December 11, 2024 • 26 mins
In this insightful discussion, we discuss:
- the strong performance of Sydney apartments in 2024
- population trends across the country and the role they play in property prices
- the annual growth of Sydney compared with other capital cities
- the risks and opportunities posed by the market conditions heading into 2025
- the subtle decline in rental prices
- the moderation in the performance of prestige real estate
- plus much more....
Tune in now to get the best available market insights backed by compelling data and commentary by Australia's best property analyst Louis Christopher. Proudly bought to you by Harris Partners Real Estate
As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to Talking Property.
Today, I'm joined byAustralia's best property
analyst, louis Christopher, aswe dissect and review the 2024
Sydney property market.
Louis, thanks for joining us.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
G'day, peter, nice to be with you once again.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Louis, we caught up mid-year and the Sydney market
was actually outperformingexpectations at that stage.
We were both very surprised athow well the market was
travelling, but it's lookinglike it was a year of two halves
where the market really changedaround August, didn't it?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Yes, it did.
So I think from the start ofthe spring selling season we
noticed a real decline inauction clearance rates.
As to a real decline in auctionclearance rates and, over and
above that, stock on market orlistings started to accumulate
based on a rise in olderlistings.
So when you start seeing a risein older listings, it generally
is a big sign that the market'sslowing down.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, so just confirming the spring selling
season actually starts in August, because that's when the
auction clearance rates on yournumbers dip below 50%.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Essentially, that's when you start to see more
listings in the marketplaceahead of September, but there is
actually a high number ofscheduled activity that actually
occurs in August.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, so I was following the auction clearance
rates that you put out eachTuesday and correct me if I'm
wrong, but I think we onlycracked higher than 50% twice
since early August.
Is that your understanding ofthe clearance?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
rate.
I think you may well be right.
Importantly, the trend's beenvery obvious.
The trend has been weakeningand weakening auction clearance
rates for Sydney,notwithstanding that the very
last weeks of the spring sellingseason, in December, we did
notice a slight pickup in theauction clearance rate, not to
(01:53):
go over 50% though.
So I think, as the year hasended, while I think there's
perhaps been some buyers havecome in and potentially seen an
opportunity, it's been a weakmarket.
It's been increasingly abuyer's market.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
And as those properties didn't move and
failed that auction, did theysell after the auction or did
they go to the sideline?
Have we got any sort of senseof what happened there?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
They're mainly going to private treaty.
So they're being re-advertisedas private treaty or they're
being withdrawn for the propertyseason.
That's mainly what's happening.
Yes, you do have some that sellafter the event, no doubt about
that, but the bulk of theproperties have been
re-advertised as private treaty.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
And the ones that are withdrawn?
Do we expect to see higherlistings going into 2025 as a
result of new year stockcompeting with last year's stock
?
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I think we will.
So more often than not you seethese properties get withdrawn
over the Christmas New Yearperiod.
Vendors then take stock interms of what they really wish
to achieve with their propertyand then a fairly high
percentage of those withdraw andyou start to see come back into
the market in the March quarter.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Great Look.
Let's bring up this slide here,which is recapping your 2024
predictions.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
For the Sydney market specifically, which, would you
say, turned out to be the mostaccurate?
Louis?
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Definitely our scenario three.
I mean, as you know, we like tohang our hat on our base case
scenario, but scenario three isthe one that's generally come in
and that was one where weforecasted stronger population
growth than our base case andthat's what we believe
fundamentally has happened.
The population in 2024 hasexpanded once again nationwide
(03:42):
by north of 500,000 people.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
So the government made a big announcement very
early in the year that they werepulling back on the number of
people they let into the country.
Did they break that promise?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
I think they have.
When you look at the netoverseas arrival data, which is
more timely data than theoverall net immigration data,
it's showing there's been nomajor slowdown.
There's been a slight slowdownover 2023, but not a material
slowdown and far less of aslowdown than what federal
(04:13):
budget actually anticipated,what the government suggested
would happen and what our ownforecast suggests would happen.
So, yeah, it's been a strongerthan expected year on the
population front.
Would happen.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
So yeah, it's been a stronger than expected year on
the population front.
Louis, these are dwellingpredictions.
They're not apartments orhouses dwelling price
predictions.
So where did we come in forhouses and apartments
respectively, in 2024?
Speaker 2 (04:46):
So at the national level, overall dwelling price
increases are coming in at about4% and that's been
predominantly driven by bigrises in Perth, Brisbane and
Adelaide as well.
And now the split betweenhouses and units it's been
actually very close and I wouldactually argue that houses have
just outperformed units.
But it depends on which capitalcity we actually discuss.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Yeah, and Sydney specifically.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Sydney on our numbers , units have done a little bit
better than houses.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Okay, when was the last time apartments
outperformed houses in Sydney?
Speaker 2 (05:14):
2018.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Yeah, so quite some time.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Yeah, we're noticing that on cyclical downturns in
Sydney and it is the case forMelbourne cyclical downturns in
Sydney and it is the case forMelbourne that units tend to be
a pretty good defensive play indownturns, whereas in upturns
houses beat units, and is thatbecause they're cheaper?
I think they're cheaper.
Yes, it is an affordabilityfactor.
Now, when we speak of units,we're talking about existing
(05:40):
units, the off-the-plan stock noway that always underperforms,
but existing units duringdownturns we're noticing in more
recent times it's outperforming.
So it is an affordabilityfactor.
It's also a supply factorrelative to underlying demand
increases.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
So inflation's been running at about 3%, dropping in
very recent times but averagedaround that during the year.
Sydney house prices have put ona little bit more than 3%,
would you say.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
So for the course of 2024, sydney house prices will
look.
They look like it'll finish theyear at about plus 3%.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
So it's kept pace with inflation, but overall not
done much better than that.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Yeah, and I think we need to look at, as you spoke of
earlier, a tale of two halves.
