Join Seth Woolcock, Matt Perrault, and special guest Luke Monaldo as they break down the post positions, favorites, odds, and values for the Preakness Stakes taking place this weekend!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Post Positions - 0:01:35
BettingPros App - 0:04:36
Favorites, Odds, and Value - 0:05:05
Bet365 - 0:13:18
Long Shots and Big Payout Potential - 0:14:03
Outro - 0:19:23
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's
time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five
Preakness Stakes. That's right, we're back betting ponies, this time
heading to Baltimore. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and we're
coming off a fantastic Kentucky Derby where our guest Mike
Samach helped some very happy listeners cash in both on
(00:21):
the Sovereignty Outright and the legendary Superfecta. So shout to
everyone who tailed. Shout to Mike for some really great
plays as well. Joining me today is an equally exciting cast,
including the host of the Betting Pros Daily Juice podcast,
Matt Parral. Matt, great to see you today, man. How
are you as we gear up for another leg of
the Triple Crown.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
You know, I'm good.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
You know, Sovereignty's win over Journalism was pretty exciting. It
was kind of predicted right after the race that this,
you know, second leg might not get the Triple Crown
winner potential. So it's a little bit of a bummer
on the Preakness, but it's a good money making opportunity
for sure.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Good to be here, Thanks for having.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Me also joining us as someone else who is correct
coming off a really big Kentucky Derby win himself. He
shouted it right here on the Bank Pros podcast. It's
Luke Minaldo. Luke, how are you doing as we approach
yet another exciting weekend of horse racing.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
I'm doing great myself, a little bummed that there will
be no triple Crown winner this year, but other than that,
it's always great to.
Speaker 5 (01:19):
Have the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Absolutely Before we jump into the program, just wanted to
first shout out everyone who's watching and listening. If you're
joining us here on the Bank Pros YouTube channel, do
us a quick favor, give this favorite a thumbs up
if you enjoy this type content. Also subscribe if you're
new so you don't miss a thing. And let's go ahead, gentlemen,
let's dive in, starting with post predictions and or excuse me,
post positions and what they mean.
Speaker 5 (01:42):
Luke, can you.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Please explain a little bit about how certain gates historically
help or hurt when it comes to the Preakness versus
the Derby, and how it might impact your betting card
this weekend?
Speaker 5 (01:50):
My friend, Well, it's.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Not quite as you know. Spread out in terms of
the scattered chart, I should say because stead of a
twenty horse field, you have less than half. Historically, I
guess since nineteen oh nine, the six hole has produced
the most winners with seventeen, including last year's when it
was seized the gray. But you have a lot of
(02:12):
thirteen for goal oriented he's at the one hole. Did
you have thirteen at the one hole, fourteen at the
four hole? Everything like that? And even since two thousand,
six hole has had four winners, but everyone else has
had two or three, and at least one until through
one through nine since two thousand. So it's just it's
anyone's game in.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Terms of the gate, Matt, anything in addition to added
to that. And with that being said, are there any
big name ponies that you're either fading in key slots.
Speaker 5 (02:41):
Or maybe backing this weekend?
Speaker 6 (02:43):
No?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Not in terms of fading.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
I mean, I think when you look at a horse
like Journalism in the way that he performed in the derby,
I think obviously he's the odds on favorite for good reason.
And so I think when you're talking about horses that
have gone, we've seen them run already against many in
this field and going into the Preakness now with obviously
sovereignty not being there, you have to really like a
(03:05):
bigger name horse to come in here and get the win.
But the problem is the Derby is so great because
of the betting. The depth of the betting pool and
the para mutual gives you so many opportunities to make
money and really cash a long shot ticket. So if
you want the Bombers, the Derby's just the pool of
money is so different when it comes to the Preakness,
and then it's somewhat. I do tend to bet favorites
(03:28):
more and I'm more confident in betting favorites in the Preakness.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Because I'm not.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
One the field's half the size, but two, the prize
pool is different, so you aren't looking to come off
with that ticket and that super effecta that's going to
pay you, you know, twenty thirty forty to one. It's
better to come in with a Preakness and take the
horse you really think that's going to win and maybe
take winners to just place to just take a winner
and take the price there because it's probably going to
(03:53):
be decent price for you to.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
Get Luke anything that the post position draw is telling
you right now that you're they're staying away from or
that you are potentially backing because of that poll.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Well, Journalism at the two I don't love, just because
that's a hard trip, especially as a deep closer if
he gets kind of caught there between the rail and
the crowd. Being one in three sixteenth miles, this is
the shortest of the Triple Crown race, and that can
lead to issues with the deep closers. I think Journalism
(04:26):
has there's a lot of trips that can get him
a win, but if you want to find the money
in this race, it's gonna be with Journalism getting a
bad trip on the inside.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Okay, before we continue, be sure to download the free
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Speaker 5 (05:06):
Now what everyone's been waiting for. Let's go ahead and
move into the odds.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
The favorites as of midweek are Journalism once Again, who
after finishing second in the derby, is now going off
at eight to five odds, which in American odds or
sports betting odds, it's gonna be plus one sixty. The
Stables owned and Metallica inspired named Sandman comes in at
four to one odds after finishing seventh in the derby.
