July 3, 2025 • 33 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson, and Terrell Furman Jr. as they preview the AFC West from a betting perspective!
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AFC West Coaching & Personnel Changes - 0:00:30
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AFC West Win Totals Breakdowns - 0:14:05
Division Winner Futures - 0:24:27
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and
this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead again,
this time to the AFC Western Division. We're going to
go through the win totals, the big moves, and of
course the big bets we want to place. But before
we get into any of that, make sure you like
this video. Make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. We're
(00:24):
trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this year
and we could do it with your help. I know
that we can, so drop your comments below. What are
you betting on this year in the AFC West And gentlemen,
let's get after it. Andrew Erickson the undertaker, Terrell Furman
Junior here to break it all down and let's jump
in with two feet and talk about some of the
changes here. And there's been a fair amount of them
(00:44):
in this division. Year over year. The Kansaity Chiefs got
to another Super Bowl and lost a Super Bowl and
typically that doesn't bode well very much for those teams
that that happens to. Historically speaking, in the last twenty
five years, but the Las Vegas Raider is probably the
biggest change because they got a new head coach, Pete Carroll,
a new quarterback, Gino Smith, a new running back Ash
(01:05):
and Genty, an other wide receiver Jack Bash and Jeremy
Chin there as well. So, Terrell, let's start with you
on this one. We have a lot of turnover, a
new look Vegas team, new coaching staff, new systems, a
lot of new And I think there's one thing we know.
Typically when there's a lot of new, it takes little
time for things to kind of gel. Do you think
that is what is waiting ahead for the Las Vegas
Raiders in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (01:27):
I think that is perfectly fine with the Las Vegas
Raiders and Pete Carroll here, because Pete Carroll has been
known to build programs from obscurity and bring them into
semi relevance. I don't need them to be a great
team here. I don't expect them to be a Super
Bowl winning team or anything like that, but semi relevant, Yeah,
they could be semi relevant. Who's the best semi relevant
quarterback out there? Geno Smith? Now completely relevant? No, that's
(01:51):
a different conversation, but semi relevant absolutely, and so this team,
I think they could absolutely be semi relevant, not only
in this division but across the league. I think they're
gonna win some games. Think that they made upgrades and
they got healthy in the spots that they need to
get healthy. At the offensive line was an issue for them,
not because of the talent that was there, but because
they were absolutely injured at that spot. Same thing along
(02:12):
the defensive line. They were injured in the trenches all
last season. Now they have what they feel like is
competent QB play. They feel like their offensive line and
defensive lines are healthy and they're better, and so yeah,
I think that this team actually is going to be
able to compete all right.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
So certainly an upgrade at quarterback, an upgrade at running
back with Ashton Genty, and an upgrade at head coach
with Pete Carroll, a guy who you know, whatever you
think of Pig Carrol, he's been a winning football coach.
He's been around the game for a very very long time.
Andrew Rickson, My whole point though, is when there is
a lot of new and a very competitive division, I
do think things are going to be a little tough
and gonna take some time for things to gel. I
think they're gonna be more competitive, but I just don't
(02:48):
know eventually if it's gonna, you know, be too little,
too late. I guess that's the point I'm making. But
what do you think about the Raiders and all this
newness surrounding the team in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 4 (02:58):
I think they might be a fun team to back
against the spread because I think they'll probably underdogs and
a lot of games they'll play tight, they'll be competitive.
But when you look it up and down this division,
how can you not rank or, at least in my opinion,
I think you're ranking Pete Carroll and Gino Smith as
the worst head coach quarterback combination. And that's not to
say that they wouldn't if they were in another division.
You feel so much better about their win total. But
(03:18):
Harba Herbert, who are you gonna take? I'm gonna take
Carbon Herbert Nix and Sean Payton in year two. Maybe
it's debative of Nicks doesn't has a sophomore slump. I
could see maybe Gino and peekerro who have obviously chemistry
from Seattle, maybe they overlap. But Denver Broncos rosters is
pretty loaded on the defense side of the ball. Offensive
side of the ball, they'd add a lot of pieces
as well. And you have the Chiefs who are always
(03:39):
at the top. So I think that they are going
to be at one of these teams that we look
at and say they're a lot better than their record
because of the opponents that they have to face.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Now we know the Chargers want to run the football.
We thought that last year they just really have the
horses to do it. This year, different story. They signed
Nausea Harris as a free agent. They drafted Murray and Hampton.
They also drafted Trey Harris, so hopefully he starts to
fit in sooner than later. Andrew for this Los Angeles
Charger team, I think this is a much better look
in the backfield than it was last year. A team
(04:09):
that certainly is going to throw the ball to and
Justin Herbert. It's not going to, you know, all of
a sudden, become the twenty five hundred yard passing guy.
I think everybody was overrating that a little bit last year.
In fact, he could have had a better year if
maybe Quintin Johnson could hold on to a couple more
balls here and there. That would have been nice. But
looking at what the identity of this team is, and
at least what they desire it to be, this is
a really good offseason. I feel like for the Chargers
(04:31):
to get closer to that. I know the playoffs didn't
end the way they wanted it to. They got embarrassed
by the Houston Texans, But Andrew, I think they can
really compete for this division this year. What do you
think about the new backfield and the new piece at
wide receiver that they're flaunting this year?
Speaker 4 (04:45):
I think the Chargers made a lot of great upgrades.
The identity of a Greg Roman offense is to run
the football, and last year they tried to do that
with not the greatest running back room they had JK.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Dobbinson.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
At the start of the year, it looked like he
was back, but he never ends up playing the entire season,
so he fizzled out. Gus Edwards was the engine behind
this Chargers backfield for too many games. He's not even
on a team right now. So upgrading that to a
stable veteran presence in Najie Harris four straight one thousand
yard seasons and then throwing in a first round pick
explosive O'maron Hampton. I think that tenfold that they've improved
(05:19):
across that backfield. The offensive line is really really good,
and you have multiple outs because if you end up
going in to shootout, well, Justin Herbert kN play in
those types of contests if they're forced to throw the
ball a little bit more so. I also really like
the Chargers heading into the season.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
All right, Terrell, what do you think about this new
backfield at the very least of this Charger team with hardball,
because you know that running the ball, playing defense, that's
kind of his cornerstone.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
Yeah. I think the backfield is fine. That's not my
issues with the Chargers. My issues with the Chargers is
the offensive line. I didn't think the offensive line was
good last year at all. Justin Herbert was getting beat
up and it was very up and down with the
run game at times, and you know that's what he
wants to do, run the flipball. I didn't feel like
they got very good offense line play. I thought the
interior of the offensive line was a very much a
(06:03):
downpoint for them, and they really didn't tackle it how
I would have liked to see them tackle it. We
know that they have the tackle spots good, Joe alt
or Shawn Slater, that's good, but those three in the middle,
they haven't figured out any type of continuity there. And
they bring in Makai Becton from this Eagles Super Bowl
winning guard now apparently, and he's supposed to be this
(06:24):
big thing for him, but he's still very questionable in
the pass game. He's a lot better in the run game,
so maybe the running the running game still is really solid,
but he's questionable as a pass rusher, I mean as
a pass blocker. And so I'm very, very questionable on
what center is going to look like for them, what
the guard spots are going to look like for them,
because if they don't figure that out in a division
(06:45):
that has Chris Jones, you're going to be really, really
frustrated more games than not. So I'm not sold on
the Chargers and that is a big contention point. And
then along with the defense, the defense I think is
very questionable this year.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Well, one thing that's not questionable with the defense of
the Denver Broncos, and it just got better because Jday
Barron was the big first round pick for them, so
arguably the best secondary in the League one good that
that conversation. They did fortify their backfield as well R J. Harvey,
they drafted, they brought in JK. Dobbins, and then they
signed Evan Ingram who had a injury riddle season last year.
(07:17):
So a lot of this looks good in theory. It's
just a matter of does bo Nicks avoid that sophomore slump.
But from what you saw in the off season of
the Broncos, are you encouraged or discouraged here?
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Terrell, I am encouraged. I think the Broncos have a
chance to knock the Chiefs off finally for the division lead.
I think this is going to be very competitive between
those two teams. The Broncos have built the team that
has the identity to beat the Chiefs. You have a
good offensive line, you run the football, limit mistakes, and
you play really good defense and they're stacked around all
(07:52):
over the defensive side of ball. So I think this
is going to be a good opportunity for Bownicks, who
was in the second year in the league, second year
with the systems, second year with this head coach, and
for a lot of rookie qbs, they can't say they
have that Opportunity.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Ericson what are your thoughts on the Broncos. Do you
think they can actually challenge for this division this year
with the offseason moves that they.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
Made, I think that they'll be In the conversation, it's
always tough to knock off the top dog when it
comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, So I know that
they're coming off the Super Bowl loss, and a lot
of trends are that they're not great coming off losses.
