This week, in a special episode of ATA, we examine the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran expert Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a former detainee of the IRGC, shares her insights on how the Iranian regime is responding to what may be its greatest challenge to power since the 1979 revolution. Dash and Tami also connect with two young Australians currently in Israel to bring listeners firsthand accounts from the ground.
Articles relevant to this episode:
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/israel-v-iran-the-best-analysis
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/iran-v-israel-another-war-without-an-exit-strategy
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/israel-has-two-aims-against-iran-is-either-achievable
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/iran-may-turn-to-international-terror
Subscribe to The Jewish Independent's bi-weekly newsletter: jewishindependent.com.au
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Hey everyone, welcome back to Ashamed to Admit the
podcast where we say and ask thequiet things out loud and
occasionally we direct ourattention to the breaking news
of the day.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
This week's episode is going to be a little
different.
This week's episode is going tobe a little different.
We had another conversationplanned and recorded, ready to
go, and then, as you're allaware, war broke out between
Israel and Iran.
Today you're going to hearthree voices on what's currently
unfolding.
First up, we have two youngAustralian Jews in Israel.
(00:42):
They'll be bringing us theirperspective on what they're
seeing.
What they're hearing and whatthey're feeling as missiles rain
down on Israel and as theregion edges closer to a war
unlike anything we've seen inliving memory.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
That's right Dash.
We, like many of our listeners,have been sending our thoughts
and prayers to loved ones inIsrael, but we wanted to do
something more tangible, likegiving a voice or a platform to
the people actually livingthrough the headlines we simply
see on the news or social media.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
And at the same time, we know many of you have lots
of questions about Iran.
What can we expect next fromthe Iranian regime and, in
particular, the IRGC, theIslamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps?
Speaker 1 (01:34):
And to that end, we were very fortunate to have Iran
watcher, political scientist,academic, writer and friend I'm
ashamed to admit Kylie MooreGilbert, join us today.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
So the episode, it's going to be a bit raw.
A bit rough because we're goingto be putting this out pretty
quickly.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
And I'm recording from a motel in rural New South
Wales with dodgy internet and noexternal microphone.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
But stick around because this is essential
listening right now.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
He's Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
She's Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Welcome to the Jewish Independent Podcast.
Ashamed to Admit.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
First up today we have Hannah Majinski.
She's a graduate of theUniversity of Melbourne and was
involved in variousMelbourne-based community
organisations, including KehelakKalenu and the youth movement
Habanim Draw.
Hannah made Aliyah at the startof 2024 and is currently the
(02:42):
Madrika or youth leader ofHabanim Draw's Shnut program.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
In our interview you'll hear Hannah talk about
Olim, and Olim are basicallyjust the people who've moved to
Israel from the diaspora as partof the Jewish immigration
process Hannah.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
How are you both going?
Speaker 2 (03:03):
More importantly, how are you going, Hannah?
You're the one we're concernedabout right now.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Okay, well, thanks for having me.
I feel like it's important tohave voices on the ground, so
appreciate that.
Honestly, I'm really tired.
I feel like, yeah, all themissiles have come at nighttime,
so sleep has been reallydisjointed and, yeah, been
really disjointed and yeah, lastnight, for example, it was 11pm
, 4.40am and then 8.40am, so Ihad a very disjointed sleep, but
(03:33):
I'm safe and that's whatmatters.
Are you sleeping in the bunker?
That's in your apartment.
No, so I'm actually not in myapartment.
I'm a leader of the AustralianSHNAP program for Habonim Draw,
so when all this started onFriday, I made the snap decision
to come up to a kibbutz in thenorth to be with the 12
(03:56):
khanachim participants who arestill there.
So there's not space for us tosleep in the bunker, but there's
enough space for us to come inthe nighttime, and our rooms are
really close.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Hannah, you mentioned that you are a leader of the
schnutt cohort for Hub and Imdra, so presumably the Australian-.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
The schnutties.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
The schnutties.
That's right.
Okay, so there are 12schnutties that you're leading
at the moment that you're closeby.
How are they holding up?
How are they responding to allof this?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
It's definitely way more stressful for them.
They chose to come here fortheir gap year but, unlike me,
they didn't commit to living inIsrael and all that comes with
it, so the first day or two wasa really big shock for them and
I had last year where I had alot of the sirens and the
notifications on the phone, butthis was really new to them.
(04:52):
But in saying that they've beenreally strong and really great.
They are getting more and moreused to it every day.
They're upset how much it'simpacting their schnapp and
their program.
They were meant to fly toAmerica to lead on hub and draw
camps there, but of course theairspace is closed, which is
really hard and disappointing.
But they also are reallyappreciative that they have a
(05:15):
shelter at the kibbutz thatthey're on that is underground
and really safe and like, aswe're seeing, not every israeli
is privileged enough to have ashelter in their building or a
safe enough one below ground.
So they're just really reallyglad that they're safe and what?
Speaker 1 (05:30):
about the parents, because I assume that, as in
your role as a Madriachal, youhave to deal with concerned or
anxious parents back inAustralia.
How are you managing that?
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Fortunately, the parents are also staying calm
and like dealing with thesituation really appropriately.
Of course they're concerned andhave their fears, but they also
all the parents and SNAPparticipants chose to still come
to Israel or send their kids toIsrael during a war because
they came at the end of Januaryand so it's not a big surprise.
(06:06):
Obviously, they didn't expect afull-scale war with Iran, but
again, it's not a shock and theHanachim are in really safe
hands with the program.
We're in contact with securityand all the levels of support
that we can get.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
I know that you're surrounded by lots of
Australians, hannah, both theShnoddies that you lead, but
also you're around lots of otherAustralians that have made
Aliyah Interested in whetheryou've noticed any differences
in the ways that the Australians, or perhaps your expat friends,
are responding to this crisisthan other Israelis.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
There is some differences.
On one hand, olim, like ingeneral, can get more scared and
we have less networks here, sowe're more vulnerable.
Lucky, the apartment I live inin Pedach Tikva has a really
good shelter, but I have friendsthat don't have that in their
apartments so they don't justhave family in the south or in
(07:04):
the north they can go to.
They have just maybe one othergroup of friends also in Petah
Tikva that they can go to andluckily there's space and we can
have people like crash on ourcouches and everything.
But the network is a lotsmaller so it makes us a lot
more vulnerable.
But then, on the other hand,while Israelis have more support
, they also have more people toworry about and more people who
(07:25):
get called up to reserve dutyand more people they know in
really not great situations.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So it's a little bit of a different experience in
more ways than that, but that'sjust one thing that I've noticed
At the start of our chat,hannah, you thanked us and you
said thank you for having voices, or platforming voices, from
people who are actually on theground.
Is that in response to what I'massuming is maybe some
(07:52):
frustration, that a lot of thevoices that Australians are
hearing from are from people whoare disconnected, who may not
have first-hand experience?
Speaker 3 (08:01):
I actually don't know .
I think I'm someone whogenerally follows the news and
like loves to listen to podcastsand like loves to read what
different people are sayingabout what's going on in Israel.
But, like in the last five days, I have not had either the
chance, the time or like themental capacity to
(08:22):
intellectually engage withwhat's going on.
And I don't know, I'm surethere's Israelis on the ground
able to do that, but I thinkit's also something that maybe
people from a far more capableof digesting at the moment.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
What have you been doing to keep sane and to centre
yourself and ground yourself?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Well, I guess I'm as like my experience as a madrugah
.
Like the leader of the 12australians here, I was thrown
into the the job of making surethey're okay, making sure
everything's running smoothly,managing their emotions.
So I think keeping busy hasbeen like also a blessing for me
at this time.
(09:04):
I know like the feeling on theground.
It kind of feels almost likelockdown, obviously in a very
different way, but people arealso quite restless.
They're stuck in theirapartments.
They don't want to travel farfrom shelters.
So right now it's okay.
People are, you know,entertaining themselves,
distracting themselves, but it'sprobably only a matter of time
before more Israelis go a bitinsane in this situation,
(09:27):
because being stuck in anapartment isn't good for so many
reasons.
So I definitely feel gratefulto be doing the job that I'm
doing right now on Kibbutz EinHashafet, as well as like being
outside.
Luckily, kibbutzim are likethat, but not like all Israelis
have that privilege.
I asked what?
Youbutzim are like that, butnot like all Israelis have that
privilege.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I asked what you're doing for yourself, Hannah, and
you just said what you're doingfor other people and that your
thoughts are with others andthat you're distracting yourself
by taking care of yourshnuddies.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
As in yeah, it's often it's intertwined.
But, yeah, for myself, Idefinitely have like close
support friends that I speak tooften, which is really great.
Just watching tv in breaks thatI can is is really helpful.
Yeah, sleeping a lot.
I think the more, the moreanxious you are often, the more
lack of sleep that you'regetting, and I've also been
(10:21):
doing some guided meditationsthat they're being really
helpful.
I think that, like in stressfulsituations, a lot of people
cannot engage in that and Ididn't expect myself to be able
to, but it actually really helps.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
So, Hannah, you've written for us before about your
experience of making LER duringa time of upheaval, because,
from memory, you left, I thinkafter October 7th, didn't you?
You moved to Israel sometime in2024?
.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Yeah, at the start of 2024.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
In your piece that you wrote for the Jewish
Independent, you acknowledgedyou know that it seems
counterintuitive to move toIsrael during a time of conflict
, but you gave some good reasonsas to why you were compelled to
move to Israel.
But does this latest war haveyou considering returning to
Australia?
Speaker 3 (11:13):
I don't like extreme statements, but my statement
back to this is really not atall.
Dfat sent out links to fill out.
If you're an Australian citizen, we can get you back or at
least have your details, and I'mreally grateful that the
Australian government is doingthat.
But I personally feel no need.
I feel really safe here,despite everything that's going
(11:34):
on and, yeah, I'm notconsidering it.
I'm sure there's other Olim likeme who are just feeling really
grounded here and content withour decision.
But at the same time I'm surethere's other Olim In fact I
know a few other Olim that thiswould definitely rock them.
But there are Olim that werealready feeling rocked by the
(11:58):
last couple of years in Israeland I think, with everything
with making Aliyah, with movingback to the country you're from,
it's a buildup.
It's never like a drasticchange that happens.
I also feel grateful to be inIsrael in a way, because I know
there's over 150,000 Israelisstranded abroad and that's also
(12:19):
a really difficult experience.