Clever Again is at five to one, and Goal Oriented
(05:30):
is also at five to one. Let's start by breaking
down overlays and underlays, Matt, in your eyes, do you
see any overlays offering values or underlays that you're potentially
avoiding this weekend?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Not really, I mean not yet.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
I think I kind of want to get a little
bit closer as we're taping here on a Wednesday, I
want to get kind of closer.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
I really want to see the weather.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
I mean, I think that that has such a key
component as to come well when it comes to value
and looking at the field and looking at the prices.
I think in terms of and again we don't know
what the weather's going to be like because it's obviously
on the East coast and it can change relatively quickly.
But if it's gonna be a wet track, if if
it's gonna rain, it will change the way I'm gonna
bet this whole if it bet this race. So as
(06:13):
of right now, there are some forecasts that say we
might have some rain in the forecast in Baltimore, and
if that happens, that will change. So as of right now, no,
but that could change based upon the weather as we
get closer to post time.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Okay, when it comes to the favorites here, Luke, of
course these odds are subject to change weather depending of course,
seeing where the money comes in as well. So are
any of these favorite favorites betable or potentially ones that
you're avoiding here.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
Luke, I guess journalism for the aforementioned reason of just
his post position. Okay, I guess another little thing to
put it in is in recent years, in the past
about fifteen or sixteen races, there's been five favorites of
one like on money online favorites, and six long shots
of one. So in recent years you have seen a
(07:02):
little more of the long shots come through horses like
cloud Computing and sees de Gray even was a mid
long shot in that regard, So maybe goal oriented. I
think if you want to termament talk in terms of
long shots, maybe not in his odds, but just in
terms of he's only race two races, he's won both
(07:24):
of them. I think he wants the distance and Baffort
has got eight of these things, and you don't win
it by throwing just any old horse out there. So
I think if Baffort thinks he's ready, and honestly, if
it speaking to the weather, if it's a wet track,
sometimes that inside that rail is the driest and the
best route. So if you get goal oriented out in
(07:46):
front and he's got the rail, you could see an
upset in terms of just his racing history right there,
his racing history, not racing history, but his own personal
racing history.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
Then what do you think about that?
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Matt? Do you have any favorite favorites that you will
be laying any coin down or is this just you know,
an all out Hey, I'm gonna hold it and wait
and see until the weekend.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
If I was betting today, I would bet Sandman, and
I think that that's I would bet Sandman to win,
to win it the Orchestral Derby winner. And I look,
I'm a little bit of a music nut, so you
could say I'm a little bit superstitious on this because
I thought the track on the his run of the
Derby wasn't all that great. So let's see what happens
here in kind of a bounce back spot. I think,
(08:27):
as Luke talked about, the rail is somewhat of a
questionable spot for journalism. So I may go four to one,
five to one on Sandman. On those odds, I think
goal goal oriented, six to one, seven to one. Let's
see where those prices wind up going. That's not a
horrible idea. I mean, if you want long shots and
go crazy, hard of honor.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Is a horse.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Maybe it's it's a you know, a horse that hasn't
run here, so maybe a horse that we don't know
much about. That kind of comes from the clouds and
it comes out if you want that long shot opportunity.
But from a favorite perspective right now, I would look
at Sandman and say, okay, let's see if you could
make up for the derby, because there was so much
hype around that.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Oh my goodness.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Yeah, and things and things did not go well at
the derby. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
This guy has like I think, probably more Instagram horses
or Instagram followers as horse does than betting pros does,
which we've got a pretty good following out there on
the Insta streets. But yes, Samman, certainly the New York
Yankees endorsement that does not hurt that at all, Luke.
