June 10, 2025 • 39 mins
Put the pedal down in Pittsburgh; Join Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer for their top 2025 U.S. Open picks and predictions!
Can Rory McIlroy (+1200) rebound after a difficult outing up north? Does Jon Rahm (+1200) have what it takes to break par at Oakmont Country Club? Plus, what makes Akshay Bhatia (+15000) an intriguing longshot to win his first Major?
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections. Plus, we reveal our one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
RBC Canadian Open Recap - 0:00:34
BettingPros App - 0:04:01
Oakmont Country Club Preview - 0:04:43
Novig - 0:11:02
The Favorites - 0:12:19
The Mid-Range Plays - 0:26:15
The Longshots - 0:32:19
Betting Cards Review - 0:34:56
One-&-Done Selections - 0:36:46
Outro - 0:38:38
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting pros PGA AT Podcast. I'm Pat
Fitzmorris joined by Bau mcbrear. It's US Open week and
the US Open is returning to perhaps the most classic
of all US Open venues, Oakmont's Country Club in western Pennsylvania.
Bo and I are here to give you a full
betting preview from the third major of the year. We'll
talk about Oakmont, we'll talk about the odds. We'll talk
(00:23):
about what sort of form the top players are in
and whether their games are suited to tame o. Come on,
if that's possible, We'll tell you who we're betting this week,
and we will make one and done picks at the
end of the show. First, we'll quickly recap the Canadian Open.
Ryan Fox wins his second tournament of twenty twenty five.
The New Zealander won a marathon sudden death playoff against
Sam Burns, clinching it with a birdie on the fourth
(00:46):
playoff hole. Burns went out early on Sunday and posted
in eight under par sixty two that got him to
eighteen under par. Then he waited for nearly two hours
to see if anyone could catch him. Several players tried
but failed Cameron Young, Kevin ben On and others, but
on the final hole of regulation, Ryan Fox rolled in
a seventeen footer to get to eighteen under par and
(01:08):
force a playoff. Fox's putt barely snuck in on the
low side of the hole. Then Burns and Fox replayed
the par five eighteenth hole three times without breaking the tie.
Both players made pars on the first three playoff holes.
Fox would later refer to the first three playoff holes
as a pillow fight, with neither player stepping up to
take charge. Tournament officials actually changed the whole location during
(01:32):
the playoff, giving the two players a more accessible pin
that didn't require as dangerous an approach shot over the
pond fronting the green. On the fourth playoff all Burns
and Fox both went forward in two. Fox hit his
approach shot to about seven feet, Burns hit his to
about forty feet. Burns then rased his eagle putt ten
feet past the hole. Then he lipped out the ten
(01:53):
footer for birdie that gave Fox two putts from seven
feet for a win. He now his two titles in
PGA Tour career, and they both come this year. Fox
also won last month's one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic, which
also ended up in a playoff. Fox chipped in to
win a three man playoff in that one bo Fox
made me a little bit of money yesterday at a
(02:16):
couple of bucks on him at eighty to one. One
other note from the Canadian Open. Two time Canadian Open
Chip Rory McElroy was in the field. He finished nine
over par and missed the cut by twelve strokes. Yikes,
not great, not great, not great going into a major.
But what did you make of Ryan Fox's victory? And
what do you think about the new Canadian Open host
(02:37):
course TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Well, I mean they're going to go back to another
course road after next year. Actually they're going to repeat
Austra Valley next year. And it was pure bomb and gouge,
Like the top of leaderboard was a who's who have
bomb and prey type players because there was no penal
ref there no, there were no penalties ever for any
wayward shots the whole week, and I'm surprised it was
(03:02):
only eighteen under. Some of the guys were having a
trouble putting on the greens, but it seemed like they
were the guys who avoided three putts were the ones
that scored the best. But it was a lot of
bombers and a lot of guys with hot putters. Ryan
Fox not normally known for a short game, especially as putting,
but he came through with one of the longer hitters
(03:23):
out there and remarkably consistent through the week. Sam burns
Is sixty two on Sunday was impressive though. That's a
really really good score even on an easier golf course,
especially when he was done way early. I was kind
of rooting for Burnsy, but I didn't really have a
horse in the fight. I didn't place anybody on that week.
(03:45):
Luckily didn't bet too much because I was saving myself
for the US Open.
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Yes, I've heard it's a big tournaments, and especially big
going back to Oakmont. You know, some of the new
courses are nice, the LA Country Club and such, but
I like the classics and we will turn our full
attention to the US Open in just a moment.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
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Speaker 1 (04:42):
So you have It's back to Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania,
which is in western Pennsylvania about fourteen miles northeast of Pittsburgh.
Oakmont opened in nineteen oh four and was designed by
Henry Follins, the only course Founds ever designed, and it
really is a class qu us up in course. This
will be the tenth time Oakmont has hosted Yes Vintage
(05:06):
for sure, no other course has hosted it as many
times as Oakmont, and Oakmont is really unique. It has
no water hazards, just a couple of deep drainage ditches
that are considered water hazards with regard to the rules.
Oakmont was originally built as a Lynx course. They added
trees in the fifties and sixties, but the trees were
mostly removed in the two thousands. Oakmont is known for
(05:30):
its blazing fast poa greens. Putting on Oakmont's greens is
like putting on a marble floor, and there are a
lot of slopes to these greens too, so if you've
got a downhill pot, good luck with that. Oakmont is
also famous for its church pews bunker, which splits the
third and fourth holes. It's one hundred yards long and
has rows of grass strips in the sand, very iconic.
(05:52):
The course will plays a parse seventy measuring seven three
hundred and seventy two yards. It's a long course, but
not insanely long US Open standards. However, some of the
individual holes are insanely long. The two par fives are
both longer than six hundred yards. The twelfth hole will
play two six hundred and thirty two yards. It actually
played at six eighty four yards back in twenty sixteen.
(06:17):
It is ridiculous. The eighth hole is a par three
measuring two hundred and eighty nine yards, and two of
the par fours on the back nine measure over five
hundred yards. There are also a couple of short holes.
Number two is a three hundred and sixty four yard
par four, and number seventeen is a par four measuring
three hundred and twelve yards, but it's a blind, uphill
t shot to a green guarded by five very deep bunkers.
(06:42):
The fairways at Oakmont they're going to be tight, the
roughest five inch thick Kentucky bluegrass, and if you find
one of the fairway bunkers, you might not have a
chance to hit the green with your approach shot. You
might just have to come out sideways. Driving accuracy is
going to be very critical this week. It's on a
very let's say not flat patch of land Oakmont is,
(07:06):
so players are going to get all sorts of side
hill downhill lies with their even with the balls they
hit under the fairway and back to those greens, not
only are they fast, but they are huge. So lag
putting is going to be important this week. In short,
we're in for a wild ride, and the winning score
might not be under par. In two thousand and seven,
(07:30):
on Hell Cabrera won the US Open at Oakmont with
a winning score of plus five. The cut line was
The cut line was plus ten that year, and when
the US Open was last played at Oakmont in twenty sixteen,
Dustin Johnson finished four under part to win by three
strokes over Shane Lowry, Jim Furick, Scott Pearcy. They were
(07:51):
the only four players to finish under par. The cut
line that year was plus six. So all of this
makes Johnny Miller's final round sixty three at oak in
nineteen seventy three looked pretty good. And yes, Oakmann was
still a butt kicker back then. Bryce Indy Schambeau is
the defending US Open champion, although he won at Pinehurst
number two last year. The weather forecast this week calls
(08:14):
for temperatures in the low to mid eighties on Thursday
and Friday, with mild winds in the five to ten
mile an hour range. Saturday's thunderstorms in the forecast along
with slightly cooler temperatures in the seventies. There's also rain
in the forecast for Sunday as well. The wind should
be light on the weekend to five to ten miles
an hour. Bo give me your thoughts on Oakmont Country Club.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
It's the quintessential US Open golf course. The US Open
is my favorite tournament to watch every year. Father's Day
weekend every year it's always set up by the USGA
to be brutally difficult. I love carnage. I love Oakmont
carnage because it's carnage without a long golf course. This
(08:57):
is a traditional It's a treeless, waterless golf course that says, hey,
hit in the fairway or you're screwed, and then hit
the green or you're screwed. And even if you do
both of those things, you might still be screwed. On
these greens. They're gigantic run. They're gonna be running a
fourteen or fifteen on the stip meter, which is as
(09:18):
fast as you're ever going to see on the PGA tour,
and they're used to seeing twelve and thirteens pretty much
every week. Fifteen on the stimp means that they hold
it at a forty five degree angle. They let it
roll down the little one foot ramp and it rolls
out fifteen inches to a twelve inch drop. That means
it's gonna be lightning fast, like I'm putting on the
(09:38):
hood of a Volkswagen. It's gonna be It's just it's
gonna be fun to watch the best players in the
world start to whine and cry about the tough conditions. Boomoo, yeah,
I love it. I want to see the winning score
way over par. I want to see the cut line
to be plus fifteen. I want it to be the
(09:59):
hardest US Open up all time. I want to see
all of these guys cry. I want to see Scotti
Scheffler throw clubs again. I want to see John rom
maybe completely combust from from his anger. I want to
see all of these things happen, and at the end,
I want to see the guy who comes out with
most of his limbs intact holding that trophy. H Oakmont,
(10:20):
bring it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I'll be honest. This is my third favorite major, behind
the Masters and the Open Championship. But bo when they
play at a classic venue like oak Mott's or Winged Foot,
then the US Open becomes, in my estimation, the equal
of those other tournaments. Pinehurst number two even. But you know,
(10:43):
it's just I didn't love the La Country Club. I
certainly didn't love Aaron Hills in Wisconsin, which I actually attended,
and I thought that was a pretty weak US Open venue.
