe Jets
plus 3 here and again, thinking maybe bread sooner rather than
later because some books are dropping down to 2 1/2.
But for me, if you're playing Jets, you got to get the three.
They look kind of sharp. Sharp contrarian line.
Freeze RLM Jets plus three caught my eye.
Now don't laugh, but the G men giants at the Washington
(18:24):
Commanders Commanders are going to blow them out right?
Jane Daniels giant stink. However, currently the
Washington Commanders are getting 61% of spread bets.
So nearly 2/3 of bets laying it with the Commanders.
But the Commanders actually opened around A7 point favorite
at home and the line is down to 6 1/2 six.
(18:44):
I even see one book at 5 1/2. So why is the line going toward
the Giants if the big majority of tickets are going with the
Washington Commanders? Classic reverse line move tells
me smart money has taken the points of the Giants.
It's very contrarian at at DraftKings, only 39% on the on
(19:05):
the Giants. But if you look over at Circa,
only 33% of bets but 91% of dollars are on the Giants.
So the Giants, man, they look pretty sharp.
You're getting some good movement on the G men, believe
it or not, I have a lot of system matches on the Giants.
Divisional dogs week 166% ATS, Rd. dog week 159% ATS.
Dog miss postseason week 157% ATS.
(19:29):
And also Russell Wilson as a dogin his career, 62% against the
spread. So again, Washington looks like
they got to blow him out, right?Well, line keeps going toward
the G men. G men look pretty sharp here, I
must admit. Another gross one.
Cincinnati at Cleveland. Joe Burrow, you know, they
locked up, you know, Jamar Chase, T Higgins, they gave
(19:49):
money to Hendrickson, you know this is an easy win for
Cincinnati, right At Cleveland. However, we open this game with
the Cincinnati Bengals basicallya six point Rd. favorite.
We're now down to 5 1/2. Some shops even down to 5.
Now that's notable because 76% of spread bets are going with
(20:10):
the Bengals. So three out of four bets are on
Bengals. Shouldn't they go -6 up to -7?
No, they're actually down to 5 1/2, even 5.
So why is this line falling toward Cleveland if everybody
and their mother is landed with Joe Burrow tells me you got
smart money on Cleveland. Cleveland is only getting 24% of
bets at DK. So a very bet against the public
(20:33):
contrarian opportunity. But if you look at circa 32% of
spread bets, 88% of spread dollars on Cleveland, remember,
it's going to be Joe Flacco, notShoulder.
But that's a huge split in favorof Cleveland.
Now we layer in our systems. Divisional dog, 66% ATS, week
one dog, missed postseason, 57% ATS.
Week one. Week one dog, both missed the
(20:54):
postseason, 59% ATS, 13% ROI. So Lions moving toward
Cleveland. Cleveland's getting a lot of
system matches. Lions moving toward The Jets
system matches. Lion is moving toward the Giants
system matches. So obviously there's a lot of
other games that fit, you know, these systems, like let me just
give you a couple here. If you look at, let me see this
(21:16):
one, the big one. So week one, dogs getting 6 1/2
or more. I told you that one was almost
70% against the spread. You know, if you're going to
hold your nose, Dallas Cowboys, no one wants to play the
Cowboys. They're getting 7 1/2.
Looks like you may want the hook.
It could get down to seven. You also look at, believe it or
not, the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans Saints, where are
(21:37):
they at? Let me find them real quick.
They're at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
Now, the line did move toward Arizona was as low as -4 1/2 up
to six, 6 1/2. But buying low on New Orleans as
a big dog, 6 1/2 or more Tennessee Titans playing the
Denver Broncos. Tennessee Titans are line move
(21:58):
toward Denver. It was -7 half up to minus.
Looks like 989 now at this point, might come back down, but
Tennessee would be an inflated system match here.
So Long story short, I gave you the blueprint.
These are all the plays that are, you know, cash
historically. Now it's up to us to kind of
marry these historical betting system matches with what the
(22:19):
market today is telling us. So there's a lot of other games
here. There's a lot of other games
that have caught my eye, but I'mgoing to try to kind of focus on
the top ones here that kind of combine both the past with the
present. So again, no official bets for
me. I'm going to monitor the monitor
these games. Of course, you can follow my All
Systems Go best bets from the Juice Reel app.
(22:40):
If I put them in, you'll get them there immediately.
It costs $4.99 a week. But but these are the games that
are on my radar and maybe they're on your radar as well.
But for tonight, let's just go TCU win the damn game.
I got them again -170 at, at DraftKings earlier today.
So that about does it for episode 343 of the All Systems
(23:02):
Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day. And also I'm going to say sorry,
sorry, I didn't have any pods last week.
But hey, there's only one week of the year where I get to spend
it with my entire family. So it was worth it.
