May 5, 2025 • 23 mins
Time to tee it up in Pennsylvania! Join Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer as they recap The CJ Cup Byron Nelson before exploring the top betting strategies for the Truist Championship!
How will the field approach a new course to the Tour, the Philadelphia Cricket Club? Can Justin Thomas (+2000) set yet another PGA record? Plus, will longshot Andrew Novak (+6500) remain one of the hottest golfers on the planet?
The Pros dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and longshots and reveal their top betting card selections. Plus, they share their one-and-done picks to help you maximize your winnings for the PGA season!
Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:00
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Recap - 0:00:21
BettingPros App Ad Read - 0:04:21
Philadelphia Cricket Club Preview - 0:04:57
Bet365 Ad Read - 0:10:24
The Favorites - 0:11:08
Justin Thomas - 0:11:51
Ludvig Aberg - 0:13:18
Collin Morikawa - 0:14:01
Xander Schauffele - 0:14:11
Jordan Spieth - 0:14:29
Maverick McNealy - 0:14:42
Mid-Range Options - 0:15:33
Sungjae Im - 0:16:48
Sepp Straka - 0:17 :18
The Longshots - 0:18:34
Andrew Novak - 0:18:40
Akshay Bhatia - 0:19:15
Rasmus Højgaard - 0:19:57
Brian Harman - 0:20:51
Betting Cards Review - 0:21:44
One-and-Done Picks - 0:22:13
Outro - 0:23:03
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. We have a new event on
the PGA Tour this week. It's going to be a
signature event with a star studded field, and it's going
to be played on an interesting new course. Bo and
I are excited to give you a betting preview of
the Truest Championship. But first we're going to quickly recap
(00:22):
the CJ. Cupp Byron Nelson, and I do mean quickly
because there's not much to recap. Quite frankly, Scotty Scheffler
blew away the field. Scotty finished thirty one under part
the Byron Nelson to win by eight strokes. He tied
the record for the lowest seventy two hole score in
PGA Tour history. Seemed like Scotty was going to break
the record, but he had a sloppy bogie on the
(00:43):
par three seventeenth and then he missed an eight foot
birdie putt on the par five eighteenth. But Scotty gets
his first win of the season. Eric Van Royan finishes
a distant second at minus twenty three. Sam Stevens was
third at minus twenty. This tournament was Scotty's from the start.
He opened with a sixty one. He followed it up
with rounds of sixty three, sixty six and sixty three bo.
(01:06):
On last week's show, we talked about the value proposition
of betting Scotty at plus two eighty, the lowest starting
odds we've seen for him this season. Those odds essentially
gave Scotty about a thirty six percent chance of winning.
We both thought there wasn't much value on Scotty at
those odds, but as good as Scotty has been the
past couple of years, he is certainly capable of making
(01:26):
anyone look silly for fading him, and I guess he
made us look silly. Bo Any thoughts on Scotty's win
at the Byron Nelson.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Well, we did go over this at length last week,
where we were kind of just hoping and praying he
didn't win because the odds were so terrible, But we
had a feeling that this could happen. And honestly, the
plus two to eighty or plus three twenty, whatever odds
you did bet Scotty on it was minus two to twenty.
(01:55):
After his sixty one on Thursday. He ends up going
wire to wire very convincing. He was aided by the
weather split. Him going off late and then early was
a massive advantage. So anybody that kind of went low
along with him in the opposite wave, they got absolutely
shafted by the weather delay at the six hour long
(02:17):
weather delay on Friday. And that's kind of what happened,
is you get somebody who might have been able to
maybe go low on Friday afternoon had to tee off
in much much more difficult conditions on Saturday morning. And
that was pretty much what eight stroke lead going into
the weekend, and it was all curtains after that. Scotty's
(02:39):
not going to relinquish a lead like that against a
field that honestly was pretty subpar pun intended. I guess
Scotty Scheffler's setting records. Nobody was going to catch him anyway.
He kind of doddled around the whole weekend where he
was still pedal to the metal, playing aggressively because there's
no trouble on that golf course. Even if Scotty went
out there and tried to do Happy Gilmour on every hole,
(03:01):
it wasn't going to be out of position or anything.
This is a machine of a golfer already, so tip
your cap to him. You're not gonna win any money
off of that bet anyway, What are you gonna win?
Three to one at best? I think I missed a
nice little parley to sweeten the odds for Scotty Scheffler
by a few hours. I got a tip on the
(03:22):
Kentucky Derby that would have won with sovereignty, but knowing
that I couldn't couldn't get the odds when I did
get the sovereignty pick. Oh well, we're moving on to
this week. It's gonna be a fun one because nobody
knows anything about this golf course. It's no cut. We
all know how most of us feel about no cut events. That,
(03:43):
by the looks of it, are going to be another
birdie fest.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Yeah, it should be, for sure. And Scotty, like you said, Bo,
the only time that course really showed any teeth all
weekend with Saturday morning, and I think Scotty not only
did he get to sleep in, I mean to sleep
in and enjoy a sumptuous brunch because he didn't tee
off until like after four pm local time. I think
(04:06):
on Saturday so he missed the worst of the weather
for sure, and you know, but he was gonna he
was swabbing the deck with the field no matter what.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
It was a bloodbath, yes it was.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Now we will preview the Truest Championship in just a moment,
but first.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
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(04:44):
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Speaker 1 (04:56):
So we've mentioned that the Truest Championship is a signature event.
