September 3, 2025 • 24 mins
Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley analyse the opening weeks of Sydney’s spring property season. Relentless rain has delayed listings, while three recent rate cuts have eased mortgage stress and reduced urgency for some sellers. Despite fewer properties on the market, conditions are strengthening with clearance rates notably higher than last year.
We also discuss:
- The three distinct phases of Sydney’s spring market:
• Mid-August to end of September
• October long weekend to early November
• Melbourne Cup Day to mid-December - Tradespeople in high demand, many booked until 2025, slowing property preparations
- Current market indicators showing rising prices, stronger buyer inquiries, and shorter days on market
- First home buyer incentives beginning October 1st — yet to significantly affect buyer behaviour
- Global inflationary pressures limiting likelihood of further RBA cuts this year
- Signs of buyer regret as some realise they missed the bottom of the property cycle
As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All down, all silent, going, going, going, gone.
So congratulations.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Welcome to the Current Market Insights podcast
brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate.
Each episode we chat with realestate author and industry
leader, peter O'Malley, todiscuss the current property
market conditions and provideinsights to assist you on your
property journey.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hello and welcome to another edition of Current
Market Insights.
I'm your host, kieran O'Brien.
With me is Peter, mr PeterO'Malley Hello.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
G'day, kieran, great to see you.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Great to see you, peter.
I want to spend today's episodegoing through a bit of a spring
market preview, given that atthe time of recording we're now
in the first couple of days ofSeptember, the spring weather's
come out I'm, you know, inshorts and plenty of other
people out across Sydney areenjoying the change.
So I thought it might be a goodidea just to talk through today
(00:58):
what we can expect from thespring market this year in
particular, given that it's beena bit of an unusual time and
what your experience over thelast couple of weeks and then
really the first couple of daysof September have kind of told
you and what indications youhave seen that shape up what the
market's going to be like andhow you think the property
(01:18):
market across Sydney willactually respond in light of all
the kind of things that arehappening across the market.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Thanks, kieran.
Look, I think the first thingto say about this year's spring
market is it's off to a slowerstart than what it was last year
in terms of increasing stocklevels.
And that probably goes back tothe point you just made there
about the weather In Sydney.
For those that weren't here ordon't know, sydney essentially
had four to five weeks ofrelentless rain and there would
(01:45):
have been, and was, a lot ofpeople during that period that
had plans to get their propertyready to come to market painting
the externals, getting thegarden right.
That couldn't do anything,essentially, so we've seen that
feed through to on-marketlistings being down at the
moment as to what it was lastyear.
Last August we had really goodweather through August and it
(02:07):
fed to spring campaignsbeginning sooner than what's
happening now.
Obviously, the weather inSydney is absolutely superb at
the moment and I think you willsee a big jump in stock after
the October long weekend aspeople are able to get their
properties ready for market.
The other thing that I thinkanecdotally have kept stock
(02:30):
levels tighter this year thanlast year is the three interest
rate cuts this year have helpedthose that are mortgage stressed
.
There's less households inmortgage stress now than what
there was this time last year ishow we're feeling and seeing
things.
Anecdotally, so, that's alsohad a suppressant effect on the
(02:51):
number of listings coming to themarket, which is a which is a
really good thing yeah,interesting, uh, interesting
couple of points there.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I wonder, just going to your first point there, about
you expect that the market willsurge in terms of stock on
market after the October longweekend.
Now, is that typically laterthan you would normally see?
The spring market does it, youknow?
Does it usually fall in linewith September's beginning?
The weather comes out and bangall of the stock hits on that
(03:19):
first week or first weekend inSeptember, or is there usually a
little bit of lag?
You know we talk about in theApril market?
There's always, you know, evenearly year, after Australia Day
or potentially after Easter.
There's set almost likearbitrary markers of where you
know flag posts of where themarket will kick off.
Is it usually as late asOctober long weekend or is it a
(03:40):
little bit delayed because ofthat weather?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
No, the October long weekend onwards is what I would
call phase two of the springmarket, kieran.
So each year this is unofficial, of course.
If you think mid-August to theend of September start of the
school holidays there, that'sphase one of the spring market,
which is where we're at now.
Phase two of the spring marketis really the beginning of
October, after the long weekendhere in Sydney, because that's
(04:04):
not a national holiday, but itis a holiday in New South Wales
up until early November andpeople that have a spring
selling mentality will usuallytarget phase two of the spring
season.
That's where stock levels peakand that's where buyers get
complacent that the market'sfalling.
There's too much stock onmarket.
(04:25):
We're just going to wait aroundand wait for a bargain of a
lifetime.
And then what happens by earlyNovember is all the forthcoming
vendors say you can't sell thislate in the year.
This is not a an appropriate oran intelligent time to put our
house on the market.
We're going to wait for the newyear in February and then you
get a third phase of the springmarket which is basically, call
(04:47):
it November, melbourne Cup dayonwards.
Up until mid-December you'llsee a rush of listings to market
from those vendors that don'twant to wait till the following
February, march to sell andsettle their sale.
They'd rather do it in theexisting financial year.
So we're in phase one andthere's no doubt that stock
(05:11):
levels are low, and the lowstock levels, combined with the
third interest rate cut of theyear, is seeing prices rise.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
So we've got an interesting kind of
conglomeration of events.
I think you mentioned theweather's been and it has been
absolutely horrific seeminglyendlessly.
I know you say five weeks, buthonestly it and it has been
absolutely horrific seeminglyendlessly.
I know you say five weeks, buthonestly it feels like it's been
running forever.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah so we don't like to talk about the weather on a
podcast.
