The Football Fairy Tale Built on a PhD: How Tiny Mjällby AIF Used Visual Perception Science to Conquer Sweden's Top League🎧 Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music and other streaming services! Don’t forget to subscribe, share, and leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ review to help more players and coaches discover the power of Techne Futbol and Data Technology in the beautiful game.We provide an overview of the Norwegian football coach Karl Marius Aksum and the exceptional success of the Swedish professional club Mjällby AIF in the top-tier Allsvenskan league. Aksum is highlighted as an assistant coach at Mjällby with a PhD in visual perception in elite football, demonstrating a unique academic and cognitive science approach to coaching. Mjällby AIF is portrayed as a small-village team achieving an unprecedented near-title win in the 2025 season, driven by strategic planning and data-driven decisions. Supporting information from Transfermarkt confirms Mjällby's first-place standing and current squad composition, while FootyStats provides detailed statistical evidence of their excellent form, including strong scoring (1.81 goals/match) and defensive records (0.65 goals conceded/match). Finally, we note the overall strategic direction of the Swedish Professional Football Leagues and the organizational focus of other Scandinavian youth academies like AIK.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to the Deep Dive. OK, get ready for this one
because we are diving head firstinto a story that honestly, it
sounds like pure fiction, like asports fairy tale, right?
Absolutely. If you wrote the script, people
would say it's too unbelievable.Exactly.
We're talking about Minjelbi AIFA team from a tiny, tiny
village leading Sweden's top Football League, the ALS
(00:23):
Venskin. And not just leading, but
potentially on track for a record season.
And that's the core of our mission today.
For you listening, we want to unpack this because it's really
not luck, not even close. This is well, it's a master
class. In what though?
In strategy, in really smart data-driven decisions, and maybe
most fascinatingly, how they're applying some seriously advanced
(00:46):
sports science and psychology right there on the pitch, we're
going to dismantle the idea thatthis is just some fluke.
Yeah, peeling back the layers onthe fairy tale to find the the
science in the system underneath.
Because like you said, they're threatening records.
Malmo holds the current points record, 67 points.
Mere B is right up there. Which is just incredible for a
club of their size. It really shows how, you know,
21st century thinking that intellectual edge can genuinely
(01:10):
compete with, well, old school financial muscle.
They've got a system and right now it is absolutely firing.
OK, so let's set the scene properly, because the context
here is just everything. When we say you'll be AIS, we
mean Hellavic. Right.
Not Stockholm, not Gothenburg, no.
Exactly, this is a remote fishing village like picture
(01:31):
postcard remote right on the Baltic Seacoast.
Population around 800 people. 800 I mean that's barely enough
for a village fate, let alone a top flight football club.
And yet their stadium, Strand Valley, holds 6000 people.
It's wild, isn't it? The stadium fits 8 times the
village population. There's that great description.
You know, if you hoof the ball hard enough over the goal.
It lands in the Baltic Sea. Yeah, that image just perfectly
(01:54):
captures their kind of beautifulisolation.
And that isolation, well, it, ittranslates directly into a huge
financial disadvantage, right? They're up against clubs for big
cities, big sponsorships, big crowds.
Oh, absolutely. We can put numbers on it.
Their total turnover last year? About $9 million.
Which sounds like a lot until you compare.
It exactly. You look at Malmo, their main
(02:15):
rival right now. Estimates put Ming Shelby's
entire budget at maybe 1/8 of Malmo.
'S 1/8. That's not a gap, that's a
Canyon. It really is.
And somehow they're leading the league.
And crucially, they're doing it without the usual modern
football fuel. No outside venture capital,
boring and money. Right.
No. Billionaire owner.
(02:35):
No. Oil state backing.
No inherited dynasty, just them.So that immediately begs the
question, how, if you can't buy your way to the top, where did
this turn around actually start?Well, it wasn't like flipping a
switch. It seems to have been a slow
burn, a real organizational shift that began around 2015.
You got to remember this club was founded way back in 1939.
(02:56):
Yeah, they weren't always this giant killer.
Not at all. Just nine years ago, they were
fighting tooth and nail to avoiddropping into Sweden's 4th tier.
They were basically on the brink.
So what changed in 2015? A new chairman came in Magnus
Emmaus, a local businessman, andhe essentially brought modern
business thinking into the club.Like proper strategy, OK.
(03:17):
Applying business methodology toa football club, What did that
look like? It meant treating it like a
lean, smart organization. They adopted this internal
mantra, which I think is brilliant.
Make the impossible possible. I like that, yeah.
And they backed it up. Formal strategic plans setting
really ambitious goals and this core commitment focus heavily on
(03:39):
developing their own homegrown players.
So the Academy, the youth setup,became central.
Absolutely central. It became their main asset
really, both for getting resultson the pitch and, you know, for
financial stability down the line through player sales.
They couldn't buy stars, so theyhad to make them.
It sounds like that classic business principle.
Figure out what you can be the best at, especially when
(04:01):
resources are tight. What were the free things they
identified? That's the clever bit.
They really focused on maximizing what they called the
things which are free. Like what team spirit?
Exactly. Team spirit, building a strong
collective culture, obsessive dedication to preparation, game
readiness. These are things that don't cost
millions in transfer fees, right?
(04:22):
They require intellectual capital, focus, commitment, not
just cash. And this local connection seems
vital to you mentioned the staff.
Oh, it's amazing. The commitment is deep because
the roots are deep. The head coach?
He's also a school principal. No way.
Yeah, they're Chief Scout. He's the local postman.
You're kidding. Seriously.
And most of the squad are eitherfrom the village or the
(04:43):
surrounding area that creates this.
Incredible social glue. You just can't buy that kind of
shared investment in success. It makes sense.
It means people are there for more than just the paycheck.
It probably helps keep costs down too and builds resilience
when things inevitably. Get tough.
Precisely. It stabilizes the whole
operation. They weren't just trying to
survive year to year. They were building something
(05:05):
sustainable, something efficient, designed to compete
smartly, not just expensively. OK.
So that robust locally grounded structure was the foundation and
that foundation then allowed them to bring in the really high
level academic brainpower. Exactly.
The organization was ready, the culture was right, but the real
X Factor, the scientific accelerant, arrived with
(05:26):
assistant coach Karl Marius Axum.
This is where we go from smart business to like PhD level
football science. Axum's background is
fascinating. It's not your typical coaching
CV, is it? Lay it out for us.
No, it's really quite unique, especially for a club like
Amyelby. He holds a PhD in visual
perception in elite football. Visual Perception.
Yeah, from the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences.
(05:48):
And on top of the PhD, he also has a master's in coaching and
sport psychology. So we're talking deep scientific
understanding of how players seethe game, how they process
information under pressure, how they learn.
Wow, OK, I'm just picturing him walking into that clubhouse in
Hellavic, fresh out of academia,talking about visual saccades
and cognitive load. The guys who've been playing
(06:09):
professionally for 15 years. Was there pushback?
Skepticism. Oh, for sure.
He's apparently quite open aboutthat.
He knew his ideas were mostly, you know, in his head and on
paper at that point, not really battle tested in the day-to-day
of elite coaching. Right theory versus practice.
But the Melby leadership, building on that smart
foundation we talked about, theysaw something different.
(06:30):
They weren't just hiring anothercoach to run drills.
They were hiring someone to fundamentally change how their
players learn and understand thegame.
They wanted that deep scientificinsight.
So how does a PhD in visual perception actually translate to
the training pitch? What does that look like in a
drill? It sounds very abstract.
(06:50):
It starts with this core principle.
Everything, absolutely everything, has to be game
specific. No more isolated drills like
just dribbling around cones for hours.
So context matters. Hugely.
Every single training session starts with a clear tactical
intention, a specific game problem they're trying to solve.
