HODL On For One More Day W/ Guest Infra Ep. 235

Join Bob and special Guest Infra as they talk about the economy, tariffs and predictions.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Thank you.

(00:30):
All right. Good morning, everybody. We're back.
And thanks for bearing through that intro music this morning.
Thought it'd be fun. And I think some of you enjoyed it secretly.
You don't have to admit it. It's OK.
You can go back and listen to it again later.

(00:53):
But I want to welcome everybody to Bitcoin Veteran Spaces number 235.
I'm your host, Bob Van Kirk, this morning, and today is Monday, August 4th, 2025.
If you're just waking up like Infra out on the West Coast, not to dox him, but we are at Bitcoin block height number 908,572,

(01:16):
with the Bitcoin price sitting just below $115,000, which means you can still pick up 870 sats for each U.S. dollar.
A couple of announcements. We do have in for today. He was hanging out with Marty Bent last Friday, so happy to have him this morning. We'll get a little bit of an economic update, hopefully, from him.

(01:38):
And let's see, just a reminder, Thursday, we're going to have Rob Warren from Bitcoin Park. He is going to talk about their Imagine If Summit that's happening in Nashville, Tennessee, this September 19th and 20th.
So that will be a lot of fun.

(01:58):
Let's see, we have BFP up here.
Maybe we get some matrix birds today, maybe not.
But before we jump into some macro topics and infernomics, let's say hi to BFP.
How are you doing this morning, sir?
I'm doing well.
How's it going, Bob?
It was a great weekend.

(02:19):
we got a nice little dip on Bitcoin and had some fun with the fam up at the
orange pill retreat, as we call it. And it was a good, a good time. So,
Rob, good morning. How was your weekend?
Hey, good morning, guys. Yeah, it was relaxing.

(02:44):
Yeah, it's funny, the piece that sweeps over you on a nice Bitcoin dip,
But glad to hear you guys are doing well.
And we do have a bunch of topics we can dive into.
But I think first, Infra, what's been on your mind with all the things that we saw in the market last week?
Tariffs kind of popping up on August 1st.

(03:05):
Obviously, we had Jerome Powell come out for the Fed and talk on Wednesday.
Markets have been reacting.
I think we got some other news that some of these sovereigns, maybe it was China, is slowing gold and other precious metals outflows.

(03:27):
So, yeah, just curious, like all those things that are going on, like what's your take on what's going on?
Yeah, well, there's a lot.
I would say also Kugler resigned from the Fed.
So this opens up kind of a spot for the shadow Fed, get someone on the inside that Trump can kind of indicate to everyone will be the next Fed chair.

(03:58):
Because, I mean, it's kind of like a president. I'm not a political expert, but I would imagine it's kind of like politics.
You know, the vice president is kind of assumed to be the next in running for president.
So I would imagine it's the same kind of thing where whoever replaces her on the Fed board, the board of governors, will kind of be the assumed nominee for next venture.

(04:24):
So, yeah, I would I would I would say that that's probably significant.
I wasn't really expecting her to resign or, you know, any of the existing governors to resign.
So that was interesting, caught my eye.
I would also say, you know, of course, Trump filing, firing the BLS commissioner was pretty notable.

(04:44):
This is, you know, very emerging market like stuff.
But, you know, he didn't like the data.
The ironic thing is that we saw a massive move down in rates.
So you would think he would be pleased.
He got what he wanted.
It just took a little bit of weak data.
But no, he was, you know, quite upset, fired the BLS commissioner.

(05:05):
We know, by the way, that BLS data has been bad going back many years.
I mean, five years, probably.
Obviously, COVID was, you know, a huge disruption in terms of eco data.
And there was a ton of noise and, you know, statistical issues and structural changes to the economy.

(05:26):
Also changes to the way the survey data was collected that a number of people pointed to.
So, yeah, there were a lot of issues already with the data. I would not say that it was manipulated for political or partisan reasons. I would just say the data has been bad, low quality data for a long time and had kind of nothing to do with with politics or Trump.

(05:51):
I mean, it was bad under Biden. We had a 12 Sigma likelihood that I think it was like 30 something straight BLS reports were revised down.
So it is statistically almost impossible for that to occur. So the data has been bad for a long time.
But, you know, firing the BLS commissioner, this is a very emerging market like thing to do and goes to kind of what we talked about the last time I was here,

(06:19):
which is, you know, whether it's monetary policy with the Fed, whether it's, you know, the statistics and eco data being reliable.
Bitcoin, you know what you're getting. The protocol is open source.
There's, you know, the blockchain is validated, right, very frequently.
So we know there's a security audit being done.

(06:43):
And yeah, like, you know what the inflation rate is going to be.
You know the monetary policy. It's a bearer asset.
You can take it anywhere in the world. It just I don't know. Maybe I'm weird, but it emerges to me.
Those properties emerge to me in a situation like this and just, you know, shine above, you know, heads and shoulders above the something like equity, certainly something like bonds.

(07:06):
I really don't know who would want to own U.S. government bonds here, given all the things that are going on, not only with the Fed, but also the BLS commissioner, right, the eco data.
You just kind of go down the list and it's like, you know, the reliability, the security of Bitcoin, the predictability of Bitcoin, something like that just emerges.

(07:30):
And it's like, you know, who who would want to own a centralized government bond and not only centralized, but, you know, we know the fiscal health of the U.S.
So, yeah, like I just it really kind of I think that over the next year, over the next two years is kind of a long medium to long term story.

(07:50):
It's not going to be an overnight thing. We're not going to get that omega candle to a gazillion dollars like some people talk about.
That's not my view. But I do think around the margins that things like Bitcoin and I am bullish gold to generally medium to long term.
I think that, you know, bear assets that have scarcity and can protect you during a, you know, a fiscal dominance regime where they are running negative real rates to inflate the debt away.

