Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All down, all silent,
going, going, going, go on son
Congratulations.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Welcome to the
Current Market Insights podcast
brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate.
Each episode we chat with realestate author and industry
leader, peter O'Malley, todiscuss the current property
market conditions and provideinsights to assist you on your
property journey.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hello and welcome to
another edition of Current
Market Insights.
I'm your host, kieran O'Brien,and with me is Mr Peter O'Malley
.
Peter, hello G'day, kieran.
Great to see you.
Great to see you again, peter.
I would like to talk this weekabout a couple of things that
our listeners might findinteresting and I certainly do,
as someone who's a bit of a datanerd.
But we often talk about the RBA, their interest rate choices,
(00:52):
how they're influenced by thedata, and we spoke last episode
about how they ignored the data.
They ignored the data for thefirst time, but one of the
things they obviously take intoaccount is the Consumer Price
Index, or the CPI, which is oneof those measures that we have
of how the economy is trackinget cetera and the cost of goods
and services, and I do know that, whilst I haven't looked at
(01:13):
them, which is on me there weresome CPI figures released today,
so I thought we might start bygetting you to take our
listeners through what the datashows and then really what that
kind of means for the state ofthe economy at the moment.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
So today's CPI data,
kieran, was quarterly data, not
the monthly inflation numbers,yep, and quarterly,
understandably, is the RBA'spreferred metric because it
obviously is capturing a broadersample of the economy.
So yeah, most people haveprobably heard that the
quarterly CPI came in at 2.1%,which is right at the bottom end
(01:50):
of the RBA's target range, andunderlying inflation, which is
the one that they are reallylooking to see come down because
it's been stubbornly high intheir view, came in at 2.7%.
But consensus was that thenumber would be steady at 2.8
and it came in at 2.7%.
(02:11):
So both those numbers theheadline inflation and the
underlying inflation are wellwithin the 2% to 3% band and
they're coming down andunemployment is going up.
So most people readilyacknowledge that a rate cut will
be forthcoming on the 12th ofAugust.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Last time we spoke
about the CPI, we did talk about
the fact that underlyinginflation was in a reasonably
good spot within the target band, certainly a little bit more
stubborn in terms of itsmovements.
It's a lot slower to kind ofcorrect or accommodate.
The headline inflation, though,was a bit higher last quarter.
This is quite low.
I don't think we've spokenabout CPI, where it's been at
(02:51):
the bottom end of the band.
Do you have any thoughts or doany economists kind of give
indications for why they thinkheadline inflation is so low
this quarter as compared withsome of the others?
Is there a suggestion that it'sperhaps reflective of consumer
sentiment?
Is it just everything that'sgoing on globally is impacting
expenditure?
Is it reduced governmentspending?
(03:12):
There's so many factors thatcontribute.
I wonder what might be drivingthe downturn right at this time.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
Look, it's really not
easy to follow what's really
happening out there if you'refollowing economists' commentary
, because so many economistsconsciously or subconsciously
suffer from confirmation bias.
Of course, they have a view ofthe world, and then they'll find
a data set that matches theirview of the world and spruik it,
and the most common phrase usedon Twitter is I told you so.
(03:42):
Yeah, you know, I predictedthis.
Everyone predicted the GFC, the2008 GFC in 2010, didn't they?
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Of course, and
everyone you know knew Bitcoin
was going to boom, but strangelydidn't have any.
That's right.
Yeah, indeed.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
So I think the 2.1%
is a really soft number and
reflects what we haveanecdotally felt ourselves over
the last few months is that thebroader economy is struggling.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Do you think there's
any possibility?
And you may not know the answerto this question, but given
we've talked before about theimpact of the US economy on our
flow and particularly all of theback and forth around the
tariffs, do you think that anyof the the kind of uncertainty
or impact financially becausethere has been some in the US of
the tariffs, do you think thatany of that is, could or may be
(04:37):
contributing to any inflationarydownward pressure here, just in
terms of reduced spending orreduced, you know, kind of trade
numbers across the board?
