June 26, 2025 • 28 mins
Text the ATB Team! We'd love to hear from you!
In this urgent special episode of At the Boundary, GNSI Research Fellow Dr. Arman Mahmoudian offers in-depth, real-time analysis of the rapidly escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now drawn in the United States. Following a U.S. and Israeli joint strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has shifted dramatically. Mahmoudian breaks down the consequences of the precision bombing campaign, which reportedly dealt serious blows to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, air defenses, and military leadership. He also explores Tehran’s limited response, the strategic calculus behind it, and what this means for the future of U.S. policy in the region.
The conversation covers the potential collapse—or evolution—of Iran’s long-standing Axis of Resistance, the possibility of asymmetric retaliation, and the regime’s internal struggle to maintain control amid leadership losses. This episode delivers timely insights into one of the most consequential flashpoints in international affairs.
Be sure to also check out the GNSI Research Initiative, Axis of Resistance, led by Dr. Mahmoudian. It's a comprehensive analysis of the small group of countries and non-state actors brought together by Iran in a loose coalition to destabilize the region.
# # # #
At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.
A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.
The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.
Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jim Cardoso (00:00):
Jim, hello everyone. Welcome to a
(00:11):
special episode of at theboundary, the podcast from the
global and national securityInstitute at the University of
South Florida. I'm Jim Cardoso,Senior Director of GNSI, and
your host for at the boundary,because of the events unfolding
across Iran, Israel and the restof the Middle East over the past
12 days, we thought it would bea great idea to bring in GNSI
(00:34):
Research Fellow, Dr Armonmahmoudian for a special episode
to gather his insights on theconflict that is now directly
drawn in the United States.
Armon has been on various mediasources constantly over the past
two weeks, and I highlyrecommend his analysis on
LinkedIn and X even before that,he has been leading a research
(00:56):
project here at GNSI called theAxis of Resistance. It's a
comprehensive analysis of thegroup of countries and non state
groups brought together by Iranin a loose coalition designed to
destabilize the region. End ofnote, Arman is joining us from
vacation, so we need to youknow, recognize the dedication.
Thank you for that, Arman, andwelcome back to the podcast. My
(01:20):
pleasure. Thank you for invitingme. I appreciate the kind
introduction. As always, greatto be here. Thank you. So we are
recording this on the afternoonof June 24 and I make that
disclaimer because we've watchedepisodes or, you know, events
change on a daily basis, so whenthis comes out, there could be
some adjustments from then, butwe're just going to talk about
(01:42):
what we know up till June 24 atabout 330 in the afternoon,
Eastern Time. So Armand whatgive us a quick summary, from
your perspective, where we'vebeen over the past 12 days and
where we're at now? Well, Ithink 12 days ago, on June 13,
Israelis believe that
Arman Mahmoudian (02:03):
two facts, the momentum that they had in terms
of Iran's weakness, Iran hasbeen weakened since October. So
when proxy system completelybeen, not completely been
dismantled, but there has beenthis de organized. There is no
adopting it, naturalized it.
Hezbollah is weaker. Hamas is atthe verge of losing its
territory. As a result of thepictures, Saudis received the
serious suffer the seriousSaudis hooties Suffer the
(02:26):
serious blow from the south,from the Americans and Israelis.
So 111, on one hand is Iran wasweakened in Israeli assessment
and many others. It was theweakest point they had since the
Iran Iraq War, and the chancesof you finding them in a similar
position again in two years,five years, 10 years, it would
be risky. You know, you neverknow what happens, but you never
(02:48):
can be assured after two and thesecond thing was that the
Iranian breakthrough to have abuild, to build a bomb, was
closer, as always, however, youknow, I don't want to get to the
intelligence assessment debatethat How close were they. But
what we knew is that the Iran'snuclear project had all
component, from the heavyRichter reactor to enrich
(03:09):
uranium to undergroundfacilities, to the labs,
everything, and the science, theknow how to have the bomb, to
build the bomb. Iran's stockpileafter enriched uranium, was
heavily high. It was somethingabout around the 400 kilogram so
we were at the situation that ifIran made the political decision
to build a bomb, it wouldn't bejust a bomb, it would be almost
(03:30):
a nuclear arsenal. Estimates wasthat Iran could, could have been
about 10 bomb with the stockpilethey had. So there was a
chessboard game was set for theIsraelis to act on it, and they
act on it. They act on it withthe precise military operation,
but more importantly, with thevery sophisticated intelligence
operation. They dismantled agood chunk of Iran's at least
(03:54):
sophisticated aerial defense.
They de organized or decapitatedIran's military
leadership, not necessarilythrough aerial attack outside of
Iran, but through the souls theyhad inside the Tehran and the
rest of the country. And fromthere we got to the exchange of
(04:16):
fire between the two countriesin which Israelis focus on
Iran's military infrastructures,Iran's military leadership and
nuclear project and some othercomponents of them, Iranian were
much more interested ininflicting pressure on the
Israelis population andsocialist society. That's why,
that's that is why a good chunkof Iranian attacks were
(04:37):
discriminatory, basically,attacking both the civilians and
military targets. The idea,probably behind of it was that
by completely disrupting thedaily life of citizen, and
Israel, being a democracy, theycan make a pressure on the
Netanyahu. And you know, youknow, pushing or pressing
Israelis back to back down bothsides reach. In a cease fire
(05:01):
yesterday on June 23 whichalmost was broke hours later in
earlier today. June 24 what weknow now, what that? What the
damages and the losses of theboat side Iran's nuclear project
has been seriously damaged, butit is very hard to say, is it
(05:23):
completely destroyed or not.
There are some news today wehave read another news is that
the, I believe it was theWallace Street Journal, you
know, quoting from an assistant,or at White House or White House
assistant, that it seems one ofthe component of the border is
unharmed. It's very hard toverify it's about 60 meters
under the ground or mountain. Soit's until the there are
inspectation inspections causewhat we can say, but what we
(05:49):
know, Nathan's is almost gone.
