December 5, 2025 • 39 mins
This episode delivers a comprehensive tour of the Major League Baseball offseason as teams gear up for the pivotal 2025 Winter Meetings. Listeners are first brought up to speed on breaking news, including a headline-grabbing multi-player trade that sends pitcher Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox. The show unpacks how this move reshapes both clubs’ depth charts and sparks a chain reaction of roster shuffles, from waiver claims to fringe 40-man decisions. From there, the conversation widens to the broader free agent and trade markets, spotlighting the buzz surrounding top-tier position players like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, and Cody Bellinger. The episode breaks down which clubs are most aggressively in the mix, how front offices are weighing power vs. defense, and what these negotiations reveal about shifting team philosophies. Starting pitching remains at the center of winter strategy, and the show digs into rumors tied to frontline arms such as Zac Gallen and Tarik Skubal. Alongside the big names, listeners get updates on prospect rankings, Rule 5 Draft intrigue, and how younger talent could influence big-league plans sooner than expected. The episode also zooms in on the long-term outlook for key franchises, including the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Through detailed winter previews and payroll breakdowns, it explores each club’s organizational needs, budget constraints, and possible paths to contention. Whether you’re tracking every rumor or just checking in on the big picture, this episode offers a clear, structured guide to the chaos and opportunity of the MLB offseason.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the epicenter of the hot stove. If you
thought this particular off season was going to start slow,
well you have been thoroughly disabused of that notion in
the last few days. Oh. Absolutely, we are now officially
elbow deep in the deals, the rumors, and the transactions
that will absolutely shape the competitive landscape for the twenty
twenty six baseball season.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It's true the pace has I mean, it's intensified dramatically,
mainly because we're just barreling right toward the Winter meetings exactly.
We've seen some massive, massive contracts handed out, some fully justified, others,
you know, maybe less so, a genuine blockbuster trade, and
the market for the biggest names is just white hot
right now.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Okay, let's unpack this. We have to start with the
team that seems to be operating with an unlimited budget
and a clear singular mandate to win a World Series,
and that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
It has to be them.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
They wasted absolutely no time in setting the tone for
a high cost off season by immediately securing one of
the winter's top pitching prizes.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, the Blue Jays aggression has been the singular headline
so far. Yeah, we saw the confirmed report of the
I mean absolutely massive seven year, two hundred and ten
million dollar contract for Picture Dylan Cease. Wow, and Cease
was without question the top high volume domestic arm on
the market. That was a huge defining move right out
of the gate, clearly signaling they want to build on
(01:22):
winning the al Pennant last season. They are not satisfied
with just making it. They want the title.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
And it wasn't just the big splash either. Almost at
the same time, they showed a really keen strategic eye
by making another significant investment in the rotation, but this
time looking across the.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Pacific, the Cody Ponts deal.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
They signed the former KBO MVP Cody Ponts to a
three year, thirty million dollar deal. That's what two hundred
and forty million dollars deployed into just two starting pitchers
before December even started. That level of spending is astounding.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
It speaks to a very specific, you know, a two
pronged strategy. First, get frontline stability at almost any cost.
And second, and this is critical to think, what they
see is high upside gambles on pitchers returning from Asia
hoping to replicate some of those recent successes we've seen.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Right the Merril Kelly model exactly.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And you have to remember this isn't just padding the
back of the roster. These are multi million dollar contracts
designed to make them World Series contenders, maybe even the
outright favorites.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And speaking of high impact moves, we also had a
major position player trade that quite literally swapped coasts and
shook up the balance of power. We're talking, of course,
about Marcus Semion going to the Mets and Brandon Neimo
heading over to the Texas Rangers.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That trade signals that several big market teams are just
aggressively reshaping their identity, even if it means, you know,
sacrificing talent they just paid a lot of money for.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
It's fascinating it is.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
The Rangers, who rely on defense, are certainly remaking their
offense and taking a hit on d while the Mets
are clearly trying to fix their own defensive shortcomings, even
if it meant taking on a complicated contract profile with
an older player.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
The strategic trade offs here are just fascinating to break down.
So that's our focus today. We are going to cut
through all the rumor mills and the chatter to focus
on the key transactions, the biggest remaining free agent markets,
and most importantly, the strategic decisions teams are making right now.
We're looking not just at twenty twenty six, but at
the long term competitive window these decisions open or close.
(03:23):
We've got a lot of ground to cover.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Let's pivot now to the biggest bats still hanging out
there in the free agency pool, the undisputed number one
hitter on the market, Kyle Tucker. Yeah, he is the
definition of consistent elite performance, a corner outfielder who offers speed, power,
and reliable contact that really few others can match.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Absolutely, we're talking about a true five tool player who
just rarely goes through prolonged slumps. He's got a career
point eight sixty five ops, which is outstanding, and he's
consistently hit twenty plus homers and reached double figures and
steals in each of the past five full seasons.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
That combination is just so rare.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
It is that power, that speed, and that reliability is
incredibly ware and it's precisely why he commands the full
attention of every major contender who needs that middle of
the order presence and based on all the reports, the
Toronto Blue Jays, fresh off their massive pitching spending spree,
are definitely positioning themselves as the front runners here.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh. Absolutely, There's a.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Confirmed report that Tucker actually visited the Blue Jays player
development facility down in Dindon, Florida. That suggests genuine mutual
interest and I mean real aggressiveness on Toronto's part to
land him early.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
That visit immediately puts intense pressure on the rest of
the league. It says we are ready to spend and
we are ready to move quickly.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Right.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
But what's fascinating here is the immediate conflict we saw
between major Baseball insiders about his signing timeline. This is
where you really see the two competing philosophies and free
agency playout.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Okay, so let's talk about those. What was the argument
for Tucker moving fast?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
What one perspective this is from Buster Only at ESPN
suggested that because Tucker is so widely projected as a
potential forty million dollar plus aav player, it might actually
be smart for him to move quickly.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Get the deal done.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Exactly if he gets an aggressive early bid, say a
nine or ten year deal for four hundred million dollars
from a team like the Blue Jays or the Dodgers.
Moving quickly lets him lock in that record number and
avoid any risk of the market softening later. It capitalizes
on that initial rush of team enthusiasm.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
So hit the market fast, grab the big money before
other guys sign and budget start to shrink. But then
we had the complete opposite take.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Correct, We had Jeff Pass encountering that reporting that Tucker
is not close to done yet and suggesting that extreme
patience is actually required here, so wait it out. Yeah.
This implies that despite Toronto's early push and the facility visit,
his agent believes that by waiting they can generate this
intense competitive tension among all the interested clubs. The goal
(05:54):
isn't to just take the first four hundred million dollar offer,
but to ensure that multiple teams are forced to bid
four hundred million dollars or.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
More to maximize the final number.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Exactly maximize the total value, and potentially push the guaranteed
years even higher.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
That makes perfect sense. I mean, when you are the
undisputed top guy, you hold all the leverage, You take
your time to extract every last dollar you do, so
who else beyond Toronto are the big market teams rumored
to be seriously in the mix.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Well, the usual suspects are circling aggressively, the Dodgers, who
are always looking to upgrade around Muoki and show hey,
the Mets, even after the semi in trade, need more offense,
and of course the Yankees, who desperately need reliable, high
end production. All three are heavily rumored to have had
meetings or at least made preliminary offers.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And if a team misses out on Tucker, who's the
immediate pivot? Where does that money go?
Speaker 2 (06:47):
That's the key for strategic planning. The teams that miss
on Tucker, and there will be many, could pivot very
very quickly to the second best free agent outfielder out there,
who is Cody bellingcher right, Billinger offers similar left handed
power in a defense, though maybe with a little less
consistency and more volatility and his overall profile, Bellinger will
be the next major domino to fall once Tucker makes
(07:07):
his decision, which you know could still be weeks away.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
The Blue Jays are clearly pushing their chips all in
that massive contract for Seuss and now the pursuit of
Tucker shows they are well financially fearless. But let's dive
a little deeper into the pitching gambits, particularly that highly
intriguing Cody Punce deal.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
That seven year, two hundred and ten million dollar deal
for Dylancy's was undeniably a statement of intent. It established
them as a financial heavyweight. But I agree the more intriguing,
almost high risk, high reward move is the three year,
thirty million dollars signing of Cody.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Punts the KBO MVP.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Right, It's the kind of move they either looks absolutely
genius in three years or you know, just disastrous.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Let's focus on the risk because this is where the
story gets really compelling. When Punts was less than the
major is in twenty twenty one with the Pirates, he
was I mean, statistically just performing at a catastrophic level.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Catastrophic is the right word. He was statistically one of
the worst pitchers in baseball that year. If you looked
at pitchers with at least thirty five innings pitched, Pons
ranked four hundred and twenty six out of four hundred
and thirty six pitchers in a bunch of key categories.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Bottom of the barrel.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Era batting average allowed ops allowed. He was dead last
across the board in terms of suppressing offense. That's a
massive hole he has to dig out of.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
He then went over to the KBO, completely remade himself,
and comes back as the KBO MVP. The Blue Jays
are clearly banking on that success story model, right the
one established by other guys who returned from Korea, and.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
There are good historical comparisons. Look at Merrill Kelly, who
returned in twenty nineteen at age thirty and has since
averaged what three point three war per one hundred and
sixty two games.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
And Eric said more recently or Eric fed.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
He went to Korea in twenty three one MVP and
then came back to post a phenomenal five point six
war season in twenty twenty four, though he did slip
a bit in the second half of twenty five. The
model is proven, but it is far from guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
So if the model is proven but volatile, what gives
the Blue Jays confidence in Pont, specifically given that dreadful
MLB track record?
