June 10, 2025 • 32 mins
Join Tyler Coniun and Kelly Kirby as they preview Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers from a betting perspective!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
What Happened in Game 3? - 0:01:30
Betting Recap - 0:06:22
FanDuel - 0:07:24
Game 4 Lines - 0:07:51
Favorite Playoff Storylines - 0:14:38
Comparing Connor McDavid To All-Time Greats - 0:16:20
Conn Smythe Odds - 0:18:05
Game 4 Overview - 0:20:34
Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:27:38
Game 4 Best Bets - 0:28:26
Outro - 0:31:38
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome into the Stanley Cup Playoffs
live stream here on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel. We
are now through three games of the Stanley Cup Finals,
so we're getting close to the end here. I'm Tyler Kanyem.
I am joined as always by Betting Pros, NHL expert
and ed Minton Oilers fan Kelly Kirby. Thinking maybe not
so calm and collected today.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Okay, so I'm gonna start here so that we just
have it out of the way, so there's no like
I didn't say it. Florida beat the crap out of us.
They were great, Like that's it. So yeah, I'm not
everything I say from here on out is a complaint
or part of my therapy or whatever has to happen.
But yeah, in terms of calm and collected, I mean
(00:42):
it's like two to one, so whatever. Like, I'm not
dying yet, but we have things to talk about.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
There is still time for sure. As a reminder, we
are live each and every Tuesday and Friday through the
end of the Stanley Cup Finals. As I mentioned, there's
I think a maximum of three of these left, maybe two.
We'll see how it goes. I'm not sure, but do
make sure you are subscribed and following us here on
Twitch if you're watching this on YouTube, and make sure
you are following and subscribing at twitch dot tv slash
(01:11):
Fantasy Pro so you can catch us live Tuesdays and
Fridays until this series as done. Thank you for joining
us today. Feel free to drop a comment or a
question if you want to talk about Game three, if
you want to talk about Game four, or anything in between.
Like I said, the stage is yours. Give us your
perspective as an Oilers fan of what the heck happened
in Game three last night, Oilers losing six to one
(01:33):
to the Florida Panthers.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I mean, I just want to say that the last
goal was just such an insult to injury, like you
could have just kept it at six, like we could
have at least cleared the under. But no, obviously that
wasn't gonna happen. But yeah, I mean, you know, I've
never seen I've never seen a team give another team
eleven power plays like I've I want.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
To go back.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
I want to go back to our Stanley Club preview
when I basically was just like we can, and by we,
I mean Oilers. We can win, we just cannot, under
any circumstances play their game. And last night it was
their game and I sat there and I'm like, I
feel like I'm watching pee wee hockey with a bunch
of like boys who can't regulate their emotions. Like it's
(02:16):
just like, what what is happening right now?
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And especially game like game two, we saw eleven penalties
in the second period, and you think, okay, game three,
maybe some cooler heads will prevail. And I know Evander Kaine,
that's his style of game. I think he ended up
with sixteen or eighteen penalty minutes. There was, you know,
some some stuff at the end there or a few
players got misconducts, but he took those back to back
penalties seemingly in that game there, and they just never
(02:41):
seemed to get the chance. You know, Brad Marshawn scores
the first goal of the game. He's been unbelievable. Do
you think that this is something the Oilers? Is this
a problem or is this something they can rectify? Like
there's no way there's one hundred and thirty eight penalty
minutes in game three, eighty something in game two.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
This can't Yeah, so I like to believe, Like my
belief here is that at some point, probably in the
middle of the second period or for sure the second intermission,
that I think they were all like, fine, let's just
get it all out tonight, Like let's just let's just go.
You want to fight fight tonight, you want to like
do dumb stuff, do it tonight. Because if they didn't
say that, then I have no idea what happened, because
(03:22):
I mean it was just like I said on Twitter,
as soon as as soon as they scored the fourth goal,
I was like, now you pull skinner and let them
rest like it just like there's we're not winning this,
so there was no reason to keep doing what we
were doing. But yeah, I mean it's you know, obviously
I've seen both teams complain about the referees going against them,
but I think that if that, you know, it's they
if they keep calling it like this, it's just it
(03:44):
should actually benefit the Oilers because the Panthers are so
much like there's so much more physical and yet they're
so good at acting. I mean, did you see Bobrovski, Like,
I'm like, if it was that easy to knock you over, man,
you would never become an NHL So like, I mean,
he's just Flailly. I'm like, oh, here we are.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
But yeah, they know exactly what to do.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
You mentioned Florida had eleven power plays and Edmonton, you know,
game one, they seem to come in with such confidence.
We've talked about it ad nauseum about it just seems
like the Team of Destiny seems like a different team.
They win the Western Conference Finals, they have no shame
about touching the trophy, like they're going to go out
and win this and then do you feel like maybe
there's some immaturity. I don't even say it's an experience
because they were there last year. But like you said,
(04:28):
playing they know what they don't they can't do in
order to beat Florida. They need to play the offensive game,
they need to play the skill game. Do you think
Florida is just that annoying that to get under their skin? Like,
is it something that Florida is just that good at
or is it something where Edmonton is still just showing
a little bit of an experience there.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, I mean I think it's just more it's yeah,
I mean, I don't know if there's a Florida Panther
that I would want to hang out with, like that
would you get annoying pretty clearly, But like in general,
they shouldn't be engaging in the way that they are.
And and even in the first two games, I don't think
they did like like in the second game, Florida just
(05:06):
won like that it was a good game, did what
you know, Like, I have no real complaints about how
that one went, aside from Bennett, you know, taking out
a goalie. But the last night just there was just
no excuse everything everything they went wrong immediately. I'm a
little nervous about McDavid injury wise, you know, I didn't know,
we don't know what. I don't know what Nugent Hopkins'
(05:27):
situation was. They banked around with the defenseman lineup like
I it is. I'm like, I don't know if right
now is the time to mess anything up, but they
seem to be trying so.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
And I think too, Like Paul Maurice in his press
conferences afterwards, he's joking around. He's they're saying, you know, well,
Sam Bannon hasn't done a lot, yeah, or Barkoff hasn't
done a lot in this series. Oh yeah, We're going
to trade him and he just I don't I don't
even want to call it arrogance. It's certainly annoying if
you're not a Florida Panthers fan that they just they
just seem to be so so confident, comfortable, they're not worried,
(06:03):
and I think that's starting to rub people the wrong way.
But it's also kind of like it's a little bit
scary as someone who's bet against the Florida Panthers in
this series and bet on the Oilers to see players
like that, coaches like that is going okay. They don't
seem to be rattled, like after Game one, maybe there
was a little bit of rattle, but they just really
don't seem to be which is a little bit scary.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
I guess.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
On the plus side, we did do well in our
bets recapping previously, just just to quickly recap what I
still have alive. Aout the Oilers to win the Cup,
had them to win Game one in the Cup, that's
still alive, Sam Bennett the most goals in the series.
That's still looking like it's very very alive as well.
And then in game this would be for Game two,
but the Vibrowski over on the saves. That seems like
(06:43):
it can just be something bet over and over again.
The over six that hit in game two, in game three,
I went under for Game three, and as you mentioned,
there was that Lake goal that brought that to under
six and a half. And then on your side. For
your sake, I hope that this doesn't end in five
games because that would mean that the oilers I don't
win again. But McDavid most points is still alive. You've
(07:03):
bet him to get two plus points, which he's done
almost you know, every single game, the overs and then
a great call last time for the Corey Perry point
and perhaps an anytime goal at plus two seventy. So
on the plus side, we're at least betting this series
fairly correctly, which I think is a good sign. Before
we start talking about game four and more bets, I
(07:24):
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new FanDuel customers can bet five dollars and win two
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Speaker 3 (07:40):
To get started.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
That's bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel. Make your plays on
FanDuel today, start looking ahead to game four and try
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Speaker 3 (07:50):
So we've got a couple of.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Days here because the next game, Game four, isn't until Thursday.