So the first half of the yearis where most of the gains in
Sydney occurred, but really, onour numbers, from about
September onwards we've beenrecording housing price falls in
Sydney.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Louis, I'll just bring up the next slide and I'll
just show our audience todaywhat has happened here with the
auction clearance rate, and youcan see here that the trend line
is down and the volumes reallypicked up on properties going to
market in the second half ofthe year, didn't it?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yes, absolutely.
That's exactly what's happened.
So volumes are up in terms ofauction volumes in Sydney by
about 11, 12% on the previousyear, 2023.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
in Sydney by about 11-12% on the previous year,
2023.
And at what point in theauction clearance rate do we
start to see price falls versusprice rises?
What's trigger points.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, look on our numbers.
It is generally at the 50% mark.
So when you see clearance ratesare continually below the 50%
mark and trending down, youstart to see housing price falls
.
And that's what exactly we'veseen in Sydney from September
onwards.
It is a trend that's important.
So you can see the reversewhere, if the market is already
(07:33):
in a downturn, you start to seea pickup in clearance rates from
, say, 40% up to say 47%, 48%.
In that scenario you mightactually start to see housing
prices stop falling and youstart to see a bit of a recovery
of sorts.
So it's not just the absolutenumber that counts, it's the
actual direction that counts too.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Now I'll bring up our next slide here, which covers
off migration numbers.
Yes, these slides, by the way,are from your 2025 boom and bust
report, which I encourageeverybody to get a copy of it.
It's excellent every year, butthis year I thought it was an
outstanding report, louis, andthis year, I thought, captured
some really, really interestingtrends.
(08:13):
If you just want to walk usthrough the first population
slide there and let us know whatwe're seeing here, yeah, sure.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
So the first slide there looks at total population
growth split by naturalincreases, so that's births over
deaths plus net overseasmigration being the orange line
there, and, as you can see,there was a huge rise in the
population growth rate followingthe end of COVID and the
opening of the borders.
(08:41):
Now, since then, we've had alittle bit of a slowdown, but
nowhere as much as anticipated,and so the reality is that for
2024, it looks like the yearwill finish with at least an
expansion of 500,000 plus peopleacross Australia.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
So correct me if I'm wrong, but what I'm reading here
from this graph, in theory, is,if we didn't let anyone into
the country, our populationwould be going backwards.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
It would be, it would almost be going backwards.
That is correct.
So we've got a natural increaseoccurring Australia wide of
some 100,000 people.
So there was no net migrationat all, although it was net
neutral.
We'd be expanding by 100,000people.
So there was no net migrationat all.
Although it was net neutral,we'd be expanding by 100,000
people.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Right, which is just not enough, is it?
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Well, that all depends what you're trying to
achieve with the economy.
For me personally, I believe wehave too many coming into the
country now relative to ourbuilding, so we're simply not
building enough relative to thepopulation expansion.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, we'll come to construction in a moment.
Can I bring up your nextpopulation slide here?
And I want to highlight thisone here in New South Wales,
which is negative net interstatemigration.
That's right, louis, is thispeople bailing on Sydney due to
cost of living?
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Well, it's fundamentally bailing on New
South Wales, but, yes, it wouldbe bailing on Sydney, and I
think that's an affordabilityissue, yes, so the question is,
where are they bailing to?
And when you look at this chart, you can see that there are
states such as Western Australia, such as Queensland, where
there's positive interstatemigration flows.
So then you've got to say, well, where are those positive net
(10:27):
interstate migration flowscoming from?
Because fundamentally, it's abit of a zero-sum game and, as
you can see, it's predominantlycoming from New South Wales.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
They do this in politics all the time is just
pick your Mr and Mrs average andsort of target them if you like
and if you think of Mr and Mrsaverage and sort of target them
if you like and if you think ofMr and Mrs average in Sydney if
you have a job which has largelyfixed earnings, regardless of
where you live in the country.
But on CoreLogic's numbers, notyours, the median house price
(10:57):
in Sydney is 1.45 million.
The next most expensive capitalcity in Australia is still
under a million dollars.
Yes, so people are paying a 45,50% premium to live in Sydney.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Yeah, that's right.
And then when you think abouthow this works for essential
service workers you know yourambulance workers your
healthcare workers you know, canthey afford the average house
in sydney?
Speaker 1 (11:24):
well, they can't and their lifestyle would be better
if they bail.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Exactly which is captured here isn't it and this
is a problem for the city in thelong term.
We need essential serviceworkers in this city yes, indeed
, we can't all be bankers,lawyers we certainly cannot real
estate agents.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
we don't need more real estate agents, so it's one
thing everyone will agree ontoday.
Moving along here, louis, toyour dwelling forecast for
rentals, you've picked up somechanges in the rental market and
you forecast some changes in2025 for the rental market.
Could you walk us through those?
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Yeah, sure.
So for 2024, it looks likewe'll finish a year with rents
up these are advertised rents upacross the nation by about 4.3%
, which is just above theinflation rate.
Now, let's keep in mind, backin 2023, that number was towards
10%, with some cities recordingnearly 20% rental increases.
(12:19):
But what's been going on overthe course of 2024 is a lot of
the bad news in the rentalcrisis has been priced into the
rental market, in our view.
So, yes, we still have a rentalcrisis overall across the city,
but has it actually beengetting materially worse and
worse and worse?
Well, the numbers would suggestno.
(12:40):
We still have a rental crisis,let's be clear about that.
But has it deteriorated evenfurther?
And the answer to that is notreally.
Not really Depends on whichcity we're discussing, but
overall, not really.
So as a result of that, lookingat more of our leading
indicators as well, we've beenforecasting for 2025, more
(13:01):
subdued rental growth.
We've been forecasting for 2025, more subdued rental growth.
We've still got a situationwhere there's more tenants than
dwellings, but how people havebeen responding, particularly in
these hard times, is thatthey've been grouping together
more to share the burden of therent.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
And the RBA wanted to see that, didn't they?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
They did indeed, and it has been happening.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Yeah.
So let's talk about the RBA.
