College Football Week 1 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 749) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.
It's arguably the greatest stretch of the year, with five
days straight of college football action coming your way as
all one hundred and thirty six teams are back in action.
Of course, in this episode, we'll break down our Week
one early.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Picks and line movement predictions. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock,
ready to turn the page after another underwhelming Week zero
for the bank roll, and I'm joined by a man
who while all eyes on Columbus, Ohio, as his Texas
Longhorn season hangs in the balance from the go, Scott Bogman. Boggs,
how are you feeling as we prepare for a fun

(00:42):
slate of games in Week one?

Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah, I mean I was exactly five hundred week zero,
so go, you know, right down the middle.

Speaker 4 (00:50):
I guess it's not a losing week, so we'll take it.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
I feel like Week zero last year was fairly brutal,
but I'm looking forward to this week.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Man.

Speaker 4 (00:58):
We get the full slate.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
I think it's ninety four games wow, from Thursday to
Monday here, so we have games all over the place,
a lot of SCS matchups, but also massive earth shaking
games heres, starting with Texas and Ohio State on Saturday,

(01:21):
but there's some big games on Thursday and Friday. We
have a Sunday game that's huge, a Monday game. Like,
we got everything that you could want here, So I
am super excited to get this season rolling.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
If you're a college football fan, it really is the
best weekend in sports. No NFL to steal the spotlight.
Only thing you might have going on is maybe some
fantasy football drafts. I know I'll have a couple going
on this Weekend's enjoying the fun. And before we get going,
shout out to everyone who's hangout with us, either on
the bank Pro's YouTube channel or the audio feed. The
easiest freeway to support us here. Give this video a

(01:53):
thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content, and
if you're new, make sure he subscribes. You don't miss
a moment of college football betting coverage this season. We
have a lot of episodes each and every week for you,
so we want to make sure you're staying up to
date and building that bank roll as we continue to roll.
And speaking of building the bank roll, let's get into
the week zero recap and reaction Number twenty two Iowa State.

(02:16):
They outlasted number seventeen Kansas State twenty four to twenty
one in Dublin. We are gained very sloppy conditions early on.
Couldn't see many of the hash markers by halftime fireworks repaint, Yeah, yeah,
fireworks went off early in this one. Kansas State running
back Dylan Edwards failed to feel the opening punt. Clearly

(02:38):
got hurt there. We didn't see him the rest of
the game. So that was a weird one, bogs kind
of starting off the week. So let's start there before
we get into the other games and the results from there.
What did you take away from Iowa State Kansas State?
If anything?

Speaker 3 (02:52):
Yeah, what a good game, right first of all, like
right down the middle pretty much for the entire game.
But Dylan Edwards, I mean, this is what we were
worried about. He just didn't think it would be on
the very first time he touched the ball of the
season he would get hurt, but a little undersized at
the position, so we were worried about the workload. But
he gets hurt here. Obviously that hamstrung this Kansas State offense.

(03:14):
But they had their opportunities they just did not take
advantage specifically in the first half. When you know muffed
that fumble, you hold them and then you get nothing
out of it. When you go for it on fourth down,
you get nothing out of it. You don't take the
points to go up in Ireland on week zero in
a weird.

Speaker 4 (03:32):
Slate, like just take the lead man. That was such
a weird decision.

Speaker 3 (03:37):
And then I think you saw the tail two halves
in terms of what the Iowa State offensive line did,
and just you know, big credit to Matt Campbell for
not just talking about making adjustments. Making the adjustments. If
you saw Carson Hansen in that second half running over
that right side of the line, they had no Kansas
State had no answer for it. So that was you know,
we were worried about the offensive line. Trell talked about the

(03:59):
potential improvement. We absolutely did not see it in the
first half. They looked miserable. Beck was getting harassed and
sacked and throwing picks and almost picks like he was.
The line was breaking in the first half. So the
second half I felt decent, But then we saw them
make that adjustment run over the right side, and that
was all they really had to do. They converted some

(04:20):
big third downs and Kansas State just did not have
the juice without their running back to score points and
they made some bad decisions. So yeah, I was wrong
on this one. It was close. Like I thought, rain
got involved here, which they do in every Ireland game.
So just we're gonna have to keep that in mind
for next year and moving forward, like that game is
gonna get rain either before or after or during, Like

(04:42):
there's gonna be rain. It's like Seattle over there. So
but yeah, very interesting game that I was on the
wrong side of.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
Yeah, I mean, first of all, I think there's a
question mark of Chris Kleiman going for it. You're backed
up on your own thirty it's still three point game
eight minutes left. I thought that was a questionable decision.
And I will say, like as poor of some decision
making there was from k State down the stretch, Iowa
State just showed up there. Like I really liked how
the end of that second quarter early second half, we

(05:11):
saw a lot of Abu Sama on the ground and
we didn't see Hanson. We were kind of wondering where
he is. He comes out with fresh legs in the
fourth quarter, starts mowing people down and rock O Beck
Man like, give it up to this guy. He was
dealing in this game, had a lot of drops early
on from his receivers kind of getting adjusted. We didn't
see some of the big transfers really step up there.
It was kind of some of those homegrown guys that

(05:32):
have been behind Higgins and behind Noel on this roster
really step up there. So I got to give it
to Iowa State.

Speaker 4 (05:39):
Man.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
They really impressed me here. But you know it could
be weird with them coming back off this game and
take him a couple weeks to get back in the
swing of things, and you know, prayers up for Dylan Edwards. Man,
let's hope we see that guy soon because he is
way too talented to be on the shelf.

Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, and also Avery John's dad, what are you doing bro? Relax?

Speaker 2 (06:00):
Yeah? I agree. There more games, more action. UNLV survives
Idaho State thirty eight thirty one. That was one we
were all, I think on the wrong side of I
thought UNLV would run away with that one. They did not.
That was a nail bier. Kansas beats down on Fresno
State thirty one to seven, and WKU pulls away late
from Sam Houston State forty one twenty four and Hawaii

(06:22):
does it again Baby the Week zero Heroes twenty three
to twenty against Stanford with some bad quarterback play there
for the Cardinal Boggs takeaway from the rest of the
Week zero slate.

Speaker 3 (06:33):
Yeah, so, I think the one game that we really
whipped on because I mean, we talked about the closeness
of this Io State k State game. We thought Kansas
was going to blow the doors off. We knew that
that Hawaii Stanford game was gonna be weird and kind
of down to the wire, which it did, and Hawaii
wins with the lowest time in possession of the week.

