August 5, 2025 • 27 mins
Punch your tickets for the playoffs; Join Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer for their top 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and predictions!
Is odds-on favorite Scottie Scheffler (+280) set up for another runaway, or could Viktor Hovland (+3500) be the hero this week? Plus, can Wyndham Clark (+4500) stay hot at TPC Southwind?
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections. Plus, we reveal our one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Wyndham Championship Recap - 0:00:16
BettingPros App - 0:04:13
TPC Southwind Breakdown - 0:04:46
Novig - 0:09:11
The Favorites - 0:10:03
The Mid-Range Plays - 0:19:43
The Longshots - 0:23:08
Betting Cards Review - 0:25:07
One-&-Done Selections - 0:25:48
Outro - 0:26:38
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. The three week FedEx Cup playoffs
begin on Thursday with the FedEx Saint Jude Classic, and
we are going to preview that tournament from a betting perspective.
But first, let's quickly recap the final event of the
PGA Tour regular season, the Windham Championship, and I can
(00:21):
promise you a very quick recap because this one was
a blowout. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour victory,
winning by six shots. He opened with rounds of sixty
three and sixty two, shot a sixty five on Saturday
to carry a big lead into the final round, and
then he birdied five straight holes on the front nine
to pretty much eliminate any drama. Young led by nine
(00:44):
shots at one point he put it on cruise control
on the back nine. He finished twenty two under par
Mac Meisner won the race for second place. He was
sixteen under. Mark Hubbard and Alex Norin tied for third
at fifteen under. Cameron Young became the one thousandth different
player to ever win a PGA Tour event. That's kind
(01:04):
of a fun stat bo. It's kind of hard to
believe the twenty eight year old Young had not won before.
It's a very good player who's contended in a bunch
of different events in recent years, and he's shown up
in majors. Cam Young was runner up at the Open
Championship in twenty twenty two. He's had a couple of
top tens at the Open, also at the Masters, couple
(01:24):
of top tens, finished fourth at this year's US Open,
and he's had a top five finish at the PGA Championship.
And now Cameron Young is ranked twenty first in the world.
Your thoughts on Cameron Young's victory at the wind.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Him It was really impressive. He's got all the game.
I think the mental side of it has been eluding
him for a while, but it's always been it's always
been the short game in the putting that has really
taken him down a notch or two. And he's always
kind of scored well on Sundays in all those runner
(01:58):
up finishes that he's had, so it's no wonder that
he finally puts together a great round of ball striking.
He gained a ton of strokes off the tee and
on approach, but he gained tons of strokes on putting
as well, and it was mainly because he was hitting
it so close on approach. He was hitting it so
close on approach. I think the longest putt he made
(02:19):
all week was thirty five feet, which which means he
was sticking it in there real close and making the
putts that mattered. He made a lot of birdies sixty
three sixty two to start the tournament, pretty much put
everybody on notice that they're going to have to score
like crazy to keep up with him. But that course
was playing tough. Sedgefield was playing pretty fast, it was
(02:42):
playing difficult with all the undulation on the greens. The
moisture didn't really slow the course down as much as
that it made the rough even more penal cam young,
all the talent in the world, I kind of think
that it was meant to be where his first win
was gonna make him the one thousandth unique champion on
the PGA Tour. That's really cool, and he's still really young. Obviously,
(03:07):
growing up as a son of a teaching professional, kind
of like Justin Thomas Is, there's a lot of expectations
growing up for that person to become a professional golfer
and one that wins, and where we've seen JT win
a lot over the years, Cameron Young has been oh
so close, and now the door just got blown off.
And with how good he is playing now, we're definitely
(03:31):
looking at him host in his home state, possibly making
that Ryder Cup team at Bethpage Black in next month.
That's gonna be really interesting to see if he can
parlay this success at the Windham into the playoffs to
get into that team, because that would be really cool.
Team USA needs all the help it can get against Europe,
even at home this year. Cam Young being the New Yorker,
(03:56):
that'll be huge for the Team USA if he can
make it.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Yeah, see if Young can keep the momentum going into
the FedEx Cup playoffs. And we will get to the
betting preview for the first event of the playoffs, the
FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship in just a moment.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
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Speaker 1 (04:45):
The top seventy FedEx Cup point earners have qualified for
the playoffs. That number is down from last year when
the top one hundred qualified, and the top fifty finishers
this week will advance to next week's BMW Championship. From there,
the top thirty advance to the Tour Championship, and these
events have some big purses, especially the season ending Tour
(05:06):
Championship with its top prize of ten million dollars. The
FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship is a no cut event.
Everyone plays seventy two holes. The tournament will be played
at TPC South Wind in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a par
seventy course measuring seven thousand, two hundred and eighty eight yards.
This course was built on a former dairy farm.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Bow Oh, that's right up your alley.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Scenery includes a couple of grain silos in a windmill.
No word on whether they have good cheese curds on site,
but the greatest defense mechanisms at TPC south Wind are
water and thick rough water comes into play on quite
a few holes. It's especially prominent on the eleventh, fourteenth,
and eighteenth holes. The eleventh is a par three with
(05:50):
an island green, and it's listed at one hundred and
sixty eight yards, which makes it about thirty yards longer
than the island hole at TPC Sawgrass. Fourteenth is a
two hundred and five yard par three with water in
front of the green and to the right of the green.
The eighteenth is a four hundred and fifty three yard
par four with water running down the left side of
the hole. Missed the Zouja grass fairways and you'll often
(06:14):
find thick chewy Bermuda rough and TPC south Wind as
tight fairways. Of course also has small firm Bermuda greens.
The average approach shot at TPC south Wind is from
right around one hundred and sixty yards out. That's five
or six yards closer than the average approach distance on tour.
Adeki Matsuyama is the defending champ. He finished seventeen under
(06:36):
power last year, two shots better than Xanderschoffle and Victor Hovland.
