Join us for another NFL Draft prop bet rundown as we discuss who we think each of the first 10 teams is taking. Also, stay tuned for our lightning rounds of how many players will get taken at each position in the first round and what the most likely landing spots of the draft's top skill position players are. Will Tyree Wilson go second overall to Houston? The Pros will tell you!
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Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:00
Houston Texans - 0:01:01
Arizona Cardinals - 0:05:13
Indianapolis Colts - 0:07:02
Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) - 0:08:39
Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams) - 0:12:25
Las Vegas Raiders - 0:14:48
Atlanta Falcons - 0:17:04
Chicago Bears (from Carolina) - 0:18:38
Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) - 0:20:23
Round 1 Position Props - 0:22:25
Landing Spot Predictions - 0:25:51
Closing - 0:30:41
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's me Joey pa
Joepi's if he has time to place your bets. We
are just day away. That's right, day away, maybe hours now.
By the time you are seeing this from the NFL Draft,
which we're gonna be covering live on our Fantasy Pros channel.
Don't forget to join us for the Draft seven pm
Eastern on Thursday Live. Did I mention it's live because
(00:21):
it's live, and of course these two gentlemen are gonna
be there with me talk in more Draft Pat Fitzmore
as Matthew Friedman. Today's show, we're going to look at
some of the team perspectives in terms of wagering, so
we're going to talk about what some teams might be
looking to add and where the possible landing spots for
some of these players will indeed be. We're gonna break
that all down for you, and don't forget We are
brought to you by bet MGM, the King of sports books.
(00:42):
Use that promo code Juice to get up to one
thousand dollars in free bonus bets even if you don't win,
So sign up today at bet MGM and gentlemen, it
has been a wild few weeks of speculation of talk,
so there's not too much speculation left. It's time to
put our money where our mouth is. So let'slet's get
after it with the number two pick, because that's all
anybody wants to talk about. In the last few days,
(01:04):
I know, Pat Fitzmorris was on Reddit trying to, you know,
put rumors out there, all kinds of things going on.
But let's start with the Houston Texans and what the
heck they're going to do. Some people are saying it's
going to be Tyree Wilson. If you like that, it's
plus two fifty. If you like the crazy will Have
stuff is plus one seventy five. If you're like me
and you just think it's CJ. Stroud and this is
all nonsense, it's plus three eighty. It seems like young
(01:26):
is locked in here. Pat as the number one guy,
So who is number two for the Texans assuming they
stay there?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Man, all the heat seems to be with Tyree Wilson,
Joe and I just maybe I'm having a hard time
wrapping my brain around that one, just because I think
that's a suboptimal decision for the Texans, although it is
the Texans, so I guess that makes it more plausible.
I just don't understand how jameco Ryans could, like, you know,
with the access he has to the Alabama program, having
(01:53):
come from Alabama himself, conceivably take Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson, who, like,
after will Anderson's sophomore year, if someone would have, you know,
offered me a prop that Anderson would not be a
top three pick the following year, like I would have
bet my you know, entire net worth on that, even
though that's a small amount. But so yeah, it just
(02:15):
doesn't seem like unless NFL teams are so infatuated with
the Kalais Campbell body type, Tyree Wilson to me doesn't
really make sense there. But you know, we've heard that
reported by Lance Zerline, who's really dialed in with the Texans.
We've heard it reported by Peter Schrager on NFL Network.
(02:36):
I'm not gonna bet Tyree Wilson. I'm mildly intrigued by
a long shot Anthony Richardson bet here at about like
plus three thousand, just because I think it's possible that
Richardson goes a lot higher than people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
He would be a project interesting spot to try to
develop him, though that's the only problem. Will Anderson plus
three twenty by the way, for this number two overall
pick Look, Friedman, I want to get your take on that,
because here's my hot take on all this in terms
of the who leaked the test score stuff? What do
you think about the idea that Carolina leaked it just
so they could say to everybody, look, Bryce Young's clearly
(03:11):
the guy we're making the right decision for all the
draft capital and move What do you think of that
it has nothing to do with the Texans altogether? Did
I just blow your mind? No?
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I haven't really thought too much about who's leaking it,
and I honestly don't know if it matters. But on
the topic of the Panthers and Bryce Young, he's now
only minus one thousand in the market, which I know
is like no one wants to lay that much juice,
But like, this number should be minus five thousand. So
I'm not saying, go put ten units on this, but
just like put something on it because this number is
(03:43):
way off because of the Will Levis Reddit thread that
we saw yesterday. I actually think as ridiculous as it
sounds that there is value in Bryce Young at minus
one thousand to be the number one pick, So I
would put a little bit on that. And then in
terms of nonumber two man, I thought that I would
(04:04):
have Will Levis going number two in my mock because,
like it makes sense if you're the Texans, you need
a quarterback, and you can't really you can't let other
teams dictate to you the future of your franchise by saying, Okay,
we're going to take a quarterback at twelve, Like you
just you can't do that if there's a guy that
(04:25):
you prefer out of the three remaining quarterbacks on the board.
But it seems that they just really dislike all of
these quarterbacks so much outside of Bryce Young that they
are going to go edge rusher at number two. And
then with that twelve pick or maybe moving up a
little bit to ten or to eight, they are able
to take a quarterback there. But Will Levis at plus
(04:48):
three hundred, he's someone who you know, like, if I'm
going quarterback, it's Levis at plus three hundred. He's the
guy I would be looking at there. I do not
believe it's Stroud whatever, it is, it's not Stroud, Okay.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Right, Well, I'll continue to stand on this island by
myself and we'll find out what happens on Thursday night.
That should be fun because really we spend a lot
of time on the number two pick because so much
of what happens at two is going to impact then
the next eight picks after, so the top ten could
be really changed out. Now a lot of people think
Arizona could possibly move out from where they are. Friedman,
we have Tyree Wilson at plus three hundred strout of
plus three fifty that he's not going to go there,
(05:22):
probably more looking at Anderson or Wilson. So plus three
hundred at Wilson, plus four hundred for Anderson. Where would
you put right now one of those guys in terms
of the better investment for number three? Arizona stays there?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Yeah, Honestly, if Arizona stays, a lot of this is
so dependent on what happens at two. But if they
stay edge Rusher is where I would personally lean. But
you have gotten a whole bunch of buzz about offensive
tackle Paris Johnson at number three, you know, presumably thinking
we need someone to protect Kyler Murray because this guy
just gets hurt every year. I sort of get it,
(05:58):
but I would lean still edge rush Sure, I think
it is too early to take Paris Johnson at number three.
That feels like a magnificent reach, whereas taking Tyree Wilson
at number three feels like only a slight reach. Like
number three, like that's the journal range for Tyree Wilson.
That's fine, So I would lean a little more towards
Wilson over Paris Johnson. And I'm looking at fanduold right now,
(06:19):
plus five hundred for Tyree Wilson. I think that's actually
a reasonable bet.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I do agree there pat with Matthew's assessment.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I do, and I tend to agree with Friedman's take
on the two pick, where it just seems so suboptimal
for the Texans not to go quarterback at number two,
leaving the edge spot for the Cardinals if they stay there.
I do think there's probably some value on ty Wilson
at plus five hundred, but man, I just feel like
the odds of the Cardinals actually making this pick are low,
(06:48):
Like I think they would be bitterly disappointed if they
made this pick, and there wasn't enough heat on the
quarterbacks for anyone to want to trade up to number three.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Well, whenever it comes to bitter disappointment typically goes hand
in hand with the Arizona Cardinals. Indian Apples cults are
right now up at four. So the consensus for a
long time Pat has been Will Levis. So that seems
to be one of the hotter bets there that one
can make on this number four overall pick if it
either the Colts stay there Will Levis at plus one thirty.
