July 8, 2025 • 35 mins
Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer recap the John Deere Classic before exploring the top betting strategies for the Scottish Open!
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections. Plus, we reveal our one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
John Deere Classic Recap - 0:00:15
The Scottish Open Preview - 0:05:58
BettingPros App - 0:13:18
The Favorites - 0:13:59
Novig App - 0:21:52
Mid-Range Options - 0:23:05
The Long Shots - 0:28:29
Betting Cards - 0:31:54
One-and-Done Picks - 0:33:12
Outro - 0:34:20
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,
joined by my tag team partner Bo mcbrair. Today we
have a full betting preview of the Genesis Scottish Open,
because if it's not Scottish, it's crap. Before we get
to that, Bo, I'm going to reluctantly pivot to a
quick recap of the John Deere Classic, where, for the
second time this season, Brian Campbell won a tournament in
(00:22):
a playoff, beating a player on whom I had a ticket.
In late February, Brian Campbell got that first PGA Tour
victory of his career when he beat Aldrich Pottgeater in
a playoff. In that tournament, Campbell sliced his drive on
the second playoff hole. It seemed as if it was
going to go out of bounds, but it struck a tree,
landed in a very playable spot in the rough. It
(00:44):
was a par five. Campbell wound up making birdie on
that hole and it proved to be the winning bertie.
Campbell did not need a friendly tree bounce this time around.
He vanquished my guy, Amiliano Grillo in a playoff at
the John Deere Classic. All Campbell had to do was
make a routine par on the par four eighteenth, the
first playoff hole, Grio put his drive in the right rough,
(01:06):
missed long with his approach shot, hit a sloppy little
pitch that barely made it onto the back fringe, then
couldn't sink his par pot. Campbell was leading late on Sunday.
He relinquished his lead with the double bogie on the
fourteenth hole after blowing his drive out of bounds. But
Campbell made a clutch birdie on the par five seventeenth.
Grio really hurt himself with a sloppy three putt bogie
(01:27):
on the fifteenth hole when he held the lead down
the stretch. Campbell and Grio both finished eighteen under par.
That was ten shots worse than Davis Thompson's winning score
of twenty eight under par last year. TPC Deer Run
was actually playing as tough as I've ever seen a
play on Saturday. The pin positions were really difficult, the
wind was up, of course, was playing firm and fast.
(01:50):
The lowest score on Saturday was sixty six, and normally
you need to shoot sixty six just to keep up
with the competition at the John Deere n David Lipsky
tied for second at seventeen under par, just one shot back.
Max Homa was among six players to finish sixteen under
par two back Bo mentioned Max Homa as an intriguing
(02:12):
play on last week's show. Admittedly I was very skeptical,
but it turned out to be a really good call.
Homa played well. Hopefully he's out of that horrible slump
he's been in for more than a year. But back
to Campbell for a moment. Brian Campbell now has two
wins on the season. He has not finished top thirty
in any other tournament. Apart from the two victories, Brian
(02:35):
Campbell ranks dead last on tour in driving distance. He's
averaging two hundred and seventy six point six yards off
the tee that ranks one hundred and seventy fourth. That
is three point four yards behind the guy who ranks
one hundred and seventy third. So even though Brian Campbell
has taken a lot of money out of my pocket
(02:56):
this year, I don't hate him. I admire him. The
guy is a who's had to spend a lot of
time on the corn ferry tour. Campbell's talked about having
been in a place where he had to reckon with
the possibility of leaving golf and thinking about other career options. So,
as someone who is starting to deal with old man
(03:17):
lost a distance off the tee, I certainly have to
tip my hat to a guy who can win twice
a season while rout routinely watching his playing partners blow
their drives fifty yards past him. Good on you, Brian Campbell.
Bowe your takeaways from the John dere Classic.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, and not only is he not long off the tee,
he's not even accurate off the tea. That's the insane
part about this whole thing is that the two tournaments
that he won this year both had very little to
no penalty for wayward te shots. So yes, he was
very poor off the tea again this week, but he
was so good on approach. His short game was so
(03:52):
locked in, and he made enough putts to win this tournament.
And it just seems like everybody, every time somebody gets
down to the wire with Brian Campbell next to them,
they turned into the worst golf for you've ever seen
in your life. I had tickets with Max Hooma of
course cash the top five and top ten there, but
(04:13):
not enough money to really make it worth your while.
I had a top twenty that cashed on Jackson Coyvin,
but that was only five to one, and then I
ended up adding Kirt Kittiyama as a live bed on
Saturday Night for sixteen to one. And had Kurt kitty
Yama made a three footer on eleven and a four
footer on twelve for Bertie, he would have made five
birdies in a row on his back nine and he
(04:34):
would have been at nineteen at eighteen hunder part he
would have been the playoff. But Kurt Kittiyama missed the
playoff because he missed two very much inside the leather
Birdie putts on eleven and twelve to vanquish him from competition.
And so I don't hate Brian Campbell. In fact, Brian
Campbell is one of the only Southern California golfers that
(04:55):
I actually kind of like now because his main sponsor
on his bag is mcooney, which which is one of
the best sushi places in all of Northern California. My
first time trying sushi ever was out of mccooney in Chico.
So shout out to having a great sponsor. Brian Campbell,
shout out to getting your second win this year. You've
(05:15):
taken a lot of money out of my pocket this
year as well as years pat We're moving on to
the sacred ground, as they call it. But my reaction
from the John Deere was that I'm happy for Brian Campbell,
but I'm very sad that all of these great picks
that we both made were all for not.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Wait, Brian Campbell has the name of a sushi joint
on his bag. Mccooney, Yep, that's awesome. Now. Now that's
when you know a guy is a grinder when he's
got a sushi that's like Jezo's bail bonds.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yeah, and you're just yeah, not just a sushi place,
but a regional northern California sushi chain.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
That's awesome. I am starting to like this guy. So yeah,
we are just one week away from Open Championship Week,
which means we get the Genesis Scottish Open this week.
This tournament is a joint venture between the PGA Tour
and the dp World Tour, and we'll get a pretty
good field, at least a top heavy field maybe not
quite as loaded a field as we've seen in the past.
(06:17):
The middle class is kind of lacking in this one,
but a lot of the big stars are here. Scottie
Scheffler Rory McElroy, both playing the Scottish Open, returns to
the Renaissance Club at North Barrick in eastern Scotland. The
course sits on the coastline of the Firth of Forth,
so weather conditions will be a big factor. The Renaissance
Club was designed by Tom Doak. It is a par
(06:39):
seventy that plays too seven eighty two yards. There are
five par threes on the course, which is rather unusual,
so five par threes and a par seventy stretching out
to almost seventy three hundred yards. There are some long
holes on this one, mainly with the par fours, so
i'll get to that in a second. Sonissance Club offers
(07:01):
many of the elements of links golf. Fairways in Scotland
tend to be very firm, so players are going to
get a lot of runout on their t shots. They
can make it really hard for players to keep their
drives on the fairway. But the fescue rough at the
Renaissance Club not all that punishing for the most parts,
unless you land in a really bad spot. The greens
are big and they tend to run slow, as a
(07:22):
lot of the courses do in Scotland. Bunkers are going
to be more of a factor this week than they
typically are in PGA Tour events. These bunkers are deeper
than you normally see in the States, and sometimes all
you can do is just pop your ball out a
few yards. Short game creativity is going to be important.
We'll see a lot of little bump and run shots
(07:43):
around the greens this week. The Renaissance Club has those
three par fives and they all range from five hundred
and seventy six yards to six hundred yards long. Butt reachable,
especially with the extra role on the fairways, and three
of the par fives measure longer than two hundred yards.