But I miss you guys. I'm glad to get back in the
swing of things. But anyway, thank you for
(23:23):
listening to the pod. If you do enjoy these insights,
you enjoy the breakdowns, you want to learn more about
data-driven bedding, Obviously we'll get to that in a second,
but I would love for you to helpme grow this podcast.
Recommend it to a friend, give it a five star review in the App
Store, leave a nice note, hit the follow button.
That'll all be very much appreciated.
Give it a five star review in iTunes or Spotify.
(23:45):
Next, as I was alluding to, if you enjoy these data-driven
insights, you want to learn moreabout data-driven bedding, you
maybe have a friend who could use some tips.
You have a buddy who doesn't know what reverse line movement
movement is. Or maybe you had a buddy who
said, yeah, Hammer the Irish, Hammer Texas.
And maybe you have a friend or acolleague or family member who
maybe wants to bet on sports, never has done it before and
(24:07):
wants to try with the NFL. Well, I would be very humbled
and honored if you guys wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in
the Everything Guide to sports betting and then also the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook, my two books, they're both available to
purchase. Everything Guide is pretty much
just a intro to data-driven betting as a whole.
But of course, hey NFL, it's week 1 here.
And if you want to support the team and help me stay at the
(24:29):
number one ranking here on Amazon, I'd love for you guys to
buy the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook from Amazon.
And if you would like to give them both a five star review and
a nice, nice little note there on Amazon, I would very much
appreciate that as well. You can bring the Everything
Guide and the Sharp Betting Playbook to the sports book.
I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer next.
(24:50):
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm got to make sure
you tune in every Thursday NightLive on Twitter, 6:00 myself and
my buddy Cade. But then also you got to
download Rhythm. Great for their AI back models
and predictions for game bets and player props.
I'm actually going to go over Rhythm with all their
predictions for some of these dogs.
Maybe we'll have a Rhythm edge where you know, dogs getting 6
(25:13):
and Rhythm says they should be plus 4.2.
With download Rhythm, it's a great way to kind of just add
another layer of of insight and when you're breaking on your
games. And then of course, you got to
download Juice Reel, another great, fantastic app.
If you would like to support thepod, it cost you nothing.
It's free to listen to this pod.If you'd like to support the
team, go sign up to get those $4.99 a week best bets directly
(25:35):
from the juice real app. You'll get them as soon as I bet
them, hopefully beat some closing numbers, maybe get maybe
you'll follow and you got TCU a little bit earlier today at a
better price, but also getting at the robo Jackson best bet
picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays
the shop for the best line futures all available inside of
the juice reel app. So download juice reel download
rhythm. It'll be off and running with
(25:56):
two great sports betting apps and give them a five star review
in the App Store as well. Next, do you have a live odds
page? If you don't, you need one.
It's so important. I can't even tell you how hard
it would be without a live odds page.
You know you got to track the market.
The live odds page allows you todo that gives you all of the
opening numbers for every game and then obviously the current
(26:17):
numbers to the right so you can see which direction the line is
move. You can play that off the bet
splits if you want to get those from visen.com, but you're also
going to be able to shop for thebest price, get the best
numbers, identify steam teams getting steam.
The whole row gets lit up and you can hop on a slow moving
book if you want to play it. Also, you follow all the market
setting books like Pinnacle circa as well as you know, like
(26:39):
bet online and Chris and those kind of books.
But really it's just a all-encompassing tool that you
need if you're going to bet on sports and track the market.
Because you know, like if you'rebetting investing in stocks and
stuff, you need an E*Trade account.
Well, you're betting on sports, you need a live odds account.
So I would highly recommend you give odds logic a shot, a
chance, whatever you want. 7 dayfree trial, 50% off your first
(27:02):
month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
123. So that about does it for
today's pod. Getting back in the swing of
things. I missed you guys, but I'm ready
refreshed and I got a little bitof a tan, so it's good to be
back. And hey, the long the long
summer, even though I kind of enjoyed betting baseball every
day, I must admit. But it's great to have football
(27:24):
back and we're about to have some fun and hopefully cash some
tickets here guys. So as always, I'm leave you with
two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata in
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
Actually, after my Cape Cod trip, we went to upstate New
York, Westmoreland, Rome, NY forthe funeral of my my
(27:46):
brother-in-law or my father in law's brother.
We stayed at Turning Stone Resort and Casino.
It was actually really, really nice.
So maybe I'll see you at TurningStone one day.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
use possible is found at the South Point.
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool when they catch a big ticket at circle, wherever
(28:07):
it may be. You're going to walk up to me
and maybe over the past week youhad and got down in cash to
ticket on you USF South Florida,Cincinnati, OH state, Miami.
Show me one of those tickets. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book.
Sweat sharp contrarian plays allnight long.
So as always, guys, whether we're hot weather or cold,
(28:28):
coming off of three and OO and 3A2 and one O 1 and 2 is going
to be ups and downs. Betting ain't easy.
