Bitcoin - What Is The Market Doing? with Dr Sandeep Sadana

Collect unlimited free verifiable CPD for UK Dentists here >>>  https://www.dentistswhoinvest.com/video/1

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What’s the smartest way to invest in Bitcoin without risking your financial and mental wellbeing? In this candid episode, Dr Sonny returns to share his rollercoaster journey through Bitcoin’s extreme highs and lows from the thrill of 900 percent gains to the stress of 85 percent drawdowns

Bitcoin recently surpassed its all time high, reaching approximately 73000 ahead of the expected halving event. This earlier than usual surge may point to increased institutional interest following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. But for dental professionals considering crypto exposure, the key is not timing but having a clear strategy

Drawing on personal experience and market data, Dr Sonny explains how volatility affected not just his portfolio but also his sleep, mental health, and focus at work. He shares practical lessons learned including three investment strategies, allocation tips, and data backed tools that help make sense of Bitcoin’s unpredictable price movements

You will hear how he uses a hot potato thirds exit approach to manage risk, why technical indicators can be powerful if used correctly, and how to approach crypto investing with a mindset that avoids both hype and fear

Whether you are just crypto curious or already holding Bitcoin, this episode offers practical insights to help you make more informed decisions and avoid common pitfalls. As Warren Buffett reminds us, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful a principle that remains especially relevant in the world of cryptocurrency.

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Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation or individual financial advice. For that, you should speak to a regulated, independent professional. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest. The views expressed on this channel may no longer be current. The information provided is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and all tax rules may change in the future. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, you should speak to a regulated, independent professional. Investment figures quoted refer to simulated past performance and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results/performance.

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Episode Transcript

Dr James (00:00):
Hey, what is up everyone?
Another episode of Dentists WhoInvest Podcast, where we're
here today to talk about Bitcoin, which is hot on everybody's
tongues at the minute, given itsrecent price action, which went
and broken its all time high,which the crypto aficionados in
the audience will know generallyhappens every four years or so.
Well, a little early, but nottoo far off when it was expected

(00:24):
.
Does that mean that we sell ourhouse and go all in on Bitcoin?
No, it absolutely doesn't.
We're here to talk about howone can sensibly and responsibly
gain some exposure to thecrypto market, should they so
wish, because, again, it's notfor everybody.
And here to help us on thatfront today is Dr Sunny.
How are you Of Dre compositedirect restorative excellence,

(00:46):
who and I know that you have, ofcourse, been on the podcast
before Dr Sunny?
Anyway, how are you today?

Dr Sandeep (00:52):
I'm good, James.
What's going on, man?
How are you?

Dr James (00:55):
Always good bro, always hustling, always thinking
about the next level, the nextstage.
What about you?
What's fresh?

Dr Sandeep (01:00):
Nothing man, I'm just a bit jealous looking at
your Dubai pictures.

Dr James (01:09):
Oh yeah, yeah, it was all right out there, it was all
right hello.

Dr Sandeep (01:11):
Having said, that you know instagram versus
reality.

Dr James (01:12):
Right, it actually rained one in three days.
Uh, it actually rained loads.
Man, I was like what the hell?
This is supposed to be thedesert?
Apparently it's some sort ofterraform, terraforming uh
initiative that they have outthere.
It's not quite performing.
I know that that's nottechnically what it is, but uh,
uh say, using that term somewhatironically but apparently the
cloud seed basically, and whatthey're trying to do is get a
little bit more rain when thegreen areas of dubai and they

(01:36):
overshot it a little bit.
And for anybody who's listeningto this podcast, we are, of
course, recording this on 18thof april 2024 and anybody's been
watching the news a few daysago will have seen that dubai
was absolutely rained out.
There was so many floods outthere that basically the whole
street there was cars that weresubmerged, etc.

(01:57):
In the middle of the city.
So I literally got out of dubaiand back to northern ireland
the day before that happened.

Dr Sandeep (02:03):
Nice.
So now you're back to sunnyEngland, yeah, or sunny Britain.

Dr James (02:08):
Sunny Northern Ireland , bro, sunny Northern Ireland,
which is again I'm saying thatironically, as I'm sure most
people have guessed Looking outthe window right now it's pretty
grey.
But anyway, enough about theweather in different parts of
the world.
We said we'd talk about Bitcoin, so we should probably do that
at some point, right, Sunny?

Dr Sandeep (02:24):
yeah, yeah, let's do that.
I'd like to just state wherewe're going to be.

Dr James (02:28):
So we're going to be looking at what's your take on
all the craziness that'shappening out there at the
minute?

Dr Sandeep (02:33):
what's my take?
Well, I mean, um, you want toshare?
Share some charts immediately.
Are we going to do that andtalk them through?
Because, uh, the chance don'tlie right we can.

Dr James (02:42):
You know what we can.
We can freestyle.
That's the fun part of thepodcast maybe, maybe just high
level.
What do you think about thecurrent market scenario in the
situation?
What are your thoughts?
Is it to be expected?
Given what you know aboutcrypto is a little surprise and
a little weird.
What light can you shed on it?

Dr Sandeep (03:01):
that's a great question, that's great.
That's a great way to start.
So.
So I'll probably say, I mean,for anybody who is following
Bitcoin, this thing over thelong term, so far it's just gone
up, right, it's gone up.
Yes, it has some really extremevolatility and pullbacks and
downside and you can really getcaught up into that.
As you know, I had a reallymixed experience, most of it bad

(03:21):
.
It's turning good now, but I'llsharing that, sharing that, and
hopefully some people can learnfrom the pain, right, they can
learn from the pain and not dothe same, right?
But, um, it's one of those, uh,it's one of those markets that
is super extreme.
It's 24 7.
You know it's super volatileand if you don't know what
you're doing and you watch price, it can really, you can really
spook the best of us.
So, but yeah, I mean, um, I wasjust to say that actually, what

(03:43):
we're seeing, you know, we'veseen an all time high break this
cycle before the Bitcoinhalving, and so if you're like a
seasonal type person ie looksat like price and charts and
trends and stuff then what we'reseeing, you know, is it's a
little bit early.
So, as you mentioned, it's alittle bit early.
Also, I think from the previousall time high till now, the
recovery has been super quick.

(04:04):
Also, I think from the previousall time high till now, the
recovery has been super quick.
So there are some changes, youknow, including the Bitcoin ETF
approval.
I think that's had some realimpact in that A lot of this
buying may be institutional.

Dr James (04:19):
And, as a result, that's you know, that's what's
accelerated Boom.
I love that, and certainlythat's the common thesis that,
now that we've seen the BitcoinETF, a lot of the money pouring
into bitcoin at the minute isfrom institutions and they're
front running the bull marketwhich usually happens around
about the halvening, which is aninteresting event in the lore
of bitcoin and maybe you couldshed light on that as well sandy

(04:42):
man, you know what I reallywanted to go and really stick to
the technical price perspective, because I'm sorry, I'm messing
up the whole entire script,sorry guys.

Dr Sandeep (04:51):
Yeah, yeah, just because if I start getting into
like the, the, the, you know.
Everyone's got theirmotivations as to why and I just
didn't as a whole.
We could just talk about thatfor a whole hour quite easily,
about what the halving is andthe rest of it, but most of that
stuff's really available on theinternet.
They could probably explain itfar better than I could, whereas
what I think I can help peopledo is really just look at bias
and really develop a strategyand just get like a kind of a

(05:14):
you know, live, live through myexperience, and then just make
it, make an informed decisionfor yourself.

Dr James (05:18):
So let's do that sounds fun all right, cool, cool
, cool.

Dr Sandeep (05:22):
Shall I?
Um, shall I show you, shall Igive you the recap of the roller
coaster and let everyone kindof experience how this market
moves and just give them a bitof a.
We can go back a few years andjust show them how it works sure
, absolutely so.