Didn't help that.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
The win can all be pebble beats exactly.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Yeah, give me Pebble, give me Oakmont give me winged
so we will get to the US Open odds in
just a moment. Right after Bo tells you about no Vig, are.
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Speaker 1 (12:07):
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Speaker 2 (12:13):
Yeah, he's but he's a braggart about it too. So yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Now for the US Open odds. All odds are courtesy
of DraftKings as of Monday. Some of these odds may
have changed by the time you consume this show. Scotty
Shuffler opens as a heavy favorite. No surprise there. He's
plus two seventy five. Bryson Deshamba is plus seven fifty.
Rory McElroy and John ramerre plus twelve hundred, Xander Schoffley
is plus twenty two hundred, Kala Morricaw was plus twenty
(12:41):
five hundred, Joaquin Neeman and Ludwig Oberg are plus three thousand,
Tommy Fleetwood is plus thirty five hundred, Justin Thomas's plus
four thousand, and Tyrol Hatton and Shane Lowry are plus
forty five hundred. Let's talk about the favorites. Bo Being
cautious with Scotty hasn't worked for us lately, and and
one time in the last month that I bet him
(13:03):
out right before the tournament, he didn't win, so are you?
Speaker 2 (13:06):
And that was the only time he didn't win.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
Literally the only time in the last month he hasn't
won when I bet him before the tournament. Are you
interested in taking him at plus two seventy five?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Absolutely not. And yeah, I'm still gonna keep fading the
odds on Scotty. We love Scotty. I don't have anything
bad to say about him, but the books are taking
us all for suckers. They expect Scotty Scheffler to get
a lot of money in on the books and it's
just a money a numbers game. They don't have to
pay very much if Scotty wins. They hope Scotty wins
(13:41):
because as much as money as you're gonna get on
people betting plus two to seventy, you're gonna get even
more money on people at longer odds that have no
chance to win. And Scotti Scheffler, if he wins plus
two to seventy that they're paying nothing out unless you
want to parlay Scotty with something else a little bit
sure of bet Like let's say you're an you want
to bet on the Pacers to win Game three, or
(14:03):
you want to bet on the thunder to win Game three.
Parlay that with Scottie Scheffler's plus two seventy, you might
get some a little bit banging for your buck. That's
better than the straight up odds that I wouldn't touch
with a ten foot poll. I'm going to start my
book my betting at Rory McElroy plus seven fifty. Yeah,
it's risky. We saw him play last week. He played
(14:24):
his worst tournament of his career. He had his worst
strokes gained rounds, the two worst strokes gains rounds since
twenty thirteen when he was a teenager. That should tell
you all you need to know about scott where Rory's
head was last week, in a preparation week for the
US Open, he committed to the Canadian Open early. He
stuck with it instead of going to the Memorial. He
(14:47):
played terribly. His mind wasn't in it. He was looking
ahead to Oakmont. I'm going to take that at face
value and say that Rory is still a great fit
for this golf course and still very live to win
and gonna give us much better odds of paying off
at the plus seven to fifty line.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
And now he's plus twelve hundred bo. He drifted big time.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
After I gotta check this out again.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Yes, so he drifted severely to plus twelve hundred after
the bad showing at the Canadian Open. My one issue
with Rory so obviously terrific season so far, wins at
the at and T Pebble Beach Proram Players Championship, the Masters,
but he was forty seventh at the PGA Championship. The
tune up at the Canadian Open was a disaster. I
(15:33):
just wonder bo if he is in this postmaster's hangover,
and I feel like he'll come out of it. He'll
take some advil, get some greasy food in his stomach,
be ready when the Open Championship goes to Northern Ireland
and Royal Port Rush, Like, I've no doubt he's going
to be ready for that. Is he ready for this
(15:54):
this week? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I mean yet plus twelve hundred, I'm even more in
than I was a plus seven fifty. I just looked
at the wrong line. I guess I went cross. I'd
looking at the odds just a minute ago, because he is,
in fact at plus twelve hundred and now I'm even
more in love with him.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Yeah, Like I wouldn't even think about it at plus
seven to fifty at plus twelve hundred, I can understand
why someone would have won up pounce on that. As
for Scottie, what's the one major he hasn't won so far? Ooh,
I mean like that's not a.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Really open championship.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Oh yeah, but he's not won a US Open.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Correct, He's only won a PGA and that was up
until this year. He'd only won the two Green jackets.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
So I forgot he had not won an Open championship either. Yeah,
he finished second in twenty twenty two at the country Club.
He's finished top ten at the US Open three of
the last four years, although he did finish a disappointing
forty first at Pinehurst last year. But yeah, plus two
seventy saying.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Just saying this is this is Oakmont. This is gonna
be where we're looking at a lot of different stats
like boge avoidance, double bogie avoidance. And even though Scotty's
number one in my model, he's seventieth in putting, he's
actually one hundredth in the proximity bucket I'm looking at
and fortieth and three putt avoidance, which is going to
be paramount with these gigantic, super fast greens where we've
(17:19):
seen Scotty struggle putting are on the really fast greens,
so I think there's something there. Obviously, if he wins,
nobody's going to be surprised, including you and I. But
when he come down to the very next people in
my model, it's guys like Rory McElroy and John ram
at plus fourteen hundred, Like John, Rom's been playing great
golf the last month, a lot better than Rory.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Actually, yeah, so Rom. He was an amateur when he
played the twenty sixteen US Open at Oakmont. Rom tied
for twenty third that year with a very respectable score
of plus six. It was obviously encouraging to see him
play so well at the PGA. I just I can't
get on board with him at twelve to one odds, Bow,
I feel like that's right now four All right, Well,
(18:02):
I'm getting a little more interested.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Okay, twelve On some books, I'm looking at two right now.
One's twelve, one's fourteen. Uh yeah, I'm with you. It's
it's kind of teetering there on a decent line. I
just think he's a great fit for the course.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So Rory's odds are drifting. Ramz odds are drifting. Bryson
d Chambeau's odds are tightening up. Unfortunately, he was at
plus twelve hundred last week. I'm kind of kicking myself
for not taking him when I could have gotten that number,
and now he's plus seven to fifty. He's finished top
five in each of his last six events. That's four
(18:36):
live tour events and the two majors of the year.
Fifth of the Masters, second at the PGA. Bryson has
finished top six in five of the last six majors.
Bo Can Bryson overpower Oakmont.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
No, Oakmont is un overpowerable. That's not a word, but
it is. For all intents and purposes. Bomb and gouge
is you get half of that here. It does help
to vomit. But if you're not in these fairways, then
you have no chance at reaching the green, no matter
how far down there you are none. If you're in
(19:10):
a fairway bunker or in that five inch Kentucky blue rests,
you are not going to reach the green, whether your
wrists are made of iron or not. So Bryson, if
he hits those fairways and he's down there three fifty
four hundred yards, absolutely can win. This tournament. Rory McElroy,
same thing. These guys that have that advantage, that advantage
is completely null and void if you're not in the fairway.
