December 10, 2025 • 38 mins
Fresh out of a chaotic week in Orlando, this episode drops you right into the heart of the MLB Winter Meetings – a four-day stretch where the market didn’t just warm up, it blew apart. The hosts walk through how a flurry of early mega-deals essentially set the going rate for elite talent in a matter of hours, reshaping the entire 2026 landscape before some GMs even had time to unpack their suitcases. They start with the two “detonations” that reset the market: Edwin Díaz’s record-shattering three-year, $69 million deal with the Dodgers and Kyle Schwarber’s five-year, $150 million return to Philadelphia. You’ll hear why Díaz was a necessity for a shaky L.A. bullpen, how his AAV instantly raised the floor for every high-leverage reliever, and why Schwarber’s contract not only locks in the Phillies’ win-now core but also becomes the benchmark number looming over Pete Alonso’s stalled negotiations with the Mets – and his meetings with the Red Sox and Orioles. From there, the show digs into the domino effect: the Mets’ high-risk pivot to Devin Williams, bullpen reshaping in Detroit and Tampa Bay, Brad Keller’s growing market as a swingman, and the latest wave of high-upside international returns like Cody Ponce and Anthony Kay. The hosts then shift to a trade market that’s hotter than the free-agent board, breaking down why Ketel Marte is on the block before his 10-and-5 rights kick in, why Edward Cabrera is the likeliest Marlins arm to move, and how the Tigers are boxed into a franchise-defining decision on two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The episode also zooms out to bigger organizational pivots. You’ll hear how the Twins slammed the brakes on a sell-off and flipped back into buyers, why the Cardinals under new GM Shane Bloom are embracing an “urgent rebuild” and listening on stars like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado, and how the Guardians and Rockies are trying to build their future through a mix of draft capital, player development, and a full-blown embrace of analytics. Off the field, the hosts unpack a Hall of Fame ballot that finally ushers Jeff Kent into Cooperstown while all but slamming the door on Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, the draft lottery that hands a huge lifeline to the White Sox (and a surprise top-four pick to the Giants), the nuances of the Rule 5 draft and the kinds of players contenders quietly target there, and the early shape of Team USA’s loaded 2026 World Baseball Classic roster. They close by breaking down MLB’s new flexible national TV package with ESPN and what the integration of MLB.TV into the ESPN app means for how fans will actually watch games next season. By the end, you’ll understand not just who signed where, but how the prices for closers and sluggers were reset overnight, why the trade market for frontline pitching and impact bats is about to go nuclear, and why the philosophical tug-of-war in St. Louis between an urgent rebuild and the traditional “Cardinal Way” might be the defining storyline of the next two seasons.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome back. We are fresh out of Orlando, where the
MLB Winter Meetings didn't just open, basically.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Exploded, oh absolutely.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
For four days, that Grand Ballroom was just the epicenter
of everything, contracts, trades, rumors. I mean, it feels like
they've rewritten the entire landscape for the twenty twenty sixth season.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It really does.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
We've got a massive stack of notes here, articles, front
office chatter, all the analysis, and we are going to
unpack every single crucial moment, from the huge signings to
the you know, the quiet strategic moves that might define
the next decade of baseball.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
You could argue it was the most volatile start to
the Winter Meetings we've seen in a long long time.
Deals that you normally see drag out into late January,
they were getting done, like the first seventy two hours,
so fast. And this wasn't just about spending money. It
was about setting instant precedents. Every GM in that room
had to react and react immediately to the market that
was set by those first couple of big signings.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Okay, let's unpack those What were those initial detonations, because
it really felt like the entire market for pitching and
hitting was just defined within hours.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, the biggest fireworks, they really came from two players
who had declined their qualifying.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
Offers right they were signaling they wanted max value.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
And they absolutely got it. The first one was the
relief pitching market. The ceiling was just instantly reset by
Edwin Diaz. He agreed to a three year contract with
the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Three years, sixty nine million dollars. That's a twenty three
million dollar aav. I mean, that just shatters the old
record for a reliever.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It does.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
But for the Dodgers, this wasn't really a luxury signing,
was it. It was more of a necessity.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
That's exactly right. You look at the Dodgers' bullpen last year,
a collective VRA of four point twenty seven, and they
blew a staggering twenty seven saves.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Wow, tied for seventh most in the league.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Exactly. Their instability in the ninth inning was their achilles heel.
It's really what stopped them from getting a third straight title.
Diaz a three time All Star who's proven when he's
healthy he is the most dominant closer in the game,
and he.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Had a great twenty twenty five coming back from that
big injury a.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Stellar one point sixty three Era twenty eight saves for
the Mets. He struck out ninety eight batters in just
over sixty six innings. So this deal, it doesn't just
plug a hole. It turns their biggest weakness into an
absolutely lethal strength.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And the contract structure itself is fascinating as met It
really is. It's a shorter term, just the three years,
but that AAV is just it's incredible. So what does
that do to the rest of the reliever market.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Well, it creates this immediate tension. You know, it tells
every other elite setup man, every other closer that the
floor for their salary just moved way.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Up, even if they don't have DS's track record, right.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Even without that same pedigree. So for teams with big
bullpen needs, you think about the Astros, the Phillies, maybe
the Yankees. They now know they have to set aside
upwards of fifteen million a year for their high leverage arms.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
So it forces their hand.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
It forces them to either pay that premium or pivot
really aggressively to the trade market to find some cost
controlled options. Yeah, and that's a key theme we saw
play out all week.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Okay, So while the pitching market is resetting, the offensive
market got defined by the Phillies bringing back a very
familiar face.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Kyle Schwarber re signed with Philadelphia for five years, one
hundred and fifty million dollars. Wow, And that just immediately
took the top power bat off the board. It solidified
the core of that Phillies lineup. I mean, Drum's almost
thirty three, but he wasn't just rewarded for his power numbers.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
And the power numbers are huge, right, averaging forty home
runs the last two seasons.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
They are, but it's also about his presence in that clubhouse.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Well, for the Phillies, they're in a very specific window,
aren't they. They've won the NL East two years running,
but then they suffer these back to back losses in
the NLDS.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
First of the Mets than the Dodgers.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Yeah, so keeping Schwarber keeping that leadership, I mean, manager
Thompson called him a huge part of our ball club.
It felt like a non negotiable for them, no matter
his age or his defensive limitations.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
It's a huge commitment of winning right now. But the
really strategic takeaway from that Schwarber deal. It connects directly
to the other big slugger still out there, Peter Alonzo
Pete Alonso Shorever's thirty million dollars AAV just set the
floor for what a premier slugger can ask for. It
created a very clear benchmark for Alonzo's agents to aim for.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
And just to close the loop on Diaz leaving the Mets,
they do get a compensatory draft pick, right.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
They do after the fourth round, which is, you know,
a nice little consolation.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Prize, but it's not a closer, no, And now.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
They have this gigantic hole that Diaz left, and they
had to show the fans, show the clubhouse that they
weren't just going to take the pick and call it
a day.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Okay, here's where it gets really interesting. How did the
Mets president David Sterns pivot so fast after losing his
star closer to a division well not a division rival,
but an NL rival. And what does that replacement deal
tell us about their stomach for risk.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Stern's moved so quickly, I mean exception fast. He locked
up Devin Williams to a three year, fifty one million
dollar contract, and by getting Williams before Diaz officially signed
with LA Stearns was able to kind of soften the
pr blow. He made sure they still landed an elite arm,
even if it's one with some recent volatility.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So they weren't going to get into a bidding war
for Diaz once they had Williams lined up exactly.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Stearns later concerned that the Williams deal impacted their pursuit.
It suggested that they weren't willing to go higher on
the aav or at another year once they had a
fallback of that caliber.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But that Williams contract, that's a high stake scandal. His
twenty twenty five season was just it was a statistical
mess compared to his career, a total anomaly.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Yeah, he had a four point seventy nine era blew
four saves. He really struggled under that New York spotlight
with the Yankees. You know, he lost the closer job twice.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
Yeah, I remember those three appearances in April where he
just got shelled.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
And that volatility is the big question mark hanging over
that fifty one million dollar guarantee. But yeah, if you're
the Mets, you have to look deeper than just the era. Okay,
this contract is a huge bet on his underlying metrics.