Dr James (05:33):
What sandeep is about to do just now is put a price
action chart on the screen.
I know that some people will bewatching this video and some
people will be enjoying it as anaudio experience by the podcast
.
So what we'll be very carefulto do my uh, all of us,
everybody involved in thepodcast here today is ensure
that we're super, super, superdescriptive of what we see.

(05:55):
Therefore, everybody who islistening well, they'll be able
to participate and understand aswell that's right, that's right
.

Dr Sandeep (06:05):
So tell me, James, can you uh, can you see that?
yeah, yeah cool, all right.
So what I want to start off?
I didn't want to go all the wayback to the beginning of
bitcoin history anyone could dothat but I just wanted to start
where, kind of near the timewhen I started to get involved,
right.
So this is um november 2015.
Right becomes like 2666, yeah,$266.
So what happened then?

(06:25):
Over the course of 550 days, itthen went up 359% right, so up
to 1,233 USD.
But what you can notice when youlook at this right, this is
each of these candles is a dayright, and so you can just see
how volatile this thing is.
That actually, holding it fromany anywhere in there, all the
way to the top, a lot of people,would you know, get sick at

(06:48):
looking at this, and you knowyou're.
It really does play with youremotions.
So it's quite easy to get whatthey call inverted commas shaken
out right where you just theprice action is crazy, the way
the price moves, it scares you,so you get out and then price
runs up, then you get back in,then it dumps, and so on and so
forth.
So quite a typical story for alot of people who get into the
market and, of course, at theend.
I certainly will give uh justsome lessons and some, you know

(07:11):
so, not financial advice, butjust like how I'd play it if, uh
, if I wasn't in now, and stufflike that.
But nonetheless, it took about550 days for bitcoin to make
this all-time high.
Right, and what I'd like topoint out as well is actually,
when it broke the all-time high,it then had this crazy whipsaw
action like it.
It sold off, it came back up,it sold off, it really sold off.
Then it went and went on tobreak the all-time high.

(07:31):
So we're seeing something verysimilar to that I'll get to that
uh later on where the priceaction is looking really quite
horrible around the uh, theall-time high.
So far, and I think you knowsomething similar to this can
happen.
I'll also tell you what, whatthe long-term thesis is, and
anyway, let's carry on.
So then it does break theall-time high, and now this is
uh, 2017, by this, you know, byum, by 2017, uh, the summer-ish

(07:55):
becomes around 1800 usd.
Now I've been watching it for awhole bunch of time but just,
you know, I was too scared, Ididn't really understand it,
didn't know what to do andactually, at this 1800 dollar
mark, I actually bought, my,actually bought in, and at the
time I was not a very happydentist and I really thought
that, um, crypto would be thissort of magical one, one shot
that I'd get out of dentistry.

Dr James (08:14):
Um it just everybody goes sorry to jump in.

Dr Sandeep (08:17):
Everybody does, me included as well yeah, yeah, it
just doesn't work like that,right, I think um anyone who?
expects, expects a windfall orfast money, is probably going to
be, you know, uh, sorelydisappointed.
Of course, there are luckypeople who it happens to, but
the graveyard is lit with thosewho tried and failed, right?
So, nonetheless, I get in atthis 1800 price handle.

(08:37):
This is mid 2017.
You know, I had moved out ofnhs dentistry, gone into fully
private and realised, actually,you know, the grass wasn't
greener and I actually wasn'tthat good enough to really
perform in our environment andno other stresses and all the
rest of it I just wasn't happy,just put it that way.
Nonetheless, this was kind ofwhat I thought my good idea
would be.
I'd become a trader notrealising that this market is

(09:00):
full of professionals, right,full of absolute sharks, who
will take your money readily if,if, you try and trade with them
.
So, anyway, from that point,bitcoin then ran up from the
previous all-time high to itsnext all-time high over the
course of 238 days, so, which isa 1500 percent gain, and topped
out just under around 20 000dollars.

(09:21):
Yeah, now where I had got in,that was a 916 ish percent gain,
right?
So crazy, you know.
So this investment I had madeat this time, you know,
unbeknown to me right.
I didn't really know what I wasdoing.
I just put this money in andthought I was a trader.
But actually the truth of thematter is, you know, the market
pays you to be long when itreally runs.
And if, as we're going to lookat bitcoin history the moment,

(09:41):
the majority of the time bitcoinruns up, you know, but when it
runs down it's painful, but mostof the time in its history it
runs up.
So, nonetheless, these are thekind of gains.
So at this point I, you know,made a.
I made, you know, quite asizable chunk of cash.
At this point, I was reallysort of ready.
I thought, yeah, I could dothis professionally.
I don't need to be a dentist.
This is, this is what I wasborn to do.
And, um, sadly for me, thatfollowing year, across 2018, the

(10:05):
market bled out 84%.
So, from the high to the low,minus 84%, right, and so, yeah,
that's quite painful and thattook around 364 days, right.
So, over the course of thisyear, and again, for anyone
who's looking at the chart, youknow, there are many times where
you'd be in this market and youthink, okay, it's going to be
all right, and then it doesn't,and then it looks okay again,
then it doesn't, and then whathappens?

(10:25):
That's how people get caughtoffside, right when you're
trying to exit a market likethis.
And again I'll talk aboutstrategies for exiting that I
employ now.
That has kind of served mequite well, um, so anyway, let's
, let's carry on from there.
So, as we look ahead now,because you've topped, it sort
of bottoms out.
So from 20 000 at the top itbottoms out at 3 000 pounds.
So anybody who bought that topand then it's down at you know 3

(10:47):
000, that's quite hard tostomach.
Most people won't be able tostomach that drawdown or even
want to buy it on the way downor anything else like that.
It's just quite a painful thingif you're new to this market.
And so that red arrow there,which is around the sort of
three and a half four thousanddollar mark I sold right because
I had enough positive thing waswhat this did do to me, this
experience.
It was a bit of a baptism offire.
You do really learn aboutyourself, um, you know you

(11:09):
really mature because you haveno choice.
But what that really did for me.
That year I really doubled downon dentistry, so I did so many
courses.
That year I just went coursemad, right, I was like someone
saved me and my dentistry reallyimproved, at least over that
year, and actually it's probablythe foundation to, uh, the
dentistry that I do today reallystarted in this, uh, in this
phase.
So from where?

(11:29):
Um, bitcoin bottom, then, right, that bottom, uh, it then ran
up another 337 percent right toreach about 14k.
Right now I had sold, remember.
So as I'm watching price run up, I'm like, oh, you know, at
least I'm not in it, you know,at least I'm not in trouble
anymore.
And then obviously then it getsto five thousand, six thousand,
seven thousand, and you getthat sneaking feeling damn, I'm

(11:50):
wrong, you know I'm wrong, Ineed to get back in.
And so this is just an exampleof how the market just whipsaws
people, right, and these arejust emotions at play, because
the time I sold and I'm going toshow you like a tool that you
can use at the end to reallyidentify when it's a good time
to buy, when it's a good time tosell but that tool would have
said to me it's a good time tobuy and not be a seller.
So who was buying from me?
Somebody, very smart, right,somebody knew this was

(12:11):
discounted in a good price.
So I get back in at aroundseven, eight thousand and then
bitcoin runs up 85 from there.
So not, not, not too bad.
And then, of course, it startsto sell off again.
So, from the high to the lowand the COVID low.
So when COVID happened, therewas a very sharp crash, shall we
say, and it went back to 3,500,something like that.
It spiked all the way downthere.
That meant that from the top,if people had bought in that

(12:34):
high thinking, okay, it's goingback up again.
And people often you knowpeople who are late to the
market they often buy at the topof the market, right, they
don't buy it when it's quiet,right, they don't buy it when
it's quiet, they buy it whenit's noisy.
They would be minus 70% down.
So, again, just reallydifficult for a lot of people to
stomach.
However, as mentioned, I'm doinga lot of teasers here, but I
really will just lay out thestrategy of how to not get
caught up in all of this.