(19:31):
And these fairways are tight. So yes, we need guys
who are long and straight, because gouging it out is
not going to be towards the green in any fashion.
Gouging it out is going to be trying to get
it back into the short grass so you can scramble
to make par or even bogie on some of these holes.
Bogie is a very good score.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
All right. Let's talk about Xander Schaffley a plus twenty
two hundred and Colin Moore kawat plus twenty five hundred.
So Xander has played eight US Opens in his career
and has placed top ten in all but one of them.
His worst finish in a US Open a tie for fourteenth.
But Schoffley hasn't exactly been challenging for wins lately. Not
(20:12):
that he's been in bad form, just not really contending.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
He's the quintessential grinder. He and Colin are polar opposites.
You'd say, oh, Colin looks good on this course, because
obviously fairways and greens are huge here. But Xander is
the grinder. Xander is the guy who can miss some
fairways and miss some greens and get out of it
unscathed compared to the other people in this field. If
Colin's game is on, he can win. But if his
(20:39):
game is off, he's got no chance. Xander could be
at eighty five percent form and still win this thing
because he's just got that firepower, that grinded out mentality.
I think that it's a fragile footing to bet on
Colin Morikawa, but he does have a good chance, especially
at plus twenty five hundred Xander plus twenty two hundred.
(20:59):
That is so tempting because the tougher the course gets,
the more he kind of rises to the top. Anyway,
That's why his record at the US Open is so good,
is because when things get really nasty, Xander Shaffley is
a dog like that. Guy does not buckle down under pressure.
He just focuses harder and he makes it happen. So
(21:22):
gimme Colin because the numbers a little better, and we've
seen Colin play progressively better this season and Xander's kind
of idling, So I'll take Colin. But if Colin gets
off to a bad start, you can pretty much write
him off because he's not going to have the mental
fortitude to recover from a bad day or even a
(21:43):
bad hole.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Yeah, Statistically he's a great fifth though rank second and
tour driving accuracy, one of the best iron players in
the world. He's sixth in strokes gain and approach. But yeah,
Morikawa hasn't really contended in any event since the Arnold
Palmer Invitational in March. Now you want to talk about
coming into a tournament hot bo well, key Neieman just
(22:05):
won his fourth live event of the year and had
his best finish ever in a major at last month's PGA,
finishing eighth and oh by the way, and winning this
live event, he just routinely fired a sixty three on
Sunday to come from behind. So yeah, Neiman hasn't made
a lot of noise at majors.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
But not bad for a third round score.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Yeah, exactly, only three rounds in the event, So still
pretty impressive.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
Jab, But I'm also laughing because it's still a legit
golf tournament with a very legit competition.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
Yes, and now liveviig Oberg is starting to show signs
of life after going quiet Following this year's Masters, he
finished sixteenth at the Memorial and thirteenth at the Canadian Open.
What do you think of Nieman and Oberg?
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Nieman more than ober Oberg's short game still worries me.
His short approach very much worries me. This is a
this is another. It's very similar to Markawa, where from
tee to green you don't really worry about Oberg. But
if one little thing is off kilter on a golf
course like this that has so many penalty areas or
(23:12):
just punishing wayward shots on the scorecard, Ludvig Oberg is
not good at avoiding double bogies. He's good at avoiding bogies,
but there's a difference there. Oakmont like a regular run
of the Mills Tour, like last week RBC Canadian Open,
I waited bogey avoidance and didn't even think about double
bogie avoidance this course, I'm actually weighing both of them
(23:35):
because they're two completely different metrics. It's like there's there's
avoiding a quote unquote bad score, and then there's avoiding
the the cataclysmic score, which is around every little corner
and nook and cranny. At Oakmont, no trees, no water,
you still have no outs if you're if you're off
(23:55):
one shot, you were gonna it's gonna cost you to
and Ludwig Obert sixty fourth in this field in double
bogie avoidance. Joaquin Neeman not a lot of data to
go with because he's playing a lot fewer rounds. But
what bugs me about Nieman the most is he's just
not good on approach. Everything about his game says if
(24:19):
you're saying, oh, I'm good off the tee tee de green,
he's eighth, fourteenth and bogie avoidance. He's not good in
double bogie avoidance either. Fifty sixth, one hundred and fourth
and scrambling, which parlay is with one fifty seventh in
proximity at one fifty an in and we're gonna have
a lot of short approach shots, honestly, because this course
(24:39):
is long average length, you're gonna have a lot of
short approach shots when you're in the fairway. And he's
dead last in both of those those little proximity buckets.
So Nieman better be good on short iron approach, and
he'd betta be really good dialed in better than ever
at avoiding blow up Poles, because because all those majors
(25:01):
until the last major he was in where he was
finishing eighth, he had never finished better than thirtieth in
any major until then because he always had either one
bad day or two or three really bad holes and
he was out of contention. Great player, I don't know
that he has what it takes to win a US Open.
(25:22):
It's for me, it's just way too short for a
guy who's shown no propensity at all, is in his
very long career to do well in majors up until
the PGA.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Yeah, not that long. Still in his twenties, right, so he's.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Still young, but he's been playing a long time.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Yes, Now one more got to mention from this group.
It should be noted that Shane Lowry was the fifty
four hole leader when the US Opened was last played
at Oakmont in twenty sixteen. Unfortunately, he went six over
par on Sunday and finished three shots behind winter Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
I just and guess who I bet on that week?
Speaker 1 (25:57):
Lowry? Oh? Yeah, I mean, I just like, he's just
not made for Sunday at majors, and he just I
don't know if he can pot well enough to contend.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I'm still betting him at fifty to one though.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Really interesting. Yes, yes, all right, let's run through more
of the odds. We have Stepstraka at plus five thousand,
Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Kopka at plus fifty five hundred,
Corey Connors and Victor Hovlin at plus six thousand, Russell
Henley at plus sixty five hundred, Ben Griffin, Jordan Speith
and Hideki Matsuyam at plus seven thousand. Sam Burns is
(26:32):
plus eight thousand, and at one hundred and one odds
are Daniel Berger, Aaron Raie, Tony Fino, Patrick Reed, Keegan
Bradley and Harris English. Does anyone stand out from this group?
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Bo Sammy ballgame should have won the Canadian Open. He
is a dog. Three pet avoidance, bogie avoidance, double bogie avoidance,
pretty accurate off the tee and right now, right this
minute approach not that bad. If Sam Burns can get
near the hole on some approach shots this week, he's
(27:06):
gonna be live. And with his putting stroke, his short game,
his recovery game. Sam Burns at ninety to one, right now,
that's pretty darn good. I think I'll take that. That's
a guy who can get hot, very good grinder, just
at avoiding those big blow up holes. His approach game
is his weak spot. But at the same time, I'm
(27:28):
not too worried about it because he's number one in
both putting metrics and strokes game putting on fast greens
and number one and three put avoidance fourteenth and scrambling,
and that's it's just everything I'm looking at with Sam Burns.
The only thing that scares me is approach, and lately
it's been better. I love that number. I love the
way he's coming into this tournament a little bit of
(27:50):
little anger because he had many chances to win that
tournament on Sunday and just didn't quite have enough in
the playoff holes to beat Ryan Fox, which I thought
was I couldn't believe it. I was so blown away
by all the chances that Burns had to vanquish Fox.
The key we just kept slipping through the cracks with
(28:10):
terrible pars on that part five hole, and Burns just
couldn't get out of his own way. I think Burns
is a live bet to win the same at ninety
to one and Keegan Bradley hundred to one. Long Irons
short Irons grinded out mentality Captain America himself, I got,
I gotta, I go with my guy Keegan Bradley. That's
(28:30):
that's so much fun to look at those odds and say, hey,
that's a guy who's fun to root for.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Their games are sort of polar opposite in a way.
Burns are just not that great tea to Green but
maybe the best putter in the world, at least at
the moment. And by the way, Burns did finish ninth
in last year's US Open at Pinehurst. Yeah, so he
seems like he's made for this. And as you said,
bo I think top twenty and four of US last
five events Keg and Bradley is not really fared all
(28:57):
that well at US Opens. Throughout his career. He's had
two top tens, but also five missed cuts. But yeah,
his te degree in game has just been on point
this year. The putting not so much.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
So, Yeah, he's streaky.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
Let's talk about Sepstraca and Patrick Cantley. Struck has missed
the cut in the first two majors of the year,
and his best finish in his last three US Opens
was a tie for fifty sixth. But Struck is having
a really nice season. His game seems like it's a
good fit for Oakmont. He ranks fifteenth in driving, anchoracy
third and strokes gain, an approach seventeenth and putting. Oh
(29:36):
and he has already won in Pennsylvania this year at
the Truest Championship. And then you've got Patrick Cantlay his
last four US Open finishes fifteenth, fourteenth, fourteenth, and third.
