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August 22, 2023 • 19 mins

What exactly is a CBDC? In this episode Everett breaks down the emerging technology of central bank digital currencies. He discusses the latest developments in the space, how CBDCs work, and -- most importantly -- the conversations that the public needs to have in order to best manage the cool benefits and grave risks of government-issued digital currencies. He also responds to a question from the audience about a rare Lincoln cent error.

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Episode Transcript

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(00:00):
This is Breaking the Dollar.

(00:05):
The podcast that dismantles some of the biggest misconceptions about money.
Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of Breaking the Dollar.

(00:36):
As always, I'm your host Everett Milman and today we are tackling a cryptocurrency related
topic that really strikes at the heart of what this podcast is supposed to be all about.
The past, present, and future of money as we know it.
We've covered past money like gold and the gold standard, present money like fiat currencies

(00:57):
and future money such as cryptocurrencies.
In this case, I'm talking about central bank digital currencies, better known as CBDCs.
We'll cover exactly what CBDCs actually are, the latest developments in the space and what
this innovation is supposed to be used for.
So in past episodes, I've discussed the supposed death of cash and separately how

(01:22):
cryptocurrencies work.
CBDCs occupy somewhere at the intersection of these two topics.
Central bank digital currencies are the culmination of years of governments and regulators observing
the crypto space and sort of figuring out how to leverage this technology for their own
purposes.

(01:43):
The idea of a CBDC would be similar to existing stablecoin cryptocurrencies, for example,
Tether.
But they would be centrally controlled by the government.
Each government that issues a currency could have its own CBDC.
It would function as a fully digital version of their respective international currencies.

(02:04):
A central bank digital currency would still be base money.
In other words, it isn't credit and it isn't the same as the digital balance you see when
you check your bank account online.
Such an idea would essentially give every individual their own account at the Federal
Reserve or whichever country's central bank we're talking about.
Although there could be a more indirect version where third parties like banks or payment

(02:29):
processors still serve as intermediaries.
As of yet, government issued digital currencies may or may not incorporate a blockchain the
way that most existing cryptocurrencies do.
Norway is actually building its CBDC directly on the Ethereum network, choosing to use that
blockchain and building upon its infrastructure rather than creating their own from scratch.

(02:54):
Brazil's central bank has outlined a plan to do something very similar with a client
on Ethereum.
Again, in these early stages of development for central bank digital currencies, the blockchain
aspect is apparently still seen as optional.
Nonetheless, one can easily imagine that CBDCs will be able to implement crypto-like features

(03:16):
that are monetary innovations.
So in other words, innovations in the technology of money.
So for instance, the Nigerian central bank's digital currency, called the E-Naira, is actually
programmable.
What that means is that it can function sort of like a virtual token would in a video
game, except this is real money, in that the central bank, like a computer developer would

(03:41):
for an in-game currency system, could program rules or characteristics into the digital money
as they see fit or to achieve some certain ends.
Some use cases or examples of use cases that have been mentioned by officials in the Nigerian
government are to restrict what types of purchases or activities are done with social welfare

(04:03):
payments or government subsidies to farmers.
That would seem to solve most or perhaps all of the compliance problem in how government
funds are spent.
It would almost certainly do so far better than the use of government-issued debit cards
or vouchers or other things that have been tried in the past, sort of the government coupons

(04:24):
approach to public spending.
CBDCs could pretty effectively replace all of them.
There's a lot to say about the proposed benefits of CBDCs frankly.
And on the whole, I'm mostly critical of them becoming a thing.
I'm a critic of their implications or unintended consequences.
I'll get to my thoughts on that soon.

(04:45):
But there are some very clear and very cool benefits that the technology of CBDCs offer.
There's a good reason that basically every government on the planet is studying and exploring
CBDCs.
By my most recent count, there was over 80 different countries, including virtually all
of the G20 nations, the largest and most wealthy nations in the world.

(05:08):
So we should stop and examine those positive reasons first before I get into the bad news.
Another major use for CBDCs would be to more easily facilitate cross border money flows.
That is the movement of capital across international boundaries, whether in trade or foreign
investment.
This is the main focus for the BRICS countries' interest in CBDCs.

(05:31):
So to clarify, in case you're unfamiliar, BRICS is an acronym for the loose alliance
between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
They hold a summit each year where the leaders of those respective countries meet to discuss
economic policies and align their strategies in trade and other matters.
Again, it's somewhat loosely coordinated.

(05:53):
It's not a binding relationship like the European Union or other super national organizations
like the World Bank.
BRICS is really more of just a trade bloc or a strategic partnership.
But the BRICS have been in the news a lot lately because they might add a lot more members
and they're the biggest competitor to what you might call the US-led international order

(06:17):
and the US dollar's status as the world reserve currency.
There's been a lot of discourse around and speculation about the BRICS countries sharing
a CBDC.
Some suggesting it would be backed by gold, but that's actually been outright denied by
officials from several of the member countries.
This year's BRICS summit is actually coming up in a few days at the time of recording.