In addition to the outright market, there are exotics that
could be in play here. So whether that's exactas trifectas
(09:30):
win play, show bets, are there any things that you're
looking at potentially adding to your card in these markets?
Speaker 4 (09:38):
I don't think there's so much stacked against this course
to win. But I like pay Billy, And the biggest
thing I like about pay Billy to hit the board
is that he's got five wins, and that's There are
limited stakes races in below. They're all at Laurel Park,
ten minutes from my house, by the way, So he's
(09:59):
a local here Kentucky bread. But he's raced his entire
career in Delaware and Maryland. But five wins as a
three year old is nothing to sneeze at. So he
has a chance to hit the board and at twenty
to one or whatever he's going to go off at.
That could really add value in a horse in a
race that is searching for it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Matt, you said that this might be the race that
you're just potentially taking outrights. Do you like any exotics
off the rip here or is this just another place
you're staying away from.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
I think for me, I tend to look towards the
value on race day when it comes to exotics. I
break down horses the way I break down fields is
I want to see who I think is going to
win the race, and then from there I'll kind of
play off of it and say, okay, Like I don't
normally make this bet, but the bet of the Derby
I made. I took the top three odds to go first, second,
(10:53):
or third, the top three odds shortest odds to win
the race in the Derby, and that was a minus
one thirty play. I don't normally make that, but but
I felt like the top three horses in the race,
it was journalism, it was sovereignty. And I forget the
third horse that they gave me as an option to
bet it, and I.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Lay juice with it.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Just because I thought those are the top three horses
that were gonna come in and Sovereignty wan so that
back cashed. So I don't normally do stuff like that,
but I feel like sometimes there can be a separator
as we get closer to post time where you start
to see the quote unquote sharp money come in, and
as that comes in, you're like, Okay, what am I
not seeing? Because I bet everything, So like I kind
of I'm a master of none when it comes to
(11:34):
gambling in.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
A lot of senses.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So like I do look to see where the late
money comes in and where the larger wagers come in,
because I may go, Okay, I'm gonna bet sand Man
to win this thing. But if I'm gonna play in exacta,
who's gonna come in second?
Speaker 2 (11:47):
You know if I'm gonna play.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
I love the options of horse raising gives you with
the boxes and the different levels that different bets you
can make for fifty cents and a dollar. So oftentimes
I go with somebody who I know who's a good
gambler who knows how to bet horses, and I'll tell them, Okay,
I like these three horses, how do I do it?
Speaker 2 (12:05):
And they'll give me the bet to make at the window.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Now that's awesome, man. I'm always very pleasantly surprised by
the array of a different markets that you're investing in
over there on the Daily Juice.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
Well, what's the weirdest sport You've ever bet on?
Speaker 3 (12:19):
The weirdest sport I've ever bet on. That's a great
question because I grew up in Boston, and betting on
NASCAR is always like a foreign conversation. But I I
worked in Virginia in Alabama, so I covered Talladega and
then I went to Omaha, and I went into Des Moines,
and I went to Kansas City. I went to Texas.
(12:41):
I'm in the Texas Motor Speedway. I've been to Kansas City.
I've been to Iowa Motor Speedway. I've been around the
country at different tracks. So I would say, like, the
one sport that I've never played myself that I've bet
on would be car racing, would be NASCAR.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
Okay, okay, good on that. Well, if you guys like Nascar.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
I put out an article on the Betting Pros website
every single weekend Good Bettingpros Dot, So make sure you
guys are firing up there, I'll have truck, Xfinity and
Cup Series odds for you. So yeah, definitely one of
those niche markets. So for sure, I don't think it's
you know, you look at all these stats of different
areas that are growing in sports betting, NASCAR is not one,
but we're trying to get it there. So we're gonna
(13:16):
keep doing the Lord's work over here at Betting Pros.
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If you live in Iowa, terms and conditions do apply.
All right, gentlemen, let's go ahead and get into some
long shots. Luke, do you have any sleeper picks that
you're riding with this weekend.
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I'm gonna stick with pay Billy. You know, he's a
local favorite and it's all it's he won. He got
in by winning the Fredriko Tessio Stakes. It's been a
long time, if ever they produced a winner. But I
just like I said, five wins as a three year old.