Speaker 2 (09:07):
The report suggests the belief is really tied to his
stuff and how it's progressed. He reportedly throws harder than
both Kelly and Fetti did when they came back. Oh interest,
that higher velocity, specifically his ability to generate a ninety
five plus mar of fastball, gives them confidence that he
can immediately be a successful mid rotation starter here, not
just a back end guy.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
But let me play skeptic for a moment. He was
statistically the worst pitcher in baseball just three years ago.
To simply adding a couple miles per hour playing against
a significantly lesser league in the KBO suddenly make him
a ten million dollars a year starter. That seems like
a massive leap of faith.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
It is a massive lead, which is why the financial
structure of the deal is so key. That's where the
analysis of this being a worthy gamble comes in. It's
all about the value proposition.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Break that down for us.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Okay, so, standard baseball analytics suggests that one win above
replacement or one war is typically that between eight and
ten million dollars on the open market. This contract pays
Ponts ten million dollars a year.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Right.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Therefore, if Ponce produces just one war per season over
those three years, the Blue Jays have essentially just broken
even they've earned back the money and he's been a
replacement level player.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
So he just needs to be averaged to pay his
own way exactly.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
But if he reaches two war per season, so six
total war over the life of the contract, the deal
immediately becomes a great deal for Toronto. They're saving money,
and if by some miracle he hits the levels of
a returning Kelly or Fed and produces, you know, three
war a year, it'll be hailed as one of the best,
most shrewd deals of the entire offseason.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
For ten million dollars a year, that upside makes the
risk worth it.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
That's the calculation they're making.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
This aggressive spending, both on the acs and the gamble ponts.
It naturally folds into the bigger narrative around their current core,
specifically star shortstop Bobashet.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Right there's been intense speculation that if Toronto's signed an
elite back like Kyle Tucker, it would necessarily rule out
resigning Beshett long term because of the massive payroll implications.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
You can't afford everyone, especially if you have to pay
four hundred million dollars for Tucker.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
That's the conventional wisdom, but insider John Hyman suggests that
signing Tucker would not necessarily preclude them from bringing Bshett back.
The implication is that ownership is willing to accept an
unprecedented payroll in pursuit of the title, viewing this as
their only shot to win multiple championships with this core.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
If they manage to pull that off, cease ponce Tucker,
and retain Bashett, they would be the overwhelming World Series
favorite heading into twenty twenty six. I mean, that's one
of the most powerful lineups in baseball, but it would
come with one of the highest payrolls in the history
of a game.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
And that kind of spending is why we're going to
have the labor discussions. We'll get to later, but for now,
the threat of Bishett leaving is definitely real. The reports
mentioned the Atlanta Braves are rumored to have significant interest
in his bat. Shortstop is still a priority for them,
and beshit Je provides elite offense even with those well
documented defensive question marks.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Moving from the mega contracts in Toronto, let's look at
the mega trade that reshuffled the middle infields and outfields
of two perennial contenders, the Rangers and the Mets. Marcus
Semeon heads to New York, Brandon Nimo heads to Texas.
This is a complex swap, so let's dive into the
perspective of the Mets first. What exactly do they gain
by bringing in a thirty five year old Seman.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Well, the Mets are making a clear defensive priority move.
They're getting a Gold Glove defender at second base, someone
who is just vastly superior defensively to Jeff McNeil.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Who they've been trying to move off the position.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Anyway, Exactly, it's a significant measurable upgrade in fielding metrics,
which was clearly a priority for them after their defensive
metrics really suffered in that twenty twenty five collapse.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
But I have to push back on the enthusiasm for Semon.
There's a major looming risk associated with him, specifically his
age and his offensive trend.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
You absolutely should Sam is thirty five, and while he
was an AL MVP runner up during the Rangers twenty
twenty three title run, his offensive numbers have definitely trended
south over the past two seasons. He's been just below
league average.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Which for a middle infielder is not great.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
For a middle infielder at that age. It's a precarious
baseline and the forecast isn't great. The expectation is that
the offense will only decline further. So the Mets are
paying a premium for his defense and his leadership.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
And what's the most head scratching part about this move
from the Mets long term perspective.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
It's the depth chart congestion. The Mets are already incredibly
deep in high quality, high upside infield prospects, guys like
Louis Angelacuna, Ronny Marisio, Jet Williams, all of whom have
considerably more upside than Semian at this stage of his career.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
So it blocks them.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
It seems to block those internal options in the short term,
potentially creating a bottleneck that delays their whole organizational reset.
They must believe Semian is a crucial two year stop
gap to stabilize the defense while those guys finish developing.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
So the argument has to come down to the financial strategy. Then,
how does Semon's contract help New York manage their massive payroll?
Speaker 2 (14:08):
This is the let's say, the genius of the deal
if you're looking at it from a pure financial flexibility standpoint.
While Semian's aav for luxury tax purposes is higher than
Nimo's twenty five million dollars versus twenty point five cents,
his contract is shorter.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Ah. That's the key.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Nimo's deal goes much longer into the future. This is
crucial for the Mets. It helps cut into their considerable
longer term payroll obligations, giving them significantly more flexibility down
the road to spend on future free agents, even if
they're paying a slightly higher price tag.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Right now, Okay, now, let's look at the Rangers side
of this. They lose a goal glover in Semian, but
they get Brandon Nimo, who is highly valued for his
plate discipline and on base skills.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
The Rangers clearly prioritized improving the focus of their attack.
They needed to move away from that high strikeout power
profile that defined them in twenty twenty five. Nimo is
rated as a better overall hitter than Semian, specifically because
he can consistently get on base, and he's.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
An upgrade in the outfield over at dullest Garcia, who
they non tendered a huge upgrade.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Nimo is a much better hitter for average than both
Semon and Garcia, and has the best plate discipline of
the three. These were sorely needed traits in a Texas
offense that struggled with consistency.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
The power output, though, is a downgrade from both of them,
Isn't it That seems like a strange move for a
team playing in a hitter friendly ballpark.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
It is a slim power upgrade on Semian, but a
clear power downgrade from Garcia. Yes, but Texas desperately needed
better on base skills and contact ability. They're trying to
shift their offensive philosophy away from pure power hitters who
strike out a.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Ton, a strategy that led to some very cold stretches
last season exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Nimo's ability to draw walks and hit for average is
a foundational piece for building a more sustainable offense.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
We also have to consider the venue shift for Nimo.
He's moving from the pitcher friendly confines of City Field
to Glow Life Field.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
That could certainly provide a significant bump to his numbers,
especially home runs. Historically, Globe Life has been a very
solid place to hit, particularly for left handed batters, and
Nimo has typically hit way better on the road than
at City Field. That's an embedded upside. The Rangers are
hoping to unlog, but.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
The trade off is glaring, especially for a team that
relies on stellar defense. You mentioned they lost Garcia, a
strong defender, and now Semion, a gold glover.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
That's the worry that every Ranger's analyst is voiced. The
trade is about remaking the offense, but acquiring Nimo, who's
probably gonna play left field due to arm strength concerns,
and losing a goal glover at second base. It definitely
dents the Rangers overall defense. And the big question is
did the offense need that much help to justify downgrading
(16:45):
two critical defensive positions. I'm not so sure. Nimo's contract
is a longer chump commitment for Texas, but for twenty
twenty six, he makes five point five million dollars less
than Semion, so that helps them reshuffle while rating in
the payroll a little bit.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
We mentioned Dylan CSK going Toronto, which was the first
big Domino to fall in the starting pitching market. So
now we have to ask what does the post Cias
landscape look like. Who are the most attractive arms left
for teams that missed out?
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well Field is still rich, but it immediately narrows, and
the price tags on the remaining guys just went up.
The three most attractive options, especially for teams seeking that
front end talent, are Frambra Valdez, Tatsuya Imai from the
MPB in Japan, and Rajor Suarez.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
So the demand is now squarely focused on those three.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Intensely focused.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Let's really focus on Ranger Suarez, the lefty who rejected
the qualifying offer from the Phillies. Tell us about his profile,
Wolts and All.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Suarez, who is thirty, has been consistently good when he's healthy.
He combines decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground
ball numbers, which makes him effective anywhere. But he carries
two major question marks that make his price tag complicated
velocity and durability. OK, His average fastball sits only around
ninety one to ninety two, which is quite low by
(17:59):
modern standards for an ace, and he has never logged
more than one hundred and sixty innings in a season.
He's always battling these minor injuries.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Given those significant durability and velocity concerns, why is he
so highly sought after? Why is he potentially looking at
one hundred million dollar plus contract.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
It's a postseason edge, it's undeniable, and teams are willing
to pay for that demonstrated ability to perform under pressure.
Suarez has been in the post season with a Phillies
for four straight seasons and forty two to two thirds
innings of October baseball. He has a phenomenal one point
four to eight ERA. That ability to perform under the
brightest lights is hugely valuable to contenders, and it's why
(18:35):
gms are willing to overlook the regular season durability concerns.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
But let me interrupt, there is it wise to base
a nine figure contract primarily on forty innings of spectacular
postseason pitching when we know his regular season durability is
a massive question mark.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
It's the highest stakes gamble a team can take. They
are paying for the narrative as much as the numbers.
