Episode Transcript
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Speaker 2 (00:07):
Now.
We spoke to you last week abouthow the real estate market may
not quite be in the kind ofhibernation that you would think
at this time of year, butthere's still a lot going on.
But it has also wound down alittle bit.
So we're going to have a wrapof the year with Peter O'Malley
from Harris Partners Peter's inthe studio.
Thank you for coming in, mate2024, I think has been a busy
(00:30):
year, it's fair to say, for you,and we were just talking off
air about how the wrap-up forthis year might be a little bit
different to the start of next.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Yeah, thanks, trent,
great to be with you.
It's been a year of two halves.
The first half of the yearclearly favoured vendors and
that was the case because themarketplace thought it was going
to get rate cuts.
Where that talk originated from, I don't know, but there was
definitely impacting on buyerbehavior, where they were
factoring in rate cuts right upuntil about June.
And then it became obvious thatthe RBA had no intention of
(00:56):
cutting rates anytime soon andfundamentally rates are at a
restrictive setting.
So, slowly but surely, no crash.
But they did put downwardpressure on property prices.
Stock levels were up in thesecond half of the year, making
it a little bit tougher forvendors to get a sale, and a
vendor had to meet the market inthe second half of the year in
order to transact those vendors.
(01:17):
Achieving a premium over themarket price tended to not
happen as much in the secondhalf of the year.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
It's interesting that
the housing market, as you said
, rose 5%.
Can you easily pinpoint wheresome of that growth is, or is it
just broadly across all sectors?
Speaker 1 (01:42):
No, there's segments
of the market that outperformed,
that probably did better than5%, and that was the prestige
market that's been impervious tothe interest rate setting of
the day since COVID.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I suppose if you've
got that sort of money, it just
doesn't matter.
Right, that's right.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
And PEXA, who do all
of the settlements up and down
the eastern seaboard ofAustralia, report that one in
three transactions aremortgage-free.
They're straight cashtransactions.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
One in three.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Yeah.
You wouldn't think it's thathigh, but it is.
And that's baby boomers,downsizers, selling the family
home and buying for a cashpurchase and pocketing the rest
for their superannuation.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
One in three is
staggering to me.
Like you said, you wouldn'tthink it's that high.
I suppose it's a generationalthing, though right, because you
talked about baby boomers.
You get to a point in your lifewhere you do sell the house,
you downsize, but one in threeis huge.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
It is.
It's a surprising stat and ithelps explain why interest rates
didn't have the immediateimpact on the property market
that everyone initially feared.
And it was much more difficultfor the RBA to get things under
control because there's so muchcash and wealth in our society.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
You've got some notes
here too about growth of older
style apartments.
That's interesting too right,because there's a bit of a, I
guess, a sentiment, and I noticewhen I speak to people.
They seem to be morecomfortable buying something
older than something that mighthave been built 10, 15, 20 years
.
They're happy to buy somethingolder.
Is that a fair comment to make,that there's this real sort of
(03:02):
confidence that comes frombuying an older building?
Speaker 1 (03:04):
That's more than fair
.
The expose on the strata sectorand the poor build quality
that's been allowed to take holdin Sydney over the last decade
has hurt that segment of themarket and buyers phone in and
say, look, we want to buy anapartment, we're not interested
in anything with gyms, lifts,pools, flammable cladding.
Flammable cladding and havingto replace that has been a big
(03:25):
issue.
There's 446 buildings in newsouth wales that had to
undertake the removal andreplacement of flammable
cladding yeah so buyersunderstandably either want a
discount on that product or theydon't want to touch it at all.
Hence the winner in the mark inthe apartment market was that um
older walk-up style apartmentso is that the sort of thing
that in the inner west you seethem everywhere?
Speaker 2 (03:46):
I live in the inner
west.
You see those sort of beautifulold 1930s, 1940s style
apartment blocks that might havesix, eight.
That's what we're talking aboutthat kind of older, back that
far?