All along we've been hearingabout headline inflation.
We've got to get into thetarget range between 2% and 3%.
We slipped into the targetrange 2.8% and then 2.1%, and
then this new dialogue emergedfrom the RBA new as far as I'm
concerned, anyway where itwasn't about the headline
(13:42):
inflation number, it was aboutthe underlying inflation number,
and that's still stubbornlyhigh at 3.5% and creeping up.
That's why rates won't be cut.
Louis, did the RBA move thegoalposts on us?
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Look, I don't believe so, Peter.
To be fair to the Reserve Bank,they've always had a word or
two about underlying inflation.
It's something that they liketo follow more closely because
it trends a bit more.
It takes into account thingssuch as government subsidies
that we've been seeing in themarketplace, whereas the
headline number doesn't reallyadjust for these government
subsidies.
(14:16):
So I understand why the RBA hasbeen stating what they've been
stating Now.
That said, we're all aware thatthe economy has been slowing
down fundamentally and on a perperson basis, it's been going
backwards for a number ofquarters.
Now that will certainly beplaying on the RBA's mind.
What else will be playing onthe RBA's mind is the fact that
(14:38):
we're seeing an increasingnumber of central banks overseas
cutting interest rates.
So the ECB, for example, hasbeen cutting interest rate.
The Federal Reserve in theUnited States has been cutting
interest rates, and so thatpotentially has been putting
pressure on the RBA to do asimilar cut.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Yeah, the RBA does have a higher cash rate lower
cash rate setting, I should say,than all of those central banks
coming into this cycle though,didn't it?
Speaker 2 (15:06):
They didn't go up as high.
So their argument is weshouldn't go down as low.
And there's a case to say well,let's keep interest rates on a
more neutral setting, or thecurrent setting for longer.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Louis, do you think the current interest rate
setting is correct?
Are they right to have left iton hold all year, or should they
have thrown in a cut late inthe year to throw some relief?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Oh, that's a good question, and I'm glad I'm not a
central banker, peter, becausethey're dealing with a lot of
factors that are out there, alot of varying forces.
They would be conscious thatpotentially cutting interest
rates could reignite the housingmarket in Sydney and Melbourne,
and I don't think they want toactually see that.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Well, most of our audience are not Melbourne
related, but that market isreally taking a battering at the
moment, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (15:52):
In Melbourne.
Yes, yes, I mean, look to beclear.
There's no crash in Melbourneoccurring.
Housing prices are off for theyear by about 3% and, like
Sydney, auction clearance ratesin Melbourne have been weakening
as we get towards the end of2024.
There are also other issues atplay in Melbourne which we're
(16:14):
not seeing so much of in city.
So, for example, we've recordeda essentially a new high on
dist distress listings activityin Melbourne.
So when we've talked aboutdistress listings in the past
with you, peter, we've alwaysqualified the point that, ok,
hang on.
Yes, there might be a bit of arise in distress listings, but
we're still well below thepre-COVID levels.
(16:35):
So it's still relatively benignsituation, but not in Melbourne
anymore.
So Melbourne has recorded a newhigh.
It's higher than pre-COVID, andso that's telling us that there
is more financial distress inthe Victorian community.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
The state budget, the land tax, the anti-landlord
position the state government'staken there is all impacting on
this, isn't it?
I believe so yeah, existinglandlords selling out.
There's a lack of confidencefor incoming landlords.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Plus an overall slowdown in the Victorian
economy I believe is alsooccurring.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, it was, you would suspect being.
Is it Australia's mostpopulated city now?
Oh, it's Limeball we've seenright now.
Yeah, so you would expect thatits pricing would not be too
dissimilar.
But again, on CoreLogic'snumbers, tell me if you've seen
something different.
But on CoreLogic's numbers,tell me if you've seen something
(17:31):
different.
But it's now the fourth orfifth most expensive capital
city in the country, wherecertainly Brisbane, canberra and
I think it might be one othercity, perth might be challenging
it in terms of its median houseprice value.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, that's true and that may well present a longer
term opportunity in Victoria andin Melbourne once the economy
stabilises and changes are madepolitically, potentially.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
And those essential workers in New South Wales that
are being asked to pay a medianhouse price $1.45 million.
If they can earn the same inMelbourne, why wouldn't you go
to Melbourne for lifestylepurposes?
There's a lot of change between$1.45 and $9.50.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Absolutely.
And going back to thatinterstate migration flows, you
will see that in Victoriathere's no major negative
interstate outflow In fact Ithink it's now slightly positive
whereas, as we can see, in NewSouth Wales it's a major
interstate outflow.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Louis, right through this interest rate hiking cycle
that we've been undertaking, theprestige market has been
impervious to higher interestrates.
It's just been performing.
It's just continued its bullrun from the COVID era.
Did you detect any changes inyour data as to how the prestige
market was performing on theback end of the year?
Speaker 2 (18:45):
in your data as to how the prestige market was
performing on the back end ofthe year.
We have noticed some weaknessin the inner rings of Sydney.
When we look at Sydney's east,sydney's inner west, sydney's
lower North Shore and Sydney'supper North Shore, we now are
recording rises in stock,including freestanding houses.
I think the very top end of themarket is still fairly solid.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
So what's top end?
Speaker 2 (19:06):
Fifteen plus Fifteen million, plus It'd be 10 million
plus in our view.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
So Prestige would be five to ten in.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Yeah, yeah, five to ten, and I think we're seeing
some weakness between the twoand a half to about $6 million
range.
So that is a point where youstill see basically buyers who
are taking out loans to buythose homes, whereas when you
get to $10 million plus, it'sgenerally cash buyers.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
In the middle of the year when we caught up, you felt
the geopolitical issues coulddominate where the market goes
in the short term.
Probably hasn't spilt over intothe economy and the property
market yet, but it's prettypretty willing.
Once you leave australia, youknow um.
The assad regime fell over theweekend.
(19:56):
Like there's major playshappening.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
Oh yeah, it's a brave new world once again in the
middle east.