That's not by nothing, not for nothing. So pay Billy
uh if he if he wins, is gonna pay Billy, John, Joey,
(14:34):
everybody big time.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
What do you think, Matt, do you have any long
shots that you're potentially looking at? I think you already
shouted one out.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, Heart of Honor is is kind of what I'm
looking at. I like the fourth post position right in
the middle of the field coming in. We don't know
this horse, I mean bom and really it's making his
US debut at the Preakness, So we don't really know
a whole lot about how he'll run here in the
United States. So I tend to like horses that ab
other jockeys haven't seen run and don't know his running style.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
And if he is going to be a closer, let's
see what the pace is here.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
If it is a muddy track, if it is sloppy
and maybe a slower track, you might see somebody come
from the clouds like a heart of honor getting a
chance at fifteen, you know, sixteen to one, depending on
where he closes to come and get a big upset
in the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Okay, all right, well, Luke, I got one more question
for you to round it out. And I hope you
take this as a compliment, but you look like a
degenerate a lot like myself. So I want to ask you,
do you have a degenerate ticket for us, a yolo
ticket if you would maybe a big payout play something
that we're not gonna hold you to, maybe over in
that super effective market, that's maybe just worth a little
bit of a sprinkle here.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
Okay, So let's take the situation I talked about earlier.
Let's say journalism gets a horrible trip and gets trapped
on the inside. Okay, take take his eight to five
out of it. Let's do he got heart in any order?
Heart of Honor, Pay Billy, River Tims, who he's kind
of like Sovereignty, like I talked about the last time
we talked, Sovereignty had been around long, like too long
(16:06):
to be trending, and people kind of forgot about him. Sorry.
River Tams is much the same way. He posted a
one sixteen speed rate about buyer speed rating earlier this year,
and that's I believe the best, if not one of
the best in the field this year. So put him
(16:27):
in there, and then you can even add Sandman, and
so you can have River Tams and Sandman are kind
of the more meat and potatoes part of that the
most likely. And then you go ahead and throw Heart
of Honor and pay Billy and if that hits, especially
if pay Billy or Heart of Honor is a windsor
places oh man.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Okay, all right, well, Matt Luke, Yeah, can I can
I ask Luther a question on that, because I am
curus Luke.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
What's your what's your theory when.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
It comes to boxes and it comes to playing all
and the crazier bets, because my co host on my
other show has once put all he picked the winner
and then hit the all button and was able to
cash and one about nine thousand dollars doing it. Okay,
because if you get a dog, you get a crazy
(17:15):
from the clouds. And I forget whichever it was was
two years ago that won the derby, the long shot
horse that won the derby, that escaped in my brain
and I apologize, But how do you feel about those
types of box and one in those crazier inside school bets.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
They are danger They're a dangerous game because I got
into that for a while, especially during COVID when that
was really the only betting thing in town, and I
would box. I'd find horses that were like six horse races,
so I could like do a ten cent super effective
box them all. It's like a thirty six dollars ticket
(17:54):
and I hit big on one of them, and it's
just it's not a it's not a very good, smart
long term thing, but you can hit big with it.
But I do like boxing superfectas because I just I
hate that. Oh instead I did dollar twenty instead of
doing two forty, and the long shot hit, but I
(18:16):
didn't have that, So I like to do all. If
I'm doing a super effect, I like to box it
and have all. So I'm just rooting for the horse,
the four horses to finish, rather than like any particular order.
That's my that's where I can go, right.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
I like that too.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Yeah, And I think for the average person doesn't bet horses,
it's fun not picking the order, just picking the top
four horses that come in. And granted that ticket at
fifty cents can get expensive, it can be up to
fifty sixty bucks on it, but it's worth it if
you're gonna bet that race.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
I think if you do like multiple horses for.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
Sure, and they have the it's like a quinila, but
it's like an omni box. They have a lot in
like other countries international racing where it's like you have
you pick two horses and if they finish anywhere in
the top three, yeah pays. But it doesn't matter if
it's their first, inserted, second and third whatever, and those
can be fun. I used to do early mornings South
(19:08):
Africa that was really Djen djdays was betting South Africa
news racing because it was like, you know, first thing
in the morning eight o'clock the racist start. I love
it gets me into the day, into.
