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October 2, 2025 • 57 mins
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Episode Transcript

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(00:00):
Thank you.

(00:30):
I guess that's me.
Good morning.
Guys, I think we might have one of those space glitches where people can't join.
I actually was testing this out on another account, and, yeah, seems like we are stuck.

(00:54):
So I'm going to make an executive decision to close down the space and restart another one.
So, Producer Eric, would you mind ending the space?
And then we will kick up another one and get everybody back on stage.
Then we'll do the intro, and we will kick around why fiat sucks.

(01:14):
Just kidding.
But we will talk about a bunch of different stuff.
So, guys, give it a second and look for the Bitcoin Veterans handle to reboot the space.
Eric, with that, shut her down and bring up a new one.
I'll rename it.
You don't even have to name it.
Just say reboot, maybe, and we'll go from there.
All right.
See you guys all in a second.
Thanks.
That is really a fun way to start the morning.

(01:38):
Love the intro music the first time, but thanks, everybody, for joining us.
Technical difficulties on a Friday.
and appreciate everybody who listens in and who's so resilient and knows how to work this app and switch gears.
Hopefully, this one seems to be working much better.
Sometimes that happens.
So we'll roll with it and, yeah, hopefully get on with the show.

(02:02):
But welcome, welcome.
Welcome to Bitcoin Veteran Spaces number 268 where we talk about Bitcoin and other stuff.
My name is Bob Van Kirk.
I'll be your host this morning, joined once again by Texas Toast.
Looks like we've got a panel up here of familiar faces and friends.

(02:25):
And thank you, Producer Eric, for getting this new show, Space Rebooted.
All right.
Let's take a look at the stats today.
Thank God it's Friday, September 19th, 2025.
We are Bitcoin block height number 915,414 with the Bitcoin price sitting just around $116,350,

(02:53):
which means you can still pick up 859 sats for each U.S. dollar.
And yeah, good stuff.
We have a couple of announcements.
Sorry, guys, just trying to get things rearranged here on my plethora of screens.
In the old nest, I did have, and we'll try to get it up there, the announcement about Bitcoin Veterans having our second annual summit on November 10th and 11th in Nashville, Tennessee.

(03:25):
Get your tickets.
Sign up today at BitcoinVeterans.org forward slash summit 2025.
And we also have the sponsors on that page, sponsorship opportunities.
So if you're interested in sponsoring, would love to have you participate in that as well.

(03:45):
All right.
Maybe just some other housekeeping.
Guys, we'd love to have new speakers up.
Obviously, no shit coining up here, but would love to have you.
If you would like to come up on stage, please do hit that microphone in the bottom left,
and we will get you up here.
Today is kind of a free-for-all.
We can talk about really any topic you want to.

(04:06):
Use that purple pill.
It'll be a pill in a second when someone throws a comment in there.
So if you do have a comment or question because you can't talk, you're listening to us at
work, or you're just trying to concentrate on something else, throw a comment down there.
With that, I want to say good morning to Texas Toast First.

(04:27):
Thanks for co-hosting, as always, sir.
How's it going, and what are you excited about today?
I'm excited to get these cats out of my garage, dude.
It smells like.
piss and I'm over it. Nice. Producer Eric, would you like to say good morning?

(04:48):
Good morning, Bob. How are you? Good, great, and wonderful as always. Thanks for the help.
Neil, how's it going today, sir? It's been doing real well. I've been thinking about
athleticism as this like you know the union of power and range of motion and like when compared

(05:09):
to fiat and uh how we move through our economic reality it's like uh the the thing that came to
my mind is kind of like you know playing with get buying bitcoin becoming a bitcoiner is kind of
like becoming like an NFL blitz meets Madden type of a thing.
Like people in fiat world are just playing with this and these rules, control, constricted,

(05:37):
that range of motion is very limited and it's not very, fiat's just not a very powerful
monetary object.
And you flip both of those, not only the potency of the object, but also full freedom and range
of motion.
And like, that's just another way of kind of conceptualizing why Bitcoin changes people's lives.

(05:58):
Nice. Yeah, maybe we can hop into that a little bit more.
And producer Eric, can you help me or Texas Sosa? Can you help me with BFP?
Maybe he's already up here, but I cannot add him to the stage.
So maybe one of you guys can help me out with that.
Pubby, good morning. Thanks for leaving that other space that I think you were in.
Is this one just more interesting? What's going on today, man?
wow come on man you know my loyalties lie it's always with the veterans let's go man yeah hey

(06:24):
i was trying to figure out yeah so when you have a summit okay there's obviously a step up from a
meetup but maybe less than a conference but does the summit is that because you got we got stuff
outdoors you got a range you get to squeeze off a few rounds either way man i gotta check my
calendar looking forward to it happy friday yeah thanks for that and i do think you're right um

(06:45):
But, you know, I think we've seen the progression of conferences and they've just become big, I would guess, I guess I would say other cryptos.
And I would also characterize them as a lot of paper Bitcoin.
So I think having a summit is a lot better.

