December 16, 2025 • 38 mins
Mid-December 2025 and the MLB offseason isn’t settling down—it’s splitting in half. In this episode, we break down a market that feels like two different sports: the mega-spenders (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees) pushing financial limits, and the budget-conscious clubs (Guardians, Brewers, Royals) trying to win with timing, trades, and farm systems instead of brute-force payroll. We start with the number that defines the winter: the Dodgers resetting the closer market with Edwin Díaz (3 years, $69M) and using deferrals to keep the competitive balance tax hit “manageable”—while their total deferred obligations soar past $1 billion through 2047. From there, we pivot to the collateral damage in Queens: the Mets losing core pieces, replacing Díaz with Devin Williams, adding Jorge Polanco, and still staring at rotation and outfield holes that won’t be easy to patch. Across town, the Yankees are dealing with a looming pitching crisis, making their pursuit of Michael King feel less like a luxury and more like survival—while the entire hitter market waits on the final price signals around Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Bregman. We also hit the tactical end of free agency: Atlanta’s one-year, high-AAV reunion with Ha-seong Kim, Philadelphia’s defense-first gamble on Adolis García (and what luxury tax math does to that “$10M” price tag), and Seattle’s high-stakes trade dilemma between Ketel Marte’s upside and Brendan Donovan’s versatility. The episode widens to the rest of the league: Minnesota’s calculated bet on Josh Bell, Cleveland’s youth-first optimism (and what projections say), Kansas City’s commitment move with a major extension, and a pitching trade board headlined by the Skubal-vs.-Peralta debate. We then race toward the international deadline drama—Murakami, Okamoto, and Imai—and close with the big-picture questions: managerial pay gaps, Hall of Fame contradictions (Bonds/Clemens vs. Rose), and a potentially game-changing new path for Japanese talent aiming for MLB control through the draft.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in. It is mid December twenty twenty five, and
the dust from the winter meetings is still kind of settling.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
It is, but it hasn't really brought much clarity, has it.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
No, not at all. It feels like the MLB off
season market has just fractured into these two completely different realities.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
That's a perfect way to put it, a total fracture.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
On one hand, you've got these unprecedented financial commitments. We've
seen blockbusters signing some really painful losses for certain teams,
and now we're heading into this final stretch.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Yeah, where those key international deadlines are looming and teams
are just fighting against the calendar to get their rosters finalized.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
And you mentioned that fracture. On one side, you have
the mega markets.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
LA New York, Oh yeah, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Yankees.
They're just thrown around money with the sort of strategic recklessness.
It's designed to win right now and maybe forever. And
on the other side, well, that's where you have the
more cost conscious clubs, the Guardians, the Brewers, the Royals.
They're struggling to justify almost any big offensive upgrade.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
They seem to just prefer to stand pat and what
bet on their farm systems exactly.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
So the pressure right now isn't just about signing the talent.
It's all about timing. Especially with those Japanese posting deadlines,
they're about to force some hands.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Okay, let's unpack that financial arms race first, because there's
one number that came out of Los Angeles that truly
just it broke my brain.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
I think I know the one you're talking about.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
It changes the definition of long term commitment. We have
to start with the reliever market, which the Dodgers just
they completely reset it by signing Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
It was a monumental deal for a closer. It just
signals that the Dodgers are willing to spend everywhere, I mean,
even on positions that people usually see is really volatile.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So what are the top plane numbers?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Diaz got a three year contract worth sixty nine million dollars. Wow,
that sets a new average annual value an AAV record
for any non starting pitcher. And he's surpassing the record
that well, that he himself already held from his last
contract with the Mets.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
And this is where the contract structure gets really interesting
and frankly a little frightening. Diaz was already guaranteed thirty
eight million over the final two years with the Mets,
but he opted.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Out, which was a big gamble, a huge gamble.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
By testing the market and signing with LA he effectively
got himself an extra year and a massive thirty one
million dollars in additional guarantees. That's a remarkable move for
a closer.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
And crucially, the Dodgers use their favorite financial mechanism to
make it all work. Under the competitive.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Balance tax, the deferrals.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
The deferrals, They included four and a half million dollars
in deferred salary every single year. And this brings us
to that astonishing number you mentioned earlier. This is the
one that Diaz deal pushes the Dodgers' total deferred money
ODE to nine different players through the year twenty forty
seven passed the one billion dollar mark.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
After there a billion dollars with a B. That's not
a typo, right.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
No typo. We are talking about one point zero six
for five billion dollars ode in deferred payments stretching out
for the next twenty two years.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
So what does that deferred money actually do for the
team today? I mean, how does this help them, right.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Now, that's the genius of it. From their perspective. The
deferral lowers the immediate hit against the competitive balance tax threshold.
So when the League calculates the AAV for the tax,
they use the present day discounted value of those future payments.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Okay, So, just to be clear for everyone listening, even
though Diaz is technically owed twenty three million a year,
the League calculates a lower number for luxury tax purposes
because they're paying a chunk of that the four and
a half million years and years from now.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Precisely, it's an accounting maneuver, a brilliant one, really. It
lets them assemble all this superstar talent while on paper
minimizing the immediate CBT penalty.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
And that billion dollar figure includes some other huge names obviously.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Well, of course it's anchored by Shoheo Tani's unprecedented six
hundred and eighty million dollar deferral. Then you've got Mookie
Bets at one hundred and fifteen million, Blake Snell at
sixty six million, Freddie Freeman at fifty seven million.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
So when does Diaz actually see his deferred money.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
His thirteen and a half million will be paid out
in ten equal installments starting in twenty thirty six, twenty
thirty six, and it runs all the way through twenty
forty seven. The Dodgers are building a roster that literally
future generations of team owners will still be paying for.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Meanwhile, if you are a Mets fan, you're looking at
that news and just experiencing the definition of competitive pain.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh. Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
David Stearns came in promising discipline, but that discipline cost
them their cornerstone closer after they already lost their home
run king Pete Alonzo and traded their star outfielder Brandon Nimo.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
It has been an emotionally brutal off season for the Mets.
Just devastating, losing three core mainstays Nimo, Alonzo, and now Diez.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
To the rival two time defending champion Dodgers.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Exactly, it's catastrophic te morele for depth, for everything, and
that discipline Stern showed with Diaz was I think a
defining moment for his tenure.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
What was the Mets offer? How close were they?
Speaker 2 (05:09):
They offered three years and sixty six million, so pretty
close on the surface, but they deferred a staggering twenty
one million dollars over fifteen years.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
And Diaz's camp obviously balked at that. What was the
specific sticking point that lit the Dodgers sneak in.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
He was looking for a much shorter deferral period. The
ideal was five to seven years, and he wanted a
higher annual value after you accounted for the deferrals.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
And Stern's just wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Butch he wouldn't. He held firm on the team's new
financial structure. The priority for them is minimizing long term
debt and maximizing CBT flexibility. He chose financial discipline over
the immediate emotional need to keep a fan favorite, and
we lost him. He lost him to the team that
was willing to eat that shorter deferral.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So the immediate response from the Mets has been a pivot.
They've made two big signings, right.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
They replaced Dias with closer Devin Williams on a three year,
fifty one million dollar deal.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And they added veteran infielder Jorge.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Polanco two years, forty million for Polanco.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
So what's the analysis on those moves? Is it enough?
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Well, Williams immediately steps into the closer role. Stearns is
betting on elite quality over familiarity. Williams has performed at
a very, very high level.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
He has that incredible change up the airbender.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
The organization believes he can get back to his dominant
form and be one of the top relievers in baseball again.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
And Polanco, He's mostly a second baseman, but the Mets
need a first baseman Dyah now that Alonso was gone.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
The Polanco signing is the direct Alonzo replacement. He's a
veteran switch hitter and the plan is for him to
play primarily first base.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And DH so he provides some stability.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
He does professional at bats. But, and this is a
big bet. Even with these two signings, the Mets still
desperately need to address their starting rotation. It's thin and
their outfield depth is a problem, especially after treating Nimo.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Speaking of rotation holes, let's look at across town. The
Yankees are facing a pretty scary and immediate pitching crisis
to start the twenty twenty sixth season.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Crisis is the right word. Max Fried who they got
last year, is penciled in as their only healthy, established ace,
and behind him it is a land of enormous question marks.
Jarrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clark Schmidt are all expected
to miss the start of the season. They're all recovering
from various elbow surgeries.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So the depths just falls off a cliff completely.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
You're immediately looking at guys who are largely unproven, Cam Schlitzler,
Lewis Gill, Will Warren good Arms, but not who you
want filling out two thirds of your rotation.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Which makes their pursuit of former Yankee Michael King much
much more urgent than they might admit publicly.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Absolutely, King is projected for a significant contract, probably four years,
maybe eighty million dollars, and he's narrowed his search to
three Al East rivals.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
The connection to the East Coast is potent. He's a
Rhode Island native, went to Boston College, which obviously agellus
to the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
And for the Yankees, it's a reunion.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It is it's a reunion with a player they had
developed and then traded away, who has now become a
legitimate starter, you know, capable of logging one hundred and
eighty plus innings.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
But the Yankees have to be looking at the risk
profile here, especially with all their current.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Injuries, So risk is huge. You have to acknowledge it.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Explain that risk for us. Yeah, we know he had
that dominant tummy twenty four.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
He was cy young caliber in twenty four, a fantastic
two point nine to five ERA over almost one hundred
and seventy four innings. But in twenty twenty five, injuries
just crushed him, limited him to only fifteen starts, and
it all ended with a nerve issue in his shoulder,
and when he came back, performance just cratered. His final
five appearances were really rough, a six point one to
(08:44):
one er, his strikeout rates were way down.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So the risk is immense. Are you buying the twenty
twenty four ace or the guy who finished twenty twenty
five struggling with nerve issues.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
That's the eighty million dollar question. If the Yankees commit
that money, they are gambling entirely on the upside, and
it's a gamble driven by just sheer necessity, and.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
That kind of immediate need is just amplified by the
fact that the entire market seems anchored right now by
the few remaining big offensive free agents.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Right Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
The Yankees and Mets are both reportedly deep in the
mix for Tucker and Bellinger.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
And that's the decision matrix for the Yankees. It's why
this market is so tense. Do you go for a
high end starter, maybe Japanese ace tatsu Yaimi, or a
high end hitter like Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Bellinger's coming off a great year.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Arguably his best season since his twenty nineteen MVP campaign.
He gave them five point one wins above replacement. He
offers elite speed, Gold Glove caliber defense in the outfield
and neflexville and the flexibility to play first base if
Ben Rice folters. He just checks so many boxes.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
And for the Mets, Bellinger is an even more natural fit,
isn't a Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Absolutely? The Mets desperately need an outfielder, and Bellinger's ability
to just seamlessly slide over to first base or DH
makes him the perfect replacement bat for Pee Alonzo. Reports
are saying that the Mets are very in on Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
So they're pivoting hard to replace the production from Alonzo
and Nimo aggressively.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Meanwhile, Tucker, who's the youngest, and you could argue has
the highest upside of all of them. He's just waiting
for one of these teams to set the price ceiling
for the rest of the market.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Okay, moving beyond the two behemoths spending billions, let's turn
our attention to the teams that are focusing on more tactical,
short term.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Fixes right in the trade and shorter term free agent markets.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
And we saw two really intriguing outfield signings that act
as perfect case studies in modern free agency, hassing Kim
going back to Atlanta and Adulas Garcia heading Philadelphia.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
The braves re signing of Hassan Kim was just a
clinic in how to manage Scott Boris and avoid a
long term anchor.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So Kim declined his sixteen million dollar player option right.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
He was hoping for a big, multi year deal on
what everyone saw as a pretty shallow shortstop market.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
But the Braves were aggressive.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
They were They successfully maneuvered to bring him back on
a high aav one year contract twenty million dollars, so
they paid a four million dollar premium over his option,
but they avoided that long term commitment he was looking.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
For, and for the Braves, what kind of performance upgrade
does Kim represent, I mean, how bad were they at
shortstop in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
It's a massive, massive, and necessary upgrade the Braves suffered
through Nick Allen at shortstop in twenty twenty five. He
put up an unplayable fifty three ops plus.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Kim, could you just quickly define ops plus for our
listeners who might not track that specific metric.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Of course, ops plus is just a measure of offensive
performance that's adjusted for the ballparky play in one hundred
is league average.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
So Nick Allen's fifty three ops plus means he was
what almost half as good as an average.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Hitter, exactly offensively half as good as the average league shortstop. Kim,
even in his injury plague twenty twenty five, is a
vastly superior defensive shortstop who was averaging nearly four wins
above replacement per season before that, and.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
This lets Mauricio dubond and slide back into that super
utility role he's best at. Precisely so. The broader implication
here is this continuation of the Boras pivot accepting these
high AAV short term deals when the nine figure long
term contracts just don't show.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Up exactly we saw it with Alonso and Bregman too.
The high aav short term contract has become the default
compromise for his clients when the market doesn't produce that
mega deal they expected.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
It gives the player a chance to re enter the
market faster, and it.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Gives the club flexibility. It changes the risk profile for
everyone involved.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Then you have the Phillies signing a doles Garcia one year,
ten million dollars to play right field. This seems less
about offense and almost entirely about defense.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
It's paving the way for Nick Cassianas's exit.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Right a trade to release seems inevitable now.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
It is purely a defensive calculation, but it's one that
results in a huge improvement and run prevention for them.
Garcia posted an elite plus sixteen defensive run saved or
DRS in twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
Twenty five, and Casianos.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
For contact, Castianas posted a terrible minus eleven drs.
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Wow, that's the twenty seven run swing.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
It's a gurgantuan shift in run prevention. Castianas, who's owed
twenty million in twenty twenty six, is now almost certainly
going to be traded or released. He's clearly a DH
only player at this.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Point, But the financial implications of Garcia as ten million
dollar deal tell a much different story than just that
sticker price.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Oh this is where the CBT rules become absolutely critical.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Because the Phillies are deep into the luxury.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Tax, very deep. They fall into the third tier of penalties,
and they're nearing the fourth, So they will pay a
ninety five percent tax on Garcia's annual value.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Can you walk us through that specific tax calculation quickly?
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Certainly so. Once a team crosses that initial CBT threshold,
they pay increasing penalty percentages on every single dollar they
spend above that line.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
And the Phillies are so far over that line.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
That nearly every dollar they spend on a player has
to be matched by ninety five cents paid to the
league as a penalty, which means that ten million dollar
contract for Garcia actually cost the Phillies roughly nineteen and
a half million dollars overall.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Wow, if they're paying nineteen and a half million for
a player whose ops was sub point seven zero zero
zero zeros over the past two seasons, aren't they letting
defensive desperation just override sound judgment?
Speaker 2 (14:18):
That's a very valid criticism. It's a very costly one
year gamble. They're hoping to catch his twenty twenty three
World Series form rather than his recent downturn where his
chase rate just spite.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
So they're betting on their hitting coach, Kevin Long heavily.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
They're betting he can fix the swing and misissues. But
you know, even if the offense stays below average, they've
secured the elite defensive floor they so desperately needed in
right field.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Let's pivot to the trade market, which is where a
lot of these mid market teams are trying to find
their needle movers. The Seattle Mariners are looking for a
veteran infielder after losing Jorge Polanco, and the debate seems
to center around Kill Marte the d Backs and Brendan
Donovan of the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
This is a classic high rate, high reward decision for
Seattle's front office. It's the definition of go big or
go home.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
And you tell Marte is the high end target.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
He is switch hitter fresh off two silver sluggers. The
problem is leverage. The d Backs have massive leverage right now,
but that leverage completely vanishes in early twenty twenty six, because.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
That's when he gets his ten and five rights. For
those unfamiliar, what exactly are ten and five rights and
why do they impact the trade market so much so?
Speaker 2 (15:26):
A player gets ten and five rights when they have
ten years of major league service time and have spent
at least five consecutive years with their current team, and.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
That gives them a full no trade.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Class exactly, full veto power over any trade. The d
bacs know that if they wait until early twenty twenty six,
Marte can block any deal and they lose all their
trade leverage. This offseason is Arizona's last best chance to
maximize his value, so.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Teams like the Mariners, Red Sox, Blue Jays are all interesting.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
It's deeply interested.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
So if they can't get Marte, the Mariners are also
looking at Brendan Donovan, who is the cheaper, more versatile option,
but he still comes with a hefty prospect cost.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Donovan is younger and offers tremendous positional flexibility. I mean,
he can genuinely play everywhere in the infield and even
the corners.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
Of the outfield, and he's a consistent hitter.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Incredibly consistent. His WRC plus has been between one hundred
and fifteen and one to twenty seven for the last
four years. But the Cardinals are being aggressive. They're reportedly
asking for multiple top Seattle.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Prospects, specifically Lazara Montes and the switch pitcher Jerangelo Sinje.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
That's the rumor.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Yeah, I have to challenge this premise, though. If the
Cardinals are demanding two top prospects for a guy like Donovan,
does that acquisition really move the needle enough for Seattle
to justify gutting their farm system.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
That is the exact internal conflict happening in the Mariner's
front office right now. The sentiment is that Donovan doesn't
provide enough of an offensive upgrade over internal options like
Cole Young or Ben Williamson to justify trading top prospects.
Speaker 1 (16:57):
Because they're projected to be better defensively right.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
They argue that Young and Williamson are projected to out
defend him and potentially approximate his offensive production within a year.
Trading for Donovan only makes sense if they absolutely cannot
get Marte and feel desperate, or if the Cardinals lower
their asking price a lot.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
We've talked a lot about the big spenders, but what
about the Al Central teams, they seem to be sticking
to tighter budgets. The Twins, fresh off a down season,
just signed Josh Bell.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
Minnesota made a very strategic, targeted move there. Their biggest
offensive problem last season was a lack of patience and
way too many strikeouts.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
They were seventeenth in the league.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
I think yeah, a twenty two point six percent strikeout rate.
So Josh Bell, signed to a one year, seven million
dollar deal, directly addresses that need for contact quality. He
brings a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate,
which minimizes that feast or famine approach they've often had.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
Is this a bet on the player as a whole
or on a specific version of him?