Axiom focuses relentlessly on that cycle players constantly go
(07:13):
through in a match. You have to perceive what's
happening, the ball, teammates, opponents, space.
Then you have to decide what to do fast, and finally you have to
execute the skill. His training is all about
sharpening and speeding up that perception decision loop.
So it's mental training integrated directly into
physical training, Yeah. How do you replicate the chaos
(07:33):
and the pressure of a real matchconsistently in training?
You can't just play 11 V 11 all day.
Right. And this is where his key
concept comes in. Repetition without repetition.
OK, unpack. That sounds like a
contradiction. It does, but it's brilliant.
Aksum argues that traditional drills where you repeat the
exact same movement or pass hundreds of times builds muscle
memory. Sure, but football is way too
(07:54):
chaotic and unpredictable for that to be the main way players
learn. You never face the exact same
situation twice. So repeating the same thing
actually makes you less adaptable.
In a way yes, it can stifle the decision making part of the
brain. So repetition without repetition
means creating game like scenarios where players are
(08:15):
never told exactly exactly what to do.
Give us an example how would that work?
OK, let's say they're working onplaying out from the back
against a high press. They might set up a situation,
maybe establish 1 core principlethey want to see.
Like we need to try and find a diagonal pass forward through
midfield, not just sideways, right?
They'll run that basic scenario,say 15 or 20 times in a row.
(08:37):
But here's the key. Each time the starting position
of the defenders might shift slightly, the pressure might
come from a different angle. The past before it might be
weighted differently. I see.
So the core task find the diagonal past stays the same,
but the specific context changesevery single time.
Exactly. The players have to constantly
(08:58):
reevaluate, re perceive and makea fresh decision based on the
subtle changes. They're repeating the problem
solving process, not the exact physical movement.
That forces them to stay mentally switched on.
Completely. It maximizes what axiom calls
cognitive intensity. If you're just following
instructions, your brain can kind of go on autopilot, but if
you're constantly forced to analyze, decide, and execute
(09:20):
under pressure, your brain is working at game speed.
In a game like way, you're teaching players to find
solutions, not just obey orders.And that must fundamentally
change the way coaches interact with players, especially the
experienced ones. Oh absolutely.
It shifts it from a top down command style to something much
more collaborative. Axiom shared this great story
(09:40):
about coaching their 34 year oldcenter back, a guy with like 15
years playing across Europe. Yeah, he probably knows a thing
or two about defending. Right.
Oxen basically said it would be stupid for him, the coach, to
stand there yelling instructionsabout every single movement to a
player with that much experience.
So how do you coach him then if you're not telling him what to
do? You guide, you prompt, you offer
(10:02):
alternatives. Instead of shouting, play the
diagonal pass. Now it becomes more like, OK,
what if you held your position for just one more second there,
let the attacker commit, then make the pass.
How might that change things? So you're engaging their
experience, asking them to thinkthrough the options.
Exactly. You're inviting their input
(10:22):
trying to merge the coach's theoretical understanding with
the players practical on field wisdom.
And crucially, Exum acknowledgesreality.
If a player maybe isn't quick enough to make that super
aggressive interception the coach ideally wants, they work
together to find a slightly different, maybe safer solution
that fits that player's actual abilities.
(10:43):
It's theory tailored to the individual.
That kind of respect must build huge trust, which you absolutely
need if you're asking players tobuy into a system that involves
risk like they're high pressed will get into.
Totally. And this collaborative approach
links to another tool they use quite cleverly, video analysis,
but maybe not in the way most teams use it.
Aksum kind of jokingly calls it manipulative video use.
(11:06):
Often video sessions focus heavily on mistakes, right?
Showing players what they did wrong, Yeah.
The dreaded correction session. M Shelby flips that.
They apparently spend way more time showing clips of the things
they want to see more of, successful examples of their
high press working or playing out effectively under pressure.
They specifically highlight the positive outcome.
(11:26):
See, we did this. Won the ball back high, created
a chance. So using video as positive
reinforcement to build belief inthe system.
Precisely. They're effectively selling the
players on the idea that the system, even the risky parts,
works. It reinforces the cognitive
patterns they're building in training and builds that
collective confidence they need to take on the bigger clubs.
(11:47):
It's psychology in action. OK, so we've got the solid
organization, the local roots, and this fascinating academic
psychological approach to training.
Now let's get into the nuts and bolts.
How does this translate onto thepitch?
What system are they actually playing?
The foundation for everything isA343 formation.
Right. Three center backs, 4
midfielders, 3 forwards. Why that structure?
(12:10):
It's a really interesting choicefor them.
It gives you that inherent defensive stability with the
three central defenders, which is always helpful when you maybe
don't have individually dominantplayers across the back.
But crucially, it offers huge flexibility going forward.
Those wing backs and the four have license to really bomb on.
And this system marks a real change from Jelby, doesn't it?
(12:30):
They weren't always known for being expansive.
No, Historically there were muchmore pragmatic, defensive sit,
deep, hope for a chance on the break.
Survival football, really. But not anymore.
Definitely not under the currentcoaching staff.
They've embraced a much more proactive possession based
style. Their average possession stats
are apparently the highest in the club's history, around 51%,
(12:54):
which might not sound dominant compared to say, Man City, but
for Mel B that's a huge shift. Their whole attacking identity
now revolves around being compact, lots of rotation and
clever movement off the ball. OK, let's trace the ball's
journey. How do they start things off in
the low build up phase, especially if the opponent
presses them high? This is where their fluidity
(13:14):
really shows that base 343 oftenmorphs into something more like
a 4223 shape right at the start.How does that happen?
Where does the 4th defender comefrom?
The goalkeeper, he steps up often way outside his penalty
area, acting like an extra outfield player.
The sweeper keeper role. Exactly, but really actively
involved in the build up. This creates this diamond or box
(13:37):
shape deep in their own half, often giving them A4V2 or 4V3
advantage against the opponent'sfirst wave of pressure.
That extra man must make it really hard for the opponent to
press effectively. Yeah, what's the goal with this
deep structure? Primarily it's about security
and finding ways to progress theball cleanly.
They look for short, sharp passes.
They use a lot of third man combinations.
(13:58):
Explain that term third man combinations.
OK, so instead of just passing player A to player B, and then B
may B passes back to A or tries to turn, they look for player C.
So A passes to B, who lays it off first time to see who's
often facing forward and has bypassed the initial pressure.
It's about using that third player as a quick, unexpected
(14:19):
outlet to break the press. Lots of movement, lots of
rotation is key to opening thosepassing lanes.
But what if a team goes super aggressive, tries to cut off all
those short options centrally? Does the system breakdown then?
Are they dogmatic about playing short?
No, and that's a sign of smart coaching, not rigidity.
If they get really pressed hard and the short passes aren't on,
(14:40):
they have a Plan B. They're not afraid to go direct.
They'll target their main striker, Jacob Bergstrom.
He's a big physical presence, really good in the air and
holding the ball up. So if the short game is blocked,
bang, direct ball to Bergstrom. He fights for it, holds it,
brings teammates into play higher up the pitch.
It means opponents can't just gamble everything on stopping
the short buildup. Gelby keeps them honest.
(15:01):
Smart. OK, so they bypassed that
initial press, maybe using shortpasses or the long option.
Now they're moving higher up thepitch, the high buildup phase.
How does the shape change then? It becomes even more attacking.
They typically transition into adistinct 3 to 5 shape.
Three defenders, 2 deep midfielders and five players
pushed right up. Exactly.
(15:22):
Those two deeper midfielders, the 2 foot provide cover in
front of the back three, and thefive foot consists of the three
forwards staying relatively central.