Remember that when you're struggling, you're not going to
get down on yourself because youknow this is hard to win
consistently. Also, when you're hot, you're
going, you know things are goingyour way and you're cashing
tickets, you're on a big nice win streak.
Don't get cocky, don't get arrogant.
You know you're never as hot as or good as you think when you're
(28:49):
hot. You're never as bad as you think
when you're cold. We just got to keep grinding,
staying true to the model and not betting every game, but just
betting the games that fit our system match.
So you might know by now or if you don't, that's OK too.
We're looking for games that go like this against the public,
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
to be successful sports bettors.So let's go horn frogs hope got
(29:13):
a hope. Hoping TCU gets a winner here
for tonight and then stay tuned,guys.
We got a big week ahead. Probably bet some baseball
tomorrow and layer in some some plays here as we get closer to
week one in the NFL. But good luck everybody.
I will see you tomorrow. A big Tuesday edition episode
344 of the all systems go sportsbetting podcast powered by
(29:34):
rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
TCU and UNC.
Hello, and welcome to episode 343 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, happy 1st of September.
(00:40):
That's right. Feels like summer is pretty much
officially over. It's feeling a lot like fall.
If you're in New England like me, starting to get cooler
temps, feels like the leaves arestarting to change.
And you know what that means, guys?
It is our favorite time of year.It's the busiest time of year.
It's football season. It's officially upon us.
We do have a lot to get to on today's podcast.
We have a primetime matchup, TCUand North Carolina, pretty nice.
(01:04):
We got a Monday Night Football game.
It's not NFL, it's college. So shout out to Bill Belichick
and my Belichick and my old friend Michael Lombardi, who I
used to work with for I think itwas like 4 years on the Lombardi
line. They're making their debut here
for North Carolina and I got to play on this one.
It's kind of right up my alley in terms of what we look for,
trying to stay true to the line movement, the splits, the system
(01:26):
matches. So do have a best bet here on
TCU against North Carolina. And then also we got to talk NFL
Week 1. Officially, it's here.
This is Week 1. So now we're going to get into
the routine of betting NFL on a weekly basis as well as college.
So I do want to talk about #1 some Week 1 betting systems.
Now, hint, hints. If you've ever done some NFL
(01:48):
seasons with me before, whether it was a previous podcast or my
write ups for VSN, you know, I like to bet a lot of dogs when
it comes to Week 1. So I'm gonna give you some dog
system matches. I got 12345 dog systems that
have done very, very well historically.
And I'm gonna give you some system matches.
What teams are taking in smart money and these system plays.
So 3 in particular I'm excited to talk about.
(02:10):
And of course we're going to talk TCU and UNC.
So it's going to be 1 best bet for tonight, the college game.
But then we got to start our prep for Week 1 of the NFL and
man, it is nice to have footballback in our lives.
Now before we get to our our play for tonight and our
breakdown for Belcheck's debut and talking NFL of course, I
want to say it feels good to be back because I haven't seen you
guys in a while. I was off last week, although I
(02:33):
still wrote my sharp reports. If you follow the all systems go
best bets officially from the Juice Reel app.
You could have gotten the plays while I was gone, but I spent a
week on Cape Cod with the family.
Specifically. We had a Airbnb or Verbo VRBO
house which was awesome, right next to Skakeit Beach in
Orleans. So you got to go kind of further
(02:53):
up the coast and on your way to Provincetown and it was me, my
wife, my mom and dad, my sister,my brother-in-law, my 2 nieces,
my aunt. We had my other aunt and uncle
visit and it's really one of thebest times of year.
So unfortunately you didn't get any pods last week because I was
too busy soaking up the rays on the beach and eating seafood and
lobster rolls and having a grandold time.
(03:14):
But it is great to be back and Ido apologize, no pods, but I'm
feeling refreshed, ready to go. And sometimes you got to
recharge the batteries right before you get to obviously the
busy part of the year. But with that being said, we did
have a Rhythm live stream that Iwas Co host my buddy Cade, which
is now every Thursday. So hope to see you guys there.
It's just a live Twitter stream.We will have some more graphics
(03:35):
and cut ups and everything kind of lined up here.
So you can always catch that every 6:00 Eastern Time Thursday
night. But we did some plays that cash.
So maybe you played South Florida against Boise State.
Everyone playing Boise line keptdipping towards South Florida.
They won outright. How about Cincinnati getting 7?
Everyone in the world was on Nebraska.
Primetime game at Arrowhead, butthat line pretty much stayed.
(03:57):
Line freeze or reverse line movetoward Nebraska.
I also got into a Twitter beef about RLM not being real.
When I try to explain it, peoplestill don't get it.
So you can check my Twitter for some entertainment at Josh under
Score Insights today. But then Ohio State, hey, we did
see a move toward Texas, but that was a buy low spot on Ohio
State. They're a contrarian play.
