January 2, 2024 • 47 mins
Unlock the future of digital currency with us as we cast a discerning eye over Chia's prospects for 2024. From the echoes of a challenging year to the whispers of recovery, this episode offers a treasure trove of insights, including diverse price predictions and a robust SWOT analysis of the cryptocurrency. We're not just gazing into a crystal ball; we're laying out the concrete facts and expert opinions, including those of Chia farmers and investors, to arm you with the knowledge you need. Plus, we're making sense of it all for the uninitiated with beginner-friendly resources that promise to clear the fog surrounding Chia's innovative landscape.
Experience the powerhouse behind Chia's coin as we spotlight the legendary Bram Cohen, Gene Hoffman, and their cutting-edge contributions to the crypto market. In our exclusive conversation with Jack from Chia in China, we unpack the cultural currents propelling Chia's popularity across the Asia Pacific. This episode peels back the layers of Chia's network, exposing the strength of its security measures and the potential pitfalls for developers. It's a fine balance between opportunity and challenge, and we're here to navigate the nuances of partnerships, exchange support, and wallet functionality that could shape Chia's trajectory.
Peering over the horizon, we contemplate the strategic moves Chia might dance towards, including the lucrative realm of virtual private blockchain services. As the tides of regulation and banking sentiment ebb and flow, we weigh the threats against the glimmering prospects that lie ahead. Lastly, we offer a guiding hand to those embarking on Chia farming, with practical guides for GPU plotting and more. Join us for an episode that promises to be as enlightening as it is engaging, charting a course through the complex yet captivating world of Chia.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
So welcome to a forward-looking evaluation of
Chia, the cryptocurrency thatmaybe you've heard of.
If you're a member of thischannel, you probably definitely
have heard of them, but maybeyou're new and you haven't heard
of them in the past.
Today we're going to be lookingat some forward-looking stuff.
We'll be talking about some ofthe things that have gone on the
past year in 2023, but this ismainly looking at 2024.
(00:23):
We're going to actually giveyou a couple of ideas around
some of the things that I thinkcould be in stock for Chia that
are exciting.
We're going to take a look at afull SWAT analysis.
That's strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats that
are on the horizon for 2024 forChia, the company specifically.
We're also going to drop andthis is going to be fun to start
(00:45):
off with a price prediction andI'm going to give a high side,
low side and probably middlerange price prediction where I
think exactly probably will be,and we're also going to, at the
end of this, talk about manydifferent resources out there
that I think are good for peoplethat might be new.
I'm going to show you guys someof those as we get involved in
this video.
So let's get started.
(01:07):
I hope you guys are ready for alot of fun.
So we can see the price of Chiatoday has crested into the 40
plus range and it has been awhile since we've been there.
How long has it been sincewe've been there?
Well, if we go back we can seethat it was actually April when
we were last there.
The end of April was when wewere last in the 40 range and
(01:29):
the beginning of actuallyJanuary 2023, we were not doing
too hot at all.
We were in the 29 ish rangeright there.
We did have a pretty big run upinto February that held out
until the end of April and afterthat point we of course had a
downward trajectory that didculminate all the way in October
with the big announcements ofstaff layoffs and also there
(01:51):
were bringing on a market makerselling some of the pre-farm and
some of the other things thatwere challenging to Chia this
past year, in this past bearcycle that in 2024 look like
they've overcome.
So that's some points ofoptimism there.
But definitely, looking at theprice of where Chia is at today,
I feel good as a Chia farmer.
Tell me, if you are a Chiafarmer, how you feel about the
(02:14):
price of Chia right now,especially if you're a farmer.
Now also, of course, investorsare going to have probably a
significantly differentviewpoint on the price of Chia.
If you happen to be an investoror a buyer of XCH itself, let
me know in the comments belowwhat you think is going to be
the price targets.
As a matter of fact, everybodygo in the comments and drop what
you think your 2024 priceprediction is for Chia.
(02:38):
So to start out with, this isnot financial advice.
This is based upon where I haveseen Chia in the past and this
is guesswork.
Anybody who tells you that theyhave more than guesswork going
into this is lying to you.
So this is guesswork and I baseit on a couple of things.
So I do see a low side for Chiain 2024.
(03:00):
We'll start off with this.
I see a low side for Chia in2024 actually looking pretty
darn decent.
I see Chia potentially hitting45 as its low side.
So I do see a number up fromhere throughout the next couple
of months and I do think that weshould hopefully be to a point
where the low side is somewherein the mid 40s.
(03:20):
I think that's a very realpossibility and there has been
talk of people saying there's alot of resistance in the low 40s
.
We're going to find out whetherwe can break out of that.
If we can't, then we might beback in the 30s.
Of course, anything's possiblehere, but low side 45 seems
realistic to me, midrange target.
Let me talk about theconditions around what I think
(03:42):
the midrange target are.
I think Chia took a lot ofadditional heat on the company
itself, a lot of additionalstress, a lot of additional
scrutiny from external peoplewho were invested in Chia during
the last bear cycle, and Ithink that is going to be
something that is reflected inwhat we saw with that price
(04:03):
going down into the very low 20sbriefly in October.
I think that we've moved pastthat point in time.
We're seeing a much moreoptimistic crypto ecosystem
emergence.
We're seeing Chia trendpositively with the other crypto
compatriots that it has in theecosystem out there and I think
it would not be unrealistic atall to see a midpoint price of
(04:24):
about 75 for Chia.
I think 40 was where weprobably would have been at more
towards the lead up to Octoberhad we not been hit with that
Really bad news over severalother companies and we're going
to get to the SWAT analysis andwhy that particular thing.
Keep that in mind.
That's going to come back up inthe SWAT analysis for sure.
(04:44):
So midpoint, seeing a $75 pricepoint, is something I think is
actually pretty probable.
Let's talk about the high side.
This one's the exciting one.
This one gets me rubbing myhands together.
So IPO Chia, of course, has somuch talk about IPO.
That has fueled so much of whyI am actually interested in Chia
(05:07):
, but also that has fueled a lotof speculation from other
people that are interested inChia.
Now let me be the first to sayChia is not XCH.
However, xch is an asset onChia's balance sheet from the
pre-farm.
Chia and the community are notthe same thing.
This is not a SWAT analysis ora price prediction of the
(05:28):
community.
This is really just looking atChia, the company, and what they
very likely, in my opinion, areheading towards.
This is not looking at all ofthis.
Stuff could be done again forthe community and it would be
wildly different as far as whatindividual assets, what things
are hot, what things are not,what things are trending, what
(05:48):
the strengths, weaknesses, allof that stuff.
It's going to look vastlydifferent from a community
analysis than it does from CNI,chia Network Incorporated the
company analysis.
So this IPO We've all beenwaiting for it.
Everybody's excited for it.
We've had tons of hints aroundit.
What part of that big implosionthat we saw was actually the
(06:10):
loss of their underwriter, whichof course had a portion of
liquidity I believe that wasaccessible by Chia to staunch
them through towards a launch,and that was credit suites.
That implosion After thathappened, of course that was bad
.
Essentially, jean has mentionedseveral times he's he's, he's
banked at some bad banks.
So don't bank where Jean banksis something he has said before
(06:33):
and certainly I'm going to tryto stay.
He should publish a list ofwhere he banks, so other people
can just not make that.
But we do see that IPO potential, really probably if, if we're
looking at a bull market in2024,.
Let me just throw out moreguesswork Because, again, this
is all guesswork and none ofthis is financial advice.
More guesswork to me indicatesthat we should probably see a
(06:56):
bear market retraction.
If, like that, we're not goingto see the bear market, it's,
it's gone.
It's probably bull market fromhere on out, is my guess.
And if it is bull market fromhere on out, the best time for a
crypto company to go public ifthey have the capability of
doing so, and certainly we'veseen with the Bitcoin ETF.
(07:17):
It's not just I want it tohappen, it's the Dux iron a row
with the SEC and all this otherstuff for you to go public or
for you to get an ETF listing.
So if we do see the potentialfor them to actually be able to
time it on their timeline,hitting that IPO during a hotter
cycle would be important.
Certainly, you have a lot ofthe VCs out there and this is
(07:40):
one of the things that was a bigshift of the funds that were
available in the cryptoecosystem when it was hot to
invest in the crypto ecosystembefore things like chat, gbt
came out and revolutionized andshowed investors the next thing
that they jumped onto, andcrypto fundraising, paired with
the bear market and the downturnthat crypto was having, paired
(08:03):
with the regulatory outlook, wasbad.
So if they can time it, 2024seems like a really good year to
actually execute it, if theycan time it, and so I hope that
they can.
What price do I see if they'reable to time it?
Let me.
Let me say I think this wouldbe a finite window, that it's
very, it's very much.
(08:23):
Also, let me just say guesswork, of course, but what if we saw
350?
I think if we see an IPO seeingChia's price at 4XCH, at 350
briefly, not because it makessense, let me be the first to
say that not because it makessense If they have an IPO,
they're going to have a stock.
That stock is not the samething as XCH.
(08:44):
There could be someincentivization, things that
happen with them, things thathappen with XCH in the future.
It would be interesting to see,but certainly I think we could,
if we are able to get that IPOhappening this year.
C 350 as some sort of a pricetarget and hopefully, by the
time you guys are watching thisvideo, we are still in the
(09:06):
forties and this is not headingtowards the lower thirties, but
I think we're going to beheading towards the mid forties
in the next month or so.
Here.
That's what I think most of therest of the crypto ecosystem is
going to mandate almost, and somuch of it is a rising tide
effect.
The factors that I think aremoving the price, and so the
(09:28):
factors that I see moving theprice of Chia right now, are
really driven by the marketmaker.
The market maker became anecessity and if you haven't
taken a chance, go back.
Watch the interview that I didwith Gene Hoffman, ceo of Chia
Network, on this.
He talked about the marketmaker.
Market makers are responsiblefor essentially taking out loans
(09:50):
from a crypto company or youknow an entity that has a lot to
lend and being able to exercisethat into funds that that
company could be able to utilizeand, as Gene talked about here,
that did provide a liquidityasset window for Chia that was
viable for them, for, he said inhis words, for the foreseeable
future.
Now what are the impacts ofthat on the market price of Chia
(10:15):
?