I know parents who left theirtoddler with their grandparents
for two days.
They were just taking a weekendoff to themselves and now
they're separated from theirtoddler or other young people,
separated from their partners ortheir families, so that would
also be like a really reallyhard experience as well.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
I love the way you're just reframing everything,
Hannah.
This is science of someonethat's very resilient, which is
what you need to call Israelhome, Tammy.
Any other questions for HannahMazzynski?
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Well, I'd love for Hannah to have a nap.
Thank you so much for chattingwith us today.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Pleasure.
Thanks for having me on andalso good night to you guys.
It's late there.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Our second conversation today with an
Australian on the ground isGideon Cohen.
Gideon is a Melbourne-basedjournalist who writes regularly
for the Jewish Independent andhas also been published in Right
Now, the Citizen and theJunction.
Gideon Cohen, how are you.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
I'm alive, so that's all that matters.
I'm very sleep deprived, butthat's the least memories right
now.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Where do we find you right now?
Speaker 4 (13:43):
I'm in Tel Aviv, so like near you right now.
I'm in Tel Aviv so like nearsort of the Golden Beach area of
Tel Aviv.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
And what was it that took you there?
Because you are based inMelbourne.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
So in July I'm supposed to do a journalism
fellowship program withBirthright so it was meant to be
at Weichmann University with 40Jews from America, australia,
europe, like all over the worldsort of coming together.
It's like creatives, artists,content creators, journalists.
We were going to do a monthlong intensive studying Israel
and sort of looking at how tocombat misinformation online.
(14:15):
We're going to find out in liketwo days if that program is
still going ahead.
And then June was meant to bemy holiday, part of like my trip
.
I was going to come for threeweeks and enjoy some time in Tel
Aviv and then do the program inJuly.
Okay, it's turned into a worktrip.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
now it has.
Yes, Can we all be claimed backon tax, which I suppose?
Speaker 4 (14:35):
is Pretty much.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
I turned into an accidental war correspondent All
jokes aside, what is it like atthe moment out on the streets
of Tel Aviv?
Speaker 4 (14:43):
I mean it very much ebbs and flows.
So sometimes you'll walk aroundthe streets and it's completely
dead and there's nothing open,but then you'll stumble upon
cafes that are buzzing withpeople.
The promenade on the beachalways has people all over it,
like guys are working out atlike the outdoor gym and people
are going for runs.
People are just lying out onthe beach.
You'll have a few hours, sortof, where it gets very quiet and
(15:06):
ghost town-like and then othertimes it's completely packed
with people who just are gettingon with their lives.
I mean, I went out for dinnerlast night at a restaurant that
wasn't technically meant to beopen it was takeaway and then
enjoyed dinner by the beach andthen two hours later I was in a
shelter.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Yeah, well, look for someone who lived through a
Melbourne lockdown.
I'm sure you know exactly whatthis experience is like.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
That's what it looks like.
In the first few days it wasvery Melbourne lockdown vibes,
but I think now people are justmaking the most of whatever few
hours they have in the day.
I also saw because a lot ofpeople got stuck here for gay
pride and then everything wascancelled, so people were
throwing illegal partiesthroughout the first few days of
the missile attacks.
People were throwing illegalparties throughout the first few
days of the missile attacks soI was seeing on instagram story
(15:48):
like people like in like crazyillegal apartment parties and
then topless in the shelter andthen back up to the parties like
up and down all night okay, soyou were saying that you but you
weren't participating in it.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 4 (15:59):
no, no, I was not.
It was all over my instagramstories, though.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Because if you were to have participated, there'd be
no judgment from me.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
No, I was trying to stay focused and do a lot of
work, as much research andreporting as I could.
I was like I want to captureevery little moment I can, and
then I've also just beenobsessively glued to my phone.
So I'm like listening to likelive Twitter commentary spaces
where they have likeIraniananian and israeli
activists speaking.
They're getting people insideof iran who are anti-regime
calling in.
I'm like following like openintel sources.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Um ignorant question.
When so you said you went outfor dinner last night.
If a siren were to have goneoff, what would you have done?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
um, there are shelters everywhere within like
a minute's walk because we wereon the beach walks.
There's like one beneath the usembassy where we were nearby.
There's one next to the kingdavid tower where we were.
We were and the staff just saidlook, if we get an alert, we'll
take all of you over to the,like the nearest shelter next
ignorant question are theretoilets in all the shelters?
I'm not sure about all of them,but some of them.
(17:04):
I mean, there was one nightwhere I met up with a friend who
was staying at the Hilton Hoteland I got to stay in his
shelter for the night, whichlooks like a restaurant, so it's
got booth seating and tablesand catering and soda fountains.
And then there are some thatare just very basic concrete
bunkers with nothing in them andgideon, with your journalist's
(17:29):
hat on.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
What are you making of how israelis are responding
to this?
Because it seems there isexpressions of just, you know,
complete and utter disbelief,through to pride and euphoria at
the audaciousness and successof this attack, through to, you
know, obviously, devastation forsome people, given that lives
(17:54):
have been lost and that there isvery significant damage in some
parts of the country, albeitquite isolated.
Give us a sense of the breadthof responses.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
I mean, the amazing thing you'll see in the shelters
is just everyone very muchcoming together and taking care
of each other and just sort oflike.
There's a very strong sense oflike everyone, like being very
communal and like looking outfor one another and making sure
everyone gets into the shelterin time and everyone sits there
and people comfort each other.
I was like making friends withpeople in the shelter in my
neighborhood last night.
(18:25):
So one was a girl from New Yorkwho's actually Persian and
Jewish, so she's got family inIran right now trying to escape.
Then we were just joking as weleft the shelter like might see
you in a couple hours.
Then we did.
What I'm reading from the mediahere is that it's very much a
non-partisan issue in terms ofstriking the Islamic Republic.
I think everyone's sort ofunited on the fact that it needs
(18:46):
to happen.
I think people are prettyshocked at the fact that you
know they've struck central TelAviv.
Like the first night when thevery first round of missiles
from Iran started and thenpeople started getting sort of
live Twitter feeds and seeingthat they'd hit Tel Aviv and we
were hearing the booms, I thinkthe mood very much changed.
It became very, very real.
(19:08):
And now I mean I can't speak foreveryone, but me personally
like looking at what this regimehas done with a few ballistic
missiles they have managed toland.
Can you imagine if they had anuke?
Can you imagine if that threathad been left to continue for
two more years and they gottheir hands on a nuclear weapon?
Like this is, with all the bombshelters and all the aerial
(19:30):
defense system israel has.
Like look at what they've donein a few days and where they're
targeting as well.
So at this, stage.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
You're greeting it with with some sense of fun and
you seem to be relativelyrelaxed about the whole thing.
How much longer do you thinkyou can maintain the good
spirits that you're in Gideon?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
I mean, there's not really a choice, is there?
I mean, I can't fly out of hereLike I'm going to be here until
this is over with.
So I'm not someone who getsoverly anxious about things that
are out of my control.
All I can do is keep my phoneby my hand, check the app and go
to the nearest shelter and waitthere until I'm instructed to
do it otherwise.
So I'm trying to put myfeelings aside about what's
happening.
(20:10):
I also can't really processwhat's happening because I'm in
it right now.
The only thing I can do is postlive updates online about
what's happening and keep upwith the news.
So I'm trying to just keep mybrain in work mode.
I'm sure in a week's time ortwo I'll crash and finally get
some sleep time or two I'llcrash and finally get some sleep
(20:31):
.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
As someone who uses humor to cope with difficult
circumstances, I'm curious toknow how you and your friends
are, or if you're using humorthere's.
I know that in previoussituations similar to this one,
I know that I had.
I was being sent memes frompeople in Israel cracking jokes
are you at that point yet, or isit too soon for you?
Speaker 4 (20:54):
oh yeah, the memes have been constant have they
been funny?
Speaker 1 (20:59):
yes can you describe some of them oh?
Speaker 4 (21:03):
I'm trying to think of one.
There was one I saw that likechaotic jewish on instagram
posted and it was like a pictureof a labrador and it was like
iranians standing with israeland then it was like a feral,
like wolf, and it was likewestern activists standing with
the regime.
Because that's the other thingI didn't mention is like you'll
never hear any sort ofanti-iranian sentiment here from
(21:24):
israelis, like everyone's verymuch under the understanding
that this is not a war withIranian people and that they
want Iranian people to be free.
And I'm seeing a lot of Israelifriends like posting about like
unity with Iranian people andthat it's a fight with the
regime.
I had someone I posted one ofthose sort of like Instagrams
like a statement from ElikaLabon about like unity between
our people, and I had a personfrom Melbourne just reply free
(21:51):
Palestine.
I also had someone else that Iused to be friends with like
sending me like abusive messagesin between running to shelters,
um, the other night saying thatI'm on the wrong side of
history for what I'm posting,which all I'd posted was footage
of me going to shelters andlike a message of solidarity
between Iranian and Jewish andIsraeli people, and that
apparently was very offensive tothem to that white person in
Melbourne yes, and then I um, Iknew they were going to block me
(22:11):
anyway, so I just kept sendingthem like sort of like
pro-Israeli, iranian content,and then finally, it was like a
statement from Ella Colobonsaying that, as a Middle Eastern
woman, no one oppresses himmore than a white leftist.
And then he crashed out andblocked me.
So I was like that was.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Probably felt a bit too seen at that point.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
And then the sirens went off one minute later.
I was like okay, well anyway,priorities.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Well, on that note, I think it's time to call this
conversation to a close.
Gideon, thank you for bringingyour on-the-ground insights and
your memes and sharing with us alittle bit of life in Tel Aviv
right now.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
One more question.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
Gideon, is there anythingyou're ashamed to admit?
Speaker 4 (22:56):
I mean it's not really good for, like, the name
of your podcast, but it's kindof the opposite, because I had a
lot of like blowback for evenjust giving like vague support
to Israel in the last two years.
I mean, like 80% of my friendsfrom like so like the queer
progressive scene in Melbourneno longer speak to me since
October 7th, so I knew that theywould.
There'd be blowback for me evenjust being here and then
(23:17):
actually just being in like anactive, like missile strikes,
like constantly knowing thatpeople are actually losing their
lives.
I've never cared less aboutwhat I'm posting online and
who's looking at it.
And what's fascinating as wellis I made a journalism page
before this started and it'sgained like a hundred followers
in like 24 hours since.
