July 1, 2025 • 26 mins
Make the most of a lesser field that tees of in the Midwest this week; Join Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer for their top 2025 John Deere Classic picks and predictions!
Is Ben Griffin (+1600) worthy of being the betting favorite? Does Michael Thorbjornsen's (+3000) consistency make him a threat to win? Plus, can Cristobal Del Solar (+100000) be the latest longshot to cash for the boys?
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections. Plus, we reveal our one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Rocket Classic Recap - 0:00:17
BettingPros App - 0:05:56
TPC Deere Run - 0:06:42
Novig - 0:10:34
The Favorites - 0:11:44
The Mid-Range Plays - 0:18:24
The Longshots - 0:21:46
Betting Cards Review - 0:24:53
One-&-Done Selections - 0:25:33
Outro - 0:26:17
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,
joined as always by Beau mcbrear. We're going to give
you a full betting preview of the John Deere Classic.
We'll analyze the course, the odds, our favorite bets, and
we'll make our one and done picks at the end
of the show. But let's start with a very quick
recap of the Rocket Classic. Youth is served in Detroit,
(00:21):
and so is Beau mcbrear's wallet. Twenty year old Aldrich Pottgeeter,
the big hitting South African, wins his first PGA tournaments.
He came oh so close to winning the Mexico Open
back in February, but was edged out by Brian Campbell.
There would be no denying pot Geter this time. But
this year's Rocket Classic was quite the Battle Royal. There
(00:44):
were a lot of players in contention throughout the weekend.
At one point on Saturday afternoon, there were thirty two
players within two shots of the league. And yeah, there
were a lot of guys still in the hunt as
of Sunday, including a lot of players BO and I
talked about as compelling long shit on last week's show.
Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp, and of course pot Geter. So
(01:06):
Potkeeter got off to a slow start on Sunday. After
taking a small lead into the final round, he was
won over par after six holes. That led a bounch
of other players into contention thorb Bijornsen, Knapp, Chris Kirk,
Max Grazerman and others. But Potkeeter birdie the seventh and
eighth holes to jump start his final round. Then he
(01:27):
birdied thirteen and fourteen. He bogied the par three fifteenth,
but then made a key birdie on the par five
seventeenth to get him to twenty two under par that
got him into a three way playoff with Max Grazerman
and Chris Kirk. All three players parted the first playoff hall,
pot Keeter and Grazerman part the second playoff hall, but
Kirk missed a four foot par putt and was eliminated.
(01:48):
Pot Keeter and Grazerman both parted the third playoff hole
and then bertie the par five sixteenth. All finally on
the fifth playoff hole, the par three fifteenth, Grazerman could
not convert a birdie try from thirty fourth feet and
Potkeeter rolled in in eighteen footer to get the victory.
Hats off to you. Bow. On last week's show, you
talked about Potkeeter as a compelling long shot because of
(02:09):
how well his power would play at the Detroit Golf Club.
I wasn't convinced. After almost winning the Mexico Open, Podgeter
missed the cut in seven of his next eight events,
but he broke the cold streak with a sixth place
finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge in late May. He
hadn't played in another tournament since then. I know you
sold at least one of our viewers on pot Geter bow.
(02:32):
He sent us a screen shot of a nice four
figure win. Congratulations to Ryan. So give me your thoughts
on the Rocket Classic bow and remind me what number
did you get on pot Geter. Our buddy Ryan got
him at one hundred and ten to one.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah. I ended up getting him on Wednesday, along with
Max Grazerman, who was too short. When we recorded the
show last week, I had him on my short list
of people to watch as he opened at thirty five
to one. That was too short for my liking. Razerman
at forty five to one, and I got pot Keeter
at one hundred and twenty to one. So I was
celebrating as soon as Chris Kirk got knocked out and
(03:08):
jubilant when he missed the birdie putt that because Chris
Kirk should have won that playoff in the first hole,
the first playoff hole, he had the short birdie putt
and missed it on the high on the high side,
it didn't break at all. He played, he played outside
the hole and missed it, and then he got knocked
out with a three putt, and I was like, Okay,
no matter what, I got this in the bag. But
(03:29):
now I'm kind of rooting for the younger South African
because he's gonna win me more money. I'd already cash
top five bets with Grazerman as well as Thorbjornsen. So
it was a very good week. It was our second
win this year of seventy to one or better. Things
are good. Things are good. The bank rolls happy that
I had a couple more roll in that got him
(03:51):
at one hundred to one. One guy kind of hedged
his bets that didn't pan out early on the tournament
and got him at eight to one. Just because I
was kind of pushing it a little harder once. Once
he shot that early sixty one or sixty two I
think he shot on the first day, it was it
was a full steam ahead for Aldrich pot Geter. And
(04:13):
really it was another bombing goage week at the Rocket Classic,
just as I predicted. It was very similar to the
Mexico Open at Vedanta, because that is there's no defense
to the course, there's no penalty for being wayward. And
although pot Geter is definitely going to struggle on more
traditional golf courses that have danger off the tee or
(04:35):
danger with how poor his wedge play was, his chipping
was a nightmare. If pot Geter didn't win that tournament,
we could point right to his short game as the culprit.
But thankfully he had enough, he made enough putts to
pull it together on that fifth playoff hole and finish
the job for us. That was nice, and it was
(04:56):
just it was good to It was good to be right.
We all love being right, but it's really good to
be right on somebody who There was a handful of
people that were on him as a long shot because
of the power element, but again we hadn't seen him
in over a month. He had completely stopped playing in tournaments.
He got all new clubs, He redid his entire game
(05:17):
over that last month since the Charles Schwab so that
him retooling and coming to a place that was as
friendly to his style of play as Detroit. That was
all I needed to see.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Yeah, you have to pick the right venue for pot Caeter.
