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December 26, 2025 33 mins
The holidays may be winding down, but the MLB hot stove is still raging — and this episode is your guided tour through the moves, rumors, and pressure points that are shaping the 2026 season before Spring Training even begins. We start with the signing nobody saw coming: Japanese superstar slugger Munetaka Murakami landing with the Chicago White Sox on a two-year, $34 million deal. For a franchise coming off multiple 100-loss seasons, it’s more than a bat — it’s instant relevance. We break down why Murakami’s age, plate discipline, and elite power profile make the fit so intriguing, how the short-term structure protects both sides, and why his off-field gesture in Chicago felt like the perfect “new era” moment. From there, we head west to the Athletics, who are making loud “we’re building something” statements even amid relocation uncertainty. The centerpiece is Tyler Soderstrom’s massive extension, and we dig into what that commitment says about their timeline, their young core, and how teams are increasingly trying to buy out arbitration years before prices explode. Then comes one of the most fascinating trades of the winter: Jeff McNeil to the A’s, with the Mets eating a significant chunk of money to prioritize flexibility and upside — a clear snapshot of how modern rebuild economics are evolving. In Boston, the Red Sox add another twist to their roster puzzle by acquiring Wilson Contreras, and we unpack the immediate domino effect: first base/DH congestion, what it means for Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, and why “add talent first, solve fit later” is a real front-office philosophy (especially when the bat is that tempting). On the other side of the deal, the Cardinals signal a full-throttle teardown — a rebuild that’s going to test patience, demand prospect growth, and redefine their identity in the NL Central. We also hit the “quiet but important” moves: Rob Refsnyder giving Seattle a weapon versus lefties, Merrill Kelly returning to stabilize Arizona’s rotation, and Pittsburgh adding offense with Ryan O’Hearn while also making an under-the-radar infield upgrade. And yes — we talk about the teams not moving, including the growing spotlight on Washington’s multi-year free agent drought and what “extreme austerity” looks like in a league where windows close fast. Then it’s time for the big fish still circling: the Alex Bregman sweepstakes (and why so many rumors feel like leverage theater), Toronto’s aggressive posture after coming heartbreakingly close to a title, and the franchise-altering choice between chasing Bo Bichette (even with a position shift) or going all-in for a more perfectly tailored fit like Kyle Tucker. We also discuss the ticking clock on Japanese power option Kazuma Okamoto, and how teams pivot when the top tier starts coming off the board. On the pitching side, we run through the market’s key remaining arms and the best team fits — from steadying forces to reclamation bets — while exploring what contenders truly value right now: durability, postseason utility, and the ability to “raise the floor” on a staff that can’t afford another injury spiral. The episode isn’t only transactions, though. We zoom out to the bigger storylines: prospect development markers that actually matter (not just the surface stats), the way organizations use pitch design to unlock the next leap, and the league-wide concern that’s getting harder to ignore — the vulnerability created by prop betting and how it can threaten the integrity of the sport. We close with a fun mix of history and perspective: the “all-awardless” standouts of 2025, the infamous pool-party feud that turned into a decade-long rivalry fuel source, the wild alternate timeline where Mookie Betts almost walked away from baseball, and why the winter calendar has a habit of producing both brilliant masterstrokes and painful cautionary tales. Press play, settle in, and let’s map the offseason — before the next domino drops.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The holiday season may be winding down, but the MLB
hot stove is absolutely blazing hot. We're well past the
Winter meetings midpoint, and yet frankly, a lot of the
biggest names in free agency, the real impact guys are
still unsigned.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
They are, which.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
Makes these next few weeks just crucial for shaping the
twenty twenty sixth season.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
That's absolutely right. What we're seeing is this fascinating tension
in the league. You have some teams making these big,
decisive strikes. I mean, we've already seen some shocking trades,
some massive extensions, while other teams are playing a really
high stakes waiting game, just waiting for the dominoes to fall,
exactly hoping players like Tucker and Bregman fall their way.
The strategy of the offseason so often defines the season

(00:44):
to come, and right now you can just feel the
league map being redrawn.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
Today. We're going to try to cut through all the noise,
all the speculation, and really focus on the moves that
matter most too. We're talking high profile players still looking
for a home, some really unexpected team shifts, and even
some off field dramas that kind of reveal the hidden
pressures in the sport.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, we'll be looking at some major organizational shifts, like
the Cardinals just embarking on a full and probably painful rebuild,
and on the other hand, why the White Sox made
such a surprising splash. Then we'll dive into prospect development
and close out with a look at some stadium controversies
and frankly, an alarming league trend that really threatens the

(01:25):
integrity of the game.

Speaker 1 (01:26):
It's a lot to get through. So let's start with
the one that nobody, and I mean nobody saw coming,
the signing that just injected some serious life into a
franchise that desperately needed it, The rise of the Pale
Hoose thanks to Munatako Marakami.