Those holes are going to be murderous if the wind
(08:04):
is not cooperating. The other two are short ones one
hundred and forty seven yards one hundred and sixty one yards.
Five of the par fours measure four hundred and eighty
three yards are longer, but the par four fifth hole
only three hundred and forty seven yards and will invite
players to have a go at the green if the
wind permits. Native scott Robert McIntyre is the defending champion.
(08:27):
He was eighteen under par last year in winning his
home country's national championship in pretty benign conditions for the
most part. McIntyre beat Adam Scott by one stroke. Rory
McElroy won in twenty twenty three, finishing minus fifteen, one
shot better than McIntyre, and in twenty twenty two we
had some weather that year. Bo Xanderschoffley won at seven
(08:49):
under par in very breezy conditions. The weather forecast for
this week's tournament is suitably Scottish. I would say they're
showers in the forecast for the three days of the tournament.
Winds are expected to blow in the ten to fifteen
mile an hour range throughout, but who knows. Scottish weather
is notoriously unpredictable. Bo mcbrar, my Scottish blooded friend, please
(09:13):
share your thoughts on the Genesis Scottish Open and what
it's going to take to win this tune up event
for the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I was just gonna say it. When I checked the
weather earlier today it said that there was sunshine in
the forecast for all four days and highs in the
mid to high fifties to lower sixties with no rain
and no wind in the forecast. Obviously that changes on
a dime. That is, this tournament in a nutshell, this
(09:41):
tournament will be as easy, or if not easier than
the John Dee Classic if the winds stayed down, Because
this golf course is completely defended by the elements you
don't have. You don't have a whole lot of danger
on this golf course per se, except for out of
position bunkering. If you run through the fairway with a
(10:02):
wayward t shot, you're still not going to be out
of position too bad. But if the wind picks up,
if you start to get some gales or squalls as
they call him off that North Sea, then it could
change instantly. We can go automatically back to twenty twenty
two conditions, which brings a whole different golfer into contention.
This is either going to be a birdy fest where
(10:23):
the winner is twenty two twenty three under par, or
it could be single digits depending on the weather. Completely
dependent on the weather, and the one stat that I
can really bank on here is strokes gained around the
green and scrambling because even though there's not a lot
of danger on this course, it's not always easy to navigate.
If you miss the green and the greens are big,
(10:44):
they're slow. It's still going to take some good chipping
and some good around the green creativity finesse just being
able to navigate around link style golf course. This is
more of a parkland hybrid new Veaux links as they
as I call it, where there's not as many on
the on the shoreline ocean holes as you get from
(11:08):
next week at Royal Port Rush or at Saint Andrews
for example. That's pure links. Is all along the coastline
the whole way. This is going to cut inland for
most of the holes, but there are some links elements
to it. Either way, it's still in Scotland. You still
got all the elements that you have to deal with there,
the red fescue grass all the way throughout. It's just
(11:30):
going to come down to whoever adjusts to the weather
the best will win this tournament. Whether it's seven under
par like a few years ago is Xander, or twenty
two under par like a couple of years ago. When
everything was calm and benign.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Yeah, what else do you play up here in your
model ball besides scrambling? Because I wasn't really sure what
to emphasize when I was giving this a first look.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Yeah, so it is in this week. It's a little
bit of a you kind of contradict yourself because as
I want some guys who are prepared for the weather changing,
so all more emphasize scrambling versus just your short gain
or around the green stats. But they're still birdier, better percentage,
there's still bogie avoidance. And basically every week I'm usually
(12:15):
focused on approach or good drives gained. This week I'm
looking at total strokes gained, and i'd look at a
twenty four to thirty six old window. And you can
also fine tune it by link style golf courses. If
you include Renaissance Club as a link style golf course,
so with all the other ROTA courses that they play
over the years, if you go back to the last
(12:36):
twenty four rounds of link style play, that gives you
an idea of which guys are used to this, which
guys excel in this, and maybe which guys we want
to stay away from because maybe it's just not the
style of golf that best suits their game for this week.
It's total strokes gain more of a macro view of
the whole thing. But maybe maybe filtering for the possibility
(12:59):
of weather and for the possibility that link style golf
is different enough to maybe give us an inside edge
on who the best numbers are to bet on, because
again we're not betting on the players, We're betting on
the lines. I want to make sure that we handicap
this correctly, which has gone well for us in the.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Past, and we will give you those lines for the
Genesis Scottish Open in just a moment. Right after Bo
tells you about the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
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Speaker 1 (14:00):
Let's check on the odds for the Genesis Scottish Open.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon.
Scotty Scheffler is plus thirty plus three sixty, Rory McElroy
is plus seven to twenty. Sanders Shoffley is plus two thousand,
Tommy Fleetwood plus twenty two hundred, Colin Morricowa plus twenty
five hundred, Robert mcintyren Ludwig Oberg are plus three thousand.
(14:23):
Justin Thomas is plus thirty five hundred. Sam Burns, Victor
Hovlin and Matt Fitzpatrick are plus four thousand. Corey Connors
is plus forty five hundred, and Sepstraca is plus five thousand.
Only thirteen players with odds of fifty to one or
shorter bow Who do you like from among the favorites.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
It's hard not to like Scotty, but I actually like
Rory McElroy better this week. He's more in tune with
link style golf. In fact, if you go back to
the last twenty four rounds of link style play, he
has the most total strokes gained. In this entire field,
and it's by a long shot. Across the board. Rory
McElroy gains the most strokes s Scotty Scheffler gains the
(15:01):
most on approach. But if we look at the whole bag,
Rory McElroy's king, and right behind him in that department
is Xander Schoffley. So I like both of those guys.
Xander Schoffley getting twenty to one odds this week, love it.
This guy owns leak style golf. He won the Open
Championship last year. He's he's a prior winner of the
Renaissance at the Renaissance Club. Very very underrated at this
(15:25):
opening line of twenty to one. I like Rory at
plus seven to fifty. I love Xander at twenty to one,
and then I think I might get a little Sam
Burns in here because of his short game prowess. Sam
Burns at thirty five to one is is a little short,
but I still want a piece of that.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Burns has played really well of late, top twenty in
each of his last five events and seven of his
last eight. Last play the Scottish Open in twenty twenty three.
He was nineteenth nice that year. Yet We haven't seen
Scotty Scheffler since last month's Travelers Championship where he finished sixth.
Wasn't potting a specially well last time we saw him.
(16:03):
He did not play the Scottish Open last year. He
did play it in twenty twenty three and finished third.
About Rory, bo I kind of feel the same way
you did, Like he won the Scottish in twenty twenty three,
finished fourth last year. He's obviously comfortable at the Renaissance Club.
Rory got off to that incredible start this season winning
the Players Championship. The Masters wasn't a factor if the
(16:27):
PGA or the US Open. We know how much he
would love to win the Open Championship in his native
Northern Ireland. I mean, does this mean that Rory puts
on his game face this week and brings his best
to the Scottish Open. I think there's a chance that's
what we see this week. So yeah, and you mentioned Xander.
I mean he won here in twenty twenty two, finished
(16:48):
top fifteen to three of his last four Scottish Opens.
Hasn't had a top ten finish though since the Masters.
Like that's the one thing that concerns me a little bit.
But as you mentioned, Bo like Xander's obviously really comfortable
with links golf.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
He's comfortable when things get a little bit crazy out
there weatherwise, and his short games as good as it gets,
so I'm not worried about his short game at all.
