June 23, 2022 • 18 mins
On this week's podcast, Gregory explains in detail the history of the stock market volatility and how knowing your history impact your wallet.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Gregory Ricks (00:00):
Hey, welcome. I'm your host Gregory Rick's a
financial advisor here to answeryour questions and help you win
with your money.
Podcast Intro / Outro (00:09):
On today's episode of the Ask
Gregory podcast, Gregory isgoing to discuss the history of
the market, how it fluctuates,and what that means for your
money now, also, we've got acomplimentary download waiting
for you on this topic. If you goto gregoryricks.com/podcast87.
Again, that isgregoryricks.com/podcast87
Gregory Ricks (00:30):
Let's talk a little bit about market history
here. You know, some of thethings we you know, there's
risks, what are the known risks,that that's one of our concerns
known risk, every two year weget a 10% correction kind of as
an expectation, you should planfor every decade, every 10
(00:54):
years, somewhere in there,you're getting probably a 20% or
more downturn, that doesn't meanit's going to finish up for the
year or down for the year as aresult of those impacts. So it
doesn't mean you're going tohave a year that's going to be
20% off, but you can have thathappen during the year and at
(01:20):
the end, it may result in less,could we potentially have one of
those years? Yeah. The s&p isdown 17.6% for the year, you
know, I'm getting that numberfrom btn research. But you could
go to any of the indices,websites and look up those
(01:45):
numbers, Yahoo Finance, as well,then somewhere they're about,
we're probably having a largerdownturn. I'm gonna give you
some stats, stocks have lost athird of their value, at least
12 times in the past 170 years.
It just seems like it happens.
(02:11):
More often. Of Light, meaning wehave a big downturn during the
year. But did the market closeddown that much? No. So but
we're, we're talking about themarket closing down for the year
off that much. But here, here'sone of my concerns for you.
Let's go back to 2000. And we'rewe're talking about the s&p 500.
(02:35):
And I'm getting these numbersfrom from Vanguard s&p 500 index
returns VF I in x. And while welook at and let's just kind of
run through this, if we look atthe return for 2000, it was
(02:56):
minus 9.06% 2001. It was minus12.02%. In 2002, it was minus
22.15%. And then 2003 It was up28.5%. So you had three
(03:23):
consecutive negative yearsstarting with 2000. Let's let's
translate that to dollars. Ifyou had put a million dollars to
work. At the end of the firstthree years, your million
dollars would be down to$622,870. That fourth year I
(03:48):
mentioned in 2003 where themarket was up 28.5% Well, that
got you back to $800,388. Whatwould you have done in that
situation? Surely, I hope allyour money's not in that for
that reason. That's in 2004 itwas up 10.74%. So you got back
(04:09):
to $886,350. Then in oh five itwas up 4.7 2006 Up 15.6 2000 to
seven 5.39. So you now you'vegotten above water at the end of
2007. You're back above amillion dollars. You've got
(04:32):
$1.31 million. Then get whatyours next 2008. Yeah, there's
that a third of market value waserased.
The s&p This Vanguard s&p 500fund was down 37.02% That 1.13 1
(04:58):
million is now 702 $12,775 Ihope that wasn't all of your
money. Hope that was just partof their. But look, we and then
it got on a run that next year2009. It's at 26.49%, you're
back to 901,000. And next year14.91. Now you're back to
(05:21):
1,000,010 years, then youstarted this investment in 2000.
And year 2010. You're at1,036,000. Not a lot of gain.
Hmm. But if we look at that run,when was the next negative year
after 2008 2018? Most people sawthat was a good year. Yeah,
(05:46):
until the end of the year, iterased the gains for the year.