It's all kicked off.
And a lot of people who don'tfollow that page are looking at
(23:40):
every single story, sort of playby play, and these are people
who post very anti-Israelcontent on their Instagrams, so
they're obsessively watchingthis in real time, not checking
in to ask if I'm okay or am Ialive.
The only thing I can really doright now is just show the
reality of what's happening here, because I know I sound like
I'm doing fine, but it is ahorrific situation and people
(24:01):
are losing their lives, and thisis completely unprecedented in
Israel's history.
So the only thing I can do tobe useful is to just show it to
the world and show what thisfeels like.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Yeah, no, that's a great response.
Thank you for doing that.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Thank you so much for being with us tonight.
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
That was Gideon Cohen , and now you'll hear Dasha's
conversation with Kylie MooreGilbert, who's an accomplished
author, university academicspeaker and political
commentator.
Her writing includes thebest-selling 2022 memoir, the
Uncaged Sky.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Kylie survived 804 days as a hostage to Iran's IRGC
, accused of being a Mossadagent, an MI6 agent and even a
spy for Australia.
Here's my conversation withKylie Moore Gilbert.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Hey Dash, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Kylie, you know the IRGC firsthand.
How does their institutionalculture, their sense of
revolutionary mission, theirparanoia shape how they're
likely to be responding to whatis arguably the biggest
challenge to their power since1979.
?
Speaker 5 (25:28):
Yeah, look, there is no one IRGC.
I'd make that point to startwith.
The IRGC is a behemoth.
It's got factions in everypossible realm.
You can imagine everything frombusiness interests
pharmaceutical industry, oilindustry, import-export, all the
way through to the business offunneling missiles to proxies
(25:51):
and fighting wars in parts ofthe region and repressing its
own people.
It does everything.
It's kind of a parallel statein a way, within Iran.
So you have multiple factionswithin the IRGC and they don't
always see eye to eye, and youalso have power struggles
between senior elites as well.
(26:12):
So it's really really hard,especially right now when you
have such chaos in Iran and somany top guys have obviously
been eliminated, it's hard toknow what's going on there.
Really, I can imagine thatthey're enraged.
They've got egg on their face.
Sometimes, when you corner adangerous animal, it lashes out
(26:34):
much more than it wouldordinarily, and so I think we'll
probably see quite a bit ofthat coming from the IRGC.
Their ideology is such that atleast it's professed to be as
such that they are willing toessentially fight to the death.
You know, there's a real cultof martyrdom.
People are lauded andcelebrated who return in in body
(26:55):
bags from fighting holy wars in, in syria or lebanon or
wherever it may be, iraq and um.
There's very much sort of acelebration of the you know of
shuhada, of martyrdom withinIRGC ranks.
So be a sizable faction withinthat organization right now
which would be willing tocontinue fighting, no matter the
(27:17):
stakes, and never give in andnever compromise, which is
actually extremely scary giventhe precarious situation of
regular people in Iran right now.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
So I'm glad that you mentioned the factions.
Given that Israel strikesappear to have killed several
IRGC commanders and obviouslytheir nuclear scientists, and
that some of the seniorofficials are said to be looking
over their shoulders or hidingin bunkers, how would you
(27:46):
anticipate the power dynamicsmight be shifting right now
within their security apparatusand who might be filling the
vacuum left by the deaths ofthose leaders?
And does this perhaps create anopportunity for other factions,
maybe factions that might adopta different approach to the
(28:08):
previous leadership?
Speaker 5 (28:10):
So the primary issue here is that the guy at the top,
ayatollah Ali Khamenei, isstill in place.
He's still calling the shotsand he's essentially the
dictator of Iran.
It's to him personally, on anindividual level, that the IRGC
pledges allegiance, not to thepeople of Iran, not to the
Iranian constitution, but to thesupreme leader, whom the
(28:33):
Iranians call Rahbar, as theirguiding light, I guess.
And so because he is stillthere and he has considerable
religious legitimacy among theIRGC and other pro-regime groups
, he's still calling the shotsand making the decisions.
So, for example, should Iranultimately bend the knee and
(28:54):
agree to some kind ofhumiliating negotiation with the
United States to give up on itsnuclear program and accept all
kinds of bitter terms that theynever would have wanted to
accept ordinarily, this wouldhave to be Khamenei's decision,
despite or in spite of hugenumbers of IRGC and other
(29:15):
hardline factions in Iran thatwould prefer never to swallow
that bitter pill and wouldprefer to sort of fight to the
very end.
So he's still calling the shots.
But definitely you have to, andyou always have.
You've had multiple camps in theIranian regime, some that are
more dovish than others and somethat are more hardline and
hawkish.
You've got people like theforeign minister Arachchi, who,
(29:39):
despite linkages to the hardlinefactions and the IRGC, is sort
of seeming a bit more like asensible, more moderate for that
regime person and saying, yes,not, you know, trying sort of
seeming a bit more like asensible, more moderate for that
regime person and saying, yes,not, you know, trying sort of a
bit of historical revisionismand saying, oh, we never left
the negotiations with the UnitedStates and we want to sit down
with the United States and wewant to talk and we're, you know
(29:59):
, we're not after nuclearweapons, and sort of trying to
project that image.
And then you've obviously gothardline elements, including
within the parliament, themajlis, who have been saying,
even a few days ago, let's leavethe NPT, the nonproliferation
treaty, let's sprint for a bombright now, basically.
So you've got a whole gamut ofdifferent views in Iran and I
(30:21):
think, as always, it will bewhatever the supreme leader
decides, which is usually, youknow, usually dictated by regime
survival and you know his gripon power, yeah.
What he decides will determinethings.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Kylie.
Given that it all rests on theSupreme Leader of Iran, the
86-year-old Supreme Leader AliKhamenei old supreme leader Ali
Khamenei, can you give us someinsight into his character and
how you anticipate he might beresponding to Israel's attack
(30:57):
and to the escalation?
Speaker 5 (30:59):
Like most elderly people, in my view, khamenei is
quite set in his ways, quiteslow to change direction.
It's hard for him to graspradical new developments Because
of his inflexibility.
I think he's quite predictablein that sense and this could be
(31:22):
one reason why he has not beentargeted for assassination and
why he's been retained in place,because it's kind of a better
the devil you know situation.
If he should disappear andthere's no official successor to
him and no universally acceptedsuccessor, which obviously
looks like a foolish error onhis part, to get to age 86 and
(31:44):
not have any clear successor iskind of mad really.
But that was due to powerstruggles within the regime and,
I think, his attempts to sortof stay the top dog for as long
as possible and not create arival.
So, given that he's sopredictable in a sense and he's
a known entity, he has shownhimself to be a rational actor.
(32:05):
He's obviously extremelyhardline and ideological and
fully bought into the ideologyof the Islamic Republic.
But you know he's been in powerfor more than three decades.
He's relatively predictable inhis decision-making and he has
compromised in the past when theregime's survival is at stake.
So it's possible that you knowit was judged that keeping him
(32:26):
there is better than thealternative which is at stake.
So it's possible that it wasjudged that keeping him there is
better than the alternative,which is some unknown faction,
some unknown group, potentiallymilitarized group or individual
taking power with all theuncertainty that that could
yield.
So I think overall he's anelderly guy.
He's very unwell.
He's considered to have hadcancer for a number of years.
(32:46):
Now he's paralyzed down oneside.
He's got this kind of shriveledhand that doesn't move because
of a failed assassinationattempt in the 1980s that he's
been kind of living with eversince.
I feel like he's thisinflexible old guy, very hard
line but predictable, and maybeit's better.
(33:07):
The devil you know.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
His capacity for compromise that you mentioned
before.
I'm expecting that you wouldn'tpredict it would extend to
handing over the nuclearcapability and acquiescing to
Israel and the United States'demands.
Speaker 5 (33:25):
I actually think if I had to put money on it and it's
a really, really difficultthing to do right now, of course
I probably would expect him toactually eventually acquiesce.
And that's because thealternative is simply the level
of chaos that could ensue shouldthey just fight on and see
(33:46):
their regime crumble around them.
I mean, they've lost thenuclear program anyway, right,
particularly if the Americans dodecide to step in and drop a
massive bomb on the Fordownuclear mountain.
I mean, it's a massive mountainwith a bunker under it full of
nuclear material, which is themain sticking point and the main
difficulty that Israel isexperiencing in completely
(34:08):
dismembering the nuclear programaltogether.
So you know, if they keep goingand they don't compromise, they
face the loss of their nuclearprogram and potentially far more
than that significant face.
And they've already lost alltheir deterrent, you know all
(34:30):
their credibility with regionalplayers, internally, within
their own support base, withinthe eyes of the people who
broadly don't support them.
They've already lost thatlegitimacy anyway.
Should they sign off onsomething with the US, it would
be a humiliating and bitter blowfor them to have to take on.
But regime survival trumpseverything and I think Khamenei
(34:51):
has shown in the past that youknow, he is willing to make
these compromises if the veryfuture of humanity regime he's
dedicated his life to is underthreat.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Interested in the implications.
In the domestic context in Iran.
It's been said a lot in recenttimes that the regime has
decreasing levels of supportfrom the Iranian people.
In fact, netanyahu hasexplicitly appealed to the
Iranian people, saying that thisis your opportunity to stand up
(35:24):
and essentially seize thismoment to finally overthrow the
regime and the IRGC.
You've got an interesting takeon that that I want to get to in
a moment, but first off, juston that question, could we see
that moment?
Speaker 5 (35:41):
I think that's a really excellent observation,
dash, and I think you're right.
There's a strong danger here.
No matter what the regimedecides to do whether it
negotiates and brings an end tothis conflict or keeps fighting
for a bit longer there's areally really strong risk for
the regime that they will beweakened so greatly that the
(36:02):
people will once again rise upand try and overthrow them.
I'm not necessarily predictingthat outcome, though I think
it's too hasty, particularlybecause all of the bad guys
still have all of the guns, andthe Iranian people the ones that
took to the streets in 2022,2023, with the Women Life
Freedom Movement, for examplethey don't have any weapons,
(36:24):
they don't have any ability toremove this regime by force, nor
will any kind of externallyimposed regime change work.
You know, I think decades ofWestern involvement in the
Middle East has shown that ifthere's to be regime change, it
has to be internal.
It has to come from the Iranianpeople.