The most updated has Stroud a plus two to ten,
(07:18):
then Richardson a plus three hundred. It feels like quarterback here, Pat,
Could this be the reach for Richardson? Is this the
best of the three wages because you're getting the best money,
or in terms of odds, would you rather just you know,
get it right and get the plus one thirty When
it comes to Levis if he's still are on the board.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Yeah, I mean, I think there's enough of a chance
that Levis isn't on the board with the Texans taking him,
So that's kind of not where I want to go here.
I'm more interested in Stroud or Richardson at those prices.
I do have a modest bet on Stroud right now
at number four?
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Okay, Friedman, If indeed Levis goes to the Texans at two,
that leaves Stroud and Richardson ready to go. Do you
think it's smarter to bet this now and lock in
one of these prices or wait and see things unfold
and been at live during the draft if that change
starts to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, I think it's Richardson or Stroud. I lean a
little bit more towards Richardson at this point, and you know,
thinking a little bit more about the number three picking
about trades, right, I don't see the Colts trading up
to number three, and I think it will be hard
for a lot of teams to trade up to number three.
So I think the Colts at four are going to
(08:26):
have their pick of quarterback, you know, even if Levis
goes off the board, I think they're going to have
a pick between at least two quarterbacks there. I would
assume it's Stroud or Richardson. I lean Richardson at this point.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
All right, let's move on to the fifth overall pick here,
which could be the Seattle Seahawks staying here. We don't know.
They do have a lot of picks, it feels like
they probably will Friedman to me, this is the one
where Jalen Carter really starts to enter into the conversation
plus three fifty of the odds there gon census wise
for him, where it definitely feels like this be a
(09:00):
good start for them to kind of rebuild this defensive front.
Do you agree that that is the pick to make
here or do you see somebody falling like a Tyree
Wilson to this range and you think Seattle would then
go ahead and take hand. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
So Rob Statton, who's a pretty sharp mock drafter and
also like plugged in Seahawks blogger, he is pretty insistent
that Jalen Carter will not be the pick at number
five now, like as sharp as he is. And then
we've also heard from Daniel Jeremiah there have been whispers
Seahawks won't take him at five. Todd McShay has said
Seahawks won't take him at five. I'm still disagreeing, Like
(09:36):
I think Jalen Carter is probably the pick here at
number five. Like I can see how it doesn't happen
if it's like, Okay, we're building the culture. We want
guys who like are good character guys and play hard.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
And love football.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
That doesn't that's not like the book on Jalen Carter,
and so I can see how it doesn't happen. But man,
the market has moved even more plus one hundred at DraftKings,
minus one point fifteen at FanDuel for Jalen Carter to
go number five, it makes all the sense in the world.
The Seahawks need some big bodied guys in the interior.
(10:10):
Jalen Carter is one of the best defensive tackles we've
seen in the draft in the past five years or so.
You know, if not for the character concerns, he would
maybe be the number one overall kind of like rated
player in this class. Yeah, I think it makes all
of the sense for them to take him.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
If not.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
Anthony Richardson is the guy who has gotten some hype,
and I am just not buying the Seahawks drafting a
quarterback at number five so that he can sit behind
Geno Smith for a year or two. I'm just not
buying it, especially since they signed Drew Lock to a
backup quarterback contract. Like Drew Lock is what Andy Dalton
was last year. Like the sign that the team is
(10:50):
not going to be drafting a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Look, I agree one hundred percent with you, and this
is so much smoke right now this time of year. Pat,
sometimes I want to just push all the media stuff
away and I just want to focus on the needs
of the team and also the personality of the coaching
staff and the organization what they're willing to do. Sometimes
I feel like Pete Carroll's one of the guys going
to push the envelope to win, and if so, Jalen
Carter is the pick, and I think it's fascinating that
it's moved to the minus over on Fandle right now
(11:14):
despite all the other stuff that' were even talked about.
What do you think about here at five?
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Yeah, I mean I do have a small bat down
on Carter, but I got it at much better odds
than this. I think it was over plus two hundred
when I got it. I just I think if Will
Anderson falls, he would be the pick over Carter for
the Seahawks. But as noted earlier, I don't think it's
likely that Anderson does fall out of the top three
(11:39):
or four. So, like I think the value though on
Carter has just sort of been baked out considering some
of the rumors that really the Seahawks don't want Carter
the character thing. I don't know whether that's an issue
or not. I mean, the Seahawks have been a little
more cavalier about character issues than some other franchises, guys
like Frank Clark, who they've drafted in the past.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
So that's not really the hang up for me.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
I just think that they might have, you know, maybe
they prefer Tyree Wilson if he's here. Maybe Will Anderson does,
in fact slide in is here. I think the Seahawks
would take either of those guys over Carter. But you know,
I do think Carter's a possibility. I just don't think
at current odds he's he provides any value.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
I agree with that. Yeah, one hundred percent, three for
three on that one. All right, let's go to the
number six pick. Overall, here is the Detroit Lions, first
of two in the first round. For them, they just
moved on from Akuda. It seems like corner is the
thing you want the most. Devin Witherspoon is still holding
strong a plus one hundred, and the consensus is it
as simple as that you think, Pat or I think
Christian Gonzalez a plus six is the better wager investment.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
With every iteration of the mock drafts I've done over
the past month, I've had Witherspoon here, you know, even
before even before they dealt a Kudo away, Like I
think they could have gone cornerback here plausibly and as
far as is with Theirspoon over Gonzales. I mean, what
was it that Dan Campbell said in his introductory press
(13:05):
conference about wanting knee biers with a knee bitters or.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Ankle biters cans Witherspoon.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Witherspoon is a kneecat bier for sure, Like he totally
fits that. This guy is just a dog, and I
think he would be a perfect fit for the Lions.
But let me ask you guys this, I mean, with
the Lions clearly on an upward trajectory, when is the
next time they're going to pick this high in a
draft and Jared Goff is their quarterback right now? What
if Anthony Richardson is sitting there for the Lions, who,
(13:35):
by the way, have three other picks in the first
two rounds and could address some of their needs with
those picks, like I mean, I I put a small
bat down on Richardson here at plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Yeah, and I do think that you think pots onto
something here with you know, when you have this setup
right now currently, maybe you just you know, look to
the future a little bit. It's not a terrible idea,
especially now that Rogers is out of the picture in
that division. Yeah, I don't hate it.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
And I know, like Josh Norris, he's you know, kind
of on this bandwagon. Benjamin Solak, he's also on the
idea that the Lions could take a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
I think they're comfortable enough with goff where they can
just continue to load up with all of the picks
that they have and then just try to run the
division there don't I don't think they're going to take
a quarterback. And here's part of it. I don't think
that the quarterbacks this year are as good as we're saying.
I think they will fall down the board a little bit,
(14:35):
not like last year where we have only one quarterback
in the first round, but I could see multiple quarterbacks
falling out of the top ten.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Better than twenty two, not as good as twenty one.