(12:55):
Where my entry was, I was down47%.
So imagine if you'd put 10grand in, you'd be down 5k and
again, a lot of people wouldoften puke that and not decide
to buy more.
Then, as I didn't puke it atthat point and as it started to
creep up, I got out of breakeven.
Very, very common thing thatyou see from beginner investors
or traders or whatever, wherebyyou know they've got in a, let's
say, my entry, let's just say,for seven and a half k, and then

(13:18):
when it gets back up to likesix, seven and a half k, they
sell again because they justwant to relieve the pain, the
uncertainty of, uh, of theunknown.
What's going to happen next?
So, um, follow me, so far,James.

Dr James (13:30):
Yeah, I'm with you, bro.
I'm listening intently.

Dr Sandeep (13:32):
Cool man.
So then, from that point, right, bitcoin then goes from that
COVID low where everythingreally tanked quite hard, and I
know some very smart dentistswho actually got in, not the
crypto market, but got into thestock market during that that
dip and bought airlines and allkinds of stuff.
And these people obviously alittle bit seasoned, um, but
some of those did not touchcrypto or bitcoin in particular,
just because and smartly so Ithought they didn't really

(13:54):
understand that market.
They didn't know it, right, uh,it would.
It would have paid off inhindsight.
But hindsight is 2020 superclear in hindsight, looking back
at a chart.
But when it's happening, theycall it the right side of the
chart, right where you don'tknow.
It's blank, there's no candlesthere, yet there's no up or down
, so you don't know, it's veryunknown and that's where, that's
where traders live, right?
So, anyway, from that point,bitcoin then over the next 277

(14:15):
days, right goes and goes andmakes a new all-time high, so it
cracks the 20k handle.
Yeah, so around two these areapproximate figures.
You have 277 days.
It might be plus or minus fivedays and from where I sold, that
was something like I don't know159 gain and from the low, that
was already a 400 gain.
So just ridiculous movementsthis, uh, this instrument has,

(14:36):
and what happened thereafter wasthat the reason.
You know, I was just sittingout, you know, just watching
this price go up, just going up,when it got to that all-time
high.
I remember I used to follow thisanalyst online.
You know I'm not going to namehis name, but very respected guy
.
You know a very knowledgeableguy, mainly a crude oil trader,
and I saw his commentary and hissort of coverage on bitcoin at

(14:56):
the time and he was like, oh,this is a, this is uh, you know,
this is going to be a rejectionhere.
Bitcoin's over, overbought.
You know all of these technicalthings that meant bitcoin
shouldn't go past 20k and we'regoing to get a chance to buy
lower.
And, you know, fatal last wordsbecause I didn't get a chance
to buy lower.
Right, and listening to peopleon the internet probably isn't a
good idea.
Yeah, I mean, that applies tome as well.
Right, don't listen to me.
Definitely go do your research,but, like I said, I'll unpack

(15:19):
that now.
This is just a painful journeyso yeah, exactly, exactly d y o
r.
And so now, from the all-timehigh as price starts to uh,
break that 20k handle, as itstarts to creep back up again, I
get that feeling I'm wrong here, you know I'm wrong.
As it gets like 23, 24, 25, 26,27, 28, like that kind of level

(15:40):
I'm like at like the 28, 29k,I'm like man, I've got to get
back in, right.
So I did.
And you know, as soon as I gotin it, you know it pumped up a
good few days and then it soldoff back to my entry, pumped up
again, sold off, sold off belowmy entry.
I'm sweating again like what amI doing?
Am I just buying the top of themarket every time?
And then, luckily for me, itrecovered and then it started
moving up to its next all-timehigh.

(16:01):
So from its 20k all-time highbreak it then went to 64 000 ish
, 64, 65 000 ish in 120 days.
And so from the all-time highjust to illustrate this and I
have got stats to back back someof this stuff up and give
people some data but from thatall-time high break to the new
all-time high, that was a 230gain.
So even though you didn't buythe bottom but you bought when

(16:22):
it was actually clearly tradingbeyond the all-time high.
There's still some real upsidethere and for me that was 100
percent gain at that point.
But I think you're detecting ateam right, so detecting a theme
right.
There's going to be a bit of arug pull again for me.
And so after that, after thatall time high, it then crashes
again 55 percent.
So the market breaks down.
In hindsight, technically Iunderstand it.

(16:43):
Now I see why that was not agood place to still be long, but
I stayed long.
Now it goes all the way backdown to my injury again.
And then I'm watching thispainful sort of like sideways
movement.
So markets, they move up, theymove down or they move sideways,
and that sideways period, alsoknown as chop, is where a lot of
people really lose money,because it goes up, they buy, it
comes back down, they sell, itgoes back and it just goes in

(17:05):
this range up and down, confinedto this, you know, small
rectangle, so to speak.
Anyway, nonetheless, this timeI spot this real breakout.
I thought this looks real, so Iadded to the position and then
from there it ran up again andit broke the all-time high 140
days later.
So again.
Like you know, this time I'mlike, okay, cool, maybe I know
what I'm doing.
And then then it breaks theall-time high, sells off again,

(17:26):
tries to break it again, fails,tries to break it a third time,
fails and again, for me, thatwas my thesis.
I remember sitting in arestaurant with my very dear
friend, and it was just me andhim, you know, he was consoling
me during this very stressfulperiod and I said to him look,
man, this is my thesis really.
Uh, shouldn't really fail threetimes.
Right, it's very uncommon tosee like, uh, you know, it's
very uncommon for for breakoutsto fail on the third time in in

(17:47):
crypto markets.
And I had a whole thesis and Isaid this happens, I'll get out,
and I, you know, I was holdingmyself accountable to the plan
because I said it out loud tohim and if I didn't do it, he
certainly will ask me how's yourposition's doing?
And if I said to him I'm stillin it and I'm losing, he'd be
like but you told me your plan.
So you know, sometimes you'vegot to speak these things into
existence and keep yourselfaccountable by your, by your, by
your nearest and dearest.

(18:07):
So anyway, from that pointwhere I saw this sort of
behavior happening at the top.
It looked like a top and um.
I actually put this in one ofthe most recent posts in
dentistry invest group on mymost recent analysis.
As to why I reduced theposition size, it's because of
the same pattern that I saw here, and so when I saw it, I got
out here and so, from high tolow, bitcoin actually sold off
75 percent.

(18:28):
Uh, over 236 days and again alot of that time.
When that happens, the marketparticipants, me included think,
okay, cool, it's going tobounce here, and you don't get
the bounce.
And then it bounces some and youthink, okay, it'll bounce
higher, and then I'll get outand it just sells off.
And then it bounces a bit andyou're like, oh, it's gonna, and
it just keeps you teased likethat that it's gonna happen and
it just doesn't.
And then it's just brutalbecause it will sell off harder.

(18:48):
And now you're so far away fromyour entry.
If you bought 64 and now you'reat 30, you probably shouldn't
be selling because you're gonnacrystallize a 50 loss, right,
but you may have been right inthat regard, but we just can't
predict the future right.
Trading isn't about predictionsin, in my opinion or investing.
It's not about predictions.
It's about making money right,and so we'll talk about that too
.
The strategies behind it.

Dr James (19:08):
That is.
You know what?
That is a?
What's it called?
That is a quote right there.
Trading is not aboutpredictions, it's about making
money.
They're so down.

Dr Sandeep (19:19):
It's probabilities right Signed by signed by.

Dr James (19:21):
That's the term I'm using.