In twenty twenty five, his feeling independent pitching was way
better than his era. It was around three point two.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
So that suggests some bad luck, bad defense behind.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Him, a lot of it, and more importantly, his expected era,
his XRA was closer to two point eight zero, which
is still elite. The Mets analytics department, they clearly see
a pitcher whose I mean, his change up wiff rate
was still incredibly high, was still dominant. The results were
just tainted by circumstances.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
So they're basically buying the pre twenty twenty five Williams,
but at a twenty twenty five discount, and they're banking
on everything just regressing back to the mean.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
That and they're banking on the stadium change. City Field
is statistically the most pitcher friendly park he's ever called.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Home, especially compared to Yankee Stadium.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Oh yeah, and he finished the season strong too, nine
straight scoreless appearances plus four more in the playoffs. So
if the Mets are right about the park and the
bounce back, Steel looks like a heist. But if they're wrong,
given the recent history, the pressure on him in Queen's
is going to be immediate and intense.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Okay, let's pivot back to the hitters. With Schwarber signed,
Pete Alonso is now, without a doubt, the top power
bat level. He's reportedly looking for a five year deal
in that one fifty range, you know, just like Schwarber,
and his numbers back it up, averaging thirty nine homers
one hundred and fifteen RBIs since twenty twenty two. So
why is there a stall in the talks?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
It really comes down to two things, age and defense
and the Mets' new philosophy under President Stearn's Okay, so
Schwarber is almost thirty three, but Alonzo's getting close to
thirty one. The Mets are reportedly really reluctant to offer
more than three years. They want that long term payroll.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Flexibility, and they want to improve their team.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Defense, which has been weak. And Alonso, for all his
production with the bat, is statistically a below average first basement.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
So you have the face of the franchise on one
side and a new, real stringent organizational philosophy on the other.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Exactly, and that hesitation from the Mets is a massive
opportunity for some American League teams, right Alonzo was scheduled
to meet with both the Boston Red Sox and the
Baltimore Orioles in Orlando. That signals really high interest for
both of them.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Boston under Craig Breslo, they are desperate for a right
handed slugger to put in the middle of that order.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Desperate to pair with Tristan Gussas. They have the money
and they have the immediate need to give Alonzo that
five year deal. The Mets are balking app and what.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
About the Orioles. They're built around this young, controllable core,
but they just they need that impact, righty bat to
get them over the top in the Al East.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
You absolutely do adding a bat like Alonso. I mean,
thirty eight homers, one hundred and twenty six RBIs and
in NL leading forty one doubles last year. That could
be the final piece that makes them the consensus World
Series favorites.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
So for the Mets, the risk here is huge, enormous.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
If they won't go past three years, they don't just
lose their most popular play, they could lose him to
a major AL contender, and that might force owner Steve
Cohen to step in at the last minute. That whole
storyline is still hanging over the end of the meetings.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Let's move away from the big names for a minute.
We saw some really critical deals for bullpen depth and
some international reclamation projects. Let's start with Detroit resigning their
closer Kyle Finnegan.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Yeah, that was a smart, solid move for the Tigers.
They got Finigan at the deadline last year and he
just instantly stabilized their late innings. Posted a one point
five over sixteen games.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Super impressive.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
So they gave him a very reasonable two year deal
nineteen million can get up to twenty million with incentives.
And this is on the heels of his twenty twenty
four All Star season with the Nationals, where he had
thirty eight saves.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
So the natural question is how aj Hinch is going
to use him. Is Finnegan the guy in the ninth
or did they go with a committee since Will vest
did a pretty good job closing for most of twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Given Finnegan's experience and that new contract, I think he
comes in as the primary ninth inning guy. But Hinch
loves flexibility. Think it's a powerful riety. He should love
the deep fence as a Kamerica Park and Having that
depth lets them protect will Vest's workload and deploy their
best guys based on matchups, not just rigid roles.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Speaking of other high leverage arms, Pete Fairbanks, the Rays
declined his eleven million dollar option. He's drawing a lot
of interest. I'm hearing the Marlins and the Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Fairbanks is a really interesting case. Pitch to a two
point eighty three ERA over sixty one appearances last season,
which is great. Yeah, but his injury history, specifically these
persistent shoulder issues, that's what led the Rays to say
no to the option. He's probably going to land a
two or three year deal, maybe in the eight to
ten million AAV range.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
So teams are just betting that the elite stuff is
worth the risk.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
They're betting that the elite velocity and that nasty splitter
are worth the gamble, especially for a late inning role.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Now we also have the ultimate flex player, Brad Keller,
getting a lot of buzz. The Cubs used him in
the bullpen, but he's getting looks as a starter too.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, Keller is going to command a pre significant contract
because of that flexibility. One projection I saw put him
at a two year, twenty three million dollar deal. The
Cubs won him back as a multi inning reliever, but
the Tigers are reportedly interested in putting him back in
the rotation, which is a role he has more experience
in but less recent success.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
And the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
The Yankees, who are always worried about injury depth, they
see him as the perfect swingman, a reliever who can
step into the rotation if Cole or Rodin has a setback.
So the team that signs him is buying versatility. But
only one of his roles, reliever, was really effective last year.
That's what makes the negotiation tricky.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
And we can't ignore the global market, can we. It
just continues to be a gold mine for teams that
are willing to gamble on players reinventing themselves overseas.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
It really is.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
We've got Cody Ponce coming back to the Blue Jays
and Anthony Kaye joining the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Ponts's deal is a big one, three years, thirty million.
This is for a pitcher who really strugg in the
majors before, but he came back completely remade after his
time in the KBO.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
He won the MVP over there, right, KBOMVP.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
And their Cy Young equivalent in twenty twenty five went
seventeen to one with a stunning one point eight to
nine ERA.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So what changed. It can't just be the competition level.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
It's mostly velocity and confidence. He came back hitting the
upper nineties of this fastball. That's a huge jump from
his ninety three mile prol average a few years ago.
And while yeah, the KBO is often compared to double
A talent wise, the key for MLB teams is that
Ponts showed durability, he showed work ethic, and he evolved.
His stuff is a high upside gamble, a lot like
(12:38):
when the Dbacks brought back Merril Kelly from the KBO,
which worked out great.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
And Anthony k signed a two year deal with the
White Sox after two good years in Japan.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
K story is even more instructive for pitchers who need
to adapt. He was an NPB with the Yokohama DNA
based Stars, posted a two point five to three ERA
over forty eight starts.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
And the hitting approach in Japan is very.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Different, completely different. It's all about running up pitch counts,
fouling off everything. It forced him to develop a crucial
new pitch, a two seam fastball. Ah, that pitch, let
him get soft contact and fight back against that relentless
plate discipline. So the White Sox are buying a picture
who has proven he can evolve his repertoire against a
high level, different kind of offensive approach. It's not just
(13:22):
a physical change, it's a strategic and mechanical upgrade.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
All right, Let's shift gears completely now to the trade market.
You mentioned earlier that this year feels especially ripe for trades,
particularly for starting pitching. Why is the trade volume so
high right now?
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Oh, we're seeing a bunch of factors all come together. First,
you've got multiple teams that are in their final year
of control with a star pitcher like Trek scooball right. Second,
the free agent market for elite starting pitching was actually
pretty weak this year. Yeah, so teams who missed out
the Dodgers, the Red Sox, maybe the Orioles, they're forced
to get their guys via trade. Okay. And third, you
(13:58):
have several mid market teams like the Marlins and the
d Backs who have realized their organizational timelines just don't
match up with their current star players, so that forces
them to pivot, forces them to pivot hard and try
to get the prospects and control talent they need for
a real rebuild.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
The biggest position player getting all the buzz is Katel
Marte from the Diamondbacks. He finished third in the nl
MVP voting in twenty twenty four. He's been incredibly productive,
So why would the d Backs even think about moving
a star on an affordable contract.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
It's a desperate move to try and stabilize their rotation
long term. The Diamondbacks are looking at a major pitching crisis.
Zach Gallon and Meryl Kelly are probably gone a free
agency in the next year or two, and Cortin Burns
is recovering from Tommy John He's probably going to miss
most of twenty twenty six. Wow. So GM Mike Kaysen
knows that unless he can get high end, major league
(14:52):
ready starting pitching, the d Backs are going to fall
out of contention fast. Marte is their most valuable trade.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Ship, and I hear the asking price is just astronomical.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
It is. They're asking for a top tier starting pitcher
with multiple years of control, plus significant major league ready
position player talent. Hazen is negotiating from weakness. He's waiting
for a franchise altering offer, and.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
There's a ticking clock on this whole thing that makes
the winter meetings the perfect time to make a deal.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
This is absolutely crucial context. Marte's ten and five rights
kick in this April.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Okay, so remind everyone what ten and five rights are.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Ten years of service time in the majors, with five
of those years with his current team. It gives the
player the right to veto any trade. Marte hits that
mark in April. If the d Backs wait until the
summer deadline, Marte has a veto that severely limits who
they can trade him to, and it just tanks their leverage.
They have to move him now to get the best return.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
So which teams are lining up for him?
Speaker 2 (15:51):
It's a strong list. The Seattle Mariners, the Pirates, the Tigers,
the Red Sox, and the Blue Jayson. ESPN's Jeff passed
and even predicted that if the Mariners get Martey, they
instantly become the American League favorites for twenty twal six.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Wow, that's a big statement.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
It is, but Marte offers fifteen point three war over
his last three seasons. He can play multiple positions and
he's on a cost controlled deal. The risk is his
injury history and some anonymous reports last year about clubhouse friction.
That's why some teams are hesitant to meet Hayesan's sky
high price.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Okay, moving down to the pitching paradox in Miami, the
Marlins have controllable starting pitching, but they desperately need offense,
especially a first baseman who's the most likely arm to
be moved.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Edward Cabrera is the consensus favorite. He's only twenty seven,
he has three more years of team control, and he
posted a solid three point five to three ERA in
twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Five, So why am well?
