February 24, 2025 • 29 mins
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In this episode of Entropy Rising, Jacob and Lucas tackle one of the most thought-provoking and unsettling ideas in the search for extraterrestrial life: the Dark Forest Theory. This theory, popularized by science fiction but rooted in game theory and strategic thinking, suggests that the universe isn’t just quiet—it’s silent because intelligent civilizations know that making noise could be a fatal mistake.
The Fermi Paradox is at the heart of this discussion. With billions of planets scattered across the galaxy, the odds of intelligent life emerging elsewhere seem overwhelmingly high. So why haven’t we seen or heard any evidence of extraterrestrials? Some theories suggest that civilizations self-destruct before achieving interstellar capabilities, while others propose that we simply haven’t been listening in the right way. But the Dark Forest Theory offers a much darker explanation—what if advanced civilizations are intentionally hiding?
Jacob and Lucas explore the game theory behind this idea, comparing it to real-world scenarios where acting first is often the safest option. If civilizations view each other as potential threats, they may adopt a "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality. This leads to the unsettling possibility that the first sign of another civilization could also be the last—because the best strategy for survival might be to eliminate any potential competition before they become a threat.
One of the most fascinating aspects of this discussion is the idea of relativistic kill missiles (RKMs)—hypothetical weapons capable of traveling at near-light speeds and delivering catastrophic destruction across interstellar distances. If a civilization detects another developing species, could they fire an RKM to ensure their own survival before the other side has a chance to grow into a threat? And more importantly—have we already made ourselves a target by actively broadcasting signals into space through projects like SETI and the Arecibo Message?
The conversation doesn’t stop at doom and gloom. Jacob and Lucas also consider alternative explanations for the eerie silence of the cosmos. Could an advanced galactic community already exist, with rules preventing young civilizations from making contact until they prove themselves worthy? Or is it possible that self-replicating von Neumann probes are already out there, quietly monitoring emerging civilizations like ours, waiting to see if we develop in a way that aligns with their interests?
Despite the grim implications of the Dark Forest Theory, there are reasons to question whether it holds true. Human history shows that as civilizations advance, they tend to become less violent and more cooperative. Could the same be true on a galactic scale? If interstellar expansion requires collaboration and intelligence, would an advanced alien species even think in terms of conquest and paranoia? Or is it possible that we are simply alone in a vast, empty universe?
As Jacob and Lucas navigate these big questions, they invite listeners to consider the implications for humanity's future. Should we continue searching for extraterrestrial life? Should we be cautious about broadcasting our presence? Or is the fear of a hostile universe just another layer of sc
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Episode Transcript
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Jacob (00:00):
So taking something.
(00:01):
Getting up to, 99.
999, a couple of repeating ninespercent the speed of light and
hitting a sun, for example,could actually be enough to
cause their sun to go nova.
Lucas (00:10):
Now that's an interesting idea if you wanted to destroy
their entire solar system justto be safe.
I mean, well, why stop there?
Let's just take out all the sunsaround them just to be safe.
Jacob (00:51):
Hello and welcome to Entropy Rising, where we talk
about science and futurism.
I'm your host, Jacob, and I amhere with my wonderful co host,
Lucas.
Lucas, how are you doing today?
Jake, I'm doing great today.
How are you doing?
I'm doing good.
I'm happy to hear that.
today we have viewer requestedepisode, actually.
We ran a poll on threads.
This is what was voted for.
This is our second such episode,so If you're interested in
voting in these polls, follow uson threads.
(01:12):
Link in the description.
The topic for discussion todayis the Dark Forest Theory.
Which, as you know, is asolution to the Fermi Paradox.
Lucas (01:18):
Yep, it is one of the solutions, and to those out
there who don't know, the FermiParadox is essentially a bunch
of different theories as to whywe have not yet found alien
life.
Our galaxy, is so vast, andthere are so many planets out
there we just don't know why wehave not seen or heard from any
other life so far.
Jacob (01:36):
Exactly.
And the Fermi Paradox weactually covered in a previous
episode.
It was episode 5, so for anyonewho's more curious about the
Fermi Paradox as a whole, feelfree to check out that episode,
but it is not required that youlisten to that before this
episode.
Yeah, not at all.
as you said, there's multiplesolutions to the Fermi Paradox
is what they're typicallycalled, and the Dark Forest
Theory is one of thosesolutions.
(01:56):
Now the Dark Forest Theory is alittle bit of a, um, a chilling
solution, right?
It's not a happy solution.
But the Dark Forest Theoryessentially says Imagine that
you're a hunter alone in thewoods that is full of other
hunters.
the idea is you don't want tomake a lot of noise.
Because if you do, you riskdrawing other hunters to your
location who might shoot you.
(02:17):
And conversely, If you see ahunter making a bunch of noise,
lighting a big bonfire, the darkforest theory says it's in your
best advantage to go ahead andeliminate that hunter, because
that means there's one less outthere who could potentially
shoot you later on down theroad.
Lucas (02:30):
Yeah, in the dark forest theory, it's pretty much thought
that every other civilizationthat we could see that are
creating a measurement thatcould be read by some of our
instruments would be a possiblethreat.
so with that being known, Wouldit be the safest and best option
to preserve ourselves to shootfirst?
Yes,
Jacob (02:49):
exactly.
And, a lot of the the dark forcetheory comes from this idea of
game theory.
Are you familiar with gametheory?
I'm familiar with game theory.
I think most people are, if it'snot by name, most people have at
least heard of the Prisoner'sDilemma.
Have you heard of that thoughtexperiment, the Prisoner's
Dilemma?
I have not.
the Prisoner's Dilemma is, it'sa famous thought experiment.
It basically imagines you havetwo prisoners who are brought
(03:09):
into separate interview rooms,and they can stay silent, or
they can rat out the otherperson.
And it goes through thisexplanation saying that it's
always in their best interest Torat out the other person.
And the dark force theory has asimilar kind of dilemma.
Because, let's say you dodiscover a separate alien
civilization.
Let's say that I'm aliencivilization Jacob and you're
alien civilization Lucas.
(03:31):
Now, Lucas, if you discover mycivilization, one of the things
you have to keep in mind is thatwe really don't have any way to
communicate in a fast manner.
we might be a hundred lightyears away from each other.
when you discover me, you havethree options.
Option A is that you can chooseto do nothing.
You can, discover me and goabout your merry own life.
(03:51):
Option B is that you can chooseto send me a message, you can
reach out to my civilization inhopes of maybe building up some
type of friendship, and thenoption C is, if you have the
technology, you could try todestroy my civilization.
Now one thing you have to keepin mind for dark force theory,
is you have to know when youdiscover my civilization, I have
these exact same three options.
(04:13):
I could choose to ignore you,communicate with you, or destroy
you.
Now, the reasoning behind thedark force theory says that
option A and B, ignoring me orreaching out to me, have very
little benefit to you.
ignoring me obviously has nobenefit to you.
reaching out to me, maybe we canwork together on science, but
due to the communication delay,it's not like we're really going
to be able to share materials.
We can try to share ideas, but,any idea I send you is 100 years
(04:35):
out of date by the time itreaches you.
So you've probably discoveredthat on your own.
But, both those options, optionA and B, do carry a lot of risk.
Because if you identify yourselfin this dark forest, and I
choose to annihilate you, if Igo for option C, that's the most
cost for you, and you got theleast amount of gain in return
for it.
And you have to know that if yousend a message to me, I also
(04:56):
might choose to do option C, anddestroy you.
And you have no way of knowingwhat my intentions are.
Because, we're a hundred yearsaway from each other for any
type of communication.
Yeah.
the Dark Forest Theory and thegame theory behind it says,
mathematically, since option oneand two pose very little benefit
to you, but high risk, andoption C has a little bit of
risk to you, but high benefit,which is that you preserve your
(05:17):
own civilization,mathematically, it argues option
C is the option that you shouldgo for.
Lucas (05:21):
Yeah.
that makes total sense.
You would have first strikeadvantage if you were the first
to act.
And, unfortunately, Those whoshoot first would prevail.
Jacob (05:30):
That's at least the idea behind the dark forest theory,
right?
Is whoever shoots first has thebest advantage.