Is there any impact in thatspace or do you think it's, you
know, probably unrelated?
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I don't think
anything to do with the tariffs
other than sentiment has reallybeen impacted fundamentally.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Yeah, so there's a
lot of noise around the tariffs,
of course, but have the tariffsimpacted your life in any way?
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Look, not that I've
noticed.
I mean, everything's moreexpensive anyway, so there could
be some kind of higher dutiesor taxes, but I feel like
everything's so expensive anywayI wouldn't even notice it so
much.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Correct and you know,
Trump only came to power at the
beginning of this year.
We're about to head into August.
He hasn't fully enacted histariff position and he's doing
deals, so I don't think thatwhere we're at right, here and
now, the tariffs have played amajor role, if any role.
(05:35):
In where the economy's at, Ithink households are under
pressure with cost of living andwith mortgages.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Oh look, I certainly
feel that and yeah, I'm not
alone.
I must admit I sometimesstruggle to accept that Trump's
only been in power since January.
It feels like he has been aheadline news for the last
decade.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
But that's not a
hidden thing.
Both of those are true.
He's been back in power fromJanuary and he has been a
headline for the last decadebecause, you know, he dominated
the Biden presidency essentially, didn't he, of course, yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Set his own narrative
.
Yeah, look interesting, Do youthink that?
Obviously you know.
Economists think that this isenough economic data to lock in
a rate rise, Rate cut, Sorry,rate cut.
Pardon me that was a Freudianslip.
The data suggests that it's acertainty.
(06:30):
Do you think that that headlineinflation number is low enough
and unemployment is risingenough to facilitate a larger
than 25 basis point cut?
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Well, if you did see
a 0.5% rate cut on the 12th of
August, it would be the clearestadmission from the RBA that
they got it wrong in July.
Michelle Bullock did a pressconference or a keynote speech
late last week, completelyunapologetic about not cutting
rates in July and fullyjustified the position of
(07:02):
holding rates at that particularmeeting To the degree that she
had some questioning whethershe'd even stay on hold during
August.
Now the data today has probablyallowed the RBA board to cut
rates in August, as is widelyexpected.
But yeah, the RBA weren't outfor apologising, you know, as
little as five or six days ago.
(07:24):
So to think that they would nowgo with a larger reduction than
0.25% is improbable.
I think there's a case for it,but I think it's improbable
realistically.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Yeah, look, that
certainly makes sense.
I must admit, there's a part ofme that likes the idea that
she's unapologetic.
I feel like I want someone onthe you know, the board of the
RBA who is decisive Whether theymake the right or wrong
decision.
You could argue back and forthand semantics around how they
use the data, but I much prefershe's unapologetic about the
decision.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Yeah, okay, she was
decisive, but the board wasn't
decisive because they were split6-3.
Six wanted to stay on hold andthree wanted to cut, so that's
not decisive, that's a tightrope.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
No, it's not, but at
least look.
Yeah, I mean they're holdingfirm on their decision and you
know, I appreciate that a littlebit when it comes to some of
the other financial leadershipin the country may not be as
robust as the RBA, that's forsure.
Yeah, moving forward, then.
Peter, I want to just changetack slightly before we get into
(08:29):
our market wrap for the day,but I wanted to talk with you at
the moment about afinance-related topic.
It's something that we havetalked about, not as a direct
podcast topic before, but it'ssomething we've certainly
mentioned in passing in relationto conduct and possible
misconduct, and I know thatthere's been some changes to how
(08:50):
money laundering is.
It's been watched, I mean, it'sbeen in the media over the last
six months in particular, ifnot longer, but there's been
some changes in the way thatmoney laundering is viewed from
a real estate perspective andthe implications it can have.
Can you give us some insightsinto what's actually happened,
who's made these changes andwhat it really means?
