Hump Day Hangout Ep. 266

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Thank you.

(00:30):
All right, good morning, boys and girls, friends and family.
Maybe even some foes.
Hope not.
But wanted to wish everybody a good morning.
We are back.
It's Wednesday, hump day.
Thanks for joining us.

(00:50):
Looks like we got a few people up on stage.
And sure, just as I come on the mic, my fertilizer guy comes out.
So if you hear some interesting sounds today, that's why.
But we're at it again.
It's Bitcoin Veteran Spaces number 266, where we talk about Bitcoin and other things.

(01:14):
My name is Bob Van Kirk.
I'll be your host this morning.
Yes, fully doxxed.
And it's another great morning with producer Eric.
He always surprises me and probably you too with his music.
We'll try to get him on track.
Just kidding.
Thanks for that, Eric.
We have our normal co-host maybe coming up, Texas Toast.

(01:38):
We're going to start calling him Tardy Toast.
That's okay.
Busy dude.
We'll get him up here.
We also have TC again.
Awesome to have you.
We have Eric, Neil, Captain Trips, Pubby, and BFP.
So exciting stuff.
Thank you again to everybody who listens.
each and every day. We do this every weekday, 10 a.m. Eastern.

(02:00):
And today is Wednesday, September 17, 2025.
We are at Bitcoin block height number 915,117
with the Bitcoin price hovering just above $116,000,
which means you can still get rid of your cookbooks for 862 sets.

(02:20):
And I am not giving you financial advice,
but I would advise you to strongly consider that if you're still holding on to any of that dirty fiat.
All right, a couple of announcements.
Check out the Nest, please.
We do have sponsorship opportunities available for that conference.
I've been announcing every day, endlessly, we're having the Bitcoin Veterans' second annual summit

(02:46):
coming up November 10th and 11th in beautiful Nashville, Tennessee.
Day one will be the conference, and I think a lot of people are excited about Range Day on day two.
Get some practice on the range.
So that should be fun, and we'll keep it safe and should be good.

(03:07):
But if you're interested, go to BitcoinVeterans.org forward slash summit 2025, and yeah, get your tickets.
If you want to apply to be a speaker, you can do that there.
If you want to be a volunteer or maybe run a workshop, let's get hands on and help people
understand how all this stuff works with Bitcoin.

(03:29):
All right.
Let's see.
What else?
Yeah.
Getting a full crowd in here and do appreciate everybody coming in.
Wanted to first go around the horn and say good morning.
TC, you're right next to me here on my screen.
How's it going this morning, sir?
Yeah.
Good morning.

(03:50):
Just getting the coffee fired up.
It was fun chatting with you yesterday.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Thanks for coming up.
And again, guys, check out TC's app.
You can follow the time chain Cal handle here on X and get all the updates,

(04:10):
the main information as it comes out.
Follow TC as well.
And everybody else who always comes up here and talks.
Hey, tardy toast.
thanks for joining how's it going this morning what uh oh i had to had to do a little a little
worship this morning with one of my one of my kiddos so yeah busy guy you know some people

(04:33):
got to work around here bob all right you want to know this is my work no i'm just kidding yeah
no i got it it's it's all good man i i just got to give you some yeah a little bit of shade here
and there. Wade, hey, thanks for coming up. Good morning. How's it going?
Good morning, guys. Just pulling a couple of interesting headlines up for you guys

(04:53):
if you get time later in the show. Yeah, man, this is kind of
open hump day because I've been swamped and
it's a good thing, but don't have as much time
lately, it seems, for show prep. So TC bailed me out yesterday.
He didn't know it, but it kind of helped him
too, I hope. More downloads than ever. We'll say that every day, hopefully. Eric, good

(05:20):
morning. Do you have a proper mic or are you just going to give us a thumbs up and make
everybody think you're AI? No, I'm here. I don't have a proper mic, but good morning.
Well, it's okay. I know you're still trying to save those sats. So yeah, don't buy a mic.
You can just talk through the BB handle. It's all good. Neil, good morning. We missed you

(05:41):
yesterday welcome back yeah yeah no it's good to be back uh had a had a great conversation uh
yesterday with uh Daniel Prince and uh I don't know that podcast will be coming out I think in
a couple weeks me hitting but uh I don't know it's it's kind of interesting seeing how like the more
people you talk to how you're you refine the message and you hone it and it just uh I don't

(06:05):
You know, it's kind of a cool thing to see how this all unfolds.
It's a pretty fun journey.
Yeah, we always like to support the folks who come on here regularly.
So when that does come out or drops, please do throw that up in the nest or throw it in the comments.
We'd love to check it out.

(06:26):
Captain Trips, it's been a couple of days.
How are you?
Good morning, Bob.
Nice to be here.
Happy hump day.
Yes, sir.
Pubby.
I think it's total bullshit that TC has 58 minutes of the 60 yesterday,
and he got to go first today to say hello.

(06:46):
No, just kidding.
TC, great job as always.
Yeah, Daniel Prince is awesome,
and he was the first one that had really come on a YouTube show.
We once had a four-hour just live stream YouTube back in the day,
and I was reminded about how early things are.
someone's hosting a space today with a bunch of newbies trying to explain to
them what HODL meant and where it came from in,

(07:10):
in the old Twitter lore with just one typo.
So it's always good to take a step back and remember how much you didn't know
when you started here. But yeah.
Back to the basics. I love it. BFP. How are you today?
Good morning, Bob.
Yeah, I read Daniel Prince's book as one of the first Bitcoin books I read back in the day.

