October 9, 2025 • 15 mins
Who’s the most clutch quarterback in NFL history — Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or someone completely unexpected? We’ll use Python + Data Science to figure it out.
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⏱️ TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Who’s the most clutch QB?
00:40 - Python + Sphinx AI: analyzing 1M NFL plays
02:00 - Defining “clutch” in football (data-driven approach)
03:15 - “TV Clutch” Top 10
07:50 - Using AI to processes play-by-play data
11:10 - Advanced Clutch Factor
17:00 - Advanced Top 10
24:30 - Build your own analysis
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Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
everyone thinks
they know who the most clutch quarterback in NFL
history is Tom Brady with his Super Bowl comebacks
Josh Allen in the playoffs
or Aaron Rodgers with impossible throws
everyone has opinions but what does the data say
well I'm a data scientist
so I fed Python every play from the last 25 years
over 1 million plays every pressure moment
(00:22):
every game winning drive and then
I let math and statistics decide
who really performs the most
when it matters the most and the most statistically
clutch quarterback in NFL history is
someone you definitely weren't expecting
now analyzing
patterns across 1 million football plays is not easy
(00:43):
even with Python so I use today's sponsor
Sphinx
to help me process this massive dataset in Python
to identify these statistical patterns that reveal
who is the most clutch quarterback of all time
more on Sphinx in a bit but before I reveal
the most clutch quarterback of all time
which I promise I will get to very soon
let's start a timer for 30 seconds
(01:04):
we have a huge problem what even is clutch
it's pretty hard to define
but we know it happens during crunch time right
and that we can basically say
is when the game is almost over and the score is close
for now we'll say that
clutch time is when the score is within one touchdown
so that's like Seven Points
and it's in the last eighth of the game
or the last 7:30 of the fourth quarter
(01:26):
or it's in overtime but even then
how do we quantify clutch
like numerically well
we'll use two different definitions today
No. 1 TV clutch and No. 2
advanced analytics clutch
let's go ahead and start with TV clutch
coming in at No. 10 on TV Clutch is Josh Freeman
surprisingly now
I know he didn't have an incredible career
(01:47):
but he definitely has some highlight moments
now this one kind of surprised me
I did not see Josh Freeman being on this list
but he did have one really good season
so maybe that's playing a big factor
No.9 is the controversial Aaron Rodgers
and this shouldn't be a huge surprise
as Aaron has had a ton of clutch plays
throughout his entire career
specifically with the Green Bay Packers
(02:09):
No.8 is Tony Romo yes
that is the now lead NFL analyst for CBS
who makes some very strange noises sometimes
but he had some very clutch plays for the Cowboys
back in the day coming in at No. 7 is Rich Gannon
I'm going to be honest I had to look him up
he's a little bit before my time
but it looks like he had a little bit of a late
career resurgence with the Oakland Raiders
(02:30):
and ultimately
won the league MVP and took them to the Super Bowl
No.6 is disappointingly Deshaun Watson
not much to say here so moving on to No. 5
and it's the Greatest Show on Turf
Mr Kurt Warner fantastic story of going undrafted
to almost getting kicked out of the NFL
two league MVP and Super Bowl champion
(02:51):
No.4 is Jake Delhomme his season in 2,003
LED the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl
earning the team the nickname the Cardiac Cats
due to the numerous
game winning drives in the fourth quarter
or overtime and those are all really things to Delhomme
he set a franchise record
with seven game winning drives
in that 2003 season alone
(03:12):
No. 3 is Andrew Luck and man
I totally get why he retired early
like I I make sense
but I would have loved to see the rest of his career
because he was absolutely incredible
and was a very clutch coming in at No. 2
it should really surprise no one
it's Patrick Mahomes don't need to say much here
he is very clutch
he's been on an incredible run the last eight years
(03:32):
leading to three Super Bowl wins
in five Super Bowl appearances
the only surprise here is he wasn't No. 1
and lastly at No. 1
the most clutch quarterback via TV is Tom Tua
Tonga Vaiaoloa yes
somehow Tua is the most clutch quarterback of all time
it's not Tom Brady question Mark
I don't get it if you know much about the NFL
(03:53):
you'll know that this result
it's kind of crazy
Tua isn't exactly known as a clutch quarterback
and honestly kind of has a reputation of being
maybe the opposite of clutch
so with that
let's talk about how he came up with his top 10
and the analytics that LED us to this point
so what is TV clutch well
it's a term that our AI data science co pilot