He was twelfth at the Memorial, which was the last
of any played and not dissimilar to a US Open.
But he's sixty first in strokes gained putting this year,
(29:57):
and he's outside the top one twenty five and scre rambling.
Any of those guys interest you.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
I'm looking at the odds, they're they're similar. Now. I
think that you're gonna start to see more action on
Can't Lay than Straka just be and that making can't
lay shorter than he already is can't lay short game
one hundred and eighteenth around the greens. That worries me,
especially since his approach is good but not as good
as Straka. I think I'll take Straca at face value
(30:26):
with that odds difference, because although both of them are
awful around the greens, which is going to be very
important this week. If they're not hitting the right spots
on these greens, they're gonna have to be using wearing
out their short game. Wearing it out is going to
be the key. Straka is twelfth on approach and all
(30:47):
these all these buckets look really good. He's seventeenth and
three put of avoidance, which is going to be great
better than can't lay at bogie avoidance. Although they're both
strong there, I think they're both valuable picks. I just
think Straca with the difference being a little bit longer
and playing a little bit better this year, I think
I'll take Straka at face value. But I'm not really
interested in betting either one of them right at this point.
(31:10):
I just think, if you're gonna give me a choice,
I'll take Straca.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Speaking of awful around the greens ball, we can't bet
Victor Hoveland at sixty to one, can we?
Speaker 2 (31:19):
A lot of people are a lot of people are,
and it's because he's so good from tee to green.
But I don't know, man, He's just he's he's a
head case, and so can he show up like he
did at the vals? Bar and win somehow. Of course
he can't. He's Victor Hovland. I just don't know that
he has the ticker up top there to come through
(31:40):
four days in a row. That's the tough part is
Victor is good for two or three really strong rounds,
but he might throw in an eighty plus round this week,
and that's what's gonna sink him.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
Two more guys. I want to talk about Ben Griffin
coming in red hot obviously. Last three tournaments, he was
eighth at the PGA, he won the Charles Schwab Challenge,
and he was runner up to Scotti Scheffler at the Memorial.
And I really like Harris English this week at one
hundred to one bow. We've talked about how he's a
grinder who's always had his best on the toughest courses.
(32:11):
He's had three top ten finishes in the last five
US Opens, and English was second at the PGA last month.
What about players with odds longer than one hundred to
one bow who's capable of surprising us and giving better
is a big payoff.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I'm just gonna go with one guy. A lot of
my betting money is going to go towards the top
with Rory and John Rahm and call him or Kaw
with Shane Lowry, those guys that we've already mentioned. But
Denny McCarthy, for some reason just completely shot to the top.
Great short game, great putter, and honestly a really decent
tee to green game this season. This is a Denny
(32:48):
McCarthy guy who's dangerous when you're having to grind it out.
When I ran my first model with no filters for
difficult scoring relative to part and fast and lightning speed greens,
we're gonna see he wasn't anything special. But as soon
as I filtered for difficult conditions with lightning fast greens.
Look at Denny McCarthy's shoot to the top because he's
(33:10):
so good around and on the greens that when things
get really tough, that's where you lean on. That's where
these guys score. That's where I think Scottie Scheffler falls
short this week is because when things get really nasty
on and around the greens, is those strengths that he
has on approach they're neutralized. Is these greens are so big,
(33:31):
you have to be super close and below the hole
all the time. I think if you take away all
the other ancillary stats like driving distance and strokes gained
off the tee, which I don't think is as valuable.
This week, Danny McCarthy is top ten and six of
my categories, and he's one hundred and fifty to one.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
He shows up at US Opens two bow, he's in
his last three. He's finished seventh, twentieth and thirty second.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
He's a grinder.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
He is a grinder. Indeed, I'll mention three more. So.
We have Taylor Pendrith at one hundred and twenty to one,
said four top tens this season and has played pretty
well of late. He ranks fourth in strokes gained off
the te and thirty fifth in strokes ganned unapproach. I'm
surprised you didn't mention this guy. Bol Akha Batilla one
(34:18):
hundred and fifty to one, finished sixteenth at Pinehurst last
year and what was only his second US Open. It's
reasonably accurate off the tee, good unapproach, top fifteen in
strokes gained putting this season, and uh, just because you
didn't come through with a guy with super long odds, boy,
I have to mention at least one. Emiliano Grio is
(34:39):
twenty fourth in driving accuracy, thirty fourth in strokes gain unapproached.
His US Open history isn't great, but he's at a
top fifteen finish at the PGA, a top twenty at
the Masters, so he's got a little tiny bit of
Major's pedigree.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Yes, all right, Bob.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
So who's on your early betting card for the US
Open as of right now?
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Now? All right? So I got Rory McElroy at plus
twelve hundred, John Rahm plus fourteen hundreds where I got him,
Colin more Kabba plus twenty seven hundreds where I got him.
But he's going at plus twenty five right now, Shane
Lowry at fifty to one, Sam Burns ninety to one,
Keegan Bradley hundred to one, and Denny McCarthy one hundred
and fifty to one.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
All right. Riding the high of my Ryan Fox fumes
from the Canadian Open, I'm playing it a little bit different, bo.
I'm going kind of off vibes this week, and I'm
gonna take Bryson even at plus seven to fifty again,
matt At myself. I didn't take him at twelve to
one last week when I could have had him. But
you know, I obviously think Scotti Scheffler is a better
(35:42):
chance to win, but Bryson at plus seven fifty seems
like a better value proposition than Scotty at plus two
seventy five, so here's hoping. I know Oakmont is not
a bombing gouge course, but I didn't think Wingfoot was
a bombing gouge course either, and Bryson made it work well.
Keen Neeman at plus three thousand, he's just been so
(36:03):
good lately, and his top ten at the PGA seemed
to I don't know, it seem like a good indicator
that he's ready to start contending at majors. Ben Griffin
is on such a heater. I'm taking him at plus
seven thousand, a little worried that he doesn't hit enough fairways,
but I'm also going to take him for a top
five kicker at plus nine hundred. Harris English, I'm all
over at one hundred to one, with a top five
(36:24):
kicker at twelve to one and a top thirty at
plus one fifteen. The dude has never missed the cottonam
mate in a US Open, so I like that top
thirty beat quite a bit, and I'm going to throw
a buck or two each on Akshay and on Emiliano
Grio at Okha one fifty to one, Grio four hundred
(36:44):
to one.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Now for our one done picks, Bo took Native Canadian
Corey Connors in the Canadian Open. He finished tied for
twenty seventh one bow sixty four, three hundred and fifty
four dollars. I'd Robert McIntyre. He tied for thirty sixth
good for forty four, six hundred and sixty dollars. Not
a lot of blood bows. Doll is a big lead.
(37:06):
But I'm up first this week. I'm going to take
Bryson d Shambeau. Who are you taking? Bow?
Speaker 2 (37:13):
I'm going to go and use up one of my
live characters that I'm hoping doesn't go completely nuclear in
the wrong direction. I'm going with the fiery spaniard John Rahm.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Ah Rom For a second, I don't know, I had
a feeling that you were going to take our guy,
Tyrrell Hatton, who we didn't really talk about any any
interest in him whatsoever or.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
No, uh not as odds as are too.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Short, yeah, too short, And I just I don't really
like the uh the personality for a major. I just
don't know if he'll he can keep it together deep
down the stretch if things are close before we go bow,
your your prediction for a winning score at Oakmont this week.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
I have a hope and a prayer that it's plus
eight as the winning score, but I'll predict plus four.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Oh, you're such a sadist. I'm gonna say someone. I'm
gonna say one or two players get under par this week.
I'm gonna go with minus two. I know that would
make you deeply unhappy, so I apologize for taking such a.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
If it's minus two, I hope it's just one guy
that breaks part like that and he just runs away
because it's a spectacle of just incredible golf. That's what
it takes to be to be minus two. It is
definitely possible, but it's gonna take a really special four
rounds to do that.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
Yep. You've got to be playing lights out to go
under par at Oakmont for four rounds. And that's all
for this week's Betting Pro PGA podcast. Good luck with
your US Open wagering, and please come join us again
next week when we will be previewing the Travelers Championship.