I think that's that's the general consensus when it comes
to those quarterbacks. Let's get to number seven here and
keep the show on the pace here, because the Raiders certainly,
you know, Jimmy Garoppolo could be looking ahead for quarterback
Richard Sais plus a thousand to go there. They could
also certainly use some offensive line help, but Jimmy Garoppolo
is fragile, I would say in terms of being in
(15:05):
that backfield taking a snap. So Paris Johnson plus three hundred,
Skarnski a plus eight hundred Skeronsky might be a guy
to kind of move around a little bit, maybe change out,
maybe move to the interior. What do you think about
this pick here, because it seems like the Raiders are
a wildcard freedom, which is fun from a betting perspective,
but also though frustrating at the same time.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Yeah, it feels cornerback or offensive line. I'm really not
buying the quarterback situation. They were looking to get up
to one, and then when they couldn't, they signed Jimmy Garoppolo, Like,
I think that's the sign, and so I think cornerback
is a massive position of need. They have no one
who's a starter caliber corner on the roster right now
(15:47):
and then offensive line. You could see how they could
be very desirous for Paris Johnson Junior. In like, this
is kind of the first spot outside of the Cardinals,
which still feels a little bit un realistic, but whatever,
this is the first spot like for months where people
have been thinking maybe Paris Johnson goes here. So either
Christian Gonzalez or Paris Johnson I think would be decent
(16:10):
additions here to a betting card.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Your thoughts on this one, Pat here the Raiders at seven.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
What vexes me about betting the seventh spot is that
you know, what if Friedman's wrong and quarterback is in
play for the Raiders, not that Friedman's ever wrong, but like,
I don't know that the Raiders. No, I don't know
that the Raiders are going to be making the seventh pick,
So you know, if it's not them, I don't know
if there's value on any single player except for perhaps
(16:37):
Paris Johnson, because if it's not the Raiders making this pick,
it's likely the Cardinals. In either the Raiders or Cardinals
could take Paris Johnson. So Johnson at plus three hundred
seems like decent value.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
To me, and I would say even in the trade
down scenario for the Cardinals, Gonzalez or Johnson would also
be on the board because Gonzalez has been linked to
the Cardinals as well and they have the same position.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Needs plus three hundred on Gonzales. By the way, right now,
Atlanta Falcons, this is possibly the first landing spot for
Jon Robinson plus two fifty for him, Nolan Smith plus
five fifty, got Christian Gonzalez plus six fifty right now, Pat,
do you have a certain feel of well, Atlanta go
ahead and just take Bijon and say, hey, let's support
Desmond Ritter in year two with arguably the best generational
(17:23):
running back prospect we've seen in quite some time. Or
do you think they go on the defensive side of
the ball with either Nolan or if Jalen Carter should
fall to them.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, man, I just I don't know if I see
any value with any of the individual options here, Like
Jon Robinson feels irresponsible.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
An edge rusher, you know, an edge rusher seems like
the way to go.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
The Falcons pass rush is terrible and seems like it
has been for the last decade. But which one? I mean,
there's so many possibilities. Maybe even Tyree Wilson could slide
and be here. So they need a cornerback.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
Two.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
They've just released Casey Hayward, and you know they've got
Jeffrey Akuda penciled in as a starter, who, you know,
as Matt Friedman has pointed out many times in the
fantasy end of things, is not a shutdown cornerback. So
now number eight is a total mystery to me. I
don't think there's much value in Bijon. I just I
can't see the Falcons with all their screaming needs on
(18:19):
defense and some on the offensive line two taking a
running back here.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Friedman, with all the screaming needs, what screams the loudest.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I would just pass on all of this. I would
say Nolan Smith is the one who seems the most intriguing,
and you know he's plus five point fifty Bijon Robinson.
The market is just totally tapped out on him at
plus two to fifteen. Okay, let's close out these top
ten here. The Chicago Bears, I know they want Paris
Johnson at plus three eighty. That's of course what they
(18:47):
would love to have. It feels like, do you think Friedman.
That's exactly.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
If he still floats there, that's the pick, or do
you think it never makes it to Chicago over at
high You.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Know what's really interesting, if you look at the market
at nine, Darnell Wright is actually priced ahead of Paris
Johnson Junior. And there has been some serious smoke linking
Darnell Wright because he's like that pure right tackle was
awesome last year, and there's the idea that like they
plug him, they plug him in at right tackle where
(19:20):
they've seen him dominate, you know, just in terms of talent,
maybe actually better than Paris Johnson Junior last year. And
so even though Johnson is you know, has like the
higher expected draft position, this might be one of those
specific like circumstance based picks where you actually would go
(19:40):
Darnell right ahead of Paris Johnson Junior. And so like
in my mock draft, that's one area where I'm struggling.
I wouldn't be betting any of this, Like Jalen Carter,
Darnell Right, Paris Johnson Jr. Like all of their low
their odds are low enough in the market to where
it's just like I'm gonna stay away. But for me,
it's not automatic that it's Paris Johnson. This could be right,
(20:01):
all right, real quick, Pat.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Give me your thoughts on number nine of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
I would echo everything Friedman says on that I would
fade Peter Skearansky as the pick here. I know a
lot of people link that because he played at Northwestern.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Which is right in the Bear's backyard. Yeah, he doesn't.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
They need a tackle and Skearanski's arms are probably too
short to stick a tackle in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Yeah, I agree, he moves to guard. Let's go to
number ten here, Philadelphia Eagles from the Saints. This is
a pick too where we've heard some people say, hey,
the Eagles are ready to go right back and win.
Bijeon's at plus seven to fifty there. I continue to
like Nolan Smith Patt at plus five hundred if he's
still on the board. To me, I think this is
a great fit for them. What are your thoughts here
in terms of investing in the Eagles at ten in
(20:42):
this last of the top ten guys that we're looking
at in terms.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Of the teams, I've got bets here down on both
Carter plus five hundred and Bijon at plus six fifty.
I mean, if Carter slides, the Eagles could stop the slide.
And there's even been rumor about them possibly trading up
for Carter. The thinking is that maybe they could know
pair him with his college teammate Jordan Davis, who apparently
was a good influence on Carter in the Georgia locker
(21:05):
room when they were together. And how unstoppable would the
Eagles be if they did decide to draft Bjon Robinson. Like,
I know they have other needs to especially on defense,
but I mean, if you've got Bjon Robinson, your defense
doesn't need to be great because you're scoring thirty or
more points most weeks. So you know, like it's really
tempting to match up Bijon with the Eagles. Yeah, so
(21:30):
those are my two plays here. I don't know about
an edge guy cornerback I suppose as a possibility, but
maybe they could address that with their second pick in
the first round, because quarterback is one of the deeper
positions in this draft.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Friedman, your thoughts here the Eagles do they go for
it all or they just go play it safe.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Edge and defensive tackle seem like the most likely just
to me in terms of looking at mock drafts and
stuff like that. But I guess say offensive line has
taken a lot of heat recently at number ten for
the Eagle, and Skoronsky makes a lot of sense for
them because he can play right guard right away. You've
got a center and a right tackle who are both awesome,
but both might retire in a year, and Skoransky has
(22:10):
the flexibility to play either of those positions potentially center probably,
right tackle probably, but he could be an awesome right
guard immediately. So I can see Skortsky at number ten.
I haven't bet it, I haven't mocked it, but it's
it's on the radar, all right.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Let's play a little lightning round right here with the
number of players at a position going in round one.
So I want your gut reaction. I'm gonna give you
the number you tell me over or under you're ready
to play, let's go. I don't care if you're right
to play.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
We're playing.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Total number of quarterbacks in the first round. Four and
a half is the number freedman over or under under
hard under Formingdon Hooker all right, fits three for three.
Speaker 4 (22:52):
I think under two.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
I'm not as quite as convinced as Friedman, but I
do think his instincts are probably right on that.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
All right, Okay, let's move on to the next one.
You're a total number of running backs in the first round.
One and a half is the number fits over or
under under? For me?