Now, do they, I don't know,that's a little bit, up for
debate, right?
Because there is a huge risktoo, with trying to shoot first,
which is that.
If you discover my civilization,and let's say that we're on
about the same technologicallevel, you fire off RKM, a
relativistic kill missile, atme, I have a hundred years to
(05:53):
develop before that reaches.
So there is a risk that maybe bythe time it gets to me, we've
expanded out past our solarsystem.
Or let's say we're a thousandlight years away from each
other.
The time you detect mycivilization It took a thousand
years for that light to reachyou, and then you decide to send
a relativistic missile back.
It takes a thousand years toreach us.
We've had two thousand years ofdevelopment.
We could be a huge, multi starspanning empire at that point,
(06:16):
and you just took a pot shot atus.
Lucas (06:17):
Absolutely.
and thinking about that, that'sactually a huge player in it is
that depending on how far awaythey are, those actions that you
make give them that amount oftime to prepare.
Exactly.
Assuming that they would be ableto notice that you had done
something that was hostile atthat point.
Jacob (06:34):
But that's tricky because of light delay.
If you detect the light from acivilization and then
immediately respond withsomething that travels near the
speed of light, which is theidea behind a relativistic kill
missile, then there's no waythey could possibly know that
you fired that off.
Because by the time the lightreaches them to let them know
you launched such a weapon, theweapon's right behind that light
wave.
Lucas (06:54):
Right.
Well, you know, it could be afraction of a speed of light.
moving, just a smaller objectlike the size of an elephant or
a school bus we could shoot at aplanet.
and that's more likely becausetrying to achieve close to speed
of light is more difficult.
Jacob (07:08):
It is more tricky, but it does also have a lot of
advantages the closer you get tothe speed of light, the more
kinetic energy it carries.
And you're gonna need a a largeweapon to annihilate a
civilization.
So taking something.
Getting up to, 99.
999, a couple of repeating ninespercent the speed of light and
hitting a sun, for example,could actually be enough to
cause their sun to go nova.
Lucas (07:28):
Now that's an interesting idea if you wanted to destroy
their entire solar system justto be safe.
Jacob (07:33):
Which you should probably do because there's always the
risk that they have O'Neillcylinders maybe orbiting other
planets.
They could have colonized theirmoon, other moons, it's really
hard to be sure.
So yeah, take out the solarsystem is the best bet.
Lucas (07:45):
let's just say that they're a hundred light years
away, they've had a hundredyears to advance from the point
that we saw them as being ahostile civilization.
And then they have anotherhundred years.
If we're traveling at that speedof light or just.
Below that speed of light tothen advance more.
So they have 200 years ofadvancement by the time that we
fired our projectile.
(08:06):
Yeah.
yeah, I mean, well, why stopthere?
Let's just take out all the sunsaround them just to be safe.
Jacob (08:11):
That's fair.
Cause there is always the riskthat they could have expanded on
the separate solar systems.
And there's a huge risk if youdon't completely annihilate
them, because.
What if they stick around,right?
They're going to hold a grudgeon you.
You just made a blood enemy.
Lucas (08:21):
Yeah.
And I mean, then you share thesame fate, but they also have
the same issue, right?
If we're at similar pointstechnologically, then we would
have advanced.
assuming we would have advanced,the same amount that they would
have in span multiple starsystems.
Jacob (08:36):
I agree.
Now that actually, you broughtup an interesting point.
You said if we were at similarpoints technologically, and
that's a really big if, becausewhat are the actual odds that
two civilizations would discovereach other?
when they're the same pointtechnologically.
I mean a thousand years is ahumongous difference
technologically.
Oh yeah, it's massive.
That's a rounding error on thetypes of timescale civilizations
(08:57):
develop over.
So what are the odds you'regoing to stumble across a
civilization that's equally asdeveloped as you?
I think rather slim.
Lucas (09:05):
I, I would say so, yes.
So
Jacob (09:07):
you're either discovering a civilization that's
significantly more advanced thanyou, which means you're not
going to want to attack them, oryou're discovering a
civilization that'ssignificantly less advanced than
you.
And I think the Dark ForestTheory argues, you're going to
want to target any civilizationless advanced than you, because
you don't want them to become anadvanced civilization that could
rival you.
Lucas (09:24):
Yeah, but then again, if you start targeting those
civilizations, you then showyourself to the larger
civilizations that could thentarget you, and you've proven
yourself hostile.
Jacob (09:33):
That is also a fair point, and an issue with the
Dark Forest Theory is that, youknow, if you're this raging,
civilization, taking pot shotsat anyone that reveals
themselves, how long beforesomeone Decides to hick you
about too, because like yousaid, you're now showing
yourself to be incrediblyhostile.
Lucas (09:46):
Exactly.
Which could then bring an actualbenefit too.
Not acting through the, like theway of the dark forest theory,
right?
You said that option A and Bgive us little benefit.
But if we are able to see thatthere is other alien life, and
we can assume that alien lifeout there could be in more
abundance, perhaps even agalactic community of some type,
(10:07):
then it would be in our bestinterest not to fire.
Jacob (10:10):
That's true, but I do want to point out, though, that
This notion of civilizationsdirectly shooting each other
isn't the only way that you canhave a dark forest state.
Lucas (10:18):
Oh yeah, absolutely.
Jacob (10:20):
a famous one is something like the Inhibitors from
Revelation Space.
If anyone's read that book, it'sa great book.
They basically designed amachine intelligence that roams
around the galaxy andannihilates any budding
civilization that's entering theinterstellar.
Theater.
And this is another solution oranother proposal of the dark
force theory is maybe you've hadare you familiar with von
Neumann probes?
Yes.
(10:40):
So von Neumann probes are selfreplicating probes, and it's a
proposed way to colonize theentire galaxy.
You send them off, they go toanother solar system, they
replicate themselves, and thenthey exponentially spread across
the galaxy.
there's this proposal for thedark force theory that maybe a
civilization has developed vonNeumann probes and either
intentionally or accidentally,these probes are also
annihilating any form of lifethat crops up.
(11:03):
So if you send out messages andany of these von Neumann probes
notice them, they come to yoursolar system and just cleanse
it.
Lucas (11:09):
See, I actually would see that as a far more likely.
outcome as to what could happen,maybe a civilization advanced,
not just a couple of thousandyears, but a million years prior
to us.
And they've reached levels thatare unfathomable and they
thought in the same way that wewould think it's in our best
interest to destroy.
Our neighbors that are similarin technology to us, they were
like, let's just destroyeverything that gets to a
(11:31):
certain point, right?
And it could be that they comedown and they just eradicate the
smartest creature on thatplanet.
and then they fly off until itgets to another point like that.
But we could be being monitoredright now and have no idea.
But that would mean if that wassomething that occurred and all
of the other civilizationsaround us were already quiet,
they either truly believe in thesame theory or they actually
(11:52):
were able to witness anothercivilization go dark because of
something like this and they arealready staying quiet.
Which would mean that everybodythat is quiet out in the galaxy
is either, staying hidden ordead at this point.
Jacob (12:04):
Yeah, that's true.
quiet you need to have,Witnessed someone else get
annihilated right so that meansthere does need to be a certain
rate of new civilizationscropping up getting You know
cold and then all the remainingcivilizations being able to
witness that and this ispossible I mean this could
happen.
We've only been able to reallydo radio astronomy for example
for what a hundred years now Somaybe it's the case that every,
(12:24):
two, three, four hundred yearsthis happens and any
civilization that happens tohave the technology to detect
this but doesn't quite have thetechnology to make themselves
noticeable are just the luckyones.
They get to see this happen andthey know to shut up.
Or like you said, it's possiblethat it's just every
civilization gets annihilatedeventually because one of the
issues with the dark foresttheory is that you really can't
stay hidden on the galacticscale.
You really can't hide life on aplanet.
(12:46):
I think a lot of people imagineour radio signals and our
broadcast signals are what givesus away.
But those actually are prettyunlikely to be discovered by an
alien civilization, at leastright now.
And that's not the biggestgiveaway that there's life on
Earth.
Actually, our atmosphere isgoing to be the biggest giveaway
that there's life on Earth.
