Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hi and welcome to
this week's episode of Come to
Find Out.
This week, we are joined byBrendan Bland, with Neighborhood
Loans, which, if you have beena loyal listener, you know that
you have heard his voice andreceived his wisdom before.
So good thing you came today,though, because we're going to
(00:24):
be doing a market update.
You know, new year, new market,not really, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
I think the more of
the same, more of the same is
the headline.
But sure, yeah, absolutely,we'll talk about it.
We'll talk about it and makesure people know what's going on
.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
I love it.
Yeah, talk about it.
We'll talk about it and makesure people know what's going on
.
I love it.
Yeah, I swear.
You see all this like new year,new you, new year, new home,
new you know all the things, andit's like, well, yeah, new year
, but kind of the same market,although I'm sure that you are
going to give us some, somegreat little nuggets that show
us, you know, trending in theright direction.
So, yeah, so what is it thatyou're seeing out there?
(01:05):
Like, what are we, you know?
Obviously, again, as we alwayssay, we don't have crystal balls
, but I'd love to hear, kind oflike, what you're hearing and
what kind of your predictionsare.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Yeah, so it's it's
funny I was actually looking at
this earlier today kind of,what's happened over the last 12
months, what were people sayingthis time last year, what
actually happened over the last12 months?
And kind of, where are we attoday and at least as far ahead
as we can see?
Kind of, what are we seeingthis is like as it relates to
(01:41):
mortgage rates and those kind ofopportunities you know in the
market.
So a year ago, you know, a lotof the conversation was around
hey, 2024, the Fed is going tocut rates, mortgage rates are
going to come down, but it justyou know just by how much right
(02:01):
and how, you know how quicklyand all that good stuff.
When we look at the last year,ultimately on the net, not a lot
really changed from thebeginning of the year to where
we are even right now, the very,very beginning of 2025.
I remember I was listening to apodcast, another podcast that
(02:25):
they had this super smarteconomist on there and his focus
is the real estate industry,and he said, hey, by March or
April of 2024, rates are goingto be in the low fives, maybe
even the high fours.
And I was like whoa really.
I don't know where exactlythat's going to come from, but
(02:46):
there's people who are smarterthan I am.
A lot of people, most people.
But I was like, okay, well,let's see what happens.
And that didn't happen.
So I looked at last year soJanuary 7th, today's January 8th
, but January 7th 2024, theaverage 30-year fixed interest
(03:08):
rate which you know, that's anumber that includes all loan
programs, all borrower types,all down payments.
It kind of just gives like abig aggregate number was a like
6.75%, 7.75%.
Today, as we sit here, onJanuary 8th, so a year and a day
later, the average interestrate same metrics is a 7.125%.
(03:31):
So we're a little bit higherbut we're still in that same
range.
The high last year was somewherein April.
It was about a seven and a halfis kind of where the average
got to last year and the low wasin the low sixes.
So we've kind of where theaverage got to last year and the
low was in the low sixes, right.
So we've kind of been bouncingaround between this like mid six
to mid seven range, you know, alittle bit below, a little bit
(03:51):
above for the past year and it'sbeen a little bit I don't
volatiles isn't the word I wantto use, but it's been a frequent
mover within that range and thereason being and the reason
that we really haven't seenrates come down a ton is and
we've talked about this inprevious podcasts.
(04:12):
There's a lot of things that gointo what drive mortgage rates
and what make them do whatthey're going to do, but really
the last few years, one of thebiggest things is what's going
on with inflation and what'sgoing on with the economy.
Those are the two biggestthings.
So the Fed doing what they do.
(04:32):
Even though the Fed loweredrates this year, mortgage rates
actually went up a little bitwhen the Fed lowered their rate
because those two things aren'tnecessarily connected to each
other.
There is correlation, butthey're not connected, and
really what drives mortgagerates right now is what's going
on in the economy and what'sgoing on with inflation, and so
inflation has gotten better inthe past year, which is great.
(04:55):
We're more on target for that,and so we saw throughout the
year, rates did come down alittle bit as inflation improved
.
The kind of the problem that wesaw as it relates to mortgage
rates is that this economy,despite maybe what we've heard
on the news or during theelection season, the economy has
been stubbornly strong.