Speaker 2 (23:05):
I like it at plus money. I can't find a
fit for Jamier Gibbs. That makes sense in the back end.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Of the first round, I agree. I am with the
Bejon standalone RB in round one Friedman three for three. Yeah,
I'll go under, but it's a tentative under. I'm gonna
hate myself with it, like you and your tentative unders.
Let's go to tight ends in the first round. Everybody
loves the tight ends over under two and a half
being selected Friedman over under, massive under. I agree massive
(23:32):
under two for two clean sweep here.
Speaker 4 (23:34):
Fits under its exactly two.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Okay, I think it could be one. To tell you
the truth, because everybody loves these tight ends so much,
they say, hey, we can get one in the round two.
We like Laporto, we like mus Grave and all these
other guys. Wide receivers drafted in round one over under
three and a half. That's the number, Pat, What do
you say.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Under really close call, though, I think that's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
I'm going under. I think it could be as little
as two or maybe even one. I think this class
has started. I think the defensive players, the offensive lineman,
they're starting to pull up the board here. What do
you think here? Friedman over three and a half?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I take under, but three and a half is a
good number.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Okay, I like it. You're giving the books some good
support there. Defensive backs draft in round one, five and
a half is a number. Freeman over under. I have
to say, I'm actually going under on this, and there's
pretty massive positive numbers to the under here, and I
would be betting that that's plus one forty there. What
(24:35):
do you think about? This number? Fits over under five
and a half. Defensive backs in round one?
Speaker 2 (24:40):
I still like over even with you know what minus
one eighty eight or something like that. I mean five
Locks and Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Joey Porter, Deontay Banks, and Brian Branch.
We just need one more of you know, Keeley Ringo,
Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
I like it over one and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
Just to jump in here, five and a half is
the perfect number, So I wouldn't be betting it if
this was like minus one ten minus one fifteen, but
I would bet either side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Okay, plus money on the five and a half unders?
Where you got all? Right, offensive Lineman? Last one here
to do? Six and a half? Is the number fits
over or under? Six and a half? Oh lineman going
in round one.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Man the under, But I'm not convinced, Like I think
we could see guys like Joe Titman, John Michael Schmidt's,
maybe even Cody Mock slip into the first round, so
that I'm guessing under, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Okay, Friedman, your thoughts on the Lineman six and a half.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Okay, when I said massive plus money earlier, this is
the one that I was thinking of. I'm under, I'm
going under, and it's like it's close. I think five
and a half is probably the right line, but you
can bet it like plus three hundred odds under five
and a half offensive Lineman.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
Okay, all right, let's have some fun here at the end.
We're gonna take some of our favorite players in fantasy
and we're gonna talk about our favorite bet for them
to land than the spot. Here. Let's start with Bijon Robinson,
my favorite is still the Dallas Cowboys. I'm just gonna
die on this hill, and that's fine. I'll die. Loan
is plus one thousand. Move from plus fourteen hundred to
plus one thousand in just twenty four hours. Freedman, your
(26:13):
favorite Bijon pick and wager is what? I don't really
have one, to be honest, it's impossible to respected. All right?
How about you? Pat? Do you have a favorite Bijon spot?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Yeah, Eagles at plus I think seven to fifty, and
I'm fading the Falcons as being the heavy favorites to get.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
Him Jackson Smith and Jigba. Do you have a favorite
spot for him? Pat?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
You know Aaron Rodgers is gone. The Packers have to
take a first round wide receiver finally, don't they?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I mean, just salt the wound?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Yeah, I mean I think it's the Packers that's They
are the favorite of plus two hundred ideal landings. They
have no one in the receiver room other than Christian
Watson and Romeo Dopps like?
Speaker 4 (26:56):
That's it?
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Friedman? Your thoughts here on jsn's landing spot. Have a wager? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (27:01):
Actually?
Speaker 3 (27:01):
Interested in the Patriots at plus eight fifty. The Packers
also don't really have a tight end, so they could
potentially take Dalton Kinkaid or Michael Mayer at number thirteen,
and that means Jason slips to the Patriots and number fourteen.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Three more and it's probably not gonna be a Day
one thing. More more likely end of round one, but
more likely as even than that round two. Jamir Gibbs,
for even, do you have a landing spot? I know
yesterday on our FP show in our mock we had
the Miami Dolphins taking them. That's plus one thousand. You
like that?
Speaker 3 (27:30):
I honestly, this is just like throwing up something in
the air and being like, hey, where do you think Alance?
I have no idea, absolutely no idea, but I will
say the Cowboys like they have been linked to running backs,
and if Jon Robinson is gone, it feels very Jerry
Jones to be like, let's just take the next best
running back.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
You get it?
Speaker 1 (27:49):
So I know that's plus six fifty. I haven't bet it.
I don't like it, but I fear it. Okay, do
you fear Jamir Gibbs landing spot?
Speaker 4 (27:57):
Here?
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Pat Look, I think the Bengals are probably going tight
end in the first round. But there is a small
chance that they take Gibbs late in the first round
and that allows them to release Joe Mixon as has
been rumored, And right now that's plus one thousand, so
I've got a small bet down on that. But for
what it's worth, Gibbs has had visits with the Eagles, Buccaneers,
and Bears.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Pat, I know you've been waiting to talk Hendon Hooker.
Where does he land? What's your favorite wager for Hooker?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Come on, oh god, I want to see him land
on the Viking so bad, just because you know, I'm
just like, yeah, yeah, I know.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
The Titans, Seahawks, Lions all makes sense. I kind of
like the Lions at plus one thousand, just because they
have four picks in the first two rounds, and you know,
could scoop him up in a couple of different spots conceivably.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
I like where Pat's heads at because we did talk
about like how long you're going to run this, Jared Golfing.
Maybe you take a project like Hendon Hooker, what do
you think you you work it for a couple of
years and then maybe you pass the torch. If things
go well in development.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Freedman, Uh, I'm not really touching any of the likely
landing spots for Hendon Hooker, and I would say, like
I could see him falling. I like, I know there's
some hype on him, but like I have him ranked
like in the forties or fifty. I think Daniel Jeremiah
has him ranked in that range, just kind of in
like the big board. Like, honestly, if I had to
bet anything on Hindon Hooker, it would be going to FanDuel,
(29:21):
going to the very bottom of the odds and betting
just a little bit on all of the teams that
are like three hundred to one to take Hndon Hooker,
because I think it's much more of like a one
out of thirty two proposition than what we're seeing on
the boards here.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Fascinating. All right, let's close it out on Quenton Johnson.
Where's the best fit for Quenton Johnson? You're sorry?
Speaker 3 (29:41):
One more, one more Hinton. I will actually say something,
Hendon Hooker three hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
This is so stupid. The Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, three hundred
to one in Philadelphia Eagles. There you go there. Matthew
Friedman's contributed in the second round. Okay, in the second round.
In the second round. All right, okay, So let's finish
it out with Quinton Johnston. Now, Friedman, where do you
have him potentially landing? The board has the Vikings, Ravens, Giants, Bills, Chiefs,
(30:09):
and Rams here at the top.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Yeah, Giants feels like a reasonable landing spot. They need
a wide receiver, they need a big wide receiver and
this fits the draft range.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Same agreement for you here, Fitz or you've got a
different team in mind.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
I think the Vikings and the Ravens are possibilities because
I think that's around the spot in the first round
where I could see Quinton Johnson going.
Speaker 4 (30:31):
But man, he is a tough one. He has visited
like twelve.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Or thirteen different teams, all of which could be possibilities,
except maybe like the Rams, who I don't think are
going to be picking high enough.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
All right, there you have it. Everybody, make sure you're
joining us live for the draft, because as these picks
are unfolding, these odds are gonna move, We're gonna be
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we're gonna be breaking things down from the fantasy perspective,
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(31:03):
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see you next time, kids,
Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's me Joey pa
Joepi's if he has time to place your bets. We
are just day away. That's right, day away, maybe hours now.
