Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
Episodes
President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Ra...
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% ...
UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious...
Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversight
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The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on.
Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van Metre
Signet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Results
https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-...
Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholz
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China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analys...
Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steam
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/...
Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine w...
Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of J...
Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus?
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-sa...
Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twit...
And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_...
European banks are not acting like either inflation is breaking back out or that the economy is going to be fine and hit its widely-expected soft landing. Instead, what they are doing is the other side of the weak euro. Both are further corroborated by the latest from France and especially Switzerland, with another warning coming from the Swiss on more than "inflation."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloo...
Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fox Canada’s Trudeau...
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
https://www...
There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-...
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