They know they need pitching depth that can deliver in October,
and Suarez has proven he can do it. The Astros, Cubs,
and Orioles have been identified as the most serious threats
to sign him, and.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
The Phillies are trying to get him back.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
To the Phillies themselves are actively circling back and the
Mets and the Tigers are also involved. The Mets having
dealt with a ton of rotation injuries in twenty five,
they desperately need that veteran stability, even if it comes
with injury risk.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
And since you rejected the QO, any team that signs
him loses a draft pick. What are the contract predictions
looking like considering that built in penalty?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Well, initial projections from MLB trade rumors suggested five years,
one hundred and fifteen million dollars, but the predictions are scattered,
which reflects the risk. ESPN's estimates have been more conservative,
predicting four years and ninety two million.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Dollars, but I saw one that was way higher you did.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
The Athletic has gone much more aggressive, suggesting six years
and one hundred and fifty three million dollars.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
What market assumption would push them to suggest a six year,
one hundred and fifty three million dollar deal. That's a
massive difference.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
That kind of aggressive projection suggests that the insider believes
the market will just completely overlook the durability issues and
instead prioritize that small sample dominant postseason performance. They're betting
a desperate contender like the Tigers or Orioles will outbid
everyone just to guarantee a frontline arm for the next
half decade, even if he only throws one hundred and
forty hundred and fifty innings a year.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
If teams want genuine frontline potential but don't want that
kind of length or the QO penalty, we have Michael
King as an appealing alternative, don't we.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Absolutely King is extremely attractive because he's got that genuine
frontline potential, but he's also reportedly willing to sign for
a shorter term than the top tier aces. The Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Tigers, Angels, Padres, Marlins.
They've all shown interesting King. It's high upside without the
massive long term risk.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
And then we have the interesting value question around Zach Gallon,
who had a statistically rough twenty twenty five season. He's
essentially a discounted option.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Gallan's platform year was certainly a down year, and it
presents a huge opportunity for a team willing to bet
on a bounce back. He posted a career high four
point eight three ERA and a career low eighty nine
ERA plus feed. That means his ERA was eleven percent
worse than the average pitcher adjusted for ballpark.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
It's bad year, but teams are looking past that one
year and betting on his strong prior track record.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
They are. They're focusing on his track record from twenty
twenty through twenty twenty four, where he hit a consistent
three point three four ERA over one hundred and twenty
eight starts. That four year sample is much stronger evidence
of his talent, and he looked much more like his
old self after August first last year, finishing with a
three point three to two ERA over his last eleven starts.
(21:36):
This makes him a very appealing alternative if the price
on Suarez and Amai gets too high.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Let's contextualize this for the Detroit Tigers, who seemed to
be in on every starting pitcher. Their whole strategy is
tied to the future of their ace, Tarik Scuoball.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
It is the central pillar of their entire rebuilding effort. Yeah,
the Tigers have Turk Scuball, who just won back to
back cy Young Awards. It is projected by some as
a potential four hundred million dollars pitcher. Wow, but he's
only controllable through twenty twenty six. Along with Casey miz
and Jack Flaherty. They have this massive concentration of talent.
They could all disappear at the same time.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
So why the intense pursuit of Swarzen Galen, who will
command one hundred million dollars plus. Why spend now when
they have such good pitching.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Because they're preparing for the armageddon scenario. The Tigers have
one of the cleanest long term payrolls in baseball. They're
interested in Suarez and Galon to give them immediate championship
caliber rotation stability behind Scooble, but more importantly, as protection
in case Scuble, Mize, and Flaherty all depart in free
agency after twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
They're securing a long term anchor now to mitigate that
potential future risk.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
Exactly if those three leave, the Tiger's competitive windows slams shut.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
The starting pitching market is clearly moving, but we also
saw immediate and aggressive spending in the relief market, which
traditionally involves huge risks for those high prices.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Yeah, the reliever market has been surprisingly expensive early on,
even for pitchers who carry significant red flags. We saw
the high outlay for Devin Williams, who signed with the
Mets and Ryan Helsley, who signed with the Orioles. It
just confirms that teas are still absolutely willing to pay
top dollar for established closers despite the volatility.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Let's focus on the Orioles. They made a major push
to fortify their bullpen for new manager Craig Albernaz.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
Albernas has been really vocal about his excitement over getting
closer Ryan Helsley and set up man Andrew Kittrich. Helsley
was deemed a high priority free agent for Baltimore. And
what's interesting here is the leadership element they're banking on.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
Right. I saw the Andrew Miller comments.
Speaker 2 (23:34):
Former Orioles reliever Andrew Miller, who played with Helsley in
Saint Louis, said, Hellsley is the type of guy who
appreciates the team aspect and has the experience to lead
and mold that Baltimore bullpen culture. So they aren't just
buying innings, they're buying presents.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Switching to the NL, the Cincinnati Reds, fresh off making
the postseason, they opted for stability in their own bullpen.
A smart move for a young team.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
Yeah. Emilia Pagan re signed with Cincy for two years,
twenty million dollars. He was a straightforward move to bring
back their closer, who had a career high thirty two
saves last year. Pagan said he wanted to be somewhere
he felt comfortable, had a chance to win, and that
valued him as the closer. Cincinnati checks all three boxes.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Now for the great enigma of the reliever market, Pete Fairbanks.
He became a free agent when the Rays declined his option,
and he immediately has several big clubs interested, including the
Yankees and the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Fairbanks is the definition of a classic, high risk, high
reward closer. From twenty twenty through twenty twenty three, he
was elite a two point sixty six era a huge
thirty four point eight percent strikeout rate, But over the
last two seasons there are major signs of decline.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
What are those signs.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
His strikeout rate cratered down to twenty four percent, He's
lost nearly two MAML power off his fastball, and his
home run rate has almost doubled. He looks like a
pitcher fighting his own mechanics in health.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
So why are the Yankees interested in a fourteen million
dollars per year reliever with this kind of injury? History
and obvious to decl it seems to run counter to
their stated financial goals.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Well, the Yankees have an undeniable, urgent need for bullpen help.
The whole is massive. However, they have a historical aversion
to large bullpen contracts, having been burned repeatedly by guys
like Roldist Chapman and Zach Britton.
Speaker 1 (25:14):
And more importantly, owner hell Steinbrenner has openly said the
ideal situation for twenty twenty six is to actively lower
the payroll exactly.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Allocating fourteen million dollars a year to a high risk
reliever seems completely contrary to that goal, So I have
to question the reported interest. Is this real or is
this a leverage play by Fairbanks agent to force other
teams to bid.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Higher using the Yankees are interested headline to boost his value.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Precisely, given Steinbrenner's comments, I lean toward this being leverage
rather than a likely signing for them.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks seemed desperate enough to
justify the gamble regardless of the price or risk.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
They absolutely are the Dback's bullpen completely fell apart in
twenty twenty five. They finished with a four point eighty
two ERA, fourth worst in baseball. This is largely due
to severe injuries to guys like aj Punk and Justin Martinez.
For Arizona, getting Fairbanks, even with the risk, is a
necessary attempt to plug a massive hole. He's a sensible
and needed target for them.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Moving from free agents to the trade market, we've seen
several teams use their current big league talent to acquire
high upside crossbecks. A perfect example is that Pirate's Red
Sox exchange involving johann Oviedo.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Yeah, this trade was a classic move for youth and
upside for the Pirates. They traded durable starter Johanno Viedo
and a couple other pieces to the Red Sox. In return,
they got outfielder Justinson Garcia, who was Boston's number three prospect,
and a pitcher named Jesus Treviso.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
So the Pirates are gambling two years of proven production
for the potential of future stars.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
That's the play.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
What's the specific appeal and the specific risk of Justinson
Garcia For the.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Pirates, Garcia is the definition of high risk, high reward,
huge power potential. Hit twenty one homers last season across
double A and triple A, but his plate discipline metrics
are alarming. One hundred and thirty one strikeouts against only
forty five walks.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
A very high chase rate.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
An extremely high chase rate, and here's why that matters.
A high chase rate means opposing pitchers don't have to
throw them strikes. They can just feed him Braden balls
out of the zone and he'll swing and miss or
hit weak grounders. He has tremendous raw power, but if
he can't refine his approach, that power will never translate
into consistent on base skills.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Still a good return for Pittsburgh, though, for.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Two years of Oviedo. Getting a prospect of Garcia's caliber
is a nice return based purely on that potential ceiling,
and the.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
Red Sox perspective is simpler. Oviedo plugs an immediate hole
in the rotation without requiring them to give up guys
like Peyton, Tole or Connolly early, and.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
This trade sets the stage for Boston to make a larger,
more impactful move. They have a massive log jam of
talent in the outfield with Duran, Rafaella and Abrayo. By
getting Oviedo, they stabilize their rotation depth. Now they are
positioned to potentially trade one of those outfielders for a
legitimate frontline starter to compete in the Al East.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
Another team openly embracing the reset is the Saint Louis Cardinals.
Their all star utility player Brendan Donovan is attracting heavy interest,
particularly from the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
The Mariners are persistently interested in Donzon, especially if they
miss out on a free agent like Jorge Polanco. The
reports listed three very detailed proposed packages for Donovan that
perfectly illustrate the level of prospect capital the Cardinals are demanding.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Let's break down those packages, starting with the one deemed
the technically fair one.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
That package involves shortstop Cole Young and third basement ty Pete.
Young is nearly MLB ready as a ton of club control.