The heavy reactor in Iraq isgone. Laboratories and
facilities in a small one iscomplete. It seems to be
completely destroyed. Thereactor they had in Tehran is
out of the picture too. Anentire tier of Iran military
leadership is gone, the Chief ofStaff of the Chief of Staff the
(06:12):
command two, commander of theIRGC is back to back, commander
of the IRGC ground forces, two,commander of the IRGC
intelligence organization, evensome former intelligence you
know, officers, including thetop who was a former
intelligence of who was theformer commander of IRGC
intelligence Iran's ballisticmissiles has been and its site
(06:35):
production, its manufacture, itsfuel production, being heavily
damaged. It seems Iran has lostat least about half of its
launchers. So now Iran in theposition that its manufacture of
the missiles has been degraded,but also the cap capability to
deliver the missiles, being asan underground the size or the
(06:55):
launchers have been alsoundermined. So the damages on
Iranian side is significant. Onthe Israeli side, the damage is
going to be mostly economic,rather than the military. The
war itself cost Israel somethingabout $290 million per day only
for the air defense. So each dayof their air defense operation
cost almost a $300 million thereis a The report says that about
(07:19):
eight to 10,000 Israelis haslost their home during the
Iranian attacks. Or, you know,the either totally been
destroyed, like the attacks thathappened on June 23 later hours,
or, you know, badly needs a thatrepair. Then the Israelis also
now are facing a dilemma aboutthe for low and more
importantly, I think thequestion now is that where is
(07:40):
Iran's stockpile of the enricheduranium? This 400 kilogram can
be a game changer, because thereis always a fear that Iran might
Iran has the know how of theenriching uranium and building
centrifuges. I think that's thereality that we need accept, and
I think everybody accepts. Sothe fear is that Iran might
build smaller cell of theenriched uranium here and there,
(08:04):
and then use that stock wallthat already has to build a
bomb, or dirty bomb. So that'sthe question that Israel is
intelligence committee, and I'msure the United States
Intelligence Committee has sofar. That's the assessment of
the
Jim Cardoso (08:17):
and that was, and that's, I mean, that took, that
takes a lot of stuff that'shappened over the past 12 days,
and capsule boils it down. Andthere's a lot, I mean, there's a
lot of nuance. Understand thatthat you didn't cover as well,
but that was a that was a greatsummary. Thank you so much. I
mean, a big part of it too,obviously, from the US
perspective, is us is entry intothe conflict.
And President Trump, I mean,stated that the goal, the
(08:42):
objective, was, Iran cannot havea nuclear weapon. You've sort of
touched on this, but I'm gonna,I'm gonna ask you to kind of dig
into that a bit more. Do youthink, did they succeed? Did the
us succeed in keeping them fromhaving a nuclear weapon?
Arman Mahmoudian (08:58):
I think United States and the operation against
the
Jim Cardoso (10:56):
succeeded in that goal. I've read, you know, not
just the ability to build thebomb, to build a bomb, but the
will to build a bomb. And I'veread two schools of thought,
again, assuming the cease firein place now holds, I've kind of
read two schools of thoughtstarting to emerge. One is that
Iran willnot pursue building the bomb so
(11:19):
much because they've, you know,there's a sense that they'll
just get swapped again by theIsraelis, maybe assisted by the
United States. That's school ofthought, number one school of
thought. Two is, since they havealmost nothing left. I mean,
they're, like you said, a goodpart of their missile capability
is gone. A great amount of theirsenior leadership is gone, and
(11:40):
so they're gonna have to fillthose vacuums as well. The
second school's thought as well.
That's all we got it to defendourselves as a nuclear weapon.
And they've seen some successfrom other nations about having
especially when you look atRussia and Ukraine, a lot of the
time, some of the you know, anysense of lack of activity
against Russia is because theyhad the ability to strike back
(12:01):
with nuclear capability. What'syour thought on those two
schools of thought, and whichone do you support more?
Arman Mahmoudian (12:08):
This is a really good question, and I
think that's one of the mostimportant questions right
now. Look, Iran, it's verydelicate position. Was Iran been
attacked by two countries withinthe last two weeks that they
both have nuclear weapons. Atleast one of them has and the
other, allegedly the Israelis.
So it makes an impact on yourdecision making, I think, which
(12:33):
way Iran goes to build a bomb orto completely, you know,
distance itself from the bomb,because there's always option of
being a Japan. You know, afterWorld War Two, the cost of World
War Two was so heavy for theJapan is that for a long time,
they didn't wanted to doanything with the armed forces.
They even called the militarythe defense forces. I mean, they
were really, really persistentto kind of then there was a
(12:54):
desire among the German part,the Japanese public, to lesser
extent, the German, but theGerman were facing the
territorial split after the ColdWar, the impact for them was a
bit different. So there is achance that Iranian might do
that, but there is also a chancethat the Iranians, as you said,
want to get the build thestronger deterrence. I think
there is another factor thatplays a role in it, and the
(13:17):
factor that plays a role in itis that to what extent Israelis
wants to leverage Iran'smilitary weakness. So let's say
that Israel wants to apply thezero tolerance policy toward
Iran, which is a policy theyhave in Lebanon, and basically
means that whenever or whereverthat Israel feels something is
(13:39):
happening that might treat anIsraeli security they targeted,
and they're actively doing it inLebanon. They are doing it in
Gaza too, for the veryreasonable reasons. Let's say
that they want to do this inIran. There is air defense being
built. There is a ballisticmissile site over here. They
want to target. That would putIranian in the position to find
out, well, with this, we cannotbe a sovereign estate. We can't
(14:02):
do anything. So we need to havea jackpot call in order to, you
know, to tell them that, look,there is one thing else that I
have in mind, or I have in mypocket, if the application of
the zero policy to against theIran Israel's goal, I think the
likelihood of the IslamicRepublic seeks somewhat of a
(14:22):
nuclear bomb is more likely, ifnot, I that's a different
question. It's very hard stillto answer, yeah, but I think
less likely Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (14:34):
it is hard to answer. And I mean, you know, in
the past, we could say, well,you know, Israel's actions will
normally have a level ofsupport, or least alignment with
US national interest. But thelast 12 days has shown that
sometimes Israelis are justgoing to do what the Israelis
think they got to do. They'regoing to do what's in their best
(14:54):
national interest. And really,in this case, it seems like the
US sort of got pulled. Pulledinto it, towards something that
multiple administrations have, Imean, for you know, third three
decades, administration saidIran cannot have a nuclear
weapon. And it's sort of likethe US sort of got hold into
action here to actually dosomething about that. So now
(15:17):
that that's been done, you know,Iran, they launched some
missiles at us, forces in Qatarthat really didn't seem to have
much impact that, I mean to you,does that seem almost like a
half hearted effort by Iran justto kind of say, well, we did
something, but not reallysomething that would escalate
things?