By the time you are seeing this from the NFL Draft,
which we're gonna be covering live on our Fantasy Pros channel.
Don't forget to join us for the Draft seven pm
Eastern on Thursday Live. Did I mention it's live because
(00:21):
it's live, and of course these two gentlemen are gonna
be there with me talk in more Draft Pat Fitzmore
as Matthew Friedman. Today's show, we're going to look at
some of the team perspectives in terms of wagering, so
we're going to talk about what some teams might be
looking to add and where the possible landing spots for
some of these players will indeed be. We're gonna break
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(00:42):
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So sign up today at bet MGM and gentlemen, it
has been a wild few weeks of speculation of talk,
so there's not too much speculation left. It's time to
put our money where our mouth is. So let'slet's get
after it with the number two pick, because that's all
anybody wants to talk about. In the last few days,
(01:04):
I know, Pat Fitzmorris was on Reddit trying to, you know,
put rumors out there, all kinds of things going on.
But let's start with the Houston Texans and what the
heck they're going to do. Some people are saying it's
going to be Tyree Wilson. If you like that, it's
plus two fifty. If you like the crazy will Have
stuff is plus one seventy five. If you're like me
and you just think it's CJ. Stroud and this is
all nonsense, it's plus three eighty. It seems like young
(01:26):
is locked in here. Pat as the number one guy,
So who is number two for the Texans assuming they
stay there?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Man, all the heat seems to be with Tyree Wilson,
Joe and I just maybe I'm having a hard time
wrapping my brain around that one, just because I think
that's a suboptimal decision for the Texans, although it is
the Texans, so I guess that makes it more plausible.
I just don't understand how jameco Ryans could, like, you know,
with the access he has to the Alabama program, having
(01:53):
come from Alabama himself, conceivably take Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson, who, like,
after will Anderson's sophomore year, if someone would have, you know,
offered me a prop that Anderson would not be a
top three pick the following year, like I would have
bet my you know, entire net worth on that, even
though that's a small amount. But so yeah, it just
(02:15):
doesn't seem like unless NFL teams are so infatuated with
the Kalais Campbell body type, Tyree Wilson to me doesn't
really make sense there. But you know, we've heard that
reported by Lance Zerline, who's really dialed in with the Texans.
We've heard it reported by Peter Schrager on NFL Network.
(02:36):
I'm not gonna bet Tyree Wilson. I'm mildly intrigued by
a long shot Anthony Richardson bet here at about like
plus three thousand, just because I think it's possible that
Richardson goes a lot higher than people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
He would be a project interesting spot to try to
develop him, though that's the only problem. Will Anderson plus
three twenty by the way, for this number two overall
pick Look, Friedman, I want to get your take on that,
because here's my hot take on all this in terms
of the who leaked the test score stuff? What do
you think about the idea that Carolina leaked it just
so they could say to everybody, look, Bryce Young's clearly
(03:11):
the guy we're making the right decision for all the
draft capital and move What do you think of that
it has nothing to do with the Texans altogether? Did
I just blow your mind? No?
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I haven't really thought too much about who's leaking it,
and I honestly don't know if it matters. But on
the topic of the Panthers and Bryce Young, he's now
only minus one thousand in the market, which I know
is like no one wants to lay that much juice,
But like, this number should be minus five thousand. So
I'm not saying, go put ten units on this, but
just like put something on it because this number is
(03:43):
way off because of the Will Levis Reddit thread that
we saw yesterday. I actually think as ridiculous as it
sounds that there is value in Bryce Young at minus
one thousand to be the number one pick, So I
would put a little bit on that. And then in
terms of nonumber two man, I thought that I would
(04:04):
have Will Levis going number two in my mock because,
like it makes sense if you're the Texans, you need
a quarterback, and you can't really you can't let other
teams dictate to you the future of your franchise by saying, Okay,
we're going to take a quarterback at twelve, Like you
just you can't do that if there's a guy that
(04:25):
you prefer out of the three remaining quarterbacks on the board.
But it seems that they just really dislike all of
these quarterbacks so much outside of Bryce Young that they
are going to go edge rusher at number two. And
then with that twelve pick or maybe moving up a
little bit to ten or to eight, they are able
to take a quarterback there. But Will Levis at plus
(04:48):
three hundred, he's someone who you know, like, if I'm
going quarterback, it's Levis at plus three hundred. He's the
guy I would be looking at there. I do not
believe it's Stroud whatever, it is, it's not Stroud, Okay.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Right, Well, I'll continue to stand on this island by
myself and we'll find out what happens on Thursday night.
That should be fun because really we spend a lot
of time on the number two pick because so much
of what happens at two is going to impact then
the next eight picks after, so the top ten could
be really changed out. Now a lot of people think
Arizona could possibly move out from where they are. Friedman,
we have Tyree Wilson at plus three hundred strout of
plus three fifty that he's not going to go there,
(05:22):
probably more looking at Anderson or Wilson. So plus three
hundred at Wilson, plus four hundred for Anderson. Where would
you put right now one of those guys in terms
of the better investment for number three? Arizona stays there?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Yeah, Honestly, if Arizona stays, a lot of this is
so dependent on what happens at two. But if they
stay edge Rusher is where I would personally lean. But
you have gotten a whole bunch of buzz about offensive
tackle Paris Johnson at number three, you know, presumably thinking
we need someone to protect Kyler Murray because this guy
just gets hurt every year. I sort of get it,
(05:58):
but I would lean still edge rush Sure, I think
it is too early to take Paris Johnson at number three.
That feels like a magnificent reach, whereas taking Tyree Wilson
at number three feels like only a slight reach. Like
number three, like that's the journal range for Tyree Wilson.
That's fine, So I would lean a little more towards
Wilson over Paris Johnson. And I'm looking at fanduold right now,
(06:19):
plus five hundred for Tyree Wilson. I think that's actually
a reasonable bet.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I do agree there pat with Matthew's assessment.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I do, and I tend to agree with Friedman's take
on the two pick, where it just seems so suboptimal
for the Texans not to go quarterback at number two,
leaving the edge spot for the Cardinals if they stay there.
I do think there's probably some value on ty Wilson
at plus five hundred, but man, I just feel like
the odds of the Cardinals actually making this pick are low,
(06:48):
Like I think they would be bitterly disappointed if they
made this pick, and there wasn't enough heat on the
quarterbacks for anyone to want to trade up to number three.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Well, whenever it comes to bitter disappointment typically goes hand
in hand with the Arizona Cardinals. Indian Apples cults are
right now up at four. So the consensus for a
long time Pat has been Will Levis. So that seems
to be one of the hotter bets there that one
can make on this number four overall pick if it
either the Colts stay there Will Levis at plus one thirty.
The most updated has Stroud a plus two to ten,
(07:18):
then Richardson a plus three hundred. It feels like quarterback here, Pat,
Could this be the reach for Richardson? Is this the
best of the three wages because you're getting the best money,
or in terms of odds, would you rather just you know,
get it right and get the plus one thirty When
it comes to Levis if he's still are on the board.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Yeah, I mean, I think there's enough of a chance
that Levis isn't on the board with the Texans taking him,
So that's kind of not where I want to go here.
I'm more interested in Stroud or Richardson at those prices.
I do have a modest bet on Stroud right now
at number four?
