Eurodollar University

After another month of even more deeply troubling banking data from China, S&P is wondering if the Chinese may be facing their Japanification moment as a key central bank rate just moved to a record low. Now, I don’t think they’re facing it; China is clearly there and the latest data confirms as much. The time scale is different, but when you’re talking about the biggest banks in the world – and the top four are all Ch...

Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don’t explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll ...

We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we’re good now. That’s what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls. 

Eurodollar U...

The UK’s Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that’s not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can’t wait to throw it out of office.

Eurodollar Uni...

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Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to pre...

It was a trio of reports that turned an already shaky market into a disorderly mess. Private credit stocks were hit hard as were cryptocurrencies after ADP, Challenger and a delayed release from the BLS each overwhelmed expectations. Just more negative fuel to the selling fire as the riskiest financial markets were reeling from the economic implications.   

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly g...

Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can’t afford to pay more. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today’s session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we’re seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who’s apparently called “the hat.” It’s the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that’s what’s happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how ...

A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we’re talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it’s not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were...

Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can’t. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That’s not unlikely, it is impossible and I’m going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor mar...

Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal’s price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn’t a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works...

After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won’t be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic mea...

One of BlackRock’s private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about ...

An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn’t just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I’ve told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that’s not the only thing. That’s where it starts, ...

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning we shouldn’t be focused on trade wars, instead the real concern is capital wars. In those, Dalio says there will be a reduced appetite for owning US government debt or any US assets. Maybe even including American stocks. The comments were made in the context of recent geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela and Greenland. As always, there’s a lot of noise surrounding this kind of top...

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A huge arctic blast, the weather wedge, has sent natural gas prices soaring in historic fashion. Some futures prices surged by a whopping 75% in just five days leading up to what people are calli...