Sphinx created for us
(04:14):
it combines things that we can easily see on TV
in terms of clutchness touchdowns
interceptions completion percentages
those types of things
as well as how often they were in clutch situations
so let's rewind for a second here
and I'll tell you how we got this top 10
and how you can replicate this exact same analysis
on your own even if you're not a programmer
you're not very technical at all
and you don't know Python
(04:34):
so I start out by using NFL versus
Python package called NFL Data
Pie to download the last 25 years of play by play data
but instead of taking hours to understand how this API
works and write all the code myself
I just asked Sphinx to get the data for me
in plain English
Sphinx then went and read all of the API docs
(04:55):
to understand how the API works
and automatically wrote the code
for me to get all that play by play data
now could I have done that all on my own
absolutely it just would have taken me a lot of time
and I'm trying to pump out
really high quality episodes
for you guys
so it was really nice to have a little bit of a co
pilot to write this code for me
it ended up retrieving the last 25 seasons
which averages to around 45,000 plays per season
(05:18):
which is a total of 1.18 million rows of data
and it has 300 columns that let us know who is playing
where the ball is what the result of the play and a lot
lot more pretty sweet right
awesome dataset well
of course we actually aren't interested
in all 1.18 million plays
only the plays that fit the clutch criteria
that we stated earlier
(05:38):
which is basically the last 1/8 of a one score game
and so all I needed to do was tell Sphinx that
that's what I'm interested in doing
and it will create this filter for me on my data
so you notice I just spell it out in plain English
and tell exactly what I want
and the cool part is
it's actually smart enough to find the right column
names to do this filter
as well as do things like check for missing data
(05:59):
without me explicitly telling it to do so
and finally it writes the code to do the filter
and now we have a Python data frame
with only the plays that fall into our clutch category
next
we want to analyze the quarterback part of our data
because this is play by play data
which has data about
everyone and everything that's going on
but we're really only interested
in clutch quarterback performance
(06:20):
and you'll see in the data
that we definitely
have a lot of quarterback names going on
as well as whether it was a completed pass
whether it was a touchdown
or whether was an interception
yards completed all that good stuff
now this is where we can ask our co pilot
Sphinx to analyze all the existing plays
and using only touchdowns
interceptions completion percentage
yards and clutch attempts
we can tell it to create a TV Clutch Factor score
(06:43):
and ask it to rank by the most clutch quarterbacks
based upon that score now Sphinx
our copilot gets to work
and first it does the aggregation
for all of the quarterback pass plays
and calculates all of the completions and touchdowns
interceptions and the yards gained
as a reminder our data was the play by play data
not quarterback clutch season stats
so this step is absolutely necessary
(07:05):
to kind of clean the data
aggregate it
manipulate it in a way that makes it usable for us
then this code calculates what's called a Z score
for each one of those different metrics
if you're unfamiliar with the Z score
it's basically a measure
of how many standard deviations
a specific data point is
away from the mean of that data set
indicating its position within a distribution
(07:26):
which is basically in layman's terms
how much better or worse is a quarterback
from the average quarterback
based on these stats basically
this is what you need to know
a Z score of 0 means you're very average quarterback
a Z score of 1 means you're above average
and a Z score of negative 1 means you're below average
for that particular stat
our python code then creates a formula
(07:47):
where the touchdown Z scores
the yard Z scores
and the completion percentage scores are all good
and interceptions the scores are bad
and out of the other end of this formula
comes our top 10 list from earlier
with the most clutch quarterbacks
where Tua Tonga by Lowa
somehow is the most clutch quarterback of all time
now if this is your first time seeing Sphinx
hopefully you realize how cool it is
(08:07):
and how useful it can be
it's basically a co pilot for anyone working with data
it currently ships as a VS code extension
that interfaces with Jupiter
and other compatible notebooks
it runs in your environments alongside you
which first makes it safe and second
makes it easy to use
and it can access data through Python APIs
or it even has MCP
(08:28):
capabilities with things like snowflake
or Databricks or Big Query or Salesforce
whatever you're using
and you can learn more about Sphinx
and get started for free