I think that that has a strongsuppression on the natural price
discovery of Chia, because themarket maker is naturally going
to be a greedy person, in myopinion.
Now they don't have infinitesupplies of XCH and you can, of
course, follow the pre-farmfunds and track that, but
definitely they don't have aninfinite supply of XCH, in that
(10:35):
not having an infinite supply ofXCH may give them an impetus to
have much of that during theirperiod where they have a loan on
it needing to be executed.
So they see, 40 probably is aincredibly attractive price
point.
Do they run out of it?
Does Chia need more money.
Do they have to go back to themarket maker during whatever
(10:58):
next period of loans they have?
That's all really goodquestions, but I don't think
it's likely that Chia, thecompany, themselves, has said we
need to keep the price here.
As a matter of fact, I thinkthat's incredibly unlikely for
them to have done.
But the market maker just beinga market maker, they're going
to be in it for them and they'regoing to maximize their revenue
(11:18):
as best as they can.
Chia the company, of coursewould, in my opinion, have
serious problems if they weresaying you're going to
artificially keep the price hereof XCH, leading into an IPO,
because that that XCH is anasset on Chia's balance sheet.
So that would kind of be thatwould be some manipulation.
I can't think that that wouldbe good.
So I think that's probably thebiggest thing that we're seeing
(11:41):
right now impacting the price ofChia.
That's why, if the market makerwas not here today, I do not
think that we would see theprice of Chia be going lower.
I think that the sell pressurewould actually be significantly
different and we would see theprice of Chia be significantly
higher.
Next thing that I think is themost important mover of the
price of Chia, the incrediblyfully featured L1 they have
(12:03):
brought about.
That is being used for thingslike the climate action data
trust and the tracking andinterchanging of credits on the
carbon markets.
These are real world utility.
This is real world utility.
This is one of the biggestexamples of real world utility
in all of crypto.
This is not JPEG monkeys.
(12:25):
This is real dollars in centsflowing between businesses
because of a reliable,trustworthy, underlying,
auditable public blockchain thatgovernments have agreed to use.
That's not common at all to havethose kind of confluences
happen with cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency is great atmaking some weird fringe stuff
(12:46):
happen.
Sometimes.
They're really good atinnovating with some really cool
stuff, but this kind of buy inthat we're seeing with the
climate action data trust, withChia as the foundational
blockchain powering, it issomething that definitely
deserves recognition as not justa huge pin in the hat, but, as
more and more people realize,this is a company that's
(13:06):
delivering.
That will make them, in myopinion, much more ready to
onboard themselves if they havethe same needs for a public,
verifiable, trusted and evenpotentially private but yet
public option for a company.
So that could be banks.
(13:27):
We've actually heard Jean talkabout banks, autos, auto lending
video games.
These have all come up in thepast as potentials and I think
they're all really exciting andespecially if we can see those
bigger names come into Chia,that's probably the best thing
that we would actually be ableto do to actually increase not
just the awareness of Chia butalso the price of XCH, as more
(13:49):
people would want to speculate.
However, there's challengesthere.
We're not yet to the SWAT,we're still just looking at
what's moving the price.
This is going to be a bit of along video.
Drop your comments below andlet me know what you guys are
thinking about.
All of this also so persona ofthe characters behind Chia, I
think, does not still to thisday play a small part in
(14:09):
actually Chia and its popularityand its success.
I think you see names like BramCohen, gene Hoffman, richard
Kiss, and you think to yourselfthese people actually know what
they're doing, they have hugeproven records of what they're
doing and they're able toexecute really well.
And so, especially when youlook at BitTorrent and Bram
Cohen, that supersedes so muchand he has changed the world in
(14:34):
the past.
When you look at eMusic and PGPand Gene Hoffman has changed
the world they're trying,admittedly, to change the world
again with cryptocurrency, foryou know really good and really
interesting reasons and usecases, but if they onboard and
they make it, it is a cross theboard going to be a credibility
(14:56):
pin in the hat for allcryptocurrencies out there.
Everybody should be behind Chiabecause if you're not, you're
looking at a, you're looking ata scenario where it's hard for
any company to ever be viableand that is not ideal for crypto
companies.
So hopefully everybody outthere while they may not
(15:17):
actually or they may have acompeting product or competing
L1, hopefully they can see thatthe success of Chia could tie
into their future success andcertainly the market viability
of cryptocurrency in general andname recognition of
cryptocurrency not havingnegative connotations that are
easily assignable by senators.
So probably the two things thatare smallest impacting it in my
(15:40):
opinion, are speculators andbig caps looking for
opportunities in anticipation ofbull market run up.
That probably is some peopleout there a little bit risky to
be doing that in my opinion, butcertainly I'm sure there's
people out there looking at that.
And Chia right now not in thehundreds but not in the 200,
still hanging around the mid 150range and also probably the
another thing that is actuallystabilizing and also really
(16:05):
smoothing out the curve effectsthat you might see else wise is
the pairing that is, just XCHBTCpairs that are out there on
various exchanges that they havea vested interest in making
sure there's some pricestability, so they could be.
I mean, this is going to betalked about later.
Those exchanges are notincredibly well known right now.
They could be manipulating.
(16:25):
They are not subjectnecessarily all of them to US
regulations.
So there's a lot of things thatcould be happening right now
and that is actually going to besomething that is critical that
we're going to talk about.
So I hope you've enjoyed usgiving a Chia price prediction
for 2024.
And that also talked about whatI think are some of the things
moving the price of Chia rightnow.
(16:46):
So let's move on to the nextpart, which is our SWOT analysis
, and if you're not somebody whohas done these before, that's
strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats.
Now when I say you know,weaknesses and threats, a lot of
people are like those are thesame thing.
So let me phrase this like thisWeaknesses already exist,
(17:08):
inherent in the company.
They are a owned deficit, ifyou would, and threats are an
externality that could at somepoint happen.
So those are the differencesthat you have there, and so
let's talk really quick aboutthe Chia strengths.
So we're going to start theSWOT with the S, and that is
Chia strengths, and one of thoseis that they have already done
(17:29):
tremendous foundational work onan incredibly security first L1
product.
That is huge.
You have Graham Cohen, themastermind, essentially behind
most of what has happened here,and the team that has executed
the actual deliverables has done, admittedly, an incredible job
up to this point of creatingfrom the ground up, which is
(17:52):
very weird for crypto, becauseusually it's like a fork of a
dog, of a something, but this isincredibly different because
this is ground up new creation.
Those are innovative products.
That's another huge reason I amvery interested in Chia is the
fact that it has been built fromthe ground up, with different
approaches, and that makes a lotof the deficiencies that we've
(18:16):
seen in things like Bitcoin andEthereum be easily addressed by
Chia, because they came laterand they got to look at the
mistakes and the problems and,when they were developing, take
those into account.
Next, we have to serve.
We have to admit they surviveda liquidity crunch in October.
That was, in my estimation,something that could have ended
the company.
(18:36):
I actually was incrediblyconcerned that it could have
ended the company.
I had talked about prices thatwere incredibly low because I
thought to myself, if Chiaactually does go away here, the
price of Chia will take atremendous hit, and I just
decided that it was better to bea pessimist in that stance
because bear marketsurvivability was not guaranteed
(18:57):
.
But definitely we're looking ata point now where they have
proven out that they can comeback and they can deliver and
they are viable.
They're not going away.
They survived a liquiditycrunch Huge strength.
Next, there's a massive uptakeof Chia happening in the Asia
Pacific region and this isinteresting and also challenging
(19:19):
and also hard to understand andput a finger on, because the
cultural differences aresignificant and I do hope to
talk to Jack from Chia in Chinaat some point in the near future
to get his opinions aboutspecifically the Asia Pacific
region impacts that we're seeingon Chia, because there's a lot
of interest and we're going toactually talk about one of those
(19:39):
not in the strength categorycoming up here shortly.
Another is Tangem.
Well, it's not your typicaltreasure.
It is actually possibly nottainted like a lot of these
other hardware wallets are, sothey do have a secure
implementation.
It does look like a fairlydecent solution.
So that is actually a securitywin and a strength for Chia.
(20:02):
Asic Time Loads the cost scalefunctionality of being able to
engineer an ASIC that is fasterthan Chia's ASICs is
ridiculously expensive, so itbecomes incredibly unlikely that
somebody would want to do thatand as a result of not wanting
to do that, you've got yourselfa pretty secure piece of
(20:23):
hardware, and that secure pieceof hardware was talked about by
Brandt and he did an AMA withsome Chia engineers, so you
should definitely check that out.
Links to all this stuff in thedescription below.
But the ASIC Time Lord AMA wasrecent and it is a fast piece of
hardware.
It increased the net securityof the Chia blockchain quite a
bit as well by having that.
(20:44):
So really that is another checkmark in the Chia strengths
category.
Next, let's move on to theactual security budget and get a
little bit more finite in whatwe're talking about when we're
talking about the security ofthe Chia blockchain.
So the Chia blockchain hastremendous net space right now
that we're going to talk aboutan interesting outlier, but 30
(21:07):
exibytes essentially is atremendous amount of net space
to have.
That is a lot of spinning harddrives.
I mean, that is a lot, a lot ofspinning hard drives.
That is a freaky amount ofspinning hard drives, and so
that is a security mechanismthat is tenuous, and we have
people talking about furtherconsensus changes jumping in,
(21:29):
you know, accelerating timelines.
These are things that I thinkneed wider audience talking
about it and I'm talking aboutwe have hundreds of thousands of
farmers, and for a couple ofvocal people to ever make an
impact on Chia and the consensusis a danger.
We need to actually make surethat the masses of people are
(21:50):
better heard.
That's actually not necessarilygoing to be in the strengths
we're going to talk about thatone here coming up in just the
next, the next segment, but wedo have currently massive net
net space security budget as aresult of how many hard drives
are out there and the fact thatwe have not yet hit a having
cycle which is coming up, andthat having cycle is also going
(22:12):
to be something that we'retalking about, but that having
cycle could have impactsdepending upon workloads for
certain folks.
That could be interesting.
It is certainly somethinginteresting to watch.
Another check this one's huge isdata layer.
