November 8, 2023 • 37 mins
On this Back Story host Dana Lewis interviews Israeli diplomat and former Government advisor Alon Pinkas;
-Can Hamas be removed from Gaza?
-Could an International force replace Israeli troops, with the UN leading a new Gaza for Palestinians?
-What are the risks of a wider conflict?
-And Israel's War Cabinet and Netanyahu's narrowing window on Governing his Country
-Can Hamas be removed from Gaza?
-Could an International force replace Israeli troops, with the UN leading a new Gaza for Palestinians?
-What are the risks of a wider conflict?
-And Israel's War Cabinet and Netanyahu's narrowing window on Governing his Country
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
P.M. Netanyahu (00:00):
Well, there'll be no ceasefire, general
ceasefire, in Gaza without therelease of our hostages.
As far as tactical littlepauses an hour here, an hour
there, we've had them before.
I suppose we'll check thecircumstances in order to enable
goods, humanitarian goods, tocome in or our hostages,
individual hostages, to leave.
(00:20):
But I don't think there's goingto be a general ceasefire.
It's not that I don't think.
I think it will hamper the wareffort.
It'll hamper our effort to getour hostages out, because the
only thing that works on thesecriminals in Hamas is the
military pressure that we'reexerting.
Dana Lewis (00:41):
Hi everyone and welcome to another edition of
Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
As we speak, the Israeli armyhas surrounded Gaza City.
1,400 Israelis were slain byHamas October the 7th.
Since then, hamas has held 242people hostages Israelis for
over a month, and God knows whatkind of terrible conditions.
(01:02):
These are the elderly, childrenand people who should not be
held and need to be released.
Israel's attempt to removeHamas from power in Gaza has
resulted in as many as 10,000deaths, say aid agencies.
Many of those are also children.
How does this end?
Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu has said that Israel
(01:23):
has overall securityresponsibility for the Gaza
Strip and will have it for anindefinite period.
Netanyahu's first comments onIsrael's plan for Gaza after the
war came in an interview on ABC.
However, he did not elaborateon the kind of security
mechanism such a plan wouldinvolve.
So we reached out to Israeliambassador Alon Pinkas he served
(01:45):
Israel's most senior members ofgovernment over the decades and
we asked Pinkas what are thepossibilities in Gaza for Israel
?
He is full of reflection andabsolutely worth a listen.
All right, alon Pinkas servedas chief of staff to Shlomo Ben
(02:06):
Ami and David Levy, theministers of foreign affairs in
Israel.
He was a foreign policy advisorfor Ehud Barak and political
advisor to Shimon Peres, and hewas also consul general of
Israel to New York City.
Alon, it's really an honor tobe able to interview you.
How are you today?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (02:21):
It's my pleasure, dana, good to be
with you.
How am I?
All things considered, I'm okay, but emphasize all things
considered, not that I'm okay.
Dana Lewis (02:32):
Have you ever seen and the answer should be
two-sided have you ever seen theanger inside of Israel that we
are experiencing now, afterOctober the 7th, and the desire
to do away with a barbaric enemythat will attack again, no
doubt.
And have you also on the otherside of the coin, if I can ask
(02:56):
you both questions, have youever seen Arab anger, not only
in the Middle East, but reallyacross capitals all across
Europe and even in North Americaright now?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (03:08):
No , I mean the short answer, the
snap answer is no, I have not.
And now to somewhat elaborateon that Look, 2023 is arguably
the worst year in Israel'shistory.
Then came October 7th, and thatbecame the worst day in
(03:31):
Israel's history.
Now the year 2023 began with MrNetanyahu's constitutional coup
and the pushback from a largeswath of the population,
hundreds of thousands every week, demonstrating against him.
It was divisive, it was toxic,it was politically explosive.
(03:52):
And then came October 7th.
That day became a point ofinflection, if you will, in
terms of the anger.
But I have to say, dana, thisanger, it has two targets.
One is Hamas, which wascontained in your question, and
(04:16):
it's not just anger, it's thisresolve and determination to hit
them as hard as possible and toget rid of them, eliminate,
eradicate, obliterate all thesesynonyms and euphemisms.
But there's also a brewing Imean, it's right up there, but a
brewing that's not yet manifestin the streets of anger,
(04:39):
disappointment, distrust,mistrust with Mr Netanyahu.
So you take those two combinedto answer your questions
specifically and the answer isno.
I have not seen these levels ofanger, frustration, devastation
and even humiliation that we'reexperiencing.
Dana Lewis (05:02):
Before we move to the Palestinian anger in the
Arab street.
If I can coin it that way, whois running the show in Israel in
terms of government?
Because the public feels thatNetanyahu betrayed them on a
number of fronts, but, more thananything, he doesn't have
(05:23):
intelligence failure ever inhistory, the history of Israel.
So then you have a war cabinet.
Is Netanyahu just speaking asthe Prime Minister, or is he
still driving the show?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (05:38):
Well , constitutionally and
politically speaking, he runsthe show without the trust,
without the respect, without theconfidence of the public or,
for that matter, the military.
His government is completelyand comprehensively
dysfunctional, inept andincompetent, but that's beside
the point.
In terms of managing the war,the war cabinet,
(06:03):
constitutionally, in terms ofhis authority, he runs the show,
but politically he doesn'treally, because the war cabinet
consists of himself, defenseMinister Yof Galant, who is also
going to be held responsibleeminently for this failure, the
real intelligence failure but isalso not on good terms with Mr
(06:26):
Netanyahu who, if our viewersand listeners recall, who fired
him in March for planning to goout publicly on the 26th of
March and warn that theconstitutional sorry coup that I
just referred to wasencroaching and impinging on
(06:49):
military preparedness andreadiness.
Okay, then there are twogentlemen who joined the war
cabinet from an opposition party.
One is Benny Gant, a formerDefense Minister and a former
IDF Chief of Staff, and theother is Gadi, lieutenant
General Reserve, gadi Aizenkot,who's also a former IDF Chief of
Staff.
(07:10):
So between the three of them,defense Minister Galant, benny
Gant and Gadi Aizenkot, mrNetanyahu is essentially
outnumbered in the cabinet.
But over this overarching,overriding and above it all
stands, a unique, almostunprecedented American
(07:33):
involvement in the management ofthe war.
Not the tactical, although theyhave had their say and had
their opinions and reservationsabout some tactical plans, but
in terms of the operational, notyet, not even the strategic,
just the operational conduct ofthe war.
(07:54):
There are the Americans, thankyou.
Russia invaded Ukraine inFebruary of 2022.
You haven't seen the AmericanSecretary of State, anthony
Blinken, who is Secretary ofState then, of course, and is
Secretary of State now.
You haven't seen him sit downthree times in an Israeli war,
(08:18):
I'm sorry, in a Ukrainian warcabinet.