(06:54):
I think it was like just under twenty three minutes
they held the ball and they still end up plinting
that game because Stanford is just miserable that that that
UNLV Idaho State game. You know, I think we just
didn't take into account, first of all, improvements from Idaho
State and some of those trick plays. You know, we
didn't think about how they had all offseason to work
on this game plan to try to stay in this

(07:15):
game with UNLV, and they busted out some trick plays
that worked. We saw idiotic mistakes on the UNLV side
inforty Orgy going to the end zone just fumbles the ball, right,
it just gets hit alex Or. Yeah, oh my god,
what a complete screw up that was. That was painful
to watch. Turnovers, l blown coverage is just not It

(07:39):
was just it was a bad game from U and
LV E theither too many moving parts, So just keep
that in mind for teams that are U you know, overhauling,
it's not all going to come together immediately for a
lot of these uh you know teams specifically with lots
and lots of newcomers. Un LV is still one of
the better teams in the Mountain West. We expect them
to contend for that conference, but this was an embarrassing start.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
Yeah, I'm completely there with you, man, and you know,
shout out to Sam Houston State. They kept it closed
for a while. The legs of Wilson. We're starting to
get after WKU. But I got to give it up
to that quarterback man Maverick kind of mc ivor. Yeah, dude,
just coming in. I was doubting the fs fcs to
FBS jump, but he played really good down the stretch

(08:25):
man and they were just in much more rhythm than
Sam Houston State. S HU had some big plays, but
I still felt good about that one ended up for
the week, though I'm down for units heading into week one.
It's a similar story to last year. The only bet
I hit one and two on my picks. I did
miss on the money line sprinkle for Sam Houston State
and my parlay, but I did hit that IOWA stay

(08:47):
all under twenty six and a half and Boggs talk
about an absolute sweater man. That was crazy because you
texted our group, Hey, sorry about that one. Seth looks
like you know you also had a bad beating here
right at the end, touchdown gets called back at the
one yard line. They kneel it from there and we
walk away with that one. So I was least nies
let's go.

Speaker 4 (09:08):
Yeah, I I was up.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
I did two units on my big bet of the week,
which was w k U Sam Houston State.

Speaker 4 (09:15):
Over I did more.

Speaker 3 (09:17):
I did a couple more units on my one prop
that I hit out of three props, so I ended
up up like maybe a year and a half on
week zero. So three and three on the on the
official picks up a little bit in the bank account,
so well that's a win.

Speaker 4 (09:32):
That's a win, baby, We'll take it.

Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, absolutely, Well, let us know how you guys did
in week zero and appreciate everyone who tailed or faded.
I saw some people checking back with us in the
parlay Episoderell did his parlay.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
And yeah, that's awesome and that was a great Everything
worked out well for him there, It really did.

Speaker 2 (09:50):
It did.

Speaker 4 (09:50):
And Hanson also, like Drell was on a Week zero
he was great.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
Absolutely, So we will have to come up with a
punishment for the parlays episode if people were you know,
put some ideas in the comments, so we'll respond to
those and it gets some ideas throughout flowing here guys
a way, But let's go ahead. Let's move forward to
the week one early line predictions and line movement. Here
we go with the first ap top twenty five team
they'll be back in action is the twenty fifth rank

(10:18):
of Boise State Broncos, who are six point favorites against
the South Florida Bulls Thursday night at five thirty pm
Eastern time. Boise State comes off a storybook season where
they won twelve games the Mountain West Championship in advance
to the College Football Playoffs. In large part that was
thanks to Heisman Trophy runner up running back Ashton Gent
who's drafted six overall by the Las Vegas Raiders. The

(10:41):
Broncos now have to replace him leading and leading wide
receiver Cam Campire. They also have their top three SAT
getters who have moved to other programs or graduated. South
Florida finished, meanwhile, seven and six for the second straight season,
good for six in the American Conference. Highly decorated quarterback
Buying them Brown is back after suffering a season ending

(11:03):
injury just six games into the season. There's a ton
of turnover at the skill position players that will be
in effect in this one as well, and the defense
largely remains intact for South Florida, though Bogman this line
is shrunk considerably since opening right around ten while if
total sits anywhere from sixty two and a half to
sixty four points, Where do you think this goes? And

(11:25):
do you have an early lean?

Speaker 4 (11:27):
Uh?

Speaker 3 (11:28):
Yeah, I mean I think this has been trending towards
South Florida for the whole week, so, I know, week
zero we see a lot of bets on favorites, a
lot of picks on favorites, and I think a lot
of that is natural, Like you know what you've seen.
You saw a lot of boys you Stay. Last year,
they were in the playoffs, so I think some of
the later money will come in on them. So but

(11:48):
I don't know how much closer this line can get.
I hope it does. I hope it keeps shrinking towards
Boise Stay. I'll say this right now, I would lean
towards the Broncos, but I wouldn't be this number. If
this gets down below five, I think I'm interested. I
just think that there's you know, there's a lot coming
back for Boise State, but I mean their ninth and

(12:11):
overall returning production, seventh on offense, thirty seventh on defense.
That's a lot of pieces coming back to an offense
that was in the playoff last year. But it's pretty obvious,
Like you know, the guy that you turn around to
hand the ball off to three, he touched about three
hundred ninety seven times ash and genty last last season.

Speaker 4 (12:29):
He's gone, so it's replacing him. Is this going to work?

Speaker 3 (12:32):
Can Maddox Madson put it on his shoulders a little
bit on the USF side, like this was clearly a
different team when Brown went out last year, and I
still you know, they're gonna blitz a lot. I think
in terms roster strength, they're still second best in this conference.

Speaker 4 (12:49):
I like the under. I think both defenses are strong.

Speaker 3 (12:52):
Boisse State's gonna have to figure it out on offense
without gent Alex Golish, the coach of USF makes so
many great adjustments. This team outscored opponents one hundred and
twenty three to fifty six in the third quarter, so
one of the better adjustment makers at halftime in Goalish.
So I just think that with Boise State having a

(13:13):
very good roster returning Stonarch production on offense and on defense,
and with Byron Brown kind of being a question, Boise
State having to figure out the new repetition on offense
and the new you know who is going to lead
this team. I like the under, and we've seen the
money flow towards the under as well, So that's the

(13:35):
number that I like a little bit more. Here it
is sixty two and a half right now, and I
believe it moved from sixty three and a half last night,
so we're seeing it move a decent amount here.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yeah, I'm with you like. For me, I'm not taking
a side in this one because my heart's definitely tell
me go ahead, go back those Broncos. They're coming off
a great season. But when you really look a little
bit closer, both these teams were right around five hundred
ats last season and to the over as well, so
not really a clear edge there. And these are both
veteran quarterbacks, so you would think, hey, let's let's look

(14:10):
for some points to me, even go the over route,
But as I said, the USF defense returning a ton
of starters, so I can't really get a good read
on this one. So it's gonna be a pass for
me right now. As well, Bogs leaning towards that over, it's.