So the danger here is that Ithink the regime internally will
(36:48):
splinter.
I think that perhaps there's agreater likelihood of that.
You have so many factions, youhave so many competing interests
, particularly if somethinghappens to the Supreme Leader.
But even if he remains in place.
Keeping a stranglehold on somany competing interests is
going to be tough.
When everybody is so weakened,when the economy is so weakened
(37:09):
and they're licking their woundsideologically as well, as you
know, figuratively, it's goingto be really tough to hold that
together.
So you might see a kind of miniwell, you might see a lot of
infighting within the regimewhich could then weaken it
further, which could lead thepeople to, you know, attract
defections, for example, tobreak them up altogether,
(37:31):
because, as we've seen inhistory, most revolutions, you
don't get rid of all of the badguys.
You need to actually convincesome of the bad guys to come
over to your side, convince someof the bad guys to come over to
your side, and so I thinkthat's the only real pathway
forward is to splinter theregime and encourage some
elements of it to defect to theopposition, which did not happen
(37:52):
in all of the protest movementsthat have occurred in Iran in
the past.
But who knows now?
I think it's a real risk forthe regime and I'm sure it's at
the forefront of their minds,but the path forward's not clear
and it's probably going to bevery bloody and chaotic if that
does happen.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
You've penned an article just today for the Age
cautioning Israel's involvementin any regime change.
The headline reads Iranianssupport Israel assassinating
their oppressors, at least fornow.
What is it that you want to sayabout the way that Israel might
(38:32):
be manoeuvring to contribute tothe overthrow of the regime?
Speaker 5 (38:39):
Israel's stated aim is to dismantle the nuclear
program and, yes, netanyahu andothers have made comments about
regime change, but they haven'texplicitly said that their
objective is to overthrow theIranian regime, and I think it
would be very unwise of them topursue that.
I think they should focussolely on the nuclear program
(39:01):
and potentially the ballisticmissiles as well, getting rid of
those and then getting the hellout and leaving the Iranian
regime, or whatever remains ofit, to fight amongst itself and
figure out what next.
I mean you know.
So I think going after regimechange is, as I said,
ill-advised.
(39:22):
I can't predict what they'll door what their objectives are,
but I think, as I was sayingearlier, the Iranian people have
to decide that question.
And especially, you know, Ithink the point I made in my
article was that if Israel takesactions that alienate the
Iranian people, which are anatural constituency of support
(39:43):
for that same aim of removingthe regime and the nuclear
program, the Iranian peopledon't want either At least 80%
of the population want theIslamic Republic gone but
alienating the people by masscivilian casualties, some of the
statements that have come outof Israeli ministers, like
Israel Katz, saying they'regoing to burn Tehran and the
(40:04):
residents of Tehran will pay theprice for the Islamic
Republic's bombings of Israel.
This kind of stuff, even Trumpsaying that the entire city of
Tehran needs to be emptied andevacuated.
I mean, that's not possible.
These kinds of things arereally, really concerning
because that's, you know, notdistinguishing between the
(40:25):
regime and the people, and itdoes risk pushing some of those
people back into the arms of theregime and it undermines the
broader objective, which is toessentially create the
conditions, perhaps, throughwhich those people could
eventually overthrow the regimethemselves once the bombs stop
falling.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
What is the largest kind of block or the most likely
rival to the regime that wouldcome presumably, I'm guessing,
from secular Iran or the sort ofnon-IRGC aligned parts of Iran?
Tell us a little bit aboutessentially the opposition.
I guess it's very difficult tospeak a lot about them in Iran
(41:09):
and certainly we don't hear alot about them in Australia.
Speaker 5 (41:13):
Yeah, you're so right .
I mean, look, there is noofficial opposition, there are
no even political parties inIran.
They have not allowed any groupto flourish.
Even, for example, tradeunionists, rival Shia Islamic
(41:34):
religious movements which areslightly different from that of
the Islamic Republic, clampeddown upon and stamped out
immediately.
You know, anything that couldbe construed as a political
rival or ideological rival isdecimated in Iran, including
fellow travelers ideologicallyout immediately.
Anything that could beconstrued as a political rival
or ideological rival isdecimated in Iran, including
fellow travelers ideologically.
So it's very difficult for anyone group to emerge.
You've got all of these groupsin the diaspora, many of which
(41:56):
would aspire to and would loveto come back and sweep into Iran
and take control and be thesaviour of their country.
But I don't think they have anyreal legitimacy with Iranians
on the ground and could actuallycause more trouble.
And you know, I'm thinkingespecially of the Pahlavis, the
monarchists, the followers ofthe son of the last shah of Iran
(42:18):
who was kicked down in 1979.
These people have a very loudvoice and are very well
organised in the diaspora.
They do have support insideIran, maybe, let's say, 5% of
the population.
Max would probably say thatthey're ardent monarchists.
But you're never going to seebroad popular support for the
(42:39):
return of the son of the formerShah, and the idea that people
think that that is a prospect atall is just bonkers to me, to
be honest.
Speaker 2 (42:48):
Clearly you've got lots of contacts still in Iran
friends that you're in touchwith.
But have you got muchconnection with Iranians in
Australia, with the Iraniandiaspora here?
Speaker 5 (43:01):
I do.
I have quite a few lovelyIranian friends that I've met
here in Australia.
The Iranian-Australiancommunity is really wonderful.
They've been really supportiveof me on a personal level, but
also extremely loud andoutspoken about human rights in
Iran and the plight of theirfriends, family and compatriots
(43:25):
back there.
Particularly in 2022 when theWomen Life Freedom movement
emerged, they were really activelobbying parliament, doing
protests, doing events, tryingto draw attention to the cause
and speaking in the media aswell.
So I got to know a lot of themthrough that.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
Have you heard from any of them since this wars
began?
Speaker 5 (43:46):
Oh, I've had stacks of conversations with Iranian
Australians.
I mean, everybody's checking inwith everybody else.
You know, are your loved onessafe?
I've heard all kinds ofreactions, depending on people's
politics.
So some are kind of as peoplein the diaspora want to be right
, like they have less skin inthe game so they can be more
radical.
So some of them are like youknow, drop a bomb on Khamenei's
(44:07):
head right now and like goIsrael, let's just like destroy
this regime, go for full regimechange.
There's some really gung-hopeople out there.
And then there are plenty ofothers who have a lot of
extended family in Iran.
You know parents, brothers,sisters, who are absolutely
terrified and aren't sleeping,are calling their loved ones,
you know, constantly trying toorganise safe routes for them to
(44:31):
escape Tehran, places for themto stay.
You know from here in Australia, and are just terrified, think
the whole thing is horrific andwant it to be over as soon as
possible.
Are just terrified, think thewhole thing is horrific and want
it to be over as soon aspossible.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
The regime was already under really significant
international sanctions,economic pressure.
How much does its economicvulnerability constrain their
potential future militaryresponses, and can the country
even afford a prolonged conflictwith Israel at all?
Speaker 5 (45:06):
That's such a good question and, in short, no, it
cannot.
The Iranian economy has been onits knees for, I'd say, a
decade at least, basically sincethe very first sanctions were
imposed a couple of decades agowhen it first started this
nuclear business in themid-2000s, particularly since
(45:27):
the nuclear deal collapsed, theObama-negotiated nuclear deal
that was signed in 2015,.
Particularly since then, trumpobviously imposed really heavy
sanctions.
Biden was a little bit like,like, unserious about enforcing
them, particularly on oil, andthere are crazy charts and
(45:49):
graphs out there showing amassive spike in Iranian oil
exports, particularly on theblack market, after Biden came
into office.
But you know the strangleholdon their economy remains and you
know the rial, for example.
Their currencies are basicallyworthless.
It's sort of devalued, to theextent that I've been hearing
(46:09):
that Iranians aren't even usingcash anymore and they're going
to the bazaar and buying goldlike chunks of gold and keeping
all their savings in goldbecause the cash just has no
value.
So, yeah, their economy is onits knees.
The poverty levels in Iran Imean Iran is really a
middle-class country.
It's not a third-world countryat all.
(46:29):
It's very, very developed, higheducation levels, high literacy
levels, but now apparently morethan 50% of the country is
below the poverty line, you know, and it was probably half of
that a generation ago.
So it's some.
You know.
It's really, reallyheartbreaking what they've done
to the economy of the countryand this is why you saw, you
(46:51):
know, in a lot of the pastprotest movements, some of the
chants they would use on thestreets were, you know, not, not
Syria, lebanon.
I give my heart and soul toIran, which means you're giving
all of our money to Syria andLebanon and you're not spending
it on the taxpayers, on your ownpeople.
(47:11):
Largely that's oil money,because the Iranian economy is
almost solely funded through oiland gas wealth.
But there's a lot of resentmentthere that hundreds of billions
have been given to terroristgroups across the Middle East
and to the Assad regime andclients in Iraq and et cetera,
(47:32):
and the Iranian people areliterally starving and living
below the poverty line.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
Just to close out, given everything we know about
the Supreme Leader, about theregime and about the various
factions that play within theIRGC, give us a sense of what a
potential off-ramp for theregime might be out of this
conflict.
Speaker 5 (47:58):
I think saving face, as you mentioned, is really
important, and obviously it'srelative.
The amount of face that theregime States and European
powers as we saw in the JCPOAearlier, which in all likelihood
(48:26):
is going to curtail the nuclearambitions of Iran entirely zero
enrichment, zero building ofany facilities whatsoever, this
kind of thing, but, I guess,affords them the legitimacy of
remaining in place as the rulersof Iran, as the regime calling
the shots and, I guess, wouldafford some kind of security
(48:49):
guarantee to Iran in the shortterm that Israel won't continue
to attack them, that there willbe a cessation of hostilities,
potentially waivers of oilsanctions to enable them to
rebuild, waivers of oilsanctions to enable them to
rebuild this kind of thing couldgive them something of a
face-saving gesture.
I think, though, the regime'sreputation internally, within
(49:11):
its die-hard ideologicalsupporters, is ruined, no matter
what they do.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Kylie, thank you so much for coming on.
I feel really lucky to havespoken with someone Australian
that has such a deep insightinto Iranian politics and into
what's going on, and thank youagain, appreciate your time.
Speaker 5 (49:31):
Oh, thanks for having me on, dash.
It's lovely to meet you as well, and you had some excellent
questions.
So, yeah, I'm really happy tobe involved.