But the opening line here, it's certainly juicy in favor
of the Florida Panthers or minus one forty five. The
Edmonton Oilers are plus one thirty five over under is
basically staying where it's always been. You can find a six,
you can find a six and a half. So, first
of all, talk about with the Oilers being down, if
you want to talk about the zig zag theory, you
(08:13):
would think maybe they'd be a little bit more in
favor of Edmonton. But tell me about what you think
of Florida at minus one forty five.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
So objectively, I'll switch to objective. But I also wanted
to mention that the two bets I put on out
on Twitter last night was Anton Lindell to get a
point and Bennett to score a goal. So like you
and I are putting bets out there every day even
if we're not doing this, so it's going to take
a look. But objectively, I think that's too high for Florida.
It's certainly too juicy to bet in my opinion, given that, Yeah,
(08:44):
game three was awful, they look dominant, like but also
okay again, like you're telling me that they're that much better.
That is difficult to eat. Now if it drops to
like one twenty, I might minus one twenty. I might
take it because they're at home, because Edmonton loves to
dig holes for themselves. But yeah, and I say I'm
(09:06):
going I think I'm going under on the six and
a half, just like we talked about, like there's one
under game and it wasn't yesterday, and so I you know,
and there are stats on Twitter that talk about which
I don't really necessarily believe in. But Stuart Skinner in
game four's is lights out now, okay, like what does
(09:27):
that mean? I don't know it, Just like I feel
like it's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Considering the oilers are almost always playing from trailing in
a series. I think that's a good Like he can
play under adversity. I think he can play when when
the chips are down a little bit, and I do
agree with you. I think Panthers at minus one forty
five one fifty is just not happening for me. One
of my favorite bets is Oiler's money line because it's
one thirty one thirty five. To me, Oilers have been
a good road team the whole series.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
I think.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
I don't want to say you can take the home
ice out homee advantage out of it for either side.
Florida's loud, Edmonton's certainly loud as well, But when you're
at this stage with the way Edmonton's been playing, I
think that when you're getting up to one forty one
to fifty, they've shown they can win on the road.
They've been you know, Game one, they win, Game two
is close, they lose in overtime. Yeah, there's the blip
here in Game three, but I don't think this series
(10:15):
is nearly as lopsided. It was a crappy game for
Edminton in Game three, Like that's when you can crumple up,
throw in the garbage, not look at the tape. I
don't think there's Do you think there's a lot that
they can take out of that game? Aside from the
penalties or is that just one of those like, look,
we just didn't have it tonight, Skinner didn't necessarily have
it tonight. They still had chances like can you just
throw that tape in the garbage or do you think
(10:35):
it might be a bigger issue.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
I'm going with the tape in the garbage. I mean
you have to have short term memory loss in the final,
Like there's just no other way to play it. You know,
you and I were joking about novelty bets, like what
would the chances have been that Jake Wallman was going
to spray the other bench with water? When that When
that started happening, I just thought, oh, we are so
off the rail. As I texted my friends, I was like,
(10:58):
I was like, and this game is drunk, Like I
don't even know what else to do with it. So, yeah,
to me, it was such an anomaly and it's such
an outlier that to bet based on how it went,
I'm not interested in that it was Florida's first home game.
I mean there was a lot going for Florida that
in this whole thing, So I'm hoping beyond hope that yeah,
(11:21):
it was a blip, and I.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Think too a lot of times when you have these instances,
whether it's hockey or other sports too, you have this
game where it kind of you know, it ends in
a little bit of fighting, or there starts the animosity
and obviously there's a rivalry from last year, and then
all of a sudden, you know, the media or people
like us are putting all these expectations on the next game, like, Oh,
what's gonna happen? Rarely does that actually, you know, come
to fruition. I don't think we're gonna get the you know,
(11:45):
Pedro Martinez throwing an old man to the ground thing. Like,
I feel like this is going to be not a
one and done. Like I think it's gonna be a
little bit chippy because it's the finals. But I don't
think you're gonna get one hundred and thirty five penalty minutes.
I don't think you're gonna get eleven power plays. I
don't think you're going to get a ton of fights.
There's too much at stake now too. And we talked
last time about the winner of game winner of a
(12:07):
Tide series, or maybe we didn't talk about it. I
talked about it on the YouTube short the winner of
Game two in a Tide series wins a series seventy
one percent of the time. I don't have the stats
for this one, but I think you can pretty much
say if you go up three one in a series,
it's probably in the nineties. So Edmonton has to win
this game. I think they can't play around with this
this foolery, or they can't lean into what the Panthers
(12:29):
want to do, or they might be in big trouble.
Then you mentioned the total as well, you're leaning more
towards the under of the six and a half. I
do like the over, but on the six, I think
it's just I agreed last time I thought that was
going to be the under of the series because it
was tied. I'm now at the point where it's like,
I'm just going to bet over six until it stops happening,
which very well could be in this game as well.
(12:51):
But it's like, just watching these two teams I play,
I almost feel like it's hard for them not to
at least get to six.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
But you do lean towards the under.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Yes, yeah, I do, just a little bit. And I
it's dangerous. I mean it's really dangerous, like tomorrow or
on Thursday. I might just decide randomly that I'm gonna
go with the over six and a half because I've
I've been doing that depending on how the line moves,
but I think under the six and a half. But
I you know, you and I've talked about I love
You're over six, Like that's over six just feels like
(13:18):
the right choice pretty much every time these two teams play.
But the other thing I was gonna say is like
looking at like I so I was looking at last
year when the Oilers went down three to zero, and
I remember after Game two they lost four to one,
and I mean it looked like I had the same
feeling that I had yesterday where I'm like, I don't
even know who this team is. It's this is just
this is just gross. And and then game three they lost
(13:41):
four to three and it was super close. So like,
I feel like game they're just reversed this year. Game
two was this was that one. But then they came
the Oilers came out and won eight to one in
game four, and so it's like that fire again, that
firepower is there, and if they get on a roll,
they get on a roll, like yeah, you know, then
it's we're off to the races again. But if they
(14:02):
try to, if they try to fight and be more
annoying than the Panthers, they will lose every single time.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
Yeah, they have to play their game, and they can
show when they do play that game, they can put
up six, seven, eight goals. I think it's Bibarovski, especially
sitting back there, if you let him get comfortable, if
you're not taking a ton of shots, if you're playing
this game that lends into Florida what they want you
to do. He can just kind of sit, but you've
got to keep him moving side to side, and he
did make some great saves last night, but I think
(14:27):
that that's going to be a way that you can
get to him. We do have a question here. I
think Edmonton still has the series, gonna win game four.
I think it goes to seven games. Not a non
betting question. What has been your favorite storyline of the
playoffs so far? So I would assume probably for you,
it's the Oilers getting to the finals. But if I'm wrong,
what has been your favorite storyline so far?
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Well, first of all, it's very nice to see you,
and your question is great, and you're my new favorite
watcher anyway.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
But Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
For me, it's really kind of been the McDavid ken
McDavid win the Cup because I like, I get it
really annoyed when people are like, oh, he never won,
he never won, and so like, yeah, I mean I
disagree that he has to to be considered like great,
but it would be really nice to get that off
the back. And then really, and honestly, and I really
(15:16):
hate to say this, but like what watching Sam Bennett
do what he's done, what he's doing is it's just
like how do you you know, how do you stop him?
