November 20, 2025 • 35 mins
The Baseball Podcast dives into one of the most pivotal pressure-cooker weeks on the MLB calendar, taking you inside the financial and roster decisions that are quietly reshaping the next several seasons. This isn’t just hot-stove chatter. With the non-tender deadline and Rule 5 protection crunch converging around November 20th, front offices are being forced into high-stakes choices that reveal exactly who is all-in to contend and who is hedging for the future.The episode opens with Atlanta, the franchise that always seems one step ahead of the market. The hosts break down why Alex Anthopoulos moved aggressively to lock up elite closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year, $16 million deal, what that price tag says about the exploding value of late-inning arms, and how the Braves outmaneuvered contenders like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets, and Orioles to keep their anchor. From there, they unpack Atlanta’s quieter swap of Mauricio Dubón for Nick Allen and the brutal reality of the Davis Daniel experiment, showing just how thin the margin is between cheap, reliable depth and a total miss.Then the show zooms out to the blockbuster that defines this moment of the offseason: the Orioles sending four years of cost-controlled upside in Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for one year of slugger Taylor Ward. You’ll hear why Baltimore is willing to sacrifice long-term pitching control to maximize a win-now window around Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, and why Los Angeles is gambling its future on the health of a potential ace. The hosts walk through the cascading roster consequences for both teams and what this trade says about organizational identity, risk tolerance, and timelines.Houston occupies a different kind of crossroads. The episode digs into the Astros’ salary-shedding Dubón trade, the slow erosion of a once-dominant core, and why their entire winter strategy seems to orbit around a possible Pete Alonso pursuit. From luxury-tax math to potential trade chips like Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, you’ll get a clear picture of how a club tries to spend its way out of decline while still staying under the tax line. That naturally leads into a wide-angle look at the top of the market: Cody Bellinger’s New York tug-of-war, Alonso’s fit with the Red Sox and Astros, and Tarek Skubal as the trade ace whose availability is freezing the pitching market for arms like Joe Ryan and Pablo López.The hosts also explain how an unusually high rate of accepted qualifying offers has thrown gasoline on the financial chaos. Brandon Woodruff and Shota Imanaga taking one-year, $22 million deals radically alters the Brewers’ and Cubs’ budgets, tightening flexibility and reshaping who can realistically chase big names. Gleyber Torres and Trent Grisham staying put at premium prices force the Yankees to rethink their Bellinger push and make the non-tender deadline even more ruthless, as players like Camilo Doval, Mark Leiter Jr., Oswaldo Cabrera, Jonathan India, Gavin Lux, David Fry, and Joey Lucchesi are evaluated more like line items on a spreadsheet than familiar faces.From there, the conversation turns to the chess game of 40-man roster construction and the Rule 5 draft. The Mets’ decision to eat Frankie Montas’ salary to protect breakout outfielder Nick Morabito contrasts sharply with the Tigers’ agonizing choices over high-upside bats like Theron Lorenzo, Howie Lee, and Eduardo Valencia. The Pirates’ faith in an injured Jack Brannigan and the Braves’ willingness to expose a low-ceiling arm like Ian Mejia become case studies in how upside, health, and risk are weighted inside modern front offices.
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/baseball-podcast--6809512/support.
Listen to all of our podcast episodes here: Baseball Podcast
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/baseball-podcast--6809512/support.
Listen to all of our podcast episodes here: Baseball Podcast
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Baseball Podcast. It is November twentieth, and
if you follow Major League Baseball, you know this isn't
just the hot stove heating up.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Oh no, this is the pressure cooker.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
It's a pressure cooker moment of the off season calendar exactly.
All these deadlines are driving the action. They're forcing front
offices to make commitments that are going to shape their
rosters and their payrolls for the next few years.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
That's the critical distinction. Right there. We are, you know,
we're past the purely speculative rumor mill phase. We're into
the part where financial and contractual realities they bite. We
just saw it with a qualifying off or deadline for
surprising acceptances, and that immediately tightens up budgets across the league.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
And we've got the non tender deadline looming just days away.
That's another one that forces these really tough strategic financial decisions.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah, on players they might otherwise want to keep. It's
that volatility, you know, that's making the trade market move
at well breakneck speed right now.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
It really is. We have a massive amount of material
to sift through today. We're going to start with the
flurry of moves from Atlanta and Houston. Then there's that
true blockbuster trade between the Orioles and Angels that we
have to break down.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Oh, the risk versus control on that one is fascinating,
it is.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
And of course the big names Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonzo
and the starting pitcher everyone wants Kerk's Cooble.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
So our mission today is to really give you the
context and I think the financial clarity behind these transactions,
Like why is Baltimore willing to trade away four years
of control for one year of a slugger? How does
shedding you know, seven million dollars in salaries suddenly become
the most important move for a team chasing a three
hundred million dollar free agent. We're going to unpack those
(01:41):
strategic decisions and hopefully provide the insight you need to
understand what truly matters most in the league.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Right now, let's jump right in with the team that
always seems to operate ahead of the curve, the Atlanta Braves.
Their GM Alexanthopolos has this history of trying to secure
known commodities early ah to kind of insulate his team
from the chaos. Yeah, he hates getting caught in the
peak free agency market. He wants his guys locked in,
(02:07):
and he executed that philosophy immediately by locking down his
elite closer raise Elaglesias.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
This was a huge piece of business for them, and
it tells you a lot about where the market is
for those high leverage bullpen arms.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
It's a fantastic signal. Yeah, Iglesias re signed with the
Braves on a one year, sixteen million dollar deal and
that aav the annual average value. That is definitely at
the top end of what people projected.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
But it's a reflection of the demand.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Oh the intense demand.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
And when we talk about demand, we're talking about serious,
heavy hitting contenders who are all in on him.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Right. He reportedly turned down offers at that exact same
sixteen million dollar figure from both the Dodgers and the
Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
And the Mess and Oils were in there too heavily.
So when you see three or four serious contenders all
willing to pay that premium for just a single year
of relief work, it tells you everything about how front
offices value late game.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Security, especially heading into the final year of this current
CBA cycle.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
It also tells you about the confidence the Braves have
in him. Even though twenty twenty five is a bit
of an uneven season for him.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Well, the final stat line was good, a three point
twenty one er twenty nine saves, but that doesn't really
tell the whole story, does.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
It not at all. He started a little slow, but
then he just found his groove. Over his final forty
five outings of the season, his erra plummeted to an
incredible one point twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That dominance, especially late in the season when the game's
really mattered. That's what secured this massive contract. It was
an essential move for Atlanta, especially since their bullpen already
has some question marks.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Like Joejmenez recovering from shoulder surgery.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Exactly, you need that anchor at the back end, so securing.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
The closer was the anchor move. But then right after
Atlanta made a slightly more subtle strategic trade. They swapped
utility infielders with the Houston.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Astros Mauricio Dubon for Nick Allen.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
And this trade it really shines the light on what
contenders prioritize versus what you know, financially constrained teams need
to do.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Precisely, for Atlanta, this acquisition is all about defensive versatility
and having a reliable offensive floor off your bench.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Du Bone is a former Gold Glove winner. He swings
right handed. He can play second, third.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Short, and even give you emergency coverage in center field.
I mean that level of flexibility is pure gold for
a deep roster.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
And the offensive component is key here. Do Bone's bat
did decline a little bit in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Yeah, he hit point two four to one, not great, but.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
His floor is still higher than what the Braves typically
get from their deep preserves.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Absolutely, think about the scenarios he covers. He can spell
Ozzie Lbi's or Austin Riley to keep them fresh and
maybe most strategically, if the Braves are unable to land
their top target at shortstop, let's say Hassan Kims signed
somewhere else.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Do Don't gives them a capable, proven option at the position.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
It mitigates the panic. He's the insurance policy that allows
Nthopolis to operate with patients in the rest of the market.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Okay, now let's flip it. Let's look at the Houston
sidec where the financial motivation just becomes so explicit.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
This is a textbook salary dump it's designed to free
up margin money for a much, much bigger fish down
the line.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So Dubon was projected to earn what six or seven
million dollars in.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Arbitration, somewhere in that range. Yeah, So by trading him,
Houston immediately shaves that projected salary right off their ledger.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
And what they get back is Nick Allen, who is,
to be fair, an elite defender.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Oh, he's incredible with the glove. Few fielders in baseball
are better than him at shortstop.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But the offense is, to put it kindly, abysmal brutal.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Actually, Allen was easily the worst qualified hitter in baseball
last year.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Among players with four hundred or more played appearances in
twenty twenty five, right.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
That's right. He hit point two point one with zero
home runs zero in four hundred and sixteen played appearances.
