Analytical Edge with Fat Dog and The Cat

October 14, and we’re running through three sharp reads across baseball and hockey — all with data, discipline, and just enough bite.

⚾ Dodgers at Brewers — Over 7.5 (-108)

This park’s a trampoline. HR factors north of 100, two top-5 offenses by power metrics, and both clubs swinging hot this postseason.

One bullpen hiccup and the total’s history. Think fireworks, not finesse.

🏒 Wild at Stars — Minnesota +1.5 (-154)

Dallas wins, bu...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets grit and every pick comes with receipts.

It’s October 13, and the numbers are lining up across football and baseball — three clean edges, one sharp mission.

🏈 Bills at Falcons — Over 49.5 (-110)

Buffalo scores like it’s a reflex (30.6 PPG, 3rd in the league), and Atlanta’s best weapon is a running game built to exploit a soft Bills front — 28th against the run, 5.6 YPC...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets discipline, and emotion takes the day off.

For October 12, we’ve got three plays across the board — one defensive mismatch, one coaching edge, and one bullpen fade.

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49ers at Buccaneers — Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)

San Francisco drives well but finishes poorly — 28th in red-zone touchdown rate at just 42%. Tampa forces kicks, not end-zone dances.

Bowles’ squad thrives after ha...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where logic eats emotion for breakfast.

It’s October 11, and today’s board is clean — rivalry volatility, SEC muscle, and bullpen reliability.

This line flipped from -3 to +1.5 overnight, and that’s our invitation.
Texas brings a top-10 scoring defense, a top-15 third-down stop rate, and the better turnover profile — critical in a field-position war.
Neutral-site variance turns every dri...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where the data drives and emotion parks the car.
Today’s October 10 card brings two spots where math meets mismatch: one on the diamond, one on the hardwood.

It’s win or go home, and both offenses are swinging like they know it. Detroit just posted nine runs, and Seattle’s already proven it can get to Skubal — twice, in fact, off Jorge Polanco’s bat.

At 5.5, the market’s asleep. This number bel...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, the show where the math meets the moment — and the edge always gets the last word.

For October 9, we’re going cross-sport again: NFL, MLB, and College Football. Three plays, one goal — staying one step ahead of the number.

We start at MetLife, where this total looks too humble for the matchup.

The Giants’ defense has bent all year — 29th in red-zone stops — while the Eagles rank top-fiv...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we don’t chase headlines — we chase value.

For October 8, the board gives us two tight moneylines and one total, each built on pitcher metrics, park factors, and market inefficiencies that still pay full price.

We open with a coin-flip price that doesn’t tell the full story. The Mariners’ offense runs hot against right-handed pitching, and their bullpen ranks among the most efficient in ...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets discipline and chaos pays interest.

For October 7, we’ve got two totals and a prop, each built on batted-ball profiles, park factors, and pitcher contact metrics that whisper “over” before the first pitch is thrown.

We open in Comerica Park, where Jack Flaherty’s contact profile (18th-percentile Barrel %, 22nd Hard-Hit %) looks like lighter fluid against a Seattle lineup that ...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we don’t chase chaos — we calculate it. For today’s October 6 slate, we’ve got three totals across the NFL and MLB that all lean toward one direction: points, power, and pace.

We’ll start on the gridiron. Both defenses are good on paper — but that’s exactly why this total holds value. Jacksonville leads the league in takeaways with nine interceptions through four games, and turnovers mean s...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, your daily dose of edge, logic, and lines that make sense before they move. Today’s October 5 slate runs through Manchester, New York, and Toronto — a little soccer, a little football, and a sharp postseason prop that smells like value.

City are slowly morphing back into machine mode — unbeaten in six and leading the league with 14 goals, eight of them courtesy of Erling Haaland. Brentford, on th...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we turn numbers into narratives and edges into execution. Today’s October 4 slate takes us through London, Toronto, and Tallahassee—with three plays grounded in matchup precision and quantitative edge.

We kick off in the Premier League. Four straight Liverpool matches have stayed under, and three of Chelsea’s last four have followed suit. With Cole Palmer out and the backline held toget...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. For today’s October 3 slate, we’ve lined up three sharp plays across soccer, basketball, and college football—all grounded in matchup context, quantitative models, and the discipline that makes the edge sustainable.

⚽ Fulham FC at AFC Bournemouth — Over 2.5 (-110)

We start in the Premier League with Fulham traveling to Bournemouth. The Cherries are buzzing right now—11 points in their last six...

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s October 2 slate, we’re rolling into three sharp plays across football, baseball, and the NFL board, each built on numbers, matchup context, and proven models.

Feyenoord +0.5 vs Aston Villa
We start in Europe, where De Kuip turns into a wall of noise on European nights. Feyenoord enter unbeaten in their last six UEL home games, averaging nearly three goals in that stretch. With a...

Today’s Fat Dog and The Cat (Oct 1, 2025) delivers Barcelona vs PSG, Dodgers -1.5, and Dylan Cease’s K prop with full analytical breakdowns.

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s October 1 slate, we bring you three sharp plays across football and baseball, each backed by numbers, matchup context, and proven models.

We start in Europe with FC Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain. PSG arrive without several tent-pole players ...

Today’s picks:

• Tarik Skubal (DET) — Under 7.5 Ks (-108) — Tigers at Guardians

• New York Yankees (-136) — Red Sox at Yankees

• Under 7 (-108) — Reds at Dodgers

  
  

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s breakdown for September 30, 2025, we deliver three sharp MLB plays powered by data-driven analysis and matchup context.

We begin with Tarik Skubal’s strikeout prop. Despite his electric stuff, Cleveland’s high-contact appro...

Today’s picks:

• Lazio +0.5 at Genoa

• Everton vs West Ham Under 2.5

• Miami Dolphins −2.5 vs New York Jets

• J.K. Dobbins Under 65.5 Rushing Yards

  
  

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s breakdown for September 29, 2025, we tackle four sharp plays across European football and the NFL.

We open in Serie A, where Lazio head to Genoa. Injuries in midfield and Genoa’s sputtering attack point strongly toward value on Lazio +0.5, ...

Today’s picks:

- Atlético vs Real Madrid Under 3

- Penn State −3.5 vs Oregon

- USC QB Jayden Maiava Under 270.5 yards.

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s analysis for September 27, 2025, we break down three high-confidence plays across European football and NCAA college football.

We start in La Liga, where Atlético Madrid face rivals Real Madrid in a matchup primed for defensive discipline. The model points strongly to...

Fat Dog and The Cat return to Analytical Edge with three confident plays for Friday, September 26, 2025. They break down the day’s action across college football and the WNBA with sharp insights, matchup context, and betting discipline.

On today’s card:

• Over 54.5 (-110) — TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona State Sun Devils

• Virginia Cavaliers +7.0 (-110) — Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Cavaliers

• Over 162.5 — Las Vegas Aces at Ind...

Fat Dog and The Cat return with another loaded slate on Analytical Edge for Thursday, September 25, 2025. They break down three sharp plays:

• Arizona Cardinals +1.5 against the Seattle Seahawks

• Kyler Murray Under 213.5 Passing Yards

• Army Black Knights +4 at East Carolina Pirates

  
  

This episode blends stats, matchup context, and betting strategy to deliver insights that separate casual picks from calculated plays. Whether ...