Speaker 2 (16:43):
The strategic reason is that he's out of options. The
Marlins can't send him down to the miners without putt
him on waivers, which basically forces their hand.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
And he has electric stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Electric stuff sinker in the upper nineties, a ninety six
mile pour changeup and elite breaking balls just nasty.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
But his biggest issue has always been durability, hasn't it Historically?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yes, he made a career high twenty six starts in
twenty twenty five, but he did deal with some elbow
discomfort and a sprain that raised some Tommy John concerns
mid season.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
So they're shopping him now while his value.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Is high, exactly while the velocity is up and the
injury concern is manageable. The Baltimore Orioles are reportedly the
most advanced in trade talks. Cabrero would be a top
of the rotation arm that fits their contention window perfectly.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
And the former Cy Young winner Sandialcina is he really
off the table.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
He's a long shot for a trade even with a
higher profile. He's thirty, He's coming off Tommy John, which
creates risk, and while his overall ERA last year was
high at five point three six, he was spectacular at
the end of the season, a two point six to
eight RA in his last eight starts. And crucially, he
is a huge clubhouse leader, the face of the franchise.
(17:54):
The Marlins front office still thinks they can contend in
twenty twenty six, and trading Alcintara with send a terrible
message to the fans and the players that they're giving up.
He also has fewer years of control than Carbrera and
has owed more money, so Cabrera is just the cleaner trade.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Let's talk about the Detroit Tigers. And their dilemma with
the two time Alsacia Young Winner Turk Scuball. He's entering
his final year of team control. What's the pressure dynamic
like in that front office?
Speaker 2 (18:20):
The pressure is immense on President Scott Harris and GM
Jeff Greenberg. They've been criticized for being way too cautious
in recent offseason.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, they haven't made any big Bowl moves.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
None, and the team finished twenty twenty five and basically
the same spot as the year before. There's a feeling
that this version of the Tigers has kind of.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Peaked and Scooball is going to command a massive extension,
a huge.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
One, maybe in the two hundred million dollar range. So
the front office is listening to offers. Harrison Greenberg absolutely
need a bounce back season in twenty twenty six. They
need to make a move that either locks Goooble up
long term or brings back a return that just fundamentally
speeds up their rebuild.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
It's a playing It isn't an option.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Letting him walk for a draft pick next year is
not an option for their job security.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
And adding another layer of complexity to this already tight market.
The Minnesota Twins just did a major strategic one to eighty.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Well, they slammed the brakes on the expected selloff. Hard
Twins president Derek Falvey came out and explicitly confirmed the
deam was looking to add to the roster for twenty
twenty six. He emphatically said they will not trade top
guys like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, or Byron Buxton.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
That's a huge pivot because last year they were in
full cell mode'll sell off.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
They dealt five of their top relievers for prospects.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
So what changed their minds from selling to buying.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
I think it's two things. First, the quality of the
return they got last year was really good. They got
high quality, major league ready talent and good prospects, which
suggested the rebuilt timeline was short okay. And second, the
financial flexibility they got when the pool Ad family took
the team off the market after dealing with some debt.
That frees up some payroll space. They're projecting a payer
(20:00):
around ninety six million for twenty twenty six. They're committed
to competing in that weak al central and.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
The implication for the rest of the league is huge.
It is the trade market for starting pitchers in center
fielders just got a lot tighter it.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
Did, especially for clothes like the Mets and Astros who
were linked to Buxton. Now the Twins are buyers, they
need bullpen help to replace the guys they traded, and
they need one or two impact bats with power. So
this just intensifies the pressure on teams with available pitchers
like Freddie Peralta or Mackenzie Gore because the list of
targets just shrank.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Speaking of philosophical shifts, let's talk about the Saint Louis Cardinals.
They are in full on rebuild mode under their new
GM chain Bloom. What's the temperature in Saint Louis? Is
it a fire sale?
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Bloom is operating with what he calls urgency, which is
a word you almost never hear during a rebuild. He's
pushing his team to get rid of the idea of slow,
patient moves. The Cardinals are listening to offers for almost
every star who doesn't fit a long term rebuild. Brendan Donovan, Nolan, Aernado, Wilson, Contreras,
Alec Burlson, Jojo Romero. The goal is maximum future value.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
Let's zoom in on Brendan Donovan. The Yankees buzz is
just overwhelming. Why are the Yankees so focused on landing
the twenty twenty five All Star.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
Donovan is a perfect fit for what the Yankees have
needed for years. He gives them elite defensive versatility all
over the infield and outfield, which is huge in the
Al East. And more importantly, he's a left handed bat
with a high on base ability, something that line up
desperately lacked last year.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
And the two sides match up well for.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
A trade they do. The word out of Orlando is
that the Cardinals knee pitching prospects and the Yankees have
a bunch of cost controlled arms they can offer to
Kickstar Blooms rebuild guys like Will Warren, Lewis Gill Clark Schmidt.
The feeling in the industry is that a Donovan deal
is going to get done very very soon.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
And Nolan Aernaudo, the ten time Gold Glover in Icon,
is he really on the block?
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Bloom confirmed they won't just release him, but he's been
very opened that the Star has expressed interest in finding
a different fit, and apparently the list of teams he'd
degree to join has gotten longer interesting and one of
the teams showing more interest is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Especially
if Aeronado's old teammate Paul Goldschmid goes back to Arizona
as a free agent. The Cardinals are basically preparing for
(22:19):
an avalanche of moves. It just depends on which star
brings back the best haul.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
First, before we move to the draft, let's quickly touch
on a completed trade and some lingering outfield rumors. The
Angels got infielder Von Grissom from the Red Sox. Seems
like a low key move, but the implications are interesting.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Yeah, it was a prospect swap that really signals the
Red Sox are giving up on a guy they just acquired.
The angel sent a minor league outfielder Isaiah Jackson, their
number twenty five prospect, to Boston for Grissom, and Grissom
for Boston was part of that Chris Sale trade return.
But he just struggled badly. He spent all of twenty
twenty five in Triple A, batted just point one to
nine zero in the majors in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
Four, so CBO Craig Breslow basically said he didn't have
a pass to the big leagues in Boston, pretty much,
So why are the Angels and Perrimanas betting on him?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
The Angels clearly think they're getting a big league player
with upside who just needs to change the scenery. They're
betting on the raw talent, especially since he was a
good hitter in the miners. Minesian praised his staff for
finding a guy they think can contribute. It's a classic.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
Bilo move for them, and the Dodgers' outfield defense still
an issue, is top of mind. They shot down rumors
about trade and Tascar Hernandez.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Yeah, Jim Gummes is very firm, he said, Trading Hernandez
is not something we anticipate at all. Okay, but they
desperately need a defensive upgrade, specifically a true center fielder.
The goal is to get a center fielder which lets
them move Andy Page's and his plus arm to right field,
and that.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
Would shift Hernandez to left exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
And Hernandez's defense is a bit shoddy, so that one
move instantly fortifies their entire outfield defense and saves them
a ton of runs.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
And we have to mention Scott Boras, who used his
time to cryptic, described the market for Cody Bellinger.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Boras is the master of the dramatic quote, isn't he?
He name dropped like eight teams in one sentence.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Now, I see if I can remember it. Great players
see red if they have a big bat yanked out
of their lineup. I haven't met a team that dodges
a five tool player.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
To fill the center field need. Is a giant step
toward the playoffs. I mean, it's performance art.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
It really is outfielders that fly with power. They're rare birds.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
It's incredible, but it highlights the robust market for Bellinger.
His camp and Kyle Tucker's camp are still kind of intertwined.
Bellinger is projected to land a big contract, maybe six years,
one sixty.
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Five, and he's a fit for so many teams because
of his versatility.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
The Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets. He can play first base,
which is crucial for teams still in on Alonzo, and
he offers gold glove defense in center field, where the
market is incredibly thin now that Grisham and Mullins are signed, and.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
His availability sets the market for the other center fielders
like Harrison Bader.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
H getting interest from the Giants, Phillies, and Royals. He
had a nice bounce back season in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
He's the defensive specialists totally.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
Yeah, he slashed point two seven, seven point three four
to seven point four to four nine with seventeen homers,
But his value is all about that superb defense. He's
expected to get a simpler, two year, twenty six million
dollars deal for a team like the Giants in that
huge park, A defender like him is extremely valuable.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Let's transition from the here and now to long term planning.
Let's talk about the draft lottery and the upcoming Rule
five draft.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, the draft lottery results are they're just existential for
teams that are doing a true rebuild for the fourth time,
the pingpong balls decided the top six picks, and the
implications for these organizations are just massive.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
The Chicago White Sox were the biggest winners.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Right they were, with the best odds at twenty seven
point seven three percent. They got the number one overall pick,
a huge moment for GM Chris Getz, who is overseeing
a pretty painful rebuild.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
They even brought in Harold Baines to rep them.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Their last number one pick from nineteen seventy seven. Get
stressed that getting the top amateur talent is the single
most important thing for their organization right now. It's a
huge psychological and talent boost.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
The Rays landed at number two, Twins at number three,
But the biggest surprise jump came from the nl.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
West, the San Francisco Giants. They secured the number four pick,
leaping all the way from their projected fifteenth spot after
finishing eighty one eighty one.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
That's a massive win for them, a.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Huge organizational win. That one jump drastically increases the ceiling
of the talent they can get. And to round out
the top six, you have the Pirates at five and
the Royals at six.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
And some teams were ineligible to pick that high right.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
The Rockies, Angels, and Nationals couldn't pick higher than ten
to twelve because of repeating lottery appearances.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
So looking ahead to twenty twenty six, who are the
top targets for these teams?
Speaker 2 (26:50):
The early mock drafts are all about college shortstops. Roguchilowski
from UCLA is the consensus projected number one pick for
the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I've heard him called the best all around college shortstop
since Tulo.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Since Troy Tulabiski in two thousand and five. Yeah, he
hit point three to five to three with twenty three
homers and seventy four RBIs in sixty six games last season.