(08:20):
as Trump himself has talked that that is his intention.
I mean, he wants to cut the federal funds rate by an absurd amount
and then just finance the entire government on an overnight basis, basically,
with negative real rates, right?
So if you buy that Treasury bill, you're going to be a guaranteed –

(08:40):
it's going to be a guaranteed loss in inflation-adjusted terms.
That's what a negative real rate is.
And I don't see how that's possibly good for the dollar, by the way.
So, yeah, you know, something like gold or Bitcoin that has scarcity.
I mean, we know Bitcoin is more scarce, right, which is one of the reasons that I think it'll perform better than gold.
It has more scarcity. It's also a newer asset, smaller market cap, right.

(09:05):
Smaller size means kind of, you know, bigger moves, more volatility.
That being said, volatility is, you know, tame relative to, you know, say five years ago.
Like, yeah, we got a dip right over the past couple of days, but like Bitcoin appears to have changed after the ETFs.

(09:25):
It's just moving much more predictably.
It's moving much more like a like a mature asset.
Now, it's still, you know, a long ways from being completely mature.
But, you know, the days of like 30 percent daily candle are gone.
I mean, I remember watching, you know, that sort of thing in the very, very early days.

(09:47):
And it was like, it was nerve wracking, you know, and as you have a decrease in the volatility of Bitcoin, as again, all the kind of like, you know, properties of Bitcoin become, I think, recognized much more by the world, by corporations, by individuals, by even sovereigns.
I think that you see, you know, more and more capital around the margins kind of flow into Bitcoin.

(10:11):
And, you know, that the bigger it gets, the more capital flows into it, the, you know, the lower the volatility, in my opinion.
And you have the development of all these kind of, you know, complexes on top of Bitcoin.
So I, yeah, I'm very bullish for Bitcoin for the next, as long as your time horizon is longer than a couple months.

(10:31):
I think that Bitcoin is one of the best assets for the next couple of years.
You know, like, for example, I was looking at Turkey yesterday for a video for kind of a comparison.
A lot of people are saying, oh, you know, the U.S. is emerging market like.
And it's like, number one, you just realize that it's been that way for at least a year and a half or two years.

(10:52):
Number two.
OK, well, then let's look at an emerging market.
If you look at an emerging market like Turkey, yeah, the stock market in Turkish lira just goes straight up.
It's just vertical. But once you denominate it in, say, dollars, it's a much different story.
During the kind of 85 percent inflation that at the peak in 2022.

(11:15):
Yeah, like it barely broke to a new all time high in real terms and dollar terms.
Right. Adjusting for that loss of that, that failure of the currency.
So yeah, I still go down the list, don't want to own bonds, don't want to own equities, especially at these kind of valuations that we're seeing with equities.

(11:37):
So yeah, I understand people watch the hourly chart on Bitcoin and get all freaked out sometimes when it pulls back.
But if you look at the three-month chart, if you're going to look at the Bitcoin price, only look at it on the three-month chart.
or if you want to get really spicy, you can maybe put on the monthly chart.

(12:00):
And yeah, like the thing is just up and to the right.
So yeah, I'm not worried about the dip over the past couple of days.
I think that if anything, the events kind of transpiring in the macro world
just point even more bullish to Bitcoin.
So that's kind of how I see things.
Yeah, it's a really good analysis.

(12:20):
We do have a hand, but before we go to Wade and good morning, Wade and others who have joined us on the stage, wanted to mention, you know, we talked last week, late in the week, that after the Fed minutes, the dollar started strengthening and went over 100 on Dixie and now has pretty much given all that back and retraced back down under 99.

(12:44):
So and you're also seeing Bitcoin run up precipitously.
So I think the interesting thing is you had a lot of really good nuggets there.
But but one of the interesting things to me is just seeing how Bitcoin is playing with all of these, you know, all the things that you mentioned.

(13:07):
Right. Fed chair or not Fed chair, but Fed stepping down, potentially getting a new.
the shadow fed chair and then seeing what these countries are doing and just all these
things that impact markets.
Bitcoin has been overall pretty resilient.
I mean, I think it only retraced about four or five percent overall.

(13:30):
And here we are seeing it come back.
So, Wade, thanks for coming up on stage.
Do you see your hand?
And yeah, curious to hear what you have to say this morning.
Good morning, guys.
Good morning, Robert.
Me and my team are looking at some of the supply chain implications of some of the recent tariff moves and whatnot.

(13:51):
And it kind of seems like the administration is working both the gas and the brakes at the exact same time.
I'm not sure how you get a trade deal done with India and then you put a subsequent embargo out there, which apparently appears to impact the import of iPhones into the country due to the reprocessing of Russian oil in Indian petroleum refining capacity and whatnot and the redistribution of those flows.

(14:20):
I was just, Rob, I was just wondering if you could just for the group kind of break down what your thought or thesis is regarding, you know, the iPhones, the uranium imports from Russia, the petroleum issues, and then the gas and the brake narrative with both the tariffs and the trade deals.
Yeah, I think I'm not sure as much on the trade side. It's not really an area that I feel competent in to make a comment on that. But I would say that on more of the economic side, I would agree with the kind of gas and brake analogy at the same time.

(14:57):
Something like a tariff, for example, is really a tax. It's not, despite what the mainstream media will tell you, a 100% of it going to the consumer. That is not how it works. The tariff is only applied to the import cost of the goods.
So an iPhone, for example, you mentioned this is, you know, called $1,000.

(15:20):
Well, it's not a 10% tariff on $1,000.
It's a 10% tariff on $500 because the average margin for goods from China is about between 45 and 50%.
So the tariff only applies to that import cost.
So instead of $100 tariff, we're already talking about much lower amount.

(15:41):
We're talking about $50 in actuality.
Well, and then you have to realize that history tells us that 100% of that $50 does not get passed to the consumer.
That's just not how it works.
About a third gets eaten by the supplier.
A third gets eaten by the U.S. firm that is importing it.