He has sat three times in anIsraeli war cabinet.
The US dispatched a three-starLieutenant General, marine
General General Glyn, to Israel10 days ago, and so the
Americans have a major say onhow this is being run.
(08:40):
And so back to your question.
Dana Lewis (08:44):
After all this elaboration and I digressed
somewhat- no, it's reallyimportant that it is
unprecedented Americaninvolvement in the running of
the government of Israel, atleast when it comes to the war
in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (08:58):
Yeah , and of course I haven't
pointed to it.
There is this massive Americanforce building in the Eastern
Mediterranean two carrier strikegroups, the Gerald Ford and the
Dwight Eisenhower.
There is the 26th MarineExpeditionary Force which is
stationed not far.
(09:19):
That's 2,000 Marines.
And just yesterday CENTCOM, theUS Central Command, announced
that an Ohio-class nuclearsubmarine, the USS Florida, is
also moving into theMediterranean.
Now what all this forcestructure means, we can
deliberate forever.
What it got, how it pertains toyour question, dana, is that Mr
(09:44):
Netanyahu does not call theshots, as you would expect a
prime minister to call the shotsat a time like this.
Dana Lewis (09:52):
OK, that's key when we go to the other question of
the anger on the Arab Street andin European capitals and
elsewhere, because Netanyahu ispretty predictable in his
ability to ignore a lot of that.
But the US is much moresensitive to that growing
(10:13):
backlash and public opinion thatthe war has already gone too
far.
I mean, as we speak, severalmajor United Nations bodies and
I know what Israel thinks ofUnited Nations bodies but they
carry weight in terms of humanrights.
On Monday they've called aUnited Call for Humanitarian
(10:33):
Seize Fire in Gaza.
You have 18 signatories, unHigh Commission of Human Rights,
world Health Organization, unChief.
The entire population isbesieged and under attack,
quote-unquote, denied access toessentials for survival, bombed
in their homes.
It goes on and at the end thestatement says 30 days, enough
is enough.
This must stop now.
(10:54):
And that puts pressure, I thinkadded pressure on the US.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (10:59):
Yeah , it does.
It does and it's becomingevident, and it became evident,
in fact, in Secretary of StateBlinken's most recent visit here
three days ago, two and a halfdays ago, friday, in which he,
in closed doors and in quiet,discreet meetings, expressed US
(11:22):
concerns.
Now the US concerns pertain totwo or three different issues.
Here.
The US is not necessarily happywith the Israeli concept that
is being enunciated publicly,that this is going to be a
prolonged conflict, that this isgoing to take many weeks,
indeed even months.
(11:43):
As the defense minister of thatvery same talent that we
referred to earlier, the US isunhappy with that because that
bogs the US back into this.
Moving to another level, thelonger it takes, the more likely
, or the dynamics of anescalation can be set in motion,
which is why partially why theUS sends such a huge naval force
(12:09):
to the Eastern Mediterranean.
So escalation, so-calledhorizontal escalation, meaning
that the conflict in Gaza couldmove, or spread, as the
Americans like to term this,into Lebanon, which leads to the
third and most upper level ofAmerican not frustration yet,
(12:29):
but I would call it impatienceWith Israel that whatever the
military operation in Gaza isand however justified it is and
it is justified and howeversupportive the US is of that
operation and it is verysupportive the US is basically
the Americans are basicallysaying Biden administration is
saying to Israel okay, we gotyou back, you're good, do
(12:55):
whatever is necessary, do itquickly.
But give us a simple broad brushdescription of what next the
day after.
What are the scenarios?
Who's going to govern Gaza?
Let's assume you destroy Hamasmilitarily and you incapacitate
it politically to the point thatthey cannot govern Gaza.
(13:16):
We're fine.
We America, we're fine withthat.
But give us a glimpse of whatyou're thinking about the day
after.
Which brings me to your pointabout the UN.
Israel is always quick in manycases, you know understandably,
to dismiss the UN for its youknow bias and hypocrisy and
(13:42):
bureaucratic slow moving.
Right, right, and it's all true,and it's all true.
But If there is going to be along-term, durable possible I'm
not saying it's necessarilygonna happen solution in the
Gaza Strip post-Tramas which iswhat it says is a must which the
(14:06):
US, at least publicly, tends toagree.
Secretary of State Lincoln saidon several occasions in the
last 10 days, in the last week,that reversion to the status quo
on days is unacceptable,meaning that Hamas maintains
residual political power andessentially control Gaza.
That's unacceptable.
Okay, in any scenario, the UNis gonna have to play a role.
(14:29):
So if I were Israel, if I werein a decision-making position or
advising a decision-makinggroup or person, I would say be
careful with the UN, you know besmart.
Dana Lewis (14:50):
They may have to play a key role in the day after
Hamas, if there is a day afterHamas.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (14:57):
Well , okay, that's a fair question,
dana.
I mean, if there is a day afterthere could conceivably not be
a day after and we could, youknow this is gonna be, you know,
a horrific and tragic renditionof a groundhog day, that this
is gonna go on and on and on andevery day is gonna look like
the next one, and then it'sgonna stop, and the year from
(15:18):
now we're gonna have arecurrence of the same thing.
But, but if there is a dayafter Hamas and let's do this by
I'll do it shortly, succinctlylet's do it by elimination daily
.
Okay, who cannot rule Gaza?
Well, hamas clearly cannot ruleGaza.
Israel clearly cannot rule Gazabecause Israel does not want to
(15:40):
capture or occupy or stay inthe Gaza Strip for years.
The Palestinian Authority,which Secretary of State Lincoln
yesterday, in his meeting withMahmoud Abbas, the president of
the Palestinian Authority,indicated that he wants the
Palestinian Authority to play agreater role.
(16:00):
The Palestinian Authority couldplay a greater role, but
certainly not on, you know,driving into Gaza on Israeli
tanks or bayonets.
The US certainly doesn't wantto rule Gaza because A the US
doesn't want to be back downwith Ukraine and NATO and Russia
and the long-term.
Dana Lewis (16:19):
And the last thing the US wants is having US
soldiers turn up dead in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Dip (16:23):
Exactly .
And so you look left and youlook right and you're saying,
okay, so if not Israel, if notthe Palestinian Authority, if
not the US, if not Hamas,obviously, and if not Egypt,
which I didn't mention, thatdoesn't want anything to do with
2.2 million destitute,impoverished and frustrated
people who then, well then, youreach the almost bi-elimination,
(16:47):
the inevitable conclusion thatthis needs to be an
international force, atrusteeship, if you want, what
was called in Kosovo or in EastTimor, a neo-trusteeship, as
opposed to the old trusteeshipof the colonialization era.
Dana Lewis (17:07):
Do you think, Ambassador Pinkes, do you think
that's where we're heading?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (17:12):
Let me put it this way I think that
anything else that has beentried failed.