Until then, so long everyone. Thanks for listening to the
(38:51):
Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best
freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review
on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and
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Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Betting Pros.
Welcome to the Betting pros PGA AT Podcast. I'm Pat
Fitzmorris joined by Bau mcbrear. It's US Open week and
the US Open is returning to perhaps the most classic
of all US Open venues, Oakmont's Country Club in western Pennsylvania.
Bo and I are here to give you a full
betting preview from the third major of the year. We'll
talk about Oakmont, we'll talk about the odds. We'll talk
(00:23):
about what sort of form the top players are in
and whether their games are suited to tame o. Come on,
if that's possible, We'll tell you who we're betting this week,
and we will make one and done picks at the
end of the show. First, we'll quickly recap the Canadian Open.
Ryan Fox wins his second tournament of twenty twenty five.
The New Zealander won a marathon sudden death playoff against
Sam Burns, clinching it with a birdie on the fourth
(00:46):
playoff hole. Burns went out early on Sunday and posted
in eight under par sixty two that got him to
eighteen under par. Then he waited for nearly two hours
to see if anyone could catch him. Several players tried
but failed Cameron Young, Kevin ben On and others, but
on the final hole of regulation, Ryan Fox rolled in
a seventeen footer to get to eighteen under par and
(01:08):
force a playoff. Fox's putt barely snuck in on the
low side of the hole. Then Burns and Fox replayed
the par five eighteenth hole three times without breaking the tie.
Both players made pars on the first three playoff holes.
Fox would later refer to the first three playoff holes
as a pillow fight, with neither player stepping up to
take charge. Tournament officials actually changed the whole location during
(01:32):
the playoff, giving the two players a more accessible pin
that didn't require as dangerous an approach shot over the
pond fronting the green. On the fourth playoff all Burns
and Fox both went forward in two. Fox hit his
approach shot to about seven feet, Burns hit his to
about forty feet. Burns then rased his eagle putt ten
feet past the hole. Then he lipped out the ten
(01:53):
footer for birdie that gave Fox two putts from seven
feet for a win. He now his two titles in
PGA Tour career, and they both come this year. Fox
also won last month's one Flight Myrtle Beach Classic, which
also ended up in a playoff. Fox chipped in to
win a three man playoff in that one bo Fox
made me a little bit of money yesterday at a
(02:16):
couple of bucks on him at eighty to one. One
other note from the Canadian Open. Two time Canadian Open
Chip Rory McElroy was in the field. He finished nine
over par and missed the cut by twelve strokes. Yikes,
not great, not great, not great going into a major.
But what did you make of Ryan Fox's victory? And
what do you think about the new Canadian Open host
(02:37):
course TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Well, I mean they're going to go back to another
course road after next year. Actually they're going to repeat
Austra Valley next year. And it was pure bomb and gouge,
Like the top of leaderboard was a who's who have
bomb and prey type players because there was no penal
ref there no, there were no penalties ever for any
wayward shots the whole week, and I'm surprised it was
(03:02):
only eighteen under. Some of the guys were having a
trouble putting on the greens, but it seemed like they
were the guys who avoided three putts were the ones
that scored the best. But it was a lot of
bombers and a lot of guys with hot putters. Ryan
Fox not normally known for a short game, especially as putting,
but he came through with one of the longer hitters
(03:23):
out there and remarkably consistent through the week. Sam burns
Is sixty two on Sunday was impressive though. That's a
really really good score even on an easier golf course,
especially when he was done way early. I was kind
of rooting for Burnsy, but I didn't really have a
horse in the fight. I didn't place anybody on that week.
(03:45):
Luckily didn't bet too much because I was saving myself
for the US Open.
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Yes, I've heard it's a big tournaments, and especially big
going back to Oakmont. You know, some of the new
courses are nice, the LA Country Club and such, but
I like the classics and we will turn our full
attention to the US Open in just a moment.
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Speaker 1 (04:42):
So you have It's back to Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania,
which is in western Pennsylvania about fourteen miles northeast of Pittsburgh.
Oakmont opened in nineteen oh four and was designed by
Henry Follins, the only course Founds ever designed, and it
really is a class qu us up in course. This
will be the tenth time Oakmont has hosted Yes Vintage
(05:06):
for sure, no other course has hosted it as many
times as Oakmont, and Oakmont is really unique. It has
no water hazards, just a couple of deep drainage ditches
that are considered water hazards with regard to the rules.
Oakmont was originally built as a Lynx course. They added
trees in the fifties and sixties, but the trees were
mostly removed in the two thousands. Oakmont is known for
(05:30):
its blazing fast poa greens. Putting on Oakmont's greens is
like putting on a marble floor, and there are a
lot of slopes to these greens too, so if you've
got a downhill pot, good luck with that. Oakmont is
also famous for its church pews bunker, which splits the
third and fourth holes. It's one hundred yards long and
has rows of grass strips in the sand, very iconic.
(05:52):
The course will plays a parse seventy measuring seven three
hundred and seventy two yards. It's a long course, but
not insanely long US Open standards. However, some of the
individual holes are insanely long. The two par fives are
both longer than six hundred yards. The twelfth hole will
play two six hundred and thirty two yards. It actually
played at six eighty four yards back in twenty sixteen.
(06:17):
It is ridiculous. The eighth hole is a par three
measuring two hundred and eighty nine yards, and two of
the par fours on the back nine measure over five
hundred yards. There are also a couple of short holes.
Number two is a three hundred and sixty four yard
par four, and number seventeen is a par four measuring
three hundred and twelve yards, but it's a blind, uphill
t shot to a green guarded by five very deep bunkers.
(06:42):
The fairways at Oakmont they're going to be tight, the
roughest five inch thick Kentucky bluegrass, and if you find
one of the fairway bunkers, you might not have a
chance to hit the green with your approach shot. You
might just have to come out sideways. Driving accuracy is
going to be very critical this week. It's on a
very let's say not flat patch of land Oakmont is,
(07:06):
so players are going to get all sorts of side
hill downhill lies with their even with the balls they
hit under the fairway and back to those greens, not
only are they fast, but they are huge. So lag
putting is going to be important this week. In short,
we're in for a wild ride, and the winning score
might not be under par. In two thousand and seven,
(07:30):
on Hell Cabrera won the US Open at Oakmont with
a winning score of plus five. The cut line was
The cut line was plus ten that year, and when
the US Open was last played at Oakmont in twenty sixteen,
Dustin Johnson finished four under part to win by three
strokes over Shane Lowry, Jim Furick, Scott Pearcy. They were
(07:51):
the only four players to finish under par. The cut
line that year was plus six. So all of this
makes Johnny Miller's final round sixty three at oak in
nineteen seventy three looked pretty good. And yes, Oakmann was
still a butt kicker back then. Bryce Indy Schambeau is
the defending US Open champion, although he won at Pinehurst
number two last year. The weather forecast this week calls
(08:14):
for temperatures in the low to mid eighties on Thursday
and Friday, with mild winds in the five to ten
mile an hour range. Saturday's thunderstorms in the forecast along
with slightly cooler temperatures in the seventies. There's also rain
in the forecast for Sunday as well. The wind should
be light on the weekend to five to ten miles
an hour. Bo give me your thoughts on Oakmont Country Club.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
It's the quintessential US Open golf course. The US Open
is my favorite tournament to watch every year. Father's Day
weekend every year it's always set up by the USGA
to be brutally difficult. I love carnage. I love Oakmont
carnage because it's carnage without a long golf course. This
(08:57):
is a traditional It's a treeless, waterless golf course that says, hey,
hit in the fairway or you're screwed, and then hit
the green or you're screwed. And even if you do
both of those things, you might still be screwed. On
these greens. They're gigantic run. They're gonna be running a
fourteen or fifteen on the stip meter, which is as
(09:18):
fast as you're ever going to see on the PGA tour,
and they're used to seeing twelve and thirteens pretty much
every week. Fifteen on the stimp means that they hold
it at a forty five degree angle. They let it
roll down the little one foot ramp and it rolls
out fifteen inches to a twelve inch drop. That means
it's gonna be lightning fast, like I'm putting on the
(09:38):
hood of a Volkswagen. It's gonna be It's just it's
gonna be fun to watch the best players in the
world start to whine and cry about the tough conditions. Boomoo, yeah,
I love it. I want to see the winning score
way over par. I want to see the cut line
to be plus fifteen. I want it to be the
(09:59):
hardest US Open up all time. I want to see
all of these guys cry. I want to see Scotti
Scheffler throw clubs again. I want to see John rom
maybe completely combust from from his anger. I want to
see all of these things happen, and at the end,
I want to see the guy who comes out with
most of his limbs intact holding that trophy. H Oakmont,
(10:20):
bring it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I'll be honest. This is my third favorite major, behind
the Masters and the Open Championship. But bo when they
play at a classic venue like oak Mott's or Winged Foot,
then the US Open becomes, in my estimation, the equal
of those other tournaments. Pinehurst number two even. But you know,
(10:43):
it's just I didn't love the La Country Club. I
certainly didn't love Aaron Hills in Wisconsin, which I actually attended,
and I thought that was a pretty weak US Open venue.