We're talking about the weatheras a cliche, but in this
instance it was an extremeweather event that has actually
spilled over and played a rolein how the property market this
year is playing Absolutely and,as you said, that's the reason
we talk about it.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Given your prediction that the October long weekend
is something of a delineator forthe second phase but in this
case really maybe the firstphase of this spring market in
its totality, and also given andwe won't spend too much time on
this, but given that thegovernment's brought forward
kind of incentives or kick-offin October, do you think that
there is likely to be anincreased frenzy?
(06:06):
Firstly because thoseincentives come in from the 1st
of October?
But also, do you think there'sany impact from that new date
impacting sellers who wereconsidering coming through in
the first phase now saying, well, bugger it, we're going to hold
off and be nice and fresh whenthose incentives come in?
Speaker 1 (06:23):
No, not unless those prospective vendors have been
advised that way by their agentRight.
What we're seeing which we'lltalk more about in next week's
episode and the likely impact ofthe home guarantee scheme
that's due to come into effecton October 1, is we're seeing a
lack of understanding in themarketplace about the role and
the positive impact that policycould have on the market.
(06:46):
Now I'm sure that the firsthome buyers out there are
becoming acutely aware of thebenefits on offer and will be
lining up to take advantage ofit and hopefully for them,
escape the clutches of therental market, which are pretty
brutal at the moment, that we'vediscussed all year.
But no, I would not say thatanyone is holding their property
back to coincide with theincentives on offer from October
(07:09):
1 for first home buyers.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Okay and just touching on you, you talked
about those sellers who might belooking to do some simplistic
kind of renovations or touch-upsor getting the property ready
for a sales campaign that mayhave been delayed realistically.
Let's say, someone tried,needed to do external painting
or driveway or, or touch-ups, orgetting the property ready for
a sales campaign that may havebeen delayed realistically.
Let's say, someone needed to doexternal painting or driveway
or whatever it might be, andthey've been pushed back because
of this rain.
Realistically, do those sellersnow have enough time, given the
(07:37):
labour difficulties and costsand blowouts and all these other
delays?
I mean, do those peoplerealistically have a good chance
of getting to market in time tocapture that october long
weekend?
Or has this rain rain delay?
You know, to use a cricket term, has that kind of pushed some
of these people backsubstantially, you know,
potentially into the much laterphase of the year?
Speaker 1 (07:58):
look.
It depends on the scope ofworks and the trades people that
they're working with.
So we found ourselves this yeargetting a lot of properties
ready for market on behalf ofthe vendors and doing cosmetic
makeovers for them, and I wasgoing into situations where the
house was in no condition to bemarketed.
And I would say to the ownersif you start ringing
tradespeople, you're going tofind it difficult enough to get
(08:20):
a solid quote and then you'regoing to be in the
tradesperson's timeline and youwon't be on the market until
March, April next year, givenwhat you've got to do, from
where you're at now to beinginspection ready.
And I've said to probably adozen people this year look,
just if you don't mind, hand itover to me.
We've got a team of people thatwill take care of this for you
(08:42):
and get you market ready clearthe house out, paint it,
recarpet it, put a new kitchenor bathroom in if that's
required, landscape the garden,but get your market ready
without blowing the budget.
So there's not one right answerto the question that you've
just asked.
As a real estate agent, you dopass a lot of work out to trades
(09:05):
people and you expect a certainlevel of service coming back
when you're a individualhomeowner and you want to get
your house ready for market andyou deal with a gardener or a
painter once every five or sevenyears, there might be a big job
that you've got for thatparticular trades person, but
you're actually not ongoing work.
Yeah so you're actually notongoing work.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
So you're a one-off customer, so you don't get the
same priority that repeatcustomers or pipeline customers
get.
And that's where those that aretaking the preparation of the
house on their own shoulderswill find it frustrating.
Because, as I say, in thisenvironment where tradespeople
are at a premium, getting aquotes and effort, never mind
getting the job done getting thejob done on budget and on time.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, and part of the reason I ask that question is,
you know, are there, firstly,any ways that, as an agent, you
can help mitigate thatcircumstance, because it is
expensive at the moment?
We know that that's a legacyfrom COVID, but it is one of
those things, you know.
I wonder, for our sellers, orpotential sellers who might be
listening, who are thinkingabout taking advantage of spring
but have been unsure or beenput off by everything that's
(10:12):
happening around them.
You know what kind of timeframeif they decided they wanted to
sell this week, you know earlySeptember, assuming there's
nothing really needs to be donecan they get on in time to
capture that long weekend surge,or are we still kind of facing
a bit of a protracted period ofreadiness, I guess, to get out
there and capture the market?
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Well, to give you an idea, one of the tradespeople
that we deal with a painter saidPeter, no more work until next
year.
That's it Right, I'm booked outuntil the end of the year.
We're in the classic sillyseason now where everybody's
scrambling to get things done atthe end of the year.
Now, fortunately, we've gotother painters that we can call
(10:53):
into action to replace thatparticular painter, but the big
jobs that we've we've given hima line along with his natural
pipeline of work means that he'sdone for the year yeah in terms
of bookings.
Uh, so it's, it's, it's not easyand um, uh, everything
post-COVID now, as you know,needs to be thought out, planned
(11:15):
and mapped.
If you're going on holidays,you nearly need to pre-plan your
activities, because if you planon doing your activities when
you get to your destination,what do you usually find out?
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Everything's booked out Booked or more expensive
than you thought it wasoriginally, or there's always
some caveat, right.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Yeah, there's a last-minute hike in price
because you're a last-minutecustomer rather than you know a
standby rate or whatever.
So that's the challenge foranyone that suddenly decides
they want to sell but they needto get their property ready is
have I got the ability and thepeople at hand to do so?