But this Chiefs team has lost the Super Bowl before
and won the division the next year with twelve wins,
so not impossible that they could still repeat as division champs.
I will say with the Broncos, going away from the
(08:33):
bow Knicks side of things, when Sean Payton has a
top ten defense, which I think, I think it's safe
to project top ten diver Denver Broncos, even if they're
not top five, probably a top ten defense. If you
look at historically when he's been a head coach, he's
had a top ten defense six times. Those win totals
have been ten to nine, eleven, twelve, eleven, eleven, so
averaging over.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Ten and a half wins per year.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
When he has a top ten defense, and that was
in a lot of seasons that were only sixteen games.
So the Broncos are going to be flirting with double
digit wins, I think, and I think that means they're
going to be in the conversation we saw them, I
think Treu made a good point where the Broncos are
made to beat the Chiefs. They should have beat them
already last year, and then the second game it was
the Chiefs playing much backups. So theoretically the Broncos should
(09:15):
have actually swept the Chiefs last year. I wasn't for
that missed field or the blocked field goal. So yeah,
I think that probably it's going to be a split
between them one and one between the Broncos and Chiefs,
and I think they'll be in contention when it's all
said and done.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
All Right, the Kansasity Chiefs offseason looks like this. Jalen
Moore at left tackle. They re signed Hollywood Brown and
Nick Bolton, so brought back those guys, and Josh Simmons
was the big draft pick. So ericson how would you
grade the Kansas City Chiefs offseason?
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I think it was pretty solid.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
I think they addressed the offensive issues, but they had
across the offensive line. Drafting Josh Simmons thought was a
really good pick, and so far the health reports for
him have been very positive of him being ahead of schedule.
I know this is basically every single injured players ahead
of schedules, so take it with the grain of saltil
we actually see him play actual snaps and they do
have Jalen More Like you said, that is there. Okay,
he's the guy that we're going to use at least
(10:04):
in the short term, with Simmons as the long term plan.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
But I think just goes back to offensive health.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Right.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
Last year, Mahomes didn't have a lot of receivers. They
were either young, inexperienced, or injured most of the time.
So Rashie Rice is back. Hollywood Brown. Yes, not a
difference maker, but as a player that's a full time
contributor on an offense, I think that makes a big difference.
The Chiefs have traditionally rotated so many of their wide receivers.
I think this year they actually have a top three
with Brown Rice and worry that, Hey, these are our guys.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
We don't have to have the.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
Justin Watsons of the world out there running actual routes
that doesn't help Patrick Mahomes. So I think if this
offense is healthier, I think that's going to give them
a pathway to win the division and win a lot
of games. So, even if it's not to the extent
of the fifteen wins they had last year, because they
won all those close games, I think the Chiefs actually
could be better than they were last year but actually
(10:52):
win less games.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
I think that's actually a very astute way of putting
at Terrell. They had so many games where the ball
really did balance their way, or maybe some calls went
their way, and they did win a ton of games,
and we kept saying, man, this Chiefs team feels a
little paper tiger this year. I don't know if the
Chiefs really did enough to make me feel like they
are back to being the juggernaut of the AFC. I
(11:15):
still like the Ravens. I've made no bones about that.
I think they're behind the Bills. I don't even know
if they're the best team in this division. Did you
think that they did enough this offseason to plant their
flag and say, yeah, we still are.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Man, That we were just gets thrown around so loosely. Nowadays,
we had questions about the Chiefs. No, I had no
questions about the Chiefs. I said the Chiefs were like that,
and it didn't matter because the Chiefs were built to
win close games. You have Patrick Mahomes, you have Andy Reid,
They're going to win close games. It's like Mike Tomlin,
where you go out and you believe them in close games.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
You thought we did one show where we didn't talk
about Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Nope, So just like that, I love them in close games.
They're going to win close games and that's just an
edge that they have and it's constantly the case. So no,
I don't think that was a one time thing. If
you put this team in a close game with Patrick
Mahomes behind the helm, I'm gonna like them regardless. But
what I think that I did like here is the
fact of their question mark here is the offensive line.
(12:14):
And I feel like they did a lot better than
the Chargers, who I feel like had the same question
mark along the offensive line. In the offseason, you bring
in more, you bring in Simmons, and you look and
you say, hey, let's develop this into something. Let's make
this something better, because if we can protect Patrick Mahomes,
who was sacked I believe thirty something times last year,
thirty six sacks last year, including eleven in the playoffs,
(12:37):
which had six sacks in the Super Bowl. So that's
something that teams clearly were not able to take advantage
of last year because the Chiefs still had got over.
Their win totals still looked really, really good, and everybody
was talking about the Chiefs. So I'm very, very optimistic
of the Chiefs output this year. Not well in addition
to everything Ericson said about the weapons, but because they
(12:59):
at least addressed the offensive line and they tried to
make strides forward. And if that offensive line looks better
than last year, then it's going to be scary.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
All right, let's take a look ahead and start to
discuss the win totals. Before we do, a quick reminder
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you're at it again, check out Novig at bettingcros dot
com slash juice. Today, let's take a look at the
win totals first for the Denver Broncos. They range from
seven and a half nine and a half to eleven
and a half. Terrell, what's your sweet spot here for
(14:13):
the Denver Bronco win total?
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Yes, over nine and a half wins rather easily here.
I think this is easily a double dishit win team.
The defense is strong, we talked about it. They're borderline
top five. Projecting them top ten might be too low.
They might might borderline be a top five defense. You
have Bownicks, who was in the second year of the
system with Sean Payton, and he's gonna feel better. It's
all gonna come a lot easier to him as a quarterback,
(14:35):
so I think he'll be able to make a lot
better decisions and be an actual game factor for them.
I don't think that he was necessarily a game factor
for me. I think the team has an overall played
really really well last year, but this year bo Nicks
can take that leap to where he's actually impacting the
effects of ends of games, especially when they're down. So
I really like this Broncos team, and I'm telling you,
(14:56):
I think this Broncos team is going to give the
Chiefs every bit of run they can for this division.
May they fall up short in the end, possibly, but
I think they're going to give the Chiefs every single
bit of run they can for the division.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I'm where you are, Torell. I like that nine and
a half as well, and you're getting plus money on it. Still,
I think that's a lock, even if bo Nicks should
regress a little bit of a sophomore and has a
little bit of a slump and guys, you know, adjust
to him. I think that defense is that good that
they get still squeak out ten wins and get above
five hundred there for sure. Ericson, do you have a
favorite win total here for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
I definitely don't like the Broncos as much as you two,
but I still think that the value is taking me
over at nine and a half, especially at plus money
odds at plus one ten. And I laid out the
win totals with Sean Payton when he has a top
ten defense, so that works in his favor and can
mitigate if there is a sophomore slump with bo Nicks.
And we just look at the two matchups they have,
Denver has a chance to really start hot this year.
(15:49):
They're playing Titans and Colts. Those are their first two
matchups of the season. So what we saw last year
with Denver, they killed bad teams, They destroyed the bad team.
So I think right now this is an offseason bet
to make because they're probably gonna start two and zero
and you're going to see this number not be a
plus money anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
So I'm with you guys on the over.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Just for clarity, I like the Broncos. I'm not in
love with the Broncos. There is a team that I
do love in this division. We'll get to them later.
Let's talk about the Kansasity Chiefs. Here, the win total
is at nine and a half. You're getting the over
minus three hundred.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
That's a lot.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
The win total here under nine and a half plus
two fifty. That's probably unlikely unless everything just completely disintegrated.
Then you have the other end of the spectrum at
thirteen and a half, where again minus four to ten
for the under and then plus three thirty for the over.
Both of those are a hard sell for me. So
we're looking at eleven and a half wins here over
under the overs plus one hundred, the unders minus one twenty.
(16:43):
Andrew Erickson, do you have any strong feelings here about
the Kansas City Chiefs win total.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
I'm going to go over the eleven and a half.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
I think it's more than factoring in the close games
that they'll probably lose more of than they did last year.
But it's eleven and a half wins, it's not thirteen
and a half. I'm not going up that because I
don't think they're going to reach that type of win
total after Sun running in all these close games last year.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
So it's going to be an over for me.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
All right, Terrell, you the same where Andrew Erickson is
right now eleven and a half looking at the over.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Yes, for me, it's gonna be the better offensive line play.
I mean, in a down year for the Chiefs offensive line,
there was a bunch of teams that could have capitalized
on it throughout the season and they were unable to.