For sure. You knew exactly when to get back on
the Aldrich Pott Keeter Express. I was not ready to
go with you, but overall, bow pretty good month of
June for the podcast. I think March was our golden
month in twenty twenty four. I think June has been
(05:50):
the one this year.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
If this guy finds a short game, lookout, Let's.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
See if we can keep the heat turned up going
into July. We'll get to the John dere Classic in
just a moment. Right after bau McBriar tells you about
the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Go ahead and download the free Betting pros app for
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(06:29):
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using code juice and activating your trial on the upgrade screen.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
The John Deer Classic returns to TPC Deer Run in
western Illinois near the Illinois Iowa border. TPC Deer Run
is a par seventy one that measures seven eighty nine yards.
Course was designed by former tour player da Wybring. As
with last week's Rocket Classic, the John Deere Classic is
going to be a birdie fast, go low or fall behind,
(07:04):
and we do not have a star studded field for
this event. The big names are sitting this one out
the fair way is it TPC Deer Runner nice and wide,
The greens are large and those greens are bent grass
by the way, and there's some elevation changes at TPC
Deer Run, so players will occasionally be faced with uneven lies,
but this is one of the easier courses the PGA
(07:26):
Tour Pros will play all year, and unlike last week,
big hitters don't really have a huge advantage. After all,
Zack Johnson used to dominate this event and he's always
been one of the shortest staterers on tour. Steve Stricker
owned this event for quite a while, he wasn't a
big hitter. Davis Thompson is the defending John Deere champion.
Last year he just completely blitz the field, finishing twenty
(07:47):
eight under par, four shots better than Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke
Clanton and ct PAN. Sepstraca won here in twenty twenty three,
he was minus twenty one. JT post in one. In
twenty twenty two he was also minus twenty one, and
Lucas Glover won. In twenty twenty one, heaus minus nineteen.
It's going to be hot in Silvis, Illinois for this
(08:09):
event his in the low nineties and oper eighties. It
could get a little breezy at times, especially on Friday
and Saturday with wins in the ten to twenty mile
an hour range, when should be a little lighter on
Thursday and Sunday more than five to ten mile per
hour range. Bow your thoughts on TPC Deer Run and
what it's going to take to win the John Dear Classic.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
It's it's a similar scoring setup to needing to make
a ton of birdies, just like last week, but it's
a totally different type of golfer. We're looking for good
off the te players accuracy wise. Distance doesn't have any
advantage here at all because it's still a positional golf course.
It's a shorter golf course, but it's also going to
force more layups, Like you can't just bomb it over
(08:52):
the trees here. There are trees, The fairways are inviting
and wide, but you're again going to see more elevation changes.
You're going to get a little more nuanced and strategy
involved versus last week where it just hit it down
there like one ninety six ball speed for Podkeeter on
a couple holes. That isn't going to matter this week.
You're gonna want to be in the fairway taking dead
(09:13):
aim at these pins that on big greens that run
pretty slow for tour average. It's gonna be easy for
the guys who are off in the fairway and taking
dead aim at getting close on approach, and it's less
of a putting contest this week. I think if you
have a good around the green game, you're going to
do well here. But like, just like last year, Davis
(09:34):
Thompson was so hot on approach, he found the fairway.
He's a shorter hitter himself, but he was so close
to the pin. He gave himself so many birdy opportunities,
and he was just so hot. He made everything he
looked at last year, And you're gonna have to to win.
Twenty eight under might not happen, but it will be
twenty to twenty six under par. I would venture an
(09:56):
educated guest on the finishing score being somewhere in that range,
especially when the weather's not really going to be a
factor unless you get heat exhaustion. It's been a hot
one in the Midwest, as you know, Pat, it's hot
here too, but we expect that.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, hot and muggy here in the Midwest. And yeah,
I think about that twenty eight under last year he
averaged a sixty four over those four rounds, pretty impreven.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
That's seven under part average for four days. That's smoking
hot it is.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
We will get to the John Deere Classic odds in
just a moment, but first I'm gonna let Bo tell
you about no vigue.
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Speaker 1 (11:43):
Now for the John Der Classic odds. All odds are
courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday, so some of these
odds may have changed by the time you consume this show.
Ben Griffin is the favorite of plus sixteen hundred, Jason
Daves plus twenty two hundred, Danny McCarthy, JT. Post In,
and See kim Our plus three thousand. We have a
big group at thirty five to one odds, Michael thorpe Bjornson,
(12:05):
Luke Clanton, Jake Knapp defending Champ, Davis Thompson, Sung JM,
Chris Kirk and Chris Godder up Aldrick pot Keater is
forty to one, as are Michael Kim, Kevin You, Torborne, Olison,
Sam Stevens, Bud Colly and Pearson Coody. It's an a
rather unusual group of favorites. But is there anyone you
(12:26):
have your eye on from this group?
Speaker 2 (12:28):
So I like Ben Griffin, I don't like him at
plus sixteen hundred. Sorry, Ben, You're great, You're playing great
golf this year, but I'm not betting on you to
win at those odds. It's just not gonna happen. If
he slips to twenty, which I don't expect. I probably
expect him to go even shorter from here. So I'll pass,
and I'm going to pass on a lot of these
guys because this is the tournament for youngsters. This is
(12:51):
the tournament Davis Thompson not young but inexperience on tour
last year lit it on fire. You notice he said
the names who came very close to winning last year,
very young guys Luke Clinton and Michael thorpe Jornson in
the rookie seasons last year nearly won this tournament. This
is for the youths. So I'm going to take and
go with somebody who you're probably not expecting. I'm gonna
(13:13):
go all the way to Denny McCarthy at plus twenty
eight hundred. He's the class of this field. Let's be honest,
Denny McCary. Denny McCarthy is the class of this field.
He's got the most complete game. He's not playing as
well as Ben Griffin, but he's having a very good season.