Lucas Glover won here in twenty twenty three, finishing fifteen
under par and beating Patrick can't Lay in a playoff.
Will Zlatorres was minus fifteen and beat Stepstrak in a
playoff in twenty twenty two, and Tony Fino beat Cam
Smith in a playoff to win here in twenty twenty one.
Seems like an event that draws a lot of playoff finishes.
(06:59):
Both of those guys feed on Campsmith were twenty under
par in twenty twenty one. The weather forecast this week
calls for hot, sticky conditions, no surprise for Memphis this
time of year, high temperatures in the mid nineties all
four days with mostly sunny conditions. There's no rain in
the forecast, and the wind should be light throughout the tournament. Bow.
What's it going to take to win a TPC South.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
One Accuracy and consistency, and if you are off, you
have to be able to make a par. Avoid bogie,
avoid double bogie. Double bogie avoidance here is huge because
these greens, not only are they small and firm, but
they put fast and fast Bermuda is tricky. It throws
a whole monkey wrench into a lot of stat models
(07:40):
unless you filter for fast Bermuda greens. Because this course
is right around too or average for length arounds just
over seventy two hundred yards. It's really narrow, it's really tight,
and if you miss your spots, you're not going to
have a good time making par, very penal rough off
the fairways if you miss, and then if you miss
the greens to be able to scramble and get up
(08:01):
and down, because this is just everything about this course
is tricky, but good shots are rewarded here. So if
you're somebody at the top of this leaderboard, or if
you're something somebody's trying to sneak into that top fifty
to play the BMW next week, it's going to have
to be hitting quality shots all four days, no blow
up holes, because this course will take away what you
(08:23):
give it. And that's why you see good winning scores
between twelve and eighteen under par and sometimes an outlier
at twenty under par. But judging by hot and humid conditions,
it's going to be a grind for a lot of
these guys. But that doesn't mean that there's not gonna
be a few guys that go pretty low. If you
have good shots going in there, there's gonna be some
(08:46):
good scores out there for top seventy. I think it's
a really great opening salvo to the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
It is, indeed, And if you hit fairways and greens,
you're gonna have birdie luck. Yes, so you will get
penalized by you know, the roth in the water, But
there are birdy opportunities here for sure. And we will
get to the odds in just a moment, right after
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Speaker 1 (10:03):
Let's take a look at the odds for the FedEx
Saint Jude Championship. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as
of Monday afternoon. Scottie Scheffler opens as an overwhelming favorite
at plus two point eighty. No surprise there. Rory McElroy
is skipping this one. He's the only player in the
top seventy to skip it out. That's okay. He gets
a free pass to the BMW Championship next week. Xanders
(10:25):
Schoffley is plus sixteen hundred, Justin Thomas plus twenty two hundred,
Tommy Fleetwood plus twenty five hundred, Ludwig Oberg plus twenty
eight hundred at plus three thousand, our Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Hovland,
Russell Henley Patrick Cantley and Colin Morrikawa, Cameron Young, Sandburns
and Corey Conners are plus thirty five hundred and at
plus four thousand wee have Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Hedeki Matziama,
(10:47):
Sepstraca and Harris English. Who is worth considering from this group? Bo?
And what are we doing with Scotty at such short odds?
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Well, it's been a few weeks, but we're going to
do the Live Scotty. The Live Scotty is going to
be really fun to play this week because if he
gets off to a slower start, which he hasn't played
this course particularly well, because faster Bermuda greens, when you
hit that filter on the model Scotty Scheffler goes down
to the very bottom of this field. In putting, it's
(11:17):
quite remarkable. He's having the best putting season of his
entire career and it still shows struggling on Bermuda greens
that are running fast on faster than twelve on the stemp.
These greens will be running twelve on the stemp. They're Bermuda,
they're tricky, they're undulating, they're fast, They're so fast, and
I think that Scotty still has everything else to win here,
(11:40):
but maybe he gets off to a slow start and
maybe we get some odds that slip to better than
five to one or even ten to one. That's when
I'm gonna be betting on Scotty Scheffler. Don't give up
on him. Just don't bet him at plus two to eighty.
You're not going to get enough bang for your buck
to make it worthwhile watching him annihilate this field. I'm
going to start my card at Justin Thomas JT at
(12:01):
twenty two to one. It's a little short for my
liking because of his struggles off the tee lately. But
if you look at good drives gained, he's still in
the top ten in this field. If you're looking at
fairways gained, he's he's forty six. So there's a big
difference between how you measure what good tea shots look like.
Last week you wanted fairways gained because hardly anybody was
(12:23):
hitting driver off the tee at the window. On this course,
you're gonna see a lot of drivers. You're gonna see
three woods. You're not gonna see a lot of chopped
off shots. You're gonna be wanting to hit driver in
the fairway, and Justin Thomas has been pretty good overall
at putting himself in position for birdie looks on approach
and what that's where his bacon has made every year
(12:43):
of his career is Justin Thomas on approach is nails,
and he's one of the best scramblers on the tour.
Justin Thomas twenty two to one is where I'm going
to start, and it's also going to include Patrick can't
Let at thirty five to one, which I didn't think
I was going to be interested in can't lay this week,
but he's never won in my model, and thirty five
one's pretty durn good. So I think I'll take the
(13:05):
bait at Patrick Cantley and hope that he does something
anything this week unlike the rest of this season. And
then Sam Burns at forty to one. Sam Burns forty
to one, best putter in this field, annihilates Bermuda Greens.
He's so good at making birdies on these courses, the
exact parameters of this golf course in this event, it
just screams Sam Burns to me. So he's going to
(13:25):
get a pretty aggressive investment at forty to one.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Yeah, Sam Burns was fifth here at TPC south Wind
last year, second in twenty twenty one, but he's finished
forty seventh or worse in each of his last three events.