I don't think that they're going to be able to
capitalize on the offensive line that I think is going
to be slightly better here. So I like the Chiefs
to continue to do what they're doing. I think that
they're healthier at all the skill positions, and they're gonna look,
it's gonna look a lot easier for Patrick Mahomes where
(17:35):
he's going to be able to make the right play
on those third downs and extend drives and put more
points on the board. So I like a better year
for the Chiefs here over eleven and a half wins, all.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Right, three for three here, I'm almost a stay away,
but I think they can get to twelve. I think
that's the number I'm comfortable at. Let's talk about the
Las Vegas eight is here. Their win totals arrange from
five and a half, seven and a half, nine and
a half. That's what you're looking at. The seven and
a half is probably the easiest one to disseminate here.
Over seven and a half wins at plus one thirty
five under at minus one sixty Unlessterrell, you think this
(18:07):
is a really tough year because this division is so strong,
in which case you are getting five and a half
wins under at plus one eighty. That's a big number
if you think they just aren't ready to compete on
the main stage with these other three teams.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Yeah, and I think this is a really competitive division.
I like the over seven and a half wins here
at plus money. I don't think that they're going to
be a horrible team. I don't think they're going to
be a great team. I think they're going to be
right along there. Eight wins, middle of the pack. Eight
to nine feels like where they finish at. And it's
really because they are healthy this year. The offensive line
(18:39):
is healthy, the defensive line is healthy. If they just
figure out what they're doing at the corner spot, and
they lock down what's going on in the corners. I
think that this defense can actually be pretty solid and
be able to save them in a few games. Whereas
the offense, I mean, Pete Carroll and Gino Smith have
been doing this oh we're going to be just okay
thing for a little while now, and so now they're
back together, I think is going to look exactly how
(19:01):
it did. If that offensive line gets healthy and plays
any better, Jeans might be really really good at running
back as well. I think that's gonna win them a
few games. So are they bottoming out at six five wins?
I don't think so. I think they're much closer to
a eight win scene.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
I think they're a seven win team, So I'm gonna
think the under at minus one sixty. But really I
don't like the juice, so it's probably just to stay
away from me. I think they are a solid seven
win team. I think they're going to be competitive. They
might even cover some games, maybe even pull off a
couple upsets. I just think the division is too tough,
and we have to play that many games in your division,
and then you also have to play the Eagles this year,
they have to play, you know, I don't know if
(19:36):
they can necessarily score with the Cowboys if the Cowboys
are actually you know, clicking on offense for one. Some
look at the rest of the schedule too. They got
to play the Washington Commanders two. Who knows. Maybe the
Giants are improved. That defense is certainly much better and
some of the offensive pieces they added in. I don't
like the schedule for them. I like a division they're in.
I think this is an underwhelming seven win team. What
do you think, Andrew, why don't you break the tie?
Speaker 2 (19:57):
I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
Under seven and a half wins. I think it's more
like a six win team. And it's just the division
is really tough, and if they were playing in the NFC,
you'd probably feel much better about that. But you have
to consider that all of the Gino Smith and Pete Carroll,
what kind of success they had was in the context
of the NFC, which is a weaker division or it
has been a weaker division or conference than the AFC
(20:18):
because of the lack of top tier quarterbacks. But now
they're entering a division with three really strong quarterback options.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
With Gino Smith, there now added to the fold.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So I want to like the Raiders, but I think
the best approach, and I mentioned this earlier, I think
they're two more. Want to bet weekly against the spread,
to cover games, to be competitive, to keep it tight. Absolutely,
that's how I think you want to approach the Raiders,
not betting their season long win toll, because I think
you're going to be pulling your hair out, but you're
going to be happy you back.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Them with the points every single week.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Last one here the Chargers seven and a half, nine
and a half or eleven and a half. I'm gonna
be bold here. I'm gonna say over eleven and a
half wins a plus two ninety. That's my favorite spot
right now for this team. I think they're a twelve,
maybe even thirteen win team. I'll looking at the schedule here.
We have a run here where they play the Dolphins,
the Colts, they play a rookie quarterback in the Vikings.
Then they played the Tennessee Titans, Terrell's Pittsburgh Steelers, and
(21:09):
then the Jacksonville Jaguars before their bye week. And I
just think that's a real great opportunity where they can
rattle off a bunch of wins, and I just like
what they've done this offseason. I like how they've addressed
the backfield. This two good monster. I think it's gonna
be very good. I think Herbert's got a lot more
to work with. It's another year with Harball in the
continuity of that system. Andrew, where are you with the
Chargers win total for this season?
Speaker 4 (21:31):
Well, so much money betting on the Chargers historically, but
not last year. Last year was profitable because I bet
this over the win total last year and it worked
out and was basically based on the fact that Harbaugh
wins where he goes. He's a seventy percent win rate
in the NFL, So that's putting him over clearly over
nine and a half wins in a seventeen game season.
And entering last year, the Chargers had four straight years
(21:52):
of failing to hit their win total. Last year they
hit the over, and I think we're gonna get a
streak of over over over. So I'm going right back
to it didn't If it ain't, don't fix it right,
So taking the over so.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Which number though, because the nine and a half at
plus one hundred is is an easier money. I'm saying
that I'm going to double down on it. I know
the nine and a half at plus one hundred, and
then take the eleven and a half at plus two
ninety two and just throw a unit there too. I
so heavy units on the nine and a half and
then just one on the bigger return, just to see
if it hits. Do you think you agree with that approach.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
I think I'm probably just a little bearish on that,
just because of the how good the division is. Right,
so they're dogs to win the division with the Chiefs
and about equal odds with the Denver Broncos. I can't
completly say, oh, they're gonna have more wins than Denver,
So that kind of gets me a little bit nervous.
Where I get plus plus money at over nine and
a half wins, I feel really good about that happening,
(22:43):
and always wonky stuff can always happen at week eighteen.
Guys are resting players, et cetera, et cetera, And then
you're I don't want to have one of those bad
beats in week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Fair enough, Terrell, where do you see the Chargers landing
this year in the win column.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
I'm on the complete other side of you. Both I okay,
not big on the Chargers at all, and I can't
take the over on a win total on a team
who's defense that I'm questioning on what they're gonna look
like this season. I mean, yes, the coach is cool
and all, but you go and you don't have Joey
Bost anymore. So that's something that has to be talked about.
You look at the secondary, and you lost both of
your starting corners in the secondary, both of you actually
(23:20):
lost one of them inside the division, so Fulton moves
inside the division. You lose a Sance Samuel Junior, and
the two corners that you signed to replace them are
Dante Jackson and Benjamin Saint Juics, who were both the
corners that we targeted when we were talking about player props,
when we're talking about fantasy, when we're talking about anything
on the other side.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Of the ball.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
Last season, those were the two corners for the Steelers
and the Commanders that we were targeting in games, and
now those are their two starters. So I just don't
think that this team is going to be good enough.
And I don't think that Justin Herbert is a good
enough quarterback where if you put him in a shootout
night in night out, that he's gonna constantly get win
after win after win. So I think that this team
is going to be a lot close Raiders than they
(24:00):
are the Chiefs. So I like the under here, all right, So.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
We'll disagree there. I don't think Joey Bosa is too
much of a loss. I mean, twenty twenty two and
twenty twenty three can play to combined fourteen games. Last
year he played fourteen games when we had five sacks.
I don't know. I just think Joey Bosa is at
least some Yeah, it's fine. He's just overrated and he's
always hurt, and you know, I want healthy place.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Is it you hurt right now?
Speaker 1 (24:22):
He is, right, yeah, yeah, he has hurt already, so
you know, but that's the Bills problem now, not ours.
Let's get to the division winners, and I think Terrell
might have showed his hand here. But let's take a
look at the board. First. The Chiefs are at the
top of it, minus one fifteen, the Chargers at plus
three ten. I think everybody knows that's where I'm going,
So give me the Chargers there, the Broncos at plus
three forty, and then the Raiders at plus twelve hundred Terrell,
(24:43):
the board is yours pick the winner of the AFC West.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Well, for value, I'll just take the Broncos. I think
that is a good chance that is the Chiefs, and
I have a better way to play it, and I'll
talk about that a little bit later, But I'm completely
sold on the charge. Like well, I'm sold on the
Chargers not being relevant for this division. I truly think
that they are a lot closer and they're going to
be battling for fourth place with the Raiders, who are
not going to be a bad team. And I'm not
(25:07):
saying that either one of these two teams are going
to be a bad team. I think the loser of
this division has eight seven wins here, and so ultimately,
I just don't think that they have the defense, clearly
not the defense to the level of the Broncos. I
think they could lose both of the games against the Broncos.