(07:35):
He wasn't even a full-time Bitcoiner when that first, I mean, he was in cryptocurrency, but he became a Bitcoin maxi after that.
But yeah, congrats on getting on his show.
Yeah, good stuff. We'll be excited to hear it.
And really today, guys, we can take this anywhere people want to go.

(08:01):
I have a few things that kind of crossed the wire in my mind.
First, though, before we jump into those topics, I did.
I was thinking like, man, there are so many, you know, things that are coming out that are seemingly positive news.
You know, despite obviously what happened last week.

(08:23):
I think if you're on these spaces, maybe you hear a little bit too much negativity here and there about the sides.
But as it relates to Bitcoin, and that's what we try to keep it to mostly on this show, is like, man, there's just a ton of adoption news, a ton of building going on.

(08:44):
Sure, there's some infighting, but there's so many positive things happening.
And one of the things that I really took away from yesterday with TC is the fact that so many people still do focus so much on price.
And sure, during my opening every morning, I do bring up the block height and the price, but that's really mainly to encourage you to stack sats.

(09:10):
But I have been thinking, like, are we desensitized from all this good news?
What do you guys think?
Like there's so many positive things going on and you just see adoption occurring and the current financial system falling on its face.
And so I'm just wondering, like, do you guys pay much attention to the news anymore?

(09:34):
Or is it really like we should just sit on these faces and talk philosophically and let Neil go through his book with us every day?
What do you guys think?
i could jump in real quick because when you hear long enough it was like every any little thing any
bit of news was oh my god this is it bitcoin's going to be a million tomorrow and it was at a

(09:56):
point i remember listening when they were having a chinese new year and everybody was hanging their
hat on the fact you guys don't understand this is like the biggest human migration in the world
and when all these chinese they get home they start telling their family about bitcoin just
wait until you see this pump that that happens and it's all the time and you know elon's buying
all this company's buying everyone waits it happens and it's like for every one of those

(10:21):
though guess what you get an ftx for every one of those you just get debates and you just get like
i say man you just got to beat it for the long term it's cool like to to dream on some of that
stuff but yeah you get desensitized to it you get desensitized to the price we used to be you know
high five each other if it went up a thousand dollars now you know it drops 10 15 goes up 10

(10:43):
15 like who cares anymore but welcome to the show yeah i could chime in on this uh i think that the
only sort of problematic thing is that last part which is the so it's going to make a crazy pump
happen right away. I really actually find that keeping up with what's going on in the world is

(11:08):
incredibly confirming as far as the Bitcoin thesis, because almost every day you see more
instances of governments around the world debasing their citizens' currency, restricting their
citizens freedom using financial rails as a as a weapon um i mean just i think it was yesterday

(11:33):
there was some news i i can't remember if it was thailand or vietnam but somewhere in southeast
asia where they were just shutting down millions of people's accounts because they hadn't
registered with the new digital id system it's it is wild when you put it together
what's the problem and how does Bitcoin solve that problem?

(11:56):
And then to see that exact dynamic repeat itself again and again and again.
And I'll just tell you over the last, I mean, over the last five and a half years since 2020,
hasn't it been just pronounced?
Hasn't it been just more obvious than ever?
And so, yeah, I think that's the purpose.
I think if you just keep up with what's going on in the world,

(12:18):
you see the problem growing and henceforth Bitcoin becoming more and more relevant.
All this, oh, so tomorrow it's going to go to the moon.
Put that aside, just as far as reinforcing your own conviction in what you are doing
and what your plan is and being able to sit tight amidst all this chaos and say,

(12:38):
well, at least I have my life raft.
Yeah, it's really good.
And I do think, like, you know, for the new people, I think gaining perspective on some of these news stories that you and I and a lot of other folks up here and in this space see so easily.
Because, like you said, you're kind of putting the pieces of the puzzle together.

(13:02):
But for the new people, it maybe gives them a new lens.
And so, you know, sometimes we ebb and flow on this space, like where we talk about news, obviously, but that gets a little boring.
And sometimes we get more philosophical.
And a lot of times we can bring those things together, which I really enjoy, because I do think it serves, as TC was saying, a really good purpose for those of us who are paying attention to this stuff.

(13:28):
But again, is a great way to maybe get other people who are newer thinking about some of these things in a way that maybe they haven't before.
And why we're so adamant about stacking Bitcoin and holding Bitcoin.
Neil, I see your hand, sir. Go ahead.

(13:49):
Yeah, just a few thoughts on price.
It's just like, so pulling like this goes back to like Aristotle and Aquinas, this idea that nothing goes into the intellect, into your mind that's not first through your senses.
Like we're embodied, you know, creatures or whatever.

(14:11):
So what Price is doing, like the accident of Price, it's like it's letting someone feel it.
It's letting someone experience it.
It's giving them a particular something to focus on to then abstract and think about what's going on with that that thing.
So it's just like, you know, prices, it's everything and it's nothing at the same time in the sense that, like, it's it really doesn't have anything to do with the principles.

(14:39):
Like it can go up 20 percent or down 50 percent today and it doesn't fucking matter at all.
It's just an accident. It goes up and down.
But at the same time, like that's the thing that people can touch.
It's like the tangent between their human experience, something that they already know and and and learning something new.

(15:00):
So we should never completely discount the importance of it because without price, without this fiat price, no one has a bridge to even reach out to try to even cognize what Bitcoin even is.
You know, like if you dissolve the price, you know, entirely, there's no way that you could onboard anybody.

(15:25):
There's no one. There's really no way you could even talk to people and get those ideas into their head.
So I think that that kind of like an interesting way of like you use price as like the on ramp use price as that particular thing that you know that they can relate to and that how like as tc was saying like it plays out all the time the same it because like human

(15:49):
being human nature is immutable and like this is just how humans interact and react to their
environment um so it's like when you understand the principles you understand what's going on
You can kind of see you can see where the puck is going, you know, even if it's, you know, bumpy up and down along the way, like that being able to to discern the order and see where things are going.