I did have a system match to tworanked teams to take the home
(04:20):
favorite. Ohio State came through and then
last night had to sweat it. They almost blew it.
But Miami and Carson Beck came through because they were a
ultimate line freeze RLM play. You had everybody in their
mother on the Irish, but that line pretty much stayed Irish -3
even got down to 2 1/2. So maybe had some winners here
for your Week 1 college footballslate.
(04:40):
Hopefully that's the first of many to come this season.
But as always, guys, we're goingright back to what we love to
do. I do have some people reach out
to me say, hey, any baseball plays for today.
I'll be honest, there's some daygames.
There are games I was kind of leaning on, but didn't see a ton
in terms of system matches. So it's going to be an all
football podcast here for today.So I hope that's OK with you.
I think it might be real quick. I also want to shout out those
(05:02):
of you who continue to buy my new book.
I love you guys. Thank you.
It's called the NFL sharp betting playbook.
It's still the number one new release on Amazon.
So please, if you'd like to support the team and really prep
for NFL week 1 in the big seasoncoming up, you can purchase the
NFL sharp betting playbook on Amazon.
And if you want to tweet me a photo of you holding the book, I
(05:22):
would love to give you a retweet.
And if you want to really be a hero, I would love a five star
review on a nice little message there on the Amazon page.
That would be great as well. But seriously, keep those tweets
coming. And I love the fact that you
guys seem to be enjoying a project of mine that took about
three years to get going. But anyway, guys, without
further ado, let's get after it.I want to start with, of course,
(05:44):
the big game tonight, college football, TCU and North
Carolina. So this one's kind of important
to me for a couple different reasons.
One, I'm a huge Patriots fan, born and raised.
I soured on Belichick at the end.
He completely lost it. But I'm interested to see
Belichick's debut. Does the old man still have it
or is he in over his head? We'll see.
And then also from a personal standpoint, my old friend
(06:05):
Michael Lombardi, I, you may notknow this, but for the first
four years of my career at V Sin, I was the third man in on
Lombardi line, myself, Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher.
So Michael Lombardi is now the general manager of North
Carolina. So with all that being said, you
know, you can't bet based on favoritism, based on bias,
believe it or not, guys, I'm betting against Belichick.
(06:26):
I'm betting against my buddy Michael Lombardi tonight.
But let's set the stage here tonight, 8:00 only game in town
on ESPNTCU at UNC. Always like to look at the first
game, you know, what are the wintotals look like?
You know, how does that jive with how the team performed last
year? Obviously college is crazy now
because you got all these transfers in the portal and NIL.
So things can change very quickly.
(06:46):
But TCU last year went nine and four.
Odds makers are expecting a little bit of a step back.
Their win total is 6 1/2. This year it is juiced over -180
so maybe they win seven or eightgames.
North Carolina, by the way, 6:00and 7:00 last year.
Their win total this year is 7 1/2.
So you're thinking maybe they'rea little bit better.
However, the under is juiced -165 so maybe they land right on
(07:08):
7. With that being said, what have
we seen across the market here? Well, this line move is very
interesting because when this game opened way back in May, you
got to go way, way back to the spring when we had these lines
first appear and when they firstdropped, UNC was actually a
favorite at a lot of shops. It was UNC around -1 1/2.
But then by the time maybe came June, the early money poured in
(07:30):
on TCU at flipped TCU plus 1 1/2to -2 1/2.
We sat -2 1/2 TCU for a bit and then it got up to TCU -3.
It is now TCU -3 1/2 and now we have a lot of shops -3 1/2 -,
115. I'm seeing a couple shops even
go up to -4 so whether you want to go back to, and some people
(07:50):
told me, hey, this line open TCU-3 well, depends where you get
your opener and kind of what opener you're going off of.
But even if you go off the opener of three, all movement
has been toward TCU. So on the one hand, we have to
kind of first just accept the fact that there's really been no
buyback in North Carolina. I haven't really seen, you know,
a three get down to 2 1/2 or a 31/2 get down to three.
(08:11):
Like it's been nothing but movement away from Belichick
toward TCU. That's the first thing I noticed
here. Next is the fact that this isn't
a public play on TCU. So we're kind of building a case
here for the Horn Frogs. If you look at the bet splits at
DraftKings right now, nearly 60%of spread bets are taking the
points with Belichick. So let's let's put our reverse
(08:33):
line move hat on those of you who don't believe in gravity.
You don't have to, that's OK. But nearly 2/3 of bets are on
North Carolina taking the points.
Yet the the odds makers are giving the public more points.
They say you like Belichick getting 3 here, I'll give you 3
1/2. You like the 3 1/2 here, I'll
give you a four. Why are the odds makers moving
the line further toward TCU if the majority of tickets are on
(08:54):
North Carolina? That's another dead giveaway to
me that pros have laid it with TCU.
So reverse line movement when the betting line goes away from
the popular side, UNC toward thepopular side.