So if you come up they know youor anyone who's watching us with
37 reasons why a trusteeshipwon't work, I automatically and
in advance agree with you.
But I know for a fact whathasn't worked until now, which
(17:34):
is why an international force ora trusteeship can, it will,
could be the only plausible,durable solution.
Now let me add one thing tothis In the American view and
I'm not saying they're right orwrong and I'm not saying they
have a coherent, comprehensiveplan this is probably somewhat
half-baked at this point, butwhat happens in Gaza could and
(17:57):
should be, in the American eyesthis is not me speaking extended
to the West Bank, meaning thatout of this horrific, tragic,
devastating debacle of SeptemberI'm sorry, of October 7th,
there's a silver lining kind ofyou know, blurry silver lining
(18:18):
of an international force thatwould be stationed in Gaza as a
BOT, build, operate, transfer ofGovernability, but that will be
extended to the West Bank.
And here we go.
We're back to the two-statemodel as a political option.
Now, I know, let me just addone sentence to be politically
(18:39):
correct with my own countrymen.
This is not popular right now,this is not palatable.
Right now, this is not saleable, marketable whatever right now.
Think six, 10, 12 months ahead.
This is the only thing thatcould work.
Only thing that could work andI'm not saying it's not without
(19:03):
flaws and deficiencies, but it'sthe only thing.
Dana Lewis (19:06):
And, by the way, some of the elements of that
might include both states, forinstance, so it wouldn't be seen
as an outside force.
It would have to be somethingthat Palestinians could accept.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (19:18):
Mia Culpa, I should have said that
and you helped me out on this.
This has, it's a prerequisite,it's a must have an Arab
component in it so it becomeslegitimate for both the
Palestinians to accept andsomewhat legitimate for the
Russians and the Chinese.
(19:38):
So it's not to strike it downwith a veto vote at the UN
Security Council.
So, yes, yes, it's gonna haveto include preferably Saudi
Arabia, also the UAE and whoeverelse chooses to join the effort
as a package deal to thePalestinians.
We the Arabs support this.
(20:00):
We the Arabs will help fundthis.
We the Arabs will back thisinternational effort that will
be made of UN and NATO, or Asianor it doesn't matter.
I don't wanna speculate intothe composition of this force,
but this has to be done.
Dana Lewis (20:22):
The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas
and Fatah are unlikely.
Well, first of all, theywouldn't want Israel to pave the
road for them to go back intoGaza, because they would be seen
as an Israeli proxy force.
That's about the last thingthat they would want for any
credibility in Gaza.
(20:43):
So, but even if Abbas waswilling to step up and say, okay
, israel out, we'll go back inand run Gaza.
I mean, it was tragic in 2006,2007,.
Right, I mean they just werethought to be corrupt in and out
and there was inter-fightinglong before the 2007 takeover by
(21:06):
Hamas.
I mean there was streetfighting in neighborhoods and
different clans.
I mean Gaza just melted down.
So I don't know how the PA, asweak as they are now, anybody
would push them in there andthink that they would be a
credible authority.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (21:23):
I think it's a, the proposal, the
idea, the notion that the PAPalestinian Authority can be
pushed into Gaza as a dead-ondelivery idea.
You're absolutely right in howyou describe this in 2000, going
back to 2006 and 2007, whenthere was an election in Gaza in
(21:46):
2006 and Hamas won and by 2007,they basically executed half of
the PLO, or the PalestinianAuthority.
Dana Lewis (21:55):
So much for Palestinian unity, by the way,
because people with the numbersincluding the current generation
of Palestinians thinks they'reall brothers in arms, but in
fact they were killing eachother and throwing each other
off rooftops Forking each otherwith passion.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (22:09):
And you know, look, I have no
illusions about the Palestinians.
I'm not one of those peacenikswho believes that you know, if
you build it, they will come.
It's because the old baseballmovie cliche that they will have
.
Dana Lewis (22:23):
Did you ever like?
I mean during that time sorryagain I've jumped in, but did
you ever, during that time ofRabin, for instance, nobody was
singing Kumbaya and saying youknow, we're going to happily
ever after?
I mean, it was thought to bethe lesser of many evils to do a
(22:43):
piece.
Tell me if I'm wrong.
I don't mean to answer thequestion that I'm asking you,
but it was thought to be thelesser of many evils for the
Israeli public to get the hellout of the West Bank and get out
of Gaza and try a two-statesolution.
And Rabin said if we don't doit now, we're going to be facing
something like what you'refacing right now.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (23:04):
Well , yeah, rabin said that and that
was at the core of the OsloAccords.
Logic, but fast forward sevenyears from Oslo to the year
2000,.
And that there was the CampDavid Summit of July 2000 that
Clinton then President BillClinton hosted with Prime
(23:26):
Minister Eudbach and Arafat, andthat was Israel's most
comprehensive.
It fell short, obviously, andthere's a lot of criticism that
Israel wasn't 100% behind this.
Okay, were you there?
No, I wasn't there because Iwas Chief of Staff of the
Foreign Minister, who resignedin protest a week before.
(23:49):
But I was there for thepreparation and, more
importantly, I was there for thenegotiations, for the
subsequent negotiations inOctober, november and December
of 2000 with the new ForeignMinister at the time, shlomo
Benami.
Professor Shlomo Benami.
Dana Lewis (24:07):
Now, do you think some of that's deliverable now?
Like, if you look at, okay,arafat couldn't pull the trigger
, I mean he couldn't sign on.
But if you look at it now, landswap, access to Jerusalem, holy
sites, all of them, I mean theywent through everything.
There wasn't a right of returnfor Palestinian refugees but
there was compensation.
I mean a lot of the issues wereresolved.
Even now, with all thesettlement building which has
(24:27):
gone.
You know it's the turbo modeunder Netanyahu and Sharon.
But even with that, if you doland swap, you know 13% of the
West Bank or whatever, a lot ofthe elements are still there,
right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (24:42):
The elements are there, but let's
divide this into two.
First, you know we're still in.
You know we're a month afterthat devastation, that the
buckle of October 7th.
So if you tell Israelis now aPalestinian state, they
immediately, by the way, verynaturally, very, very
(25:03):
expectantly, they're saying 7thof October is now going to
happen in 15 points along theWest Bank, which is by far
closer to Israel, more open toIsrael's major cities.
You're going to see recurrencesof 7th of October.
Dana Lewis (25:21):
That's not unfounded paranoia anymore.
That's not any logical personwould say it didn't work in Gaza
.
They couldn't be quiet in Gaza.
