May 2, 2023 • 16 mins
Discover how to bet on the Kentucky Derby and win with Joe Pisapia and Mike Somich (@Somobomb18). They run through the odds, post positions, the long shots & favorites, and Mike's gameplan to maximize his winnings to help you succeed in the biggest horse race of the year! Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:00
Post Positions and Favorites - 0:02:38
Derby Long Shots - 0:06:36
How Mike is betting the Derby - 0:13:51
Closing - 0:15:08
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Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody at betting Pros's time to place your bets.
It's me Joey Paid Joe Pizapia, and today we're going
to take a look at the upcoming race. The one
hundred and forty ninth Kentucky Derby is upon us this
weekend and to help us break it down from the
Magic Mike Show and Dudes who Bet Daily is the one,
the only Mike Samich. You could follow him on the
Twitter machine at Samobam eighteen. Of course check out all
(00:24):
of his great work at racing dudes. And I'm so
happy he's here because I know very little about horse racing.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
There you go. I'm just keeping it real here on
the show. I always do. But I will say this.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
The first sports bet I ever made it a Vegas casino,
was on the Kentucky Derby. It was unjustified and I
want it. It was a magical day. It was fantastic.
I was there for a wedding mic it was an
Elvis wedding. We had the wedding, we went out there,
we hung out, we went to the sportsbook for a
little while. After I said, let's put some money on
the Kentucky Derby. When you know it, it ended up
returning some cash. So I want you to pick much
(00:56):
better winners than I would pick on this. So, Mike,
I appreciate you being on the show. And how much
dancing do you do on the Magic Mic Show?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
That's what I want to know.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Well, you know you got to check out the show
to watch. We we got the YouTube stream now every
week and it gets pretty crazy over there. You never
know what's gonna happen. It's it's a class to be here. Joe,
thank you very much for having me justify phenomenal horse
there well, first first triple crown winner in years. It
was great to see him get the job done. It's
a beauty of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby. This
is the one race that everyone bets every year and
(01:24):
it's going to be really interesting after having Rich Strike
win it last year. Is the fastest opening half mile
in the Kentucky Derby history. A historic payout from a
win perspective, I would expect you're not going to have
any monster prices, but that means there's gonna be a
ton of value in those middle prices because of how
many people are going to play these long shots. This
year because of the result last year.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
All right, well they're going to break down all the
horses and obviously we're gonna break down the turf. We're
gonna break down also talking about you know where they're
going to be you know posted, because that's very important
too in terms of positions. So before we get to
all that, just quick reminder. Also bet mgm is offering
one thousand dollars new users in their first free bet.
Sign up to a bet mgm and use that promo
code Juice, and you get paid back up to one
(02:04):
thousand dollars in free bonuses even if you don't win.
So sign up for bet mgm today and use that
promo code Juice when you do, and don't forget to
subscribe to betting Pros YouTube channel. Is when you do
and you click that little bell for notifications and you
drop a comment below tell me who you think is
going to win the derby, you can win an opportunity
to get a free premium upgrade to Betting Pros Premium.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
So if you're looking for access to exclusive.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Picks, top rate of player props, whatever it might be,
Betting Pros Premium has you covered. You get sign up
today without even waiting for the contest. Bettingpros dot com
slash upgrade. Start betting smarter, not harder. That's a good
thing to do, So let's talk about it first. Obviously
we have the favorite is forte, so we know that
we're gonna get to your long shots in the second.
Walk me through, Mike, what's going on here in terms
(02:44):
of the position, how important it is for some of
these horses, and who runs well on this track.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yeah, eight of the last ten winners have been forwardly
placed in the Kentucky Derby, so right out of the gate,
since we switched over to the points system, you've seen
horses that are more forwardly placed win. It's one of
the biggest knocks against sitting at three to one, he's
not a horse that is generally forwardly placed. So he's
gonna sit mid to backpack and try and make one
big run around the far turn and see if he's
able to get the job done. The fifteen post where
(03:11):
he drew is not a problem for him. I mean,
he did not want to be all the way on
the inside because that can get you in a lot
of traffic trouble in there. But drawing that fifteen post
would set him up to get his one run in.
The question is how wide is he haveing to go
and what type of trip is Irad or t Is
gonna be able to get on him. Now he's got
arguably the best jockey in the world, so that's a
huge positive for Forte here. He is won twice at Keenland,
(03:33):
so he likes these Kentucky tracks. The question is gonna
be where is he gonna be and is he gonna
be close enough to be able to get the job
done down the lane?