(07:06):
And yes, the range will be fun and safe, by the way.
BFP, good morning.
Good morning.
You're open.
oh you're breaking up it's matrix birds friday for bfp we'll get them back uh keep walking that
dog find a better place in the neighborhood where your connection is more stable uh let's see uh

(07:32):
yeah once again guys if you'd like to come up please do hit that microphone and uh would love
to have you uh we'll kick around some topics today but maybe we can hop into it um so neil
Well, I do think that this is an interesting idea.
Do you want to kind of lay it out again?
So you're talking about physical ability and range of motion and trying to also tie that into.

(07:57):
And, guys, this was not planned.
So I'm putting Neil on the spot a little bit from his what he was thinking about this morning.
But, yeah, I guess just kind of go into it, Neil, and maybe we can kick this topic around a little bit.
Maybe it goes somewhere. Maybe it will shift. But I do. Yeah, I like I think it's an intriguing thought.

(08:20):
So go ahead. Yeah, I mean, I just like we all can relate to sports and this idea of athleticism.
And you're like, well, what are they doing on the field? Like what makes an athlete?
And like any athletic feat is, you know, it's motion. It's moving with with power.
and uh you know like you look at the gymnast it's not like you know it's not like the human body

(08:44):
can't do the splits and there's some superhuman you know ability that lets them do the splits
and do all these crazy flips and things it's like that's just that that's every human body can do
that I mean unless you're like broken or something like that but you know it's training to get that
range of motion and to put power, put strength, you know, through that full range. And like,

(09:07):
that really just kind of like, for me, was a good way of understanding how we're moving through
economic reality to and a way of conceptualizing why Bitcoin is so powerful. It's like, you know,
the monetary object itself, like all of its attributes, you know, it's maximally potent.
like you can't even theoretically come up with something that would be better than you know it's

(09:33):
like at best you would just match it in potency so you're just like you know in like a sports game
or something like that you play on like a video game you know it's just like maxing out taking
the slider all the way to the end you know 99 across the board overall or whatever like that's
what Bitcoin's doing as a monetary object. And then it's like, but it's not just that it's a

(09:57):
powerful object. It's also that it, since it's so, you know, oriented on the freedom and you can
send it anywhere and you can do anything, you can take, you know, you're not limited by the
centralized, you know, powers that be like, you can only spend your money here. You can only spend
your money there. Oh, you want to withdraw your money? We'll fill out this form, get this stamp,

(10:18):
wait three days oh we'll send it to do like you can just do with it what you want when you want
um and like that's maximal range of motion like you can't really think of like I mean maybe you
could come up with some theoretically like more a little bit more freedom uh in some sense but like

(10:40):
for the most part it's I mean it's the most free thing we've ever like kind of conceptualized so
But you put those two together and that's kind of what, you know, that idea of power and motion together as athleticism.
It's like, well, that's another way of thinking that it makes you the super athlete moving through economic reality.

(11:02):
Like I walk through the day different.
You know, if I have a broken leg and I'm like going through the ghetto or whatever, like I'm I'm I'm walking through that environment in a completely different state of mind.
knowing that I'm limited. Whereas if I'm, you know, all American linebacker, you know, crazy

(11:22):
big dude walking through, I just, I walk through life differently, a different attitude, a different
mode of being. And like, I think that's a reason why, you know, people that get into Bitcoin,
they say, they act, you know, I don't know, they act in a more dignified, like, I don't know,
they're just more powerful people walking through life. So you don't have to be scared off. You don't

(11:45):
face things like adversity. Like, I don't know if something happens, life throws a wrench at me.
Like I can handle it. I can take it. I have confidence moving forward that, you know,
I'm not just going to be, you know, wiped out by something like, and that like, it translates to
all the other domains of your life, how you relate to your kids, how you relate to your spouse,

(12:08):
how you relate to your neighbors, like that. It's like a cascading effect, which I think is really,
really cool and important. And I don't know, that's just kind of what I've been thinking
about this morning. And I don't know, thought I'd share. Yeah, it's I mean, it's the type of
attitude that you get from having savings. And our society's really lost that. I mean,

(12:31):
you see all the statistics. If Infro was up here, he'd be able to tell us about, you know,
all the numbers. And I think it's it's like most people don't have five hundred dollars in savings
to their name. And then you go up from that level and even the people with any level of wealth,

(12:52):
you know, that savings is tied up usually in their home. So we're just hamstrung and don't
really have a good concept of like a liquid savings that we can flex and utilize, you know,
for our life. So that, you know, Bitcoin gives you that, especially once you understand it,

(13:12):
when you're first getting in, you know, the volatility can kind of, or maybe not these days,
the volatility, but historically the volatility in past cycles and everything else, you know,
can make you uneasy until you really grasp that you're holding a better denominator
that's not changing and kind of the one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin mindset. It's like, okay, I can

(13:37):
stack on top of that and it's only going to get more and more solid ground and I can, you know,
live my life the way I want it to. And it gives you a better confidence. So I totally see where
you're coming from. Yeah, it gets me thinking a little bit about friction and, you know, Neil,
in your description, obviously we all know Bitcoin is, takes away all of that third party

(14:03):
risk and friction.
You have this freedom to spend whenever you want wherever you want nearly instantly And I do think though like on the other side of that
there are frictions to Bitcoin adoption.