What is going on? Like, so I think it would
be that between those two McDavid getting the Cup and
then Bennett just being dumbly good.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
And I hate to agree with everything that you're saying,
but we're having this conversation when we were watching the
game last night. Of as much as I dislike Florida
because they always eliminate the Leafs and just the way
they play, but then you look at the team and
you go, well, this is like half of Team Canada here,
so it's hard for me to root against them. So
I'm just rooting for Bennett and Ryan Hart and Marshawn
you know a couple of months ago, going to be
(15:57):
rooting for the get for them again in the Olympics
up coming, So it would be nice to see some
of those players win the Stanley Cup. But obviously, at
the end of the day, my favorite storyline is Evant
just getting back there because it's not the easiest thing
to do. Seeing Connor McDavid's maturity, him sort of changing
his personality a little bit, wanting to go after it
(16:17):
and win the Cup. And you did mention another question
I had for you this off topic that reminded me
we were again having this conversation last night comparing guys
like McDavid to in the people in the past, like
Crosby and Gretzky. I'm not going to compare McDavid to
Gretzky yet, certainly, but when you look at someone like
Crosby who has three cups, like all things equal, McDavid's,
(16:39):
you know, certainly a better goal scorer. You could even
argue a better playmaker as well. But do you think
all things equal, he needs those one, two, three cups
to be considered the greatest or it doesn't matter quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
I think he well, he for sure needs one, right
and it would be I think he somehow would get
a boost because you know, narratives are weird sometimes, But
I think he gets a boost if they win it,
and they're the first Canadian team to win it since,
you know, nineteen ninety three. So in that regard, I
feel like that he for sure needs one. If in two,
(17:10):
three would be great. And it's hard to Yeah, it's
hard to quantify exactly how many he would need to
fit into that conversation, but the comparison with Crosby is good.
But and some of what he can do is comparative
to Gretzky. It's just Gretzky's numbers look like they were
made in a lab somewhere.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, I often do that. I'll go on to Hockey
Reference and then in baseball going to Baseball Reference and
just look at Barry Bonds and Wing Gretzky's numbers and
go like, yeah, I mean, I remember the tail ends
of their career, but just looking at them, going how
did this even ever happen? It's unbelievable. But I'm of
the mind, I'm sort of always of the mind if
all things are equal, the championship sort of, I don't
(17:52):
think you have to have one to be considered the greatest.
Certainly doesn't hurt. And it's like, you know, all things equal,
if they finished with the exact same number of points.
Because we had three cups and McDavid had zero, I
think that does tilt it that way too. Speaking of
awards and stuff like that, I did want to mention
the con smythe because it's shifted quite a bit really
(18:12):
So before this series started, McDavid was your favorite twin
the con Smite at plus one twenty, Bobroski plus two
to fifty, bark Off at plus five fifty. That has
changed drastically, where now Sam Bennett is the favorite to
win the con Smite at plus one seventy five. McDavid's
down to two fifty, and then you've got Marshan plus
four hundred, Bobrovski plus four fifty, and then at the
(18:33):
bottom at the end of this list Dry Sidle plus
twelve hundred. So do you think there's any I know,
we both got McDavid I think around plus one sixty.
Kind of kicking myself for that now, or maybe do
you want to double down on McDavid at plus two
to fifty do you think do you think anybody else
from Edmonton should they win this series is going to
get it now that we're three games in, and then
objectively looking at Florida, do you think it's Bennett, Do
(18:56):
you think it's Marshan, or do you think it's Bobrovski.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Yeah, I was going to say, like, given the odds
where they are at this point, I would if you
haven't bet it yet, I would go Bennett McDavid, like
you're guaranteed a profit, and and I think depending on
which team wins, it's going to be one of those two,
just because again of what Bennett has done offensively, the
fact that he's now the leader, and I also think,
(19:22):
you know, unless I'm terrible at predicting which week my favory.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Well could be.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
But I feel like I feel like the others are
going to come back and Peboky is going to give
up a couple more goals and and so it's going
to swing really hard toward a forward. So yeah, at
this point, with those numbers, I would bet both of them,
and I wouldn't have any trouble hedging my McDavid but
with Bennett. But I'm not going to double down on McDavid.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
So yeah, that's exact that I was going to say.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
I don't think Bobrovski, We've got, you know, two, three,
four games left to go in this series. I don't
think Bobrovski is going to be able to like he'd
in my opinion, you need to get two or three shutouts.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Uh well, he wouldn't be able.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
To get three, but he would need two shutouts or
a shot out at least to sort of get into
that conversation. I think this is definitely more of a
forwards series. So Marshawn at plus four hundred, I don't hate.
It's an instance of can he keep it going? I
know he's been great. He's him in Bennett of combined
for eight goals in the series. I don't know if
he can keep it going. But I think if you
(20:18):
did want to take someone from Florida, take Bennett plus
one seventy five. I think if you haven't bet McDavid
yet plus two to fifty, it's.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Not going to get better than that. I don't think.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
I think it would either continue to go in Florida
Panthers favor or his number is going to go down
from there. So we can finally start to talk about
game four, start talking about our bets. Touched on the
money line, touched on the total. As we head into
game four. Now you know old Stuart Skinner returned at
the worst possible time. He's pulled after the fifth goal. There,
(20:47):
Brad Marshawn becomes the oldest player to score in three
straight Stanley Cup Finals games. Do you think he's the
biggest trade deadline acquisition in recent memory for any team?
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Yes? Yeah, I mean Brandon and started off as that, right,
but Marshan for what they give up a second round,
I mean it's absurd, that's way they gave.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Out almost all.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
And he's now considering re signing in Florida as well,
so he might be sticking around. I think it's rare
to see someone that has fit in as well as
he has with the team. I mean that certainly the
play styles are there, and Ranton was great for Dallas,
but you almost kind of had this. It's either Ranton
in or the rest. You didn't sort of have rant
In and the rest, where Marshawn just seems to be
(21:29):
fitting in completely, completely fluidly. Sam Bennett scored his leading
fourteenth goal of the playoffs after big hit causing a turnover.
So he's really playing an all around game. And all
the big names for Florida scored in game three, you
and Verhage, You had Ryan Hart, you had Eckblad, big
storyline in Edmonton, Connor McDavid, you know, before this series started,
there's a little bit of controversy.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
He left practice. Is he hurt and he.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Takes a pretty decent hit last night, and he left
the game briefly. He came back seemed okay, But do
you think there's any smoke to that fire?
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Do you think there's any fire to that smoke?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
When he left, I got a little concerned. I mean
I think I actually said out loud that that's that
that concerned me. But like he came back so quickly
that it was one of those like did he need
something for a skate or like it didn't look necessarily
like he was out for down for the count, let's
go that way. But I don't yeah, I mean, I
don't like how the I don't like how it looked.
(22:21):
I don't like Newton Hopkins looking how he looked like
everything and dry Sidle looked slow. It was just like
the weirdest kind of game last night that no one
looks like they were no one looked like they were
totally in it. But we talked about that. I mean,
if McDavid is even kind of injured, then just count it.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
Yeah. And dry Settle had zero shots in game three?
How much of it?
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Because we did see that a couple times in previous
series where he would just kind of not disappear, but
he wouldn't really be part of the offensive game. Then
you know, he explodes for three points or two goals
or something. How much do you make of zero shots
in game three? Going into game four and McDavid to
that point too, McDavid had two shots, Nugent Hopkins only
had one.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Well, they couldn't get anything. I mean there was no offense.
There's no flow at all. There was absolutely zero flow
for the end and those dry title for sure needs
the flow to make it work because he sets up
so well and he does his shots, you know, the
one timers are I would rather have him doing one
timers than pretty much anyone else, I think. But if
(23:22):
there's if there's not any sort of game flow, if
McDavid's not moving, if it's like it, then he his
game is really really impacted and they just would not
give anything up last night. So I'm not concerned. He
did get shut out at one time in Dallas, so
I think he'll come back strong on the shots on goal.
