Episode Transcript
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Paul J Daly (00:01):
You know, I gotta
get the music right, because it
is Friday, March 28 This is theautomotive State of the Union.
I'm Paul J Daly with KyleMountsier today. We're talking
about tariffs and taxdeductions. And
Kyle Mountsier (00:14):
Fisker, we're
talking about sure are when they
see me, come on now.
Paul J Daly (00:20):
Yeah, little weird
one little fiscal action in New
York City, yes, which, which ispretty applicable. Kind of
created my own segue there,because I was in New York City
yesterday for a private cars.comdealer event. And so let me, let
me explain my day. So wake up at415 so I can fly to New York
City, fly to Newark Airport?
Meet with James Orsini, who is,was the COO of Vayner Media, and
(00:44):
he was the publicly traded, youknow, CEO of Seto mobile, and
Sachi. And Sachi, right? Thisguy is done a couple of two
treat things. He literally justrips with wisdom. It's
unbelievable. So we meet, which,by the way, is a great place to
meet for breakfast. You'reflying to Newark Airport. They
got a great little breakfastrestaurant there. So we just sat
and, yeah, really, really good.
(01:06):
So I'm there. Have a greatbreakfast. We had breakfast at
like, eight o'clock in themorning or whatever. I was like,
I'm always curious in a hotel.
Let me walk around this place.
Let me see what the conferenceroom is with the museums are not
always. Yeah. And what do I runinto? None other than the tri
state regional Mercedes Benz ofAmerica meeting. Wow, I do the
thing I gotta, you know, flashthe love people morning, love
(01:27):
car shirts, and inevitably, Istart having conversations. Had
a few conversations there. I wasreally hoping I saw my friend,
Greg CEO senior, but becausehe's a Mercedes dealer, but he
wasn't there, I texted him. Soexcited. Okay, so then drive to
Roslyn, New York, which is anhour and a half New York City
time, right? I'm just jerky carride. I'm car sick because I'm
trying to work the whole time.
And it's, you know, I get myselftogether. I'm like, Okay, I'm
(01:50):
gonna go into this little placecalled Hendricks tavern. I walk
in nice little, you know, it'sthe part of Long Island. It
doesn't feel like New York Cityanymore. You got trees and hills
and, yeah, no, I know everythingout there is, like, nice, great,
yeah, I passed Brian penstockalong the way. I didn't, but
he's out there somewhere. I walkin, and it's at this point, it's
like, 1130 meeting, from 12 totwo. Say the hostess. It's like,
(02:12):
Hey, I'm here for the cards.commeeting. And she just stares at
me. She goes, That wasyesterday. Oh, I know. I know
because I was here. Heart sunk.
I was never in my life. I mean,I forget details from time to
time. I have no idea. I can findit. It was, that was the date.
(02:35):
It was on my calendar. And so,of course, I reach out to Juliet
cars text her picture. I'm like,I'm here right now. I'm so
sorry.
Unknown (02:44):
Oh, no.
Paul J Daly (02:51):
That is, that's a
vibe. So that is a vibe. If I
knew we were gonna talk aboutthis thing, adoring me, no idea.
Like I'm saying I was just whenyou and I were slacking and get
worked out I was just sitting inan airport lounge, just waiting.
No, you wait for the old flight.
The good side is I got a lotmore work done yesterday than I
thought. You got so much workdone. There was no one
Kyle Mountsier (03:13):
now. You gotta
lie with James or see me. You
good? Oh, my goodness. The coolthing
Paul J Daly (03:19):
is gonna be back
hosting a panel for them at one
of their events before the NewYork Auto Show and all that. By
the way, I don't know if we'regoing to that. We have to figure
that out. Yeah, I actually wasgoing to ask you about that.
We'll talk about that after thepodcast. Yeah, okay, so, I mean,
look, we're going to be togetherat a thing. It's called ASOTU
CON. We're supposed to talkabout it now. We're getting
inbound from everywhere aboutright now, but if you're
(03:40):
planning on going, please go getyour tickets. Do we have hotel
rooms left in the main event?
Hotel just a couple two trees.
It's getting real tight, so theymight be gone by the end of
today. So go to ASOTU CON com.
You're gonna get your ticketsthere's cheap as they're gonna
be. Get 'em now, book your hotelroom. Be there with us. Let me
just tell you the swag this yearis gonna be nutso popping. All
right, let's talk about somenews. You know, this was
(04:00):
yesterday spilling into today.
Still, we have some comments foryou from some dealers. Trump.