And I think for manyprospective vendors out there
that are in that situation youjust outlined speaking to the
(11:53):
local agents and saying, yeah,we want a selling plan, we want
a price on the property, we wanta fair fee, we want to
understand how you'd go aboutselling our property, but we
also need you to help us presentit.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Yeah, well, that's yeah, being upfront and honest
with your agent or you know, allthe agents in your area can
give you that info and giventhen that the market is
naturally a little bit slowerand I know SQM research have
made some commentary thatlisting numbers are down on the
traditional values that we mightsee in August, that phase one
(12:25):
Talking pragmatically then yourexperience over the last couple
of weeks with the terribleweather.
Obviously you can only commentso much on the listings that
you're working with at themoment, but what's your feeling
been, just in terms ofconversations, post rate cut, uh
, you know, post or you know midweather crisis that we've had
coming into the season that,throughout your entire career,
(12:47):
has been the busiest?
What has your take been interms of the, the uh, the
feeling or the vibe on theground from buyers and sellers,
just in terms of the generalsentiment, is it, is it aligned
with what the market is showing?
Do you think or is there a bitof disparity out?
Speaker 1 (13:00):
there.
No, I think it is starting toline up, and it might be a bit
of a concern to the rba howresponsive or reactive the
market has been to the rate cut.
I think we mentioned last weekthat the yeah rates were cut on
July 18, I think it was yeah,but my bank didn't reduce my
rates until August 22.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Yeah, I only got an email.
Yeah, it must have been a weekor two ago with the announcement
.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah, so most people are reporting an enthusiasm for
the rate cut, but that's thesentiment.
The actual rate cut's only just.
You know what are we today,september 2 or 3?
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Well, sentiment, the actual rate cuts.
Only just, you know what are wetoday, september two or three?
Um well, I don't know about you, but I get the email telling me
it's happened and then we'll doit in six weeks or something
you know.
So it may not actually starttill october anyway that's.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
That's that's the letter telling you they're
ripping you off a hundredpercent in a nice way.
You should be happy about it.
Um, so yeah, when we look at umkey in the key market
indicators, um that that give usa sense of how the property
market's performing inquiriesand inspection attendees are up,
bidders per property are up,days on market are down.
(14:03):
The price indexes whether it becotality, the old CoreLogic RP
data, sqm research PropTrackwhat's the domain?
One Property Finder SQMResearch PropTrack.
What's the?
Speaker 3 (14:16):
domain one Property Finder Price Finder.
Price Finder there you go.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
All of those indexes are suggesting that prices and
the market is healthy andpotentially rising and that's
correlating with what we'reseeing on the ground.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
yeah, yeah, so it's certainly an interesting period.
Do you think that the buyersentiment is going to shift in
the coming weeks in anticipationof the government's incentives?
Obviously it only impacts asmall portion of the market, but
do you think and again, wewon't spend much time on this,
given we'll do another episodenext week about it in total but
(14:50):
do you think that that sentimentis likely to get a little bit
more kind of aggressive or firmfrom the buyer side as there is
a bit of government stimulus andsupport to help people get into
the market?
Do you think that comes withthis almost inflated sense of
you know confidence or you knowcertainty, or about their
ability to purchase?
That may or may not bejustified.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
No, I'm not seeing a movement at the moment.
I think it will come, butthere's not a movement where I
would encourage anyone to thinkthat there's going to be a
different or a new marketenvironment on October 1.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Yeah, okay, I asked the question because I listen to
people all around me all thetime and, anecdotally, I feel
like I'm hearing more and moreconversations just in my
periphery, of people that I kindof engage with either socially
or professionally havingconversations with agents about
purchasing property, and I feellike the same people weren't
having conversations threemonths ago, but now, almost in
(15:46):
anticipation, I'm just hearingall these peripheral
conversations about oh well, yes, we'll come and look at this
now we can do this, or you know,I feel like there's this and it
might be the market segmentthat I associate with but well
that that feeds into what I justsaid about inquiries and
inspection numbers are up, butI'm not.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
I'm not seeing the link between an increase inquiry
inspection numbers because ofthe forthcoming changes to the
you know, the home guaranteescheme introduced by the federal
government.
I think once the market fullyunderstands the target market
being first home buyers, once itfully understands the magnitude
(16:23):
of what the government haveimplemented, um and the carrot
that's on on offer there, Ithink they'll go for it.
But it just doesn't look likein that segment of the market
it's going to happen this sideof christmas.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
No, fair, fair well, given that we uh, we've touched
on some of the market, is goingto happen this side of Christmas
, no, fair, fair.
Well, given that we've touchedon some of the kind of practical
elements of the spring market,the delays, what you're seeing
on the ground, if you can, whydon't we have a bit of a look at
the numbers that SQM Researchhave put out this week?
You know, for our listeners whoare new or maybe don't listen
to us all that often we referquite a lot to louis christopher
(16:56):
and sqm researchers workbecause they're quite a quite an
articulate and deliberate house.
That report, really, what isthe true data and we use them as
a bit of a yardstick to measurehow the market is performing.
So, given that we're suggestingit's a slower start to spring
than usual and you knowsentiment is strong but it's
it's not as strong as it couldbe what is the the data showing
(17:17):
us, peter?
Speaker 1 (17:18):
uh, look, when we say it's a slower start to spring,
that's spring on spring.
Yep, uh, year on year, for forum the last weekend in august or
um the first weekend inseptember, as it will be this
this weekend, of course, and thereason I make that point is
that last weekend was a jump inauction numbers from around 800
(17:41):
the week before to 1,123properties in the last week went
to auction in Sydney.
