August 2, 2025 • 29 mins
Join Seth Woolcock, Chris Welsh, and Joe Orrico as they highlight their favorite futures bets to make across MLB as we head into the home stretch of the season!
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Intro - 0:00:00
Biggest Team Futures Market Movers - 0:02:31
BettingPros Systems Tool - 0:10:37
Award Futures - 0:11:10
FantasyPros on Twitch - 0:19:46
Trade Deadline Aftermath Betting Strategy - 0:20:25
Big Longshot Bet of the Month - 0:24:01
Outro - 0:28:59
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's August,
which means the MLB trade deadline has come and gone.
Angry pirates fans, they're already running a muck here in
western Pennsylvania. It's a tale as all as time. But
what does it mean for the future betting markets? That's
where we're gonna tell you in this episode. I'm your host,
Seth Wilcock, and to help us get to the bottom
(00:22):
of it all, I'm joined by the two host of
leading off Moving Forward, Chris Welsh and the great Joe
Rico from up North. Welsh, have you finally exhaled after
all the movement over the past forty eight hours or so.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Not really, We're kind of still reeling from the whole thing. Winners, losers.
I think I saw something it was like sixty or
ninety prospects somewhere in there that were traded during the deadline.
I'm a prospect guy. A ton of implications, and you know,
we're going to talk about some of the teams that
made moves that I think are are gonna have some
(00:54):
impact on bets we might be comfortable taking a shot at.
And then obviously clearly where some of the lines are
fucking in so crazy deadline. Deep breath, everybody, Let's see
what we can make of it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Joe, how are you hanging in there?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Man? I know it's pretty busy week both on the
content front, and I'm sure your dms right now are
just getting buried with all the questions from the action.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
Do I drop David Bednar, Do I drop Camilo Doval?
Do I pick up this guy? It's crazy, but we
love it, like every year. Who else and I were
talking about this a couple of days ago and he
asked me, do you expect this to be like a
busy deadline? I was like, ah, you know, I think
it's gonna be kind of under the radar. And then
just an explosion.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
It was.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
I couldn't even keep track of it. I was trying
to keep track of it in an article I was
writing yesterday, and I was like, all right, I'll do
a little write up for every trade, and then there's
thirty two trades or something, so it's like, Okay, this
is gonna take me a bit longer than I thought,
but great to be on with you guys. I was
on leading off yesterday when three for three on the bets.
So we're hot, tea. Let's keep it going, all.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Right, man, today's program looks like this.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We'll dive into the biggest movers of the team futures
and the individual player award markets. We're also to kind
of get into the guy's strategy for capitalizing on a
market that is in flux post deadline, and of course
we'll round out the show give you our favorite long
shots for the rest of the way.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
And before we get going, shout out to everyone.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Who's watching us, either on the Betting Pros YouTube channel
or listening on the audio feed. The easiest way to
support us. First, give this video a thumbs up if
you enjually this type of content. Also, make sure you're subscribing.
If you're new, we got a ton of content coming
your way this fall. You want to be included in that.
We want to make sure you don't miss a second
of it. Also, let us know down in the comments
below your favorite current future values. We want to hear
(02:30):
from you and boys, let's go ahead and dive into
the team future markets. A lot of bobbing and weaving
over the past forty eight hours. As we noted so
well s, who is the biggest positive or negative movers
since our last show, perhaps due to some of the
deadline moves.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
So I think one of the bigger movers that has
been like positive or you know how we want to
look at it, like the odds have dropped were the
Seattle Mariners. But this is when I'm picking as a
bet that I really like. So I've actually got two
for you real quick. These are in this this world
of like World Series divisional you know, to make the
playoffs that I think you should pay attention to. But
(03:08):
the Seattle Mariners, I think the World Series market is
where the big thing happened. But it didn't look like
divisionally too much has changed yet, which I thought was
really interesting because they went out and made I think
two of the biggest moves or the biggest moves that
they needed to do for their team structure was bats.
They needed corner in fiddels, They needed some boppers. You
know that ballpark is one of the worst just overall
(03:30):
ballpark factors, So why not get some dudes that are
you know, big RBI, high contact hitter and Josh Naylor
and one of the biggest power hitters in baseball so
far this season with Iohanil Suarez, so I thought, paired
with their incredible rotation, great bullpen, that was the missing piece,
and the Mariners are four and a half games back
on the UH the Astros, who the Astros made some
(03:53):
impactful trades, but they have huge injuries that are going
out there. You've got the Rangers there. I just think
that's a really, really good looking mark that I would
pay attention to. And then keeping in again the World
Series League winner divisions that I think, I don't know
what the move has looked like from where they were
to where they are now. But a bet that I
really like is San Diego for the World Series at
(04:17):
twenty to one right now, because again the San Diego Padres,
if we're talking about the trade deadline making an impact
on either where these bets have moved or bets that
we now like, I love twenty to one for the
Padres right now. I think divisionally they're a solid bet.
I think with them bringing in Mason Miller, bringing in
the bats, they covered all the holes you can get
(04:37):
those starting pitchers to not go as deep as you
need to that I would look at. I think these
are two of the biggest winners from the deadline the
Mariners and Padres. So if you don't like specifically what
I'm saying of like Seattle Division or Padres to win
the World Series or even to make the World Series,
I'll just throw you at you should pay attention to
these two teams in the betting market and play it
(04:57):
however you want Division to to make the World Series
to win. I'm looking all across the board because I
think these two teams are teams that are gonna be
very scary and short series. They both look like they're
a lined for the playoffs. So I gave you a
couple that I personally like, but I think I'm wide
open to any type of bet that you want to
leverage with these teams. If you wanted to take San
Diego to win the Division as well, I think that's
(05:18):
a really good bet.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Man plus seven fifty. That feels like a great value
for a surging Mariners team potentially down the stretch. Here
one of my best friends, he's a Mariners fan. He
always gets his hopes up late in the year and
it never comes to fruition. So, Joe, do you think
this maybe is the year the Mariners can top the
Al West and any thoughts on the Padres out West
as well.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Yeah, I like both of these picks a lot. The Mariners,
their pitching hasn't been as healthy as what we saw
last year, but they're still very, very strong. Ryan wu
has had a couple of rough starts, but he's not
somebody that you worry about. Kirby Gilbert Castillo, like this
is a solid rotation. They got a solid pen, and
like Walsh had talked about, their lineup is what they
really needed to work on. Just you're fighting an uphill
(06:01):
battle in that ballpark. So adding Naylor, adding Suarez, as
much as it probably hurts Welsh to have seen that
happen over the deadline, I think these are really good
moves for Seattle. And then you have San Diego, who
has four or five viable closers right now at this point.