He's got quite a few top tens this season. He's
got the best short game in this field, and it
(13:34):
just comes down to can he make enough berdies I
think Denny McCarthy absolutely can make enough birdies at TPC
Deer Run, So that's where I'm starting my card plus
twenty eight hundred. That's the only guy in the group
of favorites that I'm interested in at their odds at all.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Great combination of course fit In recent forum McCarthy has
finished sixth, sixth, and seventh in his last three John Deeres.
He's also finished top fifteen in two of his last
four events, including the PGA Championship and the Travelers, which
had really good fields obviously, So yeah, I get why
Ben Griffin is the favorite. He's finished top fifteen and
(14:10):
six straight events, and that includes some big ones, the PGA,
the US Open, the Travelers which was a signature event,
so that had a really strong field. Griffin finished fifth
in his John dere Classic debut last year. But you
said it, bo, I mean, we're getting Xander Schoffley type
odds on Ben Griffin. I just can't go there. Jason
Day has played pretty well of late's. In his last
(14:31):
two events, he finished twenty third at the US Open,
fourth at the Travelers. Hasn't played the John der Classic
very often is in his career, but he played it
last year and finished twenty third. I just don't know
if the price is right. Gt Posten like normally one
of the best putters on tour bo, but this year,
(14:51):
not this year ninety third strokes game putting. He did
win here in twenty twenty two and followed that up
with a sixth place finish in twenty twenty three. But
I just I can't get on board with I'll Postino
here when he's not in very good form. What about
Chris Kirk? Bo seems to be getting hot. He made
it into the playoffs Sunday in Detroit, ended up tying
(15:12):
for second, and he was twelfth at the US Open.
Kirk has finished just inside the top twenty five in
each of his last two John Deere appearances.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Yeah, if I'm looking at Chris Kirk, I'd rather get
a guy who's won here before, Michael Kim, who's playing
great golf this season. I don't love him at forty
to one, but I could be talked into him at
forty to one if if we get closer to Locke.
And I'm not really going heavy this week at all,
I'm kind of going to sit on this bankroll until
the Scottish Open next week in the Open Championship the
(15:42):
week after this week. For betting is it's kind of
a crapshoot. Honestly, when Ben Griffin is the betting favorite,
then we know we have to be a little guarded
with her with our investment this week. But in this range,
if I'm looking at kind of that cusp of favorites
versus mid range, I'd rather go with Michael Kim because
(16:02):
he has good vibes here and Chris Kirk has the
worst vibes possible because he choked away a win just
a few days ago. It's just too much for me
to believe in that guy bouncing back that quickly at
a totally different golf course in a field that it
has a lot of young guns that are playing really well.
I think Michael Kim is the preferred option in this range,
(16:26):
although I'm not exactly running to the books to bet
on Michael Kim either.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
Yeah, Kim won here in twenty eighteen, but he has
missed the cut in his last four John Deere starts,
which is kind of unusual. Boy, I felt really bad
for Chris Kirk's dad, who looked just crestfallen after he.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
And Podgeter's dad were walking the course together during the playoff.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
That was tough. Well those young guys. Michael Thorpby Ornson
finished second here last year and is coming off the
fourth place finish in Detroit, and by the way, pretty
pretty good combination for him. He ranked sixth, then Strokes,
ganned off the tee and six then Greens in regulation.
So Peter Green, he does have the game to make
some noise here this week. I just I bet Luke
(17:10):
Clinton last week bo and he did finish second here
last year, but he has not been sharp of lates,
a miss cut, a thirty fourth and a sixtieth in
his last three events.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Yeah, he's he's your ultimate volatility pick because he's either
gonna push for the win like he did last year,
or he's gonna go up in a cloud of dust
like I had Clanton in my one and done last week.
And we'll cover that. But he was amazing for three
days and.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Close with that seventy seven seventy.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Seven, seventy seven on that golf course. That's five over
par when the average score is three under. Part that
was an atomic bad round and we can't afford that
for Luke Clinton. So if you're risk tolerant, which I
often am, I would bet Luke Clinton at thirty five
to one, but he was just seventy to one, or
(18:01):
he's just too short this week, I can't do it.
It just it's too much to watch that go up
and smoke like it did last week, where he's he's
either gonna make birdie or double bogie, and it's there's
not much in between with Luke Clanton at this stage
in his career.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, Clinton seventy seven at the Detroit Golf Club, on
par with Nick Dunlaps ninety at Augusta National earlier this year.
Let's look at some more odds. Alex Smalley, Lucas Glover
and Ryan Gerard are plus forty five hundred, Mark Hubbard,
Kurt Kittiyama, Ricky Foller and Keith Mitchell are plus five thousand,
Nico Etchivaria's plus fifty five hundred, Andrew Putnam and Steven
(18:37):
Jeger are plus six thousand. Kevin Roy, Vince Whaley, Victor Perez,
Jacob Bridgeman, Thriston, Lawrence, Emiliano Grio and Taylor Moore are
plus sixty five hundred and at plus seven thousand are yes, Prisvenson,
Tom Kim, Christian Bizudenhaut, and Rio Hussatsine. Where is the
betting value with this group?
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Bo can? I say not? In this group?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
You can?
Speaker 2 (19:02):
It's yeah, it's rough. I did see that norcl resident
Cameron Champ is in this field and he has dropped
into this range at seventy to one. I'd probably start
there because he looked really good last week, but that's
just because he has the upside of making all those birdies.
Tristan Lawrence, Yeah, he played well last week, but that's
(19:25):
that's because that's another bombing gouge course. I don't think
he's gonna do well in a tighter course with more
approach Leyden's results. I just don't see it with Lawrence,
even though he's had a decent season. Niko is a
guy that drives it well and puts it well, but
he's not a good approach player. This whole range is
a mess, so I'm gonna probably go with somebody else
(19:47):
down farther. Some of the younger guys that are a
little bit deeper. You could probably talk me into Rio.
