Eurodollar University

Amazon announced today it will be cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, though leaker reports say the real number will be roughly 30,000 over time. The company itself says it needs to be more nimble to leverage AI technology when the timing and the target instead shows macroeconomic headwinds are behind the move. There is a reason why consumers believe the US economy is in recession right now. While layoffs like Amazon’s remain r...

Another day, another significant borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s repo facility. This has become a regular occurrence and concurrent with a rise in money market rates due to the cash squeeze I told you about yesterday, there’s a lot of similarities to 2019 and it’s got the Fed on track to not just cut rates this week also possibly terminate the balance sheet runoff – even if Steve doesn’t quite agree.

Eurodollar Univers...

The ongoing cash squeeze in money markets is very likely to bring an end to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff, known as QT. When the FOMC meets this coming week, officials are almost certainly going to cut rates given the perilous situation in labor. But with financial firms still using the Fed’s repo facility and especially as benchmark money rates stay elevated, the second item on the list of decisions is going ...

The dollar is making another big move higher to the point it is causing governments and central banks around the world to respond and even intervene to keep their own currencies from crashing against it. Fears over the global economic downturn are driving monetary tightness and demand for safety at the expense of those at the forefront of the broad decline. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

----------------...

We have a couple more names to add to our fast-growing list of shadow banking casualties. And, yes, collateral is once again the common theme. One of them is of course in subprime auto financing, but that’s just another canary in the credit coalmine. The other has been accused of fabricating half a billion of collateral invoices. Half a billion. Fake collateral.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

------------...

After a truly epic run, precious metals are now getting pounded. Both gold and silver are down the past few days for a couple of reasons, not that this is a surprise. In fact, I told you just six days ago this was the most likely short run path for the metals. So, what’s driving the selloff and does it change the long run outlook for either?  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

-------------------------------...

There was action yet again at the Fed’s repo window today. A few more billion borrowed. But that’s now the fourth time over the last five trading days. These are more signs of tightening monetary conditions and if this does continue it will lead to the next QE from the Fed. The word that keeps coming up the past few months is escalation. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://eurodollar.university
Twi...

Why is copper-to-gold so ugly and thoroughly deflationary? What's happening right now inside China is one key part of it. After a small artificial rebound earlier this - where have we heard that before - Chinese bank lending has fallen even more sharply this summer adding yet another layer to the tremendous deceleration we keep seeing across China this summer. Retail sales fell yet again and investment is crashing. 

Eurodol...

Even I am surprised at how quickly this has escalated. We got a big-time warning from the oil market earlier in the week. Whenever we see these things show up, usually there’s a little back and forth, in and out, the thing starts out as a little blip and stays that way for awhile. Then, maybe, you get a bigger move much later on. Not this time. The oil curve blew way past all of that in just a few days.

Eurodollar Universit...

Two US regional banks rocked the markets with more potential loan losses tied to private credit and shadow banks. But it is NOT really about them or the scale of those defaults; they are relatively tiny. It's what continues to be uncovered, the common COLLATERAL thread in every single one so far. Combined with a very precarious macroeconomic and monetary background, it's explosive. 

They are encompassed by the secrets behin...

Silver has gone absolutely vertical, even more than gold has. There is an historic squeeze going on in the silver market, centered in London. It started out driven by gold but the whole thing has been upended by imbalances in supply and the locations from where demand is coming from. How far can silver go? What’s really going on with it? And what should we expect next? Why does the matter for a whole lot more than the prec...

With one quote, JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon created a mini-firestorm even if in this case, anyway, he was just saying what everyone is thinking. On JPMs earnings call yesterday, Dimon reportedly said, “I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach there are probably more” in relation to the bankruptcies that have popped up recently. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

--------------------------...

It’s not just the $2.3 billion that allegedly simply vanished; it’s how and maybe most important of all, why. Second guessing collateral this way does not end well. Especially since this does not appear to be a one-off case of embezzlement and outright theft, rather a relatively large company which made some bad choices pressured into doing so by the economy and given the opportunity by less than ideal protections and secu...

Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren't really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday...

The growing macro bust in housing has become serious enough even the Fed is letting the public know officials are talking about it. I keep telling you that when central bankers see it too, you know it isn’t good. The Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, the FOMC, released the minutes of its meeting last month, the one where policymakers decided to dip back into the Pringles can with a single twenty five-bp rate cut. 

Eurodo...

Germany’s auto production absolutely crashed, falling by almost 20% in just a single month. This becomes the latest stark warning about the direction of the global economy coming from the car business. And that report on production was corroborated by Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Ferrari, all of them reporting results and forecasts this week that have sent their stocks plunging. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...

Another major central bank panicked today into a 50 bps rate cut, just as markets have been predicting. Not only that, officials at that bank said they’re ready for more as ultra-low rates are back within reach already. The Pringles can is far from empty even though central banks around the world would like you to believe they are in a good place. On the contrary, rate cuts really are like pringles – once central bankers s...

Repo fails have jumped to more than $320 billion as of the final full week in September, the highest since the very start of January. More importantly, the timing. While there are technical reasons for rising fails, they have been increasing since the first week in August, right when the July payroll report came out. There’s also been substantial selling of foreign reserve assets, an enormous amount which likewise is timed...