Episode Transcript
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Trade war with China - Pr (00:36):
China
just made some major waves when
it comes to precious metals, andit's going to impact the entire
global economy.
Whether you live in the us,whether you live in Canada, or
even somewhere in Latin Americalike we do.
This is really, really global,guys.
This is going to affect you nomatter what, and it might not be
in a very good way.
(00:58):
We're gonna talk in a minuteabout exactly what all of this
means.
How China's fighting backagainst the US' trade tariffs
and other trade wars that the USis doing against China and what
it actually means, especiallyfor US entrepreneurs and
business owners, either in theStates or.
(01:18):
Abroad.
I'm Justin Keltner and on thischannel Entrepreneur, expat.
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So what is it that happenedrecently with Beijing's policy
and more importantly, why we'vebeen studying a lot of this?
We've been following it veryclosely because of course, at
(02:21):
least according to theadministration in the US, they
consider China a little bit ofan enemy in these trade wars.
I don't think China's reallymuch of an enemy.
I think that everybody is tryingto compete on a level playing
field, and every country istrying to do its best.
Just like we have this Americafirst mentality, which makes
sense at a lot of levels.
China has its China first, uh,mentality and perspective.
(02:45):
So it's important to realizethat everybody's just kind of
trying to do what's best forthat country now, what the
newest development from Beijingwas.
Is that they are now starting tocontrol the export of precious
metals that came from China.
But this is not just forproducts that came from China.
(03:06):
So it's not just for goods thatwere actually manufactured in
China, including a lot ofconsumer electronics that we
use.
In fact, I look around here,I've got an iPhone, I've got
another iPhone that we'rerecording with.
I've got lights that are Chinesebranded.
I've got a.
Uh, screen in front of meconnected to my Sony camera.
It's also probably made inChina.
That's got a weird, uh, likeChinglish brand.
(03:28):
It's a feel world brand screen,you know, a little HDMI screen.
Obviously that's made in China.
Tripods made in China.
This fan here that I bought inMexico, made in China.
Uh, this mug, let's see,designed in California, made in,
you guessed it, China.
So.
Uh, China.
(03:50):
I mean the, the, the funny thingis, and this was a, uh,
something that, that I sawfloating around the interwebs
recently is Trump says, Hey, wehave the cards.
And then China says somethinglike, well, yeah, but we
manufactured the cards.
But it's getting worse guys,because in this recent
development, not only are theycontrolling the export of
individual items that wereactually made in China, but
(04:10):
they're also controllinganything made in any country
that includes any preciousmetals that were.
Extracted or processed in China.
So this is a really big deal.
What this means is that if a, ifan object, if an item is
manufactured, even in Taiwan,even in Singapore, even in South
(04:32):
Korea, they're not allowingthose companies in those
different countries outside ofChina to export those items
unless they get Chinesepermission.
First, so naturally, and why,you know, why does this happen?
Right.
Naturally, China is really justtrying to expand its export
controls in response toeverything that we're doing.
(04:55):
So the, the US now and itsallies are scrambling to reduce
dependence because we have somany different things that
depend on Chinese goods, and ofcourse Chinese precious metals
because China controls a reallybig percentage of the
processing.
Capacity of those preciousmetals.
So yes, they have preciousmetals, and we have precious
(05:15):
metals in, in the US and, andwith allies as well.
But China has a very bigmonopoly there on, uh, the
processing of those preciousmetals.
So in addition to that, there'snew port fees by China, US
shipping fees.
Are now being disrupted andtrade flows are being disrupted,
costs are going higher, and howdoes it make sense?
(05:37):
Like the whole point of Trump'stariffs was, I guess, to bring
costs eventually down.
For Americans, and it seems likethat's not quite working.
So why does this actually matterfor the US and why specifically
does it matter for you?
Well, the US sees China's exportcontrols and resource leverage
(05:58):
as economic coercion, and it'sstepping up manufacturing.
It's stepping up high tech andsupply chain reshoring efforts.
Of course that includesnearshoring to places like
Mexico, where where we currentlylive, although we're not sure if
we're gonna be here forever.
Probably not, but we'recurrently in Mexico and we see
exactly what's going on.
There's so many jobs beingcreated down here in Mexico
(06:18):
because the US is trying to moveaway from China.
And in addition to that, the USjust signed an$8.5 billion deal
with Australia to develop therare earth supply chains outside
of China.
But like I said before.