People are still spending money, new jobs are being created,
(05:20):
our GDP as a country is up andthat is all.
That's good news on amacroeconomic level, right, we
love to hear that.
But as it relates to mortgagerates, it's not good news,
because the better the economyis, the stronger the economy is.
The more money people have, themore likely it is they're going
to spend money, and that causespotential inflation.
(05:42):
And so that stubbornness withthe economy not, you know, not
cooling off per se you know wedon't want, you know, a major
recession.
That's not what we'readvocating for.
But the economy not cooling offhas kept mortgage rates up for,
you know, and there's really nomotivation or expectation that
they're going to, you know, diveall of a sudden unless we start
(06:05):
to see the economy cool down alittle bit.
So that's kind of what we'reseeing right now.
Now the Fed is going to continueto do their thing.
There are expectations they'regoing to cut their rate for
other types of lending in 2025.
And so we would expect to seethat.
And if you were once againno-transcript.
(06:48):
So I think really theexpectation is, if we can keep
rates with a healthy, steady,slow decline over the next year,
year and a half, two years,that's going to be the best
thing for the market.
It's not going to cause a lotof volatility as it relates to
demand and it's also not goingto kind of cause people to, I
(07:13):
don't know like kind of all tryand dive in at the same time or
pull out at the same time.
We've been hovering in thisrange for the past couple of
years and I think if you're aconsumer, you might be used to
this now and this is kind of theway things have been.
So really it's a matter of heycan we make If we're ready to
(07:33):
buy a home, both from afinancial standpoint, from a
maturity, emotional standpointall that good stuff.
I think for a lot of people,they've seen rates kind of just
hover in this area for a coupleof years and maybe they're kind
of now coming to the point where, hey, I'm not going to wait
anymore, right, because waitingfor something else to happen
(07:54):
isn't going to happen, at leastin the near future.
And if it does, once againthere'll be opportunities to
refinance and all that goodstuff.
But I think, once again, nearterm to medium term in 2025 is,
hopefully, rates coming downslowly, gradually.
But I don't expect unless wehave something really crazy
(08:14):
happen in the world I don'texpect a big, big drop and I
don't think that's a bad thing.
Once again, if you're a homebuyer, that's good news because
if we can make the payments andwe can make all that stuff work
for you, that's going to keepdemand at a healthy level
without it getting crazy.
If rates all of a sudden drop1% or 2%, that's when the
(08:39):
market's going to get floodedwith more buyers and it's going
to be more difficult for you toactually get into the home that
you're looking to buy.
So I swear, I don't like thesound of my own voice, but
that's my thoughts for 2025.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Well, I love the
sound of your voice and I love
that news because, as youmentioned, when we do see those
extreme drops in the interestrates, that's whenever everyone
comes out of the woodwork that'sbeen waiting and they all jump
in at the same time.
(09:13):
And that's whenever we getthese huge buyer wars and
bidding wars and everyone havingto throw money and you end up
paying more for the house andsometimes even your payment is
more because you're paying more.
So I think, as a buyer, itactually gives you more power.
(09:36):
So I'm not going to say we'rein a buyer's market, you know
yet just because sellers westill don't have enough, you
know, inventory out there,supply is still low.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Supply is still low,
and in November yeah, november,
the November stats for centralOhio, which is where you and I
are, um there were still undertwo months um of total supply,
which you know, I think you knowsolidly keeps us in a seller's
biased market.
There's, I think there's, moreopportunities for buyers now,
but, yeah, still leaning seller.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, absolutely Well
, and we're seeing that houses
are staying on the market alittle bit longer, which, again,
is not a bad thing.
Unfortunately, if you're aseller and you've maybe been
watching for the past three orfour years and or four years and
you're like man, I, if I doeverything right, I'm going to
list my house, I'm going to getmultiple offers, I'm going to
(10:32):
sell it's going to be done in aweekend, you know.
And now they're seeing like,well, why is that house sitting
for a month?
Why is it sitting for twomonths?
Is there something wrong withit?
And because that's what we'vebeen so used to in, you know,
2020, 2021, 2022, you know it'sreally gotten better and I think
our expectations have becomemore normal.