I do wonder if he's hit a wall bow, so
I think I'll let you find out on that one.
I don't know if I'm gonna be with you on
Sam Burns with can't lay. I'm curious is his push?
(13:50):
I mean he is on the bubble for a Ryder
Cup spot. Is that part of it? Like, he has
to play well in the playoffs I think to get
in or he might get passed by the Ben Griffins
and Chris godder Ups and Cameron Yong's.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
He's a guy that's also played well on firm, fast
golf courses that are in this kind of Bermuda setup.
He's struggled on bent grass, he struggled on your poana surfaces.
He struggled on on fescue, of course, but he's top
five and pretty much every stat category with how I
filtered it, top five in every single category. So yes,
(14:24):
he has all the motivation in the world to do
well in the playoffs and get onto that Ryder Cup team,
or at least solidify his spot on that team. But
I think he's got a chance to win here. He's
he's starting to turn his game around the last couple months.
Nothing noteworthy in results category, but I think that it's
just too good of a guy to ignore. Thirty five
(14:44):
to one.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Yeah, you mentioned JT. When I've mentioned recent winners at
the FedEx Saint Jude, I cut it off right before
we got to Justin Thomas back in twenty twenty when
he won. He hasn't recorded a top ten in his
last three trips just TP Southwind And yeah, as you said,
I mean he's one hundred and sixty first in driving
accuracy and by the way, just ahead of him one
(15:08):
hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy Xander Schoffley. Yeah, so
he he did finish top ten at the Scottish Open
and the Open Championship last month, and was second at
the FedEx Saint Jude Championship last year. But yeah, the
one hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy not great, nor
is the one hundred and thirty second ranking in strokes
gained putting For Xander. What do you make of oberg
(15:32):
Bo He's had kind of an up and down season,
but he did play pretty well in the Scottish Open
and Open Championship. He was fortieth last year in the
FedEx Saint Jude that was his debut in this event.
Is he of value at twenty eight to one or no.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
I think he's the opposite of a value. I think
he's completely inflated with how I modeled him. He's forty
eighth out of seventy in my model, and he's not
in the top ten in any category.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Zero.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
This is a player who's the struggled immensely with mid
iron approach, which is completely opposite of what he did
in his big season last year. Off the t he's
been a little erratic and his short game has not improved.
He's fifty ninth in this field for scrambling. I am
completely off overg I wouldn't even bet him if he
(16:18):
was at fifty to one. That I think this is.
This is going to be a struggle tournament for Ludwig Oelberg,
despite the talent. I think his game is in a
really bad place right now for the playoffs to start.
I could be wrong, but I'm not anywhere near him.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Yeah, you mentioned those approach shots. So I said the
average approach shot on this course was one hundred and
sixty yards, and there are a lot of approach shots
on this course to come from that one hundred and
fifty to one hundred and seventy five yard range. Yes,
Victor Hovlin finished second last year in this event, and
he certainly has the sort of ball striking profile we're
(16:54):
looking for. Oh. By the way, he is second in
strokes game on approach shots from one hundred and fifty
to one hundred and seventy five yards and second second
on strokes gain on approach overall. So Hoveland intrigues me here.
You know, the short game is always an adventure with
Victor Hoveland, But I'm pretty sure a striking is there too.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
That the way he's played here over the years.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
He has played it well. Russell Henley bow hasn't played
much lately, but he has four straight top tens dating
all the way back to the Memorial in late May.
He's only played four tournaments dating back to the Memorial.
Henley finished sixth in this event two years ago, and
as we've mentioned on the show many times, Henley tends
to do his best work on courses with Bermuda Greens.
(17:41):
Any interest in Matt Fitzpatrick top ten and four straight events,
top ten in this event three the last six years.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
No thanks. He's done it two links courses followed by
two courses with very lackluster fields, straight fields. He's in
the big boy waters now this week, and his short
game is just not good enough here. He's a good shipper,
but his putting's not that great. He's off the tee.
He's been all over the place. I like him, but
(18:08):
in this field he's just kind of middle of the pack,
hanging around and maybe a top twenty bet. I don't
think he cracks the top ten here this week, but
you mentioned a couple guys that I'm interested in. Victor Hovland.
Of course, everybody's gonna be on Hovland this week for
good reason. He's won here twice and he's been top
five every other time except for one miscut kind of
(18:29):
wedged in there. That's a horse for the course. We
do have some predictability with this tournament being at this
golf course every year for the playoffs, and Victor Hovelin
in the playoffs tends to be a different animal together,
so I will be watching that line I'm not in
on him yet, but the approach numbers are undeniable, and
he's just gonna put himself in so many scoring opportunities.
(18:52):
The question will be will he convert them? And can
he avoid the big number when he inevitably gets in
trouble off the tee.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And two players. I would warn people about investing in
Hideki Matsuyama, who did win here last year and was
runner up in twenty twenty one. His strokes gain stats
at TPC south Wind are pretty strong, but he's had
kind of a lackluster season by his standards. Maybe he's
pulling it together. He's finished thirteenth, sixteenth, and nineteenth in
his last three events. I just don't think he's ready
(19:21):
to win against a strong field and Kegan Bradley for
his final season as he's having. He did miss the
cut at the Windham, and he has been bad at
TPC South Wind, finishing forty third or worse in his
last five trips, and his strokes gain stats on this
course are like worst in the field, among the worst
in the field. Let's look at more of the odds
(19:43):
at plus forty five hundred are Chris got her up?
Jordan speedth JJ Spahn, Robert McIntyre, Harry Hall and Daniel
Berger at plus five thousand, we Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry
and Maverick McNeely. Aaron Ry and Jake Knapp are plus
fifty five hundred, Jason Day plus six thousand, Aksha Batiya Kurk,
Kitty I'm and Danny McCarthy a plus sixty five hundred.