So week on week that's amassive jump, but year on year
it's actually a pullback inlistings on market.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
So I can give you the exact figures actually.
So, looking back at so the weekending 1 September 2024, so
very you know, basically thesame weekend total auctions were
over 1,200 this time last yearand obviously 1,100 odd.
So not I mean not an enormousdisparity, but still a disparity
.
But I think one of the bigthings was the auction clearance
(18:17):
rate was under 50% last year inthe 48 mark which, if our
listeners remember, that wasabout the time that that
terrible run really started,with the auction clearance rates
absolutely plummeting in August.
So it is certainly back on theyear before, pretty consistently
actually across all thesegments, the time of week, et
(18:38):
cetera.
It is quite a drop back fromthe year before with also so
what you've outlined?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
there is maybe a 10% drop.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Nearly a 10% drop.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Probably just over 10% yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Yeah, yeah, in the number of properties going to
auction but conversely, theauction clearance rate for this
weekend to auction, butconversely the auction clearance
rate for this weekend, uh, weekjust gone was 56.4.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
where this weekend last year was in the high 40s 48
, so about 10 higher clearancerate as well, and not to the
other thing not to uh overlookis this we report on auction
clearance rate because that's amuch uh more kind of
tangentially stat.
There is also plenty of privatetreaty properties out there.
There's other things on themarket there are.
Total listings are alsodifferent to this number.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
So, again, this is not scientific.
But if we go to LouisChristopher's assessment of the
market, he says we begin torecord price falls at and below
50% auction clearance rate.
Yep, and this time last yearwe're running at a 48% auction
clearance rate, which, you quitecorrectly point out, did not
break 50% until they cut ratesin February 2025, which was
(19:48):
pretty we talked about it everyweek.
It blew us away Six-monthstretch where the auction
clearance rate was sub 50%.
But here we are now where it's.
You know it is climbingsteadily and it's 56.4% for the
last week and I think thatshould go higher in the weeks
ahead as more buyers come out toplay.
We always like to just give ourlisteners a little bit of a
(20:11):
breakdown about homes sold underthe hammer versus auction
campaigns sold prior.
So last week, 323 homes soldprior to auction with 310 sold
under the hammer.
So that's a bit of a breakoutstat there where selling prior
to auction for whatever reasonwhether it was a standout bid or
(20:32):
not enough competition to takeit all the way to auction was
the preference.
So all of that suggests not abooming market but absolutely
improving market.
And as we've said in ourSeptember newsletters and I'm
already seeing this at openhouses some buyers are annoyed
(20:53):
annoyed at themselves, becausethey're looking at the crowds at
open houses and seeing theresults that are being achieved
and they're realising they'veprobably missed the bottom of
the cycle because propertyprices are moving off their lows
from late 2024, early 2025.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Yeah, good observation, peter.
My only final question for youthen, as we wrap up today given
that the uh auction clearancerate let's compare with last
year is, you know, roughly 10stronger than this time last
year uh, but stock is slightlydown do you think, with the
coming weeks and the likelyincrease in stock, do you think
that the market is well enoughpositioned that that clearance
(21:34):
rate will hold, hold or climbabove 50%, or do you think that
there might be some correctionthere as more stock comes on and
dilutes the market?
You know, not not exponentially, but has some dilutionary
effect on numbers?
Speaker 1 (21:47):
oh look, unless there's an event and I think you
need to have spoken about theRBA statement over the last few
months and I'm and I bring thatback up now because I'm watching
what's happening on moneymarkets there's lots of, there's
a vibe there happening in theequity markets and the bond
market that can't be ignored.
(22:07):
So, as we speak today, theAustralian share market's down
2% for some reason.
So let's say, inflationglobally is rising again.
That's the other point.
Last night european unionreleased their their inflation
numbers.
It's going back up.
The uk is going back upinexplicably.
The us is going back up buttrump is bullying jerome powell
(22:29):
to cut rates at a time thatinflation is trending up, which
is why gold is going through theroof.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
I don't know if you're following the gold price,
are you?
Speaker 3 (22:38):
No, I just I occasionally look because my
father's still got gold stashedaway in his safe.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
You're a smart man, he's.
But yeah, the gold price isgoing up on the back of Trump.
You know has essentially JeromePowell's orbit said he's going
to cut rates at some stage inthe near future, even as
inflation's going up.
So you know the gold price ishitting all-time highs this week
(23:04):
at a time where share marketsare coming off.
But if the economies stay ontheir track and there's not a
major event, I think you'll seeauction clearance rates go
through 60% and I think you willcontinue to see price rises.
And because all of that ishappening, I don't think you
will see another interest ratecut this year.
(23:24):
The only way you'll see aninterest rate cut this year, in
my view from the RBA is ifthere's an event that they're
alluding to in their statementsglobally and they feel like they
need to step in and rescue theAustralian economy.
I'm now seeing much clearer.
I didn't quite see it at thetime in July, but now that the
inflation is starting to pop inthose economies that have been
(23:46):
more aggressive with their ratecuts in the last few months than
the RBA were, I'm now seeingwhy they held in July, because
underlying inflation whilestatistically it might be where
it needs to be is ready to goagain.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
Well, that, to me, just really highlights what we
often talk about with the RBAsthat they have access to data
that we could only dream of, andwhile we can sit here and
nitpick all of their commentsand say it's ridiculous.
they didn't cut or do this or gofurther.
We've always underlined andsaid actually they are seeing
things we could only imagine,and you know that's a perfect
example.
Look, really, really greattopic today, peter.
(24:22):
The spring market is always ahot one in real estate and I
think this year it started a bitslow potentially, but I expect
that we will see a bit of a kick, as always.