One of the ways that SETIactually looks for alien life
and something that an advancedcivilization Would be able to do
(13:07):
much better is we will actuallytake a spectra of the atmosphere
of a planet when it's passingbetween its star and our
telescopes and by the way, theLight from that star gets
shifted as it passes through theatmosphere.
We can figure out the chemicalcomposition of the atmosphere of
that planet and we can look forthings like high oxygen content,
for example Because oxygen is afairly volatile element.
(13:28):
It's very reactive.
So it's actually pretty rare tohave high concentrations of
oxygen on rocky planets, forexample.
'cause it typically getssequestered in the form of like
oxides, like iron oxides.
Mm-hmm So if you see a planetwith high oxygen content, it's a
dead giveaway.
That planet probably has life,
Lucas (13:42):
at least plant life.
Jacob (13:43):
Yes.
At least plant life or Some typeof life,
Lucas (13:45):
Yeah, some type of life that converts something into
oxygen.
Exactly,
Jacob (13:49):
because it has to be a constant, reoccurring process,
and there aren't many, or as faras I know, there might not be
any natural processes for thisto happen.
So that means, if there is somealien intelligence looking to
eliminate any life in thegalaxy, they already know Earth
has life.
that leads to one possibility,right?
If this is true, if the darkforce theory is true, And
there's an event specieseliminating any lesser species.
(14:10):
It must be the case that atleast basic life is very common.
Because otherwise, the life onEarth would have been eliminated
a long time ago.
But if you imagine a situationwhere maybe basic life is very
common, then these biomarkers oflife would be all over the
galaxy.
And there's too many of them toefficiently go and kill all of
them.
But if intelligent life is veryrare, then that's the only
situation where the dark forcetheory makes sense, is that
(14:32):
basic life must be common,intelligent life must be very
rare.
Lucas (14:35):
Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
they would be looking not Notjust for life, but for signs
that life is advancing in a waythat they could get to the point
that higher civilization isright now.
Exactly.
And actually become a threat.
we could build a Dyson Swarm andthen get blown up 20 years
later.
Yeah, that,
Jacob (14:53):
or we could just get annihilated, down the road
because if they're constantlychecking the spectra of planets
that can harbor life, they mightbe looking for certain key
compounds that indicate thatindustry has happened.
In that planet.
If you see a sudden spike incarbon dioxide, for example,
maybe that would be a sign ofhey, you know, over the past
hundred years, this planet hashad an unprecedented spike of
carbon dioxide or othergreenhouse gases.
(15:14):
Let's send a dark force striketo them just to be safe.
Lucas (15:16):
Yeah.
Yeah, absolutely.
Or they saw evidence of ussplitting the atom and they were
like, okay.
It's time to go.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jacob (15:23):
Yeah.
It's very possible there'scertain compounds that are made
once that happens.
And once that's detected, maybe,these, horde of, robot
intelligences go up.
That planet needs to go.
Lucas (15:32):
They could be on their way right now.
They're just a thousand yearsout.
Jacob (15:35):
Yeah, exactly.
Lucas (15:37):
But yeah, no, it's all part of the fun.
Jacob (15:39):
Oh, is it fun?
I don't know.
Lucas (15:42):
Now, but talking about all that doom and gloom, there
is a little bit on the brighterside.
Personally, I don't think thatthe Dark Forest Theory would be
a viable solution to thisparadox.
And I feel like you feel thesame, Jake.
Jacob (15:54):
Yeah, I do.
I think it has a lot of issues.
I think the one I proposed ofroaming von Neumann probes are
the most likely solution, butthat also has a couple of
problems with it, too, in thesense that I wouldn't have
expected Life on Earth to get asfar as it has already if that
was the case.
Lucas (16:08):
Yeah.
the biggest issue that I findwith it is that as we progress
as a civilization, we becomeless violent.
Okay.
So You would have to assume thattrend would continue and that
trend would then assuming thatall life, grows up the same way,
which it might not, but assumingthat all life would grow in the
same way culturally as oursdoes.
(16:29):
then we would assume that asthey progress, and as we become
a more unified planet, we wouldhave those thoughts of violence
less and less, and a highercivilization right now might not
even have thoughts of claim andviolence.
Jacob (16:44):
Okay, I see where you're coming from.
And I can see some logic behindthat, or some rationale behind
You would think as acivilization gets larger and
tries to undertake largerprojects like developing an
orbital economy, branching outinto space, they would need more
collaboration.
I think we're going to needsignificant levels of
international collaboration tosignificantly colonize our solar
system.
(17:04):
So perhaps you're right That's anecessary prerequisite to
advance to the stars, is tobecome less violent, less
tribal.
is it universalizable?
To an extent, I think so, maybe,unless you have a violent hive
mind out there that Yeah, or
Lucas (17:17):
you could have warrior cultures that pride themselves
on killing and sacrifice, andthey've advanced in some way.
I
Jacob (17:24):
think that's actually pretty unlikely, Yeah, but it
Lucas (17:26):
is a possibility.
Jacob (17:28):
Is it?
I don't know.
I have a hard time imagining awarrior culture like the
Klingons from Star Trek couldactually become space faring.
Even in the lore of Star Trek,the Klingons weren't always
warrior like.
they developed significantlybefore they became like that.
And I think even their warriorlike antics are contained to
very specific things.
The majority of the populationis not going around and
murdering everyone anytime.
Lucas (17:46):
No, that, that is true.
the reason why I say that couldbe a possibility is I imagine a
solar system where there'sintelligent life that develops
side by side.
You could have spacefaring warsbetween the neighboring planets,
which could then drive theirtechnology even farther and more
advanced because war doesadvance technology in most
cases.
Jacob (18:05):
I guess that's true, or at least in humans it does,
because it's the only time weactually put a lot of money
behind R& D.
That's not necessarilyuniversalizably true.
You might have a species thatjust values research and just,
Dedicates a significant portionof its version of a GDP to
research anyways.
Lucas (18:20):
Yes.
And just to be clear, I do agreewith you that it is probably not
likely, but it's not impossible.
I guess it's
Jacob (18:25):
not impossible.
I do think it's, yeah.
And that's the thing with thedark force theory in general,
people like to argue, I've madeseveral posts about this on
threads, and the generalargument is that It's unlikely
that civilizations would advanceto then still be a violence, but
my argument to that is alwaysyou only need one.
You only need one civilizationto get spacefaring technology
that decides to eliminate anyoneelse underneath them to have a
(18:46):
dark force state.
Lucas (18:47):
That is true.
Jacob (18:48):
So even if it's incredibly rare that does
happen, it only needs to happenonce.
So it depends how common lifeis.
Lucas (18:55):
Yeah.
there could be a section in ourgalaxy that is currently
experiencing a dark forest,right?
But, perhaps then there is evenanother filter that could weed
them out.
Yeah.
And then we're in multipledifferent, theories for, or
solutions for the Fermi Paradox.
Jacob (19:11):
Absolutely.
I will also say too, an issuewith the Dark Forest Theory is,
I went into kind of the gametheory behind it at the
beginning of the episode.
And mathematically that kind ofworks on paper, but There are
some significant issues, one ofthem I briefly touched on, which
is that, there is a significantrisk to you performing a dark
force strike to trying toeliminate abutting civilization,
is that one, you're identifyingyourself, it's really hard to
(19:33):
launch something like thatwithout being seen by others,
and two, you have to be 100percent certain that your dark
force strike is going toeliminate that civilization, or
else you've now just, increasedthe likelihood that they're
going to retaliate.
You've taken a huge risk and ifyou can't guarantee 100 percent
success, is it worth it to takethat risk in the first place?
And that's the type of map thatevery civilization would be
(19:53):
running.
And because of light delay, youhave no idea what that Species
is like when you actually, yourrelativistic missile reaches
there.
Lucas (20:01):
Yeah.
Jacob (20:01):
So it could be the case, that you're looking at the
civilization, they're 300 lightyears away.
You're a hundred percent certainthat, if you fired your RKV
right now, and hit their sun, itcould eliminate them.
But can you be sure that when itactually reaches there in 300
years, they haven't advancedmore than that?
Lucas (20:15):
yeah, it definitely is, a massive risk at that point when
you do think about it
Jacob (20:19):
and.