But I don't like your second note here where he
(23:44):
talks about that Corey Perry led the team with five
like that's just leads the team with five. That's that's
not where we want to be.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
And yeah, I mean he's been good. I mean, as
we mentioned, he's scoring, he's producing. But when your team
looks like your team makeup is the way the Oilers
is Corey Perry Like, if that's a one off, okay,
But if that ends up becoming the trend of he's
getting the most shots on your team every night, you're
in big trouble. And I think that's something that Edmonton's
going to have to figure out. And then when you
(24:14):
look at the goaltending situation, we thought we'd put this
to bed, but is the door open for Calvin Picard
to play or is this just again a bad game?
Put it to bed. Skinner's the guy he's going back
in at for Game four. There's no controversy here.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
I would I will predict if they give up if
he gives up two goals in the first period, he's
out the pull him immediately. I don't they will. I
think his hook is much shorter now just because they
can't follow that far behind, because that was the other
thing that happened, right, Like if you go down two
one and then you go three to one, and then
they could just be physical, like they could just throw
(24:50):
everybody around for the rest of game, like there was
just nothing because then they just had to protect it.
So so yeah, I mean, I think Picard his music
isn't playing yet, but like everyone knows he's in the arena,
So I feel like Skinner is gonna have to come
out strong or it'll be over real fast.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
And do you think if they did make the switch
that that would play into like is that a good
thing for Florida or a good I mean, obviously a
good thing for Evonton if they're having to pull their
starting goalie. But you who do you think this boost
gives to of Florida saying Okay, we got him out
of here, now we've got pickcard in he hasn't played
in a while, or is it more more on the
Edmonton side of okay, Well, he was good last time.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
Let's see we've got this time.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Yeah, I mean I think that was when, you know,
going into game three in the first round, right, we
were like, oh yeah, here we go, like we're pulling
Skinner Placard and Picard was so good that when they
decided to put Skinner back in because Picard got hurt,
we were all just like, oh, here we go, right,
and he just came out and what did three shutouts
or something like? I mean, so I feel like I
(25:52):
just feel like Evonton Goldtening is just like throw, like
flip a coin and tell me what it comes up as,
and that's how it could go. Whereas Florida of course,
just gets to hang out and as long as Bibroxkia
doesn't get bumped then everything's fine.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
But yeah, and Bbrovski's been again. He's just been good
and he's been steady. Made thirty two of thirty three saves.
Did have a couple of big chances, a couple big
stops on McDavid there, And does it concern you at
all as an Edmonton fan, Like when we're having this conversation,
a lot of the storyline center around is McDavid hurt?
What happened with dry Sidle. Why is Corey Perry leading
(26:27):
the team in shots? Why is Stuart Skinner playing the
way he is? And then when we look at the
Florida side, there aren't really a lot of question marks.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Yeah no, and you know, again it's the and I
don't mean to keep saying like again, but it is.
I think when the way that the questions are framed,
like all of the pressure is kind of and always
has been on Edmonton here, like because Florida won it
last year and Florida is just taking like the and
I will use the word arrogant, like they're just going
(26:54):
with arrogance because that is their personality. I mean, that's
the team's personality and it's a decent one to try
to win. It just makes for really bad hockey. But
I think that that, yeah, it's it's going to be
a question and now the pressure has arrived in terms
of well, what's going on, what's wrong? And you know
you want to avoid those questions, then don't play like
you did last.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Night exactly, And we talked about it already. Just special
teams is obviously going to continue to be a big
factor here. You had twenty eight penalty minutes in game two,
you at one hundred and thirty eight in Game three,
fifteen minor penalties. I mean, at the end of the day,
you want to win and lose these games playing five
on five and made the best team win. If you're
going to keep giving matter who you are, if you're
Florida or Edmonton, you cannot continuously give these teams the.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Power play advantage.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
So before we get into our favorite bets, I did
just want to quickly tell you about the NHL prop
bet cheat sheet on the Betting Pros app because it's
the best. If you're betting props on Thursday's action, you
want to be using the NHL prop bet cheat sheet.
It shows you the very best value plays every day.
You can get your daily prop bet value rankings based
on projections, find the best props for shots on all points, saves,
(28:01):
and more. Use it now at bettingpros dot com, slash
NHL props or on the Betting Pros app so those
will be live on Thursday, and then once the NHL
is done, you can transition over to using the MLB
prop bet cheat sheet and also the brand new WNBA
prop bet cheat sheet, which I used quite a bit
today for three bets on the Liberty game, because I
think they're gonna beat this guy up pretty badly. But
(28:24):
as we again we're two days away from Game fourst
we'll do the best job we can to give you
the best bets for what's available out there.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
I will start.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
I've got the Edmonton Oilers on the money line. It's
plus one thirty. I just I think you can actually
get better odds now. I just love that. I don't
think the Florida Panthers at minus one fifty is a
good play. May Florida win maybe, But if you're giving
me plus one thirty on the Oilers, I'm gonna take
it to even up the series. And then I know
it's juicy. You can go to six and a half
(28:52):
if you want. But I just like I always say
the push potential at six, if we get a four
to two final something of that nature, give me the
over six until they that A can't go over six
minus one twenty five and then Brad Marshad is my
early player prop. He's just been so steady, he's been
so consistent. He's playing on all the special teams as
power play goals. He has shorthanded goals. He has even
(29:12):
strength goals and he's helping out on the top line
as well, So I will keep that hot hand there
with Brad Marshawan. To get one plus points for minus
one twenty, I think you can get a minus one
fifteen some places too, but minus one twenty on the board, all.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Right, So I'm gonna I'm going with the regression to
the mean, right, so I think dry title comes out
with two plus points. It's at plus one fourteen. I
like the same as you right where I just feel
like they are going to have to bounce back, and
I think that there will be like a concerted effort
to get him more involved than what he was yesterday.
(29:45):
Evan Bouchard is like leading the Oilers in shots on
goal I think by a wide margin, and he had
nine last night. So the idea that he would get four,
he's been shooting like he's just been shooting like crazy.
So at plus one fifty eight, I, you know, three
was so juiced. I was like, well, let's just go
to four because I think that he can get there.
And then I'm not gonna I'm not going against Bennett
(30:06):
like I mean, plus one eighty for him to you know,
get to do to keep doing what he's doing. I'm like, then, yeah,
there's no point in that that that's a good number
for him.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
So yeah, the props have been so heavily favored on
the Edmonton side that it's like they almost don't realize that,
you know, Florida's scoring three or four goals a game too. Uh,
And so there's a lot of potential on the goals there.
And as you mentioned, with Bouchard just watching the games,
that's the way they want to play. He's just teeing
it out from the point, hoping to get a tip
from dry Siddle or McDavid in front of the net
(30:38):
Corey Perry as well, and he's just letting it fly.
And he's letting it fly, especially if you're getting you know,
five or six power plays. He's the one that's running
point back there. So that about does it for to day.
We will be back again on Friday and we're either
going to have a three one series or hopefully a
two to two series, and we've got a best of
three and we can sort of start all over again.
So be interesting to see how this game goes. I'm
(31:01):
really hoping the Oilers can tie it up, not just
for my bets, but also for the fact that the
conference finals are pretty short. I'm hoping the Stanley Cup
finals aren't that short as well, and would like to
see the Stanley Cup back in Canada. So before we
get out of here, tell the people where they can
find you and where they can see your best.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
All right, on Twitter slash x at the Wonky Penguin.
On Blue Sky I am at the Wonky Penguin, and
then on Betting Pros a also I do a daily
prop article, but you can find me. It's Bettingpros dot
com slash you slash Wonky Penguin. There we go.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
You can follow me on socials at Tyler Conium, on
Betting Pros at Bettingpros dot com slash you slash Tyler
Conium as well. So on that note, we'll get out
of here. If you're watching this on YouTube, make sure
you follow us on Twitch, Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros.