(14:25):
And so as we build out more services, more layers to enable people,
normal people to adopt this technology,
I do think that that friction in the financial system is something that is enough.

(14:45):
As we talk about the news and all the things we see happening with financial institutions, governments, so on and so forth.
I think if people can get around that friction with Bitcoin, that adoption flywheel will continue to occur.
And, you know, I do like looking at how Bitcoin is adopted versus the Internet.

(15:11):
And I think, you know, many people have talked about that where, you know, early on, you know, it seemed like no one was using it and then it exploded.
Right. It went parabolic.
And adoption, you know, is to the extent where every company is using the Internet in some form or fashion.
And I think the same thing will happen with with Bitcoin.

(15:34):
Anybody else have any thoughts on this topic?
Or as Neil, Texas Toast, and myself were talking,
did it make you think about anything else, Pubby or BFP?
Or should we move on to the next topic?
You know what?
Just out of respect, I'm not going to do the crickets.

(15:56):
I was going to say, reframing, Bitcoin is doing that.
You said Bitcoin is going to do that.
I think Bitcoin is doing that.
It's just the very early days where people were like, I'd never put my credit card online.
Clutch my pearls.

(16:20):
Yeah, I think my comments are because really it's doing it for us.
But there's so many more people that have yet to adopt this.
And so that's kind of the exciting part that we get to see this and chat about it.
But I think it is going to take more development, right?

(16:43):
More like we're in the, I don't know, first inning of this thing still.
Some people would say we're a lot further along,
but maybe that's just because we're over 100,000
and a few people have abandoned their laser eyes.
But I do know some people are still doing push-ups.
This is how early we are, and this is how crazy it is, Bob.

(17:04):
$100,000, $120,000, and it still doesn't move the needle.
Eight years on, and it's still not moving the needle.
And what's interesting is this really started mostly as a medium of exchange.
That's the first line in the white paper abstract, right?
Just peer-to-peer, online payments, and that's how it started.

(17:26):
I don't even know if Satoshi himself knew how valuable it was going to be as a store of value.
And this is what you're seeing play out of the natural order of a monetary system needs to be a store of value, then a medium of exchange before a unit of account.
This thing just started as a medium of exchange.
You got people like, fuck, I need to buy some drugs.

(17:47):
Then they're looking back the next year saying, Jesus, I just had a million dollars worth of drugs go up my nose.
What the hell is this thing?
What is this Bitcoin?
They go back and people, now, yeah, they start getting it, number go up.
And now you're being told, well, you got to spend it.
I'm like, fuck me, what?
I'm going to spend this thing.
That's the most valuable thing I got.

(18:08):
That's why you have buy and replace.
And, man, it's been quite a journey so far.
And I'm laughing.
I'm laughing because we've been here this long and nothing's changed.
Nothing has changed.
We're here and early.
I mean, we're still taking batting practice.

(18:28):
That's where we are.
But, yeah, we'll see where it goes from here.
Yeah, good stuff.
And, yeah, thanks, guys, for kicking around that topic.
I do think that's an interesting one, Neil.
And maybe you could write an added chapter to your book on that.
Guys, if you don't know, Neil wrote a pretty good book.

(18:49):
I would recommend check it out.
You can message him to get it.
It's also on Amazon, I think, still.
So let's look at what else is going on, guys.
We've kind of avoided a lot of the news topics, and maybe we'll still continue to do that today.
But I did notice that we announced during the show yesterday that a difficulty adjustment was coming.

(19:10):
I think we were on the opener.
We're about six blocks away.
I didn't see how fast the blocks were coming during the show yesterday.
But we did have the difficulty adjustment after Bitcoin miners have sustained that historic one Zeta hash amount or milestone, I'll say.

(19:33):
And so miner difficulty jumped 4.1% yesterday.
And if you guys have been paying attention or if you've been around long enough, you do see that hash rate usually precedes the price going up as well.
And so wondering if anybody has thoughts on that.
Do you guys mine?

(19:54):
Are you thinking about mining?
Do you solo mine?
Anything like that?
Anything come to mind with the mining going over, being sustained at one Zeta hash?
Yeah, I mean, for me, it really just shows a...

