October 27, 2024 • 30 mins
Dr. Ralph Ford, chancellor of Penn State Behrend, talks with Dr. Robert Speel, associate professor of political science, about Pennsylvania’s significance as a swing state in the 2024 presidential election. Originally recorded on October 14, 2024.
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Ralph Ford (00:00):
I'm Dr/ Ralph Ford, chancellor of Penn State Behrend
, and you are listening toBehrend Talks.
Today I have a very specialguest, Rob Spiel, associate
Professor of Political Scienceand the Director of our Public
Policy Initiative here at PennState Behrend.
With the upcoming election,we've got a lot to discuss the
(00:20):
presidential race, the politicaldivide in the nation, partisan
divisions and the overall stateof the country.
Can we ever find consensus inmiddle ground?
We'll aim to answer thosequestions.
Welcome to the show, Rob.
Robert Speel (00:36):
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
Ralph Ford (00:38):
I know you've been on this program before, so I'll
say welcome back.
I'm going to embarrass you justa little bit, like I like to do
with all the guests on the show, by highlighting your
incredible achievements.
You hold a PhD and a master'sdegree in government from
Cornell University, along with abachelor's degree in political
science and sociology from theUniversity of Pennsylvania.
You also teach courses onAmerican politics, focusing on
(01:01):
elections, voting behavior,congress and the presidency.
Every summer you take studentsto Toronto for a comparative
politics course.
You've written the bookChanging Patterns of Voting in
the Northern United States,which examines the regional
divide between red and bluestates.
You're also a regularcommentator for major national
news outlets and there are many,many of them, like Newsweek,
(01:24):
USA Today, the Miami Herald andthe Philadelphia Inquirer, as I
say, just to mention a few.
And you've earned severalprestigious awards here at
Behrend.
You've won the Council ofFellows Excellence in Outreach
Award and you've won the PennStatewide Award known as the
George W Atherton Award forExcellence in Teaching, which is
(01:45):
very difficult to win.
Once again, welcome here, Rob,thank you.
Now let's dive into the heart oftoday's discussion.
For the record, today isOctober 14th, 23 days before the
election.
Polls are showing an extremelytight race for the presidency,
with a slight lead for KamalaHarris.
Extremely tight race for thepresidency, with a slight lead
(02:06):
for Kamala Harris.
So let's start with polling.
So, Rob, how much weight wouldyou give to polls?
Can we trust them, and have welearned anything about polling
from recent elections?
Robert Speel (02:15):
We can trust polling to the extent that we're
pretty sure the race is close.
I mean, everyone who analyzesUS presidential politics thinks
it's close between Kamala Harrisand Donald Trump right now.
Who's actually winning, wedon't know.
Kamala Harris if you look atall polls combined, kamala
Harris probably does have aslight lead nationwide.
Of course, that doesn't accountfor the Electoral College,
(02:35):
which I think you'll be askingabout a little later.
So you know.
As far as who's going to win inNovember, we don't know yet.
As far as you know, as recentelections, donald Trump
outperformed how he was doing inpolling in 2016 and 2020.
On the other hand, democratsoutperformed how they were
polling in 2022 congressionalelections, as well as many other
special elections that havebeen held in the meantime.
(02:56):
So pollsters are constantlyfine-tuning their processes for
taking the polls, particularlybecause most Americans no longer
use landline phones.
How accurate they are this year, we're actually not going to
know until November.
Ralph Ford (03:10):
Personally, you know I like to follow
FiveThirtyEight.
I'm a bit of a political junkie.
I know many people follow it.
They run simulations.
I find this fascinating andthey show Kamala Harris winning
53 times out of 100 and DonaldTrump running.
If you run the simulation 100times, 47 times.
So do you think thosesimulations tell us much about
the election?
Robert Speel (03:32):
I think what it tells us is 538.com, the website
geared toward political junkies, is trying to get viewers and
readers to pay attention to itsforecast.
I mean in 2016, 538.com wastotally off the mark in
predicting that Hillary Clintonwas going to win, probably
fairly easily.
Along with several otherwebsites that year, 538.com this
(03:52):
year has been kind of reticentat predicting Kamala Harris will
win, even though national pollshave her slightly ahead.
So it's fun information to readand there's p some utility to
it, but they don't know anybetter than we do who's actually
going to win next month.
People who read 538.com peoplewho are totally apathetic about
politics are not looking at that.
So it's trying to get peoplewho are interested in politics
(04:14):
to read.
Ralph Ford (04:15):
What do you attribute this close race to,
and could anything shift thatdynamic in the coming weeks?
Robert Speel (04:21):
We have a polarized country and, to some
extent, the book you mentionedthat I wrote Changing Patterns
of Voting in the Northern UnitedStates.
A main argument in that book Iswhen one group of voters moves
toward one party and an oppositegroup of voters moves toward
the other party and the UnitedStates.
For a long time.
We've had divisions between theNorthern and Southern United
States In politics For most ofthe last 150 years.
(04:43):
So we're seeing that.
We're seeing.
We're seeing that.
We're seeing that reflected inthe polls.
We're seeing that reflected inelection results where you know
you have half the country who'svery conservative and thinks
Donald Trump is great and youhave half the country who's
either moderate or liberal andthinks Donald Trump is awful and
are choosing Kamala Harris andas certain groups gravitate
toward one candidate, groups andsort of reaction gravitate
(05:04):
toward the other candidate andwe're seeing that reflected in
polls right now 4% left ofundecided voters, according to
polls.
So if someone can win overthose 4%, I mean it's hard to
believe that.
You know Donald Trump can sayor do anything at this point
that will attract over half thecountry to his side.
He got less than half the voteeven in 2016 when he won due to
(05:26):
the Electoral College.
So right now I would say it'skind of up to Kamala Harris.
If something comes up that wedon't know about yet, some
scandal or something bad happens, you know it's possible some of
those so-called undecidedvoters may go to Trump.
Or if some of those undecidedvoters may decide look, we've
already been through four yearsof Trump, I don't want to do
that again, and they may notknow a lot about Kamala Harris,
(05:48):
but they'll just decide okay,well, she's a better option of
the two.
So you know what those 4% ofundecided people think.
It's hard to tell, and hardwhat they're going to do, but I
think a lot of it depends moreon Kamala Harris than on Trump.
Ralph Ford (06:06):
Well, let's also talk about campaign strategies.
Harris has been on 60 Minutes,late night comedy shows and
various media appearances thatyou're seeing with increasing
frequency.
How would you describe herstrategy?
Is it different from what we'veseen in the past?
Rob?
Robert Speel (06:18):
She's actually.
I saw today she's even going onFox News.
You know to sort of in thebelly of the beast there for her
.
You know she's trying to reacheveryone that she can on Fox
News.
You know to sort of in thebelly of the beast there for her
.
You know she's trying to reacheveryone that she can.
I think you know she's visitingmany places in Pennsylvania,
including Erie, and I thinkshe's kind of reaching out
toward that moderate vote.
You know the 4% of undecidedvoters are probably people who
are either largely apathetic orsomewhat moderate or centrist in
(06:42):
nature, and she's doing whatshe can to reach all of them.
She's going on various socialmedia podcasts and talking to
people who she might nototherwise, such as trying to
remember it's Call my Daddy.
It's a podcast I don't listento.
I've been telling studentsshotry try to go on Joe Rogan,
if Joe Rogan will allow her, onthe program.
(07:02):
I mean what we're seeing inpolls right now is women in the
United States strongly supportKamala Harris and men strongly
support Donald Trump, and she'sprobably more likely to be able
to try to win over some men thanDonald Trump is to win over
some women at this point.