Dr Sandeep (19:25):
Yeah, right, maybe sign by, sign by, that's the
time.
Yeah, totally, totally so.
Then what happens is bitcoin,you know, sells off to a low of
like in the 16 000s, right, andthis is actually below his
previous all-time high.
Now I remember and see, there'sthis thing known as sentiment.
You know how people are feelingbecause I remember something
very stark, but actually at that64k, 65k time I was doing some,
uh, some dentistry a friend'spractice at the time and on the
way to his practice I waswalking and I just saw some guy

(19:46):
on the corner and he was on hisphone and he was on his head,
his headset, and he was talkingto his friend.
He's going oh man, there's somany cryptos to buy.
There's so many cryptos to buy.
You know, there's thissentiment indicator, of course,
you know, very subjective, butwhen everybody's talking about
it, like guys on the street andyour taxi driver, and when I'm
on the train on, I was on a tubeand there was this poster on
the tube and it was for afrocoin, and I was like all these

(20:06):
little meme coins, like not, youknow, not, not real things.
That's like a, like a topsignal, yeah that's a tough
signal.
So yeah, yeah I'm telling you,right, when everyone's talking
about it like that, thenactually like it's not good,
right, but when nobody's talkingabout it, is that these lows,
when it, when it's like 16k noneof my friends who are in the
market were talking to me aboutit because obviously a lot of
them were underwater andeverything else is painful.

(20:26):
You know, some people don'thave the funds to top up their
positions and so on and so forth.
So, nonetheless, this was likeyou know, I had a couple of like
.
You know, I kind of read thesituation correctly a couple of
times, right, so I was like youknow, I got in, I got caught out
, then I got back in when, whenI saw this breakout and then,
crucially, as I mentioned in theprevious post I put, is, if you
take care of the downside, youknow the upside will take care

(20:48):
of itself and we'll talk aboutstrategies for investors versus
traders.
Uh, in taking care of thedownside nonetheless, it goes
down to the 16k handle and thenit ranges.
Now it just moves sidewaysbetween 16 and 24k, you know,
for about 273 days now.
In that period, yeah, my, someof my smarter friends were like
sunny, I'm buying like crazy,and and and so was I right?
Because this time I've seen itbefore when everybody was

(21:10):
bearish and saying it's going tocrash, it's going to go to zero
.
It's a scam.
You know this thing, you know.
Whatever, that's probably atime to like.
If you're going to allocate,probably allocate there.
So that's what I did.
And then it um, from that pointit broke out from that 24k,
went all the way up to 30K, butdown to the 24K, which is very
common.
So when people buy somethingand then it pumps up and they're
happy, and then it comes backto the entry and they're sad,

(21:31):
it's like really normal pricemovement.
You know it's called a retest,it's like super normal.
In fact, you see it more oftenthan not.
Nonetheless, it went back up to31,000.
And you know it went all theway to the latest all-time high
of 73K and that happened over aspan of 478 days, right?
So if you was in the marketfrom I mean anywhere from like
last October, if you were infrom February, call.

(21:53):
But if you was in from lastOctober, you captured most of
the move.
So you know, sometimes peoplewant to time it, they want to
get the exact bottom, you wantto get the exact top.
It just doesn't work like that.
And so from those previous lows, the 16k lows, to where we are
now, the 73 or where we were atthe 73 000 price, that was a 370
gain.
So, like again, just insanemoves, insane moves, right, um.
So that's just like how, howI'm viewing stuff.

(22:14):
And now I've just got a pricechart up of, like, the current
price action and it does looktoppy to me and again, I gave my
analysis.
I won't exhaust that here.
And actually, if you're not inthe market and this thing goes
all the way down to like 52 or,you know, 45 or whatever you
know, for me, that's what I'mlooking to buy some more.
So not advice, just what I'mlooking to do, um and so,
because if you're not in itagain, if it runs up higher, the

(22:35):
only other option is to buy it,like above 70, you know, at the
next breakout.
Which um, which?
Um, yeah, which is possible.
Now I just wanted to to touch onthis part about what we were
talking about recently, James.
We were talking about cycles ofvolatility, right?
So in Bitcoin's history, someof the most sort of common price

(22:57):
movement that we see is likeduring the times where the price
is running upwards right, whenit's running upwards, that we
actually see, we see 20 to 40%pullbacks, even when Bitcoin is
going up.
It can pull back 20 to 40% andstill be.
Even when Bitcoin is going up,it can pull back 20 to 40% and
still be a healthy pullback.
But when it's a bear market andoften it's too late to know
that right it can draw down like85 to 90%.

(23:19):
So, again, just for people whoaren't in the market or who are
in the market, you just got tobe prepared that this is the
nature of the beast.
It's an immature market.
It's an immature market.
It's a young market.
This is just how wild theswings are and that will
obviously peter out as thismarket develops over the next 5,
10, 15, 20 years.
Obviously, if you're a believerand think it will still be here
, where some people are superbearish, just think it won't

(23:39):
even exist anymore it reallydepends on your position.
Then what we were saying as wellBitcoin usually makes all-time
highs after the halving and thistime it's a bit of an anomaly.
It's done it beforehand.
So for me, I mean I'm nottrying to read too much out of
that, but I mean that's, that'squite to me, that's quite
bullish.
That's quite a good thing.
Um, and then just something youknow, because people message me
a lot often and ask me aboutwhat about all coins?

(24:00):
Because everybody wants to findthe next bitcoin.
Yeah, they want to buy, likeyou know, shit coin number 101
and then it goes from like 1B tolike $10, right, and it can
happen and it will happen forthose.
I know many people who've donethat, but I also know a bunch of
people who just lost the entire, whatever they put into it.
But again, this comes back torisk and allocations, which
we'll come on to later.
I've got that planned here.

(24:20):
So that's just what I want totalk about.
But altcoins, just generally,as a rule of thumb, they
generally, generally the marketbroadly, as in all of them tend
to move together right.
This is where you can't get itwrong, right where the market
really pays you to be in.
It tends to really move broadly, like that after bitcoin has
topped its cycle.
So when bitcoin's gone from 3kto or let's say, you know where

(24:41):
I was 1800 to 20k after that 20kmove and it crashed to 11 on
that preceding rally up, that'swhen all coins did absolutely
insane things.
So just a rule of thumb I'veobserved over time is that all
coins typically do well broadly.
Where you're not trying to pickthe best one, you're just
trying to be in the market toget paid tends to happen once
bitcoin has topped.
So if you're really slick youknow people call them rotators

(25:03):
in crypto land where they'reable to actually move out.
You know they're, they're,they're layering out of bitcoin
as it does the insanity and I'llshow you a chart after which
can help us give us an ideawhere it could or could go and
then they'll rotate into altsthat they like on on the
pullback thereafter and actuallydo very well, and that, for
some people, has beenlife-changing money at that

(25:24):
point, like life changingopportunity, because it doesn't
happen all the time.
So that's something I'll befishing for.
I think that does make sense.
Then what I'd say?
Like just some lessons, yeah,just some big lessons for
everybody.
Like, if you're in crypto andyou're in bitcoin, I've got a
yearly chart on now.
So that's ever since bitcoinwas, uh, you know, since
inception of 2008, all the wayto 2024.
Now, each candle is a year andwhat we can see on the screen is

(25:46):
that this thing has just goneup.
Yeah, it's just gone up, it's astrong uptrend, and so if we
looked at bitcoin's negativeyears, there have never been two
negative bitcoin years in theworld, right?
So that's just the characterand the nature of the market.
So if that changed, right, ifthat changed, or we saw, you
know, the red candle, the darkcandle, the low of, you know,

(26:06):
the, not the low, but the um,the bearish year, the negative
year.
If price starts trading belowthat and stays and starts really
trading beyond that, then thecharacter of the market has
changed.
So this is what I'm talkingabout.
This is what I understand thetechnical price perspective, as
opposed to, like the widermacroeconomic you know not going
into like cpi prints andinflation or that, that's far
beyond my remit I'm just talkingabout becoming from a from a

(26:26):
price uh perspective thateveryone can see on a chart.
You know information isavailable freely so that that
chart, hopefully, if you are aninvestor, you're looking at an
instrument that is and has beenin for its whole history it's
been trending strongly upwards.
So even though there's seriousdrawdowns, it has it's just been
up typically.
So my lesson here is to zoomout.
So if you look at, like you'relooking at, price every day,

(26:48):
you'll get I've shown you thosecharts and show you the price
movements you will get just,your emotions will fly, you'll
be exuberant one day, you'll besad one day.
You know it's just not a way tolive, right.
And if you've got commitments,it certainly is just a big
distraction, right.
So not good for a practicingdentist, in my opinion.
So, zooming out, observing theyearly trend, that's super,
super helpful.
And then the big lesson to theformer me would be the younger

(27:09):
self if I didn't have to gothrough all that pain would be
just deploy the capital anddon't look back, you know, just
invest in it, right, and justdon't look at it day to day.
It just doesn't make sense,right?

