July 15, 2025 • 35 mins
Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer recap The Scottish Open and ISCO Championship before exploring the top betting strategies for The Open Championship!
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections. Plus, we reveal our one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
The Scottish Open and ISCO Championship Recap - 0:00:21
BettingPros App - 0:06:15
The Open Championship Preview - 0:06:49
Novig App - 0:14:52
The Favorites - 0:15:53
Mid-Range Options - 0:24:56
The Long Shots - 0:28:41
Betting Cards - 0:31:39
The Barracuda Championship - 0:32:32
One-and-Done Picks - 0:34:01
Outro - 0:34:46
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Beau mcbreer. It's Open Championship week. The final
name of the twenty twenty five golf season is upon
us and it promises to be a good one. We're
excited to preview it and let you know who we're
betting on this week and why before we get into
our Open Championship betting preview. A very quick recap of
(00:22):
last week Scottish Open. Chris got her Up wins the
Scottish Open, finishing fifteen under par. Quite the unexpected victory
for got her Up, his second on the PGA Tour,
but a far more impressive win than his first, which
was at last year's.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Myrtle Beach Classic.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Got her Up got himself in position to contend with
a sixty one on Friday. He went into the final
round tied for the lead with Rory McElroy. Certainly the
odds maker saw it as a David versus Goliath matchup
entering Sunday's round. McElroy's odds to win before the final
round minus one twenty got her up to odds plus
four hundred, but got her up Rose to the occasion.
(01:00):
Closed with the sixty six and you know when he
bogied the opening hole. Sunday it seemed like he might
go away, but got her up made six birdies in
the final round. He burdied all three of the par fives.
Rory just couldn't get it going. He needed some birdies
down the stretch and couldn't find them. He made no
birdies and nine pars on the back nine got her up.
Had quietly been playing some pretty solid golf this season,
(01:22):
although there was a little indication he was ready to
win a tournament by you know, dispatching one of the
best players in the world. Got nine top twenty five
finishes going into the Scottish Open, but not a single
top ten. He was ranked one hundred and fifty eighth
in the world going into the Scottish Open. He's now
up to forty ninth. Good to see Rory contend. Even
(01:45):
if he couldn't seal the deal, he appears ready for
the Open Championship. Finishing in a tie per second with
Rory was Englishman Marco Penge, who highlighted on the show
last week as a long shot. Word for your attention,
Matt Fitzpatrick was also in the hunt but finished three
shots back along with Nikolai Hoyguard. And it's worth noting
that Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schafflin, Ludwig Oberg all finished nine
(02:08):
hunderd par tying for eighth play. It's good to see
the big guns playing reasonably well heading into the Open.
There was another PGA Tour event this week. This past
week won on American soil. William Mao won the ISCO
Championship in Kentucky, and he did it in pretty remarkable fashion.
He was seven shots off the lead going into the
(02:29):
final round, but Mao shot a blistering sixty one on
Sunday at Hurstbourne Country Club, which had been playing really
tough all week. Then Mao sat in the clubhouse with
his lead and waited. Only Paul Peterson came close to
catching Mao. Peterson needed a birdie on one of his
last two holes to force a playoff, couldn't get one,
and mal walked away with this first PGA Tour win
(02:52):
and Bo McBriar had a nice little DFS score with
his ISCO tournament, finishing second in a DraftKings fair well done, bow.
Give me your thoughts on that and on the Scottish Open.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
The Scottish was great. Actually, Chris Gotterrup was my last
bet of the entire week, and it was only because
on my other show, we do a hat pick at
the very end of the show where we draw a
number out of the hat and whatever number that is,
we go down to our model list and we picked
which player is at that number. The first time ever
(03:24):
it was a top five number, so I went down
to number four thinking it was gonna be somebody like
Xander and Connor's other pick was Harry Hall. Well, Harry
Hall was my number three. So I looked down at
number four on my model and who sat there but
Chris Gottrup. And I didn't even know what his odds were,
and I somehow had just kind of put a star
next to his name for DFS. That's what I was
(03:47):
really looking for with Chris Gottrup. He was in my
DFS lineup for the Scottish and I ended up throwing
eighty to one bet on him on Wednesday, just as
a yolo hat pick number four in my model Why not?
And so I did win on Chris got her up.
And I also had two names that I wrote down
to bet on for the ISCO in Louisville, and one
(04:08):
of them was William Mao. So and so I had
Mao in my DFS lineup and sixty five to one
bet and I had got Her up at eighty to
one and he was in my Scottish lineup which which
also profited.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
So it's been a.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Really hot four week stretch for me. I'm looking to
run right into the Open Championship, but it's so far.
The impressive part about got Her Up was that his
ball striking has always been good, but what has held
him back was his short game. His putting, namely, his
short game has been better all those top twenty five finishes.
He actually had five consecutive top five finishes or top
(04:46):
twenty five finishes leading into the Scottish out of the
nine and no top tens. They were like, oh, he's
the next Tommy Fleetwood, and so it was.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
It was.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
It was interesting because now he has two more PGA
Tour victories than Tommy Fleetwood at this stage in his career. Yeah,
got her Up still in his early twenties. He's he
was a very quick graduate of the corn Ferry Tour.
One on his rookie season last year at the Myrtle
Beach Classic. There's a lot more to come, especially if
this guy finds a little bit more of a consistent
(05:19):
putting stroke.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
But we've seen that his.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
Ball striking carries over to multiple types of venues. Now
winning a birdie Fest and at the Scottish where it
was baked out and hot and it was dry, and
you could tell that even Rory, with his distance and
apex height, he was having trouble holding those greens. They
were really fast and firm, and got Her Up just
seemed to be dialed in with his distance control off
(05:44):
the fairway. And of course he's out there launching the
ball three hundred and fifty yards just like Rory. So
the David versus Goliath narrative was pretty quickly snuffed out
because Gottterrup's got game.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, and maybe it doesn't fit because got Her Up
is a big strike apping lad.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
He was the big boy. He looked more like a
Goliathan of David.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
He's a big guy from Jersey.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yes he is, with a little bit of a lacrosse background.
I understand too. Now we will get to the Open
Championship preview in just a moment. Right after Bo tells
you about the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
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Speaker 1 (06:50):
Let's start digging into the Open Championship and we'll start
by talking about the venue, royal Port Rush in County Antrim,
Northern Ireland. The course is located on the northern tip
of Northern Ireland, right along the North Atlantic. Weather is
going to be a huge factor this week. It certainly
was in twenty nineteen when we got a very wet,
saggy Open Championship at royal Port Rush. That was when
(07:12):
Irishman Shane Lowry hoisted the Claret jug. Lowry just smoked
the rest of the field that week. He was fifteen
under par. Tommy Fleetwood was second at nine under par.
Tony fied Out Brooks Kepkin, Lee Westwood rounded out the
top five. Westwood is back in the field this week
by the way he earned his way in through qualifying.
Only twenty nine players finished under par in twenty nineteen
(07:35):
at Royal Port Rush. It's a par seventy one that
we'll play two seven, three hundred and eighty one yards.
Not brutally long, but the wind is going to make
some holes play quite long. This is a Lynx course,
but it's links golf with a twist. On most of
the courses in the Open Championship Roder, you can play
bump and run shots into a lot of the greens
and let the contours of the course feed the ball
(07:56):
toward the hole. Royal Port Rush has a bunch of
elevated so players are going to have to come in
high on a lot of their approach shots, and obviously
hitting high shots into a stiff winds that's a challenge.