And crucially, those two wing backs pushing extremely high and
wide. Like really aggressive
positioning. And you mentioned compactness
earlier. How does that fit in here when
they have five players so far forward?
(15:43):
That's the critical part. Even with five players high, the
distances between all the players, defense, midfield,
attack are kept deliberately short.
They aim for extreme compactness.
Why is that so important in attack?
It seems counterintuitive. Don't want to stretch the field?
You stretch it with the wingbacks positioning, but the
short distances between players offer two massive advantages.
(16:05):
First, speed of play. Shorter passes travel quicker,
right? So they can circulate the ball
much faster, making it incredibly hard for the defense
to shift and adjust in time. OK, faster ball movement.
What's the second advantage? Security.
This links back to them being, you know, not the richest club.
That compactness provides fantastic rest, defense,
(16:26):
stability. If they do lose a ball high up
the pitch, they're already closetogether.
They can immediately swarm the ball, counter press, and often
win it back before the opponent can even think about launching a
counter attack. Their attacking shape is also
their first line of defense. Clever.
So when they're trying to actually break down the
opponent's defense in this 325, where do they focus their
(16:47):
efforts? Through the middle.
Out wide, the main priority is definitely progressing through
the center. They want to play sharp,
vertical passes that break the opponent's midfield line.
How do they create the space forthose central passes?
This is where the midfielders intelligence really shines.
Those 4 central players, the 2 deep ones and the two more
advanced midfielders playing just behind the striker.
(17:10):
They show incredible positional fluidity.
They don't just stick to fixed spots, they're constantly
rotating, swapping positions, forming little diamonds, then
maybe a box shape, then maybe staggering themselves.
All designed to confuse the markers.
Exactly. That constant movement aims to
drag defenders out of position, create confusion and, crucially,
(17:30):
open up those vertical passing lanes into dangerous areas.
And you mentioned diagonal passes earlier in the context of
visual perception. Yeah, it's that key here too.
Hugely important. The diagonal pass is one of
their core principles for unlocking a defense.
Playing diagonally rather than just straight vertical or
horizontal forces the entire defensive block to shift and
(17:52):
adjust in a more complex way. It disrupts their structure.
And where are they trying to play these diagonal passes to?
They're aiming for players receiving the ball in what
coaches often called the pockets.
To find the pocket for us, What space is that?
The pocket is that valuable bit of space that opens up between
the opponent's defensive line and their midfield line.
Often it's just in front of the center backs or just behind the
(18:15):
opposition midfielders. Why is receiving the ball there
so dangerous? Because if you get a player
facing forward in that pocket, they've essentially bypassed 2
lines of the opposition defense.The defense is now immediately
threatened and has to react. Does a center back step out to
engage, leaving space behind? Does a midfielder track back?
It forces difficult split seconddecisions, creates uncertainty
(18:38):
and that's when attacking opportunities really open up.
OK, so they've used their fluid movement in diagonal passes to
find a player in the pocket, right?
What happens next? Does the pace change?
Instantly, the moment they access that pocket, the
controlled buildup switches gears.
It becomes about immediate vertical penetration attack mode
engage. How do they generate that
penetration? Bergstrom, the striker, plays a
(19:00):
key role by pinning the opposition center backs,
occupying them, stopping them from stepping out easily.
Then you get these aggressive driving runs from others.
Who makes the runs? The wing backs, we have to talk
about Stroud and especially Herman Johansson.
They make darting runs from widepositions, often aiming towards
the box, and the midfielders whodidn't receive the ball in the
(19:21):
pocket will also make forward runs looking to flood the
penalty area and attack space behind the defense.
You keep mentioning the wing backs being crucial offensively.
Johansson's stats are apparentlyoff the charts for a wing back.
They really are. He and Stroud are expected to
cover the entire length of the pitch.
They provide the width in the 325 shape, yes, but their most
(19:43):
dangerous moments often come when they make runs inside
towards the penalty spot or verycommonly towards the back post.
Why the back post specifically? It's a deliberate tactic.
If Emilby draws the opposition defense towards the ball on one
side of the pitch, the opponent's fullback on the far
side often gets sucked in field.Maybe tracking a midfielders
run? That leaves a huge amount of
(20:04):
space at the back post and that's where the men you'll be.
Wingback arrives often unmarked to finish the move or knock it
back across goal. Johansson's goal and assist
numbers are proof that this system is perfectly designed to
get the wing backs into scoring positions.
He's like a hybrid winger, full back forward.
Right, The attacking plan is intricate, fluid and clearly
(20:25):
effective. But you could argue their
defensive record is even more impressive.
Only 17 goals conceded in 26 games?
That's insane. How do they defend?
Is it just parking the bus? Absolutely not.
Their defense is just as proactive, just as intense as
their attack, maybe even more so.
Proactive defense. What does that mean in practice?
It means they don't just sit back and wait to react to what
(20:46):
the opponent does, they activelytry to dictate the play without
the ball. Their primary aim when defending
isn't just to stop the opponent scoring, it's to win the ball
back as quickly and as high up the pitch as possible so they
can immediately transition back into attack themselves.
It's relentless aggression. And that aggression starts right
at the front with the high press.
(21:07):
Yep, it's fun of at least their style.
They press intensely and it's often very man to man oriented
across the pitch. So players are responsible for
marking a specific opponent tightly.
Generally, yes. In the high press phase, the
goal is to certificate the opponent, deny them any easy
passing options out from the back, force them into rush
decisions, long hopeful balls ortechnical errors under pressure.
(21:30):
The objective isn't just to stopthem, but to profit from it.
Exactly. The tactical payoff is huge if
you win the ball back deep in the opponent's half.
They're usually structurally disorganized, unbalanced.
Nelly looks to exploit that instantly.
Maybe a quick switch of play to the far side where there's
space, or a direct Hass into theforwards.
It's high risk, definitely, but it's a calculated risk based on
(21:53):
their system. OK.
High risk, high reward. But what happens when that high
press inevitably gets broken? You know the opponent has
quality players, they play through it.
Are they suddenly wide open? That's the key challenge, isn't
it? And this is where that intense
training the cognitive intensityaxiom talks about really pays
off. Their reaction has to be
immediate and collective. If the first line of press is
(22:14):
bypassed, they don't panic. They execute a rapid, unified
retreat into a much more compactdefensive shape.
What shape is that? They typically drop into a very
solid 523 mid block or low press, so the wing backs drop
back alongside the three center backs to form a line of five.
The 2 central midfielders screenin front and the three forwards
stay connected but slightly higher.
(22:35):
Five at the back, so the priority shifts immediately to
defensive solidity. Yes, and specifically denying
central penetration. That 523 block is designed to
make it incredibly difficult to play through the middle.
The back 5 covers the width, thetwo midfielders clog the central
passing lanes, and even the front 3 will often stay quite
(22:56):
narrow to block passes into the opponent's midfielders.
They essentially funnel the opposition's attack towards the
wider areas. Where it's presumably less
dangerous. Generally, yes, an attack coming
from wide gives the defense moretime to shift across, and
crosses can be dealt with by thethree center backs.
But they don't just passively wait out wide either.
Even in this deeper block, they're looking for triggers to
(23:18):
press. What kind of triggers?
They practice this concept of squeezing the pitch.
It requires incredible coordination if the opponent
plays a slow pass sideways across their back line, or maybe
a negative pass backwards. Signals that the attack has
stalled. Exactly.
Those are triggers. The entire and Jolby team, all
10 outfield players will take a synchronized step up the pitch.
(23:41):
Maybe 5 yards, maybe 10. They maintain their compact
shape, but they collectively push the opponent further away
from their goal. So they're using the opponent's
lack of progress to actively regain territory.
Precisely, they do it step by step.
Slow sideways, pass, step up, backwards, pass, step up again.
