Eurodollar University

GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. 

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There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. 

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

Beige Book April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.go...

The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path...

The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CSPAN William Proxmire
https://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

Updates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the C...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

UST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, his...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

Higher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most cr...

Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the...

The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead?

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Met...

Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere. 

Eurodollar University's Money &am...

Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

Hawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing ...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

What if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of th...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

Oil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

Yet another blowout payroll number from the government. Even though the BLS's "other" employment estimates managed a sharp rebound on the month, the difference between the two has become intolerable. How do we know which one might be closer to reality? We make a bunch of...

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring

China's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first t...