He saw Sune at seventy to one. But this group
is a mess. Nobody really playing that great in this
whole mid range. Kevin Roy is okay, but sixty to
one for Kevin Roy seems like a ripoff.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
I'm going to have Thirst and Lawrence on my betting
card this week. Bo, Like, I hear what you're saying about.
Maybe you know the bombing gouge being more his speed,
but I don't know. I'm just getting the vibe. Maybe
that we lightning strikes twice, two large South Africans strike
twice in a two week span. At sixty five to one.
(20:27):
His last two events, he was twelfth at the US Open,
just pretty impressive, and then eighth at the Rocket Classic.
So I'm very interested. I think he's a value at
sixty five to one. I hear you on Nico, but
you know, it is an interesting combo. You might be
right about his approach game not being good enough, but
(20:49):
you know his lack of power isn't going to hurt him,
and he's an excellent putter.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
So, just a couple other guys from this group. Lucas
Glover's three top tens in his last five trips to
the John Deere, and he won here in twenty eighteen.
His last appearance this year was at the Travelers where
he finished ninth, So pretty good course fit and has
played decently of late. Mark Hubbard is sort of intriguing.
(21:15):
He's quietly played really well, four top fifteens and two
top tens at his last eight events. Hubbard finished thirteenth
at the John Deere in twenty twenty two to sixth
and twenty twenty three. And Andrew Putnam has finished top
ten in each of his last two events, the Canadian
Opened in the Rocket Classic and One More Bow. I'm
going to continue to tout Emiliano Grio as a value.
(21:38):
Top twenty five finishes in four of his last five
events and finished second at the John Deere Classic back
in twenty twenty two. But what about long shots? This
was the sweet spot for us last week in Detroit.
Who could give us a payday at longer odds this week?
Speaker 2 (21:54):
For me, it's the turnaround of the season. I think
is going to come down to Max Home. Maxhoma has
way too much talent to finish poorly here. He's down
at ninety to one in this field. For me, that
seems like it's a little bit of a misfit. I'll
throw in a little bit on Maxhome at ninety to
one with a top twenty kicker, and then we're back
(22:15):
to one hundred and fifty to one odds on Carl Phillips.
Everybody's gonna be off of him after last week's performance.
Last week wasn't a good fit for him. Last week
was Thorby Ornsen's fit Thorby Jornsen's the bomber with three
hundred and fifteen yard average. Phillips is less of a
long hitter and more of an accurate iron player and
a much better short game. I think that this is
(22:36):
going to be coming down to Carl Phillips is a
much better fit for this course than he was last week.
So I'll be back on him in one hundred and
fifty to one with definitely a top twenty investment because
he's got all the talent world as long as he
doesn't have to really worry about getting out driven like
he was last week. Was he was so wayward off
the tee last week that it just did. It didn't
(22:57):
come down to anything other than he didn't make a putts,
didn't make any birdies. It was a mess last week.
But I do believe in Carl Phillips. He won us
a lot of money earlier in the season, and as
long as the odds are in the triple digits, I'm
going to keep betting him. Another mention would be Jackson Coyven,
who he saw play really well last week. His game's
a little more balanced, so I do think that he's
(23:19):
going to be a name that we see on a
continuous basis, regardless of which course it is.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Let me throw a few more names at you. Matt
McCarty is interesting. At eighty to one, he ranked sixteenth
and strokes gained putting. He is a fairway finder off
the team. McCarty was fourth at the Canadian Open and
he just finished nineteenth at the Rocket Classic. I will
continue to tout Sammy Vallamachi. He ranks eighth and strokes
gained putting twenty seventh and strokes ganning approach. He finished
(23:46):
twelfth at the John Deere last year, and he's coming
off a nineteenth place finish in Detroit. How about Jackson
Suber At one hundred and ten to one, he just
finished sixth at the Rocket Classic. He was top twenty
at the Canadian Open. Suber has been very good with
his irons and his wedge play this year and finally
bowl two hundred and fifty to one. Harry Higgs, Harry.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
Big Rig, the big Rig.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Handsome Harry Higgs. He's done pretty well in events with
weaker fields this season. Higgs finished second last week twenty
fourth in Detroit respectable, and he was second to Ryan
Fox at the one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic, where he
lost in a three way playoff. So at two hundred
and fifty to one, yeah, I'll throw a little bit down.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
I want to give you one more just because this tournament.
I heard this guy's name a few times this year.
He showed up a couple of weeks ago. But Chrystobald
del Solar is one thousand to one this week, So yeah,
you should throw in a couple bucks on one thousand
and one. Cristobal del Solar playing well lately, Yes he is,
He's good.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
So who's in your batting card?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
On the card I have Denny McCarthy at twenty eight
to one, Mike Kim at forty to one, one Maxim
at ninety to one, Carl Phillips one hundred and fifty one.
In a little bit of Chrystobovil Salar.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
All right, I am only betting players to win this week,
like you. I'm gonna kind of keep my powder dry
this week, but I am gonna put some small bets
on seven different players. Danny McCarthy at thirty to one,
Michael thorbe Jornson at thirty five to one, Tristan Lawrence
at sixty five to one, Emiliano Grillo at sixty five
to one, Sammy Vallamachy at one hundred to one, Jackson
(25:27):
Suber at one hundred and ten to one, and Harry
Higgs at two fifty to one. All Right, now for
our one and done picks, I had Ben Griffin last week.
He tied for thirteenth and earned me one hundred and
seventy two thousand dollars. Bo had Young Luke Clanton as
we talked about, he had a pretty rough Sunday and
uh he finished in a tie for sixtieth and earned
(25:48):
bow twenty one thousand dollars. Bo is at about seven
point seven million for the season. I'm at about seven
point two million. You have the honor this week, bo
who are you taking?