It's got a twenty million dollar perse. There will be
eighty players in the field and there will not be
a thirty six hole cut. The Truest will be played
at the Wissa Hicken Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club
in Flowertown, Pennsylvania. I found out that Flowertown is the
hometown of one of my favorite hockey players of all time,
(05:19):
former New York Ranger and Wisconsin Badger goalie Mike Richter.
But never mind that the Wissa Hicken Course was designed
by aw Tillinghast and completed in nineteen twenty two. Tillinghast
is the architect responsible for two other iconic American courses,
Wingfoot and Bethpage Black, both in New York. The Wissa
(05:40):
Hicken Course is really interesting bo It's a parse seventy
measuring seven one hundred and nineteen yards. It's not a
long course and there are very few trees. There are, however,
a lot of bunkers, one hundred and eighteen of them
to be exact. The pars four seventh hole features something
called the G eight hazard. It's a group of thirteen
(06:02):
bunkers cutting across the middle of the fairway and they
are surrounded by rough Basically, it's just going to be
a forced lay up off the tee for the tour pros,
but I would imagine that the Great Hazard causes major
problems for high handicappers who play the witha Hicken course,
the fairways are pretty tight on some of the holes,
but not on all of them, and because the course
(06:23):
is fairly short, players will probably be able to keep
the driver of the bag on a lot of these holes.
Seven of the twelve par fours are four hundred and
thirty five yards or shorter. The two par fives are
five forty six and five point fifty three, pretty easily
reachable for the tour pros. One of the par threes
is one hundred and twenty two yards. This is not
(06:44):
a long course, but still it might be hard to
go flag hunting. A lot of the greens at the
Wissa Hicken Course are elevated, a lot of them are
two tiered. If you miss a green, there's a good
chance you're in a bunker and you've got a difficult
out to an elevated green. Because there's so few trees
on the course, the wind could be a factor here.
(07:04):
That was the case when they played the Senior Players
Championship at the Whissa Hicken Course in twenty sixteen. Bernard
Longer won with a score of one over par. That
was the highest ever winning score in that event. The
wind blew like crazy that week, so the scores were
way up, so what's the win going to be like
in the Philadelphia area during this tournament? Not too bad
(07:26):
from the looks of it. Winds should be in the
five to ten mile per hour range on three of
the four days with temperatures in the low to mid seventies.
Friday could be a little chillier and a little windier.
Winds are expected to be ten to fifteen miles an
hour and there's rain in the forecast. But what do
you make of the Wissa Hicken Course.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Well, if the wind does not pick up from less
than a one club wind, I think these guys are
going to go super duper low. This is going to
play even easier than TPC Craig grantch because of the
lack of distance. This is a golf course that without
wind is virtually defenseless against the top players in the world.
(08:05):
With the wind, it might get a little interesting. Because
it is a narrow course, it does have a lot
of nuance to it. A lot of these guys can
bomb it through the nuance and not take any prisoners
if the wind isn't causing them to think about those shots.
So if the wind stays at one club or less,
we're looking at another thirty under par type of week,
even with an elevated field. There's just it's just the
(08:28):
wind is really the only defense here.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Yeah, and the wind was you know, a major defensive
battle work in that Senior Championship nine years ago. But
without it, bo I mean, you would have to have
US open type rough and yeah, US open, the stint
meter would have to be rolling at like fifteen on
these greens or something.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
And you get that winged foot type of till has
to like vibe to it where we remember some majors
and some big events happen at wingd foot where you
get a little bit of wind and a long rough
and dried out conditions which I don't even think we're
gonna have dried out conditions for this golf course.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
That that's when these these types of tillhause courses can
grow some real teeth. But none of that is coming
into play this week. It's just gonna be a big
money grab for all eighty guys in the field.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Right, and if they do get the rain they're projecting.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
On Friday, it's gonna go even lower.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
Yeah, it could be Uh, it could be a birdie
fest on Saturday and Sunday if we get that, so
you know we'll see it's gonna be interesting. And the
weird thing is about for there's this course is shortened
as like no dog legs either. I did the Virtual Tour.
I think there was like one hole I would maybe
consider a dog lag.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
So it's it's an interesting track to have a signature event.
It's an interesting track to even put on the PGA Tour. Honestly,
it's it's a big sponsor title. That's I think this
is straight up pure money grab on the PGA Tour
part and for the players in the in the field.
So I'm not a huge fan of it, especially since
(10:05):
there's not going to be any carnage this week to
entertain me, to tantalize me and force me to watch it,
to watch these guys struggle. But I guess it's not
every week doesn't have to be for me.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Right, That's true. That's true. We'll get to the odds
in just a moment.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
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Speaker 1 (11:07):
Now for the truest Championship odds. All odds are courtesy
of DraftKings. As of Sunday night, some of these odds
may have changed. Scottie Scheffler is sitting this one out
after his easy win. We'll see him next week at
the PGA Championship, but we will see Rory McElroy, who
opens as a heavy favorite at plus four hundred four
to one. Odds for Rory Xanderschoffley, Ludwig Oberg, and Colin
(11:30):
Morikawa are all sixteen to one. Justin Thomas is twenty
to one, Patrick Cantlay twenty two to one, Victor Hovelin
and Tommy Fleetwood twenty eight to one. Jordan Speith and
Corey Conners are thirty to one, Russell Henley and Hideki
Matt Siyama are thirty five to one, and Shane Lowry
and Maverick McNeely are forty to one. Who do you
(11:51):
like from among the favorites?