Speaker 1 (03:41):
And he have Forte at one ninety with the points
he a practical move at one sixty, Angel Vampire one
fifty four, and then a few other horses behind that.
So Forte obviously the heavy favorite three to one. Here
we're looking at Tapa Trice at five to one. Can
you make a case for any of the other favorites
who are in let's say that ten under range here
(04:02):
that you think might have a shot or is it
really Fourte's race to lose in that sense?
Speaker 3 (04:07):
The other horse that's under ten to one, I think
that you got to take a look at is Angel
of Empire. Angel of Empire is a Bradcox trainee Flavian
Pratt picked this horse over Kings Barnes, so we're going
to talk about a little later as well, the six
horse for Todd Pletcher. This horse won in two different ways,
which I love to see. So it was able to
win down in Louisiana in a pace collapse, so they
had a really fast pace and you saw Angel of
(04:28):
Empire be able to close into that and get the
job done. Then in the Arkansas Derby, you had every
horse pretty much get a good trip and a reasonable pace,
so there was no one that could really complain about
about the run they got. And Angel Vampire actually smoked
that field one by four and a half lengths, never
looked like a loser, saved ground and then tilted off
the rail and just had this big kick coming from home.
The biggest issue with Angel of Empire again, much like Forte,
(04:50):
gonna want to come from off the pace and so
the question is how is that going to set up?
So those would be the two sub ten to one
horses I'm interested in. When you look at horses like
tap at Trice who drew the five post here maybe
the most talented horse in this race long term, in
a world of trouble in this specific spot. He's run
five times. He has never broken well. All five of
those races broken poorly. When you're drawn in that inside
(05:12):
part of this race and you break out of that
five gate and you don't break well, you're going to
have fifteen horses to your outside just crushing down towards
the rail because they're all going to be trying to
get position, and they're all faster than him. You could
easily see him sitting in twentieth going under the finish
line for the first time. And that is a recipe
for disaster. When you look at practical move ten to one,
the horse is coming out of California, has looked much
(05:34):
better as a three year old than a two year old.
But his sire is practical joke, so his dad's practical joke,
a horse that does not want two turns at all.
So there's a distance concern here with practical move. And
when you look at the last two races, was able
to win go in two turns a mile sixteenth and
then a mile and an eighth. We're going to go
a mile and a quarter. So for long longer here
today than his last race. He was starting to breathe
(05:54):
a little heavily going down that lane there, and he
tripped out, which means in horse racing terms, he got
to save ground on both turns. He had no issues
from a traffic perspective. He was able to sit close
to the pace and then just make one move. That's
the easiest way to get a distance that you struggle getting.
So he got the perfect setup, perfect trip in both
of those races, and specifically in the sanity of the derby,
(06:16):
he barely held on to Mandarin Hero, who didn't qualify
for the race, and probably would be thirty to one
forty to one if he does make it into the
field and you're sitting there staring at ten to one
on practical move, I have a lot of concerns about
him being able to get the actual distance.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
There was some good phase there, including tap a trice
a five to one.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
I'm sure it's gonna be a popular bet, but you
make a really good case there on the fade on
that horse. Everybody loves long shots, and everybody loves some
of these ones that are a little bit fuller out
in terms of odds, because it's fun to bet. Angel
Vampire is at eight to one so that is definitely
more of a long shot. Is there somebody that's even
further down the list where you think has a real
shot to win this Derby race.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
I'm going to go to the eight horse mage here,
and this was one where I picked this horse to
run second to four in the Florida Derby. Ended up
running second there. But we talked about the trip with
practical move. Mage has gotten an awful trip in his
last two races, so did not break well in either
of those races, and that is really the biggest concern
with Mage. Mage needs to break well on Saturday to
(07:15):
be a factor. But if he breaks well and is
sitting in that first five horses and he has the
early speed to do that, if he breaks he is
a very very live long shot at fifteen to one.
If you go back in the watches Florida Derby, he
breaks poorly, he gets bumped early, he's forced four wide
and is in dead last. And this is the horse
who wants to be upfront, is in dead last. He
(07:35):
makes a massive move, actually hits the lead and just
gets run down by fourte there in the last sixteenth
of a mile. To me, when you have fourt a
three to one, and this horse ran second to him
last time with a terrible trip, and you're sitting there
staring at fifteen to one. There's a lot of value
there if Mage can just break out of the gate.