We back Friday three pm Eastern to talk about the
Stanley Cup Finals.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
Have a good one.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome into the Stanley Cup Playoffs
live stream here on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel. We
are now through three games of the Stanley Cup Finals,
so we're getting close to the end here. I'm Tyler Kanyem.
I am joined as always by Betting Pros, NHL expert
and ed Minton Oilers fan Kelly Kirby. Thinking maybe not
so calm and collected today.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Okay, so I'm gonna start here so that we just
have it out of the way, so there's no like
I didn't say it. Florida beat the crap out of us.
They were great, Like that's it. So yeah, I'm not
everything I say from here on out is a complaint
or part of my therapy or whatever has to happen.
But yeah, in terms of calm and collected, I mean
(00:42):
it's like two to one, so whatever. Like, I'm not
dying yet, but we have things to talk about.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
There is still time for sure. As a reminder, we
are live each and every Tuesday and Friday through the
end of the Stanley Cup Finals. As I mentioned, there's
I think a maximum of three of these left, maybe two.
We'll see how it goes. I'm not sure, but do
make sure you are subscribed and following us here on
Twitch if you're watching this on YouTube, and make sure
you are following and subscribing at twitch dot tv slash
(01:11):
Fantasy Pro so you can catch us live Tuesdays and
Fridays until this series as done. Thank you for joining
us today. Feel free to drop a comment or a
question if you want to talk about Game three, if
you want to talk about Game four, or anything in between.
Like I said, the stage is yours. Give us your
perspective as an Oilers fan of what the heck happened
in Game three last night, Oilers losing six to one
(01:33):
to the Florida Panthers.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I mean, I just want to say that the last
goal was just such an insult to injury, like you
could have just kept it at six, like we could
have at least cleared the under. But no, obviously that
wasn't gonna happen. But yeah, I mean, you know, I've
never seen I've never seen a team give another team
eleven power plays like I've I want.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
To go back.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
I want to go back to our Stanley Club preview
when I basically was just like we can, and by we,
I mean Oilers. We can win, we just cannot, under
any circumstances play their game. And last night it was
their game and I sat there and I'm like, I
feel like I'm watching pee wee hockey with a bunch
of like boys who can't regulate their emotions. Like it's
(02:16):
just like, what what is happening right now?
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And especially game like game two, we saw eleven penalties
in the second period, and you think, okay, game three,
maybe some cooler heads will prevail. And I know Evander Kaine,
that's his style of game. I think he ended up
with sixteen or eighteen penalty minutes. There was, you know,
some some stuff at the end there or a few
players got misconducts, but he took those back to back
penalties seemingly in that game there, and they just never
(02:41):
seemed to get the chance. You know, Brad Marshawn scores
the first goal of the game. He's been unbelievable. Do
you think that this is something the Oilers? Is this
a problem or is this something they can rectify? Like
there's no way there's one hundred and thirty eight penalty
minutes in game three, eighty something in game two.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
This can't Yeah, so I like to believe, Like my
belief here is that at some point, probably in the
middle of the second period or for sure the second intermission,
that I think they were all like, fine, let's just
get it all out tonight, Like let's just let's just go.
You want to fight fight tonight, you want to like
do dumb stuff, do it tonight. Because if they didn't
say that, then I have no idea what happened, because
(03:22):
I mean it was just like I said on Twitter,
as soon as as soon as they scored the fourth goal,
I was like, now you pull skinner and let them
rest like it just like there's we're not winning this,
so there was no reason to keep doing what we
were doing. But yeah, I mean it's you know, obviously
I've seen both teams complain about the referees going against them,
but I think that if that, you know, it's they
if they keep calling it like this, it's just it
(03:44):
should actually benefit the Oilers because the Panthers are so
much like there's so much more physical and yet they're
so good at acting. I mean, did you see Bobrovski, Like,
I'm like, if it was that easy to knock you over, man,
you would never become an NHL So like, I mean,
he's just Flailly. I'm like, oh, here we are.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
But yeah, they know exactly what to do.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
You mentioned Florida had eleven power plays and Edmonton, you know,
game one, they seem to come in with such confidence.
We've talked about it ad nauseum about it just seems
like the Team of Destiny seems like a different team.
They win the Western Conference Finals, they have no shame
about touching the trophy, like they're going to go out
and win this and then do you feel like maybe
there's some immaturity. I don't even say it's an experience
because they were there last year. But like you said,
(04:28):
playing they know what they don't they can't do in
order to beat Florida. They need to play the offensive game,
they need to play the skill game. Do you think
Florida is just that annoying that to get under their skin? Like,
is it something that Florida is just that good at
or is it something where Edmonton is still just showing
a little bit of an experience there.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yeah, I mean I think it's just more it's yeah,
I mean, I don't know if there's a Florida Panther
that I would want to hang out with, like that
would you get annoying pretty clearly, But like in general,
they shouldn't be engaging in the way that they are.
And and even in the first two games, I don't think
they did like like in the second game, Florida just
(05:06):
won like that it was a good game, did what
you know, Like, I have no real complaints about how
that one went, aside from Bennett, you know, taking out
a goalie. But the last night just there was just
no excuse everything everything they went wrong immediately. I'm a
little nervous about McDavid injury wise, you know, I didn't know,
we don't know what. I don't know what Nugent Hopkins'
(05:27):
situation was. They banked around with the defenseman lineup like
I it is. I'm like, I don't know if right
now is the time to mess anything up, but they
seem to be trying so.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
And I think too, Like Paul Maurice in his press
conferences afterwards, he's joking around. He's they're saying, you know, well,
Sam Bannon hasn't done a lot, yeah, or Barkoff hasn't
done a lot in this series. Oh yeah, We're going
to trade him and he just I don't I don't
even want to call it arrogance. It's certainly annoying if
you're not a Florida Panthers fan that they just they
just seem to be so so confident, comfortable, they're not worried,
(06:03):
and I think that's starting to rub people the wrong way.
But it's also kind of like it's a little bit
scary as someone who's bet against the Florida Panthers in
this series and bet on the Oilers to see players
like that, coaches like that is going okay. They don't
seem to be rattled, like after Game one, maybe there
was a little bit of rattle, but they just really
don't seem to be which is a little bit scary.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
I guess.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
On the plus side, we did do well in our
bets recapping previously, just just to quickly recap what I
still have alive. Aout the Oilers to win the Cup,
had them to win Game one in the Cup, that's
still alive, Sam Bennett the most goals in the series.
That's still looking like it's very very alive as well.
And then in game this would be for Game two,
but the Vibrowski over on the saves. That seems like
(06:43):
it can just be something bet over and over again.
The over six that hit in game two, in game three,
I went under for Game three, and as you mentioned,
there was that Lake goal that brought that to under
six and a half. And then on your side. For
your sake, I hope that this doesn't end in five
games because that would mean that the oilers I don't
win again. But McDavid most points is still alive. You've
(07:03):
bet him to get two plus points, which he's done
almost you know, every single game, the overs and then
a great call last time for the Corey Perry point
and perhaps an anytime goal at plus two seventy. So
on the plus side, we're at least betting this series
fairly correctly, which I think is a good sign. Before
we start talking about game four and more bets, I
(07:24):
do just want to quickly tell you about an offer
at FanDuel. So if you want to boost your bets,
new FanDuel customers can bet five dollars and win two
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. If that first
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Speaker 3 (07:40):
To get started.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
That's bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel. Make your plays on
FanDuel today, start looking ahead to game four and try
to win two hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
So we've got a couple of.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Days here because the next game, Game four, isn't until Thursday.