Can you be sure there's not somemore advanced civilization than
you, also, looking for peoplefiring these types of, weapons.
And the minute you fire yours,they might be firing theirs at
you.
like we said, we touched onearlier, you've now identified
yourself to the whole galaxy asa risk.
Lucas (20:33):
Exactly.
they could have just beenindoctrinated into, A galactic
security type of thing whereit's just mutually assured
safety.
Yes.
Amongst everybody.
And then the new guy comes intothe room and starts launching
missiles.
Yeah.
They're gonna be like, dude, getrid of him.
Jacob (20:47):
Yeah, exactly.
Lucas (20:48):
Get him out of
Jacob (20:49):
here.
I do think the notion of sometype of intergalactic community
is actually pretty unlikely tolight delay.
Having any type of coherentLarge body that spans a galaxy.
It's just it's not doable in myopinion.
This goes also with colonizationBut even with alien species, I
think it's unlikely you're gonnahave any type of Wide scale
communication or coordinationbecause how could you?
Lucas (21:10):
Yeah we could think of it this way as that super advanced
civilization that came a millionyears prior They don't
communicate with any of theplanets but they do ensure the
mutual safety of them.
Jacob (21:21):
One way you could, somewhat go about this is it
won't be coordinated in the wayyou're thinking of an
intergalactic, Security force.
But it could be the case thatwhen we launch into space and we
start expanding, we get amessage from a more advanced
species, or maybe several ofthem, that says, Hey,
congratulations, welcome to thegalaxy.
You are allowed to expand 200light years, maybe 1, 000 light
years, from the radius of yourhome planet.
(21:42):
That is your volume of space,and everyone is going to
immediately target you anddestroy you if you expand any
further than that.
That's the space you get.
please put up some markers.
maybe a giant broadcastingstation that says, this is my
area.
And if you expand beyond that,then you've become a target for
everyone.
Lucas (21:57):
Yeah.
See a galactic community thatnever sees each other, but gets
a singular message.
Yes.
to let us know that they arethere.
I feel like that would beprobably the most realistic
thing that we could look, to,coexisting with alien life.
Jacob (22:11):
yeah, I agree.
And the irony of that isactually how dark force here on
Earth actually work.
predators, they mark theirterritory.
And the reason you do that isyou're telling any would be
attacker of your same species oranything like hey, this is my
territory and that's going todissuade a majority of them who
decide they don't want to dealwith the fighting because it's a
huge risk in nature to actuallyhave a battle because if you get
(22:34):
injured it's death and it's kindof the same thing in space right
if you try to take over a regionof space you're also risking
yourself getting injured andmaybe in a dark forest state
galaxy taking a significant blowyou It might not kill you, but
now you've become significantlyweakened and there's a risk
other people are going to attackyou now.
So by just announcing yourpresence saying, I'm taking this
volume of space, it's mine, thatcould be enough for someone to
(22:55):
say, it's not worth it to expandinto that space, even if it
would be beneficial to me, it'sjust not worth the risk,
Lucas (23:00):
which, would definitely be much more.
of a safe route, it's justestablishing that communication,
marking our territory to others,would be something that would
have to be understoodthroughout.
So it would need thatgeneralized message.
Jacob (23:15):
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
Maybe some type of beacon thatjust announces it.
And we don't see anything likethis though is the only problem
is you would expect thesebeacons to work on some form of
electromagnetic radiation.
I guess people always say, ah,maybe they use.
some form of communication thatwe don't know of.
it's not impossible.
If you're a tribe in the Amazon,you might look around and say,
there's no other civilizationbecause you can't detect radio
(23:35):
waves.
I don't know if I fully buy thatthough.
I don't know.
There could be maybe some formof, extra layer of physics that,
enables communication that we'reunaware of that maybe is
beneficial on galactic scalesthat we haven't discovered.
And maybe when we develop thattechnology, we'll find that we
actually are surrounded byaliens.
but I do actually personallybelieve that's probably not
likely.
Lucas (23:52):
Yeah, I mean, I like to buy into the thoughts that we're
just scratching the surface ofAnything that science can offer
us because that's how sciencealways is Do you think that we
understand it and it's never thesame a hundred years later?
I have no evidence to supportthat wouldn't continue, right?
So, you know, I will buy intothat but then of course on the
other hand we have to try tounderstand and rationalize these
(24:16):
theories with what I do knowcurrently.
so I do see both sides of that.
Jacob (24:19):
it could be the case that maybe the whole galaxy is
communicating with gravitationalwaves, which is something that,
is real and can be manipulated.
And maybe it turns out that'smore efficient over long
distances.
And some technology allows thatto be a way we communicate.
Because right now, Humans candetect gravitational waves, but
we can only detect massiveevents like two black holes
colliding.
(24:40):
So maybe, all thesecivilizations have discovered an
efficient way to send messagesthat way.
And that's how they have tocommunicate.
And we just can't detect thosesignals with the right level of
fidelity.
It definitely could be.
And that's just one example.
maybe there's some other stufftoo.
We don't really understand darkmatter, dark energy.
maybe there's something that canbe done with that, or maybe
there's a level beyond that.
Lucas (24:55):
Yeah.
it is just like, these are alltheories for, things that could
work that way but another reasonwhy I don't.
Feel like the dark forest theorywould be a real thing is because
watching our civilization andhow we have Eagerly thrown our
information into space on ourvoyagers, we've put our
understanding of physics and thecoordinates to our planet
(25:17):
specifically in the universe.
We have SETI whose entire job isto try and find alien life and
which then would reveal us whatpoint do we just completely
shift and go?
Oh.
Stop all that.
We're just going to hide.
Jacob (25:30):
Yeah, I know.
I agree with that.
And there's this axiom instatistics that says if you only
ever have one datum point andyou need to extrapolate off from
that data point a much largerset, you should always assume
that data point comes from anaverage because it's much more
likely to represent an averageresult than an outlier.
I think, with what you said, weshould look at what humanity is
doing, and it's not anunreasonable assumption to think
(25:51):
aliens would do the same thing.
And, I think naturally, ifyou're going to be a spacefaring
civilization, you have to be atleast somewhat curious to
develop science in the firstplace.
So I think, yeah, why wouldn'talien civilizations also
announce their presence and tryto find other ones out there?
Lucas (26:04):
Yeah.
even with us, I feel that humansand our planet are, particularly
violent.
Jacob (26:10):
I think what I said also applies here.
We should assume humans areabout an average level of
aggression.
any alien civilization has alsohad to go through natural
selection, evolution, predation,so I think it's reasonable to
assume we're not.
Uniquely violent.
We're probably averagelyviolent.
Lucas (26:24):
Okay.
Yeah.
No, that, I do agree with that.
we are averagely violent, right?
but we are violent.
but yet we still go into thisnew frontier.
and what could be newcivilizations with an eagerness
instead of a fear.
Jacob (26:41):
I think so.
Yeah.
Lucas (26:41):
And I just feel like that.
We'll never naturally shiftunless like we talked about
before, we saw evidence of lifeon a planet and then one day it
just went out.
Jacob (26:50):
Yeah, that or, maybe as we develop technology, we start
finding signs of ruinedcivilization.
At that point, we might say, allright, guys, we got to be quiet.
something's going on here.
A lot of civilizations arefalling, shut it all down, shut
it all off.
Lucas (27:02):
Yeah, but then you also have to assume if we are an
average, and other civilizationsdeveloped like us, who started
it?
Jacob (27:09):
Yeah.
Lucas (27:09):
who was like, oh, there they are.
Let's launch the first missileand get this whole thing going.
It's just, it just seemsunlikely to me.
Jacob (27:16):
Yeah.
No, I agree.
I agree.
The Dark Forest Theory, it'sgood food for thought.
It makes a great book, The ThreeBody Problem, if you haven't
read it, that series, the secondwhich is literally called The
Dark Forest.
And while it didn't invent thistheory, it didn't make it
popular.
it was a great book.
I liked it but I think reality,it's not, I believe the most
realistic solution to the FermiParadox.
Lucas (27:34):
No, it is one of the most exciting though.
It is.
Thanks for good books.
It does.
It's a great, yeah.
Jacob (27:39):
Tells a wonderful story, I think.
Lucas (27:40):
Yeah.