(06:42):
And despite some of the hype, it's exceedingly unlikely that a CBDC will be unveiled at this
year's meeting.
Let alone, a CBDC that is actually backed by gold.
But the idea of a BRICS currency or a BRICS coin, if you will, does make some sense based
on another possible capability of digital currencies, as it pertains to trade, which

(07:05):
is the automatic tracking of data, economic data.
This could vastly improve the quality and accuracy of all of that economic data, which
addresses one of the largest problems in the field of economics.
How do we truly measure all of the activities that people engage in that involve money changing
hands?

(07:26):
Sure, we have aggregate statistics like gross domestic product, GDP, and of course there
are import and export numbers published by governments.
But ultimately, these are all estimates or projections based on some raw data and a
mathematical model.
If CBDCs can provide a real-time record of all money flows, how the money was spent,

(07:50):
etc., etc., then perhaps it could go a long way to solving the problem of economic measurement
and thereby empower policymakers to adjust their policy tools and approaches in a much
more granular way.
Theoretically, an artificial intelligence or AI could even be trained to comb through
the data and identify patterns that might be useful for perhaps supply chain management

(08:15):
or trade negotiations or something like that.
It really could revolutionize the way economics and trade work or even the way that money
works.
As cool as all of that sounds, it does lead directly to my main critique of CBDCs.
If you're a skeptic by nature like I am, your mind may have already jumped to what I'm

(08:37):
about to say.
If digital currencies can be thoroughly tracked and programmed by the issuing government, then
that opens the door for central banks and governments to engage in really severe financial
surveillance and financial censorship.
You could have all of your funds frozen or have specific transactions denied due to rules

(09:01):
made by politicians.
If we take this idea to its logical conclusion, virtually every totalitarian government policy
you can imagine, at least with respect to money, could be automated into a digital currency.
By some accounts, this sort of thing is already starting to happen in China, with the government

(09:22):
either providing benefits or restricting privileges of its citizens based on their quote unquote
social credit score.
So on the one hand, there are all these really neat breakthroughs and handy features that
digital currencies can and I think inevitably will offer.
It simply seems like a matter of time.
Now we are probably looking at a 5-7 year time frame for development, even as some countries

(09:49):
such as Jamaica already have a CBDC in operation.
Someone that I follow very closely online, John Paul Koning, writes an excellent blog
about money called Moneyness and his most recent post suggests that CBDC adoption will
only follow a slow and arduous path and it could come at a major cost of disrupting the

(10:13):
status quo of the legacy banking system.
So I don't imagine that government digital currencies will rapidly and easily become
a thing in the US or Europe in the same way they've done in some smaller countries in
the Caribbean for instance.
But as I said, dozens of other countries are exploring CBDCs and it's not just some academic

(10:35):
exercise.
There are very good practical reasons why governments would want to leverage for themselves
the new technologies and new capabilities that have come out of the crypto space.
On the other hand, before we get to the point that CBDCs are fully incorporated into our
monetary systems, we as citizens and consumers need to have this conversation about the potential

(10:58):
for abuse that will come with central bank digital currencies.
It brings up very fundamental concerns about privacy and liberty.
How much control should a government have over its money?
I don't necessarily mean how much de jure control, how much control it has by the letter
of the law, but are more interested in how much de facto control a government could have.

(11:23):
Left unchecked, there is no doubt that a CBDC would eventually be used for increasingly
arbitrary or increasingly draconian forms of financial censorship, tracking, and just
general invasions of privacy.
The key point here is that there is still time for interested members of the public to advocate
for some red lines to be created that will limit what kind of capabilities CBDCs will

(11:48):
have, or at least impose limits on how those capabilities are used.
The United States is a long way off from having its own digital dollar.
The Treasury Department did recently roll out its FedNow instant payment system though.
FedNow is supposed to facilitate real-time payments in a manner that's similar to apps
you might be familiar with like CashApp or Zelle.

(12:12):
I have to imagine the US government is specifically looking into how it can incorporate web-3
innovations into future versions of the emerging FedNow platform.
So that could be the marriage where we see a US CBDC spring from.
But speaking of services like CashApp, there's also the tricky question about what CBDCs
will mean for non-government-issued digital tokens.

(12:36):
Now I'm not just talking about Bitcoin and Ethereum and cryptos more broadly.
So for instance PayPal recently announced it's coming out with its own stablecoin.
There are also reports that the website formerly known as Twitter wants to allow financial
transactions to be settled natively on its app, which does seem to lend itself to the

(12:57):
idea of a Twitter cryptocurrency or stablecoin.
I guess I should say X cryptocurrency. For the record I will never get used to calling
the company X.
I'm just going to keep calling it Twitter so you know what I'm talking about.
But PayPal and Twitter are pretty huge companies.
So as CBDCs become a reality, could we see private enterprises compete with Uncle Sam

(13:23):
and other governments for currency dominance?
I do tend to doubt that, but it's still an open question.
Obviously we will need more regulatory clarity from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,
the CFTC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, and especially from the US Congress.