TCU also a fade, the trendy dog play.
If you look at these splits right now, only about a third
40% of tickets on TCU or DraftKings.
That makes TCU a contrarian primetime play similar to Miami
(09:18):
last night. I know their home dog.
Now TCU was a road favorite, butstill it's a prime time game and
the public is on the opponent. So I like to bet against the
public in these primetime games,of course.
So TCU has not only the sharp line move, but a contrarian
opportunity. And then I really like this at
Circa out in Vegas caters to sharp betters.
Only 47% of spread bets are on TCU.
(09:39):
So it's a little more 5050, but 72% of the money money, money
money is on TCU. So that tells me we got only
about half the tickets with three out of $4.00 on North
Carolina. Bigger wagers here on UNC or
sorry on on TCU. I should say the angle here to
me though is like if you got TCUearlier, you know somewhere
(10:00):
around to pick them. If you got it real early, shout
out to you if you diagnose that early.
But if you're laying A2 and half, even a three on TCU,
you're looking good right now. You're beating the closing line.
It's hard for me to lay a three and half for four at this point
because we're kind of getting the worst of it and we've gone
through a key number. So TCU ends up winning by three.
We lay a three and half for four.
Obviously the most common marginof victory is that 3, because
(10:21):
the most common method of scoring is field goal and then
seven for a touchdown. But if it lands on three early
sharps who got the worm cover with TCU, we lose if you lay a
three and half for four. So I'm going to go money line
here. I'm going TCU to win the damn
game. As I like to say, I was able to
get TCU on the money line -170 alittle bit earlier today at
(10:42):
DraftKings. I believe the lowest price now
is around -175 at FanDuel. So it's a little bit pricey, but
I'm willing to pay that extra juice again on the off chance
that TCU wins by three. A lot of books are at 18185 on
TCU. So of course, shop around.
Looks like FanDuel is your best number.
But the other angle that I like about not just paying more juice
to mitigate the risk and have TCU win, but also Circa splits.
(11:06):
If you look at the money line splits at Circa, only 24% of
bets are on TCU, but they're getting 85% of the money.
So that's a big, big discrepancythere.
Tells me big money here is laying it with the horn frogs.
So that's my play. I'm going to TCU to win this
game. Publix, North Carolina lines
going to TCU. We got pretty good splits.
I'll also throw this in, you know, I'm, I'm pretty strictly
(11:28):
a, you know, a data-driven better.
But this kind of reminds me a little bit of Arch Manning's
debut. Poor kid.
You know, all the hype in the world and didn't play very well,
but lot of hype around Belichick.
It's a popular play like Arch Manning was.
It's also Belichick's first college game.
I know Arch Manning had played before, but it was really his
first true kind of start. You know, there's a lot of
(11:50):
transfers on North Carolina, so TCU brings back their QB.
North Carolina's got like a million new players and
transfers. So first game for Belichick in
college. The rules are different.
I know he's a genius, but it's not the same as the pros.
A lot of transfers, a lot of hype like Arch Manning and kind
of like the angle of betting against that popular big name
player or coach here. So that's another angle.
(12:12):
Now, if you tell me you're betting the total, I think
you're probably going to go under in this one.
I would lean pretty heavily to the under total open as high as
59. It's all the way down to 54 and
a half, 54 even when I was writing the sharp report for
visa.com earlier this morning, like 10 AM, this total was 55
1/2. So not only has it fallen from
open to current, but even game day, Steam has really hammered
(12:34):
this under. And if you look at circa 62% of
bets, 92% of dollars are on the under.
Really good split there. And it's also a classic prime
time under or typically in primetime, you kind of lean under
just in general. But I would lean under.
But my only official play here, I'm going TCU to win the damn
game. Sharp reverse line, move, fade
(12:56):
the trendy dog. I'm on TCU money line.
I got him at -170 at DraftKings again.
Looks like your best number right now is around -175 at
FanDuel. Now let's move over to the NFL
because it is opening week of the NFL.
So I'd love for you guys if you're interested to join my
survivor pool. 25 bucks through Splash Sports.
You can win up to $11,000. You can reach out to me and I'll
(13:19):
put the links in the podcast bio, but let me know if you're
interested. But I want to talk generally
about week one of the NFL and then give you some concrete
examples of games that are on myradar, which I might be playing
now. You get to week 1.
There's a lot of public bias in the market.
Public hasn't bet the NFL in, you know, six months and #1 it's
(13:39):
the most heavily bet public sport in general.
Again, if you want to get in thenitty gritty, buy my book, the
NFL Shark Betting Playbook. Look, I'm giving you the Cliffs,
Cliffs Notes right now, but in general, I'd like to bet against
the public in football because it's got the most public bias,
highest ticket counts, the most public action.
When it gets to Week 1 though, it's kind of anti public betting
(13:59):
on steroids. So contrarian betting, because
the public is going to bet on favorites.