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Yeah, that's more of
an Art Deco, is that?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
what you're referring
to, a Summer Hill Art Deco
apartment Ashfield.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
Yeah, buyers like
that product there's no doubt
about that because it's lowdrama.
It's low strata rates and it'slow drama but even going into
your 60s, 70s and 80s buildaesthetically and
architecturally.
They're not going to win anyawards, but they're good product
to get an entry point into themarket or as an investment play,
knowing that you're not goingto be spending $4,000, $5,000 a
(04:23):
quarter on strata levies.
And that's what some of thesemodern buildings are drawing off
the owners at the moment.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Is that something
that people who want to buy are
actively talking to you aboutnow that they weren't before?
So what I'm asking is whetheryou speak to a customer now who
says I don't want to pay thatstrata fee, whereas maybe five
or 10 years ago that was anafterthought and you just bought
and then went.
Oh well, the strata fee iswhatever it is.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Before you purchase.
Some people will buy blindlyand that's dumb play.
Before you purchase anapartment or a townhouse you
must read the strata report andit's legislated there that the
funding of that building isoutlined and the gremlins that
are in the system will becomeevident in that strata report.
And what inevitably happens isthe vendor needs to factor that
(05:09):
into their price if they do have$4,000 or $5,000 a quarter
strata because there's so muchmaintenance taking place.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Stock levels across
all price points and locations
surged, and the way that youwould see that, I guess, is that
that gives buyers a choice,because there's obviously more
out there and you're not rushingaround.
How does that play into amarket that desperately wants
interest rate relief, because wemay not see that into next year
as quickly as we'd like?
Speaker 1 (05:37):
either.
A symptom of a slowing marketis excess stock, and a symptom
of a strong market is a lack ofstock.
So what that means for vendorsthat are coming to market in
2025 is they must be alignedwith the market price.
If not, the market will leavethem on the shelf and stare them
down Right, because the marketcan afford to do that.
When there's choice In a risingmarket, a vendor can overprice
(06:00):
and buyers will still play atthem because there's not
alternate options in themarketplace.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Yeah, okay.
And if we don't see rates comedown quickly into 2025, even
though the rates are higher,does that make it more effective
to be a buyer than a seller atthat point?
Because the actual price of theproperty will come down.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
The auction clearance
rate in Sydney has been sub 50%
since August Wow that's quitelow, isn't it?
That's right and that's anotherstat that a lot of people aren't
conscious of.
Walking around, you knowtransacting in the market at the
moment.
So the mistake is the trend isunmistakable.
At the moment the market ispulling back in Sydney.
It's not crashing, but pricesare under pressure and that
trend will not break in apositive sense for vendors until
(06:44):
the RBA cut.
And the longer it takes for theRBA to cut, the more underlying
damage they're doing in themarket.
Because if you've got to sellyour home due to mortgage rate
pressure, interest rate cutsafter you've sold out at a price
you're unhappy with don't helpyou.
If you're a small businessowner and you lose your business
(07:05):
due to current marketconditions, interest rate cuts
don't help you after the fact.
So the longer it takes for theRBA to cut, the more damage that
will do to the underlyingeconomy and market and the
longer it will take for themarket to bounce back.
But everyone's got a view onthis.
I think the RBA will actuallycut sooner than we realise, in
2025, for the points we've justdiscussed.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Interesting message
from Steve too.
Morning boys.
I work in consultation and aimpost-tension stressor.
I wouldn't buy a new unit.
That's what Steve's saying, sothere's a bit of a sentiment out
there.
Based on that, you know thestudy that you were talking
about.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
There's an absolute
sentiment out there and where
that's in conflict with Trent iswhat Chris Minns' message is,
which he wants more apartmentsand as a real estate agent.
We're on the ground and we'remeeting people like Steve every
day saying I wouldn't buy abrand new apartment.
It's like that's slightlyproblematic because Chris Minns
wants to build a lot of them.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
And if he builds a
lot of them, we've got to sell
them.
Someone's got to buy them.