But in 2018, this account wasall 4.52%. But look where you're
at $2,414,000, you've more thandoubled the assets in an 18 year
(06:07):
span. But what but what I'mgetting at here is we had one
negative year in that 10 yearperiod. Was there some
corrections and adjustment alongthe way? Yeah, but you basically
had positive years for a longrun. So in 2019, this count was
(06:28):
up 31.33% 2020, up 18.25% and2021, up 28.53%. Here's part of
the psychology, I thinkinvestors are just used to it
always finishing up. And nowthey're worried that it's not in
(06:49):
it's probably not going tofinish up for this year. But
that's why we gotta let the yearplay out. But that million
dollars that you put in in 2000,with these up and downs in 2021,
finished up at $4,819,502. Inthis year, we're off 17.6% That
(07:18):
takes you to $3,971,269.65 Basedon the losses as of Friday, June
10 through the year and so nextI will take you through bond
fine. there and it's VB mfx ifyou had a put a million dollars
(07:45):
in that, you know when in 2000,you would have been up 11.39%
2001 Up 8.43%. In 2002, youwould have been up 8.26%. So
comparing that to the s&p indexfund at Vanguard that million
(08:06):
dollars in the bond fund wouldbe at 1.30 7 million opposed to
the s&p dropping down to622,000. See why you should have
a mix of asset classes there.
And and we can take that all theway forward. Like okay, here's
the question I'm not going totake you through every year here
(08:29):
on this but I will point outwhen set between 20 and 2021.
When were the negative years andbonds, well, there's three level
2013 was minus 2.26%. In 2018was minus point one 3% And 2021
was minus 1.77%. It averagedover that timespan 4.99% opposed
(08:59):
to the s&p 500 averaging 8.07%.
But in that first five years,from 2000 through 2000 and $4
million in that bond strategy inthat bond mutual fund a million
(09:20):
dollars went to $1.417 millionpost to the s&p 500
fund million dollars went downto $886,350. So by 2020 Warren
that bond fund value was$2,703,000 on average 4.99% The
(09:49):
s&p averaged 8.07%. So the bondfund didn't have to make up much
and losses did but yeah thestock market yet had to make a
lot. So when you look and say,well, at average 8.07%, you sure
can't use that number goingforward as an average return,
(10:11):
you've got to drop down a goodbit. And that's for another
conversation. You come into ouroffice, we kind of take you
through this so you understandhow you could be a little bit
misled regarding sequence ofreturns. So once again, two
(10:31):
asset classes, I went over withyou there. Next example I'm
gonna give you is in regard tofixed indexed annuities. I like
growth annuities, I I'm not afan of income riders, or bonus
annuities. And just to be outthere, you know what the
negative on a fixed indexedannuities are in theirs, they're
(10:56):
different from variable, they'realso different from fixed in
interest annuities, I don't carefor variable annuities, they're
just There's way too many feestoo expensive. I like a fixed
indexed annuity, because it'sclean. There's no asset fee. It
is a commission product, they dopay the firm a commission, but
(11:21):
they're not taken fees out ofthe account. Whereas managed
money, you know, like, you know,your brokerage accounts, IRAs,
that sort of brokerage firm anexample Fidelity Investments,
you're going to be feed annuallyon that account could be taken
quarterly or monthly. But thefixed indexed annuity, it does
(11:44):
not have a fee. Now, some ofthose, you could add riders and
such and create fees, I like itclean, I just want it for growth
purposes. And let's I'm gonnagive you an example or a
participation rate with a 50%par. And if we go from 20
(12:08):
through 2021, using a fixedindexed annuity, how many
negative years were there? Andusing a participation rate based
on the s&p 500? How manynegative years were there? Some
of you may have guessed theanswer, I'll tell you now, there
was no negative years. But therewas let's see, 345 years where
(12:37):
it was zero. So if the marketwent negative, the index that it
was correlated to went negative.