Arman Mahmoudian (15:35):
Well, absolutely, absolutely look,
first of President Trump himselfconfirmed that Iranian let the
Americans know there was anadvance notice in his social
media troops so shocked him, hetanked Iranian for the early
notice. And I was tracking theevents in the Persian Gulf.
Qatar shot down its airspaceabout two hours before the
(15:55):
Iranian missile attack. NotIraqis, not us Qatar, later on,
join on. So I think there was areally preparation because, and
it wasn't like AyatollahKhomeini was concerned about the
life of the American soldiers.
It was purely a pragmaticdecision for Iran, opening a
second front of war would be theexact result that had for the
(16:18):
Germany. Or even worse, duringthe World War Two, in the 1941
they already had significantproblem with the British. Then
they decided, okay, you knowwhat? We are really busy with
the English now. We are alsogoing to invade the
Jim Cardoso (16:31):
right let's go attack Russia. What a great idea
that was. Yeah, exactly. And you
Arman Mahmoudian (16:35):
know how it turned for them? It changed. It
changed entirely their faith.
And I think Islamic Republic wasvery much happened if they have
done something to seriouslydamage the Americans that might
have been the end of the IslamicRepublic as an entity that we
know, at least in a shape thatwe at least see it. Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (16:53):
do you think that, though there may be some other
counteractions lurking outthere, maybe something
asymmetric? You know, there'sbeen a lot of discussion about
some type of cyber attack on usinfrastructure, or something
like that. You see that stilllurking out there as a
possibility?
Arman Mahmoudian (17:11):
Yes, there is a speculation about many things,
the cyber attacks, the so calledsleeper cells. I would say there
might be some demonstration ofthe capability, but not
necessarily an aggressiveattack. And what do I mean is
(17:32):
that,
Jim Cardoso (17:33):
is that, almost, for like, internal purposes more
than external, like maybe toYeah, to show the Iranian
people, yes, we're doingsomething. We are, we're
counter, we're counterattacking, but not really to
inflame the situation. Extra,
Arman Mahmoudian (17:46):
exactly, yeah, exactly, to kind of, you know,
send a signal to the people, andalso maybe send a signal to the
foreigners that, yes, they havea stuff to buy. You know, how to
walk you with it. So, but Ireally doubt that at this point,
it's it just not. It's notrational, and it's not in their
interest to do something likethe damage to the strategic
(18:07):
interest or the life of theAmericans or other countries
that to do it right now, theyare in a very, very weak
position. They have a lot torecover. There's a great chance
that they won't recover from agood chunk of the damage been
done to them. It just doesn'tseem rational. But the states
can be rational too. So I wantto just, you know, put this,
this whole idea that the statesalways operate rational is a
(18:30):
myth. We have seen countriesbeing irrational on and off, so
I don't know, but it's notrational. I can't tell that.
Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (18:39):
Iran's, I mean, their number one goal, in a lot
of ways, is to preservation ofthe of the administration,
preservation of the IslamicState of Iran, and not that to
from everything I've alwaysheard and read that that is
that, by far, it goes beyond anyof their other national
(18:59):
interests, which being, youknow, the elimination of Israel,
being the elimination of theinjection of the United States
from the area the, you know,keeping propping up their, their
their, their various arms of theof the Axis of Resistance. You
see that, you see them beingable to maintain that though,
through this, right?
Arman Mahmoudian (19:21):
Yes, and that is true. Ayatollah Khomeini, the
founding father of the IslamicRepublic, in one of his main,
very important speeches, onesays that in Farsi have seen his
own English translation would bethe perception or the protection
of the establishment is thehighest mandate. And he goes
further, that if between theprotecting the establishment
(19:42):
survival and doing prayer, youhave to choose one, you are
going to choose the protectionof the state. So I during this
campaign, I asked why, and I'vebeen interviewed about that, can
these attacks led to thecollapse of regime? My. My
personal assessment is that, no,I haven't seen any evidence.
(20:03):
Historically speaking, theaerial campaign solely can lead
to the collapse of thegovernment. If the aerial
campaign is followed by somewhatof a ground operation, either
foreign invasion, invasion ormass local armed uprising, that
can lead but if you just attacka country from the air, and
that's historically speaking,doesn't do it unless the country
(20:26):
is very weak and have a veryfragile infrastructure. Already,
in terms of Iran, the governmentis damaged. But one thing that
they show, and I think theyshould be very mindful, when
actually I'm writing a paperabout it, is that Islamic
Republic, despite all of this,is, you know, weaknesses. They
did a good job. It seems, oncoop proofing the military
(20:50):
leadership in almost gone. Theybrought new people. But we
haven't seen much of a, youknow, reports that the IRGC, or
atage, the conventional onearmy, wanted to revolt or have a
mutiny or remove the leadership.
