Your ULTIMATE Belmont Stakes Betting Guide: Post Positions, Odds & Long Shots (Ep. 712)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's
time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five
Belmont Stakes. That's right, it's the third leg of the
Triple Crown going down this weekend. I'm ros Seth Wilcock
and I'm joined by a couple of the best railbirds
in the business, including the host of the Betting Pros
Daily Juice podcast, Matt Brawl. Matt, how are you if

(00:22):
you round out the horse racing majors for twenty twenty five?

Speaker 2 (00:25):
You know, I'm excited and this is actually going to
be I think a more interesting race than the Preakness,
even though we had the craziness with the Preakness and
how journalism came from behind to win the race. We
have two horses in an environment where we haven't seen
this really in terms of now a rematch a one

(00:46):
v one.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
I'm psyched.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
I think this is going to be a really interesting
betting opportunity, and I think the handle is going to
be up because the preck Die handle was way down.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Well, I'm happy to have you on board today. We're
also once again tapping into the big brain of Luke Minaldo. Luke,
Thanks for linking up with us. How are you today,
my friend?

Speaker 4 (01:04):
Hey, thanks for having me on. I'm doing great. I'm
excited for a great Belmont, even with a small field.
I think there's a lot of different possibilities for the
final outcome, which is incredible. I think it's really going
to come down to a couple of the big horses,
journalism and sovereignty like Matt alluded to, and just a
rematch like this is really cool when it's a rubber match.

Speaker 1 (01:26):
One hundred percent agreed with you man. Before we jump
into the program, I first wanted to shout out everyone
who's watching and listening. If you're joining us on the
BP YouTube channel, thank you. Please give this video a
thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Also
subscribe to the channel if you're new. We're trying to
hit one hundred thousand subscribers this year and with your
help we can get there. And let's go ahead and
dive in, starting with post positions and what they mean. Luke,

(01:49):
two questions for you right off the rip man. One
for those newer tibetting ponies, can you explain how the
Belmont maybe differs from the Derby and the Preakness, and
also can you please break down some of these certain
gates and how they historically help or hurt when it
comes to the Belmont, and how they might impact betting
cards this weekend.

Speaker 4 (02:06):
It's an interesting year because it's the second year in
a row that the the Belmont will be run at
the Big A instead of Big Sandy, while the renovations
are going.

Speaker 5 (02:16):
On over at Elmont Park.

Speaker 4 (02:19):
So usually it's it's a mile and a half, which
is why it's a test of the champion.

Speaker 5 (02:23):
It's the hardest, longest race. This time it's gonna be or.

Speaker 4 (02:26):
This year again it's gonna be a mile and a quarter,
which is.

Speaker 5 (02:30):
It's just a different race.

Speaker 4 (02:33):
It has everything to do with the smaller track at Aqueduct,
but I think it's gonna play into that's that's actually
that's why there's a lot of different scenarios.

Speaker 5 (02:44):
Because it's not as long.

Speaker 4 (02:46):
If it was just the original setup, I would think
it's gonna come down to just sovereignty or journalism, the
two late closers really battling it out. But because it's
a mile and a quarter, I think it opens up
to a lot of the front runners being to have
openings to have get out in front like Rodriguez, to
get out in front and just run away with it,

(03:06):
whereas you might not have the opportunity at the the
longer format. In terms of post positions, everything inside of seven.
All the winners have come from inside seven.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
Okay, Matt. With this being said, are there any big
name horses and keyslots that you're fading or backing this weekend?

Speaker 2 (03:26):
I mean, I wouldn't say that post position is a
monster deal with only eight horses in the field for
me at least, I mean, I think with the mile
on a quarter. The thing about the Belmont is that
it's been so chalky over history, but that's a different track.
Like generally speaking, the Belmont has been won by the favorites.
So if you look at this field and you talk

(03:47):
about sovereignty and you talk about journalism, I think you
have to look past those two and I'm not sure
there's a horse that has a bad post pasion and
say like, Okay, I couldn't bet that horse because they're
too far on the outside. Just given the fact that
this hole, as we talked about it is looking to
the inside, there's a lot of horses that have decent
post positions that are not journalism and not sovereignty that
I don't think you exclude them just because of where

(04:09):
they pulled the number.