It's zero in place. So onceagain, there is no negative
year. So that strategy, thatasset class does not have to
make up losses. And if you wereusing a 50% participation rate
(12:58):
is an example. And those ratesadjust each year, some years
could be less, some could be alittle bit more, but just
hypothetically speaking,simplicity here use a 50% par
right, which means you're onlygetting half of the upside of
the market. So if the marketmade, you know, if the s&p was
up 10%, then you're getting 5%as an example. But if we use
(13:24):
that same par rate 50% over thattimespan we just looked at with
bonds, and the s&p 500 a milliondollars went to 3.8 to $0.
million or average 6.05%.
(13:47):
And is the par rate fixed indexannuity negative this year? No.
Because the you know, the s&p isnegative bonds are negative. But
the fix index, well, it's zerobecause there's no gain, and it
doesn't suffer losses. So let'sgo back and something I left out
(14:08):
on the bonds, the bonds, thatbond fund is off 10% this year.
I said well, that's not good.
That's like the most since 2000.
Yeah, it is. But it's off lessthan the s&p 500. So where that
s&p 500 fund Vanguard I showedyou, that it's at $3.971
(14:35):
million, the bond fawn would beoff about $270,000. So that puts
you at $2,470,000, estimated invalue, and the fixed indexed
(14:56):
annuity was at 3.8 to $0 millionThe end of 2021, it would
currently still be at that valuethis year, because once again,
markets off, but if it's off,all you get is a zero. So what
the point is, everything's notgoing down or as much and we
(15:18):
really kind of have an anomalyfrom a bond standpoint. But a
portfolio can be adjusted in theutilizing bond ETFs, for
example, to be less interestrate sensitive, but you you've
got in from an investingstandpoint, you have to
understand there's some negativeimpact. And if we're blending
(15:43):
assets, I would rather blend allthree of these plus another one
I'm not getting into today, butthat's using quantitative
tactical where money rotates infavor, and actually when kind of
things are volatile, can shiftto cash until it finds momentum
again, and this is from a growthstandpoint. Thanks so much for
(16:07):
listening to ask Gregory wherewe answer your financial
questions. You can find usanywhere Podcasts can be found
and on YouTube and Facebook Liveevery Saturday from 10 to one
subscribe, leave a review andtune in next time.
Podcast Intro / Outro (16:23):
Don't forget we have a complimentary
download waiting for you on thistopic. If you go to
gregoryricks.com/podcast87 Againthat is
gregoryricks.com/podcast87Gregory Ricks & Associates is an
independent financial servicesfirm that utilizes a variety of
investment and insuranceproducts. Investment advisory
services offered only by dulyregistered individuals through
(16:45):
AE Wealth Management, LLC(AEWM). AEWM and Gregory Ricks &
Associates are not affiliatedcompanies. Gregory Ricks &
Associates, The Total WealthAuthority is our trademarked
tagline, it does not promise orguarantee investment results or
preservation of principal nordoes it represent a certain
level of skill. Investinginvolves risk, including the
potential loss of principal. Anyreferences to protection, safety
or lifetime income, generallyrefer to fixed insurance
(17:06):
products, never securities orinvestments. Insurance
guarantees are backed by thefinancial strength and claims
paying abilities of the issuingcarrier. This radio show is
intended for informationalpurposes only. It is not
intended to be used as the solebasis for financial decisions,
nor should it be construed asadvice designed to meet the
particular needs of anindividual’s situation. Gregory
Ricks & Associates is notpermitted to offer and no
statement made during this showshall constitute tax or legal
(17:27):
advice. Our firm is notaffiliated with or endorsed by
the U.S. Government or anygovernmental agency. The
information and opinionscontained herein provided by
third parties have been obtainedfrom sources believed to be
reliable, but accuracy andcompleteness cannot be
guaranteed by Gregory Ricks &Associates. Any media logos
and/or trademarks containedherein are the property of their
respective owners and noendorsement by those owners of
Gregory Ricks & Associates isstated or implied Gregory Ricks
(17:49):
& Associates has a strategicpartnership with tax
professionals and attorneys whocan provide tax and/or legal
advice. AEWM, Gregory Ricks &Associates, WJ Blanchard Law,
LLC, J Heath & Co. and MortgageGumbo are not affiliated
companies. This show is a paidplacement.ed
Hey, welcome. I'm your host Gregory Rick's a
financial advisor here to answeryour questions and help you win
with your money.