And we also haven't seen anyreport that the high leadership
of Iranian military have theeffect. So it seems, in picking
people at the top, they kind ofdid a good job, in doing a
(21:12):
counter intelligence and all,they couldn't do any wars job.
But on that front, they kind of,I think they need to get the
credit. What would happen rightnow is, I believe, the main
problem that Islamic Republichas is not protecting the
establishment. Right now isprotecting the transition of
(21:33):
power once Ayatollah Khomeinidies, Ayatollah Khomeini is in
his late 80s. So His time iscoming sooner or later, and
almost his entire militaryhenchmen, those people he relied
on it since the QassemSoleimani, who was killed in
2020 until buchari, and manypeople who've been killed in
(21:55):
during the Israelis strike areout of picture right now. And
those people were people whowere supposed to guarantee and
smooth the transition of powerto his successor, a successor
that he had in mind. Yeah. Ithink now Islamic Republic needs
to find a solution that inabsence of those reliable
people, how they can smooth thetransition when the time comes.
(22:15):
That's the main problem oforder.
Jim Cardoso (22:18):
Hmm, very interesting. One last question.
So looking kind of beyond the,you know, the Thrash of the past
12 days, you've been doingresearch on the Axis of
Resistance. You've started a fewmonths ago. You're continuing it
through the through the fall.
You're going to continue tocover it. What's your take on
its future? You and I havetalked about the fact that last
year was, you know, to quote thethe old children's book was the
(22:39):
very bad, no good, awful yearfor Iran, and that's seeming to
have continued into this year aswell. I mean, so the Axis of
Resistance, the many arm, themany tentacles of that axis, a
lot of them are, are either goneor seriously degraded. And then
Iran, as you said, you knowitself from the from the you
know, except for the very topand a lot of the senior
(23:01):
leadership has been decapitatedas well. What's the future look
like for that Axis ofResistance?
Arman Mahmoudian (23:07):
It's really good. It's a very good question.
I appreciate you asking yes, wein a initiative and or in our
episodes. I asked this questionto minion. I encourage you know
that our audience to go andwatch the interview we had, I
had with the general DrVladimir, and also the first
episode, the one with the DRMeloni and the panel on Iran, I
(23:30):
think the assumption right nowis the whole idea of forward
defense, which was establishingproxies and having them to fight
your fight. Work for the IslamicRepublic for about three to four
decades. For three decades, itdeters foreign invasion. It
helped Iran to advance itsinfluence. But there is a time
(23:53):
for everything to come. There isa time of exploration. You know,
I believe October 7 Yahya, sadwar by launching the terrorist
attack against Israeli civilianand military Muslim civilian on
the October 7 of 2023 marked theend of the Axis of Resistance.
But what do I mean by end? It'snot like that the Axis of
(24:14):
Resistance would be out of thepicture. These mini shows always
will be at some level ofcapacity. Even Hamas wouldn't be
completely eradicated, becausethe ideology will be there. It
will be weaker, though, like theal Qaeda or ISIS, it is still
there, but not as powerful as itused to be. I think what would
happen, and that's the essencethat I get, from our guests to
(24:35):
Iran, is going to heavilyreshuffle its defense, security
and regional doctrine, meaningless reliance on the militias
now, because, evidently, theIran being invaded, so the
primarily goal of having themilitias, the deterring other
parties, has failed. Irandoesn't have the largest stick.
(25:00):
That it used to have to supportthem. Assad is no longer in the
picture. So Hezbollah might nolonger be the priority of Iran's
regional policy. I think whatwill be happen, and just my
anticipation, might be wrong ina close future, if Islamic
Republic survive all of theseand the cease fire goes to the
place and tomorrow, therewouldn't be a ground invasion of
(25:20):
Iran or a strike Iraqi strike atAllah Khomeini, because that
also changed things too. Iranwould first shift its military
doctrine mostly on air defensecapability, Air Force, if they
can buy it, and second, mostlikely, they would prioritize
Iraq and Yemen to Lebanon, Syriaand media and the Palestine. So
(25:45):
even the priorities of scale,which in past used to be
Hezbollah and Syria, wouldchange the Hezbollah in Syria,
they like it or not, they cannothave a priority. But the
Hezbollah would no longer bepriority. Iraq would be priority
because in Iraq is not the matonly a matter of deterrence or
forward defense. Iraq,historically, is, speaking,
(26:05):
actually been a source of threatto Iran, because it's a vibrant
country. Is very resourceful. Ifit's the it get itself
stabilized, it can actuallyproject trade against Iran. I
think influence in Iraq andYemen would be priority, and
Islamic Republic would readjustits the right stuff. It's
monetary doctrine and ambitions
Jim Cardoso (26:23):
that is. That's fantastic analysis. I mean, we
could talk about this all day.
There's so many nuances, but wewant to keep this tight, just
for our audience, so they can wecan get this out. Hopefully
things won't change too muchbefore we record this and and we
actually publish it. But Armand,thank you so much for joining us
from an undisclosed location,which I don't know looks strange
(26:44):
like your living room, but I'lljust call it an undisclosed
location on vacation. Thank youfor joining us today. So many.
Thanks to GNSI research fellowDr Armond makhmutan for keeping
us current and informed on theevents unfolding every hour,
basically, in Iran, Israel inthe Middle East. He's also
frequent contributor BBC Persiaprogramming, and like I said,
(27:04):
You'll see him on LinkedIn andX, a great analysis there, and
he's currently leading genocideAxis of Resistance research, a
comprehensive analysis of thecountries and non state actors
assembled by Iran over theyears, specializing in malign
influence over the region. Fact,the latest video for that
project just dropped this pastweek on our YouTube channel. Be
(27:25):
sure to check it out next weekon at the boundary in our
regular episode, we'll bechecking in with author, Dr Jeff
rogg, who's also a seniorresearch fellow here at GNSI.