using the link in the description down below
now once again if you know anything about football
you'd really question how on earth
can the current quarterback of the Miami Dolphins
Tua Tonga Vealua
be the most clutch quarterback of all time
(08:49):
and is it like
possible that Tony Romo can even be in the top 10
and the answer to that is I don't know
it's hard to know but we only really use basic stats
like touchdowns and completions and interceptions
earlier and that is a little bit basic
the good news is that the NFL stat heads
all of these NFL data analysts and data scientists
and all these smart people
have created other stats that are able to capture
(09:09):
how unique and how clutch a play is
and one of the things they created is called the win
probability added or WPA for short
and it's a bit hard to understand
and it would be an entirely
separate video to explain it in full
but basically every play in a football game changes
the chance that a team wins
or loses but specifically wins
WPA measures how much that play changes your odds
(09:31):
so for example in 2024 the Washington Commanders
were losing to the Chicago Bears
15 to 12
the commanders had the ball with two seconds left
on their own 48 yard line
they basically had a current chance of winning of 17%
Jaden Daniels is playing quarterback and as you can see
he drops back he's has to throw this
now basically they have to score a touchdown
(09:51):
so he has to throw it 60 yards 17% chance of winning
they score a touchdown
they win and you can kind of see that
he has to run away from all these guys
trying to sack him goes to the other side of the field
he's now look at this
he's at his 30 yard line he has to throw it 70 yards
there's the ball being thrown
it's in the air flies up
(10:13):
you'll see that
the ball pops out and is caught for a touchdown
and Washington wins the game
now
that is a very high WPA because the time has expired
there's no time left they'll now be at 18 points
and they have beaten the bears pretty much
no matter what happens cause there's no time left
so obviously that play was a very high WPA
now a WPA of 0
(10:35):
would be a play that does not change
the effect of the game at all
for example most kickoffs that result in a touchback
have a WPA of zero
cause it's a standard play that happens multiple times
the game and doesn't really affect what happens
it's really just like okay
the ball starts on
like the 30 yard line or whatever it is
a negative WPA
would be when the offense makes a really
(10:56):
costly mistake where they were going to win the game
but now they're probably not
for example this Josh Allen interception
in this situation it is overtime
the bills are playing the Minnesota Vikings
the Vikings are winning 33 to 30
but Buffalo the bills
have the ball with Josh Allen as quarterback there
is a minute left and they're on the 20 yard line
(11:18):
so all Josh Allen has to do is score a touchdown
and the game is over and the bills win
and Josh Allen's really good
so there is a current 74% chance of winning
when this ball is snapped
you'll see that Josh Allen gets the ball
he looks he looks pump fakes throws interception
the Vikings have the ball and they slide
(11:39):
and now Vikings end the game
because you only get one possession
I think at this time during the NFL
but even if that wasn't the case
they could just kneel and the game would be all over
so the game officially is over
Josh Allen has thrown a game losing interception
to make his team lose that would be extremely low
uh WPA
in fact they went from a 74% chance of winning to a 0%
(12:01):
so that's negative point seven four not good
now that we understand WPA
we know that a high positive value means you are clutch
and a low
negative value means you are the opposite of clutch
the play by play data that we actually downloaded
has WPA for every single play
which is really awesome for us
because that means that we can ask Sphinx
(12:21):
to find the 10 most clutch quarterbacks
based on WPA so we can literally ask Sphinx you know
find these 10 quarterbacks
give us a total WPA an average WPA and sort the table
descendingly by the total WPA
and Sphinx will create its game plan
over here on the left hand side
not a football game plan but a data science game plan
and then start writing the code itself to
(12:43):
to do this analysis
and finally it will give us our results
so starting at No. 10 we have Aaron Rodgers
once again he was No. 9 on our TV clutch list
so this is not a huge surprise here
anyway you slice it
Aaron Rodgers was a pretty clutch quarterback
is he now I don't know
but back in the day he was
No.9 is another current quarterback
and that is Mr Cool Joe Burrow
(13:06):
and there's a reason he has that name you guys
this guy performs when it means the most
and is able to make the big throws
when the game is in his hands
No.8
is a name that I hadn't heard of in a really long time
and it honestly really surprised me
Carson Palmer if you're anything like me