So if she can go on thesesocial media platforms that
Donald Trump is heavilyinvesting time in, it probably
(07:25):
would be a good strategy for her, and I think we're Ro goi to
see her do that over the nextseveral weeks.
Ralph Ford (07:30):
This I find fascinating as well.
Donald Trump recentlycampaigned in California, where
he trails by a significantmargin.
What's the rationale behindthat move?
Robert Speel (07:41):
He's announced that he's going to win New York
too.
I mean, you know, Donald, Ican't get in the mind of Donald
Trump and what he's thinking.
He's not going to winCalifornia, he's not going to
win New York, I don't know.
I mean, you know, we had somesort of magical thinking by
Democrats in past electionswhere they would spend time in
Texas, you know, with the hopethat maybe they'd flip Texas,
and it didn't happen.
So you get that in everypresidential election.
(08:04):
If we didn't have an electoralcollege system, it would make
perfect sense for Donald Trumpto go to California and New York
because there's a lot of votersthere.
But in the electoral collegesystem, where you win a state by
1% of the vote and you get allthe electoral votes, it's R not
a wise time of resources.
But you know, donald Trumpwants to show national
popularity.
So even if he could makeCalifornia closer than expected,
he would probably take that asa win.
(08:25):
California, while it's not partof the same media market.
Nevada and Arizona are bothclose by and those are both
considered two of thebattleground states, so a Donald
Trump trip to SouthernCalifornia may get news
attention in Las Vegas and inPhoenix, which prodoes does want
to get.
Ralph Ford (08:43):
We often hear about what's known as a calcified
electorate, meaning it's hard tobreak through to either side,
with only a small percentage ofvoters in the middle still
undecided.
So do you think focusing ontheir bases deepens the
political divide?
Is that the approach thatcandidates should be taking, and
is there any way to break outof this pattern?
Robert Speel (09:03):
In the short term, I think it's going to continue
to be this way.
I mean, the reason we had morein the past we had some
elections where presidentialcandidates might win by a
landslide is we used to have alot of conservatives in the
South who were voted Democrat,and we used to have a lot of
moderates or liberals in theNorth who voted Republican, and
those are almost all gone now.
So we have this situation wherebasically all liberals vote
(09:25):
Democrat, all conservatives voteRepublican.
You have the solid South.
It used to be called the solidSouth because it would vote
Democrat in every election.
Now it votes Republican inevery election.
We have the northern stateswhich is what I wrote about in
my book with Penn State Pressmany of whom used to vote
Republican and now all voteDemocrat states like Vermont or
Maine or Minnesota.
So I mean, you know, we justhave this divide and I don't
(09:48):
know that anyone's going tobreak through anytime in the
near future.
The polarization has justbecome stronger and stronger,
and I think the internet andsocial media, rather than weaken
that those ties, have juststrengthened them, as people
only consume media thatgenerally agrees with things
they already believe rather thantry to find alternative
(10:08):
viewpoints.
Voter registration numbers arekind of irrelevant and I try to
tell that to reporters whocontact me about it a lot.
One state, Nnorth Dakota,doesn't even have voter
registration.
We have over half the statesnow who either have open primary
elections or alternative votingsystems where voter
registration really doesn'tmatter.
And in fact it makes sense insome of these states with open
primaries just to register as anindependent, because then you
(10:30):
can choose on the day of theprimary whether you're a
Republican or Democrat.
I grew up in the state of RhodeIsland, which has open
primaries, and I remember when Iturned 18, I registered as an
independent because there's nopoint to registering with the
party when you can vote ineither party's primary on the
day of the primary election.
So the number of people who areregistered as independent may
be growing.
I don't think that reallysignifies a growing group of
(10:52):
truly independent voters.
It's mainly just because of theelection system in those states
.
Ralph Ford (10:57):
Now let's shift the discussion right here to home in
Erie, Pennsylvania.
Erie is often highlighted as abellwether in presidential
elections.
Both candidates have campaignedhere recently, with Kamala
Harris actually visiting heretoday.
Why is Pennsylvania, andparticularly Erie, so important
for this election?
Robert Speel (11:16):
Well, because of the electoral college system,
what matters is winning closelycontested states by small
margins, and Pennsylvania is oneof the seven states that have
been designated by pretty muchthe entire American media, as
well as the campaigns themselves, as the battleground states
this year.
And of those seven battlegroundstates, ennsylvania is the
largest.
So many political analysts andjournalists see it as the
(11:38):
keystone state.
You know the nickname ofPennsylvania, the key to winning
victory in November.
Along with that, Erie County isone of only two counties in
Pennsylvania that voted forDonald Trump in 2016 and voted
for Joe Biden in 2020.
For that reasons, it's gainedbellwether status in recent
elections one of very fewcounties across the country, one
of only two in Pennsylvania, tovote for the winning
(11:59):
presidential candidate in thelast two elections.
The population of Erie Countyis about one-third urban the the
city of Erie about one-thirdsuburban Millcreek, Harborcreek,
a couple other towns and aboutone-third is rural.
So we have kind of the alldemographics that you might find
as far as the urban-rural splitin the United States.
Whereas urban areas like thecity of Erie usually vote
(12:21):
Democrat, rural areas like partsof Erie County usually vote
Republican and the suburbs oftendetermine the winner.
I like to tell people, andparticularly the reporters who
contact me from out of town andare coming to visit Erie, I say
go to Millcreek, the largestsuburb of Erie, because
Millcreek also voted for Trumpin 2016 and voted for Biden in
2020.
So I tell people that's theBellwether community in the
(12:44):
Bellwether County, in theBellwether State, and they've
taken my advice and most of themhave gone to Millcreek to see
what's happening.
Another thing that I think isimportant in Erie County as far
as being a bellwether County isErie County, from what I've
observed, probably has a higherpercentage of moderates or
centrists than you might find inmany other parts of the country
.
Most of my students who areDemocrats here I mean, some of
(13:05):
them are very liberal and arebig fans of Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders,but many of the local
Democratic students in myclasses are fairly moderate and
they support the DemocraticParty, but they're not as
liberal as you might findnational liberal Democrats and
same for Republicans.
Erie has a history of being astrong territory for moderate
(13:26):
Republicans, including Tom Ridge, the former congressman and
governor from Erie, and you geta lot of moderate Republicans
both in the city of Erie and inMillcreek probably who tend to
prefer conservative economicpolicies, but they're not
necessarily big Donald Trumpfans.
You know some of thosemoderates, while they may not be
as large in numbers in the past.
There's a long tradition inErie politics of having moderate
(13:49):
voters and I think some of themare the swing voters who are
determining who wins this county.
Ralph Ford (13:54):
And, on a personal note, Rob, how are you managing
all of this during the electionprocess?
It must be incredibly demanding.
Robert Speel (14:01):
Erie has become such a bellwether that you
mentioned some of the Americanmedia sources that have been
contacting me this year.
I've been contacted by a lot ofinternational media sources,
many of whom are visiting Erie.
I met with a reporter fromSouth Korea last week who was
visiting Erie, and tomorrow I ammeeting with a reporter from
France who is visiting Erie forthe week because they're looking
(14:23):
at Erie as the ellwether County.
I've been contacted by thePortuguese media, the Brazilian
media, the Hong Kong media,japanese media, canadian media
I'm trying to remember.
There have been other countriestoo.
I've been contacted probably byat least reporters in at least
10 different countries andthey're all asking about Erie
(14:43):
County because they want to seewho's going to show us, who's
going to win in November andthey're looking at Erie as the
bellwether county, not only forthe United States but
internationally.
I did do an interview with yeah.
One of the other countries thatcontacted me was Australia, the
Australian BroadcastingCorporation, and my interview
with them was at 4 a.
m, us Eastern time, because inAustralia I don't know what time
it was.