Jacob (27:41):
All right.
Lucas, I think we both havesimilar feelings in the dark
forest This was an interestingdiscussion.
Hey before you guys close out ofyour players of choice.
I want to let you guys know thatas we are approaching our 10th
episode, Lucas and I want tomake an additional episode of
sort of like an AMA, get to knowus and all that, that we will
release after episode 10, butbefore episode 11.
So if you have any questions forus, whether it's personal
(28:02):
questions about Lucas or me, ifit's questions regarding
anything on science fiction,futurism, questions about
previous episodes, questionsabout the podcast itself, just
let us know.
Leave it in the comments ofwhatever platform you're on, I
check all of those.
If the podcast platform you'reon doesn't allow comments, check
out our threads, I'm gonna put apost on there, so that you guys
can leave your questions, andthose will be answered in that
episode.
And like I said, that's notgonna replace episode 10 or 11,
(28:24):
it'll be released the Monday inbetween.
please leave your questions,we're eager to get to know you
guys a little bit better.
And I think it'd be a great wayfor you guys to get to know Wes
personally.
Lucas (28:33):
And it'll be fun.
Jacob (28:34):
Exactly.
thank you so much for joiningus.
Please stick around to the endto hear our author spotlight.
Lucas (28:39):
Thank you all so much.
Bye bye.
So taking something.
(00:01):
Getting up to, 99.
999, a couple of repeating ninespercent the speed of light and
hitting a sun, for example,could actually be enough to
cause their sun to go nova.
Lucas (00:10):
Now that's an interesting idea if you wanted to destroy
their entire solar system justto be safe.
I mean, well, why stop there?
Let's just take out all the sunsaround them just to be safe.
Jacob (00:51):
Hello and welcome to Entropy Rising, where we talk
about science and futurism.
I'm your host, Jacob, and I amhere with my wonderful co host,
Lucas.
Lucas, how are you doing today?
Jake, I'm doing great today.
How are you doing?
I'm doing good.
I'm happy to hear that.
today we have viewer requestedepisode, actually.
We ran a poll on threads.
This is what was voted for.
This is our second such episode,so If you're interested in
voting in these polls, follow uson threads.
(01:12):
Link in the description.
The topic for discussion todayis the Dark Forest Theory.
Which, as you know, is asolution to the Fermi Paradox.
Lucas (01:18):
Yep, it is one of the solutions, and to those out
there who don't know, the FermiParadox is essentially a bunch
of different theories as to whywe have not yet found alien
life.
Our galaxy, is so vast, andthere are so many planets out
there we just don't know why wehave not seen or heard from any
other life so far.
Jacob (01:36):
Exactly.
And the Fermi Paradox weactually covered in a previous
episode.
It was episode 5, so for anyonewho's more curious about the
Fermi Paradox as a whole, feelfree to check out that episode,
but it is not required that youlisten to that before this
episode.
Yeah, not at all.
as you said, there's multiplesolutions to the Fermi Paradox
is what they're typicallycalled, and the Dark Forest
Theory is one of thosesolutions.
(01:56):
Now the Dark Forest Theory is alittle bit of a, um, a chilling
solution, right?
It's not a happy solution.
But the Dark Forest Theoryessentially says Imagine that
you're a hunter alone in thewoods that is full of other
hunters.
the idea is you don't want tomake a lot of noise.
Because if you do, you riskdrawing other hunters to your
location who might shoot you.
(02:17):
And conversely, If you see ahunter making a bunch of noise,
lighting a big bonfire, the darkforest theory says it's in your
best advantage to go ahead andeliminate that hunter, because
that means there's one less outthere who could potentially
shoot you later on down theroad.
Lucas (02:30):
Yeah, in the dark forest theory, it's pretty much thought
that every other civilizationthat we could see that are
creating a measurement thatcould be read by some of our
instruments would be a possiblethreat.
so with that being known, Wouldit be the safest and best option
to preserve ourselves to shootfirst?
Yes,
Jacob (02:49):
exactly.
And, a lot of the the dark forcetheory comes from this idea of
game theory.
Are you familiar with gametheory?
I'm familiar with game theory.
I think most people are, if it'snot by name, most people have at
least heard of the Prisoner'sDilemma.
Have you heard of that thoughtexperiment, the Prisoner's
Dilemma?
I have not.
the Prisoner's Dilemma is, it'sa famous thought experiment.
It basically imagines you havetwo prisoners who are brought
(03:09):
into separate interview rooms,and they can stay silent, or
they can rat out the otherperson.
And it goes through thisexplanation saying that it's
always in their best interest Torat out the other person.
And the dark force theory has asimilar kind of dilemma.
Because, let's say you dodiscover a separate alien
civilization.
Let's say that I'm aliencivilization Jacob and you're
alien civilization Lucas.
(03:31):
Now, Lucas, if you discover mycivilization, one of the things
you have to keep in mind is thatwe really don't have any way to
communicate in a fast manner.
we might be a hundred lightyears away from each other.
when you discover me, you havethree options.
Option A is that you can chooseto do nothing.
You can, discover me and goabout your merry own life.
(03:51):
Option B is that you can chooseto send me a message, you can
reach out to my civilization inhopes of maybe building up some
type of friendship, and thenoption C is, if you have the
technology, you could try todestroy my civilization.
Now one thing you have to keepin mind for dark force theory,
is you have to know when youdiscover my civilization, I have
these exact same three options.
(04:13):
I could choose to ignore you,communicate with you, or destroy
you.
Now, the reasoning behind thedark force theory says that
option A and B, ignoring me orreaching out to me, have very
little benefit to you.
ignoring me obviously has nobenefit to you.
reaching out to me, maybe we canwork together on science, but
due to the communication delay,it's not like we're really going
to be able to share materials.
We can try to share ideas, but,any idea I send you is 100 years
(04:35):
out of date by the time itreaches you.
So you've probably discoveredthat on your own.
But, both those options, optionA and B, do carry a lot of risk.
Because if you identify yourselfin this dark forest, and I
choose to annihilate you, if Igo for option C, that's the most
cost for you, and you got theleast amount of gain in return
for it.
And you have to know that if yousend a message to me, I also
(04:56):
might choose to do option C, anddestroy you.
And you have no way of knowingwhat my intentions are.
Because, we're a hundred yearsaway from each other for any
type of communication.
Yeah.
the Dark Forest Theory and thegame theory behind it says,
mathematically, since option oneand two pose very little benefit
to you, but high risk, andoption C has a little bit of
risk to you, but high benefit,which is that you preserve your
(05:17):
own civilization,mathematically, it argues option
C is the option that you shouldgo for.
Lucas (05:21):
Yeah.
that makes total sense.
You would have first strikeadvantage if you were the first
to act.
And, unfortunately, Those whoshoot first would prevail.
Jacob (05:30):
That's at least the idea behind the dark forest theory,
right?
Is whoever shoots first has thebest advantage.
Now, do they, I don't know,that's a little bit, up for
debate, right?
Because there is a huge risktoo, with trying to shoot first,
which is that.
If you discover my civilization,and let's say that we're on
about the same technologicallevel, you fire off RKM, a
relativistic kill missile, atme, I have a hundred years to
(05:53):
develop before that reaches.
So there is a risk that maybe bythe time it gets to me, we've
expanded out past our solarsystem.
Or let's say we're a thousandlight years away from each
other.
The time you detect mycivilization It took a thousand
years for that light to reachyou, and then you decide to send
a relativistic missile back.
It takes a thousand years toreach us.
We've had two thousand years ofdevelopment.
We could be a huge, multi starspanning empire at that point,
(06:16):
and you just took a pot shot atus.
Lucas (06:17):
Absolutely.
and thinking about that, that'sactually a huge player in it is
that depending on how far awaythey are, those actions that you
make give them that amount oftime to prepare.
Exactly.
Assuming that they would be ableto notice that you had done
something that was hostile atthat point.
Jacob (06:34):
But that's tricky because of light delay.
If you detect the light from acivilization and then
immediately respond withsomething that travels near the
speed of light, which is theidea behind a relativistic kill
missile, then there's no waythey could possibly know that
you fired that off.
Because by the time the lightreaches them to let them know
you launched such a weapon, theweapon's right behind that light
wave.