Speaker 3 (14:22):
Really likely in that game too, Okay, okay, I want
to mention it.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
And before we keep it moving, I wanted to remind
everyone that you can actually track line movement in real
time with the Betting pros app. Download the free Betting
Pros app for iOS and Android, and with sportsbook Sink,
you can automatically track your bets across all major sportsbooks
in just one spot. Easily monitor your bet performance by

(14:48):
sport and bet type, including game picks, props and parlays
create a custom betting system to find winning trends and
profitable opportunities. Get a seven day free chat style of
Betting Pros Premium by downingtheapp at bettingpros dot com slash
app and using the promo code Juice and acting your

(15:08):
trial on the upgrade screen. On Friday, the Colorado Buffaloes
get their season open when the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets travel
to Boulder. Tech is favored by three and a half points,
and for good reason. They're coming off a consecutive seven
to six season under Brent key. Dole Threat quarterback Haynes
King is back for a sixth season after leading the

(15:28):
acc and completion percentage, scoring twenty five combined touchdowns. The
robin to his batman Jamal Haynes also in the backfield
returning and while transfer wide receiver Eric Rivers and veteran
Malik Rutherford hope to replace Eric Singleton Junior's production out
wide primetimes. Buffs were nine to four last season, just

(15:49):
missing out on that Big twelve championship game on tiebreakers.
They are returning eight starters, four on defense, four on offense.
They are bringing back four offensive linemen three of which,
though are projected to be second stringers, but all their
skilled position players are transfers or sending up the depth
chart after losing the likes of shad Or Sanders, Travis Hunter,
Will Sheppard, Jimmy Horn Junior, and even Lejonte Western all

(16:13):
to the NFL. Still unknown of being liberty transfer quarterback
Kayden Salter or the four star red shirt freshman Julian
Juju Lewis, but it's projected to be somewhat of a
platoon at quarterback here, Boggs, we've seen absolutely no line
movement in this game. So do you think it'll be
remain stagnant throughout the week? You think we'll get some
you know, last minute buff betters like we have in

(16:34):
the past.

Speaker 4 (16:35):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (16:36):
I think that's pretty fair to say, like the line,
you would expect it to open up towards a more
popular team. The more popular team right now is clearly Colorado,
So I think you're right about that, seth. If it
does open, it will open in favor of Georgia Tech.
So this line would come down and move towards Colorado.

(16:56):
Here rain likely in this game, But honestly, the biggest
quest question is how quickly. Can the Buffalo's offense get
back to where they were last year and it can
they get back to where they were last year without Shador?

Speaker 4 (17:09):
I think that's the biggest question.

Speaker 3 (17:11):
Seven starters, seven transfer starters on offense, six on defense.
So again we're working it through the portal here. And
is gelling going to be difficult early in the season right?

Speaker 4 (17:23):
And are we going to.

Speaker 3 (17:25):
Have that old trope set of you have two quarterbacks
meaning you really don't have any I think that's my
concern on the Colorado side. My concern for this game
on the Georgia Tech side is if Colorado can score,
does Georgia Tech have enough juice to keep paying? That's
my question there. So I'm going to stay away from

(17:46):
this game. But I know that you are a Georgia
Tech Stan, so I will let you talk me into
Georgia Tech if you have some points that maybe I'm
not thinking of here. But if you're Lukewarma on this game,
I think I'm going to be more lukewarm on this one.

Speaker 2 (18:01):
Well, I can tell you I'm not. This is something
I'm definitely gonna be getting invested with, probably my first
game of the weekend. I will have some action on
and I saw you in the utubh tube comments. Everyone's saying, hey,
this is a pixel prediction show. You guys didn't make
a ton of picks. Well, we have more episodes that
come out later in the week as well that we
will have action down on. But not every game is
going to get a pick, because that's how we manage

(18:21):
our bank roll. We bet smarter, not harder here at betting.

Speaker 3 (18:24):
I'll give you my lien on any game, yes, yes,
But to pick a game yes, means that I am
putting my dollars exactly, so I you know that is
the difference. Like if you want me to pick and
give a lien on every game, I'll tell you which
way I'll lean it. But for my my bank role,
I'm not gonna bet every single game we speak on here.

Speaker 2 (18:43):
And look what I like about tech here is I'm
going to try to wait and see if I can
get a two and a half line. I want to
have that key number if it is a field goal game.
But this is a squad that was already better last
year in total offense thirty fifth to Colorado sixty ninth,
and that was a team that had s Sanders that
had Travis Hunter also better in total defense as well,

(19:04):
forty third to fifty, so not a huge gap there.
But Georgia Tech Man, this is also a team that
I think Brent Kee gets up for big games. I
think he's a motivational coach. And that's part of it here,
is that they played their best in the big games
last year, Bogs, they upset Miami, they took Georgia to
eight overtimes in clean, old fashioned hate And I just
don't trust a Colorado offense that was sluggish at times

(19:26):
to begin last season and now they've completely revamped offense.
Like like last year, they had so much continuity and
it was still a struggle. They still almost weren't beating
FCF teams off the rip there. So I'm very happy
with Georgia Tech. I was hoping maybe I could just
lay the money line. Looks like that's not gonna be
the case. I will have to bet at ats, but yeah,
I'm gonna wait for a little bit of a boost here.

(19:47):
I know they're coming and I'm gonna go with the
Yellow Jackets in this one.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
Yeah, And I'll tell you too, if we want to
pick every game instead of bet every game, I will
pick Georgia Tech in this game as well, But my
best lean I feel like would be towards the under.
I think we have a lot of moving pieces in Colorado.
You lose a big piece in Eric Singleton of this
offense in Georgia Tech. And if that Colorado offense does

(20:12):
put up some points, I think you want to slow
it down. If you're Georgia Tech, you want to run
the ball, you want to bleed that clock a little bit.
If Colorado does come out firing on all senators offensively.
So for me, my biggest lean to be towards the over,
and I would pick Georgia Tech.

Speaker 2 (20:26):
Yeah, I can totally understand that. Man. I just think
if Colorado is any shot in this game, they have
to stop the run game, which maybe it will be
a little bit easier like it was for our friends
Iowa State in the rain, right, Like, maybe there won't
be as much ground game because it will be harder
to run block. But Colorado seventy first against the run
last year. I don't think that defense has improved in

(20:48):
the slightest. So let's go ahead, though I don't want
to bury the lead too much. Let's turn our attention
to arguably one of the most anticipated games of the season,
Number one Texas at number three Ohio State Herbie Reese,
Dez and Pat and the Boys. They'll be front and
center for what will be League Corso's last ride on
college game Day and what day to go off man?

(21:08):
What eight absolute day. The defending national champions, they open
as a three and a half point favorite, but that
has shrunked pretty much everywhere from either one and a
half to two and a half at most books. Ohio
State they're returning nine starters, just three on that defense.
They lost a ton JTT captain Jacks gone as well,
but it does help that they still have arguably the

(21:29):
best defensive player in the country, Caleb Downs at that
safety star position. And I think this marks what will
be successful tenure for Julians, saying at quarterback he's replacing
Will Howard, also running backs Trayvon Henderson, Quinn Shawn Jenkins.
They're in the NFL. They're replaced by James People, who
is a homegrown Ohio State prospect, and then WVU transfer CJ. Donaldson,

(21:52):
who's had a couple of really good seasons out there
in Morgantown. But I'd say that it helps all of
them that they also have the best receiver in college
football out there with them drawing coverage, Jeremiah Smith. And
despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL, your
Texas Longhorns, Bogs, they're returning nine starters, six of which
are on defense, and although a pretty new offensive line,

(22:13):
it's all players who have been with the program for
multiple seasons. Of course, all eyes will be yeah, yeah, yeah,
it's a factory down there. They just keep finding the man,
and I think it's safe to say that all eyes
will be on redshirt sophomore quarterback Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning.
He's gonna be taking over after sitting behind Quinn youwers
for the most of two seasons. Did get a little

(22:35):
bit of runway last year in a couple less meaningful games.
But Boggs, this is going to be one of those
games where a lethal amount of money is on the
line here, especially being Week one. I mean, you could
fill banks, you could build towns, you can build cities
for this. So where is this line heading? And is
there a chance that this is Texas being the favorite

(22:57):
by Saturday? Maybe a pick them by Saturday morning?