Speaker 2 (25:58):
I'm going to take our guy at the top of
the board, Danny McCarthy all.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
Right, I think I am going to take I think
you were right about Chris Kirk not being the guy
I was thinking I was going to take him, but bo,
I'm going to take Michael Thorbjornson. All right, all right,
that is going to do it. For this week's Betting
PROSPGA podcast. Please come join us again next week when
(26:23):
we will be previewing the Genesis Scottish Open. Until then,
so long every one.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,
joined as always by Beau mcbrear. We're going to give
you a full betting preview of the John Deere Classic.
We'll analyze the course, the odds, our favorite bets, and
we'll make our one and done picks at the end
of the show. But let's start with a very quick
recap of the Rocket Classic. Youth is served in Detroit,
(00:21):
and so is Beau mcbrear's wallet. Twenty year old Aldrich Pottgeeter,
the big hitting South African, wins his first PGA tournaments.
He came oh so close to winning the Mexico Open
back in February, but was edged out by Brian Campbell.
There would be no denying pot Geter this time. But
this year's Rocket Classic was quite the Battle Royal. There
(00:44):
were a lot of players in contention throughout the weekend.
At one point on Saturday afternoon, there were thirty two
players within two shots of the league. And yeah, there
were a lot of guys still in the hunt as
of Sunday, including a lot of players BO and I
talked about as compelling long shit on last week's show.
Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp, and of course pot Geter. So
(01:06):
Potkeeter got off to a slow start on Sunday. After
taking a small lead into the final round, he was
won over par after six holes. That led a bounch
of other players into contention thorb Bijornsen, Knapp, Chris Kirk,
Max Grazerman and others. But Potkeeter birdie the seventh and
eighth holes to jump start his final round. Then he
(01:27):
birdied thirteen and fourteen. He bogied the par three fifteenth,
but then made a key birdie on the par five
seventeenth to get him to twenty two under par that
got him into a three way playoff with Max Grazerman
and Chris Kirk. All three players parted the first playoff hall,
pot Keeter and Grazerman part the second playoff hall, but
Kirk missed a four foot par putt and was eliminated.
(01:48):
Pot Keeter and Grazerman both parted the third playoff hole
and then bertie the par five sixteenth. All finally on
the fifth playoff hole, the par three fifteenth, Grazerman could
not convert a birdie try from thirty fourth feet and
Potkeeter rolled in in eighteen footer to get the victory.
Hats off to you. Bow. On last week's show, you
talked about Potkeeter as a compelling long shot because of
(02:09):
how well his power would play at the Detroit Golf Club.
I wasn't convinced. After almost winning the Mexico Open, Podgeter
missed the cut in seven of his next eight events,
but he broke the cold streak with a sixth place
finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge in late May. He
hadn't played in another tournament since then. I know you
sold at least one of our viewers on pot Geter bow.
(02:32):
He sent us a screen shot of a nice four
figure win. Congratulations to Ryan. So give me your thoughts
on the Rocket Classic bow and remind me what number
did you get on pot Geter. Our buddy Ryan got
him at one hundred and ten to one.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah. I ended up getting him on Wednesday, along with
Max Grazerman, who was too short. When we recorded the
show last week, I had him on my short list
of people to watch as he opened at thirty five
to one. That was too short for my liking. Razerman
at forty five to one, and I got pot Keeter
at one hundred and twenty to one. So I was
celebrating as soon as Chris Kirk got knocked out and
(03:08):
jubilant when he missed the birdie putt that because Chris
Kirk should have won that playoff in the first hole,
the first playoff hole, he had the short birdie putt
and missed it on the high on the high side,
it didn't break at all. He played, he played outside
the hole and missed it, and then he got knocked
out with a three putt, and I was like, Okay,
no matter what, I got this in the bag. But
(03:29):
now I'm kind of rooting for the younger South African
because he's gonna win me more money. I'd already cash
top five bets with Grazerman as well as Thorbjornsen. So
it was a very good week. It was our second
win this year of seventy to one or better. Things
are good. Things are good. The bank rolls happy that
I had a couple more roll in that got him
(03:51):
at one hundred to one. One guy kind of hedged
his bets that didn't pan out early on the tournament
and got him at eight to one. Just because I
was kind of pushing it a little harder once. Once
he shot that early sixty one or sixty two I
think he shot on the first day, it was it
was a full steam ahead for Aldrich pot Geter. And
(04:13):
really it was another bombing goage week at the Rocket Classic,
just as I predicted. It was very similar to the
Mexico Open at Vedanta, because that is there's no defense
to the course, there's no penalty for being wayward. And
although pot Geter is definitely going to struggle on more
traditional golf courses that have danger off the tee or
(04:35):
danger with how poor his wedge play was, his chipping
was a nightmare. If pot Geter didn't win that tournament,
we could point right to his short game as the culprit.
But thankfully he had enough, he made enough putts to
pull it together on that fifth playoff hole and finish
the job for us. That was nice, and it was
(04:56):
just it was good to It was good to be right.
We all love being right, but it's really good to
be right on somebody who There was a handful of
people that were on him as a long shot because
of the power element, but again we hadn't seen him
in over a month. He had completely stopped playing in tournaments.
He got all new clubs, He redid his entire game
(05:17):
over that last month since the Charles Schwab so that
him retooling and coming to a place that was as
friendly to his style of play as Detroit. That was
all I needed to see.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Yeah, you have to pick the right venue for pot Caeter.
For sure. You knew exactly when to get back on
the Aldrich Pott Keeter Express. I was not ready to
go with you, but overall, bow pretty good month of
June for the podcast. I think March was our golden
month in twenty twenty four. I think June has been
(05:50):
the one this year.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
If this guy finds a short game, lookout, Let's.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
See if we can keep the heat turned up going
into July. We'll get to the John dere Classic in
just a moment. Right after bau McBriar tells you about
the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
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iOS and Android. With Sportsbooks Sync, you can automatically check
your bets across all major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily
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own custom betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities.