Lucas (06:54):
Right.
Well, you know, it could be afraction of a speed of light.
moving, just a smaller objectlike the size of an elephant or
a school bus we could shoot at aplanet.
and that's more likely becausetrying to achieve close to speed
of light is more difficult.
Jacob (07:08):
It is more tricky, but it does also have a lot of
advantages the closer you get tothe speed of light, the more
kinetic energy it carries.
And you're gonna need a a largeweapon to annihilate a
civilization.
So taking something.
Getting up to, 99.
999, a couple of repeating ninespercent the speed of light and
hitting a sun, for example,could actually be enough to
cause their sun to go nova.
Lucas (07:28):
Now that's an interesting idea if you wanted to destroy
their entire solar system justto be safe.
Jacob (07:33):
Which you should probably do because there's always the
risk that they have O'Neillcylinders maybe orbiting other
planets.
They could have colonized theirmoon, other moons, it's really
hard to be sure.
So yeah, take out the solarsystem is the best bet.
Lucas (07:45):
let's just say that they're a hundred light years
away, they've had a hundredyears to advance from the point
that we saw them as being ahostile civilization.
And then they have anotherhundred years.
If we're traveling at that speedof light or just.
Below that speed of light tothen advance more.
So they have 200 years ofadvancement by the time that we
fired our projectile.
(08:06):
Yeah.
yeah, I mean, well, why stopthere?
Let's just take out all the sunsaround them just to be safe.
Jacob (08:11):
That's fair.
Cause there is always the riskthat they could have expanded on
the separate solar systems.
And there's a huge risk if youdon't completely annihilate
them, because.
What if they stick around,right?
They're going to hold a grudgeon you.
You just made a blood enemy.
Lucas (08:21):
Yeah.
And I mean, then you share thesame fate, but they also have
the same issue, right?
If we're at similar pointstechnologically, then we would
have advanced.
assuming we would have advanced,the same amount that they would
have in span multiple starsystems.
Jacob (08:36):
I agree.
Now that actually, you broughtup an interesting point.
You said if we were at similarpoints technologically, and
that's a really big if, becausewhat are the actual odds that
two civilizations would discovereach other?
when they're the same pointtechnologically.
I mean a thousand years is ahumongous difference
technologically.
Oh yeah, it's massive.
That's a rounding error on thetypes of timescale civilizations
(08:57):
develop over.
So what are the odds you'regoing to stumble across a
civilization that's equally asdeveloped as you?
I think rather slim.
Lucas (09:05):
I, I would say so, yes.
So
Jacob (09:07):
you're either discovering a civilization that's
significantly more advanced thanyou, which means you're not
going to want to attack them, oryou're discovering a
civilization that'ssignificantly less advanced than
you.
And I think the Dark ForestTheory argues, you're going to
want to target any civilizationless advanced than you, because
you don't want them to become anadvanced civilization that could
rival you.
Lucas (09:24):
Yeah, but then again, if you start targeting those
civilizations, you then showyourself to the larger
civilizations that could thentarget you, and you've proven
yourself hostile.
Jacob (09:33):
That is also a fair point, and an issue with the
Dark Forest Theory is that, youknow, if you're this raging,
civilization, taking pot shotsat anyone that reveals
themselves, how long beforesomeone Decides to hick you
about too, because like yousaid, you're now showing
yourself to be incrediblyhostile.
Lucas (09:46):
Exactly.
Which could then bring an actualbenefit too.
Not acting through the, like theway of the dark forest theory,
right?
You said that option A and Bgive us little benefit.
But if we are able to see thatthere is other alien life, and
we can assume that alien lifeout there could be in more
abundance, perhaps even agalactic community of some type,
(10:07):
then it would be in our bestinterest not to fire.
Jacob (10:10):
That's true, but I do want to point out, though, that
This notion of civilizationsdirectly shooting each other
isn't the only way that you canhave a dark forest state.
Lucas (10:18):
Oh yeah, absolutely.
Jacob (10:20):
a famous one is something like the Inhibitors from
Revelation Space.
If anyone's read that book, it'sa great book.
They basically designed amachine intelligence that roams
around the galaxy andannihilates any budding
civilization that's entering theinterstellar.
Theater.
And this is another solution oranother proposal of the dark
force theory is maybe you've hadare you familiar with von
Neumann probes?
Yes.
(10:40):
So von Neumann probes are selfreplicating probes, and it's a
proposed way to colonize theentire galaxy.
You send them off, they go toanother solar system, they
replicate themselves, and thenthey exponentially spread across
the galaxy.
there's this proposal for thedark force theory that maybe a
civilization has developed vonNeumann probes and either
intentionally or accidentally,these probes are also
annihilating any form of lifethat crops up.
(11:03):
So if you send out messages andany of these von Neumann probes
notice them, they come to yoursolar system and just cleanse
it.
Lucas (11:09):
See, I actually would see that as a far more likely.
outcome as to what could happen,maybe a civilization advanced,
not just a couple of thousandyears, but a million years prior
to us.
And they've reached levels thatare unfathomable and they
thought in the same way that wewould think it's in our best
interest to destroy.
Our neighbors that are similarin technology to us, they were
like, let's just destroyeverything that gets to a
(11:31):
certain point, right?
And it could be that they comedown and they just eradicate the
smartest creature on thatplanet.
and then they fly off until itgets to another point like that.
But we could be being monitoredright now and have no idea.
But that would mean if that wassomething that occurred and all
of the other civilizationsaround us were already quiet,
they either truly believe in thesame theory or they actually
(11:52):
were able to witness anothercivilization go dark because of
something like this and they arealready staying quiet.
Which would mean that everybodythat is quiet out in the galaxy
is either, staying hidden ordead at this point.
Jacob (12:04):
Yeah, that's true.
quiet you need to have,Witnessed someone else get
annihilated right so that meansthere does need to be a certain
rate of new civilizationscropping up getting You know
cold and then all the remainingcivilizations being able to
witness that and this ispossible I mean this could
happen.
We've only been able to reallydo radio astronomy for example
for what a hundred years now Somaybe it's the case that every,
(12:24):
two, three, four hundred yearsthis happens and any
civilization that happens tohave the technology to detect
this but doesn't quite have thetechnology to make themselves
noticeable are just the luckyones.
They get to see this happen andthey know to shut up.
Or like you said, it's possiblethat it's just every
civilization gets annihilatedeventually because one of the
issues with the dark foresttheory is that you really can't
stay hidden on the galacticscale.
You really can't hide life on aplanet.
(12:46):
I think a lot of people imagineour radio signals and our
broadcast signals are what givesus away.
But those actually are prettyunlikely to be discovered by an
alien civilization, at leastright now.
And that's not the biggestgiveaway that there's life on
Earth.
Actually, our atmosphere isgoing to be the biggest giveaway
that there's life on Earth.
One of the ways that SETIactually looks for alien life
and something that an advancedcivilization Would be able to do
(13:07):
much better is we will actuallytake a spectra of the atmosphere
of a planet when it's passingbetween its star and our
telescopes and by the way, theLight from that star gets
shifted as it passes through theatmosphere.
We can figure out the chemicalcomposition of the atmosphere of
that planet and we can look forthings like high oxygen content,
for example Because oxygen is afairly volatile element.
(13:28):
It's very reactive.
So it's actually pretty rare tohave high concentrations of
oxygen on rocky planets, forexample.
'cause it typically getssequestered in the form of like
oxides, like iron oxides.
Mm-hmm So if you see a planetwith high oxygen content, it's a
dead giveaway.
That planet probably has life,
Lucas (13:42):
at least plant life.
Jacob (13:43):
Yes.
At least plant life or Some typeof life,
Lucas (13:45):
Yeah, some type of life that converts something into
oxygen.
Exactly,
Jacob (13:49):
because it has to be a constant, reoccurring process,
and there aren't many, or as faras I know, there might not be
any natural processes for thisto happen.
So that means, if there is somealien intelligence looking to
eliminate any life in thegalaxy, they already know Earth
has life.
that leads to one possibility,right?
If this is true, if the darkforce theory is true, And
there's an event specieseliminating any lesser species.
(14:10):
It must be the case that atleast basic life is very common.