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Bo It's This is a tricky week to bet. Honestly,
We're doing this show Sunday night Monday morning. The odds
are kind of moving all over the place already because
nobody knows anything. They don't know anything about the golf course.
They don't know anything about what the conditions are going
to be like for these guys. And Scotty Shuffler's not here,
so where that should be a blessing. We're not getting
good odds on Rory McElroy, obviously, because he just wanted
(12:14):
the damn Masters and put forth a great effort with
Shane Lowry at the Zurich. This is the kind of
golf course where I'm expecting to play guys who absolutely
can go super low if I can picture you going
thirty under par I'm going to bet on you. And
really that starts with Justin Thomas at twenty to one.
(12:36):
How many course records does Justin Thomas have on the
PGA Tour more than anybody else. This is the kind
of place where I can picture Justin Thomas going super
duper low in multiple rounds, kind of like Scotty did
last week. And this is an opportunity for Justin Thomas
to continue his ascent back to the top of the game.
And he's the one guy in this field where if
(12:58):
there's going to be a lot of short approach shots
and a lot of wedge work, like even if he's
scrambling or if he's just hitting wedges into small greens
guarded by lots and lots of bunkers, I want that
guy in my fox hole because he's going to make
a ton of birdies. So I'm my card is going
to start at twenty to one with Justin Thomas. But
I'm keeping a close eye on what Ludwig Oberg's line
(13:21):
comes in at because he's a little bit at the
short end of my liking for this tournament. But he's
the kind of guy again who could go super low.
I just don't like him on a shorter golf course
compared to Justin Thomas.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Right, Yeah, with the shorter course, I do wonder if
that sort of you know, goes away from Ludwig's strength.
And you know, like he was great at the Masters again,
the seventh place finish, but he was fifty fourth at
the RBC Heritage, which is another kind of short course,
and he missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open.
(13:54):
Now I totally agree with you if this is a
berdie fast that does play to Justin Thomas's strengths. Colin Morricawa,
I feel like his iron play could be a great
asset at the whistle Hicken course. But does he have
the short game? Yeah, probably not. Xander Schaffy. Shaffley is
fifth on tour and strokes gained unapproach, but weirdly he
(14:17):
ranks one hundred and fifty sixth on strokes gained putting.
But Xanders played pretty well lately, finished eighth at the Masters.
He's finished top twenty in his last three events. I'm
intrigued by Jordan Speith again bow he got red hot
over the weekend at the Byron Nelson He closed with
a sixty two on Sunday, and if Spith can keep
the driver in the bag on a shorter course for
(14:39):
a lot of the week, that could work to his advantage.
One other name I'll throw out Maverick McNeely has played
some really good golf lately. Who's third at the Valero
Texas Open, thirtieth the RBC Heritage. Very sound statistically. The
only thing I kind of worry about with Mav this
week is not get great out of the sand bow.
He ranks one hundred and fifty. It might be a
(15:01):
problem on this course with one hundred and eighteen bunkers
and Mav is one hundred and fifty third in sand
save percentage.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Yeah, and Xander. You mentioned Sander struggling on the greens lately.
That's not like him. My one concern with Xander is
Kenny make enough birdies. He's more of a grinder. He's
not a guy who goes super duper low on these
easier golf courses. He's the guy who wins making it
look easy on tougher golf courses.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Right, save Xander maybe for next week at Kuayl Hollow. Absolutely, Yeah,
all right, Now for some of the mid range options,
we have Wyndham Clark, Sung, J M. Daniel Berger, and
Keegan Bradley at forty five to one. Sepstraka, Sam Burns,
minwoo Lee and Jason Day are fifty to one, Taylor Pendrith,
Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson and Ben On are fifty five
(15:50):
to one, JJ Spawn and Denny McCarthy are sixty to one,
and Tony Finow, Michael Kim and Justin Rose are sixty
five to one. Anyone you like from this crew ball?
Speaker 2 (16:01):
No? Actually no. If I could, I'd bet that nobody
in this entire group would make the top ten because
none of these guys are birdie makers. None of these
guys are good wedge players. None of these guys have
amazing short games like they have their strengths. But this
is the dead zone for me. This is the one
where I went through each name and I said, Nope, nope, no, Yeah,
(16:25):
anybody bueller. I mean, there's a couple of guys I
like a little bit because of their recent form or
maybe how well they'd fit this course. Okay, but it's
not enough for me to bet real money on them.
It's just it's just it's just not a good group.