His new book, The Spy in thestate, the history of American
intelligence, has grabbednational attention around the
intelligence community. We'relooking forward to that
interview. It's going to be agreat conversation. Don't miss
(27:45):
it.
That's going to wrap up thisepisode of at the boundary. Each
new episode will feature globaland national security issues we
found to be insightful,intriguing, maybe controversial,
but overall, just worth talkingabout. I'm Jim Cardoso, and
(28:08):
we'll see you at the boundary.
You.
Jim, hello everyone. Welcome to a
(00:11):
special episode of at theboundary, the podcast from the
global and national securityInstitute at the University of
South Florida. I'm Jim Cardoso,Senior Director of GNSI, and
your host for at the boundary,because of the events unfolding
across Iran, Israel and the restof the Middle East over the past
12 days, we thought it would bea great idea to bring in GNSI
(00:34):
Research Fellow, Dr Armonmahmoudian for a special episode
to gather his insights on theconflict that is now directly
drawn in the United States.
Armon has been on various mediasources constantly over the past
two weeks, and I highlyrecommend his analysis on
LinkedIn and X even before that,he has been leading a research
(00:56):
project here at GNSI called theAxis of Resistance. It's a
comprehensive analysis of thegroup of countries and non state
groups brought together by Iranin a loose coalition designed to
destabilize the region. End ofnote, Arman is joining us from
vacation, so we need to youknow, recognize the dedication.
Thank you for that, Arman, andwelcome back to the podcast. My
(01:20):
pleasure. Thank you for invitingme. I appreciate the kind
introduction. As always, greatto be here. Thank you. So we are
recording this on the afternoonof June 24 and I make that
disclaimer because we've watchedepisodes or, you know, events
change on a daily basis, so whenthis comes out, there could be
some adjustments from then, butwe're just going to talk about
(01:42):
what we know up till June 24 atabout 330 in the afternoon,
Eastern Time. So Armand whatgive us a quick summary, from
your perspective, where we'vebeen over the past 12 days and
where we're at now? Well, Ithink 12 days ago, on June 13,
Israelis believe that
Arman Mahmoudian (02:03):
two facts, the momentum that they had in terms
of Iran's weakness, Iran hasbeen weakened since October. So
when proxy system completelybeen, not completely been
dismantled, but there has beenthis de organized. There is no
adopting it, naturalized it.
Hezbollah is weaker. Hamas is atthe verge of losing its
territory. As a result of thepictures, Saudis received the
serious suffer the seriousSaudis hooties Suffer the
(02:26):
serious blow from the south,from the Americans and Israelis.
So 111, on one hand is Iran wasweakened in Israeli assessment
and many others. It was theweakest point they had since the
Iran Iraq War, and the chancesof you finding them in a similar
position again in two years,five years, 10 years, it would
be risky. You know, you neverknow what happens, but you never
(02:48):
can be assured after two and thesecond thing was that the
Iranian breakthrough to have abuild, to build a bomb, was
closer, as always, however, youknow, I don't want to get to the
intelligence assessment debatethat How close were they. But
what we knew is that the Iran'snuclear project had all
component, from the heavyRichter reactor to enrich
(03:09):
uranium to undergroundfacilities, to the labs,
everything, and the science, theknow how to have the bomb, to
build the bomb. Iran's stockpileafter enriched uranium, was
heavily high. It was somethingabout around the 400 kilogram so
we were at the situation that ifIran made the political decision
to build a bomb, it wouldn't bejust a bomb, it would be almost
(03:30):
a nuclear arsenal. Estimates wasthat Iran could, could have been
about 10 bomb with the stockpilethey had. So there was a
chessboard game was set for theIsraelis to act on it, and they
act on it. They act on it withthe precise military operation,
but more importantly, with thevery sophisticated intelligence
operation. They dismantled agood chunk of Iran's at least
(03:54):
sophisticated aerial defense.
They de organized or decapitatedIran's military
leadership, not necessarilythrough aerial attack outside of
Iran, but through the souls theyhad inside the Tehran and the
rest of the country. And fromthere we got to the exchange of
(04:16):
fire between the two countriesin which Israelis focus on
Iran's military infrastructures,Iran's military leadership and
nuclear project and some othercomponents of them, Iranian were
much more interested ininflicting pressure on the
Israelis population andsocialist society. That's why,
that's that is why a good chunkof Iranian attacks were
(04:37):
discriminatory, basically,attacking both the civilians and
military targets. The idea,probably behind of it was that
by completely disrupting thedaily life of citizen, and
Israel, being a democracy, theycan make a pressure on the
Netanyahu. And you know, youknow, pushing or pressing
Israelis back to back down bothsides reach. In a cease fire
(05:01):
yesterday on June 23 whichalmost was broke hours later in
earlier today. June 24 what weknow now, what that? What the
damages and the losses of theboat side Iran's nuclear project
has been seriously damaged, butit is very hard to say, is it
(05:23):
completely destroyed or not.
There are some news today wehave read another news is that
the, I believe it was theWallace Street Journal, you
know, quoting from an assistant,or at White House or White House
assistant, that it seems one ofthe component of the border is
unharmed. It's very hard toverify it's about 60 meters
under the ground or mountain. Soit's until the there are
inspectation inspections causewhat we can say, but what we
(05:49):
know, Nathan's is almost gone.