(16:03):
And then a third gets eaten by the final U.S. consumer.
So out of $50, if you take a third of that, that is really what the consumer will pay.
Well, a tariff like that is basically a consumption tax when you look at it, especially if you
don't see an offsetting move in the currency, which, right, the dollar has been extremely

(16:24):
weak relative to other currencies for the past nine months or so So you not taxing foreign countries which is what happens when your currency will appreciate It can offset the tariff actually
which is what we saw in the first term. It's not doing that. The dollar is not doing that.
So really at the heart of it, a tariff is a consumption tax. And it's not to say whether

(16:51):
that's good or bad. I personally think that some degree of tariffs would be good, but it's a
consumption tax. So you are decreasing aggregate demand, which in an economy that's driven mainly
by consumer spending, we know the K-shaped economy, we know kind of the lower three quarters
are tapped out. It's going to have a negative impact on kind of nominal growth. But then on

(17:18):
On the other hand, you have him proposing, you know, not negative real rates and kind of this run it hot sort of regime domestically when it comes to a monetary and fiscal policy.
We know the fiscal deficit is running at about 7 percent of GDP, which is just insane.
So, yeah, you know, it's a strange world to try to forecast because, yeah, you have these sorts of push-pull where it's like, well, where's the middle, right?

(17:49):
Trying to find out where the middle is between the gas and the break, like where we're going to actually settle out is difficult to say.
And I would also say that, like, for assets, you know, by if the if their goal is to decrease the trade deficit, you know, it's you have to take into account that the other way of saying that the Trump admin is trying to reduce the trade deficit.

(18:12):
The other way to say that is they are trying to reduce the capital account surplus.
And so this is, you know, again, a headwind for dollar denominated assets.
So when you're trying to forecast, you know, where's the stock market go? What are bonds doing? What is kind of real estate and dollar denominated assets? What are they going to do in this push-pull environment? You know, that's another factor. So there's a lot of uncertainty. There's a lot of volatility. I'm really kind of like uncertain how it all shakes out.

(18:44):
I do think they want to reduce reliance on the rest of the world. The rare earths were really a big deal. You could tell when it came when it comes to China and India with India.
It's like, you know, all the I started to notice all of a sudden they're talking about Trump and key officials are talking about kind of like some of the H1B dynamics.

(19:06):
So, yeah, like it's really hard to, you know, get a pulse on like where they really stand.
I mean, I would support efforts, you know, if they are going to try to deal with some of the remittance issues, which are driving to some degree, you know, our current account deficit not contributing in a meaningful way in a positive direction for the U.S. economy.

(19:29):
that's great if they're going to try to reduce this kind of you know bizarre behavior by
multinationals to fire americans just to hire cheap foreign labor via h1bs i would support that
but like trying to put your finger on like how much they really care about about reliance on

(19:49):
you know a foreign country for xyz it's really hard to say because it's just their policy is just
like all over the place. So it's really kind of hard to get a feel for how much they really care
about any of these issues. As we reshore, can we really afford to have like large tariff impact on

(20:10):
Chinese rare earths or Russian uranium? Or is that just going to be like a windfall for the Canadians?
But then again, we still have trade deals up in the air with the Canadians as well. So it's really
hard for us to get like an idea of where we're headed with the supply chain here for me and my
guys. Yeah. And I mean, look, tariffs alone are not, we're never going to re-industrialize. They

(20:31):
were never going to reshore. That's just the problem is the dollar is so overvalued, right?
The degree of overvaluation with the currency is so pronounced that, you know, a 20% tariff
is not going to do much when the dollar is, say, 60% overvalued.
I'm just, no one really has a firm level on the Dixie that is not fair value.

(20:57):
And there's different ways of calculating it, like purchasing power parity.
But yeah, we're talking a significantly overvalued dollar.
So until that is addressed, you're not going to see,
Yeah, you're trying to incentivize domestic production of, say, rare earths or core commodities and inputs for critical industries.

(21:22):
You're trying to do that. But if the dollar is still overvalued to a degree that is not offset by the tariff, it's still going to be in the economic interests of these companies to go to other countries.
And personally, you know, from a national security perspective, I think that that's a horrible, that's incredibly dangerous, you know, and I would like for them to try to reduce the reliance on other countries for critical inputs.

(21:51):
But yeah, like a tariff, you know, if you assume the dollar, say, 50 percent, 60 percent, even 70 percent overvalued, a 10, 15, 20 percent tariff, it's still not, you know, it still doesn't make economic sense to produce these, to try to produce these things in America.
So, yeah, I think the dollar is really the one to watch for all that.

(22:16):
i do think you're right though to another thing you said you know both you and wade it's like
if markets like if if trump is kind of all over the place like markets like
certainty right and one thing we're seeing is uncertainty i think bitcoin performs well
under any condition uh but i i think it really performs well with all the the uncertainty out

(22:42):
there. Did want to welcome to the stage Neil and Texas Toast as well. And you guys have any
thoughts this morning? We can kind of take this conversation wherever we want to this morning.
It's kind of a manic Monday or a macro Monday. And yeah, just want to say good morning to you
guys. And whether it pertains to this subject or others, wanted to welcome you to the stage. So

(23:08):
So, Neil, Texas Coast, how are you guys doing?
I'm doing real well.
I have a – do you want – I can just say my brief little thought from everything that has been – I've heard thus far.
Yeah, so anyways, just listening to everything you guys have been saying, you know, my mission is always here to tie this –

(23:35):
the monetary happenings of the day kind of back to orange pilling the normies and like the thing
that just pops out to me is like we have all the personal shake-ups personnel shake-ups at the fed
and all the tariff drama and these are all just decisions being made by people and at the end of
the day it really doesn't matter who's at the helm of this ship um this problem isn't management like

(23:58):
Like the root core of this problem is, you know, systemic.
And that's why Bitcoin performs as it does in all the different, you know, it doesn't matter.
Rates are high, rates are low, like Bitcoin is going to perform.
So I don't know, that's just my two sats.