(06:29):
Get your seven day free trial of Betting Pros Premium
by downloading the app at bettingpros dot com slash apps
using code juice and activating your trial on the upgrade screen.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
The John Deer Classic returns to TPC Deer Run in
western Illinois near the Illinois Iowa border. TPC Deer Run
is a par seventy one that measures seven eighty nine yards.
Course was designed by former tour player da Wybring. As
with last week's Rocket Classic, the John Deere Classic is
going to be a birdie fast, go low or fall behind,
(07:04):
and we do not have a star studded field for
this event. The big names are sitting this one out
the fair way is it TPC Deer Runner nice and wide,
The greens are large and those greens are bent grass
by the way, and there's some elevation changes at TPC
Deer Run, so players will occasionally be faced with uneven lies,
but this is one of the easier courses the PGA
(07:26):
Tour Pros will play all year, and unlike last week,
big hitters don't really have a huge advantage. After all,
Zack Johnson used to dominate this event and he's always
been one of the shortest staterers on tour. Steve Stricker
owned this event for quite a while, he wasn't a
big hitter. Davis Thompson is the defending John Deere champion.
Last year he just completely blitz the field, finishing twenty
(07:47):
eight under par, four shots better than Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke
Clanton and ct PAN. Sepstraca won here in twenty twenty three,
he was minus twenty one. JT post in one. In
twenty twenty two he was also minus twenty one, and
Lucas Glover won. In twenty twenty one, heaus minus nineteen.
It's going to be hot in Silvis, Illinois for this
(08:09):
event his in the low nineties and oper eighties. It
could get a little breezy at times, especially on Friday
and Saturday with wins in the ten to twenty mile
an hour range, when should be a little lighter on
Thursday and Sunday more than five to ten mile per
hour range. Bow your thoughts on TPC Deer Run and
what it's going to take to win the John Dear Classic.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
It's it's a similar scoring setup to needing to make
a ton of birdies, just like last week, but it's
a totally different type of golfer. We're looking for good
off the te players accuracy wise. Distance doesn't have any
advantage here at all because it's still a positional golf course.
It's a shorter golf course, but it's also going to
force more layups, Like you can't just bomb it over
(08:52):
the trees here. There are trees, The fairways are inviting
and wide, but you're again going to see more elevation changes.
You're going to get a little more nuanced and strategy
involved versus last week where it just hit it down
there like one ninety six ball speed for Podkeeter on
a couple holes. That isn't going to matter this week.
You're gonna want to be in the fairway taking dead
(09:13):
aim at these pins that on big greens that run
pretty slow for tour average. It's gonna be easy for
the guys who are off in the fairway and taking
dead aim at getting close on approach, and it's less
of a putting contest this week. I think if you
have a good around the green game, you're going to
do well here. But like, just like last year, Davis
(09:34):
Thompson was so hot on approach, he found the fairway.
He's a shorter hitter himself, but he was so close
to the pin. He gave himself so many birdy opportunities,
and he was just so hot. He made everything he
looked at last year, And you're gonna have to to win.
Twenty eight under might not happen, but it will be
twenty to twenty six under par. I would venture an
(09:56):
educated guest on the finishing score being somewhere in that range,
especially when the weather's not really going to be a
factor unless you get heat exhaustion. It's been a hot
one in the Midwest, as you know, Pat, it's hot
here too, but we expect that.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, hot and muggy here in the Midwest. And yeah,
I think about that twenty eight under last year he
averaged a sixty four over those four rounds, pretty impreven.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
That's seven under part average for four days. That's smoking
hot it is.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
We will get to the John Deere Classic odds in
just a moment, but first I'm gonna let Bo tell
you about no vigue.
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screenshots that he came really close on. It's a If
(11:39):
you have questions, ask Mike mayor, he's very happy to help.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Now for the John Der Classic odds. All odds are
courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday, so some of these
odds may have changed by the time you consume this show.
Ben Griffin is the favorite of plus sixteen hundred, Jason
Daves plus twenty two hundred, Danny McCarthy, JT. Post In,
and See kim Our plus three thousand. We have a
big group at thirty five to one odds, Michael thorpe Bjornson,
(12:05):
Luke Clanton, Jake Knapp defending Champ, Davis Thompson, Sung JM,
Chris Kirk and Chris Godder up Aldrick pot Keater is
forty to one, as are Michael Kim, Kevin You, Torborne, Olison,
Sam Stevens, Bud Colly and Pearson Coody. It's an a
rather unusual group of favorites. But is there anyone you
(12:26):
have your eye on from this group?
Speaker 2 (12:28):
So I like Ben Griffin, I don't like him at
plus sixteen hundred. Sorry, Ben, You're great, You're playing great
golf this year, but I'm not betting on you to
win at those odds. It's just not gonna happen. If
he slips to twenty, which I don't expect. I probably
expect him to go even shorter from here. So I'll pass,
and I'm going to pass on a lot of these
guys because this is the tournament for youngsters. This is
(12:51):
the tournament Davis Thompson not young but inexperience on tour
last year lit it on fire. You notice he said
the names who came very close to winning last year,
very young guys Luke Clinton and Michael thorpe Jornson in
the rookie seasons last year nearly won this tournament. This
is for the youths. So I'm going to take and
go with somebody who you're probably not expecting. I'm gonna
(13:13):
go all the way to Denny McCarthy at plus twenty
eight hundred. He's the class of this field. Let's be honest,
Denny McCary. Denny McCarthy is the class of this field.
He's got the most complete game. He's not playing as
well as Ben Griffin, but he's having a very good season.
He's got quite a few top tens this season. He's
got the best short game in this field, and it
(13:34):
just comes down to can he make enough berdies I
think Denny McCarthy absolutely can make enough birdies at TPC
Deer Run, So that's where I'm starting my card plus
twenty eight hundred. That's the only guy in the group
of favorites that I'm interested in at their odds at all.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Great combination of course fit In recent forum McCarthy has
finished sixth, sixth, and seventh in his last three John Deeres.
