December 8, 2023 • 37 mins
On This Back Story with Dana Lewis, Invaluable insights from IDF spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lerner. We examine the intricate strategies of the Israeli military, the weight of international pressure, and the efforts towards mitigating civilian casualties amidst the war with Hamas. A closer look at a battlefield that's as dense with people as it is with political complexity.
And Soufan's Senior research fellow, Colin Clark discusses Israel's duty to protect civilians, the crucial distinctions between Israeli and Hamas actions, and the urgent need for a political resolution, as well increased terror threats globally.
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Episode Transcript
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Dana Lewis / host (00:00):
Hi everyone and welcome to another edition
of Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (00:04):
But the images are devastating that
are coming out every day and Ithink there's growing concern,
at least in the Bidenadministration, to say nothing
of this kind of growing chorusinternationally, that the
Israelis very much risk losingthis war in a strategic sense,
even as they gain whatever minortactical victories they think
they're gaining by targetingHamas high value targets.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (00:27):
So the way Hamas has developed
over the last 16 years from aterrorist organization to a
terrorist government requires asignificant I would say
substantial paradigm change.
With the powers of government,they created a terrorist army
(00:47):
that came into Israel on the 7thof October.
With the powers of government,they were able to create a
terrorist industry that devise,develop and launch huge rocket
attacks against Israel, even totoday.
Dana Lewis / host (01:07):
On this Backstory.
Gaza, the war rages.
80 to 90 percent of thePalestinians who live there have
been displaced.
Hamas leadership is hidingunderground.
Aid is lacking.
Some of it has been taken byHamas instead of going to
desperate gasses.
137 Israelis are stillkidnapped in Gaza held by Hamas.
(01:28):
1200 Israelis were killedOctober the 7th when Hamas
terrorists attacked southernIsrael.
So far, as many as 17,000Palestinians have been killed.
How does it end?
No end is in sight.
No real political dialogue forwhat happens the day after war
in Gaza.
On this podcast, colin Clarkfrom the Sufans Center, but
(01:52):
first the IDF spokesman.
All right, idf spokesman.
Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lernerjoins me now from Israel.
Hello sir, how are you?
How are you doing?
Thank you, we're doing good,but can you explain to me why
the focus on Han Yunus now?
(02:13):
Is that because the leaderswere born there Mohammed Diff
and Yahya Sinwar and by killingthem and I know there's a lot of
intelligence effort beingfocused on that now by Israel by
killing them, what can youachieve?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (02:30):
So the focus of our operation
since day one has been oncenters of gravity.
Hamas is governing capabilitiesand instruments.
So, of course, after dealingwith Gaza City, after engaging
in Jabalia, after increasing ouractivities in the last few days
(02:51):
in Shorjaya, where there aresubstantial battalions,
substantial forces, it makessense to develop that operation
also into other areas.
And Han Yunus and the area ofHan Yunus and areas in the
surroundings of Han Yunus havedefinite, I would say, elements
of that system, of thatenterprise that Hamas has
(03:13):
developed and, of course, forthose leaders like Diff or
Sinwar, that is their naturalhabitat to begin with.
So there's definitely reason tobelieve that there's a reason
to operate in those areas beyondthe individual needs.
(03:34):
So these leaders, if we'veidentified them as the
mastermind and Sinwar is themastermind of the 7th of October
attack and he's the person thatfinanced it and gave the green
light to go, and Diff is hispartner in crime to devise the
plan then it makes sense to huntthem down and seek them out
(03:59):
wherever they are.
Dana Lewis / host (04:01):
And if you're successful and I assume
you know long term you have apretty good chance of eventually
eliminating them.
What does that say to the restof their followers and what do
you achieve by doing that?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (04:15):
So the way Hamas has developed
over the last 16 years from aterrorist organization to a
terrorist government requires asignificant I would say
substantial paradigm change.
With the powers of government,they created a terrorist army
(04:37):
that came into Israel on the 7thof October.
With the powers of government,they were able to create a
terrorist industry that devise,develops and launches huge
rocket attacks against Israeleven today.
With the powers of government,they created what they call
their naval forces or air forces, which is drone capabilities,
(05:03):
naval commando unit capabilities.
So that is why taking out theleadership, the planners and the
operatives is key toeliminating Hamas from the
governing capabilities of Gaza.
If we deal with all threelevels of those, it will create
(05:24):
a better security situation forIsrael.
It will create an improvedsecurity situation for the
Palestinians of Gaza that havebeen living under this regime.
So, from our perspective, theend state needs to create that
improved security situation foreveryone.
Dana Lewis / host (05:44):
No pressure, no time pressure.
I ask that facetiously, becauseunder the international
community, the pressure is hugeon Israel, whether it's coming
from the Americans.
Then you have people likeFrench President Macron, who has
said that the destruction ofHamas is at cross purposes with
protecting civilians.
Quote the total destruction ofHamas question mark.
(06:05):
Does anybody think that'spossible?
If it's that, the war will last10 years, what would be your
response to that?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (06:13):
So obviously I don't communicate
with presidents and primeministers, but I do agree that
there are ways to fight this warand I also see that the vast
global leadership are supportivewith the idea that Hamas has to
go.
(06:34):
There is no fairy godmother thatcan wish away Hamas and hope
that they just disappear.
That can only be done throughmilitary force.
That military force is beingutilized in accordance to the
laws of armed conflict in, Iwould say, an unprecedented
battleground.
Even the battles conducted inIraq or Afghanistan or Syria
(07:00):
against different, similarjihadi type enemies did not take
place in the density, denselytyped locations that we have in
the Gaza Strip.
So of course there's a hugechallenge to that.
But if we want to achieve ourgoal in making sure that Hamas
never have that power ofdestruction and death against
(07:23):
Israel again, there are no otheropportunities, no real options
than use of military force.
We do acknowledge and dorealize that the humanitarian
effort goes hand in hand withthe operational effort.
We do realize and operate inaccordance to the laws of armed
(07:46):
conflict, which means we aredistinguishing between
terrorists and civilians.
We devise a whole evacuationplan to get people out of Hamas
way, specifically because weoperate within the laws of armed
conflict.
There is no indiscriminate fire.
Dana Lewis / host (08:01):
I mean, can you take me there?
Because it's one thing to saythat, but how do you actually do
it?
I've been in Hanunas, gaza City.
Those dense streets,potentially some of the walls,
like they did in the West Bankand Genine, can be booby trapped
.
There are people popping up outof tunnels, firing RPGs.
(08:24):
How do you mitigate civiliancasualties?
I understand you're trying tomove civilians out of there, but
how do you mitigate that andhow, under all of these calls
for the IDF to be morehumanitarian, to pay more
attention to the numbers ofcivilian casualties, how do you
protect your own troops on theground?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (08:45):
So there is a balance.
Obviously and primarily, weneed to identify and acknowledge
that it was Hamas that choseand chooses, continued to choose
the battleground where to fight.