Speaker 2 (01:40):
Oh, this is a stunner. Japanese slugger Munataka Marakami signs
with the Chicago White Sox a two year, thirty four
million dollar contract. And you have to remember the context here.
The White Sox had just come off three straight seasons
of over one hundred losses.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
They were basically invisible, totally.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Invisible in the al Central conversation, and yet their GM
cris skets managed to keep this pursuit unbelievably quiet. I
mean that itself is a huge organizational win. He even
called it one of the bigger wins in their history,
just because they kept it under wraps.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
I think the silence around the deal is almost as
impressive as the player himself. And this is a massive
talent injection for anyone who hasn't really followed his career
in Japan. Let's go a little deeper. What makes him
so captivating.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
He's a true generational talent and the numbers absolutely bear
that out. The most important thing, he's only twenty five,
so you're eliminating almost all of that aging curve risk.
He comes to MLB with a staggering two hundred and
forty six career home runs over eight seasons in Japan.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Yeah, and he has six seasons with at least twenty
eight homers. That shows incredible consistency, and his career splits
over there, a point two to seven to three average,
an elite point three ninety four on base, and a
point nine four or five ops. Those numbers, they don't
just suggest a good hitter, they suggest a disciplined hitter
with massive power. Yeah. That should translate very well.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
And the team context here makes this essential, doesn't it.
This isn't just a luxury buy. The White Sox were
desperate for power. I think they were fourteenth out of
fifteen AL teams in homers last season.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
They were. He immediately addresses that huge power deficit, and
maybe more importantly, he lengthens a lineup that's starting to
develop a pretty interesting young core. He gives him protection
they just haven't had.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
So the deal itself two years, thirty four million dollars.
That seems pretty shrewd for both sides.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
Oh, it's mutually beneficial. It's a great structure. The White
Sox get that high impact production without locking into some
massive decade long deal while they're still rebuilding. And for
more Kami, he gets to acclimate to MLB pitching without
the pressure of a nine figure contract, you know.

Speaker 1 (03:41):
Right, and he can set himself up for an even
bigger payday in two years if he performs exactly.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
It's a really smart deal all around.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
And beyond the field, you have to talk about the
pr win. I mean, the White Sox off this immediate
measurable goodwill. This signing reopens their focus on the Pacific
Rim and the fan response was just explosive.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
The social media numbers tell the whole story. Whitzox had
what four point one million impressions on X before the signing.
In the twenty four hours after the deal was announced,
that number jumped to fifteen point nine million.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
That's almost a four hundred percent jump.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
It's instantaneous relevancy. You just can't buy that kind of excitement.
And it proves that signing a major international star, even
on a short deal, captures attention globally right away.

Speaker 1 (04:22):
And the story gets even better. Maricami himself, right out
of the gate, shows incredible character. At his press conference,
he announces he's donating grocery gift certificates to one hundred
Chicago families through the Saint James Food Pantry, a ten
thousand dollars donation.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
It's just an immediate positive impact on the community that
goes way beyond baseball. It bridges that gap between a
new international star and the city he's now calling home,
a huge momentum shift for that organization.

Speaker 1 (04:49):
Speaking of organizations making these decisive moves that kind of
shock the system, we have to look west to the Athletics,
who have made some significant core investments even with all
the relocation drama hanging over their heads.

Speaker 2 (05:01):
Yeah, the A's made some big headlines locking up their
breakout star Tyler Soderstrom. We saw him agree to a
seven year, eighty six million dollar extension. He's got a
club option for twenty thirty three, and it even has
escalators that could push the deal up by another forty
five million dollars.

Speaker 1 (05:16):
That is a massive vote of confidence, especially with all
the instability surrounding the franchise.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
Right it is. It's the kind of move that tells
your fans and the rest of the league, hey, we
are committed to building a winning team no matter where
we end up playing.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
And based on his performance last year, it feels like
money well spent locking up a cost controlled star before
he hits arbitration.

Speaker 2 (05:37):
It certainly does. I mean Soderstrom had a true breakout
in twenty twenty five. He posted an elite four point
three war He had sixty extra base hits, twenty five
of them were homers, drove in ninety three RBIs, and
he even stole eight bases, showing some surprising athleticism.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
And he's versatile too. The Gold Glove nomination in left
field in his.

Speaker 2 (05:57):
First season out there a move they had to make
because they needed to clear first base for their top prospect,
Nick Kurtz. This extension, plus the ones they gave to
Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler last year, it shows the
A's are genuinely trying to build around this young core.

Speaker 1 (06:11):
But they weren't done. They then made a really surprising
trade with the Mets, acquiring Jeff McNeil.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
This trade was fascinating. So the A's get McNeil from
the Mets, and in exchange, they give up jor Don Rodriguez.
He's a seventeen year old Cuban pitching prospect they signed
for about four hundred thousand dollars. He's raw, but he's
already throwing in the mid nineties with a potentially plus slider.