That is elite offense from a premium defensive spot.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
And who else are the top teams looking at?
Speaker 2 (27:17):
The Rays at number two will probably target Grady Emberson,
the top prep shortstop. He's a high ceiling defensive wizard.
The Twins at three might look at Justin Lebron, a
shortstop from Alabama with five tool potential, and the Giants
with their lucky number four pick, are linked to Drew Burris,
an outfielder from Georgia Tech, a slugger with solid tools
and center.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Now let's talk about the Rule five Draft, which happens
this week. This is always confusing for people. Can you
just give us a clear, concise breakdown of the rules
in why it matter?
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Sure? The Rule five draft basically exists to stop teams
from hoarding MLB caliber talent in the miners forever. The
core of it is protection deadlines. Players signed at eighteen
or younger have to be protected on the forty man
roster within five seasons. Those signed at nineteen or older,
it's four seasons. If a player is left unprotected, another
(28:06):
team can draft them.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
And what's the cost, and what's the big catch that
makes it such a high risk move.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
The selecting team pays one hundred thousand dollars. But here's
the catch. That player has to stay on your twenty
six man active roster for the entire next season, a
whole year, the entire year. If they don't, if you
try to send them down, you have to offer them
back to their original team for fifty thousand year. That
mandatory roster spot is White teams are so careful about
(28:33):
who they pick.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
We know ROBERTA. Clemente is the most famous success story, and.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
More recently Shane Smith. He went from being overlooked by
the Brewers to making the All Star team with the
White Sox after they picked him. A rare but great
success story.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
And the players who get picked usually fit a certain.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Type right very specific archetypes. First, pitchers you can convert
to relievers. Guys wear their best stuff, high velocity, a
nasty secondary pitch can play up in short bursts like
Felix around Connor. Nolan and Brock Salvage fit that mold.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
And the second archetype speed.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
And defense outfielders, guys you can use as a fourth
or fifth outfielder and a pinch runner. Players like Alan
Castro and Gavin Cross have elite speed and defensive skills,
but maybe not the hit tool yet. They're appealing because
you can kind of hide them on the bench and
still fulfill that roster spot requirement.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Sticking with player development, let's look at the Cleveland Guardians.
They had the number one pick two years ago. How
is that twenty twenty four drash class looking to impact
the twenty twenty six team, especially since the Guardians are
expected to keep their payroll tight well, the.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Guardian's entire strategy has built on their ability to grow
talent cheaply, and all eyes are on Travis Pizana, that
number one overall pick.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
He flew through the miners in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Five, rocketed through he reached double A and triple A,
posted a really solid one thirty seven WRC plus find.
The consensus is he's the most likely player from that
class to reach the majors in twenty twenty six, maybe
even break camp.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
With the team, But he he has a couple of
hurdles to clear before he can be a real impact.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Player he does. First, he's been dealing with an oblique
injury that he really needs to get past this offseason.
And second, his strikeout rate it was a high twenty
four point three percent in the upper miners. That needs
to come down for him to unlock his full power.
If he could do that, he could be an immediate force.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
At second base and beyond Bizana, who else can provide
that cheap help they need?
Speaker 2 (30:23):
The Guardians pitching pipeline is always reliable. Raising Er Slefinger,
Sean Mattson, and Logan maguire all showed promise and have
the stuff to be bullpen arms next year. That's cost
effective relief depth, which is essential for a team on
a budget. And their catcher Jacob Cozart, a second round pick,
he's on track to provide death later in the twenty
twenty sixth season.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
So overall was a good class.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
A great class. About two thirds of that twenty twenty
four draft class is tracking to have a viable shot
at making a big leag Groster. Eventually, that's a fantastic
return and it's the lifeblood of that organization. Moving away
from transactions now, the meetings always bring some crucial off
field news and organizational changes. Let's talk about the Hall
of Fame announcements. We had one electee and the effective
(31:06):
permanent exclusion of two controversial stars. Jeff Kent was elected
to the Hall of Fame, and that was a huge
emotional story, especially for fans who felt his production was
always overlooked. Seven time All Star set the career home
run record for a second basement his election as Hall
share Jane Forbes Clark noted, now opens up spots on
(31:27):
the Contemporary Era Committee ballot for other deserving guys.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
But that anecdote about Kent's election, that's one of those
moments that reminds you why we love the sport.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
It's an incredibly powerful story. A friend of Kent's, Paul Sloane,
a huge Giants fan, met him at spring training in
nineteen ninety nine, and in this moment of just pure
fan enthusiasm, Sloane yelled at him, Jeff Kent, you're going
to the Hall of Fame, and Kent gave him a
little wave back and sloan. Sloane tragically died on nine
to eleven. His friend said the Kent's election finally fulfilled
(31:55):
that unlikely prophetic moment from years ago. It's just a
wonderful reminder that these achievements are tied to fans and memories.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
On the complete opposite end of that spectrum, Barry Bonds
and Roger Clemens were denied entry again. They received fewer
than five votes each from the committee. This pretty much
shuts the door on their Hall of Fame hopes, doesn't it.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
It really does. Clark stated that the committee members view
the steroids era similarly to how the BBWAA writers did,
which explains the low vote count and the denial is
huge because they are now barred from that committee's ballot
for the next three year.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
Cycle, so if they fail again in twenty thirty one, if.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
They fail again, they could be permanently barred from future
ballots unless the rules themselves change. This effectively closes the
door on two of the most statistically dominant players ever,
confirming that the shadow of that era continues to dictate
who gets into Cooperstown.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Institutional change was also happening in Colorado, a team that
is notorious for its struggles to develop pitching. They announced
a major overhaul of their pitching staff, prioritizing analytics.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
This is a signal from the Rockies front office that
they are finally committed to modernizing. They hired a Lawnikman
as their new major league pitching coach. rightI Likeman is
highly praised for his innovative approach. He even experimented with
calling pitches from the dugout when he was with the Marlins,
which shows a willingness to challenge old school thinking.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
And the person they hired as their director of pitching
used to work at drive Line Baseball. That seems like
a pretty clear sign of where they're headed.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
Bringing in Matt Daniels, a former drive Line employee, into
a leadership role, is a game changer for the Rockies.
Drive Line is the epicenter of data driven player development.
This shift, along with hiring Gabe Reebis and Matt Bushman,
is a clear effort to break the old mold and
finally find some success in that brutal pitching environment at
Coors Field.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
Let's touch quickly on the upcoming twenty twenty six World
Baseball Classic. Team USA is confirming some serious star power
they are.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Team USA just announced four new position players Kyle Schwarber,
Gunner Henderson, Bryce Terrang and Will.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
Smith, and they joined captain Aaron Judge.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
And Corbin Carroll, Piekrow, Armstrong and Cal Rawley. That is
an incredibly powerful versible group for manager Mark DeRosa to
work with.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
And what's the latest on Mike Traut's participation.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Trout is still in the mix, but Deroza has a
tough decision about carrying a full time DH on a short,
high leverage roster. Trout has to weigh the tournament against
preparing for his sixteenth season with the Angels. Deroza also
confirmed that Trek Skubal is high on their wish list
for the pitching staff, which just shows they're trying to
get the absolute best players.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
We also had some interesting post mortems from managers looking
back at last season. Blue Jays manager John Schneider was
really vocal defending Isaiah Kiner Fileffa for getting thrown out
at the plate in Game seven of the World Series.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Yeah, this was a fascinating tactical defense from Schneider. He
said he watched the video a ton and insisted Kenner
Fileifa shouldn't be blamed for it. The runner took an
unusually short lead off third base, only about seven point
eight feet, and that was on the direction of the
third base coach why it was a tactical decision to
avoid a potential backpick play by Dodgers catcher Will Smith,
(35:11):
who loves to try that against lefties. Schneider was clear
they were prioritizing avoiding a double play or a pickoff,
not maximizing speed on the run. The manager defended the
strategy even though the result was bad.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
And finally, let's look at the business side of things,
specifically the new MLB METEA rights deal with ESPN for
the twenty twenty sixth season. The keyword seems to be flexibility.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
It is ESPN's new package has thirty exclusive national games,
but the structure is the key detail. They are no
longer locked into a specific weekly window like Sunday.
Speaker 1 (35:45):
Night Baseball, so that lets them follow the best storylines exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
They can capture key matchups throughout the week to maximize
fan interest. That said, the majority of the games will
still be on Wednesdays.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
What are some of the key dates we should circle
on our calendars.
Speaker 2 (35:58):
We've got a few big ones. The first exclusive regular
season game is Mets versus Dodgers on Wednesday, April fifteenth,
which is Jackie Robinson Day. We also get Yankees versus
Royals on Memorial Day, May twenty fifth. The second half
opener is Mets versus Phillies exclusively on ESPN, and the
Little League Classic with the Braves and Brewers will air
(36:19):
on Sunday, August twenty third.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
And the most exciting part for fans who just want
all the content in one.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Spot the integration of MLBtv into the ESPN app and ESPNVP.
Ashley O'Connor said, this move is all about bringing coverage
all in one place. It should make out of market
games much more accessible and will have some unique features
on the ESPN platform. It just simplifies the whole viewing experience.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
So what does this all mean for you the fan
as we come out of the winter meetings and head
toward the new year.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
It means the league is just moving at an unprecedented speed.