The problem. He posted a poor seventy eight ops plus
and twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Five, so twenty two percent below league average. Offensively, that's bad,
it's terrible, and Pete stock is severely cratered.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
The consensus is that Saint Louis has every right to
demand more upside than this. It's too much risk, too
little immediate upside.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Then we had the upside play featuring two players with
huge potential, but risks attached.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
That included outfielder Farmelo and catcher Stevenson. Farmelo has plus
plus speed and a huge ceiling, but a concerning history
of soft tissue injuries. Stevenson is a power, overhit catcher
who greatly impressed in Single A, but the Cardinals already
have three catchers in their top six prospects, so it's
a lesser positional fit. It's a good offer, but redundant.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Finally, the one they can't refuse package, which involves two
certified top one hundred prospects miss is Seattle offering up
genuine future stars.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
This is the high cost scenario infield or Arroyo ranked
number sixty three and pitcher Sloan number forty four. Arroyo's
bat is definitely getting to play. He has a career
zero point four zero eight OBP in the miners, but
his future defensive home is uncertain. Sloan is arguably the
Mariner's most exciting pitching prospect.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Mariners surely don't want to treat those guys no.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
But Arroyo's positional uncertainty might make him expendable if it
means getting an All Star caliber player like Donovan. This
pack is the clearest win for Saint Louis.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Beyond Donovan, who else is Saint Louis looking to move?
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Wilson Contreras is a major name being shopped. The San
Diego Padres are reportedly interested in him as an upgrade
at first base and catcher. They could acquire him and
take on the rest of his contract to solve two
positional holes with one move.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
And we also see bullpen pieces moving.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah, Reliable reliever Jojo Romero is attracting interest from the Mariners,
who are looking to add multiple bullpen pieces. Meanwhile, it's
highly unlikely the Cardinals trade Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker
unless it's a massive deal new exact chain. Bloom is
believed to be fundamentally opposed to selling low on those two.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Let's check in on a few specific teams whose off
season strategies are either clear, confusing, or simply massive, Starting
with the New York Yankees. They had a decent season
but face major roster holes, especially on the pitching side.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
The Yankee situation is particularly tricky. Their immediate and most
urgent need is bullpen help. Compounding that, their starting rote
will be without Jarrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clark Schmidt
to start the twenty twenty six season. That's three frontline
arms on the shelf, which.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
Makes their free agent targets very clear. But they also
have to be mindful of those budget restrictions, which limits
them from competing for a Valdez or Suarez exactly.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Given the priority to lower the payroll, pursuing top tier
options is complex. This makes mid tier depth much more realistic.
Lucas Giolito, who had a respectable three point four to
one er last year, is a realistic, budget conscious option,
and I've.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Heard they're reluctant to add another lefty starter.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
It's a very specific preference since they already have rode
On and the prospect Luis Gill throwing from the left side.
The organization prefers to balance the rotation with more high
end right handed arms. They don't want to invest twenty
million dollars a year into another lefty, even a good one.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
And they are facing the perennial headache of the Rule
five draft, which forces tough roster decisions.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
They are the Yankees risk losing high performing undrafted reliever
Harrison Cohen. He's posted back to back seasons with sub
two eras in the Miners. Cohen uses deception from a
low armslot, making him a potential plug and play option
for a desperate MLB bullpen.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
Losing a guy like that for nothing would be a
massive failure.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Especially considering their bullpen needs.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
On the West Coast. The Seattle Mariners are definitely trending upward,
and they've made a foundational, long overdue move at first base.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
The Mariners kicked off their winter by re signing Josh
Naylor to a five year, ninety two point five million
dollars deal. This immediately ends their decades long search for
a long term solution at first base, a position that
has been a black hole for them since the John
Olaru trade in two thousand and four.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Wow that long.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
Since two thousand and five, only the Pirates first basement
have produced a lower cumulative ops than Seattle's. This deal
solves a critical historical problem.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
Naylor is a fascinating player because his performance metrics are
almost a contradiction of his physical tools. Tell us about
this oxymoron player.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
He is a total oxymoron. Naylor ranks in the third
percentile for sprint speed. He was one of the slowest
players in the league, yet he stole thirty bases in
thirty two attempts in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
How is that possible?
Speaker 2 (33:10):
It's incredible. He is a high contact hitter, finishing with
the seventeenth best strikeout rate and yet ranks in the
seventh percentile for chase rate. He is a safe, predictable,
high OBP player who somehow managed to become an elite
high efficiency base dealer. He fills a huge gap for them.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
And culturally, the Mariners are clearly building momentum.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
According to Google's Year in Search, the Seattle Mariners were
the top trending team in the United States in twenty
twenty five. That reflects a new level of national interest,
and they're wisely building a strong coaching staff, adding former
catcher Astin Nola this offseason.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Finally, let's look at the two time defending champions, the
Los Angeles Dodgers. What's going on in LA post championship?
They never rest.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
They are as always relentlessly focused on maintaining championship level talent.
The first feel good story was resigning mc L Rojas
to a one year five point five million dollar deal.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
The World Series Hero, the thirty six.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Year old hero who hit that game tying homer in
Game seven against the Blue Jays. He confirmed twenty twenty
six will be his final season before moving into a
player development role. It's a great example of organizational loyalty, a.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Great story, but their real focus remains on acquiring elite pitching.
As evidenced by that blockbuster rumor involving the Tigers and
Trek Skuble.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
The proposed trade is stunning. The Dodger sending Tyler Glassnow,
Emmett Cheehan and zaiher Hope to the Tigers for the
backback cy young winner Terrek Skuble.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
They're willing to trade a starlight Glasnow to get him.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Because Scooble is considered a generational talent. A rotation featuring Yamamoto, Scooble, Otawni,
and Blake Snell would make them nearly unbeatable in a
seven game series.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
That is an unimaginable amount of pitching talent. It would
be the most dominant rotation we've seen in a generation.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
It would be, and it just shows the dodgers relentless
focus on the future. And despite that, we've also seen
outfielder Taskar Hernandez in involved in trade conversations.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
What's the rationale for trading a power bat like Hernandez.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Hernandez has hit twenty five homers in five straight seasons,
but his defense hasn't been fantastic and they have depth.
While the Dodgers currently view a trade as unlikely, the
fact that it's even being considered shows their willingness to
move core players to address other priorities like the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
This high stakes activity, especially the massive payrolls from the
Dodgers in the Blue Jays, immediately brings up the broader
context of baseball's labor landscape and the intensifying debate over
payroll disparity.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
This is critical to the future of the sport. The
Dodgers are going into the offseason with an estimated three
hundred and thirty two million dollars payroll, while the Marlins
are at the bottom with fifty nine million dollars. That
massive discrepancy is what sparks these debates.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
And this is all happening as the MLB Players Association
is preparing for potentially contentious CBA negotiations next December. The
stakes are incredibly high.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
The core issue for the MLBPA remains the salary recap.
The Union has been firmly against any form of a
salary cap since the nineteen ninety four strike, believing it
would just diminish player earnings and allow owners to pay
guys below their true market value.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
And the reason this matters to you, the listener, is
that this disparity directly impacts competitive equity and could threaten
to stop the next baseball season dead in its tracks.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
And here is the great irony. Despite the massive spending
disparity and the lack of a hard cap, MLB is
often cited as having the most parity among major North
American sports.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Over the last twenty five years, MLB has seen sixteen
different championship winners, which is more than the NHL, NFL,
and NBA, all of which have salary caps. The twenty
twenty five Mets, with the second highest payroll, missed the
playoffs entirely. It proves spending alone doesn't guarantee success.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
Shifting gears slightly, let's look at the strength of some
minor league systems, specifically the Detroit Tigers, as a counterpoint
to massive free agents spending.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
Baseball America recently updated its Tigers prospect list, confirming the
exceptional strength of their farm system, especially a double A.
The offensive trio of Max Clark, Kevin McGonagall and hufue
Brussagno have been the talk of minor league baseball.
Speaker 1 (37:12):
Now they have plenty of help on the way.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
They do, which is why they can pursue veteran anchors
like Suarez and Galon now to fill the gap until
those prospects arrive.
Speaker 1 (37:20):
Finally, we have a great human interest story that shows
the dedication of one of baseball's newest superstars, The Pirates.
Ace and NLC Young winner Paul skeens Skiings.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
Recently took part in his first USO tour, joined by
his girlfriend jymnast Livy Dunn. They visited sailors aboard the
us S, Gerald R. Ford and the USS Mayhan, meeting
with over thirteen hundred service members. This commitment to the
military community is deeply ingrained in him.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
He was the Pirate's nominee for the Clemente Award last season.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Right he was largely due to his pledge of one
hundred dollars per strikeout to the Gary Sonice Foundation. He
racked up two hundred and sixteen strikeouts, setting a new
franchise record, and surpassed his one hundred thousand dollars fundraising goal.
It's just a great example of an athlete using his
platform for significant community work.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Well, this offseason has flown out of the gate. We've
seen the Blue Jays aggressive pitching push with Cease and
the high upside gamble on Ponce, the blockbuster Semian Nemo
swap signal to shift in team philosophies, and the pitching
market remains intensely focused on the few high end names left.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
The central tension is definitely between those teams buying immediate
championship windows like the Dodgers targeting scooball at all costs,
and those attempting a painful but necessary reload through prospects
and cost control like the Cardinals and the Pirates. Everyone
is defining their future right now.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
So what does this all mean for the coming months
As we head toward the winter meetings and the new year.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
We need to focus back on the Texas Rangers. They
just made a major philosophical pivot. They traded away a
gold glove defender, Marcus Semion, to acquire the offensive skills
of Brendan Neimo, signaling they prioritize on base skills over
elite defense in that crucial middle infield old spot.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
And the ultimate question for the twenty twenty six season
is will.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
The decision to dent their defense in an effort to
truly remake their offense be the move that pays off
allowing their offense to carry them, or will the defensive
losses ultimately cost them enough runs to derail their next
championship run. That philosophical trade off between leather and lumber
in Texas is going to be the storyline to watch
next year.