Speaker 5 (19:20):
The love it.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Love it well, gentlemen, thank you so much for the
analysis this weekend.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Good luck to you, Good luck to everyone out there.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
In their bets for the Preakness Stakes that is going
to do it for us today on the Betting Pros Podcast,
thanks so much for watching. Be sure to give this
fav a thumbs up if you enjoyed it. Also subscribe
if you're new so you don't miss a thing and
don't forget to download the Banking Pros app and sink
your sportsbooks today for Luke min Audo and Matt Praul,
I'm Seth with Wilcock.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
Take care of y'all.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 6 (19:50):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's
time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five
Preakness Stakes. That's right, we're back betting ponies, this time
heading to Baltimore. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and we're
coming off a fantastic Kentucky Derby where our guest Mike
Samach helped some very happy listeners cash in both on
(00:21):
the Sovereignty Outright and the legendary Superfecta. So shout to
everyone who tailed. Shout to Mike for some really great
plays as well. Joining me today is an equally exciting cast,
including the host of the Betting Pros Daily Juice podcast,
Matt Parral. Matt, great to see you today, man. How
are you as we gear up for another leg of
the Triple Crown.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
You know, I'm good.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
You know, Sovereignty's win over Journalism was pretty exciting. It
was kind of predicted right after the race that this,
you know, second leg might not get the Triple Crown
winner potential. So it's a little bit of a bummer
on the Preakness, but it's a good money making opportunity
for sure.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Good to be here, Thanks for having.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Me also joining us as someone else who is correct
coming off a really big Kentucky Derby win himself. He
shouted it right here on the Bank Pros podcast. It's
Luke Minaldo. Luke, how are you doing as we approach
yet another exciting weekend of horse racing.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
I'm doing great myself, a little bummed that there will
be no triple Crown winner this year, but other than that,
it's always great to.
Speaker 5 (01:19):
Have the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Absolutely Before we jump into the program, just wanted to
first shout out everyone who's watching and listening. If you're
joining us here on the Bank Pros YouTube channel, do
us a quick favor, give this favorite a thumbs up
if you enjoy this type content. Also subscribe if you're
new so you don't miss a thing. And let's go ahead, gentlemen,
let's dive in, starting with post predictions and or excuse me,
post positions and what they mean.
Speaker 5 (01:42):
Luke, can you.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Please explain a little bit about how certain gates historically
help or hurt when it comes to the Preakness versus
the Derby, and how it might impact your betting card
this weekend?
Speaker 5 (01:50):
My friend, Well, it's.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Not quite as you know. Spread out in terms of
the scattered chart, I should say because stead of a
twenty horse field, you have less than half. Historically, I
guess since nineteen oh nine, the six hole has produced
the most winners with seventeen, including last year's when it
was seized the gray. But you have a lot of
(02:12):
thirteen for goal oriented he's at the one hole. Did
you have thirteen at the one hole, fourteen at the
four hole? Everything like that? And even since two thousand,
six hole has had four winners, but everyone else has
had two or three, and at least one until through
one through nine since two thousand. So it's just it's
anyone's game in.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Terms of the gate, Matt, anything in addition to added
to that. And with that being said, are there any
big name ponies that you're either fading in key slots.
Speaker 5 (02:41):
Or maybe backing this weekend?
Speaker 6 (02:43):
No?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Not in terms of fading.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
I mean, I think when you look at a horse
like Journalism in the way that he performed in the derby,
I think obviously he's the odds on favorite for good reason.
And so I think when you're talking about horses that
have gone, we've seen them run already against many in
this field and going into the Preakness now with obviously
sovereignty not being there, you have to really like a
(03:05):
bigger name horse to come in here and get the win.
But the problem is the Derby is so great because
of the betting. The depth of the betting pool and
the para mutual gives you so many opportunities to make
money and really cash a long shot ticket. So if
you want the Bombers, the Derby's just the pool of
money is so different when it comes to the Preakness,
and then it's somewhat. I do tend to bet favorites
(03:28):
more and I'm more confident in betting favorites in the Preakness.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Because I'm not.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
One the field's half the size, but two, the prize
pool is different, so you aren't looking to come off
with that ticket and that super effecta that's going to
pay you, you know, twenty thirty forty to one. It's
better to come in with a Preakness and take the
horse you really think that's going to win and maybe
take winners to just place to just take a winner
and take the price there because it's probably going to
(03:53):
be decent price for you to.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
Get Luke anything that the post position draw is telling
you right now that you're they're staying away from or
that you are potentially backing because of that poll.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Well, Journalism at the two I don't love, just because
that's a hard trip, especially as a deep closer if
he gets kind of caught there between the rail and
the crowd. Being one in three sixteenth miles, this is
the shortest of the Triple Crown race, and that can
lead to issues with the deep closers. I think Journalism
(04:26):
has there's a lot of trips that can get him
a win, but if you want to find the money
in this race, it's gonna be with Journalism getting a
bad trip on the inside.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Okay, before we continue, be sure to download the free
Betting Pros app for iOS and Android. With sportsbook Sink,
you can automatically track your bets across all major sports
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(04:56):
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Speaker 5 (05:06):
Now what everyone's been waiting for. Let's go ahead and
move into the odds.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
The favorites as of midweek are Journalism once Again, who
after finishing second in the derby, is now going off
at eight to five odds, which in American odds or
sports betting odds, it's gonna be plus one sixty. The
Stables owned and Metallica inspired named Sandman comes in at
four to one odds after finishing seventh in the derby.