Now it's a big if, but if he does, I
would have him somewhere in that five to seven to
(07:57):
one range, not fifteen to one. So I do think
there's quite a bit of value on me, all right.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Kings Barnes is another one that you've got kind of
locked and loaded here.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Why kings Barnes is interesting because it's it's really a
wild card in a lot of ways. Broke his maiden
n ack Gulfstream Park and it was a race that
didn't really produce any other great horses, so you don't
know how good it is. He went down to Tampa
and he won that race really easily, but the horse
that ran second ran second to last in the Tampa
Bay Derby, so not a ton behind him there either.
(08:26):
Then he goes to Louisiana and wins Louisiana Derby, which
is a major prep for this Kentucky Derby race. But
he is able to do it. In these He sets
the pace and wins with the slowest six furlongs that
we have seen in any major Kentucky Derby prep since
the points era started, so really an easy trip for Kingsbarnes.
So we're not sure how good he is, but he's
(08:47):
got tactical speed in a race that does not feature
a lot of tactical speed. He should be sitting close
to the pace, and we talked about this earlier. Eight
of the first last ten Derby winners have all been
sitting close to the pace. He checks all of those
boxes and that sixth post position is a great draw
for him. You're going to see speed from the two
horse verifying from the four horse confidence game. He's gonna
be able to sit right behind those horses and get
(09:09):
that dream trip here. We don't know if he's good enough,
and he's probably the third most talented pletcher in this race.
On top of that, it took him forever. He just
got a jockey over the weekend, so it took that
long for someone to actually pick up the mount here,
which was shocking, and Flavian Pratt picked Angel Vampire over
kings Barnes. But all that being said, kings Barnes probably
(09:30):
going to be one of the best horses that's sitting
in that first flight, So twelve to one is a
nice price on him.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I know there's another horse you have your eye on
to Dermasotagake, which you know is another one where you're
looking at the board and you're looking at returns ten
to one.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
That's a pretty good number there.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Why are you excited about this one that's running out
of the seventeenth position.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Well, this is this is an interesting horse because we
have the least amount of information on Dermosotagate. This is
the wild card in the field. If you will, won
the UA Derby and this horse is from Japan. Neither.
We never had a Derby winner from Japan. We've never
had a UA Derby winner win the Kentucky Derby. Oh
by the way, we've never had a horse break out
of the seventeen post and win the Kentucky Derby either.
(10:08):
So he's trying to break three separate trends here.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
So why do you think he can?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I don't think this is a very good field. This
is one of the weaker Kentucky Derbies we've seen in
a long time, and there are probably four or five
horses that are not in this race because of injury
or because they didn't qualify. Who are would be the
second or third choice in the race if they got in.
And because of that, when you have an unknown like Dermosotagte,
I'm more drawn to that horse. I know a lot
(10:36):
of these horses, and I'm not impressed with what they
can offer. Dermosota Goatte went gate to wire and the
UA Derby just misbreaking the track record. There should be
forwardly placed in this race, which again gives him an
advantage in that seventeen post. Well, it's not wonderful for him.
He should be sitting in fifth or sixth around that
first turn because of that tactical speed, So I think
he can overcome that. The other thing that we've seen
(10:57):
consistently across the globe is these Japanese horses absolutely showing
up and showing out. At some point there will be
a Japanese horse that wins the Kentucky Derby. It's now
a when, not an if, and this could easily be
that year. When you have a lot of talented horses
who are coming from off the pace and a Japanese
horse that's going to be more forwardly placed. That is
a very good horse. A lot of question marks, but
(11:19):
at the same time, if we can get the right price,
I think Dermosolta Goata is awfully interesting.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
I think it's fascinating.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
You're saying all these things that have historically never happened,
yet you got ten to one odds. So what are
the odds makers seeing here? And maybe they're seeing the
opportunity for a lot of this history to be made
if I will that you've kind of presented to us,
But it feels like they think it's a little bit
more feasible than maybe they're letting on.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Well, there's two things that you have to remember with
the morning line odds. So the morning line odds aren't
necessarily someone's opinion on what they believe will happen in
the race. It's how they believe the race will be bet.
So they're trying to essentially guess what the off odds
are for the race to give the public a better
idea of what to expect from a payout. Since this
is a paramutol versus just betting against the sports book.
(12:03):
You don't lock in the odds. When you place your
wager on the Kentucky Derby, you get whatever the gates
open at. So the morning. Lines maker's goal is to
actually have the horses go off at the same price,
so they're trying to predict what the public will do
when they get to the window and they decide to bet.
