Carvana’s Wild Ride Continues, 25% of Loans Have Negative Equity, The Gen X Factor

Shoot us a Text.

Episode #1112: Carvana’s stock hits jaw-dropping highs while negative equity haunts car buyers. At the same time, a new report says Gen X may quietly be the most powerful consumer group of the next decade.

Show Notes with links:

• What once seemed like a dying online used‑car startup has roared back. Carvana’s share price hit an all‑time high in late July 2025—up over 10,000% from the December 2022 bottom—while short-sellers suffered nearly $7.42 billion in losses.
  • Q2 2025 sales hit $4.84 billion, up 42% year-over-year. Retail units sold jumped 41% to 143,280; wholesale units rose 44.5% to 72,770.
  • Net income surged to $308 million with record profit margins across the board.
  • Traditional peers have seen modest stock gains by comparison — AutoNation is up about 80% and Lithia around 44% — with CarMax actually down roughly 7% in the same period.
  • CEO Ernie Garcia III called Carvana “the fastest‑growing and most profitable automotive retailer.”
  • “This rally…is one of the most spectacular recoveries in modern market history,” said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial.

• A growing share of U.S. car buyers are finding themselves stuck in negative equity, with Edmunds reporting the average underwater loan balance at $6,754 in Q2 2025 — one of the highest levels seen in years.
  • 26.6% of new‑car trade‑ins were upside down, a four‑year high.
  • Average negative equity climbed to $6,754, up $500 from 2024.
  • Nearly one in three underwater trade‑ins carried $5,000–$10,000 in debt.
  • The average monthly payment for these buyers hit $915 — $159 above the industry average.
  • Edmunds’ Ivan Drury warns: “Many are at risk of getting stuck in a cycle of debt that only grows harder to break over time.”

• While millennials and Gen Z grab headlines, new research shows Gen X — those born between 1965 and 1980 — may be the most influential consumer group of the next decade.
  • Gen X is set to remain the world’s highest-spending demographic through 2033.
  • In 2025 alone, they’re projected to drive $507B in food and beverage sales, $80B in beauty, and $42B in alcohol.
  • Nearly 40% use AI assistants for shopping recommendations, defying “tech-averse” stereotypes.
  • 72% prefer name brands over private label, bucking the store-brand trend.
  • “Gen Xers are the gatekeepers of trillions in spending, effectively serving as the CFOs of three generations,” said Wolfgang Fengler of World Data Lab.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/