Speaker 3 (23:00):
I mean I could see it getting down that way,
and I think that's the way it's trending.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
Right.

Speaker 4 (23:05):
The money has been flowing a little bit towards the
Longhorns here.

Speaker 3 (23:08):
So I would expect that to continue. But these are
two of the most popular fan bases in the country,
so this could you know, you get a glot of
Ohio State bets pushing it one way, a glout of
Texas bets pushing it the other way. I mean, it
really can go either way, and I feel like the
game is like that too. I think the big question
here in this game set is how good is Julian

(23:32):
saying from the rip right? Because everything else is there.
Everything else is there for both these squads. The rest
of the offense is awesome. Smith Tate Claire transferring in
from Minnesota. The highest ranked unit on offense for Ohio
State is the old line, so everything is there for
Saying to succeed, he just has to do it.

Speaker 4 (23:53):
We can say the same thing about Arch.

Speaker 3 (23:54):
Texas is a number one ranked wide receiver group in
the nation, number five at running back, number six at
old line. When of the best transfer you know tight
ends in the country, and Jack Enry's coming in as well,
so it's going to be can our channel of pressure.
How good is Julian saying to start right those That's
the thing On offense, I think both these defenses are

(24:15):
tested early by the run game you saw, you know,
the interior of the Texas offensive line go to the NFL,
and so we bring in transfers that But that's the
big test. You're not you don't want to pass and
test the edge rushers because this might be the hardest
pass rush that Julian Sam will face in his collegiate career,
in his first game with Colin Simmons at edge. So

(24:37):
you want to run the ball up the gut. I
think Texas wants to do that as well. All those
alignment that you mentioned, and you get Wisner back, you
get Baxter back. I think early in this game we're
going to see a lot of running at each other.
I would expect a low scoring first half and then
if things open up, I think they would open up
in the second half. When we've run the ball. Now
we're play action, We're getting some big hitters deep. We

(24:59):
have a little confidence from some of the short passes
early to now rip it deep. You'll see deep shots
taken early, right, because everyone is going to expect that.
But you have to pick and choose your spots. I
think both coaches are smart in that it's a war,
it's not a race. So I think you're gonna start slow,
build big. I think that's gonna happen a lot in

(25:19):
this game as well. And you know, Arch has a
little bit more experience they are on the road. Arch
is you know, I think all the pressure leading up
to this is going to be all the nasayers, all
the down talkers. Arcs is going to go out there
and just stun everybody. I think he's gonna be great.
I am one hundred million percent completely biased in this game, though.

(25:39):
Give me the longhorns, I'll lay the points or I'll
take the points, and then if it gets close, I
would lay a point or two as well.

Speaker 4 (25:49):
So more than that, I really don't like it.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
And if you want to stay away from this game
because it's so close and all of that, I.

Speaker 4 (25:57):
Understand that as well. I lean towards the long horns.

Speaker 2 (26:00):
I'll likely probably be staying away from. I know there's
gonna be some like exact boosts probably available for this game.
Fandle usually puts out like their game of the week
or something for Saturday. So I could see myself maybe
getting invested. If it's still a round two and a half,
I can get that, you know, closer to a four
or five number, because I'm with you. I do think
like at the end of the day, Texas is going

(26:21):
to start this season one to oh. I think this
is the beginning of a really great stretch. But hey,
it's a very tough, tough play to go, place to
go play down there in the shoes, so a stay
away from me. But Boggs is leaning towards Texas, it seems,
and maybe like a first half under under Bogs. Is
that something I don't hate that?

Speaker 3 (26:40):
Okay, Yeah, that's a good one that we may bring
up on Wednesday.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
All right, well, we'll stay tuned for that at twelve
forty five Eastern time. That'll maybe a little second TV action.
One of the under under the radar good games of
the week will get underway in Lexington, as the Kentucky
Wildcats are seven and a half point favorites against mac
championship favorite to lead out Rockets. The Rockets come off
an eight and five season, but they did go four

(27:04):
and four in conference play. To finish sixth in the MAC.
Last week, I employed everyone to please come with me.
Let's tail the Rockets to win their conference, as ten
of their eleven defensive starters are coming back this year. Also,
they're returning the receptions leader, their leading rusher, and six
year senior quarterback Tucker Gleeson, who led the MAC in

(27:26):
total touchdowns thirty one and finished second in total yards
as well. North of thirty one hundred Kentucky. They're coming
off a four to eight season, but they have been
known to pull off a big upset or two, or
at least try to with some questionable decisions mixed in there.
Second to last finishing order in the SEC last year.
They're returning to seven starters, and seven offensive starters are

(27:47):
all transfers. Big Zach Casalda, he will be coming in.
He's the starter here from Incarnate Ward. Last time he
played an FBS football game was back in twenty twenty one,
so bog we got Big Zach here in. This is
a game that opened at eleven and a half months ago.
This has been trunk I think because of the quarterback news.

(28:08):
He wasn't projected to be the starter heading into this one,
but likely not a ton of money coming in on
this game as a whole. So do you think it
can maybe swing back open a larger spread er? Do
you think if you want Toledo it's about as good
as you're gonna get.

Speaker 3 (28:23):
I think you should you should wait if you're taking Toledo.
I don't think you should take this immediately if you
want Kentucky, because I do think that this game is
a little bit mispriced. I think, Look, Toledo is a
very good MAC team, and speaking of homers, I believe
you have a ticket.

Speaker 4 (28:42):
On Toledo here.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
I do maybe a little.

Speaker 3 (28:44):
Bit wonder why we're talking about this game and not UCLA,
and you know, interesting, but I'm just giving you a
hard time bro in the in this game. Look, Kentucky
is a bad SEC team, but they're not Missippi State.
And Mississippi State was the first win for the MACK
against the SEC, I believe since twenty fifteen. So look,

(29:08):
we've had some good games, right. Vandy was played hard
by Ball State, Bowling Green barely lost to Texas A
and m Toledo beat but yeah it was Toledo beat
Arkansas in twenty fifteen, and before that, Ohio beat Kentucky
in two thousand and four.

Speaker 4 (29:26):
Those were the macwins, the most recent macwins against the SEC.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
Right.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
So, I Kentucky is not a good SEC squad, but
they played Georgia hard.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
Right.

Speaker 3 (29:38):
They're still a top thirty overall roster in the country,
So Toledo's great. They have a lot of offensive return
production on offense, but they don't on defense.

Speaker 4 (29:49):
That's where they're gonna get beat.