Rory's distance advantage is huge, and really, if you're betting
plus three sixty on Scotty Scheffler, you're hoping his putting
on link style golf courses get better, because in every
category he gained strokes on the field in link style golf,
(17:24):
except for putting, He's lost four strokes over his last
twenty four rounds on the greens. Maybe it's something he's
not comfortable reading because there's so many little bumps and
bruises and they run really slow. Sky Scheffler excels on smooth,
fast greens, not so much on these slow, bumpy greens
that you're going to see at the Renaissance Club and
next year or next week at Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Now, Tommy Fleetwood probably offers the past combination of recent
form and course fit. He's finished top five and three
of his last six events. Fleet would have finished sixth
or better in three of his last five trips to
the Renaissance Club. But Fleetwood is still looking for his
first PGA Tour victory, and we have not seen him
since that painful loss at the Travelers Championship where he
(18:10):
took a one shot leading to the final hole and
wound up losing. When he's his.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Most recent painful loss.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Right, Yeah, so that that was a bad one, losing
a keg in Bradley in that one.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Plus four hundred to get Tommy Fleetwood top five. Absolutely,
do not bet him to win out.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Right, Yeah, if you're gonna bet him, top five or
top ten seems like the way to go. I feel
like we are getting a really good price on Robert
McIntyre to win. He's Scottish, he won here last year,
he was runner up to Rory two years ago. McIntyre's
finished top twenty and four of his last five events
and almost won the US Open.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
So is Dougie on the day.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
The interesting question I don't know is his dad gonna
caddy for him?
Speaker 2 (18:52):
I don't think it matters, but it'd be great to
see Dougie out there, like just even just walking with Bob.
I just love watching Bobby Mac play. It's like that's
that's that's a fun guy to watch. He's super, super
nice and humble. That's somebody I'll be rooting for. I
don't know if I'll be betting him. Because thirty to
one this you mentioned that the fields strong, but not
(19:13):
overly strong. I think this is the strongest field of
this of the season for a non major because of
the DP World Tour guys that are coming into play
here and in this next tier guys, I'm gonna go
over a couple that maybe aren't on your radar because
they're not playing on the PGA Tour yet they will
be soon. Uh, This this field is extremely strong. Just
because the name brand isn't great outside the top five,
(19:36):
it doesn't mean that this field isn't very stacked.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Yeah, two more guys to ask you about real quick
bo and Justin Thomas is not one of them. He
has missed, missed, caught sixtieth and sixty second as last
three Scottish opens. I think you can just scratch and he's.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
So bad off the tee this season that he just can't.
You can't recover from bad t shots on the PGA Tour.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
Yeah, okay, So ludvig Olberg was fourth Yere last year,
but he missed the cut in his twenty twenty three
Scottish Open debut, missed the cut at last year's Open Championship.
I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him on links
style courses yet, Paul, what about you? Not you either?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
No, he can't ship, so we're not there yet. He's
talented enough to turn it around, but we're not there yet.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Speaking of chipping problems, what about Victor Hovland. He has
not finished better than twenty fifth in two previous Scottish Opens.
Bots He's had some pretty strong performances in the Open
Championship in recent years, not last year when he missed
the cut, but I think he had three straight top
fifteens and one of those was maybe like a fifth
or a sixth at the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
I like him on a pure ball striker's course, but
this isn't one of those. This is like you have
to have the whole bag in, especially with this course,
this field being so strong and diverse. I think you
need to have all the tricks of the trade at
full command to win at the Scottish Bobby Mack last year, obviously,
Rory a couple of years ago and Xander. Those are
(21:04):
all guys who are just locked into the whole bag.
And that take nothing away from Victor Hovelin. He won
the Valspar this year, but that's more of like approach
game paradise, Like if you have great iron play, you
can win the Valspar. If you just have great iron play,
you're not even gonna finish top ten at the Renaissance Club.
The Scottish is about playing all the golf. The entire
(21:25):
bag has to be locked in. It will be the
same next year or next week on just a more
scrutinized bassist in a major situation. But this is everybody's
tune up. This is gonna be everybody's kind of measuring
stick where's my game going into the open. And it's
a big deal. The Scottish is a really big deal
for these guys. That's why there's so many of these
(21:46):
top names in the field ready to get ready for
Northern Ireland next week.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
We will get to the odds on some of the
mid range options in just a moment, but first I'm
going to let Bo tell you about No Vague.
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Speaker 1 (23:06):
Let's look at some more of the odds. Adam Scotts
plus fifty five hundred, Taylor Pendrith, Ryan Fox, Aaron Ryan,
JJ Spahner plus six thousand, Harry Hall, Harris English and
Wyndham Clarker plus sixty five hundred, Tom Kim, Sung JM
and Maverick McNeely are plus seventy five hundred. And then
there's a big group at plus eight thousand that includes
(23:26):
Thomas Deetree, Seawoo, Kim, Daniel Berger, Rasmus Hoyguard, Alex Norin,
Max Grazerman, and Justin Rose. What about this group, bo.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
So, this group is loaded with guys who can win
this tournament, might win this tournament. And unlike last week
where the mid range was off limits, I mean we
had a four hundred to one guy win the tournament
for crying out loud. Yeah, the mid range this week
is the opposite. There's lots of guys that I like here.
Aaron Rye is intriguing, but I just can't stand watching
(23:58):
him play. He plays too slow, plays with two gloves
and iron covers. I can't stand to watch him play.
But he's got a good he's got a good knack
for this place. I'm not sure about Ryan Fox yet,
but his distance is going to be an advantage here
that's intriguing. Harry Hall's where I come every time. Harry Hall,
(24:18):
the Englishman, masterful short game, masterful putter, makes tons and
tons of birdies. So whereas the weather gets nasty, He's
a brit he can handle it. If the weather stays
nice and it becomes a birdie fest, which sometimes happens
here at the Scottish, Harry Hall makes birdies like no other.
I think Harry Hall is worth the full ladder. He's
(24:40):
getting crazy odds for him being in this tier at
all surprises me. I would have put him around thirty
to thirty five to one. The fact that he's in
this mid range means I'm going all the way up
the top and that's where I'm going to put a
lot of my money is on Harry Hall to win
the Scottish.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
Yeah, he has quietly finished top twenty and six straight events,
although his best finish during that stretch was a sixth
at the Charles Schwab Challenge. So maybe that's it that
he hasn't really like seriously contended, But yeah, Hall does
seem to have the game for this place, and you know,
if it's windy, he's gonna have to sixty that riding cap.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
We didn't believe he was sixty to one.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I was kind of remarkable.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
I have one more for you, and this is a
guy who's on the DP World Tour right now at
eighty to one Nearguard Peterson.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeaharguard, So he's down to eighty to one now, Okay,
he was earlier today he was not in that range.
So what do you like about Nearguard Peterson.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
He hits the snot out of the golf ball. He's
one of the longest hitters out there. Very very good
all around player. This is a guy who's going to
be on the PG Tour probably as soon as next year.