The market for elite talent is set. Closers cost twenty
three million a year and premier sluggers cost thirty million
a year. The biggest free agents, Torber and Diaz, are signed,
but the trademark, especially for starting pitching and guys like
Ketel Marte, is now dominating everything, and massive deals are
(37:06):
still pending, particularly with the Cardinals speeding up their rebuild,
and of course the White Sox got a huge future
boost by winning that number one pick.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
The stage is definitely set for a frantic winter.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
It is, and if you look at the most dramatic
and maybe the most conflicted pivot of the whole week,
it's what's happening in Saint Louis. Gmjan Bloom is trying
to rebuild with extreme urgency, but at the same time,
manager Oliver Marmle, who doesn't have a contract past twenty
twenty six, is supposed to uphold the Cardinal Way, which
is all about competitive excellence and discipline. So, considering the
(37:39):
huge multi season challenge of this aggressive rebuild and the
resistance that always comes with abandoning the Cardinal Way, how
much patience should Marmle really expect from the organization as
they try to do this massive project without just conceding
the next few seasons. That tension between Bloom's urgent strategy
and the organization's traditions, that is the core conflict that's
(38:01):
going to define Saint Louis for the next two years.
Welcome back. We are fresh out of Orlando, where the
MLB Winter Meetings didn't just open, basically.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Exploded, oh absolutely.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
For four days, that Grand Ballroom was just the epicenter
of everything, contracts, trades, rumors. I mean, it feels like
they've rewritten the entire landscape for the twenty twenty sixth season.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It really does.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
We've got a massive stack of notes here, articles, front
office chatter, all the analysis, and we are going to
unpack every single crucial moment, from the huge signings to
the you know, the quiet strategic moves that might define
the next decade of baseball.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
You could argue it was the most volatile start to
the Winter Meetings we've seen in a long long time.
Deals that you normally see drag out into late January,
they were getting done, like the first seventy two hours,
so fast. And this wasn't just about spending money. It
was about setting instant precedents. Every GM in that room
had to react and react immediately to the market that
was set by those first couple of big signings.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Okay, let's unpack those What were those initial detonations, because
it really felt like the entire market for pitching and
hitting was just defined within hours.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, the biggest fireworks, they really came from two players
who had declined their qualifying.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
Offers right they were signaling they wanted max value.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
And they absolutely got it. The first one was the
relief pitching market. The ceiling was just instantly reset by
Edwin Diaz. He agreed to a three year contract with
the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Three years, sixty nine million dollars. That's a twenty three
million dollar aav. I mean, that just shatters the old
record for a reliever.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It does.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
But for the Dodgers, this wasn't really a luxury signing,
was it. It was more of a necessity.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
That's exactly right. You look at the Dodgers' bullpen last year,
a collective VRA of four point twenty seven, and they
blew a staggering twenty seven saves.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Wow, tied for seventh most in the league.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Exactly. Their instability in the ninth inning was their achilles heel.
It's really what stopped them from getting a third straight title.
Diaz a three time All Star who's proven when he's
healthy he is the most dominant closer in the game,
and he.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Had a great twenty twenty five coming back from that
big injury a.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Stellar one point sixty three Era twenty eight saves for
the Mets. He struck out ninety eight batters in just
over sixty six innings. So this deal, it doesn't just
plug a hole. It turns their biggest weakness into an
absolutely lethal strength.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And the contract structure itself is fascinating as met It
really is. It's a shorter term, just the three years,
but that AAV is just it's incredible. So what does
that do to the rest of the reliever market.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Well, it creates this immediate tension. You know, it tells
every other elite setup man, every other closer that the
floor for their salary just moved way.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Up, even if they don't have DS's track record, right.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Even without that same pedigree. So for teams with big
bullpen needs, you think about the Astros, the Phillies, maybe
the Yankees. They now know they have to set aside
upwards of fifteen million a year for their high leverage arms.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
So it forces their hand.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
It forces them to either pay that premium or pivot
really aggressively to the trade market to find some cost
controlled options. Yeah, and that's a key theme we saw
play out all week.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Okay, So while the pitching market is resetting, the offensive
market got defined by the Phillies bringing back a very
familiar face.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Kyle Schwarber re signed with Philadelphia for five years, one
hundred and fifty million dollars. Wow, And that just immediately
took the top power bat off the board. It solidified
the core of that Phillies lineup. I mean, Drum's almost
thirty three, but he wasn't just rewarded for his power numbers.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
And the power numbers are huge, right, averaging forty home
runs the last two seasons.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
They are, but it's also about his presence in that clubhouse.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Well, for the Phillies, they're in a very specific window,
aren't they. They've won the NL East two years running,
but then they suffer these back to back losses in
the NLDS.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
First of the Mets than the Dodgers.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Yeah, so keeping Schwarber keeping that leadership, I mean, manager
Thompson called him a huge part of our ball club.
It felt like a non negotiable for them, no matter
his age or his defensive limitations.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
It's a huge commitment of winning right now. But the
really strategic takeaway from that Schwarber deal. It connects directly
to the other big slugger still out there, Peter Alonzo
Pete Alonso Shorever's thirty million dollars AAV just set the
floor for what a premier slugger can ask for. It
created a very clear benchmark for Alonzo's agents to aim for.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
And just to close the loop on Diaz leaving the Mets,
they do get a compensatory draft pick, right.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
They do after the fourth round, which is, you know,
a nice little consolation.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Prize, but it's not a closer, no, And now.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
They have this gigantic hole that Diaz left, and they
had to show the fans, show the clubhouse that they
weren't just going to take the pick and call it
a day.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Okay, here's where it gets really interesting. How did the
Mets president David Sterns pivot so fast after losing his
star closer to a division well not a division rival,
but an NL rival. And what does that replacement deal
tell us about their stomach for risk.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Stern's moved so quickly, I mean exception fast. He locked
up Devin Williams to a three year, fifty one million
dollar contract, and by getting Williams before Diaz officially signed
with LA Stearns was able to kind of soften the
pr blow. He made sure they still landed an elite arm,
even if it's one with some recent volatility.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So they weren't going to get into a bidding war
for Diaz once they had Williams lined up exactly.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Stearns later concerned that the Williams deal impacted their pursuit.
It suggested that they weren't willing to go higher on
the aav or at another year once they had a
fallback of that caliber.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But that Williams contract, that's a high stake scandal. His
twenty twenty five season was just it was a statistical
mess compared to his career, a total anomaly.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Yeah, he had a four point seventy nine era blew
four saves. He really struggled under that New York spotlight
with the Yankees. You know, he lost the closer job twice.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
Yeah, I remember those three appearances in April where he
just got shelled.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
And that volatility is the big question mark hanging over
that fifty one million dollar guarantee. But yeah, if you're
the Mets, you have to look deeper than just the era. Okay,
this contract is a huge bet on his underlying metrics.
In twenty twenty five, his feeling independent pitching was way
better than his era. It was around three point two.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
So that suggests some bad luck, bad defense behind.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Him, a lot of it, and more importantly, his expected era,
his XRA was closer to two point eight zero, which
is still elite. The Mets analytics department, they clearly see
a pitcher whose I mean, his change up wiff rate
was still incredibly high, was still dominant. The results were
just tainted by circumstances.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
So they're basically buying the pre twenty twenty five Williams,
but at a twenty twenty five discount, and they're banking
on everything just regressing back to the mean.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
That and they're banking on the stadium change. City Field
is statistically the most pitcher friendly park he's ever called.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Home, especially compared to Yankee Stadium.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Oh yeah, and he finished the season strong too, nine
straight scoreless appearances plus four more in the playoffs. So
if the Mets are right about the park and the
bounce back, Steel looks like a heist. But if they're wrong,
given the recent history, the pressure on him in Queen's
is going to be immediate and intense.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Okay, let's pivot back to the hitters. With Schwarber signed,
Pete Alonso is now, without a doubt, the top power
bat level. He's reportedly looking for a five year deal
in that one fifty range, you know, just like Schwarber,
and his numbers back it up, averaging thirty nine homers
one hundred and fifteen RBIs since twenty twenty two. So
why is there a stall in the talks?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
It really comes down to two things, age and defense
and the Mets' new philosophy under President Stearn's Okay, so
Schwarber is almost thirty three, but Alonzo's getting close to
thirty one. The Mets are reportedly really reluctant to offer
more than three years. They want that long term payroll.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Flexibility, and they want to improve their team.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Defense, which has been weak. And Alonso, for all his
production with the bat, is statistically a below average first basement.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
So you have the face of the franchise on one
side and a new, real stringent organizational philosophy on the other.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Exactly, and that hesitation from the Mets is a massive
opportunity for some American League teams, right Alonzo was scheduled
to meet with both the Boston Red Sox and the
Baltimore Orioles in Orlando. That signals really high interest for
both of them.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Boston under Craig Breslo, they are desperate for a right
handed slugger to put in the middle of that order.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Desperate to pair with Tristan Gussas. They have the money
and they have the immediate need to give Alonzo that
five year deal. The Mets are balking app and what.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
About the Orioles. They're built around this young, controllable core,
but they just they need that impact, righty bat to
get them over the top in the Al East.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
You absolutely do adding a bat like Alonso. I mean,
thirty eight homers, one hundred and twenty six RBIs and
in NL leading forty one doubles last year. That could
be the final piece that makes them the consensus World
Series favorites.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
So for the Mets, the risk here is huge, enormous.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
If they won't go past three years, they don't just
lose their most popular play, they could lose him to
a major AL contender, and that might force owner Steve
Cohen to step in at the last minute. That whole
storyline is still hanging over the end of the meetings.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Let's move away from the big names for a minute.