It's it's guys that are inflated in value or just
simply have no business in this group at all.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
I agree, mostly like a year ago, I might have
been interested in Sung JM on a course like this,
Oh yes, but like he ranks one hundred and seventy
eighth strokes gained unapproach this year, that would not seem
about well off. Yeah, he has been off. So until
Sung Jay dials at M dials it in, I don't
(17:10):
think he's a very good event he.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Becomes more im.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Exactly, so forty five to one, No thanks. What about
Sepstraka bow Like, that's the one guy from this group
I can maybe make a case for. He's finished top
fifteen and four of his last six events, five of
his last seven if you include the team event in
New Orleans, and Straka leads the tour and strokes gain
unapproach and ranks eighth in total strokes gain. So I
(17:35):
guess I can maybe make a case for him. What
say you?
Speaker 2 (17:39):
I like his game, I like the fit on short
golf courses he has shown good for him, But those
are all really tough golf courses that have teeth despite
their length. If the conditions stay the way they're looking
by Thursday, I don't think he can make enough berties.
He's more of a grinder again, where you're like, hey,
Sepstraca looks good on this seventy one hundred dollars seventy
one hundred yard golf course.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Can he win?
Speaker 2 (18:01):
And I was like, well, yeah, if the winning score
is fifteen to twenty under part, I'd say absolutely. But
this isn't the Honda Classic or the Cognizant Er somewhere
else that you're looking at playing that target practice golf
that he does play. His putting has not been good,
his short game has not been great. Can he make
enough birdies? This is still a strong field, especially at
(18:21):
the top. I think I'm just gonna skip that whole
group and say, if they beat me like Scotty beat
me last week, I'll tip my cap to the entire
group because I don't believe in him.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Fair all right, what about long shots? Is there anyone
with odds of seventy to one or longer who's worth
a look?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
So I'm going with one guy who's blazing hot, another
guy who can absolutely win this thing with enough birdies,
and the wedge game. How about Andrew Novak, The guy
is the hottest golfer in the world right now, maybe
other than Scotty Scheffler, but Andrew Novak's playing out of
his mind this season. Seventy to one for him in
this field, especially with this the way this course sets up.
(19:02):
We know Novak can go low. We know that he's
he's just as hot as it gets. So why not
bet seventy to one a guy who's better than every
single guy in the group ahead of us in the
mid the mid range, and then a Batia seventy five
to one. We've seen him win on these types of
golf courses where it's twenty it's gonna take twenty six
to thirty under par, and he's gonna have a whole
(19:24):
lot of pitching wedges into these little greens. I love
the ability for ax Shabatia to go super low, and
seventy five to one is insanely long for a guy
of his caliber, with with the game that he can
pull into a golf course that suits his eye like
this one.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Yeah, you you mentioned how hot Novak has been in
his last three events. Third at the Valero Texas Open,
second at the RBC Heritage and then he teamed with
Ben Griffin to win. This is a Classic of New Orleans.
So yes, that's a that's a pretty nice progression.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
And I know you'll rubber stamp endorsement on my last
long shot at one and ten to one. And another
guy who's red hot and can go super duper low,
mister Rasmus Hoyguard. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
I don't know when they finalized the field for this,
but I know at you know, in some form sheets
they had Hoyguard listed for both this and the other.
There is another tournament this week in Myrtle Beach. We
we are not going to be able to give you
any advice on the one flight Myrtle Beach Classic because
we're recording this on Sunday night and there were no yeah,
(20:32):
and there were no odds on for that event as
of Sunday night. But suffice it to say there are
quite a few players from the Corn Faery Tour teeing
it up in Myrtle Beach this week, so yeah, I
can definitely support you on that one. Rasmus has been
hot lately, but I think the long shot, I like
(20:54):
the most bo Brian Harmon is eighty to one. He
finished third at the RBC Heritage the last time he
played in a tournament, and he won the Valero Texas
Open a few weeks before that. This is a shorter course,
so Harmon's lack of distance won't hurt him. And this
is a guy who won the Open Championship. I kind
of like him on a Lynxy type of course, like
wick A Hissin seems to be. So yeah, I'm pretty
(21:18):
interested in Harmon At eighty to one.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
I want to endorse that because I will never bet
Brian Harmon, but that's that's a good pick because he
does fit the golf course.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
I didn't say I want to watch him ball, I
just want to win the money on him.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I will change the channel in a heartbeat if they're
featuring him in any featured group, because it's like, how
long do we have here?
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Exactly? Yeah, the pre shot routine does get a little
old after a while. All right, bo, who's on your
early betting card? All right?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
I got Justin Thomas twenty to one, Andrew Novak seventy
to one, OK Shabatia seventy five, and Erasmus Holyguard one
hundred and ten to one.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Yeah, I'm keeping mind pretty lean and mean this week too,
I'm gonna go with Jordan Speith at thirty two one.
Really liked what we saw from him at the Byron Nelson. Uh.
I am going to go with Novak at seventy to
one and Harmon at eighty to one. So just three
players this week now for our one and done picks.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Bow.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
You took Taylor Pendrith, he missed the cut by a
shot last week, just your second cut misser of the season.
I took Speith speak shot that sixty two on Sunday
to surge into fourth place, good for four hundred and
eighty five one hundred dollars. I closed a little bit
of ground on you, but you're still ahead of me
by more than two million dollars, and you are up
(22:35):
first this week, sir, who are you taking at the
Truest Championship?