Speaker 1 (09:10):
So, austrac from July
1, 2026, anti-money laundering
and counter-terrorism financingobligations will apply to
certain services and industriestypically provided by the
following businesses known astranche two entities, and the
first profession mentioned thereis real estate professionals,
(09:34):
such as real estate agents,buyers, agents and property
developers, dealers in preciousstones, metals and products
they're coming for your gold,kieran Lawyers Not much there,
mate Lawyers conveyances,accountants, trust and company
service providers.
So it's fairly catch-all.
Look, I'll let others decidehow realistic this anti-money
(09:58):
laundering and counter-terrorismfinancing is genuinely the
counter-terrorism part of it?
Um, I know, globally, that'sobviously.
We've all read that's a massiveissue is um?
Is the local real estate agentfacilitating counter-terrorism
financing?
Um, probably not.
(10:20):
But do real estate agentsacross the country at large get
exposed to questionabletransactions and turn a blind
eye?
Possibly and this is putting anonus on the real estate
industry that if you are foundto be negligent and willfully
(10:43):
blind to improper practice,you're on the hook, which we
haven't been today I again at acursory level.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I think this is a
good thing.
Uh, you know there's beenplenty of media.
I joked with you off air aboutthe strathfield property market
might collapse.
Now, because you know it's a,it's a local joke that it's all
uh purchased through moneylaundering at a like.
In a practical sense, thoughyou you say like confidently
that real estate agents areexposed to questionable
transactions.
(11:12):
What does that look like inreality, though?
I mean, you know you've been inthe industry a long time.
I've been involved in propertysales.
I mean, at the end of the day,if a trust transfer comes in
post-sale what you know, whatkind of things do you think an
agent might notice and go?
You know what I just I don'tknow.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
A red flag is
unexplained wealth.
So a 23-year-old coming intoyour real estate office and
buying a $5 million house whereis that money coming from?
It's unexplained wealth.
Someone who doesn't have a jobbuying a house coming from?
It's unexplained wealth.
Yeah, someone who doesn't havea job buying a house, someone
who might buy pay 12 months rentin advance in cash yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
But I mean, okay,
let's go back to the, say the
second one there, right, which?
Someone who doesn't have a jobbuying a house as an, a real
estate agent?
Practically, do you gather thatinformation?
I mean, do you go out and say,hey, what's your employment?
Like someone purchasing, isthere actually any scope for
agents to pick up on some ofthese things, or is it more
going to be an incidental?
Just you know gut feeling orintuition that says, hey,
(12:14):
something smells a bit off here.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
I think the criteria
is, first of all, does it you
know the ATO criteria does itpass the pub test?
So did you really go to LasVegas for that conference, or
did you go because you wanted towatch Celine Dion sing or
whoever was playing at the time?
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Does it pass the pub
test?
And that's where a lot of thejudgments will be made around
real estate agencies.
What's a reasonable expectationof the agent in these
circumstances?
And we have been told thatwhere we're in doubt we should
report.
So what they're saying to realestate agents is we don't want
(12:57):
you to be the judge or toconfront anyone to ask them to
explain the whereabouts of theirwealth.
To ask them to explain thewhereabouts of their wealth.
If you have reason to believethat it's unexplained wealth and
could be as the result ofquestionable funds, you are to
confidentially report thatincident and that's all you have
(13:18):
to do and you've met yourobligations, and then it'll be
up to the authorities to take acloser look from there.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
You might not know
the answer to these questions
I'm sure you don't but did theAUSTRAC give any indication from
a practical sense how easy andor challenging it is to make a
report for an agent?
Is it something that they mightjust go?
I can't be bothered becausethere's so much paperwork
involved.
Or, to your knowledge, you know, is it the plan?
It will be a very simple, youknow, online form and we're done
(13:47):
kind of thing.
Because I wonder it might begreat in principle, but if it's
onerous, is anyone actuallygoing to go through with it?
Speaker 1 (13:52):
I don't think it'll
be onerous.
No, but they are asking thereal estate industry to be their
eyes and ears at that level ofthe transaction and you know
different people have adifferent view on that.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
I mean again, in
principle it sounds good.