Speaker 2 (49:39):
That's it.
For another week You've beenlistening to A Shame to Admit
with me, Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
And me Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
This episode was mixed and edited by Nick King,
with theme music by DonovanJenks.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
As always.
Thanks for your support.
Stay safe and speak soon.
Thank you.
Hey everyone, welcome back to Ashamed to Admit the
podcast where we say and ask thequiet things out loud and
occasionally we direct ourattention to the breaking news
of the day.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
This week's episode is going to be a little
different.
This week's episode is going tobe a little different.
We had another conversationplanned and recorded, ready to
go, and then, as you're allaware, war broke out between
Israel and Iran.
Today you're going to hearthree voices on what's currently
unfolding.
First up, we have two youngAustralian Jews in Israel.
(00:42):
They'll be bringing us theirperspective on what they're
seeing.
What they're hearing and whatthey're feeling as missiles rain
down on Israel and as theregion edges closer to a war
unlike anything we've seen inliving memory.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
That's right Dash.
We, like many of our listeners,have been sending our thoughts
and prayers to loved ones inIsrael, but we wanted to do
something more tangible, likegiving a voice or a platform to
the people actually livingthrough the headlines we simply
see on the news or social media.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
And at the same time, we know many of you have lots
of questions about Iran.
What can we expect next fromthe Iranian regime and, in
particular, the IRGC, theIslamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps?
Speaker 1 (01:34):
And to that end, we were very fortunate to have Iran
watcher, political scientist,academic, writer and friend I'm
ashamed to admit Kylie MooreGilbert, join us today.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
So the episode, it's going to be a bit raw.
A bit rough because we're goingto be putting this out pretty
quickly.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
And I'm recording from a motel in rural New South
Wales with dodgy internet and noexternal microphone.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
But stick around because this is essential
listening right now.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
He's Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
She's Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Welcome to the Jewish Independent Podcast.
Ashamed to Admit.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
First up today we have Hannah Majinski.
She's a graduate of theUniversity of Melbourne and was
involved in variousMelbourne-based community
organisations, including KehelakKalenu and the youth movement
Habanim Draw.
Hannah made Aliyah at the startof 2024 and is currently the
(02:42):
Madrika or youth leader ofHabanim Draw's Shnut program.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
In our interview you'll hear Hannah talk about
Olim, and Olim are basicallyjust the people who've moved to
Israel from the diaspora as partof the Jewish immigration
process Hannah.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
How are you both going?
Speaker 2 (03:03):
More importantly, how are you going, Hannah?
You're the one we're concernedabout right now.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Okay, well, thanks for having me.
I feel like it's important tohave voices on the ground, so
appreciate that.
Honestly, I'm really tired.
I feel like, yeah, all themissiles have come at nighttime,
so sleep has been reallydisjointed and, yeah, been
really disjointed and yeah, lastnight, for example, it was 11pm
, 4.40am and then 8.40am, so Ihad a very disjointed sleep, but
(03:33):
I'm safe and that's whatmatters.
Are you sleeping in the bunker?
That's in your apartment.
No, so I'm actually not in myapartment.
I'm a leader of the AustralianSHNAP program for Habonim Draw,
so when all this started onFriday, I made the snap decision
to come up to a kibbutz in thenorth to be with the 12
(03:56):
khanachim participants who arestill there.
So there's not space for us tosleep in the bunker, but there's
enough space for us to come inthe nighttime, and our rooms are
really close.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Hannah, you mentioned that you are a leader of the
schnutt cohort for Hub and Imdra, so presumably the Australian-.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
The schnutties.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
The schnutties.
That's right.
Okay, so there are 12schnutties that you're leading
at the moment that you're closeby.
How are they holding up?
How are they responding to allof this?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
It's definitely way more stressful for them.
They chose to come here fortheir gap year but, unlike me,
they didn't commit to living inIsrael and all that comes with
it, so the first day or two wasa really big shock for them and
I had last year where I had alot of the sirens and the
notifications on the phone, butthis was really new to them.
(04:52):
But in saying that they've beenreally strong and really great.
They are getting more and moreused to it every day.
They're upset how much it'simpacting their schnapp and
their program.
They were meant to fly toAmerica to lead on hub and draw
camps there, but of course theairspace is closed, which is
really hard and disappointing.
But they also are reallyappreciative that they have a
(05:15):
shelter at the kibbutz thatthey're on that is underground
and really safe and like, aswe're seeing, not every israeli
is privileged enough to have ashelter in their building or a
safe enough one below ground.
So they're just really reallyglad that they're safe and what?
Speaker 1 (05:30):
about the parents, because I assume that, as in
your role as a Madriachal, youhave to deal with concerned or
anxious parents back inAustralia.
How are you managing that?
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Fortunately, the parents are also staying calm
and like dealing with thesituation really appropriately.
Of course they're concerned andhave their fears, but they also
all the parents and SNAPparticipants chose to still come
to Israel or send their kids toIsrael during a war because
they came at the end of Januaryand so it's not a big surprise.
(06:06):
Obviously, they didn't expect afull-scale war with Iran, but
again, it's not a shock and theHanachim are in really safe
hands with the program.
We're in contact with securityand all the levels of support
that we can get.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
I know that you're surrounded by lots of
Australians, hannah, both theShnoddies that you lead, but
also you're around lots of otherAustralians that have made
Aliyah Interested in whetheryou've noticed any differences
in the ways that the Australians, or perhaps your expat friends,
are responding to this crisisthan other Israelis.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
There is some differences.
On one hand, olim, like ingeneral, can get more scared and
we have less networks here, sowe're more vulnerable.
Lucky, the apartment I live inin Pedach Tikva has a really
good shelter, but I have friendsthat don't have that in their
apartments so they don't justhave family in the south or in
(07:04):
the north they can go to.
They have just maybe one othergroup of friends also in Petah
Tikva that they can go to andluckily there's space and we can
have people like crash on ourcouches and everything.
But the network is a lotsmaller so it makes us a lot
more vulnerable.
But then, on the other hand,while Israelis have more support
, they also have more people toworry about and more people who
(07:25):
get called up to reserve dutyand more people they know in
really not great situations.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So it's a little bit of a different experience in
more ways than that, but that'sjust one thing that I've noticed
At the start of our chat,hannah, you thanked us and you
said thank you for having voices, or platforming voices, from
people who are actually on theground.
Is that in response to what I'massuming is maybe some
(07:52):
frustration, that a lot of thevoices that Australians are
hearing from are from people whoare disconnected, who may not
have first-hand experience?
Speaker 3 (08:01):
I actually don't know .
I think I'm someone whogenerally follows the news and
like loves to listen to podcastsand like loves to read what
different people are sayingabout what's going on in Israel.
But, like in the last five days, I have not had either the
chance, the time or like themental capacity to
(08:22):
intellectually engage withwhat's going on.
And I don't know, I'm surethere's Israelis on the ground
able to do that, but I thinkit's also something that maybe
people from a far more capableof digesting at the moment.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
What have you been doing to keep sane and to centre
yourself and ground yourself?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Well, I guess I'm as like my experience as a madrugah
.
Like the leader of the 12australians here, I was thrown
into the the job of making surethey're okay, making sure
everything's running smoothly,managing their emotions.
So I think keeping busy hasbeen like also a blessing for me
at this time.
(09:04):
I know like the feeling on theground.
It kind of feels almost likelockdown, obviously in a very
different way, but people arealso quite restless.
They're stuck in theirapartments.
They don't want to travel farfrom shelters.
So right now it's okay.
People are, you know,entertaining themselves,
distracting themselves, but it'sprobably only a matter of time
before more Israelis go a bitinsane in this situation,
(09:27):
because being stuck in anapartment isn't good for so many
reasons.
So I definitely feel gratefulto be doing the job that I'm
doing right now on Kibbutz EinHashafet, as well as like being
outside.
Luckily, kibbutzim are likethat, but not like all Israelis
have that privilege.
I asked what?
Youbutzim are like that, butnot like all Israelis have that
privilege.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I asked what you're doing for yourself, Hannah, and
you just said what you're doingfor other people and that your
thoughts are with others andthat you're distracting yourself
by taking care of yourshnuddies.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
As in yeah, it's often it's intertwined.
But, yeah, for myself, Idefinitely have like close
support friends that I speak tooften, which is really great.
Just watching tv in breaks thatI can is is really helpful.
Yeah, sleeping a lot.
I think the more, the moreanxious you are often, the more
lack of sleep that you'regetting, and I've also been
(10:21):
doing some guided meditationsthat they're being really
helpful.
I think that, like in stressfulsituations, a lot of people
cannot engage in that and Ididn't expect myself to be able
to, but it actually really helps.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
So, Hannah, you've written for us before about your
experience of making LER duringa time of upheaval, because,
from memory, you left, I thinkafter October 7th, didn't you?
You moved to Israel sometime in2024?
.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Yeah, at the start of 2024.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
In your piece that you wrote for the Jewish
Independent, you acknowledgedyou know that it seems
counterintuitive to move toIsrael during a time of conflict
, but you gave some good reasonsas to why you were compelled to
move to Israel.
But does this latest war haveyou considering returning to
Australia?
Speaker 3 (11:13):
I don't like extreme statements, but my statement
back to this is really not atall.
Dfat sent out links to fill out.
If you're an Australian citizen, we can get you back or at
least have your details, and I'mreally grateful that the
Australian government is doingthat.
But I personally feel no need.
I feel really safe here,despite everything that's going
(11:34):
on and, yeah, I'm notconsidering it.
I'm sure there's other Olim likeme who are just feeling really
grounded here and content withour decision.
But at the same time I'm surethere's other Olim In fact I
know a few other Olim that thiswould definitely rock them.
But there are Olim that werealready feeling rocked by the
(11:58):
last couple of years in Israeland I think, with everything
with making Aliyah, with movingback to the country you're from,
it's a buildup.
It's never like a drasticchange that happens.
I also feel grateful to be inIsrael in a way, because I know
there's over 150,000 Israelisstranded abroad and that's also
(12:19):
a really difficult experience.
I know parents who left theirtoddler with their grandparents
for two days.
They were just taking a weekendoff to themselves and now
they're separated from theirtoddler or other young people,
separated from their partners ortheir families, so that would
also be like a really reallyhard experience as well.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
I love the way you're just reframing everything,
Hannah.