Speaker 1 (04:10):
Okay, it seems like the Derby is probably the most
impactful when it comes to post positions. Matt, is that
what kind of what you would agree with?

Speaker 2 (04:16):
I mean, yeah, it's the field, right, I mean, there's
twenty horses in the Derby. This is such a smaller field, Like,
you're not gonna have the same problems getting around if
you need to navigate and get through traffic.

Speaker 3 (04:26):
You don't have that same problem here at the Belmont.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
Okay, And before we get to the odds, be sure
download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android.
With the Sportsbook Sync feature, you can automatically track your
bets across all major books in one spot. Easily monitor
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and of course some parlays as well. Create custom betting
systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. Get a

(04:51):
free trial of Betting Pros Premium by downloading the app
at Bettingpros dot com, slash apps and activating your trout
on the upgrade screen. Now let's go ahead. General, Let's
break down the field. Coming off his win at the Preakness,
it's Journalism, who is eight to five currently as the favorite,
plus one sixty in American onds. We also have Kentucky
Derby winner Sovereignty back in the mix at two to one,

(05:12):
Bieza four to one, Rodriguez is six to one, hill
Road coming in at ten to one, Crudo at fifteen
to one, and uncaged the long shot at thirty to one.
Let's start by breaking down the overlays and the underlays.
Matt in your eyes, do you see any overlays offering
value or maybe some underlays that you're avoiding this weekend?

Speaker 2 (05:32):
I mean, Bids is gonna be an interesting horse and
third in the Derby did not raise the Preakness. Have
brother of Mazed won theer three Derby Belmont Steaks winner
Door Knock as well with Living Pratt rioting. I really
want to see what that horse looks like. And in
terms of like value, it's tough, because again I think

(05:55):
it's Chalky. I think it's the two horses, and I
think we're gonna wind up seeing another battle between journalism
and sovereignty.

Speaker 3 (06:02):
And so that's one two in a lot of ways
to me.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
And then if you're looking for a trifecta, I'm looking
for the third place horse on this So to me,
I mean, I want to see where the odds go
four to one, five to one. What do we get
out of a besa as terms of as we get
closer to post position, then you can try to add
that in.

Speaker 3 (06:19):
But given value, I mean there's some long shots. I mean,
Crudo's interesting.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
I mean, if you like Bobby Flay, you want to
go with that whole angle you want to go, you
want to go with that. I mean, could be fifteen,
could be twenty to one, not a bad post vision,
right at number in, right in the middle of the pack,
not horrible.

Speaker 3 (06:35):
But I really feel like this is going to be
a chalky race.

Speaker 1 (06:39):
Luke, do you have similar feelings that it really will
come down to sovereignty and journalism at the end of
this thing.

Speaker 5 (06:44):
I really do.

Speaker 4 (06:45):
And I think Baeza will come down there and he'll
probably end up being the third that Matt was talking
about as he as he has been to these horses
in the derby, I really think maybe Crudo I've something
to justify, could be the value in this race. As
Matt was talking about the Bobby Flay Angel, Bobby Flay

(07:06):
has been in the winner's circle at Belmont before, and
Crudo is a Pletcher trained horse, and Todd Pletcher as you.

Speaker 5 (07:14):
Know, on Belmont Day past amount of Belmont's.

Speaker 4 (07:18):
There's been sixty horses that have either one placed or
show and he's been responsible for twenty six and a
half percent of them. So his horses will finish in
the money. And so I think Crudo it's going to
bring the value to this trifecta super efector and if
he were to go off and somehow win, then the
exotics just exponentially increase.

Speaker 1 (07:42):
Matt, is that how you're pretty much playing it when
it comes to the exotics. Not everyone wants to get
invested in outrights, but exotics have become wildly popular over
the years. Is that what you're doing? Are you putting
journalism sovereignty? And then Beza maybe is that third horse
or do you have any other exotics that you are
going to be playing this weekend?