Just hammers the golf ball and when it comes to
distance advantage, he makes it count. This guy has made
(25:58):
a lot of opportunities for himself over the last year
and a half. I'm adding on driving distance as we speak,
at a little heavier so I can see how far
he jumps to the top, because he's another Aldrich pot
geater type that just smashes the golf ball. Bet Yeah, go.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Ahead, Oh, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
I was just going to say, getting back to Ryan
Fox for a second. Two wins over the last two
months the one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic in the Canadian Open,
along with three other top twenty finishes. He's been playing really, really,
really well and he has played in the last six
Scottish Opens, dating back to when it was just a
European Tour events. His track record has been pretty unremarkable,
(26:38):
but he did finish twelfth in twenty twenty three. He
knows the place now, so yeah. Adam Scott finished second
at the Renaissance Club last year and has been in
pretty solid form lately, although he hasn't seriously contended for
a title this season. Well, I guess he was contending
for the US Open until he went up in Flames
on Sunday afternoon. Anyone else, but uh.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Yeah, I was just gonna. I was looking up the
stats for Nierguard Peterson on the DP World Tour, and
he's just when it comes to what he's done this year,
it's it's been under the radar, But I think that
he's just he's exactly what we're looking for this week
eighty to one. Everything, all the all the unknowns about
him are baked into that price. I wouldn't be surprised
(27:22):
at all if you finished top ten or even won
the same eighty to one for a guy of his quality,
for a guy that we're going to be speaking his
name on the PG Tour and in major tournaments going forward.
That's that's that's a name to look out for.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
I was surprised to see Tom Kim and odds shorter
than one hundred to one, considering how poorly he's been
playing this season, and uh, you know when when you're
not playing simulator golf, at least on ESPN. But Tom
Kim actually seems to really like the Renaissance Club. In
his last three Scottish Open appearances, he's finished third, sixth,
and fifteenth. So I don't know if that can get
(27:58):
him out of the dol drums. You know, he did
finish in a tie for seventh at the AT and
T Pebble Beach Pro Am long time ago, thirty third
at the US Open. Yeah, I just don't know if
I can back Tom Kim.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Yeah, Tom Kim is on that short list of great
players in the last twenty four rounds on link style golf,
so maybe he just has a knack for link style golf.
But yeah, his form this year has been absolutely terrible,
So I'm with you on that on the fade there.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
He's a links golf and simulator golf specialist. What about
long shots, baw anyone you like it? Ninety to one
or longer?
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Funny you should ask Pat. I have a couple here.
One of them's at one hundred and twenty one and
it's another DP World Tour guy, Marco penge Marco Pengay
is another absolute bomber of the golf ball. He's gonna
be hitting a lot of short clubs into these golf
into these holes. He is also twenty fifth overall and
strokes gained from Tita Green in this field, which is
(28:54):
very noteworthy since we have all of the top five
in the world here. He's got a great short game,
twenty seventh in this field and strokes gained around the Green.
And he's he's just a masher. He's out there taking
advantage of golf courses like this with his distance. One
knock on him is he's not a very good putter,
but overall he's he's gonna be. He's going to be
(29:16):
in positions that'll allow him to get a lot of
birdy opportunities. So if the weather stays okay, I like
Marco penge, but if it gets nasty, I mean it's
one hundred and twenty to one bet. I also like
Matt McCarty at one hundred and seventy to one. We've
been talking about him periodically throughout the year. Kind of
disappointing last week, but I think he's got the game
(29:37):
for this type of tournament. And do you want me
to say my deep, deep shot or do you want
me to save.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
It, go for it? Hit me with the deep one At.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Five hundred to one. David Ford, that's the PGA Tour
university guy from University of North Carolina. He is the
top college golfer in the United States, and five hundred
and one for a guy with his talent, it wouldn't
surprise me if he comes, maybe not at the Open Championship,
but in his first like worldwide tournament this this week
(30:08):
at the Scottish David Ford's got lots and lots of
talent In five hundred and one, I'm willing to see
how he does.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
At two hundred and fifty to one. Could Brian Campbell
beat someone that I'm going to bet this week in.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
A playoff ball, I would say you probably have less
more than a zero chance, but not more than a
one percent chance. So yes, there's always a chance that
the boogeyman Brian Campbell comes out and does it to
us for the third time this year, but I wouldn't
bet on it.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Look the rollout on these hard fairways is going to
help him, and he kind of reminds me of a guy.
I'm gonna mention, who's ninety to one bawl your favorite?
Brian Harmon. This dude just likes links golf. He's won
the Open Championship. He was twelfth at the Scottish Open
in twenty twenty three to twenty first last year. The
lack of distance doesn't kill him because of these, you know,
generous hard fairways that give him extra distance. While he
(31:00):
struggled this year, Harmon did finish eighth in his most
recent event, the Travelers Championship.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
If I consider somebody to be the poor man's Brian Harmon,
how poor does that make you?
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Exactly? That would be Brian Campbell. I guess Brian.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Harmon's a lot better than Brian Campbell, especially on link
style golf courses.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
I'll mention one other long shot real quickly. Andrew Putnam
is one hundred and seventy to one. In his last
three events, He's finished sixth at the Canadian Open, eighth
at the Rock and Mortgage Classic, and then he withdrew
from the John Deere Classic this past Friday with a
back injury. But I wonder how serious the injury was.
Putnam was headed for a miscut and he withdrew immediately
after double bogie on the eighteenth hole at the end
(31:40):
of his first nine holes. The clubhouse was right there,
just saying so. Putnam finished sixth at the twenty nineteen
Scottish Open when it was still a European Tour event.
I think he's kind of intriguing at those long odds,
all right, bo, So who is on your early betting card.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
I have Rory at plus seven to fifty, Xander at
plus two thousand, Sam Burns at plus thirty five hundred,
Harry Hall full ladder on Harry Hall plus six thousand
to win it all, Neerguard Peterson at eighty to one,
and my long shots are Marco Pengate one hundred and
twenty to one, Matt McCarty a one hundred and seventy
to one, and David Ford from the University of North
(32:19):
Carolina plus fifty thousand. That's five hundred buckaroos to one buckaroo.
If he wins this thing somehow, you might want to
just throw on like a top twenty or make the
cut kicker for that guy, because he's way down the board.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
I've got Rory McElroy at plus seven twenty. I got
to find where you've got him at plus seven to fifty. Bow.
Excuse me? Did I say Rory? Yeah, Rory is plus
seven twenty. I've got Robert McIntyre at plus three thousand
and plus five point fifty for a top five. I've
got Brian Harmon at ninety to one. Sorry, Bow. I'm
also going to throw a top ten bat on him
(32:57):
at at plus six hundred. And I think I'm gonna
throw a little something on Andrew Putnam at one hundred
and seventy to one, assuming he's still in the field.
And bo I was saving one spot on my dance
card for one of your favorites, and you've talked me
into Harry Hall, I'm gonna put something on him. Let's
go now for our one and done picks. Bo took
Denny McCarthy last week. He tied for eleventh. Good four,
one hundred and seventy four thousand, three hundred dollars. I
(33:20):
took Michael thorpe Bjornson. He tied for twenty first, good
for ninety one, nine hundred and eighty dollars. Bo's ahead
of me by a little more than half a million dollars.
I am up first this week, Bo, and I am
taking Robert McIntyre. Bobby Mack, how about you?
Speaker 2 (33:37):
So I'm going to use my best judgment and just
take the money and run. I'm gonna take Tommy Fleetwood.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Tommy Fleetwood, hey man, I played him earlier this year
and he got me almost half a million dollars.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I need to I need a half mil out of
Tommy this week, and his his top five and top
ten streak is probably going to stay alive this week.
So I'll play it safe and not expect to win
because he won't. But you never know, he doesn't win
on the United States soil, maybe he can win back
in European soil.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Yeah, you know, he's probably not given you the multi
million dollar victory, but you know he can very well
give you a six.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
If he does. I'm taking full credit.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
And that's going to do it for this week's Betting
PROSPGA podcast. Please come join us again next week when
we will be previewing the final major of the year,
the Open Championship at Royal Port Rush in Northern Ireland.