Because otherwise, the life onEarth would have been eliminated
a long time ago.
But if you imagine a situationwhere maybe basic life is very
common, then these biomarkers oflife would be all over the
galaxy.
And there's too many of them toefficiently go and kill all of
them.
But if intelligent life is veryrare, then that's the only
situation where the dark forcetheory makes sense, is that
(14:32):
basic life must be common,intelligent life must be very
rare.
Lucas (14:35):
Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
they would be looking not Notjust for life, but for signs
that life is advancing in a waythat they could get to the point
that higher civilization isright now.
Exactly.
And actually become a threat.
we could build a Dyson Swarm andthen get blown up 20 years
later.
Yeah, that,
Jacob (14:53):
or we could just get annihilated, down the road
because if they're constantlychecking the spectra of planets
that can harbor life, they mightbe looking for certain key
compounds that indicate thatindustry has happened.
In that planet.
If you see a sudden spike incarbon dioxide, for example,
maybe that would be a sign ofhey, you know, over the past
hundred years, this planet hashad an unprecedented spike of
carbon dioxide or othergreenhouse gases.
(15:14):
Let's send a dark force striketo them just to be safe.
Lucas (15:16):
Yeah.
Yeah, absolutely.
Or they saw evidence of ussplitting the atom and they were
like, okay.
It's time to go.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jacob (15:23):
Yeah.
It's very possible there'scertain compounds that are made
once that happens.
And once that's detected, maybe,these, horde of, robot
intelligences go up.
That planet needs to go.
Lucas (15:32):
They could be on their way right now.
They're just a thousand yearsout.
Jacob (15:35):
Yeah, exactly.
Lucas (15:37):
But yeah, no, it's all part of the fun.
Jacob (15:39):
Oh, is it fun?
I don't know.
Lucas (15:42):
Now, but talking about all that doom and gloom, there
is a little bit on the brighterside.
Personally, I don't think thatthe Dark Forest Theory would be
a viable solution to thisparadox.
And I feel like you feel thesame, Jake.
Jacob (15:54):
Yeah, I do.
I think it has a lot of issues.
I think the one I proposed ofroaming von Neumann probes are
the most likely solution, butthat also has a couple of
problems with it, too, in thesense that I wouldn't have
expected Life on Earth to get asfar as it has already if that
was the case.
Lucas (16:08):
Yeah.
the biggest issue that I findwith it is that as we progress
as a civilization, we becomeless violent.
Okay.
So You would have to assume thattrend would continue and that
trend would then assuming thatall life, grows up the same way,
which it might not, but assumingthat all life would grow in the
same way culturally as oursdoes.
(16:29):
then we would assume that asthey progress, and as we become
a more unified planet, we wouldhave those thoughts of violence
less and less, and a highercivilization right now might not
even have thoughts of claim andviolence.
Jacob (16:44):
Okay, I see where you're coming from.
And I can see some logic behindthat, or some rationale behind
You would think as acivilization gets larger and
tries to undertake largerprojects like developing an
orbital economy, branching outinto space, they would need more
collaboration.
I think we're going to needsignificant levels of
international collaboration tosignificantly colonize our solar
system.
(17:04):
So perhaps you're right That's anecessary prerequisite to
advance to the stars, is tobecome less violent, less
tribal.
is it universalizable?
To an extent, I think so, maybe,unless you have a violent hive
mind out there that Yeah, or
Lucas (17:17):
you could have warrior cultures that pride themselves
on killing and sacrifice, andthey've advanced in some way.
I
Jacob (17:24):
think that's actually pretty unlikely, Yeah, but it
Lucas (17:26):
is a possibility.
Jacob (17:28):
Is it?
I don't know.
I have a hard time imagining awarrior culture like the
Klingons from Star Trek couldactually become space faring.
Even in the lore of Star Trek,the Klingons weren't always
warrior like.
they developed significantlybefore they became like that.
And I think even their warriorlike antics are contained to
very specific things.
The majority of the populationis not going around and
murdering everyone anytime.
Lucas (17:46):
No, that, that is true.
the reason why I say that couldbe a possibility is I imagine a
solar system where there'sintelligent life that develops
side by side.
You could have spacefaring warsbetween the neighboring planets,
which could then drive theirtechnology even farther and more
advanced because war doesadvance technology in most
cases.
Jacob (18:05):
I guess that's true, or at least in humans it does,
because it's the only time weactually put a lot of money
behind R& D.
That's not necessarilyuniversalizably true.
You might have a species thatjust values research and just,
Dedicates a significant portionof its version of a GDP to
research anyways.
Lucas (18:20):
Yes.
And just to be clear, I do agreewith you that it is probably not
likely, but it's not impossible.
I guess it's
Jacob (18:25):
not impossible.
I do think it's, yeah.
And that's the thing with thedark force theory in general,
people like to argue, I've madeseveral posts about this on
threads, and the generalargument is that It's unlikely
that civilizations would advanceto then still be a violence, but
my argument to that is alwaysyou only need one.
You only need one civilizationto get spacefaring technology
that decides to eliminate anyoneelse underneath them to have a
(18:46):
dark force state.
Lucas (18:47):
That is true.
Jacob (18:48):
So even if it's incredibly rare that does
happen, it only needs to happenonce.
So it depends how common lifeis.
Lucas (18:55):
Yeah.
there could be a section in ourgalaxy that is currently
experiencing a dark forest,right?
But, perhaps then there is evenanother filter that could weed
them out.
Yeah.
And then we're in multipledifferent, theories for, or
solutions for the Fermi Paradox.
Jacob (19:11):
Absolutely.
I will also say too, an issuewith the Dark Forest Theory is,
I went into kind of the gametheory behind it at the
beginning of the episode.
And mathematically that kind ofworks on paper, but There are
some significant issues, one ofthem I briefly touched on, which
is that, there is a significantrisk to you performing a dark
force strike to trying toeliminate abutting civilization,
is that one, you're identifyingyourself, it's really hard to
(19:33):
launch something like thatwithout being seen by others,
and two, you have to be 100percent certain that your dark
force strike is going toeliminate that civilization, or
else you've now just, increasedthe likelihood that they're
going to retaliate.
You've taken a huge risk and ifyou can't guarantee 100 percent
success, is it worth it to takethat risk in the first place?
And that's the type of map thatevery civilization would be
(19:53):
running.
And because of light delay, youhave no idea what that Species
is like when you actually, yourrelativistic missile reaches
there.
Lucas (20:01):
Yeah.
Jacob (20:01):
So it could be the case, that you're looking at the
civilization, they're 300 lightyears away.
You're a hundred percent certainthat, if you fired your RKV
right now, and hit their sun, itcould eliminate them.
But can you be sure that when itactually reaches there in 300
years, they haven't advancedmore than that?
Lucas (20:15):
yeah, it definitely is, a massive risk at that point when
you do think about it
Jacob (20:19):
and.
Can you be sure there's not somemore advanced civilization than
you, also, looking for peoplefiring these types of, weapons.
And the minute you fire yours,they might be firing theirs at
you.
like we said, we touched onearlier, you've now identified
yourself to the whole galaxy asa risk.
Lucas (20:33):
Exactly.
they could have just beenindoctrinated into, A galactic
security type of thing whereit's just mutually assured
safety.
Yes.
Amongst everybody.
And then the new guy comes intothe room and starts launching
missiles.
Yeah.
They're gonna be like, dude, getrid of him.
Jacob (20:47):
Yeah, exactly.
Lucas (20:48):
Get him out of
Jacob (20:49):
here.
I do think the notion of sometype of intergalactic community
is actually pretty unlikely tolight delay.
Having any type of coherentLarge body that spans a galaxy.
It's just it's not doable in myopinion.
This goes also with colonizationBut even with alien species, I
think it's unlikely you're gonnahave any type of Wide scale
communication or coordinationbecause how could you?
Lucas (21:10):
Yeah we could think of it this way as that super advanced
civilization that came a millionyears prior They don't
communicate with any of theplanets but they do ensure the
mutual safety of them.
Jacob (21:21):
One way you could, somewhat go about this is it
won't be coordinated in the wayyou're thinking of an
intergalactic, Security force.