You just cannot survive offensively with that in an everyday role.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So Houston saves six to seven million dollars, They get
a cost control, defensively pristine but cheaper utility guy.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
The trade isn't about improving the roster today, It's about
creating financial space for the expensive, necessary improvements they have
to make this offseason.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Which primarily means their pursuit of Pilanzo, which we'll get
to later.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Exactly, So, shedding seven million might sound small in the
grand scheme of a you know, two hundred million dollar payroll,
but when.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
You're trying to land a guy who's going to demand
thirty million a.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Year, every margin counts. It's all about staying under those
crucial lisury tax thresholds. It's the difference between being able
to offer Alanjo thirty two million AAV or only twenty
five million AAV. Every single dollar of flexibility gained from
a move like this, it can be immediately converted into
higher offers for their top targets.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Speaking of calculated risks, Atlanta also had the Davis Daniel experiment.
This one really demonstrates the razor thin margin between finding cheap,
reliable depth and well acquiring a player who just collapses
under pressure.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Daniel is an offseason pickup from the Angels for a
younger prospect Mitch Ferris, and the ration was sound. In
twenty twenty four with the Angels, Daniel had a solid
four point one six FIP fielding independent pitching, so.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
His defense wasn't carrying him not at all.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
And crucially, he had fantastic control. His walk rate was
below five percent. That profile just screamed solid, cheap fifth
starter or long reliever depth.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
But when he put on the Brave's uniform in twenty
twenty five, the wheels.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Just fell off completely. He only made three Big League
appearances and the control just vanished. His walk rate spiked
to over fifteen percent, his velocity dipped.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
It was just as bad in triple A.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
It was amplified in triple A his era FIP x FIP.
They were all above five point zero zero zero across
one hundred innings. The Braves just couldn't tolerate that kind
of drop off, so.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
The end result was him being outrighted and electing free agency.
The Braves basically gave up a prospect for a three
month rental that never panned out.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
It's a harsh lesson, but a necessary one. Acquiring reliable
depth is incredibly difficult. Front offices are constantly looking for
those diamonds in the rough, but often players like Daniel
who have one great trade, they just lose it.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Which really underscores the Orioles decision, which we're moving to
next to trade a high value prospect for a known quantity.
It's such a high stakes, aggressive move. So if the
Braves moves were all about calculated security, the trade between
the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels this was
desperation meeting ambition.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Absolutely. The Orioles traded former first round pitching prospect Grayson
Rodriguez for one year of slugger Taylor Ward.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
And this immediately shows you two organizations moving in totally different,
almost contradictory directions.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
This is a true blockbuster based on differing timelines for Baltimore,
a team that's been building up this young core. This
just screams maximum urgency. They are trading four years of
cost controlled, high upside pitching.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Rodriguez is controlled until twenty twenty nine, right for.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
A single year of tailor Ward, who's going to cost
them probably fourteen million dollars in arbitration.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
That is an aggressive win now calculation. You give up
four years of control for one year of a bat
and Ward is the thump they need. But they have
young outfielders like Colton Kowser and Heston Kijastad already in
the wings.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Well, the Oriole's internal clock is ringing loudly. Their winder
of contention is wide open now and they need proven
offensive production. Ward brings a high offensive floor, an immediate
production that maybe they don't trust from Kowser or Kerstad
yet in October.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
He's also very versatile.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Extremely he can play both corner outfield spots, handle dh Duty's.
It gives them flexibility. This move says we have pitching
depth in the miners and we need to maximize our
World Series chances while Adli Rutchman and Gunnar Henderson are
still on their rookie contracts okay.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
On the flip side, the Angels took on significant risk,
but for potentially massive.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Reward, a huge reward. They acquired a high upside pitcher
who has a major health history. I mean, Rodriguez is
a former top prospect with one hundred mile per hour
fastball and a wicked slider.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
But this is a big but he missed the entire
twenty twenty five season after getting hurt in twenty twenty
four and then having surgery.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
To remove bone spurs and their GM perrymnjan He acknowledges
this health gamble, but the appeal of getting four years
of potential ace level pitching control was just too enticing
to resist. The Angels need an identity, and high upside
pitching is a great place to start.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
So it's basically a bet that the surgery resolved the
underlying issue. Right.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
It's the hope. Rodriguez himself has been very optimistic. He
said the bone spurs were the root cause of the
issues that led to his lat injuries, and with them removed,
he's targeting a full recovery. He expects to be ready for.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Spring training, and if he returns to form, the.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Angels win this trade overwhelmingly. If he suffers another setback,
the Orioles look brilliant for trading him at his peak
prospect value.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
This trade also has immediate roster fallout for the Angels,
just you know, independent of Rodriguez's health, Ward was there
every day left fielder.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
And a crucial run producer. That fourteen million dollars salary
is now off the books, which min Asian has said
publicly allows them to pursue free agents more aggressively.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
That financial flexibility is critical because they have enormous holes
to fill. They desperately need another starting pitcher to anchor
that rotation.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
A rotation that outside of a few young arms is
looking pretty thin, and.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
The offense they lose wards backed. They need a starting outfielder,
probably a center fielder since Joe Adele has settled into.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Rite exactly with Mike Trout and Jorge Solaer more suited
for DH or limited outfield duties. The Angels need an
injection of defense and consistent offense. They freed up the
money to spend, but now they have to spend it
wisely to fill these major gaps.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
And the Angels, much like the Houston Astros, are in
that difficult spot where they're trying to spend their way
out of the decline.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, the Astros missed the playoffs in twenty twenty five,
which officially ended that remarkable eight year run.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
It felt inevitable, maybe, but it's still jarring to see
finishing eighty seven to seventy five, the steady decline in
wins from one hundred to ninety eighty eight and now
eighty seven, and it just shows that slow erosion.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Of their core and losing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker
last offseason was massive. Now all star Franberveldez hits free agency,
the cracks are definitely.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Showing their needs are incredibly specific. Health is a crisis.
Jord On Alvarez only played forty eight games, Josh Hayter
was hurt late, where An al Blanco was out until
late twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
The pitching staff looks very unstable outside of Hunter Brown,
who you know, he really showed some growth last year.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
And the offense finishing twenty first in runs scored and
fifteenth and slugging is just it's unacceptable for a team
with championship aspirations.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Even with a healthy Alvarez, they need a major power
injection to balance that lineup. And this is why Pete
Alonzo is such a perfect, almost mandatory fit for them.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Let's elaborate on that fit. Why Alonzo for Houston.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Well, it's the ballpark dimensions and the balance he provides.
Alonzo hitting balls into the short porch of the Crawford
boxes and left field is just a dream scenario for them.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
He provides immediate forty homer.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Production right and combined with Alvarez, it creates a formidable
lefty righty power combo in the heart of that order.
Getting Alonzo would instantly transform them from a bottom half
offense to a top five offense, assuming health elsewhere.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
But if they strike out on Alonzo, their need for
left handed bats is still dire. Their lineup is so
right heavy.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
They absolutely have to diversify their approach. If Alonzo doesn't sign,
they have to look at trade targets like Brendan Donovan
or Brandon Lowe. Both are left handed bats who could
immediately slot in at second base.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Which would allow jose L Tuove to potentially shift to
left field to mitigate some.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Injury risk and lock Alvarez into the DH spot. They
need that kind of switch up to keep pitching staffs honest.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
So the next layer of complexity for them is their
trade capital and the financial juggling. We talked about shedding
dubone salary, but what about major assets. Isaac Prades keeps
popping up in rumors.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
And GM Dana Brown has been vehemently denying those rumors.