Speaker 2 (22:40):
I am going to burn a big one. And this
is controversial, but at the Truest I'm gonna take Ludwig Oberg.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
Oh, Ludvig Oberg. Okay, you know what bo I'm gonna take.
I am gonna take Brian Harmon. Just have a feeling
about mister Harmon. A long shift if you have to
score me.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
On this one. I'm just gonna take my headset off
next week just let you have the floor.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
So that is going to do it for this week's
Betting Pros PGA podcast. Come join us again next week
when we will be previewing the second major of the year,
the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Until then, so long everyone, Thanks.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
For listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love
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Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. We have a new event on
the PGA Tour this week. It's going to be a
signature event with a star studded field, and it's going
to be played on an interesting new course. Bo and
I are excited to give you a betting preview of
the Truest Championship. But first we're going to quickly recap
(00:22):
the CJ. Cupp Byron Nelson, and I do mean quickly
because there's not much to recap. Quite frankly, Scotty Scheffler
blew away the field. Scotty finished thirty one under part
the Byron Nelson to win by eight strokes. He tied
the record for the lowest seventy two hole score in
PGA Tour history. Seemed like Scotty was going to break
the record, but he had a sloppy bogie on the
(00:43):
par three seventeenth and then he missed an eight foot
birdie putt on the par five eighteenth. But Scotty gets
his first win of the season. Eric Van Royan finishes
a distant second at minus twenty three. Sam Stevens was
third at minus twenty. This tournament was Scotty's from the start.
He opened with a sixty one. He followed it up
with rounds of sixty three, sixty six and sixty three bo.
(01:06):
On last week's show, we talked about the value proposition
of betting Scotty at plus two eighty, the lowest starting
odds we've seen for him this season. Those odds essentially
gave Scotty about a thirty six percent chance of winning.
We both thought there wasn't much value on Scotty at
those odds, but as good as Scotty has been the
past couple of years, he is certainly capable of making
(01:26):
anyone look silly for fading him, and I guess he
made us look silly. Bo Any thoughts on Scotty's win
at the Byron Nelson.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Well, we did go over this at length last week,
where we were kind of just hoping and praying he
didn't win because the odds were so terrible, But we
had a feeling that this could happen. And honestly, the
plus two to eighty or plus three twenty, whatever odds
you did bet Scotty on it was minus two to twenty.
(01:55):
After his sixty one on Thursday. He ends up going
wire to wire very convincing. He was aided by the
weather split. Him going off late and then early was
a massive advantage. So anybody that kind of went low
along with him in the opposite wave, they got absolutely
shafted by the weather delay at the six hour long
(02:17):
weather delay on Friday. And that's kind of what happened,
is you get somebody who might have been able to
maybe go low on Friday afternoon had to tee off
in much much more difficult conditions on Saturday morning. And
that was pretty much what eight stroke lead going into
the weekend, and it was all curtains after that. Scotty's
(02:39):
not going to relinquish a lead like that against a
field that honestly was pretty subpar pun intended. I guess
Scotty Scheffler's setting records. Nobody was going to catch him anyway.
He kind of doddled around the whole weekend where he
was still pedal to the metal, playing aggressively because there's
no trouble on that golf course. Even if Scotty went
out there and tried to do Happy Gilmour on every hole,
(03:01):
it wasn't going to be out of position or anything.
This is a machine of a golfer already, so tip
your cap to him. You're not gonna win any money
off of that bet anyway, What are you gonna win?
Three to one at best? I think I missed a
nice little parley to sweeten the odds for Scotty Scheffler
by a few hours. I got a tip on the
(03:22):
Kentucky Derby that would have won with sovereignty, but knowing
that I couldn't couldn't get the odds when I did
get the sovereignty pick. Oh well, we're moving on to
this week. It's gonna be a fun one because nobody
knows anything about this golf course. It's no cut. We
all know how most of us feel about no cut events. That,
(03:43):
by the looks of it, are going to be another
birdie fest.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Yeah, it should be, for sure. And Scotty, like you said, Bo,
the only time that course really showed any teeth all
weekend with Saturday morning, and I think Scotty not only
did he get to sleep in, I mean to sleep
in and enjoy a sumptuous brunch because he didn't tee
off until like after four pm local time. I think
(04:06):
on Saturday so he missed the worst of the weather
for sure, and you know, but he was gonna he
was swabbing the deck with the field no matter what.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
It was a bloodbath, yes it was.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Now we will preview the Truest Championship in just a moment,
but first.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
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(04:44):
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Speaker 1 (04:56):
So we've mentioned that the Truest Championship is a signature event.
It's got a twenty million dollar perse. There will be
eighty players in the field and there will not be
a thirty six hole cut. The Truest will be played
at the Wissa Hicken Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club
in Flowertown, Pennsylvania. I found out that Flowertown is the
hometown of one of my favorite hockey players of all time,
(05:19):
former New York Ranger and Wisconsin Badger goalie Mike Richter.