you haven't thought about that in a while
but while he was playing
he had some pretty clutch moments
No.7 was on our previous list as well
(13:27):
and it's Andrew Luck once again
this guy was on the trajectory of becoming
one of the best quarterbacks
of all time and it's a shame
we didn't get to watch the rest of his career
No. 6 is Matthew Stafford
also a current quarterback and it's well deserved
he is one of my favorite clutch plays ever
and he's really like
done a lot of clutch things in his career
both as the Lions quarterback
and now as the Rams quarterback
(13:49):
No. 5 is NFL legend Peyton Manning
yes before he did all the broadcasting stuff
he was a really good quarterback
and made some absolutely clutch plays
No. 4 is Patrick Mahomes
and I was honestly kind of like
I can't believe he's so low on this list
but once again very clutch quarterback
has been on an absolute tear with the Chiefs
and has made a lot of the biggest throws
in NFL history No.3 is Big Ben Roethlisberger
(14:13):
a Steelers legend was in it forever
made some great clutch plays
No. 2 on this list actually kind of surprised me
but it's kind of surprised
we haven't seen his name so much at all anymore
because he was such a good quarterback during his day
and that is Drew Brees
legend for the New Orleans Saints
always seems to make really good completions
like his percentage was always so high
(14:34):
wasn't doing anything fancy ever
but like pass after pass after pass
he just like charged down the field
and No. 1 the No. 1 clutch quarterback of all time
as defined by total WPA across his entire career is
drum roll please
the goat himself
Mister Tom Brady so in the end
(14:57):
data science
kind of already proved what we already knew
deep down right there you have it
the 10 most clutch quarterbacks
as proven by data science
now I challenge you to make your own clutch list
especially if you hate this clutch list
let me know in the comments down below if you hate it
and why you think I'm wrong
but you can create your own by downloading Sphinx
using the link below
(15:17):
and you can get my own Jupiter notebook
and play around with my code template
create something similar with football and actually
you know change the parameters of clutch
or use a different metric
instead of WPA you can use something called EPA
which is another one of those crazy NFL advanced stats
or you can do something totally different
and do it with the NBA or with soccer
or with cricket or you don't have to do sports at all
that is the beauty of something like Sphinx
(15:38):
is it helps you create awesome analysis
that would take you hours on your own
and probably will still take you hours with Sphinx
but a lot faster I'm excited to see what you make
and I'm excited to see you
hit the subscribe button as well right
see you in the next one
everyone thinks
they know who the most clutch quarterback in NFL
history is Tom Brady with his Super Bowl comebacks
Josh Allen in the playoffs
or Aaron Rodgers with impossible throws
everyone has opinions but what does the data say
well I'm a data scientist
so I fed Python every play from the last 25 years
over 1 million plays every pressure moment
(00:22):
every game winning drive and then
I let math and statistics decide
who really performs the most
when it matters the most and the most statistically
clutch quarterback in NFL history is
someone you definitely weren't expecting
now analyzing
patterns across 1 million football plays is not easy
(00:43):
even with Python so I use today's sponsor
Sphinx
to help me process this massive dataset in Python
to identify these statistical patterns that reveal
who is the most clutch quarterback of all time
more on Sphinx in a bit but before I reveal
the most clutch quarterback of all time
which I promise I will get to very soon
let's start a timer for 30 seconds
(01:04):
we have a huge problem what even is clutch
it's pretty hard to define
but we know it happens during crunch time right
and that we can basically say
is when the game is almost over and the score is close
for now we'll say that
clutch time is when the score is within one touchdown
so that's like Seven Points
and it's in the last eighth of the game
or the last 7:30 of the fourth quarter
(01:26):
or it's in overtime but even then
how do we quantify clutch
like numerically well
we'll use two different definitions today
No. 1 TV clutch and No. 2
advanced analytics clutch
let's go ahead and start with TV clutch
coming in at No. 10 on TV Clutch is Josh Freeman
surprisingly now
I know he didn't have an incredible career
(01:47):
but he definitely has some highlight moments
now this one kind of surprised me
I did not see Josh Freeman being on this list
but he did have one really good season
so maybe that's playing a big factor
No.9 is the controversial Aaron Rodgers
and this shouldn't be a huge surprise
as Aaron has had a ton of clutch plays
throughout his entire career
specifically with the Green Bay Packers
(02:09):