So, yeah, sometimes I get sleep, but sometimes I have to stay
(15:06):
busy through the night.
Ralph Ford (15:09):
What are you hearing from the students on campus
during this election cycle?
Are they engaged?
Are they planning to vote?
What are they thinking?
Robert Speel (15:17):
Our students when I teach American politics
classes political scienceclasses, of course and I found
in the past that my studentstend to reflect national opinion
fairly well, and what I'mseeing with my students now, I
think, confirms that.
Among female students I'mseeing very strong support for
Kamala Harris, which we also seein national polls.
Among male students, they seemto just be keeping quiet.
(15:39):
I don't really know who most ofmy male students support and
they don't talk about it.
I don't ask them directlyunless they come up to me and
volunteer that information.
Some of the male students haveindicated they do support Kamala
Harris, at least in my currentclasses.
I'm not finding a lot ofsupport for Trump, at least
vocally, but I'm guessing someof my male students probably do
support Trump because they don'tsay who they support and of
(16:01):
course we're seeing thatnationally with a large gender
gap divide between male andfemale voters.
You know, obviously in myclasses most students are
interested in politics.
They're in my political scienceclass, so you're probably going
to find more politicalawareness there than among other
students.
According to the students in myclasses, however, they know
students and friends from otherclasses who live with them in
(16:22):
the dorms who are paying verylittle attention to this
political race and who areclaiming they're not going to
vote.
I'm hoping that's not the case,but that's what I'm hearing
from students.
I do my best to seem neutral inclass.
Certainly in policies I canremain neutral because, you know
, my own political viewsactually are somewhat centrist,
so I'm able to say things thatwill make conservatives happy,
say things that make liberalshappy and just say things that I
(16:44):
think make the most sense.
It gets a little more difficultif you have a presidential
candidate who's just sayingthings that are blatantly untrue
.
And I'm not going to, you know,pretend for the class that the
untrue is the same as the true.
And so I sometimes do have tosay things.
But I think, even if you know,some students support the
candidate who might be sayinguntrue things, they understand
(17:04):
that.
You know, most educated peoplethink those things are untrue
and they live with it andthey're fine with it.
So you know, usually I try totake sort of a centrist, neutral
, moderate stand in my classpresentations.
I never, ever tell them who tovote for.
I also I change the way Iassign readings.
I used to assign kind of youknow, dry American government
(17:26):
textbooks, but I switched a fewyears ago and now I assign, you
know, both academic and a lot ofnews articles based on current
events.
So I'm having them read what'shappening in politics as it's
happening and reading articlesfrom a variety of sources so
they get different kinds ofviewpoints on what's happening
in American politics and I thinkactually that's worked really
well.
Students seem to like readingsabout current events in American
(17:49):
politics.
Ralph Ford (17:50):
I often hear people and I'm sure you do as well
alumni and community members.
They're asking me what'shappening on campus.
It's definitely a loadedquestion.
They often have thispreconceived notion based on
what they're seeing on theheadlines.
But I always tell them it's notquite what they might imagine.
So what's your perspective ofthe campus climate, particularly
(18:11):
around this election?
Robert Speel (18:13):
Yeah, I get that question a lot, not so much from
reporters but from relatives ofmine who are not on this campus
, as well as some of our alumni.
They'll ask me you know whatare the students doing to
protest events in the MiddleEast or other?
You know things that aregetting in the national news and
I basically say nothing.
I mean there are, there havebeen no, you know, widespread
(18:35):
protests on this campus.
You know what they're seeing inthe news is basically the elite
Ivy League schools and someother elite institutions where
students tend to come fromwell-off backgrounds and they're
busy protesting about whateverpolitical cause is important to
them at the moment, and thesecauses are important.
I mean, I want to say a lot ofthese protests are for good
causes, depending on yourperspective.
I want to say a lot of theseprotests are for good causes,
(18:55):
depending on your perspective.
But I tell alumni you knowalumni should really know the
campus perhaps that when theywere here there was a lot of
apathy and that hasn't changedtoo much.
And I tell relatives, you knowthe stuff you're seeing in the
news.
You know that's ColumbiaUniversity and University of
Pennsylvania and Harvard.
It's not Penn State, it's notPenn State Erie.
So, yeah, I mean there's a lotof misconceptions that this is
(19:16):
happening everywhere in thecountry and it's not.
Ralph Ford (19:19):
I also want to take a moment to commend you and your
colleagues in the politicalscience department.
I mean, many of our graduateshave gone on to have really
successful careers in politics,from congressional
representatives like Rep GuyReschenthaler, who's well known
to those working in variouspolitical offices.
I believe a lot of theirsuccess is inspired by what they
(19:39):
learn here at Penn StateBehrend.
Robert Speel (19:42):
Yeah, I think so, and actually just next week at
the time we're talking next weekon campus, we have a part of
the Penn State Behrend SpeakerSeries.
This year is Adam Fricassi-Weir, who is the Associate Director
of the Michigan Bureau ofElections.
He's basically the mainattorney for the Michigan Bureau
of Elections, so if there's anydisputes in Michigan after the
election this year, adam isgoing to be in charge of
figuring out what to do aboutall that, and he's speaking on
(20:04):
campus.
So he's another one of ouralumni who have accomplished a
lot.
I also want to add I takestudents to Washington DC every
other year and I'll be doingthat next March and we meet a
lot of our alumni who work inWashington, are quite successful
there, including CongressmanReschenthaler and several other
alumni who may listen to thisprogram.
(20:24):
So I'm really proud of what alot of our alumni have
accomplished.
Ralph Ford (20:31):
We've seen increasing attacks on the
election process itself,particularly around the fairness
of elections.
Do you think this weakens thesystem?
Robert Speel (20:46):
And are there any steps that we can do to
strengthen it?
It's hard, I mean.
People sometimes ask me what doI think is the biggest
political danger facing thiscountry, and my answer over the
last several months has beenmisinformation and
disinformation.
Disinformation is kind ofintentional misinformation being
spread by political actors tofool people, and misinformation
(21:08):
is just people not knowingwhat's real and what's not, and
I think it's a growing problem.
I mean, the internet, you know,supposedly when it began was
supposed to provide moreeducation for people and people
could learn more about politics,but instead it's become a venue
.
It still does serve a usefulpurpose, but it's also become a
venue for misinformationdisinformation so you get people
who make up claims aboutmillions of illegal immigrants
(21:30):
voting, which is just not true.
You get people making otherclaims that the elections are
fixed and whatever, and justnone of this happened.
I mean, yes, every election, youhave a small number of people.
I mean I think there have beenabout 30 people convicted after
the 2020 presidential electionof voting twice.
It's often more frequently thannot.
It was actually Trump voters in2020, from news reports I've
(21:51):
read, and most frequently whatthey've done is they're
registered to vote in twodifferent states and they'll
vote in person in one state andvote by mail in the other state.
And does that happenoccasionally?
Yes, Is there widespread voterfraud?
No, Is there voter fraud to theextent that it affected the
outcome of the election?
Absolutely not.
But people will believe almostanything they see or hear,
(22:11):
particularly in social media,and it's becoming a problem.
So I think election integrity,I think election officials do
the best they can.
Are there mistakes in everyelection?
Yes, I mean local electionofficials work hard, they stay
up late to count the votes andafter every election, a couple,
a week or two later, there areelection officials somewhere
that find oh, we made a mistakeon election night and they
(22:32):
correct it.
Unless the election's withinyou know 100 or 200 votes, it
usually doesn't matter.
But you know they work hard tomake sure the elections are fair
and done in a smooth manner,and I think in the United States
we should trust electionresults far more than perhaps in
other countries where there isa lot of corruption and rigging
going on.
Ralph Ford (22:51):
Another big issue is misinformation and
disinformation.