They don't come out and fightagainst us.
They hide beneath hospitals,they hide beneath schools, they
hide in the kindergartens andmosques, they hide in and around
(09:06):
UN facilities and they've builtthis massive hundreds of
kilometers they say 500kilometers of tunnels, tunnels
between beneath Gaza, gaza.
The Gaza Strip is 365 squarekilometers, so that just goes
how they perceive their ownforce in this capability.
So once they've chosen thisbattleground and we're left to
(09:29):
fight against them, we have tooperate that in an extensive
evacuation plan from thespecific locations we intend to
conduct our battle.
Are you thinking more losses or?
Dana Lewis / host (09:40):
are you in danger?
More of your own soldiers nowtrying to fight a war.
That I mean you could do withartillery, you can do with tank
fire, but understanding civiliancasualties caught in the
crossfire, you're obviouslytrying to mitigate that, but you
risk your own soldiers' livesat the same time.
You lost what seven yesterday,I think, on one given day.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (10:02):
We have, I think, almost 80
soldiers and officers that havebeen lost since the ground
offensive commenced In Gaza.
The reality, of course, is onewhere we are operating in, in
the progress and the advance ofthe forces is very, I would say,
strategic, but also systematic,in a way that maximizes force
(10:23):
protection.
It is all conducted under thecover of aerial support, it is
all conducted with theassistance of engineering units
in order to dismantle explosivedevices, the tunnel network we
found just in the north of theGaza Strip so far, more than 800
tunnels and access points totunnels.
We've destroyed and dismantled500 of those, but everywhere we
(10:47):
go we're finding more and more,because that is precisely the
modus operandi of Hamas.
So we are maximizing forceprotection on one hand, but also
operating under theunderstanding that we are
operating in an urban area.
That means we need to safeguardand minimize the civilian
casualties by evacuation, bytemporary evacuation, to telling
(11:10):
specific neighborhoods inspecific areas, in specific
towns to evacuate, where toevacuate to, but, more
importantly, where to evacuatefrom.
Yes, there is a challenge inthat.
It is a challenge faced, Iwould say, by most professional
militaries today, and I wouldalso say that we are learning
(11:30):
from our American colleagues howthey conducted their battles
and wars in the region in Iraq,afghanistan, in Syria and I
would say we are improving onthose, precisely because we are
trying to minimize the civiliancasualties but maintain and
indeed achieve our militarygoals of dismantling Hamas,
(11:53):
destroying their operational andterrorist capabilities and
their governing capabilities,but also bringing back the
hostages.
Dana Lewis / host (12:02):
And I ask you, the State Department says
one of the reasons that Hamaswon't turn over women hostages
is because of the very fact thatthey may have done to them what
they have done in other areaswhere, like the music concert,
like some of the kibbutzim, thatthey systematically abused
women, they systematically rapedwomen, even though the UN and
(12:23):
other internationalorganizations were slow to speak
out on that and some stillhaven't.
That may be one of the veryreasons that Hamas is slow to
turn over those hostages.
Can you just quickly addressthat?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF S (12:34):
The issue of hostages is a national
priority and, of course, apriority for the IDF.
Dana Lewis / host (12:42):
I can't really elaborate on the
reasoning or why Hamas is nothanding it over, but addressing
the fact that the internationalcommunity so-called human rights
groups, were very slow toacknowledge the human rights
crimes against Israeli womenwhen Hamas left the Gaza Strip
(13:04):
and attacked southern Israel,and is an extension of possibly
the holding of female hostagesin Gaza, because of the very
reason that some of those womenhave been abused and raped, and
worse.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (13:19):
So there are two questions here.
First of all, the treatment ofhostages.
I would say, first of all,we're demanding that the
international humanitarianorganizations, and specifically
the international committee ofthe Red Cross, have access to
the hostages in order to assesstheir well-being.
So the well-being is a toppriority.
And the second is how theinternational community have
(13:40):
responded to this brutalmassacre against Israel, against
Israeli society, Israelis onthe border, whether it's men,
women, children, elderly andthat has absolutely been very
slow and there are questionsthat need to be asked on that.
(14:02):
But that's definitely not themilitary's responsibility to
address that issue.
Dana Lewis / host (14:11):
If I can ask you one more thing, that is
that, and you retweeted it, soit goes a little outside of what
you're doing on the ground inGaza and your role as the IDF
spokesman.
But many people will say thatIsrael is responsible for
elevated terrorist threats inEurope now in Canada and America
(14:33):
because of the war in Gaza.
Yesterday you had this verydramatic exchange with
Congresswoman Stefanik againstwhat she's questioning Harvard
and other university professorsabout whether calling for the
genocide of Jews violates theircodes of conduct on bullying and
(14:59):
harassment, and the president'sessentially declined to label
such calls as bullyingharassment, stating it depends
on the context and whether ittranslates into actionable
behavior.
Does not the language ofannihilation whether you wanna
(15:20):
comment on that directly or notdoes not the language of
annihilation of Jews not feedthe threat levels?
And it is something that,whether it's there, whether it's
here, responsible people haveto step forward and stop that
(15:40):
violent language.
That includes everything fromannihilating Jews, pushing them
into the sea and much more thanthat.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Spo (15:50):
I probably overstepped on my
retweet this morning on thatsubject.
There was a very, very seriousconcern about what is happening.
To connect the rise of violenceor antisemitism against Jews to
the actions of Israel is, initself, an anti-Semitic action.
(16:15):
So, of course, as a Jew, I feelconnected to the family of Jews
around the world, and that iswhy it is, of course, extremely
concerning.
We have to do better, I think,in the world of identifying,
differentiating.
We have to do better ataccepting that Israel has
(16:41):
responsibility to the people ofIsrael, but also have
responsibility to the Jewishpeople around the world, and I
think we try and weigh out thosetwo very important goals
together.
Israel needs to be able to livein safety and security.
(17:02):
The Jewish people around theworld need to be able to live in
safety and security as well.
Dana Lewis / host (17:09):
And condemning violent language
against Jews obviously is animportant thing for political
leaders.
You don't have to say it, I'llsay it and people should be more
willing to step out and speakout against it, and I really do
appreciate you even attemptingto address that question.
(17:30):
I know it's some of itspoliticals.
So, lieutenant Colonel PeterLerner, peter, thank you so much
for your time and explainingwhat's going on as best you can,
and I really do appreciate it.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/ID (17:40):
Thanks very much, Dana.
Dana Lewis / host (17:46):
Colin Clark is a senior research fellow at
the Sufans Center and focuses onterror, and he's been on this
podcast many, many times.
Colin, thank you so much forcoming back.
Thanks for having me.
First of all, as we speak, Ijust want to start with the kind
of the latest news.
And UN Chief Gautares is tryingto invoke a largely
(18:07):
unenforceable clause, Article 99, I never heard of it demanding
a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.