He calls Parade as one of their best pitch watchers
crucial to their lineup.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Dictates that if you're going big for Alonzo, you need
to consolidate assets or clear even more salary.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Right, So if they keep Parades, they might need to
move veteran players. The more realistic trade ship I think
is Christian Walker.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Who will be thirty five next season, exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Trading him save salary and allows Houston to shift parades
to first base. That move clears the logistical path and
the financial space needed to aggressively pursue a massive contract
for Alonzo. It's a move that signals a true regime change.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
All right, Let's shift to the free agent market and
specifically the decisions that have already complicated the budgets for
half a dozen teams. The accepted qualifying offers.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, the acceptance rate this year was surprisingly high. It
injected a serious dose of uncertainty into the market. Four
QoS accepted that immediately took four high value players off
the board, and committed over eighty million dollars in guaranteed
salary for next season.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
Let's start with Brandon Woodruff. He accepted the Brewers offer
twenty two million dollars for one year, even after he
declined his mutual option.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
And twenty two million dollars is just a massive figure
for the Brewers organization. You called it uncharted territory for them.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
It is historic for Milwaukee because their total annual payroll
usually hovers around what one hundred to one hundred and
twenty million.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Right, Committing twenty two million dollars to a single pitcher
is an enormous percentage of their total budget. It's a
fifth of their typical spending power for one player.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
And he's coming off right shoulder surgery and a last train,
so it's a high.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Risk commitment it is, But his follow up appointments were
successful and the organization believes he can anchor that rotation
in the second half of twenty twenty six, so they
justified the expense.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
It's a sign they're serious about winning, but it instantly
eliminates flexibility for other major signings.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
That's exactly it. That twenty two million is now unavailable
for a much needed hitter or a depth starter. They
are betting on internal improvements and Wooder's health.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
But the acceptance that really rattled the divisional landscape was
show to Immenaga taking the Cup qualifying offer.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Oh, that decision was a strategic curveball the Cubs did
not see coming. The prevailing assumption was that Emanaga would
decline and seek a multi year deal, probably in the
range of, you know, three years, seventy million.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
So now the Codes bring back a strong frontline starter,
which is great competitively, but.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
It immediately eats up about twenty two million dollars of
their budget.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
And how does that affect their pursuit of other high
impad guys like Michael King or Dylan Cease.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
It fundamentally limits their path forward. It forces a serious
negotiation with the luxury tax threshold. If the Cubs have
Amanaga and then immediately pivot to acquiring another major starter,
they're almost guaranteed to breach the next luxury tax tier.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Which means higher penalties lost draft capital.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Exactly, they have to be far more selective now. They
might prioritize a cheaper high upside reliever or a mid
tier offensive upgrade rather than entering a bidding war for Cease,
which would push them deep into penalty territory.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And as you pointed out, their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds,
have to be thrilled that the Cubs are momentarily off balance.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
It creates a crucial window of opportunity for them. If
the Cubs are busy recalculating their budget, the Reds can
potentially control the pace of the offseason.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
We also saw gliber Torrez and Trent Grisham accept their QoS.
Grisham's was over twenty two million.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
For the Yankees, and these are massive numbers for players
who are not guaranteed superstars. The Yankees are pleased to
retain a reliable piece in Grisham, but committing that twenty
two million now absolutely impacts their aggressive pursuit of Cody Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Okay, let's talk about the true top tier of the market.
Cody Bellinger. He remains the premier position player free agent,
and this New York rivalry is shaping up to be
the story of his free agency.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
The Yankees are the clear favorites full stop. Bellinger had
a tremendous twenty twenty five campaign. He proved he's back
to elite form.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
He at point two seven to two slug twenty nine
home runs drove in ninety eight.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
He is the versatile left handed offensive for the Yankees
desperately need in the middle of their lineup. Rival execs
view him as the most valuable remaining.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Bat, but the New York Mets and Steve Cohen are
just lurking, ready to spoil the party if.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
The Yankees hesitate, either over the years on the contract
or because of luxury tax concerns. After Grisham's acceptance. The
Mets are ready to strike. Cohen has shown a willingness
to swoop in and steal a star.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
And Bellinger fits the mess shifting identity perfectly. They need athleticism,
contact skills, high quality.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Defense, especially if they lose their other star slugger Pete Alonzo.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Which takes us right to Alonzo. If the Mets can't
keep the polar Bear, where does he land.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
The Boston Red Sox have been reported as the strongest
contender for Alonzo. If he leaves Queens. That is a
massive statement of intent from the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
His power would play perfectly at Fenway.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
Oh absolutely, and as we discussed, the Astros view him
as an essential prime fit for their power starved lineup
because of the Crawford boxes. This is a three team
race with incredible urgency from all sides.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Switching to pitching, the hottest name on the trade market
and arguably the most impactful pitcher available, is the two
time al Cy Young winner Trek Scuball. The Tigers are
gauging his value and.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
The interest is bordering on frantic. Scooball is the trade ace.
Insider reports have identified the Mets as a perfect landing spot,
largely because Steve Cohen doesn't just want an ACE, he
wants the ACE.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
And he's willing to pay the massive prospect capital and
then immediately offer an extension exactly.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
The Red Sox are also heavily in the mix. Scooball's
presence on the trade block is slowing down the entire
pitching market.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Which brings us to the Minnesota Twins, who have two
coass Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, both potentially.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Available, but their trade market is completely dependent on Scooball.
The Twins are navigating an ownership transition, complicating their long
term spending plans, and.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
They have these two incredibly valuable, cost controlled.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Pitchers and national reports strongly suggests that they will deal one,
but not both, before their team control runs out in
twenty twenty seven. But no team is going to offer
a premium package for Ryan or Lopez until the Schoobol
situation is resolved.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Why does Scooble's market specifically depress their value?
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Because if a team can acquire a proven two times
cy young winner like Scooball, they're taking themselves out of
the bidding for that next tier. Ryan is high value
but Lopez's value is already a little depressed due to
health concerns. If the Mets or Red Sox land schooble,
the demand for Ryan immediately falls and the Twins have
to accept a lesser return.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
So the market's just in.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
A holding pattern waiting for Detroit.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Finally, let's analyze the closer market, specifically the tier just
below the elite guys like Edwin Diez. Devin Williams is
creating a lot of chatter.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Especially about a possible reunion with the Yankees. Williams had
a surprisingly tumultuous twenty twenty five. He had a four
point seventy nine er, lost his closing duties in late July.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
On the surface, those numbers are terrible.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
They are, but if you dig into the underlying metrics,
his elite level stuff is still there. His strand rate,
which is the percentage of runners he leaves on base,
plummeted from a career high of eighty three percent to
just fifty five percent.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
So that screams massive bad luck exactly.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Teams are viewing him as a high upside BI low candidate.
The Yankees are discussing bringing him back on a team
friendly deal, but other teams like the Dodgers, Reds and
Red Sox are connected. They see an opportunity here, and.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
The Orioles, despite trading for Ward, they still desperately need
bullpen help.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Their bullpen has been gutted by injuries and trades. They're
in a dire position. They are actively hunting for high
leverage options to establish a committee.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Approach, so guys like Kyle Finnegan.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Finnegan who benefited from sharing duties in Detroit, or they
might look at established names like Pete Fairbanks or Ryan
Helsley to solidify that committee heading into spring training.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Okay, as we approach Friday's non tender deadline, the pressure
to make these painful financial decisions is just mounting. This
is the deadline that forces teams to weigh a player's
projected arbitration salary against their actual performance and.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
The value of their forty man roster spot. This is
where marginal decisions become existential for clubs trying to manage
the luxury tax. Even a few million dollars saved can
open up space for a much bigger signing.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Well, let's look at the Yankees. Despite their enormous wealth,
they are strategically trying to clear.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Space, and the biggest name facing a tough decision is
high salary reliever Camillo Davall, who's projected to get six
point six million dollars in arbitration.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
That's significant number.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
It is his performance just wasn't consistently strong enough to
justify that salary for a non closer role, especially if
the Yankees are planning on acquiring a high impact.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Reliever or even resigning Devin Williams.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Exactly, by non tendering Doval, they save that six point
six million, which can then be immediately reallocated. It's a
ruthless calculation based purely on opportunity cost.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
They're also looking at Mark Leader Junior projected at three million,
and Oswalda Cobrera at one point two million cabres.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Number is small, but his versatility might not be enough
to save him. The Yankees have a crowded infield, and
if they can use that forty man spot for a
higher upside pitching prospect, they might just cut ties.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
The dilemma facing the Kansas City Royals at second base
perfectly illustrates the burden of bad contracts for small market teams.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Oh this is a classic resource allocation problem. They are
struggling with what to do about Jonathan India and Michael Massey.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
If they keep both, they're committing nearly ten million dollars
to a second base platoon that was frankly below replacement
level in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
And for the Royals, who operate on a tight budget,
ten million tied up in below average production is just crippling.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
So what are the painful options?
Speaker 2 (23:45):
Well, non tendering India would free up most of that salary,
but it leaves a massive hole at second Non tendering
Massie saves less money, but he has more team control remaining.
They have to decide whether to eat a ten million
or risk losing a potential trade asset.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Across the league, the Cincinnati Reds face a similar situation
with former top prospect.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Gavin lux Looks is projected to earn five million dollars.