(20:05):
Taylor Pendrith and Max Grazerman are plus seven thousand, and
plus eight thousand are Brian Harmon, Lucas Glover, Justin Rose, JT.
Post and Ricky Fowler and Nick Taylor. Do you like
any of these mid range options?
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Bo? I mean, as crazy as it sounds, I like
Wyndham Clark this week. Wyndham Clark has been a ball
striking dynamo this this last couple of weeks. I think
you're starting to figure it out again. And this is
the best putter on Bermuda in this field. This is
a that's a red hot golfer who has had his
trials this season. Let's just say his anger has gotten
(20:41):
the best of him multiple times. But since then he's
turned his game around and now he's number four in
my model, and the only place that I'm showing him
not looking that great is on the shorter approach. Bucket
won twenty five to one fifty, but on the one
fifty to one seventy five and the one seventy five
plus he's great. And he's obviously the best putter on Bermuda,
(21:02):
so he also top ten and par four scoring. He's
been really good at getting good drives off the tee lately.
That's last twenty four rounds number three in this field,
and birdies are better gained. Wyndham Clark at fifty five
to one is an extreme value. I thought he would
be somewhere around forty. Fifty Five to one on him
is great. And then Nick Taylor. It seems to be
(21:25):
when the courses get fast and they're not too long
in accuracy seems to be the premium. This is a
Nick Taylor type of golf course. This is a lot
like what's that a Winsor course that they've played a
couple of years ago when he made that bomb. This
is a very similar golf course, except this is a
little faster. Even I think that Nick Taylor eighty to
(21:48):
one is a really nice value too. That's those are
the two guys I have highlighted in this middle price.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, Chris Gotterrup comes in red hot after a fabulous July,
and you won the Scottish Open, finished third at the
Open Championship, finished tenth at the three m. This will
be his FedEx Saint Jude Championship debut. The downside is
that he can be wayward off the tee and he
is barely inside the top one hundred in strokes gain
an approach this year. I'm kind of mildly interested in
(22:17):
Robert McIntyre, just really solid off the tee and with
his irons. He's finished top fifteen in his last two
trips here. But if you want a horse for the course,
let me throw two names out there. Bo Daniel Berger
fabulous track record at TPC south Wind. He had back
to back wins here in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. He
was second here in twenty twenty fifth here in twenty
(22:38):
twenty one, which was his last FedEx Saint Jude appearance.
Burger's strokes gained TETA green and strokes ganin and approach
numbers at TPC south Wind are fantastic best in the
field and Lucas Glover is actually a horse for the course.
He won here in twenty twenty three, third in twenty
twenty two, and he's played pretty well the last couple
of months. Ninth at the Travelers, fifth of the John Deere,
(23:01):
twenty third at the Open Championship. Glover's very accurate off
the tee and strong with his irons. All right, bo,
there are twenty eight players in this sixty nine man
field with odds of ninety to one or longer. Are
any of them worth a flyer?
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I'll take a little shot on seaw Kim. Very accurate
player off the t He's not going to hurt himself.
His putting has been atrocious, but he seems to do
a little bit better on Bermuda. It seems like if
you get Seawoo Kim into a groove with the putter,
if he sees a couple go down on Thursday, we're
in business. But if he doesn't, then that's it. It's
(23:38):
baked into ninety to one. Chris Kirk is a horse
for this course, one hundred to one. He's just metrically
looking great. Chris Kirk is a stat darling, and at
one hundred and one, I'm kind of looking for that.
I'm looking for those stat darlings that number two in
this field and opportunities gain number two in that shorter
approach bucket, he's number fifteen at worst any of those
(24:00):
approach buckets. He's doing really good on approach this season.
Very bad putter. That's the one thing about Chris Kirk
that worries me here. But he's going to give himself
chances to make Berdie's another guy who is priced accordingly
to just struggling with the flat stick. This year's it
seems to be like they can get there off the tee.
(24:21):
Sewou and Kirk get there off the tee. They're good
on approach, and then nothing's going down this season. But
those could both change. These these are smaller greens, so
if they're on with their irons, they're not going to
look at too many long putts for Bertie. If the
opportunities are there, they have a chance to make them.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
I was just gonna say, bow and a course with
smaller greens, maybe I'm a little bit more willing to
bet on suspect putters.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Yeah, like Lucas Glover's.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Yeah, I mean that's sort of it, because you know
you're just you're going to be looking at shorter pots.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Absolutely so.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
And Chris Kirk does come in with some momentum too.
He's fourteenth was fourteenth if the three of them open
two weeks ago, fifth at the Windham last week. He's
finished top twenty two of his last four trips to
TPC South wind Okay, bo, who do you have on
your early betting card?
Speaker 3 (25:09):
So?
Speaker 2 (25:09):
I have Justin Thomas at twenty two to one, Patrick
Cantley at thirty five to one, Sam Burns at forty
to one, win them, Clark at fifty five, Nick Taylor
at eighty, Sebu Kim at ninety and Chris Kirk at
one hundred.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
All right, I am betting Victor Hovland at thirty to
one and Russell Henley at thirty to one. I'm betting
Daniel Berger at forty five to one, also betting him
for a top five at plus six point fifty Lucas Glover.
I'm gonna bet these horses for courses. Bo Uh, Lucas
Glover eighty to one, and I like the top five
kicker on him at eleven to one, and I'm betting
(25:46):
Chris Kirk at one hundred to one. Now for a
one in done picks. There was no blood last week.