They haven't had any type of consistency at all with
the Chiefs, So I just don't think that they're one
of the top two teams in the division, and so
(25:28):
it's value play Broncos here. But I have a better
way to play it and I'll save it for the end, all.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
Right, Andrew Erickson. So we got one for the value,
one for the Chargers. Where are you going?
Speaker 4 (25:41):
She's taking the layup Chiefs one division nine years in
a row, win every year that Mahomes is a starter,
So minus one fifteen for it's been a lock since
the last nine years. So until them, until somebod else happens,
I'll keep being the Chiefs to win the division.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
Look, as a Patriots fan, you should know this. Remember
when you know they started losing super Bowls and all
of a sudden that started plucking around there, you know,
those kind of annoying years. I'm just saying, I think
we're in that Chiefs window.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Right.
Speaker 4 (26:05):
They would always win on these weird tie breakers and
be a three way tie, the AFC East and the
Jets and sneaking the Patriots missed the playoffs because they
want to let they went eleven and five one year
and they.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
Missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
I'm just saying, I guess I Look, I've never been
the guy that been against the Chiefs after that Super
Bowl last year. The age of that team where.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
They did it, They've already done this though, they've been
down this road. They lost the Super Bowl already, and
they came back and won the division and.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Lost an embarrassing fashion.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
They lost in embarrassing fashion and came back in one two.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
They did.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
But at the time that division was an absolute joke.
It is not a joke anymore. You have one of
the best defenses in that division. You've got a young
quarterback in Justin Herbert and a very good head coach
in Hardball on the other team. And then you've got
a guy in Pete Carroll who's been around the league
for you know, I don't know, seven hundred years, who
knows what he's doing. The Chiefs are like a lot
of great dynasties, which if you go back to the
forty nine Ers dynasty, absolutely great team, obviously, some of
(26:58):
the most talent you'll ever see on a roster. They
also benefited from a weak division, so to the Patriots,
you know, sort of the seventies Steelers. A lot of
these teams that are dynasties, they benefit from weak divisions,
and I just don't think the division as nearly as
weak as it used to be. And they were teams
last year that really took the Chiefs to their limit.
The Texans did so, the Broncos do it. I just
(27:18):
think it's going to be a much different season for them,
and I still am not sure what that offense is
going to look like with the pieces it currently has.
But that's for everybody else in the comments to decide
and get their takes let them fly on YouTube. Let's
get to our last segment here, our favorite bets and
our wildcard crazy bets for the AFC West. I'm going
to start things off here. I'm gonna take this pretty
(27:40):
easy here.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
I think the.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Chargers make the playoffs. I think the Broncos make the playoffs.
You're getting both of those easy money minus one twenty
four for the Chargers minus one fourteen for the Broncos. Again,
I just like easy money, so I'm going to take
the lay up there. Four thousand passing yards for Justin Herbert, Yes, please,
you're getting two to one on this. I know they're
gonna run the football. He's still going to have over
four thousand passing This is twenty twenty five NFL so
(28:02):
this is just about him staying healthy. Ap NFL Offensive
Rookie of the Year for twenty twenty five Ash and
Jendy can get it plus two seventy. I think that's
a good look there. I think that's worth the investment. Torell,
you teased us earlier with one of your favorite ways
to approach this division. So let's unleash the Beast here.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Yeah, let's just go ahead and do it top two.
Any order, doesn't matter what order. Give me the Chiefs
and the Broncos to be one two in the division.
It doesn't matter what order. It could be Broncos Chiefs,
it could be Chiefs Broncos. But I'm convinced that I
don't think that the Chargers are in it for this division.
I'm sorry, it's too many question marks on the defensive
side of the ball. And I am not big into
Justin Herbert as everybody else is. You said, Justin Herbert
(28:40):
a young quarterback. He's five years in. This is year
six for him. Like, at this point, what point do
you become a veteran and when do we start giving
you some more expectations of getting the job done. I
understand you've been heard a couple of years, but that's
that's the nature of the Beast. You gotta figure out
how to get it done and I just don't have
the faith that if they're in a close game, if
they're in shootouts, and he's got to constantly be perfect,
(29:02):
constantly keeps the offense going every single time with the
defense that isn't gonna give you any breaks. And hopefully
we'll see if Harball can coach this defense up where
maybe this is a non starter and they take guys
like Saint just who I was absolutely flaming when he
was on the Washington Commanders and make him into a
really good starting corner for them. But for that, I
just don't think that they're gonna be in it. I
(29:23):
really don't. So that's where I'm just putting everything at.
I think this is a very very good bet where
I feel very confident that no matter how this division
pans out, it's gonna be one and two at the top.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Well, he's about the same age Justin Herbert as Tyler Shuck,
I'm pretty sure, So just putting that out there, he's
twenty six years old, Justin Herbert going on twenty seven.
I am, I don't remember.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
Comparisons to Tyler Shuck is a good thing.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Man, I'm saying. You're saying he's been in the league
so long. He's just twenty six. He came into the
league when he was twenty two. He did set a
rookie passing record for yards. He did throw for five
thousand yards the next season, forty seven hundred the year
after that, before they bought him out in twenty twenty
three with a terrible season and he was hurt and
the coach got fired. And last year was the first
year in new system. He had thirty eight seventy and
(30:07):
again the touchdown total was lame, but he didn't have
a lot of great weapons. He took Keenan Allen away
from him. Quentin Johnson stings. You know, he was relying
basically on a rookie Lad McConkie, who was great. I
love Laden McConkie, but Lad mccakie, Trey Harris, these running backs,
I don't know. I think the Chargers are going to
be a lot to handle. Let's get Andrew Erickson's take
here some of his fun bets. What do you have
here for the AFC West.
Speaker 4 (30:29):
Andrew, Yeah, So I'm backing the Chargers as well. That's
why I wore my powder blue so Chargers over a
nine and a half wins plus money I'm going to
go with the lock that's been the lock for the
last nine years, Chiefs to win the division at minus
one fifteen, I will say with the Chief's bet. I
don't know if I want to bet this right now,
because if you look at I always try to look
at some of these early schedules. So Week one, they
(30:50):
play in Brazil against the Chargers, weird game. Could the
Chiefs lose that game? I think it's possible. We saw
last year when they played in Brazil a lot of
weird things happened. There were guys that were wide open,
guys were slipping. So I think that there's some mystery,
a mystique to that game that could result in something
kind of weird happening. So and then the second game
they play is against the Eagles, right, so they start
(31:12):
one in one. I think you can get a better
record or a better number on them to win the
division that at minus one fifteen, you might even get
that plus money if the Broncos, like I said, they
start out to to Oh, you're gonna see the odds shift.
So that's going to keep in mind when it comes
to the player props. I think that this one really
stuck out to me. And it's not a player that
I particularly like. I just think the number is it's
just so low. Naji Harris over five hundred and twenty
(31:34):
five rushing yards. He has four straight seasons of one
thousand yards. The projections for betting pros have him going
over this number. And this is not a high number
to pass some of the guys that hit this number
last year that I honestly could not believe. But I
actually had to look and see Antonio Gibson, Travis etn
Jerome Ford like that. That's what Najierras has to do
(31:54):
in a run first offense with the Gregs. It's really
not a high bar to pass, even with Omaron Hampton
also there.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
So I just think the number is just too low.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
And then my last one, my fun one is Patrick
Mahomes to leave the NFL in passing touchdowns. Last year,
only Joe Burrow had more red zone pass attempts than
he did. He was second in the NFL red zone
pass attempts, second and expected passing touchdowns last season. He
was third neck category. In twenty twenty three, when Tom
Brady turned thirty, he threw fifty touchdowns. Mahmes it's gonna
(32:24):
be thirty this year. Maybe we have another fifty touchdown
season coming.
Speaker 1 (32:27):
Maybe maybe, And don't forget everybody. If you're gonna betting
this year, make sure you're using the Betting Pros app.
Download it today, it's free. You can sink your sportsbooks
for free too, and you could use tools like the
Betting Pros Picktracker and of course the Picktracker. It sinks
to your sports book, the tailor tyali which picks will
hit for you and which have missed. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can use real time tracking to determine which
(32:49):
place to make and which ones to fade. So track
your picks today on Betting Pros use the Picktracker, or
go to Betting pros dot com slash picktracking, or just
use the Betting Pros app right now. Download that boy
today and use the tools to bet smarter and not harder.
Drop your comments below to what's your favorite bet in
the AFC Western Division? Is it a team total? Is
it the Chargers to win? Sure it is, whatever it is.
(33:12):
Drop your comments below let us know what you think,
and of course, subscribe to the YouTube channel like this video.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Terrell and Andrew. I'm Joey P.