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Okay, Friedman, If indeed Levis goes to the Texans at two,
that leaves Stroud and Richardson ready to go. Do you
think it's smarter to bet this now and lock in
one of these prices or wait and see things unfold
and been at live during the draft if that change
starts to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yeah, I think it's Richardson or Stroud. I lean a
little bit more towards Richardson at this point, and you know,
thinking a little bit more about the number three picking
about trades, right, I don't see the Colts trading up
to number three, and I think it will be hard
for a lot of teams to trade up to number three.
So I think the Colts at four are going to
(08:26):
have their pick of quarterback, you know, even if Levis
goes off the board, I think they're going to have
a pick between at least two quarterbacks there. I would
assume it's Stroud or Richardson. I lean Richardson at this point.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
All right, let's move on to the fifth overall pick here,
which could be the Seattle Seahawks staying here. We don't know.
They do have a lot of picks, it feels like
they probably will Friedman to me, this is the one
where Jalen Carter really starts to enter into the conversation
plus three fifty of the odds there gon census wise
for him, where it definitely feels like this be a
(09:00):
good start for them to kind of rebuild this defensive front.
Do you agree that that is the pick to make
here or do you see somebody falling like a Tyree
Wilson to this range and you think Seattle would then
go ahead and take hand. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
So Rob Statton, who's a pretty sharp mock drafter and
also like plugged in Seahawks blogger, he is pretty insistent
that Jalen Carter will not be the pick at number
five now, like as sharp as he is. And then
we've also heard from Daniel Jeremiah there have been whispers
Seahawks won't take him at five. Todd McShay has said
Seahawks won't take him at five. I'm still disagreeing, Like
(09:36):
I think Jalen Carter is probably the pick here at
number five. Like I can see how it doesn't happen
if it's like, Okay, we're building the culture. We want
guys who like are good character guys and play hard.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
And love football.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
That doesn't that's not like the book on Jalen Carter,
and so I can see how it doesn't happen. But man,
the market has moved even more plus one hundred at DraftKings,
minus one point fifteen at FanDuel for Jalen Carter to
go number five, it makes all the sense in the world.
The Seahawks need some big bodied guys in the interior.
(10:10):
Jalen Carter is one of the best defensive tackles we've
seen in the draft in the past five years or so.
You know, if not for the character concerns, he would
maybe be the number one overall kind of like rated
player in this class. Yeah, I think it makes all
of the sense for them to take him.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
If not.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
Anthony Richardson is the guy who has gotten some hype,
and I am just not buying the Seahawks drafting a
quarterback at number five so that he can sit behind
Geno Smith for a year or two. I'm just not
buying it, especially since they signed Drew Lock to a
backup quarterback contract. Like Drew Lock is what Andy Dalton
was last year. Like the sign that the team is
(10:50):
not going to be drafting a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Look, I agree one hundred percent with you, and this
is so much smoke right now this time of year. Pat,
sometimes I want to just push all the media stuff
away and I just want to focus on the needs
of the team and also the personality of the coaching
staff and the organization what they're willing to do. Sometimes
I feel like Pete Carroll's one of the guys going
to push the envelope to win, and if so, Jalen
Carter is the pick, and I think it's fascinating that
it's moved to the minus over on Fandle right now
(11:14):
despite all the other stuff that' were even talked about.
What do you think about here at five?
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Yeah, I mean I do have a small bat down
on Carter, but I got it at much better odds
than this. I think it was over plus two hundred
when I got it. I just I think if Will
Anderson falls, he would be the pick over Carter for
the Seahawks. But as noted earlier, I don't think it's
likely that Anderson does fall out of the top three
(11:39):
or four. So, like I think the value though on
Carter has just sort of been baked out considering some
of the rumors that really the Seahawks don't want Carter
the character thing. I don't know whether that's an issue
or not. I mean, the Seahawks have been a little
more cavalier about character issues than some other franchises, guys
like Frank Clark, who they've drafted in the past.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
So that's not really the hang up for me.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
I just think that they might have, you know, maybe
they prefer Tyree Wilson if he's here. Maybe Will Anderson does,
in fact slide in is here. I think the Seahawks
would take either of those guys over Carter. But you know,
I do think Carter's a possibility. I just don't think
at current odds he's he provides any value.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
I agree with that. Yeah, one hundred percent, three for
three on that one. All right, let's go to the
number six pick. Overall, here is the Detroit Lions, first
of two in the first round. For them, they just
moved on from Akuda. It seems like corner is the
thing you want the most. Devin Witherspoon is still holding
strong a plus one hundred, and the consensus is it
as simple as that you think, Pat or I think
Christian Gonzalez a plus six is the better wager investment.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
With every iteration of the mock drafts I've done over
the past month, I've had Witherspoon here, you know, even
before even before they dealt a Kudo away, Like I
think they could have gone cornerback here plausibly and as
far as is with Theirspoon over Gonzales. I mean, what
was it that Dan Campbell said in his introductory press
(13:05):
conference about wanting knee biers with a knee bitters or.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Ankle biters cans Witherspoon.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Witherspoon is a kneecat bier for sure, Like he totally
fits that. This guy is just a dog, and I
think he would be a perfect fit for the Lions.
But let me ask you guys this, I mean, with
the Lions clearly on an upward trajectory, when is the
next time they're going to pick this high in a
draft and Jared Goff is their quarterback right now? What
if Anthony Richardson is sitting there for the Lions, who,
(13:35):
by the way, have three other picks in the first
two rounds and could address some of their needs with
those picks, like I mean, I I put a small
bat down on Richardson here at plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Yeah, and I do think that you think pots onto
something here with you know, when you have this setup
right now currently, maybe you just you know, look to
the future a little bit. It's not a terrible idea,
especially now that Rogers is out of the picture in
that division. Yeah, I don't hate it.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
And I know, like Josh Norris, he's you know, kind
of on this bandwagon. Benjamin Solak, he's also on the
idea that the Lions could take a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
I think they're comfortable enough with goff where they can
just continue to load up with all of the picks
that they have and then just try to run the
division there don't I don't think they're going to take
a quarterback. And here's part of it. I don't think
that the quarterbacks this year are as good as we're saying.
I think they will fall down the board a little bit,
(14:35):
not like last year where we have only one quarterback
in the first round, but I could see multiple quarterbacks
falling out of the top ten.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Better than twenty two, not as good as twenty one.