They love to get the better team.
So therefore dogs have a lot of value.
Every team is healthy, everybody's even.
There's a lot of element of unpredictability.
You see a lot of upsets Week 1. Really the cream rises to the
top. The good teams kind of show
themselves as the as the season progresses, but weird things can
happen in Week 1. You also look at the public bias
(14:23):
where they're going to bet on teams who were who were good
last year, who they remember being good.
They're very biased toward what they saw last, recency bias.
So if you can kind of go the other way, look at dogs, look at
Rd. dogs, dogs who missed the postseason the previous year,
division dogs are the built in familiarity, dogs getting big
points. These are all kind of my go to
spots in week one of the NFL. So I'm going to give you my 5
(14:46):
top system matches. And again, betting system
matches are different, a different style of betting.
You're betting based on the situation.
And then I try to combine like the historical spot with what
the current data is telling me. But let's just start in general.
Let's go back to 2016. This is a near 10 year sample,
big sample week one dogs in the NFL since 2016.
(15:07):
They are 78 and 62 against the spread.
That is a 56% win rate, 8% ROI, $100 better.
Taking every dog since week 1 orweek one dog since 2016 is up
nearly $1100. So week one dogs have barked.
Week 1 Rd. dogs you just isolateinstead of home, Just home dogs.
Look at the road dogs because again public likes home teams.
(15:30):
Week 1 Rd. dogs since 20/16/52 and 36 ATS, 59 percent 14% ROI.
Week 1 dogs who missed the postseason the previous year.
Public thinks you're terrible, you didn't make the playoffs,
you stink right? Don't.
Don't play those teams. Actually they've done pretty
well in week 159 and 45 ATS. 57 percent, 10% ROI.
(15:51):
Week 1 divisional dogs. Two teams from the same
division. Take the team getting points
that built in familiarity levelsthe playing field benefits the
team getting points. Those teams are 31 and 16 ACE
ATS since 2016. 66% 26% ROI. Then you get your big dogs.
Typically you see some tight games here, especially early,
(16:13):
which is why dogs are covering. But if you're a weak one dog
getting 6 1/2 points or more, those teams are 25 and 12
against the spread. 68 percent, 31% ROI.
So week one dogs, week 1 Rd. dogs, week one dogs who missed
the post season the previous year, Week 1 divisional dogs,
week one dog. 6 1/2 or more. And I have another system, a
(16:34):
weak one dog in which both teamsmissed the post season the
previous year. That's 59% against the spread,
13% ROI. So that's just kind of my
overarching OK, what has worked in week 1 historically, it's
been these system matches, but then what I try to do is marry
these matches with sharp action in the betting market.
So here are a few games that I landed on that caught my eye.
(16:56):
One, believe it or not, Steelersat The Jets.
Aaron Rodgers Revenge game Used to play for The Jets, of course,
but this one's notable to me because this game opened
Pittsburgh basically a 2 1/2 or 3 point Rd. favorite and the
public is all on the Steelers. Mike Tomlin never has a losing
ear, yadda yadda Aaron Rodgers. So currently you're getting 69%
(17:19):
of spread bets laying the -3 with Pittsburgh on the road.
However, it's stayed Pittsburgh -3 line freeze on The Jets and
it's even moved down to 2 1/2 atquite a few shops.
So why this reminds me a little bit of the the Notre Dame Miami
game. Very similar, you know, kind of
the road favorite -3 yet the line is falling or staying the
(17:40):
same or falling toward the home unpopular dog.
So Jets only getting 39%. They're contrarian in a heavily
back game. The lines coming back to The
Jets, they would match as a weakone dog who missed the playoffs
the previous year, 57% ATS. Also, correlative betting, this
is a very low total of 38 1/2 and actually fell from 39 1/2.
It could be a low scoring game. It's typically good for a dog
(18:02):
getting points. So I'm looking at maybe Jets
plus 3 here and again, thinking maybe bread sooner rather than
later because some books are dropping down to 2 1/2.
But for me, if you're playing Jets, you got to get the three.
They look kind of sharp. Sharp contrarian line.
Freeze RLM Jets plus three caught my eye.
Now don't laugh, but the G men giants at the Washington
(18:24):
Commanders Commanders are going to blow them out right?
Jane Daniels giant stink. However, currently the
Washington Commanders are getting 61% of spread bets.
So nearly 2/3 of bets laying it with the Commanders.
But the Commanders actually opened around A7 point favorite
at home and the line is down to 6 1/2 six.
(18:44):
I even see one book at 5 1/2. So why is the line going toward
the Giants if the big majority of tickets are going with the
Washington Commanders? Classic reverse line move tells
me smart money has taken the points of the Giants.
It's very contrarian at at DraftKings, only 39% on the on
(19:05):
the Giants. But if you look over at Circa,
only 33% of bets but 91% of dollars are on the Giants.