I appreciate you coming in andhaving a chat with us here on
the podcast.
Thanks very much, kieran.
Thank you and thanks toeveryone for listening to
Current Market Insights.
We look forward to speakingwith you next time.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Thanks for joining us on the Current Market Insights
podcast brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate, the
podcast providing real estateinsights you won't find anywhere
else.
All down, all silent, going, going, going, gone.
So congratulations.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Welcome to the Current Market Insights podcast
brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate.
Each episode we chat with realestate author and industry
leader, peter O'Malley, todiscuss the current property
market conditions and provideinsights to assist you on your
property journey.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Hello and welcome to another edition of Current
Market Insights.
I'm your host, kieran O'Brien.
With me is Peter, mr PeterO'Malley Hello.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
G'day, kieran, great to see you.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Great to see you, peter.
I want to spend today's episodegoing through a bit of a spring
market preview, given that atthe time of recording we're now
in the first couple of days ofSeptember, the spring weather's
come out I'm, you know, inshorts and plenty of other
people out across Sydney areenjoying the change.
So I thought it might be a goodidea just to talk through today
(00:58):
what we can expect from thespring market this year in
particular, given that it's beena bit of an unusual time and
what your experience over thelast couple of weeks and then
really the first couple of daysof September have kind of told
you and what indications youhave seen that shape up what the
market's going to be like andhow you think the property
(01:18):
market across Sydney willactually respond in light of all
the kind of things that arehappening across the market.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Thanks, kieran.
Look, I think the first thingto say about this year's spring
market is it's off to a slowerstart than what it was last year
in terms of increasing stocklevels.
And that probably goes back tothe point you just made there
about the weather In Sydney.
For those that weren't here ordon't know, sydney essentially
had four to five weeks ofrelentless rain and there would
(01:45):
have been, and was, a lot ofpeople during that period that
had plans to get their propertyready to come to market painting
the externals, getting thegarden right.
That couldn't do anything,essentially, so we've seen that
feed through to on-marketlistings being down at the
moment as to what it was lastyear.
Last August we had really goodweather through August and it
(02:07):
fed to spring campaignsbeginning sooner than what's
happening now.
Obviously, the weather inSydney is absolutely superb at
the moment and I think you willsee a big jump in stock after
the October long weekend aspeople are able to get their
properties ready for market.
The other thing that I thinkanecdotally have kept stock
(02:30):
levels tighter this year thanlast year is the three interest
rate cuts this year have helpedthose that are mortgage stressed
.
There's less households inmortgage stress now than what
there was this time last year ishow we're feeling and seeing
things.
Anecdotally, so, that's alsohad a suppressant effect on the
(02:51):
number of listings coming to themarket, which is a which is a
really good thing yeah,interesting, uh, interesting
couple of points there.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I wonder, just going to your first point there, about
you expect that the market willsurge in terms of stock on
market after the October longweekend.
Now, is that typically laterthan you would normally see?
The spring market does it, youknow?
Does it usually fall in linewith September's beginning?
The weather comes out and bangall of the stock hits on that
(03:19):
first week or first weekend inSeptember, or is there usually a
little bit of lag?
You know we talk about in theApril market?
There's always, you know, evenearly year, after Australia Day
or potentially after Easter.
There's set almost likearbitrary markers of where you
know flag posts of where themarket will kick off.
Is it usually as late asOctober long weekend or is it a
(03:40):
little bit delayed because ofthat weather?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
No, the October long weekend onwards is what I would
call phase two of the springmarket, kieran.
So each year this is unofficial, of course.
If you think mid-August to theend of September start of the
school holidays there, that'sphase one of the spring market,
which is where we're at now.
Phase two of the spring marketis really the beginning of
October, after the long weekendhere in Sydney, because that's
(04:04):
not a national holiday, but itis a holiday in New South Wales
up until early November andpeople that have a spring
selling mentality will usuallytarget phase two of the spring
season.
That's where stock levels peakand that's where buyers get
complacent that the market'sfalling.
There's too much stock onmarket.
(04:25):
We're just going to wait aroundand wait for a bargain of a
lifetime.
And then what happens by earlyNovember is all the forthcoming
vendors say you can't sell thislate in the year.
This is not a an appropriate oran intelligent time to put our
house on the market.
We're going to wait for the newyear in February and then you
get a third phase of the springmarket which is basically, call
(04:47):
it November, melbourne Cup dayonwards.
Up until mid-December you'llsee a rush of listings to market
from those vendors that don'twant to wait till the following
February, march to sell andsettle their sale.
They'd rather do it in theexisting financial year.
So we're in phase one andthere's no doubt that stock
(05:11):
levels are low, and the lowstock levels, combined with the
third interest rate cut of theyear, is seeing prices rise.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
So we've got an interesting kind of
conglomeration of events.
I think you mentioned theweather's been and it has been
absolutely horrific seeminglyendlessly.
I know you say five weeks, buthonestly it and it has been
absolutely horrific seeminglyendlessly.
I know you say five weeks, buthonestly it feels like it's been
running forever.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah so we don't like to talk about the weather on a
podcast.
We're talking about the weatheras a cliche, but in this
instance it was an extremeweather event that has actually
spilled over and played a rolein how the property market this
year is playing Absolutely and,as you said, that's the reason
we talk about it.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Given your prediction that the October long weekend
is something of a delineator forthe second phase but in this
case really maybe the firstphase of this spring market in
its totality, and also given andwe won't spend too much time on
this, but given that thegovernment's brought forward
kind of incentives or kick-offin October, do you think that
there is likely to be anincreased frenzy?