Speaker 2 (07:59):
I mean this, this is I don't want to sound boring,
because no one likes chalk, right, everybody likes the bomb.
Everybody wants to see, you know, somebody come from the outside.
Everyone wants to see the long shot come in and
cast your ticket. But forty two point six percent of
the time the favorite has won the Belmont. So I
think if you're talking about who's favored sovereignty or journalism,

(08:20):
you can take your pick there and as you rotate
around if you want to do exactly doesn't have different tickets.
With those two at the top, you can rotate them.
But I really do think those are your two best horses.
And you're talking about third place, that is Crudo in Beza,
And yes, those are the two horses that I would
look to if you're gonna go for a superfecta, if
you're going to go for a trifectaga, what are you
gonna play out?

Speaker 3 (08:39):
Those are the two horses I think can have a
say as this goes.

Speaker 2 (08:44):
But just I know, this is only the second race
you know that we've seen outside of the Belmont at Saratoga.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
But it's still got going to be chalky with these
two horses.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
And frankly, the Belmont wants that, I mean the Belmont
wants to They're pitting this as a heavyweight fight between
two contenders.

Speaker 3 (09:01):
And the field.

Speaker 2 (09:02):
Not to say that they're not going to be involved,
but it really does feel like we've got two horses
on the collision course.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
Okay, question for you here, Luke, like gun to the head,
is there a difference for you in the two heavy hitters,
Like is there one way you would lean or is
it just a sprinkle on both of them and hoping
you can make some type of money because it feels
like it's gonna be tough at plus one sixty right
now for journalism and two to one for sovereignty to
make really anything if you do go with both of

(09:29):
them on the outright.

Speaker 4 (09:30):
You know, when we talked before the Derby, I said
that if journalism could win the Derby, he could win
the triple Crown. I would like to stand by that.
I think the biggest thing against journalism is the head
to head at the Derby. It's there's not a lot
of horses that could take Journalism's kick like that and

(09:51):
stare him down eye to eye and beat him. So
the mental edge would go to Sovereignty a little bit
bit bit there as well as the rest because he's
been off since the derby, whereas this will be journalism's
third race in five weeks. While and while that is
the true spirit of the Triple Crown, without the Triple
Crown on the line and without sovereignty having to have

(10:11):
run at the Preakness, I just it'll be interesting to
see if journalism can really find find that late kick
to battle them. And it would be cool to see
something kind of like Aladar in a firms where it
was just the last half mile or last quarter mile,
just neck and neck, just pace for pace.

Speaker 5 (10:30):
And it'll be really cool to see if we can
get a photo.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
Finish like that year you kind of on that same
wavelength there, Matt.

Speaker 3 (10:36):
Yeah, I mean I think that's a dream, right.

Speaker 2 (10:38):
I mean that's if you, as the volks at the Belmont,
you know, what do you want out of this race?
I think it's exactly that where you have these two
horses battling it out down the stretch and you get
really exciting last quarter quarter mile between these two horses
and they get to stare each other down and go
after it. I mean, these horses are competitive, they both
want to want to win. They know what they're in
and the jacket and the jockeys do as well well.

(11:00):
I mean I think if you're a horse racing fan,
this race has far more intrigue. And even if you're
a casual, this race will bring you to the television
set before the Preakness, because all that cold water got
thrown on there. The second that sovereignty said I'm not
running and I'm looking ahead to the Belmont, it was
like okay, But then the Belmont, the preak This rather,
it turned out to be one of the most insane

(11:21):
races we've seen in recent memory, with the amount of
contact in weaving through traffic.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
So I think we're set up.

Speaker 2 (11:27):
The hope is that the race will deliver because of
the excitement that's going to be built up towards it.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
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(12:38):
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Speaker 1 (13:00):
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and move into some long shot picks. Luke, do you
have any sleeper picks that we should consider jumping on
ahead of first call? Or is this just hey, we're
completely betting the chalk and leaving all the long shots
for another race.