See the first time all year bowhead Keegan Bradley, Captain America,
missed the cut. I had Akshay Battia who was going
to miss the cut, but withdrew with a few holes
left to play on Friday. Just two weeks for me
to close a million dollar gap on you bo. But
(26:08):
this is a big money event. I'm up first. I'm
taking Victor Hoveland.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
All right for you, Takor Hoveland. So I had a
problem where I took all the top guys out of
the field here and I've already used pretty much everybody here,
but I am going to take this is controversial because
it's not that far up. I'm going to use Wyndam Clark.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Wyndham Clark. It is Wyndam Clark for bow Victor Hovelin
for me. And that's all for this week's Betting Pros
PGA podcast. Please join us again next week when we
will be previewing the penultimate event of the season, the
BMW Championship. Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
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Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. The three week FedEx Cup playoffs
begin on Thursday with the FedEx Saint Jude Classic, and
we are going to preview that tournament from a betting perspective.
But first, let's quickly recap the final event of the
PGA Tour regular season, the Windham Championship, and I can
(00:21):
promise you a very quick recap because this one was
a blowout. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour victory,
winning by six shots. He opened with rounds of sixty
three and sixty two, shot a sixty five on Saturday
to carry a big lead into the final round, and
then he birdied five straight holes on the front nine
to pretty much eliminate any drama. Young led by nine
(00:44):
shots at one point he put it on cruise control
on the back nine. He finished twenty two under par
Mac Meisner won the race for second place. He was
sixteen under. Mark Hubbard and Alex Norin tied for third
at fifteen under. Cameron Young became the one thousandth different
player to ever win a PGA Tour event. That's kind
(01:04):
of a fun stat bo. It's kind of hard to
believe the twenty eight year old Young had not won before.
It's a very good player who's contended in a bunch
of different events in recent years, and he's shown up
in majors. Cam Young was runner up at the Open
Championship in twenty twenty two. He's had a couple of
top tens at the Open, also at the Masters, couple
(01:24):
of top tens, finished fourth at this year's US Open,
and he's had a top five finish at the PGA Championship.
And now Cameron Young is ranked twenty first in the world.
Your thoughts on Cameron Young's victory at the wind.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Him It was really impressive. He's got all the game.
I think the mental side of it has been eluding
him for a while, but it's always been it's always
been the short game in the putting that has really
taken him down a notch or two. And he's always
kind of scored well on Sundays in all those runner
(01:58):
up finishes that he's had, so it's no wonder that
he finally puts together a great round of ball striking.
He gained a ton of strokes off the tee and
on approach, but he gained tons of strokes on putting
as well, and it was mainly because he was hitting
it so close on approach. He was hitting it so
close on approach. I think the longest putt he made
(02:19):
all week was thirty five feet, which which means he
was sticking it in there real close and making the
putts that mattered. He made a lot of birdies sixty
three sixty two to start the tournament, pretty much put
everybody on notice that they're going to have to score
like crazy to keep up with him. But that course
was playing tough. Sedgefield was playing pretty fast, it was
(02:42):
playing difficult with all the undulation on the greens. The
moisture didn't really slow the course down as much as
that it made the rough even more penal cam young,
all the talent in the world, I kind of think
that it was meant to be where his first win
was gonna make him the one thousandth unique champion on
the PGA Tour. That's really cool, and he's still really young. Obviously,
(03:07):
growing up as a son of a teaching professional, kind
of like Justin Thomas Is, there's a lot of expectations
growing up for that person to become a professional golfer
and one that wins, and where we've seen JT win
a lot over the years, Cameron Young has been oh
so close, and now the door just got blown off.
And with how good he is playing now, we're definitely
(03:31):
looking at him host in his home state, possibly making
that Ryder Cup team at Bethpage Black in next month.
That's gonna be really interesting to see if he can
parlay this success at the Windham into the playoffs to
get into that team, because that would be really cool.
Team USA needs all the help it can get against Europe,
even at home this year. Cam Young being the New Yorker,
(03:56):
that'll be huge for the Team USA if he can
make it.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Yeah, see if Young can keep the momentum going into
the FedEx Cup playoffs. And we will get to the
betting preview for the first event of the playoffs, the
FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship in just a moment.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
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Speaker 1 (04:45):
The top seventy FedEx Cup point earners have qualified for
the playoffs. That number is down from last year when
the top one hundred qualified, and the top fifty finishers
this week will advance to next week's BMW Championship. From there,
the top thirty advance to the Tour Championship, and these
events have some big purses, especially the season ending Tour
(05:06):
Championship with its top prize of ten million dollars. The
FedEx Cup Saint Jude Championship is a no cut event.
Everyone plays seventy two holes. The tournament will be played
at TPC South Wind in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a par
seventy course measuring seven thousand, two hundred and eighty eight yards.
This course was built on a former dairy farm.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Bow Oh, that's right up your alley.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Scenery includes a couple of grain silos in a windmill.
No word on whether they have good cheese curds on site,
but the greatest defense mechanisms at TPC south Wind are
water and thick rough water comes into play on quite
a few holes. It's especially prominent on the eleventh, fourteenth,
and eighteenth holes. The eleventh is a par three with
(05:50):
an island green, and it's listed at one hundred and
sixty eight yards, which makes it about thirty yards longer
than the island hole at TPC Sawgrass. Fourteenth is a
two hundred and five yard par three with water in
front of the green and to the right of the green.
The eighteenth is a four hundred and fifty three yard
par four with water running down the left side of
the hole. Missed the Zouja grass fairways and you'll often
(06:14):
find thick chewy Bermuda rough and TPC south Wind as
tight fairways. Of course also has small firm Bermuda greens.
The average approach shot at TPC south Wind is from
right around one hundred and sixty yards out. That's five
or six yards closer than the average approach distance on tour.
Adeki Matsuyama is the defending champ. He finished seventeen under
(06:36):
power last year, two shots better than Xanderschoffle and Victor Hovland.
Lucas Glover won here in twenty twenty three, finishing fifteen
under par and beating Patrick can't Lay in a playoff.
Will Zlatorres was minus fifteen and beat Stepstrak in a
playoff in twenty twenty two, and Tony Fino beat Cam
Smith in a playoff to win here in twenty twenty one.
Seems like an event that draws a lot of playoff finishes.