Clever Again is at five to one, and Goal Oriented
(05:30):
is also at five to one. Let's start by breaking
down overlays and underlays, Matt, in your eyes, do you
see any overlays offering values or underlays that you're potentially
avoiding this weekend?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Not really, I mean not yet.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
I think I kind of want to get a little
bit closer as we're taping here on a Wednesday, I
want to get kind of closer.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
I really want to see the weather.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
I mean, I think that that has such a key
component as to come well when it comes to value
and looking at the field and looking at the prices.
I think in terms of and again we don't know
what the weather's going to be like because it's obviously
on the East coast and it can change relatively quickly.
But if it's gonna be a wet track, if if
it's gonna rain, it will change the way I'm gonna
bet this whole if it bet this race. So as
(06:13):
of right now, there are some forecasts that say we
might have some rain in the forecast in Baltimore, and
if that happens, that will change. So as of right now, no,
but that could change based upon the weather as we
get closer to post time.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Okay, when it comes to the favorites here, Luke, of
course these odds are subject to change weather depending of course,
seeing where the money comes in as well. So are
any of these favorite favorites betable or potentially ones that
you're avoiding here.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
Luke, I guess journalism for the aforementioned reason of just
his post position. Okay, I guess another little thing to
put it in is in recent years, in the past
about fifteen or sixteen races, there's been five favorites of
one like on money online favorites, and six long shots
of one. So in recent years you have seen a
(07:02):
little more of the long shots come through horses like
cloud Computing and sees de Gray even was a mid
long shot in that regard, So maybe goal oriented. I
think if you want to termament talk in terms of
long shots, maybe not in his odds, but just in
terms of he's only race two races, he's won both
(07:24):
of them. I think he wants the distance and Baffort
has got eight of these things, and you don't win
it by throwing just any old horse out there. So
I think if Baffort thinks he's ready, and honestly, if
it speaking to the weather, if it's a wet track,
sometimes that inside that rail is the driest and the
best route. So if you get goal oriented out in
(07:46):
front and he's got the rail, you could see an
upset in terms of just his racing history right there,
his racing history, not racing history, but his own personal
racing history.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
Then what do you think about that?
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Matt? Do you have any favorite favorites that you will
be laying any coin down or is this just you know,
an all out Hey, I'm gonna hold it and wait
and see until the weekend.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
If I was betting today, I would bet Sandman, and
I think that that's I would bet Sandman to win,
to win it the Orchestral Derby winner. And I look,
I'm a little bit of a music nut, so you
could say I'm a little bit superstitious on this because
I thought the track on the his run of the
Derby wasn't all that great. So let's see what happens
here in kind of a bounce back spot. I think,
(08:27):
as Luke talked about, the rail is somewhat of a
questionable spot for journalism. So I may go four to one,
five to one on Sandman. On those odds, I think
goal goal oriented, six to one, seven to one. Let's
see where those prices wind up going. That's not a
horrible idea. I mean, if you want long shots and
go crazy, hard of honor.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Is a horse.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Maybe it's it's a you know, a horse that hasn't
run here, so maybe a horse that we don't know
much about. That kind of comes from the clouds and
it comes out if you want that long shot opportunity.
But from a favorite perspective right now, I would look
at Sandman and say, okay, let's see if you could
make up for the derby, because there was so much
hype around that.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Oh my goodness.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Yeah, and things and things did not go well at
the derby. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
This guy has like I think, probably more Instagram horses
or Instagram followers as horse does than betting pros does,
which we've got a pretty good following out there on
the Insta streets. But yes, Samman, certainly the New York
Yankees endorsement that does not hurt that at all, Luke.
In addition to the outright market, there are exotics that
could be in play here. So whether that's exactas trifectas
(09:30):
win play, show bets, are there any things that you're
looking at potentially adding to your card in these markets?