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 5 (33:24):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and
this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead again,
this time to the AFC Western Division. We're going to
go through the win totals, the big moves, and of
course the big bets we want to place. But before
we get into any of that, make sure you like
this video. Make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. We're
(00:24):
trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers this year
and we could do it with your help. I know
that we can, so drop your comments below. What are
you betting on this year in the AFC West And gentlemen,
let's get after it. Andrew Erickson the undertaker, Terrell Furman
Junior here to break it all down and let's jump
in with two feet and talk about some of the
changes here. And there's been a fair amount of them
(00:44):
in this division. Year over year. The Kansaity Chiefs got
to another Super Bowl and lost a Super Bowl and
typically that doesn't bode well very much for those teams
that that happens to. Historically speaking, in the last twenty
five years, but the Las Vegas Raider is probably the
biggest change because they got a new head coach, Pete Carroll,
a new quarterback, Gino Smith, a new running back Ash
(01:05):
and Genty, an other wide receiver Jack Bash and Jeremy
Chin there as well. So, Terrell, let's start with you
on this one. We have a lot of turnover, a
new look Vegas team, new coaching staff, new systems, a
lot of new And I think there's one thing we know.
Typically when there's a lot of new, it takes little
time for things to kind of gel. Do you think
that is what is waiting ahead for the Las Vegas
Raiders in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (01:27):
I think that is perfectly fine with the Las Vegas
Raiders and Pete Carroll here, because Pete Carroll has been
known to build programs from obscurity and bring them into
semi relevance. I don't need them to be a great
team here. I don't expect them to be a Super
Bowl winning team or anything like that, but semi relevant, Yeah,
they could be semi relevant. Who's the best semi relevant
quarterback out there? Geno Smith? Now completely relevant? No, that's
(01:51):
a different conversation, but semi relevant absolutely, and so this team,
I think they could absolutely be semi relevant, not only
in this division but across the league. I think they're
gonna win some games. Think that they made upgrades and
they got healthy in the spots that they need to
get healthy. At the offensive line was an issue for them,
not because of the talent that was there, but because
they were absolutely injured at that spot. Same thing along
(02:12):
the defensive line. They were injured in the trenches all
last season. Now they have what they feel like is
competent QB play. They feel like their offensive line and
defensive lines are healthy and they're better, and so yeah,
I think that this team actually is going to be
able to compete all right.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
So certainly an upgrade at quarterback, an upgrade at running
back with Ashton Genty, and an upgrade at head coach
with Pete Carroll, a guy who you know, whatever you
think of Pig Carrol, he's been a winning football coach.
He's been around the game for a very very long time.
Andrew Rickson, My whole point though, is when there is
a lot of new and a very competitive division, I
do think things are going to be a little tough
and gonna take some time for things to gel. I
think they're gonna be more competitive, but I just don't
(02:48):
know eventually if it's gonna, you know, be too little,
too late. I guess that's the point I'm making. But
what do you think about the Raiders and all this
newness surrounding the team in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 4 (02:58):
I think they might be a fun team to back
against the spread because I think they'll probably underdogs and
a lot of games they'll play tight, they'll be competitive.
But when you look it up and down this division,
how can you not rank or, at least in my opinion,
I think you're ranking Pete Carroll and Gino Smith as
the worst head coach quarterback combination. And that's not to
say that they wouldn't if they were in another division.
You feel so much better about their win total. But
(03:18):
Harba Herbert, who are you gonna take? I'm gonna take
Carbon Herbert Nix and Sean Payton in year two. Maybe
it's debative of Nicks doesn't has a sophomore slump. I
could see maybe Gino and peekerro who have obviously chemistry
from Seattle, maybe they overlap. But Denver Broncos rosters is
pretty loaded on the defense side of the ball. Offensive
side of the ball, they'd add a lot of pieces
as well. And you have the Chiefs who are always
(03:39):
at the top. So I think that they are going
to be at one of these teams that we look
at and say they're a lot better than their record
because of the opponents that they have to face.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Now we know the Chargers want to run the football.
We thought that last year they just really have the
horses to do it. This year, different story. They signed
Nausea Harris as a free agent. They drafted Murray and Hampton.
They also drafted Trey Harris, so hopefully he starts to
fit in sooner than later. Andrew for this Los Angeles
Charger team, I think this is a much better look
in the backfield than it was last year. A team
(04:09):
that certainly is going to throw the ball to and
Justin Herbert. It's not going to, you know, all of
a sudden, become the twenty five hundred yard passing guy.
I think everybody was overrating that a little bit last year.
In fact, he could have had a better year if
maybe Quintin Johnson could hold on to a couple more
balls here and there. That would have been nice. But
looking at what the identity of this team is, and
at least what they desire it to be, this is
a really good offseason. I feel like for the Chargers
(04:31):
to get closer to that. I know the playoffs didn't
end the way they wanted it to. They got embarrassed
by the Houston Texans, But Andrew, I think they can
really compete for this division this year. What do you
think about the new backfield and the new piece at
wide receiver that they're flaunting this year?
Speaker 4 (04:45):
I think the Chargers made a lot of great upgrades.
The identity of a Greg Roman offense is to run
the football, and last year they tried to do that
with not the greatest running back room they had JK.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Dobbinson.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
At the start of the year, it looked like he
was back, but he never ends up playing the entire season,
so he fizzled out. Gus Edwards was the engine behind
this Chargers backfield for too many games. He's not even
on a team right now. So upgrading that to a
stable veteran presence in Najie Harris four straight one thousand
yard seasons and then throwing in a first round pick
explosive O'maron Hampton. I think that tenfold that they've improved
(05:19):
across that backfield. The offensive line is really really good,
and you have multiple outs because if you end up
going in to shootout, well, Justin Herbert kN play in
those types of contests if they're forced to throw the
ball a little bit more so. I also really like
the Chargers heading into the season.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
All right, Terrell, what do you think about this new
backfield at the very least of this Charger team with hardball,
because you know that running the ball, playing defense, that's
kind of his cornerstone.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
Yeah. I think the backfield is fine. That's not my
issues with the Chargers. My issues with the Chargers is
the offensive line. I didn't think the offensive line was
good last year at all. Justin Herbert was getting beat
up and it was very up and down with the
run game at times, and you know that's what he
wants to do, run the flipball. I didn't feel like
they got very good offense line play. I thought the
interior of the offensive line was a very much a
(06:03):
downpoint for them, and they really didn't tackle it how
I would have liked to see them tackle it. We
know that they have the tackle spots good, Joe alt
or Shawn Slater, that's good, but those three in the middle,
they haven't figured out any type of continuity there. And
they bring in Makai Becton from this Eagles Super Bowl
winning guard now apparently, and he's supposed to be this
(06:24):
big thing for him, but he's still very questionable in
the pass game. He's a lot better in the run game,
so maybe the running the running game still is really solid,
but he's questionable as a pass rusher, I mean as
a pass blocker. And so I'm very, very questionable on
what center is going to look like for them, what
the guard spots are going to look like for them,
because if they don't figure that out in a division
(06:45):
that has Chris Jones, you're going to be really, really
frustrated more games than not. So I'm not sold on
the Chargers and that is a big contention point. And
then along with the defense, the defense I think is
very questionable this year.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Well, one thing that's not questionable with the defense of
the Denver Broncos, and it just got better because Jday
Barron was the big first round pick for them, so
arguably the best secondary in the League one good that
that conversation. They did fortify their backfield as well R J. Harvey,
they drafted, they brought in JK. Dobbins, and then they
signed Evan Ingram who had a injury riddle season last year.
(07:17):
So a lot of this looks good in theory. It's
just a matter of does bo Nicks avoid that sophomore slump.
But from what you saw in the off season of
the Broncos, are you encouraged or discouraged here?
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Terrell, I am encouraged. I think the Broncos have a
chance to knock the Chiefs off finally for the division lead.
I think this is going to be very competitive between
those two teams. The Broncos have built the team that
has the identity to beat the Chiefs. You have a
good offensive line, you run the football, limit mistakes, and
you play really good defense and they're stacked around all
(07:52):
over the defensive side of ball. So I think this
is going to be a good opportunity for Bownicks, who
was in the second year in the league, second year
with the systems, second year with this head coach, and
for a lot of rookie qbs, they can't say they
have that Opportunity.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Ericson what are your thoughts on the Broncos. Do you
think they can actually challenge for this division this year
with the offseason moves that they.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
Made, I think that they'll be In the conversation, it's
always tough to knock off the top dog when it
comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, So I know that
they're coming off the Super Bowl loss, and a lot
of trends are that they're not great coming off losses.