(20:19):
you know, an arms race of sorts that's going on. Um, people are plugging in miners in places you
probably wouldn't think of. Um, I just saw Samson Mao picture of him next to the third largest
hydro plant in the world in Paraguay. Um, and it's just incredible, you know, seeing these,

(20:44):
these energy resources being used um you know to mine bitcoin and it's like
you gotta think that a nation state um arms race or hash race is kind of going on
in the background and that that's that's what it kind of looks like to me i don't know about you

(21:06):
guys okay i'll bite um good morning you guys i'm just waiting for my coffee to still brew good
we gotta we gotta uh figure out your audio situation so that it doesn't echo feedback

(21:27):
every time you have your mic open at the same time as somebody else i've noticed that we gotta
figure that out maybe get you in headphones or something you got headphones over there
I do have headphones.
Weird.
All right.
Well, yeah, hashrate is a funny, funny thing.
And I think it's a widely misunderstood thing because it's just this metric that it seems to a lot of people like it's a direct thing that's being read off the network.

(21:59):
Like, we just hit a zeta hash, and it's a sort of estimated thing.
So it's constantly changing based on the actual verifiable inputs to that estimation.
What's really interesting is that over time, you see these trends,

(22:19):
and that hash rate chart is just stunning.
It's like the most bullish chart you've ever seen.
If you just pull up the network hash rate chart and you look over any long period of time, you see this absolute parabola.
And so, yeah, that's representing this fierce competition.
I'd say it's one of the fiercest competitions is the Bitcoin mining thing that's happening on planet Earth.

(22:45):
so you know
the more people that compete
to win blocks
the faster those blocks occur
and the faster that the blocks occur over time
forces Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment
to go higher
the higher difficulty means that it's

(23:10):
harder to find a block
so you need more hash power
And you get this incredible feedback loop of the demand on those participants, on the Bitcoin miners, to increase their competitive edge because what's happening is the entire competition is just getting harder and harder.

(23:33):
That's another way to look at that hash rate chart.
It's just that much harder to find a block.
So if you're running a little bit axe at home, I am really terribly sorry to inform you that it's just going to get even tougher and tougher to hit a block.
If you've got your little lottery ticket, you know, your odds of hitting the lottery are actually going down significantly over time.

(23:59):
Because the total sum of the entire mining network is piling on more and more hash rate.
And those are all the other folks that you're competing with to try to hit a block.
So it's a really incredible thing when you see this.

(24:19):
In the moment, there's a lot of variance in that reading if you really zoom in.
And that's because it's based on the pace of blocks.
And the pace of blocks is random.
Although what I said before is true.
over time as there's more hash rate as there's more people competing those blocks will be found

(24:43):
faster and faster by the whole group but that's why you know you want to look at hash rate on some
kind of average reading over time and when you see a difficulty adjustment which is roughly every two
weeks that's a really good sort of sample size to look at well we just had like a four and a half
percent difficulty increase last difficulty adjustment over two weeks ago. And then just

(25:07):
yesterday, another difficulty adjustment north of 4%. And that's where you can really see the trend
that there is appreciable additional hash rate coming online. From what I hear and what I know,
a lot of people are bringing on the new generation equipment you know it was a year or two ago

(25:34):
some of these new s21s and the m60s from what's minor and like just these new generation machines
with really amazing efficiency and hash rate on them and it's not instantaneous that these
hardware are acquired and then actually put into facilities and energized and actually operating.

(25:57):
So it takes some time. And I just really think what you're seeing here is just a steady coming
online of this new generation equipment, as well as new participants joining the competition. So
it's really fascinating when you dig into it, you know, build a little perspective about it,
pay attention to it over time and you'll just you'll see the most some of the most bullish side

(26:20):
of bitcoin which is folks that aren't talking about paper bitcoin and price targets they're
talking about like how can we get more hash rate how can we convert new energy sources and they're
they're building out business plans and and committing capital i mean it's the most bullish
group of participants in the entire scene

(26:43):
Yeah, it's good stuff.
And TC, I did have a question.
As I was looking at time chain calendar, it says that the average block time is 9 minutes, 25 seconds.
So we're 11 blocks fast.
Obviously, the network is trying to target 10 minutes.
And so what do you make of that?

(27:04):
Obviously, we've seen increase in hash rate and the adjustment occur.
So over these next, maybe just for the audience, over these next, looks like, 1,865 blocks next two weeks, like you said, what do you expect?

(27:25):
Does that number climb up towards 10 because of this difficulty adjustment, or is it also dependent upon the amount of hash power that comes online during this time as well?
Wow, great question.
You know, statistical averages are a funny thing.
And again, you know, this is really good material for thinking about what Satoshi was thinking about when he made these different choices.

(27:56):
You know, 2016 blocks is the difficulty cycle.
That's roughly two weeks.
It's exactly two weeks if we have exactly 10-minute blocks.
And that's the sample size that the difficulty adjustment accounts for.
It's really interesting.
It's like there's no adjustment happening at all.
There's nothing regulating the pace of blocks.