(13:44):
Right now there is a stablecoin bill being debated in the House of Representatives, as
well as the more comprehensive Lummis-Gillibrand bill that seeks to tackle the issue of how government
agencies should treat cryptocurrencies.
In general, other jurisdictions like the European Union and nations in the Caribbean
have been more welcoming to crypto innovations thus far than lawmakers in America have.

(14:08):
And to return to the BRICS alliance for a moment, these countries are much more amenable
to the idea of ABDCs or asset-backed digital currencies that are actually backed by some
tangible commodity like gold rather than a fiat currency.
And again, to return to the Moneyness blog and be JP Koning for a moment, he provides
some clear evidence that a transition to a CBDC will not be frictionless.

(14:33):
And simply getting people to want and use it will be a hurdle unless the CBDC offers
some kick-ass feature that your regular dollar simply doesn't.
To reach that point, it's going to take time and research and development.
Of course, like most anything else in the world these days, the central bank digital

(14:54):
currency question has become inescapably political.
At least three US presidential candidates have platforms in favor of cryptocurrencies.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democrat side and two candidates from here in Florida on
the Republican side, Governor Ron DeSantis and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.
Now, none of them are really making crypto policy a central focus of their campaigns,

(15:19):
except for perhaps Suarez because Miami and South Florida have molded themselves into
the crypto capital of the United States.
But both DeSantis and RFK Jr. have come out against the development of a CBDC in the United
States.
I believe if I'm not mistaken that DeSantis went as far as saying he would veto any legislation
that establishes a CBDC and I believe Kennedy made the same promise.

(15:44):
Again, it's not an issue that's going to sway the 2024 election.
Maybe the 2028 election by the time we get there.
But it is interesting that this issue has found its way into becoming a political position.
So to wrap everything up here, there is obviously a lot happening and happening fairly quickly
in the development of central bank digital currencies.

(16:05):
I hope this has been a useful introduction to the topic for you.
And if there's only one thing you take away from this, it's that we ought to be wary of
the far-reaching powers a CBDC could afford government bureaucrats to monitor, manage,
and circumscribe your financial freedoms.
We still have time to build awareness and influence public opinion because as of now,

(16:31):
the latest data from the IMF and the Cato Institute show that most people still really
don't care about CBDCs yet.
Among those who are even aware of what a CBDC is, more than half of the poll respondents
expressed indifference about whether it would be a good thing or a bad thing.
And as much as I think government digital currencies are inevitable, there's still time

(16:55):
to mobilize public sentiment so that we don't end up with the worst of what CBDCs can do.
Okay, so now we will reach into our mailbag and take a question from the audience.
In this case, it is of course a digital mailbag as this comment appeared on the Gainesville
Coins blog back in May.

(17:16):
The question comes from Danielle and she says, hello, nice article.
I found a 1955 wheat penny with a strike on top of the head and a double In God We Trust
as well.
I looked at it with my magnetic magnifying glass, but nothing on Google.
Thanks.
Great question, the most important thing to know about error coins, which is what this

(17:40):
sounds like, Danielle, is that there are specific dates and varieties of the coin, which have
been well documented and are pursued vigorously among collectors.
So in this case, the 1955 Lincoln cent is well known to have a DDO or a double die
obverse, which is an error where the details of the coin appear to look like they've been

(18:03):
struck more than once, just slightly out of alignment.
So the trick with error coins is determining if they're really an error or they simply
suffered post-mint damage.
If the mistake on the coin or the damage to the coin happened at the mint, as with the
coin that has simply been struck incorrectly, then that's a legitimate error and it's highly

(18:25):
collectible.
But if the coin simply endures damage after leaving the mint, that is not considered an
error coin and it's actually probably worthless.
So yes, any 1955 penny with doubling should be submitted to a third-party grading service
for authentication.
Even in a rather poor condition, a 1955 DDO Lincoln cent is at least $1,000 coin.

(18:52):
For a penny! So I absolutely recommend getting that coin professionally graded.
The rest of you are always welcome to email your questions to me directly at everett.millman
at GainesvilleCoins.com.
Or like Danielle, you can just comment on an article on our blog and eventually I will
see it and might feature in an episode.
So thank you for listening and supporting the podcast and thank you to our sponsors at Gainesville

(19:16):
Coins.
Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Breaking the Dollar.
If you enjoyed the show, consider leaving us a review.
It helps other people find the podcast.
Breaking the Dollar is brought to you by Gainesville Coins, one of North America's largest
gold and silver bullion dealers.
Visit GainesvilleCoins.com to shop for gold, silver and platinum at the lowest prices in

(19:38):
the industry.
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