I think that's that's the general consensus when it comes
to those quarterbacks. Let's get to number seven here and
keep the show on the pace here, because the Raiders certainly,
you know, Jimmy Garoppolo could be looking ahead for quarterback
Richard Sais plus a thousand to go there. They could
also certainly use some offensive line help, but Jimmy Garoppolo
is fragile, I would say in terms of being in
(15:05):
that backfield taking a snap. So Paris Johnson plus three hundred,
Skarnski a plus eight hundred Skeronsky might be a guy
to kind of move around a little bit, maybe change out,
maybe move to the interior. What do you think about
this pick here, because it seems like the Raiders are
a wildcard freedom, which is fun from a betting perspective,
but also though frustrating at the same time.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Yeah, it feels cornerback or offensive line. I'm really not
buying the quarterback situation. They were looking to get up
to one, and then when they couldn't, they signed Jimmy Garoppolo, Like,
I think that's the sign, and so I think cornerback
is a massive position of need. They have no one
who's a starter caliber corner on the roster right now
(15:47):
and then offensive line. You could see how they could
be very desirous for Paris Johnson Junior. In like, this
is kind of the first spot outside of the Cardinals,
which still feels a little bit un realistic, but whatever,
this is the first spot like for months where people
have been thinking maybe Paris Johnson goes here. So either
Christian Gonzalez or Paris Johnson I think would be decent
(16:10):
additions here to a betting card.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Your thoughts on this one, Pat here the Raiders at seven.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
What vexes me about betting the seventh spot is that
you know, what if Friedman's wrong and quarterback is in
play for the Raiders, not that Friedman's ever wrong, but like,
I don't know that the Raiders. No, I don't know
that the Raiders are going to be making the seventh pick,
So you know, if it's not them, I don't know
if there's value on any single player except for perhaps
(16:37):
Paris Johnson, because if it's not the Raiders making this pick,
it's likely the Cardinals. In either the Raiders or Cardinals
could take Paris Johnson. So Johnson at plus three hundred
seems like decent value.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
To me, and I would say even in the trade
down scenario for the Cardinals, Gonzalez or Johnson would also
be on the board because Gonzalez has been linked to
the Cardinals as well and they have the same position.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Needs plus three hundred on Gonzales. By the way, right now,
Atlanta Falcons, this is possibly the first landing spot for
Jon Robinson plus two fifty for him, Nolan Smith plus
five fifty, got Christian Gonzalez plus six fifty right now, Pat,
do you have a certain feel of well, Atlanta go
ahead and just take Bijon and say, hey, let's support
Desmond Ritter in year two with arguably the best generational
(17:23):
running back prospect we've seen in quite some time. Or
do you think they go on the defensive side of
the ball with either Nolan or if Jalen Carter should
fall to them.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, man, I just I don't know if I see
any value with any of the individual options here, Like
Jon Robinson feels irresponsible.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
An edge rusher, you know, an edge rusher seems like
the way to go.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
The Falcons pass rush is terrible and seems like it
has been for the last decade. But which one? I mean,
there's so many possibilities. Maybe even Tyree Wilson could slide
and be here. So they need a cornerback.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
Two.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
They've just released Casey Hayward, and you know they've got
Jeffrey Akuda penciled in as a starter, who, you know,
as Matt Friedman has pointed out many times in the
fantasy end of things, is not a shutdown cornerback. So
now number eight is a total mystery to me. I
don't think there's much value in Bijon. I just I
can't see the Falcons with all their screaming needs on
(18:19):
defense and some on the offensive line two taking a
running back here.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Friedman, with all the screaming needs, what screams the loudest.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I would just pass on all of this. I would
say Nolan Smith is the one who seems the most intriguing,
and you know he's plus five point fifty Bijon Robinson.
The market is just totally tapped out on him at
plus two to fifteen. Okay, let's close out these top
ten here. The Chicago Bears, I know they want Paris
Johnson at plus three eighty. That's of course what they
(18:47):
would love to have. It feels like, do you think Friedman.
That's exactly.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
If he still floats there, that's the pick, or do
you think it never makes it to Chicago over at
high You.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Know what's really interesting, if you look at the market
at nine, Darnell Wright is actually priced ahead of Paris
Johnson Junior. And there has been some serious smoke linking
Darnell Wright because he's like that pure right tackle was
awesome last year, and there's the idea that like they
plug him, they plug him in at right tackle where
(19:20):
they've seen him dominate, you know, just in terms of talent,
maybe actually better than Paris Johnson Junior last year. And
so even though Johnson is you know, has like the
higher expected draft position, this might be one of those
specific like circumstance based picks where you actually would go
(19:40):
Darnell right ahead of Paris Johnson Junior. And so like
in my mock draft, that's one area where I'm struggling.
I wouldn't be betting any of this, Like Jalen Carter,
Darnell Right, Paris Johnson Jr. Like all of their low
their odds are low enough in the market to where
it's just like I'm gonna stay away. But for me,
it's not automatic that it's Paris Johnson. This could be right,
(20:01):
all right, real quick, Pat.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Give me your thoughts on number nine of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
I would echo everything Friedman says on that I would
fade Peter Skearansky as the pick here. I know a
lot of people link that because he played at Northwestern.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Which is right in the Bear's backyard. Yeah, he doesn't.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
They need a tackle and Skearanski's arms are probably too
short to stick a tackle in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Yeah, I agree, he moves to guard. Let's go to
number ten here, Philadelphia Eagles from the Saints. This is
a pick too where we've heard some people say, hey,
the Eagles are ready to go right back and win.
Bijeon's at plus seven to fifty there. I continue to
like Nolan Smith Patt at plus five hundred if he's
still on the board. To me, I think this is
a great fit for them. What are your thoughts here
in terms of investing in the Eagles at ten in
(20:42):
this last of the top ten guys that we're looking
at in terms.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Of the teams, I've got bets here down on both
Carter plus five hundred and Bijon at plus six fifty.
I mean, if Carter slides, the Eagles could stop the slide.
And there's even been rumor about them possibly trading up
for Carter. The thinking is that maybe they could know
pair him with his college teammate Jordan Davis, who apparently
was a good influence on Carter in the Georgia locker
(21:05):
room when they were together. And how unstoppable would the
Eagles be if they did decide to draft Bjon Robinson. Like,
I know they have other needs to especially on defense,
but I mean, if you've got Bjon Robinson, your defense
doesn't need to be great because you're scoring thirty or
more points most weeks. So you know, like it's really
tempting to match up Bijon with the Eagles. Yeah, so
(21:30):
those are my two plays here. I don't know about
an edge guy cornerback I suppose as a possibility, but
maybe they could address that with their second pick in
the first round, because quarterback is one of the deeper
positions in this draft.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Friedman, your thoughts here the Eagles do they go for
it all or they just go play it safe.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Edge and defensive tackle seem like the most likely just
to me in terms of looking at mock drafts and
stuff like that. But I guess say offensive line has
taken a lot of heat recently at number ten for
the Eagle, and Skoronsky makes a lot of sense for
them because he can play right guard right away. You've
got a center and a right tackle who are both awesome,
but both might retire in a year, and Skoransky has
(22:10):
the flexibility to play either of those positions potentially center probably,
right tackle probably, but he could be an awesome right
guard immediately. So I can see Skortsky at number ten.
I haven't bet it, I haven't mocked it, but it's
it's on the radar, all right.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Let's play a little lightning round right here with the
number of players at a position going in round one.
So I want your gut reaction. I'm gonna give you
the number you tell me over or under you're ready
to play, let's go. I don't care if you're right
to play.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
We're playing.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Total number of quarterbacks in the first round. Four and
a half is the number freedman over or under under
hard under Formingdon Hooker all right, fits three for three.
Speaker 4 (22:52):
I think under two.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
I'm not as quite as convinced as Friedman, but I
do think his instincts are probably right on that.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
All right, Okay, let's move on to the next one.
You're a total number of running backs in the first round.
One and a half is the number fits over or
under under? For me?
Speaker 2 (23:05):
I like it at plus money. I can't find a
fit for Jamier Gibbs. That makes sense in the back end.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Of the first round, I agree. I am with the
Bejon standalone RB in round one Friedman three for three. Yeah,
I'll go under, but it's a tentative under. I'm gonna
hate myself with it, like you and your tentative unders.
Let's go to tight ends in the first round. Everybody
loves the tight ends over under two and a half
being selected Friedman over under, massive under. I agree massive
(23:32):
under two for two clean sweep here.
Speaker 4 (23:34):
Fits under its exactly two.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Okay, I think it could be one. To tell you
the truth, because everybody loves these tight ends so much,
they say, hey, we can get one in the round two.