A lot of the Open Championship courses have huge greens
and tons of bunkers, which helps promote that bump and
run play. Royal Port Rush smaller greens, fewer bunkers. A
(08:19):
lot of these fescue based greens are guarded by grassy mounds,
and while there aren't a lot of bunkers, the ones
awaiting players are rather punishing. They're speaking of speaking of
punishing trouble awaits errant drives. On this course, gorse bushes
will catch a lot of bad drives. There's tall fescue
rough and there are number of spots where players can
(08:40):
go out of bounds. Adding to the difficulty is the wind.
Most of the holes face either southwest or northeast. The
winds come to tend to come from the north or northwest,
so players are often going to have to deal with
crosswinds off the tee. As with most open courses, royal
Port Rushes all sorts of bumps and hollows in the
fair way. Players are going to hit a lot of
shots off uneven lies and it's imperative that you.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Get off to a good start. At Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
Everyone goes off the first te No one starts at
number ten. There's no need to split the tea times
as you see in the US opener PGA. Since the
UK gets so many hours of sunlight this time of year,
now the first five.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
On links courses, tenth holes way off in the distance.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
It's not back at the clubhouse.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Good point generally, although this is not a classic nine
holes out, nine holes back type of layout. This one
could have arcs around a little bit, but the first
five holes are pretty easy relative to the rest of
the course. Holds two, three, and five offer some of
the best birdy opportunities anywhere at royal Port Rush. Shane
Lowry played the first five holes at nine under par
(09:46):
winn he won here in twenty nineteen. The last five holes,
on the other hand, are pretty brutal. Play the closing
five holes at even par and you should be very pleased.
The toughest hole on the closing stretch is the par
three sixteen, known as Calamity Corner. It's two hundred and
thirty six yards and there's a steep drop off up
the right side of the hole. If you miss rights,
(10:09):
saving par becomes almost impossible.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, so that's all dead.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Yeah, you're shooting just dead uphill, blindly into the green,
hard to get it close. The green and regulation percentage
on the sixteenth hole in twenty nineteen under fifty percent
forty forty one, so not even close to fifty percent.
Another hole worth highlighting is the par five seventh. This
is one of the newer holes at royal Port Rush.
(10:35):
They added a few ahead of the twenty nineteen Open.
Number seven is a six hundred and seventy yard par five.
There's an elevated t shot that requires players to navigate
a pair of fairway bunkers on either side. You can
reach this hole into with a good drive and a
cooperative wind, but this is one of the only holes
at Royal Port Rush that usually plays into the wind,
(10:56):
and the layup area is really small and it includes
a nasty bunker the players are going to have to
try to avoid. So Xander Schoffley is the defending Championship
Golfer of the Year. He won at Royal Troon last year.
Let's talk about the weather forecast for the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
There's rain in.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
The forecast for all four rounds, hopefully not a pouring
rain and a persistent rain. With luck, we'll have some
more dry periods than we had in twenty nineteen. Wind
is not expected to be too gusty ten to fifteen
miles per hour on Thursday and Sunday five to ten
on Friday and Saturday. That would make it very playable,
(11:34):
but forecasting the conditions along the Northern Ireland coast is
probably a fool's errand brief squalls are always a possibility.
Seems as if driving accuracy and scrambling are going to
be especially important this week. Bo, there's a lot to unpack.
What say you about Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
I just love how it's not a traditional links but
it's got enough of those elements to make it a
real fun taste of Irish golf. Like Northern Ireland. Apparently
my ancestors came from that county Intrim in Northern Ireland
from by way of Scotland when they immigrated to America,
so the Sacred Ground is also a Northern Ireland It's
(12:14):
it's it's pretty cool because this course is tough in
a different way that that road of courses are tough.
Like you said, usually you're dealing with really fast runouts
on the fairways and then the bump. The bumpy greens
are gigantic, even double greens on some of the road
to courses. This course has small greens. It's more it's
more like Pebble Beach with gorse bushes than it is
(12:35):
like St. Andrews, for example. It's like the opposite of
Saint Andrews, where you have to be off the t accurate,
but you also have to be very precise with your irons,
especially in that one fifty to two hundred range. This
is it's going to be really challenging if those squalls
do pop up, which is very possible. He said, it's
a fool's errand I don't think they employ any meteorologists
(12:56):
in in that in that neck of the woods because
it's just pointless, like your forecast might change three times
per hour, and it's just you can say, oh yeah,
on Thursday, it's gonna be ten to fifteen on hour
gusts and went in rain here and there.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
But you never you just never know.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
A lot like the Scottish last week where he had
dry weather but it was you just never know when
it's those squalls are gonna pop up, especially along the
North Atlantic there. This is gonna be fun because it's
gonna challenge the whole bag, not just scrambling. It's gonna
be it's gonna be off the t, it's gonna be approach,
it's gonna be of course, the short game around the greens.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
It's also gonna.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Be more of your bogey avoidance than your three pet avoidance.
Like last week in a normal road of course, you
really have to focus on three putt avoidance because the
greens are massive and your lag putting really matters here.
It's gonna be okay, how did you hit the fairway
A and B? Were you in position to actually make
a go at some of these pin placements on these
(13:54):
smaller greens. And if it doesn't rain very much, these light,
little greens are still gonna a lot of bounce to them.
They're not going to have a lot of receptiveness, and
they're still gonna put slow and bumpy because they're fescue.
So it's still gonna be a challenge a little bit
of carnage, especially if that wind picks up a little
bit more than it's forecasted. I think the rain is
(14:14):
pretty much to be expected. You're gonna get moisture this
week in Northern Ireland. It's just that's what happens in
the summertime. I just I love this golf course. It's
gorgeous on TV. It's absolutely gorgeous. It's one of the
places i'd really much like to visit. Maybe I can
scrounge up some extra mcbrayers across the pond and meet them.
(14:34):
But for this week, I'll be watching on TV and
it'll be exciting to see who comes out on top
as champion golf for the year. Will it be a
favorite or will it be somebody out of left field?
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, let's get into some of the conversation about the players.
We will break down the Open Championship odds in just
a moment, but first.
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Speaker 1 (15:52):
Let's run through some of the odds for the Open Championship.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday afternoon.
Scottie Shuffler's the FA over to plus four fifty, Rory
McElroy's plus seven hundred, John Ramis plus twelve hundred, Bryson D.
Chambeau plus two thousand, Xander Schoffley plus twenty five hundred.
Colin Moricawa, Tommy Fleetwood and Lindwig Oberg are plus twenty
(16:13):
eight hundred. Victor hoblind, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry are
plus three thousand, Robert McIntyre plus thirty five hundred, and
then a big group before we get to uh yeah,
then a big, big gap, I should say, before we
get to Sepstraka, Justin Thomas and Joaque Neeman at plus
five thousand, which is the favorites.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Are you interested in bau Well, a lot of.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
People are saying, oh, just just bet Scotti Scheffler since
he's not getting plus two seventy five odds this week.
Scotty Scheffler does not putt well on leaks courses, very
simple fescue greens. He looked bedeviled last week. He was
number one in ball striking, number one hundred and eighteen
in putting. Uh, there's something about these greens, these rescue greens,
(16:58):
where they are bumpy, they're irregular, and they put slow.
He cannot read them. It's like he's he's trying to
read Braille and he's he's not taken any classes. And
so until we see Scotti Scheffler actually put on fescue greens, well,
I'm not touching him, not even close. He's completely off
my board. I'm not playing him at all. And if
(17:18):
he wins, you can blame me for cursing and teaching
him how to read the braille bumpy fescue greens. But
I'm starting my card at Rory McElroy. Yes, he missed
the cut here in twenty nineteen, but that was because
he pulled off what's very few. It's called the Fitzmorris Special.
Pat Fitzmorris made this famous. He had a double bogie,
a triple boge and a quad bogie in the same.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
Round of golf.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
In his first round at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen,
shot at seventy nine. He ended up shooting a second
round sixty five and missed the cut by one shot.
