In June 2023, the Bureau of Meteorology upgraded its El Niño outlook from WATCH to ALERT, indicating a 70% likelihood of an El Niño event. This will probably bring drier conditions – and an increased chance of drought – to South Australia.
But what does ‘70%’ mean? And even if an El Niño arrives, drought isn’t inevitable. So how do producers deal with these uncertainties in a way that prepares their business for dry times, without leaving themselves in trouble if good rains do arrive? In short, you give yourself multiple options and take a longer-term view beyond a single season.
In this episode of the SA Drought Hub podcast series, Dr Peter Hayman, Principal Scientist, Climate Applications at the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), and Dr Chris Preston, Professor of Agricultural Science at the University of Adelaide, explore what this means in practical terms.
Peter examines what the Bureau forecast entails – what might be coming, the potential impacts, and how to use the data to your advantage – while Chris runs through the potential impacts of drier conditions on cropping and what growers can do to prepare.
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