With social media playing sucha large role, do you think
that's a bigger risk than thingslike gerrymandering or even
political violence?
Robert Speel (23:04):
Well, yeah, gerrymandering is a bad thing I
wouldn't necessarily call it thebiggest risk to this country
and violence obviously is a bigrisk, which is bad, but that
violence tends to be based ondisinformation.
So I mean, I think that's thenumber one.
I mean, from my perspective,that's the number one danger to
the future of democracy in thiscountry is the spread of
misinformation anddisinformation.
(23:24):
You try to vote against peoplespreading false information, but
a lot of people believe thefalse information.
So how do you convince them?
I don't know.
The social media leaders, youknow, including Mark Zuckerberg
at Facebook and the leaders ofTwitter back in 2020, you know,
would try to remove posts thatthey thought were spreading
(23:46):
misinformation, but they've allbacked off of that and in fact,
elon Musk, on what is now X,kind of welcomes misinformation
and actually posts some of ithimself.
So at this point, I don't knowwhat you do.
Ralph Ford (23:57):
Looking ahead to Election Day, do you think we'll
have a clear result by midnight, or will the count drag on?
Robert Speel (24:04):
At midnight.
If you go to bed at midnight,maybe not unless one candidate
is winning by a large margin bythe time you wake up the next
morning at 6 or 7 am, I thinkit's over a 50% chance.
We do know the winner, but Ithink it may happen after
midnight.
So you just have to stay upreally late, which I tend to do
anyway, but I know not everyoneis able to do that.
Ralph Ford (24:24):
Mail-in ballots have been another hot topic here in
Pennsylvania.
Why do we wait until ElectionDay to start counting them,
instead of processing themearlier?
Robert Speel (24:34):
Well, that's state law.
I mean the legislature.
Interestingly and I teach thisto students the Republican
majority state legislature inPennsylvania and Harrisburg
approved no excuses mail-invoting in 2019 because prior to
2020, republicans were morelikely to vote by mail than
Democrats were.
It used to be under theabsentee ballot system.
A large portion of absenteeballots, or mail ballots, were
(24:58):
from overseas military personneland as well as retired people
who maybe had difficulty gettingto polling places, and these
are both groups that skewRepublican.
And then in 2020, covid hit andmillions of voters, including a
disproportionate share ofDemocrats I know I'm not
referring to you individuallyhere, but millions of American
(25:18):
voters decided you know, I don'twant to go to a polling place,
and also, voting by mail isconvenient.
One of the nice things aboutvoting by mail is, in
Pennsylvania, we have all thesecandidates on the ballot that no
one's ever heard of.
You know people running forjudges and state auditor general
.
No one knows anything aboutthem.
If you vote by mail, you canactually, you know, do your
research as you vote and try tofigure out you know which side
to vote for.
So in 2019, republicans passedthe law, but then in 2020, of
(25:42):
course, we had one presidentialcandidate who said voting by
mail is a fraud and there'scorruption.
And you suddenly get thisdivide between Democrats who
support mail balloting andRepublicans who now oppose mail
balloting because of that.
And so the Republicans inHarrisburg have been unwilling
to change Pennsylvania state lawto allow vote counting or even
(26:02):
the opening of mail ballots tobegin before election day, which
is what most other states do.
Other states have the personpower and they open the mail
ballots and they don't startcounting them.
But well, a few states actually, they do start counting them,
but in most states, they'll openthe ballots, open the envelopes
at least they'll have the mailballots and they don't start
counting them.
But well, a few states actually, they do start counting them,
but in most states, they'll openthe ballots, open the envelopes
at least they'll have the mailballots ready to feed through
the machine, ready to go onelection day, and they have the
person power in place to do this.
(26:23):
Pennsylvania could also do that, but it would require a change
in state law.
So Pennsylvania state lawcurrently says that election
officials can't even open theenvelopes containing mail
ballots until election day,which of course, led to a
delayed count in 2020 andaccusations of fraud and
corruption and we found out whowon Pennsylvania.
I think it was on the Saturdayafter the election, which is
(26:44):
when it was announced that JoeBiden had earned enough
electoral votes to win.
I think I noticed in 2022,.
In 2022, pennsylvania countedall the votes on election night
and John Fetterman was declaredthe winner of the US Senate race
on election night.
So I have suspicions thatelection officials across the
state have figured out a way todeal with this probably of not
being able to open envelopesuntil election day, and we'll
(27:07):
probably be quicker this yearthan they were in 2020, but
there are also more votes in apresidential election year than
in a midterm election 2020, butthere are also more votes in a
presidential election year thanin a midterm election.
So it probably will still gopast midnight on election night,
which is why I said you know,if you go to bed at midnight,
you may miss the results.
If you're up at 6 am, you mayfind out the results.
Ralph Ford (27:24):
And now, ob, for one of your favorite subjects, the
Electoral College.
Do you think it's stillrelevant and do you see any
possibility of change?
Robert Speel (27:34):
Without an Electoral College.
If every vote mattered, you'dsee Donald Trump and Kamala
Harris campaigning far more inCalifornia to win the votes of
not only people in San Franciscoand Los Angeles but in the
Central Valley, which is morerural and Republican.
You'd see them both campaigningin Texas, in Austin and San
Antonio and Dallas and Houstonand small cities across Texas.
You'd see them go to Oklahoma.
They'd campaign in OklahomaCity.
(27:57):
They'd go to Kansas City andKansas and Houston and small
cities across Texas.
You'd see them go to Oklahoma.
They'd campaign in OklahomaCity.
They'd go to Kansas City.
In Kansas and Missouri, theywould go to Indianapolis.
They would go to Louisville,kentucky.
They would go to Birmingham,alabama.
They would go to all theseplaces they completely ignore
now because every vote mattersand anywhere there's a
concentration of votes theywould go without the electoral
college.
So the idea of the electoralcollege kind of helps out small
states is just.
It's easy to disprove and in2020 and 2016, the four major
(28:21):
party presidential and vicepresidential candidates spent
over 90% of their time in justabout 10 states each time and
the other 40 states all gotignored and we're seeing that
again this year.
Ralph Ford (28:28):
As we near the end of our time, let me ask you one
final question.
Do you think the US politicallandscape has any hope of
moderation?
Are we locked into thisentrenched two-party system for
the foreseeable future?
Robert Speel (28:42):
In the short term, I think we're going to continue
the way they are withpolarization.
In the long term, I think it'spossible.
You know it depends.
Politics in the United Statesdepends far more on leadership
than perhaps a lot of politicalscientists might want to admit.
A lot of political scientistswould just look at you know
political and economic trends.
But if I think of a certaintype of you know, charismatic
leader who's able to convincepeople one way or the other
(29:04):
about certain issues, that cancause what's called a
realignment in political science.
And, you know, perhaps youcould get a resurgence of a
centrist voting bloc in thiscountry if you found the right
candidate to lead it.
I don't know that we havesomeone right now, but in the
long-term future then maybe yes,and we can look overseas and we
can look.
You know, a lot of Europeancountries are having the same
(29:25):
issues with polarization, but insome of those countries
centrists have been able tobreak through and win elections.
And it could happen here toowith the right type of political
leadership.
Ralph Ford (29:36):
Well said, Rob.
Before we close, is thereanything else you'd like to add?
Robert Speel (29:41):
I'll just add I mean you mentioned at the top
some of my past publications andwork I've done.
But in March of next year theUniversity of Toronto Press will
be publishing a book Ico-authored called the Same,
only Different comparing Canadaand the United States, which is
based on the course I've beenteaching in Toronto for many
years.
Ralph Ford (30:00):
You've been listening to Dr Rob Sp,
Associate Professor of PoliticalScience here at Penn State,
Behrend.