Data layer holds so manypossibilities for verifiable
futures for Chia, and when I sayverifiable futures, things that
(22:36):
we may not have even thoughtabout yet, products we may not
have even thought about thatcould be verifiable.
Certainly, some of them havebeen talked about.
As far as the data andverifiable data that is owned by
you as an individual and yourincentivization, that could
actually be tied directly intosomething like the Chia
blockchain for an authenticityback end that could be used by
(22:57):
all sorts of different people,because this really does fit
into a blockchain use case ofneeding publicly auditable,
mutually agreed upon, that didhappen.
That data does exist.
This is the person at this timethat owned it, information
exchanges, so that is one of thethings.
That data layer underlyingtechnology is still wildly,
(23:19):
wildly important, and I thinkwe're going to see that be some
of the first huge products thatthe community is able to develop
out there as well Checkmark,and in a world where timing
matters, let's just say this oneis just happenstance, but
certainly I'm going to put it inthe strengths, because current
day is current day and where wesee Chia right now heading into
(23:40):
2024, it is a, in my opinion,positive market experience for
most cryptos out there headinginto a bull run.
It does indeed look like thereprobably will be a bull run in
2024.
Again, not financial advice.
Don't go make decisionsfinancially based upon what I
said, but let me know in thecomments below if you agree or
(24:01):
disagree with me.
I think it could be a bullmarket and if it is a bull
market, they're in the rightplace.
Hey, they survived, they madeit to here.
Reap those rewards.
Now let's move on to weaknesses.
So this one is, I would say,interesting.
Hopefully I can talk aboutthings that you might not have
(24:21):
heard of, but if you haveweaknesses of Chia, drop them
down below right now, before westart, and let's get started.
So on to the weaknesses side ofthis equation.
So some of the things that Ithink just jump out really off
the bat at me as really largeweaknesses are how difficult it
(24:46):
is for new developers to getinto Chia, and we don't see
massive flights of developersinto Chia.
That's going to be a hard oneto crack.
To be honest with you, chia isnot easy and, as a result of
that, chia education andoutreach is challenging.
Acknowledging that and findingways to remediate that or to
even create libraries on top ofthat.
(25:07):
Not sure what the status of theSDK is, but definitely
something that I am interestedin.
But the grants program wasoriginally envisioned as
something that would be actuallyable to help developer outreach
.
We didn't see that many grantrecipients that turned into
super duper successful.
We do have some not to saythere's not any but many of them
(25:29):
have floundered, and so how thegrants program went down
actually became a center of alot of controversy at one point
for Chia.
That was not a benefit to Chiaat all.
So it's good that they'retaking some time to reevaluate
their grants program right nowand looking at what they're
going to do as they move intothe next iteration of the grants
program, because I think thatties in very strongly to the
(25:52):
Chia list outreach and educationthat they're probably going to
need to do if they want peopleto onboard that are capable of
developing in their native smartcontract language, a crucial
milestone for a smart contractbased L1 cryptocurrency.
And the number two thing iscertainly something that I am
sure everybody on this channelwould has told me at some point
(26:14):
in time in the comments orsomething like that Major
exchange support for Chia.
We don't see Chia readilyaccessible on the mainstream
major as an XCH on themainstream major exchanges today
.
That makes onboarding newpeople that are interested in
buying Chia hard.
That is a form of pricesuppression as a result of that.
Potentially it also could limitpeople from speculating.
(26:37):
But definitely the ability toonboard into Chia as somebody
who's interested incryptocurrency is something that
is hard to do if you'reespecially a US based person.
That has to change.
It made sense when the paradigmwas that they didn't want to
touch any of the pre farm.
It made a lot of sense to me.
(26:57):
That, however, has beenbroached.
So providing liquidity ifneeded at some point to
exchanges in the ability to haveXCH be significantly more
fungible does make a lot ofsense to me at this point.
Let me know what you thinkabout that in the comments below
.
The next thing is the walletdoes have problems.
The wallet can get into stateswhere it's just certain things
(27:21):
don't work out too well.
I have a wallet that's likethat.
Granted, I've done about everystupid thing possible in that
demonstration wallet and it hasbeen a long lived wallet but
there are NFTs that I can't moveout right now.
Even with 0.1 XCH as a fee justdoesn't work.
So there is something wrongfundamentally with that.
(27:41):
Now, I was able to move the XCHout of it and I was able to
move the cats out of it.
However, there's a potentialthat that actually ties into the
next issue here, and that isthe mem pool.
There does appear to besomething I don't know what not
necessarily working wonderfullyin the mem pool at current, and
whether or not that is somethingthat gets overhauled is
(28:02):
interesting to me.
So I think there's some roomfor improvement as far as that.
Whether we see the block spaceincrease doesn't necessarily
make a big difference.
We see a dust storm of XCH, asright now, which is inscriptions
on Chia.
The client is actually able tooperate.
If you have a non messed upclient, perfectly fine.
(28:23):
However, if you have a messedup client, I can't even tell you
if that's what is the matterwith my current wallet, but
that's, of course, a very firsthand recollection of what's
going on.
I talked to Josh about this andhe said there was probably some
coin pairs that I created anoffer with at some point in time
and like, just didn't cancel itor spend it out.
I tried sending all the XCH tomyself again to clear everything
(28:46):
that didn't work out.
So, yeah, there's potentially apair combo or something like
that that could be stuck outthere still and that could be
harming my ability to movethings out of the mem pool, and
that is not necessarily a greatthing.
I don't know if that'stechnically what's going on, but
something is for sure going onwith that wallet.
Next, onboarding high value likevalue add crypto compatriarch
(29:12):
companies.
This is a weakness in myopinion, because we don't see
Chia doing this and we see a lotof other cryptocurrency
companies out there activelysoliciting getting working in
partnership with othercryptocurrency companies and
that does lead to exposure ofthat crypto one to crypto two
(29:33):
kind of audience thing thatgrows the base of people
interested developers, investors, producers, speculators,
everybody and I think that's agood thing.
So I would hope to see thathappen a little bit more in 2024
.
Certainly, there is a lot ofanimosity almost, or hostility
that seems to be prevalent incrypto Twitter, and I would urge
the team to ignore cryptoTwitter.
(29:55):
Crypto Twitter doesn't evenmatter.
Let's be honest.
Crypto Twitter really doesn'tmatter.
You're not.
You're the only thing itmatters for are mainly like the
junkest class assets out there.
So, yeah, that's that's onething I hope to see in the near
future.
Another weakness is there isheadcount, that is, people that
(30:15):
were working specifically on thechia client on the front end of
it.
I don't think we're going tosee the cadence of releases that
we had seen in the past At somepoint.
Like you have a featurecomplete, it just needs security
product, and like that shouldbe at some point in time.
Here the client itself has beendeveloped by chia and like this
(30:37):
is a chicken and egg thing,like what.
This isn't in clear cut reallyweakness, but it is like it kind
of seems like it.
We don't have third partyclient developers that are
working on desktop clients forchia.
There's not separateimplementations for the most
part, aside from Mac and Maris,which is Docker based and not.
I don't think that's easier formost people to get into, and
(30:58):
I'm unaware of other clientbased implementations for the
desktop that are capable of allthe feature set cats and FTS,
everything like the chiareference client is.
So how the chia referenceclient evolves and the amount of
effort that's been put into itand what effort gets put into it
next, I think is somethingthat's very interesting to look
at.
I think everybody should bethinking about that question
(31:21):
Next.
This one was, of course, goingto come up Nakamoto coefficient
and we see that droppingprecipitously due to no SSD.
And no SSD is not a typicalchia pool.
They are the centralized chiapool, so you're binding your
work essentially to their keyset and you're producing the
work for them with your storageand getting rewarded for it.
(31:43):
And they do have.
Let me not let me not justglance over this.
They have the best compressiontechnology out there.
They have an incredibly simpleclient.
It's a compelling case forsomebody to use them, but at the
same time, that is impactingthe Nakamoto coefficient of chia
.
I think that impacts chia'sability to talk about themselves
(32:05):
as the most decentralizedblockchain without the potential
for pushback from knowledgeablepotential customers on that.
That doesn't help them bring onnew clients potentially,
because these are people thatare going to be validating what
is said to them, not just youknow some small business.
This is you.
Typically, the people that chia, to my knowledge, has been
(32:26):
talking to are very largeentities, organizations, and
independent verification isgoing to be something that they
do.
So definitely, no SSD is aweakness, but at the same time,
there is a chance that they'regoing to adopt a protocol change
for their harvester, so that itmay not, you may end up forming
(32:48):
the blocks yourself, so thatwould be ideal if we see that
happen.
The next thing is we see certainpersonalities in chia
frequently, but we don't knowthat much about the company
itself outside of that.
That leads to an opaqueness, Ithink, for the community that is
not something talked about, notsomething that most companies
(33:10):
actually talk about.
Sometimes they might call itculture or something like that.
You might have a transparencyreport or they might put
together some sort of forwardlooking statement on this is how
we are doing things.
That kind of insight doesn'tseem to exist for chia, and so
that would be one thing thatwould be interesting to see,
because you don't have a lot of.
I mean, you know Jean, you knowBram, you know the faces out
(33:31):
there that you see and what theysay and stuff like that, but
you don't know very many otherpeople that are at chia, and so
what their contributions are issomething that I feel like it
would be very beneficial tolearn more about, because it
sounds like a lot of thesepeople actually do wildly
interesting things.
We've got a new puzzle out forchia, which puzzles are kind of
the built in smart contractsthat are capabilities of the
(33:54):
chia blockchain by somebody thatI never heard of before.
So I think there's a lot ofunder the hood people that are
brilliant, working on things andgetting their horns tooted from
something like marketing, whichis the next weakness that she
has, and that is because wedon't have a ton of marketing
(34:14):
and, honestly, if they'respending money and Jean has said
this many times they'respending money on acquiring new
customers.
That makes a lot of sense.
However, at the same time,there's a public perception of
independent research that anycompany is going to do, and so
having some sort of brandbuilding, brand recognition,
outside of that is somethingthat I think could be beneficial
(34:35):
.
It's my take on it.
You guys, let me know what youthink the biggest weakness that
you see, independent of whatI've said, is with chia.