But this Chiefs team has lost the Super Bowl before
and won the division the next year with twelve wins,
so not impossible that they could still repeat as division champs.
I will say with the Broncos, going away from the
(08:33):
bow Knicks side of things, when Sean Payton has a
top ten defense, which I think, I think it's safe
to project top ten diver Denver Broncos, even if they're
not top five, probably a top ten defense. If you
look at historically when he's been a head coach, he's
had a top ten defense six times. Those win totals
have been ten to nine, eleven, twelve, eleven, eleven, so
averaging over.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Ten and a half wins per year.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
When he has a top ten defense, and that was
in a lot of seasons that were only sixteen games.
So the Broncos are going to be flirting with double
digit wins, I think, and I think that means they're
going to be in the conversation we saw them, I
think Treu made a good point where the Broncos are
made to beat the Chiefs. They should have beat them
already last year, and then the second game it was
the Chiefs playing much backups. So theoretically the Broncos should
(09:15):
have actually swept the Chiefs last year. I wasn't for
that missed field or the blocked field goal. So yeah,
I think that probably it's going to be a split
between them one and one between the Broncos and Chiefs,
and I think they'll be in contention when it's all
said and done.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
All Right, the Kansasity Chiefs offseason looks like this. Jalen
Moore at left tackle. They re signed Hollywood Brown and
Nick Bolton, so brought back those guys, and Josh Simmons
was the big draft pick. So ericson how would you
grade the Kansas City Chiefs offseason?
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I think it was pretty solid.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
I think they addressed the offensive issues, but they had
across the offensive line. Drafting Josh Simmons thought was a
really good pick, and so far the health reports for
him have been very positive of him being ahead of schedule.
I know this is basically every single injured players ahead
of schedules, so take it with the grain of saltil
we actually see him play actual snaps and they do
have Jalen More Like you said, that is there. Okay,
he's the guy that we're going to use at least
(10:04):
in the short term, with Simmons as the long term plan.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
But I think just goes back to offensive health.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Right.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
Last year, Mahomes didn't have a lot of receivers. They
were either young, inexperienced, or injured most of the time.
So Rashie Rice is back. Hollywood Brown. Yes, not a
difference maker, but as a player that's a full time
contributor on an offense, I think that makes a big difference.
The Chiefs have traditionally rotated so many of their wide receivers.
I think this year they actually have a top three
with Brown Rice and worry that, Hey, these are our guys.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
We don't have to have the.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
Justin Watsons of the world out there running actual routes
that doesn't help Patrick Mahomes. So I think if this
offense is healthier, I think that's going to give them
a pathway to win the division and win a lot
of games. So, even if it's not to the extent
of the fifteen wins they had last year, because they
won all those close games, I think the Chiefs actually
could be better than they were last year but actually
(10:52):
win less games.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
I think that's actually a very astute way of putting
at Terrell. They had so many games where the ball
really did balance their way, or maybe some calls went
their way, and they did win a ton of games,
and we kept saying, man, this Chiefs team feels a
little paper tiger this year. I don't know if the
Chiefs really did enough to make me feel like they
are back to being the juggernaut of the AFC. I
(11:15):
still like the Ravens. I've made no bones about that.
I think they're behind the Bills. I don't even know
if they're the best team in this division. Did you
think that they did enough this offseason to plant their
flag and say, yeah, we still are.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Man, That we were just gets thrown around so loosely. Nowadays,
we had questions about the Chiefs. No, I had no
questions about the Chiefs. I said the Chiefs were like that,
and it didn't matter because the Chiefs were built to
win close games. You have Patrick Mahomes, you have Andy Reid,
They're going to win close games. It's like Mike Tomlin,
where you go out and you believe them in close games.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
You thought we did one show where we didn't talk
about Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Nope, So just like that, I love them in close games.
They're going to win close games and that's just an
edge that they have and it's constantly the case. So no,
I don't think that was a one time thing. If
you put this team in a close game with Patrick
Mahomes behind the helm, I'm gonna like them regardless. But
what I think that I did like here is the
fact of their question mark here is the offensive line.
(12:14):
And I feel like they did a lot better than
the Chargers, who I feel like had the same question
mark along the offensive line. In the offseason, you bring
in more, you bring in Simmons, and you look and
you say, hey, let's develop this into something. Let's make
this something better, because if we can protect Patrick Mahomes,
who was sacked I believe thirty something times last year,
thirty six sacks last year, including eleven in the playoffs,
(12:37):
which had six sacks in the Super Bowl. So that's
something that teams clearly were not able to take advantage
of last year because the Chiefs still had got over.
Their win totals still looked really, really good, and everybody
was talking about the Chiefs. So I'm very, very optimistic
of the Chiefs output this year. Not well in addition
to everything Ericson said about the weapons, but because they
(12:59):
at least addressed the offensive line and they tried to
make strides forward. And if that offensive line looks better
than last year, then it's going to be scary.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
All right, let's take a look ahead and start to
discuss the win totals. Before we do, a quick reminder
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you're at it again, check out Novig at bettingcros dot
com slash juice. Today, let's take a look at the
win totals first for the Denver Broncos. They range from
seven and a half nine and a half to eleven
and a half. Terrell, what's your sweet spot here for
(14:13):
the Denver Bronco win total?
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Yes, over nine and a half wins rather easily here.
I think this is easily a double dishit win team.
The defense is strong, we talked about it. They're borderline
top five. Projecting them top ten might be too low.
They might might borderline be a top five defense. You
have Bownicks, who was in the second year of the
system with Sean Payton, and he's gonna feel better. It's
all gonna come a lot easier to him as a quarterback,
(14:35):
so I think he'll be able to make a lot
better decisions and be an actual game factor for them.
I don't think that he was necessarily a game factor
for me. I think the team has an overall played
really really well last year, but this year bo Nicks
can take that leap to where he's actually impacting the
effects of ends of games, especially when they're down. So
I really like this Broncos team, and I'm telling you,
(14:56):
I think this Broncos team is going to give the
Chiefs every bit of run they can for this division.
May they fall up short in the end, possibly, but
I think they're going to give the Chiefs every single
bit of run they can for the division.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I'm where you are, Torell. I like that nine and
a half as well, and you're getting plus money on it. Still,
I think that's a lock, even if bo Nicks should
regress a little bit of a sophomore and has a
little bit of a slump and guys, you know, adjust
to him. I think that defense is that good that
they get still squeak out ten wins and get above
five hundred there for sure. Ericson, do you have a
favorite win total here for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
I definitely don't like the Broncos as much as you two,
but I still think that the value is taking me
over at nine and a half, especially at plus money
odds at plus one ten. And I laid out the
win totals with Sean Payton when he has a top
ten defense, so that works in his favor and can
mitigate if there is a sophomore slump with bo Nicks.
And we just look at the two matchups they have,
Denver has a chance to really start hot this year.
(15:49):
They're playing Titans and Colts. Those are their first two
matchups of the season. So what we saw last year
with Denver, they killed bad teams, They destroyed the bad team.
So I think right now this is an offseason bet
to make because they're probably gonna start two and zero
and you're going to see this number not be a
plus money anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
So I'm with you guys on the over.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Just for clarity, I like the Broncos. I'm not in
love with the Broncos. There is a team that I
do love in this division. We'll get to them later.
Let's talk about the Kansasity Chiefs. Here, the win total
is at nine and a half. You're getting the over
minus three hundred.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
That's a lot.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
The win total here under nine and a half plus
two fifty. That's probably unlikely unless everything just completely disintegrated.
Then you have the other end of the spectrum at
thirteen and a half, where again minus four to ten
for the under and then plus three thirty for the over.
Both of those are a hard sell for me. So
we're looking at eleven and a half wins here over
under the overs plus one hundred, the unders minus one twenty.
(16:43):
Andrew Erickson, do you have any strong feelings here about
the Kansas City Chiefs win total.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
I'm going to go over the eleven and a half.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
I think it's more than factoring in the close games
that they'll probably lose more of than they did last year.
But it's eleven and a half wins, it's not thirteen
and a half. I'm not going up that because I
don't think they're going to reach that type of win
total after Sun running in all these close games last year.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
So it's going to be an over for me.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
All right, Terrell, you the same where Andrew Erickson is
right now eleven and a half looking at the over.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Yes, for me, it's gonna be the better offensive line play.
I mean, in a down year for the Chiefs offensive line,
there was a bunch of teams that could have capitalized
on it throughout the season and they were unable to.