This has been a greatconversation.
I'm Dr Ralph Ford and you'vebeen listening to Behrend Talks.
Robert Speel (30:11):
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
I'm Dr/ Ralph Ford, chancellor of Penn State Behrend
, and you are listening toBehrend Talks.
Today I have a very specialguest, Rob Spiel, associate
Professor of Political Scienceand the Director of our Public
Policy Initiative here at PennState Behrend.
With the upcoming election,we've got a lot to discuss the
(00:20):
presidential race, the politicaldivide in the nation, partisan
divisions and the overall stateof the country.
Can we ever find consensus inmiddle ground?
We'll aim to answer thosequestions.
Welcome to the show, Rob.
Robert Speel (00:36):
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
Ralph Ford (00:38):
I know you've been on this program before, so I'll
say welcome back.
I'm going to embarrass you justa little bit, like I like to do
with all the guests on the show, by highlighting your
incredible achievements.
You hold a PhD and a master'sdegree in government from
Cornell University, along with abachelor's degree in political
science and sociology from theUniversity of Pennsylvania.
You also teach courses onAmerican politics, focusing on
(01:01):
elections, voting behavior,congress and the presidency.
Every summer you take studentsto Toronto for a comparative
politics course.
You've written the bookChanging Patterns of Voting in
the Northern United States,which examines the regional
divide between red and bluestates.
You're also a regularcommentator for major national
news outlets and there are many,many of them, like Newsweek,
(01:24):
USA Today, the Miami Herald andthe Philadelphia Inquirer, as I
say, just to mention a few.
And you've earned severalprestigious awards here at
Behrend.
You've won the Council ofFellows Excellence in Outreach
Award and you've won the PennStatewide Award known as the
George W Atherton Award forExcellence in Teaching, which is
(01:45):
very difficult to win.
Once again, welcome here, Rob,thank you.
Now let's dive into the heart oftoday's discussion.
For the record, today isOctober 14th, 23 days before the
election.
Polls are showing an extremelytight race for the presidency,
with a slight lead for KamalaHarris.
Extremely tight race for thepresidency, with a slight lead
(02:06):
for Kamala Harris.
So let's start with polling.
So, Rob, how much weight wouldyou give to polls?
Can we trust them, and have welearned anything about polling
from recent elections?
Robert Speel (02:15):
We can trust polling to the extent that we're
pretty sure the race is close.
I mean, everyone who analyzesUS presidential politics thinks
it's close between Kamala Harrisand Donald Trump right now.
Who's actually winning, wedon't know.
Kamala Harris if you look atall polls combined, kamala
Harris probably does have aslight lead nationwide.
Of course, that doesn't accountfor the Electoral College,
(02:35):
which I think you'll be askingabout a little later.
So you know.
As far as who's going to win inNovember, we don't know yet.
As far as you know, as recentelections, donald Trump
outperformed how he was doing inpolling in 2016 and 2020.
On the other hand, democratsoutperformed how they were
polling in 2022 congressionalelections, as well as many other
special elections that havebeen held in the meantime.
(02:56):
So pollsters are constantlyfine-tuning their processes for
taking the polls, particularlybecause most Americans no longer
use landline phones.
How accurate they are this year, we're actually not going to
know until November.
Ralph Ford (03:10):
Personally, you know I like to follow
FiveThirtyEight.
I'm a bit of a political junkie.
I know many people follow it.
They run simulations.
I find this fascinating andthey show Kamala Harris winning
53 times out of 100 and DonaldTrump running.
If you run the simulation 100times, 47 times.
So do you think thosesimulations tell us much about
the election?
Robert Speel (03:32):
I think what it tells us is 538.com, the website
geared toward political junkies, is trying to get viewers and
readers to pay attention to itsforecast.
I mean in 2016, 538.com wastotally off the mark in
predicting that Hillary Clintonwas going to win, probably
fairly easily.
Along with several otherwebsites that year, 538.com this
(03:52):
year has been kind of reticentat predicting Kamala Harris will
win, even though national pollshave her slightly ahead.
So it's fun information to readand there's p some utility to
it, but they don't know anybetter than we do who's actually
going to win next month.
People who read 538.com peoplewho are totally apathetic about
politics are not looking at that.
So it's trying to get peoplewho are interested in politics
(04:14):
to read.
Ralph Ford (04:15):
What do you attribute this close race to,
and could anything shift thatdynamic in the coming weeks?
Robert Speel (04:21):
We have a polarized country and, to some
extent, the book you mentionedthat I wrote Changing Patterns
of Voting in the Northern UnitedStates.
A main argument in that book Iswhen one group of voters moves
toward one party and an oppositegroup of voters moves toward
the other party and the UnitedStates.
For a long time.
We've had divisions between theNorthern and Southern United
States In politics For most ofthe last 150 years.
(04:43):
So we're seeing that.
We're seeing.
We're seeing that.
We're seeing that reflected inthe polls.
We're seeing that reflected inelection results where you know
you have half the country who'svery conservative and thinks
Donald Trump is great and youhave half the country who's
either moderate or liberal andthinks Donald Trump is awful and
are choosing Kamala Harris andas certain groups gravitate
toward one candidate, groups andsort of reaction gravitate
(05:04):
toward the other candidate andwe're seeing that reflected in
polls right now 4% left ofundecided voters, according to
polls.
So if someone can win overthose 4%, I mean it's hard to
believe that.
You know Donald Trump can sayor do anything at this point
that will attract over half thecountry to his side.
He got less than half the voteeven in 2016 when he won due to
(05:26):
the Electoral College.
So right now I would say it'skind of up to Kamala Harris.
If something comes up that wedon't know about yet, some
scandal or something bad happens, you know it's possible some of
those so-called undecidedvoters may go to Trump.
Or if some of those undecidedvoters may decide look, we've
already been through four yearsof Trump, I don't want to do
that again, and they may notknow a lot about Kamala Harris,
(05:48):
but they'll just decide okay,well, she's a better option of
the two.
So you know what those 4% ofundecided people think.
It's hard to tell, and hardwhat they're going to do, but I
think a lot of it depends moreon Kamala Harris than on Trump.
Ralph Ford (06:06):
Well, let's also talk about campaign strategies.
Harris has been on 60 Minutes,late night comedy shows and
various media appearances thatyou're seeing with increasing
frequency.
How would you describe herstrategy?
Is it different from what we'veseen in the past?
Rob?
Robert Speel (06:18):
She's actually.
I saw today she's even going onFox News.
You know to sort of in thebelly of the beast there for her
.
You know she's trying to reacheveryone that she can on Fox
News.
You know to sort of in thebelly of the beast there for her
.
You know she's trying to reacheveryone that she can.
I think you know she's visitingmany places in Pennsylvania,
including Erie, and I thinkshe's kind of reaching out
toward that moderate vote.
You know the 4% of undecidedvoters are probably people who
are either largely apathetic orsomewhat moderate or centrist in
(06:42):
nature, and she's doing whatshe can to reach all of them.
She's going on various socialmedia podcasts and talking to
people who she might nototherwise, such as trying to
remember it's Call my Daddy.
It's a podcast I don't listento.
I've been telling studentsshotry try to go on Joe Rogan,
if Joe Rogan will allow her, onthe program.
(07:02):
I mean what we're seeing inpolls right now is women in the
United States strongly supportKamala Harris and men strongly
support Donald Trump, and she'sprobably more likely to be able
to try to win over some men thanDonald Trump is to win over
some women at this point.
So if she can go on thesesocial media platforms that
Donald Trump is heavilyinvesting time in, it probably
(07:25):
would be a good strategy for her, and I think we're Ro goi to
see her do that over the nextseveral weeks.
Ralph Ford (07:30):
This I find fascinating as well.