It gradually forces the opposition further and further
(24:03):
back, increases the pressure, makes the pitch feel smaller for
them, and eventually leads to mistakes or hopeful long balls
that Mjolby can easily win back.It's suffocating pressure even
when they're technically in a deeper block.
That requires phenomenal communication and understanding
between the players. It really does.
And that brings us to probably the most distinctive, most
aggressive feature of their defense, the way they're wide
(24:25):
center backs play. OK, tell us about that.
That sounds unusual. It's quite advanced and very
brave. In many systems, center backs,
especially the wide ones in a back three, might hold their
position unless absolutely necessary.
Mcgelpie's wide center backs arecoached to be incredibly
aggressive in stepping out of the defensive line.
Stepping out Where to confront awinger?
(24:46):
Sometimes, but more significantly, they step out to
aggressively close down opposition midfielders who are
receiving the ball in that dangerous space between the
Elby's midfield and defensive lines.
Remember those pockets we talkedabout in attack?
They're just as dangerous defensively if the opponent
finds them. So the wide center back jumps
out to stop the opponent receiving facing forward in that
(25:08):
key area. Exactly, it's a proactive move
to kill the attack before it canreally threaten the back line
directly. But it leaves a massive hole
where the center back just was, right?
That sounds incredibly risky. It is incredibly risky and
that's why it only works with absolute drilled in collective
discipline. The risk they take is leaving
that space. The risk they mitigate is
(25:28):
allowing a dangerous player to turn in the pocket, so the
coordination has to be instant, almost automatic.
How do they cover that space? The moment that wide center back
commits and steps out, the othertwo center backs and the nearest
wing back have to immediately slide across.
They basically form a temporary back 4 for a split second,
shuffling over to cover the space that was just vacated.
(25:49):
Wow, so it's a dynamic defensiverotation happening in real time
based on the center back's aggressive move?
Yes, it's a momentary sacrifice of their base shape to achieve
immediate pressure on the ball in a critical zone.
It relies on every single playerknowing their role and reacting
instantly. It's probably the clearest
example of how their success isn't just about individual
(26:10):
talent. It's about a deeply understood,
highly coordinated, an incredibly disciplined
collective system. That's how they achieve such
defensive solidity despite playing so aggressively.
OK, we've gone deep on the organization, the psychology,
the tactics, both an attack and defense.
It all sounds impressive, coherent, but does it actually
work? Let's look at the cold, hard
(26:31):
numbers. Where do they stand?
Well, the numbers absolutely scream success.
As we mentioned, they're currently top of the Alzvanskin
table, first out of 16 teams. And the record?
Across the 26 matches played at the point this analysis was
done, their record was phenomenal. 19 wins, 6 draws and
just one single loss. One loss in 26 games.
Incredible consistency that translates to winning 73% of
(26:54):
their matches, and they're averaging a massive 2.42 points
per game. And put that 2.42 points per
game in context again. It's right up there with the
best seasons in the league's history.
It puts them firmly on track to potentially break Malmo's all
time points record of 67. It's elite territory.
What about goals? The balance between attack and
defense. The goal difference tells a
(27:16):
great story. Plus 30.
They've scored 47 goals and conceded only 17.
Break that down the defense 1st 17 conceded in 26 games.
That gives them the best defensive record in the entire
league. They're conceding, on average
just .65 goals per match, which is frankly staggering for any
team, let alone one playing withtheir level of proactive
(27:36):
pressing and, you know, aggressive center back play.
It just validates the discipline, the compactness, the
system. And the attack, 47 goals scored,
is that efficient or they just creating loads of chances?
This is where it gets really interesting and it ties back to
exums methods. I think the raw goal scoring
rate is strong. 1.81 goals scored per match, but when you
compare that to their underlyingnumbers, specifically expected
(27:59):
goals or XG. Right, the quality of chances
they create. Exactly, their XG for the number
of goals they should be scoring based on the chances is around
1.55 per match. But they're actually scoring
1.81. Correct.
They are consistently over performing their expected goals
by a significant margin, about 17%.
What does that gap tell you? Why are they scoring more than
(28:22):
the chances suggest they should?It suggests a couple of things,
likely working together. Either their players are just
incredibly clinical finishers when they get a site of goal or,
and this is where the psychologycomes in, their training that
focus on perception, decision, execution under pressure is
allowing them to make better choices, find better finishes,
execute more cleanly in those crucial moments then statistical
(28:45):
models would predict. So the cognitive training might
actually be leading to quantifiable over performance in
front of goal. It certainly points that way.
It suggests the efficiency isn'tjust luck, it's a result of
sharpening those decision makingprocesses in the final third.
They're making the absolute mostof the chances their system
creates for them. Let's talk about timing, too.
(29:06):
Is there a pattern to when they score or concede?
You mentioned they're strong finishers.
Yeah, there's a clear trend towards them being a second-half
team, meaning they score more goals on average after halftime.
Their average goals scored in the second-half is 1.000 per
game, compared to .81 in the first half.
What does that usually indicate?Better fitness, stronger
(29:28):
mentality. Often a combination of both.
It suggests superior physical conditioning.
They maintain their intensity while opponents might start to
tire. And it points to strong
psychological resilience, the ability to stick to the plan,
maybe make adjustments at halftime and keep pushing right
to the end. Again, you could potentially
link that back to the demanding nature of axioms training,
(29:49):
building that capacity for high cognitive and physical output
late in games. But there's a slight chink in
the armor. Statistically speaking, late
games. Yes, there is one area of
vulnerability that shows up in the data.
Despite their overall defensive strength, they do tend to
concede more goals late on. About 35% of the goals against
(30:10):
them come in the final 15 minutes from the 76 minute
onwards. Why might that be just fatigue
from the high intensity style that?
Would be the most likely explanation.
Maintaining that level of synchronized pressing, the
aggressive positioning, the constant concentration for a
full 90 minutes is incredibly demanding physically and
mentally. It seems that's the period where
(30:32):
cumulative fatigue might just slightly lower their resistance.
It's the biggest challenge of playing their way.
And finally, statistically, we have to circle back to the
player who seems to embody the system, Herman Johansen.
Absolutely. His numbers are the perfect
microcosm of their tactical success.
Remember, he plays primarily as a wing back, yet he leads the
team in both goals scored with 7and assists with eight.
(30:54):
A wing back leading in goals andassists.
It's exceptional, and it demonstrates perfectly how the
343 system is designed to get those wing backs into dangerous
attacking positions. His stats are concrete proof
that the tactical plan, the highpositioning, the runs to the
back post, the hybrid role is working exactly as intended.
(31:15):
He's the statistical exclamationpoint on their strategy.
Hashtag tag outro. So when you wrap it all up with
this incredible and Jelaby storyreally shows, I think for you
listening is that yeah, money matters in football.
Course it does. Financial power is huge, but
it's not the only thing, right? It's not insurmountable.
Not if you can counter it with other things like genuine
tactical innovation, like extreme levels of collective
(31:37):
effort and discipline, and maybemost importantly here, like the
courage to actually integrate deep, specialized academic
knowledge into your daily work. They brought in a PhD in visual
perception. That's thinking outside the box.
It really is. They use brainpower,
essentially, to compensate for buying power.
And it feels like this story transcends football, doesn't it?
It's a lesson about applying intelligence, about challenging
(31:59):
norms. Completely Nilby proves that
sometimes the most potent game changing ideas might be found in
places you wouldn't normally look in academic journals and
scientific theory in stuff that might seem purely head
knowledge. They dared to translate that
theory into practice. Yeah, they took the abstract and
made it concrete, made it win football matches.
(32:20):
Exactly. And that leaves us with a final
thought. Maybe a challenge for you.