I don't think that they're going to be able to
capitalize on the offensive line that I think is going
to be slightly better here. So I like the Chiefs
to continue to do what they're doing. I think that
they're healthier at all the skill positions, and they're gonna look,
it's gonna look a lot easier for Patrick Mahomes where
(17:35):
he's going to be able to make the right play
on those third downs and extend drives and put more
points on the board. So I like a better year
for the Chiefs here over eleven and a half wins, all.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Right, three for three here, I'm almost a stay away,
but I think they can get to twelve. I think
that's the number I'm comfortable at. Let's talk about the
Las Vegas eight is here. Their win totals arrange from
five and a half, seven and a half, nine and
a half. That's what you're looking at. The seven and
a half is probably the easiest one to disseminate here.
Over seven and a half wins at plus one thirty
five under at minus one sixty Unlessterrell, you think this
(18:07):
is a really tough year because this division is so strong,
in which case you are getting five and a half
wins under at plus one eighty. That's a big number
if you think they just aren't ready to compete on
the main stage with these other three teams.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Yeah, and I think this is a really competitive division.
I like the over seven and a half wins here
at plus money. I don't think that they're going to
be a horrible team. I don't think they're going to
be a great team. I think they're going to be
right along there. Eight wins, middle of the pack. Eight
to nine feels like where they finish at. And it's
really because they are healthy this year. The offensive line
(18:39):
is healthy, the defensive line is healthy. If they just
figure out what they're doing at the corner spot, and
they lock down what's going on in the corners. I
think that this defense can actually be pretty solid and
be able to save them in a few games. Whereas
the offense, I mean, Pete Carroll and Gino Smith have
been doing this oh we're going to be just okay
thing for a little while now, and so now they're
back together, I think is going to look exactly how
(19:01):
it did. If that offensive line gets healthy and plays
any better, Jeans might be really really good at running
back as well. I think that's gonna win them a
few games. So are they bottoming out at six five wins?
I don't think so. I think they're much closer to
a eight win scene.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
I think they're a seven win team, So I'm gonna
think the under at minus one sixty. But really I
don't like the juice, so it's probably just to stay
away from me. I think they are a solid seven
win team. I think they're going to be competitive. They
might even cover some games, maybe even pull off a
couple upsets. I just think the division is too tough,
and we have to play that many games in your division,
and then you also have to play the Eagles this year,
they have to play, you know, I don't know if
(19:36):
they can necessarily score with the Cowboys if the Cowboys
are actually you know, clicking on offense for one. Some
look at the rest of the schedule too. They got
to play the Washington Commanders two. Who knows. Maybe the
Giants are improved. That defense is certainly much better and
some of the offensive pieces they added in. I don't
like the schedule for them. I like a division they're in.
I think this is an underwhelming seven win team. What
do you think, Andrew, why don't you break the tie?
Speaker 2 (19:57):
I'm with you.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
Under seven and a half wins. I think it's more
like a six win team. And it's just the division
is really tough, and if they were playing in the NFC,
you'd probably feel much better about that. But you have
to consider that all of the Gino Smith and Pete Carroll,
what kind of success they had was in the context
of the NFC, which is a weaker division or it
has been a weaker division or conference than the AFC
(20:18):
because of the lack of top tier quarterbacks. But now
they're entering a division with three really strong quarterback options.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
With Gino Smith, there now added to the fold.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So I want to like the Raiders, but I think
the best approach, and I mentioned this earlier, I think
they're two more. Want to bet weekly against the spread,
to cover games, to be competitive, to keep it tight. Absolutely,
that's how I think you want to approach the Raiders,
not betting their season long win toll, because I think
you're going to be pulling your hair out, but you're
going to be happy you back.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Them with the points every single week.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Last one here the Chargers seven and a half, nine
and a half or eleven and a half. I'm gonna
be bold here. I'm gonna say over eleven and a
half wins a plus two ninety. That's my favorite spot
right now for this team. I think they're a twelve,
maybe even thirteen win team. I'll looking at the schedule here.
We have a run here where they play the Dolphins,
the Colts, they play a rookie quarterback in the Vikings.
Then they played the Tennessee Titans, Terrell's Pittsburgh Steelers, and
(21:09):
then the Jacksonville Jaguars before their bye week. And I
just think that's a real great opportunity where they can
rattle off a bunch of wins, and I just like
what they've done this offseason. I like how they've addressed
the backfield. This two good monster. I think it's gonna
be very good. I think Herbert's got a lot more
to work with. It's another year with Harball in the
continuity of that system. Andrew, where are you with the
Chargers win total for this season?
Speaker 4 (21:31):
Well, so much money betting on the Chargers historically, but
not last year. Last year was profitable because I bet
this over the win total last year and it worked
out and was basically based on the fact that Harbaugh
wins where he goes. He's a seventy percent win rate
in the NFL, So that's putting him over clearly over
nine and a half wins in a seventeen game season.
And entering last year, the Chargers had four straight years
(21:52):
of failing to hit their win total. Last year they
hit the over, and I think we're gonna get a
streak of over over over. So I'm going right back
to it didn't If it ain't, don't fix it right,
So taking the over so.
Speaker 1 (22:03):
Which number though, because the nine and a half at
plus one hundred is is an easier money. I'm saying
that I'm going to double down on it. I know
the nine and a half at plus one hundred, and
then take the eleven and a half at plus two
ninety two and just throw a unit there too. I
so heavy units on the nine and a half and
then just one on the bigger return, just to see
if it hits. Do you think you agree with that approach.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
I think I'm probably just a little bearish on that,
just because of the how good the division is. Right,
so they're dogs to win the division with the Chiefs
and about equal odds with the Denver Broncos. I can't
completly say, oh, they're gonna have more wins than Denver,
So that kind of gets me a little bit nervous.
Where I get plus plus money at over nine and
a half wins, I feel really good about that happening,
(22:43):
and always wonky stuff can always happen at week eighteen.
Guys are resting players, et cetera, et cetera, And then
you're I don't want to have one of those bad
beats in week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Fair enough, Terrell, where do you see the Chargers landing
this year in the win column.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
I'm on the complete other side of you. Both I okay,
not big on the Chargers at all, and I can't
take the over on a win total on a team
who's defense that I'm questioning on what they're gonna look
like this season. I mean, yes, the coach is cool
and all, but you go and you don't have Joey
Bost anymore. So that's something that has to be talked about.
You look at the secondary, and you lost both of
your starting corners in the secondary, both of you actually
(23:20):
lost one of them inside the division, so Fulton moves
inside the division. You lose a Sance Samuel Junior, and
the two corners that you signed to replace them are
Dante Jackson and Benjamin Saint Juics, who were both the
corners that we targeted when we were talking about player props,
when we're talking about fantasy, when we're talking about anything
on the other side.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Of the ball.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
Last season, those were the two corners for the Steelers
and the Commanders that we were targeting in games, and
now those are their two starters. So I just don't
think that this team is going to be good enough.
And I don't think that Justin Herbert is a good
enough quarterback where if you put him in a shootout
night in night out, that he's gonna constantly get win
after win after win. So I think that this team
is going to be a lot close Raiders than they
(24:00):
are the Chiefs. So I like the under here, all right, So.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
We'll disagree there. I don't think Joey Bosa is too
much of a loss. I mean, twenty twenty two and
twenty twenty three can play to combined fourteen games. Last
year he played fourteen games when we had five sacks.
I don't know. I just think Joey Bosa is at
least some Yeah, it's fine. He's just overrated and he's
always hurt, and you know, I want healthy place.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Is it you hurt right now?
Speaker 1 (24:22):
He is, right, yeah, yeah, he has hurt already, so
you know, but that's the Bills problem now, not ours.
Let's get to the division winners, and I think Terrell
might have showed his hand here. But let's take a
look at the board. First. The Chiefs are at the
top of it, minus one fifteen, the Chargers at plus
three ten. I think everybody knows that's where I'm going,
So give me the Chargers there, the Broncos at plus
three forty, and then the Raiders at plus twelve hundred Terrell,
(24:43):
the board is yours pick the winner of the AFC West.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Well, for value, I'll just take the Broncos. I think
that is a good chance that is the Chiefs, and
I have a better way to play it, and I'll
talk about that a little bit later, But I'm completely
sold on the charge. Like well, I'm sold on the
Chargers not being relevant for this division. I truly think
that they are a lot closer and they're going to
be battling for fourth place with the Raiders, who are
not going to be a bad team. And I'm not
(25:07):
saying that either one of these two teams are going
to be a bad team. I think the loser of
this division has eight seven wins here, and so ultimately,
I just don't think that they have the defense, clearly
not the defense to the level of the Broncos. I
think they could lose both of the games against the Broncos.