Donald Trump recentlycampaigned in California, where
he trails by a significantmargin.
What's the rationale behindthat move?
Robert Speel (07:41):
He's announced that he's going to win New York
too.
I mean, you know, Donald, Ican't get in the mind of Donald
Trump and what he's thinking.
He's not going to winCalifornia, he's not going to
win New York, I don't know.
I mean, you know, we had somesort of magical thinking by
Democrats in past electionswhere they would spend time in
Texas, you know, with the hopethat maybe they'd flip Texas,
and it didn't happen.
So you get that in everypresidential election.
(08:04):
If we didn't have an electoralcollege system, it would make
perfect sense for Donald Trumpto go to California and New York
because there's a lot of votersthere.
But in the electoral collegesystem, where you win a state by
1% of the vote and you get allthe electoral votes, it's R not
a wise time of resources.
But you know, donald Trumpwants to show national
popularity.
So even if he could makeCalifornia closer than expected,
he would probably take that asa win.
(08:25):
California, while it's not partof the same media market.
Nevada and Arizona are bothclose by and those are both
considered two of thebattleground states, so a Donald
Trump trip to SouthernCalifornia may get news
attention in Las Vegas and inPhoenix, which prodoes does want
to get.
Ralph Ford (08:43):
We often hear about what's known as a calcified
electorate, meaning it's hard tobreak through to either side,
with only a small percentage ofvoters in the middle still
undecided.
So do you think focusing ontheir bases deepens the
political divide?
Is that the approach thatcandidates should be taking, and
is there any way to break outof this pattern?
Robert Speel (09:03):
In the short term, I think it's going to continue
to be this way.
I mean, the reason we had morein the past we had some
elections where presidentialcandidates might win by a
landslide is we used to have alot of conservatives in the
South who were voted Democrat,and we used to have a lot of
moderates or liberals in theNorth who voted Republican, and
those are almost all gone now.
So we have this situation wherebasically all liberals vote
(09:25):
Democrat, all conservatives voteRepublican.
You have the solid South.
It used to be called the solidSouth because it would vote
Democrat in every election.
Now it votes Republican inevery election.
We have the northern stateswhich is what I wrote about in
my book with Penn State Pressmany of whom used to vote
Republican and now all voteDemocrat states like Vermont or
Maine or Minnesota.
So I mean, you know, we justhave this divide and I don't
(09:48):
know that anyone's going tobreak through anytime in the
near future.
The polarization has justbecome stronger and stronger,
and I think the internet andsocial media, rather than weaken
that those ties, have juststrengthened them, as people
only consume media thatgenerally agrees with things
they already believe rather thantry to find alternative
(10:08):
viewpoints.
Voter registration numbers arekind of irrelevant and I try to
tell that to reporters whocontact me about it a lot.
One state, Nnorth Dakota,doesn't even have voter
registration.
We have over half the statesnow who either have open primary
elections or alternative votingsystems where voter
registration really doesn'tmatter.
And in fact it makes sense insome of these states with open
primaries just to register as anindependent, because then you
(10:30):
can choose on the day of theprimary whether you're a
Republican or Democrat.
I grew up in the state of RhodeIsland, which has open
primaries, and I remember when Iturned 18, I registered as an
independent because there's nopoint to registering with the
party when you can vote ineither party's primary on the
day of the primary election.
So the number of people who areregistered as independent may
be growing.
I don't think that reallysignifies a growing group of
(10:52):
truly independent voters.
It's mainly just because of theelection system in those states
.
Ralph Ford (10:57):
Now let's shift the discussion right here to home in
Erie, Pennsylvania.
Erie is often highlighted as abellwether in presidential
elections.
Both candidates have campaignedhere recently, with Kamala
Harris actually visiting heretoday.
Why is Pennsylvania, andparticularly Erie, so important
for this election?
Robert Speel (11:16):
Well, because of the electoral college system,
what matters is winning closelycontested states by small
margins, and Pennsylvania is oneof the seven states that have
been designated by pretty muchthe entire American media, as
well as the campaigns themselves, as the battleground states
this year.
And of those seven battlegroundstates, ennsylvania is the
largest.
So many political analysts andjournalists see it as the
(11:38):
keystone state.
You know the nickname ofPennsylvania, the key to winning
victory in November.
Along with that, Erie County isone of only two counties in
Pennsylvania that voted forDonald Trump in 2016 and voted
for Joe Biden in 2020.
For that reasons, it's gainedbellwether status in recent
elections one of very fewcounties across the country, one
of only two in Pennsylvania, tovote for the winning
(11:59):
presidential candidate in thelast two elections.
The population of Erie Countyis about one-third urban the the
city of Erie about one-thirdsuburban Millcreek, Harborcreek,
a couple other towns and aboutone-third is rural.
So we have kind of the alldemographics that you might find
as far as the urban-rural splitin the United States.
Whereas urban areas like thecity of Erie usually vote
(12:21):
Democrat, rural areas like partsof Erie County usually vote
Republican and the suburbs oftendetermine the winner.
I like to tell people, andparticularly the reporters who
contact me from out of town andare coming to visit Erie, I say
go to Millcreek, the largestsuburb of Erie, because
Millcreek also voted for Trumpin 2016 and voted for Biden in
2020.
So I tell people that's theBellwether community in the
(12:44):
Bellwether County, in theBellwether State, and they've
taken my advice and most of themhave gone to Millcreek to see
what's happening.
Another thing that I think isimportant in Erie County as far
as being a bellwether County isErie County, from what I've
observed, probably has a higherpercentage of moderates or
centrists than you might find inmany other parts of the country
.
Most of my students who areDemocrats here I mean, some of
(13:05):
them are very liberal and arebig fans of Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders,but many of the local
Democratic students in myclasses are fairly moderate and
they support the DemocraticParty, but they're not as
liberal as you might findnational liberal Democrats and
same for Republicans.
Erie has a history of being astrong territory for moderate
(13:26):
Republicans, including Tom Ridge, the former congressman and
governor from Erie, and you geta lot of moderate Republicans
both in the city of Erie and inMillcreek probably who tend to
prefer conservative economicpolicies, but they're not
necessarily big Donald Trumpfans.
You know some of thosemoderates, while they may not be
as large in numbers in the past.
There's a long tradition inErie politics of having moderate
(13:49):
voters and I think some of themare the swing voters who are
determining who wins this county.
Ralph Ford (13:54):
And, on a personal note, Rob, how are you managing
all of this during the electionprocess?
It must be incredibly demanding.
Robert Speel (14:01):
Erie has become such a bellwether that you
mentioned some of the Americanmedia sources that have been
contacting me this year.
I've been contacted by a lot ofinternational media sources,
many of whom are visiting Erie.
I met with a reporter fromSouth Korea last week who was
visiting Erie, and tomorrow I ammeeting with a reporter from
France who is visiting Erie forthe week because they're looking
(14:23):
at Erie as the ellwether County.
I've been contacted by thePortuguese media, the Brazilian
media, the Hong Kong media,japanese media, canadian media
I'm trying to remember.
There have been other countriestoo.
I've been contacted probably byat least reporters in at least
10 different countries andthey're all asking about Erie
(14:43):
County because they want to seewho's going to show us, who's
going to win in November andthey're looking at Erie as the
bellwether county, not only forthe United States but
internationally.
I did do an interview with yeah.
One of the other countries thatcontacted me was Australia, the
Australian BroadcastingCorporation, and my interview
with them was at 4 a.
m, us Eastern time, because inAustralia I don't know what time
it was.
So, yeah, sometimes I get sleep, but sometimes I have to stay
(15:06):
busy through the night.
Ralph Ford (15:09):
What are you hearing from the students on campus
during this election cycle?