This is his home game. He's from Holywood in the
county down next door. It's this is Rory McElroy's to win.
I think he wins handily going away. I think he
wins by four or five shots. To be honest, that
(18:01):
he's gonna pull off the Shane Lowry Special where he
wins by six. I think Rory McIlroy is the player
to beat, and I don't think it's gonna be relatively close.
That's where I'm starting my card at plus seven fifty
plus seven hundred, depending on where you're getting it, That's
where I'm going. It's really hard to get off of
(18:21):
that number. But then you go and need to look
at Xander Schoffley, who's the best the most strokes gained
on links courses of anybody over the last two and
a half three years, if you include the Scottish and
all the Open Championships, Xander Schoffley by far the gain's
most strokes from tee to green and on the greens,
and he's at plus twenty five hundred. That is an
amazing deal, an amazing deal, the best deal ever for
(18:45):
the champion golf of the year to go back to
back at two different golf courses. He fits this course
like a glove. I can't believe he's at twenty.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Five to one.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
And then Shane Lowry here, your former winner at the
twenty nineteen guy at Rowport, She's at thirty to one.
Where are these odds coming from? Scotty Scheffler getting all
the respect that he does not deserve on this type
of golf course, and he got Rory who should win,
Xander and Lowry getting crazy odds. I think I'll just
wrap it up right there, the top tier or Rory,
(19:15):
Xander Shane Lowry, and don't overthink it.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
We are normally pretty much on the same page with
a lot of our takes on this most week, not
this week. I think we're pretty diametrically opposed here. I
think Scotty could be a value at plus four fifties.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
Long and straight off the tee.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
His iron play is magnificent and I believe he ranks
second on tour in scrambling, which is going to be key.
I understand what you're saying about fescue greens. He does
look vexed by them at times, but I will trust
in Scotty to be able to overcome that and have
a lot of short, makeable pots this week. So I'm
(19:56):
actually on Scotty this week.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
And as for.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Rory, he's right, he won't need to scramble.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
That's a good point. And I know Rory is you know,
he's a native son. He's coming off at a tie
for second at the Scottish and it was sixth in
his last event before that, the Travelers. But but it
seems like Rory often disappoints when expectations.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
For him are at their highest. He missed a couple
months ago, excepted Augusta.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
But then again, it had gotten to the point where
Rory was seen as such a perennial non contender at
the Masters that I think he didn't have the same
sort of pressure that he carried earlier.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
In his career.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
They've had the Open at Royal Championship at Royal Port
Rush before and Rory missed the cut, and even those
games seems pretty well suited to Royal Port Rush. I'm
staying away this week. I just I'm not feeling it
and it's a little vibes based, but so and with Xander,
(20:57):
like he's playing in a dozen events this season, his
best finish are a pair of ties for eighth one
of the Masters, one of the Scottish Open last week.
I know he is the defending Championship Golf of the year,
does play really well at links courses, but I am
a little concerned that he ranks one hundred and sixty
six in scrambling out of one hundred and seventy seven players.
He has not been good around the greens this week.
(21:20):
Colin Morricowin lud big Oberg haven't exactly been scrambling aces
this season either, so they worry me a little bit.
That's just I feel like that is going to be
such a key component this week. I'm not sure I
can back Sander now a couple other guys I want
to just guys, I'm totally eliminating from consideration Bryson d Chambeau.
(21:44):
I just I don't think his approach off the t
is going to work at role Port Russia. Though I
thought the same thing about Bryson when he won the
US Opener wingfoot Tommy Fleetwood, Yes, he contended here in
twenty nineteen and is often in the haunts, but he
just doesn't wait. Victor Hovelin scrambling is just so critical
this week, and it's the worst part of Hovelin's game.
(22:05):
And Justin Thomas just way too errant with the driver
this year.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
I don't think we can.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
I'm with you on all the deques, the disqualifiers, I'm
with you in lockstep on those other than Xander. Just
I feel like Xander's finally rounding into it at the
right time.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
But yeah, the.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Guys you mentioned as a no go, I'm with you
on those, yeah.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Now.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Tyroll Hatton is kind of interesting. He finished sixth the
Royal Port Rushian twenty nineteen. He's he was very much
in the hunt of the US Open last month. He's
good and windy conditions, He's worth paying attention to. Robert
McIntyre was sixth that Royal Port Russian twenty nineteen and
had been playing very well up until the Scottish Open.
He had that near victory in the US Open where
(22:54):
it took a JJ spawn miracle to beat him. It
was strange to see McIntyre stub his toe in his
home country. Last week at the Scottish Open, he finished
tied for sixty fifth. Makes me wonder if maybe we
get a strong bounce back from a very motivated Bobby
MacIntyre this week.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
He very much interests me.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
What about John Ramball, So, dating back to last April,
ram has finished no worse than eleventh in any of
his yeah last seven Live Tour events and majors, although
he hasn't won any of them. Do you think 'ro
Allport rush shuits his game?
Speaker 4 (23:28):
It does.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
I worry about his approach game has been a little lackluster,
and his driving is so good that he might just
be a more aggressive option than Scotty Scheffler. I like
Scheffler a lot. I just don't like him at his
odds getting a discount on a similar style player like
John Rahm, with a little bit better power in his game,
(23:50):
which we'll play here, having shorter approaches that you can
kind of control spin on that that's going to be
important this week. So John Ram is definitely on my rate.
I just don't know if I want to bet on
him with the odds I'm getting on the other guys
in the top tier. But I'm not saying that's a
bad pick at all. I just think his numbers kind
of on the break even point for me where I'm
(24:12):
not seeing a lot of edge.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
There any interest in Sepstraca. A lot of people seem
to be on him this week.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
No, because we're over seventy three hundred yards. Straca just
does not compete on longer courses than average. He's very,
very good on shorter courses. I just think his short
game is awful, like chipping.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
He's good at.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Scrambling when he gets into trouble, but his approach game
is good. I just don't think that if he gets
out of position that Sepstraca can save par enough. But
if it is a shorter golf course where he's flipping
wedges and all the greens, then yeah, for sure. But
this isn't that course, this isn't that event. Sepstraca hasn't
proven it yet in a major, and I'm not going
that far yet.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Yeah, good call, and you seem to have a pretty
good read on him this season.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Let's look at more of the odds.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
We've got Brooks Kopka, Patrick can't Lay, Matt Fitzpatrick can
Jordan Speith at plus fifty five hundred, Russell Henley is
plus sixty five hundred, Corey Connors and Justin Rowls are
plus seventy five hundred, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, Sam Burns,
Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Reider plus eight thousand, and Chris
gotter Up, Ryan Fox, Ben Griffin and Jason Day are
plus nine thousand.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
What about these mid range options?
Speaker 3 (25:20):
These mid range options are fun, but the numbers don't
really make a lot of sense for me. I like
Russell Henley here because again, this is a great links player,
really likes to use his creativity around the greens. He's
a really clutch putter and a really good approach game
from that one fifty to two hundred range that's going
(25:41):
to be important. Henley is a really good pick here.
Sixty five to one is insane for how good he's
playing this season, So I think I will agree with
you on him. And then Patrick Reid is really hard
to ignore.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Eighty to one.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
There's a couple of guys here at eighty to one
that I really like on other golf courses.
Speaker 4 (26:00):
But Patrick Reid, with his short game.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
As nails as it is coming off a win last
week on LIV. This guy is so talented nobody can
stand him. He's got one of the worst personalities in golf.
He likes to sue people and block everybody on social media.
He's soft as charman. But the guy can play golf.
