Tariff-Triggered Recession Fears, Fallout From HHS Cuts, Knockoff GLP-1s and More

Pushback against the Trump administration’s massive government cuts exploded this weekend across America—and biopharma is no exception. Taking a deep dive into the leadership cuts, we found that more than half of the senior FDA leaders from six months ago are no longer there, and that’s just the leadership. Across the Department of Health and Human Services, some 20,000 people will be leaving—of their own accord or otherwise—amounting to a 25% reduction in headcount that would leave HHS with around 62,000 employees. With many of these people likely destined for biopharma, does this pose an ethical problem?  

 

Meanwhile, the escalating tariff war is beginning to ring alarm bells for the economy, with Goldman Sachs now predicting a 45% chance of a recession happening in the next 12 months. While pharma has historically been considered resistant to the challenges of a recession—people always need medicines—this time around could be different, in part because of the consumer-led obesity market. Thanks to the Trump administration’s decision to nix a Biden era proposal to cover GLP-1s under Medicare Part D—at least for now—these drugs will continue to cost consumers a pretty penny.  

 

Even without a recession being declared, Eli Lilly’s and Novo Nordisk’s stocks are falling significantly with the rest of the market. Lilly has lost more than $95 billion in market value in one month. Novo’s value has declined $72 billion.  

 

The drugmakers are also still battling makers of knockoff versions of their drugs. Most recently, Lilly filed a lawsuit against a med spa in Indianapolis for allegedly taking vials of tirzepatide and splitting them up into single doses that are sold to patients without the packaging inserts. 

 

Of course, Lilly and Novo aren’t the only pharma drug rivalry out there. There’s also Keytruda vs. Opdivo, Leqembi vs. Kisunla and more.  

 

Finally, we take a look at seven late-stage MASH candidates that could hit the market in the next few years, following the FDA’s 2024 approval of Madrigal’s Rezdiffra, the first treatment for the metabolic disorder.