We've seen how highly specialized academic insight,
cognitive science, learning theory, visual perception helped
transform this tiny village football club into a potential
record breaker. So the question is what
traditional industry, maybe the one you work in, is kind of
(32:40):
stuck in its ways? Where are things done just
because they've always been donethat way?
Right. What field is maybe overloaded
with information but struggling with effective practice?
Where could injecting some rigorous PhD level thinking,
some genuine cognitive science, maybe completely revolutionize
how things are done? Could the principles that lifted
Melby AIF also lift something else entirely?
(33:02):
The next MGLB miracle might not be in sport at all.
Something to definitely think about.
Welcome back to the Deep Dive. OK, get ready for this one
because we are diving head firstinto a story that honestly, it
sounds like pure fiction, like asports fairy tale, right?
Absolutely. If you wrote the script, people
would say it's too unbelievable.Exactly.
We're talking about Minjelbi AIFA team from a tiny, tiny
village leading Sweden's top Football League, the ALS
(00:23):
Venskin. And not just leading, but
potentially on track for a record season.
And that's the core of our mission today.
For you listening, we want to unpack this because it's really
not luck, not even close. This is well, it's a master
class. In what though?
In strategy, in really smart data-driven decisions, and maybe
most fascinatingly, how they're applying some seriously advanced
(00:46):
sports science and psychology right there on the pitch, we're
going to dismantle the idea thatthis is just some fluke.
Yeah, peeling back the layers onthe fairy tale to find the the
science in the system underneath.
Because like you said, they're threatening records.
Malmo holds the current points record, 67 points.
Mere B is right up there. Which is just incredible for a
club of their size. It really shows how, you know,
21st century thinking that intellectual edge can genuinely
(01:10):
compete with, well, old school financial muscle.
They've got a system and right now it is absolutely firing.
OK, so let's set the scene properly, because the context
here is just everything. When we say you'll be AIS, we
mean Hellavic. Right.
Not Stockholm, not Gothenburg, no.
Exactly, this is a remote fishing village like picture
(01:31):
postcard remote right on the Baltic Seacoast.
Population around 800 people. 800 I mean that's barely enough
for a village fate, let alone a top flight football club.
And yet their stadium, Strand Valley, holds 6000 people.
It's wild, isn't it? The stadium fits 8 times the
village population. There's that great description.
You know, if you hoof the ball hard enough over the goal.
It lands in the Baltic Sea. Yeah, that image just perfectly
(01:54):
captures their kind of beautifulisolation.
And that isolation, well, it, ittranslates directly into a huge
financial disadvantage, right? They're up against clubs for big
cities, big sponsorships, big crowds.
Oh, absolutely. We can put numbers on it.
Their total turnover last year? About $9 million.
Which sounds like a lot until you compare.
It exactly. You look at Malmo, their main
(02:15):
rival right now. Estimates put Ming Shelby's
entire budget at maybe 1/8 of Malmo.
'S 1/8. That's not a gap, that's a
Canyon. It really is.
And somehow they're leading the league.
And crucially, they're doing it without the usual modern
football fuel. No outside venture capital,
boring and money. Right.
No. Billionaire owner.
(02:35):
No. Oil state backing.
No inherited dynasty, just them.So that immediately begs the
question, how, if you can't buy your way to the top, where did
this turn around actually start?Well, it wasn't like flipping a
switch. It seems to have been a slow
burn, a real organizational shift that began around 2015.
You got to remember this club was founded way back in 1939.
(02:56):
Yeah, they weren't always this giant killer.
Not at all. Just nine years ago, they were
fighting tooth and nail to avoiddropping into Sweden's 4th tier.
They were basically on the brink.
So what changed in 2015? A new chairman came in Magnus
Emmaus, a local businessman, andhe essentially brought modern
business thinking into the club.Like proper strategy, OK.
(03:17):
Applying business methodology toa football club, What did that
look like? It meant treating it like a
lean, smart organization. They adopted this internal
mantra, which I think is brilliant.
Make the impossible possible. I like that, yeah.
And they backed it up. Formal strategic plans setting
really ambitious goals and this core commitment focus heavily on
(03:39):
developing their own homegrown players.
So the Academy, the youth setup,became central.
Absolutely central. It became their main asset
really, both for getting resultson the pitch and, you know, for
financial stability down the line through player sales.
They couldn't buy stars, so theyhad to make them.
It sounds like that classic business principle.
Figure out what you can be the best at, especially when
(04:01):
resources are tight. What were the free things they
identified? That's the clever bit.
They really focused on maximizing what they called the
things which are free. Like what team spirit?
Exactly. Team spirit, building a strong
collective culture, obsessive dedication to preparation, game
readiness. These are things that don't cost
millions in transfer fees, right?
(04:22):
They require intellectual capital, focus, commitment, not
just cash. And this local connection seems
vital to you mentioned the staff.
Oh, it's amazing. The commitment is deep because
the roots are deep. The head coach?
He's also a school principal. No way.
Yeah, they're Chief Scout. He's the local postman.
You're kidding. Seriously.
And most of the squad are eitherfrom the village or the
(04:43):
surrounding area that creates this.
Incredible social glue. You just can't buy that kind of
shared investment in success. It makes sense.
It means people are there for more than just the paycheck.
It probably helps keep costs down too and builds resilience
when things inevitably. Get tough.
Precisely. It stabilizes the whole
operation. They weren't just trying to
survive year to year. They were building something
(05:05):
sustainable, something efficient, designed to compete
smartly, not just expensively. OK.
So that robust locally grounded structure was the foundation and
that foundation then allowed them to bring in the really high
level academic brainpower. Exactly.
The organization was ready, the culture was right, but the real
X Factor, the scientific accelerant, arrived with
(05:26):
assistant coach Karl Marius Axum.
This is where we go from smart business to like PhD level
football science. Axum's background is
fascinating. It's not your typical coaching
CV, is it? Lay it out for us.
No, it's really quite unique, especially for a club like
Amyelby. He holds a PhD in visual
perception in elite football. Visual Perception.
Yeah, from the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences.
(05:48):
And on top of the PhD, he also has a master's in coaching and
sport psychology. So we're talking deep scientific
understanding of how players seethe game, how they process
information under pressure, how they learn.
Wow, OK, I'm just picturing him walking into that clubhouse in
Hellavic, fresh out of academia,talking about visual saccades
and cognitive load. The guys who've been playing
(06:09):
professionally for 15 years. Was there pushback?
Skepticism. Oh, for sure.
He's apparently quite open aboutthat.
He knew his ideas were mostly, you know, in his head and on
paper at that point, not really battle tested in the day-to-day
of elite coaching. Right theory versus practice.
But the Melby leadership, building on that smart
foundation we talked about, theysaw something different.
(06:30):
They weren't just hiring anothercoach to run drills.
They were hiring someone to fundamentally change how their
players learn and understand thegame.
They wanted that deep scientificinsight.
So how does a PhD in visual perception actually translate to
the training pitch? What does that look like in a
drill? It sounds very abstract.
(06:50):
It starts with this core principle.
Everything, absolutely everything, has to be game
specific. No more isolated drills like
just dribbling around cones for hours.
So context matters. Hugely.
Every single training session starts with a clear tactical
intention, a specific game problem they're trying to solve.
Axiom focuses relentlessly on that cycle players constantly go
(07:13):
through in a match. You have to perceive what's
happening, the ball, teammates, opponents, space.
Then you have to decide what to do fast, and finally you have to
execute the skill. His training is all about
sharpening and speeding up that perception decision loop.
So it's mental training integrated directly into
physical training, Yeah. How do you replicate the chaos
(07:33):
and the pressure of a real matchconsistently in training?
You can't just play 11 V 11 all day.
Right. And this is where his key
concept comes in. Repetition without repetition.