We can't wait to dig into that one and we
hope you'll come along for the ride until then. So
long everyone, thanks for.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,
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Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,
joined by my tag team partner Bo mcbrair. Today we
have a full betting preview of the Genesis Scottish Open,
because if it's not Scottish, it's crap. Before we get
to that, Bo, I'm going to reluctantly pivot to a
quick recap of the John Deere Classic, where, for the
second time this season, Brian Campbell won a tournament in
(00:22):
a playoff, beating a player on whom I had a ticket.
In late February, Brian Campbell got that first PGA Tour
victory of his career when he beat Aldrich Pottgeater in
a playoff. In that tournament, Campbell sliced his drive on
the second playoff hole. It seemed as if it was
going to go out of bounds, but it struck a tree,
landed in a very playable spot in the rough. It
(00:44):
was a par five. Campbell wound up making birdie on
that hole and it proved to be the winning bertie.
Campbell did not need a friendly tree bounce this time around.
He vanquished my guy, Amiliano Grillo in a playoff at
the John Deere Classic. All Campbell had to do was
make a routine par on the par four eighteenth, the
first playoff hole, Grio put his drive in the right rough,
(01:06):
missed long with his approach shot, hit a sloppy little
pitch that barely made it onto the back fringe, then
couldn't sink his par pot. Campbell was leading late on Sunday.
He relinquished his lead with the double bogie on the
fourteenth hole after blowing his drive out of bounds. But
Campbell made a clutch birdie on the par five seventeenth.
Grio really hurt himself with a sloppy three putt bogie
(01:27):
on the fifteenth hole when he held the lead down
the stretch. Campbell and Grio both finished eighteen under par.
That was ten shots worse than Davis Thompson's winning score
of twenty eight under par last year. TPC Deer Run
was actually playing as tough as I've ever seen a
play on Saturday. The pin positions were really difficult, the
wind was up, of course, was playing firm and fast.
(01:50):
The lowest score on Saturday was sixty six, and normally
you need to shoot sixty six just to keep up
with the competition at the John Deere n David Lipsky
tied for second at seventeen under par, just one shot back.
Max Homa was among six players to finish sixteen under
par two back Bo mentioned Max Homa as an intriguing
(02:12):
play on last week's show. Admittedly I was very skeptical,
but it turned out to be a really good call.
Homa played well. Hopefully he's out of that horrible slump
he's been in for more than a year. But back
to Campbell for a moment. Brian Campbell now has two
wins on the season. He has not finished top thirty
in any other tournament. Apart from the two victories, Brian
(02:35):
Campbell ranks dead last on tour in driving distance. He's
averaging two hundred and seventy six point six yards off
the tee that ranks one hundred and seventy fourth. That
is three point four yards behind the guy who ranks
one hundred and seventy third. So even though Brian Campbell
has taken a lot of money out of my pocket
(02:56):
this year, I don't hate him. I admire him. The
guy is a who's had to spend a lot of
time on the corn ferry tour. Campbell's talked about having
been in a place where he had to reckon with
the possibility of leaving golf and thinking about other career options. So,
as someone who is starting to deal with old man
(03:17):
lost a distance off the tee, I certainly have to
tip my hat to a guy who can win twice
a season while rout routinely watching his playing partners blow
their drives fifty yards past him. Good on you, Brian Campbell.
Bowe your takeaways from the John dere Classic.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, and not only is he not long off the tee,
he's not even accurate off the tea. That's the insane
part about this whole thing is that the two tournaments
that he won this year both had very little to
no penalty for wayward te shots. So yes, he was
very poor off the tea again this week, but he
was so good on approach. His short game was so
(03:52):
locked in, and he made enough putts to win this tournament.
And it just seems like everybody, every time somebody gets
down to the wire with Brian Campbell next to them,
they turned into the worst golf for you've ever seen
in your life. I had tickets with Max Hooma of
course cash the top five and top ten there, but
(04:13):
not enough money to really make it worth your while.
I had a top twenty that cashed on Jackson Coyvin,
but that was only five to one, and then I
ended up adding Kirt Kittiyama as a live bed on
Saturday Night for sixteen to one. And had Kurt kitty
Yama made a three footer on eleven and a four
footer on twelve for Bertie, he would have made five
birdies in a row on his back nine and he
(04:34):
would have been at nineteen at eighteen hunder part he
would have been the playoff. But Kurt Kittiyama missed the
playoff because he missed two very much inside the leather
Birdie putts on eleven and twelve to vanquish him from competition.
And so I don't hate Brian Campbell. In fact, Brian
Campbell is one of the only Southern California golfers that
(04:55):
I actually kind of like now because his main sponsor
on his bag is mcooney, which which is one of
the best sushi places in all of Northern California. My
first time trying sushi ever was out of mccooney in Chico.
So shout out to having a great sponsor. Brian Campbell,
shout out to getting your second win this year. You've
(05:15):
taken a lot of money out of my pocket this
year as well as years pat We're moving on to
the sacred ground, as they call it. But my reaction
from the John Deere was that I'm happy for Brian Campbell,
but I'm very sad that all of these great picks
that we both made were all for not.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Wait, Brian Campbell has the name of a sushi joint
on his bag. Mccooney, Yep, that's awesome. Now. Now that's
when you know a guy is a grinder when he's
got a sushi that's like Jezo's bail bonds.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yeah, and you're just yeah, not just a sushi place,
but a regional northern California sushi chain.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
That's awesome. I am starting to like this guy. So yeah,
we are just one week away from Open Championship Week,
which means we get the Genesis Scottish Open this week.
This tournament is a joint venture between the PGA Tour
and the dp World Tour, and we'll get a pretty
good field, at least a top heavy field maybe not
quite as loaded a field as we've seen in the past.
(06:17):
The middle class is kind of lacking in this one,
but a lot of the big stars are here. Scottie
Scheffler Rory McElroy, both playing the Scottish Open, returns to
the Renaissance Club at North Barrick in eastern Scotland. The
course sits on the coastline of the Firth of Forth,
so weather conditions will be a big factor. The Renaissance
Club was designed by Tom Doak. It is a par
(06:39):
seventy that plays too seven eighty two yards. There are
five par threes on the course, which is rather unusual,
so five par threes and a par seventy stretching out
to almost seventy three hundred yards. There are some long
holes on this one, mainly with the par fours, so
i'll get to that in a second. Sonissance Club offers
(07:01):
many of the elements of links golf. Fairways in Scotland
tend to be very firm, so players are going to
get a lot of runout on their t shots. They
can make it really hard for players to keep their
drives on the fairway. But the fescue rough at the
Renaissance Club not all that punishing for the most parts,
unless you land in a really bad spot. The greens
are big and they tend to run slow, as a
(07:22):
lot of the courses do in Scotland. Bunkers are going
to be more of a factor this week than they
typically are in PGA Tour events. These bunkers are deeper
than you normally see in the States, and sometimes all
you can do is just pop your ball out a
few yards. Short game creativity is going to be important.
We'll see a lot of little bump and run shots
(07:43):
around the greens this week. The Renaissance Club has those
three par fives and they all range from five hundred
and seventy six yards to six hundred yards long. Butt reachable,
especially with the extra role on the fairways, and three
of the par fives measure longer than two hundred yards.
Those holes are going to be murderous if the wind
(08:04):
is not cooperating. The other two are short ones one
hundred and forty seven yards one hundred and sixty one yards.