The heavy reactor in Iraq isgone. Laboratories and
facilities in a small one iscomplete. It seems to be
completely destroyed. Thereactor they had in Tehran is
out of the picture too. Anentire tier of Iran military
leadership is gone, the Chief ofStaff of the Chief of Staff the
(06:12):
command two, commander of theIRGC is back to back, commander
of the IRGC ground forces, two,commander of the IRGC
intelligence organization, evensome former intelligence you
know, officers, including thetop who was a former
intelligence of who was theformer commander of IRGC
intelligence Iran's ballisticmissiles has been and its site
(06:35):
production, its manufacture, itsfuel production, being heavily
damaged. It seems Iran has lostat least about half of its
launchers. So now Iran in theposition that its manufacture of
the missiles has been degraded,but also the cap capability to
deliver the missiles, being asan underground the size or the
(06:55):
launchers have been alsoundermined. So the damages on
Iranian side is significant. Onthe Israeli side, the damage is
going to be mostly economic,rather than the military. The
war itself cost Israel somethingabout $290 million per day only
for the air defense. So each dayof their air defense operation
cost almost a $300 million thereis a The report says that about
(07:19):
eight to 10,000 Israelis haslost their home during the
Iranian attacks. Or, you know,the either totally been
destroyed, like the attacks thathappened on June 23 later hours,
or, you know, badly needs a thatrepair. Then the Israelis also
now are facing a dilemma aboutthe for low and more
importantly, I think thequestion now is that where is
(07:40):
Iran's stockpile of the enricheduranium? This 400 kilogram can
be a game changer, because thereis always a fear that Iran might
Iran has the know how of theenriching uranium and building
centrifuges. I think that's thereality that we need accept, and
I think everybody accepts. Sothe fear is that Iran might
build smaller cell of theenriched uranium here and there,
(08:04):
and then use that stock wallthat already has to build a
bomb, or dirty bomb. So that'sthe question that Israel is
intelligence committee, and I'msure the United States
Intelligence Committee has sofar. That's the assessment of
the
Jim Cardoso (08:17):
and that was, and that's, I mean, that took, that
takes a lot of stuff that'shappened over the past 12 days,
and capsule boils it down. Andthere's a lot, I mean, there's a
lot of nuance. Understand thatthat you didn't cover as well,
but that was a that was a greatsummary. Thank you so much. I
mean, a big part of it too,obviously, from the US
perspective, is us is entry intothe conflict.
And President Trump, I mean,stated that the goal, the
(08:42):
objective, was, Iran cannot havea nuclear weapon. You've sort of
touched on this, but I'm gonna,I'm gonna ask you to kind of dig
into that a bit more. Do youthink, did they succeed? Did the
us succeed in keeping them fromhaving a nuclear weapon?
Arman Mahmoudian (08:58):
I think United States and the operation against
the
Jim Cardoso (10:56):
succeeded in that goal. I've read, you know, not
just the ability to build thebomb, to build a bomb, but the
will to build a bomb. And I'veread two schools of thought,
again, assuming the cease firein place now holds, I've kind of
read two schools of thoughtstarting to emerge. One is that
Iran willnot pursue building the bomb so
(11:19):
much because they've, you know,there's a sense that they'll
just get swapped again by theIsraelis, maybe assisted by the
United States. That's school ofthought, number one school of
thought. Two is, since they havealmost nothing left. I mean,
they're, like you said, a goodpart of their missile capability
is gone. A great amount of theirsenior leadership is gone, and
(11:40):
so they're gonna have to fillthose vacuums as well. The
second school's thought as well.
That's all we got it to defendourselves as a nuclear weapon.
And they've seen some successfrom other nations about having
especially when you look atRussia and Ukraine, a lot of the
time, some of the you know, anysense of lack of activity
against Russia is because theyhad the ability to strike back
(12:01):
with nuclear capability. What'syour thought on those two
schools of thought, and whichone do you support more?
Arman Mahmoudian (12:08):
This is a really good question, and I
think that's one of the mostimportant questions right
now. Look, Iran, it's verydelicate position. Was Iran been
attacked by two countries withinthe last two weeks that they
both have nuclear weapons. Atleast one of them has and the
other, allegedly the Israelis.
So it makes an impact on yourdecision making, I think, which
(12:33):
way Iran goes to build a bomb orto completely, you know,
distance itself from the bomb,because there's always option of
being a Japan. You know, afterWorld War Two, the cost of World
War Two was so heavy for theJapan is that for a long time,
they didn't wanted to doanything with the armed forces.
They even called the militarythe defense forces. I mean, they
were really, really persistentto kind of then there was a
(12:54):
desire among the German part,the Japanese public, to lesser
extent, the German, but theGerman were facing the
territorial split after the ColdWar, the impact for them was a
bit different. So there is achance that Iranian might do
that, but there is also a chancethat the Iranians, as you said,
want to get the build thestronger deterrence. I think
there is another factor thatplays a role in it, and the
(13:17):
factor that plays a role in itis that to what extent Israelis
wants to leverage Iran'smilitary weakness. So let's say
that Israel wants to apply thezero tolerance policy toward
Iran, which is a policy theyhave in Lebanon, and basically
means that whenever or whereverthat Israel feels something is
(13:39):
happening that might treat anIsraeli security they targeted,
and they're actively doing it inLebanon. They are doing it in
Gaza too, for the veryreasonable reasons. Let's say
that they want to do this inIran. There is air defense being
built. There is a ballisticmissile site over here. They
want to target. That would putIranian in the position to find
out, well, with this, we cannotbe a sovereign estate. We can't
(14:02):
do anything. So we need to havea jackpot call in order to, you
know, to tell them that, look,there is one thing else that I
have in mind, or I have in mypocket, if the application of
the zero policy to against theIran Israel's goal, I think the
likelihood of the IslamicRepublic seeks somewhat of a
(14:22):
nuclear bomb is more likely, ifnot, I that's a different
question. It's very hard stillto answer, yeah, but I think
less likely Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (14:34):
it is hard to answer. And I mean, you know, in
the past, we could say, well,you know, Israel's actions will
normally have a level ofsupport, or least alignment with
US national interest. But thelast 12 days has shown that
sometimes Israelis are justgoing to do what the Israelis
think they got to do. They'regoing to do what's in their best
(14:54):
national interest. And really,in this case, it seems like the
US sort of got pulled. Pulledinto it, towards something that
multiple administrations have, Imean, for you know, third three
decades, administration saidIran cannot have a nuclear
weapon. And it's sort of likethe US sort of got hold into
action here to actually dosomething about that. So now
(15:17):
that that's been done, you know,Iran, they launched some
missiles at us, forces in Qatarthat really didn't seem to have
much impact that, I mean to you,does that seem almost like a
half hearted effort by Iran justto kind of say, well, we did
something, but not reallysomething that would escalate
things?