Speaker 3 (29:50):
I know it's Zach Calzada coming over from Incarnate where
not a lot of people are very impressed by him,
but we're still talking about SEC level athletes, an SEC
offensive line, pushing around offensive line. I think they should
dominate time of possession. I think Toledo is a very
very good MAC team. I think they could make this
interesting for a half, which half I think is a

(30:10):
big question. And uh, I'm just I'm gonna take the
Wildcats by a lot here.

Speaker 4 (30:15):
Wow. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (30:16):
See I'm on the opposite end of this, man, Like,
I'm gonna wait as long as possible and then I'm
gonna hammer the rockets. I think that's what I'm gonna do,
because like, this isn't if this was against Arkansas or
like even Vanderbilt, Like I think I would take a pause,
but this is Kentucky, man, and like I'd argue this
roster last season and even now with the question marks
they have, like this could be the worst team in
the SEC. Like if we're handicapping it, liked I would give.

(30:39):
I would absolutely give Mississippi State more more wins than them.
I just like what they'd done the portal and recruiting more.
And Kentucky was one hundred and fourteenth in total offense
last season Toledo eighty six, Kentucky forty fourth and total
defense eight and four to the under Toledo fifty fourth.
And the Rockets always show up in these big games
in the non con Dude, it just always had ups

(31:00):
man Toledo. As you mentioned, they beat Mississippi State by
a mile last year forty one seventeen in Starksville. That
game was on the road, also kept it within two
of Illinois the season prior, one of the bigger dogs
from the Big Ten. And let's go back to twenty
twenty one, bugs, they took the eighth rank Notre Dame
fighting Irish through the brink in South Bend thirty two

(31:21):
to twenty nine. So I don't need them to beat Kentucky.
I just need them to keep it within eight here
and potentially maybe ten or eleven by the time this
gets to the weekend, so that that's what.

Speaker 3 (31:29):
Really seth It depends on what Kentucky team shows up, surely.

Speaker 2 (31:33):
Yeah, do you get I saw.

Speaker 3 (31:35):
Kentucky play the worst game I've ever seen a college
football team play against South Carolina last year.

Speaker 4 (31:40):
It was disgusting. I hated it.

Speaker 3 (31:43):
And the next week they took Georgia overtime, you know,
or maybe it was right before overtime.

Speaker 4 (31:48):
What was it.

Speaker 3 (31:49):
I have the schedule pulled up. It was twelve, it
was the final score was twelve to thirteen. They lost
by a point in that game. And you know we're
holding Georgia that whole, that whole. Yeah, And I just
I don't like a MAC team going into Kentucky. I
think you are right in the fact that would this

(32:09):
be the most surprising game if this was played very close? No.

Speaker 4 (32:13):
Can.

Speaker 3 (32:13):
We've seen Kentucky give up when they have a hard time.
It's been in there. But I just MAC versus SEC
in general, Like if this was Vanderbilt, this was Mississippi State,
maybe I'd give them a little bit more credit. Wow,
I just I think Kentucky's roster is much better than
what they played with last year. And they smacked Ohio
last year forty one to eight. So that was their

(32:36):
last meeting with the mac. They beat Southern miss in
the sum about thirty one zip like, and that was
a bad team last year. That's a worse team than
they have right now. Okay, I like Kentucky in this guy.

Speaker 2 (32:46):
All right, Well, I'm excited to get Terrell's take on
that Wednesday house divided here as it stands. Early on
another nude kickoff brings the Syracuse Orange to Atlanta, where
the twenty fourth ranked volunteers are between a twelve and
a half point to a four fourteen a half point favorite.
The Orange come off a ten and three season under
Fran Brown, finished fourth in the ACC. They will be

(33:06):
returning seven starters overall, but notable offensive losses include Kyle McCord,
who was actually just waid by the Eagles. Thought that
was quite a mistake there. Maybe our Steelers can go
pick him up or something. And then Leaquinn Allen, he
was drafted by the Jaguars. And then Trevor Penya transferred
their leading wide receiver to Penn State hashtag we are

(33:27):
a baby, and they have four transfers on the offensive line,
a true freshman starting in their secondary. So a lot
of question marks for the Orange. But Tennessee, you know,
maybe equally is big question marks here because they're coming
off an awesome twenty twenty four season. They finished ten
and three, They upset Alabama, they advanced to the College
Football Playoff where their fans absolutely showed up in drones

(33:50):
man to Columbus. It was a great scene. They got
smacked down though, but then they did lose the likes
of James Pierce Junior amongst some others on this defense.
And then also Niko Oh has gone to USC. Dylan
Sampson now in the NFL maybe projected to start with
the Cleveland Browns week one, and this team is also
hitting the reset button offensive line at wide receiver as well.

(34:11):
We have app State transfer Joey Agilar expected to start,
so Boggs with a lot of uncertainty here on both teams.
Where do you expect this line to go? And will
you have any action on it yourself?

Speaker 4 (34:22):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (34:22):
I actually do already have actually Oh in this game,
al I'm taking Tennessee, man, I just look, this is
too much to replace for Syracuse. It's just what They're
one hundred and twenty eighth in offensive returning production. Man Like,
they have nothing coming back on offense. So there are
massive losses for Tennessee. You mentioned them, right, Nico leaving

(34:44):
specifically late in the process is brutal. But Joey Aguilar
comes in from app State, tons of starts under his belt.
Now he gets better weapons than he had app State,
a better on line as well. I think that's great.
You lose big pieces on defense, right Omer Norman Lot
James p huge pieces on defense. But this is Tennessee again,
this is a you know, this is a.

Speaker 4 (35:07):
SEC school that recruits.

Speaker 3 (35:09):
Well, they're already preseason ranked right, Like, this squad is
going to be good to go. I know they lost
a bunch of pieces. Syracuse has lost too much. I
think their defense wasn't that good anyway. It was good
last year for a little bit. That's fine. A couple
of games they showed up. But I just think that
with this offense, with being in the Mercedes Ben's Dome,

(35:32):
I think Tennessee is going to sell out that stadium.
I think it's going to be a crazy environment. I
think it's gonna be way too much for a patchwork
offense putting things back together. Steve Agelly is great, right, like,
he was really good in that game, but I don't
think that he's going to put together the same magic
the Kyle McCord had.

Speaker 4 (35:50):
So miss me with Syracuse this year. Give me the balls.

Speaker 2 (35:54):
Big Okay, Well, I'm excited to see if the Orange
can potentially pull a rabbit out of their hat, but
I won't have action on it that they will do so.
And before we keep it moving to the rest of
the slate here, want to track all your wagers in
one place. Make sure you're checking out the Betting Pros
Pick Tracker. It sings up with your sportsbooks to tally
which picks are hitting and which ones are missing. Plus,

(36:15):
it gives you a live look at what the public
is doing, so you can know using real time tracking
to determine whether you should be making these plays maybe
whether you should be fading them. Track all your picks
today on the Betting Pros Picktracker at bettingpros dot com,
slash tracking, or on the Betting Pros app. The headliner
of the three point thirty Slate is the number eight
Alabama Crimson tied on the road as twelve and a

(36:36):
half point favorites against Mike Norvel's Florida State Seminoles. Kaylin
de Bor led Bama to a nine to four season
six in the SEC last year, narrowly missing the CFP
quarterback Jaln Milroe. He's now a Seattle Seahawk, but the
team does return fourteen stars, including the country's top tackle
Caden Proctor, trending running back jam Miller, and eight defensive starters.