If they there starting gets through five innings, it's game overall.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Baseball, without question.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
I don't know if it's without questions the question. Look
at the Yankees though. Look at the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
William Reed stars and then you added Mason Miller and
Adrian Morion, j Ristrata.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
They're fantastic. I think it's either them or the Yankees.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Right.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
It was the Mets for like half an hour there,
and then it's.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Let's agree on this best bullpen in the NL.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Absolutely, absolutely the Yankees. I'll get to the Yankees in
a minute, but the Padres they also added in their
lineup as well, Loreano and O'Hearn. They've kind of been
struggling in left field. I hadn't really been talking about
a lot this year, but I think among left field
ops amongst all teams, they're like twenty six or something
in baseball. So Loreano is a night fit there. I'm
on board with both of these bets, plus two thousand
(07:03):
for the Padres. I might have to pause the stream
here and go place that myself.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Joe, when you're looking at either the World Series market,
the to win the Division or make the playoff market,
are there any risers and follower followers that you've been
kind of tracking over the past week or so with
all the movement happening across the bigs.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
So this one literally hurts me to my soul. I'm
usually on this channel or on Fantasy Pros wearing a
Blue Jay's hat, but today I'm going to be telling
you to bet the Yankees, and I just think when
you look at what they did in their pen. You know,
reasonable people can differ on who has the better bullpen.
But Devin Williams, David Bednar, Camelo Doval, Luke Weaver, Jonathan L. Wisaga,
(07:42):
if he ever gets back to what he used to be,
that could be nasty. The starting rotation, I think they
probably should have added another arm there, But Rodan Freed Warren,
I think that's solid. And then you have the lineup
which has been one of the better lineups in baseball,
buoyed by Aaron Judge, who has been out, but Aaron
Judges expected to return in a couple of days. So
when I look at the Yankees in the American League
(08:03):
East as a whole, this feels like a very winnable
division for them. They're three and a half back of
the Blue Jays right now. You can get them at
plus one fifty. I look at run differential a lot,
and the Blue Jays, as much as I love them, dearly,
they have a twenty three run differential for the whole season.
It ranks fourth in the American League East, and the
Yankees are at plus ninety nine. They've won their last
three games. They're going to be getting judged back. I
think this bullpen is phenomenal, so I think they're worth
(08:26):
a sprinkle for the division and any other kind of
bets you want to look at for the Yankees if
you think they can go all the way, I wouldn't
put it past to you if that's where you're at
right now, especially if you're just looking at winning the
American League. I think the Yankees are a good team
to bet on from a number of different angles right now.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Welsh, what do you think because the Yankees were certainly
one of the heavier favorites to win a division throughout
the entire majors earlier this season when we've been tracking this,
and now they're suddenly back in the division, they have
the air and judge injury. Do you think they've done
enough to push themselves over the top and that plus
one to fifty is worth the worth of there for
the Ale East title?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
What I do like is that you get the plus
money on it. I do I feel they did enough? No,
I actually kind of put them in the loser market
of the trade deadline. I think the trust the Red
Sox I think are worse. I think that's a bigger problem.
I think the Red Sox are much worse because they
sold us that you know, we're gonna trade devers and
we're gonna go get this, and they didn't do anything,
and this was their time to go make a big
(09:23):
impactful move to take this division. So here's my only
problem with it is that I just actually think the
division is very gettable across the board. The Rays were
ten games back, they went out and made moves because
they felt that they could still do something. So I
think it's a four dog race here that I don't
think the Yankees did enough. But I will say this
kind of forgot when you lay out those closers. It
(09:45):
is very padres ASKI really is maybe a one two
one B. But I think those trades were like protecting
the Louise Heel. Like Louise Heel's a starter that Joe
didn't mention that's going to come into the rotation. Having
that type of a bullpen allows Louis Heel to just
stick to five innings. It at least allows all these
guys so you don't have to go deep into game,
So it is kind of a starting pitcher protection play.
(10:08):
I think that you're getting plus money as the top
dogs or you know, close to the top dogs. I
know the Blue Jays are upright there. I think I
could get down with it, but I'm not in love
because I think this division has the most flux. If
in one month from now we were like, can you
believe that the Rays and the Red Sox are at
the top of the division and the Blue Jays are
down in the ad, we wouldn't be surprised. So you know,
(10:31):
I would love better odds. But getting the Yankees of
plus money with the bullpen moves they just made it's
not the worst thing in the world.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Before we keep it moving, I want to tell you
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(10:58):
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start making smarter bets today, gentlemen, let's go ahead and
let's move forward to the award markets that have really
seen a seismic shift over the past few weeks. And
(11:18):
Joe Rico, you were out front of one of these
on our last program. So who is your late season
momentum candidate for an award market, whether that's MVP or
Cy Young.
Speaker 4 (11:30):
So I will say that a lot of the odds
at this point there is a dramatic favorite, whether it's
the Cy Young's, MVP's, Rookie of the Year, even Manager
of the Year. Everything seems to be minus three hundred
or so at the least. So you kind of have
to look for these little value plays, and you have
to spin some narratives. And the one that I'm spinning
is cal Rawley. And you know, I think Aaron Judge
is going to be back in a few days. You
(11:51):
have to take the Yankees at face value and that
he's going to be fine, But you also have the
chance that that elbow injury is going to affect his power.
I'm gonna be speaking out of both sides of my
mouth a little bit in this episode, but that is
a possibility that Aaron Judge comes back and he is
not quite what he was before. Cal Rawley is somebody
that is essentially matching him in terms of wins above replacement.
He's at six point four, Judge is at seven point one,
(12:13):
and Rawley's played four more games. But I think that
difference being as close as it is. If Raley gets
to fifty home runs, and it looks like he probably will,
he's at forty two right now, and he has an
eight win season as a catcher. If he's even close
to Judge, I think that there's a chance that Raley
gets it. Judge has a couple MVPs. There's a chance
that there's some voter fatigue there on top of the
fact that maybe he is not quite peak Aaron Judge
(12:35):
when he returns. So there's only really one alternative here
to bet. It is cal Rawley if you are going
to look for the American League MVP, and I think
if you're looking at all the different markets, this is
probably the one that makes sense of the guys who
are not currently favored at the moment.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
Well and Joe, I think on our last show too,
you got him what six seven to one something like that,
so you were well ahead of the curve, so it
kind of played into your hand very favorably. Is is
this cal Rawley's race to lose? You think at this
point Welsh.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
No, I don't think it's his race to lose, but
I think he's neck and neck, like you know, he's
got this. We spun this whole scenario in the last show,
which is very fun, not just then like hey, cal
Rally could be a fun bet, but we get we
gave the scenario, well, what was the scenario. Judge had
to get hurt. Judge had to get hurt for this
market to make a drastic and seismic change. I laid
(13:27):
out the big big one in the trek Schogle, yes,
and Joe laid out the cal Rally one. But it
was all built around the injury. We got that. The
other side of one of my narrative pieces was why
we would go against cal Rally would be that he
tapers back the Mariner's taper back. I'm against that now
because the Mariners have not I think they just won
(13:48):
the trade deadline and cal Rally really hasn't, like had
some big fall. So because those things didn't happen, that
bet looks so good from a time before do I
want to bet it right now at cal Raleigh on
plus money, like plus one and a half to want.
I don't, I don't want. I don't think that's a
good value right now because Aaron Judge is coming back
(14:08):
in a couple of days, and if well, you just
laid up with Joe, just laid out. If the Yankees
are gonna go and win the division and they're gonna
take this East, which is messy right now, it's gonna
be because Aaron Judge is at the forefront of it,
and he's gonna get a lot of juice. And he
was like minus forty five billion or whatever it was
before he got hurt. So you don't think that this
(14:29):
is the opportunity if you want, I actually think to
jump in on a minus money Judge because if he
comes back and he hits, he's gonna snatch this right away.