Definitely, of course, no majorexchanges has got to be like
near the top of that.
That is, that's a showstopperfor so many people that I've
talked to that are interested inchia, and then they're like,
where can I get it?
And you're like, let's get aVPN installed.
(34:58):
And it's like, no, they're notgoing to do that.
And they actually put you in asus category immediately when
you suggest that.
So that is hard and cryptocom'sapp is functional and you can
buy chia, but it is also not avery favorable experience for
most people out there.
So that is it's hard sell.
Most people that have cryptocomare like I'm in it for, like
(35:20):
the, the card and the rewards.
They're not in it for the userexperience of the app, because
that is actually a horribleapplication to use on your
mobile device.
So, yeah, those are theweaknesses.
Now this is exciting.
This part here is talking aboutthe opportunities that could be
present out there for Chiaspecifically that I see, and
(35:42):
take a moment, go down in thecomments, if you haven't yet,
and tell me what you think theopportunities Chia should be
jumping at or that you see are,and let's see if we talk about
them here.
The first one this is big theETH Chia Bridge.
I so this is where I wastalking about the outreach with
other crypto cryptocurrencycompanies and how that doesn't
(36:03):
necessarily happen that much inChia or at all in Chia, for what
I can typically see, we couldsee and you see this huge in
Ethereum ecosystem Companiesplaying with each other, working
on their own tech.
Having that ETH Chia Bridgecould be a really easy way for
people to get into Chia and alsodo whatever they wanted in Chia
and exit back out.
(36:24):
So same goes for people withtheir XCH that I want to play
around in the ETH ecosystem, sothose two could be really good
cross pollinators.
I see that as being a majoropportunity for Chia.
Of course, I've talked aboutthis as a weakness, but let me
also say it's an opportunity.
The marketing, chia's marketingis a blank slate pretty much at
(36:44):
this point.
There's individual personapersonalities, but there's no
corporate, identifiable brandpersonality that Chia has, and
so the definition of that in apublic manner is something that
I think would be reallyinteresting to see Chia, the
company, undertake in 2024.
And I think it could havereally big impacts for them as a
company also as well.
(37:06):
Next, being in a position torelieve the market maker of
their market making activitiesat some point could be an
opportunity.
If they have the cash flow thatis and I mean they have a lot
of headcount.
I don't know exactly what it istoday, but it has been very
high in the past and I'm sureit's still pretty high for a
cryptocurrency company.
That amount of cash flow tofund that is not going to be
(37:29):
trivial.
They don't pay their employeesand crypto, which forces them to
go sell it at market rate topay their mortgage and stuff
like that they actually pay themin fiat.
So that's a good, admirablething to do, but definitely the
ability to say market maker,thank you for getting us through
that time.
We don't need to entail yourservices.
We're back to having themarkets themselves show us what
(37:53):
the value of Chia is and otherentities at that point would
start taking on market makerpositions.
Is my, my strong guess that ifthere was accessibility through
other major exchanges, thatwould be something that would be
a super bullish indicator to me, because it would show that
financially, the stability ofthe company has returned to
where they were at.
Whether or not they're thatcash flow positive, we don't
(38:16):
know.
They're a private company.
You could ask them on Twitterhow much money they're making.
They would probably decline totell you, and they probably
would have to decline to tellyou because if they are going
for an IPO, that would probablybe skewed towards manipulation
of a potential IPO listing.
So it makes sense for them notto talk about that but at the
same time, if there ever is a,let me say this as an
(38:37):
opportunity.
If there ever is, at some pointin time, a pivot from an IPO, I
hope Chia jumps on that as anopportunity to make the best
damned crypto pure company outthere that could ever be,
because that really is somethingthat would be remarkably viable
.
Chia's technology is firstclass.
(38:59):
That is an opportunity.
If that ever turns out like theIPO is not going to happen,
there is a way to spin that intolike the best damn crypto
company that is a pure cryptocompany out there.
Onboarding more payingcustomers into virtual private
blockchain.
Virtual private blockchain is avery hot topic and it is great
for industries that don't wantto associate with crypto but yet
(39:22):
want the securities that youcan get with crypto.
As far as multinationaltransactions, typically is what
I've seen Chia hopefully canonboard some people into their
virtual private blockchainoffering.
And, yeah, another opportunityis just that that redefining of
the company and who they arepublicly.
(39:43):
I say that that's important tome because I think it's the
perception and it's yet to becrafted, and so looking for that
to happen at one point would bereally something I think could
be world class for Chia,especially because they are so
unique where they're at.
They're so unique how they'vebeen created.
They're so unique thechallenging set of problems that
(40:04):
they address.
All right, this last one is thedangerous one.
Okay, these are the unknownsout there, these are the threats
.
These are not necessarilythings that Chia has going on
deficiencies currently, oranything like that.
These are externalities thatcould be possibilities, but
things that you would want tohave on your radar Regulatory
(40:25):
lines.
I am not a lawyer, I'm notgoing to pretend to be a lawyer,
but Is 100% of the selling ofsecurities A?
Okay?
I would imagine, based uponother things I've read about
other rulings and regards toripple that they're probably
okay.
However, at the same time, Idon't know, does that imperil an
IPO?
I don't know.
So, like any regulatory lineslike those are not just in
(40:51):
regard to the sale of a portionof the pre farm.
Those are also in regards toother things that may or may not
exist out there in theregulatory ecosystem, which is
fast evolving towards the future.
It's evolving towards heavyhanded regulations on the crypto
industry, which is not probably, in my opinion, what we want to
see happen.
I've said it for a while and Ithink a lot of people have come
(41:11):
over to my side over the pastyear, seeing some of the scary
propositions that have been putout there, that if they were to
be, oh my God, they would be bad.
So that gets on to the next one.
Why do regulations?
In general, the ability ofcrypto as an entity is actually
not in an existential crisis.
Bitcoin is not in anexistential crisis.
(41:33):
Everything else has some levelof scrutiny on it and there is
definitely a push in the UnitedStates for that, and maybe
rightly so.
The United States loses itsmantra of being a tech leader in
this field because if we arestupid enough to regulate it, we
deserve to lose it.
In my opinion, hostile bankingenvironments for non-BTC players
(41:53):
could be a thing if and whenETFs are a thing.
So preferential treatmenttowards commodity BTC might be a
thing that certain banks lookat and try to delineate or draw
lines between the rest ofeverything out there and Bitcoin
, and it would actually prop uptheir bags to do that.
(42:14):
So that's another.
It'll probably manifest inlobbyists and regulations also,
but that is another thing on thehorizon that the entire
ecosystem should be looking outfor.
Another thing in the broadercrypto ecosystem, if we are
heading into a bull market, theflight of talent could be
something that is significantand real and there could be.
(42:38):
You know, it could be hard tomaintain talent if, especially
as a company that has developeda lot of core technologies
already, like Chia has if theycould look at it and say, hey,
in the next year or two, there'sa chance that I'm going to be
not needed my position becausethe work I'm doing isn't being,
(43:00):
you know, it's coming to a closein a year or two.
They could start looking nowfor other places.
That could happen in any cryptocompany at any time.
But the talent that is actuallycapable of doing a good job
writing and securing blockchaintechnology it is a small talent
base, so that is a, I think, bigthreat to many companies out
there.
I hope that the talent thatChia has, which is not
(43:22):
insignificant, is able to beretained, and sometimes that
comes at a cost.
So you know that isn'tnecessarily easy for satisfying
some of the other things that wetalked about.
This isn't trying to come upwith perfect.
This is just talking about allof it, and that's really what a
SWAT analysis does is.
It puts it all out there foreverybody to talk about and make
sure you sound off in thecomments below with what you
think could be on deck.
Next, this one is alwayslooming and it's the potential
(43:47):
unknown attack vectors that havenot been discovered through
audits or just are.
They were not just, they couldbe newly founded at any point in
time from some piece ofdevelopment work.
So that's a massive, neverending, expensive, hard to
mitigate concern that iseverywhere and you never know
(44:09):
what's going to happen untilthat bad thing happens.
It seems like in cryptocurrency, oh wow, that happens a lot.
So, especially around the ETHChia Bridge, that's that's a
place where you got to keep youreyes, because that is probably
the biggest risk that would beout there and, of course,
steering public sentiment in anegative news fashion towards
(44:29):
Chia wouldn't be good instead ofsteering it in a positive news
fashion towards you and I think,also the overall.
Every crypto company companyout there should be looking at
their public facing, messaginghow they can appear to be not
the problems that have haveplagued cryptocurrency, and Chia
(44:53):
really stands out as notactually being one of those
problem players.
But definitely there is muchroom for even growing and
advancing that messaging andthat helps further all crypto
companies out there in theirpotential to not be viewed as
just the next rug.
So those are the biggestthreats that I see there could
(45:15):
be for other cryptos regulatorycapture, issues around power
utilization.
The identification of certainactivities is fairly easy to do,
however, something as small asa Chia farm if you went really
small with a Chia farm and youjust had it BSSD's should be
something that everybody coulddo under the wire and not have a
(45:37):
concern about that, butcertainly it is something that
we need to think about.
So, no SSD.
I'm not going to put this inthe threats, but just to talk
about it.
No SSD I heard three XE bitefarmer is a thing.
They have a three XE bitefarmer.
That is a huge farm and so thatis right there.
(46:00):
I don't know where to classifythat.
Honestly, we'll probably justhave a whole like let's talk
about no SSD thing at some pointin the future.
Everybody, I hope you've enjoyedthis forward looking assessment
of where I think things couldbe going.
And remember, none of this isfinancial advice.
Do your own due diligence andbe very wary of anybody that's
trying to sell you anything incryptocurrency that is like a
(46:24):
product of cryptocurrency, likethat is.
There's a lot of that.
I think that we're getting outof the worst of it Because
people are getting awareness ofit, but then it's like if we're
starting another bull cycle,there will be another new crop
of people that are brand new andthey'll be like I'm going to
get into everything and theywill get absolutely wrecked.
So also spread the word topeople to be cautious of what
(46:47):
they get into, because there's alot of potential for economic
harm and cryptocurrency and mostpeople that just jump into
stuff without doing a lot ofindependent research are setting
themselves up for somedisasters Everybody.