We're going to give them theWest Bank and put them even
closer to the heart of Israeland expect that they're not
going to arm with rockets andthat they're not going to attack
us in three years or five yearsor whatever it's going to be
100% and you know people aregoing back to the well, you just
(25:44):
need one terrorist with aanti-aircraft shoulder missile
to shoot down a United Airlines787 landing in Israel, because
it's a kilometer and a half,it's a mile.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Dipl (26:02):
That's one level.
So selling the two-statesolution based on those
parameters right now is dead ondelivery, as I said before.
But the international presence,the trustee ship, if you will,
the Neo trustee ship, not torehash those complicated terms
(26:26):
that could work a year from now,and because it's based on a
very simple, horrible butnonetheless a simple equation
data.
It goes like this thePalestinians can't govern and
Israel can't stay.
The Palestinians are a failedstate in the making, yet Israel
does not want to annex thatgovernment.
(26:48):
Now, for that, the West Bank.
For that to happen and I'mmoving fast forward into
uncharted waters here for thatto happen, you need a new
government in Israel andpossibly, conceivably, hopefully
, a new leadership with thePalestinians.
(27:09):
To tell you that this is asimple thing, no, so this
incident, this crisis, thisongoing raging war provided us
with a solid anchor, a base.
Let's start with Gaza.
It was always.
What are we going to do withGaza, even if we get along with
(27:29):
the Palestinians in the WestBank?
Well, there's still Gaza.
So that's a no.
Let's now reverse this.
Let's start with Gaza, withthis international force Now I'm
not an advocate for this Justgoing by elimination, everything
else fails, everything elsefails.
I just don't see any otherfeasible or viable formula that
(27:55):
can work.
Dana Lewis (27:57):
Wouldn't it be ironic if Hamas, who blew up
bombs and televives during theOslo Accords, who, at every
opportunity, with Iran's backing, has tried to destroy any
chance of a workable two-statesolution or a real peace plan?
(28:18):
Wouldn't it be ironic ifthey're attacked on October the
7th, actually led to somethinglong-term renewed effort to
bring about peace between thetwo peoples?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (28:30):
Yeah , you're exactly right.
I mean, that's the silverlining that I may be too hasty
in seeing, but you can evenbroaden the lens here, the
perspective here.
Hamas wanted to undermine anytype of political arrangement
not that there was any politicalnegotiation process in the last
(28:53):
decade the last, in fact, wasJohn Kerry, a Secretary of State
under Obama in 2014.
But Hamas wanted to foil anytype of understanding, undermine
an Israeli Saudi normalizationprocess, and out of this could
emerge two new realities, as you, I think, precisely and
(29:17):
appreciably pointed to.
One is that the two-statesolution a year from now again a
year from now is back on thetable, back on the agenda, as
the only workable, feasiblesolution.
And to the Saudi Arabia theSaudis and again, I don't
pretend to go into MBS Muhammadbin Salman's head or the Saudi
(29:42):
intelligence services mindset,I'm not an expert on that but if
they saw September again, Ikeep on saying September if they
saw October 7th, they shouldsee this as a pretentious event
that could affect them.
(30:03):
They saw the Iranianinvolvement, not direct.
Not direct in terms of theplanning or the tactical
decision making, but in terms ofthe encouragement, the
mentorship and the inspiration.
They see what the Saudis aredoing with the Houthis in Yemen.
They see what the Saudis aredoing with the Iranians are
doing with the Houthis in Yemen,but they see what the Iranians
(30:25):
are doing with Hezbollah inLebanon.
To bring it all together, thisterrible, devastating event of
October 7th could prove to betheir undoing in terms of the
future landscape of the MiddleEast.
So, both the two states andIsraeli normalization I don't
(30:47):
want to sound too normalizationwith Saudi Arabia I don't want
to sound too optimistic.
I'm not too optimistic.
All I'm saying is that thiscould be a and I said it before
that this is an inflection pointthat could also prove to be
positive, if I can use that wordhere.
Dana Lewis (31:05):
Quick question on widening war.
If you follow your thoughts onIran and what role they may have
played with Hamas, isn't italso natural that they would, at
a certain point of desperation,probably want to torpedo any
(31:26):
long term plan in Gaza bypushing the launch button with
the Hezbollah in the north?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (31:32):
Yeah , okay.
So as for the escalation, youknow there are two types of
escalation here.
There is deliberate escalation,which the Iranians can generate
or foments, but I think they'rebeing at this point.
They're being deterred not byIsrael but by the USS Gerald
Ford and the USS DwightEisenhower.
(31:55):
I think that the Iraniansunderstand that this is a bridge
too far if they escalate this,but but and this is a major but
there is an inadvertentescalation or miscalculation
that leads a series of localevents that leads to a rolling
(32:16):
escalation, and, and you know,and then someone's going to
write a book entitled at theMarch of Folly and Folly, and,
and, and we're all going to lookback and see how did we not see
the signs?
Well, the signs are there andthe miscalculation in Lebanon is
is staring us in the eye.
I don't know that the Iraniansare willing to pay the price,
(32:40):
because I think both PresidentBiden and Secretary of State
Blinken and Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin and and Director
of the CIA Burns have all warnedthem publicly and quietly,
directly or throughintermediaries.
I don't think Iran would wantto risk that at this point.
(33:01):
I may be wrong.
Dana Lewis (33:03):
Well, we, we might.
We hope that you're right.
We hope that you're right.
So Alon Pink is.
Mr Ambassador, it's great totalk to you, sir, and, for all
your perspective, I hope we cando it against sometime.
And I really do appreciate allyour time and thoughts and
reflection and you're one ofthose people that, as I said as
we were getting ready to do theinterview, I appreciate the fact
that you don't have the quick.
(33:25):
You know, you don't.
You don't speak in conclusiveterms because you understand
that there are so many untiedthreads here and it can go a lot
of different directions and allof them at once.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (33:36):
So thank you, dana.
Like I told you before westarted recording this, they
don't pay me anymore to come upwith one liners and conclusive
remarks, so so I succumb toreality, and I know that it's
more complex.
Dana Lewis (33:51):
They need people like you telling them that that
range and multi layered, I'msure they, I'm sure they get it,
but sometimes they need to bereminded of it, right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (33:59):
Well , that's what I'm doing here
with you, thank you sir.
Thank you, Dana.
Dana Lewis (34:03):
And that's our backstory.
On Israel's war in Gaza, formerUN ambassador and US national
security advisor, john Boltonwrites quote Hamas just didn't
wake up one day and decide byitself to attack Israel.
Along with Hezbollah, yemen'sHouthi rebels, iraqi Shia
militia and many others, hamasis a beneficiary of Iranian
(34:26):
weapons, training and finance.
Its sneak attack has to be seenas part of Tehran's larger
strategy.
He goes on to say that, takenby surprise, jerusalem is still
struggling to graspcomprehensively Iran's plan.