(28:17):
And it's only after this roughly two weeks of blocks that the protocol looks back at
that two weeks and says was this faster or slower than 10 minutes When the adjustment changes in response to the previous two weeks you would kind of expect if this is faster or slower than 10 minutes When the adjustment changes in response to the previous two weeks you would kind of expect if the hash rate remains the same
if the competition remains roughly at the same level and the difficulty goes up,

(28:42):
you would expect the pace of blocks to slow down.
This is really where I think you can get an easy perspective.
When you see repetitive difficulty adjustments in the same direction, that's trend.
We saw two difficulty adjustments ago, difficulty get cranked up 4.5%.

(29:04):
And I would say easily if you had the same level of hash rate for the two weeks that followed that that you had before, you would see slower blocks.
you would see something closer to 10 minutes because it was that much faster than 10 minutes
that caused that big difficulty increase. Well, then yesterday we see another big difficulty

(29:25):
increase. So it's showing you right there, hash rate is not standing still. This level of
competition is not remaining the same over that last month. It's steadily increasing. And that's
Again, what you would watch if you see this last difficulty adjustment yesterday, it went
up over 4%.

(29:47):
That's what happens in my mind.
I'm like, okay, let's see.
Does it even out this next week or two?
Do we see an average block time more like 10 minutes or even north of 10 minutes?
Because that's what you would expect with this kind of dynamic.
Okay, it was too fast.
We're going to make it tougher.
So maybe the pendulum would swing back the other way.

(30:09):
And when you see the blocks continue to come in faster than 10 minutes, even after multiple increases, you know something's going on here where the amount of competitive hash rate is increasing.
It has to be because look at the pace of blocks.
So this is, again, where I say sorry to the folks running a little bid axe with a lottery miner because it's like somebody with that same amount of hash rate, your little desktop miner didn't get more hash rate in the last month.

(30:43):
It's got the same that it had a month ago.
And meanwhile, the entire competition has cranked up the difficulty and has, because of trend you can clearly see, there's more competition.
So it's really a fascinating perspective that you can easily develop if you just pay attention to that average block time.

(31:06):
And that average block time will tend to kind of vary over the course of the two weeks.
That's the red circle on time chain calendar.
But as it approaches completing that two-week period, that's when it really matters because that average block time directly translates into the next difficulty adjustment.

(31:27):
So it's a really cool thing to just kind of pay attention, watch over time.
And as we certainly as we come into the second half of a difficulty cycle, the second week, and then as we get to within a few days, you kind of just check it out with a little bit more intent because you realize, okay, we're getting close to where that adjustment is going to occur.

(31:49):
And that average time is going to directly translate into that next change in difficulty.
Yeah, it's a great perspective.
And I think we don't talk about this enough.
So for some people, maybe they're like, oh, I just want to talk about the price.
But this is the backbone of the Bitcoin network.

(32:12):
And it's fun to look at, especially when you have great tools like Time Chain Calendar.
I want to go to BFP.
Go ahead, sir.
Yeah, this is for TC.
The Zeta hash is the newest thing.
I was curious, how long do you think it's going to take to get to the next one, which would be, you know, a thousand Zeta hash, which just seems so far away, it's disturbing.

(32:39):
And what is it even called?
Or do you know?
I'm just curious about the next step.
I don't have that instant recall.
I know where to look to go look that up.
But I'll get back to you on that.
Yeah, we need you to...
we need you to put that into time chain calendar though for sure no i'm just kidding it is cool
i was just gonna say no i no idea when we a thousand fold the level of competition for blocks

(33:09):
but i would just look back at where we increased by the last thousand fold and that is
you know maybe I would I would think that there'd be something similar to that it's probably several
years but you never know I mean like these are the kinds of things where I feel like there's a

(33:31):
whole new class of participants now than there were five or six years ago you've got like legit
nation states poking around and trying to get into this I think I just saw Laos or something
just the other day announced they were going to be using hydroelectric from their dams to mine Bitcoin.

(33:55):
There's a really big level participation happening,
and it's because of the synergy with energy production and energy grids
and kind of like all of the amazing benefits that come from Bitcoin mining
and the ways in which it can be used to enhance electrical systems.

(34:18):
So we're going to see more and more of this.
As you see the competition evolve over the next several years and decades,
it's going to go from warehouse miners to energy companies and nation states
and just bigger and bigger participants with more and more resources.

(34:38):
Yeah, very specifically with like,
I think we're all hearing some of the same things in regards to nuclear and how everybody needs energy right now.
And to spin up a nuclear plant is pretty expensive.
I'd say it's probably less expensive relatively than it has been in the past if you're using an actual hard money standard.

(35:04):
But, you know, a lot of countries that couldn't necessarily justify the expense of that before, now that Bitcoin mining is online and can be utilized to get an ROI off of that initial baseload and provide an initial baseload, I think we're going to see a lot more nuclear proliferation in the next decade.

(35:29):
and Bitcoin mining is going to take a huge interest in that.
So that's where I see a ton of the hash rate coming from is attached to these nuclear sites across the world.
So I think that's going to play a big part.
Yeah, it's good stuff.
And I do think, you know, they've announced over and over again,

(35:52):
but that the government of Bhutan as well is engaged in Bitcoin mining directly.
And that just gets me thinking that, you know, there's, as you said, TC,
there's more and more coming online, different types of players.
But you can see where if you're the U.S. government, you might have proxies.