Speaker 2 (17:54):
They're specifically betting on the second half Josh Bell from
twenty twenty five, after he made a miss season swing
change from the left side, he slashed an impressive point
two seven to two point three five seven point five zero.
Reports were his bat speed noticeably increased.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
I calculated short term.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Bet exactly on one specific mechanical adjustment.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Now you contrast that with the Guardians, who were basically
standing pat even after tying for last in the majors
in ninetieth percentile exitvelocity last year.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
That means when they hit the ball hard, they just
weren't hitting it hard enough to do real damage.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
And their team WRC plus was what.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Eighty six a pitofull eighty six, fourteen percent worse than
league average offensively. But the front office is preaching institutional patients.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
Antonetti has been pretty clear about it.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
He has stating that bringing an outside veteran bats might
take away opportunities from their young hitters, and that's a
risk they are not willing to take.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
But is there any justification for that optimism outside of
just organizational loyalty. What did the projection say for their
twenty twenty six lineup?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
This is where the data gets really interesting. The computer
systems are surprisingly optimistic. If you look at Steamer projections
for the twenty twenty six Guardians lineup with guys like
Stephen Kwan, Chase de Laughter, Kyle Manzardo, the average projected
WRC plus jumps dramatically to one oh six.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Point eight, as a phenomenal jump over twenty points better
than last year. Why the massive.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Projected leap, Well, the projection models anticipate that these young hitters,
especially the ones who showed flashes but maybe struggled with
consistency or injury last year, will realize their potential as they.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Mature, and a gain of twenty plus points would make
them an immediate thread in the Al Central.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
If they stay healthy and avoid that sophomore slump.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Now, if the Guardians do decide to move off that
youth trust model, the preferred trade target is definitely Wilson Contraras.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Who can split time at first and catcher.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
And he's an imposing bat. He put up a one
twenty four WRC plus last year and he crushes left
handed pitching.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
That raises a good question about resource allocation, especially in
that division. You see the Royals showing commitment by signing
Makel Garcia to that big extension.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Five years, fifty seven and a half million, locking up
their gold glove third baseman who significantly improved his plate
discipline last year.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
So the Royals are trying to create some continuity.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
And that Arcia extension was predicated entirely on complex player metrics.
His improved discipline and refined swing let him do damage
on more pitches. He went from a replacement level bat
to an all star caliber performer almost overnight.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
They're betting that internal data is worth a huge long
term commitment.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
They are.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
But now let's look at the trade block, because this
is where the premium starting pitching is hiding, and it
presents a huge dilemma for teams like the Mets, the Giants,
and the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
The pitching trade market is fascinating. It features two of
the absolute best starters in baseball, but with completely different
levels of control and cost, Freddie Peralta and Trek Scuball.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Let's start with Scooball. He's the perceived ace of the market.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
You could argue he's one of the two best pitchers
in baseball right now, but he's only one one year
away from free agency, which just inflates his price tag astronomically.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
So you're basically renting him for one season unless.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
You immediately sign him to a mega extension. The price
would be a massive haul of elite prospects, the kind
of prospects the Mets have been really hesitant to part with.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
And conversely, you have Freddy Peralta, who's being actively shopped
by the Brewers. Yeah, what's the appeal there?
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Peralta is on the block because the Brewers are operating
under tighter budget constraints, and they have outfield depth issues
they need to solve via trade, the appeals the contract.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
How much is he owed?
Speaker 2 (21:34):
He's only owed eight million dollars in twenty twenty six,
So you're getting a frontline starter for pennies on the
dollar compared to free agency. This is why teams like
the Giants and Mets are so interested.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Premium performance with extreme cost control for one year.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Exactly. It gives you a flexibility. The Scoobale deal just
does not offer.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Let's zoom in on the Al East again, specifically the
Red Sox, who are trying to acquire a starter via trade,
and there are rumors about a swap involving Jaron Duran
and the Royals Lefty Cole Reagan's.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
The Red Sox are desperate to maximize their pitching depth,
which is already pretty strong after signing Sonny Gray and
Johanno Viedo. They see Duran, who's high value but kind
of redundant outfielder for them, as a way to get
a high end starter.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Even if it makes their offense worse, even if.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
It exacerbates their offensive needs. And yes, the rumored asking
price from the Royals is Reagan's.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Tell us about Reagan's profile, why is he so coveted
by a team that already has some good pitching.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
He is exactly the type of gigantic, high velocity lefty
that modern analytically minded front offices just drool over. His
fastball averages around ninety five, but it touches ninety nine,
and he has that change up, a devastating changeup that
generates swinging strikes almost thirty percent of the time against
right handed hitters. That is elite. It puts him in
(22:52):
the conversation with the game's best, and critically, he's under
team control for three more seasons for cheap, for an
estimated twelve million total across twenty twenty six and twenty
twenty seven, So.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
The Royals see him as a potential Game one postseason
starter who they don't have to pay for three more years,
which explains why they don't want to move him for
a position player exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Dealing Duran for Reagan's would be a massive coup for
the Red Sox pitching staff, but like you said, it
deepens their offensive need, especially since they already missed out
on guys like Alonzo and Schwarber.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
So it all circles back to the pending decisions on
the Japanese hitters like Kazuoma Okamoto, their continued pursuit of
Michael King. It's all connected back to Schoobel and the Tigers.
Detroit has been giving off some really conflicting signals about
what they plan to do with their ace.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
The signals were initially very very confusing. On one hand,
the GM was talking openly about how top prospects need
to play significant roles in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
Which sounds like a rebuild.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
It sounded like a preparatory move for a possible mid
season rebuild centered around trading Scooball. But then on the
other hand, they went out and signed veteran closer Kenley
Jansen to a one year.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Deal, and the Jansen signing now seems to be the
defining signal of their twenty twenty six intentions.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
It is a loud, unequivocal signal that they intend to
compete right now. Jansen is thirty eight years old, he
had twenty nine saves in a two point five to
nine ERA last year, and.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
He's close to a huge milestone.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Just two saves. Shy of passing Lee Smith for third
on the all time saves list. He is fiercely protecting
his Hall of Fame resume and would only sign somewhere
where he is the unquestioned closer and where the team
intends to genuinely contend.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
So by signing Jansen, Detroit is signaling their keeping Scoobule
and going for the ale Central crown.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
It strongly suggests it, and this move likely torpedoes the
Dodgers and Mets dreams of acquiring Schooble this winter.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Well, the Tigers are solidifying their core. Let's briefly look
at Oakland situation. They acquired JG. Blopez earlier this offseason.
What was his twenty twenty five like and what's his
status for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Lopez was acquired from the Rays back in December twenty
twenty four. He showed some flashes of real potential in
twenty twenty five, a seven to seven record, four point
eight eight ERA, struck out one hundred and thirteen batters
in about ninety two innings.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
He had that great start in August he did.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
He tossed seven and two third shutout innings with ten strikeouts,
But his season ended abruptly due to a left elbow
flexer strain late that month. He's a massive potential contributor
if he's healthy, but that elbow strain makes his health
the major question mark heading into spring training.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Let's pivot to the international market, which has several hard
deadlines coming up fast. We're talking about two major Japanese hitters,
Munataka Morikami and Kazuma Okamoto, and the top pitcher Tatsimi.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
The drama is peaking because the deadlines are right before
or just after the new year. Munataka Maakami's posting window
closes on December twenty second.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
He has lethal power.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Lethal power. He averaged over thirty three home runs a
year in Japan, but there are significant questions about his
high strikeout rates and his defense at third base. Most
clubs project him as a first baseman in MLB, and.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
The other hitter, Okamoto.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Kazuma Okamoto has until January fourth. He is generally considered
the more complete hitter than Wakami, better contact, better defense,
though his fit at third is also.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Debated, and he's already been linked to the Red Sox Yes.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Who could use his right handed power to target the
Green Monster and offset any lost offense from potential.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Trades, and the pitcher Imai, who is a major target
for the Yankees and Mets.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Pat Suyemi's window closes January second. He's the pitching star
who put up a phenomenal one point nine to ERA
with one hundred and seventy eight strikeouts in the NPB
and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
The Yankees have to be all over him.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Given their starting pitching injuries. They're reportedly among the expected suitors.
They have the budget for the nine figure deal he's
expected to command. The Mets are interested too, although Stearns
is famously reluctant to give long term deals to pitchers
in their late twenties or thirties.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Let's pivot to management and organizational challenges. We need to
talk about the Los Angeles Angels, who seem to have
lost all the optimism they had just a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Jos off season has been an organizational free fall.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
They just hired a new manager with a rather unusual resume.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
They hired Maui native Kurt Suzuki as manager despite him
having literally no professional or college managerial experience. His qualifications
rest solely on his sixteen years as a big league catcher.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Which requires a high baseball likeq it.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Does, and his three years as a front office consultant.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
But he was given a one year contract. What is
that signal? Is that commitment or is that the Angels
hedging their bets?
Speaker 2 (27:31):
It absolutely signals uncertainty and a lack of organizational stability.