No.8 is Tony Romo yes
that is the now lead NFL analyst for CBS
who makes some very strange noises sometimes
but he had some very clutch plays for the Cowboys
back in the day coming in at No. 7 is Rich Gannon
I'm going to be honest I had to look him up
he's a little bit before my time
but it looks like he had a little bit of a late
career resurgence with the Oakland Raiders
(02:30):
and ultimately
won the league MVP and took them to the Super Bowl
No.6 is disappointingly Deshaun Watson
not much to say here so moving on to No. 5
and it's the Greatest Show on Turf
Mr Kurt Warner fantastic story of going undrafted
to almost getting kicked out of the NFL
two league MVP and Super Bowl champion
(02:51):
No.4 is Jake Delhomme his season in 2,003
LED the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl
earning the team the nickname the Cardiac Cats
due to the numerous
game winning drives in the fourth quarter
or overtime and those are all really things to Delhomme
he set a franchise record
with seven game winning drives
in that 2003 season alone
(03:12):
No. 3 is Andrew Luck and man
I totally get why he retired early
like I I make sense
but I would have loved to see the rest of his career
because he was absolutely incredible
and was a very clutch coming in at No. 2
it should really surprise no one
it's Patrick Mahomes don't need to say much here
he is very clutch
he's been on an incredible run the last eight years
(03:32):
leading to three Super Bowl wins
in five Super Bowl appearances
the only surprise here is he wasn't No. 1
and lastly at No. 1
the most clutch quarterback via TV is Tom Tua
Tonga Vaiaoloa yes
somehow Tua is the most clutch quarterback of all time
it's not Tom Brady question Mark
I don't get it if you know much about the NFL
(03:53):
you'll know that this result
it's kind of crazy
Tua isn't exactly known as a clutch quarterback
and honestly kind of has a reputation of being
maybe the opposite of clutch
so with that
let's talk about how he came up with his top 10
and the analytics that LED us to this point
so what is TV clutch well
it's a term that our AI data science co pilot
Sphinx created for us
(04:14):
it combines things that we can easily see on TV
in terms of clutchness touchdowns
interceptions completion percentages
those types of things
as well as how often they were in clutch situations
so let's rewind for a second here
and I'll tell you how we got this top 10
and how you can replicate this exact same analysis
on your own even if you're not a programmer
you're not very technical at all
and you don't know Python
(04:34):
so I start out by using NFL versus
Python package called NFL Data
Pie to download the last 25 years of play by play data
but instead of taking hours to understand how this API
works and write all the code myself
I just asked Sphinx to get the data for me
in plain English
Sphinx then went and read all of the API docs
(04:55):
to understand how the API works
and automatically wrote the code
for me to get all that play by play data
now could I have done that all on my own
absolutely it just would have taken me a lot of time
and I'm trying to pump out
really high quality episodes
for you guys
so it was really nice to have a little bit of a co
pilot to write this code for me
it ended up retrieving the last 25 seasons
which averages to around 45,000 plays per season
(05:18):
which is a total of 1.18 million rows of data
and it has 300 columns that let us know who is playing
where the ball is what the result of the play and a lot
lot more pretty sweet right
awesome dataset well
of course we actually aren't interested
in all 1.18 million plays
only the plays that fit the clutch criteria
that we stated earlier
(05:38):
which is basically the last 1/8 of a one score game
and so all I needed to do was tell Sphinx that
that's what I'm interested in doing
and it will create this filter for me on my data
so you notice I just spell it out in plain English
and tell exactly what I want
and the cool part is
it's actually smart enough to find the right column
names to do this filter
as well as do things like check for missing data
(05:59):
without me explicitly telling it to do so
and finally it writes the code to do the filter
and now we have a Python data frame
with only the plays that fall into our clutch category
next
we want to analyze the quarterback part of our data
because this is play by play data
which has data about
everyone and everything that's going on
but we're really only interested
in clutch quarterback performance
(06:20):
and you'll see in the data
that we definitely
have a lot of quarterback names going on
as well as whether it was a completed pass
whether it was a touchdown
or whether was an interception
yards completed all that good stuff
now this is where we can ask our co pilot
Sphinx to analyze all the existing plays
and using only touchdowns
interceptions completion percentage
yards and clutch attempts
we can tell it to create a TV Clutch Factor score
(06:43):