Speaker 4 (09:38):
I don't think there's so much stacked against this course
to win. But I like pay Billy, And the biggest
thing I like about pay Billy to hit the board
is that he's got five wins, and that's There are
limited stakes races in below. They're all at Laurel Park,
ten minutes from my house, by the way, So he's
(09:59):
a local here Kentucky bread. But he's raced his entire
career in Delaware and Maryland. But five wins as a
three year old is nothing to sneeze at. So he
has a chance to hit the board and at twenty
to one or whatever he's going to go off at.
That could really add value in a horse in a
race that is searching for it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Matt, you said that this might be the race that
you're just potentially taking outrights. Do you like any exotics
off the rip here or is this just another place
you're staying away from.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
I think for me, I tend to look towards the
value on race day when it comes to exotics. I
break down horses the way I break down fields is
I want to see who I think is going to
win the race, and then from there I'll kind of
play off of it and say, okay, Like I don't
normally make this bet, but the bet of the Derby
I made. I took the top three odds to go first, second,
(10:53):
or third, the top three odds shortest odds to win
the race in the Derby, and that was a minus
one thirty play. I don't normally make that, but but
I felt like the top three horses in the race,
it was journalism, it was sovereignty. And I forget the
third horse that they gave me as an option to
bet it, and I.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Lay juice with it.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Just because I thought those are the top three horses
that were gonna come in and Sovereignty wan so that
back cashed. So I don't normally do stuff like that,
but I feel like sometimes there can be a separator
as we get closer to post time where you start
to see the quote unquote sharp money come in, and
as that comes in, you're like, Okay, what am I
not seeing? Because I bet everything, So like I kind
of I'm a master of none when it comes to
(11:34):
gambling in.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
A lot of senses.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So like I do look to see where the late
money comes in and where the larger wagers come in,
because I may go, Okay, I'm gonna bet sand Man
to win this thing. But if I'm gonna play in exacta,
who's gonna come in second?
Speaker 2 (11:47):
You know if I'm gonna play.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
I love the options of horse raising gives you with
the boxes and the different levels that different bets you
can make for fifty cents and a dollar. So oftentimes
I go with somebody who I know who's a good
gambler who knows how to bet horses, and I'll tell them, Okay,
I like these three horses, how do I do it?
Speaker 2 (12:05):
And they'll give me the bet to make at the window.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Now that's awesome, man. I'm always very pleasantly surprised by
the array of a different markets that you're investing in
over there on the Daily Juice.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
Well, what's the weirdest sport You've ever bet on?
Speaker 3 (12:19):
The weirdest sport I've ever bet on. That's a great
question because I grew up in Boston, and betting on
NASCAR is always like a foreign conversation. But I I
worked in Virginia in Alabama, so I covered Talladega and
then I went to Omaha, and I went into Des Moines,
and I went to Kansas City. I went to Texas.
(12:41):
I'm in the Texas Motor Speedway. I've been to Kansas City.
I've been to Iowa Motor Speedway. I've been around the
country at different tracks. So I would say, like, the
one sport that I've never played myself that I've bet
on would be car racing, would be NASCAR.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
Okay, okay, good on that. Well, if you guys like Nascar.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
I put out an article on the Betting Pros website
every single weekend Good Bettingpros Dot, So make sure you
guys are firing up there, I'll have truck, Xfinity and
Cup Series odds for you. So yeah, definitely one of
those niche markets. So for sure, I don't think it's
you know, you look at all these stats of different
areas that are growing in sports betting, NASCAR is not one,
but we're trying to get it there. So we're gonna
(13:16):
keep doing the Lord's work over here at Betting Pros.
And before we get to our long shots, I wanted
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(14:00):
If you live in Iowa, terms and conditions do apply.
All right, gentlemen, let's go ahead and get into some
long shots. Luke, do you have any sleeper picks that
you're riding with this weekend.
Speaker 4 (14:10):
I'm gonna stick with pay Billy. You know, he's a
local favorite and it's all it's he won. He got
in by winning the Fredriko Tessio Stakes. It's been a
long time, if ever they produced a winner. But I
just like I said, five wins as a three year old.