OK, unpack. That sounds like a
contradiction. It does, but it's brilliant.
Aksum argues that traditional drills where you repeat the
exact same movement or pass hundreds of times builds muscle
memory. Sure, but football is way too
(07:54):
chaotic and unpredictable for that to be the main way players
learn. You never face the exact same
situation twice. So repeating the same thing
actually makes you less adaptable.
In a way yes, it can stifle the decision making part of the
brain. So repetition without repetition
means creating game like scenarios where players are
(08:15):
never told exactly exactly what to do.
Give us an example how would that work?
OK, let's say they're working onplaying out from the back
against a high press. They might set up a situation,
maybe establish 1 core principlethey want to see.
Like we need to try and find a diagonal pass forward through
midfield, not just sideways, right?
They'll run that basic scenario,say 15 or 20 times in a row.
(08:37):
But here's the key. Each time the starting position
of the defenders might shift slightly, the pressure might
come from a different angle. The past before it might be
weighted differently. I see.
So the core task find the diagonal past stays the same,
but the specific context changesevery single time.
Exactly. The players have to constantly
(08:58):
reevaluate, re perceive and makea fresh decision based on the
subtle changes. They're repeating the problem
solving process, not the exact physical movement.
That forces them to stay mentally switched on.
Completely. It maximizes what axiom calls
cognitive intensity. If you're just following
instructions, your brain can kind of go on autopilot, but if
you're constantly forced to analyze, decide, and execute
(09:20):
under pressure, your brain is working at game speed.
In a game like way, you're teaching players to find
solutions, not just obey orders.And that must fundamentally
change the way coaches interact with players, especially the
experienced ones. Oh absolutely.
It shifts it from a top down command style to something much
more collaborative. Axiom shared this great story
(09:40):
about coaching their 34 year oldcenter back, a guy with like 15
years playing across Europe. Yeah, he probably knows a thing
or two about defending. Right.
Oxen basically said it would be stupid for him, the coach, to
stand there yelling instructionsabout every single movement to a
player with that much experience.
So how do you coach him then if you're not telling him what to
do? You guide, you prompt, you offer
(10:02):
alternatives. Instead of shouting, play the
diagonal pass. Now it becomes more like, OK,
what if you held your position for just one more second there,
let the attacker commit, then make the pass.
How might that change things? So you're engaging their
experience, asking them to thinkthrough the options.
Exactly. You're inviting their input
(10:22):
trying to merge the coach's theoretical understanding with
the players practical on field wisdom.
And crucially, Exum acknowledgesreality.
If a player maybe isn't quick enough to make that super
aggressive interception the coach ideally wants, they work
together to find a slightly different, maybe safer solution
that fits that player's actual abilities.
(10:43):
It's theory tailored to the individual.
That kind of respect must build huge trust, which you absolutely
need if you're asking players tobuy into a system that involves
risk like they're high pressed will get into.
Totally. And this collaborative approach
links to another tool they use quite cleverly, video analysis,
but maybe not in the way most teams use it.
Aksum kind of jokingly calls it manipulative video use.
(11:06):
Often video sessions focus heavily on mistakes, right?
Showing players what they did wrong, Yeah.
The dreaded correction session. M Shelby flips that.
They apparently spend way more time showing clips of the things
they want to see more of, successful examples of their
high press working or playing out effectively under pressure.
They specifically highlight the positive outcome.
(11:26):
See, we did this. Won the ball back high, created
a chance. So using video as positive
reinforcement to build belief inthe system.
Precisely. They're effectively selling the
players on the idea that the system, even the risky parts,
works. It reinforces the cognitive
patterns they're building in training and builds that
collective confidence they need to take on the bigger clubs.
(11:47):
It's psychology in action. OK, so we've got the solid
organization, the local roots, and this fascinating academic
psychological approach to training.
Now let's get into the nuts and bolts.
How does this translate onto thepitch?
What system are they actually playing?
The foundation for everything isA343 formation.
Right. Three center backs, 4
midfielders, 3 forwards. Why that structure?
(12:10):
It's a really interesting choicefor them.
It gives you that inherent defensive stability with the
three central defenders, which is always helpful when you maybe
don't have individually dominantplayers across the back.
But crucially, it offers huge flexibility going forward.
Those wing backs and the four have license to really bomb on.
And this system marks a real change from Jelby, doesn't it?
(12:30):
They weren't always known for being expansive.
No, Historically there were muchmore pragmatic, defensive sit,
deep, hope for a chance on the break.
Survival football, really. But not anymore.
Definitely not under the currentcoaching staff.
They've embraced a much more proactive possession based
style. Their average possession stats
are apparently the highest in the club's history, around 51%,
(12:54):
which might not sound dominant compared to say, Man City, but
for Mel B that's a huge shift. Their whole attacking identity
now revolves around being compact, lots of rotation and
clever movement off the ball. OK, let's trace the ball's
journey. How do they start things off in
the low build up phase, especially if the opponent
presses them high? This is where their fluidity
(13:14):
really shows that base 343 oftenmorphs into something more like
a 4223 shape right at the start.How does that happen?
Where does the 4th defender comefrom?
The goalkeeper, he steps up often way outside his penalty
area, acting like an extra outfield player.
The sweeper keeper role. Exactly, but really actively
involved in the build up. This creates this diamond or box
(13:37):
shape deep in their own half, often giving them A4V2 or 4V3
advantage against the opponent'sfirst wave of pressure.
That extra man must make it really hard for the opponent to
press effectively. Yeah, what's the goal with this
deep structure? Primarily it's about security
and finding ways to progress theball cleanly.
They look for short, sharp passes.
They use a lot of third man combinations.
(13:58):
Explain that term third man combinations.
OK, so instead of just passing player A to player B, and then B
may B passes back to A or tries to turn, they look for player C.
So A passes to B, who lays it off first time to see who's
often facing forward and has bypassed the initial pressure.
It's about using that third player as a quick, unexpected
(14:19):
outlet to break the press. Lots of movement, lots of
rotation is key to opening thosepassing lanes.
But what if a team goes super aggressive, tries to cut off all
those short options centrally? Does the system breakdown then?
Are they dogmatic about playing short?
No, and that's a sign of smart coaching, not rigidity.
If they get really pressed hard and the short passes aren't on,
(14:40):
they have a Plan B. They're not afraid to go direct.
They'll target their main striker, Jacob Bergstrom.
He's a big physical presence, really good in the air and
holding the ball up. So if the short game is blocked,
bang, direct ball to Bergstrom. He fights for it, holds it,
brings teammates into play higher up the pitch.
It means opponents can't just gamble everything on stopping
the short buildup. Gelby keeps them honest.
(15:01):
Smart. OK, so they bypassed that
initial press, maybe using shortpasses or the long option.
Now they're moving higher up thepitch, the high buildup phase.
How does the shape change then? It becomes even more attacking.
They typically transition into adistinct 3 to 5 shape.
Three defenders, 2 deep midfielders and five players
pushed right up. Exactly.
(15:22):
Those two deeper midfielders, the 2 foot provide cover in
front of the back three, and thefive foot consists of the three
forwards staying relatively central.
And crucially, those two wing backs pushing extremely high and
wide. Like really aggressive
positioning. And you mentioned compactness
earlier. How does that fit in here when
they have five players so far forward?
(15:43):
That's the critical part. Even with five players high, the
distances between all the players, defense, midfield,
attack are kept deliberately short.
They aim for extreme compactness.
Why is that so important in attack?
It seems counterintuitive. Don't want to stretch the field?
You stretch it with the wingbacks positioning, but the
short distances between players offer two massive advantages.
(16:05):
First, speed of play. Shorter passes travel quicker,
right? So they can circulate the ball
much faster, making it incredibly hard for the defense
to shift and adjust in time. OK, faster ball movement.