But never mind that the Wissa Hicken Course was designed
by aw Tillinghast and completed in nineteen twenty two. Tillinghast
is the architect responsible for two other iconic American courses,
Wingfoot and Bethpage Black, both in New York. The Wissa
(05:40):
Hicken Course is really interesting bo It's a parse seventy
measuring seven one hundred and nineteen yards. It's not a
long course and there are very few trees. There are, however,
a lot of bunkers, one hundred and eighteen of them
to be exact. The pars four seventh hole features something
called the G eight hazard. It's a group of thirteen
(06:02):
bunkers cutting across the middle of the fairway and they
are surrounded by rough Basically, it's just going to be
a forced lay up off the tee for the tour pros,
but I would imagine that the Great Hazard causes major
problems for high handicappers who play the witha Hicken course,
the fairways are pretty tight on some of the holes,
but not on all of them, and because the course
(06:23):
is fairly short, players will probably be able to keep
the driver of the bag on a lot of these holes.
Seven of the twelve par fours are four hundred and
thirty five yards or shorter. The two par fives are
five forty six and five point fifty three, pretty easily
reachable for the tour pros. One of the par threes
is one hundred and twenty two yards. This is not
(06:44):
a long course, but still it might be hard to
go flag hunting. A lot of the greens at the
Wissa Hicken Course are elevated, a lot of them are
two tiered. If you miss a green, there's a good
chance you're in a bunker and you've got a difficult
out to an elevated green. Because there's so few trees
on the course, the wind could be a factor here.
(07:04):
That was the case when they played the Senior Players
Championship at the Whissa Hicken Course in twenty sixteen. Bernard
Longer won with a score of one over par. That
was the highest ever winning score in that event. The
wind blew like crazy that week, so the scores were
way up, so what's the win going to be like
in the Philadelphia area during this tournament? Not too bad
(07:26):
from the looks of it. Winds should be in the
five to ten mile per hour range on three of
the four days with temperatures in the low to mid seventies.
Friday could be a little chillier and a little windier.
Winds are expected to be ten to fifteen miles an
hour and there's rain in the forecast. But what do
you make of the Wissa Hicken Course.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Well, if the wind does not pick up from less
than a one club wind, I think these guys are
going to go super duper low. This is going to
play even easier than TPC Craig grantch because of the
lack of distance. This is a golf course that without
wind is virtually defenseless against the top players in the world.
(08:05):
With the wind, it might get a little interesting. Because
it is a narrow course, it does have a lot
of nuance to it. A lot of these guys can
bomb it through the nuance and not take any prisoners
if the wind isn't causing them to think about those shots.
So if the wind stays at one club or less,
we're looking at another thirty under par type of week,
even with an elevated field. There's just it's just the
(08:28):
wind is really the only defense here.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Yeah, and the wind was you know, a major defensive
battle work in that Senior Championship nine years ago. But
without it, bo I mean, you would have to have
US open type rough and yeah, US open, the stint
meter would have to be rolling at like fifteen on
these greens or something.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
And you get that winged foot type of till has
to like vibe to it where we remember some majors
and some big events happen at wingd foot where you
get a little bit of wind and a long rough
and dried out conditions which I don't even think we're
gonna have dried out conditions for this golf course.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
That that's when these these types of tillhause courses can
grow some real teeth. But none of that is coming
into play this week. It's just gonna be a big
money grab for all eighty guys in the field.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Right, and if they do get the rain they're projecting.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
On Friday, it's gonna go even lower.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
Yeah, it could be Uh, it could be a birdie
fest on Saturday and Sunday if we get that, so
you know we'll see it's gonna be interesting. And the
weird thing is about for there's this course is shortened
as like no dog legs either. I did the Virtual Tour.
I think there was like one hole I would maybe
consider a dog lag.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
So it's it's an interesting track to have a signature event.
It's an interesting track to even put on the PGA Tour. Honestly,
it's it's a big sponsor title. That's I think this
is straight up pure money grab on the PGA Tour
part and for the players in the in the field.
So I'm not a huge fan of it, especially since
(10:05):
there's not going to be any carnage this week to
entertain me, to tantalize me and force me to watch it,
to watch these guys struggle. But I guess it's not
every week doesn't have to be for me.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Right, That's true. That's true. We'll get to the odds
in just a moment.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
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(10:43):
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Speaker 1 (11:07):
Now for the truest Championship odds. All odds are courtesy
of DraftKings. As of Sunday night, some of these odds
may have changed. Scottie Scheffler is sitting this one out
after his easy win. We'll see him next week at
the PGA Championship, but we will see Rory McElroy, who
opens as a heavy favorite at plus four hundred four
to one. Odds for Rory Xanderschoffley, Ludwig Oberg, and Colin
(11:30):
Morikawa are all sixteen to one. Justin Thomas is twenty
to one, Patrick Cantlay twenty two to one, Victor Hovelin
and Tommy Fleetwood twenty eight to one. Jordan Speith and
Corey Conners are thirty to one, Russell Henley and Hideki
Matt Siyama are thirty five to one, and Shane Lowry
and Maverick McNeely are forty to one. Who do you
(11:51):
like from among the favorites?
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Bo It's This is a tricky week to bet. Honestly,
We're doing this show Sunday night Monday morning. The odds
are kind of moving all over the place already because
nobody knows anything. They don't know anything about the golf course.