But I don't think this is gonna be a unanimous
one because let's say, you know, he just gets back
to like vintage Judge and stuff like. I think this
will be a close race because of what cal Raley's
doing as a catcher, and the differentiating factor could be
(14:50):
if the Mariners go on a run like I'm kind
of proposing then it's gonna play out. But my main
thing here is is like I just don't think cal
has this locked up up and I don't think like
really low under two to one odds is where I
would want to go. But a Rico's bet from last show, Yeah,
it's absolutely genius right now.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
So well, not only have you dabbled with the MVP odds,
the cy Young market, but you've also had some tickets
for Rookie of the Year. Where are you going here?
Is there any you know, potential late season riser, someone
who's gaining momentum down the stretch that you think could
make make a push in an award that that you
are comfortable betting at their current odds after the trade deadline.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
So Joe laid it out a little bit. Here's the
problem with the award market. It's messy, and I think
everything you've got to spin a big narrative. And this is,
by the way, because I'm going to take a similar
path to Joe, even though I was like, I don't
really love the col rally. Yeah, there's nothing else to
bet unless you are in the true gambling and you
want to do you want to spin a narrative because
I mean, I'll give you one real quick, that's not mine.
(15:52):
I actually have this ticket and I would, God what
I love for it to cash. But like, if you
want to spin the narrative that Nick Kurtz could get hurt,
Cam Smith is like the most insane good odd right now.
If the Astros are gonna pick back up, he's five.
I have a twenty five to one ticket. Personally, I
think he's twenty five to one right now. Again, if
Kurts were to get hurt and miss you know, three
(16:13):
weeks guys a Smith, Yeah, he's on a nice tear.
The Astros just got some of their guys back. Like
you could absolutely see where he could get But that
is totally speculative, and that's hard to do in this
market and all the odds. There's no NL value. I
think there's kind of little value in the AL. We're
talking MVP Rookie of the Year. It's so far onto
Nick Kurtz right now. It's like minus one ninety in
(16:36):
the NL for Drake Baldon. There's just not a lot
of value. The one I'm going to come back to
and this is probably again in the same vein of
what Joe is doing, and I have had this ticket
for a little while, is Zach Wheeler is still plus money.
And the negative I would suppose is Paul Skeens is
finally picking up a couple of wins, which is not good.
But this team looks as bad as ever. And here
would be my narrative spin. Zach Wheeler right now has
(16:58):
more wins, a better K per nine, and the lower
walk per nine doesn't have that. I mean Skeins has
ERA right now, it's sub two, but we're talking low
two's for Zach Wheeler. And they just went out and
got a closer who has moved way up in the
market who can shut down games to continue to get wins.
Can they really, Let's just arguably say Paul Skeins has
a two ERA two ARA with nine wins. Can they
(17:23):
take that away from Zach Wheeler, who could have sixteen
wins and a two point three ERA and more strike.
I don't know. I think a Phillies are going to
be on a tear. I think there's a win perspective
to it. Wheeler's been important, he's got more protection for wins,
He's plus one thirty in markets. I have much better
odds earlier in the year at like eleven to one.
But this is probably of all of these, I feel
(17:44):
more comfortable about Wheeler than I do jumping in on
cal Raley, and unfortunately nothing else is I think, really
bettable in the awards market. Again, unless you speculate and
you want to be a gambling man and take a
twenty five to one Cam Smith, or you want to
take a twenty to one Kyle Schwarber if something happens
to Otani, which it was kind of floating out there, Like,
those are the plays if you want to really try
(18:06):
to make a calculated bet or play that like buy
out market, you know what I'm saying, Like, you go
and you get one of these guys and then the
market moves a little bit and then you can cash out.
Maybe there's a couple of those, but it's really between Wheeler,
I think, and cal Raleigh if you want like half
decent odds.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Right now, I don't want to make this show about me,
but I am the host, so I am going to like,
what are we doing in Pittsburgh, man? Like we get
nothing back for any of these players, like single A prospects.
I just don't understand, and then we have all these
expiring contracts, we just leam on the team for the year,
like like Joe helped me out, Like is it just
are we just dump at salary? Is that all we're doing.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
I don't know what you guys are doing. To be
perfectly honest, I don't know why IKF wasn't traded. I
don't know why Fam wasn't traded. I don't know why
Keller wasn't traded. At least you traded Bednar. But from
what I understand and Welsh can speak more to the prospects,
it was kind of an underwhelming return for benit No and.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
That's why I went because you actually, you guys got
kids is not for this show. But Raphael Flores was
a great get for them, super sneaky, good power. I
think up to triple a catcher. I actually really like
that get for what is you know, okay, a rental
type of closer. They didn't blow it out of the market,
but I actually think they did a decent job in trade.
(19:20):
But it's more negative that they had so many players
they did not trade and get anything for. But they
did a good job on the bed in our side.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Free bet I'm giving everyone right right now. I'm betting the.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Under on the Pirate season win total next year. Just
gonna just gonna do it out of fight. I'm gonna
go down there, P and C. I'll still enjoy my
icy light down by the river, but but I'm gonna be,
you know, secretly hoping potentially for some losses out there.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
The gambler fight.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch since opening day.
Joe Piece of Pat, Chris Welsh, and Joe Rico have
been live every weekday at twelve pm Eastern for leading off.
That's your daily dose of all things at baseball, news, bets,
and fancy advice, all in one place. Ask questions, get insight.
An interact live falls now at twitch dot tv slash
(20:08):
Fancy Pros, and you're never gonna miss a stream. A
bigger lineup of exclusive, interactive live content is on the way,
including some NFL stuff.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
Has been a lot of fun over there in the
Twitch streets over the past few weeks, so make sure
you're hanging out with us over there at Twitch dot
tv slash Fantasy Pros. All right, guys, let's talk about
the trade deadline and how to exploit this shifting futures landscape. Well,
do you think the window is now open that this
market is potentially exploitable? It should we be diving in
(20:38):
head first right now? Or is it still kind of
proceed with caution?
Speaker 2 (20:42):
No, I think I laid it out. I think the
what I started the show with it in my mind
is teams that made significant moves that I think can
close the gap, that still have odds that you want
to play. So I would say, yes, it is exploitable.
The example is the Padres, the Mariners, whether it's playing divisions,
getting to the World Series, like I pitching, you know,
(21:04):
pitching is going to get you in September in October,
and I'm looking at the teams. I don't think enough
teams made big starting pitcher moves. But these teams that
went heavy in on on believers, I think that's a
great play why, Like the Padres, the Mariners already had
such a great rotation to me that they were missing
the offensive piece. They did that. So yeah, I don't
(21:25):
think the market the markets are going to move quick
on teams like the Dodgers, and frankly would be the
Yankees and the Red Sox. But guess what, none of
the big teams made the big, impactful moves. It was
these smaller teams that the markets are not willing to
move off of the big dogs or anything. And that's why,
Like the Padres are a good get because they're still
facing up against the Dodgers, but the Padres made moves
(21:46):
literally across the board. So yes, the answer to it,
and I think I laid it out with my opening
vets is I do think the trade market creates some
exploitable opportunities.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Joe, what's your strategy when it comes to unit allocation
here for August in the futures market? Are we dumping
a bunch back in? Is this a time to maybe
start hedging some of your other bets that didn't fan
out earlier this season? How are you kind of playing
this as we head down the stretch and you know
odds are going to continue to get shorter and shorter
as the season progresses here.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Yeah, for me, when you're betting it's more front loaded,
I like to place the more earlier in the season.