Welcome to the epicenter of the hot stove. If you
thought this particular off season was going to start slow,
well you have been thoroughly disabused of that notion in
the last few days. Oh. Absolutely, we are now officially
elbow deep in the deals, the rumors, and the transactions
that will absolutely shape the competitive landscape for the twenty
twenty six baseball season.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It's true the pace has I mean, it's intensified dramatically,
mainly because we're just barreling right toward the Winter meetings exactly.
We've seen some massive, massive contracts handed out, some fully justified, others,
you know, maybe less so, a genuine blockbuster trade, and
the market for the biggest names is just white hot
right now.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Okay, let's unpack this. We have to start with the
team that seems to be operating with an unlimited budget
and a clear singular mandate to win a World Series,
and that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
It has to be them.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
They wasted absolutely no time in setting the tone for
a high cost off season by immediately securing one of
the winter's top pitching prizes.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, the Blue Jays aggression has been the singular headline
so far. Yeah, we saw the confirmed report of the
I mean absolutely massive seven year, two hundred and ten
million dollar contract for Picture Dylan Cease. Wow, and Cease
was without question the top high volume domestic arm on
the market. That was a huge defining move right out
of the gate, clearly signaling they want to build on
(01:22):
winning the al Pennant last season. They are not satisfied
with just making it. They want the title.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
And it wasn't just the big splash either. Almost at
the same time, they showed a really keen strategic eye
by making another significant investment in the rotation, but this
time looking across the.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Pacific, the Cody Ponts deal.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
They signed the former KBO MVP Cody Ponts to a
three year, thirty million dollar deal. That's what two hundred
and forty million dollars deployed into just two starting pitchers
before December even started. That level of spending is astounding.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
It speaks to a very specific, you know, a two
pronged strategy. First, get frontline stability at almost any cost.
And second, and this is critical to think, what they
see is high upside gambles on pitchers returning from Asia
hoping to replicate some of those recent successes we've seen.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Right the Merril Kelly model exactly.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And you have to remember this isn't just padding the
back of the roster. These are multi million dollar contracts
designed to make them World Series contenders, maybe even the
outright favorites.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And speaking of high impact moves, we also had a
major position player trade that quite literally swapped coasts and
shook up the balance of power. We're talking, of course,
about Marcus Semion going to the Mets and Brandon Neimo
heading over to the Texas Rangers.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That trade signals that several big market teams are just
aggressively reshaping their identity, even if it means, you know,
sacrificing talent they just paid a lot of money for.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
It's fascinating it is.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
The Rangers, who rely on defense, are certainly remaking their
offense and taking a hit on d while the Mets
are clearly trying to fix their own defensive shortcomings, even
if it meant taking on a complicated contract profile with
an older player.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
The strategic trade offs here are just fascinating to break down.
So that's our focus today. We are going to cut
through all the rumor mills and the chatter to focus
on the key transactions, the biggest remaining free agent markets,
and most importantly, the strategic decisions teams are making right now.
We're looking not just at twenty twenty six, but at
the long term competitive window these decisions open or close.
(03:23):
We've got a lot of ground to cover.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Let's pivot now to the biggest bats still hanging out
there in the free agency pool, the undisputed number one
hitter on the market, Kyle Tucker. Yeah, he is the
definition of consistent elite performance, a corner outfielder who offers speed, power,
and reliable contact that really few others can match.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Absolutely, we're talking about a true five tool player who
just rarely goes through prolonged slumps. He's got a career
point eight sixty five ops, which is outstanding, and he's
consistently hit twenty plus homers and reached double figures and
steals in each of the past five full seasons.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
That combination is just so rare.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
It is that power, that speed, and that reliability is
incredibly ware and it's precisely why he commands the full
attention of every major contender who needs that middle of
the order presence and based on all the reports, the
Toronto Blue Jays, fresh off their massive pitching spending spree,
are definitely positioning themselves as the front runners here.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh. Absolutely, There's a.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Confirmed report that Tucker actually visited the Blue Jays player
development facility down in Dindon, Florida. That suggests genuine mutual
interest and I mean real aggressiveness on Toronto's part to
land him early.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
That visit immediately puts intense pressure on the rest of
the league. It says we are ready to spend and
we are ready to move quickly.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Right.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
But what's fascinating here is the immediate conflict we saw
between major Baseball insiders about his signing timeline. This is
where you really see the two competing philosophies and free
agency playout.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Okay, so let's talk about those. What was the argument
for Tucker moving fast?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
What one perspective this is from Buster Only at ESPN
suggested that because Tucker is so widely projected as a
potential forty million dollar plus aav player, it might actually
be smart for him to move quickly.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Get the deal done.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Exactly if he gets an aggressive early bid, say a
nine or ten year deal for four hundred million dollars
from a team like the Blue Jays or the Dodgers.
Moving quickly lets him lock in that record number and
avoid any risk of the market softening later. It capitalizes
on that initial rush of team enthusiasm.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
So hit the market fast, grab the big money before
other guys sign and budget start to shrink. But then
we had the complete opposite take.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Correct, We had Jeff Pass encountering that reporting that Tucker
is not close to done yet and suggesting that extreme
patience is actually required here, so wait it out. Yeah.
This implies that despite Toronto's early push and the facility visit,
his agent believes that by waiting they can generate this
intense competitive tension among all the interested clubs. The goal
(05:54):
isn't to just take the first four hundred million dollar offer,
but to ensure that multiple teams are forced to bid
four hundred million dollars or.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
More to maximize the final number.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Exactly maximize the total value, and potentially push the guaranteed
years even higher.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
That makes perfect sense. I mean, when you are the
undisputed top guy, you hold all the leverage, You take
your time to extract every last dollar you do, so
who else beyond Toronto are the big market teams rumored
to be seriously in the mix.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Well, the usual suspects are circling aggressively, the Dodgers, who
are always looking to upgrade around Muoki and show hey,
the Mets, even after the semi in trade, need more offense,
and of course the Yankees, who desperately need reliable, high
end production. All three are heavily rumored to have had
meetings or at least made preliminary offers.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And if a team misses out on Tucker, who's the
immediate pivot? Where does that money go?
Speaker 2 (06:47):
That's the key for strategic planning. The teams that miss
on Tucker, and there will be many, could pivot very
very quickly to the second best free agent outfielder out there,
who is Cody bellingcher right, Billinger offers similar left handed
power in a defense, though maybe with a little less
consistency and more volatility and his overall profile, Bellinger will
be the next major domino to fall once Tucker makes
(07:07):
his decision, which you know could still be weeks away.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
The Blue Jays are clearly pushing their chips all in
that massive contract for Seuss and now the pursuit of
Tucker shows they are well financially fearless. But let's dive
a little deeper into the pitching gambits, particularly that highly
intriguing Cody Punce deal.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
That seven year, two hundred and ten million dollar deal
for Dylancy's was undeniably a statement of intent. It established
them as a financial heavyweight. But I agree the more intriguing,
almost high risk, high reward move is the three year,
thirty million dollars signing of Cody.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Punts the KBO MVP.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Right, It's the kind of move they either looks absolutely
genius in three years or you know, just disastrous.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Let's focus on the risk because this is where the
story gets really compelling. When Punts was less than the
major is in twenty twenty one with the Pirates, he
was I mean, statistically just performing at a catastrophic level.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Catastrophic is the right word. He was statistically one of
the worst pitchers in baseball that year. If you looked
at pitchers with at least thirty five innings pitched, Pons
ranked four hundred and twenty six out of four hundred
and thirty six pitchers in a bunch of key categories.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Bottom of the barrel.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Era batting average allowed ops allowed. He was dead last
across the board in terms of suppressing offense. That's a
massive hole he has to dig out of.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
He then went over to the KBO, completely remade himself,
and comes back as the KBO MVP. The Blue Jays
are clearly banking on that success story model, right the
one established by other guys who returned from Korea, and.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
There are good historical comparisons. Look at Merrill Kelly, who
returned in twenty nineteen at age thirty and has since
averaged what three point three war per one hundred and
sixty two games.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
And Eric said more recently or Eric fed.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
He went to Korea in twenty three one MVP and
then came back to post a phenomenal five point six
war season in twenty twenty four, though he did slip
a bit in the second half of twenty five. The
model is proven, but it is far from guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
So if the model is proven but volatile, what gives
the Blue Jays confidence in Pont, specifically given that dreadful
MLB track record?
Speaker 2 (09:07):
The report suggests the belief is really tied to his
stuff and how it's progressed. He reportedly throws harder than
both Kelly and Fetti did when they came back. Oh interest,
that higher velocity, specifically his ability to generate a ninety
five plus mar of fastball, gives them confidence that he
can immediately be a successful mid rotation starter here, not
just a back end guy.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
But let me play skeptic for a moment. He was
statistically the worst pitcher in baseball just three years ago.