Didn't help that.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
The win can all be pebble beats exactly.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Yeah, give me Pebble, give me Oakmont give me winged
so we will get to the US Open odds in
just a moment. Right after Bo tells you about no Vig, are.
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winning and losing his greenshots. Mike and picks in the discord.
If you have questions, reach out to Mike Mayor. He's
happy to help.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Yeah, hopefully more winners than losers for Mayor. He's actually
pretty sharp when it comes to wagering.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Yeah, he's but he's a braggart about it too. So yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Now for the US Open odds. All odds are courtesy
of DraftKings as of Monday. Some of these odds may
have changed by the time you consume this show. Scotty
Shuffler opens as a heavy favorite. No surprise there. He's
plus two seventy five. Bryson Deshamba is plus seven fifty.
Rory McElroy and John ramerre plus twelve hundred, Xander Schoffley
is plus twenty two hundred, Kala Morricaw was plus twenty
(12:41):
five hundred, Joaquin Neeman and Ludwig Oberg are plus three thousand,
Tommy Fleetwood is plus thirty five hundred, Justin Thomas's plus
four thousand, and Tyrol Hatton and Shane Lowry are plus
forty five hundred. Let's talk about the favorites. Bo Being
cautious with Scotty hasn't worked for us lately, and and
one time in the last month that I bet him
(13:03):
out right before the tournament, he didn't win, so are you?
Speaker 2 (13:06):
And that was the only time he didn't win.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
Literally the only time in the last month he hasn't
won when I bet him before the tournament. Are you
interested in taking him at plus two seventy five?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Absolutely not. And yeah, I'm still gonna keep fading the
odds on Scotty. We love Scotty. I don't have anything
bad to say about him, but the books are taking
us all for suckers. They expect Scotty Scheffler to get
a lot of money in on the books and it's
just a money a numbers game. They don't have to
pay very much if Scotty wins. They hope Scotty wins
(13:41):
because as much as money as you're gonna get on
people betting plus two to seventy, you're gonna get even
more money on people at longer odds that have no
chance to win. And Scotti Scheffler, if he wins plus
two to seventy that they're paying nothing out unless you
want to parlay Scotty with something else a little bit
sure of bet Like let's say you're an you want
to bet on the Pacers to win Game three, or
(14:03):
you want to bet on the thunder to win Game three.
Parlay that with Scottie Scheffler's plus two seventy, you might
get some a little bit banging for your buck. That's
better than the straight up odds that I wouldn't touch
with a ten foot poll. I'm going to start my
book my betting at Rory McElroy plus seven fifty. Yeah,
it's risky. We saw him play last week. He played
(14:24):
his worst tournament of his career. He had his worst
strokes gained rounds, the two worst strokes gains rounds since
twenty thirteen when he was a teenager. That should tell
you all you need to know about scott where Rory's
head was last week, in a preparation week for the
US Open, he committed to the Canadian Open early. He
stuck with it instead of going to the Memorial. He
(14:47):
played terribly. His mind wasn't in it. He was looking
ahead to Oakmont. I'm going to take that at face
value and say that Rory is still a great fit
for this golf course and still very live to win
and gonna give us much better odds of paying off
at the plus seven to fifty line.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
And now he's plus twelve hundred bo. He drifted big time.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
After I gotta check this out again.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Yes, so he drifted severely to plus twelve hundred after
the bad showing at the Canadian Open. My one issue
with Rory so obviously terrific season so far, wins at
the at and T Pebble Beach Proram Players Championship, the Masters,
but he was forty seventh at the PGA Championship. The
tune up at the Canadian Open was a disaster. I
(15:33):
just wonder bo if he is in this postmaster's hangover,
and I feel like he'll come out of it. He'll
take some advil, get some greasy food in his stomach,
be ready when the Open Championship goes to Northern Ireland
and Royal Port Rush, Like, I've no doubt he's going
to be ready for that. Is he ready for this
(15:54):
this week? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
I mean yet plus twelve hundred, I'm even more in
than I was a plus seven fifty. I just looked
at the wrong line. I guess I went cross. I'd
looking at the odds just a minute ago, because he is,
in fact at plus twelve hundred and now I'm even
more in love with him.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Yeah, Like I wouldn't even think about it at plus
seven to fifty at plus twelve hundred, I can understand
why someone would have won up pounce on that. As
for Scottie, what's the one major he hasn't won so far? Ooh,
I mean like that's not a.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Really open championship.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Oh yeah, but he's not won a US Open.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Correct, He's only won a PGA and that was up
until this year. He'd only won the two Green jackets.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
So I forgot he had not won an Open championship either. Yeah,
he finished second in twenty twenty two at the country Club.
He's finished top ten at the US Open three of
the last four years, although he did finish a disappointing
forty first at Pinehurst last year. But yeah, plus two
seventy saying.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Just saying this is this is Oakmont. This is gonna
be where we're looking at a lot of different stats
like boge avoidance, double bogie avoidance. And even though Scotty's
number one in my model, he's seventieth in putting, he's
actually one hundredth in the proximity bucket I'm looking at
and fortieth and three putt avoidance, which is going to
be paramount with these gigantic, super fast greens where we've
(17:19):
seen Scotty struggle putting are on the really fast greens,
so I think there's something there. Obviously, if he wins,
nobody's going to be surprised, including you and I. But
when he come down to the very next people in
my model, it's guys like Rory McElroy and John ram
at plus fourteen hundred, Like John, Rom's been playing great
golf the last month, a lot better than Rory.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Actually, yeah, so Rom. He was an amateur when he
played the twenty sixteen US Open at Oakmont. Rom tied
for twenty third that year with a very respectable score
of plus six. It was obviously encouraging to see him
play so well at the PGA. I just I can't
get on board with him at twelve to one odds, Bow,
I feel like that's right now four All right, Well,
(18:02):
I'm getting a little more interested.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Okay, twelve On some books, I'm looking at two right now.
One's twelve, one's fourteen. Uh yeah, I'm with you. It's
it's kind of teetering there on a decent line. I
just think he's a great fit for the course.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So Rory's odds are drifting. Ramz odds are drifting. Bryson
d Chambeau's odds are tightening up. Unfortunately, he was at
plus twelve hundred last week. I'm kind of kicking myself
for not taking him when I could have gotten that number,
and now he's plus seven to fifty. He's finished top
five in each of his last six events. That's four
(18:36):
live tour events and the two majors of the year.
Fifth of the Masters, second at the PGA. Bryson has
finished top six in five of the last six majors.
Bo Can Bryson overpower Oakmont.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
No, Oakmont is un overpowerable. That's not a word, but
it is. For all intents and purposes. Bomb and gouge
is you get half of that here. It does help
to vomit. But if you're not in these fairways, then
you have no chance at reaching the green, no matter
how far down there you are none. If you're in
(19:10):
a fairway bunker or in that five inch Kentucky blue rests,
you are not going to reach the green, whether your
wrists are made of iron or not. So Bryson, if
he hits those fairways and he's down there three fifty
four hundred yards, absolutely can win. This tournament. Rory McElroy,
same thing. These guys that have that advantage, that advantage
is completely null and void if you're not in the fairway.
(19:31):
And these fairways are tight. So yes, we need guys
who are long and straight, because gouging it out is
not going to be towards the green in any fashion.
Gouging it out is going to be trying to get
it back into the short grass so you can scramble
to make par or even bogie on some of these holes.