So the Giants, man, they look pretty sharp.
You're getting some good movement on the G men, believe
it or not, I have a lot of system matches on the Giants.
Divisional dogs week 166% ATS, Rd. dog week 159% ATS.
Dog miss postseason week 157% ATS.
(19:29):
And also Russell Wilson as a dogin his career, 62% against the
spread. So again, Washington looks like
they got to blow him out, right?Well, line keeps going toward
the G men. G men look pretty sharp here, I
must admit. Another gross one.
Cincinnati at Cleveland. Joe Burrow, you know, they
locked up, you know, Jamar Chase, T Higgins, they gave
(19:49):
money to Hendrickson, you know this is an easy win for
Cincinnati, right At Cleveland. However, we open this game with
the Cincinnati Bengals basicallya six point Rd. favorite.
We're now down to 5 1/2. Some shops even down to 5.
Now that's notable because 76% of spread bets are going with
(20:10):
the Bengals. So three out of four bets are on
Bengals. Shouldn't they go -6 up to -7?
No, they're actually down to 5 1/2, even 5.
So why is this line falling toward Cleveland if everybody
and their mother is landed with Joe Burrow tells me you got
smart money on Cleveland. Cleveland is only getting 24% of
bets at DK. So a very bet against the public
(20:33):
contrarian opportunity. But if you look at circa 32% of
spread bets, 88% of spread dollars on Cleveland, remember,
it's going to be Joe Flacco, notShoulder.
But that's a huge split in favorof Cleveland.
Now we layer in our systems. Divisional dog, 66% ATS, week
one dog, missed postseason, 57% ATS.
Week one. Week one dog, both missed the
(20:54):
postseason, 59% ATS, 13% ROI. So Lions moving toward
Cleveland. Cleveland's getting a lot of
system matches. Lions moving toward The Jets
system matches. Lion is moving toward the Giants
system matches. So obviously there's a lot of
other games that fit, you know, these systems, like let me just
give you a couple here. If you look at, let me see this
(21:16):
one, the big one. So week one, dogs getting 6 1/2
or more. I told you that one was almost
70% against the spread. You know, if you're going to
hold your nose, Dallas Cowboys, no one wants to play the
Cowboys. They're getting 7 1/2.
Looks like you may want the hook.
It could get down to seven. You also look at, believe it or
not, the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans Saints, where are
(21:37):
they at? Let me find them real quick.
They're at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
Now, the line did move toward Arizona was as low as -4 1/2 up
to six, 6 1/2. But buying low on New Orleans as
a big dog, 6 1/2 or more Tennessee Titans playing the
Denver Broncos. Tennessee Titans are line move
(21:58):
toward Denver. It was -7 half up to minus.
Looks like 989 now at this point, might come back down, but
Tennessee would be an inflated system match here.
So Long story short, I gave you the blueprint.
These are all the plays that are, you know, cash
historically. Now it's up to us to kind of
marry these historical betting system matches with what the
(22:19):
market today is telling us. So there's a lot of other games
here. There's a lot of other games
that have caught my eye, but I'mgoing to try to kind of focus on
the top ones here that kind of combine both the past with the
present. So again, no official bets for
me. I'm going to monitor the monitor
these games. Of course, you can follow my All
Systems Go best bets from the Juice Reel app.
(22:40):
If I put them in, you'll get them there immediately.
It costs $4.99 a week. But but these are the games that
are on my radar and maybe they're on your radar as well.
But for tonight, let's just go TCU win the damn game.
I got them again -170 at, at DraftKings earlier today.
So that about does it for episode 343 of the All Systems
(23:02):
Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day. And also I'm going to say sorry,
sorry, I didn't have any pods last week.
But hey, there's only one week of the year where I get to spend
it with my entire family. So it was worth it.
But I miss you guys. I'm glad to get back in the
swing of things. But anyway, thank you for
(23:23):
listening to the pod. If you do enjoy these insights,
you enjoy the breakdowns, you want to learn more about
data-driven bedding, Obviously we'll get to that in a second,
but I would love for you to helpme grow this podcast.
Recommend it to a friend, give it a five star review in the App
Store, leave a nice note, hit the follow button.
That'll all be very much appreciated.
Give it a five star review in iTunes or Spotify.
(23:45):
Next, as I was alluding to, if you enjoy these data-driven
insights, you want to learn moreabout data-driven bedding, you
maybe have a friend who could use some tips.
You have a buddy who doesn't know what reverse line movement
movement is. Or maybe you had a buddy who
said, yeah, Hammer the Irish, Hammer Texas.
And maybe you have a friend or acolleague or family member who
maybe wants to bet on sports, never has done it before and
(24:07):
wants to try with the NFL. Well, I would be very humbled
and honored if you guys wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in
the Everything Guide to sports betting and then also the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook, my two books, they're both available to
purchase. Everything Guide is pretty much
just a intro to data-driven betting as a whole.