Suzuki himself said he isn't concerned about the short deal,
but this hiring is directly connected to the larger chaos.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
GM perrimanation has been pretty quiet.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
He's only acquired von Grissom, he failed to keep Kenley Jansen,
and the front office is being questioned on whether their
promise of increased parroll flexibility was just you know, smoke
and mirrors.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
So signing Suzuki is a hail Mary for stability.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
It feels like it. The hope is that a guy
known for his or with pitching staffs might stabilize the
team while they still desperately pursue star free agents like
Tucker Bellinger or pitcher like Zach Gallon.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Let's talk about the Cincinnati Reds. They are facing a
serious identity crisis after their entire hitting philosophy just fell
completely flat last season.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
The twenty twenty five, Reds focused on hitting line drives
and prioritizing contact, often at the purposeful expense of true power.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
Shortened swings, minimize strikeouts, put the ball in play.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
The philosophy was simple, but the results were disastrous. The
team tied for last in the Majors with the Guardians,
with a ninetieth percentile exit velocity of just one hundred
and three point seven miles per hour.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
What does that number one or three point seven mean
in practical terms for the Reds.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
It means that even when their hitters did connect well,
they weren't hitting the ball hard enough to turn fly
balls into home runs or hardline drives into doubles. They
were sacrificing slugging for singles.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
And that lack of gap power is alarming for a
team with playoff assetions.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Especially with a guy like Ellie de la Cruz who
can knock the snot out of the ball, but they
lacked that consistent threat to clear the fences.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
Now they're facing a make or break twenty twenty six
for a couple of talented but inconsistent players who have
to prove that philosophical failure wasn't their fault.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
Two names really stand out, starting with right hander Lion Richardson.
He's a former second round pick and he is now
out of options.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
And for those who don't track the option system, why
is being out of options such a critical deadline for
a player like him?
Speaker 2 (29:29):
It means he can no longer be sent down to
the minor leagues without first clearing waivers. So he absolutely
must prove his value as an MLB player right now
or the Reds risk losing him for nothing to another team.
Speaker 1 (29:41):
And he was so inconsistent last year.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
He flashed electric stuff early in twenty twenty five with
a one point eighty five ERA over about twenty four innings,
but then he just completely fell apart gave up fourteen
earned runs over his final thirteen innings. The Reds need
him to harness that potential.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
On the offensive side. We have out Fielderrhese Hinz.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Heines still has one option left, but he's twenty six.
The power prospect needs to make his mark immediately. He's
known for prodigious power and speed.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
He had that absurd debut in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Four, Yeah six games, five homers, n L Player of
the Week. Crucially in Triple A and twenty twenty five,
he cut his strikeout rates significantly while maintaining power. Hit
twenty four homers and swiped twenty one bags.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
So the Reds are banking on that maturity translating to
the majors.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
They need it to. They need him to provide that
ideal power thread for the outfield.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Shifting over to the NL East, we need to discuss
a major performance decline in Atlanta Ozzi Albi's. The picture
of his twenty twenty five season is pretty bleak.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
It was a deeply disappointing year for Albe's, especially given
the offensive expectations for him as a key fixture in
that lineup. He posted a career worst eighty seven WRC
plus and got only one point three f war over
a heavy six hundred and sixty seven played appearances.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
So he took way more plate appearances to produce the
same value as the year.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Before, nearly two hundred fifty more.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
What went wrong with his swing?
Speaker 2 (31:02):
The key problem was a change in approach that seemed
to just rob him of his effectiveness. He posted a
career low barrel rate and had diminished exit velocity compared
to previous years.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
The Braves wanted him to walk more.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
They did, and he did for the first time since
his rookie season, but it came at the cost of
severely compromised contact quality and a noticeably slower swing. His
expected weighted on base average against fastballs was the second
worst of his career.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
But wasn't his historical strength hitting left handed pitching.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Yes, and that failed him completely. Perhaps the biggest issue
was his failure to crush left handed pitching, which has
historically been his bread and butter, and.
Speaker 1 (31:39):
When you combine those offensive issues with the defensive and
speed decline, it.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Created real internal questions about whether exercising his seven million
dollar club option for twenty twenty six was even worthwhile.
They ultimately did, but it was a conversation.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
That's a huge commitment to a player who seems to
be physically declining too. The note on his sprint speed.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
It's noticeable on the field, his arm strength continued to
be terrible, resulting in his third consecutive below average defensive
year at second and Yeah, his sprint speed has suffered
a pretty steep decline from the eighty ninth percentile when
he came up to the forty fourth percentile.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Now that's a crucial metric for a second baseman who
relies on range.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
A huge one. Atlanta is betting heavily on a mechanical
correction this winter.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Let's transition to a broader cultural discussion how baseball values
the people running the game and how it decides who
gets memorialized forever. Starting with manager compensation, which is still
such an anomaly in professional sports.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Managerial salaries remain a fascinating imbalance. The role has evolved
so much, it's more demanding, it's intertwined with complex metrics
and front office strategy.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
And yet the pay legs way behind the NBA.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
And NFL significantly. For example, the highest manager salary at
MLB belongs to the Dodgers Dave Roberts at eight point
one million a year. That is less than half of
what the top coaches in the other leagues make.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
And this issue is highlighted perfectly by the situation in
Milwaukee with Pat Murphy.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
Murphy won the NL Manager of the Year in back
to back seasons, bringing the Brewers into contention despite a
really tight payroll. His contract is set to expire after
the twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
Season, which puts the Brewers in the exact same position
they were in when they lost Craig Council of the.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Cups for a reported forty million over five years, which
gave Counsel the second highest managerial salary in the game.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
So if Murphy continues to succeed, the Brewers will again
face losing elite leadership purely because they can't afford to
compete with the massive paydays from large markets.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Exactly. Murphy says he loves Milwaukee and wants to stay,
but this systemic salary cap discrepancy puts small market teams
at a constant disadvantage when trying to retain elite leadership.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
So even the most successful analytically driven managers are just undervalued.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
Compared to the demands of the job today. Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Finally, we have to talk about the Hall of Fame's
classic Eerk Commits vote last week, a massive rejection of
two of the greatest players of their generation, Barry Bonds
and Roger Clemens.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
What's so fascinating here is the context that Commissioner Manford provides,
which frames this whole debate around integrity. The committee rejected
both Bonds and Clemens.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
They got fewer than the five votes needed for reconsideration.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
Right, despite the prevailing sentiment that maybe enough time has
passed since the ped scandal, and this decision stands in
stark contrast to Manfred's highly controversial move to make Pete
Rose eligible for Hall of Fame consideration in twenty twenty seven,
and the.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
Logic Manfred used for Rose, who was banned for life
for betting on games, was purely based on the fact
that he died in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Yes, Manfred reasoned that since Rose died, he quote no
longer posed any threat to the integrity of the sport
by betting on games.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
That logic created a huge cultural debate.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It did, and the committee's rejection of Bonds and Clemens
in the face of this capitulation on Rose was viewed
by some as a principled stand against this creeping nihilism
that suggests rules and standards no longer matter once the
player is retired or deceased.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
And Jeff Kent was the sole player elected, he was
a teammate of both Bonds and Clements.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
The election of Kent simply fueled the debate that the
Hall of Fame is incomplete or less legitimate as long
as Bonds and Clemens remain on the outside. It's just
a constant, painful reminder of that era of.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Suspicion, and Manfred is continuing to apply that same logic
to other players he is.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
He's also returning shoeless Joe Jackson, banned since nineteen twenty,
to the ballot, based on the same reasoning.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
So we've covered the biggest swings of the offseason, the
billion dollars in deferred money from the Dodgers, the mets
painful pivot, the Red Sox and Yankees scrambling for rotation.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Help right, and we are heading toward those critical Japanese
market deadlines.
Speaker 1 (35:48):
The core tension is still that massive spending disparity exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
You have the Dodgers' financial depth contrasted with teams like
the Brewers who are actively shopping their top affordable starter,
Freddy Pearl or the Cardinals demanding top prospects for Brendan Donovan,
and the free agent market still anchors on those big
three bats Tucker, Bellinger, and Bregman, who are all just
waiting for someone to set the price. The Red Sox
(36:13):
and Yankees, despite their different realities, are still trying to
figure out their ultimate offensive and pitching puzzles before spring training.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
What's fascinating here is just the sheer volume of player
movement required to assemble a roster today.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Oh, the twenty twenty five season showed how unstable rosters
have become. We saw incredible churn. The Baltimore Orioles used
seventy different players in twenty twenty five, tying a major
league record set by the twenty twenty four Marlins. That
is an astonishing reliance on deep organizational depth and constant
waiver claims just to field a team for one hundred
and sixty two games.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
Which emphasizes why organizations have to rely so heavily on
metrics and continuity.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
Like the Royal showed with Makel Garcia, his five year
extension was entirely predicated on his data driven improvement.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
It shows that organizational belief in data can lead to
massive long term commitments. But looking ahead to the future
talent pipeline, if these spending pressures and commitments continue to rise,
how might international players adapt to get more control over
their careers.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
That raises a really important question about control versus organizational power,
and we are seeing a potential new trend emerging from
Japan Japanese college ace Gnas Soto, who throws a high
nineties fastball and a low nineties splitter, is planning to
transfer to a US school in February to become eligible
for the twenty twenty seven MLB draft.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
That is highly unusual. Why would a top Japanese talent
bypass the entire established posting system.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
This is a deliberate atypical path that bypasses the mpb's
posting system, which ties a player to their Japanese club
and really limits their negotiating leverage when they finally jump
to MLB.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
So by going the draft route.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
He'll enter MLB as a traditional amateur prospect. It grants
him full control over his negotiating rights and he avoids
the posting fee entirely. Wow.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
And if Sado, who already had experienced dominating top NCAA hitters,
is successful with this, we might see more international stars
seeking control over their own careers. By choosing the draft
route rather than the traditional posting system. It could fundamentally
shift the power dynamic in the global talent pipeline.