(16:16):
Like that's that's what makes human beings rational creatures.
And when you lean into that and you leverage that and you become the, you know, a powerful human being, you know, actualizing all your potential.
Like that's what Bitcoiners are doing. That's why Bitcoiners feel alive.
That's why Bitcoiners are becoming powerful things, like powerful beings in their communities.

(16:40):
And like the tides are turning. So I don't know. Those are just my thoughts.
Yeah, I like that.
And I think, you know, it gets me thinking you missed yesterday when I made one of my comments.
I mean, I loved your comments, Neil.
But one of the things besides price is some of these tools.
And not to make this, you know, a repeat of yesterday, but I do think you should check out timechaincalendar.com if you haven't.

(17:05):
Because I do think that that does materialize Bitcoin for a lot of people.
Especially, like, maybe not initially, right?
If you show people that app or the web app initially, they're going to be like, I don't know what the heck that is.
Like, that means absolutely nothing to me.
But as people are going on their journey, that dashboard, while it does show the exchange price,

(17:27):
it's also showing you a lot more that this is a live active network that can be monitored in a variety of ways.
and this dashboard is giving you just some insights as to how people can kind of materialize Bitcoin beyond just the price.
So, Neil, totally agree with your comments, but did want to throw that back out there.

(17:50):
And I think, you know, TC would admit there's other tools out there as well.
And I think people are building right now.
And I'm excited to see how, you know, this network and this asset that lives on the Internet kind of all by itself.
And, you know, we're interacting with it, but giving people good information so they can actually see it, understand it, and learn more about how to take advantage of it.

(18:20):
I think Wade's hand was first.
But before we go to Wade, did want to say good morning to Robert.
He's joined us. I did ask him if he had some time and do want to get to some topics around macro.
I know some people roll their eyes on that stuff, but there's a lot going on.
We got Moran or Mirren, however you say his last name, joining the FRB.

(18:40):
We got Fed rate cuts probably, it looks like today.
So I do want to get an update from him in a little bit, but we've got a couple of hands.
Let's go to Wade first.
Good morning, guys. I actually have a question for Robert.
I just need a second to frame the question.
This week, the GAO released a September report on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.

(19:04):
Inside the report, they document that the life cycle of the program costs will now exceed $2 trillion.
They cite contractor underperformance delays and supply chain issues as reasons for the cost overruns.
Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney are continuing to deliver aircraft and engines late.

(19:28):
One instance cited here in the report of the 110 aircraft that were delivered this year, all were late by an average of almost 240 days.
That's up from a delivery delay of 61 days going back to 2023.
So we're seeing that increased supply chain pressure and issues coming in here.

(19:49):
I just wanted to ask that you want to use that context to frame the question.
Is it now that the program is effectively reporting a two trillion dollar cost overrun, which is equal to seven percent of the current national debt?
That the all of the GAO's assumptions regarding these cost overruns are based upon the Fed and the CBO target of a two percent inflation rate.

(20:16):
And just wondering what Info's thoughts are regarding a 50 percent miss.
You know, you know, if we've got a if we've got an admitted three percent inflation here by the government.
I mean, how are we supposed to review?
You know, what's his what's his thoughts regarding?
Hey, we have a reported 50 percent inflation over target here.

(20:39):
But yet we're basing all of our assumptions and all of our CBO and GAO reports on a 2% inflation target.
Yeah, PCE, CPI, PPI, everything's closer to 3% than it is to 2%.
And, yeah, look, I think that the one thing that they have going for them is that when it comes to the deficit is that they will be trying to reduce interest expense.

(21:08):
The problem is that it's going to come at the expense of weaker currency, both in purchasing power and depending on what other countries do.
I mean, this move in the dollar yesterday, I think, is significant.
Depending on what other countries do, possibly even a weaker dollar relative to other currencies.
I think that they've abandoned any hope of fiscal responsibility.

(21:32):
I think Dozer's dead and in the ground.
I think that when it comes to defense specifically, if I had to guess, they're going to just say, okay, well, now the U.S. government is a 10% equity owner in whatever, Lockheed Martin.
And Howard Lutnick actually talked about that. I think it was before the election.

(21:57):
I think he was on Pomp's show and he and he and he talked about taking equity stakes and some of the defense contractors.
So my guess is that it looks probably something more akin to that than than than anything.
But the you know, the overall direction is the same thing with Social Security.

(22:19):
It's the same thing with Medicare, Medicaid. Like until until there's consequences, I don't think that the that either politicians from any party are going to step up and be responsible.
I mean, Medicare, for example, has outpaced GDP and therefore tax revenue, which have grown roughly in line over the past 75 years, outpaced them by like 600 percent going back to the early 70s.

(22:48):
So these programs like it's just up and to the right. And they're in terms of the degree to which they're outpacing GDP to the degree they're outpacing tax revenue.
And so, yeah, I think that until something, until we get to a point where they have to, they're not going to.
They're not going to be proactive.

(23:09):
And that's kind of a scary thought.
I mean, this is one of the downsides of liberal democracy when you compare it to something like a country like China, for example, where they can look 100 years into the future.
We're constantly looking two years in the future, right?
This bullshit kind of American political cycle, election cycle, where that's all they're worried about is the next two years.