That is a steep price for a player who ended
twenty twenty five as a below replacement level contributor. He
hit point two six' nine with only five home.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
Runs and the defensive shift is the killer. Here, Right
he's primarily a left fielder, now.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Which severely diminishes his value compared to when he was
an infielder with a crowded. Outfield The reds will almost
certainly non tender. Him they'll bet that five million is
better spent.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Elsewhere The guardians have an agonizing decision with the fan
Favorite David.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Frye he's a realistic candidate to be non, tendered even
though his salary is low at one point two. Million
the problem is his production just isn't worth a forty
man spot right. Now he posted a negative war and
after an elbow, injury his defense behind the plate became completely.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Unplayable they just can't carry, that not when.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
They need those spots For rule five protection and out
on The West, coast The giants have to make a
call On Joey lakei's.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Who's projected a two. Million he was actually pretty solid
in twenty twenty, five a three point seven to six
era he, was but.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
The fact that he's still listed as a non tender
risk just underscores how acutely teams are managing their relief core.
Budgets if they see a, cheaper higher upside minor leaguer
they need to, Protect lukisi becomes.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Expendable moving past the non tender crunch that forty man
roster construction is also being fiercely driven by the Upcoming
rule five.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Draft teams are racing to clear space to protect their
highest upside. Prospects we saw a brilliant move from The.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Mets, here The Frankie montas.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Move, yeah they designated and Released, montass who's owed seventeen
million next year but is out due to ucl. Surgery
they immediately used that spot to select the contract of
Outfielder Nick.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Moribido so The mets decided that forty man spot was
far more valuable than the sunk cause Of montass's, salary.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
And morbito is a high reward. Protection he's got plus,
speed a strong, bat hit point three to six to
two in The Fall. League he would have absolutely been
claimed in The rule five.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
Draft now contrast that with the difficult decisions facing The Detroit.
Tigers they have three Critical rule five eligible, prospects.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
And the toughest one centers on switch hitting Catcher Theron.
Lorenzo he has rare seventy grade, power which is truly.
Elite if The tigers expose, him he is guaranteed to be.
Selected they have to protect.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
Him then there's infielder how You.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Lee lee's a disciplined, hitter had a strong double a,
run but he's blocked in the. System given that he
was acquired in The Michael lorenzen, trade they're unlikely to expose.
Him they invested assets in.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
Him and the final piece of their dilemma Is Eduardo.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Valencia valencia is a catcher first baseman whose power exploded
in twenty twenty five with twenty four, homers but his
catching defense is poor and he's completely blocked at first
base By Spencer.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Torkelsen so do you dedicate a valuable forty man spot
to a backup first baseman with defensive limitations or do
you risk exposing.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Him it's a tough call because that forty man spot
is just so.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
Precious we're seeing organizations prioritize protection based on, upside even
health as a. Factor The pirates Protected Jack brannigan even
though he suffered a torn labor.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
Right that decision signals their faith in his. Upside they
view him as a foundational, piece even if he misses
the start of next.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Season, conversely The braves are likely exposing right Hander Ian
magea despite his two point six y' to two.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Era In DOUBLE, a and the reason is his stuff.
Profile it lacks high velocity and bat missing, ability which
gives him a lower ceiling and makes him less likely
to stick on A rule five roster for a full.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Season let's zoom out now and examine the broader organizational
changes sweeping across the, league starting with The Saint Louis,
cardinals who are undergoing a major culture shift under their
New president Of Baseball, Operations Jane.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Bloomloom's arrival is leading to immediate structural. Changes we saw
the firing Of Russ, steinhorn their former minor league hitting.
Coordinator steinhorn himself has spoken very highly Of bloom's intelligence and.
Competitiveness he Believes bloom will.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Use his experience to return The cardinals to. Prominence right this.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
Is about changing the fhilosophy from, within supplementing that Traditional
cardinals farm system with high value outside, talent.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
And steinhorn also provided some insight into their internal, talent
specifically touting the potential OF Jj.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Weatherholdt weatherhold is viewed internally as a bonafide star in the.
Making his impending, arrival though only highlights The cardinal's immediate
glaring need the outfield.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
Following the likely trade Of Brendan, donovan their outfield situation
is described internally as rather.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Bad that's putting it. Lightly they are heading toward opening
day with zero reliable.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Outfielders this desperate need forces them to consider high RISK
bilo candidates Like Michael.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Conforto confordo is the classic reclamation. Project he had a truly,
terrible below replacement level season in twenty twenty five with The.
Dodgers they actually dropped him from their playoff, Roster.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
But The cardinals are looking at his. History he was
a very good hitter as recently as twenty twenty. Four he.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
Was he posted a one TWELVE wrc plus dist that's
twelve percent better than league average after you adjust for.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
Ballpark so the argument is they're betting seventeen million on one,
year hoping his bat bounces back to twenty twenty four
levels and then he becomes a trade ship at the.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Deadline that's exactly. It he's a left handed, hitter which they.
Need it's a one year, gamble but it's a high risk.
One his defense and left field fell off a cliff last.
Year if the bat doesn't return to, form he is.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Unplayable beyond the. Clubs Major League baseball is structurally changing
how we consume the. Product finalizing these massive new media
rights deals totals nearly eight hundred million dollars annually over
the next three.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
Years this is a significant shift in viewing habits and revenue. STREAMS,
nbc primarily Through, peacock has taken Over Sunday Night baseball
and secured the rights to The Wildcard. Series they're paying
around two hundred million a, year so that.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
Puts Premium Sunday night content behind a streaming.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Paywall it, does and then There's netflix jumping into live baseball.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Action you have the Home Run, derby.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
The derby and two additional live games for about fifty million.
Annually this just showed MLB's commitment to tapping into these
massive non traditional.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Platforms, MEANWHILE, espn which has been the cornerstone of national,
broadcasts they lost all postseason games and The. Derby they.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Did what they retained WAS MLB tv, rights the crucial
out of market streaming, service and a thirty game midweek.
Package they're paying five hundred and fifty million for this
new bundle.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
And crucially they're also handling in market streaming for six
specific teams whose broadcast rights are now produced BY mlb, itself.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
The, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Guardians, twins And.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Mariners let's discuss the financial consequence, though because while eight
hundred million sounds, ENORMOUS mlb reportedly took a significant haircut
compared to the previous deals they.
Speaker 2 (30:46):
Did MLB's total national rights revenue is projected to be
about three hundred million dollars, annually less than WHAT espn
was paying for its previous full, package.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
And that reduction in national revenue has significant long term.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Implications doesn't it oh absolutely that three hundred million reduction
means less national revenue is flowing into the central distribution.
Pool since revenue sharing is based on total league, revenue
this puts pressure on, teams especially those in smaller, markets.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
Who rely on those national checks to offset local revenue. Deficiencies.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Right while the effect isn't, immediate it increases the urgency
for smaller market teams to maximize their LOCAL tv. Contracts
it further justifies why we see teams like The royals
making brutal cost saving decisions on players Like Jonathan. India
the financial margins are just becoming thinner for everyone outside
the top few.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
Markets that is a deep. Insight before we wrap, up
let's quickly cover some of the fun and interesting news
items surrounding The World series Champion.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Dodgers Mooki, betts who is thirty, three now wrapped up
his twelfth season and his second Straight World series, win
even with a down year at the plate where he
hit zero point two five.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Eight he's just a veteran, leader and the high praise
for sho Hey otani. Continues he got his Second World
series title and Fourth end.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Award Lebron james even Compared otawanni's dominance in baseball To
stiff And curry's revolutionary influence in THE, nba.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
Which is about as high as praise.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Gets it. Is and if you're looking for a piece
of that, history the auction market is already. Hot artifacts
From game, Seven Will smith's home run balls bid at
one hundred and thirty thousand dollars And Miguel rojas's homer
ball is at seventy. Thousand.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Incredible looking, ahead we have the Film, homecoming The tokyo
series chronicling That Dodgers cubs season opener In. Japan that's
going to be.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Great it really highlights the globalization of the, game and
closer to, HOME mlb is bringing back The field Of
dreams game In, Dyersville iowa On august, thirteenth twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Six Minnesota twins and The Philadelphia, phillies a lovely nod
to tradition it. Is and finally we had that fascinating
hypothetical where a fan acting as The ROCKIES, gm tried
to rebuild the.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Franchise it was an interesting case. Study the HYPOTHETICAL gm
Signed Rhys hoskins to a three, year thirty point six million.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Dollar, deal hoping Core feld would boost his.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Power, right and then dramatically Claimed Royce lewis off waivers
from The. Twins in that, simulation The rockies finished the
off season adding seven point seven war which was second
only to the yankees eight point two war.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Game it just shows that, aggressive high upside, moves even
if they carry, risk can drastically change a team's. OUTLOOK
a bold thought experiment for franchise that desperately needs. Momentum
what an intense week of transactions and it's all driven
less by rumor and more by these ironclad. Deadlines the
pace of movement around This november twentieth, timeline specifically the
(33:34):
non tender crunch and The rule five protection. Efforts it
just proves that financial pressures dictate.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Action the key takeaway for me is the stark separation
we're seeing between the contenders and those still. Rebuilding The
orioles were willing to move four years of cost controlled
pitching for one year of immediate.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Impact while The angels were desperate to absorb that high
risk control.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Exactly and meanwhile you have The astros and The yankees
maneuvering around the actions of millions of dollars so they
can afford the next massive. Star the urgency is just.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Palpable and those accepted qualifying, offers especially show To immanaga's
surprise acceptance by The cubs that is undeniably tightened the
perse strings for the top. Spenders it's making their next
decision significantly, harder.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Which raises an important question for, you the listener To,
mullover given the surprising impact of those accepted QoS on
team budgets and, flexibility forcing clubs like The cubs And
yankees to recalculate what percentage of the remaining major free
agents Your, bellinger's Your, alonzo's Your Valdize's do you think
(34:38):
we'll actually sign before the end of the calendar.