I hope you have enjoyed this,and so, if you're new to Chia
and you're interested in gettingfarming, check out one of the
two guides that I've releasedrecently the Chia 2.0 GPU
(47:09):
plotting and farming 2023ultimate guide.
If you are a official Chia user, like that'll be a specific
type of compression that is notas big as the Giga horse
platform, which is what Icurrently utilize and am
replotting myself right now tosee 19s, and you can find that
guide in the how to farm Chiaand GPU plot with Giga horse 2.0
(47:32):
for Windows hard drive miningguide, and those are both in the
description below, as well ascheck the rest of the videos in
this channel.
We have a wealth of informationon Chia and definitely take
some time and check it out.
Don't forget there's cheatsheets on digital spaceportcom.
Everybody have a great one andI will check you guys out next
time.
So welcome to a forward-looking evaluation of
Chia, the cryptocurrency thatmaybe you've heard of.
If you're a member of thischannel, you probably definitely
have heard of them, but maybeyou're new and you haven't heard
of them in the past.
Today we're going to be lookingat some forward-looking stuff.
We'll be talking about some ofthe things that have gone on the
past year in 2023, but this ismainly looking at 2024.
(00:23):
We're going to actually giveyou a couple of ideas around
some of the things that I thinkcould be in stock for Chia that
are exciting.
We're going to take a look at afull SWAT analysis.
That's strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats that
are on the horizon for 2024 forChia, the company specifically.
We're also going to drop andthis is going to be fun to start
(00:45):
off with a price prediction andI'm going to give a high side,
low side and probably middlerange price prediction where I
think exactly probably will be,and we're also going to, at the
end of this, talk about manydifferent resources out there
that I think are good for peoplethat might be new.
I'm going to show you guys someof those as we get involved in
this video.
So let's get started.
(01:07):
I hope you guys are ready for alot of fun.
So we can see the price of Chiatoday has crested into the 40
plus range and it has been awhile since we've been there.
How long has it been sincewe've been there?
Well, if we go back we can seethat it was actually April when
we were last there.
The end of April was when wewere last in the 40 range and
(01:29):
the beginning of actuallyJanuary 2023, we were not doing
too hot at all.
We were in the 29 ish rangeright there.
We did have a pretty big run upinto February that held out
until the end of April and afterthat point we of course had a
downward trajectory that didculminate all the way in October
with the big announcements ofstaff layoffs and also there
(01:51):
were bringing on a market makerselling some of the pre-farm and
some of the other things thatwere challenging to Chia this
past year, in this past bearcycle that in 2024 look like
they've overcome.
So that's some points ofoptimism there.
But definitely, looking at theprice of where Chia is at today,
I feel good as a Chia farmer.
Tell me, if you are a Chiafarmer, how you feel about the
(02:14):
price of Chia right now,especially if you're a farmer.
Now also, of course, investorsare going to have probably a
significantly differentviewpoint on the price of Chia.
If you happen to be an investoror a buyer of XCH itself, let
me know in the comments belowwhat you think is going to be
the price targets.
As a matter of fact, everybodygo in the comments and drop what
you think your 2024 priceprediction is for Chia.
(02:38):
So to start out with, this isnot financial advice.
This is based upon where I haveseen Chia in the past and this
is guesswork.
Anybody who tells you that theyhave more than guesswork going
into this is lying to you.
So this is guesswork and I baseit on a couple of things.
So I do see a low side for Chiain 2024.
(03:00):
We'll start off with this.
I see a low side for Chia in2024 actually looking pretty
darn decent.
I see Chia potentially hitting45 as its low side.
So I do see a number up fromhere throughout the next couple
of months and I do think that weshould hopefully be to a point
where the low side is somewherein the mid 40s.
(03:20):
I think that's a very realpossibility and there has been
talk of people saying there's alot of resistance in the low 40s
.
We're going to find out whetherwe can break out of that.
If we can't, then we might beback in the 30s.
Of course, anything's possiblehere, but low side 45 seems
realistic to me, midrange target.
Let me talk about theconditions around what I think
(03:42):
the midrange target are.
I think Chia took a lot ofadditional heat on the company
itself, a lot of additionalstress, a lot of additional
scrutiny from external peoplewho were invested in Chia during
the last bear cycle, and Ithink that is going to be
something that is reflected inwhat we saw with that price
(04:03):
going down into the very low 20sbriefly in October.
I think that we've moved pastthat point in time.
We're seeing a much moreoptimistic crypto ecosystem
emergence.
We're seeing Chia trendpositively with the other crypto
compatriots that it has in theecosystem out there and I think
it would not be unrealistic atall to see a midpoint price of
(04:24):
about 75 for Chia.
I think 40 was where weprobably would have been at more
towards the lead up to Octoberhad we not been hit with that
Really bad news over severalother companies and we're going
to get to the SWAT analysis andwhy that particular thing.
Keep that in mind.
That's going to come back up inthe SWAT analysis for sure.
(04:44):
So midpoint, seeing a $75 pricepoint, is something I think is
actually pretty probable.
Let's talk about the high side.
This one's the exciting one.
This one gets me rubbing myhands together.
So IPO Chia, of course, has somuch talk about IPO.
That has fueled so much of whyI am actually interested in Chia
(05:07):
, but also that has fueled a lotof speculation from other
people that are interested inChia.
Now let me be the first to sayChia is not XCH.
However, xch is an asset onChia's balance sheet from the
pre-farm.
Chia and the community are notthe same thing.
This is not a SWAT analysis ora price prediction of the
(05:28):
community.
This is really just looking atChia, the company, and what they
very likely, in my opinion, areheading towards.
This is not looking at all ofthis.
Stuff could be done again forthe community and it would be
wildly different as far as whatindividual assets, what things
are hot, what things are not,what things are trending, what
(05:48):
the strengths, weaknesses, allof that stuff.
It's going to look vastlydifferent from a community
analysis than it does from CNI,chia Network Incorporated the
company analysis.
So this IPO We've all beenwaiting for it.
Everybody's excited for it.
We've had tons of hints aroundit.
What part of that big implosionthat we saw was actually the
(06:10):
loss of their underwriter, whichof course had a portion of
liquidity I believe that wasaccessible by Chia to staunch
them through towards a launch,and that was credit suites.
That implosion After thathappened, of course that was bad
.
Essentially, jean has mentionedseveral times he's he's, he's
banked at some bad banks.
So don't bank where Jean banksis something he has said before
(06:33):
and certainly I'm going to tryto stay.
He should publish a list ofwhere he banks, so other people
can just not make that.
But we do see that IPO potential, really probably if, if we're
looking at a bull market in2024,.
Let me just throw out moreguesswork Because, again, this
is all guesswork and none ofthis is financial advice.
More guesswork to me indicatesthat we should probably see a
(06:56):
bear market retraction.
If, like that, we're not goingto see the bear market, it's,
it's gone.
It's probably bull market fromhere on out, is my guess.
And if it is bull market fromhere on out, the best time for a
crypto company to go public ifthey have the capability of
doing so, and certainly we'veseen with the Bitcoin ETF.
(07:17):
It's not just I want it tohappen, it's the Dux iron a row
with the SEC and all this otherstuff for you to go public or
for you to get an ETF listing.
So if we do see the potentialfor them to actually be able to
time it on their timeline,hitting that IPO during a hotter
cycle would be important.
Certainly, you have a lot ofthe VCs out there and this is
(07:40):
one of the things that was a bigshift of the funds that were
available in the cryptoecosystem when it was hot to
invest in the crypto ecosystembefore things like chat, gbt
came out and revolutionized andshowed investors the next thing
that they jumped onto, andcrypto fundraising, paired with
the bear market and the downturnthat crypto was having, paired
(08:03):
with the regulatory outlook, wasbad.
So if they can time it, 2024seems like a really good year to
actually execute it, if theycan time it, and so I hope that
they can.
What price do I see if they'reable to time it?
Let me.
Let me say I think this wouldbe a finite window, that it's
very, it's very much.
(08:23):
Also, let me just say guesswork, of course, but what if we saw
350?
I think if we see an IPO seeingChia's price at 4XCH, at 350
briefly, not because it makessense, let me be the first to
say that not because it makessense If they have an IPO,
they're going to have a stock.
That stock is not the samething as XCH.
(08:44):
There could be someincentivization, things that
happen with them, things thathappen with XCH in the future.
It would be interesting to see,but certainly I think we could,
if we are able to get that IPOhappening this year.
C 350 as some sort of a pricetarget and hopefully, by the
time you guys are watching thisvideo, we are still in the
(09:06):
forties and this is not headingtowards the lower thirties, but
I think we're going to beheading towards the mid forties
in the next month or so.
Here.
That's what I think most of therest of the crypto ecosystem is
going to mandate almost, and somuch of it is a rising tide
effect.
The factors that I think aremoving the price, and so the
(09:28):
factors that I see moving theprice of Chia right now, are
really driven by the marketmaker.
The market maker became anecessity and if you haven't
taken a chance, go back.
Watch the interview that I didwith Gene Hoffman, ceo of Chia
Network, on this.
He talked about the marketmaker.
Market makers are responsiblefor essentially taking out loans
(09:50):
from a crypto company or youknow an entity that has a lot to
lend and being able to exercisethat into funds that that
company could be able to utilizeand, as Gene talked about here,
that did provide a liquidityasset window for Chia that was
viable for them, for, he said inhis words, for the foreseeable
future.
Now what are the impacts ofthat on the market price of Chia
(10:15):
?
I think that that has a strongsuppression on the natural price
discovery of Chia, because themarket maker is naturally going
to be a greedy person, in myopinion.
Now they don't have infinitesupplies of XCH and you can, of
course, follow the pre-farmfunds and track that, but
definitely they don't have aninfinite supply of XCH, in that
(10:35):
not having an infinite supply ofXCH may give them an impetus to
have much of that during theirperiod where they have a loan on
it needing to be executed.
So they see, 40 probably is aincredibly attractive price
point.
Do they run out of it?
Does Chia need more money.
Do they have to go back to themarket maker during whatever
(10:58):
next period of loans they have?
That's all really goodquestions, but I don't think
it's likely that Chia, thecompany, themselves, has said we
need to keep the price here.