(36:13):
You can print money, push it to miners, and have them mine for you.
I don't know. It's kind of an interesting idea, but I see Neil's hand. Go ahead, Neil.
Yeah, I had a question for TC. Just shows I lack a lot of technical depth, but with the mining,

(36:35):
is it like the same exact... If two people found a block almost simultaneously, that doesn't matter.
Like, when someone finds a block, it doesn't, like, reset the problem where it's a new problem that everybody's solving.
It's just coming up with the right output, and those just stack up.

(36:55):
Is that correct?
I don't really know exactly how that works with when they mine the block and how that works.
Well, first of all, I heard you say solve a problem.
Did you mean solving complex mathematical problems?
problems because that's what you hear in the mainstream news about Bitcoin mining.
And it's just not true.

(37:17):
Yes, it's coming from the output, right?
Well, it's much more akin to like throwing a dart at a dartboard.
And it's like, did you hit the bullseye or not?
And now you're standing there throwing trillions of darts a second at the dartboard.
and now you're blindfolded and throwing trillions of darts in the general direction of the wall

(37:39):
and the dartboard's moving around and now you and a million other buddies are all blindfolded and
all throwing trillions of darts at the same time and the dartboard's moving around and this
moment that somebody hits the bullseye the moment that somebody quote-unquote mines the block
everybody else will find out about it because that gets broadcast to the network and circulated

(38:02):
around. And the very moment that miners find out somebody else hit the block that they were trying
to hit, they immediately start working on hitting the next block. And that's how this chain works.
If you're still mining on the block that Bob hit, you know, Bob hits block number 17,

(38:22):
and you were mining for block 17, and now the word is circulating around the networks,
Bob found Block 17, everyone starts looking for Block 18.
And if you're still looking for Block 17, you're wasting energy because now everyone's working on a longer chain.
That's basically how it works.
And when two people find a block incredibly close together, that is the difference maker, is that gets broadcast to the network.

(38:50):
And it's whoever's block everyone's building on top of is the block that everyone acknowledges was mined.
And so, yeah, it happens all the time that people find the same block.
Because there's another one.
Because if you also have, you could have found the correct block, and then there's a chain, and there's a split in the chain, and then that split gets resolved.

(39:13):
And so technically two people could have solved a block, different blocks, right?
Right.
That's basically what I'm trying to describe.
You said it a little better.
It's basically what everybody builds on top of.
So Bob finds block 17, Texas Toast finds block 18, you know, BFP finds block 19.
And it's like each time somebody finds a block, the entire group becomes aware of it and starts working on the next block.

(39:42):
When you hear these things about attacks on Bitcoin, 51% attacks and things like that, those kind of scenarios are where somebody is a bad actor who wants to wrest control of the chain, and they actually keep working on the block that Bob just hit with an effort to try to actually build their own block 17, 18, and 19, and 20.

(40:06):
And now the whole network hears about block 20 and they start building on that.
But there there's a different block 17, 18 and 19 behind it.
That's the basic gist of the kind of 51 percent attack is that you, you know, you kind of rewrite the blocks and you you use your oversized competitive edge with all that hash rate to redo the work that somebody else did.

(40:35):
and change it with different transactions in the block and build on top of that.
And so it's a really, it gets a lot more technical.
Until you said that, I didn't realize that that was still a probabilistic outcome.
That even though they have all that work that they're doing, that that's still a probabilistic result.

(40:58):
And they could have done all that work and the last second they miss it and all that work is gone.
Well, that's why it doesn't happen very frequently, if hardly at all, is because it's a massive risk. It's whoever is expending that extraordinary amount of energy and resources to kind of like redo and undermine somebody else's work and try to control what ends up in the chain.

(41:23):
And it's just not a very good risk reward scenario.
And so you have to be talking about somebody who actually has way more hash rate than 51% to effectively not only achieve that rewrite, but to maintain it and continue doing it.
And it's just one of those things where-

(41:44):
Well, and they still have to get lucky.
And they still have to get lucky.
That's the crazy part.
Well, that's the thing.
the closer you get to 100% of the hash rate,
you don't have to get as lucky.
That's the point.
That's why if you have 80% or 90% of the hash rate,
you hardly have to get lucky.
You're going to be winning most of the blocks.
So that's why it matters when you see
who's got all the hash rate,

(42:05):
who has maybe a little bit too much hash rate, you know?
Thanks for that explanation.
That answered my question perfectly
and it was really easy to understand.
Appreciate it.
Yeah, this is a great topic.
And I do think, you know, it's interesting to see, too, that there's – you can even calculate or estimate, I guess, the probability of the next adjustment.