We saw some really critical deals for bullpen depth and
some international reclamation projects. Let's start with Detroit resigning their
closer Kyle Finnegan.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Yeah, that was a smart, solid move for the Tigers.
They got Finigan at the deadline last year and he
just instantly stabilized their late innings. Posted a one point
five over sixteen games.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Super impressive.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
So they gave him a very reasonable two year deal
nineteen million can get up to twenty million with incentives.
And this is on the heels of his twenty twenty
four All Star season with the Nationals, where he had
thirty eight saves.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
So the natural question is how aj Hinch is going
to use him. Is Finnegan the guy in the ninth
or did they go with a committee since Will vest
did a pretty good job closing for most of twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Given Finnegan's experience and that new contract, I think he
comes in as the primary ninth inning guy. But Hinch
loves flexibility. Think it's a powerful riety. He should love
the deep fence as a Kamerica Park and Having that
depth lets them protect will Vest's workload and deploy their
best guys based on matchups, not just rigid roles.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Speaking of other high leverage arms, Pete Fairbanks, the Rays
declined his eleven million dollar option. He's drawing a lot
of interest. I'm hearing the Marlins and the Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Fairbanks is a really interesting case. Pitch to a two
point eighty three ERA over sixty one appearances last season,
which is great. Yeah, but his injury history, specifically these
persistent shoulder issues, that's what led the Rays to say
no to the option. He's probably going to land a
two or three year deal, maybe in the eight to
ten million AAV range.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
So teams are just betting that the elite stuff is
worth the risk.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
They're betting that the elite velocity and that nasty splitter
are worth the gamble, especially for a late inning role.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Now we also have the ultimate flex player, Brad Keller,
getting a lot of buzz. The Cubs used him in
the bullpen, but he's getting looks as a starter too.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, Keller is going to command a pre significant contract
because of that flexibility. One projection I saw put him
at a two year, twenty three million dollar deal. The
Cubs won him back as a multi inning reliever, but
the Tigers are reportedly interested in putting him back in
the rotation, which is a role he has more experience
in but less recent success.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
And the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
The Yankees, who are always worried about injury depth, they
see him as the perfect swingman, a reliever who can
step into the rotation if Cole or Rodin has a setback.
So the team that signs him is buying versatility. But
only one of his roles, reliever, was really effective last year.
That's what makes the negotiation tricky.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
And we can't ignore the global market, can we. It
just continues to be a gold mine for teams that
are willing to gamble on players reinventing themselves overseas.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
It really is.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
We've got Cody Ponce coming back to the Blue Jays
and Anthony Kaye joining the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Ponts's deal is a big one, three years, thirty million.
This is for a pitcher who really strugg in the
majors before, but he came back completely remade after his
time in the KBO.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
He won the MVP over there, right, KBOMVP.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
And their Cy Young equivalent in twenty twenty five went
seventeen to one with a stunning one point eight to
nine ERA.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So what changed. It can't just be the competition level.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
It's mostly velocity and confidence. He came back hitting the
upper nineties of this fastball. That's a huge jump from
his ninety three mile prol average a few years ago.
And while yeah, the KBO is often compared to double
A talent wise, the key for MLB teams is that
Ponts showed durability, he showed work ethic, and he evolved.
His stuff is a high upside gamble, a lot like
(12:38):
when the Dbacks brought back Merril Kelly from the KBO,
which worked out great.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
And Anthony k signed a two year deal with the
White Sox after two good years in Japan.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
K story is even more instructive for pitchers who need
to adapt. He was an NPB with the Yokohama DNA
based Stars, posted a two point five to three ERA
over forty eight starts.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
And the hitting approach in Japan is very.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Different, completely different. It's all about running up pitch counts,
fouling off everything. It forced him to develop a crucial
new pitch, a two seam fastball. Ah, that pitch, let
him get soft contact and fight back against that relentless
plate discipline. So the White Sox are buying a picture
who has proven he can evolve his repertoire against a
high level, different kind of offensive approach. It's not just
(13:22):
a physical change, it's a strategic and mechanical upgrade.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
All right, Let's shift gears completely now to the trade market.
You mentioned earlier that this year feels especially ripe for trades,
particularly for starting pitching. Why is the trade volume so
high right now?
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Oh, we're seeing a bunch of factors all come together. First,
you've got multiple teams that are in their final year
of control with a star pitcher like Trek scooball right. Second,
the free agent market for elite starting pitching was actually
pretty weak this year. Yeah, so teams who missed out
the Dodgers, the Red Sox, maybe the Orioles, they're forced
to get their guys via trade. Okay. And third, you
(13:58):
have several mid market teams like the Marlins and the
d Backs who have realized their organizational timelines just don't
match up with their current star players, so that forces
them to pivot, forces them to pivot hard and try
to get the prospects and control talent they need for
a real rebuild.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
The biggest position player getting all the buzz is Katel
Marte from the Diamondbacks. He finished third in the nl
MVP voting in twenty twenty four. He's been incredibly productive,
So why would the d Backs even think about moving
a star on an affordable contract.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
It's a desperate move to try and stabilize their rotation
long term. The Diamondbacks are looking at a major pitching crisis.
Zach Gallon and Meryl Kelly are probably gone a free
agency in the next year or two, and Cortin Burns
is recovering from Tommy John He's probably going to miss
most of twenty twenty six. Wow. So GM Mike Kaysen
knows that unless he can get high end, major league
(14:52):
ready starting pitching, the d Backs are going to fall
out of contention fast. Marte is their most valuable trade.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Ship, and I hear the asking price is just astronomical.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
It is. They're asking for a top tier starting pitcher
with multiple years of control, plus significant major league ready
position player talent. Hazen is negotiating from weakness. He's waiting
for a franchise altering offer, and.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
There's a ticking clock on this whole thing that makes
the winter meetings the perfect time to make a deal.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
This is absolutely crucial context. Marte's ten and five rights
kick in this April.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Okay, so remind everyone what ten and five rights are.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Ten years of service time in the majors, with five
of those years with his current team. It gives the
player the right to veto any trade. Marte hits that
mark in April. If the d Backs wait until the
summer deadline, Marte has a veto that severely limits who
they can trade him to, and it just tanks their leverage.
They have to move him now to get the best return.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
So which teams are lining up for him?
Speaker 2 (15:51):
It's a strong list. The Seattle Mariners, the Pirates, the Tigers,
the Red Sox, and the Blue Jayson. ESPN's Jeff passed
and even predicted that if the Mariners get Martey, they
instantly become the American League favorites for twenty twal six.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Wow, that's a big statement.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
It is, but Marte offers fifteen point three war over
his last three seasons. He can play multiple positions and
he's on a cost controlled deal. The risk is his
injury history and some anonymous reports last year about clubhouse friction.
That's why some teams are hesitant to meet Hayesan's sky
high price.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Okay, moving down to the pitching paradox in Miami, the
Marlins have controllable starting pitching, but they desperately need offense,
especially a first baseman who's the most likely arm to
be moved.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Edward Cabrera is the consensus favorite. He's only twenty seven,
he has three more years of team control, and he
posted a solid three point five to three ERA in
twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Five, So why am well?
Speaker 2 (16:43):
The strategic reason is that he's out of options. The
Marlins can't send him down to the miners without putt
him on waivers, which basically forces their hand.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
And he has electric stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Electric stuff sinker in the upper nineties, a ninety six
mile pour changeup and elite breaking balls just nasty.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
But his biggest issue has always been durability, hasn't it Historically?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yes, he made a career high twenty six starts in
twenty twenty five, but he did deal with some elbow
discomfort and a sprain that raised some Tommy John concerns
mid season.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
So they're shopping him now while his value.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Is high, exactly while the velocity is up and the
injury concern is manageable. The Baltimore Orioles are reportedly the
most advanced in trade talks. Cabrero would be a top
of the rotation arm that fits their contention window perfectly.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
And the former Cy Young winner Sandialcina is he really
off the table.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
He's a long shot for a trade even with a
higher profile. He's thirty, He's coming off Tommy John, which
creates risk, and while his overall ERA last year was
high at five point three six, he was spectacular at
the end of the season, a two point six to
eight RA in his last eight starts. And crucially, he
is a huge clubhouse leader, the face of the franchise.
(17:54):
The Marlins front office still thinks they can contend in
twenty twenty six, and trading Alcintara with send a terrible
message to the fans and the players that they're giving up.
He also has fewer years of control than Carbrera and
has owed more money, so Cabrera is just the cleaner trade.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Let's talk about the Detroit Tigers. And their dilemma with
the two time Alsacia Young Winner Turk Scuball. He's entering
his final year of team control. What's the pressure dynamic
like in that front office?