I mentioned that that Japan swing. Japan has been on fire,
and because of that, you've seen a lot of these
(12:23):
horses get bet in international races when they ship into
when they ship to Europe, when they ship to the
Middle East, even when they came for the Breeders Cup,
a lot of the Japanese horses got bet and they've
been successful the last two years at the Breeders Cup
as well. That is going to create just some general
Japanese horse money. I'm both germosoltag Goatte and continue Are.
(12:44):
I think ten to one is probably a little bit short.
I'm hoping we get twelve to fifteen to one on
race day, but I understand why the line maker made
that ten to one line.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
One other thing, Mike that you mentioned that I think
is bears fruit, which is you said that it's not
a great field. If it's not a great field, does
that make Forte even more peeling from a betting standpoint,
even though it's the favorite.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
Forte hasn't done anything wrong, and that's that's why he
is the favorite here.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
He's gotten a very good trip in almost every single race.
The one exception there the Florida Derby, where he showed
the heart of a champion. I mean, Forte was two
lengths back with a sixteenth a mile to go and
was able to make up that ground and roll right by.
He has no distance concerns. There just aren't any real
question marks with Forte. I'd I'd be very surprised if
he doesn't hit the board as long as he doesn't
(13:28):
get stopped at some point.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
All right, but drop these Oh god, oh I'm sorry,
I thought you were done.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Go ahead. But he's also not a rock star. He's
not a justify, right, He's not an Americans go out
there when the next two races after is what you're
saying exactly, And there's enough things that can go wrong
from a trip perspective that makes you willing to take
a shot against him when he has not shown an
improvement at three that you were hoping to see after
being the two year old champion.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
All right, so drop the sam obam on me.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Tell me how you are going to be betting this
in terms of spreading out the units, when you're looking
in terms of long shots, in terms of the favorites,
in terms of trifecta, like, whatever you have in your
mind that you think is your approach to betting the
Derby this weekend.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Well, my favorite bet probably all year is the one
dollar SuperFect in the Kentucky Derby. A lot of tracks
off for a ten cent superfecta, and so you really
water down the value of long shots, and a lot
of people are able to spread out more. And so
for ten cents you can play a lot of horses
on that ticket. For a dollar, you really got to
shorten up your opinion. And so I like to play
(14:27):
a couple dollars superfectas when I play the Derby, I'll
put a couple different horses on top. For me, I'm
probably gonna have Mage on top of one at fifteen
to one, and I would have Angel Vampire on top
of the other at eight to one, and then I
would put the other four horses underneath. So I would put,
you know, the eight Mage with the six Kings Barn
the well, let me pull this up here for you.
(14:49):
The six Kings Barn thirteen, the fourteen Angel of Empire,
the fifteen forte and the seventeen Dermosotagatte underneath, and then
I'd flip that around. I put the fourteen Angel of
Empire on top with the six Kings Barn eight Maje,
the fifteen forty and the seventeen dermosotagat De. That would
cost you twenty four dollars for each of those if
you play it for one dollar.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Incredible stuff here, Mike so much everybody.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
Make sure you follow him on Twitter at SAMO bomb
eighteen and check out the YouTube channel. Tell everybody what
you got going on there too, because I know you
got live stuff happening. You've got wall to wall coverage here,
so if people are really into the derby, you're the
place to go. So I want to hear about it.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Yeah, it's gonna be a busy week for us. Make
sure you check out YouTube Best backslash Racing Dudes. We've
got capsules for all of the twenty horses that are
in the Kentucky Derby, so you can go learn more
about each of those horses. We have a live reporter
who has been breaking down some of the workouts there.
We have a live Derby Draw show that we just
wrapped up, so you can check out that replay if
you'd like to as well. We're gonna be live at
ninety in Pacific noon Eastern Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
(15:47):
morning to get any type of the Derby updates, so
any of the news that breaks, we'll be covering that,
and then on Friday and Saturday we'll be live during
the races. You can come join us and listen to
us handicap and give out our picks and hopefully get
a couple winners home from both the Kentucky Oaks and
the Kentucky Derby Cards.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Well, I don't know about.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Everybody listening, but I certainly feel a lot more confident
betting it now that I've talked to you, So thank
goodness you're here and gave us the time.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
We appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Believe me, and go follow them on Twitter again sam
Obam eighteen for all the latest when it comes to
horse racing and all the racing in general.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Don't forget.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Also download the betmgm app or just go to betmgm
dot com sign up with that promo code Juice when
you do, and also hit up bettingpros dot com slash
upgrade to go premium over at Betting Pros and download
the apps. You can stay on top of all the
latest that's going on in all the betting world in
terms of line movement, in terms of news, all that
is there for you at Betting Pros.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Again, download the app. It's free.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
It's good for you, especially if you're starting to take
this stuff real seriously, and I know that you do.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Because you're watching the show.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
When you're listening to the show, that'll do it for us,
But the story of the game goes on for Mike.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
Welcome in everybody at betting Pros's time to place your bets.