They don't know anything about what the conditions are going
to be like for these guys. And Scotty Shuffler's not here,
so where that should be a blessing. We're not getting
good odds on Rory McElroy, obviously, because he just wanted
(12:14):
the damn Masters and put forth a great effort with
Shane Lowry at the Zurich. This is the kind of
golf course where I'm expecting to play guys who absolutely
can go super low if I can picture you going
thirty under par I'm going to bet on you. And
really that starts with Justin Thomas at twenty to one.
(12:36):
How many course records does Justin Thomas have on the
PGA Tour more than anybody else. This is the kind
of place where I can picture Justin Thomas going super
duper low in multiple rounds, kind of like Scotty did
last week. And this is an opportunity for Justin Thomas
to continue his ascent back to the top of the game.
And he's the one guy in this field where if
(12:58):
there's going to be a lot of short approach shots
and a lot of wedge work, like even if he's
scrambling or if he's just hitting wedges into small greens
guarded by lots and lots of bunkers, I want that
guy in my fox hole because he's going to make
a ton of birdies. So I'm my card is going
to start at twenty to one with Justin Thomas. But
I'm keeping a close eye on what Ludwig Oberg's line
(13:21):
comes in at because he's a little bit at the
short end of my liking for this tournament. But he's
the kind of guy again who could go super low.
I just don't like him on a shorter golf course
compared to Justin Thomas.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Right, Yeah, with the shorter course, I do wonder if
that sort of you know, goes away from Ludwig's strength.
And you know, like he was great at the Masters again,
the seventh place finish, but he was fifty fourth at
the RBC Heritage, which is another kind of short course,
and he missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open.
(13:54):
Now I totally agree with you if this is a
berdie fast that does play to Justin Thomas's strengths. Colin Morricawa,
I feel like his iron play could be a great
asset at the whistle Hicken course. But does he have
the short game? Yeah, probably not. Xander Schaffy. Shaffley is
fifth on tour and strokes gained unapproach, but weirdly he
(14:17):
ranks one hundred and fifty sixth on strokes gained putting.
But Xanders played pretty well lately, finished eighth at the Masters.
He's finished top twenty in his last three events. I'm
intrigued by Jordan Speith again bow he got red hot
over the weekend at the Byron Nelson He closed with
a sixty two on Sunday, and if Spith can keep
the driver in the bag on a shorter course for
(14:39):
a lot of the week, that could work to his advantage.
One other name I'll throw out Maverick McNeely has played
some really good golf lately. Who's third at the Valero
Texas Open, thirtieth the RBC Heritage. Very sound statistically. The
only thing I kind of worry about with Mav this
week is not get great out of the sand bow.
He ranks one hundred and fifty. It might be a
(15:01):
problem on this course with one hundred and eighteen bunkers
and Mav is one hundred and fifty third in sand
save percentage.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Yeah, and Xander. You mentioned Sander struggling on the greens lately.
That's not like him. My one concern with Xander is
Kenny make enough birdies. He's more of a grinder. He's
not a guy who goes super duper low on these
easier golf courses. He's the guy who wins making it
look easy on tougher golf courses.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Right, save Xander maybe for next week at Kuayl Hollow. Absolutely, Yeah,
all right, Now for some of the mid range options,
we have Wyndham Clark, Sung, J M. Daniel Berger, and
Keegan Bradley at forty five to one. Sepstraka, Sam Burns,
minwoo Lee and Jason Day are fifty to one, Taylor Pendrith,
Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson and Ben On are fifty five
(15:50):
to one, JJ Spawn and Denny McCarthy are sixty to one,
and Tony Finow, Michael Kim and Justin Rose are sixty
five to one. Anyone you like from this crew ball?
Speaker 2 (16:01):
No? Actually no. If I could, I'd bet that nobody
in this entire group would make the top ten because
none of these guys are birdie makers. None of these
guys are good wedge players. None of these guys have
amazing short games like they have their strengths. But this
is the dead zone for me. This is the one
where I went through each name and I said, Nope, nope, no, Yeah,
(16:25):
anybody bueller. I mean, there's a couple of guys I
like a little bit because of their recent form or
maybe how well they'd fit this course. Okay, but it's
not enough for me to bet real money on them.
It's just it's just it's just not a good group.
It's it's guys that are inflated in value or just
simply have no business in this group at all.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
I agree, mostly like a year ago, I might have
been interested in Sung JM on a course like this,
Oh yes, but like he ranks one hundred and seventy
eighth strokes gained unapproach this year, that would not seem
about well off. Yeah, he has been off. So until
Sung Jay dials at M dials it in, I don't
(17:10):
think he's a very good event he.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Becomes more im.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
Exactly, so forty five to one, No thanks. What about
Sepstraka bow Like, that's the one guy from this group
I can maybe make a case for. He's finished top
fifteen and four of his last six events, five of
his last seven if you include the team event in
New Orleans, and Straka leads the tour and strokes gain
unapproach and ranks eighth in total strokes gain. So I
(17:35):
guess I can maybe make a case for him. What
say you?