But the opening line here, it's certainly juicy in favor
of the Florida Panthers or minus one forty five. The
Edmonton Oilers are plus one thirty five over under is
basically staying where it's always been. You can find a six,
you can find a six and a half. So, first
of all, talk about with the Oilers being down, if
you want to talk about the zig zag theory, you
(08:13):
would think maybe they'd be a little bit more in
favor of Edmonton. But tell me about what you think
of Florida at minus one forty five.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
So objectively, I'll switch to objective. But I also wanted
to mention that the two bets I put on out
on Twitter last night was Anton Lindell to get a
point and Bennett to score a goal. So like you
and I are putting bets out there every day even
if we're not doing this, so it's going to take
a look. But objectively, I think that's too high for Florida.
It's certainly too juicy to bet in my opinion, given that, Yeah,
(08:44):
game three was awful, they look dominant, like but also
okay again, like you're telling me that they're that much better.
That is difficult to eat. Now if it drops to
like one twenty, I might minus one twenty. I might
take it because they're at home, because Edmonton loves to
dig holes for themselves. But yeah, and I say I'm
(09:06):
going I think I'm going under on the six and
a half, just like we talked about, like there's one
under game and it wasn't yesterday, and so I you know,
and there are stats on Twitter that talk about which
I don't really necessarily believe in. But Stuart Skinner in
game four's is lights out now, okay, like what does
(09:27):
that mean? I don't know it, Just like I feel
like it's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Considering the oilers are almost always playing from trailing in
a series. I think that's a good Like he can
play under adversity. I think he can play when when
the chips are down a little bit, and I do
agree with you. I think Panthers at minus one forty
five one fifty is just not happening for me. One
of my favorite bets is Oiler's money line because it's
one thirty one thirty five. To me, Oilers have been
a good road team the whole series.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
I think.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
I don't want to say you can take the home
ice out homee advantage out of it for either side.
Florida's loud, Edmonton's certainly loud as well, But when you're
at this stage with the way Edmonton's been playing, I
think that when you're getting up to one forty one
to fifty, they've shown they can win on the road.
They've been you know, Game one, they win, Game two
is close, they lose in overtime. Yeah, there's the blip
here in Game three, but I don't think this series
(10:15):
is nearly as lopsided. It was a crappy game for
Edminton in Game three, Like that's when you can crumple up,
throw in the garbage, not look at the tape. I
don't think there's Do you think there's a lot that
they can take out of that game? Aside from the
penalties or is that just one of those like, look,
we just didn't have it tonight, Skinner didn't necessarily have
it tonight. They still had chances like can you just
throw that tape in the garbage or do you think
(10:35):
it might be a bigger issue.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
I'm going with the tape in the garbage. I mean
you have to have short term memory loss in the final,
Like there's just no other way to play it. You know,
you and I were joking about novelty bets, like what
would the chances have been that Jake Wallman was going
to spray the other bench with water? When that When
that started happening, I just thought, oh, we are so
off the rail. As I texted my friends, I was like,
(10:58):
I was like, and this game is drunk, Like I
don't even know what else to do with it. So, yeah,
to me, it was such an anomaly and it's such
an outlier that to bet based on how it went,
I'm not interested in that it was Florida's first home game.
I mean there was a lot going for Florida that
in this whole thing, So I'm hoping beyond hope that yeah,
(11:21):
it was a blip, and I.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Think too a lot of times when you have these instances,
whether it's hockey or other sports too, you have this
game where it kind of you know, it ends in
a little bit of fighting, or there starts the animosity
and obviously there's a rivalry from last year, and then
all of a sudden, you know, the media or people
like us are putting all these expectations on the next game, like, Oh,
what's gonna happen? Rarely does that actually, you know, come
to fruition. I don't think we're gonna get the you know,
(11:45):
Pedro Martinez throwing an old man to the ground thing. Like,
I feel like this is going to be not a
one and done. Like I think it's gonna be a
little bit chippy because it's the finals. But I don't
think you're gonna get one hundred and thirty five penalty minutes.
I don't think you're gonna get eleven power plays. I
don't think you're going to get a ton of fights.
There's too much at stake now too. And we talked
last time about the winner of game winner of a
(12:07):
Tide series, or maybe we didn't talk about it. I
talked about it on the YouTube short the winner of
Game two in a Tide series wins a series seventy
one percent of the time. I don't have the stats
for this one, but I think you can pretty much
say if you go up three one in a series,
it's probably in the nineties. So Edmonton has to win
this game. I think they can't play around with this
this foolery, or they can't lean into what the Panthers
(12:29):
want to do, or they might be in big trouble.
Then you mentioned the total as well, you're leaning more
towards the under of the six and a half. I
do like the over, but on the six, I think
it's just I agreed last time I thought that was
going to be the under of the series because it
was tied. I'm now at the point where it's like,
I'm just going to bet over six until it stops happening,
which very well could be in this game as well.
(12:51):
But it's like, just watching these two teams I play,
I almost feel like it's hard for them not to
at least get to six.
Speaker 3 (12:56):
But you do lean towards the under.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Yes, yeah, I do, just a little bit. And I
it's dangerous. I mean it's really dangerous, like tomorrow or
on Thursday. I might just decide randomly that I'm gonna
go with the over six and a half because I've
I've been doing that depending on how the line moves,
but I think under the six and a half. But
I you know, you and I've talked about I love
You're over six, Like that's over six just feels like
(13:18):
the right choice pretty much every time these two teams play.
But the other thing I was gonna say is like
looking at like I so I was looking at last
year when the Oilers went down three to zero, and
I remember after Game two they lost four to one,
and I mean it looked like I had the same
feeling that I had yesterday where I'm like, I don't
even know who this team is. It's this is just
this is just gross. And and then game three they lost
(13:41):
four to three and it was super close. So like,
I feel like game they're just reversed this year. Game
two was this was that one. But then they came
the Oilers came out and won eight to one in
game four, and so it's like that fire again, that
firepower is there, and if they get on a roll,
they get on a roll, like yeah, you know, then
it's we're off to the races again. But if they
(14:02):
try to, if they try to fight and be more
annoying than the Panthers, they will lose every single time.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
Yeah, they have to play their game, and they can
show when they do play that game, they can put
up six, seven, eight goals. I think it's Bibarovski, especially
sitting back there, if you let him get comfortable, if
you're not taking a ton of shots, if you're playing
this game that lends into Florida what they want you
to do. He can just kind of sit, but you've
got to keep him moving side to side, and he
did make some great saves last night, but I think
(14:27):
that that's going to be a way that you can
get to him. We do have a question here. I
think Edmonton still has the series, gonna win game four.
I think it goes to seven games. Not a non
betting question. What has been your favorite storyline of the
playoffs so far? So I would assume probably for you,
it's the Oilers getting to the finals. But if I'm wrong,
what has been your favorite storyline so far?
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Well, first of all, it's very nice to see you,
and your question is great, and you're my new favorite
watcher anyway.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
But Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
For me, it's really kind of been the McDavid ken
McDavid win the Cup because I like, I get it
really annoyed when people are like, oh, he never won,
he never won, and so like, yeah, I mean I
disagree that he has to to be considered like great,
but it would be really nice to get that off
the back. And then really, and honestly, and I really
(15:16):
hate to say this, but like what watching Sam Bennett
do what he's done, what he's doing is it's just
like how do you you know, how do you stop him?