Tehran's surrogates areconcealing their hand, but
(34:46):
Hezbollah leader HasranNasrallah's recent speech shows
their menace and resolve tobreak the will of Israel and its
supporters by threatening widerregional war.
And that's where we are folkson the doorstep of something
more destabilizing, worse than awar in Gaza.
And that's just the way Iranand Russia, and possibly China,
(35:11):
would like it.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Please share back story andI'll talk to you again soon.
Well, there'll be no ceasefire, general
ceasefire, in Gaza without therelease of our hostages.
As far as tactical littlepauses an hour here, an hour
there, we've had them before.
I suppose we'll check thecircumstances in order to enable
goods, humanitarian goods, tocome in or our hostages,
individual hostages, to leave.
(00:20):
But I don't think there's goingto be a general ceasefire.
It's not that I don't think.
I think it will hamper the wareffort.
It'll hamper our effort to getour hostages out, because the
only thing that works on thesecriminals in Hamas is the
military pressure that we'reexerting.
Dana Lewis (00:41):
Hi everyone and welcome to another edition of
Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
As we speak, the Israeli armyhas surrounded Gaza City.
1,400 Israelis were slain byHamas October the 7th.
Since then, hamas has held 242people hostages Israelis for
over a month, and God knows whatkind of terrible conditions.
(01:02):
These are the elderly, childrenand people who should not be
held and need to be released.
Israel's attempt to removeHamas from power in Gaza has
resulted in as many as 10,000deaths, say aid agencies.
Many of those are also children.
How does this end?
Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu has said that Israel
(01:23):
has overall securityresponsibility for the Gaza
Strip and will have it for anindefinite period.
Netanyahu's first comments onIsrael's plan for Gaza after the
war came in an interview on ABC.
However, he did not elaborateon the kind of security
mechanism such a plan wouldinvolve.
So we reached out to Israeliambassador Alon Pinkas he served
(01:45):
Israel's most senior members ofgovernment over the decades and
we asked Pinkas what are thepossibilities in Gaza for Israel
?
He is full of reflection andabsolutely worth a listen.
All right, alon Pinkas servedas chief of staff to Shlomo Ben
(02:06):
Ami and David Levy, theministers of foreign affairs in
Israel.
He was a foreign policy advisorfor Ehud Barak and political
advisor to Shimon Peres, and hewas also consul general of
Israel to New York City.
Alon, it's really an honor tobe able to interview you.
How are you today?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (02:21):
It's my pleasure, dana, good to be
with you.
How am I?
All things considered, I'm okay, but emphasize all things
considered, not that I'm okay.
Dana Lewis (02:32):
Have you ever seen and the answer should be
two-sided have you ever seen theanger inside of Israel that we
are experiencing now, afterOctober the 7th, and the desire
to do away with a barbaric enemythat will attack again, no
doubt.
And have you also on the otherside of the coin, if I can ask
(02:56):
you both questions, have youever seen Arab anger, not only
in the Middle East, but reallyacross capitals all across
Europe and even in North Americaright now?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (03:08):
No , I mean the short answer, the
snap answer is no, I have not.
And now to somewhat elaborateon that Look, 2023 is arguably
the worst year in Israel'shistory.
Then came October 7th, and thatbecame the worst day in
(03:31):
Israel's history.
Now the year 2023 began with MrNetanyahu's constitutional coup
and the pushback from a largeswath of the population,
hundreds of thousands every week, demonstrating against him.
It was divisive, it was toxic,it was politically explosive.
(03:52):
And then came October 7th.
That day became a point ofinflection, if you will, in
terms of the anger.
But I have to say, dana, thisanger, it has two targets.
One is Hamas, which wascontained in your question, and
(04:16):
it's not just anger, it's thisresolve and determination to hit
them as hard as possible and toget rid of them, eliminate,
eradicate, obliterate all thesesynonyms and euphemisms.
But there's also a brewing Imean, it's right up there, but a
brewing that's not yet manifestin the streets of anger,
(04:39):
disappointment, distrust,mistrust with Mr Netanyahu.
So you take those two combinedto answer your questions
specifically and the answer isno.
I have not seen these levels ofanger, frustration, devastation
and even humiliation that we'reexperiencing.
Dana Lewis (05:02):
Before we move to the Palestinian anger in the
Arab street.
If I can coin it that way, whois running the show in Israel in
terms of government?
Because the public feels thatNetanyahu betrayed them on a
number of fronts, but, more thananything, he doesn't have
(05:23):
intelligence failure ever inhistory, the history of Israel.
So then you have a war cabinet.
Is Netanyahu just speaking asthe Prime Minister, or is he
still driving the show?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (05:38):
Well , constitutionally and
politically speaking, he runsthe show without the trust,
without the respect, without theconfidence of the public or,
for that matter, the military.
His government is completelyand comprehensively
dysfunctional, inept andincompetent, but that's beside
the point.
In terms of managing the war,the war cabinet,
(06:03):
constitutionally, in terms ofhis authority, he runs the show,
but politically he doesn'treally, because the war cabinet
consists of himself, defenseMinister Yof Galant, who is also
going to be held responsibleeminently for this failure, the
real intelligence failure but isalso not on good terms with Mr
(06:26):
Netanyahu who, if our viewersand listeners recall, who fired
him in March for planning to goout publicly on the 26th of
March and warn that theconstitutional sorry coup that I
just referred to wasencroaching and impinging on
(06:49):
military preparedness andreadiness.
Okay, then there are twogentlemen who joined the war
cabinet from an opposition party.
One is Benny Gant, a formerDefense Minister and a former
IDF Chief of Staff, and theother is Gadi, lieutenant
General Reserve, gadi Aizenkot,who's also a former IDF Chief of
Staff.
(07:10):
So between the three of them,defense Minister Galant, benny
Gant and Gadi Aizenkot, mrNetanyahu is essentially
outnumbered in the cabinet.
But over this overarching,overriding and above it all
stands, a unique, almostunprecedented American
(07:33):
involvement in the management ofthe war.
Not the tactical, although theyhave had their say and had
their opinions and reservationsabout some tactical plans, but
in terms of the operational, notyet, not even the strategic,
just the operational conduct ofthe war.
(07:54):
There are the Americans, thankyou.
Russia invaded Ukraine inFebruary of 2022.
You haven't seen the AmericanSecretary of State, anthony
Blinken, who is Secretary ofState then, of course, and is
Secretary of State now.
You haven't seen him sit downthree times in an Israeli war,
(08:18):
I'm sorry, in a Ukrainian warcabinet.
He has sat three times in anIsraeli war cabinet.
The US dispatched a three-starLieutenant General, marine
General General Glyn, to Israel10 days ago, and so the
Americans have a major say onhow this is being run.
(08:40):
And so back to your question.