To simply adding a couple miles per hour playing against
a significantly lesser league in the KBO suddenly make him
a ten million dollars a year starter. That seems like
a massive leap of faith.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
It is a massive lead, which is why the financial
structure of the deal is so key. That's where the
analysis of this being a worthy gamble comes in. It's
all about the value proposition.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Break that down for us.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Okay, so, standard baseball analytics suggests that one win above
replacement or one war is typically that between eight and
ten million dollars on the open market. This contract pays
Ponts ten million dollars a year.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Right.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Therefore, if Ponce produces just one war per season over
those three years, the Blue Jays have essentially just broken
even they've earned back the money and he's been a
replacement level player.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
So he just needs to be averaged to pay his
own way exactly.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
But if he reaches two war per season, so six
total war over the life of the contract, the deal
immediately becomes a great deal for Toronto. They're saving money,
and if by some miracle he hits the levels of
a returning Kelly or Fed and produces, you know, three
war a year, it'll be hailed as one of the best,
most shrewd deals of the entire offseason.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
For ten million dollars a year, that upside makes the
risk worth it.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
That's the calculation they're making.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
This aggressive spending, both on the acs and the gamble ponts.
It naturally folds into the bigger narrative around their current core,
specifically star shortstop Bobashet.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Right there's been intense speculation that if Toronto's signed an
elite back like Kyle Tucker, it would necessarily rule out
resigning Beshett long term because of the massive payroll implications.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
You can't afford everyone, especially if you have to pay
four hundred million dollars for Tucker.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
That's the conventional wisdom, but insider John Hyman suggests that
signing Tucker would not necessarily preclude them from bringing Bshett back.
The implication is that ownership is willing to accept an
unprecedented payroll in pursuit of the title, viewing this as
their only shot to win multiple championships with this core.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
If they manage to pull that off, cease ponce Tucker,
and retain Bashett, they would be the overwhelming World Series
favorite heading into twenty twenty six. I mean, that's one
of the most powerful lineups in baseball, but it would
come with one of the highest payrolls in the history
of a game.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
And that kind of spending is why we're going to
have the labor discussions. We'll get to later, but for now,
the threat of Bishett leaving is definitely real. The reports
mentioned the Atlanta Braves are rumored to have significant interest
in his bat. Shortstop is still a priority for them,
and beshit Je provides elite offense even with those well
documented defensive question marks.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Moving from the mega contracts in Toronto, let's look at
the mega trade that reshuffled the middle infields and outfields
of two perennial contenders, the Rangers and the Mets. Marcus
Semeon heads to New York, Brandon Nimo heads to Texas.
This is a complex swap, so let's dive into the
perspective of the Mets first. What exactly do they gain
by bringing in a thirty five year old Seman.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Well, the Mets are making a clear defensive priority move.
They're getting a Gold Glove defender at second base, someone
who is just vastly superior defensively to Jeff McNeil.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Who they've been trying to move off the position.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Anyway, Exactly, it's a significant measurable upgrade in fielding metrics,
which was clearly a priority for them after their defensive
metrics really suffered in that twenty twenty five collapse.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
But I have to push back on the enthusiasm for Semon.
There's a major looming risk associated with him, specifically his
age and his offensive trend.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
You absolutely should Sam is thirty five, and while he
was an AL MVP runner up during the Rangers twenty
twenty three title run, his offensive numbers have definitely trended
south over the past two seasons. He's been just below
league average.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Which for a middle infielder is not great.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
For a middle infielder at that age. It's a precarious
baseline and the forecast isn't great. The expectation is that
the offense will only decline further. So the Mets are
paying a premium for his defense and his leadership.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
And what's the most head scratching part about this move
from the Mets long term perspective.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
It's the depth chart congestion. The Mets are already incredibly
deep in high quality, high upside infield prospects, guys like
Louis Angelacuna, Ronny Marisio, Jet Williams, all of whom have
considerably more upside than Semian at this stage of his career.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
So it blocks them.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
It seems to block those internal options in the short term,
potentially creating a bottleneck that delays their whole organizational reset.
They must believe Semian is a crucial two year stop
gap to stabilize the defense while those guys finish developing.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
So the argument has to come down to the financial strategy. Then,
how does Semon's contract help New York manage their massive payroll?
Speaker 2 (14:08):
This is the let's say, the genius of the deal
if you're looking at it from a pure financial flexibility standpoint.
While Semian's aav for luxury tax purposes is higher than
Nimo's twenty five million dollars versus twenty point five cents,
his contract is shorter.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Ah. That's the key.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Nimo's deal goes much longer into the future. This is
crucial for the Mets. It helps cut into their considerable
longer term payroll obligations, giving them significantly more flexibility down
the road to spend on future free agents, even if
they're paying a slightly higher price tag.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Right now, Okay, now, let's look at the Rangers side
of this. They lose a goal glover in Semian, but
they get Brandon Nimo, who is highly valued for his
plate discipline and on base skills.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
The Rangers clearly prioritized improving the focus of their attack.
They needed to move away from that high strikeout power
profile that defined them in twenty twenty five. Nimo is
rated as a better overall hitter than Semian, specifically because
he can consistently get on base, and he's.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
An upgrade in the outfield over at dullest Garcia, who
they non tendered a huge upgrade.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Nimo is a much better hitter for average than both
Semon and Garcia, and has the best plate discipline of
the three. These were sorely needed traits in a Texas
offense that struggled with consistency.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
The power output, though, is a downgrade from both of them,
Isn't it That seems like a strange move for a
team playing in a hitter friendly ballpark.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
It is a slim power upgrade on Semian, but a
clear power downgrade from Garcia. Yes, but Texas desperately needed
better on base skills and contact ability. They're trying to
shift their offensive philosophy away from pure power hitters who
strike out a.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Ton, a strategy that led to some very cold stretches
last season exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Nimo's ability to draw walks and hit for average is
a foundational piece for building a more sustainable offense.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
We also have to consider the venue shift for Nimo.
He's moving from the pitcher friendly confines of City Field
to Glow Life Field.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
That could certainly provide a significant bump to his numbers,
especially home runs. Historically, Globe Life has been a very
solid place to hit, particularly for left handed batters, and
Nimo has typically hit way better on the road than
at City Field. That's an embedded upside. The Rangers are
hoping to unlog, but.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
The trade off is glaring, especially for a team that
relies on stellar defense. You mentioned they lost Garcia, a
strong defender, and now Semion, a gold glover.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
That's the worry that every Ranger's analyst is voiced. The
trade is about remaking the offense, but acquiring Nimo, who's
probably gonna play left field due to arm strength concerns,
and losing a goal glover at second base. It definitely
dents the Rangers overall defense. And the big question is
did the offense need that much help to justify downgrading
(16:45):
two critical defensive positions. I'm not so sure. Nimo's contract
is a longer chump commitment for Texas, but for twenty
twenty six, he makes five point five million dollars less
than Semion, so that helps them reshuffle while rating in
the payroll a little bit.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
We mentioned Dylan CSK going Toronto, which was the first
big Domino to fall in the starting pitching market. So
now we have to ask what does the post Cias
landscape look like. Who are the most attractive arms left
for teams that missed out?
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well Field is still rich, but it immediately narrows, and
the price tags on the remaining guys just went up.
The three most attractive options, especially for teams seeking that
front end talent, are Frambra Valdez, Tatsuya Imai from the
MPB in Japan, and Rajor Suarez.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
So the demand is now squarely focused on those three.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Intensely focused.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Let's really focus on Ranger Suarez, the lefty who rejected
the qualifying offer from the Phillies. Tell us about his profile,
Wolts and All.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Suarez, who is thirty, has been consistently good when he's healthy.
He combines decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground
ball numbers, which makes him effective anywhere. But he carries
two major question marks that make his price tag complicated
velocity and durability. OK, His average fastball sits only around
ninety one to ninety two, which is quite low by
(17:59):
modern standards for an ace, and he has never logged
more than one hundred and sixty innings in a season.
He's always battling these minor injuries.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Given those significant durability and velocity concerns, why is he
so highly sought after? Why is he potentially looking at
one hundred million dollar plus contract.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
It's a postseason edge, it's undeniable, and teams are willing
to pay for that demonstrated ability to perform under pressure.
Suarez has been in the post season with a Phillies
for four straight seasons and forty two to two thirds
innings of October baseball. He has a phenomenal one point
four to eight ERA. That ability to perform under the
brightest lights is hugely valuable to contenders, and it's why
(18:35):
gms are willing to overlook the regular season durability concerns.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
But let me interrupt, there is it wise to base
a nine figure contract primarily on forty innings of spectacular
postseason pitching when we know his regular season durability is
a massive question mark.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
It's the highest stakes gamble a team can take. They
are paying for the narrative as much as the numbers.