and ask it to rank by the most clutch quarterbacks
based upon that score now Sphinx
our copilot gets to work
and first it does the aggregation
for all of the quarterback pass plays
and calculates all of the completions and touchdowns
interceptions and the yards gained
as a reminder our data was the play by play data
not quarterback clutch season stats
so this step is absolutely necessary
(07:05):
to kind of clean the data
aggregate it
manipulate it in a way that makes it usable for us
then this code calculates what's called a Z score
for each one of those different metrics
if you're unfamiliar with the Z score
it's basically a measure
of how many standard deviations
a specific data point is
away from the mean of that data set
indicating its position within a distribution
(07:26):
which is basically in layman's terms
how much better or worse is a quarterback
from the average quarterback
based on these stats basically
this is what you need to know
a Z score of 0 means you're very average quarterback
a Z score of 1 means you're above average
and a Z score of negative 1 means you're below average
for that particular stat
our python code then creates a formula
(07:47):
where the touchdown Z scores
the yard Z scores
and the completion percentage scores are all good
and interceptions the scores are bad
and out of the other end of this formula
comes our top 10 list from earlier
with the most clutch quarterbacks
where Tua Tonga by Lowa
somehow is the most clutch quarterback of all time
now if this is your first time seeing Sphinx
hopefully you realize how cool it is
(08:07):
and how useful it can be
it's basically a co pilot for anyone working with data
it currently ships as a VS code extension
that interfaces with Jupiter
and other compatible notebooks
it runs in your environments alongside you
which first makes it safe and second
makes it easy to use
and it can access data through Python APIs
or it even has MCP
(08:28):
capabilities with things like snowflake
or Databricks or Big Query or Salesforce
whatever you're using
and you can learn more about Sphinx
and get started for free
using the link in the description down below
now once again if you know anything about football
you'd really question how on earth
can the current quarterback of the Miami Dolphins
Tua Tonga Vealua
be the most clutch quarterback of all time
(08:49):
and is it like
possible that Tony Romo can even be in the top 10
and the answer to that is I don't know
it's hard to know but we only really use basic stats
like touchdowns and completions and interceptions
earlier and that is a little bit basic
the good news is that the NFL stat heads
all of these NFL data analysts and data scientists
and all these smart people
have created other stats that are able to capture
(09:09):
how unique and how clutch a play is
and one of the things they created is called the win
probability added or WPA for short
and it's a bit hard to understand
and it would be an entirely
separate video to explain it in full
but basically every play in a football game changes
the chance that a team wins
or loses but specifically wins
WPA measures how much that play changes your odds
(09:31):
so for example in 2024 the Washington Commanders
were losing to the Chicago Bears
15 to 12
the commanders had the ball with two seconds left
on their own 48 yard line
they basically had a current chance of winning of 17%
Jaden Daniels is playing quarterback and as you can see
he drops back he's has to throw this
now basically they have to score a touchdown
(09:51):
so he has to throw it 60 yards 17% chance of winning
they score a touchdown
they win and you can kind of see that
he has to run away from all these guys
trying to sack him goes to the other side of the field
he's now look at this
he's at his 30 yard line he has to throw it 70 yards
there's the ball being thrown
it's in the air flies up
(10:13):
you'll see that
the ball pops out and is caught for a touchdown
and Washington wins the game
now
that is a very high WPA because the time has expired
there's no time left they'll now be at 18 points
and they have beaten the bears pretty much
no matter what happens cause there's no time left
so obviously that play was a very high WPA
now a WPA of 0
(10:35):
would be a play that does not change
the effect of the game at all
for example most kickoffs that result in a touchback
have a WPA of zero
cause it's a standard play that happens multiple times
the game and doesn't really affect what happens
it's really just like okay
the ball starts on
like the 30 yard line or whatever it is
a negative WPA
would be when the offense makes a really
(10:56):
costly mistake where they were going to win the game
but now they're probably not
for example this Josh Allen interception
in this situation it is overtime
the bills are playing the Minnesota Vikings
the Vikings are winning 33 to 30
but Buffalo the bills
have the ball with Josh Allen as quarterback there
is a minute left and they're on the 20 yard line
(11:18):