Are they engaged?
Are they planning to vote?
What are they thinking?
Robert Speel (15:17):
Our students when I teach American politics
classes political scienceclasses, of course and I found
in the past that my studentstend to reflect national opinion
fairly well, and what I'mseeing with my students now, I
think, confirms that.
Among female students I'mseeing very strong support for
Kamala Harris, which we also seein national polls.
Among male students, they seemto just be keeping quiet.
(15:39):
I don't really know who most ofmy male students support and
they don't talk about it.
I don't ask them directlyunless they come up to me and
volunteer that information.
Some of the male students haveindicated they do support Kamala
Harris, at least in my currentclasses.
I'm not finding a lot ofsupport for Trump, at least
vocally, but I'm guessing someof my male students probably do
support Trump because they don'tsay who they support and of
(16:01):
course we're seeing thatnationally with a large gender
gap divide between male andfemale voters.
You know, obviously in myclasses most students are
interested in politics.
They're in my political scienceclass, so you're probably going
to find more politicalawareness there than among other
students.
According to the students in myclasses, however, they know
students and friends from otherclasses who live with them in
(16:22):
the dorms who are paying verylittle attention to this
political race and who areclaiming they're not going to
vote.
I'm hoping that's not the case,but that's what I'm hearing
from students.
I do my best to seem neutral inclass.
Certainly in policies I canremain neutral because, you know
, my own political viewsactually are somewhat centrist,
so I'm able to say things thatwill make conservatives happy,
say things that make liberalshappy and just say things that I
(16:44):
think make the most sense.
It gets a little more difficultif you have a presidential
candidate who's just sayingthings that are blatantly untrue
.
And I'm not going to, you know,pretend for the class that the
untrue is the same as the true.
And so I sometimes do have tosay things.
But I think, even if you know,some students support the
candidate who might be sayinguntrue things, they understand
(17:04):
that.
You know, most educated peoplethink those things are untrue
and they live with it andthey're fine with it.
So you know, usually I try totake sort of a centrist, neutral
, moderate stand in my classpresentations.
I never, ever tell them who tovote for.
I also I change the way Iassign readings.
I used to assign kind of youknow, dry American government
(17:26):
textbooks, but I switched a fewyears ago and now I assign, you
know, both academic and a lot ofnews articles based on current
events.
So I'm having them read what'shappening in politics as it's
happening and reading articlesfrom a variety of sources so
they get different kinds ofviewpoints on what's happening
in American politics and I thinkactually that's worked really
well.
Students seem to like readingsabout current events in American
(17:49):
politics.
Ralph Ford (17:50):
I often hear people and I'm sure you do as well
alumni and community members.
They're asking me what'shappening on campus.
It's definitely a loadedquestion.
They often have thispreconceived notion based on
what they're seeing on theheadlines.
But I always tell them it's notquite what they might imagine.
So what's your perspective ofthe campus climate, particularly
(18:11):
around this election?
Robert Speel (18:13):
Yeah, I get that question a lot, not so much from
reporters but from relatives ofmine who are not on this campus
, as well as some of our alumni.
They'll ask me you know whatare the students doing to
protest events in the MiddleEast or other?
You know things that aregetting in the national news and
I basically say nothing.
I mean there are, there havebeen no, you know, widespread
(18:35):
protests on this campus.
You know what they're seeing inthe news is basically the elite
Ivy League schools and someother elite institutions where
students tend to come fromwell-off backgrounds and they're
busy protesting about whateverpolitical cause is important to
them at the moment, and thesecauses are important.
I mean, I want to say a lot ofthese protests are for good
causes, depending on yourperspective.
I want to say a lot of theseprotests are for good causes,
(18:55):
depending on your perspective.
But I tell alumni you knowalumni should really know the
campus perhaps that when theywere here there was a lot of
apathy and that hasn't changedtoo much.
And I tell relatives, you knowthe stuff you're seeing in the
news.
You know that's ColumbiaUniversity and University of
Pennsylvania and Harvard.
It's not Penn State, it's notPenn State Erie.
So, yeah, I mean there's a lotof misconceptions that this is
(19:16):
happening everywhere in thecountry and it's not.
Ralph Ford (19:19):
I also want to take a moment to commend you and your
colleagues in the politicalscience department.
I mean, many of our graduateshave gone on to have really
successful careers in politics,from congressional
representatives like Rep GuyReschenthaler, who's well known
to those working in variouspolitical offices.
I believe a lot of theirsuccess is inspired by what they
(19:39):
learn here at Penn StateBehrend.
Robert Speel (19:42):
Yeah, I think so, and actually just next week at
the time we're talking next weekon campus, we have a part of
the Penn State Behrend SpeakerSeries.
This year is Adam Fricassi-Weir, who is the Associate Director
of the Michigan Bureau ofElections.
He's basically the mainattorney for the Michigan Bureau
of Elections, so if there's anydisputes in Michigan after the
election this year, adam isgoing to be in charge of
figuring out what to do aboutall that, and he's speaking on
(20:04):
campus.
So he's another one of ouralumni who have accomplished a
lot.
I also want to add I takestudents to Washington DC every
other year and I'll be doingthat next March and we meet a
lot of our alumni who work inWashington, are quite successful
there, including CongressmanReschenthaler and several other
alumni who may listen to thisprogram.
(20:24):
So I'm really proud of what alot of our alumni have
accomplished.
Ralph Ford (20:31):
We've seen increasing attacks on the
election process itself,particularly around the fairness
of elections.
Do you think this weakens thesystem?
Robert Speel (20:46):
And are there any steps that we can do to
strengthen it?
It's hard, I mean.
People sometimes ask me what doI think is the biggest
political danger facing thiscountry, and my answer over the
last several months has beenmisinformation and
disinformation.
Disinformation is kind ofintentional misinformation being
spread by political actors tofool people, and misinformation
(21:08):
is just people not knowingwhat's real and what's not, and
I think it's a growing problem.
I mean, the internet, you know,supposedly when it began was
supposed to provide moreeducation for people and people
could learn more about politics,but instead it's become a venue
.
It still does serve a usefulpurpose, but it's also become a
venue for misinformationdisinformation so you get people
who make up claims aboutmillions of illegal immigrants
(21:30):
voting, which is just not true.
You get people making otherclaims that the elections are
fixed and whatever, and justnone of this happened.
I mean, yes, every election, youhave a small number of people.
I mean I think there have beenabout 30 people convicted after
the 2020 presidential electionof voting twice.
It's often more frequently thannot.
It was actually Trump voters in2020, from news reports I've
(21:51):
read, and most frequently whatthey've done is they're
registered to vote in twodifferent states and they'll
vote in person in one state andvote by mail in the other state.
And does that happenoccasionally?
Yes, Is there widespread voterfraud?
No, Is there voter fraud to theextent that it affected the
outcome of the election?
Absolutely not.
But people will believe almostanything they see or hear,
(22:11):
particularly in social media,and it's becoming a problem.
So I think election integrity,I think election officials do
the best they can.
Are there mistakes in everyelection?
Yes, I mean local electionofficials work hard, they stay
up late to count the votes andafter every election, a couple,
a week or two later, there areelection officials somewhere
that find oh, we made a mistakeon election night and they
(22:32):
correct it.
Unless the election's withinyou know 100 or 200 votes, it
usually doesn't matter.
But you know they work hard tomake sure the elections are fair
and done in a smooth manner,and I think in the United States
we should trust electionresults far more than perhaps in
other countries where there isa lot of corruption and rigging
going on.
Ralph Ford (22:51):
Another big issue is misinformation and
disinformation.
With social media playing sucha large role, do you think
that's a bigger risk than thingslike gerrymandering or even
political violence?