It's me Joey Paid Joe Pizapia, and today we're going
to take a look at the upcoming race. The one
hundred and forty ninth Kentucky Derby is upon us this
weekend and to help us break it down from the
Magic Mike Show and Dudes who Bet Daily is the one,
the only Mike Samich. You could follow him on the
Twitter machine at Samobam eighteen. Of course check out all
(00:24):
of his great work at racing dudes. And I'm so
happy he's here because I know very little about horse racing.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
There you go. I'm just keeping it real here on
the show. I always do. But I will say this.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
The first sports bet I ever made it a Vegas casino,
was on the Kentucky Derby. It was unjustified and I
want it. It was a magical day. It was fantastic.
I was there for a wedding mic it was an
Elvis wedding. We had the wedding, we went out there,
we hung out, we went to the sportsbook for a
little while. After I said, let's put some money on
the Kentucky Derby. When you know it, it ended up
returning some cash. So I want you to pick much
(00:56):
better winners than I would pick on this. So, Mike,
I appreciate you being on the show. And how much
dancing do you do on the Magic Mic Show?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
That's what I want to know.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Well, you know you got to check out the show
to watch. We we got the YouTube stream now every
week and it gets pretty crazy over there. You never
know what's gonna happen. It's it's a class to be here. Joe,
thank you very much for having me justify phenomenal horse
there well, first first triple crown winner in years. It
was great to see him get the job done. It's
a beauty of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby. This
is the one race that everyone bets every year and
(01:24):
it's going to be really interesting after having Rich Strike
win it last year. Is the fastest opening half mile
in the Kentucky Derby history. A historic payout from a
win perspective, I would expect you're not going to have
any monster prices, but that means there's gonna be a
ton of value in those middle prices because of how
many people are going to play these long shots. This
year because of the result last year.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
All right, well they're going to break down all the
horses and obviously we're gonna break down the turf. We're
gonna break down also talking about you know where they're
going to be you know posted, because that's very important
too in terms of positions. So before we get to
all that, just quick reminder. Also bet mgm is offering
one thousand dollars new users in their first free bet.
Sign up to a bet mgm and use that promo
code Juice, and you get paid back up to one
(02:04):
thousand dollars in free bonuses even if you don't win.
So sign up for bet mgm today and use that
promo code Juice when you do, and don't forget to
subscribe to betting Pros YouTube channel. Is when you do
and you click that little bell for notifications and you
drop a comment below tell me who you think is
going to win the derby, you can win an opportunity
to get a free premium upgrade to Betting Pros Premium.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
So if you're looking for access to exclusive.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Picks, top rate of player props, whatever it might be,
Betting Pros Premium has you covered. You get sign up
today without even waiting for the contest. Bettingpros dot com
slash upgrade. Start betting smarter, not harder. That's a good
thing to do, So let's talk about it first. Obviously
we have the favorite is forte, so we know that
we're gonna get to your long shots in the second.
Walk me through, Mike, what's going on here in terms
(02:44):
of the position, how important it is for some of
these horses, and who runs well on this track.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yeah, eight of the last ten winners have been forwardly
placed in the Kentucky Derby, so right out of the gate,
since we switched over to the points system, you've seen
horses that are more forwardly placed win. It's one of
the biggest knocks against sitting at three to one, he's
not a horse that is generally forwardly placed. So he's
gonna sit mid to backpack and try and make one
big run around the far turn and see if he's
able to get the job done. The fifteen post where
(03:11):
he drew is not a problem for him. I mean,
he did not want to be all the way on
the inside because that can get you in a lot
of traffic trouble in there. But drawing that fifteen post
would set him up to get his one run in.
The question is how wide is he haveing to go
and what type of trip is Irad or t Is
gonna be able to get on him. Now he's got
arguably the best jockey in the world, so that's a
huge positive for Forte here. He is won twice at Keenland,
(03:33):
so he likes these Kentucky tracks. The question is gonna
be where is he gonna be and is he gonna
be close enough to be able to get the job
done down the lane?
Speaker 1 (03:41):
And he have Forte at one ninety with the points
he a practical move at one sixty, Angel Vampire one
fifty four, and then a few other horses behind that.