The guy can play. He's an atrocious Starbucks order, still
(26:23):
great at golf, and in majors he seems to rise
to the occasion. I think Patrick Reid might be the
pick I have at eighty to one, even though there's
a lot of big names that are getting a lot
of attention this week at eighty to one. At ninety
to one, I'll have my feelers out for Ben Griffin
too at ninety to one.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Yeah, Reid was tenth at Royal Port Rush six years ago.
Doesn't have a great track record in Open championships, but
you know his best ever finish.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
I love Henley Bow and there seems to be this
weird correlay between success at the Cognizant Classic formerly known
as the Honda Classic and success of the Open Championship.
Speaker 4 (27:07):
Yeah, a lot of to make me talk about Straka more.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Yeah, exactly, Straca is the guy who's done well in
that tournament. A lot of the guys who fared well
at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen have good track
records at the Cognizan Classic, and Russell Henley is definitely
one of them. He's won that event, He's finished third
in that event. I think he's got another top ten
in that event. And Henley fourteenth and driving accuracy fifteenth,
strokes gained an approach sixth and strokes gained around the green.
(27:34):
I really like him this week.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
The solid, solid pick and the odds are perfect for him.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Sixty five to one is.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Yeah, Now, Brooks.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Koepka has not played well at all on the Live
Tour this season, but Kepka is just a different guy
in majors.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
He was fourth at Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Back in twenty nineteen, his best ever finished in an
Open championship. And oh, we have to talk about Jordan
Spieth at the Open Championship. Great track record, I think
we do. I mean he won at Royal Birkdale in
twenty seventeen, runner up at Royal Saint George's in twenty
twenty one. He's had three other top tens, tied for
(28:09):
twenty at the Royal Port Rush six years ago. Speith
has been out with a neck injury for the last month,
but maybe it was more than just a neck injury.
Speith has announced that his wife recently gave birth to
their third child. I kind of liked the idea of
betting a fresh, happy Jordan Speeth this week.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Yeah, No, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Gonna do that. He is famously can't find the fairway
with the map and if you miss the fairways here,
you're done.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Yeah. I think it's going to hurt him more here
than it will on some other courses. All right, what
about long shots, bo anyone in one hundred to one
odds are longer worth a flyer?
Speaker 4 (28:45):
Oh you know, I got him of course.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
First one Harry Hall Again, we're looking at one hundred
and ten to one for Harry Hall at the Open Championship.
Wizard with the short game, great putter. His ball striking
has been much improved this season, especially off the tee,
where he has struggled in the past. He's been a
lot better, a really solid iron player. Uh, and then
we're getting one hundred and seventy to one on oxhe Batilla,
(29:09):
another cognizant classic guy that it's it just seems like
you're if you're talking about one hundred and fifty yard
approach shots and his off the tea game has been
so much improved. His putting has gone from one hundred
plus ranking in the world to top twenty in putting.
A ok she bat at one hundred and seventy to one
makes no sense to me. Marco Pene taught. We just
(29:31):
saw him last week compete at the Scottish very nearly
won that tournament, ran out of Birdie's at the end
thanks to Chris Goddrup just keeping the pedal down. Marco
Penje is a real player and he lashes it out there,
one hundred and ninety ball speed. He's one of those
big hitters that can take advantage of a golf course
a lah Rory McElroy. And then finally at two hundred
(29:52):
to one, I have Jordan L. Smith, the Englishman outstanding
player on the DP World Tour. To get this quality
of a golfer who's won multiple events on the DP
World Tour in the last couple of years. At two
hundred to one at the Open Championship, are you kidding me?
Jordan nel Smith two hundred and one and I'm gonna
be pretty aggressive about that one. I was ecstatic to
(30:13):
see his name down there.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
I'm gonna mention five long shots. Tom McKibben is one
hundred and fifty to one. Native of Northern Ireland, has
finished top five in his last two Live Tour events.
Tom Kim one hundred and fifty to one. Having a
poor season, no question, but he seems to have a
thing for link style courses. He was second at Hoylake
in twenty twenty three. He was seventeenth at the Scottish
(30:37):
Open last week. Yeah, for some reason, links golf brings
out the best in Tom Kim, Nikolai Hoyguard one hundred
and fifty to one. That is quite a player for
odds that long. He finished fourth at the Scottish Open
last week. The only problem is that Hoyguard does sprayed
off the tea. I think he's like one hundred and
sixty eighth and driving accuracy that could be a big issue.
(30:58):
Englishman Daniel Brown won the BMW Invitational Open on the
DP World Tour two weeks ago. Tied for tenth last
year at Royal Troon in his Open Championship debut. He
is three hundred to one and maybe my favorite dart
throw bow Christopher Rye Tan of Norway. He is three
(31:18):
hundred and fifty to one. He won a DP World
Tour event in late May. He has four top five
finishes and six top fifteen finishes in his last nine
World DP World Tour events. He has been hot and
to get a guy that hot at three hundred and
fifty to one, sign me up.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah all right, bo, who's on your early betting card?
Speaker 3 (31:41):
So I have I have some guy named Rory McElroy,
Northern Irishman, Xander Schafflee twenty five to one, Shane Lowry
thirty to one, Russell Henley sixty five to one, Patrick
Reid eighty to one, and then I got Ben Griffin
ninety to one, Harry Hall one hundred and ten to one,
Ok Shabatia one hundred and seventy to one, Co Penns
one hundred and eighty to one and Jordan L. Smith
(32:03):
two hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Yeah, I'm betting Scotty at plus four fifty, and you
know when I bet Scotty, I like to keep the
rest of the card paired down a little bit. So
it's going to be Scotty along with Robert McIntyre at
plus three fifty, Russell Henley at plus excuse me, plus
thirty five hundred for Robert McIntyre, plus sixty five hundred
for Russell Henley. Then I'm going to go with Tom
(32:25):
Kim at one hundred and fifty to one, Daniel Brown
at three hundred to one, and Christopher wry Ten at
three fifty to one. Now, before we get to our
one and done picks, we do have another event on
the PGA Tour this week.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
It's a US based tournament.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
They always have won the week of the Open Championships
and so few Americans automatically qualify for the Open. This
week it's the Barracuda Championship at the Tahoe Mountain Club
in Trucky, California, your neck of.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
The woods, bo I'll be there.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
Barrikkuda is the only PGA Tour event that uses the
modified Stableford scoring system, where players get points for birdies
eagles and lose points for Bogie's and worse Baul.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Nor Cal native.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
Kirk Kittiyama is the barricutive favorite at twenty to one.
I threw a couple bucks on Max Homa at twenty
five to one, and I bet exactly one dollar on
Crystal Ball Del Solar at two hundred and fifty to one.
Do you have any favorite bets for this year's Barracuda.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I'll be boots on the ground shout out NorCal. The
Barracuda is really fun. That golf course up there in
Trucky is gorgeous and it's at elevation. I think Kirk Kittiyama,
with his distance off the tee, is going to be
really hard to beat. Twenty to one favorite, I'll take
that all day. And then I am also betting on
your guy Rio Hisatsune from Japan, great ball striker, another good,
(33:45):
good hitter, Hayden Springer. Somehow seventy five to one in
this field, that's amazing value. And then I'm also going
to back you up on Christobal del Solar. He's Chilean
and two hundred fifty to one is too good for
how well he's playing this year.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Now for our one and done picks, I took Robert
McIntyre last week. He was very disappointing, time for sixty fifth.