Five of the par fours measure four hundred and eighty
three yards are longer, but the par four fifth hole
only three hundred and forty seven yards and will invite
players to have a go at the green if the
wind permits. Native scott Robert McIntyre is the defending champion.
(08:27):
He was eighteen under par last year in winning his
home country's national championship in pretty benign conditions for the
most part. McIntyre beat Adam Scott by one stroke. Rory
McElroy won in twenty twenty three, finishing minus fifteen, one
shot better than McIntyre, and in twenty twenty two we
had some weather that year. Bo Xanderschoffley won at seven
(08:49):
under par in very breezy conditions. The weather forecast for
this week's tournament is suitably Scottish. I would say they're
showers in the forecast for the three days of the tournament.
Winds are expected to blow in the ten to fifteen
mile an hour range throughout, but who knows. Scottish weather
is notoriously unpredictable. Bo mcbrar, my Scottish blooded friend, please
(09:13):
share your thoughts on the Genesis Scottish Open and what
it's going to take to win this tune up event
for the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I was just gonna say it. When I checked the
weather earlier today it said that there was sunshine in
the forecast for all four days and highs in the
mid to high fifties to lower sixties with no rain
and no wind in the forecast. Obviously that changes on
a dime. That is, this tournament in a nutshell, this
(09:41):
tournament will be as easy, or if not easier than
the John Dee Classic if the winds stayed down, Because
this golf course is completely defended by the elements you
don't have. You don't have a whole lot of danger
on this golf course per se, except for out of
position bunkering. If you run through the fairway with a
(10:02):
wayward t shot, you're still not going to be out
of position too bad. But if the wind picks up,
if you start to get some gales or squalls as
they call him off that North Sea, then it could
change instantly. We can go automatically back to twenty twenty
two conditions, which brings a whole different golfer into contention.
This is either going to be a birdy fest where
(10:23):
the winner is twenty two twenty three under par, or
it could be single digits depending on the weather. Completely
dependent on the weather, and the one stat that I
can really bank on here is strokes gained around the
green and scrambling because even though there's not a lot
of danger on this course, it's not always easy to navigate.
If you miss the green and the greens are big,
(10:44):
they're slow. It's still going to take some good chipping
and some good around the green creativity finesse just being
able to navigate around link style golf course. This is
more of a parkland hybrid new Veaux links as they
as I call it, where there's not as many on
the on the shoreline ocean holes as you get from
(11:08):
next week at Royal Port Rush or at Saint Andrews
for example. That's pure links. Is all along the coastline
the whole way. This is going to cut inland for
most of the holes, but there are some links elements
to it. Either way, it's still in Scotland. You still
got all the elements that you have to deal with there,
the red fescue grass all the way throughout. It's just
(11:30):
going to come down to whoever adjusts to the weather
the best will win this tournament. Whether it's seven under
par like a few years ago is Xander, or twenty
two under par like a couple of years ago. When
everything was calm and benign.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Yeah, what else do you play up here in your
model ball besides scrambling? Because I wasn't really sure what
to emphasize when I was giving this a first look.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Yeah, so it is in this week. It's a little
bit of a you kind of contradict yourself because as
I want some guys who are prepared for the weather changing,
so all more emphasize scrambling versus just your short gain
or around the green stats. But they're still birdier, better percentage,
there's still bogie avoidance. And basically every week I'm usually
(12:15):
focused on approach or good drives gained. This week I'm
looking at total strokes gained, and i'd look at a
twenty four to thirty six old window. And you can
also fine tune it by link style golf courses. If
you include Renaissance Club as a link style golf course,
so with all the other ROTA courses that they play
over the years, if you go back to the last
(12:36):
twenty four rounds of link style play, that gives you
an idea of which guys are used to this, which
guys excel in this, and maybe which guys we want
to stay away from because maybe it's just not the
style of golf that best suits their game for this week.
It's total strokes gain more of a macro view of
the whole thing. But maybe maybe filtering for the possibility
(12:59):
of weather and for the possibility that link style golf
is different enough to maybe give us an inside edge
on who the best numbers are to bet on, because
again we're not betting on the players, We're betting on
the lines. I want to make sure that we handicap
this correctly, which has gone well for us in the.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Past, and we will give you those lines for the
Genesis Scottish Open in just a moment. Right after Bo
tells you about the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android
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(13:49):
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Speaker 1 (14:00):
Let's check on the odds for the Genesis Scottish Open.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon.
Scotty Scheffler is plus thirty plus three sixty, Rory McElroy
is plus seven to twenty. Sanders Shoffley is plus two thousand,
Tommy Fleetwood plus twenty two hundred, Colin Morricowa plus twenty
five hundred, Robert mcintyren Ludwig Oberg are plus three thousand.
(14:23):
Justin Thomas is plus thirty five hundred. Sam Burns, Victor
Hovlin and Matt Fitzpatrick are plus four thousand. Corey Connors
is plus forty five hundred, and Sepstraca is plus five thousand.
Only thirteen players with odds of fifty to one or
shorter bow Who do you like from among the favorites.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
It's hard not to like Scotty, but I actually like
Rory McElroy better this week. He's more in tune with
link style golf. In fact, if you go back to
the last twenty four rounds of link style play, he
has the most total strokes gained. In this entire field,
and it's by a long shot. Across the board. Rory
McElroy gains the most strokes s Scotty Scheffler gains the
(15:01):
most on approach. But if we look at the whole bag,
Rory McElroy's king, and right behind him in that department
is Xander Schoffley. So I like both of those guys.
Xander Schoffley getting twenty to one odds this week, love it.
This guy owns leak style golf. He won the Open
Championship last year. He's he's a prior winner of the
Renaissance at the Renaissance Club. Very very underrated at this
(15:25):
opening line of twenty to one. I like Rory at
plus seven to fifty. I love Xander at twenty to one,
and then I think I might get a little Sam
Burns in here because of his short game prowess. Sam
Burns at thirty five to one is is a little short,
but I still want a piece of that.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Burns has played really well of late, top twenty in
each of his last five events and seven of his
last eight. Last play the Scottish Open in twenty twenty three.
He was nineteenth nice that year. Yet We haven't seen
Scotty Scheffler since last month's Travelers Championship where he finished sixth.
Wasn't potting a specially well last time we saw him.
(16:03):
He did not play the Scottish Open last year. He
did play it in twenty twenty three and finished third.
About Rory, bo I kind of feel the same way
you did, Like he won the Scottish in twenty twenty three,
finished fourth last year. He's obviously comfortable at the Renaissance Club.
Rory got off to that incredible start this season winning
the Players Championship. The Masters wasn't a factor if the
(16:27):
PGA or the US Open. We know how much he
would love to win the Open Championship in his native
Northern Ireland. I mean, does this mean that Rory puts
on his game face this week and brings his best
to the Scottish Open. I think there's a chance that's
what we see this week. So yeah, and you mentioned Xander.
I mean he won here in twenty twenty two, finished
(16:48):
top fifteen to three of his last four Scottish Opens.
Hasn't had a top ten finish though since the Masters.
Like that's the one thing that concerns me a little bit.
But as you mentioned, Bo like Xander's obviously really comfortable
with links golf.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
He's comfortable when things get a little bit crazy out
there weatherwise, and his short games as good as it gets,
so I'm not worried about his short game at all.