(23:34):
Just raise enough money to get reelected a year or two later and then do it all over again and again and again and again.
No one is looking ahead.
Time preference parallel there.
No one is looking ahead.
So I think that it just is going to get worse and worse.
It'll be defense.
It'll be Medicare, Medicaid.
It'll be Social Security. It'll just get worse and worse and worse until eventually something forces them. Is that something the bond market? Is that something the people, right, politically? I think that, look, like the boomers are clearly dying off. I think it's like 8,000 boomers are dying each day or something crazy.

(24:14):
So we know like over the next 10 years, 15 years, the youth are of a very different opinion about some of these entitlement programs and just kind of broadly speaking, have a different view on the role of the government and how the government should function, who it should serve.

(24:34):
So I think that we are going to see, not with defense, I mean, that's kind of a separate thing, but at least with the other entitlement programs with Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, I think that, you know, the political landscape today is going to be a lot different from the political landscape 10 years from now.
Today, I don't see any chance of responsible cuts to defense, Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security.

(25:03):
Really, I think it's clear that the big item that they're going after is interest.
And look, it'll work. They can do it.
You know, I know a lot of people don't want them to be able to do it.
They want it to all blow up, but they have a lot of levers and they'll be able to get the interest expense down.

(25:24):
Look, like there's always a release valve with these things.
They could take rates to zero, issue all of the debt in one month bills.
And yeah, you just, you know, over time, as some of that debt gets rolled and refinanced at the lower rates, you have reduced interest expense.
I understand that people don't want that reality or they don't want the Fed to be able to do that or the government or whatever, but they can.

(25:52):
It is what it is.
They always have a lever.
It'll come at the expense of higher inflation.
It'll come at the expense of a neutered Fed and a loss of Fed independence, which, again, is not exactly bullish for the dollar relative to other currencies.
So they can do it.
They can do it. And I think that that's I think they've made it clear that that is I mean, Myron just made up this third mandate.

(26:18):
Right. This actually is not new news. This goes all the way back to like two weeks ago, whenever his confirmation hearing was in his opening speech, he mentioned this third mandate that doesn't exist for moderate.
I forget the exact wording is like moderate long term interest rates, I think.
And so, yeah, look, like the overall direction is clear.

(26:41):
It'll come at the look, we're talking about Fed cuts with inflation, no matter how you measure it, basically at three percent with equities at all time highs, with gold at all time highs, with housing at all time highs.
Like, you know, we're we have to realize kind of where we are.
And by the way, the economy is fine.
The economy is fine.
Whether you look at real GDP, printed 3.3% annual rate, Q2, and after the retail sales data yesterday, the FedNow estimate is well above three.

(27:12):
I think it's like three and a half.
The economy is fine.
So it's not even like the economy is falling apart and they need rate cuts.
My question would be, how is the economy falling apart and equities are at all-time highs?
But that's a separate issue.
But, yeah, they're going to be they're cutting because of the interest expense.

(27:33):
They're cutting because of fiscal dominance.
They're cutting because I think they are smart enough to understand that, yeah, they might be able to hold off this fiscal dominance Trump majority sort of thing for a month or two.
But like the overall direction, once you take a couple steps back, the overall direction is Trump will have a majority.

(27:55):
It's just a matter of time.
So you can try to, you know, hem and haw and make a big fuss about it.
But like the direction that this is going once you zoom out is clear and it'll come at the expense of the dollar in purchasing power terms for U.S. consumers.
You'll also come at the expense likely of the dollar relative to other currencies, unless you see, you know, other countries, especially like Europe and Japan, starting to go down that same road.

(28:27):
And, you know, higher real scarce asset prices, whether that's housing or gold or Bitcoin.
How does the government seizing an interest in Intel, Lockheed Martin, or Pratt & Whitney actually get us more ships, more engines, or more aircraft, though?
There's historical examples in 1930s Germany where the German Luftwaffe will walk into Junker's aircraft and seize the plant.

(28:53):
How much did that really help them out?
And look at the results of that.
It turns them into a vampire economy type scenario.
And I don't understand how that helps them correct the days late on delivery issues, considering all the bottlenecks.
Yeah, I just think that from a financial standpoint, we're much more likely to see them say, okay, you know, 50% cost overrun.

(29:18):
All right, well, then we'll be taking an equity stake rather than, and therefore we're going to be forced, we're going to force the taxpayers to, you know, we're going to run a larger deficit.
We're going to force the taxpayers to hold it, I think.
And look, like to some degree, nationalizing Intel, nationalizing Lockheed or whoever,

(29:40):
like at the end of the day, our major adversary being China,
it is clear that America cannot really compete with China,
with the structure of their economy, with the way that they subsidize industry
and run this kind of business model on a national scale,

(30:01):
on a sovereign scale of just overcapacity, market share at any cost,
just gain market share, it doesn't matter about profit,
where they manipulate their currency and keep it severely undervalued.
How does America, in the libertarian, free market sort of worldview,

(30:23):
How else does America, from a national security perspective, compete with that?
You know, they can't.
At the end of the day, like, I think it's about time that our policymakers finally woke up to the fact that, like, China has been eating our lunch for decades.
We are now at a place where we just lost a proxy war to a country with one twelfth of our GDP because we can't make anything anymore.

(30:47):
In fact, we rely on China or maybe adversary, competitor, whatever you want to call them.
We rely on them for a lot of the critical electronic components to go into the weapons that we're going to need to defend our people against China.
So, you know, and then, you know, you open the book of issues with currencies, right, with the dollar you won.

(31:09):
There's a number of issues where and I am not I'm not a socialist.
I don wish for this but at the end of the day we live in the world that we do We can want it to be different We can want it to be some philosophical utopia that we read about in a book
But it's not.