I think more people looking outfor shady activity is not a bad
thing.
But yeah, I must admit I alsohave to wonder too.
If I was to buy a house and myagent had some concern or
question over my wealthacquisition, I don't know if I'd
be upset if all of a sudden,you know, austrac and the ATO
(14:32):
were asking me questions aboutthings.
I mean, if I've got nothing tohide, obviously it doesn't
matter.
But I don't know, I wonder, canyou be unfairly placed on a hit
list because of someone'ssuspicion?
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Let's you know.
I see tonight the bikies are inthe news.
What did I see tonight?
Apparently, there's one firmtaking over another and police
are worried that it's going tostart a new turf war, Right?
So let's say, for example, thatthe bikies come into your real
(15:02):
estate office and start, youknow, paying deposits on
multimillion-dollar propertiesin cash, or paying rent two
years in advance in cash, andit's kind of like you know where
is this money from?
This is clearly questionable.
Yeah, there's a position forsaying the reports are anonymous
(15:25):
, so you can be anonymous andyou never need to tell the
person you're reporting on thatyou've reported them.
But there is a chance that itcould be traced back to the real
estate agent's tip-off or theaccountant's or whoever the
professionals are that need to,you know, report this activity
(15:47):
essentially.
So I think what you'll find isthat when people who behave that
way or conduct their businessthat way are conscious of these
anti-money laundering laws, theywill just drive their the smart
ones, the smart crooks, if youlike will just drive their
(16:09):
behaviours deeper, so they'reless obvious.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Improvise, adapt and
overcome, peter, that's right.
Speaker 1 (16:16):
Well, they're not
going to do stupid things like
try and pay 12 months rent inadvance in cash.
They will find different waysto pay the rent, in a more drawn
out, less conspicuous fashion,for example.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Yeah, oh, look,
certainly there's always.
Yeah, I love the idea of, of,uh, you know, government taking
action on some of these things,but also, yeah, it's fraught
with uh challenges and concerns.
Be interesting to see how itactually plays out and hopefully
it does contribute to gettingrid of some of the the behaviors
you know, because it's it'scertainly making in some, in
some pockets.
It makes housing, uh,incredibly expensive and can
(16:53):
incredibly expensive and justcontributes to the overall
issues in Sydney, which is a bitof a weird but maybe
appropriate segue into ourmarket wrap for tonight.
A couple of things to touch on.
Obviously, we've got the auctionclearance rates which we always
talk about, but I just veryquickly wanted to get your
thoughts.
(17:13):
I know you're not a big fan ofDomain's data or they've got a
tendency.
Particularly when we talk aboutauction numbers, they have a
tendency to report the morepositive side of their findings.
But there was an article thisweek in the Herald with Domain's
house price index suggestingthat the median in Sydney had
eclipsed 1.7 million for thefirst time.
That number aside, you know,taking it with a grain of salt
(17:37):
in this discussion, what do youthink the major driver is?
If that number is accurate.
What do you think the majordriver is in the last quarter in
particular to really push houseprices up, and I know we
touched on a few possibles.
But what do you think is thereason that if it has gone up so
much?
Speaker 1 (18:01):
what's the short-term
driver of that?
Oh look, I think the higher endof the market uh is performing
stronger than the bottom end ofof the market around the city
and um renovations people.
You know the standard ofhousing is so much higher now.
People spend so much more ontheir homes, doing them up than
what they previously did.
So naturally that is pushingproperty prices up because
(18:21):
they're looking to reclaim themoney they've invested in it.
And then from there, when welook at a generational shift in
house prices, and how did theyget so high compared to previous
generations?
Well, most previous generationswere single income households
(18:44):
and most households now aredouble incomes.
I wouldn't say double incomes,no kids, because it's quite
often a working family where mumand dad do go to work to pay
the mortgage and the child careand the child care.