They know they need pitching depth that can deliver in October,
and Suarez has proven he can do it. The Astros, Cubs,
and Orioles have been identified as the most serious threats
to sign him, and.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
The Phillies are trying to get him back.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
To the Phillies themselves are actively circling back and the
Mets and the Tigers are also involved. The Mets having
dealt with a ton of rotation injuries in twenty five,
they desperately need that veteran stability, even if it comes
with injury risk.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
And since you rejected the QO, any team that signs
him loses a draft pick. What are the contract predictions
looking like considering that built in penalty?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Well, initial projections from MLB trade rumors suggested five years,
one hundred and fifteen million dollars, but the predictions are scattered,
which reflects the risk. ESPN's estimates have been more conservative,
predicting four years and ninety two million.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Dollars, but I saw one that was way higher you did.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
The Athletic has gone much more aggressive, suggesting six years
and one hundred and fifty three million dollars.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
What market assumption would push them to suggest a six year,
one hundred and fifty three million dollar deal. That's a
massive difference.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
That kind of aggressive projection suggests that the insider believes
the market will just completely overlook the durability issues and
instead prioritize that small sample dominant postseason performance. They're betting
a desperate contender like the Tigers or Orioles will outbid
everyone just to guarantee a frontline arm for the next
half decade, even if he only throws one hundred and
forty hundred and fifty innings a year.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
If teams want genuine frontline potential but don't want that
kind of length or the QO penalty, we have Michael
King as an appealing alternative, don't we.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Absolutely King is extremely attractive because he's got that genuine
frontline potential, but he's also reportedly willing to sign for
a shorter term than the top tier aces. The Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Tigers, Angels, Padres, Marlins.
They've all shown interesting King. It's high upside without the
massive long term risk.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
And then we have the interesting value question around Zach Gallon,
who had a statistically rough twenty twenty five season. He's
essentially a discounted option.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Gallan's platform year was certainly a down year, and it
presents a huge opportunity for a team willing to bet
on a bounce back. He posted a career high four
point eight three ERA and a career low eighty nine
ERA plus feed. That means his ERA was eleven percent
worse than the average pitcher adjusted for ballpark.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
It's bad year, but teams are looking past that one
year and betting on his strong prior track record.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
They are. They're focusing on his track record from twenty
twenty through twenty twenty four, where he hit a consistent
three point three four ERA over one hundred and twenty
eight starts. That four year sample is much stronger evidence
of his talent, and he looked much more like his
old self after August first last year, finishing with a
three point three to two ERA over his last eleven starts.
(21:36):
This makes him a very appealing alternative if the price
on Suarez and Amai gets too high.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Let's contextualize this for the Detroit Tigers, who seemed to
be in on every starting pitcher. Their whole strategy is
tied to the future of their ace, Tarik Scuoball.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
It is the central pillar of their entire rebuilding effort. Yeah,
the Tigers have Turk Scuball, who just won back to
back cy Young Awards. It is projected by some as
a potential four hundred million dollars pitcher. Wow, but he's
only controllable through twenty twenty six. Along with Casey miz
and Jack Flaherty. They have this massive concentration of talent.
They could all disappear at the same time.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
So why the intense pursuit of Swarzen Galen, who will
command one hundred million dollars plus. Why spend now when
they have such good pitching.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Because they're preparing for the armageddon scenario. The Tigers have
one of the cleanest long term payrolls in baseball. They're
interested in Suarez and Galon to give them immediate championship
caliber rotation stability behind Scooble, but more importantly, as protection
in case Scuble, Mize, and Flaherty all depart in free
agency after twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
They're securing a long term anchor now to mitigate that
potential future risk.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
Exactly if those three leave, the Tiger's competitive windows slams shut.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
The starting pitching market is clearly moving, but we also
saw immediate and aggressive spending in the relief market, which
traditionally involves huge risks for those high prices.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Yeah, the reliever market has been surprisingly expensive early on,
even for pitchers who carry significant red flags. We saw
the high outlay for Devin Williams, who signed with the
Mets and Ryan Helsley, who signed with the Orioles. It
just confirms that teas are still absolutely willing to pay
top dollar for established closers despite the volatility.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Let's focus on the Orioles. They made a major push
to fortify their bullpen for new manager Craig Albernaz.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
Albernas has been really vocal about his excitement over getting
closer Ryan Helsley and set up man Andrew Kittrich. Helsley
was deemed a high priority free agent for Baltimore. And
what's interesting here is the leadership element they're banking on.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
Right. I saw the Andrew Miller comments.
Speaker 2 (23:34):
Former Orioles reliever Andrew Miller, who played with Helsley in
Saint Louis, said, Hellsley is the type of guy who
appreciates the team aspect and has the experience to lead
and mold that Baltimore bullpen culture. So they aren't just
buying innings, they're buying presents.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Switching to the NL, the Cincinnati Reds, fresh off making
the postseason, they opted for stability in their own bullpen.
A smart move for a young team.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
Yeah. Emilia Pagan re signed with Cincy for two years,
twenty million dollars. He was a straightforward move to bring
back their closer, who had a career high thirty two
saves last year. Pagan said he wanted to be somewhere
he felt comfortable, had a chance to win, and that
valued him as the closer. Cincinnati checks all three boxes.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Now for the great enigma of the reliever market, Pete Fairbanks.
He became a free agent when the Rays declined his option,
and he immediately has several big clubs interested, including the
Yankees and the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
Fairbanks is the definition of a classic, high risk, high
reward closer. From twenty twenty through twenty twenty three, he
was elite a two point sixty six era a huge
thirty four point eight percent strikeout rate, But over the
last two seasons there are major signs of decline.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
What are those signs.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
His strikeout rate cratered down to twenty four percent, He's
lost nearly two MAML power off his fastball, and his
home run rate has almost doubled. He looks like a
pitcher fighting his own mechanics in health.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
So why are the Yankees interested in a fourteen million
dollars per year reliever with this kind of injury? History
and obvious to decl it seems to run counter to
their stated financial goals.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Well, the Yankees have an undeniable, urgent need for bullpen help.
The whole is massive. However, they have a historical aversion
to large bullpen contracts, having been burned repeatedly by guys
like Roldist Chapman and Zach Britton.
Speaker 1 (25:14):
And more importantly, owner hell Steinbrenner has openly said the
ideal situation for twenty twenty six is to actively lower
the payroll exactly.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Allocating fourteen million dollars a year to a high risk
reliever seems completely contrary to that goal, So I have
to question the reported interest. Is this real or is
this a leverage play by Fairbanks agent to force other
teams to bid.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Higher using the Yankees are interested headline to boost his value.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Precisely, given Steinbrenner's comments, I lean toward this being leverage
rather than a likely signing for them.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks seemed desperate enough to
justify the gamble regardless of the price or risk.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
They absolutely are the Dback's bullpen completely fell apart in
twenty twenty five. They finished with a four point eighty
two ERA, fourth worst in baseball. This is largely due
to severe injuries to guys like aj Punk and Justin Martinez.
For Arizona, getting Fairbanks, even with the risk, is a
necessary attempt to plug a massive hole. He's a sensible
and needed target for them.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Moving from free agents to the trade market, we've seen
several teams use their current big league talent to acquire
high upside crossbecks. A perfect example is that Pirate's Red
Sox exchange involving johann Oviedo.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Yeah, this trade was a classic move for youth and
upside for the Pirates. They traded durable starter Johanno Viedo
and a couple other pieces to the Red Sox. In return,
they got outfielder Justinson Garcia, who was Boston's number three prospect,
and a pitcher named Jesus Treviso.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
So the Pirates are gambling two years of proven production
for the potential of future stars.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
That's the play.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
What's the specific appeal and the specific risk of Justinson
Garcia For the.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Pirates, Garcia is the definition of high risk, high reward,
huge power potential. Hit twenty one homers last season across
double A and triple A, but his plate discipline metrics
are alarming. One hundred and thirty one strikeouts against only
forty five walks.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
A very high chase rate.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
An extremely high chase rate, and here's why that matters.
A high chase rate means opposing pitchers don't have to
throw them strikes. They can just feed him Braden balls
out of the zone and he'll swing and miss or
hit weak grounders. He has tremendous raw power, but if
he can't refine his approach, that power will never translate
into consistent on base skills.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Still a good return for Pittsburgh, though, for.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Two years of Oviedo. Getting a prospect of Garcia's caliber
is a nice return based purely on that potential ceiling,
and the.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
Red Sox perspective is simpler. Oviedo plugs an immediate hole
in the rotation without requiring them to give up guys
like Peyton, Tole or Connolly early, and.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
This trade sets the stage for Boston to make a larger,
more impactful move. They have a massive log jam of
talent in the outfield with Duran, Rafaella and Abrayo. By
getting Oviedo, they stabilize their rotation depth. Now they are
positioned to potentially trade one of those outfielders for a
legitimate frontline starter to compete in the Al East.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
Another team openly embracing the reset is the Saint Louis Cardinals.
Their all star utility player Brendan Donovan is attracting heavy interest,
particularly from the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
The Mariners are persistently interested in Donzon, especially if they
miss out on a free agent like Jorge Polanco. The
reports listed three very detailed proposed packages for Donovan that
perfectly illustrate the level of prospect capital the Cardinals are demanding.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Let's break down those packages, starting with the one deemed
the technically fair one.
Speaker 2 (28:32):
That package involves shortstop Cole Young and third basement ty Pete.
Young is nearly MLB ready as a ton of club control.
The problem. He posted a poor seventy eight ops plus
and twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Five, so twenty two percent below league average. Offensively, that's bad,
it's terrible, and Pete stock is severely cratered.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
The consensus is that Saint Louis has every right to
demand more upside than this. It's too much risk, too
little immediate upside.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Then we had the upside play featuring two players with
huge potential, but risks attached.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
That included outfielder Farmelo and catcher Stevenson. Farmelo has plus
plus speed and a huge ceiling, but a concerning history
of soft tissue injuries. Stevenson is a power, overhit catcher
who greatly impressed in Single A, but the Cardinals already
have three catchers in their top six prospects, so it's
a lesser positional fit. It's a good offer, but redundant.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Finally, the one they can't refuse package, which involves two
certified top one hundred prospects miss is Seattle offering up
genuine future stars.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
This is the high cost scenario infield or Arroyo ranked
number sixty three and pitcher Sloan number forty four. Arroyo's
bat is definitely getting to play. He has a career
zero point four zero eight OBP in the miners, but
his future defensive home is uncertain. Sloan is arguably the
Mariner's most exciting pitching prospect.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Mariners surely don't want to treat those guys no.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
But Arroyo's positional uncertainty might make him expendable if it
means getting an All Star caliber player like Donovan. This
pack is the clearest win for Saint Louis.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Beyond Donovan, who else is Saint Louis looking to move?