So Forte obviously the heavy favorite three to one. Here
we're looking at Tapa Trice at five to one. Can
you make a case for any of the other favorites
who are in let's say that ten under range here
(04:02):
that you think might have a shot or is it
really Fourte's race to lose in that sense?
Speaker 3 (04:07):
The other horse that's under ten to one, I think
that you got to take a look at is Angel
of Empire. Angel of Empire is a Bradcox trainee Flavian
Pratt picked this horse over Kings Barnes, so we're going
to talk about a little later as well, the six
horse for Todd Pletcher. This horse won in two different ways,
which I love to see. So it was able to
win down in Louisiana in a pace collapse, so they
had a really fast pace and you saw Angel of
(04:28):
Empire be able to close into that and get the
job done. Then in the Arkansas Derby, you had every
horse pretty much get a good trip and a reasonable pace,
so there was no one that could really complain about
about the run they got. And Angel Vampire actually smoked
that field one by four and a half lengths, never
looked like a loser, saved ground and then tilted off
the rail and just had this big kick coming from home.
The biggest issue with Angel of Empire again, much like Forte,
(04:50):
gonna want to come from off the pace and so
the question is how is that going to set up?
So those would be the two sub ten to one
horses I'm interested in. When you look at horses like
tap at Trice who drew the five post here maybe
the most talented horse in this race long term, in
a world of trouble in this specific spot. He's run
five times. He has never broken well. All five of
those races broken poorly. When you're drawn in that inside
(05:12):
part of this race and you break out of that
five gate and you don't break well, you're going to
have fifteen horses to your outside just crushing down towards
the rail because they're all going to be trying to
get position, and they're all faster than him. You could
easily see him sitting in twentieth going under the finish
line for the first time. And that is a recipe
for disaster. When you look at practical move ten to one,
the horse is coming out of California, has looked much
(05:34):
better as a three year old than a two year old.
But his sire is practical joke, so his dad's practical joke,
a horse that does not want two turns at all.
So there's a distance concern here with practical move. And
when you look at the last two races, was able
to win go in two turns a mile sixteenth and
then a mile and an eighth. We're going to go
a mile and a quarter. So for long longer here
today than his last race. He was starting to breathe
(05:54):
a little heavily going down that lane there, and he
tripped out, which means in horse racing terms, he got
to save ground on both turns. He had no issues
from a traffic perspective. He was able to sit close
to the pace and then just make one move. That's
the easiest way to get a distance that you struggle getting.
So he got the perfect setup, perfect trip in both
of those races, and specifically in the sanity of the derby,
(06:16):
he barely held on to Mandarin Hero, who didn't qualify
for the race, and probably would be thirty to one
forty to one if he does make it into the
field and you're sitting there staring at ten to one
on practical move, I have a lot of concerns about
him being able to get the actual distance.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
There was some good phase there, including tap a trice
a five to one.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
I'm sure it's gonna be a popular bet, but you
make a really good case there on the fade on
that horse. Everybody loves long shots, and everybody loves some
of these ones that are a little bit fuller out
in terms of odds, because it's fun to bet. Angel
Vampire is at eight to one so that is definitely
more of a long shot. Is there somebody that's even
further down the list where you think has a real
shot to win this Derby race.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
I'm going to go to the eight horse mage here,
and this was one where I picked this horse to
run second to four in the Florida Derby. Ended up
running second there. But we talked about the trip with
practical move. Mage has gotten an awful trip in his
last two races, so did not break well in either
of those races, and that is really the biggest concern
with Mage. Mage needs to break well on Saturday to
(07:15):
be a factor. But if he breaks well and is
sitting in that first five horses and he has the
early speed to do that, if he breaks he is
a very very live long shot at fifteen to one.
If you go back in the watches Florida Derby, he
breaks poorly, he gets bumped early, he's forced four wide
and is in dead last. And this is the horse
who wants to be upfront, is in dead last. He
(07:35):
makes a massive move, actually hits the lead and just
gets run down by fourte there in the last sixteenth
of a mile. To me, when you have fourt a
three to one, and this horse ran second to him
last time with a terrible trip, and you're sitting there
staring at fifteen to one. There's a lot of value
there if Mage can just break out of the gate.
Now it's a big if, but if he does, I
would have him somewhere in that five to seven to
(07:57):
one range, not fifteen to one. So I do think
there's quite a bit of value on me, all right.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Kings Barnes is another one that you've got kind of
locked and loaded here.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Why kings Barnes is interesting because it's it's really a
wild card in a lot of ways. Broke his maiden
n ack Gulfstream Park and it was a race that
didn't really produce any other great horses, so you don't
know how good it is. He went down to Tampa
and he won that race really easily, but the horse
that ran second ran second to last in the Tampa
Bay Derby, so not a ton behind him there either.