That was good for only nineteen eight hundred dollars. Boet
Tommy Fleetwood who tied for thirty fourth, good for fifty two,
nine hundred and fifty dollars. Disappointing weeks from our two
Europeans in the Scottish Open. You are up first if
the Open Championship bow hit me.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I've been saving Rory McElroy for this exact moment. I'm
using him.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
Bringing out Rory in Northern Ireland. I am going to
try to go game three optional here using a live
tour player with one of my few opportunities. I'm going
to take Tyrroll Hatton. He's short, he can, He's cut
load of the ground for windy conditions. That's all for
this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. Please come join us
(34:49):
again next week when we will be previewing the three
M Open in Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 5 (34:56):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Beau mcbreer. It's Open Championship week. The final
name of the twenty twenty five golf season is upon
us and it promises to be a good one. We're
excited to preview it and let you know who we're
betting on this week and why before we get into
our Open Championship betting preview. A very quick recap of
(00:22):
last week Scottish Open. Chris got her Up wins the
Scottish Open, finishing fifteen under par. Quite the unexpected victory
for got her Up, his second on the PGA Tour,
but a far more impressive win than his first, which
was at last year's.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Myrtle Beach Classic.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Got her Up got himself in position to contend with
a sixty one on Friday. He went into the final
round tied for the lead with Rory McElroy. Certainly the
odds maker saw it as a David versus Goliath matchup
entering Sunday's round. McElroy's odds to win before the final
round minus one twenty got her up to odds plus
four hundred, but got her up Rose to the occasion.
(01:00):
Closed with the sixty six and you know when he
bogied the opening hole. Sunday it seemed like he might
go away, but got her up made six birdies in
the final round. He burdied all three of the par fives.
Rory just couldn't get it going. He needed some birdies
down the stretch and couldn't find them. He made no
birdies and nine pars on the back nine got her up.
Had quietly been playing some pretty solid golf this season,
(01:22):
although there was a little indication he was ready to
win a tournament by you know, dispatching one of the
best players in the world. Got nine top twenty five
finishes going into the Scottish Open, but not a single
top ten. He was ranked one hundred and fifty eighth
in the world going into the Scottish Open. He's now
up to forty ninth. Good to see Rory contend. Even
(01:45):
if he couldn't seal the deal, he appears ready for
the Open Championship. Finishing in a tie per second with
Rory was Englishman Marco Penge, who highlighted on the show
last week as a long shot. Word for your attention,
Matt Fitzpatrick was also in the hunt but finished three
shots back along with Nikolai Hoyguard. And it's worth noting
that Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schafflin, Ludwig Oberg all finished nine
(02:08):
hunderd par tying for eighth play. It's good to see
the big guns playing reasonably well heading into the Open.
There was another PGA Tour event this week. This past
week won on American soil. William Mao won the ISCO
Championship in Kentucky, and he did it in pretty remarkable fashion.
He was seven shots off the lead going into the
(02:29):
final round, but Mao shot a blistering sixty one on
Sunday at Hurstbourne Country Club, which had been playing really
tough all week. Then Mao sat in the clubhouse with
his lead and waited. Only Paul Peterson came close to
catching Mao. Peterson needed a birdie on one of his
last two holes to force a playoff, couldn't get one,
and mal walked away with this first PGA Tour win
(02:52):
and Bo McBriar had a nice little DFS score with
his ISCO tournament, finishing second in a DraftKings fair well done, bow.
Give me your thoughts on that and on the Scottish Open.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
The Scottish was great. Actually, Chris Gotterrup was my last
bet of the entire week, and it was only because
on my other show, we do a hat pick at
the very end of the show where we draw a
number out of the hat and whatever number that is,
we go down to our model list and we picked
which player is at that number. The first time ever
(03:24):
it was a top five number, so I went down
to number four thinking it was gonna be somebody like
Xander and Connor's other pick was Harry Hall. Well, Harry
Hall was my number three. So I looked down at
number four on my model and who sat there but
Chris Gottrup. And I didn't even know what his odds were,
and I somehow had just kind of put a star
next to his name for DFS. That's what I was
(03:47):
really looking for with Chris Gottrup. He was in my
DFS lineup for the Scottish and I ended up throwing
eighty to one bet on him on Wednesday, just as
a yolo hat pick number four in my model Why not?
And so I did win on Chris got her up.
And I also had two names that I wrote down
to bet on for the ISCO in Louisville, and one
(04:08):
of them was William Mao. So and so I had
Mao in my DFS lineup and sixty five to one
bet and I had got Her up at eighty to
one and he was in my Scottish lineup which which
also profited.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
So it's been a.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Really hot four week stretch for me. I'm looking to
run right into the Open Championship, but it's so far.
The impressive part about got Her Up was that his
ball striking has always been good, but what has held
him back was his short game. His putting, namely, his
short game has been better all those top twenty five finishes.
He actually had five consecutive top five finishes or top
(04:46):
twenty five finishes leading into the Scottish out of the
nine and no top tens. They were like, oh, he's
the next Tommy Fleetwood, and so it was.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
It was.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
It was interesting because now he has two more PGA
Tour victories than Tommy Fleetwood at this stage in his career. Yeah,
got her Up still in his early twenties. He's he
was a very quick graduate of the corn Ferry Tour.
One on his rookie season last year at the Myrtle
Beach Classic. There's a lot more to come, especially if
this guy finds a little bit more of a consistent
(05:19):
putting stroke.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
But we've seen that his.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
Ball striking carries over to multiple types of venues. Now
winning a birdie Fest and at the Scottish where it
was baked out and hot and it was dry, and
you could tell that even Rory, with his distance and
apex height, he was having trouble holding those greens. They
were really fast and firm, and got Her Up just
seemed to be dialed in with his distance control off
(05:44):
the fairway. And of course he's out there launching the
ball three hundred and fifty yards just like Rory. So
the David versus Goliath narrative was pretty quickly snuffed out
because Gottterrup's got game.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, and maybe it doesn't fit because got Her Up
is a big strike apping lad.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
He was the big boy. He looked more like a
Goliathan of David.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
He's a big guy from Jersey.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yes he is, with a little bit of a lacrosse background.
I understand too. Now we will get to the Open
Championship preview in just a moment. Right after Bo tells
you about the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
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(06:39):
your own seven day free trial of Betting Pros Premium
by downloading the app at bettingpros dot com slash apps
using code juice and activating your trial on the upgrade screen.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Let's start digging into the Open Championship and we'll start
by talking about the venue, royal Port Rush in County Antrim,
Northern Ireland. The course is located on the northern tip
of Northern Ireland, right along the North Atlantic. Weather is
going to be a huge factor this week. It certainly
was in twenty nineteen when we got a very wet,
saggy Open Championship at royal Port Rush. That was when
(07:12):
Irishman Shane Lowry hoisted the Claret jug. Lowry just smoked
the rest of the field that week. He was fifteen
under par. Tommy Fleetwood was second at nine under par.
Tony fied Out Brooks Kepkin, Lee Westwood rounded out the
top five. Westwood is back in the field this week
by the way he earned his way in through qualifying.
Only twenty nine players finished under par in twenty nineteen
(07:35):
at Royal Port Rush. It's a par seventy one that
we'll play two seven, three hundred and eighty one yards.
Not brutally long, but the wind is going to make
some holes play quite long. This is a Lynx course,
but it's links golf with a twist. On most of
the courses in the Open Championship Roder, you can play
bump and run shots into a lot of the greens
and let the contours of the course feed the ball
(07:56):
toward the hole. Royal Port Rush has a bunch of
elevated so players are going to have to come in
high on a lot of their approach shots, and obviously
hitting high shots into a stiff winds that's a challenge.
A lot of the Open Championship courses have huge greens
and tons of bunkers, which helps promote that bump and
run play. Royal Port Rush smaller greens, fewer bunkers. A
(08:19):
lot of these fescue based greens are guarded by grassy mounds,
and while there aren't a lot of bunkers, the ones
awaiting players are rather punishing. They're speaking of speaking of
punishing trouble awaits errant drives. On this course, gorse bushes
will catch a lot of bad drives. There's tall fescue
rough and there are number of spots where players can
(08:40):
go out of bounds. Adding to the difficulty is the wind.