Speaker 2 (18:20):
The pressure is immense on President Scott Harris and GM
Jeff Greenberg. They've been criticized for being way too cautious
in recent offseason.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, they haven't made any big Bowl moves.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
None, and the team finished twenty twenty five and basically
the same spot as the year before. There's a feeling
that this version of the Tigers has kind of.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Peaked and Scooball is going to command a massive extension,
a huge.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
One, maybe in the two hundred million dollar range. So
the front office is listening to offers. Harrison Greenberg absolutely
need a bounce back season in twenty twenty six. They
need to make a move that either locks Goooble up
long term or brings back a return that just fundamentally
speeds up their rebuild.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
It's a playing It isn't an option.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Letting him walk for a draft pick next year is
not an option for their job security.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
And adding another layer of complexity to this already tight market.
The Minnesota Twins just did a major strategic one to eighty.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Well, they slammed the brakes on the expected selloff. Hard
Twins president Derek Falvey came out and explicitly confirmed the
deam was looking to add to the roster for twenty
twenty six. He emphatically said they will not trade top
guys like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, or Byron Buxton.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
That's a huge pivot because last year they were in
full cell mode'll sell off.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
They dealt five of their top relievers for prospects.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
So what changed their minds from selling to buying.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
I think it's two things. First, the quality of the
return they got last year was really good. They got
high quality, major league ready talent and good prospects, which
suggested the rebuilt timeline was short okay. And second, the
financial flexibility they got when the pool Ad family took
the team off the market after dealing with some debt.
That frees up some payroll space. They're projecting a payer
(20:00):
around ninety six million for twenty twenty six. They're committed
to competing in that weak al central and.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
The implication for the rest of the league is huge.
It is the trade market for starting pitchers in center
fielders just got a lot tighter it.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
Did, especially for clothes like the Mets and Astros who
were linked to Buxton. Now the Twins are buyers, they
need bullpen help to replace the guys they traded, and
they need one or two impact bats with power. So
this just intensifies the pressure on teams with available pitchers
like Freddie Peralta or Mackenzie Gore because the list of
targets just shrank.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Speaking of philosophical shifts, let's talk about the Saint Louis Cardinals.
They are in full on rebuild mode under their new
GM chain Bloom. What's the temperature in Saint Louis? Is
it a fire sale?
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Bloom is operating with what he calls urgency, which is
a word you almost never hear during a rebuild. He's
pushing his team to get rid of the idea of slow,
patient moves. The Cardinals are listening to offers for almost
every star who doesn't fit a long term rebuild. Brendan Donovan, Nolan, Aernado, Wilson, Contreras,
Alec Burlson, Jojo Romero. The goal is maximum future value.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
Let's zoom in on Brendan Donovan. The Yankees buzz is
just overwhelming. Why are the Yankees so focused on landing
the twenty twenty five All Star.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
Donovan is a perfect fit for what the Yankees have
needed for years. He gives them elite defensive versatility all
over the infield and outfield, which is huge in the
Al East. And more importantly, he's a left handed bat
with a high on base ability, something that line up
desperately lacked last year.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
And the two sides match up well for.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
A trade they do. The word out of Orlando is
that the Cardinals knee pitching prospects and the Yankees have
a bunch of cost controlled arms they can offer to
Kickstar Blooms rebuild guys like Will Warren, Lewis Gill Clark Schmidt.
The feeling in the industry is that a Donovan deal
is going to get done very very soon.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
And Nolan Aernaudo, the ten time Gold Glover in Icon,
is he really on the block?
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Bloom confirmed they won't just release him, but he's been
very opened that the Star has expressed interest in finding
a different fit, and apparently the list of teams he'd
degree to join has gotten longer interesting and one of
the teams showing more interest is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Especially
if Aeronado's old teammate Paul Goldschmid goes back to Arizona
as a free agent. The Cardinals are basically preparing for
(22:19):
an avalanche of moves. It just depends on which star
brings back the best haul.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
First, before we move to the draft, let's quickly touch
on a completed trade and some lingering outfield rumors. The
Angels got infielder Von Grissom from the Red Sox. Seems
like a low key move, but the implications are interesting.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Yeah, it was a prospect swap that really signals the
Red Sox are giving up on a guy they just acquired.
The angel sent a minor league outfielder Isaiah Jackson, their
number twenty five prospect, to Boston for Grissom, and Grissom
for Boston was part of that Chris Sale trade return.
But he just struggled badly. He spent all of twenty
twenty five in Triple A, batted just point one to
nine zero in the majors in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
Four, so CBO Craig Breslow basically said he didn't have
a pass to the big leagues in Boston, pretty much,
So why are the Angels and Perrimanas betting on him?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
The Angels clearly think they're getting a big league player
with upside who just needs to change the scenery. They're
betting on the raw talent, especially since he was a
good hitter in the miners. Minesian praised his staff for
finding a guy they think can contribute. It's a classic.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
Bilo move for them, and the Dodgers' outfield defense still
an issue, is top of mind. They shot down rumors
about trade and Tascar Hernandez.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Yeah, Jim Gummes is very firm, he said, Trading Hernandez
is not something we anticipate at all. Okay, but they
desperately need a defensive upgrade, specifically a true center fielder.
The goal is to get a center fielder which lets
them move Andy Page's and his plus arm to right field,
and that.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
Would shift Hernandez to left exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
And Hernandez's defense is a bit shoddy, so that one
move instantly fortifies their entire outfield defense and saves them
a ton of runs.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
And we have to mention Scott Boras, who used his
time to cryptic, described the market for Cody Bellinger.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Boras is the master of the dramatic quote, isn't he?
He name dropped like eight teams in one sentence.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Now, I see if I can remember it. Great players
see red if they have a big bat yanked out
of their lineup. I haven't met a team that dodges
a five tool player.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
To fill the center field need. Is a giant step
toward the playoffs. I mean, it's performance art.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
It really is outfielders that fly with power. They're rare birds.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
It's incredible, but it highlights the robust market for Bellinger.
His camp and Kyle Tucker's camp are still kind of intertwined.
Bellinger is projected to land a big contract, maybe six years,
one sixty.
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Five, and he's a fit for so many teams because
of his versatility.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
The Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets. He can play first base,
which is crucial for teams still in on Alonzo, and
he offers gold glove defense in center field, where the
market is incredibly thin now that Grisham and Mullins are signed, and.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
His availability sets the market for the other center fielders
like Harrison Bader.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
H getting interest from the Giants, Phillies, and Royals. He
had a nice bounce back season in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
He's the defensive specialists totally.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
Yeah, he slashed point two seven, seven point three four
to seven point four to four nine with seventeen homers,
But his value is all about that superb defense. He's
expected to get a simpler, two year, twenty six million
dollars deal for a team like the Giants in that
huge park, A defender like him is extremely valuable.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Let's transition from the here and now to long term planning.
Let's talk about the draft lottery and the upcoming Rule
five draft.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, the draft lottery results are they're just existential for
teams that are doing a true rebuild for the fourth time,
the pingpong balls decided the top six picks, and the
implications for these organizations are just massive.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
The Chicago White Sox were the biggest winners.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Right they were, with the best odds at twenty seven
point seven three percent. They got the number one overall pick,
a huge moment for GM Chris Getz, who is overseeing
a pretty painful rebuild.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
They even brought in Harold Baines to rep them.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
Their last number one pick from nineteen seventy seven. Get
stressed that getting the top amateur talent is the single
most important thing for their organization right now. It's a
huge psychological and talent boost.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
The Rays landed at number two, Twins at number three,
But the biggest surprise jump came from the nl.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
West, the San Francisco Giants. They secured the number four pick,
leaping all the way from their projected fifteenth spot after
finishing eighty one eighty one.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
That's a massive win for them, a.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Huge organizational win. That one jump drastically increases the ceiling
of the talent they can get. And to round out
the top six, you have the Pirates at five and
the Royals at six.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
And some teams were ineligible to pick that high right.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
The Rockies, Angels, and Nationals couldn't pick higher than ten
to twelve because of repeating lottery appearances.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
So looking ahead to twenty twenty six, who are the
top targets for these teams?
Speaker 2 (26:50):
The early mock drafts are all about college shortstops. Roguchilowski
from UCLA is the consensus projected number one pick for
the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I've heard him called the best all around college shortstop
since Tulo.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Since Troy Tulabiski in two thousand and five. Yeah, he
hit point three to five to three with twenty three
homers and seventy four RBIs in sixty six games last season.
That is elite offense from a premium defensive spot.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
And who else are the top teams looking at?
Speaker 2 (27:17):
The Rays at number two will probably target Grady Emberson,
the top prep shortstop. He's a high ceiling defensive wizard.
The Twins at three might look at Justin Lebron, a
shortstop from Alabama with five tool potential, and the Giants
with their lucky number four pick, are linked to Drew Burris,
an outfielder from Georgia Tech, a slugger with solid tools
and center.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Now let's talk about the Rule five Draft, which happens
this week. This is always confusing for people. Can you
just give us a clear, concise breakdown of the rules
in why it matter?