(06:59):
Both of those guys feed on Campsmith were twenty under
par in twenty twenty one. The weather forecast this week
calls for hot, sticky conditions, no surprise for Memphis this
time of year, high temperatures in the mid nineties all
four days with mostly sunny conditions. There's no rain in
the forecast, and the wind should be light throughout the tournament. Bow.
What's it going to take to win a TPC South.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
One Accuracy and consistency, and if you are off, you
have to be able to make a par. Avoid bogie,
avoid double bogie. Double bogie avoidance here is huge because
these greens, not only are they small and firm, but
they put fast and fast Bermuda is tricky. It throws
a whole monkey wrench into a lot of stat models
(07:40):
unless you filter for fast Bermuda greens. Because this course
is right around too or average for length arounds just
over seventy two hundred yards. It's really narrow, it's really tight,
and if you miss your spots, you're not going to
have a good time making par, very penal rough off
the fairways if you miss, and then if you miss
the greens to be able to scramble and get up
(08:01):
and down, because this is just everything about this course
is tricky, but good shots are rewarded here. So if
you're somebody at the top of this leaderboard, or if
you're something somebody's trying to sneak into that top fifty
to play the BMW next week, it's going to have
to be hitting quality shots all four days, no blow
up holes, because this course will take away what you
(08:23):
give it. And that's why you see good winning scores
between twelve and eighteen under par and sometimes an outlier
at twenty under par. But judging by hot and humid conditions,
it's going to be a grind for a lot of
these guys. But that doesn't mean that there's not gonna
be a few guys that go pretty low. If you
have good shots going in there, there's gonna be some
(08:46):
good scores out there for top seventy. I think it's
a really great opening salvo to the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
It is, indeed, And if you hit fairways and greens,
you're gonna have birdie luck. Yes, so you will get
penalized by you know, the roth in the water, But
there are birdy opportunities here for sure. And we will
get to the odds in just a moment, right after
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Speaker 1 (10:03):
Let's take a look at the odds for the FedEx
Saint Jude Championship. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as
of Monday afternoon. Scottie Scheffler opens as an overwhelming favorite
at plus two point eighty. No surprise there. Rory McElroy
is skipping this one. He's the only player in the
top seventy to skip it out. That's okay. He gets
a free pass to the BMW Championship next week. Xanders
(10:25):
Schoffley is plus sixteen hundred, Justin Thomas plus twenty two hundred,
Tommy Fleetwood plus twenty five hundred, Ludwig Oberg plus twenty
eight hundred at plus three thousand, our Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Hovland,
Russell Henley Patrick Cantley and Colin Morrikawa, Cameron Young, Sandburns
and Corey Conners are plus thirty five hundred and at
plus four thousand wee have Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Hedeki Matziama,
(10:47):
Sepstraca and Harris English. Who is worth considering from this group? Bo?
And what are we doing with Scotty at such short odds?
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Well, it's been a few weeks, but we're going to
do the Live Scotty. The Live Scotty is going to
be really fun to play this week because if he
gets off to a slower start, which he hasn't played
this course particularly well, because faster Bermuda greens, when you
hit that filter on the model Scotty Scheffler goes down
to the very bottom of this field. In putting, it's
(11:17):
quite remarkable. He's having the best putting season of his
entire career and it still shows struggling on Bermuda greens
that are running fast on faster than twelve on the stemp.
These greens will be running twelve on the stemp. They're Bermuda,
they're tricky, they're undulating, they're fast, They're so fast, and
I think that Scotty still has everything else to win here,
(11:40):
but maybe he gets off to a slow start and
maybe we get some odds that slip to better than
five to one or even ten to one. That's when
I'm gonna be betting on Scotty Scheffler. Don't give up
on him. Just don't bet him at plus two to eighty.
You're not going to get enough bang for your buck
to make it worthwhile watching him annihilate this field. I'm
going to start my card at Justin Thomas JT at
(12:01):
twenty two to one. It's a little short for my
liking because of his struggles off the tee lately. But
if you look at good drives gained, he's still in
the top ten in this field. If you're looking at
fairways gained, he's he's forty six. So there's a big
difference between how you measure what good tea shots look like.
Last week you wanted fairways gained because hardly anybody was
(12:23):
hitting driver off the tee at the window. On this course,
you're gonna see a lot of drivers. You're gonna see
three woods. You're not gonna see a lot of chopped
off shots. You're gonna be wanting to hit driver in
the fairway, and Justin Thomas has been pretty good overall
at putting himself in position for birdie looks on approach
and what that's where his bacon has made every year
(12:43):
of his career is Justin Thomas on approach is nails,
and he's one of the best scramblers on the tour.
Justin Thomas twenty two to one is where I'm going
to start, and it's also going to include Patrick can't
Let at thirty five to one, which I didn't think
I was going to be interested in can't lay this week,
but he's never won in my model, and thirty five
one's pretty durn good. So I think I'll take the
(13:05):
bait at Patrick Cantley and hope that he does something
anything this week unlike the rest of this season. And
then Sam Burns at forty to one. Sam Burns forty
to one, best putter in this field, annihilates Bermuda Greens.
He's so good at making birdies on these courses, the
exact parameters of this golf course in this event, it
just screams Sam Burns to me. So he's going to
(13:25):
get a pretty aggressive investment at forty to one.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Yeah, Sam Burns was fifth here at TPC south Wind
last year, second in twenty twenty one, but he's finished
forty seventh or worse in each of his last three events.
I do wonder if he's hit a wall bow, so
I think I'll let you find out on that one.
I don't know if I'm gonna be with you on
Sam Burns with can't lay. I'm curious is his push?
(13:50):
I mean he is on the bubble for a Ryder
Cup spot. Is that part of it? Like, he has
to play well in the playoffs I think to get
in or he might get passed by the Ben Griffins
and Chris godder Ups and Cameron Yong's.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
He's a guy that's also played well on firm, fast
golf courses that are in this kind of Bermuda setup.