That's what's important aboutit the outcry over the
displacement of Palestinians 80to 90% of them the hunger, the
thirst, the homelessness, thenumber of civilians dead, over
15,000 now.
(18:27):
It seems that Israel cannotcontinue to hunt Hamas with such
a high toll on Palestinians,and yet it is doing just that.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (18:40):
Yeah , you're right, but the images
are devastating that are comingout every day and I think
there's growing concern, atleast in the Biden
administration, to say nothingof this kind of growing chorus
internationally that theIsraelis very much risk losing
this war in a strategic sense,even as they gain whatever minor
tactical victories they thinkthey're gaining by targeting
(19:02):
Hamas high value targets.
So international public opinionis very much turning against
what Israel is doing and I thinkthe fact that we're seeing
images on a daily basis youmentioned 15,000 civilians
killed and so the number of deadfigures higher than that death
displacement it's really justpainful to watch what's
(19:24):
happening on a daily basis.
Dana Lewis / host (19:26):
All right.
So six weeks ago, when all ofthis started about that, a
military affairs correspondentin front of mine in Israel said
we've only got the moral groundfor so long and we know that.
We know that the window isnarrow.
This can't go on a long time.
So this is not news to Israeleither.
(19:47):
I mean, they understand theinternational pressures of this,
but do you think that Netanyahuhimself and his right wing
spouses in his convenient powermarriage which allowed him back
(20:08):
into power some of them havebeen shifted now with this war
cabinet?
Do you think that he issomebody that cares or registers
with?
And why is that important?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (20:20):
My sense is that Netanyahu, as he
always has been, is out forhimself.
First and foremost, he's beencalled Teflon, a survivor, all
these things, which are almostpositive connotations.
But why is he needed to survive?
Because he's been tarred withcorruption allegations and all
sorts of other kind ofaccusations of infor priority.
In fact, I wrote an article forEl Monitor a few weeks ago.
(20:45):
My assessment is thatNetanyahu's power grab attempted
power grab with the SupremeCourt and the judiciary is
largely one of the main factorsthat led to the intelligence
failure.
And if you watch TV andinterviews with Israelis that
were protesting week after weekafter week, including active
(21:05):
military members and reservists,they said as much.
They said this is impactingmilitary readiness.
This is negatively impacting us, and I think we saw that with
the response to October 7th.
Dana Lewis / host (21:19):
What's the danger if Israel responds to
public opinion, internationalpressure and stops this, leaving
Hamas in power in Gaza?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (21:29):
Well , I think it's going to be
impossible to completelyeradicate Hamas.
I mean, there was a WashingtonPost article the other day that
said 5,000 Hamas militants outof 30,000 have been killed.
My sense is that the group waspreparing for this and likely
sent out some operationalcommanders out of the country,
perhaps beforehand, maybe toLebanon, maybe to Iran or
(21:50):
elsewhere.
So they're preparing for theaftermath, the post-conflict
setting.
I don't know that the Israelisare.
I don't see a military strategyor approach that's tied to
concrete political objectives.
And again, another factor in alot of what brought us to this
point is the fact that Netanyahuwas trying to balance Hamas off
(22:10):
of Fatah in the West Bank andto deny both the opportunity for
anything tangible.
Hamas was in many ways,artificially inflated.
In some ways Netanyahu wasplaying footsie with them and
keeping this going, thinkingthat they were content to deal
(22:34):
with the economic benefits andgains and totally misread what
this group is about.
It's hard thinking through whata political settlement looks
like, but I would say, if youtake a step back and look
historically, we have to beprepared for some fairly
unpalatable figures, includingpotentially some within Hamas,
to be part of a futurePalestinian state.
(22:54):
People would have said, it'simpossible for Jerry Adams, a
former member of the IRA ArmyCouncil, to ever be in a future
British government right wherehe was with Sinn Féin.
Same thing with Nelson Mandelaat one point.
So look, insurgents to saynothing of the Irgun and Minakam
Begin right.
The Israelis should know this.
(23:14):
Insurgents and terrorists andrebels, and whatever you want to
call them guerrilla movements,do transition to politics, and
that, I think, is one of the fewways that this is going to be
sustainable.
If Hamas is totally shut out ofa political process, you're
essentially condemning to alifelong splinter group that the
Israelis are going to befighting against.
Dana Lewis / host (23:36):
I guess the only difference in this case is
that we've already been throughthis.
There was a piece of cords theOslo piece of cords, and Fata
largely.
But the DFLP, the PFLP, theIslamic Jihad, Hamas were
(23:57):
invited into some of that and insome ways did participate in
the Palestinian parliament, tobegin with, after some of them
were jailed by Arafat forblowing up buses in Tel Aviv and
elsewhere.
So why isn't it morally rightand militarily feasible and
(24:19):
there's two questions there forIsrael to say that's it, Hamas
has got to be removed fromrunning Gaza?
Whether they can wipe out everysingle fighter, of course not.
But why isn't eradication ofthem as a ruling authority in
the Gaza Strip that is bent onattacking Israel and never
participating in any kind ofpeace process?
(24:41):
Why isn't it feasible?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (24:44):
Well .
So it's not feasible militarilyfor the reasons you just
alluded to.
They're going to remain.
They've run a vast tunnelnetwork.
Whether it's morally right, Ihave no problem morally with
eradicating a terrorist group,it's more the operational
realities.
Secondarily, maybe primarily,can something be morally right
(25:06):
attacking this group?
When you look at the byproduct,when you look at the second
order impact of 15 plus thousandcivilians killed?
You also said what's calling?
Dana Lewis / host (25:16):
sorry and I don't mean to interrupt, but
just before you move on, forthat, what's the alternative?
Because you can't suddenly putin motion a political process
and say, let's talk about atwo-state solution, which, by
the way, the Israelis, after1,200 people, are dead and over
200 of them are kidnapped.
(25:37):
And how would you suddenly moveto a political process that
would involve this group thatattacks?
This group is not after atwo-state solution.
This group, hamas, is after theeradication of Israel from the
river to the sea.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (25:54):
Yeah .
So again, if you were to tellme that Jerry Adams would be
part of any kind of futuregovernment.
And there is multiple attemptsthere too.
I mean, we can go back to theSunningdale agreement in 1973,
Angle Irish in 85, DowningStreet Declaration 93,.
Multiple attempts, multiplefailures.
We did a study at RAND where welooked at 71 insurgencies from
(26:17):
the end of World War II to 2009.
The median length of theseconflicts was a decade.
So it depends how you want tostart measuring when this
conflict began, when it endedand I agree, If I was in Israel
I wouldn't want to even considerthat as a possibility.
I'm not even making it as apolicy recommendation.
(26:38):
I'm saying, historically, whenwe look at these conflicts and
how they actually end, thesustainable ones are ones that
actually bring bad actors into agovernment and make those
actors responsible for governingin some kind of fashion.