Speaker 1 (34:40):
Year that's a great. Question will the urgency of spring
training force them to sign, anyway or will the titan
perse strings drag this market well Into.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
January it's going to be fascinating to.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Watch that's a great thought to close. On the dominoes
have started, falling but it sounds like the biggest ones
might be stuck until the new. Year we'll be tracking
all the moves and deadlines right here year on The Baseball.
Podcast we appreciate you joining us for this. Analysis until next,
time
Welcome to the Baseball Podcast. It is November twentieth, and
if you follow Major League Baseball, you know this isn't
just the hot stove heating up.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Oh no, this is the pressure cooker.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
It's a pressure cooker moment of the off season calendar exactly.
All these deadlines are driving the action. They're forcing front
offices to make commitments that are going to shape their
rosters and their payrolls for the next few years.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
That's the critical distinction. Right there. We are, you know,
we're past the purely speculative rumor mill phase. We're into
the part where financial and contractual realities they bite. We
just saw it with a qualifying off or deadline for
surprising acceptances, and that immediately tightens up budgets across the league.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
And we've got the non tender deadline looming just days away.
That's another one that forces these really tough strategic financial decisions.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah, on players they might otherwise want to keep. It's
that volatility, you know, that's making the trade market move
at well breakneck speed right now.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
It really is. We have a massive amount of material
to sift through today. We're going to start with the
flurry of moves from Atlanta and Houston. Then there's that
true blockbuster trade between the Orioles and Angels that we
have to break down.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Oh, the risk versus control on that one is fascinating,
it is.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
And of course the big names Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonzo
and the starting pitcher everyone wants Kerk's Cooble.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
So our mission today is to really give you the
context and I think the financial clarity behind these transactions,
Like why is Baltimore willing to trade away four years
of control for one year of a slugger? How does
shedding you know, seven million dollars in salaries suddenly become
the most important move for a team chasing a three
hundred million dollar free agent. We're going to unpack those
(01:41):
strategic decisions and hopefully provide the insight you need to
understand what truly matters most in the league.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Right now, let's jump right in with the team that
always seems to operate ahead of the curve, the Atlanta Braves.
Their GM Alexanthopolos has this history of trying to secure
known commodities early ah to kind of insulate his team
from the chaos. Yeah, he hates getting caught in the
peak free agency market. He wants his guys locked in,
(02:07):
and he executed that philosophy immediately by locking down his
elite closer raise Elaglesias.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
This was a huge piece of business for them, and
it tells you a lot about where the market is
for those high leverage bullpen arms.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
It's a fantastic signal. Yeah, Iglesias re signed with the
Braves on a one year, sixteen million dollar deal and
that aav the annual average value. That is definitely at
the top end of what people projected.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
But it's a reflection of the demand.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Oh the intense demand.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
And when we talk about demand, we're talking about serious,
heavy hitting contenders who are all in on him.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Right. He reportedly turned down offers at that exact same
sixteen million dollar figure from both the Dodgers and the
Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
And the Mess and Oils were in there too heavily.
So when you see three or four serious contenders all
willing to pay that premium for just a single year
of relief work, it tells you everything about how front
offices value late game.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Security, especially heading into the final year of this current
CBA cycle.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
It also tells you about the confidence the Braves have
in him. Even though twenty twenty five is a bit
of an uneven season for him.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Well, the final stat line was good, a three point
twenty one er twenty nine saves, but that doesn't really
tell the whole story, does.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
It not at all. He started a little slow, but
then he just found his groove. Over his final forty
five outings of the season, his erra plummeted to an
incredible one point twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That dominance, especially late in the season when the game's
really mattered. That's what secured this massive contract. It was
an essential move for Atlanta, especially since their bullpen already
has some question marks.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Like Joejmenez recovering from shoulder surgery.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Exactly, you need that anchor at the back end, so securing.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
The closer was the anchor move. But then right after
Atlanta made a slightly more subtle strategic trade. They swapped
utility infielders with the Houston.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Astros Mauricio Dubon for Nick Allen.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
And this trade it really shines the light on what
contenders prioritize versus what you know, financially constrained teams need
to do.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Precisely, for Atlanta, this acquisition is all about defensive versatility
and having a reliable offensive floor off your bench.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Du Bone is a former Gold Glove winner. He swings
right handed. He can play second, third.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Short, and even give you emergency coverage in center field.
I mean that level of flexibility is pure gold for
a deep roster.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
And the offensive component is key here. Do Bone's bat
did decline a little bit in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Yeah, he hit point two four to one, not great, but.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
His floor is still higher than what the Braves typically
get from their deep preserves.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Absolutely, think about the scenarios he covers. He can spell
Ozzie Lbi's or Austin Riley to keep them fresh and
maybe most strategically, if the Braves are unable to land
their top target at shortstop, let's say Hassan Kims signed
somewhere else.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Do Don't gives them a capable, proven option at the position.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
It mitigates the panic. He's the insurance policy that allows
Nthopolis to operate with patients in the rest of the market.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Okay, now let's flip it. Let's look at the Houston
sidec where the financial motivation just becomes so explicit.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
This is a textbook salary dump it's designed to free
up margin money for a much, much bigger fish down
the line.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So Dubon was projected to earn what six or seven
million dollars in.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Arbitration, somewhere in that range. Yeah, So by trading him,
Houston immediately shaves that projected salary right off their ledger.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
And what they get back is Nick Allen, who is,
to be fair, an elite defender.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Oh, he's incredible with the glove. Few fielders in baseball
are better than him at shortstop.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But the offense is, to put it kindly, abysmal brutal.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Actually, Allen was easily the worst qualified hitter in baseball
last year.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Among players with four hundred or more played appearances in
twenty twenty five, right.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
That's right. He hit point two point one with zero
home runs zero in four hundred and sixteen played appearances.
You just cannot survive offensively with that in an everyday role.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So Houston saves six to seven million dollars, They get
a cost control, defensively pristine but cheaper utility guy.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
The trade isn't about improving the roster today, It's about
creating financial space for the expensive, necessary improvements they have
to make this offseason.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Which primarily means their pursuit of Pilanzo, which we'll get
to later.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Exactly, So, shedding seven million might sound small in the
grand scheme of a you know, two hundred million dollar payroll,
but when.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
You're trying to land a guy who's going to demand
thirty million a.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Year, every margin counts. It's all about staying under those
crucial lisury tax thresholds. It's the difference between being able
to offer Alanjo thirty two million AAV or only twenty
five million AAV. Every single dollar of flexibility gained from
a move like this, it can be immediately converted into
higher offers for their top targets.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Speaking of calculated risks, Atlanta also had the Davis Daniel experiment.
This one really demonstrates the razor thin margin between finding cheap,
reliable depth and well acquiring a player who just collapses
under pressure.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Daniel is an offseason pickup from the Angels for a
younger prospect Mitch Ferris, and the ration was sound. In
twenty twenty four with the Angels, Daniel had a solid
four point one six FIP fielding independent pitching, so.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
His defense wasn't carrying him not at all.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
And crucially, he had fantastic control. His walk rate was
below five percent. That profile just screamed solid, cheap fifth
starter or long reliever depth.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
But when he put on the Brave's uniform in twenty
twenty five, the wheels.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Just fell off completely. He only made three Big League
appearances and the control just vanished. His walk rate spiked
to over fifteen percent, his velocity dipped.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
It was just as bad in triple A.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
It was amplified in triple A his era FIP x FIP.