Arman Mahmoudian (15:35):
Well, absolutely, absolutely look,
first of President Trump himselfconfirmed that Iranian let the
Americans know there was anadvance notice in his social
media troops so shocked him, hetanked Iranian for the early
notice. And I was tracking theevents in the Persian Gulf.
Qatar shot down its airspaceabout two hours before the
(15:55):
Iranian missile attack. NotIraqis, not us Qatar, later on,
join on. So I think there was areally preparation because, and
it wasn't like AyatollahKhomeini was concerned about the
life of the American soldiers.
It was purely a pragmaticdecision for Iran, opening a
second front of war would be theexact result that had for the
(16:18):
Germany. Or even worse, duringthe World War Two, in the 1941
they already had significantproblem with the British. Then
they decided, okay, you knowwhat? We are really busy with
the English now. We are alsogoing to invade the
Jim Cardoso (16:31):
right let's go attack Russia. What a great idea
that was. Yeah, exactly. And you
Arman Mahmoudian (16:35):
know how it turned for them? It changed. It
changed entirely their faith.
And I think Islamic Republic wasvery much happened if they have
done something to seriouslydamage the Americans that might
have been the end of the IslamicRepublic as an entity that we
know, at least in a shape thatwe at least see it. Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (16:53):
do you think that, though there may be some other
counteractions lurking outthere, maybe something
asymmetric? You know, there'sbeen a lot of discussion about
some type of cyber attack on usinfrastructure, or something
like that. You see that stilllurking out there as a
possibility?
Arman Mahmoudian (17:11):
Yes, there is a speculation about many things,
the cyber attacks, the so calledsleeper cells. I would say there
might be some demonstration ofthe capability, but not
necessarily an aggressiveattack. And what do I mean is
(17:32):
that,
Jim Cardoso (17:33):
is that, almost, for like, internal purposes more
than external, like maybe toYeah, to show the Iranian
people, yes, we're doingsomething. We are, we're
counter, we're counterattacking, but not really to
inflame the situation. Extra,
Arman Mahmoudian (17:46):
exactly, yeah, exactly, to kind of, you know,
send a signal to the people, andalso maybe send a signal to the
foreigners that, yes, they havea stuff to buy. You know, how to
walk you with it. So, but Ireally doubt that at this point,
it's it just not. It's notrational, and it's not in their
interest to do something likethe damage to the strategic
(18:07):
interest or the life of theAmericans or other countries
that to do it right now, theyare in a very, very weak
position. They have a lot torecover. There's a great chance
that they won't recover from agood chunk of the damage been
done to them. It just doesn'tseem rational. But the states
can be rational too. So I wantto just, you know, put this,
this whole idea that the statesalways operate rational is a
(18:30):
myth. We have seen countriesbeing irrational on and off, so
I don't know, but it's notrational. I can't tell that.
Yeah,
Jim Cardoso (18:39):
Iran's, I mean, their number one goal, in a lot
of ways, is to preservation ofthe of the administration,
preservation of the IslamicState of Iran, and not that to
from everything I've alwaysheard and read that that is
that, by far, it goes beyond anyof their other national
(18:59):
interests, which being, youknow, the elimination of Israel,
being the elimination of theinjection of the United States
from the area the, you know,keeping propping up their, their
their, their various arms of theof the Axis of Resistance. You
see that, you see them beingable to maintain that though,
through this, right?
Arman Mahmoudian (19:21):
Yes, and that is true. Ayatollah Khomeini, the
founding father of the IslamicRepublic, in one of his main,
very important speeches, onesays that in Farsi have seen his
own English translation would bethe perception or the protection
of the establishment is thehighest mandate. And he goes
further, that if between theprotecting the establishment
(19:42):
survival and doing prayer, youhave to choose one, you are
going to choose the protectionof the state. So I during this
campaign, I asked why, and I'vebeen interviewed about that, can
these attacks led to thecollapse of regime? My. My
personal assessment is that, no,I haven't seen any evidence.
(20:03):
Historically speaking, theaerial campaign solely can lead
to the collapse of thegovernment. If the aerial
campaign is followed by somewhatof a ground operation, either
foreign invasion, invasion ormass local armed uprising, that
can lead but if you just attacka country from the air, and
that's historically speaking,doesn't do it unless the country
(20:26):
is very weak and have a veryfragile infrastructure. Already,
in terms of Iran, the governmentis damaged. But one thing that
they show, and I think theyshould be very mindful, when
actually I'm writing a paperabout it, is that Islamic
Republic, despite all of this,is, you know, weaknesses. They
did a good job. It seems, oncoop proofing the military
(20:50):
leadership in almost gone. Theybrought new people. But we
haven't seen much of a, youknow, reports that the IRGC, or
atage, the conventional onearmy, wanted to revolt or have a
mutiny or remove the leadership.
And we also haven't seen anyreport that the high leadership
of Iranian military have theeffect. So it seems, in picking
people at the top, they kind ofdid a good job, in doing a
(21:12):
counter intelligence and all,they couldn't do any wars job.