(31:29):
You know what I mean?
And so I think I think we got to play the hand we're dealt, which is, you know, how else do you how from a national security perspective?
How else do you protect yourself against a country like China without stooping to their level, without, you know, use it running the same playbook, generally speaking, that they do?

(31:52):
And look, like, go down the list.
I have done this and it didn't radicalize me, but it but it changed my opinion.
I was very much like that stereotypical hardcore libertarian, George Gammon, free market, solve everything kind of person.
I was very much that sort of way from 2018, really, all the way up until a year or two ago.
But then I started to learn, you know, dive into the macro hole that I did.

(32:18):
And look, like you go down the list, every single country that had at least a modern kind of post-World War II history that has done well.
Take Japan, for example.
Japan Incorporated.
They were so ascendant that there were worries from U.S. policymakers, serious people in the U.S., that Japan would overtake America.

(32:38):
Well, if you look at their economic structure during that time, they had fiscal policy, trade policy, and monetary policy was all one thing, right?
And when you look at GDP, when you look at even for the average Japanese worker, right, like overall, the picture was better than after we went liberalized and set them free and showed them free market capitalism and laissez-faire and this neoliberal bullshit.

(33:08):
You know, that is what killed them.
It was not, you know, from from 55 up through 80s where they were where they had much more of this kind of mixed economy.
It was better for the average Japanese worker. It was better for Japan overall.
And in fact, they were so ascendant. They were so powerful that there were concerns that they were going to overtake America.

(33:31):
Remember, after World War Two, America was like the only game in town.
Europe was destroyed. They were nowhere near what we are today.
Even Japan was destroyed to some degree. It took them a while to rebuild. And there were concerns that they were coming out of it so fast, so hard that they were going to overtake America.
And then you look at China as well. I mean, China was if you when you look at China, the growth of China from, say, the 90s up through now, it is like mind blowing.

(34:01):
It is almost unbelievable how much how fast they grew, how much wealth and prosperity was created for them.
And look, it came at the expense of the average middle class American. I'm not, you know, I'm the first person to talk about the China shock being a major turning point for the average American.
But from a, you know, we're America. We got it. We shouldn't be worrying about Chinese wealth.

(34:26):
We shouldn't worry about the middle class of Malaysia or Indonesia.
We should be worried about our middle class. We should be worried about our national security imperatives and interests.
And I think that that is kind of the direction that the world is moving, where everyone is, you know, nationalism.
One place leads to nationalism everywhere. And I think it's about time that America woke up to that.

(34:47):
yeah it gets me thinking man we're so asleep at the wheel i mean there's so many issues i like the
way you laid all that out but man it's it's crazy you know we talked at the top of the show um and
i think it was tc and pubby were kind of saying it that you know this the reason we keep up on
this news and this system is because it's it gives you that frame of reference for why bitcoin

(35:15):
We do have some hands.
Wanted to get to them.
I know BFP was first, but we're on this maybe kind of line of thinking.
And BFP, if it's on a different topic, we'll get to you.
Otherwise, you can go.
If not, Pubby, I think your question was related.
Yeah, mine was way back to Neil, so go ahead.

(35:37):
It was the first topic.
The first topic.
Yeah, hold that thought.
We'll circle back.
Go ahead, Bobby.
Yeah, I'll try to think of quick.
And this is a term that came up with entitlements and the number of boomers.
And it's such a bad one of the things I look forward to.
And it's such a loaded word, right?
The connotation of weaponization of telling everyone you have an entitlement, like you're entitled to something, not that you've paid into it for your entire life.

(36:07):
And I just want to focus people on the division that is coming as these boomers do leave.
and they're trying to get all this money back is you're entitled to this.
Now, God forbid, you know, you put in $200,000 over the course of your career into Social Security,
but that's where they're going to have to come and get the properties.
We'll probably, once they're sold, they're going to go to pay off the loans of many of the kids that are now the next generation.

(36:36):
And we make fun of the boomers.
Yeah, well, they got their house for seven raspberries in 1976.
At the time, they're just taking advantage of what was there for them to do.
Okay, there was really no 401K.
Some had a pension.
But what I'm saying is just keep an eye out as you watch us go forward because at the end of the day, you will own nothing, right, and be happy.

(37:00):
And that's part of the owning nothing is they're going to remove everything.
They're going to remove – you're going to have – oh, and again, the division.
Oh, you're so lucky.
Oh, you got sub 3% on your mortgage.
Oh, your mortgage is paid off.
Well, you can afford to pay more then.
So unrealized gains on everything and removal of these entitlements that you actually earned.

(37:23):
You're not entitled.
You earned them.
That's what's coming down.
So, yeah, thanks for letting me rant on that one a little.
Yeah, no, it's good perspective.
Robert, any other comments on that?
You know, I am curious related to, you know, your thoughts.
Obviously, like a lot of people like I roll with the Fed decreasing rates,

(37:48):
but I think you brought up some good points.
You know, to some people, the economy is fine.
To some corporations, I mean, you look at, I don't know if you even want to call it a melt up,
but just this continual appreciation of assets.
It's insane.
And the wealth gap is getting wider.

(38:10):
We have people losing jobs.
I know a lot of people who write code for a living and are now unemployed.
And so I wonder, like, you know, there's this bifurcation of good economy, bad economy.
and my question to you is like where do you think this this goes where does it land i mean we have

(38:31):
the international pressures we have supply chains that have been farmed out to foreign countries
and that impacts our national defense among other things um and and i mean there's just so many
things that we can run down and so i'm just curious like where does this where does this go
maybe short term and long term like with rates and i'm not even talking about price i'm just saying

(38:54):
Like it looks like all assets are going to just blow out to the upside and the poor people are going to get poorer and there's going to be less people with jobs.
Like how does this get fixed?
It gets worse.
I think.
I think it gets worse.
The K-shaped economy gets more K-shaped and it gets worse.