Most of the holes face either southwest or northeast. The
winds come to tend to come from the north or northwest,
so players are often going to have to deal with
crosswinds off the tee. As with most open courses, royal
Port Rushes all sorts of bumps and hollows in the
fair way. Players are going to hit a lot of
shots off uneven lies and it's imperative that you.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Get off to a good start. At Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
Everyone goes off the first te No one starts at
number ten. There's no need to split the tea times
as you see in the US opener PGA. Since the
UK gets so many hours of sunlight this time of year,
now the first five.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
On links courses, tenth holes way off in the distance.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
It's not back at the clubhouse.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Good point generally, although this is not a classic nine
holes out, nine holes back type of layout. This one
could have arcs around a little bit, but the first
five holes are pretty easy relative to the rest of
the course. Holds two, three, and five offer some of
the best birdy opportunities anywhere at royal Port Rush. Shane
Lowry played the first five holes at nine under par
(09:46):
winn he won here in twenty nineteen. The last five holes,
on the other hand, are pretty brutal. Play the closing
five holes at even par and you should be very pleased.
The toughest hole on the closing stretch is the par
three sixteen, known as Calamity Corner. It's two hundred and
thirty six yards and there's a steep drop off up
the right side of the hole. If you miss rights,
(10:09):
saving par becomes almost impossible.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, so that's all dead.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Yeah, you're shooting just dead uphill, blindly into the green,
hard to get it close. The green and regulation percentage
on the sixteenth hole in twenty nineteen under fifty percent
forty forty one, so not even close to fifty percent.
Another hole worth highlighting is the par five seventh. This
is one of the newer holes at royal Port Rush.
(10:35):
They added a few ahead of the twenty nineteen Open.
Number seven is a six hundred and seventy yard par five.
There's an elevated t shot that requires players to navigate
a pair of fairway bunkers on either side. You can
reach this hole into with a good drive and a
cooperative wind, but this is one of the only holes
at Royal Port Rush that usually plays into the wind,
(10:56):
and the layup area is really small and it includes
a nasty bunker the players are going to have to
try to avoid. So Xander Schoffley is the defending Championship
Golfer of the Year. He won at Royal Troon last year.
Let's talk about the weather forecast for the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
There's rain in.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
The forecast for all four rounds, hopefully not a pouring
rain and a persistent rain. With luck, we'll have some
more dry periods than we had in twenty nineteen. Wind
is not expected to be too gusty ten to fifteen
miles per hour on Thursday and Sunday five to ten
on Friday and Saturday. That would make it very playable,
(11:34):
but forecasting the conditions along the Northern Ireland coast is
probably a fool's errand brief squalls are always a possibility.
Seems as if driving accuracy and scrambling are going to
be especially important this week. Bo, there's a lot to unpack.
What say you about Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
I just love how it's not a traditional links but
it's got enough of those elements to make it a
real fun taste of Irish golf. Like Northern Ireland. Apparently
my ancestors came from that county Intrim in Northern Ireland
from by way of Scotland when they immigrated to America,
so the Sacred Ground is also a Northern Ireland It's
(12:14):
it's it's pretty cool because this course is tough in
a different way that that road of courses are tough.
Like you said, usually you're dealing with really fast runouts
on the fairways and then the bump. The bumpy greens
are gigantic, even double greens on some of the road
to courses. This course has small greens. It's more it's
more like Pebble Beach with gorse bushes than it is
(12:35):
like St. Andrews, for example. It's like the opposite of
Saint Andrews, where you have to be off the t accurate,
but you also have to be very precise with your irons,
especially in that one fifty to two hundred range. This
is it's going to be really challenging if those squalls
do pop up, which is very possible. He said, it's
a fool's errand I don't think they employ any meteorologists
(12:56):
in in that in that neck of the woods because
it's just pointless, like your forecast might change three times
per hour, and it's just you can say, oh yeah,
on Thursday, it's gonna be ten to fifteen on hour
gusts and went in rain here and there.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
But you never you just never know.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
A lot like the Scottish last week where he had
dry weather but it was you just never know when
it's those squalls are gonna pop up, especially along the
North Atlantic there. This is gonna be fun because it's
gonna challenge the whole bag, not just scrambling. It's gonna
be it's gonna be off the t, it's gonna be approach,
it's gonna be of course, the short game around the greens.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
It's also gonna.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Be more of your bogey avoidance than your three pet avoidance.
Like last week in a normal road of course, you
really have to focus on three putt avoidance because the
greens are massive and your lag putting really matters here.
It's gonna be okay, how did you hit the fairway
A and B? Were you in position to actually make
a go at some of these pin placements on these
(13:54):
smaller greens. And if it doesn't rain very much, these light,
little greens are still gonna a lot of bounce to them.
They're not going to have a lot of receptiveness, and
they're still gonna put slow and bumpy because they're fescue.
So it's still gonna be a challenge a little bit
of carnage, especially if that wind picks up a little
bit more than it's forecasted. I think the rain is
(14:14):
pretty much to be expected. You're gonna get moisture this
week in Northern Ireland. It's just that's what happens in
the summertime. I just I love this golf course. It's
gorgeous on TV. It's absolutely gorgeous. It's one of the
places i'd really much like to visit. Maybe I can
scrounge up some extra mcbrayers across the pond and meet them.
(14:34):
But for this week, I'll be watching on TV and
it'll be exciting to see who comes out on top
as champion golf for the year. Will it be a
favorite or will it be somebody out of left field?
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, let's get into some of the conversation about the players.
We will break down the Open Championship odds in just
a moment, but first.
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Speaker 1 (15:52):
Let's run through some of the odds for the Open Championship.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday afternoon.
Scottie Shuffler's the FA over to plus four fifty, Rory
McElroy's plus seven hundred, John Ramis plus twelve hundred, Bryson D.
Chambeau plus two thousand, Xander Schoffley plus twenty five hundred.
Colin Moricawa, Tommy Fleetwood and Lindwig Oberg are plus twenty
(16:13):
eight hundred. Victor hoblind, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry are
plus three thousand, Robert McIntyre plus thirty five hundred, and
then a big group before we get to uh yeah,
then a big, big gap, I should say, before we
get to Sepstraka, Justin Thomas and Joaque Neeman at plus
five thousand, which is the favorites.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Are you interested in bau Well, a lot of.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
People are saying, oh, just just bet Scotti Scheffler since
he's not getting plus two seventy five odds this week.
Scotty Scheffler does not putt well on leaks courses, very
simple fescue greens. He looked bedeviled last week. He was
number one in ball striking, number one hundred and eighteen
in putting. Uh, there's something about these greens, these rescue greens,
(16:58):
where they are bumpy, they're irregular, and they put slow.
He cannot read them. It's like he's he's trying to
read Braille and he's he's not taken any classes. And
so until we see Scotti Scheffler actually put on fescue greens, well,
I'm not touching him, not even close. He's completely off
my board. I'm not playing him at all. And if
(17:18):
he wins, you can blame me for cursing and teaching
him how to read the braille bumpy fescue greens. But
I'm starting my card at Rory McElroy. Yes, he missed
the cut here in twenty nineteen, but that was because
he pulled off what's very few. It's called the Fitzmorris Special.
Pat Fitzmorris made this famous. He had a double bogie,
a triple boge and a quad bogie in the same.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
Round of golf.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
In his first round at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen,
shot at seventy nine. He ended up shooting a second
round sixty five and missed the cut by one shot.
This is his home game. He's from Holywood in the
county down next door. It's this is Rory McElroy's to win.
I think he wins handily going away. I think he
wins by four or five shots. To be honest, that
(18:01):
he's gonna pull off the Shane Lowry Special where he
wins by six. I think Rory McIlroy is the player
to beat, and I don't think it's gonna be relatively close.