Sweeping tariff order is shakingthe world. The new 25% terror
levy hits nearly all foreignbuilt vehicles and key
components. Analysts arepredicting 4000 to $12,000 price
hikes. Cox automotive warningthat 30% of us, vehicle
(04:20):
production could be disruptedwithin one week. Whoa, that's
the crazy part. GM stock fell 9%stellantis, it said that 75% of
their profits could go away as aresult of these tariffs. Even
Tesla is not safe. Elon Muskcalling the impact significant
due to global parts sourcing. Sohere's here's what some of our
(04:41):
people say. Michael Wood, gm ofJaguar Land Rover in Virginia
Beach on LinkedIn said, quote,this will inadvertently heavily
impact a brand that never hadjobs here in the first place.
That's right. The outcome couldbe disastrous for those working
at these stores. Volumes godown. Staff is reduced and
displaced. Rob Malinowski,internet. Director at ancient
Nissan said on LinkedIn. Quote,if you're a car shopper, you
(05:05):
will get to choose betweenpaying more for a non US built
vehicle, paying more for a USbuilt vehicle, or deciding you
don't really need a car rightnow, but we'll see a ton of
people in group three.
Kyle Mountsier (05:17):
Whoa, that's
wild. Here's the, you know, the
thing that I still have yet toget the answer on is, like,
vehicles that are already in thestates, like that have crossed
the import borders. Like, do weget, like, is that, like,
already produced off of lotsacross the import borders? Like,
are they gonna go slap thoseretro actively or,
Paul J Daly (05:38):
like, it'd be
really hard, because once that
gets through customs and clears,it's like, it's in the country
at the price, it's in thecountry Exactly.
Kyle Mountsier (05:46):
So I don't you
know, the people saying within
one week kind of surprises me.
Now it's going to impact thestuff that is coming in this
week, which is going to hitground stock in a couple weeks,
three, four weeks, right? Butthat's where, like, Oh, do you
all of a sudden seemanufacturers bumping MSRPs,
like, at Port, you know,changing those windows. What
Paul J Daly (06:07):
did they go into
effect on what April 4? Yeah,
all right. So,
Kyle Mountsier (06:11):
so your ground
stock is probably safe, right?
Your port stock is probablyalready safe. And
Paul J Daly (06:16):
every captain of
every ship in the water is like,
can we get it to go anything? Wego faster right now, I
Kyle Mountsier (06:22):
was into, like,
turn on the Jets, bro, when
Paul J Daly (06:25):
I landed, I flew
over, and then later drove by a
big, you know, the one of thebig auto lots there, right on
the border, and I saw, and all Icould, literally, all can think
of, is the tariffs, little low,plus 25 we're gonna see
Kyle Mountsier (06:36):
how it goes. I
know long term plan.
Paul J Daly (06:40):
It's not in the
show notes, but he did, he did
mention leniency right in thething. And I think most analysts
think that the leniency is mostlikely going to be geared
towards our northern andsouthern neighbors. Yep, that's,
you know, probably at thispoint, probably Mexico over
Canada, because they just, they,they like to spat it out right
now. Yeah, it's a thing. Itreally is a thing. Speaking of a
(07:03):
thing, tax season. Do you noticeit was tax season?
Kyle Mountsier (07:07):
I have noticed
that everybody's talking about
it.
Paul J Daly (07:09):
I know President
Trump did propose a tax
deduction for interest paid onloans for cars, yay. But only
for vehicles made in America.
The idea announced alongsidethat 25% tariff on imported
vehicles has drawn some mixedreactions from dealers and
analysts alike. Dealers aresplit. They say it could help
consumers, while others doubtits feasibility. Like, how are
(07:33):
we going to make all this work?
Like, how are you going to trackit back? It sounds like an admin
nightmare. Analysts say thededuction could save buyers
around $20 a month, but tariffscould add 60 to $90 to payments.
So used car prices could evenrise nine to 12% due to the
increased demand for domesticmodels White House speaker and
(07:55):
speaker Johnson's office haveyet to confirm details,
including whether the deductionapplies to standard tax filers,
probably not if you're on thestandard deduction for dealer.
Nick Anderson said, quote, Ithink it's Trump's way of trying
to regulate interest rates.
Calling it a pipe dream, Trumpargues the policy will pay for
itself by increasing US autoproduction.
Kyle Mountsier (08:16):
Yeah. I mean,
all of this is an effort to
increase US auto production. Wetalked about yesterday, Hyundai,
Kyle, general Genesis, alreadyleaning into that, having been
leaned into that in the last fewyears. It's like they saw
something coming. You know, thisis, I said, I kind of said this
as we were segwaying. Here is,you know, short term, short term
changes may have long termimpact, but they have a
(08:37):
significant short, short term,or long term changes have short
term impacts. And that's thethat's the question of, like,
how impactful is this going tobe? Can you imagine, right? The
tax professional being like,send me your van. Hits the VIN
API, sees what the vehicleactually is. I can imagine it.