This is science of someonethat's very resilient, which is
what you need to call Israelhome, Tammy.
Any other questions for HannahMazzynski?
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Well, I'd love for Hannah to have a nap.
Thank you so much for chattingwith us today.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Pleasure.
Thanks for having me on andalso good night to you guys.
It's late there.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Our second conversation today with an
Australian on the ground isGideon Cohen.
Gideon is a Melbourne-basedjournalist who writes regularly
for the Jewish Independent andhas also been published in Right
Now, the Citizen and theJunction.
Gideon Cohen, how are you.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
I'm alive, so that's all that matters.
I'm very sleep deprived, butthat's the least memories right
now.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Where do we find you right now?
Speaker 4 (13:43):
I'm in Tel Aviv, so like near you right now.
I'm in Tel Aviv so like nearsort of the Golden Beach area of
Tel Aviv.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
And what was it that took you there?
Because you are based inMelbourne.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
So in July I'm supposed to do a journalism
fellowship program withBirthright so it was meant to be
at Weichmann University with 40Jews from America, australia,
europe, like all over the worldsort of coming together.
It's like creatives, artists,content creators, journalists.
We were going to do a monthlong intensive studying Israel
and sort of looking at how tocombat misinformation online.
(14:15):
We're going to find out in liketwo days if that program is
still going ahead.
And then June was meant to bemy holiday, part of like my trip
.
I was going to come for threeweeks and enjoy some time in Tel
Aviv and then do the program inJuly.
Okay, it's turned into a worktrip.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
now it has.
Yes, Can we all be claimed backon tax, which I suppose?
Speaker 4 (14:35):
is Pretty much.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
I turned into an accidental war correspondent All
jokes aside, what is it like atthe moment out on the streets
of Tel Aviv?
Speaker 4 (14:43):
I mean it very much ebbs and flows.
So sometimes you'll walk aroundthe streets and it's completely
dead and there's nothing open,but then you'll stumble upon
cafes that are buzzing withpeople.
The promenade on the beachalways has people all over it,
like guys are working out atlike the outdoor gym and people
are going for runs.
People are just lying out onthe beach.
You'll have a few hours, sortof, where it gets very quiet and
(15:06):
ghost town-like and then othertimes it's completely packed
with people who just are gettingon with their lives.
I mean, I went out for dinnerlast night at a restaurant that
wasn't technically meant to beopen it was takeaway and then
enjoyed dinner by the beach andthen two hours later I was in a
shelter.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Yeah, well, look for someone who lived through a
Melbourne lockdown.
I'm sure you know exactly whatthis experience is like.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
That's what it looks like.
In the first few days it wasvery Melbourne lockdown vibes,
but I think now people are justmaking the most of whatever few
hours they have in the day.
I also saw because a lot ofpeople got stuck here for gay
pride and then everything wascancelled, so people were
throwing illegal partiesthroughout the first few days of
the missile attacks.
People were throwing illegalparties throughout the first few
days of the missile attacks soI was seeing on instagram story
(15:48):
like people like in like crazyillegal apartment parties and
then topless in the shelter andthen back up to the parties like
up and down all night okay, soyou were saying that you but you
weren't participating in it.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 4 (15:59):
no, no, I was not.
It was all over my instagramstories, though.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Because if you were to have participated, there'd be
no judgment from me.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
No, I was trying to stay focused and do a lot of
work, as much research andreporting as I could.
I was like I want to captureevery little moment I can, and
then I've also just beenobsessively glued to my phone.
So I'm like listening to likelive Twitter commentary spaces
where they have likeIraniananian and israeli
activists speaking.
They're getting people insideof iran who are anti-regime
calling in.
I'm like following like openintel sources.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Um ignorant question.
When so you said you went outfor dinner last night.
If a siren were to have goneoff, what would you have done?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
um, there are shelters everywhere within like
a minute's walk because we wereon the beach walks.
There's like one beneath the usembassy where we were nearby.
There's one next to the kingdavid tower where we were.
We were and the staff just saidlook, if we get an alert, we'll
take all of you over to the,like the nearest shelter next
ignorant question are theretoilets in all the shelters?
I'm not sure about all of them,but some of them.
(17:04):
I mean, there was one nightwhere I met up with a friend who
was staying at the Hilton Hoteland I got to stay in his
shelter for the night, whichlooks like a restaurant, so it's
got booth seating and tablesand catering and soda fountains.
And then there are some thatare just very basic concrete
bunkers with nothing in them andgideon, with your journalist's
(17:29):
hat on.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
What are you making of how israelis are responding
to this?
Because it seems there isexpressions of just, you know,
complete and utter disbelief,through to pride and euphoria at
the audaciousness and successof this attack, through to, you
know, obviously, devastation forsome people, given that lives
(17:54):
have been lost and that there isvery significant damage in some
parts of the country, albeitquite isolated.
Give us a sense of the breadthof responses.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
I mean, the amazing thing you'll see in the shelters
is just everyone very muchcoming together and taking care
of each other and just sort oflike.
There's a very strong sense oflike everyone, like being very
communal and like looking outfor one another and making sure
everyone gets into the shelterin time and everyone sits there
and people comfort each other.
I was like making friends withpeople in the shelter in my
neighborhood last night.
(18:25):
So one was a girl from New Yorkwho's actually Persian and
Jewish, so she's got family inIran right now trying to escape.
Then we were just joking as weleft the shelter like might see
you in a couple hours.
Then we did.
What I'm reading from the mediahere is that it's very much a
non-partisan issue in terms ofstriking the Islamic Republic.
I think everyone's sort ofunited on the fact that it needs
(18:46):
to happen.
I think people are prettyshocked at the fact that you
know they've struck central TelAviv.
Like the first night when thevery first round of missiles
from Iran started and thenpeople started getting sort of
live Twitter feeds and seeingthat they'd hit Tel Aviv and we
were hearing the booms, I thinkthe mood very much changed.
It became very, very real.
(19:08):
And now I mean I can't speak foreveryone, but me personally
like looking at what this regimehas done with a few ballistic
missiles they have managed toland.
Can you imagine if they had anuke?
Can you imagine if that threathad been left to continue for
two more years and they gottheir hands on a nuclear weapon?
Like this is, with all the bombshelters and all the aerial
(19:30):
defense system israel has.
Like look at what they've donein a few days and where they're
targeting as well.
So at this, stage.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
You're greeting it with with some sense of fun and
you seem to be relativelyrelaxed about the whole thing.
How much longer do you thinkyou can maintain the good
spirits that you're in Gideon?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
I mean, there's not really a choice, is there?
I mean, I can't fly out of hereLike I'm going to be here until
this is over with.
So I'm not someone who getsoverly anxious about things that
are out of my control.
All I can do is keep my phoneby my hand, check the app and go
to the nearest shelter and waitthere until I'm instructed to
do it otherwise.
So I'm trying to put myfeelings aside about what's
happening.
(20:10):
I also can't really processwhat's happening because I'm in
it right now.
The only thing I can do is postlive updates online about
what's happening and keep upwith the news.
So I'm trying to just keep mybrain in work mode.
I'm sure in a week's time ortwo I'll crash and finally get
some sleep time or two I'llcrash and finally get some sleep
(20:31):
.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
As someone who uses humor to cope with difficult
circumstances, I'm curious toknow how you and your friends
are, or if you're using humorthere's.
I know that in previoussituations similar to this one,
I know that I had.
I was being sent memes frompeople in Israel cracking jokes
are you at that point yet, or isit too soon for you?
Speaker 4 (20:54):
oh yeah, the memes have been constant have they
been funny?
Speaker 1 (20:59):
yes can you describe some of them oh?
Speaker 4 (21:03):
I'm trying to think of one.
There was one I saw that likechaotic jewish on instagram
posted and it was like a pictureof a labrador and it was like
iranians standing with israeland then it was like a feral,
like wolf, and it was likewestern activists standing with
the regime.
Because that's the other thingI didn't mention is like you'll
never hear any sort ofanti-iranian sentiment here from
(21:24):
israelis, like everyone's verymuch under the understanding
that this is not a war withIranian people and that they
want Iranian people to be free.
And I'm seeing a lot of Israelifriends like posting about like
unity with Iranian people andthat it's a fight with the
regime.
I had someone I posted one ofthose sort of like Instagrams
like a statement from ElikaLabon about like unity between
our people, and I had a personfrom Melbourne just reply free
(21:51):
Palestine.
I also had someone else that Iused to be friends with like
sending me like abusive messagesin between running to shelters,
um, the other night saying thatI'm on the wrong side of
history for what I'm posting,which all I'd posted was footage
of me going to shelters andlike a message of solidarity
between Iranian and Jewish andIsraeli people, and that
apparently was very offensive tothem to that white person in
Melbourne yes, and then I um, Iknew they were going to block me
(22:11):
anyway, so I just kept sendingthem like sort of like
pro-Israeli, iranian content,and then finally, it was like a
statement from Ella Colobonsaying that, as a Middle Eastern
woman, no one oppresses himmore than a white leftist.
And then he crashed out andblocked me.
So I was like that was.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Probably felt a bit too seen at that point.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
And then the sirens went off one minute later.
I was like okay, well anyway,priorities.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Well, on that note, I think it's time to call this
conversation to a close.
Gideon, thank you for bringingyour on-the-ground insights and
your memes and sharing with us alittle bit of life in Tel Aviv
right now.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
One more question.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
Gideon, is there anythingyou're ashamed to admit?
Speaker 4 (22:56):
I mean it's not really good for, like, the name
of your podcast, but it's kindof the opposite, because I had a
lot of like blowback for evenjust giving like vague support
to Israel in the last two years.
I mean, like 80% of my friendsfrom like so like the queer
progressive scene in Melbourneno longer speak to me since
October 7th, so I knew that theywould.
There'd be blowback for me evenjust being here and then
(23:17):
actually just being in like anactive, like missile strikes,
like constantly knowing thatpeople are actually losing their
lives.
I've never cared less aboutwhat I'm posting online and
who's looking at it.
And what's fascinating as wellis I made a journalism page
before this started and it'sgained like a hundred followers
in like 24 hours since.
It's all kicked off.
And a lot of people who don'tfollow that page are looking at
(23:40):
every single story, sort of playby play, and these are people
who post very anti-Israelcontent on their Instagrams, so
they're obsessively watchingthis in real time, not checking
in to ask if I'm okay or am Ialive.