Welcome in. It is mid December twenty twenty five, and
the dust from the winter meetings is still kind of settling.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
It is, but it hasn't really brought much clarity, has it.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
No, not at all. It feels like the MLB off
season market has just fractured into these two completely different realities.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
That's a perfect way to put it, a total fracture.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
On one hand, you've got these unprecedented financial commitments. We've
seen blockbusters signing some really painful losses for certain teams,
and now we're heading into this final stretch.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Yeah, where those key international deadlines are looming and teams
are just fighting against the calendar to get their rosters finalized.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
And you mentioned that fracture. On one side, you have
the mega markets.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
LA New York, Oh yeah, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Yankees.
They're just thrown around money with the sort of strategic recklessness.
It's designed to win right now and maybe forever. And
on the other side, well, that's where you have the
more cost conscious clubs, the Guardians, the Brewers, the Royals.
They're struggling to justify almost any big offensive upgrade.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
They seem to just prefer to stand pat and what
bet on their farm systems exactly.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
So the pressure right now isn't just about signing the talent.
It's all about timing. Especially with those Japanese posting deadlines,
they're about to force some hands.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Okay, let's unpack that financial arms race first, because there's
one number that came out of Los Angeles that truly
just it broke my brain.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
I think I know the one you're talking about.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
It changes the definition of long term commitment. We have
to start with the reliever market, which the Dodgers just
they completely reset it by signing Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
It was a monumental deal for a closer. It just
signals that the Dodgers are willing to spend everywhere, I mean,
even on positions that people usually see is really volatile.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So what are the top plane numbers?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Diaz got a three year contract worth sixty nine million dollars. Wow,
that sets a new average annual value an AAV record
for any non starting pitcher. And he's surpassing the record
that well, that he himself already held from his last
contract with the Mets.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
And this is where the contract structure gets really interesting
and frankly a little frightening. Diaz was already guaranteed thirty
eight million over the final two years with the Mets,
but he opted.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Out, which was a big gamble, a huge gamble.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
By testing the market and signing with LA he effectively
got himself an extra year and a massive thirty one
million dollars in additional guarantees. That's a remarkable move for
a closer.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
And crucially, the Dodgers use their favorite financial mechanism to
make it all work. Under the competitive.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Balance tax, the deferrals.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
The deferrals, They included four and a half million dollars
in deferred salary every single year. And this brings us
to that astonishing number you mentioned earlier. This is the
one that Diaz deal pushes the Dodgers' total deferred money
ODE to nine different players through the year twenty forty
seven passed the one billion dollar mark.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
After there a billion dollars with a B. That's not
a typo, right.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
No typo. We are talking about one point zero six
for five billion dollars ode in deferred payments stretching out
for the next twenty two years.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
So what does that deferred money actually do for the
team today? I mean, how does this help them, right.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Now, that's the genius of it. From their perspective. The
deferral lowers the immediate hit against the competitive balance tax threshold.
So when the League calculates the AAV for the tax,
they use the present day discounted value of those future payments.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Okay, So, just to be clear for everyone listening, even
though Diaz is technically owed twenty three million a year,
the League calculates a lower number for luxury tax purposes
because they're paying a chunk of that the four and
a half million years and years from now.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Precisely, it's an accounting maneuver, a brilliant one, really. It
lets them assemble all this superstar talent while on paper
minimizing the immediate CBT penalty.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
And that billion dollar figure includes some other huge names obviously.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Well, of course it's anchored by Shoheo Tani's unprecedented six
hundred and eighty million dollar deferral. Then you've got Mookie
Bets at one hundred and fifteen million, Blake Snell at
sixty six million, Freddie Freeman at fifty seven million.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
So when does Diaz actually see his deferred money.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
His thirteen and a half million will be paid out
in ten equal installments starting in twenty thirty six, twenty
thirty six, and it runs all the way through twenty
forty seven. The Dodgers are building a roster that literally
future generations of team owners will still be paying for.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Meanwhile, if you are a Mets fan, you're looking at
that news and just experiencing the definition of competitive pain.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh. Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
David Stearns came in promising discipline, but that discipline cost
them their cornerstone closer after they already lost their home
run king Pete Alonzo and traded their star outfielder Brandon Nimo.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
It has been an emotionally brutal off season for the Mets.
Just devastating, losing three core mainstays Nimo, Alonzo, and now Diez.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
To the rival two time defending champion Dodgers.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Exactly, it's catastrophic te morele for depth, for everything, and
that discipline Stern showed with Diaz was I think a
defining moment for his tenure.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
What was the Mets offer? How close were they?
Speaker 2 (05:09):
They offered three years and sixty six million, so pretty
close on the surface, but they deferred a staggering twenty
one million dollars over fifteen years.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
And Diaz's camp obviously balked at that. What was the
specific sticking point that lit the Dodgers sneak in.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
He was looking for a much shorter deferral period. The
ideal was five to seven years, and he wanted a
higher annual value after you accounted for the deferrals.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
And Stern's just wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Butch he wouldn't. He held firm on the team's new
financial structure. The priority for them is minimizing long term
debt and maximizing CBT flexibility. He chose financial discipline over
the immediate emotional need to keep a fan favorite, and
we lost him. He lost him to the team that
was willing to eat that shorter deferral.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So the immediate response from the Mets has been a pivot.
They've made two big signings, right.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
They replaced Dias with closer Devin Williams on a three year,
fifty one million dollar deal.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And they added veteran infielder Jorge.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Polanco two years, forty million for Polanco.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
So what's the analysis on those moves? Is it enough?
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Well, Williams immediately steps into the closer role. Stearns is
betting on elite quality over familiarity. Williams has performed at
a very, very high level.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
He has that incredible change up the airbender.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
The organization believes he can get back to his dominant
form and be one of the top relievers in baseball again.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
And Polanco, He's mostly a second baseman, but the Mets
need a first baseman Dyah now that Alonso was gone.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
The Polanco signing is the direct Alonzo replacement. He's a
veteran switch hitter and the plan is for him to
play primarily first base.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And DH so he provides some stability.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
He does professional at bats. But, and this is a
big bet. Even with these two signings, the Mets still
desperately need to address their starting rotation. It's thin and
their outfield depth is a problem, especially after treating Nimo.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Speaking of rotation holes, let's look at across town. The
Yankees are facing a pretty scary and immediate pitching crisis
to start the twenty twenty sixth season.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Crisis is the right word. Max Fried who they got
last year, is penciled in as their only healthy, established ace,
and behind him it is a land of enormous question marks.
Jarrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clark Schmidt are all expected
to miss the start of the season. They're all recovering
from various elbow surgeries.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So the depths just falls off a cliff completely.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
You're immediately looking at guys who are largely unproven, Cam Schlitzler,
Lewis Gill, Will Warren good Arms, but not who you
want filling out two thirds of your rotation.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Which makes their pursuit of former Yankee Michael King much
much more urgent than they might admit publicly.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Absolutely, King is projected for a significant contract, probably four years,
maybe eighty million dollars, and he's narrowed his search to
three Al East rivals.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
The connection to the East Coast is potent. He's a
Rhode Island native, went to Boston College, which obviously agellus
to the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
And for the Yankees, it's a reunion.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It is it's a reunion with a player they had
developed and then traded away, who has now become a
legitimate starter, you know, capable of logging one hundred and
eighty plus innings.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
But the Yankees have to be looking at the risk
profile here, especially with all their current.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Injuries, So risk is huge. You have to acknowledge it.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Explain that risk for us. Yeah, we know he had
that dominant tummy twenty four.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
He was cy young caliber in twenty four, a fantastic
two point nine to five ERA over almost one hundred
and seventy four innings. But in twenty twenty five, injuries
just crushed him, limited him to only fifteen starts, and
it all ended with a nerve issue in his shoulder,
and when he came back, performance just cratered. His final
five appearances were really rough, a six point one to
(08:44):
one er, his strikeout rates were way down.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So the risk is immense. Are you buying the twenty
twenty four ace or the guy who finished twenty twenty
five struggling with nerve issues.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
That's the eighty million dollar question. If the Yankees commit
that money, they are gambling entirely on the upside, and
it's a gamble driven by just sheer necessity, and.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
That kind of immediate need is just amplified by the
fact that the entire market seems anchored right now by
the few remaining big offensive free agents.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Right Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
The Yankees and Mets are both reportedly deep in the
mix for Tucker and Bellinger.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
And that's the decision matrix for the Yankees. It's why
this market is so tense. Do you go for a
high end starter, maybe Japanese ace tatsu Yaimi, or a
high end hitter like Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Bellinger's coming off a great year.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Arguably his best season since his twenty nineteen MVP campaign.