China has so much power in termsof the processing of those rare
earth metals and so much of ourstuff.
(06:40):
And it's not just electronicstoo, guys.
And it's not just cheap homegoods.
Uh, our medicine depends onChina.
A good portion of the ibuprofen,for example, that we take in the
US manufactured in China, weimport a ton of food from China
as well as from other countries.
And the US is essentiallyexpecting a fair deal with
China, but.
(07:02):
They're saying that they aregonna add more tariffs to China.
Like none of it really makessense, uh, because they're kind
of negotiating with tactics thatmight have worked 20 or 30 or 50
years ago when we were still ina more or less unipolar world.
Now we're so multipolar that it,it doesn't really matter because
(07:23):
China has already reduced, itsits dependency on us and on our
customer base.
I'll give you another examplejust kind of off the cuff,
because we see this happening.
We run a lot of infrastructureworldwide for servers.
We're starting to get intoinfrastructure for AI as well
because we use that so much inour business.
So we're actually taking backsome of that control and
(07:44):
bringing it, uh, on premisesessentially to some of our data
centers, to some of our own.
Uh, locations, including evenhere near Guadalajara, where,
where we have servers and we'reexperimenting with new AI
technologies and things likethat.
So I know a lot about the GPUmarket and how things are going
there.
Well, recently, and, uh, the,the CEO of Nvidia actually spoke
(08:04):
about this not too long ago.
Uh, he said that before they hadsomething like 95% of the
Chinese market for GPUs that'sselling their GPUs.
That were made by a US companyin some cases, obviously made in
China as well, but bringingprofit to a US company, creating
us jobs, including engineeringjobs and so many other things.
(08:25):
They were selling into theChinese market.
Then Trump said, well, you can'tdo that anymore.
We're gonna, we're gonna banexports of certain things to
China.
And in just the last coupleyears here now, China is
creating their own technologythey already have and most of
the Chinese market.
Is relying on companies likeHuawei that's manufacturing,
(08:45):
GPUs and other, other businessesthat are local there to China,
so it's not hurting Chinaanywhere near as much as it's
actually hurting US companies.
Now let's talk about what thismight mean specifically for you
as an entrepreneur.
Expat.
So.
If you rely on imports fromChina, whether that's at a big
scale, like you're actuallyimporting and reselling, or even
(09:05):
at a small scale like you'rebuying hardware, electronics,
and components, and of courseeven more so if you're selling
to the US or global markets,costs are going up.
Lead times are gonna stretchpotentially a lot, and then
disruption risk to your supplychain goes up a lot.
Now if you do what a lot ofpeople are doing and set up
(09:26):
supply chain or productionplants in Mexico or other parts
of Latin America with Chinesegoods, with Chinese imports, you
may face secondary effectsincluding container shipping,
delays, tariffs, sourcingchallenges, and whatnot.
Because even if you're notdirectly subject to.
What China is gonna be doingnow, more and more of which is
putting tariffs back on the us.
(09:47):
You are now still going to besubject to all of the other
macroeconomic changes that arehappening here, the global
supply chain changes that arehappening here as a result of
the policies that are comingabout because this is affecting
companies globally.
So even if you maybe rely on a,a US company or a US ally like
(10:09):
South Korea.
And China's like, you know what?
We don't want to send productsto this particular company in
Mexico because they're mainlybased in the us.
There's so many little nuanceshere that make it very difficult
to actually avoid some of theeffects of this.
Now of course I'm gonna take alittle play on Uncle Ben's.
With great power comes greatresponsibility, with great, uh,
(10:33):
opportunity, right?
With great risk comes a lot ofopportunity as well.
And with, with great, uh,turmoil comes a lot of
opportunity.
So you may be able to repositionyour business.
To actually benefit.
That might include sourcingalternatives outside China,
marketing to us, companies whoare diversifying away from China
to give them other options.
(10:55):
So that's certainly an idea,whether that's countries like
India, countries like Vietnam,there's definitely a lot of
manufacturing even moving tocountries in Africa, and of
course Mexico here as well.
There's a ton of near shoring,so there's a lot of
opportunities here.
I'm just gonna say it though,like I, I think it's, it's just
a really bad idea.
These trade wars are a reallybad idea.
(11:16):
We're playing with kindergarteneconomics here, essentially.
And they don't apply to theworld that we have today.
Now we're gonna talk a littlebit about how entrepreneurs
abroad should thinkstrategically.