As a matter of fact, I thinkthat's incredibly unlikely for
them to have done.
But the market maker just beinga market maker, they're going
to be in it for them and they'regoing to maximize their revenue
(11:18):
as best as they can.
Chia the company, of coursewould, in my opinion, have
serious problems if they weresaying you're going to
artificially keep the price hereof XCH, leading into an IPO,
because that that XCH is anasset on Chia's balance sheet.
So that would kind of be thatwould be some manipulation.
I can't think that that wouldbe good.
So I think that's probably thebiggest thing that we're seeing
(11:41):
right now impacting the price ofChia.
That's why, if the market makerwas not here today, I do not
think that we would see theprice of Chia be going lower.
I think that the sell pressurewould actually be significantly
different and we would see theprice of Chia be significantly
higher.
Next thing that I think is themost important mover of the
price of Chia, the incrediblyfully featured L1 they have
(12:03):
brought about.
That is being used for thingslike the climate action data
trust and the tracking andinterchanging of credits on the
carbon markets.
These are real world utility.
This is real world utility.
This is one of the biggestexamples of real world utility
in all of crypto.
This is not JPEG monkeys.
(12:25):
This is real dollars in centsflowing between businesses
because of a reliable,trustworthy, underlying,
auditable public blockchain thatgovernments have agreed to use.
That's not common at all to havethose kind of confluences
happen with cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency is great atmaking some weird fringe stuff
(12:46):
happen.
Sometimes.
They're really good atinnovating with some really cool
stuff, but this kind of buy inthat we're seeing with the
climate action data trust, withChia as the foundational
blockchain powering, it issomething that definitely
deserves recognition as not justa huge pin in the hat, but, as
more and more people realize,this is a company that's
(13:06):
delivering.
That will make them, in myopinion, much more ready to
onboard themselves if they havethe same needs for a public,
verifiable, trusted and evenpotentially private but yet
public option for a company.
So that could be banks.
(13:27):
We've actually heard Jean talkabout banks, autos, auto lending
video games.
These have all come up in thepast as potentials and I think
they're all really exciting andespecially if we can see those
bigger names come into Chia,that's probably the best thing
that we would actually be ableto do to actually increase not
just the awareness of Chia butalso the price of XCH, as more
(13:49):
people would want to speculate.
However, there's challengesthere.
We're not yet to the SWAT,we're still just looking at
what's moving the price.
This is going to be a bit of along video.
Drop your comments below andlet me know what you guys are
thinking about.
All of this also so persona ofthe characters behind Chia, I
think, does not still to thisday play a small part in
(14:09):
actually Chia and its popularityand its success.
I think you see names like BramCohen, gene Hoffman, richard
Kiss, and you think to yourselfthese people actually know what
they're doing, they have hugeproven records of what they're
doing and they're able toexecute really well.
And so, especially when youlook at BitTorrent and Bram
Cohen, that supersedes so muchand he has changed the world in
(14:34):
the past.
When you look at eMusic and PGPand Gene Hoffman has changed
the world they're trying,admittedly, to change the world
again with cryptocurrency, foryou know really good and really
interesting reasons and usecases, but if they onboard and
they make it, it is a cross theboard going to be a credibility
(14:56):
pin in the hat for allcryptocurrencies out there.
Everybody should be behind Chiabecause if you're not, you're
looking at a, you're looking ata scenario where it's hard for
any company to ever be viableand that is not ideal for crypto
companies.
So hopefully everybody outthere while they may not
(15:17):
actually or they may have acompeting product or competing
L1, hopefully they can see thatthe success of Chia could tie
into their future success andcertainly the market viability
of cryptocurrency in general andname recognition of
cryptocurrency not havingnegative connotations that are
easily assignable by senators.
So probably the two things thatare smallest impacting it in my
(15:40):
opinion, are speculators andbig caps looking for
opportunities in anticipation ofbull market run up.
That probably is some peopleout there a little bit risky to
be doing that in my opinion, butcertainly I'm sure there's
people out there looking at that.
And Chia right now not in thehundreds but not in the 200,
still hanging around the mid 150range and also probably the
another thing that is actuallystabilizing and also really
(16:05):
smoothing out the curve effectsthat you might see else wise is
the pairing that is, just XCHBTCpairs that are out there on
various exchanges that they havea vested interest in making
sure there's some pricestability, so they could be.
I mean, this is going to betalked about later.
Those exchanges are notincredibly well known right now.
They could be manipulating.
(16:25):
They are not subjectnecessarily all of them to US
regulations.
So there's a lot of things thatcould be happening right now
and that is actually going to besomething that is critical that
we're going to talk about.
So I hope you've enjoyed usgiving a Chia price prediction
for 2024.
And that also talked about whatI think are some of the things
moving the price of Chia rightnow.
(16:46):
So let's move on to the nextpart, which is our SWOT analysis
, and if you're not somebody whohas done these before, that's
strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats.
Now when I say you know,weaknesses and threats, a lot of
people are like those are thesame thing.
So let me phrase this like thisWeaknesses already exist,
(17:08):
inherent in the company.
They are a owned deficit, ifyou would, and threats are an
externality that could at somepoint happen.
So those are the differencesthat you have there, and so
let's talk really quick aboutthe Chia strengths.
So we're going to start theSWOT with the S, and that is
Chia strengths, and one of thoseis that they have already done
(17:29):
tremendous foundational work onan incredibly security first L1
product.
That is huge.
You have Graham Cohen, themastermind, essentially behind
most of what has happened here,and the team that has executed
the actual deliverables has done, admittedly, an incredible job
up to this point of creatingfrom the ground up, which is
(17:52):
very weird for crypto, becauseusually it's like a fork of a
dog, of a something, but this isincredibly different because
this is ground up new creation.
Those are innovative products.
That's another huge reason I amvery interested in Chia is the
fact that it has been built fromthe ground up, with different
approaches, and that makes a lotof the deficiencies that we've
(18:16):
seen in things like Bitcoin andEthereum be easily addressed by
Chia, because they came laterand they got to look at the
mistakes and the problems and,when they were developing, take
those into account.
Next, we have to serve.
We have to admit they surviveda liquidity crunch in October.
That was, in my estimation,something that could have ended
the company.
(18:36):
I actually was incrediblyconcerned that it could have
ended the company.
I had talked about prices thatwere incredibly low because I
thought to myself, if Chiaactually does go away here, the
price of Chia will take atremendous hit, and I just
decided that it was better to bea pessimist in that stance
because bear marketsurvivability was not guaranteed
(18:57):
.
But definitely we're looking ata point now where they have
proven out that they can comeback and they can deliver and
they are viable.
They're not going away.
They survived a liquiditycrunch Huge strength.
Next, there's a massive uptakeof Chia happening in the Asia
Pacific region and this isinteresting and also challenging
(19:19):
and also hard to understand andput a finger on, because the
cultural differences aresignificant and I do hope to
talk to Jack from Chia in Chinaat some point in the near future
to get his opinions aboutspecifically the Asia Pacific
region impacts that we're seeingon Chia, because there's a lot
of interest and we're going toactually talk about one of those
(19:39):
not in the strength categorycoming up here shortly.
Another is Tangem.
Well, it's not your typicaltreasure.
It is actually possibly nottainted like a lot of these
other hardware wallets are, sothey do have a secure
implementation.
It does look like a fairlydecent solution.
So that is actually a securitywin and a strength for Chia.
(20:02):
Asic Time Loads the cost scalefunctionality of being able to
engineer an ASIC that is fasterthan Chia's ASICs is
ridiculously expensive, so itbecomes incredibly unlikely that
somebody would want to do thatand as a result of not wanting
to do that, you've got yourselfa pretty secure piece of
(20:23):
hardware, and that secure pieceof hardware was talked about by
Brandt and he did an AMA withsome Chia engineers, so you
should definitely check that out.
Links to all this stuff in thedescription below.
But the ASIC Time Lord AMA wasrecent and it is a fast piece of
hardware.
It increased the net securityof the Chia blockchain quite a
bit as well by having that.
(20:44):
So really that is another checkmark in the Chia strengths
category.
Next, let's move on to theactual security budget and get a
little bit more finite in whatwe're talking about when we're
talking about the security ofthe Chia blockchain.
So the Chia blockchain hastremendous net space right now
that we're going to talk aboutan interesting outlier, but 30
(21:07):
exibytes essentially is atremendous amount of net space
to have.
That is a lot of spinning harddrives.
I mean, that is a lot, a lot ofspinning hard drives.
That is a freaky amount ofspinning hard drives, and so
that is a security mechanismthat is tenuous, and we have
people talking about furtherconsensus changes jumping in,
(21:29):
you know, accelerating timelines.
These are things that I thinkneed wider audience talking
about it and I'm talking aboutwe have hundreds of thousands of
farmers, and for a couple ofvocal people to ever make an
impact on Chia and the consensusis a danger.
We need to actually make surethat the masses of people are
(21:50):
better heard.
That's actually not necessarilygoing to be in the strengths
we're going to talk about thatone here coming up in just the
next, the next segment, but wedo have currently massive net
net space security budget as aresult of how many hard drives
are out there and the fact thatwe have not yet hit a having
cycle which is coming up, andthat having cycle is also going
(22:12):
to be something that we'retalking about, but that having
cycle could have impactsdepending upon workloads for
certain folks.
That could be interesting.
It is certainly somethinginteresting to watch.
Another check this one's huge isdata layer.
Data layer holds so manypossibilities for verifiable
futures for Chia, and when I sayverifiable futures, things that
(22:36):
we may not have even thoughtabout yet, products we may not
have even thought about thatcould be verifiable.
Certainly, some of them havebeen talked about.
As far as the data andverifiable data that is owned by
you as an individual and yourincentivization, that could
actually be tied directly intosomething like the Chia
blockchain for an authenticityback end that could be used by
(22:57):
all sorts of different people,because this really does fit
into a blockchain use case ofneeding publicly auditable,
mutually agreed upon, that didhappen.
That data does exist.
This is the person at this timethat owned it, information
exchanges, so that is one of thethings.