He gave them five point one wins above replacement. He
offers elite speed, Gold Glove caliber defense in the outfield
and neflexville and the flexibility to play first base if
Ben Rice folters. He just checks so many boxes.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
And for the Mets, Bellinger is an even more natural fit,
isn't a Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Absolutely? The Mets desperately need an outfielder, and Bellinger's ability
to just seamlessly slide over to first base or DH
makes him the perfect replacement bat for Pee Alonzo. Reports
are saying that the Mets are very in on Bellinger.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
So they're pivoting hard to replace the production from Alonzo
and Nimo aggressively.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Meanwhile, Tucker, who's the youngest, and you could argue has
the highest upside of all of them. He's just waiting
for one of these teams to set the price ceiling
for the rest of the market.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Okay, moving beyond the two behemoths spending billions, let's turn
our attention to the teams that are focusing on more tactical,
short term.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Fixes right in the trade and shorter term free agent markets.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
And we saw two really intriguing outfield signings that act
as perfect case studies in modern free agency, hassing Kim
going back to Atlanta and Adulas Garcia heading Philadelphia.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
The braves re signing of Hassan Kim was just a
clinic in how to manage Scott Boris and avoid a
long term anchor.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So Kim declined his sixteen million dollar player option right.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
He was hoping for a big, multi year deal on
what everyone saw as a pretty shallow shortstop market.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
But the Braves were aggressive.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
They were They successfully maneuvered to bring him back on
a high aav one year contract twenty million dollars, so
they paid a four million dollar premium over his option,
but they avoided that long term commitment he was looking.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
For, and for the Braves, what kind of performance upgrade
does Kim represent, I mean, how bad were they at
shortstop in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
It's a massive, massive, and necessary upgrade the Braves suffered
through Nick Allen at shortstop in twenty twenty five. He
put up an unplayable fifty three ops plus.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Kim, could you just quickly define ops plus for our
listeners who might not track that specific metric.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Of course, ops plus is just a measure of offensive
performance that's adjusted for the ballparky play in one hundred
is league average.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
So Nick Allen's fifty three ops plus means he was
what almost half as good as an average.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Hitter, exactly offensively half as good as the average league shortstop. Kim,
even in his injury plague twenty twenty five, is a
vastly superior defensive shortstop who was averaging nearly four wins
above replacement per season before that, and.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
This lets Mauricio dubond and slide back into that super
utility role he's best at. Precisely so. The broader implication
here is this continuation of the Boras pivot accepting these
high AAV short term deals when the nine figure long
term contracts just don't show.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Up exactly we saw it with Alonso and Bregman too.
The high aav short term contract has become the default
compromise for his clients when the market doesn't produce that
mega deal they expected.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
It gives the player a chance to re enter the
market faster, and it.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Gives the club flexibility. It changes the risk profile for
everyone involved.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Then you have the Phillies signing a doles Garcia one year,
ten million dollars to play right field. This seems less
about offense and almost entirely about defense.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
It's paving the way for Nick Cassianas's exit.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Right a trade to release seems inevitable now.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
It is purely a defensive calculation, but it's one that
results in a huge improvement and run prevention for them.
Garcia posted an elite plus sixteen defensive run saved or
DRS in twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
Twenty five, and Casianos.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
For contact, Castianas posted a terrible minus eleven drs.
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Wow, that's the twenty seven run swing.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
It's a gurgantuan shift in run prevention. Castianas, who's owed
twenty million in twenty twenty six, is now almost certainly
going to be traded or released. He's clearly a DH
only player at this.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Point, But the financial implications of Garcia as ten million
dollar deal tell a much different story than just that
sticker price.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Oh this is where the CBT rules become absolutely critical.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Because the Phillies are deep into the luxury.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Tax, very deep. They fall into the third tier of penalties,
and they're nearing the fourth, So they will pay a
ninety five percent tax on Garcia's annual value.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Can you walk us through that specific tax calculation quickly?
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Certainly so. Once a team crosses that initial CBT threshold,
they pay increasing penalty percentages on every single dollar they
spend above that line.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
And the Phillies are so far over that line.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
That nearly every dollar they spend on a player has
to be matched by ninety five cents paid to the
league as a penalty, which means that ten million dollar
contract for Garcia actually cost the Phillies roughly nineteen and
a half million dollars overall.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Wow, if they're paying nineteen and a half million for
a player whose ops was sub point seven zero zero
zero zeros over the past two seasons, aren't they letting
defensive desperation just override sound judgment?
Speaker 2 (14:18):
That's a very valid criticism. It's a very costly one
year gamble. They're hoping to catch his twenty twenty three
World Series form rather than his recent downturn where his
chase rate just spite.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
So they're betting on their hitting coach, Kevin Long heavily.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
They're betting he can fix the swing and misissues. But
you know, even if the offense stays below average, they've
secured the elite defensive floor they so desperately needed in
right field.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Let's pivot to the trade market, which is where a
lot of these mid market teams are trying to find
their needle movers. The Seattle Mariners are looking for a
veteran infielder after losing Jorge Polanco, and the debate seems
to center around Kill Marte the d Backs and Brendan
Donovan of the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
This is a classic high rate, high reward decision for
Seattle's front office. It's the definition of go big or
go home.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
And you tell Marte is the high end target.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
He is switch hitter fresh off two silver sluggers. The
problem is leverage. The d Backs have massive leverage right now,
but that leverage completely vanishes in early twenty twenty six, because.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
That's when he gets his ten and five rights. For
those unfamiliar, what exactly are ten and five rights and
why do they impact the trade market so much so?
Speaker 2 (15:26):
A player gets ten and five rights when they have
ten years of major league service time and have spent
at least five consecutive years with their current team, and.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
That gives them a full no trade.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Class exactly, full veto power over any trade. The d
bacs know that if they wait until early twenty twenty six,
Marte can block any deal and they lose all their
trade leverage. This offseason is Arizona's last best chance to
maximize his value, so.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Teams like the Mariners, Red Sox, Blue Jays are all interesting.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
It's deeply interested.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
So if they can't get Marte, the Mariners are also
looking at Brendan Donovan, who is the cheaper, more versatile option,
but he still comes with a hefty prospect cost.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Donovan is younger and offers tremendous positional flexibility. I mean,
he can genuinely play everywhere in the infield and even
the corners.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
Of the outfield, and he's a consistent hitter.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Incredibly consistent. His WRC plus has been between one hundred
and fifteen and one to twenty seven for the last
four years. But the Cardinals are being aggressive. They're reportedly
asking for multiple top Seattle.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Prospects, specifically Lazara Montes and the switch pitcher Jerangelo Sinje.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
That's the rumor.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Yeah, I have to challenge this premise, though. If the
Cardinals are demanding two top prospects for a guy like Donovan,
does that acquisition really move the needle enough for Seattle
to justify gutting their farm system.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
That is the exact internal conflict happening in the Mariner's
front office right now. The sentiment is that Donovan doesn't
provide enough of an offensive upgrade over internal options like
Cole Young or Ben Williamson to justify trading top prospects.
Speaker 1 (16:57):
Because they're projected to be better defensively right.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
They argue that Young and Williamson are projected to out
defend him and potentially approximate his offensive production within a year.
Trading for Donovan only makes sense if they absolutely cannot
get Marte and feel desperate, or if the Cardinals lower
their asking price a lot.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
We've talked a lot about the big spenders, but what
about the Al Central teams, they seem to be sticking
to tighter budgets. The Twins, fresh off a down season,
just signed Josh Bell.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
Minnesota made a very strategic, targeted move there. Their biggest
offensive problem last season was a lack of patience and
way too many strikeouts.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
They were seventeenth in the league.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
I think yeah, a twenty two point six percent strikeout rate.
So Josh Bell, signed to a one year, seven million
dollar deal, directly addresses that need for contact quality. He
brings a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate,
which minimizes that feast or famine approach they've often had.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
Is this a bet on the player as a whole
or on a specific version of him?
Speaker 2 (17:54):
They're specifically betting on the second half Josh Bell from
twenty twenty five, after he made a miss season swing
change from the left side, he slashed an impressive point
two seven to two point three five seven point five zero.