(08:26):
Then he goes to Louisiana and wins Louisiana Derby, which
is a major prep for this Kentucky Derby race. But
he is able to do it. In these He sets
the pace and wins with the slowest six furlongs that
we have seen in any major Kentucky Derby prep since
the points era started, so really an easy trip for Kingsbarnes.
So we're not sure how good he is, but he's
(08:47):
got tactical speed in a race that does not feature
a lot of tactical speed. He should be sitting close
to the pace, and we talked about this earlier. Eight
of the first last ten Derby winners have all been
sitting close to the pace. He checks all of those
boxes and that sixth post position is a great draw
for him. You're going to see speed from the two
horse verifying from the four horse confidence game. He's gonna
be able to sit right behind those horses and get
(09:09):
that dream trip here. We don't know if he's good enough,
and he's probably the third most talented pletcher in this race.
On top of that, it took him forever. He just
got a jockey over the weekend, so it took that
long for someone to actually pick up the mount here,
which was shocking, and Flavian Pratt picked Angel Vampire over
kings Barnes. But all that being said, kings Barnes probably
(09:30):
going to be one of the best horses that's sitting
in that first flight, So twelve to one is a
nice price on him.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I know there's another horse you have your eye on
to Dermasotagake, which you know is another one where you're
looking at the board and you're looking at returns ten
to one.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
That's a pretty good number there.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
Why are you excited about this one that's running out
of the seventeenth position.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Well, this is this is an interesting horse because we
have the least amount of information on Dermosotagate. This is
the wild card in the field. If you will, won
the UA Derby and this horse is from Japan. Neither.
We never had a Derby winner from Japan. We've never
had a UA Derby winner win the Kentucky Derby. Oh
by the way, we've never had a horse break out
of the seventeen post and win the Kentucky Derby either.
(10:08):
So he's trying to break three separate trends here.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
So why do you think he can?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I don't think this is a very good field. This
is one of the weaker Kentucky Derbies we've seen in
a long time, and there are probably four or five
horses that are not in this race because of injury
or because they didn't qualify. Who are would be the
second or third choice in the race if they got in.
And because of that, when you have an unknown like Dermosotagte,
I'm more drawn to that horse. I know a lot
(10:36):
of these horses, and I'm not impressed with what they
can offer. Dermosota Goatte went gate to wire and the
UA Derby just misbreaking the track record. There should be
forwardly placed in this race, which again gives him an
advantage in that seventeen post. Well, it's not wonderful for him.
He should be sitting in fifth or sixth around that
first turn because of that tactical speed, So I think
he can overcome that. The other thing that we've seen
(10:57):
consistently across the globe is these Japanese horses absolutely showing
up and showing out. At some point there will be
a Japanese horse that wins the Kentucky Derby. It's now
a when, not an if, and this could easily be
that year. When you have a lot of talented horses
who are coming from off the pace and a Japanese
horse that's going to be more forwardly placed. That is
a very good horse. A lot of question marks, but
(11:19):
at the same time, if we can get the right price,
I think Dermosolta Goata is awfully interesting.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
I think it's fascinating.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
You're saying all these things that have historically never happened,
yet you got ten to one odds. So what are
the odds makers seeing here? And maybe they're seeing the
opportunity for a lot of this history to be made
if I will that you've kind of presented to us,
But it feels like they think it's a little bit
more feasible than maybe they're letting on.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Well, there's two things that you have to remember with
the morning line odds. So the morning line odds aren't
necessarily someone's opinion on what they believe will happen in
the race. It's how they believe the race will be bet.
So they're trying to essentially guess what the off odds
are for the race to give the public a better
idea of what to expect from a payout. Since this
is a paramutol versus just betting against the sports book.
(12:03):
You don't lock in the odds. When you place your
wager on the Kentucky Derby, you get whatever the gates
open at. So the morning. Lines maker's goal is to
actually have the horses go off at the same price,
so they're trying to predict what the public will do
when they get to the window and they decide to bet.
I mentioned that that Japan swing. Japan has been on fire,
and because of that, you've seen a lot of these
(12:23):
horses get bet in international races when they ship into
when they ship to Europe, when they ship to the
Middle East, even when they came for the Breeders Cup,
a lot of the Japanese horses got bet and they've
been successful the last two years at the Breeders Cup
as well. That is going to create just some general
Japanese horse money. I'm both germosoltag Goatte and continue Are.