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Sure? The Rule five draft basically exists to stop teams
from hoarding MLB caliber talent in the miners forever. The
core of it is protection deadlines. Players signed at eighteen
or younger have to be protected on the forty man
roster within five seasons. Those signed at nineteen or older,
it's four seasons. If a player is left unprotected, another
(28:06):
team can draft them.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
And what's the cost, and what's the big catch that
makes it such a high risk move.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
The selecting team pays one hundred thousand dollars. But here's
the catch. That player has to stay on your twenty
six man active roster for the entire next season, a
whole year, the entire year. If they don't, if you
try to send them down, you have to offer them
back to their original team for fifty thousand year. That
mandatory roster spot is White teams are so careful about
(28:33):
who they pick.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
We know ROBERTA. Clemente is the most famous success story, and.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
More recently Shane Smith. He went from being overlooked by
the Brewers to making the All Star team with the
White Sox after they picked him. A rare but great
success story.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
And the players who get picked usually fit a certain.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Type right very specific archetypes. First, pitchers you can convert
to relievers. Guys wear their best stuff, high velocity, a
nasty secondary pitch can play up in short bursts like
Felix around Connor. Nolan and Brock Salvage fit that mold.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
And the second archetype speed.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
And defense outfielders, guys you can use as a fourth
or fifth outfielder and a pinch runner. Players like Alan
Castro and Gavin Cross have elite speed and defensive skills,
but maybe not the hit tool yet. They're appealing because
you can kind of hide them on the bench and
still fulfill that roster spot requirement.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Sticking with player development, let's look at the Cleveland Guardians.
They had the number one pick two years ago. How
is that twenty twenty four drash class looking to impact
the twenty twenty six team, especially since the Guardians are
expected to keep their payroll tight well, the.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Guardian's entire strategy has built on their ability to grow
talent cheaply, and all eyes are on Travis Pizana, that
number one overall pick.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
He flew through the miners in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Five, rocketed through he reached double A and triple A,
posted a really solid one thirty seven WRC plus find.
The consensus is he's the most likely player from that
class to reach the majors in twenty twenty six, maybe
even break camp.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
With the team, But he he has a couple of
hurdles to clear before he can be a real impact.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Player he does. First, he's been dealing with an oblique
injury that he really needs to get past this offseason.
And second, his strikeout rate it was a high twenty
four point three percent in the upper miners. That needs
to come down for him to unlock his full power.
If he could do that, he could be an immediate force.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
At second base and beyond Bizana, who else can provide
that cheap help they need?
Speaker 2 (30:23):
The Guardians pitching pipeline is always reliable. Raising Er Slefinger,
Sean Mattson, and Logan maguire all showed promise and have
the stuff to be bullpen arms next year. That's cost
effective relief depth, which is essential for a team on
a budget. And their catcher Jacob Cozart, a second round pick,
he's on track to provide death later in the twenty
twenty sixth season.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
So overall was a good class.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
A great class. About two thirds of that twenty twenty
four draft class is tracking to have a viable shot
at making a big leag Groster. Eventually, that's a fantastic
return and it's the lifeblood of that organization. Moving away
from transactions now, the meetings always bring some crucial off
field news and organizational changes. Let's talk about the Hall
of Fame announcements. We had one electee and the effective
(31:06):
permanent exclusion of two controversial stars. Jeff Kent was elected
to the Hall of Fame, and that was a huge
emotional story, especially for fans who felt his production was
always overlooked. Seven time All Star set the career home
run record for a second basement his election as Hall
share Jane Forbes Clark noted, now opens up spots on
(31:27):
the Contemporary Era Committee ballot for other deserving guys.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
But that anecdote about Kent's election, that's one of those
moments that reminds you why we love the sport.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
It's an incredibly powerful story. A friend of Kent's, Paul Sloane,
a huge Giants fan, met him at spring training in
nineteen ninety nine, and in this moment of just pure
fan enthusiasm, Sloane yelled at him, Jeff Kent, you're going
to the Hall of Fame, and Kent gave him a
little wave back and sloan. Sloane tragically died on nine
to eleven. His friend said the Kent's election finally fulfilled
(31:55):
that unlikely prophetic moment from years ago. It's just a
wonderful reminder that these achievements are tied to fans and memories.
Speaker 1 (32:03):
On the complete opposite end of that spectrum, Barry Bonds
and Roger Clemens were denied entry again. They received fewer
than five votes each from the committee. This pretty much
shuts the door on their Hall of Fame hopes, doesn't it.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
It really does. Clark stated that the committee members view
the steroids era similarly to how the BBWAA writers did,
which explains the low vote count and the denial is
huge because they are now barred from that committee's ballot
for the next three year.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
Cycle, so if they fail again in twenty thirty one, if.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
They fail again, they could be permanently barred from future
ballots unless the rules themselves change. This effectively closes the
door on two of the most statistically dominant players ever,
confirming that the shadow of that era continues to dictate
who gets into Cooperstown.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Institutional change was also happening in Colorado, a team that
is notorious for its struggles to develop pitching. They announced
a major overhaul of their pitching staff, prioritizing analytics.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
This is a signal from the Rockies front office that
they are finally committed to modernizing. They hired a Lawnikman
as their new major league pitching coach. rightI Likeman is
highly praised for his innovative approach. He even experimented with
calling pitches from the dugout when he was with the Marlins,
which shows a willingness to challenge old school thinking.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
And the person they hired as their director of pitching
used to work at drive Line Baseball. That seems like
a pretty clear sign of where they're headed.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
Bringing in Matt Daniels, a former drive Line employee, into
a leadership role, is a game changer for the Rockies.
Drive Line is the epicenter of data driven player development.
This shift, along with hiring Gabe Reebis and Matt Bushman,
is a clear effort to break the old mold and
finally find some success in that brutal pitching environment at
Coors Field.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
Let's touch quickly on the upcoming twenty twenty six World
Baseball Classic. Team USA is confirming some serious star power
they are.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Team USA just announced four new position players Kyle Schwarber,
Gunner Henderson, Bryce Terrang and Will.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
Smith, and they joined captain Aaron Judge.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
And Corbin Carroll, Piekrow, Armstrong and Cal Rawley. That is
an incredibly powerful versible group for manager Mark DeRosa to
work with.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
And what's the latest on Mike Traut's participation.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Trout is still in the mix, but Deroza has a
tough decision about carrying a full time DH on a short,
high leverage roster. Trout has to weigh the tournament against
preparing for his sixteenth season with the Angels. Deroza also
confirmed that Trek Skubal is high on their wish list
for the pitching staff, which just shows they're trying to
get the absolute best players.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
We also had some interesting post mortems from managers looking
back at last season. Blue Jays manager John Schneider was
really vocal defending Isaiah Kiner Fileffa for getting thrown out
at the plate in Game seven of the World Series.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Yeah, this was a fascinating tactical defense from Schneider. He
said he watched the video a ton and insisted Kenner
Fileifa shouldn't be blamed for it. The runner took an
unusually short lead off third base, only about seven point
eight feet, and that was on the direction of the
third base coach why it was a tactical decision to
avoid a potential backpick play by Dodgers catcher Will Smith,
(35:11):
who loves to try that against lefties. Schneider was clear
they were prioritizing avoiding a double play or a pickoff,
not maximizing speed on the run. The manager defended the
strategy even though the result was bad.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
And finally, let's look at the business side of things,
specifically the new MLB METEA rights deal with ESPN for
the twenty twenty sixth season. The keyword seems to be flexibility.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
It is ESPN's new package has thirty exclusive national games,
but the structure is the key detail. They are no
longer locked into a specific weekly window like Sunday.
Speaker 1 (35:45):
Night Baseball, so that lets them follow the best storylines exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
They can capture key matchups throughout the week to maximize
fan interest. That said, the majority of the games will
still be on Wednesdays.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
What are some of the key dates we should circle
on our calendars.
Speaker 2 (35:58):
We've got a few big ones. The first exclusive regular
season game is Mets versus Dodgers on Wednesday, April fifteenth,
which is Jackie Robinson Day. We also get Yankees versus
Royals on Memorial Day, May twenty fifth. The second half
opener is Mets versus Phillies exclusively on ESPN, and the
Little League Classic with the Braves and Brewers will air
(36:19):
on Sunday, August twenty third.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
And the most exciting part for fans who just want
all the content in one.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Spot the integration of MLBtv into the ESPN app and ESPNVP.
Ashley O'Connor said, this move is all about bringing coverage
all in one place. It should make out of market
games much more accessible and will have some unique features
on the ESPN platform. It just simplifies the whole viewing experience.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
So what does this all mean for you the fan
as we come out of the winter meetings and head
toward the new year.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
It means the league is just moving at an unprecedented speed.
The market for elite talent is set. Closers cost twenty
three million a year and premier sluggers cost thirty million
a year. The biggest free agents, Torber and Diaz, are signed,
but the trademark, especially for starting pitching and guys like
Ketel Marte, is now dominating everything, and massive deals are
(37:06):
still pending, particularly with the Cardinals speeding up their rebuild,
and of course the White Sox got a huge future
boost by winning that number one pick.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
The stage is definitely set for a frantic winter.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
It is, and if you look at the most dramatic
and maybe the most conflicted pivot of the whole week,
it's what's happening in Saint Louis. Gmjan Bloom is trying
to rebuild with extreme urgency, but at the same time,
manager Oliver Marmle, who doesn't have a contract past twenty
twenty six, is supposed to uphold the Cardinal Way, which
is all about competitive excellence and discipline. So, considering the
(37:39):
huge multi season challenge of this aggressive rebuild and the
resistance that always comes with abandoning the Cardinal Way, how
much patience should Marmle really expect from the organization as
they try to do this massive project without just conceding
the next few seasons. That tension between Bloom's urgent strategy
and the organization's traditions, that is the core conflict that's
(38:01):
going to define Saint Louis for the next two years.
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