What's the second advantage? Security.
This links back to them being, you know, not the richest club.
That compactness provides fantastic rest, defense,
(16:26):
stability. If they do lose a ball high up
the pitch, they're already closetogether.
They can immediately swarm the ball, counter press, and often
win it back before the opponent can even think about launching a
counter attack. Their attacking shape is also
their first line of defense. Clever.
So when they're trying to actually break down the
opponent's defense in this 325, where do they focus their
(16:47):
efforts? Through the middle.
Out wide, the main priority is definitely progressing through
the center. They want to play sharp,
vertical passes that break the opponent's midfield line.
How do they create the space forthose central passes?
This is where the midfielders intelligence really shines.
Those 4 central players, the 2 deep ones and the two more
advanced midfielders playing just behind the striker.
(17:10):
They show incredible positional fluidity.
They don't just stick to fixed spots, they're constantly
rotating, swapping positions, forming little diamonds, then
maybe a box shape, then maybe staggering themselves.
All designed to confuse the markers.
Exactly. That constant movement aims to
drag defenders out of position, create confusion and, crucially,
(17:30):
open up those vertical passing lanes into dangerous areas.
And you mentioned diagonal passes earlier in the context of
visual perception. Yeah, it's that key here too.
Hugely important. The diagonal pass is one of
their core principles for unlocking a defense.
Playing diagonally rather than just straight vertical or
horizontal forces the entire defensive block to shift and
(17:52):
adjust in a more complex way. It disrupts their structure.
And where are they trying to play these diagonal passes to?
They're aiming for players receiving the ball in what
coaches often called the pockets.
To find the pocket for us, What space is that?
The pocket is that valuable bit of space that opens up between
the opponent's defensive line and their midfield line.
Often it's just in front of the center backs or just behind the
(18:15):
opposition midfielders. Why is receiving the ball there
so dangerous? Because if you get a player
facing forward in that pocket, they've essentially bypassed 2
lines of the opposition defense.The defense is now immediately
threatened and has to react. Does a center back step out to
engage, leaving space behind? Does a midfielder track back?
It forces difficult split seconddecisions, creates uncertainty
(18:38):
and that's when attacking opportunities really open up.
OK, so they've used their fluid movement in diagonal passes to
find a player in the pocket, right?
What happens next? Does the pace change?
Instantly, the moment they access that pocket, the
controlled buildup switches gears.
It becomes about immediate vertical penetration attack mode
engage. How do they generate that
penetration? Bergstrom, the striker, plays a
(19:00):
key role by pinning the opposition center backs,
occupying them, stopping them from stepping out easily.
Then you get these aggressive driving runs from others.
Who makes the runs? The wing backs, we have to talk
about Stroud and especially Herman Johansson.
They make darting runs from widepositions, often aiming towards
the box, and the midfielders whodidn't receive the ball in the
(19:21):
pocket will also make forward runs looking to flood the
penalty area and attack space behind the defense.
You keep mentioning the wing backs being crucial offensively.
Johansson's stats are apparentlyoff the charts for a wing back.
They really are. He and Stroud are expected to
cover the entire length of the pitch.
They provide the width in the 325 shape, yes, but their most
(19:43):
dangerous moments often come when they make runs inside
towards the penalty spot or verycommonly towards the back post.
Why the back post specifically? It's a deliberate tactic.
If Emilby draws the opposition defense towards the ball on one
side of the pitch, the opponent's fullback on the far
side often gets sucked in field.Maybe tracking a midfielders
run? That leaves a huge amount of
(20:04):
space at the back post and that's where the men you'll be.
Wingback arrives often unmarked to finish the move or knock it
back across goal. Johansson's goal and assist
numbers are proof that this system is perfectly designed to
get the wing backs into scoring positions.
He's like a hybrid winger, full back forward.
Right, The attacking plan is intricate, fluid and clearly
(20:25):
effective. But you could argue their
defensive record is even more impressive.
Only 17 goals conceded in 26 games?
That's insane. How do they defend?
Is it just parking the bus? Absolutely not.
Their defense is just as proactive, just as intense as
their attack, maybe even more so.
Proactive defense. What does that mean in practice?
It means they don't just sit back and wait to react to what
(20:46):
the opponent does, they activelytry to dictate the play without
the ball. Their primary aim when defending
isn't just to stop the opponent scoring, it's to win the ball
back as quickly and as high up the pitch as possible so they
can immediately transition back into attack themselves.
It's relentless aggression. And that aggression starts right
at the front with the high press.
(21:07):
Yep, it's fun of at least their style.
They press intensely and it's often very man to man oriented
across the pitch. So players are responsible for
marking a specific opponent tightly.
Generally, yes. In the high press phase, the
goal is to certificate the opponent, deny them any easy
passing options out from the back, force them into rush
decisions, long hopeful balls ortechnical errors under pressure.
(21:30):
The objective isn't just to stopthem, but to profit from it.
Exactly. The tactical payoff is huge if
you win the ball back deep in the opponent's half.
They're usually structurally disorganized, unbalanced.
Nelly looks to exploit that instantly.
Maybe a quick switch of play to the far side where there's
space, or a direct Hass into theforwards.
It's high risk, definitely, but it's a calculated risk based on
(21:53):
their system. OK.
High risk, high reward. But what happens when that high
press inevitably gets broken? You know the opponent has
quality players, they play through it.
Are they suddenly wide open? That's the key challenge, isn't
it? And this is where that intense
training the cognitive intensityaxiom talks about really pays
off. Their reaction has to be
immediate and collective. If the first line of press is
(22:14):
bypassed, they don't panic. They execute a rapid, unified
retreat into a much more compactdefensive shape.
What shape is that? They typically drop into a very
solid 523 mid block or low press, so the wing backs drop
back alongside the three center backs to form a line of five.
The 2 central midfielders screenin front and the three forwards
stay connected but slightly higher.
(22:35):
Five at the back, so the priority shifts immediately to
defensive solidity. Yes, and specifically denying
central penetration. That 523 block is designed to
make it incredibly difficult to play through the middle.
The back 5 covers the width, thetwo midfielders clog the central
passing lanes, and even the front 3 will often stay quite
(22:56):
narrow to block passes into the opponent's midfielders.
They essentially funnel the opposition's attack towards the
wider areas. Where it's presumably less
dangerous. Generally, yes, an attack coming
from wide gives the defense moretime to shift across, and
crosses can be dealt with by thethree center backs.
But they don't just passively wait out wide either.
Even in this deeper block, they're looking for triggers to
(23:18):
press. What kind of triggers?
They practice this concept of squeezing the pitch.
It requires incredible coordination if the opponent
plays a slow pass sideways across their back line, or maybe
a negative pass backwards. Signals that the attack has
stalled. Exactly.
Those are triggers. The entire and Jolby team, all
10 outfield players will take a synchronized step up the pitch.
(23:41):
Maybe 5 yards, maybe 10. They maintain their compact
shape, but they collectively push the opponent further away
from their goal. So they're using the opponent's
lack of progress to actively regain territory.
Precisely, they do it step by step.
Slow sideways, pass, step up, backwards, pass, step up again.
It gradually forces the opposition further and further
(24:03):
back, increases the pressure, makes the pitch feel smaller for
them, and eventually leads to mistakes or hopeful long balls
that Mjolby can easily win back.It's suffocating pressure even
when they're technically in a deeper block.
That requires phenomenal communication and understanding
between the players. It really does.
And that brings us to probably the most distinctive, most
aggressive feature of their defense, the way they're wide
(24:25):
center backs play. OK, tell us about that.
That sounds unusual. It's quite advanced and very
brave. In many systems, center backs,
especially the wide ones in a back three, might hold their
position unless absolutely necessary.