(39:14):
Like, unfortunately, it's not what I want, but objectively that appears to be the direction things are headed in.
housing. Everyone keeps saying this. I've been hearing this for, I don't know, three and a half
years. Oh, housing can't possibly, you know, the average sales price can't possibly go up. People
can't afford housing. And it's like, well, you can't, I can't, but private equity can,

(39:38):
but foreigners can, but right. To balance the current account deficit, they have to buy something,
to price insensitive buyers, the top 1% can, right?
The top 10% certainly can.
The top 10%, last time I did the math, and it's probably way worse now.
This was a couple of years ago.
But last time I did the math, the top 1% alone could afford to buy the single, single family

(40:04):
home market for like 12 years straight at a 50% premium to where current prices are today.
And once you include the top 10%, it's like 50 years.
So yeah, look, like the wealth inequality, I understand people want it to get, they think
it can't possibly get worse than this, but it can always get worse.

(40:25):
Housing can always get more unaffordable.
The equity market can get even more overvalued.
I'm not buying S&P or NASDAQ here, right?
If you want to buy at a gazillion price to earnings ratio, then fine.
And, you know, it can go up.
If the dollar is melting, if the denominator is failing, which is what we are seeing, then, yeah, sure, equities in dollar terms can go higher.

(40:51):
But the dollar, just on a DXY basis, has lost 11 or 12 percent of its value year to date.
So look at the S&P in euros, right?
It's a much different story, or the Swiss franc.
Your currency is melting.
Your currency, whether it be, you know, homes denominated in dollars or equities denominated in dollars or gold or Bitcoin denominated in dollars.

(41:20):
If the denominator is losing value, which it has been, the denominator is failing.
You are going to get higher equity prices.
You're going to get higher home prices.
You're going to get higher Bitcoin, higher gold.
And I think that that's what we're saying.
I'll remind people just one more time.
When you look at gold denominated in dollars, it is ripping higher.

(41:42):
Right now, 37.19 is the per ounce price for gold in dollars.
But remember, it's basically you're looking at an FX cross.
You're looking at gold slash dollars.
We'll invert the gold chart that you're looking at.
And that is gold, excuse me, dollars denominated in gold.
And that's what's happening to your currency in real purchasing power terms.

(42:07):
It's more pronounced in gold than it is, say, housing.
But that's what's happening.
And look, like the last time that we went through that we were in an era like this was really the 1960s with, you know, political assassinations, cultural divides, all these sorts of things.
And if you look at how assets perform during that time period, obviously Bitcoin was not around.

(42:32):
equities went basically sideways from 65 to 80.
So for 15 years, the dollar price of the S&P 500 basically went nowhere.
In gold terms, the S&P 500 priced in gold, the equity market lost like 80, 85% of its value.
You obviously had the Nixon shock in 1971 with the removal from the gold standard.

(42:56):
But yeah, look, housing went up.
The equity market went nowhere.
and gold absolutely ripped faces, like absolutely ripped.
I think it was like 800% just in the best five-year period within there.
I think overall it was even larger.
I want to say it was like a 12X, so 1100%, 11,000%.

(43:21):
So yeah, I think that that's kind of a lot of people drawing parallels
to political assassinations and the Charlie Kirk stuff.
I would just point out last time we had populism was 65 to 82.
The last time we had cultural divides as bad as they are today, you had equities go nowhere.
You had bonds get crushed, by the way.

(43:43):
The 10-year yield was basically up and to the right that entire era.
So bonds, you know, did horribly.
The equity market in dollar terms went sideways.
In gold terms, declined by 80%.
It was actually over 80%.
And gold just ripped faces.
So I think that, you know, if you believe that is, you know, if you believe that we are in that kind of era, that is the closest analog to really look at.

(44:10):
And that'll be a reflection of probably how we how things go here, which is, you know, absent the baby boom, of course, which I don't think we're going to get.
You'll have, you know, you'll have you'll have dollar denominated assets go up.
But once you look at it addressing the denominator issues, once you start denominating things in gold terms or Bitcoin terms, I think the picture is going to look a lot different.

(44:39):
But wealth inequality can always get worse.
And how it eventually settles out, right?
Do we see a Zoomer revolt where they elect the new president of the United States on Discord like they did in Nepal?
I don't know.
Maybe. Do we see Marie Antoinette-like scenes in Manhattan and D.C. and San Francisco and L.A.?
Maybe. Do we see a peaceful, you know, a political revolution of sorts?

(45:04):
Maybe. I don't think so, unfortunately.
But yeah, like it can get worse before it gets better, and I think it will get worse before it gets better.
Yeah, that denominator question is, I guess, what I have, which is, and we'll get to Captain Tripp's here in a second.
But that denominator question really, I think, is what rings home.

(45:27):
Too many people are still totally not paying attention and denominating everything in dollars.
And when you see assets ripping like they are continuously, even at P.E. ratios that are, I think, historically.
A bazillion.
Yeah, I mean, it's just like it gets ridiculous after a while.

(45:49):
And when does Wall Street start to say, hey, this is just funny money, like what we're measuring in no longer makes sense.
And I do think like just to be fair that the Black Rocks of the world, although we, you know, most of us don't like them and think they're evil, which they've proven to be, I think, in certain terms.

(46:10):
They they have been, I think, starting to push this narrative and they're not wrong.
Captain Trips, go ahead, sir.
Thanks, Bob. Great points by Robert. I thank you for being here. I just wanted to touch on the 1970s. I don't know if it was Ray Dalio or someone along those lines, but that equities and bonds do not do well in an inflationary environment.