What is going on? Like, so I think it would
be that between those two McDavid getting the Cup and
then Bennett just being dumbly good.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
And I hate to agree with everything that you're saying,
but we're having this conversation when we were watching the
game last night. Of as much as I dislike Florida
because they always eliminate the Leafs and just the way
they play, but then you look at the team and
you go, well, this is like half of Team Canada here,
so it's hard for me to root against them. So
I'm just rooting for Bennett and Ryan Hart and Marshawn
you know a couple of months ago, going to be
(15:57):
rooting for the get for them again in the Olympics
up coming, So it would be nice to see some
of those players win the Stanley Cup. But obviously, at
the end of the day, my favorite storyline is Evant
just getting back there because it's not the easiest thing
to do. Seeing Connor McDavid's maturity, him sort of changing
his personality a little bit, wanting to go after it
(16:17):
and win the Cup. And you did mention another question
I had for you this off topic that reminded me
we were again having this conversation last night comparing guys
like McDavid to in the people in the past, like
Crosby and Gretzky. I'm not going to compare McDavid to
Gretzky yet, certainly, but when you look at someone like
Crosby who has three cups, like all things equal, McDavid's,
(16:39):
you know, certainly a better goal scorer. You could even
argue a better playmaker as well. But do you think
all things equal, he needs those one, two, three cups
to be considered the greatest or it doesn't matter quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
I think he well, he for sure needs one, right
and it would be I think he somehow would get
a boost because you know, narratives are weird sometimes, But
I think he gets a boost if they win it,
and they're the first Canadian team to win it since,
you know, nineteen ninety three. So in that regard, I
feel like that he for sure needs one. If in two,
(17:10):
three would be great. And it's hard to Yeah, it's
hard to quantify exactly how many he would need to
fit into that conversation, but the comparison with Crosby is good.
But and some of what he can do is comparative
to Gretzky. It's just Gretzky's numbers look like they were
made in a lab somewhere.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, I often do that. I'll go on to Hockey
Reference and then in baseball going to Baseball Reference and
just look at Barry Bonds and Wing Gretzky's numbers and
go like, yeah, I mean, I remember the tail ends
of their career, but just looking at them, going how
did this even ever happen? It's unbelievable. But I'm of
the mind, I'm sort of always of the mind if
all things are equal, the championship sort of, I don't
(17:52):
think you have to have one to be considered the greatest.
Certainly doesn't hurt. And it's like, you know, all things equal,
if they finished with the exact same number of points.
Because we had three cups and McDavid had zero, I
think that does tilt it that way too. Speaking of
awards and stuff like that, I did want to mention
the con smythe because it's shifted quite a bit really
(18:12):
So before this series started, McDavid was your favorite twin
the con Smite at plus one twenty, Bobroski plus two
to fifty, bark Off at plus five fifty. That has
changed drastically, where now Sam Bennett is the favorite to
win the con Smite at plus one seventy five. McDavid's
down to two fifty, and then you've got Marshan plus
four hundred, Bobrovski plus four fifty, and then at the
(18:33):
bottom at the end of this list Dry Sidle plus
twelve hundred. So do you think there's any I know,
we both got McDavid I think around plus one sixty.
Kind of kicking myself for that now, or maybe do
you want to double down on McDavid at plus two
to fifty do you think do you think anybody else
from Edmonton should they win this series is going to
get it now that we're three games in, and then
objectively looking at Florida, do you think it's Bennett, Do
(18:56):
you think it's Marshan, or do you think it's Bobrovski.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Yeah, I was going to say, like, given the odds
where they are at this point, I would if you
haven't bet it yet, I would go Bennett McDavid, like
you're guaranteed a profit, and and I think depending on
which team wins, it's going to be one of those two,
just because again of what Bennett has done offensively, the
fact that he's now the leader, and I also think,
(19:22):
you know, unless I'm terrible at predicting which week my favory.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Well could be.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
But I feel like I feel like the others are
going to come back and Peboky is going to give
up a couple more goals and and so it's going
to swing really hard toward a forward. So yeah, at
this point, with those numbers, I would bet both of them,
and I wouldn't have any trouble hedging my McDavid but
with Bennett. But I'm not going to double down on McDavid.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
So yeah, that's exact that I was going to say.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
I don't think Bobrovski, We've got, you know, two, three,
four games left to go in this series. I don't
think Bobrovski is going to be able to like he'd
in my opinion, you need to get two or three shutouts.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Uh well, he wouldn't be able.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
To get three, but he would need two shutouts or
a shot out at least to sort of get into
that conversation. I think this is definitely more of a
forwards series. So Marshawn at plus four hundred, I don't hate.
It's an instance of can he keep it going? I
know he's been great. He's him in Bennett of combined
for eight goals in the series. I don't know if
he can keep it going. But I think if you
(20:18):
did want to take someone from Florida, take Bennett plus
one seventy five. I think if you haven't bet McDavid
yet plus two to fifty, it's.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Not going to get better than that. I don't think.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
I think it would either continue to go in Florida
Panthers favor or his number is going to go down
from there. So we can finally start to talk about
game four, start talking about our bets. Touched on the
money line, touched on the total. As we head into
game four. Now you know old Stuart Skinner returned at
the worst possible time. He's pulled after the fifth goal. There,
(20:47):
Brad Marshawn becomes the oldest player to score in three
straight Stanley Cup Finals games. Do you think he's the
biggest trade deadline acquisition in recent memory for any team?
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Yes? Yeah, I mean Brandon and started off as that, right,
but Marshan for what they give up a second round,
I mean it's absurd, that's way they gave.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
Out almost all.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
And he's now considering re signing in Florida as well,
so he might be sticking around. I think it's rare
to see someone that has fit in as well as
he has with the team. I mean that certainly the
play styles are there, and Ranton was great for Dallas,
but you almost kind of had this. It's either Ranton
in or the rest. You didn't sort of have rant
In and the rest, where Marshawn just seems to be
(21:29):
fitting in completely, completely fluidly. Sam Bennett scored his leading
fourteenth goal of the playoffs after big hit causing a turnover.
So he's really playing an all around game. And all
the big names for Florida scored in game three, you
and Verhage, You had Ryan Hart, you had Eckblad, big
storyline in Edmonton, Connor McDavid, you know, before this series started,
there's a little bit of controversy.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
He left practice. Is he hurt and he.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Takes a pretty decent hit last night, and he left
the game briefly. He came back seemed okay, But do
you think there's any smoke to that fire?
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Do you think there's any fire to that smoke?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
When he left, I got a little concerned. I mean
I think I actually said out loud that that's that
that concerned me. But like he came back so quickly
that it was one of those like did he need
something for a skate or like it didn't look necessarily
like he was out for down for the count, let's
go that way. But I don't yeah, I mean, I
don't like how the I don't like how it looked.
(22:21):
I don't like Newton Hopkins looking how he looked like
everything and dry Sidle looked slow. It was just like
the weirdest kind of game last night that no one
looks like they were no one looked like they were
totally in it. But we talked about that. I mean,
if McDavid is even kind of injured, then just count it.
Speaker 3 (22:40):
Yeah. And dry Settle had zero shots in game three?
How much of it?
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Because we did see that a couple times in previous
series where he would just kind of not disappear, but
he wouldn't really be part of the offensive game. Then
you know, he explodes for three points or two goals
or something. How much do you make of zero shots
in game three? Going into game four and McDavid to
that point too, McDavid had two shots, Nugent Hopkins only
had one.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Well, they couldn't get anything. I mean there was no offense.
There's no flow at all. There was absolutely zero flow
for the end and those dry title for sure needs
the flow to make it work because he sets up
so well and he does his shots, you know, the
one timers are I would rather have him doing one
timers than pretty much anyone else, I think. But if
(23:22):
there's if there's not any sort of game flow, if
McDavid's not moving, if it's like it, then he his
game is really really impacted and they just would not
give anything up last night. So I'm not concerned. He
did get shut out at one time in Dallas, so
I think he'll come back strong on the shots on goal.