(42:40):
So do you want to talk about what went into that TC of how you calculating that on time chain calendar It looks like already in this difficulty adjustment period we seeing that it looks like right now almost 2 increase at the next one

(43:01):
I know you said to take a look at that a little bit more closely as we get down in those 2016 in this period.
We're right at the start almost for that.
But, yeah, I'm just curious.
Like, it's interesting because you're taking all of the inputs, which is the hash rate that's online and coming online or going offline, I guess, and where the difficulty sits.

(43:30):
Do you want to talk about that a little bit?
It's actually really simple.
It's about the amount of work that's done or the pace of blocks within a given time frame and the known difficulty level.
That number on the interface that shows difficulty, that's the same difficulty that everybody's dealing with.

(43:52):
That's established by the difficulty adjustment, and every single block is basically dealing with that same difficulty for the 2016 blocks until the next adjustment.
So everybody knows what the current difficulty level is, and then it's the pace of blocks within that that then results in the next adjustment.

(44:15):
as far as how much the adjustment is going to be
and which direction the adjustment is going to be.
That's based on the average block time that you come up with.
And basically, it's just as simple as looking at,
okay, we know which block was the beginning of this difficulty adjustment.

(44:35):
We know how many blocks have happened since then,
and we know the timestamps of those two ends of that sample,
and you can figure out the average block time.
And it's really cool because it just directly relates to those adjustments
and you can really see it.
I posted yesterday that I kind of gray out that average block time

(44:59):
in the very beginning of the new difficulty period
because it's a lot more volatile.
It's because you're dealing with a very small sample size
and so it's not actually as meaningful at the beginning of the period.
as it is at the end. So, um, I don't know if that helped.
Yeah, that's great. Uh, anything else on this, uh,

(45:22):
on this line of thinking, uh, it's been great to talk about.
I think a lot of people in the, uh,
in the space don't get exposed to this and we don't talk a lot about technical
stuff on this show all the time, but it is fun to, uh,
kind of go down these,
these paths and hopefully expose you to things that you don't think about all
the time.

(45:43):
Maybe one last thing.
I don't know if you've given any thought TC to this,
but also noticing that the average block time since the Genesis is nine minutes
and 36 seconds, which is still quite a bit faster than the target.
Right.
And so I'm just curious, like, as we continue to see hash rate come online,

(46:06):
what if anything
what are the implications of this
fact and
do you think we ever really see
a 10 minute target does that happen
once the hash rate kind of
levels out in some
future
that is
something that really blows

(46:27):
me away I actually am
amazed at the 9 minute
35 second 36 second
whatever it is total
average block time of the entire chain.
And it's because all of these mechanisms
are suggestive in a way.

(46:48):
There's nothing in Bitcoin that governs 10 minutes.
Nothing actually tells blocks that they have to be 10 minutes.
What there is is a constant equals to 10 minutes
in the calculation about difficulty adjustment.
but the difficulty adjustment even it's kind of like uh the bumpers on a kid's bowling alley you

(47:11):
know it's just there on the edges to sort of like encourage maybe even that's a bad metaphor because
really what it's doing is it's just it's like the uh what is it like it's like the current that
you're swimming against and when the current increases you got to swim harder to make the
same amount of movement forward and and that's kind of what it's like but when you zoom in

(47:35):
and you look block to block, there is nothing governing the timing of blocks.
It's totally deterministic.
A block can happen just literally microseconds after the previous one,
or it could take hours.
And that's really the kind of mind-blowing aspect of it
when you realize that over almost 17 years,
it's averaging 9 minutes and 36 seconds.

(47:57):
That's kind of astounding.
This system is remarkably effective at what it sets out to do,
And we casually say, oh, 10 minute blocks, 10 minute blocks all the time when there's really nothing enforcing 10 minutes, 10 minute blocks.
What there is is just this change in the current that all the Bitcoin miners are swimming against.

(48:18):
And when you have new participants joining the competition, the total force of that competition grows extremely.
And as there's more hash rate, you end up with statistically faster blocks on average.
And so it doesn't surprise me that over time, over 17 years almost, with this parabolic increase in hash rate, yeah, you're going to see faster than 10-minute average.

(48:47):
It's just amazing to me that it actually keeps it as close as it does.
What would cause it to come closer to 10 minutes is you'd have to have really long extended periods of time when you have slower blocks.
so the difficulty gets so high.
For whatever reason, hash rate stops increasing.
Hash rate even comes offline.

(49:09):
What's that?
Could that be one of the poison blocks?
There's so many different reasons.
I look back on recent history.
In 2021, China banned Bitcoin mining
for who knows how many times they had done it before,
but it was really a real ban this time,
and everybody freaked out,
and a ton of hash rate came offline.

(49:30):
That was the really important thing.
You had a dominant percentage of the hash rate in China
and legitimately they got shut off,
whether it was because of flooding and weather
or whether it was because of a strong-armed government
forcing people to do things.
Because we could see Yuri on the blockchain too, for sure.