Bogie is a very good score.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
All right. Let's talk about Xander Schaffley a plus twenty
two hundred and Colin Moore kawat plus twenty five hundred.
So Xander has played eight US Opens in his career
and has placed top ten in all but one of them.
His worst finish in a US Open a tie for fourteenth.
But Schoffley hasn't exactly been challenging for wins lately. Not
(20:12):
that he's been in bad form, just not really contending.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
He's the quintessential grinder. He and Colin are polar opposites.
You'd say, oh, Colin looks good on this course, because
obviously fairways and greens are huge here. But Xander is
the grinder. Xander is the guy who can miss some
fairways and miss some greens and get out of it
unscathed compared to the other people in this field. If
Colin's game is on, he can win. But if his
(20:39):
game is off, he's got no chance. Xander could be
at eighty five percent form and still win this thing
because he's just got that firepower, that grinded out mentality.
I think that it's a fragile footing to bet on
Colin Morikawa, but he does have a good chance, especially
at plus twenty five hundred Xander plus twenty two hundred.
(20:59):
That is so tempting because the tougher the course gets,
the more he kind of rises to the top. Anyway,
That's why his record at the US Open is so good,
is because when things get really nasty, Xander Shaffley is
a dog like that. Guy does not buckle down under pressure.
He just focuses harder and he makes it happen. So
(21:22):
gimme Colin because the numbers a little better, and we've
seen Colin play progressively better this season and Xander's kind
of idling, So I'll take Colin. But if Colin gets
off to a bad start, you can pretty much write
him off because he's not going to have the mental
fortitude to recover from a bad day or even a
(21:43):
bad hole.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Yeah, Statistically he's a great fifth though rank second and
tour driving accuracy, one of the best iron players in
the world. He's sixth in strokes gain and approach. But yeah,
Morikawa hasn't really contended in any event since the Arnold
Palmer Invitational in March. Now you want to talk about
coming into a tournament hot bo well, key Neieman just
(22:05):
won his fourth live event of the year and had
his best finish ever in a major at last month's PGA,
finishing eighth and oh by the way, and winning this
live event, he just routinely fired a sixty three on
Sunday to come from behind. So yeah, Neiman hasn't made
a lot of noise at majors.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
But not bad for a third round score.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Yeah, exactly, only three rounds in the event, So still
pretty impressive.
Speaker 2 (22:31):
Jab, But I'm also laughing because it's still a legit
golf tournament with a very legit competition.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
Yes, and now liveviig Oberg is starting to show signs
of life after going quiet Following this year's Masters, he
finished sixteenth at the Memorial and thirteenth at the Canadian Open.
What do you think of Nieman and Oberg?
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Nieman more than ober Oberg's short game still worries me.
His short approach very much worries me. This is a
this is another. It's very similar to Markawa, where from
tee to green you don't really worry about Oberg. But
if one little thing is off kilter on a golf
course like this that has so many penalty areas or
(23:12):
just punishing wayward shots on the scorecard, Ludvig Oberg is
not good at avoiding double bogies. He's good at avoiding bogies,
but there's a difference there. Oakmont like a regular run
of the Mills Tour, like last week RBC Canadian Open,
I waited bogey avoidance and didn't even think about double
bogie avoidance this course, I'm actually weighing both of them
(23:35):
because they're two completely different metrics. It's like there's there's
avoiding a quote unquote bad score, and then there's avoiding
the the cataclysmic score, which is around every little corner
and nook and cranny. At Oakmont, no trees, no water,
you still have no outs if you're if you're off
(23:55):
one shot, you were gonna it's gonna cost you to
and Ludwig Obert sixty fourth in this field in double
bogie avoidance. Joaquin Neeman not a lot of data to
go with because he's playing a lot fewer rounds. But
what bugs me about Nieman the most is he's just
not good on approach. Everything about his game says if
(24:19):
you're saying, oh, I'm good off the tee tee de green,
he's eighth, fourteenth and bogie avoidance. He's not good in
double bogie avoidance either. Fifty sixth, one hundred and fourth
and scrambling, which parlay is with one fifty seventh in
proximity at one fifty an in and we're gonna have
a lot of short approach shots, honestly, because this course
(24:39):
is long average length, you're gonna have a lot of
short approach shots when you're in the fairway. And he's
dead last in both of those those little proximity buckets.
So Nieman better be good on short iron approach, and
he'd betta be really good dialed in better than ever
at avoiding blow up Poles, because because all those majors
(25:01):
until the last major he was in where he was
finishing eighth, he had never finished better than thirtieth in
any major until then because he always had either one
bad day or two or three really bad holes and
he was out of contention. Great player, I don't know
that he has what it takes to win a US Open.
(25:22):
It's for me, it's just way too short for a
guy who's shown no propensity at all, is in his
very long career to do well in majors up until
the PGA.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Yeah, not that long. Still in his twenties, right, so he's.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Still young, but he's been playing a long time.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Yes, Now one more got to mention from this group.
It should be noted that Shane Lowry was the fifty
four hole leader when the US Opened was last played
at Oakmont in twenty sixteen. Unfortunately, he went six over
par on Sunday and finished three shots behind winter Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
I just and guess who I bet on that week?
Speaker 1 (25:57):
Lowry? Oh? Yeah, I mean, I just like, he's just
not made for Sunday at majors, and he just I
don't know if he can pot well enough to contend.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I'm still betting him at fifty to one though.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Really interesting. Yes, yes, all right, let's run through more
of the odds. We have Stepstraka at plus five thousand,
Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Kopka at plus fifty five hundred,
Corey Connors and Victor Hovlin at plus six thousand, Russell
Henley at plus sixty five hundred, Ben Griffin, Jordan Speith
and Hideki Matsuyam at plus seven thousand. Sam Burns is
(26:32):
plus eight thousand, and at one hundred and one odds
are Daniel Berger, Aaron Raie, Tony Fino, Patrick Reed, Keegan
Bradley and Harris English. Does anyone stand out from this group?
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Bo Sammy ballgame should have won the Canadian Open. He
is a dog. Three pet avoidance, bogie avoidance, double bogie avoidance,
pretty accurate off the tee and right now, right this
minute approach not that bad. If Sam Burns can get
near the hole on some approach shots this week, he's
(27:06):
gonna be live. And with his putting stroke, his short game,
his recovery game. Sam Burns at ninety to one, right now,
that's pretty darn good. I think I'll take that. That's
a guy who can get hot, very good grinder, just
at avoiding those big blow up holes. His approach game
is his weak spot. But at the same time, I'm
(27:28):
not too worried about it because he's number one in
both putting metrics and strokes game putting on fast greens
and number one and three put avoidance fourteenth and scrambling,
and that's it's just everything I'm looking at with Sam Burns.
The only thing that scares me is approach, and lately
it's been better. I love that number. I love the
way he's coming into this tournament a little bit of
(27:50):
little anger because he had many chances to win that
tournament on Sunday and just didn't quite have enough in
the playoff holes to beat Ryan Fox, which I thought
was I couldn't believe it. I was so blown away
by all the chances that Burns had to vanquish Fox.
The key we just kept slipping through the cracks with
(28:10):
terrible pars on that part five hole, and Burns just
couldn't get out of his own way. I think Burns
is a live bet to win the same at ninety
to one and Keegan Bradley hundred to one. Long Irons
short Irons grinded out mentality Captain America himself, I got,
I gotta, I go with my guy Keegan Bradley. That's
(28:30):
that's so much fun to look at those odds and say, hey,
that's a guy who's fun to root for.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Their games are sort of polar opposite in a way.
Burns are just not that great tea to Green but
maybe the best putter in the world, at least at
the moment. And by the way, Burns did finish ninth
in last year's US Open at Pinehurst. Yeah, so he
seems like he's made for this. And as you said,
bo I think top twenty and four of US last
five events Keg and Bradley is not really fared all
(28:57):
that well at US Opens. Throughout his career. He's had
two top tens, but also five missed cuts. But yeah,
his te degree in game has just been on point
this year. The putting not so much.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
So, Yeah, he's streaky.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
Let's talk about Sepstraca and Patrick Cantley. Struck has missed
the cut in the first two majors of the year,
and his best finish in his last three US Opens
was a tie for fifty sixth. But Struck is having
a really nice season. His game seems like it's a
good fit for Oakmont. He ranks fifteenth in driving, anchoracy
third and strokes gain, an approach seventeenth and putting. Oh
(29:36):
and he has already won in Pennsylvania this year at
the Truest Championship. And then you've got Patrick Cantlay his
last four US Open finishes fifteenth, fourteenth, fourteenth, and third.