He's struggled on bent grass, he struggled on your poana surfaces.
He struggled on on fescue, of course, but he's top
five and pretty much every stat category with how I
filtered it, top five in every single category. So yes,
(14:24):
he has all the motivation in the world to do
well in the playoffs and get onto that Ryder Cup team,
or at least solidify his spot on that team. But
I think he's got a chance to win here. He's
he's starting to turn his game around the last couple months.
Nothing noteworthy in results category, but I think that it's
just too good of a guy to ignore. Thirty five
(14:44):
to one.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Yeah, you mentioned JT. When I've mentioned recent winners at
the FedEx Saint Jude, I cut it off right before
we got to Justin Thomas back in twenty twenty when
he won. He hasn't recorded a top ten in his
last three trips just TP Southwind And yeah, as you said,
I mean he's one hundred and sixty first in driving
accuracy and by the way, just ahead of him one
(15:08):
hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy Xander Schoffley. Yeah, so
he he did finish top ten at the Scottish Open
and the Open Championship last month, and was second at
the FedEx Saint Jude Championship last year. But yeah, the
one hundred and sixtieth in driving accuracy not great, nor
is the one hundred and thirty second ranking in strokes
gained putting For Xander. What do you make of oberg
(15:32):
Bo He's had kind of an up and down season,
but he did play pretty well in the Scottish Open
and Open Championship. He was fortieth last year in the
FedEx Saint Jude that was his debut in this event.
Is he of value at twenty eight to one or no.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
I think he's the opposite of a value. I think
he's completely inflated with how I modeled him. He's forty
eighth out of seventy in my model, and he's not
in the top ten in any category.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Zero.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
This is a player who's the struggled immensely with mid
iron approach, which is completely opposite of what he did
in his big season last year. Off the t he's
been a little erratic and his short game has not improved.
He's fifty ninth in this field for scrambling. I am
completely off overg I wouldn't even bet him if he
(16:18):
was at fifty to one. That I think this is.
This is going to be a struggle tournament for Ludwig Oelberg,
despite the talent. I think his game is in a
really bad place right now for the playoffs to start.
I could be wrong, but I'm not anywhere near him.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Yeah, you mentioned those approach shots. So I said the
average approach shot on this course was one hundred and
sixty yards, and there are a lot of approach shots
on this course to come from that one hundred and
fifty to one hundred and seventy five yard range. Yes,
Victor Hovlin finished second last year in this event, and
he certainly has the sort of ball striking profile we're
(16:54):
looking for. Oh. By the way, he is second in
strokes game on approach shots from one hundred and fifty
to one hundred and seventy five yards and second second
on strokes gain on approach overall. So Hoveland intrigues me here.
You know, the short game is always an adventure with
Victor Hoveland, But I'm pretty sure a striking is there too.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
That the way he's played here over the years.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
He has played it well. Russell Henley bow hasn't played
much lately, but he has four straight top tens dating
all the way back to the Memorial in late May.
He's only played four tournaments dating back to the Memorial.
Henley finished sixth in this event two years ago, and
as we've mentioned on the show many times, Henley tends
to do his best work on courses with Bermuda Greens.
(17:41):
Any interest in Matt Fitzpatrick top ten and four straight events,
top ten in this event three the last six years.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
No thanks. He's done it two links courses followed by
two courses with very lackluster fields, straight fields. He's in
the big boy waters now this week, and his short
game is just not good enough here. He's a good shipper,
but his putting's not that great. He's off the tee.
He's been all over the place. I like him, but
(18:08):
in this field he's just kind of middle of the pack,
hanging around and maybe a top twenty bet. I don't
think he cracks the top ten here this week, but
you mentioned a couple guys that I'm interested in. Victor Hovland.
Of course, everybody's gonna be on Hovland this week for
good reason. He's won here twice and he's been top
five every other time except for one miscut kind of
(18:29):
wedged in there. That's a horse for the course. We
do have some predictability with this tournament being at this
golf course every year for the playoffs, and Victor Hovelin
in the playoffs tends to be a different animal together,
so I will be watching that line I'm not in
on him yet, but the approach numbers are undeniable, and
he's just gonna put himself in so many scoring opportunities.
(18:52):
The question will be will he convert them? And can
he avoid the big number when he inevitably gets in
trouble off the tee.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
And two players. I would warn people about investing in
Hideki Matsuyama, who did win here last year and was
runner up in twenty twenty one. His strokes gain stats
at TPC south Wind are pretty strong, but he's had
kind of a lackluster season by his standards. Maybe he's
pulling it together. He's finished thirteenth, sixteenth, and nineteenth in
his last three events. I just don't think he's ready
(19:21):
to win against a strong field and Kegan Bradley for
his final season as he's having. He did miss the
cut at the Windham, and he has been bad at
TPC South Wind, finishing forty third or worse in his
last five trips, and his strokes gain stats on this
course are like worst in the field, among the worst
in the field. Let's look at more of the odds
(19:43):
at plus forty five hundred are Chris got her up?
Jordan speedth JJ Spahn, Robert McIntyre, Harry Hall and Daniel
Berger at plus five thousand, we Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry
and Maverick McNeely. Aaron Ry and Jake Knapp are plus
fifty five hundred, Jason Day plus six thousand, Aksha Batiya Kurk,
Kitty I'm and Danny McCarthy a plus sixty five hundred.
(20:05):
Taylor Pendrith and Max Grazerman are plus seven thousand, and
plus eight thousand are Brian Harmon, Lucas Glover, Justin Rose, JT.
Post and Ricky Fowler and Nick Taylor. Do you like
any of these mid range options?