So what's uh, what'sunfortunate about that is we're
working harder to live in thesame sort of homes that previous
(19:04):
generations did, but both bothparents now need to work to to
make ends meet yeah, youconstantly see that that uh
comparison.
Speaker 3 (19:14):
Right, you know, the
the tire salesman in the 60s had
five kids and a wife who stayedat home, had three cars and a
house, you know, for his wage,which obviously we can't compare
like for like, uh, and yeah,there are many factors that
drive it.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Um, it's certainly
yeah, they lived basic, if you
think about those homes theyjust lived, so much more simpler
than what the currentgeneration do, and the standards
of finishes, multiple bathrooms, the mod cons that are in these
homes, it's all reflected inthe sale price at the end.
(19:49):
Then you can throw in.
On top of all of that, whenyou're looking for reasons, is
the old chestnut which we seemto land on every week open
immigration policy, no newdwellings, price bubble forming.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Yeah, and you know,
chris Minns, delivering three 3D
printed houses a year kind ofthing is not helping the issue.
Just anecdotally, on the pointabout renovations, I was only
discussing with a friend thisweek who lives in Clovelly.
Just about you know I grew upin that area and just how much
it had changed.
And they were saying on theirstreet I think out of 12 or 14
(20:23):
houses they said there was like11 or so are currently
undergoing renovations.
You know it's a prolific 100%,you know where the wealthy is.
These people are capitalisingand they're improving their
standard of living, their size,and work from home changed a lot
of people's opinion of how theylive and if they have the
capacity to increase that space.
And, of course, you're notgoing to spend X amount of money
without recouping X plus fiveright.
(20:44):
It just doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Well, I was in an
appraisal this afternoon and
they said to me do you think thefact that there's a large DA
development application that'sgone in for next door, do you
think that'll impact on ourcampaign?
And I said not really becausethis could happen to any home in
Birchgrove, like all of theseunderdeveloped homes are going
to be renovated at some stage inthe near future and at least
(21:08):
the buyer of your home can seewhat's going in next door.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Oh, and quite often
they can say well, I like the
plan, that's possible for us,it's worth even more to us now,
you know, because there ispotential.
Yeah, very interesting.
On that note, then, given lastweek we spoke about the auction
clearance rate and how it wasactually holding pretty firm and
you know slightly up on whereit had been for the past nine
months or so, how did we end upthis week on what kind of volume
(21:34):
, and has that volume increasedor decreased from last week?
Speaker 1 (21:38):
Look, it pushed up
marginally.
So for the week in Sydney andthis includes midweek auctions
and Saturday auctions, or 800scheduled with a clearance rate
of 53.5%, which is about steadyon last week.
Which is about steady on lastweek, 200 sold prior, 228 sold
under the hammer, 25 soldafterwards, 246, I should say,
(22:08):
were re-advertised as privatetreaty.
So I think the auctionclearance rate would be nudging
60 if they did cut interestrates in July.
And when I say that I feltpersonally they should have cut
interest rates in July.
That's not.
I don't think the propertymarket needed a rate cut in July
.
I think the broader economy, Ithink households did.
We read so much into theauction clearance rate about the
(22:28):
strength of the economy, butthat's just one facet and one
sale process of the propertymarket.
I just think that householdsreally needed that July interest
rate cut, but I accept that theproperty market didn't, because
it's been solidly performingbetween the high 40s and the low
50s and will probably push upinto the 60s if and when the RBA
(22:52):
do cut rates.
What we are seeing in themarket, I must add this is
another one that we're seeing alot of at the moment vendors In
their negotiations, vendors whoare on the market at the moment
are saying but the market'sgoing to rise when they cut
rates, so I'm going to hold off.
We're talking market wrap.
That's real vendor psychologyat the moment.
(23:15):
And what I have cautioned anumber of clients in the last
week or so is that by the timethe RBA cut rates, the spring
stock will come and it will comefairly solidly for the next two
months, whereas stock levelsare fairly tight still at the
moment, given we're about toturn the corner for the final
(23:36):
month of winter.