We like Laporto, we like mus Grave and all these
other guys. Wide receivers drafted in round one over under
three and a half. That's the number, Pat, What do
you say.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Under really close call, though, I think that's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
I'm going under. I think it could be as little
as two or maybe even one. I think this class
has started. I think the defensive players, the offensive lineman,
they're starting to pull up the board here. What do
you think here? Friedman over three and a half?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I take under, but three and a half is a
good number.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Okay, I like it. You're giving the books some good
support there. Defensive backs draft in round one, five and
a half is a number. Freeman over under. I have
to say, I'm actually going under on this, and there's
pretty massive positive numbers to the under here, and I
would be betting that that's plus one forty there. What
(24:35):
do you think about? This number? Fits over under five
and a half. Defensive backs in round one?
Speaker 2 (24:40):
I still like over even with you know what minus
one eighty eight or something like that. I mean five
Locks and Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Joey Porter, Deontay Banks, and Brian Branch.
We just need one more of you know, Keeley Ringo,
Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
I like it over one and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
Just to jump in here, five and a half is
the perfect number, So I wouldn't be betting it if
this was like minus one ten minus one fifteen, but
I would bet either side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Okay, plus money on the five and a half unders?
Where you got all? Right, offensive Lineman? Last one here
to do? Six and a half? Is the number fits
over or under? Six and a half? Oh lineman going
in round one.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Man the under, But I'm not convinced, Like I think
we could see guys like Joe Titman, John Michael Schmidt's,
maybe even Cody Mock slip into the first round, so
that I'm guessing under, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Okay, Friedman, your thoughts on the Lineman six and a half.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Okay, when I said massive plus money earlier, this is
the one that I was thinking of. I'm under, I'm
going under, and it's like it's close. I think five
and a half is probably the right line, but you
can bet it like plus three hundred odds under five
and a half offensive Lineman.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
Okay, all right, let's have some fun here at the end.
We're gonna take some of our favorite players in fantasy
and we're gonna talk about our favorite bet for them
to land than the spot. Here. Let's start with Bijon Robinson,
my favorite is still the Dallas Cowboys. I'm just gonna
die on this hill, and that's fine. I'll die. Loan
is plus one thousand. Move from plus fourteen hundred to
plus one thousand in just twenty four hours. Freedman, your
(26:13):
favorite Bijon pick and wager is what? I don't really
have one, to be honest, it's impossible to respected. All right?
How about you? Pat? Do you have a favorite Bijon spot?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Yeah, Eagles at plus I think seven to fifty, and
I'm fading the Falcons as being the heavy favorites to get.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
Him Jackson Smith and Jigba. Do you have a favorite
spot for him? Pat?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
You know Aaron Rodgers is gone. The Packers have to
take a first round wide receiver finally, don't they?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I mean, just salt the wound?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Yeah, I mean I think it's the Packers that's They
are the favorite of plus two hundred ideal landings. They
have no one in the receiver room other than Christian
Watson and Romeo Dopps like?
Speaker 4 (26:56):
That's it?
Speaker 1 (26:57):
Friedman? Your thoughts here on jsn's landing spot. Have a wager? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (27:01):
Actually?
Speaker 3 (27:01):
Interested in the Patriots at plus eight fifty. The Packers
also don't really have a tight end, so they could
potentially take Dalton Kinkaid or Michael Mayer at number thirteen,
and that means Jason slips to the Patriots and number fourteen.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Three more and it's probably not gonna be a Day
one thing. More more likely end of round one, but
more likely as even than that round two. Jamir Gibbs,
for even, do you have a landing spot? I know
yesterday on our FP show in our mock we had
the Miami Dolphins taking them. That's plus one thousand. You
like that?
Speaker 3 (27:30):
I honestly, this is just like throwing up something in
the air and being like, hey, where do you think Alance?
I have no idea, absolutely no idea, but I will
say the Cowboys like they have been linked to running backs,
and if Jon Robinson is gone, it feels very Jerry
Jones to be like, let's just take the next best
running back.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
You get it?
Speaker 1 (27:49):
So I know that's plus six fifty. I haven't bet it.
I don't like it, but I fear it. Okay, do
you fear Jamir Gibbs landing spot?
Speaker 4 (27:57):
Here?
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Pat Look, I think the Bengals are probably going tight
end in the first round. But there is a small
chance that they take Gibbs late in the first round
and that allows them to release Joe Mixon as has
been rumored, And right now that's plus one thousand, so
I've got a small bet down on that. But for
what it's worth, Gibbs has had visits with the Eagles, Buccaneers,
and Bears.
Speaker 1 (28:18):
Pat, I know you've been waiting to talk Hendon Hooker.
Where does he land? What's your favorite wager for Hooker?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Come on, oh god, I want to see him land
on the Viking so bad, just because you know, I'm
just like, yeah, yeah, I know.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
The Titans, Seahawks, Lions all makes sense. I kind of
like the Lions at plus one thousand, just because they
have four picks in the first two rounds, and you know,
could scoop him up in a couple of different spots conceivably.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
I like where Pat's heads at because we did talk
about like how long you're going to run this, Jared Golfing.
Maybe you take a project like Hendon Hooker, what do
you think you you work it for a couple of
years and then maybe you pass the torch. If things
go well in development.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Freedman, Uh, I'm not really touching any of the likely
landing spots for Hendon Hooker, and I would say, like
I could see him falling. I like, I know there's
some hype on him, but like I have him ranked
like in the forties or fifty. I think Daniel Jeremiah
has him ranked in that range, just kind of in
like the big board. Like, honestly, if I had to
bet anything on Hindon Hooker, it would be going to FanDuel,
(29:21):
going to the very bottom of the odds and betting
just a little bit on all of the teams that
are like three hundred to one to take Hndon Hooker,
because I think it's much more of like a one
out of thirty two proposition than what we're seeing on
the boards here.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Fascinating. All right, let's close it out on Quenton Johnson.
Where's the best fit for Quenton Johnson? You're sorry?
Speaker 3 (29:41):
One more, one more Hinton. I will actually say something,
Hendon Hooker three hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
This is so stupid. The Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, three hundred
to one in Philadelphia Eagles. There you go there. Matthew
Friedman's contributed in the second round. Okay, in the second round.
In the second round. All right, okay, So let's finish
it out with Quinton Johnston. Now, Friedman, where do you
have him potentially landing? The board has the Vikings, Ravens, Giants, Bills, Chiefs,
(30:09):
and Rams here at the top.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Yeah, Giants feels like a reasonable landing spot. They need
a wide receiver, they need a big wide receiver and
this fits the draft range.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Same agreement for you here, Fitz or you've got a
different team in mind.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
I think the Vikings and the Ravens are possibilities because
I think that's around the spot in the first round
where I could see Quinton Johnson going.
Speaker 4 (30:31):
But man, he is a tough one. He has visited
like twelve.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Or thirteen different teams, all of which could be possibilities,
except maybe like the Rams, who I don't think are
going to be picking high enough.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
All right, there you have it. Everybody, make sure you're
joining us live for the draft, because as these picks
are unfolding, these odds are gonna move, We're gonna be
talking about helping you, wager. We are the best second
screen experience for the NFL Draft. Don't forget that, so
watch the draft watch us at the same time, because
we're gonna be breaking things down from the fantasy perspective,
from the wagering perspective to help you with all of
(31:03):
your investments across all of those platforms. And don't forget
to like this video, share and subscribe to Betting Pros
and click that little belt to let goes ding for notifications.
And if you drop a comment below on some of
your predictions, somebody's going to win a free premium upgrade
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to chance at bettingpros dot com slash premium that's what
(31:25):
you want to do, and check out betmgm doo and
use that promo code juice when you sign up. That'll
do it for us. But the story of the game
goes on for fits and freedmen. I'm Joey P. We'll
see you next time, kids,
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