(06:06):
Firstly because thoseincentives come in from the 1st
of October?
But also, do you think there'sany impact from that new date
impacting sellers who wereconsidering coming through in
the first phase now saying, well, bugger it, we're going to hold
off and be nice and fresh whenthose incentives come in?
Speaker 1 (06:23):
No, not unless those prospective vendors have been
advised that way by their agentRight.
What we're seeing which we'lltalk more about in next week's
episode and the likely impact ofthe home guarantee scheme
that's due to come into effecton October 1, is we're seeing a
lack of understanding in themarketplace about the role and
the positive impact that policycould have on the market.
(06:46):
Now I'm sure that the firsthome buyers out there are
becoming acutely aware of thebenefits on offer and will be
lining up to take advantage ofit and hopefully for them,
escape the clutches of therental market, which are pretty
brutal at the moment, that we'vediscussed all year.
But no, I would not say thatanyone is holding their property
back to coincide with theincentives on offer from October
(07:09):
1 for first home buyers.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Okay and just touching on you, you talked
about those sellers who might belooking to do some simplistic
kind of renovations or touch-upsor getting the property ready
for a sales campaign that mayhave been delayed realistically.
Let's say, someone tried,needed to do external painting
or driveway or, or touch-ups, orgetting the property ready for
a sales campaign that may havebeen delayed realistically.
Let's say, someone needed to doexternal painting or driveway
or whatever it might be, andthey've been pushed back because
of this rain.
Realistically, do those sellersnow have enough time, given the
(07:37):
labour difficulties and costsand blowouts and all these other
delays?
I mean, do those peoplerealistically have a good chance
of getting to market in time tocapture that october long
weekend?
Or has this rain rain delay?
You know, to use a cricket term, has that kind of pushed some
of these people backsubstantially, you know,
potentially into the much laterphase of the year?
Speaker 1 (07:58):
look.
It depends on the scope ofworks and the trades people that
they're working with.
So we found ourselves this yeargetting a lot of properties
ready for market on behalf ofthe vendors and doing cosmetic
makeovers for them, and I wasgoing into situations where the
house was in no condition to bemarketed.
And I would say to the ownersif you start ringing
tradespeople, you're going tofind it difficult enough to get
(08:20):
a solid quote and then you'regoing to be in the
tradesperson's timeline and youwon't be on the market until
March, April next year, givenwhat you've got to do, from
where you're at now to beinginspection ready.
And I've said to probably adozen people this year look,
just if you don't mind, hand itover to me.
We've got a team of people thatwill take care of this for you
(08:42):
and get you market ready clearthe house out, paint it,
recarpet it, put a new kitchenor bathroom in if that's
required, landscape the garden,but get your market ready
without blowing the budget.
So there's not one right answerto the question that you've
just asked.
As a real estate agent, you dopass a lot of work out to trades
(09:05):
people and you expect a certainlevel of service coming back
when you're a individualhomeowner and you want to get
your house ready for market andyou deal with a gardener or a
painter once every five or sevenyears, there might be a big job
that you've got for thatparticular trades person, but
you're actually not ongoing work.
Yeah so you're actually notongoing work.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
So you're a one-off customer, so you don't get the
same priority that repeatcustomers or pipeline customers
get.
And that's where those that aretaking the preparation of the
house on their own shoulderswill find it frustrating.
Because, as I say, in thisenvironment where tradespeople
are at a premium, getting aquotes and effort, never mind
getting the job done getting thejob done on budget and on time.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, and part of the reason I ask that question is,
you know, are there, firstly,any ways that, as an agent, you
can help mitigate thatcircumstance, because it is
expensive at the moment?
We know that that's a legacyfrom COVID, but it is one of
those things, you know.
I wonder, for our sellers, orpotential sellers who might be
listening, who are thinkingabout taking advantage of spring
but have been unsure or beenput off by everything that's
(10:12):
happening around them.
You know what kind of timeframeif they decided they wanted to
sell this week, you know earlySeptember, assuming there's
nothing really needs to be donecan they get on in time to
capture that long weekend surge,or are we still kind of facing
a bit of a protracted period ofreadiness, I guess, to get out
there and capture the market?
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Well, to give you an idea, one of the tradespeople
that we deal with a painter saidPeter, no more work until next
year.
That's it Right, I'm booked outuntil the end of the year.
We're in the classic sillyseason now where everybody's
scrambling to get things done atthe end of the year.
Now, fortunately, we've gotother painters that we can call
(10:53):
into action to replace thatparticular painter, but the big
jobs that we've we've given hima line along with his natural
pipeline of work means that he'sdone for the year yeah in terms
of bookings.
Uh, so it's, it's, it's not easyand um, uh, everything
post-COVID now, as you know,needs to be thought out, planned
(11:15):
and mapped.
If you're going on holidays,you nearly need to pre-plan your
activities, because if you planon doing your activities when
you get to your destination,what do you usually find out?
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Everything's booked out Booked or more expensive
than you thought it wasoriginally, or there's always
some caveat, right.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Yeah, there's a last-minute hike in price
because you're a last-minutecustomer rather than you know a
standby rate or whatever.
So that's the challenge foranyone that suddenly decides
they want to sell but they needto get their property ready is
have I got the ability and thepeople at hand to do so?
And I think for manyprospective vendors out there
that are in that situation youjust outlined speaking to the
(11:53):
local agents and saying, yeah,we want a selling plan, we want
a price on the property, we wanta fair fee, we want to
understand how you'd go aboutselling our property, but we
also need you to help us presentit.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Yeah, well, that's yeah, being upfront and honest
with your agent or you know, allthe agents in your area can
give you that info and giventhen that the market is
naturally a little bit slowerand I know SQM research have
made some commentary thatlisting numbers are down on the
traditional values that we mightsee in August, that phase one
(12:25):
Talking pragmatically then yourexperience over the last couple
of weeks with the terribleweather.