(36:58):
Ryan Grubb will reach joined Debor calling plays and hopes
to have similar success with red shirt junior Ty Simpson
as he did with Michael Pennix junior. The Knowles, on
the other hand, they're hoping to put a two to
ten season in the rear view after finishing dead lass
in the ACC even behind Stanford. I know, crazy to believe,
and they returned just six starters and Boston College transfer

(37:20):
Thomas Castellanos going by Tommy nowadays taking over at quarterbacks.
So Boggs, if we want Bama, is it safe to
say we need to jump on this sooner than later?
Or do you think old Tommy Tommy c Can maybe
pulling some money here late in the week.

Speaker 4 (37:34):
No, I think you want to get on Bama as
soon as possible because when the casuals start betting and
all that stuff, they're going to take a look and
they're going to go two and ten Florias head against Bama.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
I don't care that it's a home game in the rain.
I'm taking Bama by a million. So if you if
you want fsu, wait on them. I don't particularly love
this game, really, I think that. Yeah, I mean again,
gimme the lean, give me the strongest Bama because it's
all a question about how good is Ty Simpson going

(38:04):
to be?

Speaker 4 (38:05):
Right?

Speaker 3 (38:05):
That is the biggest question here. You know, new starter,
but you have this incredible group of weapons, a wide receiver.
I know they lost their starting running back, but the
lowest recruit in Bama at running back is like a
nine to three. I mean still a high end four star, right,
So they'll figure out the running back position. I'm not
really concerned about that. Oh line is still really good.

(38:25):
The defense ranks third in the country in terms of
roster strength. It's littered with NFL draft picks and on
the Florida State side, it's how fast can Castiano's Castellanos
make this seven transfer starter group gel maybe quickly, but
against Bama Week one, I ain't gonna bet on that. Yeah,

(38:46):
So I give give me Bama in this game. I
guess my one question on the defensive side because FSU's
defense still you know, they're not great, but their unit
is still a thirty thirty third ranked in the nation.
Their starters are you know, a little bit lower than
that at fifty second. Can they put pressure? That's really

(39:09):
the question. Can James Williams, Daryl Jackson, Jason Jenkins, Omar
Graham like the two starters in two returning starters and
two transfer starters. Can this group beat this offensive line
at all? Can they scheme up? Do they blitz a lot?
Can they get to ty Simpson and put pressure on
him and force him into mistakes? I doubt that. I

(39:30):
think this old line for Bama is strong. Obviously, Proctor
huge here, going to be an enormous NFL draft pick.
You know, they lost Booker, they lost Oots who's a
good blocker as well. So there are pieces to replace here,
but it's Alabama. They're replacing them without issue. So I
like Alabama in this game, I'll lean towards them. Could

(39:51):
get weird in the rain, could get weird with the
lack of experience from Ty Simpson.

Speaker 4 (39:55):
But I'm gonna be on the tide here.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
This will likely be my bet of the week that
I do have action down on. I'm rolling with the
tide to anything under two touchdowns. I agree. It's gonna
be about can FSU generate some pressure. I don't think
they can from the left side with Procters, so they're
gonna have to try from that right side. And FSU
last year box two eight and two ats last season
fourth worst clip in the FBS, and they're starting with

(40:20):
an SCS opponent SEC opponent here that has a ton
of experience. So I just think it's gonna be super
tough sledding here. Against non SEC FBS opponents in the
regular season last year, Alabama won by an average of
forty point three points. The only non ACC opponents to
Seminoles face last year, Memphis lost twenty to twelve, Notre

(40:41):
Dame lost fifty two to three, and Florida thirty one
to eleven, a loss as well. So yeah, you go
ahead and give me the tie to roll here. Anything
under two touchdowns. All right, and let's go ahead and
move forward to the battle for death value that will
grace our television screens in primetime Saturday night. The ninth
ranked LSU Tigers are anywhere from three and a half

(41:03):
to a four and a half point dog against the
number four Clemson Tigers. Brian Keller returns after a nine
to four season, seventh in the SEC. He's returning seven starters.
They will be without the likes of Will Campbell on
the offensive line, Mason Taylor, the other tackle, Emery Jones
also headed to the NFL and edge Savian Jones as well,

(41:25):
but back its fifth year quarterback Garrett Nussmeyer, who had
thirty two total touchdowns last season. He's joined by lead
rusher Kay Durham and leading receiver Aaron Anderson. For Clemson,
on the other hand, they still managed to win the
ACC after a very very clunky start to their ten
and four season, advancing to the College Football Playoff where
they give your Texas Longhorns everything they could handle in

(41:47):
those quarterfinals, and they're returning sixteen starters, one of the
most returning production of any team in the country. Cad
Klubnick is at quarterback. Still, he was third in the
country in passing touchdowns last season with thirty six and
maybe to the best defensive linemen in the country, Peter
Woods TJ. Parker Boggs. This spread has already gone from
two and a half at open to anywhere from three

(42:10):
and a half to four and a half in most spots.
So do we continue to see this wide and out
or maybe does a shrink as we progress this here?

Speaker 3 (42:17):
I don't think it's gonna get much bigger than this.
Maybe I'm being ignorant or wrong here, but I wouldn't.
I don't think this game should shade more than three
points one way or the other, right, Like, give Clemson
three points because they're playing at home. I guess maybe.
But outside of that, this is such an even matchup.
It's crazy the Tiger Bowl, Right, So what wins between

(42:41):
roster strength and continuity? I guess that is the big
question to me Because LSU has the number one roster
in the country according to the metrics that I look at,
the best roster in the country, but the most returning
production first on offense, fifth on defense. For Clemson, they're
playing at home. I'm taking the Tigers here. I want

(43:02):
this game to get back below three. I would love
it at two and a half. You know, put it
in a money line and parlay with something else. You
like something like that if you want action in this game.
But this is exactly like Texas and Ohio State. This
is an enormous, massive game. The two Heisman front runners
behind Arch are every I feel like every expert is

(43:26):
taking kiy Klubnik to win the Heisman because ACC schedule's
nicer outside of this LSU game, Right, So I get it,
like there are superstars here. Dabbo returns so much. We
know what Dabbo is when he returns so much production,
He's dangerous. This team is absolutely a national title contender.
So is LSU. But this game is at home for Clemson.

(43:48):
They return more pieces. One bounce can go one way.

Speaker 1 (43:52):
Or the other.

Speaker 3 (43:53):
But I'm going to take Clemson and lay the points.
But I am waiting to see if it climbs back
towards l and if not, I'll just take it on
the money line.

