Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore reviews the relative valuation between MSTR MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT, plus deconstructing the recent PPI report which may not be the inflation problem many people initially thought. The VIX Index has seasonal patterns, and we are going into the season for increased historical VIX levels, but will history repeat itself?  What about corporate buybacks seasonality and what it means for the stock market over t...

Derek Moore and Mike Snyder compare the 2009 bull market to today plus Wall Street year end estimates get bullish again. Plus, What Nvidia’s options market is forecasting for implied moves around earnings. Later, explaining (or trying to) the revisions to the employment data, historical perspective, and the low response rates. All that and more as markets try to make another all-time high. 

2009 Bull Market vs 2022

Non-Farm Payro...

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way mo...

Derek Moore and Mike Snyder get into why anyone was short Opendoor and how the options market is flashing crazy implied volatility. Plus, how volatility and price movement may cause market makers to buy shares known as a “Gamma Squeeze”. Later, they get into how the signs are there that this bull market might have more to run (or not). Oh, and let’s not forget to look at what the options market is forecasting for expected moves on ...

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA e...

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner examine some market myths. Does a weak dollar mean problems for the stock market? Looking at tax rates and the effect on government spending vs revenue. Plus, some international market ETFs are up huge so can they continue? Later, looking at the national debt and when it might matter. All that and more market musings. 

Best performing international markets

Is the US Dollar weakness really that bad co...

Derek Moore looks at some data showing that buying markets at all-time highs isn’t so bad. Plus, after years of listening to how the dollar has lost 90% of its value or more, let’s set the record straight about whether this is a fallacy or truth. You might be surprised by the data. Then, examine the volatility and drawdowns of gold prices. Yeah, they drawdown more than you’d have thought. Oh, and going long the F1 Movie!

Comparin...

Derek Moore is joined again by Spencer Wright from Halbert Wealth to talk about the market breaking out to another all-time high and how hated a rally this is. Then they discuss semiconductors finally catching up to their only July 2024 highs. Then they talk about Chamath Palihapitiya’s criticism of Apple and a Bloomberg report that Apple had talks about buying AI company Perplexity. Finally, some odds and ends like whether oil pri...

Derek Moore looks to answer the question on whether Hedged Equity or the 60/40 stock bond portfolio is a better fit given where we are and why. How bonds had a 40-year bull market but is it likely that is possible again given where we are? Later, looking at market returns after CNBC does their ‘markets in turmoil’ specials when markets are selling off. Plus, why debate about should or shouldn’t the Fed lower rates is getting tire...

Derek Moore examines markets around historical geopolitical events. Plus, the 2020s are trending to be the most volatile decade and by the way we are up over 80% so far. Then, looking at the pop in gold and crude oil this week and perspective on where those markets are. Plus, a contrarian take that housing is actually cheap. Later talking semiconductor stocks, the US dollar index, inflation, and useless sentiment surveys.

1-year ...

Derek Moore looks at how companies in the S&P 500 are not correlated while the equal weighted S&P 500 is correlated closely with the weighted S&P 500 Index. Later, looking at historical rolling 10-year returns in the market and why it’s rare to have periods that are negative over longer time frames. Plus, touching on single stock risk a la Elon Musk, Tesla, and Trump public news hurts Tesla shares. Oh, and we are only 2.4% below th...

Derek Moore explains how what sometimes seems obvious isn’t what happens as we can see with inflation numbers that continue to move lower despite consumer sentiment surveys expecting 6.6% inflation in the next year. Plus, NVDA had its earnings and the stock’ forward PE is lower due to the next 12-month analyst estimates being near all-time highs. Plus, sell in May would have been a mistake as markets recovered and are ...

Derek Moore talks about seeing stories of exploding 30-year yields but what if they are low compared to historical relationships between the fed funds rate? Then, looking at how correlated the 60/40 portfolio has been over the last 5 years begging the question, did it do anything for investors? Later, looking at NVidia implied volatility ahead of its big earnings release this week to see what the options market is pricing in for a ...

Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several curren...

Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wron...

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus...

Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an ...

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys o...

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volat...