Obviously you can only commentso much on the listings that
you're working with at themoment, but what's your feeling
been, just in terms ofconversations, post rate cut, uh
, you know, post or you know midweather crisis that we've had
coming into the season that,throughout your entire career,
(12:47):
has been the busiest?
What has your take been interms of the, the uh, the
feeling or the vibe on theground from buyers and sellers,
just in terms of the generalsentiment, is it, is it aligned
with what the market is showing?
Do you think or is there a bitof disparity out?
Speaker 1 (13:00):
there.
No, I think it is starting toline up, and it might be a bit
of a concern to the rba howresponsive or reactive the
market has been to the rate cut.
I think we mentioned last weekthat the yeah rates were cut on
July 18, I think it was yeah,but my bank didn't reduce my
rates until August 22.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Yeah, I only got an email.
Yeah, it must have been a weekor two ago with the announcement
.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah, so most people are reporting an enthusiasm for
the rate cut, but that's thesentiment.
The actual rate cut's only just.
You know what are we today,september 2 or 3?
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Well, sentiment, the actual rate cuts.
Only just, you know what are wetoday, september two or three?
Um well, I don't know about you, but I get the email telling me
it's happened and then we'll doit in six weeks or something
you know.
So it may not actually starttill october anyway that's.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
That's that's the letter telling you they're
ripping you off a hundredpercent in a nice way.
You should be happy about it.
Um, so yeah, when we look at umkey in the key market
indicators, um that that give usa sense of how the property
market's performing inquiriesand inspection attendees are up,
bidders per property are up,days on market are down.
(14:03):
The price indexes whether it becotality, the old CoreLogic RP
data, sqm research PropTrackwhat's the domain?
One Property Finder SQMResearch PropTrack.
What's the?
Speaker 3 (14:16):
domain one Property Finder Price Finder.
Price Finder there you go.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
All of those indexes are suggesting that prices and
the market is healthy andpotentially rising and that's
correlating with what we'reseeing on the ground.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
yeah, yeah, so it's certainly an interesting period.
Do you think that the buyersentiment is going to shift in
the coming weeks in anticipationof the government's incentives?
Obviously it only impacts asmall portion of the market, but
do you think and again, wewon't spend much time on this,
given we'll do another episodenext week about it in total but
(14:50):
do you think that that sentimentis likely to get a little bit
more kind of aggressive or firmfrom the buyer side as there is
a bit of government stimulus andsupport to help people get into
the market?
Do you think that comes withthis almost inflated sense of
you know confidence or you knowcertainty, or about their
ability to purchase?
That may or may not bejustified.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
No, I'm not seeing a movement at the moment.
I think it will come, butthere's not a movement where I
would encourage anyone to thinkthat there's going to be a
different or a new marketenvironment on October 1.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Yeah, okay, I asked the question because I listen to
people all around me all thetime and, anecdotally, I feel
like I'm hearing more and moreconversations just in my
periphery, of people that I kindof engage with either socially
or professionally havingconversations with agents about
purchasing property, and I feellike the same people weren't
having conversations threemonths ago, but now, almost in
(15:46):
anticipation, I'm just hearingall these peripheral
conversations about oh well, yes, we'll come and look at this
now we can do this, or you know,I feel like there's this and it
might be the market segmentthat I associate with but well
that that feeds into what I justsaid about inquiries and
inspection numbers are up, butI'm not.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
I'm not seeing the link between an increase inquiry
inspection numbers because ofthe forthcoming changes to the
you know, the home guaranteescheme introduced by the federal
government.
I think once the market fullyunderstands the target market
being first home buyers, once itfully understands the magnitude
(16:23):
of what the government haveimplemented, um and the carrot
that's on on offer there, Ithink they'll go for it.
But it just doesn't look likein that segment of the market
it's going to happen this sideof christmas.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
No, fair, fair well, given that we uh, we've touched
on some of the market, is goingto happen this side of Christmas
, no, fair, fair.
Well, given that we've touchedon some of the kind of practical
elements of the spring market,the delays, what you're seeing
on the ground, if you can, whydon't we have a bit of a look at
the numbers that SQM Researchhave put out this week?
You know, for our listeners whoare new or maybe don't listen
to us all that often we referquite a lot to louis christopher
(16:56):
and sqm researchers workbecause they're quite a quite an
articulate and deliberate house.
That report, really, what isthe true data and we use them as
a bit of a yardstick to measurehow the market is performing.
So, given that we're suggestingit's a slower start to spring
than usual and you knowsentiment is strong but it's
it's not as strong as it couldbe what is the the data showing
(17:17):
us, peter?
Speaker 1 (17:18):
uh, look, when we say it's a slower start to spring,
that's spring on spring.
Yep, uh, year on year, for forum the last weekend in august or
um the first weekend inseptember, as it will be this
this weekend, of course, and thereason I make that point is
that last weekend was a jump inauction numbers from around 800
(17:41):
the week before to 1,123properties in the last week went
to auction in Sydney.
So week on week that's amassive jump, but year on year
it's actually a pullback inlistings on market.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
So I can give you the exact figures actually.
So, looking back at so the weekending 1 September 2024, so
very you know, basically thesame weekend total auctions were
over 1,200 this time last yearand obviously 1,100 odd.
So not I mean not an enormousdisparity, but still a disparity
.