Speaker 2 (17:39):
I like his game, I like the fit on short
golf courses he has shown good for him, But those
are all really tough golf courses that have teeth despite
their length. If the conditions stay the way they're looking
by Thursday, I don't think he can make enough berties.
He's more of a grinder again, where you're like, hey,
Sepstraca looks good on this seventy one hundred dollars seventy
one hundred yard golf course.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Can he win?
Speaker 2 (18:01):
And I was like, well, yeah, if the winning score
is fifteen to twenty under part, I'd say absolutely. But
this isn't the Honda Classic or the Cognizant Er somewhere
else that you're looking at playing that target practice golf
that he does play. His putting has not been good,
his short game has not been great. Can he make
enough birdies? This is still a strong field, especially at
(18:21):
the top. I think I'm just gonna skip that whole
group and say, if they beat me like Scotty beat
me last week, I'll tip my cap to the entire
group because I don't believe in him.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Fair all right, what about long shots? Is there anyone
with odds of seventy to one or longer who's worth
a look?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
So I'm going with one guy who's blazing hot, another
guy who can absolutely win this thing with enough birdies,
and the wedge game. How about Andrew Novak, The guy
is the hottest golfer in the world right now, maybe
other than Scotty Scheffler, but Andrew Novak's playing out of
his mind this season. Seventy to one for him in
this field, especially with this the way this course sets up.
(19:02):
We know Novak can go low. We know that he's
he's just as hot as it gets. So why not
bet seventy to one a guy who's better than every
single guy in the group ahead of us in the
mid the mid range, and then a Batia seventy five
to one. We've seen him win on these types of
golf courses where it's twenty it's gonna take twenty six
to thirty under par, and he's gonna have a whole
(19:24):
lot of pitching wedges into these little greens. I love
the ability for ax Shabatia to go super low, and
seventy five to one is insanely long for a guy
of his caliber, with with the game that he can
pull into a golf course that suits his eye like
this one.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Yeah, you you mentioned how hot Novak has been in
his last three events. Third at the Valero Texas Open,
second at the RBC Heritage and then he teamed with
Ben Griffin to win. This is a Classic of New Orleans.
So yes, that's a that's a pretty nice progression.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
And I know you'll rubber stamp endorsement on my last
long shot at one and ten to one. And another
guy who's red hot and can go super duper low,
mister Rasmus Hoyguard. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
I don't know when they finalized the field for this,
but I know at you know, in some form sheets
they had Hoyguard listed for both this and the other.
There is another tournament this week in Myrtle Beach. We
we are not going to be able to give you
any advice on the one flight Myrtle Beach Classic because
we're recording this on Sunday night and there were no yeah,
(20:32):
and there were no odds on for that event as
of Sunday night. But suffice it to say there are
quite a few players from the Corn Faery Tour teeing
it up in Myrtle Beach this week, so yeah, I
can definitely support you on that one. Rasmus has been
hot lately, but I think the long shot, I like
(20:54):
the most bo Brian Harmon is eighty to one. He
finished third at the RBC Heritage the last time he
played in a tournament, and he won the Valero Texas
Open a few weeks before that. This is a shorter course,
so Harmon's lack of distance won't hurt him. And this
is a guy who won the Open Championship. I kind
of like him on a Lynxy type of course, like
wick A Hissin seems to be. So yeah, I'm pretty
(21:18):
interested in Harmon At eighty to one.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
I want to endorse that because I will never bet
Brian Harmon, but that's that's a good pick because he
does fit the golf course.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
I didn't say I want to watch him ball, I
just want to win the money on him.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I will change the channel in a heartbeat if they're
featuring him in any featured group, because it's like, how
long do we have here?
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Exactly? Yeah, the pre shot routine does get a little
old after a while. All right, bo, who's on your
early betting card? All right?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
I got Justin Thomas twenty to one, Andrew Novak seventy
to one, OK Shabatia seventy five, and Erasmus Holyguard one
hundred and ten to one.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Yeah, I'm keeping mind pretty lean and mean this week too,
I'm gonna go with Jordan Speith at thirty two one.
Really liked what we saw from him at the Byron Nelson. Uh.
I am going to go with Novak at seventy to
one and Harmon at eighty to one. So just three
players this week now for our one and done picks.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
Bow.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
You took Taylor Pendrith, he missed the cut by a
shot last week, just your second cut misser of the season.
I took Speith speak shot that sixty two on Sunday
to surge into fourth place, good for four hundred and
eighty five one hundred dollars. I closed a little bit
of ground on you, but you're still ahead of me
by more than two million dollars, and you are up
(22:35):
first this week, sir, who are you taking at the
Truest Championship?
Speaker 2 (22:40):
I am going to burn a big one. And this
is controversial, but at the Truest I'm gonna take Ludwig Oberg.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
Oh, Ludvig Oberg. Okay, you know what bo I'm gonna take.
I am gonna take Brian Harmon. Just have a feeling
about mister Harmon. A long shift if you have to
score me.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
On this one. I'm just gonna take my headset off
next week just let you have the floor.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
So that is going to do it for this week's
Betting Pros PGA podcast. Come join us again next week
when we will be previewing the second major of the year,
the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Until then, so long everyone, Thanks.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
For listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love
the show, the best freeway to support us is by
leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow
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