so all Josh Allen has to do is score a touchdown
and the game is over and the bills win
and Josh Allen's really good
so there is a current 74% chance of winning
when this ball is snapped
you'll see that Josh Allen gets the ball
he looks he looks pump fakes throws interception
the Vikings have the ball and they slide
(11:39):
and now Vikings end the game
because you only get one possession
I think at this time during the NFL
but even if that wasn't the case
they could just kneel and the game would be all over
so the game officially is over
Josh Allen has thrown a game losing interception
to make his team lose that would be extremely low
uh WPA
in fact they went from a 74% chance of winning to a 0%
(12:01):
so that's negative point seven four not good
now that we understand WPA
we know that a high positive value means you are clutch
and a low
negative value means you are the opposite of clutch
the play by play data that we actually downloaded
has WPA for every single play
which is really awesome for us
because that means that we can ask Sphinx
(12:21):
to find the 10 most clutch quarterbacks
based on WPA so we can literally ask Sphinx you know
find these 10 quarterbacks
give us a total WPA an average WPA and sort the table
descendingly by the total WPA
and Sphinx will create its game plan
over here on the left hand side
not a football game plan but a data science game plan
and then start writing the code itself to
(12:43):
to do this analysis
and finally it will give us our results
so starting at No. 10 we have Aaron Rodgers
once again he was No. 9 on our TV clutch list
so this is not a huge surprise here
anyway you slice it
Aaron Rodgers was a pretty clutch quarterback
is he now I don't know
but back in the day he was
No.9 is another current quarterback
and that is Mr Cool Joe Burrow
(13:06):
and there's a reason he has that name you guys
this guy performs when it means the most
and is able to make the big throws
when the game is in his hands
No.8
is a name that I hadn't heard of in a really long time
and it honestly really surprised me
Carson Palmer if you're anything like me
you haven't thought about that in a while
but while he was playing
he had some pretty clutch moments
No.7 was on our previous list as well
(13:27):
and it's Andrew Luck once again
this guy was on the trajectory of becoming
one of the best quarterbacks
of all time and it's a shame
we didn't get to watch the rest of his career
No. 6 is Matthew Stafford
also a current quarterback and it's well deserved
he is one of my favorite clutch plays ever
and he's really like
done a lot of clutch things in his career
both as the Lions quarterback
and now as the Rams quarterback
(13:49):
No. 5 is NFL legend Peyton Manning
yes before he did all the broadcasting stuff
he was a really good quarterback
and made some absolutely clutch plays
No. 4 is Patrick Mahomes
and I was honestly kind of like
I can't believe he's so low on this list
but once again very clutch quarterback
has been on an absolute tear with the Chiefs
and has made a lot of the biggest throws
in NFL history No.3 is Big Ben Roethlisberger
(14:13):
a Steelers legend was in it forever
made some great clutch plays
No. 2 on this list actually kind of surprised me
but it's kind of surprised
we haven't seen his name so much at all anymore
because he was such a good quarterback during his day
and that is Drew Brees
legend for the New Orleans Saints
always seems to make really good completions
like his percentage was always so high
(14:34):
wasn't doing anything fancy ever
but like pass after pass after pass
he just like charged down the field
and No. 1 the No. 1 clutch quarterback of all time
as defined by total WPA across his entire career is
drum roll please
the goat himself
Mister Tom Brady so in the end
(14:57):
data science
kind of already proved what we already knew
deep down right there you have it
the 10 most clutch quarterbacks
as proven by data science
now I challenge you to make your own clutch list
especially if you hate this clutch list
let me know in the comments down below if you hate it
and why you think I'm wrong
but you can create your own by downloading Sphinx
using the link below
(15:17):
and you can get my own Jupiter notebook
and play around with my code template
create something similar with football and actually
you know change the parameters of clutch
or use a different metric
instead of WPA you can use something called EPA
which is another one of those crazy NFL advanced stats
or you can do something totally different
and do it with the NBA or with soccer
or with cricket or you don't have to do sports at all
that is the beauty of something like Sphinx
(15:38):
is it helps you create awesome analysis
that would take you hours on your own
and probably will still take you hours with Sphinx
but a lot faster I'm excited to see what you make
and I'm excited to see you
hit the subscribe button as well right
see you in the next one
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