Dr James (27:18):
so, um, yeah, you following that so far, James
yeah, man, no, I'm justlistening intently and you know
it's a lot of, a lot of theestablished, uh, crypto
doctrines that you're espousing.
So, no, I'm vibing.
I'm vibing over here, which Ireally like, and I guess you
know what it'd be interesting totalk about the bear market and

(27:44):
how that looks, becauseobviously that is the part where
everybody gets stung massivelyin crypto.
You know, everybody kind ofmakes, basically everybody makes
money in the bull market, youknow, providing you get out at
the right time or have the righttimeframe.
But what about the bear market,which is the part that seems to
catch everybody out?

Dr Sandeep (28:02):
Yeah, I mean, it's brutal for anyone who's lived
through it.
It is absolutely brutal, youknow.
But I think I just prefaced thewhole thing of investing in
anything right, you're going toinvest in it because you think
this thing has legs, you thinkit has long-term potential and
you think it's going to do wellover time.
Right, and again, I'll talkabout the exact ins and outs,
but actually I thought I'd diginto, like you know, try and be
super balanced as well.

(28:23):
Obviously I bullish bitcoin.
I think long term it makessuper sense, you know, until
until price tells me it doesn't,right, but right now it just
makes sense to to be a bull.
Does that mean you, you knowmarket, you know, just put loads
of money in right now, notunless you can stomach a
potential, you know x amount ofdrawdown.
We talk about strategies, abouthow you can get in, but I'd
also like to present, like thebearish case in general.

(28:43):
So what's the bearish case?
I like price going down.
Why is bitcoin rubbish?
Why is it a scam?
Why is it not going to work?
Why is?
Why?
Should you not allocateanything to it?
Right?
Not even a percent of yourportfolio, which, again we've
discussed, the one percentstrategy, which we'll come to as
well, right?
So people will say bitcoin isn'ttangible, it's not a real thing
.
You can pick up a, you know, acoin of gold.
You can, um, I don't know, Imean stocks aren't tangible as

(29:05):
well, I suppose.
Right, but I mean you can pickup these things.
Real Real estate is physical.
These things are physical.
The argument is that Bitcoin isnot, you know, it's not tangible
, right?
So I totally get that.
Some people even argue and say,ah, the multiples in Bitcoin
are over.
You know the days of making 20xand crazy numbers.

(29:27):
They're done.
The market's still here to sithere to here, to be here to be
enjoyed.
Um, people often say that itcan go to zero, and that is true
.
Like anything could go to zeroof this nature, right, it's new
technology, it's, you know?
Um, who knows man, nobody cantell you that bitcoin's here
forever or that is going to bethe next thing, or that it is
going to zero.
Nobody knows that until ithappens.
As a result, you know, this allcomes down to, like, your

(29:49):
sizing and your risk, right?
So if you allocate one percentof your portfolio and bitcoin
goes to zero, well, you've lostone percent, right?
But if you allocate 50 of yourportfolio to bitcoin and it goes
to zero, well, that's, that's a.
That's a bad day in the office,right?
So that's just my sort of takeand view on just how we size
that stuff up.
But nonetheless, other peoplewill say it has no inherent
value.
But for me, I mean, I get that.

(30:11):
But I think, like you know, thethe market agrees what the
value of something is.
Right, you know so.
If somebody comes to onesurgery and pays 100 pound for a
composite and goes to anothersurgery and pays a grand for a
composite, it's because of thevalue that the patient perceives
, even if the composite isidentical.
You know so.
Not that I think they would be,but you know just, uh, just the
.
The inherent value piece iswhat people pay for it to be

(30:32):
right.
So the market currently saysBitcoin is worth whatever it is
today 67K or whatever it is.
I told you I don't look at itevery day.
So then also, people say, oh,it costs electricity to produce.
But again, if that's like aneco perspective, I totally
respect it.
If you're like, yeah, I'm notgoing to do it because I think

(30:54):
spartan environment, I totallyget it.
But again, there are peoplethat have outlined the, the
thesis pro and against that,that argument um, ardently on
the internet, so worth having alook.
And then, of course, people sayit's risky.
But again, I've just sort ofexplained how I perceive risk.
But yeah, it is risky.
If volatility is, uh, what youequate to be risky, then yeah,
it's one of the most riskiestthings you could ever do.
Then I'll start on the ballcase.
Yeah, so like, why would you,why would you I and what are the

(31:14):
sort of pros?
And again, like I'm I'm atechnical price guy rather than
like a massive.
No, I'm not like some sort ofbitcoin expert, but I just say
that actually, what bitcoinreally represents now I think,
to many is like a like, likedigital gold.
You know it's a store of value.
So you know we're talking aboutinflation, eroding purchasing
power of our currencies andactually, you know I'm spoiling
this, I want to say this laterbut actually, on average,

(31:35):
bitcoin's gone up 50 everysingle year.
It's existed.
So you know, in fact, I had hadsome other charts as well, but
I didn't want to go too deepinto it.
But if you compared bitcoin'sperformance against the s&p or
against gold, or against nvidiaor against anything.
Pretty much the Bitcoin chartversus that, um, uh, bitcoin.
Bitcoin's doing well.
Basically, it's outperformedmany, many things over this past

(31:57):
period.
So, um, then I'd also say thatthere's a fixed supply.
So that's really quiteinteresting for you know,
especially if you view it as acommodity, if you think Bitcoin
is a commodity of sorts, there'sonly ever going to be 21
million, ever in existence.
So you know, if everybody inthe world wanted one, you
couldn't have it.
So there could be an existenceand a reality in the future
whereby the demand for it issuch that people yeah, as today,

(32:19):
people probably can't afford awhole bitcoin, just general
people.
But you can afford maybe like0.1 of one.
You know 0.1 of a bitcoin, butat some point, if you know trend
continues, even 0.1 of abitcoin may be out of many
people's reach.
So just the scarcity element, Ithink, gives it some value too.
Um, bitcoin's market cap is 1.3trillion, right roughly since

(32:39):
last week, whenever I checkedand that's still tiny compared
to, like, gold, which is 15.8trillion.
And again, if you compare themto loads of other things,
including individual stocks, itjust still is a really small
market.
Does that mean we're early?
I don't know.
As mentioned.
You know, price will.
Price will say right, it's forme it's a game of probabilities
and the etf approval.
So, you know, for traditionalmoney to be able to enter the

(33:00):
market and get exposure tobitcoin without owning bitcoin
because that was a barrier forentry from many, because to own
bitcoin you need to keep it in a, in a in a hardware wallet or
on a trusted exchange or someother third-party custody
service all these things thatyou'd have to understand, and if
you sent it to the wrongaddress it'll disappear, and so
on and so forth but actuallybeing able to get exposure

(33:20):
through through these bitcoinetfs, um which you know, one of
my friends was telling me that,um, the bitcoin etfs have been
the most successful launch ofany etf to date, uh, just in
terms of how much money isinflowed in the short period
that they've been live.
So, nonetheless, I just thinkthat actually you've got access
now for people who otherwisecouldn't access it.
So, yeah, broadly, I think thatjust makes a lot of sense.