You get the better odds at this time of the year,
Like we've kind of laid out. If you're betting on
any of the futures, either you're taking a huge long
shot that's going to be, you know, plus one thousand
or even worse, or you're betting somebody who is like,
you know, you're taking Drake Baldwin to Rookie of the
(22:37):
Year and it's minus two hundred. So I feel like
you get a lot more value betting earlier in the season.
This time of year, you know a lot of things
are going to change in terms of the Marcus after
the trade deadline, and I think maybe sometimes they can
overcorrect a little bit. Baseball is a team sport more
than maybe any other sport, and one player can only
do so much, so they are going to be teams.
Maybe it's you know, and take any team that made
(22:58):
a big acquisition, they're gonna they're gonna see their odds
that are shifted, whether it's for the Division, World Series, whatever.
But a lot of the time it doesn't make a huge,
huge impact the way those teams are expecting and the
way the odds makers are expecting. I mean this is
an extreme example. Well, look at Mike Trout. The guy's
never won anything. You can be as great as you
can possibly be, and you're only one guy. So these
teams that are acquiring one or two players and you're
(23:19):
seeing big line shifts, I think some of the time
that's overplayed and they probably shouldn't be moving as much
as they are.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
You know, something that I often like to do in
motorsports futures or also in NFL futures is start parlaying
some of these heavy favorites at the end of the year.
So maybe you go get yourself like a scooball Cy
Young ticket, you know, put that with Tawny or something
like that, and start kind of building that that positive
(23:46):
e ev up as we close the season. But just
something I remember last year, I put out of Joe
Burrow come Back Player of the Year ticket with a
Josh Allen MVP and what was able to get a
nice return, even though that that was way more of
a sweater than it should have been because Lamar was
awesome down the stretch.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
But uh, let's go ahead, though, guys.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
Let's round out the program as we always do with
our favorite futures long shots of the month. Welsh, this
has kind of been your sweet spot this season. So
what do you have for us today that we need
to be investing in before it's gone.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
Yeah, and the it's just so much more diminished. We
had such cool ones yeah in the season, and just
things have flowed, so it is a lot harder to
find something that is you know, we take like a
usually like you know, eight to one plus you know,
we want to go in bigger. Yeah, this one does
stand out to me, and I've talked a lot about
it in this show. But I'm going to go back
to the Podres here, and I obviously like you've got
(24:36):
the Phillies who are dangerous, You've got the Dodgers that
are dangerous. They've got to get through that divisionally, But
you can play the podres to get to the World
Series eleven to one right now. So there's a big task,
and I suppose you could probably argue, like you know,
the al might be a better place to play that,
but like, by the way, the Mariners to get to
(24:56):
the World Series, that's it's worse odds. And they you know,
really Yankees, so that you know they are I think
it's closer to eight to one. But I just really
I love that they went all in. I think it's
you know, it's imperative that they obviously win for what
they did. But you take O'Hearn, who is going into
a worse environment for a lefty, but with what he's
(25:18):
done this year, it's more lineup protection. Loreano defensively and offensive.
Loreano has had a crazy, sneaky season. They've got bench
help if Jackson Merrill just picks it up on the
back half. This is paired with a you Darvish who
found a mechanical change and just spun a great one,
a bullpen that will allow Dylan Cees to not go
(25:39):
deep into games. Michael King, who could be rehabbing this
weekend that we could get back very soon. You've got
your rotation kind of back. You have one of them,
from Estrata to Morione to Jason Adam to Robert Swarez
to Mason Miller. You could go. You could let your
starters go four innings if you want, and put out
those relievers. They've got a great bullpen. They've got solid
(26:00):
starters that need a few things to go their way.
And I think a lineup that is now fully competitive
across the board in where the Dodgers are a little
wonky right now. I think the Phillies are probably the
scariest scariest here, But at eleven to one, I like
taking this bet because if they do move through the
World Series, you're going to get biout opportunities or through
the playoffs, so you got some biout opportunities. But at
(26:20):
eleven to one, with what the Padres did, I think
this is like a solid long shot bet. Whatever making
in August.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
Joe, anything you're seeing from a long shot standpoint right
now that we should be considering.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
So, like I mentioned earlier, I'm going to be speaking
out of both sides of my mouth a little bit,
and I'm sitting on the fence here because there's a
couple of different things that could happen with Aaron Judge.
Like I mentioned earlier, maybe he comes back and he's
hampered a little bit, and that would leave an opportunity
for cal Rawley. But what if Aaron Judge comes back
and he's fine. Because this is a very short stay
on the IL doesn't seem to be any huge problem.
You can bet Aaron Judge to lead major League Baseball
(26:54):
and home runs, and you can get it at plus
sixteen hundred. Right now, he's only five back of Cal
raw for the major league lead. So there is some
risk you're taking here. If Judge comes back and he's
not himself, then this is not going to work out.
But it's sixteen to one, he's only five home runs back.
That's a good week for Aaron Judge. It's a good
series for Aaron Judge if he is right. So I
think that those odds. We've talked a lot today about
(27:15):
how it's hard to find good odds on anything. This
one does seem like a no brainer, even if you're
just sprinkling five or ten bucks on it. It does
seem like there's a good chance if Aaron Judge does
come back and he's healthy the way that the Yankees
are saying that he's going to walk away with this.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
I love this one too, by the way, because I
remember I had a bet like this months and months
ago and it was Otani funny. Yeah, And it looks okay,
Otani's two in the home run market, but Judge's one
behind him with that miss time. So it's like, this
is now where you want to talk about that hedging,
Like if I had this with this Otani ticket, I
don't hate the idea of getting a sixteen to one
(27:48):
on Judge and you're getting two of the three top guys.
Obviously Raley has it right now, but it's not impossible
fifteen homers in the last like forty five days from Judge.
It's not out of pocket. So this might be a
scenario where me personally having the Otani bet I could
hedge on it. But just in general, like a sixteen
to one for Judge to do it when he's coming
back in the next couple days. I think this is
(28:08):
a really sneaky one. I like this probably better than
my pick. We're going for the long shots.
Speaker 1 (28:13):
I know that obviously the Mariners are gonna need Cal
as much as they can. But being a catcher, will
he see more rest days down the stretch as we
get later in the season, You think, Welsh, that's.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
An interesting way to speculate it. I'm gonna have to
say no, though. I think, okay, this division is too tight.
You know, Okay, both the three big guys in this division,
they all made moves. The Angels are making moves. They
all were making moves. I think it's super super tight.
This is not the time where you can rest. They
could obviously dh him if they want, but I think
they need his bat in the lineup. Every single day.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
He's played one hundred and seven out of one hundred
and ten games, and they are to catch him a
little bit. But I you know, maybe one day off
a week maybe, but other than that, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
The guy's squads have to be unreal. Holy col Good
for him, Good for him. Man. Well all right, guys,
Well that's gonna do it for us today on the
Betting Pros Podcast, Thank you so much for watching. As always,
the best freeway to support us here is give this
video a thumbs up if you enjoy us type of content. Also,
make sure you're subscribing if you're new, and be sure
to download the Betting Pros app and sink your sportsbooks today.