But of course, hey NFL, it's week 1 here.
And if you want to support the team and help me stay at the
(24:29):
number one ranking here on Amazon, I'd love for you guys to
buy the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook from Amazon.
And if you would like to give them both a five star review and
a nice, nice little note there on Amazon, I would very much
appreciate that as well. You can bring the Everything
Guide and the Sharp Betting Playbook to the sports book.
I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer next.
(24:50):
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm got to make sure
you tune in every Thursday NightLive on Twitter, 6:00 myself and
my buddy Cade. But then also you got to
download Rhythm. Great for their AI back models
and predictions for game bets and player props.
I'm actually going to go over Rhythm with all their
predictions for some of these dogs.
Maybe we'll have a Rhythm edge where you know, dogs getting 6
(25:13):
and Rhythm says they should be plus 4.2.
With download Rhythm, it's a great way to kind of just add
another layer of of insight and when you're breaking on your
games. And then of course, you got to
download Juice Reel, another great, fantastic app.
If you would like to support thepod, it cost you nothing.
It's free to listen to this pod.If you'd like to support the
team, go sign up to get those $4.99 a week best bets directly
(25:35):
from the juice real app. You'll get them as soon as I bet
them, hopefully beat some closing numbers, maybe get maybe
you'll follow and you got TCU a little bit earlier today at a
better price, but also getting at the robo Jackson best bet
picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays
the shop for the best line futures all available inside of
the juice reel app. So download juice reel download
rhythm. It'll be off and running with
(25:56):
two great sports betting apps and give them a five star review
in the App Store as well. Next, do you have a live odds
page? If you don't, you need one.
It's so important. I can't even tell you how hard
it would be without a live odds page.
You know you got to track the market.
The live odds page allows you todo that gives you all of the
opening numbers for every game and then obviously the current
(26:17):
numbers to the right so you can see which direction the line is
move. You can play that off the bet
splits if you want to get those from visen.com, but you're also
going to be able to shop for thebest price, get the best
numbers, identify steam teams getting steam.
The whole row gets lit up and you can hop on a slow moving
book if you want to play it. Also, you follow all the market
setting books like Pinnacle circa as well as you know, like
(26:39):
bet online and Chris and those kind of books.
But really it's just a all-encompassing tool that you
need if you're going to bet on sports and track the market.
Because you know, like if you'rebetting investing in stocks and
stuff, you need an E*Trade account.
Well, you're betting on sports, you need a live odds account.
So I would highly recommend you give odds logic a shot, a
chance, whatever you want. 7 dayfree trial, 50% off your first
(27:02):
month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
123. So that about does it for
today's pod. Getting back in the swing of
things. I missed you guys, but I'm ready
refreshed and I got a little bitof a tan, so it's good to be
back. And hey, the long the long
summer, even though I kind of enjoyed betting baseball every
day, I must admit. But it's great to have football
(27:24):
back and we're about to have some fun and hopefully cash some
tickets here guys. So as always, I'm leave you with
two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata in
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
Actually, after my Cape Cod trip, we went to upstate New
York, Westmoreland, Rome, NY forthe funeral of my my
(27:46):
brother-in-law or my father in law's brother.
We stayed at Turning Stone Resort and Casino.
It was actually really, really nice.
So maybe I'll see you at TurningStone one day.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
use possible is found at the South Point.
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool when they catch a big ticket at circle, wherever
(28:07):
it may be. You're going to walk up to me
and maybe over the past week youhad and got down in cash to
ticket on you USF South Florida,Cincinnati, OH state, Miami.
Show me one of those tickets. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book.
Sweat sharp contrarian plays allnight long.
So as always, guys, whether we're hot weather or cold,
(28:28):
coming off of three and OO and 3A2 and one O 1 and 2 is going
to be ups and downs. Betting ain't easy.
Remember that when you're struggling, you're not going to
get down on yourself because youknow this is hard to win
consistently. Also, when you're hot, you're
going, you know things are goingyour way and you're cashing
tickets, you're on a big nice win streak.
Don't get cocky, don't get arrogant.
You know you're never as hot as or good as you think when you're
(28:49):
hot. You're never as bad as you think
when you're cold. We just got to keep grinding,
staying true to the model and not betting every game, but just
betting the games that fit our system match.
So you might know by now or if you don't, that's OK too.
We're looking for games that go like this against the public,
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
to be successful sports bettors.So let's go horn frogs hope got
(29:13):
a hope. Hoping TCU gets a winner here
for tonight and then stay tuned,guys.
We got a big week ahead. Probably bet some baseball
tomorrow and layer in some some plays here as we get closer to
week one in the NFL. But good luck everybody.
I will see you tomorrow. A big Tuesday edition episode
344 of the all systems go sportsbetting podcast powered by
(29:34):
rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
TCU and UNC.
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