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Bo? I mean, as crazy as it sounds, I like
Wyndham Clark this week. Wyndham Clark has been a ball
striking dynamo this this last couple of weeks. I think
you're starting to figure it out again. And this is
the best putter on Bermuda in this field. This is
a that's a red hot golfer who has had his
trials this season. Let's just say his anger has gotten
(20:41):
the best of him multiple times. But since then he's
turned his game around and now he's number four in
my model, and the only place that I'm showing him
not looking that great is on the shorter approach. Bucket
won twenty five to one fifty, but on the one
fifty to one seventy five and the one seventy five
plus he's great. And he's obviously the best putter on Bermuda,
(21:02):
so he also top ten and par four scoring. He's
been really good at getting good drives off the tee lately.
That's last twenty four rounds number three in this field,
and birdies are better gained. Wyndham Clark at fifty five
to one is an extreme value. I thought he would
be somewhere around forty. Fifty Five to one on him
is great. And then Nick Taylor. It seems to be
(21:25):
when the courses get fast and they're not too long
in accuracy seems to be the premium. This is a
Nick Taylor type of golf course. This is a lot
like what's that a Winsor course that they've played a
couple of years ago when he made that bomb. This
is a very similar golf course, except this is a
little faster. Even I think that Nick Taylor eighty to
(21:48):
one is a really nice value too. That's those are
the two guys I have highlighted in this middle price.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, Chris Gotterrup comes in red hot after a fabulous July,
and you won the Scottish Open, finished third at the
Open Championship, finished tenth at the three m. This will
be his FedEx Saint Jude Championship debut. The downside is
that he can be wayward off the tee and he
is barely inside the top one hundred in strokes gain
an approach this year. I'm kind of mildly interested in
(22:17):
Robert McIntyre, just really solid off the tee and with
his irons. He's finished top fifteen in his last two
trips here. But if you want a horse for the course,
let me throw two names out there. Bo Daniel Berger
fabulous track record at TPC south Wind. He had back
to back wins here in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. He
was second here in twenty twenty fifth here in twenty
(22:38):
twenty one, which was his last FedEx Saint Jude appearance.
Burger's strokes gained TETA green and strokes ganin and approach
numbers at TPC south Wind are fantastic best in the
field and Lucas Glover is actually a horse for the course.
He won here in twenty twenty three, third in twenty
twenty two, and he's played pretty well the last couple
of months. Ninth at the Travelers, fifth of the John Deere,
(23:01):
twenty third at the Open Championship. Glover's very accurate off
the tee and strong with his irons. All right, bo,
there are twenty eight players in this sixty nine man
field with odds of ninety to one or longer. Are
any of them worth a flyer?
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I'll take a little shot on seaw Kim. Very accurate
player off the t He's not going to hurt himself.
His putting has been atrocious, but he seems to do
a little bit better on Bermuda. It seems like if
you get Seawoo Kim into a groove with the putter,
if he sees a couple go down on Thursday, we're
in business. But if he doesn't, then that's it. It's
(23:38):
baked into ninety to one. Chris Kirk is a horse
for this course, one hundred to one. He's just metrically
looking great. Chris Kirk is a stat darling, and at
one hundred and one, I'm kind of looking for that.
I'm looking for those stat darlings that number two in
this field and opportunities gain number two in that shorter
approach bucket, he's number fifteen at worst any of those
(24:00):
approach buckets. He's doing really good on approach this season.
Very bad putter. That's the one thing about Chris Kirk
that worries me here. But he's going to give himself
chances to make Berdie's another guy who is priced accordingly
to just struggling with the flat stick. This year's it
seems to be like they can get there off the tee.
(24:21):
Sewou and Kirk get there off the tee. They're good
on approach, and then nothing's going down this season. But
those could both change. These these are smaller greens, so
if they're on with their irons, they're not going to
look at too many long putts for Bertie. If the
opportunities are there, they have a chance to make them.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
I was just gonna say, bow and a course with
smaller greens, maybe I'm a little bit more willing to
bet on suspect putters.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Yeah, like Lucas Glover's.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Yeah, I mean that's sort of it, because you know
you're just you're going to be looking at shorter pots.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Absolutely so.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
And Chris Kirk does come in with some momentum too.
He's fourteenth was fourteenth if the three of them open
two weeks ago, fifth at the Windham last week. He's
finished top twenty two of his last four trips to
TPC South wind Okay, bo, who do you have on
your early betting card?
Speaker 3 (25:09):
So?
Speaker 2 (25:09):
I have Justin Thomas at twenty two to one, Patrick
Cantley at thirty five to one, Sam Burns at forty
to one, win them, Clark at fifty five, Nick Taylor
at eighty, Sebu Kim at ninety and Chris Kirk at
one hundred.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
All right, I am betting Victor Hovland at thirty to
one and Russell Henley at thirty to one. I'm betting
Daniel Berger at forty five to one, also betting him
for a top five at plus six point fifty Lucas Glover.
I'm gonna bet these horses for courses. Bo Uh, Lucas
Glover eighty to one, and I like the top five
kicker on him at eleven to one, and I'm betting
(25:46):
Chris Kirk at one hundred to one. Now for a
one in done picks. There was no blood last week.
See the first time all year bowhead Keegan Bradley, Captain America,
missed the cut. I had Akshay Battia who was going
to miss the cut, but withdrew with a few holes
left to play on Friday. Just two weeks for me
to close a million dollar gap on you bo. But
(26:08):
this is a big money event. I'm up first. I'm
taking Victor Hoveland.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
All right for you, Takor Hoveland. So I had a
problem where I took all the top guys out of
the field here and I've already used pretty much everybody here,
but I am going to take this is controversial because
it's not that far up. I'm going to use Wyndam Clark.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Wyndham Clark. It is Wyndam Clark for bow Victor Hovelin
for me. And that's all for this week's Betting Pros
PGA podcast. Please join us again next week when we
will be previewing the penultimate event of the season, the
BMW Championship. Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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