He's also finished top fifteen in two of his last
four events, including the PGA Championship and the Travelers, which
had really good fields obviously, So yeah, I get why
Ben Griffin is the favorite. He's finished top fifteen and
(14:10):
six straight events, and that includes some big ones, the PGA,
the US Open, the Travelers which was a signature event,
so that had a really strong field. Griffin finished fifth
in his John dere Classic debut last year. But you
said it, bo, I mean, we're getting Xander Schoffley type
odds on Ben Griffin. I just can't go there. Jason
Day has played pretty well of late's. In his last
(14:31):
two events, he finished twenty third at the US Open,
fourth at the Travelers. Hasn't played the John der Classic
very often is in his career, but he played it
last year and finished twenty third. I just don't know
if the price is right. Gt Posten like normally one
of the best putters on tour bo, but this year,
(14:51):
not this year ninety third strokes game putting. He did
win here in twenty twenty two and followed that up
with a sixth place finish in twenty twenty three. But
I just I can't get on board with I'll Postino
here when he's not in very good form. What about
Chris Kirk? Bo seems to be getting hot. He made
it into the playoffs Sunday in Detroit, ended up tying
(15:12):
for second, and he was twelfth at the US Open.
Kirk has finished just inside the top twenty five in
each of his last two John Deere appearances.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Yeah, if I'm looking at Chris Kirk, I'd rather get
a guy who's won here before, Michael Kim, who's playing
great golf this season. I don't love him at forty
to one, but I could be talked into him at
forty to one if if we get closer to Locke.
And I'm not really going heavy this week at all,
I'm kind of going to sit on this bankroll until
the Scottish Open next week in the Open Championship the
(15:42):
week after this week. For betting is it's kind of
a crapshoot. Honestly, when Ben Griffin is the betting favorite,
then we know we have to be a little guarded
with her with our investment this week. But in this range,
if I'm looking at kind of that cusp of favorites
versus mid range, I'd rather go with Michael Kim because
(16:02):
he has good vibes here and Chris Kirk has the
worst vibes possible because he choked away a win just
a few days ago. It's just too much for me
to believe in that guy bouncing back that quickly at
a totally different golf course in a field that it
has a lot of young guns that are playing really well.
I think Michael Kim is the preferred option in this range,
(16:26):
although I'm not exactly running to the books to bet
on Michael Kim either.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
Yeah, Kim won here in twenty eighteen, but he has
missed the cut in his last four John Deere starts,
which is kind of unusual. Boy, I felt really bad
for Chris Kirk's dad, who looked just crestfallen after he.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
And Podgeter's dad were walking the course together during the playoff.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
That was tough. Well those young guys. Michael Thorpby Ornson
finished second here last year and is coming off the
fourth place finish in Detroit, and by the way, pretty
pretty good combination for him. He ranked sixth, then Strokes,
ganned off the tee and six then Greens in regulation.
So Peter Green, he does have the game to make
some noise here this week. I just I bet Luke
(17:10):
Clinton last week bo and he did finish second here
last year, but he has not been sharp of lates,
a miss cut, a thirty fourth and a sixtieth in
his last three events.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
Yeah, he's he's your ultimate volatility pick because he's either
gonna push for the win like he did last year,
or he's gonna go up in a cloud of dust
like I had Clanton in my one and done last week.
And we'll cover that. But he was amazing for three
days and.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Close with that seventy seven seventy.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Seven, seventy seven on that golf course. That's five over
par when the average score is three under. Part that
was an atomic bad round and we can't afford that
for Luke Clinton. So if you're risk tolerant, which I
often am, I would bet Luke Clinton at thirty five
to one, but he was just seventy to one, or
(18:01):
he's just too short this week, I can't do it.
It just it's too much to watch that go up
and smoke like it did last week, where he's he's
either gonna make birdie or double bogie, and it's there's
not much in between with Luke Clanton at this stage
in his career.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, Clinton seventy seven at the Detroit Golf Club, on
par with Nick Dunlaps ninety at Augusta National earlier this year.
Let's look at some more odds. Alex Smalley, Lucas Glover
and Ryan Gerard are plus forty five hundred, Mark Hubbard,
Kurt Kittiyama, Ricky Foller and Keith Mitchell are plus five thousand,
Nico Etchivaria's plus fifty five hundred, Andrew Putnam and Steven
(18:37):
Jeger are plus six thousand. Kevin Roy, Vince Whaley, Victor Perez,
Jacob Bridgeman, Thriston, Lawrence, Emiliano Grio and Taylor Moore are
plus sixty five hundred and at plus seven thousand are yes, Prisvenson,
Tom Kim, Christian Bizudenhaut, and Rio Hussatsine. Where is the
betting value with this group?
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Bo can? I say not? In this group?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
You can?
Speaker 2 (19:02):
It's yeah, it's rough. I did see that norcl resident
Cameron Champ is in this field and he has dropped
into this range at seventy to one. I'd probably start
there because he looked really good last week, but that's
just because he has the upside of making all those birdies.
Tristan Lawrence, Yeah, he played well last week, but that's
(19:25):
that's because that's another bombing gouge course. I don't think
he's gonna do well in a tighter course with more
approach Leyden's results. I just don't see it with Lawrence,
even though he's had a decent season. Niko is a
guy that drives it well and puts it well, but
he's not a good approach player. This whole range is
a mess, so I'm gonna probably go with somebody else
(19:47):
down farther. Some of the younger guys that are a
little bit deeper. You could probably talk me into Rio.
He saw Sune at seventy to one. But this group
is a mess. Nobody really playing that great in this
whole mid range. Kevin Roy is okay, but sixty to
one for Kevin Roy seems like a ripoff.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
I'm going to have Thirst and Lawrence on my betting
card this week. Bo, Like, I hear what you're saying about.