They were all above five point zero zero zero across
one hundred innings. The Braves just couldn't tolerate that kind
of drop off, so.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
The end result was him being outrighted and electing free agency.
The Braves basically gave up a prospect for a three
month rental that never panned out.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
It's a harsh lesson, but a necessary one. Acquiring reliable
depth is incredibly difficult. Front offices are constantly looking for
those diamonds in the rough, but often players like Daniel
who have one great trade, they just lose it.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Which really underscores the Orioles decision, which we're moving to
next to trade a high value prospect for a known quantity.
It's such a high stakes, aggressive move. So if the
Braves moves were all about calculated security, the trade between
the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels this was
desperation meeting ambition.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Absolutely. The Orioles traded former first round pitching prospect Grayson
Rodriguez for one year of slugger Taylor Ward.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
And this immediately shows you two organizations moving in totally different,
almost contradictory directions.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
This is a true blockbuster based on differing timelines for Baltimore,
a team that's been building up this young core. This
just screams maximum urgency. They are trading four years of
cost controlled, high upside pitching.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Rodriguez is controlled until twenty twenty nine, right for.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
A single year of tailor Ward, who's going to cost
them probably fourteen million dollars in arbitration.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
That is an aggressive win now calculation. You give up
four years of control for one year of a bat
and Ward is the thump they need. But they have
young outfielders like Colton Kowser and Heston Kijastad already in
the wings.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Well, the Oriole's internal clock is ringing loudly. Their winder
of contention is wide open now and they need proven
offensive production. Ward brings a high offensive floor, an immediate
production that maybe they don't trust from Kowser or Kerstad
yet in October.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
He's also very versatile.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Extremely he can play both corner outfield spots, handle dh Duty's.
It gives them flexibility. This move says we have pitching
depth in the miners and we need to maximize our
World Series chances while Adli Rutchman and Gunnar Henderson are
still on their rookie contracts okay.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
On the flip side, the Angels took on significant risk,
but for potentially massive.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Reward, a huge reward. They acquired a high upside pitcher
who has a major health history. I mean, Rodriguez is
a former top prospect with one hundred mile per hour
fastball and a wicked slider.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
But this is a big but he missed the entire
twenty twenty five season after getting hurt in twenty twenty
four and then having surgery.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
To remove bone spurs and their GM perrymnjan He acknowledges
this health gamble, but the appeal of getting four years
of potential ace level pitching control was just too enticing
to resist. The Angels need an identity, and high upside
pitching is a great place to start.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
So it's basically a bet that the surgery resolved the
underlying issue. Right.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
It's the hope. Rodriguez himself has been very optimistic. He
said the bone spurs were the root cause of the
issues that led to his lat injuries, and with them removed,
he's targeting a full recovery. He expects to be ready for.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Spring training, and if he returns to form, the.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Angels win this trade overwhelmingly. If he suffers another setback,
the Orioles look brilliant for trading him at his peak
prospect value.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
This trade also has immediate roster fallout for the Angels,
just you know, independent of Rodriguez's health, Ward was there
every day left fielder.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
And a crucial run producer. That fourteen million dollars salary
is now off the books, which min Asian has said
publicly allows them to pursue free agents more aggressively.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
That financial flexibility is critical because they have enormous holes
to fill. They desperately need another starting pitcher to anchor
that rotation.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
A rotation that outside of a few young arms is
looking pretty thin, and.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
The offense they lose wards backed. They need a starting outfielder,
probably a center fielder since Joe Adele has settled into.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Rite exactly with Mike Trout and Jorge Solaer more suited
for DH or limited outfield duties. The Angels need an
injection of defense and consistent offense. They freed up the
money to spend, but now they have to spend it
wisely to fill these major gaps.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
And the Angels, much like the Houston Astros, are in
that difficult spot where they're trying to spend their way
out of the decline.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, the Astros missed the playoffs in twenty twenty five,
which officially ended that remarkable eight year run.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
It felt inevitable, maybe, but it's still jarring to see
finishing eighty seven to seventy five, the steady decline in
wins from one hundred to ninety eighty eight and now
eighty seven, and it just shows that slow erosion.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Of their core and losing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker
last offseason was massive. Now all star Franberveldez hits free agency,
the cracks are definitely.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Showing their needs are incredibly specific. Health is a crisis.
Jord On Alvarez only played forty eight games, Josh Hayter
was hurt late, where An al Blanco was out until
late twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
The pitching staff looks very unstable outside of Hunter Brown,
who you know, he really showed some growth last year.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
And the offense finishing twenty first in runs scored and
fifteenth and slugging is just it's unacceptable for a team
with championship aspirations.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Even with a healthy Alvarez, they need a major power
injection to balance that lineup. And this is why Pete
Alonzo is such a perfect, almost mandatory fit for them.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Let's elaborate on that fit. Why Alonzo for Houston.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Well, it's the ballpark dimensions and the balance he provides.
Alonzo hitting balls into the short porch of the Crawford
boxes and left field is just a dream scenario for them.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
He provides immediate forty homer.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Production right and combined with Alvarez, it creates a formidable
lefty righty power combo in the heart of that order.
Getting Alonzo would instantly transform them from a bottom half
offense to a top five offense, assuming health elsewhere.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
But if they strike out on Alonzo, their need for
left handed bats is still dire. Their lineup is so
right heavy.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
They absolutely have to diversify their approach. If Alonzo doesn't sign,
they have to look at trade targets like Brendan Donovan
or Brandon Lowe. Both are left handed bats who could
immediately slot in at second base.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Which would allow jose L Tuove to potentially shift to
left field to mitigate some.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Injury risk and lock Alvarez into the DH spot. They
need that kind of switch up to keep pitching staffs honest.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
So the next layer of complexity for them is their
trade capital and the financial juggling. We talked about shedding
dubone salary, but what about major assets. Isaac Prades keeps
popping up in rumors.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
And GM Dana Brown has been vehemently denying those rumors.
He calls Parade as one of their best pitch watchers
crucial to their lineup.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Dictates that if you're going big for Alonzo, you need
to consolidate assets or clear even more salary.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Right, So if they keep Parades, they might need to
move veteran players. The more realistic trade ship I think
is Christian Walker.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Who will be thirty five next season, exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Trading him save salary and allows Houston to shift parades
to first base. That move clears the logistical path and
the financial space needed to aggressively pursue a massive contract
for Alonzo. It's a move that signals a true regime change.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
All right, Let's shift to the free agent market and
specifically the decisions that have already complicated the budgets for
half a dozen teams. The accepted qualifying offers.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, the acceptance rate this year was surprisingly high. It
injected a serious dose of uncertainty into the market. Four
QoS accepted that immediately took four high value players off
the board, and committed over eighty million dollars in guaranteed
salary for next season.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
Let's start with Brandon Woodruff. He accepted the Brewers offer
twenty two million dollars for one year, even after he
declined his mutual option.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
And twenty two million dollars is just a massive figure
for the Brewers organization. You called it uncharted territory for them.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
It is historic for Milwaukee because their total annual payroll
usually hovers around what one hundred to one hundred and
twenty million.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Right, Committing twenty two million dollars to a single pitcher
is an enormous percentage of their total budget. It's a
fifth of their typical spending power for one player.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
And he's coming off right shoulder surgery and a last train,
so it's a high.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Risk commitment it is, But his follow up appointments were
successful and the organization believes he can anchor that rotation
in the second half of twenty twenty six, so they
justified the expense.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
It's a sign they're serious about winning, but it instantly
eliminates flexibility for other major signings.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
That's exactly it. That twenty two million is now unavailable
for a much needed hitter or a depth starter. They
are betting on internal improvements and Wooder's health.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
But the acceptance that really rattled the divisional landscape was
show to Immenaga taking the Cup qualifying offer.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Oh, that decision was a strategic curveball the Cubs did
not see coming. The prevailing assumption was that Emanaga would
decline and seek a multi year deal, probably in the
range of, you know, three years, seventy million.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
So now the Codes bring back a strong frontline starter,
which is great competitively, but.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
It immediately eats up about twenty two million dollars of
their budget.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
And how does that affect their pursuit of other high
impad guys like Michael King or Dylan Cease.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
It fundamentally limits their path forward. It forces a serious
negotiation with the luxury tax threshold. If the Cubs have
Amanaga and then immediately pivot to acquiring another major starter,
they're almost guaranteed to breach the next luxury tax tier.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Which means higher penalties lost draft capital.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Exactly, they have to be far more selective now. They
might prioritize a cheaper high upside reliever or a mid
tier offensive upgrade rather than entering a bidding war for Cease,
which would push them deep into penalty territory.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And as you pointed out, their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds,
have to be thrilled that the Cubs are momentarily off balance.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
It creates a crucial window of opportunity for them. If
the Cubs are busy recalculating their budget, the Reds can
potentially control the pace of the offseason.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
We also saw gliber Torrez and Trent Grisham accept their QoS.