Dana Lewis (08:44):
After all this elaboration and I digressed
somewhat- no, it's reallyimportant that it is
unprecedented Americaninvolvement in the running of
the government of Israel, atleast when it comes to the war
in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (08:58):
Yeah , and of course I haven't
pointed to it.
There is this massive Americanforce building in the Eastern
Mediterranean two carrier strikegroups, the Gerald Ford and the
Dwight Eisenhower.
There is the 26th MarineExpeditionary Force which is
stationed not far.
(09:19):
That's 2,000 Marines.
And just yesterday CENTCOM, theUS Central Command, announced
that an Ohio-class nuclearsubmarine, the USS Florida, is
also moving into theMediterranean.
Now what all this forcestructure means, we can
deliberate forever.
What it got, how it pertains toyour question, dana, is that Mr
(09:44):
Netanyahu does not call theshots, as you would expect a
prime minister to call the shotsat a time like this.
Dana Lewis (09:52):
OK, that's key when we go to the other question of
the anger on the Arab Street andin European capitals and
elsewhere, because Netanyahu ispretty predictable in his
ability to ignore a lot of that.
But the US is much moresensitive to that growing
(10:13):
backlash and public opinion thatthe war has already gone too
far.
I mean, as we speak, severalmajor United Nations bodies and
I know what Israel thinks ofUnited Nations bodies but they
carry weight in terms of humanrights.
On Monday they've called aUnited Call for Humanitarian
(10:33):
Seize Fire in Gaza.
You have 18 signatories, unHigh Commission of Human Rights,
world Health Organization, unChief.
The entire population isbesieged and under attack,
quote-unquote, denied access toessentials for survival, bombed
in their homes.
It goes on and at the end thestatement says 30 days, enough
is enough.
This must stop now.
(10:54):
And that puts pressure, I thinkadded pressure on the US.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (10:59):
Yeah , it does.
It does and it's becomingevident, and it became evident,
in fact, in Secretary of StateBlinken's most recent visit here
three days ago, two and a halfdays ago, friday, in which he,
in closed doors and in quiet,discreet meetings, expressed US
(11:22):
concerns.
Now the US concerns pertain totwo or three different issues.
Here.
The US is not necessarily happywith the Israeli concept that
is being enunciated publicly,that this is going to be a
prolonged conflict, that this isgoing to take many weeks,
indeed even months.
(11:43):
As the defense minister of thatvery same talent that we
referred to earlier, the US isunhappy with that because that
bogs the US back into this.
Moving to another level, thelonger it takes, the more likely
, or the dynamics of anescalation can be set in motion,
which is why partially why theUS sends such a huge naval force
(12:09):
to the Eastern Mediterranean.
So escalation, so-calledhorizontal escalation, meaning
that the conflict in Gaza couldmove, or spread, as the
Americans like to term this,into Lebanon, which leads to the
third and most upper level ofAmerican not frustration yet,
(12:29):
but I would call it impatienceWith Israel that whatever the
military operation in Gaza isand however justified it is and
it is justified and howeversupportive the US is of that
operation and it is verysupportive the US is basically
the Americans are basicallysaying Biden administration is
saying to Israel okay, we gotyou back, you're good, do
(12:55):
whatever is necessary, do itquickly.
But give us a simple broad brushdescription of what next the
day after.
What are the scenarios?
Who's going to govern Gaza?
Let's assume you destroy Hamasmilitarily and you incapacitate
it politically to the point thatthey cannot govern Gaza.
(13:16):
We're fine.
We America, we're fine withthat.
But give us a glimpse of whatyou're thinking about the day
after.
Which brings me to your pointabout the UN.
Israel is always quick in manycases, you know understandably,
to dismiss the UN for its youknow bias and hypocrisy and
(13:42):
bureaucratic slow moving.
Right, right, and it's all true,and it's all true.
But If there is going to be along-term, durable possible I'm
not saying it's necessarilygonna happen solution in the
Gaza Strip post-Tramas which iswhat it says is a must which the
(14:06):
US, at least publicly, tends toagree.
Secretary of State Lincoln saidon several occasions in the
last 10 days, in the last week,that reversion to the status quo
on days is unacceptable,meaning that Hamas maintains
residual political power andessentially control Gaza.
That's unacceptable.
Okay, in any scenario, the UNis gonna have to play a role.
(14:29):
So if I were Israel, if I werein a decision-making position or
advising a decision-makinggroup or person, I would say be
careful with the UN, you know besmart.
Dana Lewis (14:50):
They may have to play a key role in the day after
Hamas, if there is a day afterHamas.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (14:57):
Well , okay, that's a fair question,
dana.
I mean, if there is a day afterthere could conceivably not be
a day after and we could, youknow this is gonna be, you know,
a horrific and tragic renditionof a groundhog day, that this
is gonna go on and on and on andevery day is gonna look like
the next one, and then it'sgonna stop, and the year from
(15:18):
now we're gonna have arecurrence of the same thing.
But, but if there is a dayafter Hamas and let's do this by
I'll do it shortly, succinctlylet's do it by elimination daily
.
Okay, who cannot rule Gaza?
Well, hamas clearly cannot ruleGaza.
Israel clearly cannot rule Gazabecause Israel does not want to
(15:40):
capture or occupy or stay inthe Gaza Strip for years.
The Palestinian Authority,which Secretary of State Lincoln
yesterday, in his meeting withMahmoud Abbas, the president of
the Palestinian Authority,indicated that he wants the
Palestinian Authority to play agreater role.
(16:00):
The Palestinian Authority couldplay a greater role, but
certainly not on, you know,driving into Gaza on Israeli
tanks or bayonets.
The US certainly doesn't wantto rule Gaza because A the US
doesn't want to be back downwith Ukraine and NATO and Russia
and the long-term.
Dana Lewis (16:19):
And the last thing the US wants is having US
soldiers turn up dead in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Dip (16:23):
Exactly .
And so you look left and youlook right and you're saying,
okay, so if not Israel, if notthe Palestinian Authority, if
not the US, if not Hamas,obviously, and if not Egypt,
which I didn't mention, thatdoesn't want anything to do with
2.2 million destitute,impoverished and frustrated
people who then, well then, youreach the almost bi-elimination,
(16:47):
the inevitable conclusion thatthis needs to be an
international force, atrusteeship, if you want, what
was called in Kosovo or in EastTimor, a neo-trusteeship, as
opposed to the old trusteeshipof the colonialization era.
Dana Lewis (17:07):
Do you think, Ambassador Pinkes, do you think
that's where we're heading?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (17:12):
Let me put it this way I think that
anything else that has beentried failed.
So if you come up they know youor anyone who's watching us with
37 reasons why a trusteeshipwon't work, I automatically and
in advance agree with you.
But I know for a fact whathasn't worked until now, which
(17:34):
is why an international force ora trusteeship can, it will,
could be the only plausible,durable solution.