But I think one of the bigthings was the auction clearance
(18:17):
rate was under 50% last year inthe 48 mark which, if our
listeners remember, that wasabout the time that that
terrible run really started,with the auction clearance rates
absolutely plummeting in August.
So it is certainly back on theyear before, pretty consistently
actually across all thesegments, the time of week, et
(18:38):
cetera.
It is quite a drop back fromthe year before with also so
what you've outlined?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
there is maybe a 10% drop.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Nearly a 10% drop.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Probably just over 10% yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Yeah, yeah, in the number of properties going to
auction but conversely, theauction clearance rate for this
weekend to auction, butconversely the auction clearance
rate for this weekend, uh, weekjust gone was 56.4.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
where this weekend last year was in the high 40s 48
, so about 10 higher clearancerate as well, and not to the
other thing not to uh overlookis this we report on auction
clearance rate because that's amuch uh more kind of
tangentially stat.
There is also plenty of privatetreaty properties out there.
There's other things on themarket there are.
Total listings are alsodifferent to this number.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
So, again, this is not scientific.
But if we go to LouisChristopher's assessment of the
market, he says we begin torecord price falls at and below
50% auction clearance rate.
Yep, and this time last yearwe're running at a 48% auction
clearance rate, which, you quitecorrectly point out, did not
break 50% until they cut ratesin February 2025, which was
(19:48):
pretty we talked about it everyweek.
It blew us away Six-monthstretch where the auction
clearance rate was sub 50%.
But here we are now where it's.
You know it is climbingsteadily and it's 56.4% for the
last week and I think thatshould go higher in the weeks
ahead as more buyers come out toplay.
We always like to just give ourlisteners a little bit of a
(20:11):
breakdown about homes sold underthe hammer versus auction
campaigns sold prior.
So last week, 323 homes soldprior to auction with 310 sold
under the hammer.
So that's a bit of a breakoutstat there where selling prior
to auction for whatever reasonwhether it was a standout bid or
(20:32):
not enough competition to takeit all the way to auction was
the preference.
So all of that suggests not abooming market but absolutely
improving market.
And as we've said in ourSeptember newsletters and I'm
already seeing this at openhouses some buyers are annoyed
(20:53):
annoyed at themselves, becausethey're looking at the crowds at
open houses and seeing theresults that are being achieved
and they're realising they'veprobably missed the bottom of
the cycle because propertyprices are moving off their lows
from late 2024, early 2025.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Yeah, good observation, peter.
My only final question for youthen, as we wrap up today given
that the uh auction clearancerate let's compare with last
year is, you know, roughly 10stronger than this time last
year uh, but stock is slightlydown do you think, with the
coming weeks and the likelyincrease in stock, do you think
that the market is well enoughpositioned that that clearance
(21:34):
rate will hold, hold or climbabove 50%, or do you think that
there might be some correctionthere as more stock comes on and
dilutes the market?
You know, not not exponentially, but has some dilutionary
effect on numbers?
Speaker 1 (21:47):
oh look, unless there's an event and I think you
need to have spoken about theRBA statement over the last few
months and I'm and I bring thatback up now because I'm watching
what's happening on moneymarkets there's lots of, there's
a vibe there happening in theequity markets and the bond
market that can't be ignored.
(22:07):
So, as we speak today, theAustralian share market's down
2% for some reason.
So let's say, inflationglobally is rising again.
That's the other point.
Last night european unionreleased their their inflation
numbers.
It's going back up.
The uk is going back upinexplicably.
The us is going back up buttrump is bullying jerome powell
(22:29):
to cut rates at a time thatinflation is trending up, which
is why gold is going through theroof.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
I don't know if you're following the gold price,
are you?
Speaker 3 (22:38):
No, I just I occasionally look because my
father's still got gold stashedaway in his safe.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
You're a smart man, he's.
But yeah, the gold price isgoing up on the back of Trump.
You know has essentially JeromePowell's orbit said he's going
to cut rates at some stage inthe near future, even as
inflation's going up.
So you know the gold price ishitting all-time highs this week
(23:04):
at a time where share marketsare coming off.
But if the economies stay ontheir track and there's not a
major event, I think you'll seeauction clearance rates go
through 60% and I think you willcontinue to see price rises.
And because all of that ishappening, I don't think you
will see another interest ratecut this year.
(23:24):
The only way you'll see aninterest rate cut this year, in
my view from the RBA is ifthere's an event that they're
alluding to in their statementsglobally and they feel like they
need to step in and rescue theAustralian economy.
I'm now seeing much clearer.
I didn't quite see it at thetime in July, but now that the
inflation is starting to pop inthose economies that have been
(23:46):
more aggressive with their ratecuts in the last few months than
the RBA were, I'm now seeingwhy they held in July, because
underlying inflation whilestatistically it might be where
it needs to be is ready to goagain.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
Well, that, to me, just really highlights what we
often talk about with the RBAsthat they have access to data
that we could only dream of, andwhile we can sit here and
nitpick all of their commentsand say it's ridiculous.
they didn't cut or do this or gofurther.
We've always underlined andsaid actually they are seeing
things we could only imagine,and you know that's a perfect
example.
Look, really, really greattopic today, peter.
(24:22):
The spring market is always ahot one in real estate and I
think this year it started a bitslow potentially, but I expect
that we will see a bit of a kick, as always.
I appreciate you coming in andhaving a chat with us here on
the podcast.
Thanks very much, kieran.
Thank you and thanks toeveryone for listening to
Current Market Insights.
We look forward to speakingwith you next time.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Thanks for joining us on the Current Market Insights
podcast brought to you by HarrisPartners Real Estate, the
podcast providing real estateinsights you won't find anywhere
else.
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