Reports were his bat speed noticeably increased.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
I calculated short term.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Bet exactly on one specific mechanical adjustment.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Now you contrast that with the Guardians, who were basically
standing pat even after tying for last in the majors
in ninetieth percentile exitvelocity last year.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
That means when they hit the ball hard, they just
weren't hitting it hard enough to do real damage.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
And their team WRC plus was what.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Eighty six a pitofull eighty six, fourteen percent worse than
league average offensively. But the front office is preaching institutional patients.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
Antonetti has been pretty clear about it.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
He has stating that bringing an outside veteran bats might
take away opportunities from their young hitters, and that's a
risk they are not willing to take.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
But is there any justification for that optimism outside of
just organizational loyalty. What did the projection say for their
twenty twenty six lineup?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
This is where the data gets really interesting. The computer
systems are surprisingly optimistic. If you look at Steamer projections
for the twenty twenty six Guardians lineup with guys like
Stephen Kwan, Chase de Laughter, Kyle Manzardo, the average projected
WRC plus jumps dramatically to one oh six.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Point eight, as a phenomenal jump over twenty points better
than last year. Why the massive.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Projected leap, Well, the projection models anticipate that these young hitters,
especially the ones who showed flashes but maybe struggled with
consistency or injury last year, will realize their potential as they.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Mature, and a gain of twenty plus points would make
them an immediate thread in the Al Central.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
If they stay healthy and avoid that sophomore slump.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Now, if the Guardians do decide to move off that
youth trust model, the preferred trade target is definitely Wilson Contraras.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Who can split time at first and catcher.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
And he's an imposing bat. He put up a one
twenty four WRC plus last year and he crushes left
handed pitching.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
That raises a good question about resource allocation, especially in
that division. You see the Royals showing commitment by signing
Makel Garcia to that big extension.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Five years, fifty seven and a half million, locking up
their gold glove third baseman who significantly improved his plate
discipline last year.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
So the Royals are trying to create some continuity.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
And that Arcia extension was predicated entirely on complex player metrics.
His improved discipline and refined swing let him do damage
on more pitches. He went from a replacement level bat
to an all star caliber performer almost overnight.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
They're betting that internal data is worth a huge long
term commitment.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
They are.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
But now let's look at the trade block, because this
is where the premium starting pitching is hiding, and it
presents a huge dilemma for teams like the Mets, the Giants,
and the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
The pitching trade market is fascinating. It features two of
the absolute best starters in baseball, but with completely different
levels of control and cost, Freddie Peralta and Trek Scuball.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Let's start with Scooball. He's the perceived ace of the market.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
You could argue he's one of the two best pitchers
in baseball right now, but he's only one one year
away from free agency, which just inflates his price tag astronomically.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
So you're basically renting him for one season unless.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
You immediately sign him to a mega extension. The price
would be a massive haul of elite prospects, the kind
of prospects the Mets have been really hesitant to part with.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
And conversely, you have Freddy Peralta, who's being actively shopped
by the Brewers. Yeah, what's the appeal there?
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Peralta is on the block because the Brewers are operating
under tighter budget constraints, and they have outfield depth issues
they need to solve via trade, the appeals the contract.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
How much is he owed?
Speaker 2 (21:34):
He's only owed eight million dollars in twenty twenty six,
So you're getting a frontline starter for pennies on the
dollar compared to free agency. This is why teams like
the Giants and Mets are so interested.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Premium performance with extreme cost control for one year.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Exactly. It gives you a flexibility. The Scoobale deal just
does not offer.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Let's zoom in on the Al East again, specifically the
Red Sox, who are trying to acquire a starter via trade,
and there are rumors about a swap involving Jaron Duran
and the Royals Lefty Cole Reagan's.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
The Red Sox are desperate to maximize their pitching depth,
which is already pretty strong after signing Sonny Gray and
Johanno Viedo. They see Duran, who's high value but kind
of redundant outfielder for them, as a way to get
a high end starter.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Even if it makes their offense worse, even if.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
It exacerbates their offensive needs. And yes, the rumored asking
price from the Royals is Reagan's.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
Tell us about Reagan's profile, why is he so coveted
by a team that already has some good pitching.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
He is exactly the type of gigantic, high velocity lefty
that modern analytically minded front offices just drool over. His
fastball averages around ninety five, but it touches ninety nine,
and he has that change up, a devastating changeup that
generates swinging strikes almost thirty percent of the time against
right handed hitters. That is elite. It puts him in
(22:52):
the conversation with the game's best, and critically, he's under
team control for three more seasons for cheap, for an
estimated twelve million total across twenty twenty six and twenty
twenty seven, So.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
The Royals see him as a potential Game one postseason
starter who they don't have to pay for three more years,
which explains why they don't want to move him for
a position player exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Dealing Duran for Reagan's would be a massive coup for
the Red Sox pitching staff, but like you said, it
deepens their offensive need, especially since they already missed out
on guys like Alonzo and Schwarber.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
So it all circles back to the pending decisions on
the Japanese hitters like Kazuoma Okamoto, their continued pursuit of
Michael King. It's all connected back to Schoobel and the Tigers.
Detroit has been giving off some really conflicting signals about
what they plan to do with their ace.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
The signals were initially very very confusing. On one hand,
the GM was talking openly about how top prospects need
to play significant roles in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
Which sounds like a rebuild.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
It sounded like a preparatory move for a possible mid
season rebuild centered around trading Scooball. But then on the
other hand, they went out and signed veteran closer Kenley
Jansen to a one year.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Deal, and the Jansen signing now seems to be the
defining signal of their twenty twenty six intentions.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
It is a loud, unequivocal signal that they intend to
compete right now. Jansen is thirty eight years old, he
had twenty nine saves in a two point five to
nine ERA last year, and.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
He's close to a huge milestone.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Just two saves. Shy of passing Lee Smith for third
on the all time saves list. He is fiercely protecting
his Hall of Fame resume and would only sign somewhere
where he is the unquestioned closer and where the team
intends to genuinely contend.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
So by signing Jansen, Detroit is signaling their keeping Scoobule
and going for the ale Central crown.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
It strongly suggests it, and this move likely torpedoes the
Dodgers and Mets dreams of acquiring Schooble this winter.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Well, the Tigers are solidifying their core. Let's briefly look
at Oakland situation. They acquired JG. Blopez earlier this offseason.
What was his twenty twenty five like and what's his
status for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Lopez was acquired from the Rays back in December twenty
twenty four. He showed some flashes of real potential in
twenty twenty five, a seven to seven record, four point
eight eight ERA, struck out one hundred and thirteen batters
in about ninety two innings.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
He had that great start in August he did.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
He tossed seven and two third shutout innings with ten strikeouts,
But his season ended abruptly due to a left elbow
flexer strain late that month. He's a massive potential contributor
if he's healthy, but that elbow strain makes his health
the major question mark heading into spring training.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Let's pivot to the international market, which has several hard
deadlines coming up fast. We're talking about two major Japanese hitters,
Munataka Morikami and Kazuma Okamoto, and the top pitcher Tatsimi.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
The drama is peaking because the deadlines are right before
or just after the new year. Munataka Maakami's posting window
closes on December twenty second.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
He has lethal power.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Lethal power. He averaged over thirty three home runs a
year in Japan, but there are significant questions about his
high strikeout rates and his defense at third base. Most
clubs project him as a first baseman in MLB, and.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
The other hitter, Okamoto.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Kazuma Okamoto has until January fourth. He is generally considered
the more complete hitter than Wakami, better contact, better defense,
though his fit at third is also.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Debated, and he's already been linked to the Red Sox Yes.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Who could use his right handed power to target the
Green Monster and offset any lost offense from potential.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Trades, and the pitcher Imai, who is a major target
for the Yankees and Mets.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Pat Suyemi's window closes January second. He's the pitching star
who put up a phenomenal one point nine to ERA
with one hundred and seventy eight strikeouts in the NPB
and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
The Yankees have to be all over him.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Given their starting pitching injuries. They're reportedly among the expected suitors.
They have the budget for the nine figure deal he's
expected to command. The Mets are interested too, although Stearns
is famously reluctant to give long term deals to pitchers
in their late twenties or thirties.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Let's pivot to management and organizational challenges. We need to
talk about the Los Angeles Angels, who seem to have
lost all the optimism they had just a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Jos off season has been an organizational free fall.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
They just hired a new manager with a rather unusual resume.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
They hired Maui native Kurt Suzuki as manager despite him
having literally no professional or college managerial experience. His qualifications
rest solely on his sixteen years as a big league catcher.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Which requires a high baseball likeq it.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Does, and his three years as a front office consultant.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
But he was given a one year contract. What is
that signal? Is that commitment or is that the Angels
hedging their bets?
Speaker 2 (27:31):
It absolutely signals uncertainty and a lack of organizational stability.
Suzuki himself said he isn't concerned about the short deal,
but this hiring is directly connected to the larger chaos.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
GM perrimanation has been pretty quiet.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
He's only acquired von Grissom, he failed to keep Kenley Jansen,
and the front office is being questioned on whether their
promise of increased parroll flexibility was just you know, smoke
and mirrors.
Speaker 1 (27:54):
So signing Suzuki is a hail Mary for stability.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
It feels like it. The hope is that a guy
known for his or with pitching staffs might stabilize the
team while they still desperately pursue star free agents like
Tucker Bellinger or pitcher like Zach Gallon.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Let's talk about the Cincinnati Reds. They are facing a
serious identity crisis after their entire hitting philosophy just fell
completely flat last season.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
The twenty twenty five, Reds focused on hitting line drives
and prioritizing contact, often at the purposeful expense of true power.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
Shortened swings, minimize strikeouts, put the ball in play.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
The philosophy was simple, but the results were disastrous. The
team tied for last in the Majors with the Guardians,
with a ninetieth percentile exit velocity of just one hundred
and three point seven miles per hour.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
What does that number one or three point seven mean
in practical terms for the Reds.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
It means that even when their hitters did connect well,
they weren't hitting the ball hard enough to turn fly
balls into home runs or hardline drives into doubles. They
were sacrificing slugging for singles.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
And that lack of gap power is alarming for a
team with playoff assetions.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Especially with a guy like Ellie de la Cruz who
can knock the snot out of the ball, but they
lacked that consistent threat to clear the fences.