That data layer underlyingtechnology is still wildly,
(23:19):
wildly important, and I thinkwe're going to see that be some
of the first huge products thatthe community is able to develop
out there as well Checkmark,and in a world where timing
matters, let's just say this oneis just happenstance, but
certainly I'm going to put it inthe strengths, because current
day is current day and where wesee Chia right now heading into
(23:40):
2024, it is a, in my opinion,positive market experience for
most cryptos out there headinginto a bull run.
It does indeed look like thereprobably will be a bull run in
2024.
Again, not financial advice.
Don't go make decisionsfinancially based upon what I
said, but let me know in thecomments below if you agree or
(24:01):
disagree with me.
I think it could be a bullmarket and if it is a bull
market, they're in the rightplace.
Hey, they survived, they madeit to here.
Reap those rewards.
Now let's move on to weaknesses.
So this one is, I would say,interesting.
Hopefully I can talk aboutthings that you might not have
(24:21):
heard of, but if you haveweaknesses of Chia, drop them
down below right now, before westart, and let's get started.
So on to the weaknesses side ofthis equation.
So some of the things that Ithink just jump out really off
the bat at me as really largeweaknesses are how difficult it
(24:46):
is for new developers to getinto Chia, and we don't see
massive flights of developersinto Chia.
That's going to be a hard oneto crack.
To be honest with you, chia isnot easy and, as a result of
that, chia education andoutreach is challenging.
Acknowledging that and findingways to remediate that or to
even create libraries on top ofthat.
(25:07):
Not sure what the status of theSDK is, but definitely
something that I am interestedin.
But the grants program wasoriginally envisioned as
something that would be actuallyable to help developer outreach
.
We didn't see that many grantrecipients that turned into
super duper successful.
We do have some not to saythere's not any but many of them
(25:29):
have floundered, and so how thegrants program went down
actually became a center of alot of controversy at one point
for Chia.
That was not a benefit to Chiaat all.
So it's good that they'retaking some time to reevaluate
their grants program right nowand looking at what they're
going to do as they move intothe next iteration of the grants
program, because I think thatties in very strongly to the
(25:52):
Chia list outreach and educationthat they're probably going to
need to do if they want peopleto onboard that are capable of
developing in their native smartcontract language, a crucial
milestone for a smart contractbased L1 cryptocurrency.
And the number two thing iscertainly something that I am
sure everybody on this channelwould has told me at some point
(26:14):
in time in the comments orsomething like that Major
exchange support for Chia.
We don't see Chia readilyaccessible on the mainstream
major as an XCH on themainstream major exchanges today
.
That makes onboarding newpeople that are interested in
buying Chia hard.
That is a form of pricesuppression as a result of that.
Potentially it also could limitpeople from speculating.
(26:37):
But definitely the ability toonboard into Chia as somebody
who's interested incryptocurrency is something that
is hard to do if you'reespecially a US based person.
That has to change.
It made sense when the paradigmwas that they didn't want to
touch any of the pre farm.
It made a lot of sense to me.
(26:57):
That, however, has beenbroached.
So providing liquidity ifneeded at some point to
exchanges in the ability to haveXCH be significantly more
fungible does make a lot ofsense to me at this point.
Let me know what you thinkabout that in the comments below
.
The next thing is the walletdoes have problems.
The wallet can get into stateswhere it's just certain things
(27:21):
don't work out too well.
I have a wallet that's likethat.
Granted, I've done about everystupid thing possible in that
demonstration wallet and it hasbeen a long lived wallet but
there are NFTs that I can't moveout right now.
Even with 0.1 XCH as a fee justdoesn't work.
So there is something wrongfundamentally with that.
(27:41):
Now, I was able to move the XCHout of it and I was able to
move the cats out of it.
However, there's a potentialthat that actually ties into the
next issue here, and that isthe mem pool.
There does appear to besomething I don't know what not
necessarily working wonderfullyin the mem pool at current, and
whether or not that is somethingthat gets overhauled is
(28:02):
interesting to me.
So I think there's some roomfor improvement as far as that.
Whether we see the block spaceincrease doesn't necessarily
make a big difference.
We see a dust storm of XCH, asright now, which is inscriptions
on Chia.
The client is actually able tooperate.
If you have a non messed upclient, perfectly fine.
(28:23):
However, if you have a messedup client, I can't even tell you
if that's what is the matterwith my current wallet, but
that's, of course, a very firsthand recollection of what's
going on.
I talked to Josh about this andhe said there was probably some
coin pairs that I created anoffer with at some point in time
and like, just didn't cancel itor spend it out.
I tried sending all the XCH tomyself again to clear everything
(28:46):
that didn't work out.
So, yeah, there's potentially apair combo or something like
that that could be stuck outthere still and that could be
harming my ability to movethings out of the mem pool, and
that is not necessarily a greatthing.
I don't know if that'stechnically what's going on, but
something is for sure going onwith that wallet.
Next, onboarding high value likevalue add crypto compatriarch
(29:12):
companies.
This is a weakness in myopinion, because we don't see
Chia doing this and we see a lotof other cryptocurrency
companies out there activelysoliciting getting working in
partnership with othercryptocurrency companies and
that does lead to exposure ofthat crypto one to crypto two
(29:33):
kind of audience thing thatgrows the base of people
interested developers, investors, producers, speculators,
everybody and I think that's agood thing.
So I would hope to see thathappen a little bit more in 2024
.
Certainly, there is a lot ofanimosity almost, or hostility
that seems to be prevalent incrypto Twitter, and I would urge
the team to ignore cryptoTwitter.
(29:55):
Crypto Twitter doesn't evenmatter.
Let's be honest.
Crypto Twitter really doesn'tmatter.
You're not.
You're the only thing itmatters for are mainly like the
junkest class assets out there.
So, yeah, that's that's onething I hope to see in the near
future.
Another weakness is there isheadcount, that is, people that
(30:15):
were working specifically on thechia client on the front end of
it.
I don't think we're going tosee the cadence of releases that
we had seen in the past At somepoint.
Like you have a featurecomplete, it just needs security
product, and like that shouldbe at some point in time.
Here the client itself has beendeveloped by chia and like this
(30:37):
is a chicken and egg thing,like what.
This isn't in clear cut reallyweakness, but it is like it kind
of seems like it.
We don't have third partyclient developers that are
working on desktop clients forchia.
There's not separateimplementations for the most
part, aside from Mac and Maris,which is Docker based and not.
I don't think that's easier formost people to get into, and
(30:58):
I'm unaware of other clientbased implementations for the
desktop that are capable of allthe feature set cats and FTS,
everything like the chiareference client is.
So how the chia referenceclient evolves and the amount of
effort that's been put into itand what effort gets put into it
next, I think is somethingthat's very interesting to look
at.
I think everybody should bethinking about that question
(31:21):
Next.
This one was, of course, goingto come up Nakamoto coefficient
and we see that droppingprecipitously due to no SSD.
And no SSD is not a typicalchia pool.
They are the centralized chiapool, so you're binding your
work essentially to their keyset and you're producing the
work for them with your storageand getting rewarded for it.
(31:43):
And they do have.
Let me not let me not justglance over this.
They have the best compressiontechnology out there.
They have an incredibly simpleclient.
It's a compelling case forsomebody to use them, but at the
same time, that is impactingthe Nakamoto coefficient of chia
.
I think that impacts chia'sability to talk about themselves
(32:05):
as the most decentralizedblockchain without the potential
for pushback from knowledgeablepotential customers on that.
That doesn't help them bring onnew clients potentially,
because these are people thatare going to be validating what
is said to them, not just youknow some small business.
This is you.
Typically, the people that chia, to my knowledge, has been
(32:26):
talking to are very largeentities, organizations, and
independent verification isgoing to be something that they
do.
So definitely, no SSD is aweakness, but at the same time,
there is a chance that they'regoing to adopt a protocol change
for their harvester, so that itmay not, you may end up forming
(32:48):
the blocks yourself, so thatwould be ideal if we see that
happen.
The next thing is we see certainpersonalities in chia
frequently, but we don't knowthat much about the company
itself outside of that.
That leads to an opaqueness, Ithink, for the community that is
not something talked about, notsomething that most companies
(33:10):
actually talk about.
Sometimes they might call itculture or something like that.
You might have a transparencyreport or they might put
together some sort of forwardlooking statement on this is how
we are doing things.
That kind of insight doesn'tseem to exist for chia, and so
that would be one thing thatwould be interesting to see,
because you don't have a lot of.
I mean, you know Jean, you knowBram, you know the faces out
(33:31):
there that you see and what theysay and stuff like that, but
you don't know very many otherpeople that are at chia, and so
what their contributions are issomething that I feel like it
would be very beneficial tolearn more about, because it
sounds like a lot of thesepeople actually do wildly
interesting things.
We've got a new puzzle out forchia, which puzzles are kind of
the built in smart contractsthat are capabilities of the
(33:54):
chia blockchain by somebody thatI never heard of before.
So I think there's a lot ofunder the hood people that are
brilliant, working on things andgetting their horns tooted from
something like marketing, whichis the next weakness that she
has, and that is because wedon't have a ton of marketing
(34:14):
and, honestly, if they'respending money and Jean has said
this many times they'respending money on acquiring new
customers.
That makes a lot of sense.
However, at the same time,there's a public perception of
independent research that anycompany is going to do, and so
having some sort of brandbuilding, brand recognition,
outside of that is somethingthat I think could be beneficial
(34:35):
.
It's my take on it.
You guys, let me know what youthink the biggest weakness that
you see, independent of whatI've said, is with chia.
Definitely, of course, no majorexchanges has got to be like
near the top of that.
That is, that's a showstopperfor so many people that I've
talked to that are interested inchia, and then they're like,
where can I get it?
And you're like, let's get aVPN installed.
(34:58):
And it's like, no, they're notgoing to do that.
And they actually put you in asus category immediately when
you suggest that.
So that is hard and cryptocom'sapp is functional and you can
buy chia, but it is also not avery favorable experience for
most people out there.
So that is it's hard sell.
Most people that have cryptocomare like I'm in it for, like
(35:20):
the, the card and the rewards.
They're not in it for the userexperience of the app, because
that is actually a horribleapplication to use on your
mobile device.
So, yeah, those are theweaknesses.
Now this is exciting.