(10:52):
But I still get that questionLike, is there something wrong
with this house?
Because it's been sitting andyou know, from my buyers and I'm
like, not necessarily, you know, I mean maybe, but maybe it's
not, maybe it's just it'swaiting for the right buyer.
I still think that every youknow like there's a house out
there for everyone and it alwaysworks out how it's supposed to.
(11:13):
And you know, I think as abuyer, you should be excited
that you're going to see housessit a little bit longer, because
that does give you morebargaining power.
That's whenever you can go inand you know you can work with a
trusted lender like brendan andyou can work out a plan that
you know either getting theseller to give credit to buy
(11:34):
down the rate so that it'ssaving money, or get them to,
you know, give sellerconcessions so you're bringing
less to the table, so maybethey're helping to cover your
closing costs, or, um, you knowthere's so many different
creative ways that if you workwith a knowledgeable realtor I
would love to help you and youwork with a knowledgeable lender
(11:57):
like Brendan, then you willhave this recipe for success and
, like it always works out howit's supposed to.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, a hundred
percent.
I think it's spot on.
Yeah, I think, yeah, once again, we always want to, especially
when we have opportunities ashome buyers, to be creative with
how we're going to structure anoffer, looking at things like
seller credit, whether to reduceyour closing costs or to help
you take advantage of lowerrates.
(12:27):
If you're like, hey, you know,7.125 on average doesn't sound
great, but maybe six and a halfdoes, like you know there might
be, you know, some things youcan do from that perspective.
Um, yeah, what are you seeing,you know, with sellers right now
as it relates to yourconversations about hey?
Um, listen, it's winter, we'renot in spring yet.
(12:51):
You might need to do a littlebit more to get your home
listing ready, because we'llhave some sellers listening to
this podcast.
What is your advice?
If someone's thinking, hey, Iwant to sell my house in 2025,
what do you think they need todo to get top dollar in 2025?
What do you think?
Speaker 1 (13:11):
they need to do to
get top dollar in 2025?
Yeah, that's a great questionand ultimately it comes down to
first understanding what is themotivation for the sellers.
You know selling.
What is your motivation formoving?
Is it just because you justwant, you know, a different
house?
You know that would be adifferent conversation that I
would be like, hey, let's gothrough your house, let's see.
(13:32):
You know.
Like, hey, is your kitchenupdated?
Nope, it's still a 1970s.
Okay, you might want to goahead and upgrade that.
If nothing else, change yourcountertops and change.
You know you can refacecabinets.
We did this in our house andyou know it added so much value
and upgrades it for much, muchless than if you just replaced
(13:56):
all of the cabinets.
So there's little things youcould do.
But if I'm talking to someoneand they're like, hey, I've got
a new job that I start nextmonth, I know I need to do some
projects around the house, but Idon't have time because I also
find a place where I'm going tolive there and all of that, that
conversation looks like, okay,cool, let's just go ahead.
(14:17):
And you know, if there's someprojects that you can do real
quick, like finish some painting, or you know, like maybe a
project that you started.
If you can finish it, cool.
If not, we'll listen as is,we'll, you know, leave all the
materials around and and then,in that case, let's make your
house look as minimalist aspossible, you know, and then
(14:37):
just kind of go from there.
So I mean, honestly, just it'sthe conversation that I have, no
matter what you know, and Iknow you have the same
conversation with people whenthey come to you.
It's like what are, what isyour motivation?
What are your needs?
Where are you at right now?
And, um, you know, like, I'msure that that you're.
You know, you're hearing allover social media Now's the best
(14:59):
time to sell, now's the besttime to buy.
You know, yeah.
Well, it always is, it's alwaysthe best time.
But, like, the best time andpeople will ask me that, like,
is this the best time to list myhouse?
And I'm like, again, ithonestly depends on your
situation.
This might be the absolute besttime for you because it makes
sense for you personally, but itmay not be, and that's okay,
(15:22):
like, maybe waiting a few months.
I have some people that they arenot in a rush, so I said,
absolutely, let's wait tillspring.
Doesn't make sense to do it now.