(49:51):
Like that storm was there.
Okay, but keep in mind too,
over a longer period of time, a temporary drop doesn't really affect it that much.
You have to imagine an extended drop in hash rates.
Something has to happen where...
Something like Yuri, where the state of Texas was down for a week.

(50:12):
I mean, I think even bigger than that.
I think of global significant events where major portions of the participants go offline
for years.
then you would definitely see that average drift closer to 10 minutes and then north of 10 minutes.
And it's that kind of thing that you'd need to see.
And I got to tell you, this is maybe one of the valuable perspectives of looking at these things as a pleb.

(50:38):
You pay attention to this chain unfolding in front of you.
It is the literal heartbeat of Bitcoin.
Every single time a new block hits, that is the continuation of this process.
That is literal TikTok Nets block happening, and you can see it.
And to me, it's a very comforting and confirming kind of perspective to just continue to see that.

(51:03):
And you watch that average block time, and you see it just continue to be faster than 10 minutes.
You know this network is healthy.
That competition is stout.
and it's really, I think, a useful thing to put in front of your face from time to time to just
actually see the network thrive. Well, yeah, and specifically, I mean, exactly what you're

(51:25):
talking about. Like, I think about the China ban all the time and kind of what happened. And,
you know, you saw this one-time drop in hash rate and two weeks later, it was right back to,
But, you know, it adjusted, the network adjusted, and then we're right back to where we were before.
Well, we had like 15-minute blocks.

(51:47):
It was like a period where it was like 15-minute average blocks, and then you saw this massive drop in difficulty.
I will never forget it because that's when I started mining.
I literally had like the FOMO into mining.
I was like, oh, my God, look how much the difficulty has dropped.
It is so easy to find a block now.
And I ached into mining as a total noob and totally naive about it. But that's how this set of incentives works. If you imagine any scenario where the difficulty drops enough, that incentivizes other people to start jumping in and taking advantage of that drop of difficulty.

(52:23):
Right. And so specifically for the total average block time to increase, it would require, you know, over multiple two week periods for the hash rate to continue to drop.
So and in my mind, especially in this stage, like the incentives and especially with technological innovation, you know, with with faster and faster ASICs, you know, computing, getting a higher and higher hash rate just just because of technology.

(52:52):
increase. But so that's what you would have to see over the course of a long time. Every two week
period, it would have to go less and then less and then less and then less hash rate online
in order to, you know, facilitate that increase in block time over the whole span of Bitcoin's

(53:13):
life. So I don't really see that happening. Maybe if we hit like a technological stunt for years,
maybe that can happen or, you know, you know, there's other scenarios, but,
but I don't really see that happening.
On Monday's space, we're going to talk about zero point energy. No, I'm just kidding. But TC,

(53:37):
I do think that this is, it is a great topic, especially on a Friday. It feels like it's been
a long week, long week and a half with what's been going on.
So do appreciate you letting us pepper you with questions and coming up again
and talking about this stuff.

(53:58):
We kind of touched on it.
I don't remember when, a couple weeks ago maybe.
But you, with this, well, let's actually, let's not go there.
Because I think it's going to extend the show way too long.
And it's not that.
Yeah, I got to drop in a minute.
Yeah, exactly.
So it's Friday. We'll let everybody get on with their day and maybe enjoy the if you're still into listening to spaces here on this Friday, you can join the Bitcoin today, guys, at 1130 Eastern.

(54:33):
So you'll have a little bit of a break here.
But I do think we're going to wrap this one up early unless anybody on stage had any final closing thoughts.
I can give TC opportunity, Neil, BitPetro, BFP, Texas Toast.
Anybody have final thoughts on this one?
All right. I'll take it as a no.

(54:55):
Oh, hey.
I will say one thing.
We had a fantastic meetup this last meetup.
So if you're ever in the DFW area, please come out.
You know, we're getting about almost 20 people there. And unbelievably, we had two ladies there. So a big shout out to Bitcoin Mom who made it out. And yeah, guys, it's a really good community. Make sure you make it out to the in real life events. Make it out to the Bitcoin Veterans Summit for sure. And, you know, have a great weekend.

(55:33):
yeah if i can uh ever afford a helicopter i'll be at that one every time it's just it it takes like
an hour and 45 minutes sometimes for me to get to that one so i'm i'm like a once a year guy on
that one when i want to deal with traffic uh but that is uh it is a fun meetup and i like that it's
all at different places but guys get out to a meetup uh whether it's dfw or otherwise uh if you

(56:00):
You can find some people in your local area.
Then you guys can argue with people in real life about some of this stuff and
maybe some of the things you hear on spaces or these podcasts and otherwise.
But we're going to wrap it up.
Do you want to thank everybody for being with us each weekday, 10 a.m.
Eastern?
We'll do it again Monday.
Hope everybody has a great weekend.

(56:21):
And remember, do not shitcoin.
I don't know what to tell you
if you're still buying this garbage
it's
going to be sad times for you
people
that use
fiat

(56:42):
currency
as a store
of value
we call them
we call them we core
Thank you.
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