The only thing I can really doright now is just show the
reality of what's happening here, because I know I sound like
I'm doing fine, but it is ahorrific situation and people
(24:01):
are losing their lives, and thisis completely unprecedented in
Israel's history.
So the only thing I can do tobe useful is to just show it to
the world and show what thisfeels like.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Yeah, no, that's a great response.
Thank you for doing that.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Thank you so much for being with us tonight.
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
That was Gideon Cohen , and now you'll hear Dasha's
conversation with Kylie MooreGilbert, who's an accomplished
author, university academicspeaker and political
commentator.
Her writing includes thebest-selling 2022 memoir, the
Uncaged Sky.
Speaker 2 (24:51):
Kylie survived 804 days as a hostage to Iran's IRGC
, accused of being a Mossadagent, an MI6 agent and even a
spy for Australia.
Here's my conversation withKylie Moore Gilbert.
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Hey Dash, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Kylie, you know the IRGC firsthand.
How does their institutionalculture, their sense of
revolutionary mission, theirparanoia shape how they're
likely to be responding to whatis arguably the biggest
challenge to their power since1979.
?
Speaker 5 (25:28):
Yeah, look, there is no one IRGC.
I'd make that point to startwith.
The IRGC is a behemoth.
It's got factions in everypossible realm.
You can imagine everything frombusiness interests
pharmaceutical industry, oilindustry, import-export, all the
way through to the business offunneling missiles to proxies
(25:51):
and fighting wars in parts ofthe region and repressing its
own people.
It does everything.
It's kind of a parallel statein a way, within Iran.
So you have multiple factionswithin the IRGC and they don't
always see eye to eye, and youalso have power struggles
between senior elites as well.
(26:12):
So it's really really hard,especially right now when you
have such chaos in Iran and somany top guys have obviously
been eliminated, it's hard toknow what's going on there.
Really, I can imagine thatthey're enraged.
They've got egg on their face.
Sometimes, when you corner adangerous animal, it lashes out
(26:34):
much more than it wouldordinarily, and so I think we'll
probably see quite a bit ofthat coming from the IRGC.
Their ideology is such that atleast it's professed to be as
such that they are willing toessentially fight to the death.
You know, there's a real cultof martyrdom.
People are lauded andcelebrated who return in in body
(26:55):
bags from fighting holy wars in, in syria or lebanon or
wherever it may be, iraq and um.
There's very much sort of acelebration of the you know of
shuhada, of martyrdom withinIRGC ranks.
So be a sizable faction withinthat organization right now
which would be willing tocontinue fighting, no matter the
(27:17):
stakes, and never give in andnever compromise, which is
actually extremely scary giventhe precarious situation of
regular people in Iran right now.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
So I'm glad that you mentioned the factions.
Given that Israel strikesappear to have killed several
IRGC commanders and obviouslytheir nuclear scientists, and
that some of the seniorofficials are said to be looking
over their shoulders or hidingin bunkers, how would you
(27:46):
anticipate the power dynamicsmight be shifting right now
within their security apparatusand who might be filling the
vacuum left by the deaths ofthose leaders?
And does this perhaps create anopportunity for other factions,
maybe factions that might adopta different approach to the
(28:08):
previous leadership?
Speaker 5 (28:10):
So the primary issue here is that the guy at the top,
ayatollah Ali Khamenei, isstill in place.
He's still calling the shotsand he's essentially the
dictator of Iran.
It's to him personally, on anindividual level, that the IRGC
pledges allegiance, not to thepeople of Iran, not to the
Iranian constitution, but to thesupreme leader, whom the
(28:33):
Iranians call Rahbar, as theirguiding light, I guess.
And so because he is stillthere and he has considerable
religious legitimacy among theIRGC and other pro-regime groups
, he's still calling the shotsand making the decisions.
So, for example, should Iranultimately bend the knee and
(28:54):
agree to some kind ofhumiliating negotiation with the
United States to give up on itsnuclear program and accept all
kinds of bitter terms that theynever would have wanted to
accept ordinarily, this wouldhave to be Khamenei's decision,
despite or in spite of hugenumbers of IRGC and other
(29:15):
hardline factions in Iran thatwould prefer never to swallow
that bitter pill and wouldprefer to sort of fight to the
very end.
So he's still calling the shots.
But definitely you have to, andyou always have.
You've had multiple camps in theIranian regime, some that are
more dovish than others and somethat are more hardline and
hawkish.
You've got people like theforeign minister Arachchi, who,
(29:39):
despite linkages to the hardlinefactions and the IRGC, is sort
of seeming a bit more like asensible, more moderate for that
regime person and saying, yes,not, you know, trying sort of
seeming a bit more like asensible, more moderate for that
regime person and saying, yes,not, you know, trying sort of a
bit of historical revisionismand saying, oh, we never left
the negotiations with the UnitedStates and we want to sit down
with the United States and wewant to talk and we're, you know
(29:59):
, we're not after nuclearweapons, and sort of trying to
project that image.
And then you've obviously gothardline elements, including
within the parliament, themajlis, who have been saying,
even a few days ago, let's leavethe NPT, the nonproliferation
treaty, let's sprint for a bombright now, basically.
So you've got a whole gamut ofdifferent views in Iran and I
(30:21):
think, as always, it will bewhatever the supreme leader
decides, which is usually, youknow, usually dictated by regime
survival and you know his gripon power, yeah.
What he decides will determinethings.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Kylie.
Given that it all rests on theSupreme Leader of Iran, the
86-year-old Supreme Leader AliKhamenei old supreme leader Ali
Khamenei, can you give us someinsight into his character and
how you anticipate he might beresponding to Israel's attack
(30:57):
and to the escalation?
Speaker 5 (30:59):
Like most elderly people, in my view, khamenei is
quite set in his ways, quiteslow to change direction.
It's hard for him to graspradical new developments Because
of his inflexibility.
I think he's quite predictablein that sense and this could be
(31:22):
one reason why he has not beentargeted for assassination and
why he's been retained in place,because it's kind of a better
the devil you know situation.
If he should disappear andthere's no official successor to
him and no universally acceptedsuccessor, which obviously
looks like a foolish error onhis part, to get to age 86 and
(31:44):
not have any clear successor iskind of mad really.
But that was due to powerstruggles within the regime and,
I think, his attempts to sortof stay the top dog for as long
as possible and not create arival.
So, given that he's sopredictable in a sense and he's
a known entity, he has shownhimself to be a rational actor.
(32:05):
He's obviously extremelyhardline and ideological and
fully bought into the ideologyof the Islamic Republic.
But you know he's been in powerfor more than three decades.
He's relatively predictable inhis decision-making and he has
compromised in the past when theregime's survival is at stake.
So it's possible that you knowit was judged that keeping him
(32:26):
there is better than thealternative which is at stake.
So it's possible that it wasjudged that keeping him there is
better than the alternative,which is some unknown faction,
some unknown group, potentiallymilitarized group or individual
taking power with all theuncertainty that that could
yield.
So I think overall he's anelderly guy.
He's very unwell.
He's considered to have hadcancer for a number of years.
(32:46):
Now he's paralyzed down oneside.
He's got this kind of shriveledhand that doesn't move because
of a failed assassinationattempt in the 1980s that he's
been kind of living with eversince.
I feel like he's thisinflexible old guy, very hard
line but predictable, and maybeit's better.
(33:07):
The devil you know.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
His capacity for compromise that you mentioned
before.
I'm expecting that you wouldn'tpredict it would extend to
handing over the nuclearcapability and acquiescing to
Israel and the United States'demands.
Speaker 5 (33:25):
I actually think if I had to put money on it and it's
a really, really difficultthing to do right now, of course
I probably would expect him toactually eventually acquiesce.
And that's because thealternative is simply the level
of chaos that could ensue shouldthey just fight on and see
(33:46):
their regime crumble around them.
I mean, they've lost thenuclear program anyway, right,
particularly if the Americans dodecide to step in and drop a
massive bomb on the Fordownuclear mountain.
I mean, it's a massive mountainwith a bunker under it full of
nuclear material, which is themain sticking point and the main
difficulty that Israel isexperiencing in completely
(34:08):
dismembering the nuclear programaltogether.
So you know, if they keep goingand they don't compromise, they
face the loss of their nuclearprogram and potentially far more
than that significant face.
And they've already lost alltheir deterrent, you know all
(34:30):
their credibility with regionalplayers, internally, within
their own support base, withinthe eyes of the people who
broadly don't support them.
They've already lost thatlegitimacy anyway.
Should they sign off onsomething with the US, it would
be a humiliating and bitter blowfor them to have to take on.
But regime survival trumpseverything and I think Khamenei
(34:51):
has shown in the past that youknow, he is willing to make
these compromises if the veryfuture of humanity regime he's
dedicated his life to is underthreat.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Interested in the implications.
In the domestic context in Iran.
It's been said a lot in recenttimes that the regime has
decreasing levels of supportfrom the Iranian people.
In fact, netanyahu hasexplicitly appealed to the
Iranian people, saying that thisis your opportunity to stand up
(35:24):
and essentially seize thismoment to finally overthrow the
regime and the IRGC.
You've got an interesting takeon that that I want to get to in
a moment, but first off, juston that question, could we see
that moment?
Speaker 5 (35:41):
I think that's a really excellent observation,
dash, and I think you're right.
There's a strong danger here.
No matter what the regimedecides to do whether it
negotiates and brings an end tothis conflict or keeps fighting
for a bit longer there's areally really strong risk for
the regime that they will beweakened so greatly that the
(36:02):
people will once again rise upand try and overthrow them.
I'm not necessarily predictingthat outcome, though I think
it's too hasty, particularlybecause all of the bad guys
still have all of the guns, andthe Iranian people the ones that
took to the streets in 2022,2023, with the Women Life
Freedom Movement, for examplethey don't have any weapons,
(36:24):
they don't have any ability toremove this regime by force, nor
will any kind of externallyimposed regime change work.
You know, I think decades ofWestern involvement in the
Middle East has shown that ifthere's to be regime change, it
has to be internal.
It has to come from the Iranianpeople.
So the danger here is that Ithink the regime internally will
(36:48):
splinter.
I think that perhaps there's agreater likelihood of that.
You have so many factions, youhave so many competing interests
, particularly if somethinghappens to the Supreme Leader.
But even if he remains in place.
Keeping a stranglehold on somany competing interests is
going to be tough.