Robert Speel (23:04):
Well, yeah, gerrymandering is a bad thing I
wouldn't necessarily call it thebiggest risk to this country
and violence obviously is a bigrisk, which is bad, but that
violence tends to be based ondisinformation.
So I mean, I think that's thenumber one.
I mean, from my perspective,that's the number one danger to
the future of democracy in thiscountry is the spread of
misinformation anddisinformation.
(23:24):
You try to vote against peoplespreading false information, but
a lot of people believe thefalse information.
So how do you convince them?
I don't know.
The social media leaders, youknow, including Mark Zuckerberg
at Facebook and the leaders ofTwitter back in 2020, you know,
would try to remove posts thatthey thought were spreading
(23:46):
misinformation, but they've allbacked off of that and in fact,
elon Musk, on what is now X,kind of welcomes misinformation
and actually posts some of ithimself.
So at this point, I don't knowwhat you do.
Ralph Ford (23:57):
Looking ahead to Election Day, do you think we'll
have a clear result by midnight, or will the count drag on?
Robert Speel (24:04):
At midnight.
If you go to bed at midnight,maybe not unless one candidate
is winning by a large margin bythe time you wake up the next
morning at 6 or 7 am, I thinkit's over a 50% chance.
We do know the winner, but Ithink it may happen after
midnight.
So you just have to stay upreally late, which I tend to do
anyway, but I know not everyoneis able to do that.
Ralph Ford (24:24):
Mail-in ballots have been another hot topic here in
Pennsylvania.
Why do we wait until ElectionDay to start counting them,
instead of processing themearlier?
Robert Speel (24:34):
Well, that's state law.
I mean the legislature.
Interestingly and I teach thisto students the Republican
majority state legislature inPennsylvania and Harrisburg
approved no excuses mail-invoting in 2019 because prior to
2020, republicans were morelikely to vote by mail than
Democrats were.
It used to be under theabsentee ballot system.
A large portion of absenteeballots, or mail ballots, were
(24:58):
from overseas military personneland as well as retired people
who maybe had difficulty gettingto polling places, and these
are both groups that skewRepublican.
And then in 2020, covid hit andmillions of voters, including a
disproportionate share ofDemocrats I know I'm not
referring to you individuallyhere, but millions of American
(25:18):
voters decided you know, I don'twant to go to a polling place,
and also, voting by mail isconvenient.
One of the nice things aboutvoting by mail is, in
Pennsylvania, we have all thesecandidates on the ballot that no
one's ever heard of.
You know people running forjudges and state auditor general
.
No one knows anything aboutthem.
If you vote by mail, you canactually, you know, do your
research as you vote and try tofigure out you know which side
to vote for.
So in 2019, republicans passedthe law, but then in 2020, of
(25:42):
course, we had one presidentialcandidate who said voting by
mail is a fraud and there'scorruption.
And you suddenly get thisdivide between Democrats who
support mail balloting andRepublicans who now oppose mail
balloting because of that.
And so the Republicans inHarrisburg have been unwilling
to change Pennsylvania state lawto allow vote counting or even
(26:02):
the opening of mail ballots tobegin before election day, which
is what most other states do.
Other states have the personpower and they open the mail
ballots and they don't startcounting them.
But well, a few states actually, they do start counting them,
but in most states, they'll openthe ballots, open the envelopes
at least they'll have the mailballots and they don't start
counting them.
But well, a few states actually, they do start counting them,
but in most states, they'll openthe ballots, open the envelopes
at least they'll have the mailballots ready to feed through
the machine, ready to go onelection day, and they have the
person power in place to do this.
(26:23):
Pennsylvania could also do that, but it would require a change
in state law.
So Pennsylvania state lawcurrently says that election
officials can't even open theenvelopes containing mail
ballots until election day,which of course, led to a
delayed count in 2020 andaccusations of fraud and
corruption and we found out whowon Pennsylvania.
I think it was on the Saturdayafter the election, which is
(26:44):
when it was announced that JoeBiden had earned enough
electoral votes to win.
I think I noticed in 2022,.
In 2022, pennsylvania countedall the votes on election night
and John Fetterman was declaredthe winner of the US Senate race
on election night.
So I have suspicions thatelection officials across the
state have figured out a way todeal with this probably of not
being able to open envelopesuntil election day, and we'll
(27:07):
probably be quicker this yearthan they were in 2020, but
there are also more votes in apresidential election year than
in a midterm election 2020, butthere are also more votes in a
presidential election year thanin a midterm election.
So it probably will still gopast midnight on election night,
which is why I said you know,if you go to bed at midnight,
you may miss the results.
If you're up at 6 am, you mayfind out the results.
Ralph Ford (27:24):
And now, ob, for one of your favorite subjects, the
Electoral College.
Do you think it's stillrelevant and do you see any
possibility of change?
Robert Speel (27:34):
Without an Electoral College.
If every vote mattered, you'dsee Donald Trump and Kamala
Harris campaigning far more inCalifornia to win the votes of
not only people in San Franciscoand Los Angeles but in the
Central Valley, which is morerural and Republican.
You'd see them both campaigningin Texas, in Austin and San
Antonio and Dallas and Houstonand small cities across Texas.
You'd see them go to Oklahoma.
They'd campaign in OklahomaCity.
(27:57):
They'd go to Kansas City andKansas and Houston and small
cities across Texas.
You'd see them go to Oklahoma.
They'd campaign in OklahomaCity.
They'd go to Kansas City.
In Kansas and Missouri, theywould go to Indianapolis.
They would go to Louisville,kentucky.
They would go to Birmingham,alabama.
They would go to all theseplaces they completely ignore
now because every vote mattersand anywhere there's a
concentration of votes theywould go without the electoral
college.
So the idea of the electoralcollege kind of helps out small
states is just.
It's easy to disprove and in2020 and 2016, the four major
(28:21):
party presidential and vicepresidential candidates spent
over 90% of their time in justabout 10 states each time and
the other 40 states all gotignored and we're seeing that
again this year.
Ralph Ford (28:28):
As we near the end of our time, let me ask you one
final question.
Do you think the US politicallandscape has any hope of
moderation?
Are we locked into thisentrenched two-party system for
the foreseeable future?
Robert Speel (28:42):
In the short term, I think we're going to continue
the way they are withpolarization.
In the long term, I think it'spossible.
You know it depends.
Politics in the United Statesdepends far more on leadership
than perhaps a lot of politicalscientists might want to admit.
A lot of political scientistswould just look at you know
political and economic trends.
But if I think of a certaintype of you know, charismatic
leader who's able to convincepeople one way or the other
(29:04):
about certain issues, that cancause what's called a
realignment in political science.
And, you know, perhaps youcould get a resurgence of a
centrist voting bloc in thiscountry if you found the right
candidate to lead it.
I don't know that we havesomeone right now, but in the
long-term future then maybe yes,and we can look overseas and we
can look.
You know, a lot of Europeancountries are having the same
(29:25):
issues with polarization, but insome of those countries
centrists have been able tobreak through and win elections.
And it could happen here toowith the right type of political
leadership.
Ralph Ford (29:36):
Well said, Rob.
Before we close, is thereanything else you'd like to add?
Robert Speel (29:41):
I'll just add I mean you mentioned at the top
some of my past publications andwork I've done.
But in March of next year theUniversity of Toronto Press will
be publishing a book Ico-authored called the Same,
only Different comparing Canadaand the United States, which is
based on the course I've beenteaching in Toronto for many
years.
Ralph Ford (30:00):
You've been listening to Dr Rob Sp,
Associate Professor of PoliticalScience here at Penn State,
Behrend.
This has been a greatconversation.
I'm Dr Ralph Ford and you'vebeen listening to Behrend Talks.
Robert Speel (30:11):
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
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