(12:44):
I think ten to one is probably a little bit short.
I'm hoping we get twelve to fifteen to one on
race day, but I understand why the line maker made
that ten to one line.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
One other thing, Mike that you mentioned that I think
is bears fruit, which is you said that it's not
a great field. If it's not a great field, does
that make Forte even more peeling from a betting standpoint,
even though it's the favorite.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
Forte hasn't done anything wrong, and that's that's why he
is the favorite here.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
He's gotten a very good trip in almost every single race.
The one exception there the Florida Derby, where he showed
the heart of a champion. I mean, Forte was two
lengths back with a sixteenth a mile to go and
was able to make up that ground and roll right by.
He has no distance concerns. There just aren't any real
question marks with Forte. I'd I'd be very surprised if
he doesn't hit the board as long as he doesn't
(13:28):
get stopped at some point.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
All right, but drop these Oh god, oh I'm sorry,
I thought you were done.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Go ahead. But he's also not a rock star. He's
not a justify, right, He's not an Americans go out
there when the next two races after is what you're
saying exactly, And there's enough things that can go wrong
from a trip perspective that makes you willing to take
a shot against him when he has not shown an
improvement at three that you were hoping to see after
being the two year old champion.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
All right, so drop the sam obam on me.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Tell me how you are going to be betting this
in terms of spreading out the units, when you're looking
in terms of long shots, in terms of the favorites,
in terms of trifecta, like, whatever you have in your
mind that you think is your approach to betting the
Derby this weekend.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Well, my favorite bet probably all year is the one
dollar SuperFect in the Kentucky Derby. A lot of tracks
off for a ten cent superfecta, and so you really
water down the value of long shots, and a lot
of people are able to spread out more. And so
for ten cents you can play a lot of horses
on that ticket. For a dollar, you really got to
shorten up your opinion. And so I like to play
(14:27):
a couple dollars superfectas when I play the Derby, I'll
put a couple different horses on top. For me, I'm
probably gonna have Mage on top of one at fifteen
to one, and I would have Angel Vampire on top
of the other at eight to one, and then I
would put the other four horses underneath. So I would put,
you know, the eight Mage with the six Kings Barn
the well, let me pull this up here for you.
(14:49):
The six Kings Barn thirteen, the fourteen Angel of Empire,
the fifteen forte and the seventeen Dermosotagatte underneath, and then
I'd flip that around. I put the fourteen Angel of
Empire on top with the six Kings Barn eight Maje,
the fifteen forty and the seventeen dermosotagat De. That would
cost you twenty four dollars for each of those if
you play it for one dollar.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Incredible stuff here, Mike so much everybody.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
Make sure you follow him on Twitter at SAMO bomb
eighteen and check out the YouTube channel. Tell everybody what
you got going on there too, because I know you
got live stuff happening. You've got wall to wall coverage here,
so if people are really into the derby, you're the
place to go. So I want to hear about it.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Yeah, it's gonna be a busy week for us. Make
sure you check out YouTube Best backslash Racing Dudes. We've
got capsules for all of the twenty horses that are
in the Kentucky Derby, so you can go learn more
about each of those horses. We have a live reporter
who has been breaking down some of the workouts there.
We have a live Derby Draw show that we just
wrapped up, so you can check out that replay if
you'd like to as well. We're gonna be live at
ninety in Pacific noon Eastern Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
(15:47):
morning to get any type of the Derby updates, so
any of the news that breaks, we'll be covering that,
and then on Friday and Saturday we'll be live during
the races. You can come join us and listen to
us handicap and give out our picks and hopefully get
a couple winners home from both the Kentucky Oaks and
the Kentucky Derby Cards.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Well, I don't know about.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Everybody listening, but I certainly feel a lot more confident
betting it now that I've talked to you, So thank
goodness you're here and gave us the time.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
We appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Believe me, and go follow them on Twitter again sam
Obam eighteen for all the latest when it comes to
horse racing and all the racing in general.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Don't forget.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Also download the betmgm app or just go to betmgm
dot com sign up with that promo code Juice when
you do, and also hit up bettingpros dot com slash
upgrade to go premium over at Betting Pros and download
the apps. You can stay on top of all the
latest that's going on in all the betting world in
terms of line movement, in terms of news, all that
is there for you at Betting Pros.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Again, download the app. It's free.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
It's good for you, especially if you're starting to take
this stuff real seriously, and I know that you do.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Because you're watching the show.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
When you're listening to the show, that'll do it for us,
But the story of the game goes on for Mike.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
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