(33:43):
And then, yeah, I want to sharethis chart, right?
So this is like if we're justgoing to dream a bit and just
say, ok, cool, what can we lookat?
What data can we look at tosuggest where it could go?
So sorry, I spoiled it.
This is something I want toshare.
Before that First point, thischart is basically just showing
Bitcoin after making a new high.

(34:08):
So, after cracking its high inthe cycle in 2012, after it
broke the all time high so evenif you didn't buy the bottom it
then made its next high of 315%.
And so then, after that high,when it cracked here in 2016,
that cycle I was talking about,it went up 100% from there after
the all-time high, and thenfrom 2020, it went up 129% after
the all-time high.
And so now, at this currentcycle, who knows, will it go

(34:29):
100%?
Will it go 50%?
Who knows, from this all-timehigh, will Bitcoin go from 70 to
140 or 100?
Who knows, but we'll see.
So there's just something to besaid about just the typical
trend that happens there.
Then, yeah, back to my dreamingpoint, right, dreaming about
what Bitcoin could do.
So there's this very famouschart in the, the sort of
bitcoin community, right?
So if anyone wants to checkthis out, it's on.
Look into bitcoin.
They're free tools.

(34:50):
Uh, really cool, reallyinteresting.
I'm going to share a bunch ofthem and just helps you make
better decisions.
So if you want to sell something, you can look at some of these
stuff, or if you want to buysomething, you can look at it
and just say, okay, cool, basedon these mathematical models,
where are we?
Are we closer to the top orcloser to the bottom?
So this one's called thebitcoin rainbow rainbow price
chart.
Right, and it obviously has thecolors of the rainbow, and blue
is cool, like it's goodbye, andand uh, red is when it's

(35:12):
overbought and like reallyprobably not goodbye, and this
model indicates.
I know it sounds outrageous, butthey reckon, you know, this
could go, you know, into likethe 300k thing in this cycle,
which is crazy to me.
I don't think so, but who knows, right, who knows?
Bitcoin surprised me before,you know, and there's another
adage in the in bitcoin trading,which is it will go lower than
you think and it will go higherthan you think.

(35:33):
So, no, just, whatever yourassumptions are, they're
probably wrong, because I've forme at least, that was certainly
the case every time I thoughtthis must be a top or this must
be a bottom, I was certainlywrong.
So, anyway, so the rainbowchart just has been you know,
there's some sort ofmathematical model underneath it
you can really look into ontheir website, but that's where
it predicts this thing couldactually top out, before coming
back to the blue and then goingback to the red over time.

(35:55):
The next one is called thebitcoin 200 week moving average
heat map, and so what it depictsis like the bitcoin price so
far, and then any place you seethe blue dots, right, they're
saying that's a good buy, andanytime you see the red stuff,
it's like really overheated andprobably not goodbye and
probably a time to sell, right.
So in the previous cycle cycletop, we only got to like an
orangey, yellowy type of thing,so wasn't the most, you know,

(36:18):
instructive in that, you know,if you didn't so at that point
which again, we'll talk aboutexit strategies at the end um,
then maybe you got caught offside if you're only using this
model, but this isn't mypreferred.
This is just one to illustrate,right, what, what, what is
possible, yeah, um, uh, oh, yeah.
And then I was going to talkabout this other thing as well
that actually there's otherpeople in the bitcoin community
that talk about believe this ornot the day that bitcoin is

(36:39):
worth one million dollars each,and so the subdivision of a
bitcoin is a satoshi, and sowhat the inference is is that
they'll divide bitcoin intosatoshis and each satoshi will
be a dollar.
So that's crazy, but this isjust, you know, looking into the
future, what people dream ofand what they think could maybe
just put that in context.

Dr James (36:55):
There's a hundred million satoshis in a bitcoin
right, if my math is correct nota hundred million.

Dr Sandeep (37:01):
I think it's a million.

Dr James (37:02):
I think it's a million okay, we're gonna have to look
this up.

Dr Sandeep (37:05):
I'm gonna yeah, we have to look it up, but
nonetheless that nonetheless,without getting too much into
the weeds, they're saying thatif it gets to like a million per
bitcoin, then they willsubdivide it into another unit
and each of those units would bea dollar and that's what the
tradable thing would become yeah, it's.

Dr James (37:20):
It's, uh, infinitely divisible.
So they can.
They can actually change it.
You know, a satoshi could bethe new denomination and there
can be.
They can create beneath thatsandy.
My bitcoin trivia was on point.
Today it's a hundred millionsatoshis in a bitcoin ah, there
you go, you're killer, killer,killer, killer.

Dr Sandeep (37:39):
Like I said, I'm just a chart monkey man.
Yeah, I just press red andgreen buttons for fun, so, um,
yeah, all right.
So now I'm going to get into,like some really sort of like,
um, some uh, practical,practical things, you know, to
help people now, right, so soyou may be curious, now you may
be in, or some.
My take is actually, when welook at and compare investing
versus trading, investing ispretty much you put the money in

(38:01):
and you don't need to manage it, pretty much right, and you let
the time pass, you let themarket do its thing, right.
And so, as from those previouscharts, you know, some of these
cycles are like 200 days, 100days, 300 days, you know for
like these.
So you just don't do anything,you just let it do its thing.
Um, trading, obviously is muchmore about trying to catch the
swings of the market.
So you know, as it comes down,you want to get in there, as it
comes back up, you want to letit off there, you want to get

(38:22):
out.
Um, that, that that's cool andyou're trying to.
Yeah, I'd say that's more on ashort to medium time frame,
whereas investing is like alonger time horizon and you're
ultimately trying to profit offof the volatility, yeah, and so
that's fine.
But for me I wouldn't recommendtrading for for professionals,
for dentists, who are very busy,you know we've got high demands
.
You know we've got a verydisciplined lifestyle where

(38:43):
you've got, you know you've gotperform every day, then being
distracted by your investment,you know, and again, that's
going to be determined by yoursize.
If it's a small amount, it'sprobably not going to bother you
, but if you're over leverage,it really does affect and
distract you from yourday-to-day.
So, been there, don't recommendit.
So I'd certainly recommend thatmost sense is just invest.
You know, again, not off.
My recommendation do yourresearch if it makes sense to

(39:03):
invest rather than try and trade.
So, and I'd also say, like youknow, just trading is a very
unique skillset.
You know it's made.
You know certain people arevery, very good at it.
They're just made for it.
You know they love seeing thecolors and the changing numbers
and all the rest of it, andthey're just made for it.
Right, like, I just don't thinkthe majority of us are, and
I've seen many people fail.
Then I'm going to just be superclear, because some people have

(39:24):
obviously seen, majority of whatI have is invested.
Yeah, it's an investment stack.
And then what I have is like,let's say, 10 or 20% whatever
you want to call it of thatstack which I'll trade with, and
what that does for mepersonally.