(29:16):
For Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Take care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting
Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's August,
which means the MLB trade deadline has come and gone.
Angry pirates fans, they're already running a muck here in
western Pennsylvania. It's a tale as all as time. But
what does it mean for the future betting markets? That's
where we're gonna tell you in this episode. I'm your host,
Seth Wilcock, and to help us get to the bottom
(00:22):
of it all, I'm joined by the two host of
leading off Moving Forward, Chris Welsh and the great Joe
Rico from up North. Welsh, have you finally exhaled after
all the movement over the past forty eight hours or so.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Not really, We're kind of still reeling from the whole thing. Winners, losers.
I think I saw something it was like sixty or
ninety prospects somewhere in there that were traded during the deadline.
I'm a prospect guy. A ton of implications, and you know,
we're going to talk about some of the teams that
made moves that I think are are gonna have some
(00:54):
impact on bets we might be comfortable taking a shot at.
And then obviously clearly where some of the lines are
fucking in so crazy deadline. Deep breath, everybody, Let's see
what we can make of it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Joe, how are you hanging in there?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Man? I know it's pretty busy week both on the
content front, and I'm sure your dms right now are
just getting buried with all the questions from the action.
Speaker 4 (01:13):
Do I drop David Bednar, Do I drop Camilo Doval?
Do I pick up this guy? It's crazy, but we
love it, like every year. Who else and I were
talking about this a couple of days ago and he
asked me, do you expect this to be like a
busy deadline? I was like, ah, you know, I think
it's gonna be kind of under the radar. And then
just an explosion.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
It was.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
I couldn't even keep track of it. I was trying
to keep track of it in an article I was
writing yesterday, and I was like, all right, I'll do
a little write up for every trade, and then there's
thirty two trades or something, so it's like, Okay, this
is gonna take me a bit longer than I thought,
but great to be on with you guys. I was
on leading off yesterday when three for three on the bets.
So we're hot, tea. Let's keep it going, all.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Right, man, today's program looks like this.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We'll dive into the biggest movers of the team futures
and the individual player award markets. We're also to kind
of get into the guy's strategy for capitalizing on a
market that is in flux post deadline, and of course
we'll round out the show give you our favorite long
shots for the rest of the way.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
And before we get going, shout out to everyone.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Who's watching us, either on the Betting Pros YouTube channel
or listening on the audio feed. The easiest way to
support us. First, give this video a thumbs up if
you enjually this type of content. Also, make sure you're subscribing.
If you're new, we got a ton of content coming
your way this fall. You want to be included in that.
We want to make sure you don't miss a second
of it. Also, let us know down in the comments
below your favorite current future values. We want to hear
(02:30):
from you and boys, let's go ahead and dive into
the team future markets. A lot of bobbing and weaving
over the past forty eight hours. As we noted so
well s, who is the biggest positive or negative movers
since our last show, perhaps due to some of the
deadline moves.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
So I think one of the bigger movers that has
been like positive or you know how we want to
look at it, like the odds have dropped were the
Seattle Mariners. But this is when I'm picking as a
bet that I really like. So I've actually got two
for you real quick. These are in this this world
of like World Series divisional you know, to make the
playoffs that I think you should pay attention to. But
(03:08):
the Seattle Mariners, I think the World Series market is
where the big thing happened. But it didn't look like
divisionally too much has changed yet, which I thought was
really interesting because they went out and made I think
two of the biggest moves or the biggest moves that
they needed to do for their team structure was bats.
They needed corner in fiddels, They needed some boppers. You
know that ballpark is one of the worst just overall
(03:30):
ballpark factors, So why not get some dudes that are
you know, big RBI, high contact hitter and Josh Naylor
and one of the biggest power hitters in baseball so
far this season with Iohanil Suarez, so I thought, paired
with their incredible rotation, great bullpen, that was the missing piece,
and the Mariners are four and a half games back
on the UH the Astros, who the Astros made some
(03:53):
impactful trades, but they have huge injuries that are going
out there. You've got the Rangers there. I just think
that's a really, really good looking mark that I would
pay attention to. And then keeping in again the World
Series League winner divisions that I think, I don't know
what the move has looked like from where they were
to where they are now. But a bet that I
really like is San Diego for the World Series at
(04:17):
twenty to one right now, because again the San Diego Padres,
if we're talking about the trade deadline making an impact
on either where these bets have moved or bets that
we now like, I love twenty to one for the
Padres right now. I think divisionally they're a solid bet.
I think with them bringing in Mason Miller, bringing in
the bats, they covered all the holes you can get
(04:37):
those starting pitchers to not go as deep as you
need to that I would look at. I think these
are two of the biggest winners from the deadline the
Mariners and Padres. So if you don't like specifically what
I'm saying of like Seattle Division or Padres to win
the World Series or even to make the World Series,
I'll just throw you at you should pay attention to
these two teams in the betting market and play it
(04:57):
however you want Division to to make the World Series
to win. I'm looking all across the board because I
think these two teams are teams that are gonna be
very scary and short series. They both look like they're
a lined for the playoffs. So I gave you a
couple that I personally like, but I think I'm wide
open to any type of bet that you want to
leverage with these teams. If you wanted to take San
Diego to win the Division as well, I think that's
(05:18):
a really good bet.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Man plus seven fifty. That feels like a great value
for a surging Mariners team potentially down the stretch. Here
one of my best friends, he's a Mariners fan. He
always gets his hopes up late in the year and
it never comes to fruition. So, Joe, do you think
this maybe is the year the Mariners can top the
Al West and any thoughts on the Padres out West
as well.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Yeah, I like both of these picks a lot. The Mariners,
their pitching hasn't been as healthy as what we saw
last year, but they're still very, very strong. Ryan wu
has had a couple of rough starts, but he's not
somebody that you worry about. Kirby Gilbert Castillo, like this
is a solid rotation. They got a solid pen, and
like Walsh had talked about, their lineup is what they
really needed to work on. Just you're fighting an uphill
(06:01):
battle in that ballpark. So adding Naylor, adding Suarez, as
much as it probably hurts Welsh to have seen that
happen over the deadline, I think these are really good
moves for Seattle. And then you have San Diego, who
has four or five viable closers right now at this point.
If they there starting gets through five innings, it's game overall.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Baseball, without question.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
I don't know if it's without questions the question. Look
at the Yankees though. Look at the Yankees.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
William Reed stars and then you added Mason Miller and
Adrian Morion, j Ristrata.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
They're fantastic. I think it's either them or the Yankees.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Right.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
It was the Mets for like half an hour there,
and then it's.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Let's agree on this best bullpen in the NL.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Absolutely, absolutely the Yankees. I'll get to the Yankees in
a minute, but the Padres they also added in their
lineup as well, Loreano and O'Hearn. They've kind of been
struggling in left field. I hadn't really been talking about
a lot this year, but I think among left field
ops amongst all teams, they're like twenty six or something
in baseball. So Loreano is a night fit there. I'm
on board with both of these bets, plus two thousand
(07:03):
for the Padres. I might have to pause the stream
here and go place that myself.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Joe, when you're looking at either the World Series market,
the to win the Division or make the playoff market,
are there any risers and follower followers that you've been
kind of tracking over the past week or so with
all the movement happening across the bigs.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
So this one literally hurts me to my soul. I'm
usually on this channel or on Fantasy Pros wearing a
Blue Jay's hat, but today I'm going to be telling
you to bet the Yankees, and I just think when
you look at what they did in their pen. You know,
reasonable people can differ on who has the better bullpen.