Speaker 1 (06:32):
But the shocking part for me, at least, is the money.
The Mets are covering five point seventy five million dollars
of McNeil's salary for twenty twenty six, and is two
million dollars buyout for twenty twenty seven. That's almost eight
million bucks they're paying just to get him off the roster.

Speaker 2 (06:46):
Why And that's the key right there. That dollar figure
is how you understand modern accelerated rebuilds. Statistically, McNeil was
the third most valuable met by fangrafts war since twenty eighteen.
Only Neimo and Lindor were better.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
Wow, he was more valuable than Peede Alonzo over that stretch.

Speaker 2 (07:02):
He was, So why are they paying almost eight million
dollars to move him? It just signals this massive priority shift. Yeah,
they're all in on financial flexibility and high upside future assets.
The Mets basically value that high risk seventeen year old
Cuban prospect Jordan Rodriguez higher than the immediate certainty that
McNeil provided.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
Even if it meant eating all that salary.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
Even if it meant eating salary, it's an economic strategy shift.
They brought in Marcus Semion for second and Hardy Polanco
for first, which made McNeil expendable. It's a painful, but
I think deliberate demolition of their old core. You saw Diaz,
Alonso and Nimmo all de part this winter. It's the
new cost of business if you want to rebuild quickly.

Speaker 1 (07:43):
That's a huge signal. Okay. Pivoting over to the National League,
the Red Sox and Cardinals completed a deal that really
confirmed the strategic direction for both teams, and this one
has some tricky positional implications.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
In Boston, this is the Wilson Contreras trade. The Red
Sox finally got the big bat they needed, getting Contraras
from Saint Louis, who are willing to move him only
one year into a long term deal.

Speaker 1 (08:06):
Okay, so let's unpack this. Where does Conturras fit in Boston?
He's a fantastic hitter, but where does he play?

Speaker 2 (08:12):
He is primarily going to play first base in DH
and that was basically signaled by the Cardinals themselves, who
called him unplayable behind the plate for long stretches last season.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
Which immediately creates a log jam. Right, Yeah, You've got
Tristan Cossas at first, You've got Muskataki Yoshida, who needs
DH at bats.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
A definite log jam. It potentially displaces either Casas or Yoshida,
who still has that hefty contract. It's a problem.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
So if they want to get Contraras's bat in the
lineup every day, someone has to move.

Speaker 2 (08:39):
It's Cassas versus Yoshida. If Kassas is hitting for power
like they expect, you have to get him at bats
at first. But Yoshida, who they're paying a lot is
a liability in the outfield, so he needs that DH bot.
If Contreras takes most of the one B in DH time,
it either pushes Yoshida back to the outfield, which is
not ideal, or it makes Costa, the younger player, the

(09:01):
odd man out.

Speaker 1 (09:02):
And maybe the most likely trade ship to go get
some pitching.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
Exactly. It's a classic case of acquiring the talent first
and figuring out the fit later, hoping that bat plays
so well it solves all the other problems.

Speaker 1 (09:12):
This move absolutely confirms what the Cardinals are doing, doesn't it.
Under Chain Bloom, they are locked into a full rebuild
after three straight seasons without making the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
It does. He confirms the rebuild, and it's a clear
signal to their fan base. The Cardinals got three pitchers back,
including a young prospect yokiir for Hardo and more notably
Hunter Dobbins.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
Dobbins is the interesting one. He fits that bigger picture idea,
but he's got a massive injury history.

Speaker 2 (09:37):
He does a recent ACL tear, a prior Tommy John surgery.
It's been a tough road, but this is a very
Chain Bloom esque move. Bloom knows Dobbins from his time
in Boston, and he's focused on future upside over any
immediate return. He's betting that Dobbin's potential, if you can
ever stay healthy, outweighs that risk. It just reinforces that

(09:57):
the Cardinals are not buying parts for twenty twenty six.
They are building from the ground up.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
Okay, moving quickly through a few other key deals that
have already happened. The Mariners made a very specific, targeted
signing to fix a platoon weakness.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
They did. They signed Rob Refsnyder to a one year,
six point twenty five million dollar deal. Yeah, that's a
big pay bump from what he made in Boston, which
just tells you how much Seattle valued his specific skill set,
which is what exactly mashing left handed pitching. He has
been one of the most effective right handed hitters against
lefties over the past four seasons. He's third and on
base percentage at point four zero seven and six to

(10:30):
o ps at point nine twenty four against them. He
gives them a perfect platoon partner and a needed bat
against southpaus.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
The Diamondbacks meanwhile, made a move to keep some much
needed consistency in their rotation.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
That's Merril Kelly. He signed a two year, forty million
dollars deal to come back to Arizona, and Kelly was
very open about it. He credited the d Backs for
being the first ones in the door, which shows you
that personal connection still matters. He even said his brief
time away proved the grass isn't always.