Now let me add one thing tothis In the American view and
I'm not saying they're right orwrong and I'm not saying they
have a coherent, comprehensiveplan this is probably somewhat
half-baked at this point, butwhat happens in Gaza could and
(17:57):
should be, in the American eyesthis is not me speaking extended
to the West Bank, meaning thatout of this horrific, tragic,
devastating debacle of SeptemberI'm sorry, of October 7th,
there's a silver lining kind ofyou know, blurry silver lining
(18:18):
of an international force thatwould be stationed in Gaza as a
BOT, build, operate, transfer ofGovernability, but that will be
extended to the West Bank.
And here we go.
We're back to the two-statemodel as a political option.
Now, I know, let me just addone sentence to be politically
(18:39):
correct with my own countrymen.
This is not popular right now,this is not palatable.
Right now, this is not saleable, marketable whatever right now.
Think six, 10, 12 months ahead.
This is the only thing thatcould work.
Only thing that could work andI'm not saying it's not without
(19:03):
flaws and deficiencies, but it'sthe only thing.
Dana Lewis (19:06):
And, by the way, some of the elements of that
might include both states, forinstance, so it wouldn't be seen
as an outside force.
It would have to be somethingthat Palestinians could accept.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (19:18):
Mia Culpa, I should have said that
and you helped me out on this.
This has, it's a prerequisite,it's a must have an Arab
component in it so it becomeslegitimate for both the
Palestinians to accept andsomewhat legitimate for the
Russians and the Chinese.
(19:38):
So it's not to strike it downwith a veto vote at the UN
Security Council.
So, yes, yes, it's gonna haveto include preferably Saudi
Arabia, also the UAE and whoeverelse chooses to join the effort
as a package deal to thePalestinians.
We the Arabs support this.
(20:00):
We the Arabs will help fundthis.
We the Arabs will back thisinternational effort that will
be made of UN and NATO, or Asianor it doesn't matter.
I don't wanna speculate intothe composition of this force,
but this has to be done.
Dana Lewis (20:22):
The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas
and Fatah are unlikely.
Well, first of all, theywouldn't want Israel to pave the
road for them to go back intoGaza, because they would be seen
as an Israeli proxy force.
That's about the last thingthat they would want for any
credibility in Gaza.
(20:43):
So, but even if Abbas waswilling to step up and say, okay
, israel out, we'll go back inand run Gaza.
I mean, it was tragic in 2006,2007,.
Right, I mean they just werethought to be corrupt in and out
and there was inter-fightinglong before the 2007 takeover by
(21:06):
Hamas.
I mean there was streetfighting in neighborhoods and
different clans.
I mean Gaza just melted down.
So I don't know how the PA, asweak as they are now, anybody
would push them in there andthink that they would be a
credible authority.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (21:23):
I think it's a, the proposal, the
idea, the notion that the PAPalestinian Authority can be
pushed into Gaza as a dead-ondelivery idea.
You're absolutely right in howyou describe this in 2000, going
back to 2006 and 2007, whenthere was an election in Gaza in
(21:46):
2006 and Hamas won and by 2007,they basically executed half of
the PLO, or the PalestinianAuthority.
Dana Lewis (21:55):
So much for Palestinian unity, by the way,
because people with the numbersincluding the current generation
of Palestinians thinks they'reall brothers in arms, but in
fact they were killing eachother and throwing each other
off rooftops Forking each otherwith passion.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (22:09):
And you know, look, I have no
illusions about the Palestinians.
I'm not one of those peacenikswho believes that you know, if
you build it, they will come.
It's because the old baseballmovie cliche that they will have
.
Dana Lewis (22:23):
Did you ever like?
I mean during that time sorryagain I've jumped in, but did
you ever, during that time ofRabin, for instance, nobody was
singing Kumbaya and saying youknow, we're going to happily
ever after?
I mean, it was thought to bethe lesser of many evils to do a
(22:43):
piece.
Tell me if I'm wrong.
I don't mean to answer thequestion that I'm asking you,
but it was thought to be thelesser of many evils for the
Israeli public to get the hellout of the West Bank and get out
of Gaza and try a two-statesolution.
And Rabin said if we don't doit now, we're going to be facing
something like what you'refacing right now.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (23:04):
Well , yeah, rabin said that and that
was at the core of the OsloAccords.
Logic, but fast forward sevenyears from Oslo to the year
2000,.
And that there was the CampDavid Summit of July 2000 that
Clinton then President BillClinton hosted with Prime
(23:26):
Minister Eudbach and Arafat, andthat was Israel's most
comprehensive.
It fell short, obviously, andthere's a lot of criticism that
Israel wasn't 100% behind this.
Okay, were you there?
No, I wasn't there because Iwas Chief of Staff of the
Foreign Minister, who resignedin protest a week before.
(23:49):
But I was there for thepreparation and, more
importantly, I was there for thenegotiations, for the
subsequent negotiations inOctober, november and December
of 2000 with the new ForeignMinister at the time, shlomo
Benami.
Professor Shlomo Benami.
Dana Lewis (24:07):
Now, do you think some of that's deliverable now?
Like, if you look at, okay,arafat couldn't pull the trigger
, I mean he couldn't sign on.
But if you look at it now, landswap, access to Jerusalem, holy
sites, all of them, I mean theywent through everything.
There wasn't a right of returnfor Palestinian refugees but
there was compensation.
I mean a lot of the issues wereresolved.
Even now, with all thesettlement building which has
(24:27):
gone.
You know it's the turbo modeunder Netanyahu and Sharon.
But even with that, if you doland swap, you know 13% of the
West Bank or whatever, a lot ofthe elements are still there,
right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diploma (24:42):
The elements are there, but let's
divide this into two.
First, you know we're still in.
You know we're a month afterthat devastation, that the
buckle of October 7th.
So if you tell Israelis now aPalestinian state, they
immediately, by the way, verynaturally, very, very
(25:03):
expectantly, they're saying 7thof October is now going to
happen in 15 points along theWest Bank, which is by far
closer to Israel, more open toIsrael's major cities.
You're going to see recurrencesof 7th of October.
Dana Lewis (25:21):
That's not unfounded paranoia anymore.
That's not any logical personwould say it didn't work in Gaza
.
They couldn't be quiet in Gaza.
We're going to give them theWest Bank and put them even
closer to the heart of Israeland expect that they're not
going to arm with rockets andthat they're not going to attack
us in three years or five yearsor whatever it's going to be
100% and you know people aregoing back to the well, you just
(25:44):
need one terrorist with aanti-aircraft shoulder missile
to shoot down a United Airlines787 landing in Israel, because
it's a kilometer and a half,it's a mile.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Dipl (26:02):
That's one level.
So selling the two-statesolution based on those
parameters right now is dead ondelivery, as I said before.