Yes, uh, yeah, look out.
One of the fears we had uh, for2024, well, was that the Middle
East would seriously blow upand look, it's been boiling.
There's no question about that.
It didn't get to the point,though, where we saw Iran try to
block oil supply, and that wasour concern that it could get to
(20:21):
that level, and, essentiallythroughout the course of the
year, iran blinked, they blinked, they decided they were not
ready for an outright war withIsrael, and so that was an
interesting move to see themblink like that.
So that was one of the primaryreasons why we just did not see
(20:42):
oil reignite.
So our concern was that you'dsee a reignition of inflation
around the world because of amajor blow up in the Middle East
.
And gee, we came close, but itdidn't actually happen.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
And the fall of the Assad regime in Syria doesn't
actually help Iran's cause, doesit?
It sort of weakens them further.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Well look, I'm not a geopolitical expert.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I'm just a housing expert.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
You know.
So I do not know what to makeof this regime change.
I've read multiple storiesabout it.
I don't think there are a fewpeople who really are fully
aware.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
It's a wait and see.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
It is a wait and see game.
That's correct, but it isinteresting that Iran has
blinked.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
So I think they're in a position where they're saying
we're not ready for war rightnow.
Let's hope they're never ready,lou, let's come back to housing
, where you are an expert.
We all know that listingvolumes were up.
Whether you follow the propertymarket or you don't, you knew
listing volumes were up becauseas you drove around your local
suburb, there were a lot moresignboards this year than there
has been in previous years.
Yes, what I'm really keen toknow is, whilst there was an
(21:51):
increase in listings, what aboutsales volumes?
Because the auction clearancerate captures only those people
or properties that go to auction.
Many people transact off marketbuy negotiation.
So when we look at overallsales volumes for the year, how
are they comparing year on yearwith 2023?
Speaker 2 (22:12):
So for Sydney, the fall in auction clearance rates
has been offset by a rise involumes scheduled activity.
The fall in auction clearancerates is off by about five to
six percentage points comparedto where we were this time last
year.
Overall, that would imply thatin Sydney there's been a rise in
sold activity for the springselling season.
(22:36):
I put that at about three toabout six percent rise compared
to 2023.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Anecdotally not the data precision that you would
have access to I did notice inthe last quarter an increasing
occurrence where people wereselling their property for less
than they paid.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yes, and that's been happening particularly with off
the plan developments.
We're seeing it in Sydney's CBD, we're seeing it in Sydney's
Parramatta, we're seeing it inSydney's Cullingford in
particular.
So areas where there's been alot of off the plan activity
with high density dwellings yeah, and we were actually seeing it
in the housing market.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
It wasn't a dominant trend, but I can tell you it was
there prestige real estatepeople buying for, you know, 4.4
and going back out for 4.2million 3-, four years later.
The other consistency, if I cansay, between a lot of those
properties is they purchased in2021.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Yes, yes.
Well, the issue with the topend of the market is that you've
got less comparable sales towork out.
Fair valuation these are veryunique properties.
Sales to work out fair valueagents these are very unique
properties and just becausesomeone paid X amount of dollars
in 2021 doesn't mean that thatis a fair market value.
Today, these things are trickyto try to come to a fair market
(23:59):
value, whereas more standardizedstock you've got a whole bunch
of comparable sales to work outwhere the market's at.
So, yeah, the further high yougo in the housing market in
terms of dollars paid, um, themore unique the property is.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Less comparable sales the higher the chance that you
could you could actually overpaybecause it's a far more
inefficient market mid-yearthere was a lot of talk about
offshore buying and I know thatyou didn't quite buy into that
and you didn't think it was asdominant to the degree that some
media commentators claimed itwas at the time.
Certainly, on the ground wefelt like offshore buying sort
(24:38):
of fell away late in the year.
Did you have any sense of whatmight have been happening there?
Speaker 2 (24:44):
It's hard to get a strong sense on it because the
data behind offshore purchasesis severely lagged.
So right now, as we speak atthe end of 2024, we only have
part of the data for 2023 onthat front.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Okay, that's very laggy.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Yeah, it is indeed, so is that the same?
Speaker 1 (25:01):
data the government's making decisions on and policy
on.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Yeah right.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
So it's when it comes to foreign investment purchases
.
Because of that lag in data,you see a lot of hearsay
evidence and only anecdotalevidence, and so from an analyst
perspective it's really hard tomake great judgments.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Yeah, Louis.
In summary, who got the best ofit in 2024,?
Sellers or buyers?
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Depends on which city we're discussing Sydney.
So for Sydney it was a marginalseller's market in the first
half of the year, but I stronglybelieve it swung to a buyer's
market in the second half.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Yeah, so we're calling it a draw.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Net draw, that's right.
Yeah, net draw.
But as we speak right now, themarket is increasingly favouring
buyers.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Yes, indeed, I, we speak.
Right now.
The market is increasinglyfavouring buyers.
Yes, indeed, I would call it anet draw as well.
But what I would point out tosellers is that, given what
happened with interest rates ie,there was no relief thrown in
this year and it has kept pacewith inflation.
They should be happy with that,because the market could have
taken a bigger flesh wound thisyear than it did, and I think
(26:08):
we'll talk in our next recordingabout what happens in 2025.
But I think if the RBA don'tstart throwing some relief out
there, the market will be underfurther duress.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
I think so.
I think for the first as wefinish the year and head into
2025, pretty much all ourindicators leading indicators on
the Sydney housing market haveheaded south.
They're weak.
So I'm a strong believer thathousing prices will continue to
fall into the start of 2025 andprobably until we finally see
that rate cut.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
Louis, fantastic wrap today on the 2024 Sydney
property market.
Thanks very much.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Thank you once again.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
And thank you for joining us today on Talking
Property.
We look forward to speakingwith you next time.
Welcome to Talking Property.
Today, I'm joined byAustralia's best property
analyst, louis Christopher, aswe dissect and review the 2024
Sydney property market.