Speaker 1 (10:59):
Greener and they desperately needed him back.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
They did. He's given them a solid three point four
to seven ERA since twenty twenty two, averaging one hundred
and fifty nine innings a year. That's just crucial for
a pitching staff that needs a durable mid rotation arm.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
And finally, a quick note on the Pirates. They were
quietly trying to improve what was a pretty poor offense
last season.

Speaker 2 (11:20):
Yep. They signed Ryan O'Hearn to a two year deal,
and that signing officially made the Washington Nationals the last
team in baseball without a multi year free agent signing
going all the way back to twenty twenty. The Pirates
also traded for Brandon Lowe, who's getting ready to play
second base. They're showing a bit more life than we've
seen in a while.

Speaker 1 (11:37):
All Right, now that we've covered the moves that are done,
Let's look at the high sticks decisions that are still
out there, and the biggest name left in the infield
is arguably Alex Bregman.

Speaker 2 (11:46):
The Bregman battlefield is definitely heating up, and the consensus
among most analysts is that he's going to land with
the Red Sox. The prediction is a deal around one
hundred and fifty million dollars, and.

Speaker 1 (11:57):
It makes sense. They've added Sunny Gray, they've added Wilson Treras,
but they still have this huge gaping hole at third base.
Bregman would stabilize that in field immediately.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
And provide a veteran presence. He's familiar with the organization
and he has the potential to be a real clubhouse leader,
which is something the Red Sox are looking for.

Speaker 1 (12:16):
But his agent is Scott Morris. We know how this works.
Are all the rumors connecting him to other teams, the
Blue Jays, the Cubs, the Diamondbacks? Is that real interest
or is it just theater?

Speaker 2 (12:27):
I think it's a classic smoke screen is designed purely
for leverage. You hear all these teams are in contact
with Boras, But a lot of people believe this is
just Bora's trying to drive up the price for the
Red Sox, who are still seen as the inevitable landing spot.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
You hear the Phillies mentioned as a long shot, but
that seems complicated.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
Very complicated. That move would mean they'd have to trade
Alec Bohm, who is a popular and productive player. It's
a messy fantasy for Philly fans, which just means the
Red Sox are still holding the strongest cards.

Speaker 1 (12:56):
Speaking of teams that are really stepping on the gas,
you've got the Toronto Blue Jays. They came within two
outs of a World Series title last year and they
are clearly intent on finishing the job.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
They are absolutely stepping on the gas. They've already added
Dylan Cees and Tyler Rodgers to shore up the pitching,
but now they face this huge decision about their core
position players.

Speaker 1 (13:16):
And the biggest question is Boba Schett. They're heavily linked
to her reunion and he recently announced he's willing to
shift to second base. That's a pretty big deal for
a career shortstop.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
It's a huge deal and it absolutely impacts his perceived
value by saying he's willing to move off shortstop. He's
signaling that he knows his market might not support the
absolute top shortstop.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
Money, so it might bring his price down.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
At a little. Rumors are suggesting a contract in the
ten year three hundred and thirty million dollars range. If
the Jay sign him, he'd moved to second and that
gives him a lot of infield flexibility.

Speaker 1 (13:52):
But there's another name out there, Kyle Tucker, who a
lot of people have as the number one free agent available.
Would he actually be a more impact actual move for them.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
From a purely strategic standpoint, probably yes. Tucker is seen
as the even more impactful option. The Blue Jays have
a hole on the corner outfield, and Tucker's combination of skills, power, speed, defense,
and crucially a lefty bat. Yeah, it fills a more
critical need for them than.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
Bashett does, and it would be a statement signing.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
Huge statement. Landing Tucker would unequivocally establish the Blue Jays
as a franchise that can land that elite franchise altering talent,
something they've struggled with in the past.

Speaker 1 (14:29):
The dream for Toronto fans is obviously both.

Speaker 2 (14:32):
Of course, that's the dream to land both Tucker and
Bishet and become an absolute juggernaut, but realistically that's really
tough to pull off financially. They'll probably have to choose.

Speaker 1 (14:41):
And as teams wait for those big dominoes to fall,
we're seeing more interest in some alternatives, especially a player
from Japan whose negotiating window is closing fast.

Speaker 2 (14:51):
That's Kazuma O Komodo. His forty five day window is
closing soon, and he's linked to a whole host of
teams looking for a power bat, the Pirates, Jewels, Blue Jays,
d Backs, Cubs. He's that high upside option for teams
that might miss out on the very top guys.

Speaker 1 (15:08):
Shifting gears a bit, let's talk catching. The Phillies have
a big decision to make about their longtime backstop JT. Realmudo.

Speaker 2 (15:14):
Yeah, he's still unsigned and the fact that he'll be
thirty five before opening day that definitely introduces some risk.
But the urgency of the Phillies championship window is everything.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
Right now, so everyone thinks they just have to re
signed him.