Grisham's was over twenty two million.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
For the Yankees, and these are massive numbers for players
who are not guaranteed superstars. The Yankees are pleased to
retain a reliable piece in Grisham, but committing that twenty
two million now absolutely impacts their aggressive pursuit of Cody Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Okay, let's talk about the true top tier of the market.
Cody Bellinger. He remains the premier position player free agent,
and this New York rivalry is shaping up to be
the story of his free agency.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
The Yankees are the clear favorites full stop. Bellinger had
a tremendous twenty twenty five campaign. He proved he's back
to elite form.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
He at point two seven to two slug twenty nine
home runs drove in ninety eight.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
He is the versatile left handed offensive for the Yankees
desperately need in the middle of their lineup. Rival execs
view him as the most valuable remaining.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Bat, but the New York Mets and Steve Cohen are
just lurking, ready to spoil the party if.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
The Yankees hesitate, either over the years on the contract
or because of luxury tax concerns. After Grisham's acceptance. The
Mets are ready to strike. Cohen has shown a willingness
to swoop in and steal a star.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
And Bellinger fits the mess shifting identity perfectly. They need athleticism,
contact skills, high quality.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Defense, especially if they lose their other star slugger Pete Alonzo.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Which takes us right to Alonzo. If the Mets can't
keep the polar Bear, where does he land.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
The Boston Red Sox have been reported as the strongest
contender for Alonzo. If he leaves Queens. That is a
massive statement of intent from the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
His power would play perfectly at Fenway.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
Oh absolutely, and as we discussed, the Astros view him
as an essential prime fit for their power starved lineup
because of the Crawford boxes. This is a three team
race with incredible urgency from all sides.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Switching to pitching, the hottest name on the trade market
and arguably the most impactful pitcher available, is the two
time al Cy Young winner Trek Scuball. The Tigers are
gauging his value and.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
The interest is bordering on frantic. Scooball is the trade ace.
Insider reports have identified the Mets as a perfect landing spot,
largely because Steve Cohen doesn't just want an ACE, he
wants the ACE.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
And he's willing to pay the massive prospect capital and
then immediately offer an extension exactly.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
The Red Sox are also heavily in the mix. Scooball's
presence on the trade block is slowing down the entire
pitching market.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Which brings us to the Minnesota Twins, who have two
coass Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, both potentially.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Available, but their trade market is completely dependent on Scooball.
The Twins are navigating an ownership transition, complicating their long
term spending plans, and.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
They have these two incredibly valuable, cost controlled.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Pitchers and national reports strongly suggests that they will deal one,
but not both, before their team control runs out in
twenty twenty seven. But no team is going to offer
a premium package for Ryan or Lopez until the Schoobol
situation is resolved.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Why does Scooble's market specifically depress their value?
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Because if a team can acquire a proven two times
cy young winner like Scooball, they're taking themselves out of
the bidding for that next tier. Ryan is high value
but Lopez's value is already a little depressed due to
health concerns. If the Mets or Red Sox land schooble,
the demand for Ryan immediately falls and the Twins have
to accept a lesser return.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
So the market's just in.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
A holding pattern waiting for Detroit.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Finally, let's analyze the closer market, specifically the tier just
below the elite guys like Edwin Diez. Devin Williams is
creating a lot of chatter.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Especially about a possible reunion with the Yankees. Williams had
a surprisingly tumultuous twenty twenty five. He had a four
point seventy nine er, lost his closing duties in late July.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
On the surface, those numbers are terrible.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
They are, but if you dig into the underlying metrics,
his elite level stuff is still there. His strand rate,
which is the percentage of runners he leaves on base,
plummeted from a career high of eighty three percent to
just fifty five percent.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
So that screams massive bad luck exactly.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Teams are viewing him as a high upside BI low candidate.
The Yankees are discussing bringing him back on a team
friendly deal, but other teams like the Dodgers, Reds and
Red Sox are connected. They see an opportunity here, and.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
The Orioles, despite trading for Ward, they still desperately need
bullpen help.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Their bullpen has been gutted by injuries and trades. They're
in a dire position. They are actively hunting for high
leverage options to establish a committee.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Approach, so guys like Kyle Finnegan.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Finnegan who benefited from sharing duties in Detroit, or they
might look at established names like Pete Fairbanks or Ryan
Helsley to solidify that committee heading into spring training.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Okay, as we approach Friday's non tender deadline, the pressure
to make these painful financial decisions is just mounting. This
is the deadline that forces teams to weigh a player's
projected arbitration salary against their actual performance and.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
The value of their forty man roster spot. This is
where marginal decisions become existential for clubs trying to manage
the luxury tax. Even a few million dollars saved can
open up space for a much bigger signing.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Well, let's look at the Yankees. Despite their enormous wealth,
they are strategically trying to clear.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Space, and the biggest name facing a tough decision is
high salary reliever Camillo Davall, who's projected to get six
point six million dollars in arbitration.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
That's significant number.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
It is his performance just wasn't consistently strong enough to
justify that salary for a non closer role, especially if
the Yankees are planning on acquiring a high impact.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Reliever or even resigning Devin Williams.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Exactly, by non tendering Doval, they save that six point
six million, which can then be immediately reallocated. It's a
ruthless calculation based purely on opportunity cost.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
They're also looking at Mark Leader Junior projected at three million,
and Oswalda Cobrera at one point two million cabres.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Number is small, but his versatility might not be enough
to save him. The Yankees have a crowded infield, and
if they can use that forty man spot for a
higher upside pitching prospect, they might just cut ties.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
The dilemma facing the Kansas City Royals at second base
perfectly illustrates the burden of bad contracts for small market teams.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Oh this is a classic resource allocation problem. They are
struggling with what to do about Jonathan India and Michael Massey.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
If they keep both, they're committing nearly ten million dollars
to a second base platoon that was frankly below replacement
level in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
And for the Royals, who operate on a tight budget,
ten million tied up in below average production is just crippling.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
So what are the painful options?
Speaker 2 (23:45):
Well, non tendering India would free up most of that salary,
but it leaves a massive hole at second Non tendering
Massie saves less money, but he has more team control remaining.
They have to decide whether to eat a ten million
or risk losing a potential trade asset.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Across the league, the Cincinnati Reds face a similar situation
with former top prospect.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Gavin lux Looks is projected to earn five million dollars.
That is a steep price for a player who ended
twenty twenty five as a below replacement level contributor. He
hit point two six' nine with only five home.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
Runs and the defensive shift is the killer. Here, Right
he's primarily a left fielder, now.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Which severely diminishes his value compared to when he was
an infielder with a crowded. Outfield The reds will almost
certainly non tender. Him they'll bet that five million is
better spent.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Elsewhere The guardians have an agonizing decision with the fan
Favorite David.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Frye he's a realistic candidate to be non, tendered even
though his salary is low at one point two. Million
the problem is his production just isn't worth a forty
man spot right. Now he posted a negative war and
after an elbow, injury his defense behind the plate became completely.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Unplayable they just can't carry, that not when.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
They need those spots For rule five protection and out
on The West, coast The giants have to make a
call On Joey lakei's.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Who's projected a two. Million he was actually pretty solid
in twenty twenty, five a three point seven to six
era he, was but.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
The fact that he's still listed as a non tender
risk just underscores how acutely teams are managing their relief core.
Budgets if they see a, cheaper higher upside minor leaguer
they need to, Protect lukisi becomes.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Expendable moving past the non tender crunch that forty man
roster construction is also being fiercely driven by the Upcoming
rule five.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Draft teams are racing to clear space to protect their
highest upside. Prospects we saw a brilliant move from The.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Mets, here The Frankie montas.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Move, yeah they designated and Released, montass who's owed seventeen
million next year but is out due to ucl. Surgery
they immediately used that spot to select the contract of
Outfielder Nick.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Moribido so The mets decided that forty man spot was
far more valuable than the sunk cause Of montass's, salary.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
And morbito is a high reward. Protection he's got plus,
speed a strong, bat hit point three to six to
two in The Fall. League he would have absolutely been
claimed in The rule five.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
Draft now contrast that with the difficult decisions facing The Detroit.
Tigers they have three Critical rule five eligible, prospects.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
And the toughest one centers on switch hitting Catcher Theron.