But the international presence,the trustee ship, if you will,
the Neo trustee ship, not torehash those complicated terms
(26:26):
that could work a year from now,and because it's based on a
very simple, horrible butnonetheless a simple equation
data.
It goes like this thePalestinians can't govern and
Israel can't stay.
The Palestinians are a failedstate in the making, yet Israel
does not want to annex thatgovernment.
(26:48):
Now, for that, the West Bank.
For that to happen and I'mmoving fast forward into
uncharted waters here for thatto happen, you need a new
government in Israel andpossibly, conceivably, hopefully
, a new leadership with thePalestinians.
(27:09):
To tell you that this is asimple thing, no, so this
incident, this crisis, thisongoing raging war provided us
with a solid anchor, a base.
Let's start with Gaza.
It was always.
What are we going to do withGaza, even if we get along with
(27:29):
the Palestinians in the WestBank?
Well, there's still Gaza.
So that's a no.
Let's now reverse this.
Let's start with Gaza, withthis international force Now I'm
not an advocate for this Justgoing by elimination, everything
else fails, everything elsefails.
I just don't see any otherfeasible or viable formula that
(27:55):
can work.
Dana Lewis (27:57):
Wouldn't it be ironic if Hamas, who blew up
bombs and televives during theOslo Accords, who, at every
opportunity, with Iran's backing, has tried to destroy any
chance of a workable two-statesolution or a real peace plan?
(28:18):
Wouldn't it be ironic ifthey're attacked on October the
7th, actually led to somethinglong-term renewed effort to
bring about peace between thetwo peoples?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (28:30):
Yeah , you're exactly right.
I mean, that's the silverlining that I may be too hasty
in seeing, but you can evenbroaden the lens here, the
perspective here.
Hamas wanted to undermine anytype of political arrangement
not that there was any politicalnegotiation process in the last
(28:53):
decade the last, in fact, wasJohn Kerry, a Secretary of State
under Obama in 2014.
But Hamas wanted to foil anytype of understanding, undermine
an Israeli Saudi normalizationprocess, and out of this could
emerge two new realities, as you, I think, precisely and
(29:17):
appreciably pointed to.
One is that the two-statesolution a year from now again a
year from now is back on thetable, back on the agenda, as
the only workable, feasiblesolution.
And to the Saudi Arabia theSaudis and again, I don't
pretend to go into MBS Muhammadbin Salman's head or the Saudi
(29:42):
intelligence services mindset,I'm not an expert on that but if
they saw September again, Ikeep on saying September if they
saw October 7th, they shouldsee this as a pretentious event
that could affect them.
(30:03):
They saw the Iranianinvolvement, not direct.
Not direct in terms of theplanning or the tactical
decision making, but in terms ofthe encouragement, the
mentorship and the inspiration.
They see what the Saudis aredoing with the Houthis in Yemen.
They see what the Saudis aredoing with the Iranians are
doing with the Houthis in Yemen,but they see what the Iranians
(30:25):
are doing with Hezbollah inLebanon.
To bring it all together, thisterrible, devastating event of
October 7th could prove to betheir undoing in terms of the
future landscape of the MiddleEast.
So, both the two states andIsraeli normalization I don't
(30:47):
want to sound too normalizationwith Saudi Arabia I don't want
to sound too optimistic.
I'm not too optimistic.
All I'm saying is that thiscould be a and I said it before
that this is an inflection pointthat could also prove to be
positive, if I can use that wordhere.
Dana Lewis (31:05):
Quick question on widening war.
If you follow your thoughts onIran and what role they may have
played with Hamas, isn't italso natural that they would, at
a certain point of desperation,probably want to torpedo any
(31:26):
long term plan in Gaza bypushing the launch button with
the Hezbollah in the north?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (31:32):
Yeah , okay.
So as for the escalation, youknow there are two types of
escalation here.
There is deliberate escalation,which the Iranians can generate
or foments, but I think they'rebeing at this point.
They're being deterred not byIsrael but by the USS Gerald
Ford and the USS DwightEisenhower.
(31:55):
I think that the Iraniansunderstand that this is a bridge
too far if they escalate this,but but and this is a major but
there is an inadvertentescalation or miscalculation
that leads a series of localevents that leads to a rolling
(32:16):
escalation, and, and you know,and then someone's going to
write a book entitled at theMarch of Folly and Folly, and,
and, and we're all going to lookback and see how did we not see
the signs?
Well, the signs are there andthe miscalculation in Lebanon is
is staring us in the eye.
I don't know that the Iraniansare willing to pay the price,
(32:40):
because I think both PresidentBiden and Secretary of State
Blinken and Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin and and Director
of the CIA Burns have all warnedthem publicly and quietly,
directly or throughintermediaries.
I don't think Iran would wantto risk that at this point.
(33:01):
I may be wrong.
Dana Lewis (33:03):
Well, we, we might.
We hope that you're right.
We hope that you're right.
So Alon Pink is.
Mr Ambassador, it's great totalk to you, sir, and, for all
your perspective, I hope we cando it against sometime.
And I really do appreciate allyour time and thoughts and
reflection and you're one ofthose people that, as I said as
we were getting ready to do theinterview, I appreciate the fact
that you don't have the quick.
(33:25):
You know, you don't.
You don't speak in conclusiveterms because you understand
that there are so many untiedthreads here and it can go a lot
of different directions and allof them at once.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat (33:36):
So thank you, dana.
Like I told you before westarted recording this, they
don't pay me anymore to come upwith one liners and conclusive
remarks, so so I succumb toreality, and I know that it's
more complex.
Dana Lewis (33:51):
They need people like you telling them that that
range and multi layered, I'msure they, I'm sure they get it,
but sometimes they need to bereminded of it, right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplom (33:59):
Well , that's what I'm doing here
with you, thank you sir.
Thank you, Dana.
Dana Lewis (34:03):
And that's our backstory.
On Israel's war in Gaza, formerUN ambassador and US national
security advisor, john Boltonwrites quote Hamas just didn't
wake up one day and decide byitself to attack Israel.
Along with Hezbollah, yemen'sHouthi rebels, iraqi Shia
militia and many others, hamasis a beneficiary of Iranian
(34:26):
weapons, training and finance.
Its sneak attack has to be seenas part of Tehran's larger
strategy.
He goes on to say that, takenby surprise, jerusalem is still
struggling to graspcomprehensively Iran's plan.
Tehran's surrogates areconcealing their hand, but
(34:46):
Hezbollah leader HasranNasrallah's recent speech shows
their menace and resolve tobreak the will of Israel and its
supporters by threatening widerregional war.
And that's where we are folkson the doorstep of something
more destabilizing, worse than awar in Gaza.
And that's just the way Iranand Russia, and possibly China,
(35:11):
would like it.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Please share back story andI'll talk to you again soon.
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