Podcast Intro / Outro (00:09):
On today's episode of the Ask
Gregory podcast, Gregory isgoing to discuss the history of
the market, how it fluctuates,and what that means for your
money now, also, we've got acomplimentary download waiting
for you on this topic. If you goto gregoryricks.com/podcast87.
Again, that isgregoryricks.com/podcast87
Gregory Ricks (00:30):
Let's talk a little bit about market history
here. You know, some of thethings we you know, there's
risks, what are the known risks,that that's one of our concerns
known risk, every two year weget a 10% correction kind of as
an expectation, you should planfor every decade, every 10
(00:54):
years, somewhere in there,you're getting probably a 20% or
more downturn, that doesn't meanit's going to finish up for the
year or down for the year as aresult of those impacts. So it
doesn't mean you're going tohave a year that's going to be
20% off, but you can have thathappen during the year and at
(01:20):
the end, it may result in less,could we potentially have one of
those years? Yeah. The s&p isdown 17.6% for the year, you
know, I'm getting that numberfrom btn research. But you could
go to any of the indices,websites and look up those
(01:45):
numbers, Yahoo Finance, as well,then somewhere they're about,
we're probably having a largerdownturn. I'm gonna give you
some stats, stocks have lost athird of their value, at least
12 times in the past 170 years.
It just seems like it happens.
(02:11):
More often. Of Light, meaning wehave a big downturn during the
year. But did the market closeddown that much? No. So but
we're, we're talking about themarket closing down for the year
off that much. But here, here'sone of my concerns for you.
Let's go back to 2000. And we'rewe're talking about the s&p 500.
(02:35):
And I'm getting these numbersfrom from Vanguard s&p 500 index
returns VF I in x. And while welook at and let's just kind of
run through this, if we look atthe return for 2000, it was
(02:56):
minus 9.06% 2001. It was minus12.02%. In 2002, it was minus
22.15%. And then 2003 It was up28.5%. So you had three
(03:23):
consecutive negative yearsstarting with 2000. Let's let's
translate that to dollars. Ifyou had put a million dollars to
work. At the end of the firstthree years, your million
dollars would be down to$622,870. That fourth year I
(03:48):
mentioned in 2003 where themarket was up 28.5% Well, that
got you back to $800,388. Whatwould you have done in that
situation? Surely, I hope allyour money's not in that for
that reason. That's in 2004 itwas up 10.74%. So you got back
(04:09):
to $886,350. Then in oh five itwas up 4.7 2006 Up 15.6 2000 to
seven 5.39. So you now you'vegotten above water at the end of
2007. You're back above amillion dollars. You've got
(04:32):
$1.31 million. Then get whatyours next 2008. Yeah, there's
that a third of market value waserased.
The s&p This Vanguard s&p 500fund was down 37.02% That 1.13 1
(04:58):
million is now 702 $12,775 Ihope that wasn't all of your
money. Hope that was just partof their. But look, we and then
it got on a run that next year2009. It's at 26.49%, you're
back to 901,000. And next year14.91. Now you're back to
(05:21):
1,000,010 years, then youstarted this investment in 2000.
And year 2010. You're at1,036,000. Not a lot of gain.
Hmm. But if we look at that run,when was the next negative year
after 2008 2018? Most people sawthat was a good year. Yeah,
(05:46):
until the end of the year, iterased the gains for the year.