Speaker 4 (13:17):
I really think the long shots are kind of donations
in this you know, in this race, it's just it's
not you might you might get lucky, like like people
did with Dorknock last year. I think he went off
at seventeen to one. But you know, like Matt said,
historically the Belmont has been a favorites race, and especially

(13:38):
with these two, I guess you could see a long
shot would be like I said earlier, Rodriguez, and that
would take him. He's not even a long shot, but
that would take him. Bob Baffort, That's another thing. One
thing that gets lost in the controversy surrounding Bob Baffort
is that he raced. He trains all of his horses
to be as fast as they can be, and he

(13:59):
loves to get his horses out in front and knows
that the simplest way to win a race is get
out in front and hold the lead. And if Rodriguez
can do that, especially in the shorter format, I really
think that that would be the biggest most likely I
guess horse to outside of the top two to finish
number one.

Speaker 1 (14:19):
What about for you, Matt, do you have a yolo ticket,
any big payout play that we're not gonna hold you
to that you might be sprinkling a little bit on
this weekend.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yeah, not to tell like a parrot to Luke, but
I think he's absolutely right about the Rodrigaez thing. The
question is what do you consider a long shot? Because
where are the odds gonna go come post time for
Rodriguez five to one, four to one, I mean, is
that really a long shot per se as to what
we're considering winning the Wood Memorial. The problem is we
haven't seen but Reguez run, so like, we haven't seen

(14:48):
him in a race up against the two favorites in
journalism and sovereignty, So that's kind of an x factor.
So how does that horse run because he hasn't run
the two previous triple Crown legs. Maybe fresher, maybe you know,
more energy kicked down the stretch, So that would be
a horse I would look to. I mean, if you
want a Yolo ticket, leave sovereignty and leave journalism off.

(15:09):
I mean, you want to go crazy, just no take take.
If you knock off those two horses, you have six
horses left. Find a couple that you like, Crudo, Beza
and Rodriguez. I mean, find some order to go ahead
and maybe a box those three horses, and you're gonna get
crazier odds. I mean that's how I think if you're
looking for the most like shocking out of outcomes, neither

(15:29):
one of those two top horses place.

Speaker 3 (15:31):
But again I think Luke's right. I mean, that's basically
a donation.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
You're you're creating a ticket just for the fun of it,
knowing it's gonna lose.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
No shot for on cage thirty to one. Is that
also a donation in your guys's eyes kind of?

Speaker 2 (15:45):
I mean it's I think there's problems again, there's going
to be long shots. The Peter Pan Steaks came in six.
I mean it's it's Pletcher, so obviously you have a
name horse there. It did not run in either of
the races, so uncaged maybe. I mean again, it feels
like a donation. You can take the flyer if you want,
but I don't think. I don't want to completely throw

(16:07):
water on it. But yeah, kinda no.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
The same for you, Luke.

Speaker 4 (16:11):
I think if you wanted to go with a long
shot and only bet one, it would be on cage
just because of like the lottery ticket of odds.

Speaker 5 (16:18):
I liked him a lot more before the Peter Pan.

Speaker 4 (16:21):
I was looking at him looking towards this race. I
had my eye on him as because the Peter Pan,
you know, can be a good feeder into this race.
But I was very disheartened by his six plates run there,
and I was really actually surprised that they ran them
out here again for the Belmont.

Speaker 5 (16:37):
Because of that.

Speaker 4 (16:39):
To what Matt said, because it's such a small field,
if you did take journalism in sovereignty, album wanted to
do that moonshot, you could do a twenty cent trifecta box.
I think it would only be thirty six dollars and
it's most likely going to lose because both those guys
aren't probably going to fail to hit the board. But
it's not as expense to play what the lottery ticket

(17:02):
and Matt said, and you know, for thirty six bucks,
if those both those horses fail to hit, it's gonna
be way more than thirty six dollars.

Speaker 1 (17:09):
Okay, well, gentlemen, it was an absolute pleasure chopping up
with you once again on this episode. That's going to
do it for us today on the Betting Pros Podcast.
Thank you so much for watching. Please be sure to
give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it.
Also subscribe if you're new and don't forget to download
that BP app and sink your sportsbooks today. For Luke
Minaldo and Matt Pearl, I'm Seth Wilcock take care of y'all.

Speaker 6 (17:31):
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Speaker 3 (17:45):
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Speaker 6 (17:47):
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