(46:33):
So we think money printer go burr. Okay, if you buy S&P 500 with your 401k, you're chilling. Actually, no, right. As Robert said, the most comparable scenario is the 70s. 1971, August 15th, Brentwood's agreement suspended convertibility to gold.
In that following nine years so the 1970s decade the S 500 went up about 50 nominally not adjusted for inflation nominally while gold went from its statutory 35 an ounce and it peaked at about an ounce So that what a 20 X from peak to drop to peak and bonds didn do well either

(47:11):
So it's, it's, it's almost this illusion like commodities did well in the seventies and gold that maybe that's, you know, it's Bitcoin gold.
It's, it's, it's not, it's not doing the same thing that's worked since 1980.
it's a reversion to a different paradigm or the cycle is swinging back to that side of it.
And that corporate profits and corporate performances aren't necessarily good when

(47:34):
they're just printing money hand over fist. Well, yeah, I will point out though that personal income
as a share of M2 money supply actually went up from, I think it was the mid-70s through the 90s.
And you had corporate profits as a share of GDP actually go down. So, yeah, it's not good for corporations. It's not good for now. Look, we're in a different era. You know, it's not we shouldn't try and force that that comparison with every single thing.

(48:05):
But I think that there are a number of striking similarities. And I think, you know, 1971 sort of currency, major monumental currency change is part of it. Like, I think that I still think that there's a pretty decent chance of a Mar-a-Lago court or some sort of currency issue that that ends up getting addressed in the next decade.

(48:30):
in the next decade. Robert, and I agree. I think if you caveat it with the next 10 years,
I agree. But I mean, isn't that just an admission of the catastrophic failure of the currency?
And can't they model this out and see that this is coming? I mean, I think this already did though.
Right. And so, but then this is the whole question of Fed independence, right? They have the models,

(48:57):
They have the data. They have the details. They know where this is going.
And I wonder, like, if you have any thoughts, like you mentioned this election cycle.
But I do think it's interesting that if the Fed does remain independent, they, you know, the Fed chair gets gets appointed for.

(49:20):
I think it's a 10 plus year term and then can hang on to a FRB seat for longer if needed.
Just curious to maybe hear your speculative thoughts on any of that related to this like bigger context,
which is that the currency is failing. We're seeing it.

(49:44):
Maybe for some people it's in slow motion.
And I think for Bitcoiners, we're acutely aware of what's going on based on the news cycle and the performance of all these assets.
Yeah, I mean, you had a guy who wrote an entire paper on how to address kind of the how to solve for Triffin's dilemma.
He wrote an entire paper on it in November 24.

(50:08):
He's now on the Fed.
Like, this is crazy times.
You know what I mean?
We are living through a revolutionary era.
And also, it's not just Myron.
It's not just the kind of Myron camp of people.
It's even people like David Malpass, who was the former World Bank governor.

(50:31):
There is a lot of talk about structural, massive reforms at the Fed to reshape the Fed in a way that helps the average Main Street small business versus a gazillion market cap multinational bank.

(50:54):
Right. There is a lot of push for a massive, meaningful reform of the Fed.
Now, is it going to solve all of our problems? I don't think so.
But like we are living through that kind of classical fourth turning sort of environment where institutions are are reshaped and negative real rates.

(51:14):
And, you know, basically, you know, absorbing the Fed under the Treasury into the Treasury Department like it was back in World War Two.
So that's just one of the many, many ways that we'll probably see that play out.
I think that also you'll see, you know, over the next decade or so, I think you'll see some of that, you know, wait, why is the Fed need a reverse repo?

(51:39):
You know, why is there no reverse repo facility, but for Main Street, you know, Main Street small businesses, right?
Like an effort to pretend like they're trying to help.
And look, maybe their intentions are good.
Maybe they really are going to try to help, you know, the average American, the average small business.

(51:59):
But, yeah, the growing talk within serious, the serious camps within kind of Wall Street, you know, like David Malpass, for example, that there is a growing amount of discontent with the current institution.
It's not coming just from populist, nationalist, you know, MAGA sort of people.

(52:20):
It's starting to kind of even become more broad than that.
yeah crazy stuff uh man it's uh as you can see it's very complicated and i think that um
there's no real apparent answers i don't think anybody can really fix it at this point you have

(52:44):
lots of pressures um i don't know man i i see this as um i don't i don't want to say the world
is caving in. But I mean, you can truly see where this system just at some point just gives away and
no longer really works. And it's why I think most people will come to the conclusion that, well,

(53:05):
we just, you know, we can't fix this problem. And so we're just going to go to a UBI system
where people that we couldn't help through systemic changes get support.
And so I wonder if you have any thoughts on that
or anybody else want to take this any other direction here before we begin.

(53:28):
I think eventually, yeah, sorry, there's a delay maybe on my end.
But yeah, no, I think eventually AI, robotics,
I think that's coming at some point, UBI kind of mass unemployment.
I mean, we already have youth unemployment at 10%.
That's how revolutions start.
So, you know, it's already, we're already seeing signs of it.
I think it takes longer than people think to fully play out.

(53:51):
But yeah, I do think that unfortunately that is kind of the general direction things are going.
Yeah.
And you can see how this would be delivered through a central bank digital currency or maybe just a private CBDC.
that's where they try to market it, that this isn't what they're doing.

(54:17):
Tal, thanks for joining us, sir.
Always happy to have you.
See your hand.
Good morning.
Go ahead.
Hey, good morning.
No, I just want to echo what Robert said earlier in regards to real estate
and prices going up.
Maybe you can't buy it, but there's a lot of buyers still out there,
And I do believe from a personal anecdotal experience, I believe that real estate, particularly your primary residence, I think it's a very valuable asset.