They do wells it up on the list.
And then, and then, now, youknow how you get your, like,
mortgage statement. Every singleyear you're going to need to
(08:58):
have a, you know, all thosebanks are going to have to send
you a vehicle Interest Statementevery single year, right? 1098
or whatever. Like, yeah. Like,you're going to have a 1098
before. You know, it's going tobe like, 1090
Paul J Daly (09:10):
but it's going to
be a lot less than your real
estate interests, way less,yeah.
Kyle Mountsier (09:14):
Like, I can't
even imagine, like, you
definitely have to be in a placewhere you are, you know, pulling
out the Schedule A, doingitemized deductions for
something like this, becauseit's not a significant amount
whatsoever.
Paul J Daly (09:26):
No $20 I mean, you
know, again, to your point,
like, I think it's just tryingto really just point everything
back to, if we, like, increaseUS manufacturing and create good
paying jobs. It kind ofeverything else comes along, GDP
go, like, all of it. But withouta doubt, the biggest question
is, is, like, what's thepatience that people have for
it? Right? Consumers are gettingsqueezed. And unfortunately, the
(09:49):
consumers who are having thehardest time making the payments
are getting squeezed, orthey're, yeah, I mean, it's
gonna be a wild one. I'm justtrying to, like, think about,
like, well. US cars, domesticsare more expensive. Oh, used
cars. Used cars are going to getmore expensive. It's gonna, you
know, Paul, speaking
Kyle Mountsier (10:06):
of having a hard
time making payments.
Paul J Daly (10:10):
I mean, these cars
weren't very expensive
originally.
Kyle Mountsier (10:13):
If you didn't
know, Fisker did not make their
payments. They went bankrupt.
But what happens to 1000s ofFisker oceans after the company
goes bankrupt. We covered thisstory about a year ago, but the
full turnaround is now there. InNew York City, they are hitting
the streets as Uber and Lyftrides thanks to a fleet operator
with a vision and a Bronx repairshop. I remember they bought
them. Yeah. They bought them.
(10:35):
Yeah. So American lease boughtthese cars little over 3000
Fisker oceans for 42 point 5million. Definitely a steep
discount. It's 13 grand a piece.
Yeah, exactly. New York Citymandates all Uber and Lyft rides
be EV or wheelchair accessibleby 2030 so this company's way
ahead. Bhp Service Center in theBronx is now the go to repair
(10:56):
shop for these orphaned EVs.
Think about the retention onthat man. Shop owner Ronnie, is
already stockpiling parts,purchase wreck purchasing rec
vehicles and even making moldsfor body panels. This guy's got
3000 cars in the shop everysingle year, no matter what Come
on.
Paul J Daly (11:14):
I kind of imagine,
you know, when you see, like The
Matrix and how everyone like, inthe real world, everyone's kind
of like, dressed in, like, thethe natural, the natural
sackcloth fabric, and they have,but they have all this high tech
computer stuff around. Like,yeah, I feel like there's a guy
in that shot. That's that guythat's for shitting like, the
operator, and he's making surethat they don't brick, right?
(11:35):
He's writing the software tomake sure that those cars can
keep like, you know, he's likethis, he's like the crazy coffee
guy in Syracuse, but for that'sexactly what fiscal oceans.
Kyle Mountsier (11:44):
Yeah, he's like,
cash only, but they're
Paul J Daly (11:48):
renting them out
for like, 400 a month to Uber
drivers. So think about that. Imean, it's like, well, I mean,
at 400 a month, you're thinkinglike, it's though the car will
be paid off in two years. Imean, it's still you, you're
still putting a that was a bigbet to bet. It's about they're
gonna
Kyle Mountsier (12:06):
be fine. I hope
it's just smart. I wish I was. I
think it's a lot of cars that'skind of pencil
Paul J Daly (12:11):
3000 as long as
they keep from breaking, though
they're in good shape, there yougo. Wouldn't that be something?
I know that's just the fun, thisfun, this of the story in the
city,
Kyle Mountsier (12:19):
Fridays and the
industry Fridays on Fridays.
Paul J Daly (12:22):
Listen. Thank you
so much, especially to all of
those who were with us for our1,000th episode. This is now the
automotive State of the Unionpodcast on Paul Daly's Kyle
Mountsier, we'll see youtomorrow.
Unknown (12:42):
You