Lorenzo he has rare seventy grade, power which is truly.
Elite if The tigers expose, him he is guaranteed to be.
Selected they have to protect.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
Him then there's infielder how You.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Lee lee's a disciplined, hitter had a strong double a,
run but he's blocked in the. System given that he
was acquired in The Michael lorenzen, trade they're unlikely to expose.
Him they invested assets in.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
Him and the final piece of their dilemma Is Eduardo.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
Valencia valencia is a catcher first baseman whose power exploded
in twenty twenty five with twenty four, homers but his
catching defense is poor and he's completely blocked at first
base By Spencer.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Torkelsen so do you dedicate a valuable forty man spot
to a backup first baseman with defensive limitations or do
you risk exposing.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Him it's a tough call because that forty man spot
is just so.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
Precious we're seeing organizations prioritize protection based on, upside even
health as a. Factor The pirates Protected Jack brannigan even
though he suffered a torn labor.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
Right that decision signals their faith in his. Upside they
view him as a foundational, piece even if he misses
the start of next.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Season, conversely The braves are likely exposing right Hander Ian
magea despite his two point six y' to two.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Era In DOUBLE, a and the reason is his stuff.
Profile it lacks high velocity and bat missing, ability which
gives him a lower ceiling and makes him less likely
to stick on A rule five roster for a full.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Season let's zoom out now and examine the broader organizational
changes sweeping across the, league starting with The Saint Louis,
cardinals who are undergoing a major culture shift under their
New president Of Baseball, Operations Jane.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Bloomloom's arrival is leading to immediate structural. Changes we saw
the firing Of Russ, steinhorn their former minor league hitting.
Coordinator steinhorn himself has spoken very highly Of bloom's intelligence and.
Competitiveness he Believes bloom will.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Use his experience to return The cardinals to. Prominence right this.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
Is about changing the fhilosophy from, within supplementing that Traditional
cardinals farm system with high value outside, talent.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
And steinhorn also provided some insight into their internal, talent
specifically touting the potential OF Jj.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Weatherholdt weatherhold is viewed internally as a bonafide star in the.
Making his impending, arrival though only highlights The cardinal's immediate
glaring need the outfield.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
Following the likely trade Of Brendan, donovan their outfield situation
is described internally as rather.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Bad that's putting it. Lightly they are heading toward opening
day with zero reliable.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Outfielders this desperate need forces them to consider high RISK
bilo candidates Like Michael.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Conforto confordo is the classic reclamation. Project he had a truly,
terrible below replacement level season in twenty twenty five with The.
Dodgers they actually dropped him from their playoff, Roster.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
But The cardinals are looking at his. History he was
a very good hitter as recently as twenty twenty. Four he.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
Was he posted a one TWELVE wrc plus dist that's
twelve percent better than league average after you adjust for.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
Ballpark so the argument is they're betting seventeen million on one,
year hoping his bat bounces back to twenty twenty four
levels and then he becomes a trade ship at the.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Deadline that's exactly. It he's a left handed, hitter which they.
Need it's a one year, gamble but it's a high risk.
One his defense and left field fell off a cliff last.
Year if the bat doesn't return to, form he is.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Unplayable beyond the. Clubs Major League baseball is structurally changing
how we consume the. Product finalizing these massive new media
rights deals totals nearly eight hundred million dollars annually over
the next three.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
Years this is a significant shift in viewing habits and revenue. STREAMS,
nbc primarily Through, peacock has taken Over Sunday Night baseball
and secured the rights to The Wildcard. Series they're paying
around two hundred million a, year so that.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
Puts Premium Sunday night content behind a streaming.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Paywall it, does and then There's netflix jumping into live baseball.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
Action you have the Home Run, derby.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
The derby and two additional live games for about fifty million.
Annually this just showed MLB's commitment to tapping into these
massive non traditional.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Platforms, MEANWHILE, espn which has been the cornerstone of national,
broadcasts they lost all postseason games and The. Derby they.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Did what they retained WAS MLB tv, rights the crucial
out of market streaming, service and a thirty game midweek.
Package they're paying five hundred and fifty million for this
new bundle.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
And crucially they're also handling in market streaming for six
specific teams whose broadcast rights are now produced BY mlb, itself.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
The, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Guardians, twins And.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Mariners let's discuss the financial consequence, though because while eight
hundred million sounds, ENORMOUS mlb reportedly took a significant haircut
compared to the previous deals they.
Speaker 2 (30:46):
Did MLB's total national rights revenue is projected to be
about three hundred million dollars, annually less than WHAT espn
was paying for its previous full, package.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
And that reduction in national revenue has significant long term.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Implications doesn't it oh absolutely that three hundred million reduction
means less national revenue is flowing into the central distribution.
Pool since revenue sharing is based on total league, revenue
this puts pressure on, teams especially those in smaller, markets.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
Who rely on those national checks to offset local revenue. Deficiencies.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Right while the effect isn't, immediate it increases the urgency
for smaller market teams to maximize their LOCAL tv. Contracts
it further justifies why we see teams like The royals
making brutal cost saving decisions on players Like Jonathan. India
the financial margins are just becoming thinner for everyone outside
the top few.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
Markets that is a deep. Insight before we wrap, up
let's quickly cover some of the fun and interesting news
items surrounding The World series Champion.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
Dodgers Mooki, betts who is thirty, three now wrapped up
his twelfth season and his second Straight World series, win
even with a down year at the plate where he
hit zero point two five.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Eight he's just a veteran, leader and the high praise
for sho Hey otani. Continues he got his Second World
series title and Fourth end.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Award Lebron james even Compared otawanni's dominance in baseball To
stiff And curry's revolutionary influence in THE, nba.
Speaker 1 (32:07):
Which is about as high as praise.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Gets it. Is and if you're looking for a piece
of that, history the auction market is already. Hot artifacts
From game, Seven Will smith's home run balls bid at
one hundred and thirty thousand dollars And Miguel rojas's homer
ball is at seventy. Thousand.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Incredible looking, ahead we have the Film, homecoming The tokyo
series chronicling That Dodgers cubs season opener In. Japan that's
going to be.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Great it really highlights the globalization of the, game and
closer to, HOME mlb is bringing back The field Of
dreams game In, Dyersville iowa On august, thirteenth twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Six Minnesota twins and The Philadelphia, phillies a lovely nod
to tradition it. Is and finally we had that fascinating
hypothetical where a fan acting as The ROCKIES, gm tried
to rebuild the.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Franchise it was an interesting case. Study the HYPOTHETICAL gm
Signed Rhys hoskins to a three, year thirty point six million.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Dollar, deal hoping Core feld would boost his.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Power, right and then dramatically Claimed Royce lewis off waivers
from The. Twins in that, simulation The rockies finished the
off season adding seven point seven war which was second
only to the yankees eight point two war.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Game it just shows that, aggressive high upside, moves even
if they carry, risk can drastically change a team's. OUTLOOK
a bold thought experiment for franchise that desperately needs. Momentum
what an intense week of transactions and it's all driven
less by rumor and more by these ironclad. Deadlines the
pace of movement around This november twentieth, timeline specifically the
(33:34):
non tender crunch and The rule five protection. Efforts it
just proves that financial pressures dictate.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Action the key takeaway for me is the stark separation
we're seeing between the contenders and those still. Rebuilding The
orioles were willing to move four years of cost controlled
pitching for one year of immediate.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
Impact while The angels were desperate to absorb that high
risk control.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Exactly and meanwhile you have The astros and The yankees
maneuvering around the actions of millions of dollars so they
can afford the next massive. Star the urgency is just.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Palpable and those accepted qualifying, offers especially show To immanaga's
surprise acceptance by The cubs that is undeniably tightened the
perse strings for the top. Spenders it's making their next
decision significantly, harder.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Which raises an important question for, you the listener To,
mullover given the surprising impact of those accepted QoS on
team budgets and, flexibility forcing clubs like The cubs And
yankees to recalculate what percentage of the remaining major free
agents Your, bellinger's Your, alonzo's Your Valdize's do you think
(34:38):
we'll actually sign before the end of the calendar.
Speaker 1 (34:40):
Year that's a great. Question will the urgency of spring
training force them to sign, anyway or will the titan
perse strings drag this market well Into.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
January it's going to be fascinating to.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Watch that's a great thought to close. On the dominoes
have started, falling but it sounds like the biggest ones
might be stuck until the new. Year we'll be tracking
all the moves and deadlines right here year on The Baseball.
Podcast we appreciate you joining us for this. Analysis until next,
time
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.