But I don't like your second note here where he
(23:44):
talks about that Corey Perry led the team with five
like that's just leads the team with five. That's that's
not where we want to be.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
And yeah, I mean he's been good. I mean, as
we mentioned, he's scoring, he's producing. But when your team
looks like your team makeup is the way the Oilers
is Corey Perry Like, if that's a one off, okay,
But if that ends up becoming the trend of he's
getting the most shots on your team every night, you're
in big trouble. And I think that's something that Edmonton's
going to have to figure out. And then when you
(24:14):
look at the goaltending situation, we thought we'd put this
to bed, but is the door open for Calvin Picard
to play or is this just again a bad game?
Put it to bed. Skinner's the guy he's going back
in at for Game four. There's no controversy here.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
I would I will predict if they give up if
he gives up two goals in the first period, he's
out the pull him immediately. I don't they will. I
think his hook is much shorter now just because they
can't follow that far behind, because that was the other
thing that happened, right, Like if you go down two
one and then you go three to one, and then
they could just be physical, like they could just throw
(24:50):
everybody around for the rest of game, like there was
just nothing because then they just had to protect it.
So so yeah, I mean, I think Picard his music
isn't playing yet, but like everyone knows he's in the arena,
So I feel like Skinner is gonna have to come
out strong or it'll be over real fast.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
And do you think if they did make the switch
that that would play into like is that a good
thing for Florida or a good I mean, obviously a
good thing for Evonton if they're having to pull their
starting goalie. But you who do you think this boost
gives to of Florida saying Okay, we got him out
of here, now we've got pickcard in he hasn't played
in a while, or is it more more on the
Edmonton side of okay, Well, he was good last time.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
Let's see we've got this time.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Yeah, I mean I think that was when, you know,
going into game three in the first round, right, we
were like, oh yeah, here we go, like we're pulling
Skinner Placard and Picard was so good that when they
decided to put Skinner back in because Picard got hurt,
we were all just like, oh, here we go, right,
and he just came out and what did three shutouts
or something like? I mean, so I feel like I
(25:52):
just feel like Evonton Goldtening is just like throw, like
flip a coin and tell me what it comes up as,
and that's how it could go. Whereas Florida of course,
just gets to hang out and as long as Bibroxkia
doesn't get bumped then everything's fine.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
But yeah, and Bbrovski's been again. He's just been good
and he's been steady. Made thirty two of thirty three saves.
Did have a couple of big chances, a couple big
stops on McDavid there, And does it concern you at
all as an Edmonton fan, Like when we're having this conversation,
a lot of the storyline center around is McDavid hurt?
What happened with dry Sidle. Why is Corey Perry leading
(26:27):
the team in shots? Why is Stuart Skinner playing the
way he is? And then when we look at the
Florida side, there aren't really a lot of question marks.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Yeah no, and you know, again it's the and I
don't mean to keep saying like again, but it is.
I think when the way that the questions are framed,
like all of the pressure is kind of and always
has been on Edmonton here, like because Florida won it
last year and Florida is just taking like the and
I will use the word arrogant, like they're just going
(26:54):
with arrogance because that is their personality. I mean, that's
the team's personality and it's a decent one to try
to win. It just makes for really bad hockey. But
I think that that, yeah, it's it's going to be
a question and now the pressure has arrived in terms
of well, what's going on, what's wrong? And you know
you want to avoid those questions, then don't play like
you did last.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Night exactly, And we talked about it already. Just special
teams is obviously going to continue to be a big
factor here. You had twenty eight penalty minutes in game two,
you at one hundred and thirty eight in Game three,
fifteen minor penalties. I mean, at the end of the day,
you want to win and lose these games playing five
on five and made the best team win. If you're
going to keep giving matter who you are, if you're
Florida or Edmonton, you cannot continuously give these teams the.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Power play advantage.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
So before we get into our favorite bets, I did
just want to quickly tell you about the NHL prop
bet cheat sheet on the Betting Pros app because it's
the best. If you're betting props on Thursday's action, you
want to be using the NHL prop bet cheat sheet.
It shows you the very best value plays every day.
You can get your daily prop bet value rankings based
on projections, find the best props for shots on all points, saves,
(28:01):
and more. Use it now at bettingpros dot com, slash
NHL props or on the Betting Pros app so those
will be live on Thursday, and then once the NHL
is done, you can transition over to using the MLB
prop bet cheat sheet and also the brand new WNBA
prop bet cheat sheet, which I used quite a bit
today for three bets on the Liberty game, because I
think they're gonna beat this guy up pretty badly. But
(28:24):
as we again we're two days away from Game fourst
we'll do the best job we can to give you
the best bets for what's available out there.
Speaker 3 (28:30):
I will start.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
I've got the Edmonton Oilers on the money line. It's
plus one thirty. I just I think you can actually
get better odds now. I just love that. I don't
think the Florida Panthers at minus one fifty is a
good play. May Florida win maybe, But if you're giving
me plus one thirty on the Oilers, I'm gonna take
it to even up the series. And then I know
it's juicy. You can go to six and a half
(28:52):
if you want. But I just like I always say
the push potential at six, if we get a four
to two final something of that nature, give me the
over six until they that A can't go over six
minus one twenty five and then Brad Marshad is my
early player prop. He's just been so steady, he's been
so consistent. He's playing on all the special teams as
power play goals. He has shorthanded goals. He has even
(29:12):
strength goals and he's helping out on the top line
as well, So I will keep that hot hand there
with Brad Marshawan. To get one plus points for minus
one twenty, I think you can get a minus one
fifteen some places too, but minus one twenty on the board, all.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
Right, So I'm gonna I'm going with the regression to
the mean, right, so I think dry title comes out
with two plus points. It's at plus one fourteen. I
like the same as you right where I just feel
like they are going to have to bounce back, and
I think that there will be like a concerted effort
to get him more involved than what he was yesterday.
(29:45):
Evan Bouchard is like leading the Oilers in shots on
goal I think by a wide margin, and he had
nine last night. So the idea that he would get four,
he's been shooting like he's just been shooting like crazy.
So at plus one fifty eight, I, you know, three
was so juiced. I was like, well, let's just go
to four because I think that he can get there.
And then I'm not gonna I'm not going against Bennett
(30:06):
like I mean, plus one eighty for him to you know,
get to do to keep doing what he's doing. I'm like, then, yeah,
there's no point in that that that's a good number
for him.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
So yeah, the props have been so heavily favored on
the Edmonton side that it's like they almost don't realize that,
you know, Florida's scoring three or four goals a game too. Uh,
And so there's a lot of potential on the goals there.
And as you mentioned, with Bouchard just watching the games,
that's the way they want to play. He's just teeing
it out from the point, hoping to get a tip
from dry Siddle or McDavid in front of the net
(30:38):
Corey Perry as well, and he's just letting it fly.
And he's letting it fly, especially if you're getting you know,
five or six power plays. He's the one that's running
point back there. So that about does it for to day.
We will be back again on Friday and we're either
going to have a three one series or hopefully a
two to two series, and we've got a best of
three and we can sort of start all over again.
So be interesting to see how this game goes. I'm
(31:01):
really hoping the Oilers can tie it up, not just
for my bets, but also for the fact that the
conference finals are pretty short. I'm hoping the Stanley Cup
finals aren't that short as well, and would like to
see the Stanley Cup back in Canada. So before we
get out of here, tell the people where they can
find you and where they can see your best.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
All right, on Twitter slash x at the Wonky Penguin.
On Blue Sky I am at the Wonky Penguin, and
then on Betting Pros a also I do a daily
prop article, but you can find me. It's Bettingpros dot
com slash you slash Wonky Penguin. There we go.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
You can follow me on socials at Tyler Conium, on
Betting Pros at Bettingpros dot com slash you slash Tyler
Conium as well. So on that note, we'll get out
of here. If you're watching this on YouTube, make sure
you follow us on Twitch, Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros.
We back Friday three pm Eastern to talk about the
Stanley Cup Finals.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
Have a good one.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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