They haven't had any type of consistency at all with
the Chiefs, So I just don't think that they're one
of the top two teams in the division, and so
(25:28):
it's value play Broncos here. But I have a better
way to play it and I'll save it for the end, all.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
Right, Andrew Erickson. So we got one for the value,
one for the Chargers. Where are you going?
Speaker 4 (25:41):
She's taking the layup Chiefs one division nine years in
a row, win every year that Mahomes is a starter,
So minus one fifteen for it's been a lock since
the last nine years. So until them, until somebod else happens,
I'll keep being the Chiefs to win the division.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
Look, as a Patriots fan, you should know this. Remember
when you know they started losing super Bowls and all
of a sudden that started plucking around there, you know,
those kind of annoying years. I'm just saying, I think
we're in that Chiefs window.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Right.
Speaker 4 (26:05):
They would always win on these weird tie breakers and
be a three way tie, the AFC East and the
Jets and sneaking the Patriots missed the playoffs because they
want to let they went eleven and five one year
and they.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
Missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
I'm just saying, I guess I Look, I've never been
the guy that been against the Chiefs after that Super
Bowl last year. The age of that team where.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
They did it, They've already done this though, they've been
down this road. They lost the Super Bowl already, and
they came back and won the division and.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Lost an embarrassing fashion.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
They lost in embarrassing fashion and came back in one two.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
They did.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
But at the time that division was an absolute joke.
It is not a joke anymore. You have one of
the best defenses in that division. You've got a young
quarterback in Justin Herbert and a very good head coach
in Hardball on the other team. And then you've got
a guy in Pete Carroll who's been around the league
for you know, I don't know, seven hundred years, who
knows what he's doing. The Chiefs are like a lot
of great dynasties, which if you go back to the
forty nine Ers dynasty, absolutely great team, obviously, some of
(26:58):
the most talent you'll ever see on a roster. They
also benefited from a weak division, so to the Patriots,
you know, sort of the seventies Steelers. A lot of
these teams that are dynasties, they benefit from weak divisions,
and I just don't think the division as nearly as
weak as it used to be. And they were teams
last year that really took the Chiefs to their limit.
The Texans did so, the Broncos do it. I just
(27:18):
think it's going to be a much different season for them,
and I still am not sure what that offense is
going to look like with the pieces it currently has.
But that's for everybody else in the comments to decide
and get their takes let them fly on YouTube. Let's
get to our last segment here, our favorite bets and
our wildcard crazy bets for the AFC West. I'm going
to start things off here. I'm gonna take this pretty
(27:40):
easy here.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
I think the.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Chargers make the playoffs. I think the Broncos make the playoffs.
You're getting both of those easy money minus one twenty
four for the Chargers minus one fourteen for the Broncos. Again,
I just like easy money, so I'm going to take
the lay up there. Four thousand passing yards for Justin Herbert, Yes, please,
you're getting two to one on this. I know they're
gonna run the football. He's still going to have over
four thousand passing This is twenty twenty five NFL so
(28:02):
this is just about him staying healthy. Ap NFL Offensive
Rookie of the Year for twenty twenty five Ash and
Jendy can get it plus two seventy. I think that's
a good look there. I think that's worth the investment. Torell,
you teased us earlier with one of your favorite ways
to approach this division. So let's unleash the Beast here.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Yeah, let's just go ahead and do it top two.
Any order, doesn't matter what order. Give me the Chiefs
and the Broncos to be one two in the division.
It doesn't matter what order. It could be Broncos Chiefs,
it could be Chiefs Broncos. But I'm convinced that I
don't think that the Chargers are in it for this division.
I'm sorry, it's too many question marks on the defensive
side of the ball. And I am not big into
Justin Herbert as everybody else is. You said, Justin Herbert
(28:40):
a young quarterback. He's five years in. This is year
six for him. Like, at this point, what point do
you become a veteran and when do we start giving
you some more expectations of getting the job done. I
understand you've been heard a couple of years, but that's
that's the nature of the Beast. You gotta figure out
how to get it done and I just don't have
the faith that if they're in a close game, if
they're in shootouts, and he's got to constantly be perfect,
(29:02):
constantly keeps the offense going every single time with the
defense that isn't gonna give you any breaks. And hopefully
we'll see if Harball can coach this defense up where
maybe this is a non starter and they take guys
like Saint just who I was absolutely flaming when he
was on the Washington Commanders and make him into a
really good starting corner for them. But for that, I
just don't think that they're gonna be in it. I
(29:23):
really don't. So that's where I'm just putting everything at.
I think this is a very very good bet where
I feel very confident that no matter how this division
pans out, it's gonna be one and two at the top.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
Well, he's about the same age Justin Herbert as Tyler Shuck,
I'm pretty sure, So just putting that out there, he's
twenty six years old, Justin Herbert going on twenty seven.
I am, I don't remember.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
Comparisons to Tyler Shuck is a good thing.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Man, I'm saying. You're saying he's been in the league
so long. He's just twenty six. He came into the
league when he was twenty two. He did set a
rookie passing record for yards. He did throw for five
thousand yards the next season, forty seven hundred the year
after that, before they bought him out in twenty twenty
three with a terrible season and he was hurt and
the coach got fired. And last year was the first
year in new system. He had thirty eight seventy and
(30:07):
again the touchdown total was lame, but he didn't have
a lot of great weapons. He took Keenan Allen away
from him. Quentin Johnson stings. You know, he was relying
basically on a rookie Lad McConkie, who was great. I
love Laden McConkie, but Lad mccakie, Trey Harris, these running backs,
I don't know. I think the Chargers are going to
be a lot to handle. Let's get Andrew Erickson's take
here some of his fun bets. What do you have
here for the AFC West.
Speaker 4 (30:29):
Andrew, Yeah, So I'm backing the Chargers as well. That's
why I wore my powder blue so Chargers over a
nine and a half wins plus money I'm going to
go with the lock that's been the lock for the
last nine years, Chiefs to win the division at minus
one fifteen, I will say with the Chief's bet. I
don't know if I want to bet this right now,
because if you look at I always try to look
at some of these early schedules. So Week one, they
(30:50):
play in Brazil against the Chargers, weird game. Could the
Chiefs lose that game? I think it's possible. We saw
last year when they played in Brazil a lot of
weird things happened. There were guys that were wide open,
guys were slipping. So I think that there's some mystery,
a mystique to that game that could result in something
kind of weird happening. So and then the second game
they play is against the Eagles, right, so they start
(31:12):
one in one. I think you can get a better
record or a better number on them to win the
division that at minus one fifteen, you might even get
that plus money if the Broncos, like I said, they
start out to to Oh, you're gonna see the odds shift.
So that's going to keep in mind when it comes
to the player props. I think that this one really
stuck out to me. And it's not a player that
I particularly like. I just think the number is it's
just so low. Naji Harris over five hundred and twenty
(31:34):
five rushing yards. He has four straight seasons of one
thousand yards. The projections for betting pros have him going
over this number. And this is not a high number
to pass some of the guys that hit this number
last year that I honestly could not believe. But I
actually had to look and see Antonio Gibson, Travis etn
Jerome Ford like that. That's what Najierras has to do
(31:54):
in a run first offense with the Gregs. It's really
not a high bar to pass, even with Omaron Hampton
also there.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
So I just think the number is just too low.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
And then my last one, my fun one is Patrick
Mahomes to leave the NFL in passing touchdowns. Last year,
only Joe Burrow had more red zone pass attempts than
he did. He was second in the NFL red zone
pass attempts, second and expected passing touchdowns last season. He
was third neck category. In twenty twenty three, when Tom
Brady turned thirty, he threw fifty touchdowns. Mahmes it's gonna
(32:24):
be thirty this year. Maybe we have another fifty touchdown
season coming.
Speaker 1 (32:27):
Maybe maybe, And don't forget everybody. If you're gonna betting
this year, make sure you're using the Betting Pros app.
Download it today, it's free. You can sink your sportsbooks
for free too, and you could use tools like the
Betting Pros Picktracker and of course the Picktracker. It sinks
to your sports book, the tailor tyali which picks will
hit for you and which have missed. Plus, it gives
you a live look at what the public is doing,
so you can use real time tracking to determine which
(32:49):
place to make and which ones to fade. So track
your picks today on Betting Pros use the Picktracker, or
go to Betting pros dot com slash picktracking, or just
use the Betting Pros app right now. Download that boy
today and use the tools to bet smarter and not harder.
Drop your comments below to what's your favorite bet in
the AFC Western Division? Is it a team total? Is
it the Chargers to win? Sure it is, whatever it is.
(33:12):
Drop your comments below let us know what you think,
and of course, subscribe to the YouTube channel like this video.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Terrell and Andrew. I'm Joey P.
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 5 (33:24):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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