Speaker 2 (15:26):
Pretty much every analyst is urging them to. He's seen
as the sensible catching solution, even though he's coming off
his worst offensive year in Philly.

Speaker 1 (15:33):
Why is he still the sensible choice.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Then it's really two things, his durability and the complete
lack of better alternatives on the market. There just aren't
any other free agent catchers who can provide his level
of defensive consistency and his history of staying on the field,
so it kind of forces their hand. They have to
bring him back and just bet on an offensive rebound.

Speaker 1 (15:52):
We also have a pretty strong group of starting pitchers
still available. Let's run through the predictions for the key
guys left, starting with Rangersrez.

Speaker 2 (16:00):
Suarez, who's ranked about number ten among free agents, seems
like a great fit with the Orioles. Baltimore's putching was
a disaster in twenty twenty five and they desperately need
veteran stability. Suarez isn't a true inning zeter, but he
keeps runs off the board and has a great postseason resume.
That's exactly what a young competitive team needs.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
Okay, how about Framer Valdez, the ground ball machine.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
Valdez ranked thirteenth, is a strong predicted fit for the Cubs.
Chicago needs help at the top of their rotation, and
Valdez has been so consistent, averaging thirty starts in a
three point two one era since twenty twenty two. But crucially,
his ground ball approach is a perfect match for that
elite middle infield defense of Danzy Swanson and Nico Horner.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
A strategic synergy, right, A guy who gets sixty percent
ground balls in front of those two, it's an.

Speaker 2 (16:45):
Ideal organizational fit. You maximize your outs that way.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
Now. Zach Gallon, he was a cy young candidate not
long ago, but his era really ballooned last season. Where
does he fit?

Speaker 2 (16:57):
Gallon ranked twentieth. His predicted to land with the Braves.
Atlanta's rotation just completely collapsed physically in twenty twenty five,
which is why they fell from eighty nine wins to
seventy six. Gallon Zra shot up to four point eighty three,
which is alarming, but he's been incredibly durable. The Braves
are betting that their pitching staff can help him fix
whatever went wrong last.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
Year, and finally, a classic reclamation project for a team
that specializes in them.

Speaker 2 (17:22):
They will be Lucas Gilito ranked thirtieth heading to the
Tampa Bay Rays. Jilido missed all of twenty twenty four
after elbow surgery. He bounced back okay, with the Red Sox,
but his underlying numbers were still a little worrying. The
Rays need rotation help and they're budding. Giliita will be
the next veteran pitcher to revive his career in Tampa.
It's a low risk, high reward move that is perfectly
in their wheelhouse.

Speaker 1 (17:42):
This offseason has really thrown a spotlight on the difference
between teams that are committed to spending and teams that are,
let's say, committed to extreme austerity. We have to talk
about the Washington Nationals.

Speaker 2 (17:55):
The national stagnation. It's not just a critique. It's a
measurable failure. They are the last team in baseball without
a multi year free agent deal, and that street goes
all the way back to twenty twenty. It's just a
severe missed opportunity, especially with their needs.

Speaker 1 (18:11):
And missing out on Morikami seems particularly bad given he
signed a relatively short manageable deal.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
Absolutely, the Nats desperately need power. Murakami would have slotted
in perfectly at first base, provided protection for their young hitters,
and critically, it would have stopped them from needing This
last resort idea of moving Luis Garcia junior to first base.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
And it's not just the offense. Their pitching was just
awful in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
Profoundly bad. They rank twenty ninth and banning average allowed
twenty eighth, and strikeout rate in twenty fourth and walk ray.
You just can't contend with numbers like that.

Speaker 1 (18:42):
So they brought in a new, very young pitching coach
to try and fix it.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
Yeah, thirty year old coach Simon Matthews. He's got major
work ahead of him. He has to address just fundamental
problems with command and velocity across that entire staff. But
for a team that's trying to build a new identity,
you have to invest in the process, and they just haven't.

Speaker 1 (19:01):
Now let's look at the World Series champion Dodgers. They
fixed their biggest flaw, the bullpen, but they still have
this one concerning number. At the age of their lineup, the.

Speaker 2 (19:12):
Dodgers are still the team to beat. They address that
twenty twenty five bullpen issue by signing Edwin Diaz, which
is huge, but their position player group is the oldest
in MLB, with an average weighted age of thirty point seven.
Veteran experience is great, but age can catch up quickly
over a long season, so they'll have to manage workloads
very carefully, very carefully. On a different note, though their

(19:34):
organizational commitment is impressive. They just completed their new single
a stadium, ont Field, and it's designed to mirror Dodger Stadium.
A subtle but effective bit of brand consistency.