(24:19):
Yeah, and I agree.
And I'm kind of in the position of they have no choice.
They have no other options.
This is the only route they can go. I don't know, like, Robert, do you see another route that they can go with all this?
They're going to have to devalue the dollar.
It looks like they're going to try to maybe get rid of the Fed and push stable coins and do all this kind of, you know, you can tell their backs are against a wall.

(24:46):
And it seems like this is kind of the only path forward.
I don't really see another path outside of stable coins and lowering rates and devaluing the dollar.
And then you don't have a buyer for your treasuries because the rates are so low.
So you force them to buy them through stable coins.
And then in Bitcoin, how does Bitcoin fit into that picture for you?

(25:11):
Yeah, so I would say that they do have a choice.
It just comes down to trade off.
So if your goal with the debt is to address the fiscal health and the debt picture, the way you do that is by running nominal growth higher than the interest rate on your debt.
Now, the issue is that the bond market just lived through the worst kind of surprise inflation.

(25:41):
Printing 40% of the money is not a surprise, but it surprised the bond market for whatever reason.
surprise them. And they don't want to live through another bout of surprise inflation.
So they're going to be kind of extra sensitive to being repressed. And so I think that if your

(26:02):
goal is to get nominal growth above the cost of the debt, remember that the whole point of a 10
year bond yield is to approximate nominal growth expectations. So if they are going to try to do
the we're going to grow our way out of the debt, well, bond yields are going to go higher, right?
If nominal growth is going higher, bond yields are going to go higher. So you eventually get into

(26:24):
a direct confrontation with the bond market. It is a, you know, one party is trying to
have rates lower than they naturally should be. And the other is trying to have rates,
you know, maybe slightly higher than they should be. Like the incentives of the bond market,
and then the incentives of the admin are in direct conflict with each other.

(26:45):
And the only way that you really address that is by, you know, QE, yield curve control,
you know, some intervention to prevent the bond market from behaving as it naturally
would and forcing rates to be lower.
And yeah, the 51 Fed Accord, the funny thing about that is that it was to establish Fed

(27:08):
independence, right?
And now all the talk about a new accord between Fed and Treasury is to basically reverse the 1951 Fed Accord and to resorb the Fed into the U.S. Treasury.
And look, I understand people might support Trump.
I understand people might like Trump.

(27:29):
I would just say that generally that is a very dangerous road to start going down.
I kind of see the point, though, that I think you're making, which is it's inevitable or it's kind of required.
Right. They don't have a choice. But I would just say, you know, imagine Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom setting monetary policy.

(27:50):
Right. So, again, it's just one one more indication, one more bullish indicator that should be driving people towards Bitcoin.
Right. But there's two things with that. It's like in a world where, you know, Bitcoin is more firmly established as a, you know, the neutral reserve asset alongside gold.

(28:17):
It kind of takes the monetary policy. It makes it, you know, not mean as much.
So I think it becomes less scary in that kind of sense.
And then politically, you can see how Trump really takes, he knows about Andrew Jackson.
He's right. He talks about him a lot.

(28:37):
I think he kind of sees himself as Jackson-esque.
So I think, you know, that's part of his motivation with getting rid of the Fed or talking about, talking it down and fighting with them.
But yeah, I just see in a world where Bitcoin is what we think it is, you know, the U.S. monetary policy becomes less and less significant.

(29:01):
Yeah, I would say it's still going to probably be, I agree, kind of around the margins for the next, say, decade.
You will see an erosion as, you know, the reliance on kind of the dollar system and kind of the fiat system as that is eroded.

(29:22):
And it's already started, right?
We know that if you take foreign held debt as a share of total U.S. government debt, that peaked in 2013.
We know that a dollar share of FX reserves peaked over 10 years ago.
Right. So a lot of these things we everyone knows about the gold purchases by central banks over the past couple of years.

(29:44):
Like a lot of these things are already in motion. They're just kind of gradual.
It's not, in my opinion, it's not like a sudden, you know, Omega candle or this crazy cataclysmic event. It is just kind of gradually, slowly around the margins. You see, you know, a move away from the dollar, a move away from kind of the legacy system and into, you know, I mean, in a foreturning, what do you want?

(30:12):
You want scarce bearer assets. And so I think that, you know, that recognition is being being made by by the globe, right, by individuals, by corporations and by sovereigns.
And I think that, yeah, like around the margins, it'll continue for a while, but it's not going to be this dramatic overnight thing.

(30:33):
I agree, but, you know, there is a chance. That's why I like holding Bitcoin even more. It's like, I'm not expecting this, you know, God candle, you know, really bad scenario, but there's a chance that could happen.
Um, and I feel like as the world gets more and more unstable, it's like those chances

(30:54):
go up.
I still don't think that'll be the case, but, um, you know, I think a lot of people get
caught up just completely disregarding it.
And, and I think that's, that's part of the reason why you hold it is for that scenario.
Yeah, no, it's, it's definitely a chance, you know, I would say maybe, I don't know
if I had to put a number on it, probably five to 15% chance.

(31:17):
But yeah, like to your point, even in that sort of black swan sort of event, you know, I just the only situation that I see Bitcoin not performing positively is either kind of a correlation to one sort of event because it behaves as a high beta NASDAQ, regardless whether we like that or not.

(31:41):
So when you see kind of a correlation of one VAR shock in the kind of trad fi markets, you get a pullback in Bitcoin.
It's just kind of how it is. But like, you know, on a longer term time frame, I think that, you know, black swans, really the black swan that would be catastrophically bad for Bitcoin is a deflationary shock.

(32:03):
You know, a significant deflationary shock. And I just don't see that being possible in a highly levered debt based system.
Yeah, it gets me thinking about, you know, you're talking about bearer assets, gets me thinking about how, you know, there is this push if you read the administration and some of these regulators.