But in 2018, this account wasall 4.52%. But look where you're
at $2,414,000, you've more thandoubled the assets in an 18 year
(06:07):
span. But what but what I'mgetting at here is we had one
negative year in that 10 yearperiod. Was there some
corrections and adjustment alongthe way? Yeah, but you basically
had positive years for a longrun. So in 2019, this count was
(06:28):
up 31.33% 2020, up 18.25% and2021, up 28.53%. Here's part of
the psychology, I thinkinvestors are just used to it
always finishing up. And nowthey're worried that it's not in
(06:49):
it's probably not going tofinish up for this year. But
that's why we gotta let the yearplay out. But that million
dollars that you put in in 2000,with these up and downs in 2021,
finished up at $4,819,502. Inthis year, we're off 17.6% That
(07:18):
takes you to $3,971,269.65 Basedon the losses as of Friday, June
10 through the year and so nextI will take you through bond
fine. there and it's VB mfx ifyou had a put a million dollars
(07:45):
in that, you know when in 2000,you would have been up 11.39%
2001 Up 8.43%. In 2002, youwould have been up 8.26%. So
comparing that to the s&p indexfund at Vanguard that million
(08:06):
dollars in the bond fund wouldbe at 1.30 7 million opposed to
the s&p dropping down to622,000. See why you should have
a mix of asset classes there.
And and we can take that all theway forward. Like okay, here's
the question I'm not going totake you through every year here
(08:29):
on this but I will point outwhen set between 20 and 2021.
When were the negative years andbonds, well, there's three level
2013 was minus 2.26%. In 2018was minus point one 3% And 2021
was minus 1.77%. It averagedover that timespan 4.99% opposed
(08:59):
to the s&p 500 averaging 8.07%.
But in that first five years,from 2000 through 2000 and $4
million in that bond strategy inthat bond mutual fund a million
(09:20):
dollars went to $1.417 millionpost to the s&p 500
fund million dollars went downto $886,350. So by 2020 Warren
that bond fund value was$2,703,000 on average 4.99% The
(09:49):
s&p averaged 8.07%. So the bondfund didn't have to make up much
and losses did but yeah thestock market yet had to make a
lot. So when you look and say,well, at average 8.07%, you sure
can't use that number goingforward as an average return,
(10:11):
you've got to drop down a goodbit. And that's for another
conversation. You come into ouroffice, we kind of take you
through this so you understandhow you could be a little bit
misled regarding sequence ofreturns. So once again, two
(10:31):
asset classes, I went over withyou there. Next example I'm
gonna give you is in regard tofixed indexed annuities. I like
growth annuities, I I'm not afan of income riders, or bonus
annuities. And just to be outthere, you know what the
negative on a fixed indexedannuities are in theirs, they're
(10:56):
different from variable, they'realso different from fixed in
interest annuities, I don't carefor variable annuities, they're
just There's way too many feestoo expensive. I like a fixed
indexed annuity, because it'sclean. There's no asset fee. It
is a commission product, they dopay the firm a commission, but
(11:21):
they're not taken fees out ofthe account. Whereas managed
money, you know, like, you know,your brokerage accounts, IRAs,
that sort of brokerage firm anexample Fidelity Investments,
you're going to be feed annuallyon that account could be taken
quarterly or monthly. But thefixed indexed annuity, it does
(11:44):
not have a fee. Now, some ofthose, you could add riders and
such and create fees, I like itclean, I just want it for growth
purposes. And let's I'm gonnagive you an example or a
participation rate with a 50%par. And if we go from 20
(12:08):
through 2021, using a fixedindexed annuity, how many
negative years were there? Andusing a participation rate based
on the s&p 500? How manynegative years were there? Some
of you may have guessed theanswer, I'll tell you now, there
was no negative years. But therewas let's see, 345 years where
(12:37):
it was zero. So if the marketwent negative, the index that it
was correlated to went negative.
It's zero in place. So onceagain, there is no negative
year. So that strategy, thatasset class does not have to
make up losses. And if you wereusing a 50% participation rate
(12:58):
is an example. And those ratesadjust each year, some years
could be less, some could be alittle bit more, but just
hypothetically speaking,simplicity here use a 50% par
right, which means you're onlygetting half of the upside of
the market. So if the marketmade, you know, if the s&p was
up 10%, then you're getting 5%as an example. But if we use
(13:24):
that same par rate 50% over thattimespan we just looked at with
bonds, and the s&p 500 a milliondollars went to 3.8 to $0.
million or average 6.05%.