Speaker 1 (19:44):
That is impressive. Over in the end of Central the
Cardinals direction is crystal clear, but the Cubs, who are
amazing in twenty twenty five, also have some questions about sustainability.

Speaker 2 (19:54):
Yeah, the Cardinals are in full rebuild chain. Bloom is
listening to offers on anyone. Trading a fan favorite like
brend To Donovan to the Guardians just underscores that they
need their young prospects like JJ Weatherholdt to mature quickly.
This is a multi year project for them.

Speaker 1 (20:08):
And the Cubs. They had the best position player war
in baseball last year? Where's the potential weakness there?

Speaker 2 (20:15):
They did, but the big question is can they sustain it.
Pete Crow Armstrong put up an incredible six point zero
war with the sub point three hundred zero on base
percentage that's almost historically unique.

Speaker 1 (20:27):
How does a player even do that?

Speaker 2 (20:28):
Elite defense and elite base running. His defense and center
was a black hole for baseballs, and he created so
much value on the bases. But those high war seasons
that are driven so heavily by defense, they're statistically really
tough to replicate year after year. The Cubs know they
need to bolster their pitching to maintain that level of contention.

Speaker 1 (20:46):
Down in the NL West, the Rockies had a historically
bad twenty twenty five, losing over one hundred and six games.
Is there any hope for a quick turnaround?

Speaker 2 (20:54):
Historically, teams that lose that many games improved by an
average of fourteen wins the next season, So that would
project the Rockies to about fifty seven wins. It's a
small jump, but it suggests they won't be quite that
bad again.

Speaker 1 (21:06):
So what are they banking on? Internally?

Speaker 2 (21:08):
They need Hunter Goodman to prove his incredible twenty twenty
five was in a fluke. They need Ezekiel Tovar and
Breton Doyle to reclaim their gold gloves because their defense
took a step back last year. And they're hoping for
a twenty twenty season from Jordan Beck, who had sixteen
homers and nineteen steals last year. Internal development is their
only path to improvement right now.

Speaker 1 (21:28):
Finally, before we move on, we have to touch on
the braids in this massive historical weakness they had to
fix in their middle infield.

Speaker 2 (21:34):
The number that should stick with you is thirty eight.
That is the number of runs braids shortstops created via
fangrafts to WBA in twenty twenty five. Thirty eight. That
was the lowest output of any position in Major League Baseball,
a crippling deficiency.

Speaker 1 (21:48):
So what was the fix and how much better does
it make them?

Speaker 2 (21:51):
They signed haci On Kim to a one year deal.
If Kim just hits like he did in twenty twenty four,
that alone represents about a thirty run improvement over what
they got from their short stops last year. That translates
to roughly three new wins of offense. They clearly believe
their core is good enough to win now if they
can just plug those few critical holes.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
Okay, let's shift focus from the big leaguers to the
young talent. For the Angels, their future really hinges on
the development of Nolan Shanuel, and the key numbers here
are all about underlying progress, not just the surface stats.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
That's exactly right. There was all this talk about improving
his bat speed, but the change was pretty marginal from
sixty five point two miles per hour to sixty seven
point five. The real positive developments were under the hood.
Shaniel started hitting the ball in the air more. His
air percentage jumped up to fifty seven point one percent,
which is crucial for.

Speaker 1 (22:41):
Power, and more importantly, he adjusted against herd throwing pitchers.

Speaker 2 (22:45):
That's the real separator correct In twenty twenty four, he
was below average against fastballs and sinkers. In twenty twenty five,
he handled velocity much better, posting positive run values against
both pitches. He already has a lead plate discipline. If
that performance against velocity holds, that modest increase in bad
speed is going to play up big time.

Speaker 1 (23:05):
Another angel poised for a big jump is Jose Soriano,
but it requires a very specific adjustment on the mound.

Speaker 2 (23:11):
Soriano has the big arm and the raw stuff, but
he needs to figure out how to effectively pitch his
four seamer up in the zone. It's a strategic goal.
He has a fantastic sweeper and curveball that drop off
the table. If he can execute that vertical attack high
fastballs to change the eye level. It makes his other
pitches so much more effective.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
It creates that vertical separation exactly.

Speaker 2 (23:32):
If he unlocks that command adjustment in twenty twenty six,
he has everything else he needs to become an ace.

Speaker 1 (23:37):
And finally, for the Angels, you've got Matthew Lugo, who
seems like he's about to get a real opportunity.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
Yeah, Lugo's twenty four and he has a great chance
to win an outfield job now the tailor award has gone.
He was hampered last year by being a Yo yo
player seventy played appearances across thirty one games, constantly being
shuttled between Triple A and the majors.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
That's impossible for a young player to find a rhythm.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
It is a consistent look at the big league level
could be all he needs to finally establish himself.

Speaker 1 (24:03):
Moving over to the Yankee system, let's talk about Dylan Lewis.
He's an unheralded kid who broke out in the miners,
but his success story is actually hidden by a falling
batting average. It's a great example of why you need
advanced metrics.