(32:26):
and then also what BlackRock has been saying.
They're trying to create systems to tokenize real-world assets
and put them in a place where people can just move them around.
And I think that maybe it's joining the party,

(32:46):
but it's also potentially, at times as adoption occurs,
something that could slow down Bitcoin.
Because I think people like normal people just get confused between what what right Like they don understand the true digital scarcity of Bitcoin Like what was the real invention here

(33:07):
Or what was the real discovery?
It was true verifiable digital scarcity.
And so, yeah, it'll be interesting to see
how this stuff plays out.
Does anybody else on the stage have any other questions?
And also while we get there maybe,
There is the opportunity to come up on stage, guys.

(33:28):
I didn't say it this morning because I was just so enthralled by that opening music.
But if you want to come up on stage, hit that little microphone button in the bottom left and leave your comments in the comment section, that little purple pill.
So far, I'm the only one.
We should have a contest who can leave the most comments.
But, yeah, any other questions for Robert or where do we want to take this, guys?

(33:51):
We can kind of jump around, like I said before, cover some topics, maybe some related topics.
But, yeah, any other things that were crossing your mind as Wade and Robert were going back and forth, Texas?
Yeah, and it can be crickets.
That's fine.
But, yeah, what do you guys think?

(34:18):
I know it's fun on a Monday.
Like, Bob, I'll say this.
A moment of silence for Elon.
So there you had it.
I'll say this about real world assets, right?
Like you're still trusting.
I don't get the hype around all that RWA stuff.
Like, you know, whether, say it's gold.
Like you're still trusting the custodian, right?

(34:41):
Like there's still counterparty risks.
So personally, I would not, you know, I'm not going to be head over heels for that RWA thing.
um yeah it's just you know it might be on a blockchain right and you might have this kind
of common thread which is the blockchain but really it's quite different from bitcoin
you're gonna put it on chain dog oh yeah with gold it's like nothing has changed if you put it

(35:09):
on the on the chain um nothing changes with with its value proposition and what it is and why it
failed his money in the first place.
It's like, you know, with some things like real estate and some of these other assets,
I can kind of see it maybe a use case in a world without Bitcoin, but we have Bitcoin.

(35:32):
So screw all that.
I would also say, Bob.
Yeah, I do think like everyone.
Yeah, I was going to say pivot if anyone is interested.
it is that Tucker Carlson interview that he did with the central, not the central, Richard
Warner, who ironically was kind of the economist that got me thinking in the kind of silent

(36:00):
depression sort of framework that I've been working on.
It was reading Richard Warner's papers and listening to his speeches at various academic
institutions.
So his interview with Tucker, if anyone watched that, I thought was pretty interesting.
Maybe it's a potential pivot if anyone watched that.

(36:21):
Yeah, I did listen to it on one of my morning walks that I do.
I didn't listen to the entire thing.
I probably got through about 65% of it.
But yeah, I would encourage everybody to listen to it.
Not sure if anybody else on the stage heard it.
I know is making its rounds around X.

(36:43):
I think one of the big takeaways for me is that I've actually heard him speak before, certainly.
But Tucker Carlson's audience is gigantic.
And so maybe this gets this message out into more ears and more minds.
I wonder, though, if he has come to the same conclusion about Bitcoin, because it didn't go there necessarily, right?

(37:08):
I, again, didn't listen to the whole thing, but what, do you know what his stance on Bitcoin is, Robert?
I don't know.
I'm about 85%.
Sorry, from what Simon Dixon, he has, he's had interaction with him before, before Bitcoin existed.
They were having some interactions in the monetary reform community and he touched on it in his last show.

(37:31):
He basically said that Simon went the way of Bitcoin.
Werner went the way of Bitcoin.
of like just doubling down on QE, saying that Bitcoin is a scam and is never going to work.
And then there was one other guy that like went total black pill or dark side and is basically working for the CBDCs of, I think, the Europeans, but I forget.

(38:02):
Maybe Skidoo knows a little more. He's got his hand up. What's up?
no not not not more to add to it but i was gonna say i just finished listening to that tucker
carlson interview yesterday it was it was amazing it was really good um you know for some of his
bitcoiners to some extent not not totally new info but but there was new info and it was deep

(38:26):
and it was broad um it was great highly recommend it i i left it just being like if i had this guy's
phone number i would call him right now because i want to ask him his perspective i assume he
understands some things about bitcoin i wanted to understand his perspective on what uh

(38:46):
what distortions and what games can these same powers that from his interview with tucker shows
how just how deep and long range they can go with a plan to take down the japanese economy and all
these things, what could they potentially do to try to manipulate Bitcoin into destabilizing

(39:09):
it or not allowing price rises or whatever?
I just wonder what his perspective was.
Yeah, it is interesting.
I wanted to go to Neil.
I see his hand up.
Go ahead, sir.
Yeah, just to answer the Werner question on what the solution.
So I heard him talking about, like, I would say he's, he believes in decentralization, but he wants to decentralize the banks. So he said that it's what actually creates real growth and makes the healthy economy is all the like, small, small banks giving small business loans out.

(39:46):
I think that's the simplest way of putting what he thinks the solution is, is decentralizing the banking industry itself, not reforming it, just smashing the central and pushing it local to small banks, small business loans, not big banks buying assets and creating money that way.

(40:11):
So he's definitely in the – he doesn't think fiat's bad.
It's just kind of the application of the big centralized organ is – I think that's the best way to describe what he would say his solution is.
Yeah, and the central bank has grown bigger as well, right?

(40:32):
If you look at M2 divided by M0, everything changed with the GFC.
If you look at consumer based loans relative to, say, business investment, business and industrial investment also peaked in the mid to late 90s.
Right. So you go down the list and you compare you because I've been doing this for the past five days or whatever, every morning for a couple hours.