And you will find morecompeting sellers will come into
the market after the rate cut,not necessarily more buyers.
The buyers that are in themarket might be keener to get a
deal done before this supposedjump in property prices occurs
(23:56):
after the rate cut.
But yeah, vendors are in, Iguess, an emotional or not
entirely logical state, arereally overplaying in their own
mind what this rate cut meansfor property prices in the short
term.
Yes, if you keep cuttinginterest rates over a sustained
(24:16):
period, you will create aproperty boom.
We learned that in 2020 and2021.
But anyone that's looking for aproperty boom in September
after the rate cut in August isgoing to be disappointed.
Speaker 3 (24:29):
I think there's a
couple of really good points in
that answer.
Peter, you're always full oflike good adages and learning
points, but you always say youknow, if you the amount of time
it takes to ramp up a campaignand get ready, if you wait for
the cut, you're too late.
You know because by the timeyou get on market all the other
stock has already arrived.
And you always say that if youyou don't know the top till it
(24:51):
turns, you don't know the bottomtill it rises.
Right, and I think it's exactlythat it could boom off the back
of this rate cut.
But the buyers that are waitingfor the cut are already there
and ready and the stock that'savailable will become what
they're after.
And as you say, you know, weeven compared with last week 800
this week on the auctionschedule, 743 last week, almost
(25:12):
identical clearance rate, almostidentical sort of pre-auction,
post-auction, et cetera numbers.
So the market is very slowlystarting to creep up in terms of
volume.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:21):
And it's holding.
And, as you say, if a rate cutcomes, then those buyers are
just going to say, well, nowI've got a little bit more
strength, let's go.
And spring always is a floodand, as you know, like off the
back of a rate cut, it could bean even bigger tsunami.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
This time around.
And then what?
Well, the two rate cuts thatwe've had so far in 2025, being
February and May they createdreally good selling conditions
in the immediate two to threeweeks after that and then, for
one reason or another, theimpact of the rate cut washed
off, and I think my forecast atthis early stage is you'll see
(25:59):
something similar here in Sydney, where you'll see a couple of
good weeks after the August 12rate cut and then it'll settle
down heading into September.
The weather turns for thebetter and a lot of stock comes
on, and then a bit ofcomplacency builds in the buyers
.
There's a lot around at themoment.
I don't need to get caught up inan auction against a heap of
(26:19):
other buyers.
I'll just I'll just sit backand see what happens.
And even during boom years, themarket always comes back in
terms of clearance rates alittle bit at the peak of spring
, as too much stock comes tomarket at once, and we've had
our strongest listing month ofthe year in July, and it's
(26:43):
people gearing up for the springcampaigns and we're doing our
best to get them to market earlyto take advantage of the tight
stock levels from winter.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Oh well, exactly
because it takes eight weeks to
get ready, you know if you'regoing to prep after the July
rate cut, you really?
Or August rate cut, sorry,you're already, you know,
thinking October to get onmarket.
Look.
Really great chat tonight,peter, some Some interesting
topics and an insightful marketwrap, because I think it is
important for anyone out therewho is potentially thinking
about selling the importance ofwhat A a spring cycle means and
(27:14):
we've talked about that beforeon the podcast but particularly
what a spring surge means in thecontext of falling interest
rates, which you know, with acash rate of 3.85%, if they were
to go to a sizable cut, wemight see mortgage rates come
down to the low fives, if notunder, for the first time in a
long time, and I think,psychologically for me anyway,
(27:34):
that 5% barrier is a tough oneand I think if you get below
that from a mortgage perspective, the confidence goes through
the roof that actually it's notthat bad anymore.
So certainly interesting timesahead.
Indeed, thanks Kieran, thanksPeter, and thanks to everyone
for listening to Current MarketInsights.
We look forward to speakingwith you next time.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Thanks for joining us
on the Current Market Insights
podcast brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate, the
podcast providing real estateinsights you won't find anywhere
else.