Maybe you know the bombing gouge being more his speed,
but I don't know. I'm just getting the vibe. Maybe
that we lightning strikes twice, two large South Africans strike
twice in a two week span. At sixty five to one.
(20:27):
His last two events, he was twelfth at the US Open,
just pretty impressive, and then eighth at the Rocket Classic.
So I'm very interested. I think he's a value at
sixty five to one. I hear you on Nico, but
you know, it is an interesting combo. You might be
right about his approach game not being good enough, but
(20:49):
you know his lack of power isn't going to hurt him,
and he's an excellent putter.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
So, just a couple other guys from this group. Lucas
Glover's three top tens in his last five trips to
the John Deere, and he won here in twenty eighteen.
His last appearance this year was at the Travelers where
he finished ninth, So pretty good course fit and has
played decently of late. Mark Hubbard is sort of intriguing.
(21:15):
He's quietly played really well, four top fifteens and two
top tens at his last eight events. Hubbard finished thirteenth
at the John Deere in twenty twenty two to sixth
and twenty twenty three. And Andrew Putnam has finished top
ten in each of his last two events, the Canadian
Opened in the Rocket Classic and One More Bow. I'm
going to continue to tout Emiliano Grio as a value.
(21:38):
Top twenty five finishes in four of his last five
events and finished second at the John Deere Classic back
in twenty twenty two. But what about long shots? This
was the sweet spot for us last week in Detroit.
Who could give us a payday at longer odds this week?
Speaker 2 (21:54):
For me, it's the turnaround of the season. I think
is going to come down to Max Home. Maxhoma has
way too much talent to finish poorly here. He's down
at ninety to one in this field. For me, that
seems like it's a little bit of a misfit. I'll
throw in a little bit on Maxhome at ninety to
one with a top twenty kicker, and then we're back
(22:15):
to one hundred and fifty to one odds on Carl Phillips.
Everybody's gonna be off of him after last week's performance.
Last week wasn't a good fit for him. Last week
was Thorby Ornsen's fit Thorby Jornsen's the bomber with three
hundred and fifteen yard average. Phillips is less of a
long hitter and more of an accurate iron player and
a much better short game. I think that this is
(22:36):
going to be coming down to Carl Phillips is a
much better fit for this course than he was last week.
So I'll be back on him in one hundred and
fifty to one with definitely a top twenty investment because
he's got all the talent world as long as he
doesn't have to really worry about getting out driven like
he was last week. Was he was so wayward off
the tee last week that it just did. It didn't
(22:57):
come down to anything other than he didn't make a putts,
didn't make any birdies. It was a mess last week.
But I do believe in Carl Phillips. He won us
a lot of money earlier in the season, and as
long as the odds are in the triple digits, I'm
going to keep betting him. Another mention would be Jackson Coyven,
who he saw play really well last week. His game's
a little more balanced, so I do think that he's
(23:19):
going to be a name that we see on a
continuous basis, regardless of which course it is.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Let me throw a few more names at you. Matt
McCarty is interesting. At eighty to one, he ranked sixteenth
and strokes gained putting. He is a fairway finder off
the team. McCarty was fourth at the Canadian Open and
he just finished nineteenth at the Rocket Classic. I will
continue to tout Sammy Vallamachi. He ranks eighth and strokes
gained putting twenty seventh and strokes ganning approach. He finished
(23:46):
twelfth at the John Deere last year, and he's coming
off a nineteenth place finish in Detroit. How about Jackson
Suber At one hundred and ten to one, he just
finished sixth at the Rocket Classic. He was top twenty
at the Canadian Open. Suber has been very good with
his irons and his wedge play this year and finally
bowl two hundred and fifty to one. Harry Higgs, Harry.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
Big Rig, the big Rig.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Handsome Harry Higgs. He's done pretty well in events with
weaker fields this season. Higgs finished second last week twenty
fourth in Detroit respectable, and he was second to Ryan
Fox at the one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic, where he
lost in a three way playoff. So at two hundred
and fifty to one, yeah, I'll throw a little bit down.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
I want to give you one more just because this tournament.
I heard this guy's name a few times this year.
He showed up a couple of weeks ago. But Chrystobald
del Solar is one thousand to one this week, So yeah,
you should throw in a couple bucks on one thousand
and one. Cristobal del Solar playing well lately, Yes he is,
He's good.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
So who's in your batting card?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
On the card I have Denny McCarthy at twenty eight
to one, Mike Kim at forty to one, one Maxim
at ninety to one, Carl Phillips one hundred and fifty one.
In a little bit of Chrystobovil Salar.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
All right, I am only betting players to win this week,
like you. I'm gonna kind of keep my powder dry
this week, but I am gonna put some small bets
on seven different players. Danny McCarthy at thirty to one,
Michael thorbe Jornson at thirty five to one, Tristan Lawrence
at sixty five to one, Emiliano Grillo at sixty five
to one, Sammy Vallamachy at one hundred to one, Jackson
(25:27):
Suber at one hundred and ten to one, and Harry
Higgs at two fifty to one. All Right, now for
our one and done picks, I had Ben Griffin last week.
He tied for thirteenth and earned me one hundred and
seventy two thousand dollars. Bo had Young Luke Clanton as
we talked about, he had a pretty rough Sunday and
uh he finished in a tie for sixtieth and earned
(25:48):
bow twenty one thousand dollars. Bo is at about seven
point seven million for the season. I'm at about seven
point two million. You have the honor this week, bo
who are you taking?
Speaker 2 (25:58):
I'm going to take our guy at the top of
the board, Danny McCarthy all.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
Right, I think I am going to take I think
you were right about Chris Kirk not being the guy
I was thinking I was going to take him, but bo,
I'm going to take Michael Thorbjornson. All right, all right,
that is going to do it. For this week's Betting
PROSPGA podcast. Please come join us again next week when
(26:23):
we will be previewing the Genesis Scottish Open. Until then,
so long every one.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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