Speaker 1 (29:07):
Now they're facing a make or break twenty twenty six
for a couple of talented but inconsistent players who have
to prove that philosophical failure wasn't their fault.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
Two names really stand out, starting with right hander Lion Richardson.
He's a former second round pick and he is now
out of options.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
And for those who don't track the option system, why
is being out of options such a critical deadline for
a player like him?
Speaker 2 (29:29):
It means he can no longer be sent down to
the minor leagues without first clearing waivers. So he absolutely
must prove his value as an MLB player right now
or the Reds risk losing him for nothing to another team.
Speaker 1 (29:41):
And he was so inconsistent last year.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
He flashed electric stuff early in twenty twenty five with
a one point eighty five ERA over about twenty four innings,
but then he just completely fell apart gave up fourteen
earned runs over his final thirteen innings. The Reds need
him to harness that potential.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
On the offensive side. We have out Fielderrhese Hinz.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Heines still has one option left, but he's twenty six.
The power prospect needs to make his mark immediately. He's
known for prodigious power and speed.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
He had that absurd debut in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Four, Yeah six games, five homers, n L Player of
the Week. Crucially in Triple A and twenty twenty five,
he cut his strikeout rates significantly while maintaining power. Hit
twenty four homers and swiped twenty one bags.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
So the Reds are banking on that maturity translating to
the majors.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
They need it to. They need him to provide that
ideal power thread for the outfield.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Shifting over to the NL East, we need to discuss
a major performance decline in Atlanta Ozzi Albi's. The picture
of his twenty twenty five season is pretty bleak.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
It was a deeply disappointing year for Albe's, especially given
the offensive expectations for him as a key fixture in
that lineup. He posted a career worst eighty seven WRC
plus and got only one point three f war over
a heavy six hundred and sixty seven played appearances.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
So he took way more plate appearances to produce the
same value as the year.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Before, nearly two hundred fifty more.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
What went wrong with his swing?
Speaker 2 (31:02):
The key problem was a change in approach that seemed
to just rob him of his effectiveness. He posted a
career low barrel rate and had diminished exit velocity compared
to previous years.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
The Braves wanted him to walk more.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
They did, and he did for the first time since
his rookie season, but it came at the cost of
severely compromised contact quality and a noticeably slower swing. His
expected weighted on base average against fastballs was the second
worst of his career.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
But wasn't his historical strength hitting left handed pitching.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Yes, and that failed him completely. Perhaps the biggest issue
was his failure to crush left handed pitching, which has
historically been his bread and butter, and.
Speaker 1 (31:39):
When you combine those offensive issues with the defensive and
speed decline, it.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Created real internal questions about whether exercising his seven million
dollar club option for twenty twenty six was even worthwhile.
They ultimately did, but it was a conversation.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
That's a huge commitment to a player who seems to
be physically declining too. The note on his sprint speed.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
It's noticeable on the field, his arm strength continued to
be terrible, resulting in his third consecutive below average defensive
year at second and Yeah, his sprint speed has suffered
a pretty steep decline from the eighty ninth percentile when
he came up to the forty fourth percentile.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Now that's a crucial metric for a second baseman who
relies on range.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
A huge one. Atlanta is betting heavily on a mechanical
correction this winter.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Let's transition to a broader cultural discussion how baseball values
the people running the game and how it decides who
gets memorialized forever. Starting with manager compensation, which is still
such an anomaly in professional sports.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Managerial salaries remain a fascinating imbalance. The role has evolved
so much, it's more demanding, it's intertwined with complex metrics
and front office strategy.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
And yet the pay legs way behind the NBA.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
And NFL significantly. For example, the highest manager salary at
MLB belongs to the Dodgers Dave Roberts at eight point
one million a year. That is less than half of
what the top coaches in the other leagues make.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
And this issue is highlighted perfectly by the situation in
Milwaukee with Pat Murphy.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
Murphy won the NL Manager of the Year in back
to back seasons, bringing the Brewers into contention despite a
really tight payroll. His contract is set to expire after
the twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
Season, which puts the Brewers in the exact same position
they were in when they lost Craig Council of the.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Cups for a reported forty million over five years, which
gave Counsel the second highest managerial salary in the game.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
So if Murphy continues to succeed, the Brewers will again
face losing elite leadership purely because they can't afford to
compete with the massive paydays from large markets.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Exactly. Murphy says he loves Milwaukee and wants to stay,
but this systemic salary cap discrepancy puts small market teams
at a constant disadvantage when trying to retain elite leadership.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
So even the most successful analytically driven managers are just undervalued.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
Compared to the demands of the job today. Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Finally, we have to talk about the Hall of Fame's
classic Eerk Commits vote last week, a massive rejection of
two of the greatest players of their generation, Barry Bonds
and Roger Clemens.
Speaker 2 (34:08):
What's so fascinating here is the context that Commissioner Manford provides,
which frames this whole debate around integrity. The committee rejected
both Bonds and Clemens.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
They got fewer than the five votes needed for reconsideration.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
Right, despite the prevailing sentiment that maybe enough time has
passed since the ped scandal, and this decision stands in
stark contrast to Manfred's highly controversial move to make Pete
Rose eligible for Hall of Fame consideration in twenty twenty seven,
and the.
Speaker 1 (34:34):
Logic Manfred used for Rose, who was banned for life
for betting on games, was purely based on the fact
that he died in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Yes, Manfred reasoned that since Rose died, he quote no
longer posed any threat to the integrity of the sport
by betting on games.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
That logic created a huge cultural debate.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It did, and the committee's rejection of Bonds and Clemens
in the face of this capitulation on Rose was viewed
by some as a principled stand against this creeping nihilism
that suggests rules and standards no longer matter once the
player is retired or deceased.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
And Jeff Kent was the sole player elected, he was
a teammate of both Bonds and Clements.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
The election of Kent simply fueled the debate that the
Hall of Fame is incomplete or less legitimate as long
as Bonds and Clemens remain on the outside. It's just
a constant, painful reminder of that era of.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Suspicion, and Manfred is continuing to apply that same logic
to other players he is.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
He's also returning shoeless Joe Jackson, banned since nineteen twenty,
to the ballot, based on the same reasoning.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
So we've covered the biggest swings of the offseason, the
billion dollars in deferred money from the Dodgers, the mets
painful pivot, the Red Sox and Yankees scrambling for rotation.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Help right, and we are heading toward those critical Japanese
market deadlines.
Speaker 1 (35:48):
The core tension is still that massive spending disparity exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
You have the Dodgers' financial depth contrasted with teams like
the Brewers who are actively shopping their top affordable starter,
Freddy Pearl or the Cardinals demanding top prospects for Brendan Donovan,
and the free agent market still anchors on those big
three bats Tucker, Bellinger, and Bregman, who are all just
waiting for someone to set the price. The Red Sox
(36:13):
and Yankees, despite their different realities, are still trying to
figure out their ultimate offensive and pitching puzzles before spring training.
Speaker 1 (36:21):
What's fascinating here is just the sheer volume of player
movement required to assemble a roster today.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Oh, the twenty twenty five season showed how unstable rosters
have become. We saw incredible churn. The Baltimore Orioles used
seventy different players in twenty twenty five, tying a major
league record set by the twenty twenty four Marlins. That
is an astonishing reliance on deep organizational depth and constant
waiver claims just to field a team for one hundred
and sixty two games.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
Which emphasizes why organizations have to rely so heavily on
metrics and continuity.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
Like the Royal showed with Makel Garcia, his five year
extension was entirely predicated on his data driven improvement.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
It shows that organizational belief in data can lead to
massive long term commitments. But looking ahead to the future
talent pipeline, if these spending pressures and commitments continue to rise,
how might international players adapt to get more control over
their careers.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
That raises a really important question about control versus organizational power,
and we are seeing a potential new trend emerging from
Japan Japanese college ace Gnas Soto, who throws a high
nineties fastball and a low nineties splitter, is planning to
transfer to a US school in February to become eligible
for the twenty twenty seven MLB draft.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
That is highly unusual. Why would a top Japanese talent
bypass the entire established posting system.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
This is a deliberate atypical path that bypasses the mpb's
posting system, which ties a player to their Japanese club
and really limits their negotiating leverage when they finally jump
to MLB.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
So by going the draft route.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
He'll enter MLB as a traditional amateur prospect. It grants
him full control over his negotiating rights and he avoids
the posting fee entirely. Wow.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
And if Sado, who already had experienced dominating top NCAA hitters,
is successful with this, we might see more international stars
seeking control over their own careers. By choosing the draft
route rather than the traditional posting system. It could fundamentally
shift the power dynamic in the global talent pipeline.
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