Rory's distance advantage is huge, and really, if you're betting
plus three sixty on Scotty Scheffler, you're hoping his putting
on link style golf courses get better, because in every
category he gained strokes on the field in link style golf,
(17:24):
except for putting, He's lost four strokes over his last
twenty four rounds on the greens. Maybe it's something he's
not comfortable reading because there's so many little bumps and
bruises and they run really slow. Sky Scheffler excels on smooth,
fast greens, not so much on these slow, bumpy greens
that you're going to see at the Renaissance Club and
next year or next week at Royal Port Rush.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Now, Tommy Fleetwood probably offers the past combination of recent
form and course fit. He's finished top five and three
of his last six events. Fleet would have finished sixth
or better in three of his last five trips to
the Renaissance Club. But Fleetwood is still looking for his
first PGA Tour victory, and we have not seen him
since that painful loss at the Travelers Championship where he
(18:10):
took a one shot leading to the final hole and
wound up losing. When he's his.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Most recent painful loss.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Right, Yeah, so that that was a bad one, losing
a keg in Bradley in that one.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Plus four hundred to get Tommy Fleetwood top five. Absolutely,
do not bet him to win out.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Right, Yeah, if you're gonna bet him, top five or
top ten seems like the way to go. I feel
like we are getting a really good price on Robert
McIntyre to win. He's Scottish, he won here last year,
he was runner up to Rory two years ago. McIntyre's
finished top twenty and four of his last five events
and almost won the US Open.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
So is Dougie on the day.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
The interesting question I don't know is his dad gonna
caddy for him?
Speaker 2 (18:52):
I don't think it matters, but it'd be great to
see Dougie out there, like just even just walking with Bob.
I just love watching Bobby Mac play. It's like that's
that's that's a fun guy to watch. He's super, super
nice and humble. That's somebody I'll be rooting for. I
don't know if I'll be betting him. Because thirty to
one this you mentioned that the fields strong, but not
(19:13):
overly strong. I think this is the strongest field of
this of the season for a non major because of
the DP World Tour guys that are coming into play
here and in this next tier guys, I'm gonna go
over a couple that maybe aren't on your radar because
they're not playing on the PGA Tour yet they will
be soon. Uh, This this field is extremely strong. Just
because the name brand isn't great outside the top five,
(19:36):
it doesn't mean that this field isn't very stacked.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Yeah, two more guys to ask you about real quick
bo and Justin Thomas is not one of them. He
has missed, missed, caught sixtieth and sixty second as last
three Scottish opens. I think you can just scratch and he's.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
So bad off the tee this season that he just can't.
You can't recover from bad t shots on the PGA Tour.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
Yeah, okay, So ludvig Olberg was fourth Yere last year,
but he missed the cut in his twenty twenty three
Scottish Open debut, missed the cut at last year's Open Championship.
I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him on links
style courses yet, Paul, what about you? Not you either?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
No, he can't ship, so we're not there yet. He's
talented enough to turn it around, but we're not there yet.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Speaking of chipping problems, what about Victor Hovland. He has
not finished better than twenty fifth in two previous Scottish Opens.
Bots He's had some pretty strong performances in the Open
Championship in recent years, not last year when he missed
the cut, but I think he had three straight top
fifteens and one of those was maybe like a fifth
or a sixth at the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
I like him on a pure ball striker's course, but
this isn't one of those. This is like you have
to have the whole bag in, especially with this course,
this field being so strong and diverse. I think you
need to have all the tricks of the trade at
full command to win at the Scottish Bobby Mack last year, obviously,
Rory a couple of years ago and Xander. Those are
(21:04):
all guys who are just locked into the whole bag.
And that take nothing away from Victor Hovelin. He won
the Valspar this year, but that's more of like approach
game paradise, Like if you have great iron play, you
can win the Valspar. If you just have great iron play,
you're not even gonna finish top ten at the Renaissance Club.
The Scottish is about playing all the golf. The entire
(21:25):
bag has to be locked in. It will be the
same next year or next week on just a more
scrutinized bassist in a major situation. But this is everybody's
tune up. This is gonna be everybody's kind of measuring
stick where's my game going into the open. And it's
a big deal. The Scottish is a really big deal
for these guys. That's why there's so many of these
(21:46):
top names in the field ready to get ready for
Northern Ireland next week.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
We will get to the odds on some of the
mid range options in just a moment, but first I'm
going to let Bo tell you about No Vague.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
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(22:44):
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I think it's fanatic is a really extreme word. He
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Speaker 1 (23:06):
Let's look at some more of the odds. Adam Scotts
plus fifty five hundred, Taylor Pendrith, Ryan Fox, Aaron Ryan,
JJ Spahner plus six thousand, Harry Hall, Harris English and
Wyndham Clarker plus sixty five hundred, Tom Kim, Sung JM
and Maverick McNeely are plus seventy five hundred. And then
there's a big group at plus eight thousand that includes
(23:26):
Thomas Deetree, Seawoo, Kim, Daniel Berger, Rasmus Hoyguard, Alex Norin,
Max Grazerman, and Justin Rose. What about this group, bo.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
So, this group is loaded with guys who can win
this tournament, might win this tournament. And unlike last week
where the mid range was off limits, I mean we
had a four hundred to one guy win the tournament
for crying out loud. Yeah, the mid range this week
is the opposite. There's lots of guys that I like here.
Aaron Rye is intriguing, but I just can't stand watching
(23:58):
him play. He plays too slow, plays with two gloves
and iron covers. I can't stand to watch him play.
But he's got a good he's got a good knack
for this place. I'm not sure about Ryan Fox yet,
but his distance is going to be an advantage here
that's intriguing. Harry Hall's where I come every time. Harry Hall,
(24:18):
the Englishman, masterful short game, masterful putter, makes tons and
tons of birdies. So whereas the weather gets nasty, He's
a brit he can handle it. If the weather stays
nice and it becomes a birdie fest, which sometimes happens
here at the Scottish, Harry Hall makes birdies like no other.
I think Harry Hall is worth the full ladder. He's
(24:40):
getting crazy odds for him being in this tier at
all surprises me. I would have put him around thirty
to thirty five to one. The fact that he's in
this mid range means I'm going all the way up
the top and that's where I'm going to put a
lot of my money is on Harry Hall to win
the Scottish.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
Yeah, he has quietly finished top twenty and six straight events,
although his best finish during that stretch was a sixth
at the Charles Schwab Challenge. So maybe that's it that
he hasn't really like seriously contended, But yeah, Hall does
seem to have the game for this place, and you know,
if it's windy, he's gonna have to sixty that riding cap.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
We didn't believe he was sixty to one.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
I was kind of remarkable.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
I have one more for you, and this is a
guy who's on the DP World Tour right now at
eighty to one Nearguard Peterson.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeaharguard, So he's down to eighty to one now, Okay,
he was earlier today he was not in that range.
So what do you like about Nearguard Peterson.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
He hits the snot out of the golf ball. He's
one of the longest hitters out there. Very very good
all around player. This is a guy who's going to
be on the PG Tour probably as soon as next year.
Just hammers the golf ball and when it comes to
distance advantage, he makes it count. This guy has made
(25:58):
a lot of opportunities for himself over the last year
and a half. I'm adding on driving distance as we speak,
at a little heavier so I can see how far
he jumps to the top, because he's another Aldrich pot
geater type that just smashes the golf ball. Bet Yeah, go.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Ahead, Oh, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
I was just going to say, getting back to Ryan
Fox for a second. Two wins over the last two
months the one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic in the Canadian Open,
along with three other top twenty finishes. He's been playing really, really,
really well and he has played in the last six
Scottish Opens, dating back to when it was just a
European Tour events. His track record has been pretty unremarkable,
(26:38):
but he did finish twelfth in twenty twenty three. He
knows the place now, so yeah. Adam Scott finished second
at the Renaissance Club last year and has been in
pretty solid form lately, although he hasn't seriously contended for
a title this season. Well, I guess he was contending
for the US Open until he went up in Flames
on Sunday afternoon. Anyone else, but uh.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Yeah, I was just gonna. I was looking up the
stats for Nierguard Peterson on the DP World Tour, and
he's just when it comes to what he's done this year,
it's it's been under the radar, But I think that
he's just he's exactly what we're looking for this week
eighty to one. Everything, all the all the unknowns about
him are baked into that price. I wouldn't be surprised
(27:22):
at all if you finished top ten or even won
the same eighty to one for a guy of his quality,
for a guy that we're going to be speaking his
name on the PG Tour and in major tournaments going forward.