Speaker 2 (24:16):
It is a text bookcase Lewis jumped from single A
to HYA. His batting average fell, but his underlying metrics
all got way better. He cut his strikeout rate from
twenty eight point two percent down to twenty point eight percent.
Why because he was being more disciplined swinging lass at
pitches he couldn't damage. The only reason his average fell
was bad luck. His baby p just cratered from point

(24:38):
three p one to three to point twenty five to four.

Speaker 1 (24:40):
So he was hitting the ball just as well, but
they were finding gloves instead of grass.

Speaker 2 (24:43):
Precisely, his discipline and strikeout rate are far better indicators
of future success than a fluke batting average. He has
some serious upside if that luck just evens out.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Switching to the mound. We have a few pitchers making
some notable arsenal adjustments, starting with Mike Soroka of the Diamondbacks.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
Soroka is really confident in a comeback because he says
he's finally cleared up these chronic internal health issues that
led to all his injuries. He says figuring that out
is the last key to getting his body right. So
for twenty twenty six, he is adding three new pitches,
a cutter, a sweeper and a gyro slider. He's expanding

(25:20):
his attack profiles significantly.

Speaker 1 (25:22):
For the Red Sox, their prospect, Peyton Tolly is trying
to improve his secondary pitches, and they're using some of
the league's top analytical pitchers as a model.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
Yeah, they're Chief Baseball Officer Craig Bruslow made it clear
that's Totlly's essential goal. They're looking at guys like Brian Wup.
Toty already has a high velocity, high extension four seemer
that plays up, but the Red Sox may encourage him
to add a sinker to keep hitters off balance.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
For our listeners, what's the strategy there? Why does having
both a for seemer and a sinker make him better?

Speaker 2 (25:50):
A sinker creates weak contact and ground balls by dropping late.
His four seemer is designed to miss bats up high
because it resists gravity. The idea is that difffferentiating between
two fastballs with very different movement patterns one that rides
high one that sinks, is almost impossible for a hit
or to process in milliseconds. It allows him to stay ahead.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
And finally, a quick note on the Pirates and Carmen Muldinsky.

Speaker 2 (26:13):
The pirates are transitioning Malzinsky back to a starter's workload
after he was mostly in relief last year. This just
reflects their organizational confidence in their pitching depth. They feel
they have enough talent that they can afford to build
him back up as a starter, which is a high
upside investment in their future rotation.

Speaker 1 (26:31):
Okay, we need to address something we mentioned at the top,
a disturbing trend that really threatens the integrity of the game.
We're talking about the federal gambling charges faced by Guardian's
closer Emmanuel Class and his twenty twenty five teammate Luis Ortiz.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
And this scandal really shines a light on an insidious
danger in modern sports. What's truly dangerous here, as many
have pointed out, is the rise of prop bets on
individual player performance. Unlike fixing an entire game, which takes
multiple time players, a prop bet can be manipulated by
just one person.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
Right a pitcher betting on how many walks hill issue
or a hitter getting on strikeouts.

Speaker 2 (27:09):
It's a frightening vulnerability for baseball, where a single at
bat or a single pitch can be so decisive, and the.

Speaker 1 (27:15):
League's response so far has been heavily criticized.

Speaker 2 (27:17):
It has MLB imposed a two hundred dollars limit on
prop bets through its official partners, but that's just a
half measure that's easily bypassed by placing multiple bets across
different sports books. The problem goes deeper. Problem gambling rates
are rising, and you even hear fans say they can't
watch sports now without betting on it because it's no fun.

Speaker 1 (27:36):
Which fundamentally changes the relationship with the game. You're rooting
for an outcome, not a team exactly.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
And we're already seeing the consequences in these federal charges.

Speaker 1 (27:44):
Shifting to a different kind of off field drama, the
Kansas City Royals and their stadium standoff. This seems to
be reaching a critical point.

Speaker 2 (27:53):
This is a major looming crisis for the Royals and
for Kansas City, Missouri. Their lease at Kaufman Stadium is
up in twenty thirty one, and their fate is even
more precarious now that the Chiefs announce they're moving across
state lines for a new domed facility.

Speaker 1 (28:06):
The psychological impact of losing two major pro sports teams
would just be devastating for that city.

Speaker 2 (28:12):
It would and the Royals missed a crucial deadline for
public funding. They missed the December thirty one deadline to
have a deal on the table for Kansas's Star bonds,
which is the same mechanism that lured the Chiefs away.
These bonds could cover up to seventy percent of a
new two billion dollars stadium, so.

Speaker 1 (28:29):
Missing that deadline adds immense pressure.