(40:57):
Everything, everything, something changed in the 90s to kind of early 2000s during that time period where the central bank grew even larger.
We know the Fed's balance sheet went from like 8% of GDP all the way up to 24% of GDP.
We know that M0 started to play a much larger role in kind of the money creation game, as he accurately talks about.

(41:23):
And so, yeah, like something clearly changed.
We know M2, the velocity of money, fell off a cliff in the late 90s.
I think a lot of it was kind of the hyper-financialization of the economy via this globalist sort of experiment that we went down.
And a lot of those, if you look at the trade deficit relative to some of these metrics, you can see that money velocity starts to fall as the trade deficit is growing wider.

(41:52):
Again, going back to that capital account surplus story, that's hyper-financialization kind of right there. That's the root of it, is turning your economy, you know, dollar Dutch disease, as Luke Groman says, turning your economy into away from a net productive one that provides real goods and services into one that just is a bunch of, you know, hedge funds and, you know, Jane Street algorithm building mathematicians, right, for some hedge fund.

(42:21):
That is what we've turned our economy into. It's directly correlated to the money velocity, by the way. And a lot of these things all kind of peaked in the mid to late 90s. Different ones peaked at slightly different times, but it's kind of in that general timeframe that everything really changed in a structural way in the economy.

(42:42):
And it is the direct result of growing centralization, of growing size, growing control, and growing, you know, unproductiveness of lending.
Because you can see it very clearly and say consumer loans divided by, you know, M0, for example, or M2.

(43:02):
You know, the share of consumer-facing loans or the share of business-facing loans as a share of the overall money supply, it peaked, right?
And we know velocity fell. We know the economy became hyper-financialized. So it's all kind of, I'm trying to all tie it together for a video, but it's kind of a, there's a number of different interrelated concepts that I think are all linked. It's just kind of difficult to draw that link.

(43:31):
Yeah, it was really interesting to hear him talk about QE because he invented the term QE and he basically put it as it would be productive if QE was used for small business loans.
And it's unproductive and detrimental and will lead to disaster if it inflates and goes directly into assets and kind of monetizes everything.

(43:59):
So they kind of like took his model and used it the exact wrong way.
He said like not to use it.
And so now it's he's just kind of like, what are you guys doing?
I said, do it the right way.
And you guys bastardized my invention.
Yeah, QE gets a bad rap, but really, you know, and I read some of his work on QE when he was proposing it for Japan.

(44:26):
And really, the way he proposed it makes perfect sense.
I mean, you know, is it this kind of, you know, ANCAP utopia?
No, it's not, right?
Like, it has ties to this, you know, kind of old regime.
But, like, if you're going to be in the old regime, his method of QE is actually quite
smart.

(44:47):
The problem, like you said, is that they totally bastardized his concept of QE and just took
it in this bizarre direction.
yeah it's really good really good interview i think man it there's just so many topics that

(45:10):
you could talk about related to this um and i don't want to you know go away from this too far
but um kind of hopping back to what we were talking about a little bit earlier um i wonder
like the people on stage, does it stand to reason you guys think that sanctioned countries are
secretly mining Bitcoin? And the reason I ask it is because, you know, we were talking about

(45:35):
tokenization and maybe being a distraction to Bitcoin. But don't you think that it's very likely
that these countries are trying to get their hands on as much Bitcoin as possible and doing it in a
sovereign way where it really can't be stopped. Anybody can jump in on that or hop back to the
previous topic. But yeah, any thoughts on that? Yeah, I mean, we know for a fact Russia's doing

(46:00):
it, you know, to what extent and everything. It's like hard to know because they're sanctioned and
they're kind of behind this, this, this, these regimes that we don't have a huge look inside,
whether it be Iran or Russia or China. It's like, you know, we know that Russia is doing it because
they're starting to settle some trade in Bitcoin. So it's like, where are they getting the Bitcoin?

(46:24):
You know, I would assume it's through mining. And we know they're like Soviet era infrastructure,
you know, has an abundance of power generation in that country. So, you know, base assumption is
Absolutely. Yes. Especially if you're sanctioned and you want a way to get around some of this stuff and monetize.

(46:44):
That's that's the way to do it.
Go ahead, BFP. Yeah, I'd have to say that most are not, in my opinion.
And that's just because the people in government, they crave control at at all levels.
And that's pretty much worldwide, any country that they want control of their citizens.

(47:07):
And Bitcoin does not offer them control.
So if they get like, you know, in bed with Bitcoin, it's almost like freedom to the people.
And like Trump, he kind of did the whole co-opting thing inadvertently.
But, you know, we don't know what he thinks and we just see what he does.

(47:28):
So his actions speak louder than his words, because we all know, you know, he's he's definitely the best president out of the two we had a choice in.
But these are all people in government. It's not like the people of China are getting to vote to whether to mine Bitcoin and all that.

(47:50):
It's all these small groups of people that control. So I don't think they're going to adopt Bitcoin.
I think it's going to come from the people that are on the streets, the plebs.
The plebs are going to adopt it, and it's going to be a grassroots movement.

(48:11):
I think there's a big difference, though, between sovereigns adopting Bitcoin and individuals.
I'd like to think you're right, that people will see it as freedom money.
But, you know, the biggest thing that these nation states control is the narrative inside their countries.
Right. And then everything that goes to fit that narrative.

(48:34):
So I just think. But they're losing.
Sure, absolutely. Because you have the Internet. Right.
Yes, exactly. But I think that it's just in my mind, like if I'm a Bitcoin solves problems.
And so I think that these nation states, they have a big problem if they're either trying to get away from the dollar system or they're not allowed into it.

(48:59):
They're going to find other ways. So a lot of countries are able to get around it because they have natural resources, energy, those types of things.
And so it only stands to reason for me that they would use that energy to mine Bitcoin.
Well, I think that's what happened in El Salvador.
So you saw an example of just what you said there.