Speaking of that buying andselling, and specifically buying
in terms of if you're buying itas an investment, what are we
seeing or what do you think isgoing to happen for tenants?
Because we've gotten to the endof a pretty tough period for
tenants.
How does 2025 look?
Speaker 1 (08:19):
We are seeing a max
out point at the moment for
rents, where tenants can't quitebear it any more increases.
So anytime property managerslook to dial a rent up further
from here, there's realresistance from tenants.
We're early in the cycle.
Tenants accepted that it was inan upward swing, so there's an
affordability ceiling there.
And then the other thing that'sstarting to pop up in rent
(08:41):
rolls is a little bit of a rearswhere the higher interest rate
setting of the day and theslowing economy is spilling over
into tenancies as well.
So I don't think the rentalmarket will crash, but we have
definitely seen a moderating inthe price growth in the rental
market in the second half of theyear.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
It's fair to say that
it's shrunk overall.
Right, but we seem to have thisconstant argument at a
political level not enoughproperty to have this constant
argument at a political level.
Not enough property.
Rent's too high.
Tenants are struggling.
People can't find a place tolive On your side of the ledger
(09:22):
when you're actually there atthe coalface with properties.
How accurate is the assessment?
Speaker 1 (09:24):
that we see at a
political level.
There's a couple of thingsdriving it.
The immigration policy is toostrong, so there's too many
people coming into themarketplace for dwellings
available.
Because of the interest ratesetting of the day buy and hold,
investors are not entering intothe market and existing
landlords are selling investmentproperties off to protect the
family home rather than sell thefamily home, as you would
(09:46):
understand.
So what is happening overall isthe rental market is shrinking
at the same time that it'scopying a demand shock.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Right, okay, yeah, so
that actually then gives it
that kick at the same time.
Just a quick update from thepress conference that Joe Halen
just had the 360 train servicecancelled today and delays of up
to an hour.
So that's the 360 train servicecancelled today.
Delays of up to an hour sothat's the 360 train service
cancelled today.
Delays of up to an hour.
Um, so we heard our man at theunion say that trains run 15
(10:17):
minutes late regularly earliertoday.
Well, that one will be runningan hour late today, not 15
minutes.
So that's from joe ayland'spress conference.
Um, we were speaking off air,uh, peter, about where we think.
We were speaking off air, peter, about where we think 2025
might go.
It would appear that if you'rekeeping the interest rates up at
a certain point, you'reattempting to push the market
(10:38):
down, bring prices down.
Is that a simplistic view or isthat where we're at at the
moment?
Speaker 1 (10:44):
No, that's exactly
where we're at at the moment.
So Sydney and Melbourne areboth falling at the moment with
their property markets.
Both Sydney and Melbourne areboth falling at the moment with
their property markets.
Melbourne is falling a littlebit faster than Sydney because
they've got some land taxrestrictions there that are
squeezing landlords into themarket earlier than they would
have liked.
Brisbane and Perth are instrong upward swings, but when
you've got Australia's two mostpopulated cities both with
(11:07):
falling housing markets, thattells you that the interest rate
setting of the day is doingwhat the RBA wants it to do.
They would have been bemusedthrough 2023, where they were
trying to push interest rates upand contain inflation, but the
property market was rising at afaster rate than inflation,
meaning people were justrefinancing against the newfound
(11:28):
equity in their home tocontinue their lifestyles as
they were.
We're not seeing that happeningat the moment, where the
property market in Sydney andMelbourne is now underperforming
the inflation rate.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Right, okay, and
that's likely to keep going
through into 2025.
That's right.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
I personally don't
believe the downward trend that
property prices are facing atthe moment will break until the
RBA start cutting rates.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Peter, there's a
mountain of stuff we could talk
about here.
Thank you for coming in on yourSaturday, mate, and it'll be
really interesting to see wherewe go into 2025.
But thank you for taking thetime to have a chat.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Pleasure Thanks.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Trent, Thank you for
coming in mate.