Louis, thanks for joining us.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
G'day, peter, nice to be with you once again.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Louis, we caught up mid-year and the Sydney market
was actually outperformingexpectations at that stage.
We were both very surprised athow well the market was
travelling, but it's lookinglike it was a year of two halves
where the market really changedaround August, didn't it?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Yes, it did.
So I think from the start ofthe spring selling season we
noticed a real decline inauction clearance rates.
As to a real decline in auctionclearance rates and, over and
above that, stock on market orlistings started to accumulate
based on a rise in olderlistings.
So when you start seeing a risein older listings, it generally
is a big sign that the market'sslowing down.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, so just confirming the spring selling
season actually starts in August, because that's when the
auction clearance rates on yournumbers dip below 50%.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Essentially, that's when you start to see more
listings in the marketplaceahead of September, but there is
actually a high number ofscheduled activity that actually
occurs in August.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, so I was following the auction clearance
rates that you put out eachTuesday and correct me if I'm
wrong, but I think we onlycracked higher than 50% twice
since early August.
Is that your understanding ofthe clearance?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
rate.
I think you may well be right.
Importantly, the trend's beenvery obvious.
The trend has been weakeningand weakening auction clearance
rates for Sydney,notwithstanding that the very
last weeks of the spring sellingseason, in December, we did
notice a slight pickup in theauction clearance rate, not to
(01:53):
go over 50% though.
So I think, as the year hasended, while I think there's
perhaps been some buyers havecome in and potentially seen an
opportunity, it's been a weakmarket.
It's been increasingly abuyer's market.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
And as those properties didn't move and
failed that auction, did theysell after the auction or did
they go to the sideline?
Have we got any sort of senseof what happened there?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
They're mainly going to private treaty.
So they're being re-advertisedas private treaty or they're
being withdrawn for the propertyseason.
That's mainly what's happening.
Yes, you do have some that sellafter the event, no doubt about
that, but the bulk of theproperties have been
re-advertised as private treaty.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
And the ones that are withdrawn?
Do we expect to see higherlistings going into 2025 as a
result of new year stockcompeting with last year's stock
?
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I think we will.
So more often than not you seethese properties get withdrawn
over the Christmas New Yearperiod.
Vendors then take stock interms of what they really wish
to achieve with their propertyand then a fairly high
percentage of those withdraw andyou start to see come back into
the market in the March quarter.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Great Look.
Let's bring up this slide here,which is recapping your 2024
predictions.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
For the Sydney market specifically, which, would you
say, turned out to be the mostaccurate?
Louis?
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Definitely our scenario three.
I mean, as you know, we like tohang our hat on our base case
scenario, but scenario three isthe one that's generally come in
and that was one where weforecasted stronger population
growth than our base case andthat's what we believe
fundamentally has happened.
The population in 2024 hasexpanded once again nationwide
(03:42):
by north of 500,000 people.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
So the government made a big announcement very
early in the year that they werepulling back on the number of
people they let into the country.
Did they break that promise?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
I think they have.
When you look at the netoverseas arrival data, which is
more timely data than theoverall net immigration data,
it's showing there's been nomajor slowdown.
There's been a slight slowdownover 2023, but not a material
slowdown and far less of aslowdown than what federal
(04:13):
budget actually anticipated,what the government suggested
would happen and what our ownforecast suggests would happen.
So, yeah, it's been a strongerthan expected year on the
population front.
Would happen.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
So yeah, it's been a stronger than expected year on
the population front.
Louis, these are dwellingpredictions.
They're not apartments orhouses dwelling price
predictions.
So where did we come in forhouses and apartments
respectively, in 2024?
Speaker 2 (04:46):
So at the national level, overall dwelling price
increases are coming in at about4% and that's been
predominantly driven by bigrises in Perth, Brisbane and
Adelaide as well.
And now the split betweenhouses and units it's been
actually very close and I wouldactually argue that houses have
just outperformed units.
But it depends on which capitalcity we actually discuss.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Yeah, and Sydney specifically.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Sydney on our numbers , units have done a little bit
better than houses.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Okay, when was the last time apartments
outperformed houses in Sydney?
Speaker 2 (05:14):
2018.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Yeah, so quite some time.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Yeah, we're noticing that on cyclical downturns in
Sydney and it is the case forMelbourne cyclical downturns in
Sydney and it is the case forMelbourne that units tend to be
a pretty good defensive play indownturns, whereas in upturns
houses beat units, and is thatbecause they're cheaper?
I think they're cheaper.
Yes, it is an affordabilityfactor.
Now, when we speak of units,we're talking about existing
(05:40):
units, the off-the-plan stock noway that always underperforms,
but existing units duringdownturns we're noticing in more
recent times it's outperforming.
So it is an affordabilityfactor.
It's also a supply factorrelative to underlying demand
increases.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
So inflation's been running at about 3%, dropping in
very recent times but averagedaround that during the year.
Sydney house prices have put ona little bit more than 3%,
would you say.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
So for the course of 2024, sydney house prices will
look.
They look like it'll finish theyear at about plus 3%.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
So it's kept pace with inflation, but overall not
done much better than that.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Yeah, and I think we need to look at, as you spoke of
earlier, a tale of two halves.
So the first half of the yearis where most of the gains in
Sydney occurred, but really, onour numbers, from about
September onwards we've beenrecording housing price falls in
Sydney.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Louis, I'll just bring up the next slide and I'll
just show our audience todaywhat has happened here with the
auction clearance rate, and youcan see here that the trend line
is down and the volumes reallypicked up on properties going to
market in the second half ofthe year, didn't it?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yes, absolutely.
That's exactly what's happened.
So volumes are up in terms ofauction volumes in Sydney by
about 11, 12% on the previousyear, 2023.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
in Sydney by about 11-12% on the previous year,
2023.
And at what point in theauction clearance rate do we
start to see price falls versusprice rises?
What's trigger points.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, look on our numbers.