But it could be the case thatwhen we launch into space and we
start expanding, we get amessage from a more advanced
species, or maybe several ofthem, that says, Hey,
congratulations, welcome to thegalaxy.
You are allowed to expand 200light years, maybe 1, 000 light
years, from the radius of yourhome planet.
(21:42):
That is your volume of space,and everyone is going to
immediately target you anddestroy you if you expand any
further than that.
That's the space you get.
please put up some markers.
maybe a giant broadcastingstation that says, this is my
area.
And if you expand beyond that,then you've become a target for
everyone.
Lucas (21:57):
Yeah.
See a galactic community thatnever sees each other, but gets
a singular message.
Yes.
to let us know that they arethere.
I feel like that would beprobably the most realistic
thing that we could look, to,coexisting with alien life.
Jacob (22:11):
yeah, I agree.
And the irony of that isactually how dark force here on
Earth actually work.
predators, they mark theirterritory.
And the reason you do that isyou're telling any would be
attacker of your same species oranything like hey, this is my
territory and that's going todissuade a majority of them who
decide they don't want to dealwith the fighting because it's a
huge risk in nature to actuallyhave a battle because if you get
(22:34):
injured it's death and it's kindof the same thing in space right
if you try to take over a regionof space you're also risking
yourself getting injured andmaybe in a dark forest state
galaxy taking a significant blowyou It might not kill you, but
now you've become significantlyweakened and there's a risk
other people are going to attackyou now.
So by just announcing yourpresence saying, I'm taking this
volume of space, it's mine, thatcould be enough for someone to
(22:55):
say, it's not worth it to expandinto that space, even if it
would be beneficial to me, it'sjust not worth the risk,
Lucas (23:00):
which, would definitely be much more.
of a safe route, it's justestablishing that communication,
marking our territory to others,would be something that would
have to be understoodthroughout.
So it would need thatgeneralized message.
Jacob (23:15):
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
Maybe some type of beacon thatjust announces it.
And we don't see anything likethis though is the only problem
is you would expect thesebeacons to work on some form of
electromagnetic radiation.
I guess people always say, ah,maybe they use.
some form of communication thatwe don't know of.
it's not impossible.
If you're a tribe in the Amazon,you might look around and say,
there's no other civilizationbecause you can't detect radio
(23:35):
waves.
I don't know if I fully buy thatthough.
I don't know.
There could be maybe some formof, extra layer of physics that,
enables communication that we'reunaware of that maybe is
beneficial on galactic scalesthat we haven't discovered.
And maybe when we develop thattechnology, we'll find that we
actually are surrounded byaliens.
but I do actually personallybelieve that's probably not
likely.
Lucas (23:52):
Yeah, I mean, I like to buy into the thoughts that we're
just scratching the surface ofAnything that science can offer
us because that's how sciencealways is Do you think that we
understand it and it's never thesame a hundred years later?
I have no evidence to supportthat wouldn't continue, right?
So, you know, I will buy intothat but then of course on the
other hand we have to try tounderstand and rationalize these
(24:16):
theories with what I do knowcurrently.
so I do see both sides of that.
Jacob (24:19):
it could be the case that maybe the whole galaxy is
communicating with gravitationalwaves, which is something that,
is real and can be manipulated.
And maybe it turns out that'smore efficient over long
distances.
And some technology allows thatto be a way we communicate.
Because right now, Humans candetect gravitational waves, but
we can only detect massiveevents like two black holes
colliding.
(24:40):
So maybe, all thesecivilizations have discovered an
efficient way to send messagesthat way.
And that's how they have tocommunicate.
And we just can't detect thosesignals with the right level of
fidelity.
It definitely could be.
And that's just one example.
maybe there's some other stufftoo.
We don't really understand darkmatter, dark energy.
maybe there's something that canbe done with that, or maybe
there's a level beyond that.
Lucas (24:55):
Yeah.
it is just like, these are alltheories for, things that could
work that way but another reasonwhy I don't.
Feel like the dark forest theorywould be a real thing is because
watching our civilization andhow we have Eagerly thrown our
information into space on ourvoyagers, we've put our
understanding of physics and thecoordinates to our planet
(25:17):
specifically in the universe.
We have SETI whose entire job isto try and find alien life and
which then would reveal us whatpoint do we just completely
shift and go?
Oh.
Stop all that.
We're just going to hide.
Jacob (25:30):
Yeah, I know.
I agree with that.
And there's this axiom instatistics that says if you only
ever have one datum point andyou need to extrapolate off from
that data point a much largerset, you should always assume
that data point comes from anaverage because it's much more
likely to represent an averageresult than an outlier.
I think, with what you said, weshould look at what humanity is
doing, and it's not anunreasonable assumption to think
(25:51):
aliens would do the same thing.
And, I think naturally, ifyou're going to be a spacefaring
civilization, you have to be atleast somewhat curious to
develop science in the firstplace.
So I think, yeah, why wouldn'talien civilizations also
announce their presence and tryto find other ones out there?
Lucas (26:04):
Yeah.
even with us, I feel that humansand our planet are, particularly
violent.
Jacob (26:10):
I think what I said also applies here.
We should assume humans areabout an average level of
aggression.
any alien civilization has alsohad to go through natural
selection, evolution, predation,so I think it's reasonable to
assume we're not.
Uniquely violent.
We're probably averagelyviolent.
Lucas (26:24):
Okay.
Yeah.
No, that, I do agree with that.
we are averagely violent, right?
but we are violent.
but yet we still go into thisnew frontier.
and what could be newcivilizations with an eagerness
instead of a fear.
Jacob (26:41):
I think so.
Yeah.
Lucas (26:41):
And I just feel like that.
We'll never naturally shiftunless like we talked about
before, we saw evidence of lifeon a planet and then one day it
just went out.
Jacob (26:50):
Yeah, that or, maybe as we develop technology, we start
finding signs of ruinedcivilization.
At that point, we might say, allright, guys, we got to be quiet.
something's going on here.
A lot of civilizations arefalling, shut it all down, shut
it all off.
Lucas (27:02):
Yeah, but then you also have to assume if we are an
average, and other civilizationsdeveloped like us, who started
it?
Jacob (27:09):
Yeah.
Lucas (27:09):
who was like, oh, there they are.
Let's launch the first missileand get this whole thing going.
It's just, it just seemsunlikely to me.
Jacob (27:16):
Yeah.
No, I agree.
I agree.
The Dark Forest Theory, it'sgood food for thought.
It makes a great book, The ThreeBody Problem, if you haven't
read it, that series, the secondwhich is literally called The
Dark Forest.
And while it didn't invent thistheory, it didn't make it
popular.
it was a great book.
I liked it but I think reality,it's not, I believe the most
realistic solution to the FermiParadox.
Lucas (27:34):
No, it is one of the most exciting though.
It is.
Thanks for good books.
It does.
It's a great, yeah.
Jacob (27:39):
Tells a wonderful story, I think.
Lucas (27:40):
Yeah.
Jacob (27:41):
All right.
Lucas, I think we both havesimilar feelings in the dark
forest This was an interestingdiscussion.
Hey before you guys close out ofyour players of choice.
I want to let you guys know thatas we are approaching our 10th
episode, Lucas and I want tomake an additional episode of
sort of like an AMA, get to knowus and all that, that we will
release after episode 10, butbefore episode 11.
So if you have any questions forus, whether it's personal
(28:02):
questions about Lucas or me, ifit's questions regarding
anything on science fiction,futurism, questions about
previous episodes, questionsabout the podcast itself, just
let us know.
Leave it in the comments ofwhatever platform you're on, I
check all of those.
If the podcast platform you'reon doesn't allow comments, check
out our threads, I'm gonna put apost on there, so that you guys
can leave your questions, andthose will be answered in that
episode.
And like I said, that's notgonna replace episode 10 or 11,
(28:24):
it'll be released the Monday inbetween.
please leave your questions,we're eager to get to know you
guys a little bit better.
And I think it'd be a great wayfor you guys to get to know Wes
personally.
Lucas (28:33):
And it'll be fun.
Jacob (28:34):
Exactly.
thank you so much for joiningus.
Please stick around to the endto hear our author spotlight.
Lucas (28:39):
Thank you all so much.
Bye bye.
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