Again, not always they're oftenunsavory actors.
But I would ask you, what's thealternative?
(27:00):
To fight forever, I mean, ifthe Israelis haven't eradicated?
Dana Lewis / host (27:04):
them why?
Sorry, if you've asked me,isn't the alternative to bring
the more moderate and many wayssecular Palestinian authority,
FATA and those on board withthem, back in to rule the Gaza
Strip, even though PrimeMinister Netanyahu has said
that's impossible and he wouldnever allow it?
But isn't that the realsolution?
(27:25):
That Hamas is pushed out andthat Abu Mazen and FATA are
invited back to retake Gaza and,if necessary, jail members of
Hamas?
That won't go along with futurepeace accords and future
agreements with Israel.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Cente (27:42):
Again , if we're talking about
feasibility, you're looking at atime now where Hamas is
probably more popular than it'sbeen.
If you look at the recentexchange of hostages and
prisoners, alongside thoseyellow FATA flags, you saw many
green Hamas flags in the WestBank.
So I would ask you, is this ademocratic election?
(28:03):
I mean, who's responsible forthis?
Will the Palestinians be ableto vote?
And if they do, is it Hamas orFATA that wins?
So look, I haven't seen a clearexplanation of what the right
solution is here in terms ofpolitical settlements.
I've been reading a lot,listening to a lot of people
much smarter than me, but Ithink if we don't at least start
(28:24):
hammering out the contours ofwhat a future political
settlement looks like, thenwe're already behind the eight
ball.
Dana Lewis / host (28:32):
I agree, somebody has to start and they
should have started yesterday,and Netanyahu probably is the
only guy that is unwilling tostart some kind of political
process.
But can I ask you just aboutthe threat of terror attacks?
Europe is warned of a highthreat warning now, and
(28:53):
Christopher Wray from the FBIhas said red lights are blinking
everywhere.
He's never seen it like this.
And obviously and Soufan, bythe way, I think you already
know has written a reportrecently, this week, talking
about the manipulation, evenusing AI, on some of the social
(29:14):
media platforms.
But the fury, the angercertainly could fuel an attack
from extremists and people areare pretty well expecting
something to go bang here.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (29:27):
Yeah , I mean, if you look at the
warnings from Director Ray herein the United States, if you
look at some of the warnings inEurope around soft targets and I
just returned from Europe overthe weekend, I was there for a
week and the chatter among lawenforcement professionals,
there's a very heightened alert,especially around soft targets
(29:47):
and Christmas markets.
We've even seen groups like theIslamic State and Al Qaeda
attempt to take advantage of theconflict in Gaza, even as both
of them have consistentlydenigrated Hamas as an apostate
regime or group for A sittingfor elections and B cooperating
with a Shia group or a Shiacountry in Iran.
(30:08):
So at the same time theydenigrate Hamas, but they're
attempting to leverage and takeadvantage of the collective rage
among individuals throughoutparts of the West to spur them,
to radicalize them and push themover the edge to conduct an
attack.
In fact, if we don't see somekind of an attempt over the
(30:30):
coming weeks, I'll be surprised.
There was a 15-year-old inGermany who has recently rolled
up for planning to blow up aChristmas market.
There was a recent attack inParis.
I think I was reading aboutanother stabbing this morning.
So these things are probablyinevitable.
The question is, is theresomething larger.
But I would say, if you look atwhat happened here I think it
(30:52):
was maybe the day beforeThanksgiving on the US-Canadian
border there was a car thatcrashed and blew up and the
immediate concern and reallyobsession was that it was a car
bomb and terrorism.
So I would say that terrorismworks Psychologically.
People are scared, they'reskittish, they're on edge,
they're looking at things andvery worried.
(31:14):
So we're already in that kindof phase, we're in that paradigm
.
I would be really shocked if wedon't see some kind of an
attempt.
Let's hope nothing succeeds.
But emotions are high, I think,on all sides.
So it's likely that we're goingto see something in the West,
please be wrong.
Dana Lewis / host (31:35):
I hope I am.
Last question to you You'rewatching all your internal
politics in the United Statesand the fourth Republican debate
last night just doesn't seem todeal with foreign affairs and
really what's going on in theworld.
But how do you see the policyand pressure on Israel playing
(32:01):
out as we roll into 2024 under aBiden administration but with a
Trump presidency possiblylooming out there as well?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (32:12):
Yeah , it's kind of a mess here in
the US in terms of domesticpolitics.
Look, the administration hassignaled support for Israel as
both.
It's one of the few bipartisanagreements in this country,
particularly in an election year.
But at the same time, some ofthe polls are worrying for the
administration Demographically.
(32:33):
When you look at Gen Z, whenyou look at Arab and Muslim
Americans who have votedDemocrat in the past, who are
now saying they're going to sitout the election, and I think
there's a perception among theyounger generation that the
Biden administration has writtenIsrael a blank check and
there's American blood on thehands.
(32:54):
There's Palestinian blood onAmerica's hands for supplying
weapons to Israel that havekilled civilians.
That's one of the big narrativesand themes that's driving a lot
of the protests here in theUnited States.
So I think the administrationis in a very tough position and
is going to have to really workmagic to thread that needle and,
(33:14):
of course, with a potentialTrump presidency looming in the
background, it's a really timeof great tension here in the
United States and I think you'reright, and I watched the debate
last night we're not reallytalking about real issues there.
We're fighting over identitypolitics and transgender and all
(33:36):
sorts of things that are.
I mean again, I'm a foreignpolicy expert.
That's what I tend to focus on,but I'd say 80% of the things
that these candidates arearguing about are really not
major issues to most Americans.
Dana Lewis / host (33:50):
And the candidate wasn't there.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (33:53):
Yeah , which is just bizarre.
Dana Lewis / host (33:54):
Yeah, colin Clark with the Siobhan Center.
Colin, great to talk to you,good to see you.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Cent (33:59):
Thanks , Dana.
Dana Lewis / host (33:59):
This week was notable when three
university professors in Americatestified before lawmakers
about their handling ofanti-Semitic incidents on
college campuses.
Lawmakers Tuesday questionedHarvard University President
Claudine Gay, university ofPennsylvania President Liz
McGill and MassachusettsInstitute of Technology
(34:20):
President Sally Kornbou aboutefforts to combat anti-Semitism
since the Israeli Hamas Warbegan in October.
After the House Committee onEducation and the Workforce
Hearing, the presidents werewidely condemned for refusing to
say whether calls for thegenocide of Jews violate school
policies on bullying andharassment.
(34:42):
Calls for genocide are hatespeech.
Hate speech creates acts ofviolence.
Freedom of speech doesn't meanfreedom to hate and harass.
I thought society figured outthis a long time ago.
It seems we haven't.
Not in the case of Jews, but ifthe same standards were applied
(35:03):
to any other ethnic minority,there would have been no doubt
in the minds of those universitypresidents.