But Devin Williams, David Bednar, Camelo Doval, Luke Weaver, Jonathan L. Wisaga,
(07:42):
if he ever gets back to what he used to be,
that could be nasty. The starting rotation, I think they
probably should have added another arm there, But Rodan Freed Warren,
I think that's solid. And then you have the lineup
which has been one of the better lineups in baseball,
buoyed by Aaron Judge, who has been out, but Aaron
Judges expected to return in a couple of days. So
when I look at the Yankees in the American League
(08:03):
East as a whole, this feels like a very winnable
division for them. They're three and a half back of
the Blue Jays right now. You can get them at
plus one fifty. I look at run differential a lot,
and the Blue Jays, as much as I love them, dearly,
they have a twenty three run differential for the whole season.
It ranks fourth in the American League East, and the
Yankees are at plus ninety nine. They've won their last
three games. They're going to be getting judged back. I
think this bullpen is phenomenal, so I think they're worth
(08:26):
a sprinkle for the division and any other kind of
bets you want to look at for the Yankees if
you think they can go all the way, I wouldn't
put it past to you if that's where you're at
right now, especially if you're just looking at winning the
American League. I think the Yankees are a good team
to bet on from a number of different angles right now.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Welsh, what do you think because the Yankees were certainly
one of the heavier favorites to win a division throughout
the entire majors earlier this season when we've been tracking this,
and now they're suddenly back in the division, they have
the air and judge injury. Do you think they've done
enough to push themselves over the top and that plus
one to fifty is worth the worth of there for
the Ale East title?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
What I do like is that you get the plus
money on it. I do I feel they did enough? No,
I actually kind of put them in the loser market
of the trade deadline. I think the trust the Red
Sox I think are worse. I think that's a bigger problem.
I think the Red Sox are much worse because they
sold us that you know, we're gonna trade devers and
we're gonna go get this, and they didn't do anything,
and this was their time to go make a big
(09:23):
impactful move to take this division. So here's my only
problem with it is that I just actually think the
division is very gettable across the board. The Rays were
ten games back, they went out and made moves because
they felt that they could still do something. So I
think it's a four dog race here that I don't
think the Yankees did enough. But I will say this
kind of forgot when you lay out those closers. It
(09:45):
is very padres ASKI really is maybe a one two
one B. But I think those trades were like protecting
the Louise Heel. Like Louise Heel's a starter that Joe
didn't mention that's going to come into the rotation. Having
that type of a bullpen allows Louis Heel to just
stick to five innings. It at least allows all these
guys so you don't have to go deep into game,
So it is kind of a starting pitcher protection play.
(10:08):
I think that you're getting plus money as the top
dogs or you know, close to the top dogs. I
know the Blue Jays are upright there. I think I
could get down with it, but I'm not in love
because I think this division has the most flux. If
in one month from now we were like, can you
believe that the Rays and the Red Sox are at
the top of the division and the Blue Jays are
down in the ad, we wouldn't be surprised. So you know,
(10:31):
I would love better odds. But getting the Yankees of
plus money with the bullpen moves they just made it's
not the worst thing in the world.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Before we keep it moving, I want to tell you
all about our Betting Pros betting systems tool that is
designed to help you find winning strategies and make smarter bets.
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(10:58):
and optimize your bets to increase your chance of success.
Download the benk Pros app today or go to bettingpros
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start making smarter bets today, gentlemen, let's go ahead and
let's move forward to the award markets that have really
seen a seismic shift over the past few weeks. And
(11:18):
Joe Rico, you were out front of one of these
on our last program. So who is your late season
momentum candidate for an award market, whether that's MVP or
Cy Young.
Speaker 4 (11:30):
So I will say that a lot of the odds
at this point there is a dramatic favorite, whether it's
the Cy Young's, MVP's, Rookie of the Year, even Manager
of the Year. Everything seems to be minus three hundred
or so at the least. So you kind of have
to look for these little value plays, and you have
to spin some narratives. And the one that I'm spinning
is cal Rawley. And you know, I think Aaron Judge
is going to be back in a few days. You
(11:51):
have to take the Yankees at face value and that
he's going to be fine, But you also have the
chance that that elbow injury is going to affect his power.
I'm gonna be speaking out of both sides of my
mouth a little bit in this episode, but that is
a possibility that Aaron Judge comes back and he is
not quite what he was before. Cal Rawley is somebody
that is essentially matching him in terms of wins above replacement.
He's at six point four, Judge is at seven point one,
(12:13):
and Rawley's played four more games. But I think that
difference being as close as it is. If Raley gets
to fifty home runs, and it looks like he probably will,
he's at forty two right now, and he has an
eight win season as a catcher. If he's even close
to Judge, I think that there's a chance that Raley
gets it. Judge has a couple MVPs. There's a chance
that there's some voter fatigue there on top of the
fact that maybe he is not quite peak Aaron Judge
(12:35):
when he returns. So there's only really one alternative here
to bet. It is cal Rawley if you are going
to look for the American League MVP, and I think
if you're looking at all the different markets, this is
probably the one that makes sense of the guys who
are not currently favored at the moment.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
Well and Joe, I think on our last show too,
you got him what six seven to one something like that,
so you were well ahead of the curve, so it
kind of played into your hand very favorably. Is is
this cal Rawley's race to lose? You think at this
point Welsh.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
No, I don't think it's his race to lose, but
I think he's neck and neck, like you know, he's
got this. We spun this whole scenario in the last show,
which is very fun, not just then like hey, cal
Rally could be a fun bet, but we get we
gave the scenario, well, what was the scenario. Judge had
to get hurt. Judge had to get hurt for this
market to make a drastic and seismic change. I laid
(13:27):
out the big big one in the trek Schogle, yes,
and Joe laid out the cal Rally one. But it
was all built around the injury. We got that. The
other side of one of my narrative pieces was why
we would go against cal Rally would be that he
tapers back the Mariner's taper back. I'm against that now
because the Mariners have not I think they just won
(13:48):
the trade deadline and cal Rally really hasn't, like had
some big fall. So because those things didn't happen, that
bet looks so good from a time before do I
want to bet it right now at cal Raleigh on
plus money, like plus one and a half to want.
I don't, I don't want. I don't think that's a
good value right now because Aaron Judge is coming back
(14:08):
in a couple of days, and if well, you just
laid up with Joe, just laid out. If the Yankees
are gonna go and win the division and they're gonna
take this East, which is messy right now, it's gonna
be because Aaron Judge is at the forefront of it,
and he's gonna get a lot of juice. And he
was like minus forty five billion or whatever it was
before he got hurt. So you don't think that this
(14:29):
is the opportunity if you want, I actually think to
jump in on a minus money Judge because if he
comes back and he hits, he's gonna snatch this right away.