This part here is talking aboutthe opportunities that could be
present out there for Chiaspecifically that I see, and
(35:42):
take a moment, go down in thecomments, if you haven't yet,
and tell me what you think theopportunities Chia should be
jumping at or that you see are,and let's see if we talk about
them here.
The first one this is big theETH Chia Bridge.
I so this is where I wastalking about the outreach with
other crypto cryptocurrencycompanies and how that doesn't
(36:03):
necessarily happen that much inChia or at all in Chia, for what
I can typically see, we couldsee and you see this huge in
Ethereum ecosystem Companiesplaying with each other, working
on their own tech.
Having that ETH Chia Bridgecould be a really easy way for
people to get into Chia and alsodo whatever they wanted in Chia
and exit back out.
(36:24):
So same goes for people withtheir XCH that I want to play
around in the ETH ecosystem, sothose two could be really good
cross pollinators.
I see that as being a majoropportunity for Chia.
Of course, I've talked aboutthis as a weakness, but let me
also say it's an opportunity.
The marketing, chia's marketingis a blank slate pretty much at
(36:44):
this point.
There's individual personapersonalities, but there's no
corporate, identifiable brandpersonality that Chia has, and
so the definition of that in apublic manner is something that
I think would be reallyinteresting to see Chia, the
company, undertake in 2024.
And I think it could havereally big impacts for them as a
company also as well.
(37:06):
Next, being in a position torelieve the market maker of
their market making activitiesat some point could be an
opportunity.
If they have the cash flow thatis and I mean they have a lot
of headcount.
I don't know exactly what it istoday, but it has been very
high in the past and I'm sureit's still pretty high for a
cryptocurrency company.
That amount of cash flow tofund that is not going to be
(37:29):
trivial.
They don't pay their employeesand crypto, which forces them to
go sell it at market rate topay their mortgage and stuff
like that they actually pay themin fiat.
So that's a good, admirablething to do, but definitely the
ability to say market maker,thank you for getting us through
that time.
We don't need to entail yourservices.
We're back to having themarkets themselves show us what
(37:53):
the value of Chia is and otherentities at that point would
start taking on market makerpositions.
Is my, my strong guess that ifthere was accessibility through
other major exchanges, thatwould be something that would be
a super bullish indicator to me, because it would show that
financially, the stability ofthe company has returned to
where they were at.
Whether or not they're thatcash flow positive, we don't
(38:16):
know.
They're a private company.
You could ask them on Twitterhow much money they're making.
They would probably decline totell you, and they probably
would have to decline to tellyou because if they are going
for an IPO, that would probablybe skewed towards manipulation
of a potential IPO listing.
So it makes sense for them notto talk about that but at the
same time, if there ever is a,let me say this as an
(38:37):
opportunity.
If there ever is, at some pointin time, a pivot from an IPO, I
hope Chia jumps on that as anopportunity to make the best
damned crypto pure company outthere that could ever be,
because that really is somethingthat would be remarkably viable
.
Chia's technology is firstclass.
(38:59):
That is an opportunity.
If that ever turns out like theIPO is not going to happen,
there is a way to spin that intolike the best damn crypto
company that is a pure cryptocompany out there.
Onboarding more payingcustomers into virtual private
blockchain.
Virtual private blockchain is avery hot topic and it is great
for industries that don't wantto associate with crypto but yet
(39:22):
want the securities that youcan get with crypto.
As far as multinationaltransactions, typically is what
I've seen Chia hopefully canonboard some people into their
virtual private blockchainoffering.
And, yeah, another opportunityis just that that redefining of
the company and who they arepublicly.
(39:43):
I say that that's important tome because I think it's the
perception and it's yet to becrafted, and so looking for that
to happen at one point would bereally something I think could
be world class for Chia,especially because they are so
unique where they're at.
They're so unique how they'vebeen created.
They're so unique thechallenging set of problems that
(40:04):
they address.
All right, this last one is thedangerous one.
Okay, these are the unknownsout there, these are the threats
.
These are not necessarilythings that Chia has going on
deficiencies currently, oranything like that.
These are externalities thatcould be possibilities, but
things that you would want tohave on your radar Regulatory
(40:25):
lines.
I am not a lawyer, I'm notgoing to pretend to be a lawyer,
but Is 100% of the selling ofsecurities A?
Okay?
I would imagine, based uponother things I've read about
other rulings and regards toripple that they're probably
okay.
However, at the same time, Idon't know, does that imperil an
IPO?
I don't know.
So, like any regulatory lineslike those are not just in
(40:51):
regard to the sale of a portionof the pre farm.
Those are also in regards toother things that may or may not
exist out there in theregulatory ecosystem, which is
fast evolving towards the future.
It's evolving towards heavyhanded regulations on the crypto
industry, which is not probably, in my opinion, what we want to
see happen.
I've said it for a while and Ithink a lot of people have come
(41:11):
over to my side over the pastyear, seeing some of the scary
propositions that have been putout there, that if they were to
be, oh my God, they would be bad.
So that gets on to the next one.
Why do regulations?
In general, the ability ofcrypto as an entity is actually
not in an existential crisis.
Bitcoin is not in anexistential crisis.
(41:33):
Everything else has some levelof scrutiny on it and there is
definitely a push in the UnitedStates for that, and maybe
rightly so.
The United States loses itsmantra of being a tech leader in
this field because if we arestupid enough to regulate it, we
deserve to lose it.
In my opinion, hostile bankingenvironments for non-BTC players
(41:53):
could be a thing if and whenETFs are a thing.
So preferential treatmenttowards commodity BTC might be a
thing that certain banks lookat and try to delineate or draw
lines between the rest ofeverything out there and Bitcoin
, and it would actually prop uptheir bags to do that.
(42:14):
So that's another.
It'll probably manifest inlobbyists and regulations also,
but that is another thing on thehorizon that the entire
ecosystem should be looking outfor.
Another thing in the broadercrypto ecosystem, if we are
heading into a bull market, theflight of talent could be
something that is significantand real and there could be.
(42:38):
You know, it could be hard tomaintain talent if, especially
as a company that has developeda lot of core technologies
already, like Chia has if theycould look at it and say, hey,
in the next year or two, there'sa chance that I'm going to be
not needed my position becausethe work I'm doing isn't being,
(43:00):
you know, it's coming to a closein a year or two.
They could start looking nowfor other places.
That could happen in any cryptocompany at any time.
But the talent that is actuallycapable of doing a good job
writing and securing blockchaintechnology it is a small talent
base, so that is a, I think, bigthreat to many companies out
there.
I hope that the talent thatChia has, which is not
(43:22):
insignificant, is able to beretained, and sometimes that
comes at a cost.
So you know that isn'tnecessarily easy for satisfying
some of the other things that wetalked about.
This isn't trying to come upwith perfect.
This is just talking about allof it, and that's really what a
SWAT analysis does is.
It puts it all out there foreverybody to talk about and make
sure you sound off in thecomments below with what you
think could be on deck.
Next, this one is alwayslooming and it's the potential
(43:47):
unknown attack vectors that havenot been discovered through
audits or just are.
They were not just, they couldbe newly founded at any point in
time from some piece ofdevelopment work.
So that's a massive, neverending, expensive, hard to
mitigate concern that iseverywhere and you never know
(44:09):
what's going to happen untilthat bad thing happens.
It seems like in cryptocurrency, oh wow, that happens a lot.
So, especially around the ETHChia Bridge, that's that's a
place where you got to keep youreyes, because that is probably
the biggest risk that would beout there and, of course,
steering public sentiment in anegative news fashion towards
(44:29):
Chia wouldn't be good instead ofsteering it in a positive news
fashion towards you and I think,also the overall.
Every crypto company companyout there should be looking at
their public facing, messaginghow they can appear to be not
the problems that have haveplagued cryptocurrency, and Chia
(44:53):
really stands out as notactually being one of those
problem players.
But definitely there is muchroom for even growing and
advancing that messaging andthat helps further all crypto
companies out there in theirpotential to not be viewed as
just the next rug.
So those are the biggestthreats that I see there could
(45:15):
be for other cryptos regulatorycapture, issues around power
utilization.
The identification of certainactivities is fairly easy to do,
however, something as small asa Chia farm if you went really
small with a Chia farm and youjust had it BSSD's should be
something that everybody coulddo under the wire and not have a
(45:37):
concern about that, butcertainly it is something that
we need to think about.
So, no SSD.
I'm not going to put this inthe threats, but just to talk
about it.
No SSD I heard three XE bitefarmer is a thing.
They have a three XE bitefarmer.
That is a huge farm and so thatis right there.
(46:00):
I don't know where to classifythat.
Honestly, we'll probably justhave a whole like let's talk
about no SSD thing at some pointin the future.
Everybody, I hope you've enjoyedthis forward looking assessment
of where I think things couldbe going.
And remember, none of this isfinancial advice.
Do your own due diligence andbe very wary of anybody that's
trying to sell you anything incryptocurrency that is like a
(46:24):
product of cryptocurrency, likethat is.
There's a lot of that.
I think that we're getting outof the worst of it Because
people are getting awareness ofit, but then it's like if we're
starting another bull cycle,there will be another new crop
of people that are brand new andthey'll be like I'm going to
get into everything and theywill get absolutely wrecked.
So also spread the word topeople to be cautious of what
(46:47):
they get into, because there's alot of potential for economic
harm and cryptocurrency and mostpeople that just jump into
stuff without doing a lot ofindependent research are setting
themselves up for somedisasters Everybody.
I hope you have enjoyed this,and so, if you're new to Chia
and you're interested in gettingfarming, check out one of the
two guides that I've releasedrecently the Chia 2.0 GPU
(47:09):
plotting and farming 2023ultimate guide.
If you are a official Chia user, like that'll be a specific
type of compression that is notas big as the Giga horse
platform, which is what Icurrently utilize and am
replotting myself right now tosee 19s, and you can find that
guide in the how to farm Chiaand GPU plot with Giga horse 2.0
(47:32):
for Windows hard drive miningguide, and those are both in the
description below, as well ascheck the rest of the videos in
this channel.
We have a wealth of informationon Chia and definitely take
some time and check it out.
Don't forget there's cheatsheets on digital spaceportcom.
Everybody have a great one andI will check you guys out next
time.
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