It is generally at the 50% mark.
So when you see clearance ratesare continually below the 50%
mark and trending down, youstart to see housing price falls
.
And that's what exactly we'veseen in Sydney from September
onwards.
It is a trend that's important.
So you can see the reversewhere, if the market is already
(07:33):
in a downturn, you start to seea pickup in clearance rates from
, say, 40% up to say 47%, 48%.
In that scenario you mightactually start to see housing
prices stop falling and youstart to see a bit of a recovery
of sorts.
So it's not just the absolutenumber that counts, it's the
actual direction that counts too.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Now I'll bring up our next slide here, which covers
off migration numbers.
Yes, these slides, by the way,are from your 2025 boom and bust
report, which I encourageeverybody to get a copy of it.
It's excellent every year, butthis year I thought it was an
outstanding report, louis, andthis year, I thought, captured
some really, really interestingtrends.
(08:13):
If you just want to walk usthrough the first population
slide there and let us know whatwe're seeing here, yeah, sure.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
So the first slide there looks at total population
growth split by naturalincreases, so that's births over
deaths plus net overseasmigration being the orange line
there, and, as you can see,there was a huge rise in the
population growth rate followingthe end of COVID and the
opening of the borders.
(08:41):
Now, since then, we've had alittle bit of a slowdown, but
nowhere as much as anticipated,and so the reality is that for
2024, it looks like the yearwill finish with at least an
expansion of 500,000 plus peopleacross Australia.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
So correct me if I'm wrong, but what I'm reading here
from this graph, in theory, is,if we didn't let anyone into
the country, our populationwould be going backwards.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
It would be, it would almost be going backwards.
That is correct.
So we've got a natural increaseoccurring Australia wide of
some 100,000 people.
So there was no net migrationat all, although it was net
neutral.
We'd be expanding by 100,000people.
So there was no net migrationat all.
Although it was net neutral,we'd be expanding by 100,000
people.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Right, which is just not enough, is it?
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Well, that all depends what you're trying to
achieve with the economy.
For me personally, I believe wehave too many coming into the
country now relative to ourbuilding, so we're simply not
building enough relative to thepopulation expansion.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, we'll come to construction in a moment.
Can I bring up your nextpopulation slide here?
And I want to highlight thisone here in New South Wales,
which is negative net interstatemigration.
That's right, louis, is thispeople bailing on Sydney due to
cost of living?
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Well, it's fundamentally bailing on New
South Wales, but, yes, it wouldbe bailing on Sydney, and I
think that's an affordabilityissue, yes, so the question is,
where are they bailing to?
And when you look at this chart, you can see that there are
states such as Western Australia, such as Queensland, where
there's positive interstatemigration flows.
So then you've got to say, well, where are those positive net
(10:27):
interstate migration flowscoming from?
Because fundamentally, it's abit of a zero-sum game and, as
you can see, it's predominantlycoming from New South Wales.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
They do this in politics all the time is just
pick your Mr and Mrs average andsort of target them if you like
and if you think of Mr and Mrsaverage and sort of target them
if you like and if you think ofMr and Mrs average in Sydney if
you have a job which has largelyfixed earnings, regardless of
where you live in the country.
But on CoreLogic's numbers, notyours, the median house price
(10:57):
in Sydney is 1.45 million.
The next most expensive capitalcity in Australia is still
under a million dollars.
Yes, so people are paying a 45,50% premium to live in Sydney.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Yeah, that's right.
And then when you think abouthow this works for essential
service workers you know yourambulance workers your
healthcare workers you know, canthey afford the average house
in sydney?
Speaker 1 (11:24):
well, they can't and their lifestyle would be better
if they bail.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Exactly which is captured here isn't it and this
is a problem for the city in thelong term.
We need essential serviceworkers in this city yes, indeed
, we can't all be bankers,lawyers we certainly cannot real
estate agents.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
we don't need more real estate agents, so it's one
thing everyone will agree ontoday.
Moving along here, louis, toyour dwelling forecast for
rentals, you've picked up somechanges in the rental market and
you forecast some changes in2025 for the rental market.
Could you walk us through those?
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Yeah, sure.
So for 2024, it looks likewe'll finish a year with rents
up these are advertised rents upacross the nation by about 4.3%
, which is just above theinflation rate.
Now, let's keep in mind, backin 2023, that number was towards
10%, with some cities recordingnearly 20% rental increases.
(12:19):
But what's been going on overthe course of 2024 is a lot of
the bad news in the rentalcrisis has been priced into the
rental market, in our view.
So, yes, we still have a rentalcrisis overall across the city,
but has it actually beengetting materially worse and
worse and worse?
Well, the numbers would suggestno.
(12:40):
We still have a rental crisis,let's be clear about that.
But has it deteriorated evenfurther?
And the answer to that is notreally.
Not really Depends on whichcity we're discussing, but
overall, not really.
So as a result of that, lookingat more of our leading
indicators as well, we've beenforecasting for 2025, more
(13:01):
subdued rental growth.
We've been forecasting for 2025, more subdued rental growth.
We've still got a situationwhere there's more tenants than
dwellings, but how people havebeen responding, particularly in
these hard times, is thatthey've been grouping together
more to share the burden of therent.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
And the RBA wanted to see that, didn't they?
Speaker 2 (13:18):
They did indeed, and it has been happening.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Yeah.
So let's talk about the RBA.
All along we've been hearingabout headline inflation.
We've got to get into thetarget range between 2% and 3%.
We slipped into the targetrange 2.8% and then 2.1%, and
then this new dialogue emergedfrom the RBA new as far as I'm
concerned, anyway where itwasn't about the headline
(13:42):
inflation number, it was aboutthe underlying inflation number,
and that's still stubbornlyhigh at 3.5% and creeping up.
That's why rates won't be cut.
Louis, did the RBA move thegoalposts on us?
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Look, I don't believe so, Peter.
To be fair to the Reserve Bank,they've always had a word or
two about underlying inflation.