So some actionable tips for thatinclude mapping your supply
chain if you're running abusiness, especially that's an
e-commerce business, or abusiness that's drop shipping or
(11:38):
manufacturing or anything likethat.
Because we do work with peoplein the US and Canada and all
throughout the world that havefairly large companies.
One of my previous clients isactually the founder of Barefoot
Wines in.
California, and I've hadconversations like this with him
about supply chain issues andsourcing and and and things like
that.
And so it's really important totake a look at inventory or
(12:01):
supply chain.
You wanna identify parts orservices that today are sourced
from China and take a look atsome of the risks there.
So look at the risk of tariffs,of export controls, shipping fee
hikes, and things like that.
And then take a look atalternatives.
So could you perhaps move yoursourcing to Mexico or Latin
America, Southeast Asia, or evenbuild things in house if you
(12:23):
have the capacity to do so?
In the US and of course monitorthe US China policy calendar.
So look at key talks, tariffs,export control announcements,
because all of those thingsreally matter.
As an example, the US tradetalks with China are upcoming
via the Asia Pacific EconomicCooperation or APEC Forum.
(12:44):
So that would be something youmight want to get yourself to
either in person or at the veryleast, have an idea of what's
going on there.
So that you know, hey, this isthe direction things are headed,
and you are flexible enough.
Two, be able to pivot as youneed and then leverage that
diversification story with yourclients and potential investors.
So if you're in Latin Americalike we are now, you've got
(13:06):
supply chain flexibility for UScompanies, and US companies are
now paying more for that type ofsupply chain flexibility,
because when we look back to thepandemic days, the entire global
supply chain was disrupted.
Like that was another riskbecause China's so far away when
you compare it to somewhere likeMexico that has.
A ton of very capable talent,but is much closer to the us.
(13:30):
You obviously save yourself fromissues like what's happening now
with these tariffs and exportcontrols and everything else,
but more importantly, if there'sever some type of global
calamity in the future, you're alot more likely to be able to
get those goods from Mexico thanhaving to bring them all the way
across the globe from China.
Not to mention the cost of laborare going up in China anyway, so
(13:52):
that's another thing thatsometimes people don't take.
Into account.
I wanna highlight that perhapsis the most important part of
this video is that this isn'tjust one little trade scrimmage.
This isn't just one.
Back and forth, and China'sdoing this thing and Trump is
doing this thing.
And he said, she said, andwhatever else.
This is something that's a lotmore symbolic of what's going on
(14:16):
in the world, what's going onwith politics, what's going on
with trade.
And also it's really a canary inthe coal mine for where we're
headed in the future.
And to me, these things arevery, very, very concerning.
Here's why.
Okay.
If our government right now isputting so much on the line for
(14:39):
posturing, if they're doing somuch that's based on, I would
argue, very irrational policies,very irrational sources of of
thought.
And also in a way, I mean it'snot just anti-capitalist because
it's costing us money, it'salso.
(15:00):
What the US has done and beenable to get away with for
generations, which is just kindof bullying other countries into
doing what would suit the USgovernment, but it's not working
anymore.
And so these, these retaliationshere from China are in response
to what the US government isdoing.
And there are things that theymaybe couldn't do before because
(15:22):
economically they couldn'tafford to.
But this is a really big signthat if you're in the us, if you
have a business in the us.
And, and it's not just Trump andhis administration.
I'll, I'll take an example fromwhat was going on with the
Democrats and what Kamala waspromising, which is, Hey, we're
gonna tax you on all of yourunrealized capital gains.
(15:42):
And I think taxes in a big wayare, are not constitutional and
most of them should not exist.
Don't get me started on that.
But unrealized capital gainstax, I mean that would've made
every real estate investor thatwas making any money in the US
probably.
Take their money elsewhere.
And what this is doing is nowany manufacturing company and
(16:03):
even large tech companies likeNvidia Jensen was shaking his
head and he's like, man, what?
What are we, what are we doinghere?
In an effort to bully anothercountry to essentially slow down
their economy, which is what allof these tariffs were supposed
to do with what all of theexport controls that the US
placed on US companies exportingto China were supposed to do.
(16:25):
They all backfired.
Those things are not workinganymore.
And this is a clear example thatnow other countries are fighting
back.
The power and the value of theUS dollar is getting lower and
lower and lower.
The US economy, even thoughthere's a lot of markers that
are being faked or, or hidden orobfuscated in some way are,
(16:49):
they're tanking.