But on that front, they kind of,I think they need to get the
credit. What would happen rightnow is, I believe, the main
problem that Islamic Republichas is not protecting the
establishment. Right now isprotecting the transition of
(21:33):
power once Ayatollah Khomeinidies, Ayatollah Khomeini is in
his late 80s. So His time iscoming sooner or later, and
almost his entire militaryhenchmen, those people he relied
on it since the QassemSoleimani, who was killed in
2020 until buchari, and manypeople who've been killed in
(21:55):
during the Israelis strike areout of picture right now. And
those people were people whowere supposed to guarantee and
smooth the transition of powerto his successor, a successor
that he had in mind. Yeah. Ithink now Islamic Republic needs
to find a solution that inabsence of those reliable
people, how they can smooth thetransition when the time comes.
(22:15):
That's the main problem oforder.
Jim Cardoso (22:18):
Hmm, very interesting. One last question.
So looking kind of beyond the,you know, the Thrash of the past
12 days, you've been doingresearch on the Axis of
Resistance. You've started a fewmonths ago. You're continuing it
through the through the fall.
You're going to continue tocover it. What's your take on
its future? You and I havetalked about the fact that last
year was, you know, to quote thethe old children's book was the
(22:39):
very bad, no good, awful yearfor Iran, and that's seeming to
have continued into this year aswell. I mean, so the Axis of
Resistance, the many arm, themany tentacles of that axis, a
lot of them are, are either goneor seriously degraded. And then
Iran, as you said, you knowitself from the from the you
know, except for the very topand a lot of the senior
(23:01):
leadership has been decapitatedas well. What's the future look
like for that Axis ofResistance?
Arman Mahmoudian (23:07):
It's really good. It's a very good question.
I appreciate you asking yes, wein a initiative and or in our
episodes. I asked this questionto minion. I encourage you know
that our audience to go andwatch the interview we had, I
had with the general DrVladimir, and also the first
episode, the one with the DRMeloni and the panel on Iran, I
(23:30):
think the assumption right nowis the whole idea of forward
defense, which was establishingproxies and having them to fight
your fight. Work for the IslamicRepublic for about three to four
decades. For three decades, itdeters foreign invasion. It
helped Iran to advance itsinfluence. But there is a time
(23:53):
for everything to come. There isa time of exploration. You know,
I believe October 7 Yahya, sadwar by launching the terrorist
attack against Israeli civilianand military Muslim civilian on
the October 7 of 2023 marked theend of the Axis of Resistance.
But what do I mean by end? It'snot like that the Axis of
(24:14):
Resistance would be out of thepicture. These mini shows always
will be at some level ofcapacity. Even Hamas wouldn't be
completely eradicated, becausethe ideology will be there. It
will be weaker, though, like theal Qaeda or ISIS, it is still
there, but not as powerful as itused to be. I think what would
happen, and that's the essencethat I get, from our guests to
(24:35):
Iran, is going to heavilyreshuffle its defense, security
and regional doctrine, meaningless reliance on the militias
now, because, evidently, theIran being invaded, so the
primarily goal of having themilitias, the deterring other
parties, has failed. Irandoesn't have the largest stick.
(25:00):
That it used to have to supportthem. Assad is no longer in the
picture. So Hezbollah might nolonger be the priority of Iran's
regional policy. I think whatwill be happen, and just my
anticipation, might be wrong ina close future, if Islamic
Republic survive all of theseand the cease fire goes to the
place and tomorrow, therewouldn't be a ground invasion of
(25:20):
Iran or a strike Iraqi strike atAllah Khomeini, because that
also changed things too. Iranwould first shift its military
doctrine mostly on air defensecapability, Air Force, if they
can buy it, and second, mostlikely, they would prioritize
Iraq and Yemen to Lebanon, Syriaand media and the Palestine. So
(25:45):
even the priorities of scale,which in past used to be
Hezbollah and Syria, wouldchange the Hezbollah in Syria,
they like it or not, they cannothave a priority. But the
Hezbollah would no longer bepriority. Iraq would be priority
because in Iraq is not the matonly a matter of deterrence or
forward defense. Iraq,historically, is, speaking,
(26:05):
actually been a source of threatto Iran, because it's a vibrant
country. Is very resourceful. Ifit's the it get itself
stabilized, it can actuallyproject trade against Iran. I
think influence in Iraq andYemen would be priority, and
Islamic Republic would readjustits the right stuff. It's
monetary doctrine and ambitions
Jim Cardoso (26:23):
that is. That's fantastic analysis. I mean, we
could talk about this all day.
There's so many nuances, but wewant to keep this tight, just
for our audience, so they can wecan get this out. Hopefully
things won't change too muchbefore we record this and and we
actually publish it. But Armand,thank you so much for joining us
from an undisclosed location,which I don't know looks strange
(26:44):
like your living room, but I'lljust call it an undisclosed
location on vacation. Thank youfor joining us today. So many.
Thanks to GNSI research fellowDr Armond makhmutan for keeping
us current and informed on theevents unfolding every hour,
basically, in Iran, Israel inthe Middle East. He's also
frequent contributor BBC Persiaprogramming, and like I said,
(27:04):
You'll see him on LinkedIn andX, a great analysis there, and
he's currently leading genocideAxis of Resistance research, a
comprehensive analysis of thecountries and non state actors
assembled by Iran over theyears, specializing in malign
influence over the region. Fact,the latest video for that
project just dropped this pastweek on our YouTube channel. Be
(27:25):
sure to check it out next weekon at the boundary in our
regular episode, we'll bechecking in with author, Dr Jeff
rogg, who's also a seniorresearch fellow here at GNSI.
His new book, The Spy in thestate, the history of American
intelligence, has grabbednational attention around the
intelligence community. We'relooking forward to that
interview. It's going to be agreat conversation. Don't miss
(27:45):
it.
That's going to wrap up thisepisode of at the boundary. Each
new episode will feature globaland national security issues we
found to be insightful,intriguing, maybe controversial,
but overall, just worth talkingabout. I'm Jim Cardoso, and
(28:08):
we'll see you at the boundary.
You.
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.