They had to condemn calls forgenocide, and that's a sad state
of affairs and clearlyillustrates what is rampant
anti-Semitism in America and inEurope.
Now I'm Dana Lewis.
Thanks for listening to thisweek's podcast.
(35:23):
Please share it and I'll talkto you again soon.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.
Hi everyone and welcome to another edition
of Backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (00:04):
But the images are devastating that
are coming out every day and Ithink there's growing concern,
at least in the Bidenadministration, to say nothing
of this kind of growing chorusinternationally, that the
Israelis very much risk losingthis war in a strategic sense,
even as they gain whatever minortactical victories they think
they're gaining by targetingHamas high value targets.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (00:27):
So the way Hamas has developed
over the last 16 years from aterrorist organization to a
terrorist government requires asignificant I would say
substantial paradigm change.
With the powers of government,they created a terrorist army
(00:47):
that came into Israel on the 7thof October.
With the powers of government,they were able to create a
terrorist industry that devise,develop and launch huge rocket
attacks against Israel, even totoday.
Dana Lewis / host (01:07):
On this Backstory.
Gaza, the war rages.
80 to 90 percent of thePalestinians who live there have
been displaced.
Hamas leadership is hidingunderground.
Aid is lacking.
Some of it has been taken byHamas instead of going to
desperate gasses.
137 Israelis are stillkidnapped in Gaza held by Hamas.
(01:28):
1200 Israelis were killedOctober the 7th when Hamas
terrorists attacked southernIsrael.
So far, as many as 17,000Palestinians have been killed.
How does it end?
No end is in sight.
No real political dialogue forwhat happens the day after war
in Gaza.
On this podcast, colin Clarkfrom the Sufans Center, but
(01:52):
first the IDF spokesman.
All right, idf spokesman.
Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lernerjoins me now from Israel.
Hello sir, how are you?
How are you doing?
Thank you, we're doing good,but can you explain to me why
the focus on Han Yunus now?
(02:13):
Is that because the leaderswere born there Mohammed Diff
and Yahya Sinwar and by killingthem and I know there's a lot of
intelligence effort beingfocused on that now by Israel by
killing them, what can youachieve?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (02:30):
So the focus of our operation
since day one has been oncenters of gravity.
Hamas is governing capabilitiesand instruments.
So, of course, after dealingwith Gaza City, after engaging
in Jabalia, after increasing ouractivities in the last few days
(02:51):
in Shorjaya, where there aresubstantial battalions,
substantial forces, it makessense to develop that operation
also into other areas.
And Han Yunus and the area ofHan Yunus and areas in the
surroundings of Han Yunus havedefinite, I would say, elements
of that system, of thatenterprise that Hamas has
(03:13):
developed and, of course, forthose leaders like Diff or
Sinwar, that is their naturalhabitat to begin with.
So there's definitely reason tobelieve that there's a reason
to operate in those areas beyondthe individual needs.
(03:34):
So these leaders, if we'veidentified them as the
mastermind and Sinwar is themastermind of the 7th of October
attack and he's the person thatfinanced it and gave the green
light to go, and Diff is hispartner in crime to devise the
plan then it makes sense to huntthem down and seek them out
(03:59):
wherever they are.
Dana Lewis / host (04:01):
And if you're successful and I assume
you know long term you have apretty good chance of eventually
eliminating them.
What does that say to the restof their followers and what do
you achieve by doing that?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (04:15):
So the way Hamas has developed
over the last 16 years from aterrorist organization to a
terrorist government requires asignificant I would say
substantial paradigm change.
With the powers of government,they created a terrorist army
(04:37):
that came into Israel on the 7thof October.
With the powers of government,they were able to create a
terrorist industry that devise,develops and launches huge
rocket attacks against Israeleven today.
With the powers of government,they created what they call
their naval forces or air forces, which is drone capabilities,
(05:03):
naval commando unit capabilities.
So that is why taking out theleadership, the planners and the
operatives is key toeliminating Hamas from the
governing capabilities of Gaza.
If we deal with all threelevels of those, it will create
(05:24):
a better security situation forIsrael.
It will create an improvedsecurity situation for the
Palestinians of Gaza that havebeen living under this regime.
So, from our perspective, theend state needs to create that
improved security situation foreveryone.
Dana Lewis / host (05:44):
No pressure, no time pressure.
I ask that facetiously, becauseunder the international
community, the pressure is hugeon Israel, whether it's coming
from the Americans.
Then you have people likeFrench President Macron, who has
said that the destruction ofHamas is at cross purposes with
protecting civilians.
Quote the total destruction ofHamas question mark.
(06:05):
Does anybody think that'spossible?
If it's that, the war will last10 years, what would be your
response to that?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (06:13):
So obviously I don't communicate
with presidents and primeministers, but I do agree that
there are ways to fight this warand I also see that the vast
global leadership are supportivewith the idea that Hamas has to
go.
(06:34):
There is no fairy godmother thatcan wish away Hamas and hope
that they just disappear.
That can only be done throughmilitary force.
That military force is beingutilized in accordance to the
laws of armed conflict in, Iwould say, an unprecedented
battleground.
Even the battles conducted inIraq or Afghanistan or Syria
(07:00):
against different, similarjihadi type enemies did not take
place in the density, denselytyped locations that we have in
the Gaza Strip.
So of course there's a hugechallenge to that.
But if we want to achieve ourgoal in making sure that Hamas
never have that power ofdestruction and death against
(07:23):
Israel again, there are no otheropportunities, no real options
than use of military force.
We do acknowledge and dorealize that the humanitarian
effort goes hand in hand withthe operational effort.
We do realize and operate inaccordance to the laws of armed
(07:46):
conflict, which means we aredistinguishing between
terrorists and civilians.
We devise a whole evacuationplan to get people out of Hamas
way, specifically because weoperate within the laws of armed
conflict.
There is no indiscriminate fire.
Dana Lewis / host (08:01):
I mean, can you take me there?
Because it's one thing to saythat, but how do you actually do
it?
I've been in Hanunas, gaza City.
Those dense streets,potentially some of the walls,
like they did in the West Bankand Genine, can be booby trapped
.
There are people popping up outof tunnels, firing RPGs.
(08:24):
How do you mitigate civiliancasualties?
I understand you're trying tomove civilians out of there, but
how do you mitigate that andhow, under all of these calls
for the IDF to be morehumanitarian, to pay more
attention to the numbers ofcivilian casualties, how do you
protect your own troops on theground?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (08:45):
So there is a balance.
Obviously and primarily, weneed to identify and acknowledge
that it was Hamas that choseand chooses, continued to choose
the battleground where to fight.
They don't come out and fightagainst us.
They hide beneath hospitals,they hide beneath schools, they
hide in the kindergartens andmosques, they hide in and around
(09:06):
UN facilities and they've builtthis massive hundreds of
kilometers they say 500kilometers of tunnels, tunnels
between beneath Gaza, gaza.