That's where I'm starting my card at plus seven fifty
plus seven hundred, depending on where you're getting it, That's
where I'm going. It's really hard to get off of
(18:21):
that number. But then you go and need to look
at Xander Schoffley, who's the best the most strokes gained
on links courses of anybody over the last two and
a half three years, if you include the Scottish and
all the Open Championships, Xander Schoffley by far the gain's
most strokes from tee to green and on the greens,
and he's at plus twenty five hundred. That is an
amazing deal, an amazing deal, the best deal ever for
(18:45):
the champion golf of the year to go back to
back at two different golf courses. He fits this course
like a glove. I can't believe he's at twenty.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Five to one.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
And then Shane Lowry here, your former winner at the
twenty nineteen guy at Rowport, She's at thirty to one.
Where are these odds coming from? Scotty Scheffler getting all
the respect that he does not deserve on this type
of golf course, and he got Rory who should win,
Xander and Lowry getting crazy odds. I think I'll just
wrap it up right there, the top tier or Rory,
(19:15):
Xander Shane Lowry, and don't overthink it.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
We are normally pretty much on the same page with
a lot of our takes on this most week, not
this week. I think we're pretty diametrically opposed here. I
think Scotty could be a value at plus four fifties.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
Long and straight off the tee.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
His iron play is magnificent and I believe he ranks
second on tour in scrambling, which is going to be key.
I understand what you're saying about fescue greens. He does
look vexed by them at times, but I will trust
in Scotty to be able to overcome that and have
a lot of short, makeable pots this week. So I'm
(19:56):
actually on Scotty this week.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
And as for.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Rory, he's right, he won't need to scramble.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
That's a good point. And I know Rory is you know,
he's a native son. He's coming off at a tie
for second at the Scottish and it was sixth in
his last event before that, the Travelers. But but it
seems like Rory often disappoints when expectations.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
For him are at their highest. He missed a couple
months ago, excepted Augusta.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
But then again, it had gotten to the point where
Rory was seen as such a perennial non contender at
the Masters that I think he didn't have the same
sort of pressure that he carried earlier.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
In his career.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
They've had the Open at Royal Championship at Royal Port
Rush before and Rory missed the cut, and even those
games seems pretty well suited to Royal Port Rush. I'm
staying away this week. I just I'm not feeling it
and it's a little vibes based, but so and with Xander,
(20:57):
like he's playing in a dozen events this season, his
best finish are a pair of ties for eighth one
of the Masters, one of the Scottish Open last week.
I know he is the defending Championship Golf of the year,
does play really well at links courses, but I am
a little concerned that he ranks one hundred and sixty
six in scrambling out of one hundred and seventy seven players.
He has not been good around the greens this week.
(21:20):
Colin Morricowin lud big Oberg haven't exactly been scrambling aces
this season either, so they worry me a little bit.
That's just I feel like that is going to be
such a key component this week. I'm not sure I
can back Sander now a couple other guys I want
to just guys, I'm totally eliminating from consideration Bryson d Chambeau.
(21:44):
I just I don't think his approach off the t
is going to work at role Port Russia. Though I
thought the same thing about Bryson when he won the
US Opener wingfoot Tommy Fleetwood, Yes, he contended here in
twenty nineteen and is often in the haunts, but he
just doesn't wait. Victor Hovelin scrambling is just so critical
this week, and it's the worst part of Hovelin's game.
(22:05):
And Justin Thomas just way too errant with the driver
this year.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
I don't think we can.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
I'm with you on all the deques, the disqualifiers, I'm
with you in lockstep on those other than Xander. Just
I feel like Xander's finally rounding into it at the
right time.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
But yeah, the.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Guys you mentioned as a no go, I'm with you
on those, yeah.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Now.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Tyroll Hatton is kind of interesting. He finished sixth the
Royal Port Rushian twenty nineteen. He's he was very much
in the hunt of the US Open last month. He's
good and windy conditions, He's worth paying attention to. Robert
McIntyre was sixth that Royal Port Russian twenty nineteen and
had been playing very well up until the Scottish Open.
He had that near victory in the US Open where
(22:54):
it took a JJ spawn miracle to beat him. It
was strange to see McIntyre stub his toe in his
home country. Last week at the Scottish Open, he finished
tied for sixty fifth. Makes me wonder if maybe we
get a strong bounce back from a very motivated Bobby
MacIntyre this week.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
He very much interests me.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
What about John Ramball, So, dating back to last April,
ram has finished no worse than eleventh in any of
his yeah last seven Live Tour events and majors, although
he hasn't won any of them. Do you think 'ro
Allport rush shuits his game?
Speaker 4 (23:28):
It does.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
I worry about his approach game has been a little lackluster,
and his driving is so good that he might just
be a more aggressive option than Scotty Scheffler. I like
Scheffler a lot. I just don't like him at his
odds getting a discount on a similar style player like
John Rahm, with a little bit better power in his game,
(23:50):
which we'll play here, having shorter approaches that you can
kind of control spin on that that's going to be
important this week. So John Ram is definitely on my rate.
I just don't know if I want to bet on
him with the odds I'm getting on the other guys
in the top tier. But I'm not saying that's a
bad pick at all. I just think his numbers kind
of on the break even point for me where I'm
(24:12):
not seeing a lot of edge.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
There any interest in Sepstraca. A lot of people seem
to be on him this week.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
No, because we're over seventy three hundred yards. Straca just
does not compete on longer courses than average. He's very,
very good on shorter courses. I just think his short
game is awful, like chipping.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
He's good at.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Scrambling when he gets into trouble, but his approach game
is good. I just don't think that if he gets
out of position that Sepstraca can save par enough. But
if it is a shorter golf course where he's flipping
wedges and all the greens, then yeah, for sure. But
this isn't that course, this isn't that event. Sepstraca hasn't
proven it yet in a major, and I'm not going
that far yet.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Yeah, good call, and you seem to have a pretty
good read on him this season.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Let's look at more of the odds.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
We've got Brooks Kopka, Patrick can't Lay, Matt Fitzpatrick can
Jordan Speith at plus fifty five hundred, Russell Henley is
plus sixty five hundred, Corey Connors and Justin Rowls are
plus seventy five hundred, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, Sam Burns,
Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Reider plus eight thousand, and Chris
gotter Up, Ryan Fox, Ben Griffin and Jason Day are
plus nine thousand.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
What about these mid range options?
Speaker 3 (25:20):
These mid range options are fun, but the numbers don't
really make a lot of sense for me. I like
Russell Henley here because again, this is a great links player,
really likes to use his creativity around the greens. He's
a really clutch putter and a really good approach game
from that one fifty to two hundred range that's going
(25:41):
to be important. Henley is a really good pick here.
Sixty five to one is insane for how good he's
playing this season, So I think I will agree with
you on him. And then Patrick Reid is really hard
to ignore.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Eighty to one.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
There's a couple of guys here at eighty to one
that I really like on other golf courses.
Speaker 4 (26:00):
But Patrick Reid, with his short game.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
As nails as it is coming off a win last
week on LIV. This guy is so talented nobody can
stand him. He's got one of the worst personalities in golf.
He likes to sue people and block everybody on social media.
He's soft as charman. But the guy can play golf.
The guy can play. He's an atrocious Starbucks order, still
(26:23):
great at golf, and in majors he seems to rise
to the occasion. I think Patrick Reid might be the
pick I have at eighty to one, even though there's
a lot of big names that are getting a lot
of attention this week at eighty to one. At ninety
to one, I'll have my feelers out for Ben Griffin
too at ninety to one.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Yeah, Reid was tenth at Royal Port Rush six years ago.