(49:22):
So there a good you know but it was a person who thought hey I don want to get the base I don want my people to get the base And he seems like a base guy even though he like a dictator And so we see how that plays out in the long run
Yeah, I mean, one topic that we touched on maybe a few weeks ago when it came out

(49:46):
was just like another example, Pakistan, right?
They are now allowing banks to buy and sell Bitcoin.
But you have what you said, BFP, an example with Algeria, who announced, I think it was last week, that they banned everything to do with Bitcoin.

(50:07):
So all wallets are illegal overnight. No mining is allowed.
And so it's interesting to see just these nation states, like what's coming out of them related to Bitcoin.
And I think you can make arguments on both sides.
Again, I'd love to see it come from the bottom up like it has from the people adopting it.

(50:28):
And governments have no choice.
But I think we'll see a mix dependent upon the countries that are either taking drastic measures.
What came out of China, guys?
I was kind of unplugged over the weekend for the most part.
What came out of China?
Did they say they banned Bitcoin again?
Or what did you guys see there?

(50:49):
I didn't really pay attention.
It's kind of only like the drippings of it for me.
I don't know exactly.
I think I heard they banned it for the hundredth time or something,
but nothing really major.
Yeah. So big nothing burger.

(51:11):
But again, the point,
the point I'm trying to make is that I think you'll see where it solves a
problem and people identify one the problem but then two that bitcoin is the best solution
you're going to see it used um money is a tool and adoption is inevitable uh you got a new speaker

(51:33):
request let's see if uh yeah if you guys want to talk amongst yourselves while i try to get
Well, I had something to say about
There's a
Adam Curry and Dvorak on No Agenda
We're talking about mackerel's in the

(51:55):
Texas prison and how that's their currency
So I think we're going to see
Humans make currencies what they are by what they value the most
And I think as the slow drip of time
keeps winding on, people are just going to figure it out.
I mean, people aren't stupid. I know there's a lot of stupid people out there,

(52:18):
but in general, people are smart, and they're going to figure out
why would I keep my money in this leaky bucket when I have this
ridiculously sturdy bucket that holds water like
nothing else. They're going to adopt.
Or adapt.
what's weird is normally the chinese seem like they make sense and they make sense in almost

(52:43):
everything that they say except their gold disclosures and their bitcoin policy and
disclosures and that doesn't make a lot of sense considering their their nearest dearest ally right
now you know the russians and cyberbank are doing bitcoin related bitcoin adjacent activity and so
But the Chinese statements, they're nonsensical.

(53:07):
They don't match up with the economic and financial policy of their allies.
Yeah.
Sorry.
The China thing is FUD, guys.
Just look it up.
It didn't happen.
I just wanted to jump up and say that.
Just throw it into Grok or whatever.
That was FUD being thrown around.

(53:28):
So where did that originate?
And thanks for that.
Do appreciate it.
It's funny what you pick up when you're only halfway paying attention.
Yeah, okay.
It was one of those Bitcoin or crypto accounts that just throws stuff up for engagement, and it's spread.

(53:50):
If you look at the replies, Grok is all over them inside the replies saying it's FUD.
Dig deeper.
Yeah, thank you.
um kobe thanks for coming up if that's how you say your uh your name yep um welcome to the stage
did you have anything in particular you wanted to talk about or just uh coming up to say hi

(54:13):
no i i just came up to throw that one up in the air for you guys uh i'm enjoying listening to you
so that was it appreciate it perfect yeah um so guys we maybe have about five minutes left in the
show. Did want to make sure we gave everybody a chance to give some parting thoughts. Do want to
thank Robert again for coming on and giving us some of these things to think about macro updates.

(54:40):
There's a lot going on. Please check out Infernomics on YouTube. He puts out great videos.
And Robert, did you want to say anything about when you're, was it an interview with Marty or
Or what were you doing on Friday, if you don't mind me asking?
And when might something come out of that?
Yeah, actually, I think it's today.

(55:01):
And appreciate the kind words.
Yeah, Marty Bent or the TFTC, I think that comes out today.
And then also I was talking with Roberto Rios, who runs the Peruvian Bull account.
He's another great macro follow for the Bitcoin world.
So if you don't follow him, go check him out.

(55:24):
And conversation with him should be coming out any day now as well.
Yeah, good stuff.
While we're gathering our thoughts for maybe final wrap up here, I did want to make an announcement that Bitcoin Veterans is having its second summit.

(55:46):
2025, it's going to be November 10th and 11th, right around Veterans Day in Nashville, Tennessee.
and excited to do that two-day event.
So it'll be Monday the 10th and then Veterans Day the 11th.
And the main conference, it looks like, is going to be on the 10th.

(56:06):
But then there's going to be a range day and some other stuff, other things.
So if you guys are interested in that, you don't have to be like an expert marksman
to participate in range day.
So don't be afraid.
There'll be gear provided so you don't have to bring your entire arsenal and all that ammo on the plane you're flying in.

(56:28):
But it should be a good event.
I know a lot of people enjoyed it last year.
But just kind of one part of it is we don't need just attendees.
Love to get people involved.
So right now, looking for speakers, workshop leads, sponsors, volunteers, all that stuff.

(56:50):
So if you're interested in that, either finding out information about being an attendee or you want to get involved, check out BitcoinVeterans.org forward slash Summit 2025.
We'll be trying to talk about that and remind the audience each day.
We do this every weekday, 10 a.m. Eastern.

(57:12):
Please follow me or anybody up here on stage.
And you'll see us every morning doing this.
So that's my announcement for this morning, but wanted to go around the horn and see if people had any final thoughts or parting words for this Monday as we send people off to go stack more sets.

(57:35):
I had a quick thing to say about media in general.
Every time they mention like that China thing or anything, really, Pakistan, you know, our media is controlled.
Operation Mockingbird, I think something recently came out and told us about that.