The Gaza Strip is 365 squarekilometers, so that just goes
how they perceive their ownforce in this capability.
So once they've chosen thisbattleground and we're left to
(09:29):
fight against them, we have tooperate that in an extensive
evacuation plan from thespecific locations we intend to
conduct our battle.
Are you thinking more losses or?
Dana Lewis / host (09:40):
are you in danger?
More of your own soldiers nowtrying to fight a war.
That I mean you could do withartillery, you can do with tank
fire, but understanding civiliancasualties caught in the
crossfire, you're obviouslytrying to mitigate that, but you
risk your own soldiers' livesat the same time.
You lost what seven yesterday,I think, on one given day.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (10:02):
We have, I think, almost 80
soldiers and officers that havebeen lost since the ground
offensive commenced In Gaza.
The reality, of course, is onewhere we are operating in, in
the progress and the advance ofthe forces is very, I would say,
strategic, but also systematic,in a way that maximizes force
(10:23):
protection.
It is all conducted under thecover of aerial support, it is
all conducted with theassistance of engineering units
in order to dismantle explosivedevices, the tunnel network we
found just in the north of theGaza Strip so far, more than 800
tunnels and access points totunnels.
We've destroyed and dismantled500 of those, but everywhere we
(10:47):
go we're finding more and more,because that is precisely the
modus operandi of Hamas.
So we are maximizing forceprotection on one hand, but also
operating under theunderstanding that we are
operating in an urban area.
That means we need to safeguardand minimize the civilian
casualties by evacuation, bytemporary evacuation, to telling
(11:10):
specific neighborhoods inspecific areas, in specific
towns to evacuate, where toevacuate to, but, more
importantly, where to evacuatefrom.
Yes, there is a challenge inthat.
It is a challenge faced, Iwould say, by most professional
militaries today, and I wouldalso say that we are learning
(11:30):
from our American colleagues howthey conducted their battles
and wars in the region in Iraq,afghanistan, in Syria and I
would say we are improving onthose, precisely because we are
trying to minimize the civiliancasualties but maintain and
indeed achieve our militarygoals of dismantling Hamas,
(11:53):
destroying their operational andterrorist capabilities and
their governing capabilities,but also bringing back the
hostages.
Dana Lewis / host (12:02):
And I ask you, the State Department says
one of the reasons that Hamaswon't turn over women hostages
is because of the very fact thatthey may have done to them what
they have done in other areaswhere, like the music concert,
like some of the kibbutzim, thatthey systematically abused
women, they systematically rapedwomen, even though the UN and
(12:23):
other internationalorganizations were slow to speak
out on that and some stillhaven't.
That may be one of the veryreasons that Hamas is slow to
turn over those hostages.
Can you just quickly addressthat?
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF S (12:34):
The issue of hostages is a national
priority and, of course, apriority for the IDF.
Dana Lewis / host (12:42):
I can't really elaborate on the
reasoning or why Hamas is nothanding it over, but addressing
the fact that the internationalcommunity so-called human rights
groups, were very slow toacknowledge the human rights
crimes against Israeli womenwhen Hamas left the Gaza Strip
(13:04):
and attacked southern Israel,and is an extension of possibly
the holding of female hostagesin Gaza, because of the very
reason that some of those womenhave been abused and raped, and
worse.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Sp (13:19):
So there are two questions here.
First of all, the treatment ofhostages.
I would say, first of all,we're demanding that the
international humanitarianorganizations, and specifically
the international committee ofthe Red Cross, have access to
the hostages in order to assesstheir well-being.
So the well-being is a toppriority.
And the second is how theinternational community have
(13:40):
responded to this brutalmassacre against Israel, against
Israeli society, Israelis onthe border, whether it's men,
women, children, elderly andthat has absolutely been very
slow and there are questionsthat need to be asked on that.
(14:02):
But that's definitely not themilitary's responsibility to
address that issue.
Dana Lewis / host (14:11):
If I can ask you one more thing, that is
that, and you retweeted it, soit goes a little outside of what
you're doing on the ground inGaza and your role as the IDF
spokesman.
But many people will say thatIsrael is responsible for
elevated terrorist threats inEurope now in Canada and America
(14:33):
because of the war in Gaza.
Yesterday you had this verydramatic exchange with
Congresswoman Stefanik againstwhat she's questioning Harvard
and other university professorsabout whether calling for the
genocide of Jews violates theircodes of conduct on bullying and
(14:59):
harassment, and the president'sessentially declined to label
such calls as bullyingharassment, stating it depends
on the context and whether ittranslates into actionable
behavior.
Does not the language ofannihilation whether you wanna
(15:20):
comment on that directly or notdoes not the language of
annihilation of Jews not feedthe threat levels?
And it is something that,whether it's there, whether it's
here, responsible people haveto step forward and stop that
(15:40):
violent language.
That includes everything fromannihilating Jews, pushing them
into the sea and much more thanthat.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/IDF Spo (15:50):
I probably overstepped on my
retweet this morning on thatsubject.
There was a very, very seriousconcern about what is happening.
To connect the rise of violenceor antisemitism against Jews to
the actions of Israel is, initself, an anti-Semitic action.
(16:15):
So, of course, as a Jew, I feelconnected to the family of Jews
around the world, and that iswhy it is, of course, extremely
concerning.
We have to do better, I think,in the world of identifying,
differentiating.
We have to do better ataccepting that Israel has
(16:41):
responsibility to the people ofIsrael, but also have
responsibility to the Jewishpeople around the world, and I
think we try and weigh out thosetwo very important goals
together.
Israel needs to be able to livein safety and security.
(17:02):
The Jewish people around theworld need to be able to live in
safety and security as well.
Dana Lewis / host (17:09):
And condemning violent language
against Jews obviously is animportant thing for political
leaders.
You don't have to say it, I'llsay it and people should be more
willing to step out and speakout against it, and I really do
appreciate you even attemptingto address that question.
(17:30):
I know it's some of itspoliticals.
So, lieutenant Colonel PeterLerner, peter, thank you so much
for your time and explainingwhat's going on as best you can,
and I really do appreciate it.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner/ID (17:40):
Thanks very much, Dana.
Dana Lewis / host (17:46):
Colin Clark is a senior research fellow at
the Sufans Center and focuses onterror, and he's been on this
podcast many, many times.
Colin, thank you so much forcoming back.
Thanks for having me.
First of all, as we speak, Ijust want to start with the kind
of the latest news.
And UN Chief Gautares is tryingto invoke a largely
(18:07):
unenforceable clause, Article 99, I never heard of it demanding
a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.
That's what's important aboutit the outcry over the
displacement of Palestinians 80to 90% of them the hunger, the
thirst, the homelessness, thenumber of civilians dead, over
15,000 now.