It's something that they liketo follow more closely because
it trends a bit more.
It takes into account thingssuch as government subsidies
that we've been seeing in themarketplace, whereas the
headline number doesn't reallyadjust for these government
subsidies.
(14:16):
So I understand why the RBA hasbeen stating what they've been
stating Now.
That said, we're all aware thatthe economy has been slowing
down fundamentally and on a perperson basis, it's been going
backwards for a number ofquarters.
Now that will certainly beplaying on the RBA's mind.
What else will be playing onthe RBA's mind is the fact that
(14:38):
we're seeing an increasingnumber of central banks overseas
cutting interest rates.
So the ECB, for example, hasbeen cutting interest rate.
The Federal Reserve in theUnited States has been cutting
interest rates, and so thatpotentially has been putting
pressure on the RBA to do asimilar cut.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Yeah, the RBA does have a higher cash rate lower
cash rate setting, I should say,than all of those central banks
coming into this cycle though,didn't it?
Speaker 2 (15:06):
They didn't go up as high.
So their argument is weshouldn't go down as low.
And there's a case to say well,let's keep interest rates on a
more neutral setting, or thecurrent setting for longer.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Louis, do you think the current interest rate
setting is correct?
Are they right to have left iton hold all year, or should they
have thrown in a cut late inthe year to throw some relief?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Oh, that's a good question, and I'm glad I'm not a
central banker, peter, becausethey're dealing with a lot of
factors that are out there, alot of varying forces.
They would be conscious thatpotentially cutting interest
rates could reignite the housingmarket in Sydney and Melbourne,
and I don't think they want toactually see that.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Well, most of our audience are not Melbourne
related, but that market isreally taking a battering at the
moment, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (15:52):
In Melbourne.
Yes, yes, I mean, look to beclear.
There's no crash in Melbourneoccurring.
Housing prices are off for theyear by about 3% and, like
Sydney, auction clearance ratesin Melbourne have been weakening
as we get towards the end of2024.
There are also other issues atplay in Melbourne which we're
(16:14):
not seeing so much of in city.
So, for example, we've recordeda essentially a new high on
dist distress listings activityin Melbourne.
So when we've talked aboutdistress listings in the past
with you, peter, we've alwaysqualified the point that, ok,
hang on.
Yes, there might be a bit of arise in distress listings, but
we're still well below thepre-COVID levels.
(16:35):
So it's still relatively benignsituation, but not in Melbourne
anymore.
So Melbourne has recorded a newhigh.
It's higher than pre-COVID, andso that's telling us that there
is more financial distress inthe Victorian community.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
The state budget, the land tax, the anti-landlord
position the state government'staken there is all impacting on
this, isn't it?
I believe so yeah, existinglandlords selling out.
There's a lack of confidencefor incoming landlords.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Plus an overall slowdown in the Victorian
economy I believe is alsooccurring.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, it was, you would suspect being.
Is it Australia's mostpopulated city now?
Oh, it's Limeball we've seenright now.
Yeah, so you would expect thatits pricing would not be too
dissimilar.
But again, on CoreLogic'snumbers, tell me if you've seen
something different.
But on CoreLogic's numbers,tell me if you've seen something
(17:31):
different.
But it's now the fourth orfifth most expensive capital
city in the country, wherecertainly Brisbane, canberra and
I think it might be one othercity, perth might be challenging
it in terms of its median houseprice value.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, that's true and that may well present a longer
term opportunity in Victoria andin Melbourne once the economy
stabilises and changes are madepolitically, potentially.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
And those essential workers in New South Wales that
are being asked to pay a medianhouse price $1.45 million.
If they can earn the same inMelbourne, why wouldn't you go
to Melbourne for lifestylepurposes?
There's a lot of change between$1.45 and $9.50.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Absolutely.
And going back to thatinterstate migration flows, you
will see that in Victoriathere's no major negative
interstate outflow In fact Ithink it's now slightly positive
whereas, as we can see, in NewSouth Wales it's a major
interstate outflow.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Louis, right through this interest rate hiking cycle
that we've been undertaking, theprestige market has been
impervious to higher interestrates.
It's just been performing.
It's just continued its bullrun from the COVID era.
Did you detect any changes inyour data as to how the prestige
market was performing on theback end of the year?
Speaker 2 (18:45):
in your data as to how the prestige market was
performing on the back end ofthe year.
We have noticed some weaknessin the inner rings of Sydney.
When we look at Sydney's east,sydney's inner west, sydney's
lower North Shore and Sydney'supper North Shore, we now are
recording rises in stock,including freestanding houses.
I think the very top end of themarket is still fairly solid.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
So what's top end?
Speaker 2 (19:06):
Fifteen plus Fifteen million, plus It'd be 10 million
plus in our view.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
So Prestige would be five to ten in.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Yeah, yeah, five to ten, and I think we're seeing
some weakness between the twoand a half to about $6 million
range.
So that is a point where youstill see basically buyers who
are taking out loans to buythose homes, whereas when you
get to $10 million plus, it'sgenerally cash buyers.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
In the middle of the year when we caught up, you felt
the geopolitical issues coulddominate where the market goes
in the short term.
Probably hasn't spilt over intothe economy and the property
market yet, but it's prettypretty willing.
Once you leave australia, youknow um.
The assad regime fell over theweekend.
(19:56):
Like there's major playshappening.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
Oh yeah, it's a brave new world once again in the
middle east.
Yes, uh, yeah, look out.
One of the fears we had uh, for2024, well, was that the Middle
East would seriously blow upand look, it's been boiling.
There's no question about that.
It didn't get to the point,though, where we saw Iran try to
block oil supply, and that wasour concern that it could get to
(20:21):
that level, and, essentiallythroughout the course of the
year, iran blinked, they blinked, they decided they were not
ready for an outright war withIsrael, and so that was an
interesting move to see themblink like that.
So that was one of the primaryreasons why we just did not see
(20:42):
oil reignite.