(13:47):
And is the par rate fixed indexannuity negative this year? No.
Because the you know, the s&p isnegative bonds are negative. But
the fix index, well, it's zerobecause there's no gain, and it
doesn't suffer losses. So let'sgo back and something I left out
(14:08):
on the bonds, the bonds, thatbond fund is off 10% this year.
I said well, that's not good.
That's like the most since 2000.
Yeah, it is. But it's off lessthan the s&p 500. So where that
s&p 500 fund Vanguard I showedyou, that it's at $3.971
(14:35):
million, the bond fawn would beoff about $270,000. So that puts
you at $2,470,000, estimated invalue, and the fixed indexed
(14:56):
annuity was at 3.8 to $0 millionThe end of 2021, it would
currently still be at that valuethis year, because once again,
markets off, but if it's off,all you get is a zero. So what
the point is, everything's notgoing down or as much and we
(15:18):
really kind of have an anomalyfrom a bond standpoint. But a
portfolio can be adjusted in theutilizing bond ETFs, for
example, to be less interestrate sensitive, but you you've
got in from an investingstandpoint, you have to
understand there's some negativeimpact. And if we're blending
(15:43):
assets, I would rather blend allthree of these plus another one
I'm not getting into today, butthat's using quantitative
tactical where money rotates infavor, and actually when kind of
things are volatile, can shiftto cash until it finds momentum
again, and this is from a growthstandpoint. Thanks so much for
(16:07):
listening to ask Gregory wherewe answer your financial
questions. You can find usanywhere Podcasts can be found
and on YouTube and Facebook Liveevery Saturday from 10 to one
subscribe, leave a review andtune in next time.
Podcast Intro / Outro (16:23):
Don't forget we have a complimentary
download waiting for you on thistopic. If you go to
gregoryricks.com/podcast87 Againthat is
gregoryricks.com/podcast87Gregory Ricks & Associates is an
independent financial servicesfirm that utilizes a variety of
investment and insuranceproducts. Investment advisory
services offered only by dulyregistered individuals through
(16:45):
AE Wealth Management, LLC(AEWM). AEWM and Gregory Ricks &
Associates are not affiliatedcompanies. Gregory Ricks &
Associates, The Total WealthAuthority is our trademarked
tagline, it does not promise orguarantee investment results or
preservation of principal nordoes it represent a certain
level of skill. Investinginvolves risk, including the
potential loss of principal. Anyreferences to protection, safety
or lifetime income, generallyrefer to fixed insurance
(17:06):
products, never securities orinvestments. Insurance
guarantees are backed by thefinancial strength and claims
paying abilities of the issuingcarrier. This radio show is
intended for informationalpurposes only. It is not
intended to be used as the solebasis for financial decisions,
nor should it be construed asadvice designed to meet the
particular needs of anindividual’s situation. Gregory
Ricks & Associates is notpermitted to offer and no
statement made during this showshall constitute tax or legal
(17:27):
advice. Our firm is notaffiliated with or endorsed by
the U.S. Government or anygovernmental agency. The
information and opinionscontained herein provided by
third parties have been obtainedfrom sources believed to be
reliable, but accuracy andcompleteness cannot be
guaranteed by Gregory Ricks &Associates. Any media logos
and/or trademarks containedherein are the property of their
respective owners and noendorsement by those owners of
Gregory Ricks & Associates isstated or implied Gregory Ricks
(17:49):
& Associates has a strategicpartnership with tax
professionals and attorneys whocan provide tax and/or legal
advice. AEWM, Gregory Ricks &Associates, WJ Blanchard Law,
LLC, J Heath & Co. and MortgageGumbo are not affiliated
companies. This show is a paidplacement.ed
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!