But I don't think this is gonna be a unanimous
one because let's say, you know, he just gets back
to like vintage Judge and stuff like. I think this
will be a close race because of what cal Raley's
doing as a catcher, and the differentiating factor could be
(14:50):
if the Mariners go on a run like I'm kind
of proposing then it's gonna play out. But my main
thing here is is like I just don't think cal
has this locked up up and I don't think like
really low under two to one odds is where I
would want to go. But a Rico's bet from last show, Yeah,
it's absolutely genius right now.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
So well, not only have you dabbled with the MVP odds,
the cy Young market, but you've also had some tickets
for Rookie of the Year. Where are you going here?
Is there any you know, potential late season riser, someone
who's gaining momentum down the stretch that you think could
make make a push in an award that that you
are comfortable betting at their current odds after the trade deadline.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
So Joe laid it out a little bit. Here's the
problem with the award market. It's messy, and I think
everything you've got to spin a big narrative. And this is,
by the way, because I'm going to take a similar
path to Joe, even though I was like, I don't
really love the col rally. Yeah, there's nothing else to
bet unless you are in the true gambling and you
want to do you want to spin a narrative because
I mean, I'll give you one real quick, that's not mine.
(15:52):
I actually have this ticket and I would, God what
I love for it to cash. But like, if you
want to spin the narrative that Nick Kurtz could get hurt,
Cam Smith is like the most insane good odd right now.
If the Astros are gonna pick back up, he's five.
I have a twenty five to one ticket. Personally, I
think he's twenty five to one right now. Again, if
Kurts were to get hurt and miss you know, three
(16:13):
weeks guys a Smith, Yeah, he's on a nice tear.
The Astros just got some of their guys back. Like
you could absolutely see where he could get But that
is totally speculative, and that's hard to do in this
market and all the odds. There's no NL value. I
think there's kind of little value in the AL. We're
talking MVP Rookie of the Year. It's so far onto
Nick Kurtz right now. It's like minus one ninety in
(16:36):
the NL for Drake Baldon. There's just not a lot
of value. The one I'm going to come back to
and this is probably again in the same vein of
what Joe is doing, and I have had this ticket
for a little while, is Zach Wheeler is still plus money.
And the negative I would suppose is Paul Skeens is
finally picking up a couple of wins, which is not good.
But this team looks as bad as ever. And here
would be my narrative spin. Zach Wheeler right now has
(16:58):
more wins, a better K per nine, and the lower
walk per nine doesn't have that. I mean Skeins has
ERA right now, it's sub two, but we're talking low
two's for Zach Wheeler. And they just went out and
got a closer who has moved way up in the
market who can shut down games to continue to get wins.
Can they really, Let's just arguably say Paul Skeins has
a two ERA two ARA with nine wins. Can they
(17:23):
take that away from Zach Wheeler, who could have sixteen
wins and a two point three ERA and more strike.
I don't know. I think a Phillies are going to
be on a tear. I think there's a win perspective
to it. Wheeler's been important, he's got more protection for wins,
He's plus one thirty in markets. I have much better
odds earlier in the year at like eleven to one.
But this is probably of all of these, I feel
(17:44):
more comfortable about Wheeler than I do jumping in on
cal Raley, and unfortunately nothing else is I think, really
bettable in the awards market. Again, unless you speculate and
you want to be a gambling man and take a
twenty five to one Cam Smith, or you want to
take a twenty to one Kyle Schwarber if something happens
to Otani, which it was kind of floating out there, Like,
those are the plays if you want to really try
(18:06):
to make a calculated bet or play that like buy
out market, you know what I'm saying, Like, you go
and you get one of these guys and then the
market moves a little bit and then you can cash out.
Maybe there's a couple of those, but it's really between Wheeler,
I think, and cal Raleigh if you want like half
decent odds.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Right now, I don't want to make this show about me,
but I am the host, so I am going to like,
what are we doing in Pittsburgh, man? Like we get
nothing back for any of these players, like single A prospects.
I just don't understand, and then we have all these
expiring contracts, we just leam on the team for the year,
like like Joe helped me out, Like is it just
are we just dump at salary? Is that all we're doing.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
I don't know what you guys are doing. To be
perfectly honest, I don't know why IKF wasn't traded. I
don't know why Fam wasn't traded. I don't know why
Keller wasn't traded. At least you traded Bednar. But from
what I understand and Welsh can speak more to the prospects,
it was kind of an underwhelming return for benit No and.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
That's why I went because you actually, you guys got
kids is not for this show. But Raphael Flores was
a great get for them, super sneaky, good power. I
think up to triple a catcher. I actually really like
that get for what is you know, okay, a rental
type of closer. They didn't blow it out of the market,
but I actually think they did a decent job in trade.
(19:20):
But it's more negative that they had so many players
they did not trade and get anything for. But they
did a good job on the bed in our side.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Free bet I'm giving everyone right right now. I'm betting the.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Under on the Pirate season win total next year. Just
gonna just gonna do it out of fight. I'm gonna
go down there, P and C. I'll still enjoy my
icy light down by the river, but but I'm gonna be,
you know, secretly hoping potentially for some losses out there.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
The gambler fight.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch since opening day.
Joe Piece of Pat, Chris Welsh, and Joe Rico have
been live every weekday at twelve pm Eastern for leading off.
That's your daily dose of all things at baseball, news, bets,
and fancy advice, all in one place. Ask questions, get insight.
An interact live falls now at twitch dot tv slash
(20:08):
Fancy Pros, and you're never gonna miss a stream. A
bigger lineup of exclusive, interactive live content is on the way,
including some NFL stuff.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
Has been a lot of fun over there in the
Twitch streets over the past few weeks, so make sure
you're hanging out with us over there at Twitch dot
tv slash Fantasy Pros. All right, guys, let's talk about
the trade deadline and how to exploit this shifting futures landscape. Well,
do you think the window is now open that this
market is potentially exploitable? It should we be diving in
(20:38):
head first right now? Or is it still kind of
proceed with caution?
Speaker 2 (20:42):
No, I think I laid it out. I think the
what I started the show with it in my mind
is teams that made significant moves that I think can
close the gap, that still have odds that you want
to play. So I would say, yes, it is exploitable.
The example is the Padres, the Mariners, whether it's playing divisions,
getting to the World Series, like I pitching, you know,
(21:04):
pitching is going to get you in September in October,
and I'm looking at the teams. I don't think enough
teams made big starting pitcher moves. But these teams that
went heavy in on on believers, I think that's a
great play why, Like the Padres, the Mariners already had
such a great rotation to me that they were missing
the offensive piece. They did that. So yeah, I don't
(21:25):
think the market the markets are going to move quick
on teams like the Dodgers, and frankly would be the
Yankees and the Red Sox. But guess what, none of
the big teams made the big, impactful moves. It was
these smaller teams that the markets are not willing to
move off of the big dogs or anything. And that's why,
Like the Padres are a good get because they're still
facing up against the Dodgers, but the Padres made moves
(21:46):
literally across the board. So yes, the answer to it,
and I think I laid it out with my opening
vets is I do think the trade market creates some
exploitable opportunities.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Joe, what's your strategy when it comes to unit allocation
here for August in the futures market? Are we dumping
a bunch back in? Is this a time to maybe
start hedging some of your other bets that didn't fan
out earlier this season? How are you kind of playing
this as we head down the stretch and you know
odds are going to continue to get shorter and shorter
as the season progresses here.