(57:55):
But it's not only is our media control, but the other governments are controlling their media even more than ours.
So what we get fed through the main sources of media, you always have to think, why are they telling us this?
And that's the main thing is just you have to take a defensive position.

(58:15):
I'm not saying it's not true, but they usually do the half-truths and they feed you something to make you chew on it while something else is going on in the corner.
So just keep listening to spaces like these and talking to people and reading books and control your information diet.

(58:36):
because I learned it was COVID that really turned me
because I was a nincompooper,
not really very bright when it came to just listening and not thinking.
So critical thinking.
Thanks for having me, Bob.
100% agree.
And Tucker Carlson's dad was in charge of a lot of that propaganda

(58:59):
for his whole life.
So just a thing to think about when you see Tucker Carlson have people on,
it's like, why now?
Why is this coming out?
Who's he interviewing?
Why haven't they been talking about this for so long?
Because that guy's been around for a long time.

(59:19):
But now's the time it's going to go.
His message is going mainstream.
Why?
So other than that, have a wonderful Monday.
Yeah, I agree.
Yeah, I agree with that, Texas. And I think of those things often. And it's partly why, you know, you have to be selective as to what you listen to. Like, I subscribe or not subscribe. I guess I follow Tucker Carlson, but I don't. I rarely listen to an episode.

(59:47):
One, they're too long.
And two, there's just more exciting things usually to consume.
And then three, I think there's people who do a really good job of dissecting those things
and pulling out the key points and posting them in a variety of places.
So you can get those nuggets without having to listen to the whole thing.
So just depends on how you consume and who you're trying to get it from.

(01:00:09):
But I totally agree.
There's a lot of filtering that needs to be done by everybody.
And I love your point, DFP.
I think most of the people in this space do, you know, use their noggins and critical thinking.
And so that's what I appreciate the most about Bitcoin and Bitcoiners.
We're always challenging ourselves to learn more, to gain perspective, to hopefully listen to new voices and not always just be in these, you know, what people just kicking around the same thing.

(01:00:44):
We try to keep it interesting, light and fun on this. It's always great, though, to have people who can talk about the macro trends like Robert.
And we don't do that every day, but it's fun to talk about philosophy, too, like we did last week with Neil.
And, you know, we'll get to hear some other cool things on Thursday about Bitcoin Park and what they're doing.

(01:01:07):
And then I will keep telling you every day to check out Bitcoin Veterans Summit and maybe come as an attendee or or help out, help get on the mission, help other people get on the mission.
So any final words, Wade, Neil or Pope?
And again, Pope, thanks for coming up the first time.
And 23 Skidoo, I see you there as well.
So anybody who wants to jump in, let's wrap it up here in the next five minutes.

(01:01:31):
Yeah, I'll just say, don't trust, verify.
When USA Today comes out and says that XRP is the best $500 investment,
you know you can't trust the news you're reading.
Yeah, I wonder who paid them to say that.
Go ahead, Wade.
Yeah, guys, just be your own security manager, self-custody.

(01:01:57):
I'll jump in, say goodbye, say thank you, Bob.
And for whatever it's worth, I just bought a start nine setup yesterday.
And I'm really psyched to go down that rabbit hole and start running the node.
Yeah, good stuff.
They do make it pretty easy.

(01:02:18):
Take some time to download the blockchain, but it's all good.
Neil, maybe your hand is showing up and you don't mean it to, but final words from you, sir.
Yeah, I just had one little thing to say on the nation state versus pleb adoption. So it's like, I mean, if you go down and buy the game theory and think that Bitcoin is like some Nash equilibrium, like I do, but then that means that stacking sats, that's the optimal strategy for all players, irrespective of who.

(01:02:45):
So I'm not really worried about who's stacking or what size or whether it's a nation state or just some little guy.
Like stacking, anyone stacking stats is good if you kind of go down.
That's my take on the nation versus Bleb.
Good stuff.
Do you want to give Robert one last stab at final words?

(01:03:07):
And once again, sir, thanks for coming up and sharing your stuff with us today.
Yeah, appreciate it.
I would just say also to the point about the media, you're going to hear that stuff here first, like nine months before you hear, you know, even someone like Tucker Carlson, but especially the mainstream media, you're going to hear it, you know, in rooms like this.

(01:03:31):
And so, yeah, I would say that there's a, you know, arbitrage, an information arbitrage and some degree of asymmetry for the pleb, because you will hear certain themes here first, not just this room, but places like this before before they ever make it to Tucker, let alone before they ever make it to, you know, the mainstream mainstream.

(01:03:57):
Yeah, you do find that. I think the good, maybe another good takeaway too, is that the people around you that don't come in these spaces, they don't understand this stuff.
Like they really are looking at that US Today article and thinking, oh, man, I need to act on this.

(01:04:23):
It's strange how some people trust certain media outlets.
Like if it's in there, it must be true.
So, yeah, continue to be vigilant.
But don't be surprised when the Normieville people around you in your life come to you with these crazy ideas that they're pushing out in the propaganda outlets or I'm sorry, mainstream media outlets.

(01:04:47):
But thanks, guys, for coming up.
We're going to wrap the show here.
I do want to thank everybody who joined us today, everyone who had us on in the background, all the speakers for the lively discussion.
Please do follow everybody that's up here.
and whether you're a veteran or not,
if you do need help running a node
or any other thing on your Bitcoin journey,
please do visit bitcoinveterans.org.

(01:05:08):
Throw your information in the,
I guess it's a form
and we'll get you plugged into valuable resources
on your Bitcoin journey.
But that's all we have for today, guys.
We'll do it again tomorrow.
Please join us 10 a.m. Eastern.
Want to wish you guys a wonderful Monday
and remember,
don't shitcoin.

(01:05:30):
I'll bring back an old favorite and say it's like taking cough medicine to cure your hemorrhoids.
People that use fiat currency as a store of value, we call them the core.

(01:05:53):
We call them the core.
Thank you.