Doesn't have a great track record in Open championships, but
you know his best ever finish.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
I love Henley Bow and there seems to be this
weird correlay between success at the Cognizant Classic formerly known
as the Honda Classic and success of the Open Championship.
Speaker 4 (27:07):
Yeah, a lot of to make me talk about Straka more.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Yeah, exactly, Straca is the guy who's done well in
that tournament. A lot of the guys who fared well
at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen have good track
records at the Cognizan Classic, and Russell Henley is definitely
one of them. He's won that event, He's finished third
in that event. I think he's got another top ten
in that event. And Henley fourteenth and driving accuracy fifteenth,
strokes gained an approach sixth and strokes gained around the green.
(27:34):
I really like him this week.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
The solid, solid pick and the odds are perfect for him.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Sixty five to one is.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
Yeah, Now, Brooks.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Koepka has not played well at all on the Live
Tour this season, but Kepka is just a different guy
in majors.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
He was fourth at Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Back in twenty nineteen, his best ever finished in an
Open championship. And oh, we have to talk about Jordan
Spieth at the Open Championship. Great track record, I think
we do. I mean he won at Royal Birkdale in
twenty seventeen, runner up at Royal Saint George's in twenty
twenty one. He's had three other top tens, tied for
(28:09):
twenty at the Royal Port Rush six years ago. Speith
has been out with a neck injury for the last month,
but maybe it was more than just a neck injury.
Speith has announced that his wife recently gave birth to
their third child. I kind of liked the idea of
betting a fresh, happy Jordan Speeth this week.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Yeah, No, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Gonna do that. He is famously can't find the fairway
with the map and if you miss the fairways here,
you're done.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Yeah. I think it's going to hurt him more here
than it will on some other courses. All right, what
about long shots, bo anyone in one hundred to one
odds are longer worth a flyer?
Speaker 4 (28:45):
Oh you know, I got him of course.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
First one Harry Hall Again, we're looking at one hundred
and ten to one for Harry Hall at the Open Championship.
Wizard with the short game, great putter. His ball striking
has been much improved this season, especially off the tee,
where he has struggled in the past. He's been a
lot better, a really solid iron player. Uh, and then
we're getting one hundred and seventy to one on oxhe Batilla,
(29:09):
another cognizant classic guy that it's it just seems like
you're if you're talking about one hundred and fifty yard
approach shots and his off the tea game has been
so much improved. His putting has gone from one hundred
plus ranking in the world to top twenty in putting.
A ok she bat at one hundred and seventy to one
makes no sense to me. Marco Pene taught. We just
(29:31):
saw him last week compete at the Scottish very nearly
won that tournament, ran out of Birdie's at the end
thanks to Chris Goddrup just keeping the pedal down. Marco
Penje is a real player and he lashes it out there,
one hundred and ninety ball speed. He's one of those
big hitters that can take advantage of a golf course
a lah Rory McElroy. And then finally at two hundred
(29:52):
to one, I have Jordan L. Smith, the Englishman outstanding
player on the DP World Tour. To get this quality
of a golfer who's won multiple events on the DP
World Tour in the last couple of years. At two
hundred to one at the Open Championship, are you kidding me?
Jordan nel Smith two hundred and one and I'm gonna
be pretty aggressive about that one. I was ecstatic to
(30:13):
see his name down there.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
I'm gonna mention five long shots. Tom McKibben is one
hundred and fifty to one. Native of Northern Ireland, has
finished top five in his last two Live Tour events.
Tom Kim one hundred and fifty to one. Having a
poor season, no question, but he seems to have a
thing for link style courses. He was second at Hoylake
in twenty twenty three. He was seventeenth at the Scottish
(30:37):
Open last week. Yeah, for some reason, links golf brings
out the best in Tom Kim, Nikolai Hoyguard one hundred
and fifty to one. That is quite a player for
odds that long. He finished fourth at the Scottish Open
last week. The only problem is that Hoyguard does sprayed
off the tea. I think he's like one hundred and
sixty eighth and driving accuracy that could be a big issue.
(30:58):
Englishman Daniel Brown won the BMW Invitational Open on the
DP World Tour two weeks ago. Tied for tenth last
year at Royal Troon in his Open Championship debut. He
is three hundred to one and maybe my favorite dart
throw bow Christopher Rye Tan of Norway. He is three
(31:18):
hundred and fifty to one. He won a DP World
Tour event in late May. He has four top five
finishes and six top fifteen finishes in his last nine
World DP World Tour events. He has been hot and
to get a guy that hot at three hundred and
fifty to one, sign me up.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah all right, bo, who's on your early betting card?
Speaker 3 (31:41):
So I have I have some guy named Rory McElroy,
Northern Irishman, Xander Schafflee twenty five to one, Shane Lowry
thirty to one, Russell Henley sixty five to one, Patrick
Reid eighty to one, and then I got Ben Griffin
ninety to one, Harry Hall one hundred and ten to one,
Ok Shabatia one hundred and seventy to one, Co Penns
one hundred and eighty to one and Jordan L. Smith
(32:03):
two hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Yeah, I'm betting Scotty at plus four fifty, and you
know when I bet Scotty, I like to keep the
rest of the card paired down a little bit. So
it's going to be Scotty along with Robert McIntyre at
plus three fifty, Russell Henley at plus excuse me, plus
thirty five hundred for Robert McIntyre, plus sixty five hundred
for Russell Henley. Then I'm going to go with Tom
(32:25):
Kim at one hundred and fifty to one, Daniel Brown
at three hundred to one, and Christopher wry Ten at
three fifty to one. Now, before we get to our
one and done picks, we do have another event on
the PGA Tour this week.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
It's a US based tournament.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
They always have won the week of the Open Championships
and so few Americans automatically qualify for the Open. This
week it's the Barracuda Championship at the Tahoe Mountain Club
in Trucky, California, your neck of.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
The woods, bo I'll be there.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
Barrikkuda is the only PGA Tour event that uses the
modified Stableford scoring system, where players get points for birdies
eagles and lose points for Bogie's and worse Baul.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Nor Cal native.
Speaker 1 (33:05):
Kirk Kittiyama is the barricutive favorite at twenty to one.
I threw a couple bucks on Max Homa at twenty
five to one, and I bet exactly one dollar on
Crystal Ball Del Solar at two hundred and fifty to one.
Do you have any favorite bets for this year's Barracuda.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I'll be boots on the ground shout out NorCal. The
Barracuda is really fun. That golf course up there in
Trucky is gorgeous and it's at elevation. I think Kirk Kittiyama,
with his distance off the tee, is going to be
really hard to beat. Twenty to one favorite, I'll take
that all day. And then I am also betting on
your guy Rio Hisatsune from Japan, great ball striker, another good,
(33:45):
good hitter, Hayden Springer. Somehow seventy five to one in
this field, that's amazing value. And then I'm also going
to back you up on Christobal del Solar. He's Chilean
and two hundred fifty to one is too good for
how well he's playing this year.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Now for our one and done picks, I took Robert
McIntyre last week. He was very disappointing, time for sixty fifth.
That was good for only nineteen eight hundred dollars. Boet
Tommy Fleetwood who tied for thirty fourth, good for fifty two,
nine hundred and fifty dollars. Disappointing weeks from our two
Europeans in the Scottish Open. You are up first if
the Open Championship bow hit me.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I've been saving Rory McElroy for this exact moment. I'm
using him.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
Bringing out Rory in Northern Ireland. I am going to
try to go game three optional here using a live
tour player with one of my few opportunities. I'm going
to take Tyrroll Hatton. He's short, he can, He's cut
load of the ground for windy conditions. That's all for
this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. Please come join us
(34:49):
again next week when we will be previewing the three
M Open in Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 5 (34:56):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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