The economy is tanking, thestock market's going up, but
that's not gonna last for long.
Right?
Unemployment's going up.
Stock market is also going up.
Okay.
There's something really.
Weird there because if theeconomy is going down with
employment increasing and foodshortages that we're now seeing
and now programs like SNAP beingcut for people that really need
(17:11):
support, yet we're sendingtrillions of dollars overseas to
wars.
Right?
And then we're trying to playthis like Checkers game where
we're one-upping other countriesand trying to bring them all
down just like the US has donefor decades in Latin America and
so many other countries, so manyother regions of the world.
All these other countries arestarting to play chess.
(17:32):
And so what you're seeing isyou're seeing China play chess.
So I'm gonna tell you right now,we help a lot of high net worth
individuals get out of the us,get out of Canada, move to a
place like Latin America, moveto places like the Middle East,
move to places like EasternEurope and not just live a
better life, but really have avery solid insurance policy for
(17:52):
their future and for theirfamily's future.
So if you've got a milliondollars.
Or or more in net worth.
And you want to get ourpersonalized help.
You want us to help you create aplan to get outta there, or at
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(18:13):
$50,000.
All in, you can have a very,very, very good insurance policy
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Because if you're in yourforties, you're in your fifties,
even sixties, you might be allright.
You might be able to kind ofride this out.
But if you've got kids, you lookat the decisions that this
administration and the decisionsthat previous administrations
(18:35):
have made, they're making lifeworse, not just for people in
the in the middle class, notjust for people in the lower
class, but even, I would say,especially for people that are
high net worth individuals, it'sgetting more and more difficult.
Taxes are going up, restrictionson business are going up,
thoughts are being policed now.
Speech is being policed.
(18:56):
You can see it happening in theUK all the time.
It's coming to the us.
It already is in the us.
People are being pulled outtatheir houses, being pulled outta
their cars.
I'm not gonna get into all thecraziness that's happening with
organizations like ice, butyou've seen it all and it's not
looking great.
And on top of that, it's gonnakeep getting worse and worse.
(19:16):
So if you think, well, it's notgetting that bad yet.
Maybe it's only getting 1% or 2%per year worse.
I would say, what if you look atyour stock portfolio and instead
of going up by seven, eight, 9%a year, it gets 1% worse every
year.
And now play that out, not justinto your life, but more
importantly into your children'slives because they're gonna be
(19:38):
around a lot longer than you andthey want to have a plan B as
well.
And a lot of the, the passportsthat we get, a lot of the
citizenships and residenciesthat we help people obtain, in
fact, all of them, in the caseof a family.
Are also bestowed upon thechildren as well, so you can
secure not just your future, butmore importantly, your entire
(20:00):
family's future.
So I, I'm, I'm speaking from theheart right now.
When I say book a call, it'sentrepreneur expat.com/consult.
Book a call with us, talk to ourteam.
It's completely free.
You can apply.
If you qualify, you'll, you'lldo that free call with myself or
my team.
And if you don't work with us, Idon't care.
(20:21):
That's not the point.
But if you're in a positionright now where you can get out,
or at the very least have abackup plan, have a plan B,
we've helped people that arehigh net worth individuals get
the residents somewhere inMexico and as little as 72 hours
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(20:41):
Just a second residency in yourback pocket, you can be on your
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go.
So I encourage you to take thatstep, book that call below, or
at the very least, take thatfirst step and, and do something
(21:03):
to secure your future and tosecure your family's future.
You're going to regret it 20years from now if you don't do
this.
But I can tell you for sure,you're not going to regret it.
If you do, whatever way you canfigure out a way to get out,
figure out a way to build thatplan B, because your life is
going to be so much better andyour children's lives are gonna
(21:26):
be so much better at the end ofthe day if you get them on a
path to success and bring themto a place where the economy and
all the numbers are going up,not down.
That's all we got for today.
Thank you so much for being apart of this community.
I appreciate you being here.
Don't forget to like andsubscribe if you haven't
(21:49):
already.
It really does help us out alot.
Book that consult below and ifyou're not a high net worth
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We've got some free resources.
We've got some courses as wellthat will help you.
Along that journey, a lot ofthem are free, and a lot of
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in some of these countries willactually help you get there.
(22:10):
So we'll help you, whether it'sa remote job, whether it's
building your own businessremotely that you can run from
anywhere.
We're happy to help you do that.
I'm Justin Keltner.
Thanks again for tuning intoday.