Wrap up your projects, startclearing out your house, let's
do this now.
And then I have another personthat is like hey, I started a
job in another state.
Um, you know, in two weeks andI need to get my house ready,
(15:42):
I've started 17 projects but Idon't have time to finish them.
And I'm like, cool, like that'sfine, I'll meet you where
you're at, we'll get this done,and you know.
So you may not get top dollaron the as-is house with projects
not done.
But the people that are able towait for you know, because
spring market is traditionally abusier time than winter time
(16:05):
but honestly, as long as youhave your house ready to go, you
know, staged, you know, and bystaged I don't really mean that
you have to spend thousands ofdollars on getting a stager in,
it's really just like make sureit's clean, make sure that it's,
you know, like minimalistliving.
I always bring in a cleaner anda photographer and make your
(16:26):
house look absolutely amazingbefore we list it.
So you know like if you combineall of those things, it's
always you know, it's always arecipe for success.
But I also think that justmanaging people's expectations,
like I know you and I both dojust you know, hey, it is winter
.
There is a good chance thatyour house is going to sit a
(16:47):
little bit longer than it mightin spring, but you never know.
I also listed something in thewinter and got multiple offers.
You know, the first day it wason the market.
So it just depends.
Speaker 2 (16:59):
Yeah, every situation
is different and I love what
you said about really evaluatingthe goals.
Um, you know, with with thesale, and it's the same thing
with the purchase, like what,what's the goal here?
Um, yeah, because, to yourpoint, with with the sale, and
it's the same thing with thepurchase, like what, what's the
goal here?
Yeah, cause, to your point,sometimes it's more about speed,
sometimes it's more about, youknow, hey, getting every dollar.
(17:19):
Sometimes it's more about hey,I, just I, you know I'm, I'm
ready to move on, you know, andfrom the situation, and so I
just want this to be easy aspossible, right, and so, yeah,
there's all kinds of differentsituations that that could be,
that could be in play, and, yeah, yeah, I think, for, you know,
from a buyer's perspective, youknow, when you're, when you're
thinking about that too, andyou're kind of looking at it
(17:40):
from the seller's lens.
You know, yeah, this during thewinter time, you know a lot of
those folks.
They're selling for a reason,and so, um, if you can kind of
meet them where they are, um,and you might be able to there's
, I think there's win-wins for,for everybody especially this
(18:02):
time of year.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
So very cool.
Yeah, I totally agree.
I agree.
Well, thank you so much for umchecking in.
Obviously, um, you know, anyonethat listens knows that, uh, we
have you on here frequently andso obviously I will have you
back on to do another um, youknow podcast on anything that we
dream up, um, but also I'llhave you on more regularly to do
these market updates, cause Ilove that you, uh, you know the
(18:25):
information that you share.
Again, like I say on everypodcast that we do together,
make sure you're following hissocials, cause he does give lots
of little nuggets, nuggets, youknow, all the time.
So you definitely want tofollow him.
But I think what I love themost about you is that you don't
just listen to one source.
You're not just a one sourceperson.
You're listening to podcasts.
(18:45):
You're, you know, reading thearticles, you're deep diving so
that you have that knowledge, sothat you can truly help people.
Because I know you're like me.
We're servant hearted peopleand we just want to do the best
for for everyone.
So I love it.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
All right, is that
right?
No, yeah, thanks for thanks forhaving me on again.
And, um, yeah, looking forwardto a really awesome 2025.
And, um, yeah, yeah, well, uh,let's make it happen.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Perfect, Excellent.
Well, thank you again fortaking time out.
As usual, I will have all ofyour contact information in the
show notes so you know anyonethat's listening.
That's like man.
I would love to listen toBrendan talk more.
Definitely, reach out, followhis socials and you can listen
to him all you want.
So there you go, but thank youso much for tuning in to this
(19:32):
week's episode of Come to FindOut.
Please make sure that you arerating Five star rating is very
much appreciated and leavingyour feedback, because that is a
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Also, make sure you're sharingthis, because that is the
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make sure that you're followingthe show so you never miss
(19:52):
another episode.
Thanks so much and we'll seeyou next time on Come to Find
Out.