Speaker 4 (22:17):
Yeah, for me, when you're betting it's more front loaded,
I like to place the more earlier in the season.
You get the better odds at this time of the year,
Like we've kind of laid out. If you're betting on
any of the futures, either you're taking a huge long
shot that's going to be, you know, plus one thousand
or even worse, or you're betting somebody who is like,
you know, you're taking Drake Baldwin to Rookie of the
(22:37):
Year and it's minus two hundred. So I feel like
you get a lot more value betting earlier in the season.
This time of year, you know a lot of things
are going to change in terms of the Marcus after
the trade deadline, and I think maybe sometimes they can
overcorrect a little bit. Baseball is a team sport more
than maybe any other sport, and one player can only
do so much, so they are going to be teams.
Maybe it's you know, and take any team that made
(22:58):
a big acquisition, they're gonna they're gonna see their odds
that are shifted, whether it's for the Division, World Series, whatever.
But a lot of the time it doesn't make a huge,
huge impact the way those teams are expecting and the
way the odds makers are expecting. I mean this is
an extreme example. Well, look at Mike Trout. The guy's
never won anything. You can be as great as you
can possibly be, and you're only one guy. So these
teams that are acquiring one or two players and you're
(23:19):
seeing big line shifts, I think some of the time
that's overplayed and they probably shouldn't be moving as much
as they are.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
You know, something that I often like to do in
motorsports futures or also in NFL futures is start parlaying
some of these heavy favorites at the end of the year.
So maybe you go get yourself like a scooball Cy
Young ticket, you know, put that with Tawny or something
like that, and start kind of building that that positive
(23:46):
e ev up as we close the season. But just
something I remember last year, I put out of Joe
Burrow come Back Player of the Year ticket with a
Josh Allen MVP and what was able to get a
nice return, even though that that was way more of
a sweater than it should have been because Lamar was
awesome down the stretch.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
But uh, let's go ahead, though, guys.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
Let's round out the program as we always do with
our favorite futures long shots of the month. Welsh, this
has kind of been your sweet spot this season. So
what do you have for us today that we need
to be investing in before it's gone.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
Yeah, and the it's just so much more diminished. We
had such cool ones yeah in the season, and just
things have flowed, so it is a lot harder to
find something that is you know, we take like a
usually like you know, eight to one plus you know,
we want to go in bigger. Yeah, this one does
stand out to me, and I've talked a lot about
it in this show. But I'm going to go back
to the Podres here, and I obviously like you've got
(24:36):
the Phillies who are dangerous, You've got the Dodgers that
are dangerous. They've got to get through that divisionally, But
you can play the podres to get to the World
Series eleven to one right now. So there's a big task,
and I suppose you could probably argue, like you know,
the al might be a better place to play that,
but like, by the way, the Mariners to get to
(24:56):
the World Series, that's it's worse odds. And they you know,
really Yankees, so that you know they are I think
it's closer to eight to one. But I just really
I love that they went all in. I think it's
you know, it's imperative that they obviously win for what
they did. But you take O'Hearn, who is going into
a worse environment for a lefty, but with what he's
(25:18):
done this year, it's more lineup protection. Loreano defensively and offensive.
Loreano has had a crazy, sneaky season. They've got bench
help if Jackson Merrill just picks it up on the
back half. This is paired with a you Darvish who
found a mechanical change and just spun a great one,
a bullpen that will allow Dylan Cees to not go
(25:39):
deep into games. Michael King, who could be rehabbing this
weekend that we could get back very soon. You've got
your rotation kind of back. You have one of them,
from Estrata to Morione to Jason Adam to Robert Swarez
to Mason Miller. You could go. You could let your
starters go four innings if you want, and put out
those relievers. They've got a great bullpen. They've got solid
(26:00):
starters that need a few things to go their way.
And I think a lineup that is now fully competitive
across the board in where the Dodgers are a little
wonky right now. I think the Phillies are probably the
scariest scariest here, But at eleven to one, I like
taking this bet because if they do move through the
World Series, you're going to get biout opportunities or through
the playoffs, so you got some biout opportunities. But at
(26:20):
eleven to one, with what the Padres did, I think
this is like a solid long shot bet. Whatever making
in August.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
Joe, anything you're seeing from a long shot standpoint right
now that we should be considering.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
So, like I mentioned earlier, I'm going to be speaking
out of both sides of my mouth a little bit,
and I'm sitting on the fence here because there's a
couple of different things that could happen with Aaron Judge.
Like I mentioned earlier, maybe he comes back and he's
hampered a little bit, and that would leave an opportunity
for cal Rawley. But what if Aaron Judge comes back
and he's fine. Because this is a very short stay
on the IL doesn't seem to be any huge problem.
You can bet Aaron Judge to lead major League Baseball
(26:54):
and home runs, and you can get it at plus
sixteen hundred. Right now, he's only five back of Cal
raw for the major league lead. So there is some
risk you're taking here. If Judge comes back and he's
not himself, then this is not going to work out.
But it's sixteen to one, he's only five home runs back.
That's a good week for Aaron Judge. It's a good
series for Aaron Judge if he is right. So I
think that those odds. We've talked a lot today about
(27:15):
how it's hard to find good odds on anything. This
one does seem like a no brainer, even if you're
just sprinkling five or ten bucks on it. It does
seem like there's a good chance if Aaron Judge does
come back and he's healthy the way that the Yankees
are saying that he's going to walk away with this.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
I love this one too, by the way, because I
remember I had a bet like this months and months
ago and it was Otani funny. Yeah, And it looks okay,
Otani's two in the home run market, but Judge's one
behind him with that miss time. So it's like, this
is now where you want to talk about that hedging,
Like if I had this with this Otani ticket, I
don't hate the idea of getting a sixteen to one
(27:48):
on Judge and you're getting two of the three top guys.
Obviously Raley has it right now, but it's not impossible
fifteen homers in the last like forty five days from Judge.
It's not out of pocket. So this might be a
scenario where me personally having the Otani bet I could
hedge on it. But just in general, like a sixteen
to one for Judge to do it when he's coming
back in the next couple days. I think this is
(28:08):
a really sneaky one. I like this probably better than
my pick. We're going for the long shots.
Speaker 1 (28:13):
I know that obviously the Mariners are gonna need Cal
as much as they can. But being a catcher, will
he see more rest days down the stretch as we
get later in the season, You think, Welsh, that's.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
An interesting way to speculate it. I'm gonna have to
say no, though. I think, okay, this division is too tight.
You know, Okay, both the three big guys in this division,
they all made moves. The Angels are making moves. They
all were making moves. I think it's super super tight.
This is not the time where you can rest. They
could obviously dh him if they want, but I think
they need his bat in the lineup. Every single day.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
He's played one hundred and seven out of one hundred
and ten games, and they are to catch him a
little bit. But I you know, maybe one day off
a week maybe, but other than that, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
The guy's squads have to be unreal. Holy col Good
for him, Good for him. Man. Well all right, guys,
Well that's gonna do it for us today on the
Betting Pros Podcast, Thank you so much for watching. As always,
the best freeway to support us here is give this
video a thumbs up if you enjoy us type of content. Also,
make sure you're subscribing if you're new, and be sure
to download the Betting Pros app and sink your sportsbooks today.
(29:16):
For Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Take care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting
Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
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