He was twelfth at the Memorial, which was the last
of any played and not dissimilar to a US Open.
But he's sixty first in strokes gained putting this year,
(29:57):
and he's outside the top one twenty five and scre rambling.
Any of those guys interest you.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
I'm looking at the odds, they're they're similar. Now. I
think that you're gonna start to see more action on
Can't Lay than Straka just be and that making can't
lay shorter than he already is can't lay short game
one hundred and eighteenth around the greens. That worries me,
especially since his approach is good but not as good
as Straka. I think I'll take Straca at face value
(30:26):
with that odds difference, because although both of them are
awful around the greens, which is going to be very
important this week. If they're not hitting the right spots
on these greens, they're gonna have to be using wearing
out their short game. Wearing it out is going to
be the key. Straka is twelfth on approach and all
(30:47):
these all these buckets look really good. He's seventeenth and
three put of avoidance, which is going to be great
better than can't lay at bogie avoidance. Although they're both
strong there, I think they're both valuable picks. I just
think Straca with the difference being a little bit longer
and playing a little bit better this year, I think
I'll take Straka at face value. But I'm not really
interested in betting either one of them right at this point.
(31:10):
I just think, if you're gonna give me a choice,
I'll take Straca.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Speaking of awful around the greens ball, we can't bet
Victor Hoveland at sixty to one, can we?
Speaker 2 (31:19):
A lot of people are a lot of people are,
and it's because he's so good from tee to green.
But I don't know, man, He's just he's he's a
head case, and so can he show up like he
did at the vals? Bar and win somehow. Of course
he can't. He's Victor Hovland. I just don't know that
he has the ticker up top there to come through
(31:40):
four days in a row. That's the tough part is
Victor is good for two or three really strong rounds,
but he might throw in an eighty plus round this week,
and that's what's gonna sink him.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
Two more guys. I want to talk about Ben Griffin
coming in red hot obviously. Last three tournaments, he was
eighth at the PGA, he won the Charles Schwab Challenge,
and he was runner up to Scotti Scheffler at the Memorial.
And I really like Harris English this week at one
hundred to one bow. We've talked about how he's a
grinder who's always had his best on the toughest courses.
(32:11):
He's had three top ten finishes in the last five
US Opens, and English was second at the PGA last month.
What about players with odds longer than one hundred to
one bow who's capable of surprising us and giving better
is a big payoff.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I'm just gonna go with one guy. A lot of
my betting money is going to go towards the top
with Rory and John Rahm and call him or Kaw
with Shane Lowry, those guys that we've already mentioned. But
Denny McCarthy, for some reason just completely shot to the top.
Great short game, great putter, and honestly a really decent
tee to green game this season. This is a Denny
(32:48):
McCarthy guy who's dangerous when you're having to grind it out.
When I ran my first model with no filters for
difficult scoring relative to part and fast and lightning speed greens,
we're gonna see he wasn't anything special. But as soon
as I filtered for difficult conditions with lightning fast greens.
Look at Denny McCarthy's shoot to the top because he's
(33:10):
so good around and on the greens that when things
get really tough, that's where you lean on. That's where
these guys score. That's where I think Scottie Scheffler falls
short this week is because when things get really nasty
on and around the greens, is those strengths that he
has on approach they're neutralized. Is these greens are so big,
(33:31):
you have to be super close and below the hole
all the time. I think if you take away all
the other ancillary stats like driving distance and strokes gained
off the tee, which I don't think is as valuable.
This week, Danny McCarthy is top ten and six of
my categories, and he's one hundred and fifty to one.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
He shows up at US Opens two bow, he's in
his last three. He's finished seventh, twentieth and thirty second.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
He's a grinder.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
He is a grinder. Indeed, I'll mention three more. So.
We have Taylor Pendrith at one hundred and twenty to one,
said four top tens this season and has played pretty
well of late. He ranks fourth in strokes gained off
the te and thirty fifth in strokes ganned unapproach. I'm
surprised you didn't mention this guy. Bol Akha Batilla one
(34:18):
hundred and fifty to one, finished sixteenth at Pinehurst last
year and what was only his second US Open. It's
reasonably accurate off the tee, good unapproach, top fifteen in
strokes gained putting this season, and uh, just because you
didn't come through with a guy with super long odds, boy,
I have to mention at least one. Emiliano Grio is
(34:39):
twenty fourth in driving accuracy, thirty fourth in strokes gain unapproached.
His US Open history isn't great, but he's at a
top fifteen finish at the PGA, a top twenty at
the Masters, so he's got a little tiny bit of
Major's pedigree.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Yes, all right, Bob.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
So who's on your early betting card for the US
Open as of right now?
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Now? All right? So I got Rory McElroy at plus
twelve hundred, John Rahm plus fourteen hundreds where I got him,
Colin more Kabba plus twenty seven hundreds where I got him.
But he's going at plus twenty five right now, Shane
Lowry at fifty to one, Sam Burns ninety to one,
Keegan Bradley hundred to one, and Denny McCarthy one hundred
and fifty to one.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
All right. Riding the high of my Ryan Fox fumes
from the Canadian Open, I'm playing it a little bit different, bo.
I'm going kind of off vibes this week, and I'm
gonna take Bryson even at plus seven to fifty again,
matt At myself. I didn't take him at twelve to
one last week when I could have had him. But
you know, I obviously think Scotti Scheffler is a better
(35:42):
chance to win, but Bryson at plus seven fifty seems
like a better value proposition than Scotty at plus two
seventy five, so here's hoping. I know Oakmont is not
a bombing gouge course, but I didn't think Wingfoot was
a bombing gouge course either, and Bryson made it work well.
Keen Neeman at plus three thousand, he's just been so
(36:03):
good lately, and his top ten at the PGA seemed
to I don't know, it seem like a good indicator
that he's ready to start contending at majors. Ben Griffin
is on such a heater. I'm taking him at plus
seven thousand, a little worried that he doesn't hit enough fairways,
but I'm also going to take him for a top
five kicker at plus nine hundred. Harris English, I'm all
over at one hundred to one, with a top five
(36:24):
kicker at twelve to one and a top thirty at
plus one fifteen. The dude has never missed the cottonam
mate in a US Open, so I like that top
thirty beat quite a bit, and I'm going to throw
a buck or two each on Akshay and on Emiliano
Grio at Okha one fifty to one, Grio four hundred
(36:44):
to one.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Now for our one done picks, Bo took Native Canadian
Corey Connors in the Canadian Open. He finished tied for
twenty seventh one bow sixty four, three hundred and fifty
four dollars. I'd Robert McIntyre. He tied for thirty sixth
good for forty four, six hundred and sixty dollars. Not
a lot of blood bows. Doll is a big lead.
(37:06):
But I'm up first this week. I'm going to take
Bryson d Shambeau. Who are you taking? Bow?
Speaker 2 (37:13):
I'm going to go and use up one of my
live characters that I'm hoping doesn't go completely nuclear in
the wrong direction. I'm going with the fiery spaniard John Rahm.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Ah Rom For a second, I don't know, I had
a feeling that you were going to take our guy,
Tyrrell Hatton, who we didn't really talk about any any
interest in him whatsoever or.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
No, uh not as odds as are too.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Short, yeah, too short, And I just I don't really
like the uh the personality for a major. I just
don't know if he'll he can keep it together deep
down the stretch if things are close before we go bow,
your your prediction for a winning score at Oakmont this week.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
I have a hope and a prayer that it's plus
eight as the winning score, but I'll predict plus four.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Oh, you're such a sadist. I'm gonna say someone. I'm
gonna say one or two players get under par this week.
I'm gonna go with minus two. I know that would
make you deeply unhappy, so I apologize for taking such a.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
If it's minus two, I hope it's just one guy
that breaks part like that and he just runs away
because it's a spectacle of just incredible golf. That's what
it takes to be to be minus two. It is
definitely possible, but it's gonna take a really special four
rounds to do that.
Speaker 1 (38:31):
Yep. You've got to be playing lights out to go
under par at Oakmont for four rounds. And that's all
for this week's Betting Pro PGA podcast. Good luck with
your US Open wagering, and please come join us again
next week when we will be previewing the Travelers Championship.
Until then, so long everyone. Thanks for listening to the
(38:51):
Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best
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