That's that's that's a name to look out for.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
I was surprised to see Tom Kim and odds shorter
than one hundred to one, considering how poorly he's been
playing this season, and uh, you know when when you're
not playing simulator golf, at least on ESPN. But Tom
Kim actually seems to really like the Renaissance Club. In
his last three Scottish Open appearances, he's finished third, sixth,
and fifteenth. So I don't know if that can get
(27:58):
him out of the dol drums. You know, he did
finish in a tie for seventh at the AT and
T Pebble Beach Pro Am long time ago, thirty third
at the US Open. Yeah, I just don't know if
I can back Tom Kim.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Yeah, Tom Kim is on that short list of great
players in the last twenty four rounds on link style golf,
so maybe he just has a knack for link style golf.
But yeah, his form this year has been absolutely terrible,
So I'm with you on that on the fade there.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
He's a links golf and simulator golf specialist. What about
long shots, baw anyone you like it? Ninety to one
or longer?
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Funny you should ask Pat. I have a couple here.
One of them's at one hundred and twenty one and
it's another DP World Tour guy, Marco penge Marco Pengay
is another absolute bomber of the golf ball. He's gonna
be hitting a lot of short clubs into these golf
into these holes. He is also twenty fifth overall and
strokes gained from Tita Green in this field, which is
(28:54):
very noteworthy since we have all of the top five
in the world here. He's got a great short game,
twenty seventh in this field and strokes gained around the Green.
And he's he's just a masher. He's out there taking
advantage of golf courses like this with his distance. One
knock on him is he's not a very good putter,
but overall he's he's gonna be. He's going to be
(29:16):
in positions that'll allow him to get a lot of
birdy opportunities. So if the weather stays okay, I like
Marco penge, but if it gets nasty, I mean it's
one hundred and twenty to one bet. I also like
Matt McCarty at one hundred and seventy to one. We've
been talking about him periodically throughout the year. Kind of
disappointing last week, but I think he's got the game
(29:37):
for this type of tournament. And do you want me
to say my deep, deep shot or do you want
me to save.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
It, go for it? Hit me with the deep one At.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Five hundred to one. David Ford, that's the PGA Tour
university guy from University of North Carolina. He is the
top college golfer in the United States, and five hundred
and one for a guy with his talent, it wouldn't
surprise me if he comes, maybe not at the Open Championship,
but in his first like worldwide tournament this this week
(30:08):
at the Scottish David Ford's got lots and lots of
talent In five hundred and one, I'm willing to see
how he does.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
At two hundred and fifty to one. Could Brian Campbell
beat someone that I'm going to bet this week in.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
A playoff ball, I would say you probably have less
more than a zero chance, but not more than a
one percent chance. So yes, there's always a chance that
the boogeyman Brian Campbell comes out and does it to
us for the third time this year, but I wouldn't
bet on it.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Look the rollout on these hard fairways is going to
help him, and he kind of reminds me of a guy.
I'm gonna mention, who's ninety to one bawl your favorite?
Brian Harmon. This dude just likes links golf. He's won
the Open Championship. He was twelfth at the Scottish Open
in twenty twenty three to twenty first last year. The
lack of distance doesn't kill him because of these, you know,
generous hard fairways that give him extra distance. While he
(31:00):
struggled this year, Harmon did finish eighth in his most
recent event, the Travelers Championship.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
If I consider somebody to be the poor man's Brian Harmon,
how poor does that make you?
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Exactly? That would be Brian Campbell. I guess Brian.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Harmon's a lot better than Brian Campbell, especially on link
style golf courses.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
I'll mention one other long shot real quickly. Andrew Putnam
is one hundred and seventy to one. In his last
three events, He's finished sixth at the Canadian Open, eighth
at the Rock and Mortgage Classic, and then he withdrew
from the John Deere Classic this past Friday with a
back injury. But I wonder how serious the injury was.
Putnam was headed for a miscut and he withdrew immediately
after double bogie on the eighteenth hole at the end
(31:40):
of his first nine holes. The clubhouse was right there,
just saying so. Putnam finished sixth at the twenty nineteen
Scottish Open when it was still a European Tour event.
I think he's kind of intriguing at those long odds,
all right, bo, So who is on your early betting card.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
I have Rory at plus seven to fifty, Xander at
plus two thousand, Sam Burns at plus thirty five hundred,
Harry Hall full ladder on Harry Hall plus six thousand
to win it all, Neerguard Peterson at eighty to one,
and my long shots are Marco Pengate one hundred and
twenty to one, Matt McCarty a one hundred and seventy
to one, and David Ford from the University of North
(32:19):
Carolina plus fifty thousand. That's five hundred buckaroos to one buckaroo.
If he wins this thing somehow, you might want to
just throw on like a top twenty or make the
cut kicker for that guy, because he's way down the board.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
I've got Rory McElroy at plus seven twenty. I got
to find where you've got him at plus seven to fifty. Bow.
Excuse me? Did I say Rory? Yeah, Rory is plus
seven twenty. I've got Robert McIntyre at plus three thousand
and plus five point fifty for a top five. I've
got Brian Harmon at ninety to one. Sorry, Bow. I'm
also going to throw a top ten bat on him
(32:57):
at at plus six hundred. And I think I'm gonna
throw a little something on Andrew Putnam at one hundred
and seventy to one, assuming he's still in the field.
And bo I was saving one spot on my dance
card for one of your favorites, and you've talked me
into Harry Hall, I'm gonna put something on him. Let's
go now for our one and done picks. Bo took
Denny McCarthy last week. He tied for eleventh. Good four,
one hundred and seventy four thousand, three hundred dollars. I
(33:20):
took Michael thorpe Bjornson. He tied for twenty first, good
for ninety one, nine hundred and eighty dollars. Bo's ahead
of me by a little more than half a million dollars.
I am up first this week, Bo, and I am
taking Robert McIntyre. Bobby Mack, how about you?
Speaker 2 (33:37):
So I'm going to use my best judgment and just
take the money and run. I'm gonna take Tommy Fleetwood.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Tommy Fleetwood, hey man, I played him earlier this year
and he got me almost half a million dollars.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I need to I need a half mil out of
Tommy this week, and his his top five and top
ten streak is probably going to stay alive this week.
So I'll play it safe and not expect to win
because he won't. But you never know, he doesn't win
on the United States soil, maybe he can win back
in European soil.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Yeah, you know, he's probably not given you the multi
million dollar victory, but you know he can very well
give you a six.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
If he does. I'm taking full credit.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
And that's going to do it for this week's Betting
PROSPGA podcast. Please come join us again next week when
we will be previewing the final major of the year,
the Open Championship at Royal Port Rush in Northern Ireland.
We can't wait to dig into that one and we
hope you'll come along for the ride until then. So
long everyone, thanks for.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,
the best freeway to support us is by leaving a
positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on
x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting
Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
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