(39:45):
For me it's just good fun.
I just enjoy it.
I enjoy it and I'm not theworst at it so far in my latter
third of the Bitcoin career, butfor me it actually soothes an
itch.
So, um, for me it like actuallysoothes an itch.
So if I'm feeling, you know,and I really want to take action
, instead of me taking actionwith the whole investment
portfolio only to be wrong andruin it for yourself, I've got
this trading stack that allowsme to scratch that itch, so to

(40:07):
speak.
Yeah, and again, my timehorizon for trades.
I'm looking at the monthlycandle, weekly candle, lowest
daily candle.
I don't really go in thereanymore because I just don't
have time to do that um, and sothat's that's.
That's really, um, how I justframe that before I start
getting into um, you know, like,uh, some, some, some, some, uh,
some recommendations, but again, recommendations to my younger

(40:28):
self.
Let me just put that disclaimerright.
So again, first of all, how toinvest, I say you've got to do
your research, you've got toassess.
Do you think bitcoin has legs?
Do you believe in thetechnology and what it can
represent to society at large?
I really think that's animportant, important thing,
because when you have conviction, it's actually really quite
easy to hold for the ups anddowns.
In fact, I have a friend friendof a friend actually, let's say
and he's been in the marketsince I don't know 2017, 18,

(40:51):
something like that, and he'snever sold anything.
So he's just riding the, youknow, the 300 pump, and then the
85 down, and the, the 700 pumpand the 85 down, and he's just
been riding it.
But he's got conviction becausehe thinks this is going to be
technology that our children aregoing to be using.
So that's that Anyway.
So that does game us.
So then, what are thestrategies to invest?
So our good friend TonyKilcoyne in the Dentistry Invest

(41:14):
group Shout out to TonyKilcoyne let's go.

Dr James (41:20):
Who to invest group?
Shout out, let's go.
Who knows if tony's a fan ofthe podcast?

Dr Sandeep (41:22):
let's leave this in here and not tell him and see if
he contacts us?
Yeah, then we'll know if he's afan or not, right?
So, uh, tony recommends dollarcost averaging, right, and so,
for those who don't know, itjust means you set up a direct
debit, every month, you allocatea certain amount, let's say 100
pounds, and every month, yourdirect debit just buys 100 pound
of bitcoin every month.
And so what that does?
It just means, no matter whatthe price, you're always buying
into the market and actually,over time, if we look back at

(41:43):
that yearly chart, right, ifyou've done that, yeah, anywhere
in this chart, let's just say,here, you would buy, here, buy
here, buy, you can see my cursor, right, yep, you can.
Yeah, so I'm just saying, ifyou was buying all the way up,
you're still quids in.
Like, dollar cost averagingcertainly works, right.
So, uh, there's, there's,there's, there's nothing wrong
with uh, there's nothing wrongwith dollar cost averaging.

(42:05):
Certainly a great strategy, infact, one I employ.
So if you've got like abusiness and you want your
business to procure bitcoin aswell because of you know, you
want to get into nitty-gritty ofcapital gains tax allowance for
a personal versus how it wouldbe treated as an investment
through the company.
You know, speak to a financialadvisor about that kind of stuff
.
But it may work out better foryou to do it that way.
So then you could just automateit.
So that's kind of what I havegoing on.

(42:25):
Uh, through the company justmakes sense to just dollar cost
average.
For me, the other alternative toa strategy is actually again
looking back at that yearlychart.
It's just I know this soundsoutrageous, but you just
whatever you want to investlet's say you want to invest 10
grand you just put it in, neverlook again until you know, until
it hits your target number orwhatever.
So if we look at this priceagain, I'm only going to do from
you know this upper half of thechart because we can't go back

(42:47):
there.
But if you just put it all inhere, you would have been in.
Let's say, you put it all inhere at this make sense and the
same on the next down year.
So for all of those down years,even if you bought the top of
that market so far, you wouldhave been all right.
So there is in fact some wouldargue that that one, one trunch,

(43:08):
that one layer, that one, thatone chunk in outperforms dollar
cost averaging.
Right, if you was, if theamounts were equitable, so
that's the other thing.
Then finally I'd say, um, I'dsay so, I'm skipping ahead now.
I'd say, like, the other way islike layering in.
So say, like today, becauseit's 65k, and then you're saying
, okay, I want to put 10 grandin as an example, and you say

(43:28):
I'm going to put this in fourchunks.
So you put two, uh, two and ahalf grand in at 65k today, yeah
, and then bitcoin sells off 20%and it's down at like 52k.
You buy your next two and ahalf grand and then it sells off
again another 20, 40, 40, uh,40 grand.
You put another next two and ahalf grand in.
It may bounce from those levels.
You may only get filled, youknow, half of your allocation

(43:50):
and you may have to add the reston the all-time high break, or
it breaks it and then it's,you're fully in a bear market
and then, as it goes all the waydown, you've just bought all
the way down.
Now look at my story as Iillustrated before.
If I just adopted that strategyearly on, I would have really
been reaping the benefits andperhaps we wouldn't even be on
this podcast today.
Right.
Oh, dash my dreams, right.
Little tear in my eye now.
So, um, that's another way todo it.

(44:11):
So just three ways to reallyget in right.
So one is just dollar costaverage, don't even look, just
autopilot strategy.
The other one is like a bitmore ballsy.
Yeah, you just go in and justdon't look until everyone's
screaming about it again, andthen probably a good time still.
And then the other way is justto layer in.
So just divide your allocation,whatever you want to put in,
and then divide it into fourchunks and just get in today and
then get in if it drops and getin if it drops and get in if it

(44:32):
drops, and so on and so forth.
So but often, you know I'veshown you in those charts when
people think it's going to comeback and let them in, it just
doesn't.
And I've also said in some ofmy coverage in your group that
actually the best Bitcoinbreakouts, the strongest ones,
they go and they don't let youget in.
In fact, I took a trade andshared it.
You know it was one of those Igot in.
Yeah, I could have got betterentry, but it just didn't give
him one and it just ran.

(44:53):
So that's like the the best,the best breakouts.
Not going to go too much intonitty-gritty or technicals how
we can see that, but maybe foranother day, yeah, so now I'm
going to get on to uh, we'vedone how to invest, now I'm
going to say how much toallocate, right.
So, um, when it comes to howmuch to allocate, I mean, look,
you've got to speak to afinancial advisor, right?

Dr James (45:09):
it's a deeply personal decision, but I would just this
is the thing.
This is the thing, right,because it all depends on goals
and objectives, doesn't it?
And that's why all these Sorryto jump in there, but that's why
some of the stuff you see outthere really annoys me right?
It's really dangerous, becauseit's like people are like, yeah,
go all in on X, y and Z, andit's like you're unable to say

(45:30):
that with any precisionwhatsoever unless you know
somebody's goals and objectivesand where they currently are.
To be able to plot the journey,you need to know the
destination, you need to know atwhich position somebody starts.
So yeah, man, it's.
It's good that you put thatlittle disclaimer in there.
You know what I mean.
What we're doing right now iswe're just putting people in a
place where they can do as muchof that themselves as possible,

(45:51):
which is obviously really cool,totally, man, totally, totally
with you man.

Dr Sandeep (45:55):
So, yeah, I mean, uh , once more I speak to your
financial advisor, but, um, butlike a kind of like, you know,
with my friends or family youknow one of my uncles, even
there, I was um, chilling withhim on saturday he's like, yeah,
god, I'm gonna do it now.
Then what should I do?
And we set him up and he's likehow much I put in?
And I was like, listen, justput in whatever amount that if
you lose it isn't gonna hurt you.