(54:52):
It's a hard asset.
And I think one of the best assets will always be in demand because people always need a place to live.
And everybody is striving to say, hey, this is my home.
This is my home.
I know there's been a lot of talk about, oh, well, people moving to renting because it's more convenient, et cetera.

(55:14):
They don't have to worry about property taxes, maintenance, and all those other things.
But I still do believe people are still pursuing real estate in their house.
And that's why prices will continue to climb.
I'm just going to give a quick example.
Well, in my neighborhood, it was just really recently where it was just a plot of land.

(55:39):
It wasn't even a house.
It was just a plot of land that was in a pretty, what do you call it, pretty nice area.
And it was about only 10,000 square feet.
That's it, 10,000 square feet.
And it sold for a million dollars.
In two weeks after listing, it wasn't on the market that long.

(55:59):
It was just like, hey, you know, here's a plot of land that you want to build a house on here in this neighborhood.
Yeah, it was sold for a million dollars just like that.
So I do believe real estate will be something that will continue to climb, especially in places that are just pretty attractive, like a decent neighborhood.

(56:21):
I'm not talking about anything that's like, OK, super nice neighborhood or anything like that.
But a decent neighborhood, people will be buying.
And so, yeah, I just want to say that.
Yeah, housing is one of those places people do store their money.
And I do think people still not just want it from an asset or wealth protection.

(56:52):
It's not just a wealth protection mechanism.
It's also for a lot of people status, right?
People want to show off.
It's like the flashy cars.
So people have different drivers.
And I do think people are beginning to feel rich again, which, again, I think Robert and the rest of us can laugh at because the denominator is what's messed up.

(57:16):
And so I'll keep driving at that.
I'm curious to see the tools that come out where it really helps people see.
I mean, I think simply Robert's suggestion to measure all these things with gold as the denominator or Bitcoin as the denominator is definitely a pertinent approach.

(57:37):
But when do the masses begin to see it?
That's the big question.
And I think we'll be here talking about this for a long time still.
not sure if it happens fast
all at once or it's a gradual thing but
we've heard it said this is a gradually and then

(58:00):
all at once type of situation. Did want to go around
the horn and see if there are any final thoughts from
everybody today as we kind of close this one out. Thanks
for hanging out with us everybody on this hump day. It's
A little lighter, fun, and good to hear from a variety of speakers, including Robert, who, if you guys haven't checked out his YouTube, if you want more information, if you'd like to soak up all this macro stuff, he's got a great channel and always do appreciate his insights and expertise.

(58:36):
But let's go around.
Wade, I know we didn't get to all your comments.
I think BFP had to jump, a couple others.
but anything that you wanted to say kind of as parting words here for this
morning?
No, actually we got to all the defense production stuff really that I wanted to
talk about.
I do have serious concerns about the formulas that the government is using to

(59:01):
calculate ongoing and future expenses due to inflation.
And I really appreciate Robert for his thoughts and input on the matter.
Yeah. I mean, it, it just,
it harkens back to this idea of manipulation, right?
Like everything's manipulated.
And so if they can't fix the money,

(59:21):
then they can fix the way things are measured.
And, you know, a lot of this stuff is disseminated through the news
and Wall Street and those things.
And so, you know, I'll bring it back to what we've been saying over,
especially the last week.
But, you know, we're truth seekers here.
Hopefully we're giving you guys good information,
sometimes a little biased.
But really, we're looking through a lens, as we've been talking about, of Bitcoin.

(59:46):
And hopefully, we get you thinking.
We give you some tools to build confidence and conviction in the asset that we think protects you from all of these bad and nasty things that are going on in the world.
But also gives you tools to help others see the light.

(01:00:06):
And so, I do appreciate everybody coming on.
Anybody else?
Neil, Captain Trips, Robert, Tao?
Anybody?
Yeah, go ahead, Neil.
Neil.
Neil has no mic.

(01:00:27):
Maybe we can get him back on here in a second.
You want to try it again, Neil?
I think he's dropping.
All right.
Well, we're going to end it there, guys.
This has been fun.
It's always fun, too, seeing the, I guess, the expertise,
the abilities of everybody that is in these spaces,

(01:00:48):
especially when I don't have much planned.
I have some rough topics to go off of, some news, obviously.
But in the busier times, it is sometimes difficult to do these spaces every day.
Although, you know, don't feel sorry for me.
I do like it as much as you do, I think.
uh we're gonna get neil back up here give him one last shot at it he dropped bringing him back up

(01:01:10):
hopefully maybe eric can help me with that too there you got me you got me yeah go ahead okay
yeah i was just gonna say i i enjoy uh listening to everyone throwing their their two stats because
like uh reminds me of this like the idea like consilience or the convergence of evidence like
no matter how you're approaching reality what like everything's pointing in the same direction i mean

(01:01:33):
And that should give you, I don't know, comfort in the fact that we're on the right track.
And we're all striving for truth.
And I think we're well on our way.
Yeah, thanks for that.
Good way to close it up, guys.
Again, we'll do this tomorrow, 10 a.m. Eastern.
Everybody's welcome.
Civilians are welcome.
Military veterans are welcome.

(01:01:54):
Thank you guys for joining us.
And you know what?
I want you to have the best Wednesday ever because guess what, guys?
It's the only one you got.
And I can promise you you'll do that as long as you promise me one thing, that you don't shitcoin.
It's like putting a .223 shell in a .30-06 rifle.

(01:02:17):
And by the way, don't do that. You'll kill yourself.
We call them we cork.