Mcgelpie's wide center backs arecoached to be incredibly
aggressive in stepping out of the defensive line.
Stepping out Where to confront awinger?
(24:46):
Sometimes, but more significantly, they step out to
aggressively close down opposition midfielders who are
receiving the ball in that dangerous space between the
Elby's midfield and defensive lines.
Remember those pockets we talkedabout in attack?
They're just as dangerous defensively if the opponent
finds them. So the wide center back jumps
out to stop the opponent receiving facing forward in that
(25:08):
key area. Exactly, it's a proactive move
to kill the attack before it canreally threaten the back line
directly. But it leaves a massive hole
where the center back just was, right?
That sounds incredibly risky. It is incredibly risky and
that's why it only works with absolute drilled in collective
discipline. The risk they take is leaving
that space. The risk they mitigate is
(25:28):
allowing a dangerous player to turn in the pocket, so the
coordination has to be instant, almost automatic.
How do they cover that space? The moment that wide center back
commits and steps out, the othertwo center backs and the nearest
wing back have to immediately slide across.
They basically form a temporary back 4 for a split second,
shuffling over to cover the space that was just vacated.
(25:49):
Wow, so it's a dynamic defensiverotation happening in real time
based on the center back's aggressive move?
Yes, it's a momentary sacrifice of their base shape to achieve
immediate pressure on the ball in a critical zone.
It relies on every single playerknowing their role and reacting
instantly. It's probably the clearest
example of how their success isn't just about individual
(26:10):
talent. It's about a deeply understood,
highly coordinated, an incredibly disciplined
collective system. That's how they achieve such
defensive solidity despite playing so aggressively.
OK, we've gone deep on the organization, the psychology,
the tactics, both an attack and defense.
It all sounds impressive, coherent, but does it actually
work? Let's look at the cold, hard
(26:31):
numbers. Where do they stand?
Well, the numbers absolutely scream success.
As we mentioned, they're currently top of the Alzvanskin
table, first out of 16 teams. And the record?
Across the 26 matches played at the point this analysis was
done, their record was phenomenal. 19 wins, 6 draws and
just one single loss. One loss in 26 games.
Incredible consistency that translates to winning 73% of
(26:54):
their matches, and they're averaging a massive 2.42 points
per game. And put that 2.42 points per
game in context again. It's right up there with the
best seasons in the league's history.
It puts them firmly on track to potentially break Malmo's all
time points record of 67. It's elite territory.
What about goals? The balance between attack and
defense. The goal difference tells a
(27:16):
great story. Plus 30.
They've scored 47 goals and conceded only 17.
Break that down the defense 1st 17 conceded in 26 games.
That gives them the best defensive record in the entire
league. They're conceding, on average
just .65 goals per match, which is frankly staggering for any
team, let alone one playing withtheir level of proactive
(27:36):
pressing and, you know, aggressive center back play.
It just validates the discipline, the compactness, the
system. And the attack, 47 goals scored,
is that efficient or they just creating loads of chances?
This is where it gets really interesting and it ties back to
exums methods. I think the raw goal scoring
rate is strong. 1.81 goals scored per match, but when you
compare that to their underlyingnumbers, specifically expected
(27:59):
goals or XG. Right, the quality of chances
they create. Exactly, their XG for the number
of goals they should be scoring based on the chances is around
1.55 per match. But they're actually scoring
1.81. Correct.
They are consistently over performing their expected goals
by a significant margin, about 17%.
What does that gap tell you? Why are they scoring more than
(28:22):
the chances suggest they should?It suggests a couple of things,
likely working together. Either their players are just
incredibly clinical finishers when they get a site of goal or,
and this is where the psychologycomes in, their training that
focus on perception, decision, execution under pressure is
allowing them to make better choices, find better finishes,
execute more cleanly in those crucial moments then statistical
(28:45):
models would predict. So the cognitive training might
actually be leading to quantifiable over performance in
front of goal. It certainly points that way.
It suggests the efficiency isn'tjust luck, it's a result of
sharpening those decision makingprocesses in the final third.
They're making the absolute mostof the chances their system
creates for them. Let's talk about timing, too.
(29:06):
Is there a pattern to when they score or concede?
You mentioned they're strong finishers.
Yeah, there's a clear trend towards them being a second-half
team, meaning they score more goals on average after halftime.
Their average goals scored in the second-half is 1.000 per
game, compared to .81 in the first half.
What does that usually indicate?Better fitness, stronger
(29:28):
mentality. Often a combination of both.
It suggests superior physical conditioning.
They maintain their intensity while opponents might start to
tire. And it points to strong
psychological resilience, the ability to stick to the plan,
maybe make adjustments at halftime and keep pushing right
to the end. Again, you could potentially
link that back to the demanding nature of axioms training,
(29:49):
building that capacity for high cognitive and physical output
late in games. But there's a slight chink in
the armor. Statistically speaking, late
games. Yes, there is one area of
vulnerability that shows up in the data.
Despite their overall defensive strength, they do tend to
concede more goals late on. About 35% of the goals against
(30:10):
them come in the final 15 minutes from the 76 minute
onwards. Why might that be just fatigue
from the high intensity style that?
Would be the most likely explanation.
Maintaining that level of synchronized pressing, the
aggressive positioning, the constant concentration for a
full 90 minutes is incredibly demanding physically and
mentally. It seems that's the period where
(30:32):
cumulative fatigue might just slightly lower their resistance.
It's the biggest challenge of playing their way.
And finally, statistically, we have to circle back to the
player who seems to embody the system, Herman Johansen.
Absolutely. His numbers are the perfect
microcosm of their tactical success.
Remember, he plays primarily as a wing back, yet he leads the
team in both goals scored with 7and assists with eight.
(30:54):
A wing back leading in goals andassists.
It's exceptional, and it demonstrates perfectly how the
343 system is designed to get those wing backs into dangerous
attacking positions. His stats are concrete proof
that the tactical plan, the highpositioning, the runs to the
back post, the hybrid role is working exactly as intended.
(31:15):
He's the statistical exclamationpoint on their strategy.
Hashtag tag outro. So when you wrap it all up with
this incredible and Jelaby storyreally shows, I think for you
listening is that yeah, money matters in football.
Course it does. Financial power is huge, but
it's not the only thing, right? It's not insurmountable.
Not if you can counter it with other things like genuine
tactical innovation, like extreme levels of collective
(31:37):
effort and discipline, and maybemost importantly here, like the
courage to actually integrate deep, specialized academic
knowledge into your daily work. They brought in a PhD in visual
perception. That's thinking outside the box.
It really is. They use brainpower,
essentially, to compensate for buying power.
And it feels like this story transcends football, doesn't it?
It's a lesson about applying intelligence, about challenging
(31:59):
norms. Completely Nilby proves that
sometimes the most potent game changing ideas might be found in
places you wouldn't normally look in academic journals and
scientific theory in stuff that might seem purely head
knowledge. They dared to translate that
theory into practice. Yeah, they took the abstract and
made it concrete, made it win football matches.
(32:20):
Exactly. And that leaves us with a final
thought. Maybe a challenge for you.
We've seen how highly specialized academic insight,
cognitive science, learning theory, visual perception helped
transform this tiny village football club into a potential
record breaker. So the question is what
traditional industry, maybe the one you work in, is kind of
(32:40):
stuck in its ways? Where are things done just
because they've always been donethat way?
Right. What field is maybe overloaded
with information but struggling with effective practice?
Where could injecting some rigorous PhD level thinking,
some genuine cognitive science, maybe completely revolutionize
how things are done? Could the principles that lifted
Melby AIF also lift something else entirely?
(33:02):
The next MGLB miracle might not be in sport at all.
Something to definitely think about.
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