(46:15):
Yeah, that's just my generickind of like rule to him, right,
and so I'd recommend that toany anyone listening.
I give the same advice to myloved ones as I would to the
market.
Um, and again, like you know,an amount that lets you sleep as
well.
So you might say, oh, you know,I'll put five percent in my
portfolio.
If I lose it, I don't care, Ican make another five percent.
That's true, but if you're now,it's disturbing your sleep.
That five percent is way toomuch, and I've been there as

(46:35):
well, not fun.
And then, yeah, that isprobably how I'd say as well,
like people who are overleveraged, it does affect your
sleep, it affects other facetsof your life.
That's not the intention ofthis.
I don't think anyway.
And then I was going to comeback to the risk part, right?
So you know, we speak aboutrisk and again, just this is
important to how much toallocate Poison is dictated by

(46:57):
its dose.
So if you take a paracetamol,right, it's probably okay, it's
therapeutic, but if you take 100in one go, it's probably no
good for you.
Yeah, I think it's very similarregarding Bitcoin.
You know, like 1% for somebodymay be super therapeutic,
whereas 10% may be therapeuticfor somebody else, but for that
same first person, 10% could belike pathological.
You know, it could really hurtthem, especially if they're
wrong, you know, especially ifwe're all wrong, like who knows?
So hopefully that just kind ofgives some clarification and

(47:20):
there's actually like a bit ofI'd say it's become a meme at
this point but some very, verysmart people on the internet as
well, some yeah, I'm not gonnafry out some economics
economist's names right now, butthey even, you know, postulate
that not having one percent ofbitcoin in your portfolio is
riskier than having the onepercent, because it's an
asymmetric bet.
Right, that the bet is if Ihave this one percent, I lose

(47:42):
one percent, but if I'm right, Icould gain ten percent or five
percent.
Nonetheless, it's an ace.
The upside, you know, it's justgreater than the downside.
So that is their, their thesisthat having one percent makes uh
makes a lot of sense, ratherthan uh not having it.
Okay, cool, I'm gonna now finishup.
I've got just the final fewcharts and these are the tools
that I've been using, you know,and I wish I had them before,

(48:04):
but I just didn't know so much.
I'm giving you some real alphahere.
So let's talk about how to exitnow.
Let's just say you're in themarket, you've layered in
whatever happens next.
You're in and then bitcoin doessome craziness and goes 100k,
150k.
Well, how do you know when tosell?
Because you've seen it can godown 85 and maybe you don't want
to hold through an 85 drawdownand then hold it through the
next one.
Maybe there isn't the next one,maybe this is the cycle top of

(48:25):
cycle tops.
So there's this uh strategy.
I call it again.
I share this with my friends.
I call it the hot potato right,hot potato thirds right, and so
I can't remember.
I learned this from some otherobviously smart person and it
just basically goes like, let'ssay, you bought at like 30K and
now it's at 60K and you've gotthat hot potato feeling.
Yeah, I did this one recentlyfor Solana.
Solana just did a crazinessfrom October to now and I was in

(48:48):
at the same time, the 16, whenbecause it's 16K, I think I was
behind Solana at 16 and $20.
That was pretty much myallocation, and what all I did
is like, when it got like, thatfeeling was oh you know, I'm
feeling awkward, I'm thinkingabout it too much.
I just sold a third, yeah, sonow I have two thirds left.
And then it surprisingly justran up again.
I was like, oh damn, maybe Ishouldn't have sold a third, but

(49:09):
nonetheless, you cannot getthat perfect.
So then it ran up more and thenI got a hot potato feeling
again looking at the price.
It looked toppy to me and Isold a third of that two thirds,
yeah, so I'm still in, right.
And then this thing ran up.
You know, obviously, pull back.
And then it ran up again andsame thing now of that stack
that's remaining.
I sold a third of that.
So by doing that, you're justalways exposed to the market as

(49:30):
it goes, every higher prices.
So that's like a cool place.
You know cool strategy.
If, um, if you know, you wantto just be able to soothe that
itch, I think that's quite goodfor, like you know, no
disrespect to anyone, but likeemotional traders will probably
do quite well on that.
The other way, obviously, is,if you are quite emotional as
well, or just in general, youwill use data to help form those
decisions.
Then trying to call the top isvery hard, but there is some

(49:52):
data in the fact that Bitcoin is, you know, inverted commas on
chain, like you say, it's said,distributed ledger technology.
Why is decentralized?
So everybody can view.
You know the information isfreely available.
It's a record that is immutable.
You cannot, you cannot, youcannot break it, you cannot
change it, you cannot cheat it.
So, as a result, using all thatdata that's on the Bitcoin

(50:15):
chain, they can makemathematical models such as this
one.
So this is called the MVRVZscore.
Again, it's onlookintobitcoincom and so this
one is eerily accurate.
If you look at the, you can seethe price in the black.
So obviously we see the Bitcoinprice trending upwards.
And then there's another chartbelow it, this orange line, and
what it shows is movements ofBitcoin on the chain.

(50:38):
So that's as far as myrudimentary understanding goes.
But if we just look at thebitcoin tops, you can see that
that mvrv score is crazy.
It's in that red zone at thetop.
So, for people who arelistening, there's a green at
the bottom which tells us whenit's probably a goodbye, and
then there's this red at thebottom, this band at the top
sorry red band at the top whichshows us that it's probably a
good time to move out.
And actually it's been eerilyaccurate for all of the bitcoin

(51:00):
tops.
So if the mvrv score starts togo quite close to the red and
you're feeling uncomfortable,maybe trim some off.
So I wish I knew that in priorcycles, because it would have
saved me a whole world of pain.
And the second model that Ithink is probably even easier to
use it's called the bitcoininvestor tool.
Yeah, two-year ma multiplier.
And so there are two lines onit.
There's a green line andthere's a red line following

(51:22):
bitcoin's price.
The green one is at the bottomboundary, shall we say, and the
red one's on the upper end.
Now, anytime bitcoin was abovethat red line, yeah, it was a
good time to take some off orstart selling, yeah, and if you
did that during you know any ofthese cycles, it would have
worked out quite well for you,especially this um the two, the
twenty thousand dollar cycle top.
It probably would have told youto start getting out like 10.
You might have taken some offat 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20.

(51:45):
Yeah, you're still well quidsin, you know, you're still well
quids in.
So I think that works reallywell.
And then you've got the greenband, which again remember,
where I was puking my positionsat the 3k mark, at the 6k mark.
If I had this tool there itwould have told me I shouldn't
be a seller, I should actuallybe a buyer.
So hopefully that's just someum, interesting alpha and how I
would approach the market now.
And then I just finish off withone little adage from warren

(52:06):
buffett right, one of ourfavorites, James, and it goes be
fearful when others are greedyand be greedy when others are
fearful.
So that's a famous warrenbuffett quote.
And actually, interestingly,this local high, what we're
experiencing now.
A few posts ago, in your groupagain, when all coins were doing
craziness yeah, they, you knowagain, I actually said that.
I said I could be wrong here.
I said, but I've seen thisbefore what all coins do

(52:27):
craziness at these interim topsbecause obviously all coins do
perform, you know, in clustersand across sectors they do
perform, but in bursts, yeah,and then later on they have this
sort of what I've observed.
This is broader market movewhere they all move right.
Money moves from bitcoin toaltcoins, what they call alt
season, and typically thathappens after bitcoins uh,
topped, but nonetheless you seeall coins go crazy at these tops

(52:50):
and local tops and um, interimthings.

Dr James (52:52):
So yeah, once again, be fearful when others are
greedy and be greedy when othersare fearful zing, and you know
what I love that quote as welland it's very true, very true,
by the great warren buffett.
And you know what Sunny and Iwere talking off camera just
before we hit the record button.
We were talking about booksthat we like whenever it comes

(53:12):
to trading and if anybody wantsto really expand their trading
knowledge technical analysis inthe financial markets and I
can't remember who that book isby, but it's right, oh, john
murphy, john murphy, it justcame to me.
Really cool book.
If anybody wants to brush up onthis stuff.
You know you'll see tradinginvest in a whole new way.
We don't advocate following anystrategy to the letter, but

(53:35):
certainly it's a good frameworkthrough which to expand your
knowledge.
And you know, the deeper anddeeper you go down the trading
rabbit hole is, the more andmore you realize that actually
the only way you can make moneyis if you take it from someone
else.
Basically, right.
So if you're doing the sameshit as everybody else, well,
chances are you're not going tomake any money, right, because
it's the 10%, who are maybethinking a little

(53:56):
counterintuitively, that arethere cleaning up.
And it's very important to justhave that mindset whenever you
go into this stuff Very, very,very cool.