When everybody is so weakened,when the economy is so weakened
(37:09):
and they're licking their woundsideologically as well, as you
know, figuratively, it's goingto be really tough to hold that
together.
So you might see a kind of miniwell, you might see a lot of
infighting within the regimewhich could then weaken it
further, which could lead thepeople to, you know, attract
defections, for example, tobreak them up altogether,
(37:31):
because, as we've seen inhistory, most revolutions, you
don't get rid of all of the badguys.
You need to actually convincesome of the bad guys to come
over to your side, convince someof the bad guys to come over to
your side, and so I thinkthat's the only real pathway
forward is to splinter theregime and encourage some
elements of it to defect to theopposition, which did not happen
(37:52):
in all of the protest movementsthat have occurred in Iran in
the past.
But who knows now?
I think it's a real risk forthe regime and I'm sure it's at
the forefront of their minds,but the path forward's not clear
and it's probably going to bevery bloody and chaotic if that
does happen.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
You've penned an article just today for the Age
cautioning Israel's involvementin any regime change.
The headline reads Iranianssupport Israel assassinating
their oppressors, at least fornow.
What is it that you want to sayabout the way that Israel might
(38:32):
be manoeuvring to contribute tothe overthrow of the regime?
Speaker 5 (38:39):
Israel's stated aim is to dismantle the nuclear
program and, yes, netanyahu andothers have made comments about
regime change, but they haven'texplicitly said that their
objective is to overthrow theIranian regime, and I think it
would be very unwise of them topursue that.
I think they should focussolely on the nuclear program
(39:01):
and potentially the ballisticmissiles as well, getting rid of
those and then getting the hellout and leaving the Iranian
regime, or whatever remains ofit, to fight amongst itself and
figure out what next.
I mean you know.
So I think going after regimechange is, as I said,
ill-advised.
(39:22):
I can't predict what they'll door what their objectives are,
but I think, as I was sayingearlier, the Iranian people have
to decide that question.
And especially, you know, Ithink the point I made in my
article was that if Israel takesactions that alienate the
Iranian people, which are anatural constituency of support
(39:43):
for that same aim of removingthe regime and the nuclear
program, the Iranian peopledon't want either At least 80%
of the population want theIslamic Republic gone but
alienating the people by masscivilian casualties, some of the
statements that have come outof Israeli ministers, like
Israel Katz, saying they'regoing to burn Tehran and the
(40:04):
residents of Tehran will pay theprice for the Islamic
Republic's bombings of Israel.
This kind of stuff, even Trumpsaying that the entire city of
Tehran needs to be emptied andevacuated.
I mean, that's not possible.
These kinds of things arereally, really concerning
because that's, you know, notdistinguishing between the
(40:25):
regime and the people, and itdoes risk pushing some of those
people back into the arms of theregime and it undermines the
broader objective, which is toessentially create the
conditions, perhaps, throughwhich those people could
eventually overthrow the regimethemselves once the bombs stop
falling.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
What is the largest kind of block or the most likely
rival to the regime that wouldcome presumably, I'm guessing,
from secular Iran or the sort ofnon-IRGC aligned parts of Iran?
Tell us a little bit aboutessentially the opposition.
I guess it's very difficult tospeak a lot about them in Iran
(41:09):
and certainly we don't hear alot about them in Australia.
Speaker 5 (41:13):
Yeah, you're so right .
I mean, look, there is noofficial opposition, there are
no even political parties inIran.
They have not allowed any groupto flourish.
Even, for example, tradeunionists, rival Shia Islamic
(41:34):
religious movements which areslightly different from that of
the Islamic Republic, clampeddown upon and stamped out
immediately.
You know, anything that couldbe construed as a political
rival or ideological rival isdecimated in Iran, including
fellow travelers ideologicallyout immediately.
Anything that could beconstrued as a political rival
or ideological rival isdecimated in Iran, including
fellow travelers ideologically.
So it's very difficult for anyone group to emerge.
You've got all of these groupsin the diaspora, many of which
(41:56):
would aspire to and would loveto come back and sweep into Iran
and take control and be thesaviour of their country.
But I don't think they have anyreal legitimacy with Iranians
on the ground and could actuallycause more trouble.
And you know, I'm thinkingespecially of the Pahlavis, the
monarchists, the followers ofthe son of the last shah of Iran
(42:18):
who was kicked down in 1979.
These people have a very loudvoice and are very well
organised in the diaspora.
They do have support insideIran, maybe, let's say, 5% of
the population.
Max would probably say thatthey're ardent monarchists.
But you're never going to seebroad popular support for the
(42:39):
return of the son of the formerShah, and the idea that people
think that that is a prospect atall is just bonkers to me, to
be honest.
Speaker 2 (42:48):
Clearly you've got lots of contacts still in Iran
friends that you're in touchwith.
But have you got muchconnection with Iranians in
Australia, with the Iraniandiaspora here?
Speaker 5 (43:01):
I do.
I have quite a few lovelyIranian friends that I've met
here in Australia.
The Iranian-Australiancommunity is really wonderful.
They've been really supportiveof me on a personal level, but
also extremely loud andoutspoken about human rights in
Iran and the plight of theirfriends, family and compatriots
(43:25):
back there.
Particularly in 2022 when theWomen Life Freedom movement
emerged, they were really activelobbying parliament, doing
protests, doing events, tryingto draw attention to the cause
and speaking in the media aswell.
So I got to know a lot of themthrough that.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
Have you heard from any of them since this wars
began?
Speaker 5 (43:46):
Oh, I've had stacks of conversations with Iranian
Australians.
I mean, everybody's checking inwith everybody else.
You know, are your loved onessafe?
I've heard all kinds ofreactions, depending on people's
politics.
So some are kind of as peoplein the diaspora want to be right
, like they have less skin inthe game so they can be more
radical.
So some of them are like youknow, drop a bomb on Khamenei's
(44:07):
head right now and like goIsrael, let's just like destroy
this regime, go for full regimechange.
There's some really gung-hopeople out there.
And then there are plenty ofothers who have a lot of
extended family in Iran.
You know parents, brothers,sisters, who are absolutely
terrified and aren't sleeping,are calling their loved ones,
you know, constantly trying toorganise safe routes for them to
(44:31):
escape Tehran, places for themto stay.
You know from here in Australia, and are just terrified, think
the whole thing is horrific andwant it to be over as soon as
possible.
Are just terrified, think thewhole thing is horrific and want
it to be over as soon aspossible.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
The regime was already under really significant
international sanctions,economic pressure.
How much does its economicvulnerability constrain their
potential future militaryresponses, and can the country
even afford a prolonged conflictwith Israel at all?
Speaker 5 (45:06):
That's such a good question and, in short, no, it
cannot.
The Iranian economy has been onits knees for, I'd say, a
decade at least, basically sincethe very first sanctions were
imposed a couple of decades agowhen it first started this
nuclear business in themid-2000s, particularly since
(45:27):
the nuclear deal collapsed, theObama-negotiated nuclear deal
that was signed in 2015,.
Particularly since then, trumpobviously imposed really heavy
sanctions.
Biden was a little bit like,like, unserious about enforcing
them, particularly on oil, andthere are crazy charts and
(45:49):
graphs out there showing amassive spike in Iranian oil
exports, particularly on theblack market, after Biden came
into office.
But you know the strangleholdon their economy remains and you
know the rial, for example.
Their currencies are basicallyworthless.
It's sort of devalued, to theextent that I've been hearing
(46:09):
that Iranians aren't even usingcash anymore and they're going
to the bazaar and buying goldlike chunks of gold and keeping
all their savings in goldbecause the cash just has no
value.
So, yeah, their economy is onits knees.
The poverty levels in Iran Imean Iran is really a
middle-class country.
It's not a third-world countryat all.
(46:29):
It's very, very developed, higheducation levels, high literacy
levels, but now apparently morethan 50% of the country is
below the poverty line, you know, and it was probably half of
that a generation ago.
So it's some.
You know.
It's really, reallyheartbreaking what they've done
to the economy of the countryand this is why you saw, you
(46:51):
know, in a lot of the pastprotest movements, some of the
chants they would use on thestreets were, you know, not, not
Syria, lebanon.
I give my heart and soul toIran, which means you're giving
all of our money to Syria andLebanon and you're not spending
it on the taxpayers, on your ownpeople.
(47:11):
Largely that's oil money,because the Iranian economy is
almost solely funded through oiland gas wealth.
But there's a lot of resentmentthere that hundreds of billions
have been given to terroristgroups across the Middle East
and to the Assad regime andclients in Iraq and et cetera,
(47:32):
and the Iranian people areliterally starving and living
below the poverty line.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
Just to close out, given everything we know about
the Supreme Leader, about theregime and about the various
factions that play within theIRGC, give us a sense of what a
potential off-ramp for theregime might be out of this
conflict.
Speaker 5 (47:58):
I think saving face, as you mentioned, is really
important, and obviously it'srelative.
The amount of face that theregime States and European
powers as we saw in the JCPOAearlier, which in all likelihood
(48:26):
is going to curtail the nuclearambitions of Iran entirely zero
enrichment, zero building ofany facilities whatsoever, this
kind of thing, but, I guess,affords them the legitimacy of
remaining in place as the rulersof Iran, as the regime calling
the shots and, I guess, wouldafford some kind of security
(48:49):
guarantee to Iran in the shortterm that Israel won't continue
to attack them, that there willbe a cessation of hostilities,
potentially waivers of oilsanctions to enable them to
rebuild, waivers of oilsanctions to enable them to
rebuild this kind of thing couldgive them something of a
face-saving gesture.
I think, though, the regime'sreputation internally, within
(49:11):
its die-hard ideologicalsupporters, is ruined, no matter
what they do.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Kylie, thank you so much for coming on.
I feel really lucky to havespoken with someone Australian
that has such a deep insightinto Iranian politics and into
what's going on, and thank youagain, appreciate your time.
Speaker 5 (49:31):
Oh, thanks for having me on, dash.
It's lovely to meet you as well, and you had some excellent
questions.
So, yeah, I'm really happy tobe involved.
Speaker 2 (49:39):
That's it.
For another week You've beenlistening to A Shame to Admit
with me, Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
And me Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
This episode was mixed and edited by Nick King,
with theme music by DonovanJenks.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
As always.
Thanks for your support.
Stay safe and speak soon.
Thank you.
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