(18:27):
It seems that Israel cannotcontinue to hunt Hamas with such
a high toll on Palestinians,and yet it is doing just that.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (18:40):
Yeah , you're right, but the images
are devastating that are comingout every day and I think
there's growing concern, atleast in the Biden
administration, to say nothingof this kind of growing chorus
internationally that theIsraelis very much risk losing
this war in a strategic sense,even as they gain whatever minor
tactical victories they thinkthey're gaining by targeting
(19:02):
Hamas high value targets.
So international public opinionis very much turning against
what Israel is doing and I thinkthe fact that we're seeing
images on a daily basis youmentioned 15,000 civilians
killed and so the number of deadfigures higher than that death
displacement it's really justpainful to watch what's
(19:24):
happening on a daily basis.
Dana Lewis / host (19:26):
All right.
So six weeks ago, when all ofthis started about that, a
military affairs correspondentin front of mine in Israel said
we've only got the moral groundfor so long and we know that.
We know that the window isnarrow.
This can't go on a long time.
So this is not news to Israeleither.
(19:47):
I mean, they understand theinternational pressures of this,
but do you think that Netanyahuhimself and his right wing
spouses in his convenient powermarriage which allowed him back
(20:08):
into power some of them havebeen shifted now with this war
cabinet?
Do you think that he issomebody that cares or registers
with?
And why is that important?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (20:20):
My sense is that Netanyahu, as he
always has been, is out forhimself.
First and foremost, he's beencalled Teflon, a survivor, all
these things, which are almostpositive connotations.
But why is he needed to survive?
Because he's been tarred withcorruption allegations and all
sorts of other kind ofaccusations of infor priority.
In fact, I wrote an article forEl Monitor a few weeks ago.
(20:45):
My assessment is thatNetanyahu's power grab attempted
power grab with the SupremeCourt and the judiciary is
largely one of the main factorsthat led to the intelligence
failure.
And if you watch TV andinterviews with Israelis that
were protesting week after weekafter week, including active
(21:05):
military members and reservists,they said as much.
They said this is impactingmilitary readiness.
This is negatively impacting us, and I think we saw that with
the response to October 7th.
Dana Lewis / host (21:19):
What's the danger if Israel responds to
public opinion, internationalpressure and stops this, leaving
Hamas in power in Gaza?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (21:29):
Well , I think it's going to be
impossible to completelyeradicate Hamas.
I mean, there was a WashingtonPost article the other day that
said 5,000 Hamas militants outof 30,000 have been killed.
My sense is that the group waspreparing for this and likely
sent out some operationalcommanders out of the country,
perhaps beforehand, maybe toLebanon, maybe to Iran or
(21:50):
elsewhere.
So they're preparing for theaftermath, the post-conflict
setting.
I don't know that the Israelisare.
I don't see a military strategyor approach that's tied to
concrete political objectives.
And again, another factor in alot of what brought us to this
point is the fact that Netanyahuwas trying to balance Hamas off
(22:10):
of Fatah in the West Bank andto deny both the opportunity for
anything tangible.
Hamas was in many ways,artificially inflated.
In some ways Netanyahu wasplaying footsie with them and
keeping this going, thinkingthat they were content to deal
(22:34):
with the economic benefits andgains and totally misread what
this group is about.
It's hard thinking through whata political settlement looks
like, but I would say, if youtake a step back and look
historically, we have to beprepared for some fairly
unpalatable figures, includingpotentially some within Hamas,
to be part of a futurePalestinian state.
(22:54):
People would have said, it'simpossible for Jerry Adams, a
former member of the IRA ArmyCouncil, to ever be in a future
British government right wherehe was with Sinn Féin.
Same thing with Nelson Mandelaat one point.
So look, insurgents to saynothing of the Irgun and Minakam
Begin right.
The Israelis should know this.
(23:14):
Insurgents and terrorists andrebels, and whatever you want to
call them guerrilla movements,do transition to politics, and
that, I think, is one of the fewways that this is going to be
sustainable.
If Hamas is totally shut out ofa political process, you're
essentially condemning to alifelong splinter group that the
Israelis are going to befighting against.
Dana Lewis / host (23:36):
I guess the only difference in this case is
that we've already been throughthis.
There was a piece of cords theOslo piece of cords, and Fata
largely.
But the DFLP, the PFLP, theIslamic Jihad, Hamas were
(23:57):
invited into some of that and insome ways did participate in
the Palestinian parliament, tobegin with, after some of them
were jailed by Arafat forblowing up buses in Tel Aviv and
elsewhere.
So why isn't it morally rightand militarily feasible and
(24:19):
there's two questions there forIsrael to say that's it, Hamas
has got to be removed fromrunning Gaza?
Whether they can wipe out everysingle fighter, of course not.
But why isn't eradication ofthem as a ruling authority in
the Gaza Strip that is bent onattacking Israel and never
participating in any kind ofpeace process?
(24:41):
Why isn't it feasible?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (24:44):
Well .
So it's not feasible militarilyfor the reasons you just
alluded to.
They're going to remain.
They've run a vast tunnelnetwork.
Whether it's morally right, Ihave no problem morally with
eradicating a terrorist group,it's more the operational
realities.
Secondarily, maybe primarily,can something be morally right
(25:06):
attacking this group?
When you look at the byproduct,when you look at the second
order impact of 15 plus thousandcivilians killed?
You also said what's calling?
Dana Lewis / host (25:16):
sorry and I don't mean to interrupt, but
just before you move on, forthat, what's the alternative?
Because you can't suddenly putin motion a political process
and say, let's talk about atwo-state solution, which, by
the way, the Israelis, after1,200 people, are dead and over
200 of them are kidnapped.
(25:37):
And how would you suddenly moveto a political process that
would involve this group thatattacks?
This group is not after atwo-state solution.
This group, hamas, is after theeradication of Israel from the
river to the sea.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (25:54):
Yeah .
So again, if you were to tellme that Jerry Adams would be
part of any kind of futuregovernment.
And there is multiple attemptsthere too.
I mean, we can go back to theSunningdale agreement in 1973,
Angle Irish in 85, DowningStreet Declaration 93,.
Multiple attempts, multiplefailures.
We did a study at RAND where welooked at 71 insurgencies from
(26:17):
the end of World War II to 2009.
The median length of theseconflicts was a decade.
So it depends how you want tostart measuring when this
conflict began, when it endedand I agree, If I was in Israel
I wouldn't want to even considerthat as a possibility.
I'm not even making it as apolicy recommendation.
(26:38):
I'm saying, historically, whenwe look at these conflicts and
how they actually end, thesustainable ones are ones that
actually bring bad actors into agovernment and make those
actors responsible for governingin some kind of fashion.
Again, not always they're oftenunsavory actors.
But I would ask you, what's thealternative?
(27:00):
To fight forever, I mean, ifthe Israelis haven't eradicated?
Dana Lewis / host (27:04):
them why?