Speaker 4 (44:02):
Yeah, we'll mess with the spread.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
Yeah, I agree with you there. I like the strategy.
I mean, it's a lot of juice you're drinking right
now in the money line. Minus one sixty six. But
I'm sure there'll be another one of these opportunities to
get invested with some type of promotion, a boost, a
free bet, something along those lines. So I don't hate
that at all. And this is another one too where
I would go with the favorite. If I have to pick,
I think I'll just sit back and enjoy. And that's,

(44:24):
you know, one of the great things about Week one.
We're gonna learn a ton about these teams. But I
love Antonio Williams. I love this receiving core for Clemson,
and I just don't think LSU's defense, with so much turnover,
is going to be up to part and with that
offensive line losing both their tackles, Man, like, you're gonna
start stop Parker and Woods, I don't think so. I
don't think they will. Garrett Neusmeyer likes to put the

(44:45):
ball in some risky places sometimes me that comes back
to bite him. This weekend, we do have another acc
SEC clash on Sunday as a Virginia Tech Hokies. They're
traveling to Atlanta, where they are seven and a half
two eight and a half point dogs against the thirteenth
ranks South Carolina. Game Cocks. Pretty disappointing six and seven
twenty twenty four season for Brent Prize Hokies, just given

(45:06):
the expectations. They finished ninth in the ACC. They're returning
just five starters and have holes to phil at wide
receiver with Jalen Lane, Stephen Gosnell leaving in one thousand
yard rusher bay Shall Tooton now Jacksonville Jaguar. However, we
do have dual threat Kien Drones who's returning for his
fifth year, and South Carolina. On the other hand, they
turned into an absolute wagon down the stretch Man finished

(45:28):
four and nine under Shane Beemer, in large part thanks
to the development of Lenora Sellers, who ended up finishing
with twenty five total touchdowns. Sellers is just one of
nine starters back after losing a lot of NFL production. However,
the game Cocks to return edge Dylan Stewart, who had
six and a half sacks. Some are calling him the
best pass rusher outside of Clemson in the nation. So, Bogman,

(45:51):
this line is tightened up from nine and a half
at open to seven and a half. Will it get
below a touchdown by Sunday?

Speaker 4 (45:58):
Oh? I hope So I'm waiting, not a please?

Speaker 2 (46:01):
Is that the line?

Speaker 1 (46:02):
Want?

Speaker 3 (46:02):
That's what I'm going six. If it gets to six
and a half, I am snap taking South Carolina. But
generally I like to take points week one. I think
a lot of the stuff that we lean on in
our information is from last year, and these teams with
the portal, you know, off quarter is gone every year.
I think we think we know too much about those.

(46:23):
So I like to take underdogs. But when we're talking
about these upper echelon teams, I have a hard time
picking against them. Sure, this is another one. I feel
like Virginia Tech is like the Walmart version of you know,
the cartier South Carolina because Drones has Skimer, similar skill set,
similar value to his team that Lora Sellers has for

(46:45):
South Carolina, and he's going to have to do a lot.
That's where I question. My question is can votech keep
pace scoring with South Carolina? Because you know, we talk
a lot about how all it's Leonora Sella's Sellers and
nobody they have Nick Harber. Nick Harber is good. They
brought they bring in Faizon to start a running back.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
Mazie O.

Speaker 3 (47:07):
Bennett was good down the stretch, a little bit like
they have experience coming back on the old line.

Speaker 4 (47:11):
Like, this is a good squad. And even when you.

Speaker 3 (47:14):
Look, I think their worst rateed group is running back
and it's not rted high at all. But the starters
are eighteenth in the country, the two deepest ninth.

Speaker 2 (47:24):
Wow.

Speaker 3 (47:24):
So like, even at that position where it doesn't look strong,
they have a lot of experience. And all you've got
to do is playoff Sellers, right, So who what is
going to happen? Is sellers or drones going to make
more mistakes? I think it's drones. I think Dylan Stewart
might end up being the best defensive player in college
football by the end of this season. They might have
the number one and number two offensive and defensive player

(47:47):
on this roster at South Carolina in Sellers in Stuart,
which is just insane to think about. So for me,
I like South Carolina at home in this game, or
you know, in Atlanta, sure in the South in this game.
So yeah, give me South Carolina. But I'm really, I
really want this to get below touchdowns. Six and a

(48:08):
half is a perfect number.

Speaker 2 (48:09):
Yeah, I'm with you there, man. I think the hype
for Lenora's Sellers very justified. After just the sensational growth
we saw down the stretch from him last year, and
I do do agree. I think Virginia Tech a little
bit of the great Value brand and watch out for
Great Value brand. There's some a little bit, you know, allegedly,
some that going on.

Speaker 3 (48:30):
Yeah yeah, Also there's also some radioactiveness apparently, yeah.

Speaker 2 (48:34):
Yeah, allegedly. So I don't think they'll want to sponsor
the program anytime soon, but I'm agreed with you there.
Six and a half would probably be the number I
would need to see to lay that as well, and
if you thought there couldn't be any more bangers on
the slate will enter number six Notre Dame on the
road as a two point favorite against the number ten
Miami Hurricanes. A season that started an absolute turmoil when

(48:56):
they were upset by Northern Illinois Week two ended in
the National champion Hip Game, where the Irish fell to
Ohio State. Marcus Freeman gets back eleven count them, eleven starters,
including three high level offensive linemen, perhaps the best running
back in the country, Jeremiah Love. Aside from losing Xavier Watts,
this entire secondary is back in action. CJ. Carr gets

(49:18):
the keys to this offense. And meanwhile, the U they
were very much back in twenty twenty four, finishing ten
and three, just outside the ACT Championship game window and
the College Football Playoff. But they're losing quarterback cam Ward,
running back Dean Martinez who went for one thousand yards,
and their top three wide receivers, including Xavier Strepo, has
been just a sensational player and a force there for

(49:41):
a long time. Plus their athletic big man tight end
Elijah Royo, who's also Seattle Seahawk. So they have lost
a ton on offense here. That leaves just eight returning
starters to join Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck on the field. Boggs,
is this another one where if we're going with the
Irish we need to jump on them now?

Speaker 4 (50:00):
Uh? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (50:01):
I mean I would think so because I know that
a lot of people don't like Carson Beck, a lot of.

Speaker 4 (50:07):
People don't like the Delta Kynes.

Speaker 3 (50:10):
And that is understandable. So I would like this number
now this game.

Speaker 4 (50:15):
Listen.

Speaker 3 (50:17):
I have been just awful at trying to pick Notre
Dame right or wrong in my history on this show.
I feel like every time I picked Notre Dame, you
need defade me. I'm just not good at picking the Irish.
I don't really like them here on the road with
a new quarterback to start against Miami, and I know
Miami is down a little bit to people. This is

(50:38):
still a top ten roster, right and if you look
at the starters and the two deep, the measures that
I take a look at, this is a top ten
roster on offense and on defense, on the two d
and on the starters. So this roster strength and they're
at home, there's going to be rain.

Speaker 4 (50:54):
You have CJ.

Speaker 3 (50:55):
Carr in his first start as well. Like the weapons
are there for Notre but that they're from, they're not
not there for Miami.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
You know.