So our concern was that you'dsee a reignition of inflation
around the world because of amajor blow up in the Middle East
.
And gee, we came close, but itdidn't actually happen.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
And the fall of the Assad regime in Syria doesn't
actually help Iran's cause, doesit?
It sort of weakens them further.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Well look, I'm not a geopolitical expert.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
I'm just a housing expert.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
You know.
So I do not know what to makeof this regime change.
I've read multiple storiesabout it.
I don't think there are a fewpeople who really are fully
aware.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
It's a wait and see.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
It is a wait and see game.
That's correct, but it isinteresting that Iran has
blinked.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
So I think they're in a position where they're saying
we're not ready for war rightnow.
Let's hope they're never ready,lou, let's come back to housing
, where you are an expert.
We all know that listingvolumes were up.
Whether you follow the propertymarket or you don't, you knew
listing volumes were up becauseas you drove around your local
suburb, there were a lot moresignboards this year than there
has been in previous years.
Yes, what I'm really keen toknow is, whilst there was an
(21:51):
increase in listings, what aboutsales volumes?
Because the auction clearancerate captures only those people
or properties that go to auction.
Many people transact off marketbuy negotiation.
So when we look at overallsales volumes for the year, how
are they comparing year on yearwith 2023?
Speaker 2 (22:12):
So for Sydney, the fall in auction clearance rates
has been offset by a rise involumes scheduled activity.
The fall in auction clearancerates is off by about five to
six percentage points comparedto where we were this time last
year.
Overall, that would imply thatin Sydney there's been a rise in
sold activity for the springselling season.
(22:36):
I put that at about three toabout six percent rise compared
to 2023.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Anecdotally not the data precision that you would
have access to I did notice inthe last quarter an increasing
occurrence where people wereselling their property for less
than they paid.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yes, and that's been happening particularly with off
the plan developments.
We're seeing it in Sydney's CBD, we're seeing it in Sydney's
Parramatta, we're seeing it inSydney's Cullingford in
particular.
So areas where there's been alot of off the plan activity
with high density dwellings yeah, and we were actually seeing it
in the housing market.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
It wasn't a dominant trend, but I can tell you it was
there prestige real estatepeople buying for, you know, 4.4
and going back out for 4.2million 3-, four years later.
The other consistency, if I cansay, between a lot of those
properties is they purchased in2021.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Yes, yes.
Well, the issue with the topend of the market is that you've
got less comparable sales towork out.
Fair valuation these are veryunique properties.
Sales to work out fair valueagents these are very unique
properties and just becausesomeone paid X amount of dollars
in 2021 doesn't mean that thatis a fair market value.
Today, these things are trickyto try to come to a fair market
(23:59):
value, whereas more standardizedstock you've got a whole bunch
of comparable sales to work outwhere the market's at.
So, yeah, the further high yougo in the housing market in
terms of dollars paid, um, themore unique the property is.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Less comparable sales the higher the chance that you
could you could actually overpaybecause it's a far more
inefficient market mid-yearthere was a lot of talk about
offshore buying and I know thatyou didn't quite buy into that
and you didn't think it was asdominant to the degree that some
media commentators claimed itwas at the time.
Certainly, on the ground wefelt like offshore buying sort
(24:38):
of fell away late in the year.
Did you have any sense of whatmight have been happening there?
Speaker 2 (24:44):
It's hard to get a strong sense on it because the
data behind offshore purchasesis severely lagged.
So right now, as we speak atthe end of 2024, we only have
part of the data for 2023 onthat front.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Okay, that's very laggy.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Yeah, it is indeed, so is that the same?
Speaker 1 (25:01):
data the government's making decisions on and policy
on.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Yeah right.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
So it's when it comes to foreign investment purchases
.
Because of that lag in data,you see a lot of hearsay
evidence and only anecdotalevidence, and so from an analyst
perspective it's really hard tomake great judgments.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Yeah, Louis.
In summary, who got the best ofit in 2024,?
Sellers or buyers?
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Depends on which city we're discussing Sydney.
So for Sydney it was a marginalseller's market in the first
half of the year, but I stronglybelieve it swung to a buyer's
market in the second half.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Yeah, so we're calling it a draw.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Net draw, that's right.
Yeah, net draw.
But as we speak right now, themarket is increasingly favouring
buyers.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Yes, indeed, I, we speak.
Right now.
The market is increasinglyfavouring buyers.
Yes, indeed, I would call it anet draw as well.
But what I would point out tosellers is that, given what
happened with interest rates ie,there was no relief thrown in
this year and it has kept pacewith inflation.
They should be happy with that,because the market could have
taken a bigger flesh wound thisyear than it did, and I think
(26:08):
we'll talk in our next recordingabout what happens in 2025.
But I think if the RBA don'tstart throwing some relief out
there, the market will be underfurther duress.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
I think so.
I think for the first as wefinish the year and head into
2025, pretty much all ourindicators leading indicators on
the Sydney housing market haveheaded south.
They're weak.
So I'm a strong believer thathousing prices will continue to
fall into the start of 2025 andprobably until we finally see
that rate cut.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
Louis, fantastic wrap today on the 2024 Sydney
property market.
Thanks very much.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Thank you once again.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
And thank you for joining us today on Talking
Property.
We look forward to speakingwith you next time.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.
True Crime Tonight
If you eat, sleep, and breathe true crime, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT is serving up your nightly fix. Five nights a week, KT STUDIOS & iHEART RADIO invite listeners to pull up a seat for an unfiltered look at the biggest cases making headlines, celebrity scandals, and the trials everyone is watching. With a mix of expert analysis, hot takes, and listener call-ins, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT goes beyond the headlines to uncover the twists, turns, and unanswered questions that keep us all obsessed—because, at TRUE CRIME TONIGHT, there’s a seat for everyone. Whether breaking down crime scene forensics, scrutinizing serial killers, or debating the most binge-worthy true crime docs, True Crime Tonight is the fresh, fast-paced, and slightly addictive home for true crime lovers.