Speaker 2 (28:31):
It does. The legal deadline is June thirty, but missing
the political one signals a real lack of momentum and
adds a ton of uncertainty. The Royals front office needs
to make a firm decision soon or they risk alienating everyone.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
Okay, before we wrap up, let's take a moment to
acknowledge some exceptional seasons that, for whatever reason, didn't result
in any major awards. This is the all awardless team
of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
It's always fun spot like these guys. At catcher, William
Contreras of the Brewers, he played most year with a
fractured finger, still posted a point seventy five to four
ops and logged the second most defensive innings of any catcher.
Just brilliant all around.

Speaker 1 (29:07):
At first base, the Cubs, Michael Bush had a huge
breakout year.

Speaker 2 (29:11):
They really did. His point eighty six to six ops
was third among qualified first basement and as one hundred
and forty WRC plus was second only to Pee Alonzo's.
He cut a strikeout rate, finished sixteenth in MVP voting,
and still walked away with no hardware.

Speaker 1 (29:25):
Tree Turner had a milestone season in Philly that seems
to have flown under the radar.

Speaker 2 (29:29):
He won the Phillies first batting title since nineteen fifty
eight with a point three ZHO four average, But the
real story was his defense. At age thirty two, he
went from a minus three outs above average to a
plus seventeen, a career best, a batting title, and a
defensive renaissance all in one awardless season. And in the outfield,
sou Freelick of the Brewers a solid point seventy five

(29:49):
to six ops with elite defense, racking up seven outs
above average. And we have to give a nod to
a manager too. John Schrider of the Blue Jays took
his team from worse to first in the Al East
and came within two outs of a World Series. He
deserved more Manager of the Year consideration.

Speaker 1 (30:05):
Let's end with a look at some of a later
or maybe darker history of the game. This time of year,
we have to revisit the legendary Dodgers' pool party feud.

Speaker 2 (30:14):
This is a great story. It's all about Chase Field
and its famous outfield pool. The feud started in twenty
thirteen when the Dodgers clinched the nl wes there and
celebrated by taking a splash in.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
Their pool, a move that was not well received.

Speaker 2 (30:27):
Not at all. The Diamondback CEO called it disrespectful and classless,
and it cemented the rivalry. A decade later, the d
Backs get their revenge, sweeping the Dodgers in the twenty
twenty three NLDS and throwing a pool party of their own.
Their ace, Zach Gallon even declared, that's our pool. It
just shows how personal these rivalries can be.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
We also have a fun story about Mooki Bets. It's
wild to think he almost wasn't a baseball player at all.

Speaker 2 (30:52):
It really is. It came out that Mooky almost quit
baseball in the miners to go play college basketball. He
was serious enough about it that even scheduled is act
to apply to college. Given his incredible career, it's just
wild to think we almost missed out on one of
the game's brightest stars.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
And speaking of different paths, this time of year has
seen some huge, franchise altering deals that either led to
greatness or decades of regret.

Speaker 2 (31:17):
Oh yeah, you look back at the infamous Christmas Week deals,
the Dodgers signing Yamamoto for three hundred and twenty five
million dollars. On the other end, the disaster contract the
Giants gave Barry Zito for one hundred and twenty six
million dollars. The off season is just littered with brilliance
and failure.

Speaker 1 (31:33):
But the trade that set the stage for one of
the greatest regular seasons in history happened around Christmas in
nineteen ninety nine.

Speaker 2 (31:39):
That was the Padres acquiring Brett Boone from the Braves.
Boone was just a journeyman when the Mariners signed him
the next year, their GM just called him a proven
run producer. A year later, Boone turns into a different person,
posts a seven point eight war season in two thousand
and one and sets up that incredible one hundred and
sixteen win Mariners run. It proved sometimes the biggest deals
come from the most unassuming trades.

Speaker 1 (32:00):
Wow, we've covered everything from eighty six million dollar extensions
to historical feuds and the growing crisis around sports integrity.
What really stands out to you in this landscape as
we head into the new.

Speaker 2 (32:12):
Year, What stands out to me is just the stark
contrast between the teams ready to spend, like the Blue
Jays making aggressive moves while eyeing Tucker or Bashett and
the teams committed to that slow, painful rebuild like the
Cardinals and Nationals. You have to wonder how long those
smaller market fan bases will tolerate seeing generational talents like
Urakami go somewhere else when their own need for power

(32:35):
is so obvious.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
It's a fascinating inflection point, isn't it, especially with so
many of those top free agents still waiting for that
one big domino to fall.

Speaker 2 (32:41):
And you know, given that high profile trade of Jeff
McNeil and the Met's willingness to pay a significant chunk
of his salary almost eight million dollars just to acquire
a high risk, seventeen year old Cuban relief prospect, it
raises a really important question in today's baseball economy. Is
paying to trade? A proven veteran for a high risk
reward prospect of the new inevitable cost of accelerating a rebuild.

(33:03):
It that's a fascinating and frankly expensive precedent, something for
you to chew on as the calendar flips
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