Speaker 3 (51:03):
Obviously we have Daniel's transferring, Carson Beck coming over with
a lot of starting experience. Love him or hate him,
he's got a lot of experience. They bring in stars,
This roster is put together well. So I hate this game.
I don't really like it like I would.

Speaker 4 (51:19):
I would. I would absolutely be on Notre Dame if
this was a Notre Dame home game. Okay, in Miami
feels weirder to me. In the weather feels weirder to me.
First year starter versus a lot of experience in Carson Beck.
This defense is not a joke at Miami. I know
you know they I think they're better this year than
they were last year, and you know cam Ward is missing.

Speaker 3 (51:40):
That's an enormous piece. I'm not sitting here trying to
tell people Carson Beck is cam Ward or even close.

Speaker 4 (51:45):
I think cam Ward's way better. I don't think Carson
Beck is as bad as people are making him out
to be. He's just not an NFL level player. That's
It doesn't mean he can't be a really good ACCQB.

Speaker 3 (51:55):
So tough game, tough matchup. I don't like any part
of it. I'll stay away. My leen is Notre Dame,
but my lean would be towards the under as well,
and I think I like the under when I like
anything here, and I don't really like anything here.

Speaker 2 (52:08):
Mark my words, ladies and gentlemen. This will be my
biggest bet of the week. One Slate's the Notre Dame
money line twelve three and one. Last season ats in
eighty percent cover rate, and I think this is a
much better team than Miami. They're a better team last year, right,
They obviously were. They made that run of the College
Football Championship Game. And I really like that they have

(52:31):
more returning players in Miami in the positions that matter.
And let's look at that quarterback matchup as well, because
I think that's the difference here that while Carson Beck
has experience, he's with a new team. He seems like
someone who likes to cower down a little bit in
some of these big spots. Meanwhile, CJ. Carr, He's at
least been in this system. Man, it feels like Marcus Freeman,

(52:52):
this whole program has complete confidence in him. They didn't
go out, they didn't address the quarterback position like a
lot of people thought. They would also give the coaching
vantage to Marcus Freeman over Mario Cristobal so too. So
I'm just like, the checks just add up for Notre Dame.
Then they do Miami for me here, So I think
this should be a bigger line than it is. Yeah,

(53:12):
and I don't.

Speaker 3 (53:13):
I don't hate that call or the prediction at all, said,
I just for me, I will I'm always wrong on
Notre Dame.

Speaker 2 (53:20):
I get it. I get my instinct.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
I was going into this game, I open up everything
and go I'm taking Notre Dame.

Speaker 2 (53:25):
I get it.

Speaker 4 (53:26):
Right, and I look at it and like, man, Miami's
roster is still pretty big. They're at home, there's weird weather, like,
it's just too many week one nonsense things for me
to feel super confident about Notre Dame. That's all.

Speaker 3 (53:41):
No, I get it, and I love your confidence though, Yeah,
I tell you on it.

Speaker 2 (53:44):
Hey gotta say it with your chest. And look, I
don't even know if Miami can sell this game. There
might be some Notre Dame fans coming in drones down
here to South Beach and get away one last time
before the semester really starts. So looking forward to that one.
We'll round up the program with the old way we could,
of course, Bill Belichick's college football coach and debut the

(54:04):
TCU Horn Froggs. They're traveling to Chapel Hill on Monday
at eight pm Eastern Time, where Sonny Dyke squad is
a three to three and a half point favorite against
the North Carolina tar Heels. TCU bounced back after a
down twenty twenty three with a nine to four season,
finishing fifth in the Big Twelve last year. TCU will
be returning nine starters as well, including quarterback Josh Hooper

(54:26):
who totaled thirty one touchdowns last year, but he did
lose some key offensive playmakers around him, the likes of
wide receiver Saving Williams and Jack Besh, who both earned
the NFL now and to nobody's surprised, Bill Belichick and
his general manager Michael Lombardi, they've absolutely turned this roster
around for North Carolina. They finished six and seven last

(54:47):
year and they have just six returning starters. South Alabama
transfer quarterback Go Lopez expected to get the NOD in
Week one. Boggs returning production would tell you, hey, let's
go ahead and back Texas Christian in this one. But
will the public and you yourself dare to fade Bill
Belichick in his first ever college football game as the
head coach on the sixth for North Carolina.

Speaker 4 (55:08):
Yeah, I will. I'll fame Bill Belichick coming into too
college football. But I'm not like this is a This
isn't a with my chest out game at all. This
is going to be a lean. This will not be
an official pick because I don't really like it.

Speaker 2 (55:22):
I do.

Speaker 3 (55:23):
I do lean towards TCU here you mentioned it, and
I just think in football, in any sport, particularly football,
I think coaching counts for more than it does in
any other sport. But the talent is on the field,
it's not on the sideline. And TCU's roster strength is
twenty seventh numbers that I have, and UNC is fiftieth, right,

(55:45):
So I think TCU is a better squad. I think
we have a guy in Hoover with experience here. This
seems going to pass a lot fifteenth in passing play
percentage last year. There should be a little bit more
even under Belichick. But you know, they lose big pieces here.
TCU does, which is a problem obviously, Betch Williams, Chap

(56:07):
Richardson gone as well. They're number one running back in
cam Cook transferred out as well, so they have to
replace a lot on offense as well. But I think
keeping Hoover is just enormous for continuity for this squad,
and there's just so many moving pieces for North Carolina.
You know this game is at home for UNC, So

(56:28):
could I see them winning this game?

Speaker 4 (56:30):
Yes?

Speaker 3 (56:30):
Yeah, could I see this being a blowout for North
Carolina and Bill Belichick making a mark, It's within the
realm of possibility. Yeah, But what I see is a
close game, maybe a couple of mistakes are made by
Gio Lopez and Josh Hoover doesn't make those mistakes and
he takes advantage. So I don't like this game. I'll
lean towards the horn Frogs, but I I will not

(56:53):
bet this game. Maybe some props, but no sides, no total,
no thank you.

Speaker 2 (56:58):
Yeah, it's super interesting because to me, like your mind
just says, hey, we should be backing TCU here in
this spot because it's a veteran quarterback going up in
a spot against a totally reconstructed defense. Right, new coaching staff,
new scheme, new everything. But at the same time, it's
in North Carolina, it's on Monday night. Motivation certainly at play,

(57:20):
and we know Bill Belichick's guys, at least in the NFL,
wh who's coaching the Patriots, they will get up for
Bill in these moments that matters, So very very excited
for that one going to be an awesome sleigh overall
that is going to do it for us. On this
Early Picks episode of the Betting Pros College Football Show
still to come later this week and every week during
the CFB regular season, our Picks and Prediction show with

(57:42):
Drell also Bogs will have his best bets and our
parlay picks coming your way. Let us know in the
comments down below your favorite Week one picks, and while
you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing.
If you're new to the channel for Scott Bogman, I've
set to Wilcock take care of y'all. Thanks for listening
to the Betting Pros.

Speaker 1 (58:00):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
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College Football Week 1 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 749)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Week 1 Early Picks | Line Movement Predictions (Ep. 749)