Sorry, if you've asked me,isn't the alternative to bring
the more moderate and many wayssecular Palestinian authority,
FATA and those on board withthem, back in to rule the Gaza
Strip, even though PrimeMinister Netanyahu has said
that's impossible and he wouldnever allow it?
But isn't that the realsolution?
(27:25):
That Hamas is pushed out andthat Abu Mazen and FATA are
invited back to retake Gaza and,if necessary, jail members of
Hamas?
That won't go along with futurepeace accords and future
agreements with Israel.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Cente (27:42):
Again , if we're talking about
feasibility, you're looking at atime now where Hamas is
probably more popular than it'sbeen.
If you look at the recentexchange of hostages and
prisoners, alongside thoseyellow FATA flags, you saw many
green Hamas flags in the WestBank.
So I would ask you, is this ademocratic election?
(28:03):
I mean, who's responsible forthis?
Will the Palestinians be ableto vote?
And if they do, is it Hamas orFATA that wins?
So look, I haven't seen a clearexplanation of what the right
solution is here in terms ofpolitical settlements.
I've been reading a lot,listening to a lot of people
much smarter than me, but Ithink if we don't at least start
(28:24):
hammering out the contours ofwhat a future political
settlement looks like, thenwe're already behind the eight
ball.
Dana Lewis / host (28:32):
I agree, somebody has to start and they
should have started yesterday,and Netanyahu probably is the
only guy that is unwilling tostart some kind of political
process.
But can I ask you just aboutthe threat of terror attacks?
Europe is warned of a highthreat warning now, and
(28:53):
Christopher Wray from the FBIhas said red lights are blinking
everywhere.
He's never seen it like this.
And obviously and Soufan, bythe way, I think you already
know has written a reportrecently, this week, talking
about the manipulation, evenusing AI, on some of the social
(29:14):
media platforms.
But the fury, the angercertainly could fuel an attack
from extremists and people areare pretty well expecting
something to go bang here.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (29:27):
Yeah , I mean, if you look at the
warnings from Director Ray herein the United States, if you
look at some of the warnings inEurope around soft targets and I
just returned from Europe overthe weekend, I was there for a
week and the chatter among lawenforcement professionals,
there's a very heightened alert,especially around soft targets
(29:47):
and Christmas markets.
We've even seen groups like theIslamic State and Al Qaeda
attempt to take advantage of theconflict in Gaza, even as both
of them have consistentlydenigrated Hamas as an apostate
regime or group for A sittingfor elections and B cooperating
with a Shia group or a Shiacountry in Iran.
(30:08):
So at the same time theydenigrate Hamas, but they're
attempting to leverage and takeadvantage of the collective rage
among individuals throughoutparts of the West to spur them,
to radicalize them and push themover the edge to conduct an
attack.
In fact, if we don't see somekind of an attempt over the
(30:30):
coming weeks, I'll be surprised.
There was a 15-year-old inGermany who has recently rolled
up for planning to blow up aChristmas market.
There was a recent attack inParis.
I think I was reading aboutanother stabbing this morning.
So these things are probablyinevitable.
The question is, is theresomething larger.
But I would say, if you look atwhat happened here I think it
(30:52):
was maybe the day beforeThanksgiving on the US-Canadian
border there was a car thatcrashed and blew up and the
immediate concern and reallyobsession was that it was a car
bomb and terrorism.
So I would say that terrorismworks Psychologically.
People are scared, they'reskittish, they're on edge,
they're looking at things andvery worried.
(31:14):
So we're already in that kindof phase, we're in that paradigm
.
I would be really shocked if wedon't see some kind of an
attempt.
Let's hope nothing succeeds.
But emotions are high, I think,on all sides.
So it's likely that we're goingto see something in the West,
please be wrong.
Dana Lewis / host (31:35):
I hope I am.
Last question to you You'rewatching all your internal
politics in the United Statesand the fourth Republican debate
last night just doesn't seem todeal with foreign affairs and
really what's going on in theworld.
But how do you see the policyand pressure on Israel playing
(32:01):
out as we roll into 2024 under aBiden administration but with a
Trump presidency possiblylooming out there as well?
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (32:12):
Yeah , it's kind of a mess here in
the US in terms of domesticpolitics.
Look, the administration hassignaled support for Israel as
both.
It's one of the few bipartisanagreements in this country,
particularly in an election year.
But at the same time, some ofthe polls are worrying for the
administration Demographically.
(32:33):
When you look at Gen Z, whenyou look at Arab and Muslim
Americans who have votedDemocrat in the past, who are
now saying they're going to sitout the election, and I think
there's a perception among theyounger generation that the
Biden administration has writtenIsrael a blank check and
there's American blood on thehands.
(32:54):
There's Palestinian blood onAmerica's hands for supplying
weapons to Israel that havekilled civilians.
That's one of the big narrativesand themes that's driving a lot
of the protests here in theUnited States.
So I think the administrationis in a very tough position and
is going to have to really workmagic to thread that needle and,
(33:14):
of course, with a potentialTrump presidency looming in the
background, it's a really timeof great tension here in the
United States and I think you'reright, and I watched the debate
last night we're not reallytalking about real issues there.
We're fighting over identitypolitics and transgender and all
(33:36):
sorts of things that are.
I mean again, I'm a foreignpolicy expert.
That's what I tend to focus on,but I'd say 80% of the things
that these candidates arearguing about are really not
major issues to most Americans.
Dana Lewis / host (33:50):
And the candidate wasn't there.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Center (33:53):
Yeah , which is just bizarre.
Dana Lewis / host (33:54):
Yeah, colin Clark with the Siobhan Center.
Colin, great to talk to you,good to see you.
Colin Clarke/Soufan Cent (33:59):
Thanks , Dana.
Dana Lewis / host (33:59):
This week was notable when three
university professors in Americatestified before lawmakers
about their handling ofanti-Semitic incidents on
college campuses.
Lawmakers Tuesday questionedHarvard University President
Claudine Gay, university ofPennsylvania President Liz
McGill and MassachusettsInstitute of Technology
(34:20):
President Sally Kornbou aboutefforts to combat anti-Semitism
since the Israeli Hamas Warbegan in October.
After the House Committee onEducation and the Workforce
Hearing, the presidents werewidely condemned for refusing to
say whether calls for thegenocide of Jews violate school
policies on bullying andharassment.
(34:42):
Calls for genocide are hatespeech.
Hate speech creates acts ofviolence.
Freedom of speech doesn't meanfreedom to hate and harass.
I thought society figured outthis a long time ago.
It seems we haven't.
Not in the case of Jews, but ifthe same standards were applied
(35:03):
to any other ethnic minority,there would have been no doubt
in the minds of those universitypresidents.
They had to condemn calls forgenocide, and that's a sad state
of affairs and clearlyillustrates what is rampant
anti-Semitism in America and inEurope.
Now I'm Dana Lewis.
Thanks for listening to thisweek's podcast.
(35:23):
Please share it and I'll talkto you again soon.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.
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