That's not by nothing, not for nothing. So pay Billy
uh if he if he wins, is gonna pay Billy, John, Joey,
(14:34):
everybody big time.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
What do you think, Matt, do you have any long
shots that you're potentially looking at? I think you already
shouted one out.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, Heart of Honor is is kind of what I'm
looking at. I like the fourth post position right in
the middle of the field coming in. We don't know
this horse, I mean bom and really it's making his
US debut at the Preakness, So we don't really know
a whole lot about how he'll run here in the
United States. So I tend to like horses that ab
other jockeys haven't seen run and don't know his running style.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
And if he is going to be a closer, let's
see what the pace is here.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
If it is a muddy track, if it is sloppy
and maybe a slower track, you might see somebody come
from the clouds like a heart of honor getting a
chance at fifteen, you know, sixteen to one, depending on
where he closes to come and get a big upset
in the Preakness.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Okay, all right, well, Luke, I got one more question
for you to round it out. And I hope you
take this as a compliment, but you look like a
degenerate a lot like myself. So I want to ask you,
do you have a degenerate ticket for us, a yolo
ticket if you would maybe a big payout play something
that we're not gonna hold you to, maybe over in
that super effective market, that's maybe just worth a little
bit of a sprinkle here.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
Okay, So let's take the situation I talked about earlier.
Let's say journalism gets a horrible trip and gets trapped
on the inside. Okay, take take his eight to five
out of it. Let's do he got heart in any order?
Heart of Honor, Pay Billy, River Tims, who he's kind
of like Sovereignty, like I talked about the last time
we talked, Sovereignty had been around long, like too long
(16:06):
to be trending, and people kind of forgot about him. Sorry.
River Tams is much the same way. He posted a
one sixteen speed rate about buyer speed rating earlier this year,
and that's I believe the best, if not one of
the best in the field this year. So put him
(16:27):
in there, and then you can even add Sandman, and
so you can have River Tams and Sandman are kind
of the more meat and potatoes part of that the
most likely. And then you go ahead and throw Heart
of Honor and pay Billy and if that hits, especially
if pay Billy or Heart of Honor is a windsor
places oh man.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Okay, all right, well, Matt Luke, Yeah, can I can
I ask Luther a question on that, because I am
curus Luke.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
What's your what's your theory when.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
It comes to boxes and it comes to playing all
and the crazier bets, because my co host on my
other show has once put all he picked the winner
and then hit the all button and was able to
cash and one about nine thousand dollars doing it. Okay,
because if you get a dog, you get a crazy
(17:15):
from the clouds. And I forget whichever it was was
two years ago that won the derby, the long shot
horse that won the derby, that escaped in my brain
and I apologize, But how do you feel about those
types of box and one in those crazier inside school bets.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
They are danger They're a dangerous game because I got
into that for a while, especially during COVID when that
was really the only betting thing in town, and I
would box. I'd find horses that were like six horse races,
so I could like do a ten cent super effective
box them all. It's like a thirty six dollars ticket
(17:54):
and I hit big on one of them, and it's
just it's not a it's not a very good, smart
long term thing, but you can hit big with it.
But I do like boxing superfectas because I just I
hate that. Oh instead I did dollar twenty instead of
doing two forty, and the long shot hit, but I
(18:16):
didn't have that, So I like to do all. If
I'm doing a super effect, I like to box it
and have all. So I'm just rooting for the horse,
the four horses to finish, rather than like any particular order.
That's my that's where I can go, right.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
I like that too.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Yeah, And I think for the average person doesn't bet horses,
it's fun not picking the order, just picking the top
four horses that come in. And granted that ticket at
fifty cents can get expensive, it can be up to
fifty sixty bucks on it, but it's worth it if
you're gonna bet that race.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
I think if you do like multiple horses for.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
Sure, and they have the it's like a quinila, but
it's like an omni box. They have a lot in
like other countries international racing where it's like you have
you pick two horses and if they finish anywhere in
the top three, yeah pays. But it doesn't matter if
it's their first, inserted, second and third whatever, and those
can be fun. I used to do early mornings South
(19:08):
Africa that was really Djen djdays was betting South Africa
news racing because it was like, you know, first thing
in the morning eight o'clock the racist start. I love
it gets me into the day, into.
Speaker 5 (19:20):
The love it.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Love it well, gentlemen, thank you so much for the
analysis this weekend.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
Good luck to you, Good luck to everyone out there.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
In their bets for the Preakness Stakes that is going
to do it for us today on the Betting Pros Podcast,
thanks so much for watching. Be sure to give this
fav a thumbs up if you enjoyed it. Also subscribe
if you're new so you don't miss a thing and
don't forget to download the Banking Pros app and sink
your sportsbooks today for Luke min Audo and Matt Praul,
I'm Seth with Wilcock.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
Take care of y'all.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 6 (19:50):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
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