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Wilson Contreras is a major name being shopped. The San
Diego Padres are reportedly interested in him as an upgrade
at first base and catcher. They could acquire him and
take on the rest of his contract to solve two
positional holes with one move.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
And we also see bullpen pieces moving.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah, Reliable reliever Jojo Romero is attracting interest from the Mariners,
who are looking to add multiple bullpen pieces. Meanwhile, it's
highly unlikely the Cardinals trade Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker
unless it's a massive deal new exact chain. Bloom is
believed to be fundamentally opposed to selling low on those two.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Let's check in on a few specific teams whose off
season strategies are either clear, confusing, or simply massive, Starting
with the New York Yankees. They had a decent season
but face major roster holes, especially on the pitching side.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
The Yankee situation is particularly tricky. Their immediate and most
urgent need is bullpen help. Compounding that, their starting rote
will be without Jarrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clark Schmidt
to start the twenty twenty six season. That's three frontline
arms on the shelf, which.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
Makes their free agent targets very clear. But they also
have to be mindful of those budget restrictions, which limits
them from competing for a Valdez or Suarez exactly.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Given the priority to lower the payroll, pursuing top tier
options is complex. This makes mid tier depth much more realistic.
Lucas Giolito, who had a respectable three point four to
one er last year, is a realistic, budget conscious option,
and I've.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Heard they're reluctant to add another lefty starter.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
It's a very specific preference since they already have rode
On and the prospect Luis Gill throwing from the left side.
The organization prefers to balance the rotation with more high
end right handed arms. They don't want to invest twenty
million dollars a year into another lefty, even a good one.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
And they are facing the perennial headache of the Rule
five draft, which forces tough roster decisions.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
They are the Yankees risk losing high performing undrafted reliever
Harrison Cohen. He's posted back to back seasons with sub
two eras in the Miners. Cohen uses deception from a
low armslot, making him a potential plug and play option
for a desperate MLB bullpen.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
Losing a guy like that for nothing would be a
massive failure.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Especially considering their bullpen needs.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
On the West Coast. The Seattle Mariners are definitely trending upward,
and they've made a foundational, long overdue move at first base.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
The Mariners kicked off their winter by re signing Josh
Naylor to a five year, ninety two point five million
dollars deal. This immediately ends their decades long search for
a long term solution at first base, a position that
has been a black hole for them since the John
Olaru trade in two thousand and four.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Wow that long.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
Since two thousand and five, only the Pirates first basement
have produced a lower cumulative ops than Seattle's. This deal
solves a critical historical problem.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
Naylor is a fascinating player because his performance metrics are
almost a contradiction of his physical tools. Tell us about
this oxymoron player.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
He is a total oxymoron. Naylor ranks in the third
percentile for sprint speed. He was one of the slowest
players in the league, yet he stole thirty bases in
thirty two attempts in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
How is that possible?
Speaker 2 (33:10):
It's incredible. He is a high contact hitter, finishing with
the seventeenth best strikeout rate and yet ranks in the
seventh percentile for chase rate. He is a safe, predictable,
high OBP player who somehow managed to become an elite
high efficiency base dealer. He fills a huge gap for them.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
And culturally, the Mariners are clearly building momentum.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
According to Google's Year in Search, the Seattle Mariners were
the top trending team in the United States in twenty
twenty five. That reflects a new level of national interest,
and they're wisely building a strong coaching staff, adding former
catcher Astin Nola this offseason.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Finally, let's look at the two time defending champions, the
Los Angeles Dodgers. What's going on in LA post championship?
They never rest.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
They are as always relentlessly focused on maintaining championship level talent.
The first feel good story was resigning mc L Rojas
to a one year five point five million dollar deal.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
The World Series Hero, the thirty six.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Year old hero who hit that game tying homer in
Game seven against the Blue Jays. He confirmed twenty twenty
six will be his final season before moving into a
player development role. It's a great example of organizational loyalty, a.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Great story, but their real focus remains on acquiring elite pitching.
As evidenced by that blockbuster rumor involving the Tigers and
Trek Skuble.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
The proposed trade is stunning. The Dodger sending Tyler Glassnow,
Emmett Cheehan and zaiher Hope to the Tigers for the
backback cy young winner Terrek Skuble.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
They're willing to trade a starlight Glasnow to get him.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Because Scooble is considered a generational talent. A rotation featuring Yamamoto, Scooble, Otawni,
and Blake Snell would make them nearly unbeatable in a
seven game series.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
That is an unimaginable amount of pitching talent. It would
be the most dominant rotation we've seen in a generation.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
It would be, and it just shows the dodgers relentless
focus on the future. And despite that, we've also seen
outfielder Taskar Hernandez in involved in trade conversations.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
What's the rationale for trading a power bat like Hernandez.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Hernandez has hit twenty five homers in five straight seasons,
but his defense hasn't been fantastic and they have depth.
While the Dodgers currently view a trade as unlikely, the
fact that it's even being considered shows their willingness to
move core players to address other priorities like the bullpen.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
This high stakes activity, especially the massive payrolls from the
Dodgers in the Blue Jays, immediately brings up the broader
context of baseball's labor landscape and the intensifying debate over
payroll disparity.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
This is critical to the future of the sport. The
Dodgers are going into the offseason with an estimated three
hundred and thirty two million dollars payroll, while the Marlins
are at the bottom with fifty nine million dollars. That
massive discrepancy is what sparks these debates.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
And this is all happening as the MLB Players Association
is preparing for potentially contentious CBA negotiations next December. The
stakes are incredibly high.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
The core issue for the MLBPA remains the salary recap.
The Union has been firmly against any form of a
salary cap since the nineteen ninety four strike, believing it
would just diminish player earnings and allow owners to pay
guys below their true market value.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
And the reason this matters to you, the listener, is
that this disparity directly impacts competitive equity and could threaten
to stop the next baseball season dead in its tracks.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
And here is the great irony. Despite the massive spending
disparity and the lack of a hard cap, MLB is
often cited as having the most parity among major North
American sports.
Speaker 1 (36:31):
That's fascinating.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Over the last twenty five years, MLB has seen sixteen
different championship winners, which is more than the NHL, NFL,
and NBA, all of which have salary caps. The twenty
twenty five Mets, with the second highest payroll, missed the
playoffs entirely. It proves spending alone doesn't guarantee success.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
Shifting gears slightly, let's look at the strength of some
minor league systems, specifically the Detroit Tigers, as a counterpoint
to massive free agents spending.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
Baseball America recently updated its Tigers prospect list, confirming the
exceptional strength of their farm system, especially a double A.
The offensive trio of Max Clark, Kevin McGonagall and hufue
Brussagno have been the talk of minor league baseball.
Speaker 1 (37:12):
Now they have plenty of help on the way.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
They do, which is why they can pursue veteran anchors
like Suarez and Galon now to fill the gap until
those prospects arrive.
Speaker 1 (37:20):
Finally, we have a great human interest story that shows
the dedication of one of baseball's newest superstars, The Pirates.
Ace and NLC Young winner Paul skeens Skiings.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
Recently took part in his first USO tour, joined by
his girlfriend jymnast Livy Dunn. They visited sailors aboard the
us S, Gerald R. Ford and the USS Mayhan, meeting
with over thirteen hundred service members. This commitment to the
military community is deeply ingrained in him.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
He was the Pirate's nominee for the Clemente Award last season.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Right he was largely due to his pledge of one
hundred dollars per strikeout to the Gary Sonice Foundation. He
racked up two hundred and sixteen strikeouts, setting a new
franchise record, and surpassed his one hundred thousand dollars fundraising goal.
It's just a great example of an athlete using his
platform for significant community work.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Well, this offseason has flown out of the gate. We've
seen the Blue Jays aggressive pitching push with Cease and
the high upside gamble on Ponce, the blockbuster Semian Nemo
swap signal to shift in team philosophies, and the pitching
market remains intensely focused on the few high end names left.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
The central tension is definitely between those teams buying immediate
championship windows like the Dodgers targeting scooball at all costs,
and those attempting a painful but necessary reload through prospects
and cost control like the Cardinals and the Pirates. Everyone
is defining their future right now.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
So what does this all mean for the coming months
As we head toward the winter meetings and the new year.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
We need to focus back on the Texas Rangers. They
just made a major philosophical pivot. They traded away a
gold glove defender, Marcus Semion, to acquire the offensive skills
of Brendan Neimo, signaling they prioritize on base skills over
elite defense in that crucial middle infield old spot.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
And the ultimate question for the twenty twenty six season
is will.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
The decision to dent their defense in an effort to
truly remake their offense be the move that pays off
allowing their offense to carry them, or will the defensive
losses ultimately cost them enough runs to derail their next
championship run. That philosophical trade off between leather and lumber
in Texas is going to be the storyline to watch
next year.
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